Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Apr. 10, 2009

Congratulations and a big Thank You!

I only regret having missed the first four and can imagine how an earlier connection would have benefited my portfolio.

Occasionally I use my ad and illustration experience pro bono — you get to feel good about your skills helping others each and every day.

Here's to the next five!

Congratulations Bill. You have the best financial blog on the net and your seasoned guidance and selfless integrity have nurtured a community that sees that value every day.

I have been here since the market decline about a year and a half ago. The bear markets seem to be the hardest to make money in. I can't wait to have access to this site when the markets are in full bull mode...

Thanks Bill for the call to Dow 10,000 when the markets were much higher. I got my parents and friends out of the markets(Dow 12,000-14000) because of you, but now they don't ever want to go back! They are happy and can sleep at night. I guess buy and hold is gone.

I am a trader so I am in and out, up and down, wrong and right, ALL the time. Thanks for all the community chats from the members!

Eventually when i get off the financial roller coaster, i will look to split my capital into growth (Nasdaq tech) and value (beaten up precious metals).

Congratulations Bill. Your unselfish work is First Rate, Top Drawer, Fantastic and numerous other adjectives. Like the many others who visit here, I am most appreciative of your blog.

I'm shocked, simply shocked to hear Goldman is thinking about issuing more shares. If Goldman is selling, do you want to be buying?

Can you imagine some of the other firms which have gone up 16% in recent days selling shares? Was this the plan all along? Pump and dump, with a little help from FASB?

http://tinyurl.com/dhtqem

I have been reading daily and occasionally contributing to the caracommunity blog for a a couple of years at least , your blog has opened my eyes to trading and what it is really all about . Thankyou for that insight Bill.

beat me to the question NYU, trying to psych the question of this dilution.

The banks wanna catch the herd while the euphoria continues?

If that be the case then they'd wanna keep pumping the BS to bring in the cash...

I'm a newbie but I'll take a stab and call that a bullish (i.e., the banks are bullish) signal!

I shouldn't be shocked, but I am anyway. Here we have someone basically confirming this whole earnings season is being stage managed by the Fed, the banks, and their lobbying group in Washington. You have to read between the lines, but its not very hard:

http://tinyurl.com/d8qg9h

Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results

Banks should stay silent because a focus on the tests would be “a harmful distraction” from earnings, said Scott Talbott, senior vice president for government affairs at the Financial Services Roundtable in Washington.

“It is premature for banks to talk about the stress tests,” Talbott said yesterday. “They aren’t finalized yet and there is no framework to evaluate the results.”

---------

This Scott Talbot fellow. He sounds very official at first glance. Who is he? Is he part of the Fed? After all, the Fed was giving orders to "keep mum." But why does he want us to stay focused on earnings?

Well if you look back in the news, about 20 days ago his title was different. He was "chief lobbyist for the Financial Services Roundtable, a trade association of the biggest financial firms." I wonder why Bloomberg changed his title? His first title was so much more descriptive of his ACTUAL ROLE - a lobbyist.

First this lobbyist wants you to watch earnings, and not get distracted from them. After all, that's the "good news" they've worked so hard to construct. Only then will come the Stress Test Results. After all, happy earnings news following a bad Stress Test Result won't pop the stock nearly as nicely, and there'd be no chance for a quick secondary offering.

This all reeks.

Happy 5th Bill, and many more, have a great weekend.

I also see you have updated the Cara 100 list, so I updated the help file instructions for Korvus's RSI tool to reflect the new changes.

http://caracommunity.com/content/rsi-tool

Vinod- Let's face it, sentiment is headed north. Why get in the way of a bull run? Let it run its course with OEX calls, then return to buying the puts.

http://tinyurl.com/cku33l

Les-

No, I don't trade the index, other than having had positions in FXI/FXP/FHKCS and/or CAF (A shares) in the past (and will in the future as well). One younger brother is an investment banker/lawyer in HK (living a life of decadence in Repulse Bay, of course), and for reasons unclear has never had an interest in playing the Hang Seng.

Anyone who trades in both the HK/US markets who picked up on the vibes in HK Thursday morning and rolled them over into pre-market positions in FAS would have, IMO, come close to a Hang Ten.

Bobbyo

This rally will end when it faces bad news and bad news wins. Lets say the balance sheet of the rally has an allowance for losses built in, that allowance was funded by fiat printed money. Eventually they will need to print more or the economic situation will burn through the allowance and investors realize that this will never work (central banking influence).

If you believe the central banking influence will trump the market and math, please buy more and hold more. If that was the case and they really could sustain their influence then IMO this market would be at 16,000 on the dow.

As of now, we rally on slightly good news and push past bad news. We will either no move up on good news or a bad news event will push us down, note I don't believe that news moves the market; I believe the market causes the news and "intervention".

Bob-

(a) Take a look at proudPapa's or Bill's numbers on the bear rallies in the thirties. I don't know what the 'stories' were at the time, but obviously they were all stories. 25% is pretty much in the lower range of how high traders can take it on the basis of 'stories.'

(b) Is it possible to trade a story? I doubt it. You're better off trading the reaction(s) to the story. Stories change all the time, but human reactions fall within familiar and predictable patterns.

(c) Even if you get the story right, you can wait years for a trading position based on getting it right to play out. You might even go broke, leaving you with bragging rights on the back porch instead of no-need-to-brag passing rights on the freeway.

(d) Colin Twiggs has 'contingency' targets on the indexes (eg, DJIA 9000, S&P500 1000). You can use those to inform your own thinking.

(e) Rather than think in terms of index targets, you can think in terms of sentiment targets. For instance, bearish sentiment is still quite high right now, but you can sense the pendulum picking up speed going the other way. When it gets bullish, you're closing in on the upside target. And it won't matter what the numbers are.

Hope this helps.

"The UGLY is now Pretty."

LOL, good one. Man, it was, too. I always preferred to find an empty classroom to study in. I donate regularly to one of the schools, but now I know why I get so many letters each year even from the College of LS&A. With 40,000+ students enrolled at any time, it's probably not that hard to spend billions.

"RE:> We all know by now that Task and Blodgett:

(a) know more than we do about the market
(b) have xlnt track records as traders
(c) put their pants on a little differently than we do"

No "we" do not, but it is a heads up I appreciate. I've listened to these two talk the talk and you suggest they can walk the walk as well.

Soros, I've listened to him once and ceased doing so. He was negative in sentiment the last time I listened and still making billions in the process. That's not advice that's going to help the little guy out.

Let's see what the talking heads have to say about the "stress" test Monday.

Ah good no market holiday Monday.

Pillzilla in addition to your post yesterday;
http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-...

Agree it probably had something to do with the press release just after the close, however I just noticed that a correction to that release was also issued at 6:01 PM. It seems the original release had a table showing ounces of "Gold" when it should have been ounces of "Silver". Makes quite a difference when you're talking about grades of 70 grams/ton. Will see if it makes a difference on Monday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CORRECTION-US-Gold-N...

"Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
And I'm wondering what it is I should do,
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,
Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

Well you started out with nothing,
And you're proud that you're a self made man,
And your friends, they all come crawlin,
Slap you on the back and say,
Please.... Please....."

OT- I've always wondered what that song was about. Now we know ;)

Les- Sorry, man. I left out the correct choice thinking it would be tacitly understood:

(d) None of the above.

(The problem with blogging is the absence of facial expressions/non-verbal cues/verbal nuances.)

I really don't know. I actually think Task is a competent reporter. But he's not an investigative reporter. Reporters do what they're good at, which is covering stories/breaking news/whatever. And we all know that by the time most things get reported, they're not actionable. Staying one step ahead requires reading clues, and making judgments based on them. Whereas reporters' hands are tied with 'trivial' matters such as verification of sources and information (LOL).

2nd
Either we have a correction of 10% and then proceed higher into May with a potential to tag the 200DMA somewhere in the SPX 950-1000 range. After that selling in May and go away
or?
we had a quiet day before holiday have a WFC announce good news, Reinstate uptick rule against shorts, Suspend mark-to-market, BAC needs to raise $35 billion, MS wanted to do a big secondary sale a week ago in high teens. Now they can do it at $25, GS wants to raise billions now they can do it with less dilution, everyone passes stress test now. What they are doing is pump the banks so they can release more shares to pay the tarp back.
So, I am trying hard to find what insider knows and is doing and play to win.
I have few short and oex put I brought yesterday. I might have to give back some out of 3.5k I made last week. Very soon I plan to put in 80% in market buying ETF. Will not buy 2x or 3x but one with holding listed. managing risk first and secondly making money. Next, have a sense of humor, drink some Kalick but it is not awailable in ma
Since I started playing market over year ago I learn a lot and I have no word to express my thank to Bill. Today is fifth anniversary of this blog and looking forward to celebrate 25th together someday.

Daughter needs a car. Naturally, we have to jump through hoops at the dealers. Does $18,777 out-the-door (ie, price+tax+license) for a 4-cylinder LE sound good?

vinod, who on Earth would buy into these bank offerings??? And who has money anyway? The SWFs must have learned their lessons. Who was it that invested into C - twice, at what price (LOL)?

Next thing we know the banks will convert back to investments banks.

BTW, straddles for this coming week are at http://straddles.nexalogic.com (with live prices as of next week :-) ) I am switching back to earnings straddles. Expect lots of surprises - either way.

Les,

I was watching the Barrett-Jackson antique and classic automobile auction last night on the Speed Channel. Several times they commented on the low prices as about half of what they expected based on one year ago.

One example I recall: someone had bought and stored a 35th Anniversary Limited Edition Corvette in a temperature /humidity controlled environment, original price was $35,000 — it brought only $37,000.

In his book, "How to Survive and Thrive in the Coming Wave of Deflation", A. Gary Schilling sees it as a boon to individuals. (Assuming you got out of the market or shorted it per his advice.)

He can be read occasionally at the Forbes website where he still recommends shorting and holding Treasuries. I am 40% in 10-year (mutual fund Whosx) and have been since 10-20-08. I plan to hold at least until job losses turn around. Until then I can't see how we can get any genuine inflationary trend no matter how much the Fed works at it. No consumer return to a borrow and spend mentality — little chance of much inflation.

We have too many cars, houses, shopping malls, office buildings and, worst of all, too many people for the job market.

I have a friend of forty years who is continuing his buy & hold in Vanguard Total Stock and Total Bond funds. Since the plunge all he has done is his usual annual re-balance to 60/40. He doesn't want me to suggest it, but I am convinced he should be using this rally to move to cash. Last time I mentioned any such thing he made it clear he doesn't even want to think about the market.

Last I looked VTSMX was down about 37% for 12 months! We are both retired and he is continuing to withdraw his 4% annually while keeping the faith.

I hope your brother-in-law is more open to at least considering change in strategy.

2nd
I going to study and read about P&F chart to see if I can understant it
thanks

look at the picture, you may be right about rally

a few days ago, I commented how Roubini had become the Paris Hilton of finance, darling of financial papprazzi

now he wants to shut Cramer up

Someone should remind the esteemed econo-bear that in the US, there still is a right to free speech, and people typically enjoy freedom after speech.

I never thought I would be offended by someone opposing Cramer.

Is this arrogance, conceit, fascistic tendencies? The guy gets a crisis right and he is now entitled to shut people up.

Roubini should be swamped by an avalanche of mail and calls telling him that his dictatorial muzzling of someone else’s mouth shall not be tolerated.

All the bear of the world may be right but out of sync with the market for the time being, it has gotten under his skin.

Cheap celebrity behaviour! like one starlet feuding with another over a part in a show.

What? Book signings have been cancelled? The speaking gig at such and such econo-gathering has been called off?

Let’s look at the bigger picture of the market

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_RNL6YmPeog4/Sd90zLb8o6I/...

I do not know what Monday brings, but this is is a good looking chart. What will Roubini do if market goes straight to 950 without a break? Issue arrest warrants for the bulls, because they do not see things as he does?

Educate people and they will treat bubble-crooks with objectivity of their own trained minds. Shutting people will create problems. It does not solve anything.

Shame! Shame!

this is a link to the story

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/08/ap/canad...

this is my first comment on Roubini

http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-...

Si02, was curious about CY straddle.

Talking about RIMM's next product offering, due probably in summer:

"Synaptics and Cypress (CY) are both rumored (reported on CNBC 4/3) to be key suppliers for the touch/QUERTY product, which should give them an extra bounce."

http://tinyurl.com/cbhnec

Anyone think CY'd release this information come earnings time on the 16th? That could be a profitable trade.

They release, it pops, they don't it drops

And I'll send you a fifth, quart or liter. Single malt? Say hello to Sir Sean for me if you bump into him.

If the stock does not move you'd be definitely holding a very dead strangle, regardless of volatility. Since this is expiration week, these plays are too dangerous. I do not like expiration week for strangles. These are very high risk very high gain, overall they might be profitable as a package, but it is not for the faint of heart.

The banks were obviously the place to be, the others are very risky, I am just tracking them as I do every month, and I do expect big moves given the market, but I am certainly not recommending anyone enter these.

The following two weeks will be great.

Les, another thing to keep in mind when choosing between SLV and SLW is whether you think the next major move in the stock market will be up or down (SLW tends to follow the general market to a much greater degree than SLV, which sometimes even moves counter to the market). So my switch from SLW to SLV is an indication of me becoming more defensive after the big Friday's move in the financials (which could have sent the last shorts for cover, opening the possibility for a new plunge down).

The US market should be open on Monday.

2nd -
No knowledge of the business cost but on the Rachel Maddow show they had a SF reporter saying that one of the bigger impacts of this outage was no 911 for affected residents.
I'd say in an area that populated an extended outage of 911 services could be worth well more than a six figure dollar amount.

http://tiny.cc/kO0qf

I am not able to find the link on the sidebar in order to download the KGC report. How do I access the sidebar? Thank you for your help.

Thanks for a great post, davefairtex!

Sorry shiva, never played RIM, they were always too expensive. Last earnings season there were several big winners (AMZN, AKAM,...). Posted many time on this in the past. For indexes, IWM is my favourite, but there is no earnings play on that.

GS: Some folks here might like this site: http://www.goldmansachs666.com/

Latest post there: "Edward Liddy, CEO of government-run AIG, still owns more than $3 million of stock in Goldman Sachs, which has pocketed $13 billion or more of the $170 billion federal officials have spent bailing out the ailing Wall Street insurance giant."

hmmm corvette's I don't like. Could I import a mustang for a similar price?

Mustangs are lower also from what I observed. They had several.

The one I would really have liked was a black 1941 Cadillac sedan with 22,000 original miles. No restoration and none needed. Interior looked like no one had very ridden in it. I don't remember for sure, but I think it went for $18,000.

In 1993 I bought the car I wanted to buy when in 1955 — a 1947 Ford coupe, black with wide whitewalls, dual spotlights, bumper guards, back up light, fender skirts, original radio, 66,000 total miles from the original owner. It had every factory option available.

I kept it for a few years and sold it for what I paid — $9,000. In '55 I couldn't afford the $400 and so my very first car was a 1946 Ford Tudor for $150 (they actually spelled like that).

That is pretty poor on their part to botch the release like that.

However, like 2nd so graciously reminded me on Thurs, any profit is good and I should not complain about those trades. So, I will take my 7% and be happy regardless of where she goes Monday. I have been advised to be short term bearish on the miners by those who know the area far better than I, so I will head their warning for now.

Grym,

Summers has nothing to gain from telling the truth. He is just as bad as Grahmn and he is way wrong.

Later this summer a treasury auction will be a "bust".
Media will state, move along here, nothing more to see, all is good, keep moving. The next time that won't go so well for markets.

Don't worry, the USD won't crash then.

A full page add this size in any of the major newspaper would cost close to $15,000.00.
I'm not sure what Bill charges to advertise here.

EDC-

The average investor (which would include me) cares about market analysis to the extent it helps his bottom line. Beyond that, most of us have interests/priorities in our lives that leave little time for reading about/debating Cramer v Roubini.

Roubini, Prechter, and Cramer all have a right to voice their opinions. As do you and I. If I read you correctly, you are more or less convinced the market is (ultimately) headed down in a big way, and I respect your efforts to warn readers against being led to the slaughter. If I believed the same, I would do the same.

The fact that Roubini is a professor, and Cramer (in your words) an entertainer has little bearing, IMO, on the validity of their opinions. Cramer has legitimate trading experience in the capital markets, which I have to respect. Roubini is an economics professor who accurately predicted a meltdown in the financial markets, which I also have to respect. If I had the privilege of sitting at a dinner table with either one, I would for the most part shut up and listen. But I would probably also be left more or less with my own opinions unchanged.

Summers is playing on a different stage. If he in fact is saying that we'll be out of the unemployment woods in a month or two (your words), then he's trying to be Houdini.

As far as I know, predicting market movement is not a science. All of us are doing our best to wrap our arms around the market.

I think the current rally, whether or not it continues, is a bear-market rally until proven otherwise. My plan is to remain fully invested in the buy-and-hold half of my portfolio until sentiment (in my opinion) hits a bullish extreme- at which point I move to cash. The trading half- well, I plan to trade both directions as best I can.

One question your post brings up- what would you suggest the average investor who has seen a 40-50% loss in his portfolio do? Should he be selling into this rally? Playing this rally? Shorting this rally? Should he move into cash immediately (no hiding in bonds, right), and stay there until 'someone' (Roubini?) sounds the all clear? Should he move into cash and stay out of the markets now and forever more unless/until he takes the time to know what he's doing?

Roubini's call also brings up a question- do markets move on fundamentals? If that were the case, how did the DJIA make it up to 14000? If that was entirely an emotion-driven move, what about the mirror image? Might the market not already have overshot to the downside on an emotion-driven sell-off? In other words, what would it take to make Roubini 'happy?-' 5000? Does Roubini wake up one day, look at the carnage, and proclaim "That looks about right. I'm calling an end to the meltdown." (Not making fun of professors. My Dad was a professor.)

All of the above is well-intentioned food for thought.

2nd,

"Roubini's call also brings up a question- do markets move on fundamentals? If that were the case, how did the DJIA make it up to 14000?"

More i think about this, more i lean towards Soros theory of reflexivity. Its like market amplifies everything and eventually overcorrects.

> In other words, what would it take to make Roubini 'happy?-' 5000? Does Roubini wake up one day, look at the carnage, and proclaim "That looks about right. I'm calling an end to the meltdown."

I think Roubini will proclaim the end to the meltdown once he feels that the economy is within 6 months of the recovery. At this point, according to my I understanding of his writings, he feels that the economic recovery will start some time in mid-2010. So we might very well have another real plunge down in the summer/fall of 2009 (when people realize the implications of the double wave of new foreclosures resulting from "shadow" inventory being sold and from Alt-A/Opition-ARM resets), AFTER which the start of a new bull market will become much more probable.

I, personally, will start accumulating 6-month index puts once S&P goes above 900 as an insurance for the gains in the long-term core positions in my portfolio.

RE:>The one I would really have liked was a black 1941 Cadillac sedan

now you're showing your age Grym. I remember my uncle bought a 30's or 40's model Jaguar after his Alfa Romeo had been stripped by thieves (in his driveway during the night - what professionalism!)

ay ay ay what a tank it was. The oldies might look classy, but without power steering they're just not fun to drive.

2nd_ave -"Lawrence Summers, director of Obama's National Economic Council, said Thursday there have been no indications that investors are growing worried about the size of the deficits."

Oh my. That's a negative evidence fallacy - an "argument by lack of imagination." Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't happen - or even speak to its likelihood of happening. This reliance on negative evidence is the very type of thinking that opens us up to Black Swan events.

For instance, using this argument, one might also advise a fellow passenger that immediately after striking the iceberg, the Titanic appeared to be in fine shape, there was no evidence of any trouble at all, the crew had things well in hand, and one should head to the bar, get another drink, and enjoy the music.

Les - I'll be happy to drop the ETF and play the miner once PM's start to show some life again.

Alas, I am an investor in the PM stocks right now. I've had a not so nice ride down from 35 on GG. This stems from too much belief on my part in the impact of macro events like money printing and all that. I did prune back perhaps 35% and I got out of my synthetic long just in the nick of time on the way down, for which I am thankful.

I do notice however that GG's RSI is at 29.85, and KGC's RSI is at 27.19. Both look like they have at least some support at their current price levels. GG July 29's are going for $3.50, which means worst case you get GG at $25.50 3 months from now. I'd totally go for it if I wasn't short the July 30's that are now half a point underwater. :)

I haven't gone car shopping lately, but that sounds like a good deal. The invoice price I found at multiple places on the web is listed at $19,600.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/04/saturday-mornin...

Les - I also hold GSL - both with dicey country risk, but probably great allure for a real player to dip into. Good management at GSL too. Bill likely has met the Pres. there. Happy Trading

2nd - Toyota has really been working on pricing lately, that's a great price on a Camry but hard to say for sure without knowing how loaded the car is. I've never been a fan of having a 4 cyl in a larger car like that, would be looking at the V6.

Personally, I like the 1.8l Corolla if I were interested in economy, although I'd look at Honda as well. The Subaru's and the Hyundai rate highly: 1) Hyundai 2) Honda 3) Subaru/Toyota. Of course I'd look at what Ford is offering as well, although prices didn't seem very competitive this past winter.... Maybe that's changed.

Did anyone listen to Donad Coxe's conference call on Friday 10???

Regards

2nd—Ave,

"One question your post brings up- what would you suggest the average investor who has seen a 40-50% loss in his portfolio do? Should he be selling into this rally?

I don't know about the average investor, but if we're including all who are now in company 401(k)s think they are mostly clueless and only go by the MSM crap — Newspapers, Money Magazine, CNBC, etc. I am guess very few "average" investors know who Roubini is.

I sincerely believe the overall conditions in the US are as bad as the 1930s and in some ways worse. Globalization means we are nowhere near as much a closed system as we were back then. Instant info (real and fake) travels at the speed of light increasing. The 1930s saw us still growing as a manufacturing giant and WW2 pulled us out due to that fact. We no longer make enough things the world wants and so, in place of the private sector jobs of the 1940s (filling gov. orders) we now have make believe value given to bank assets and handouts to states with so many strings they re not going to do didily for our job losses.

I expect repeated rallying rising on hot air — like this week's bank valuation of the crap they are holding and the opaque stress testing. There can be no real trust in the system by savvy traders and investors as long as
the banks are maintained as a special category of accounting.

"Roubini's call also brings up a question- do markets move on fundamentals? If that were the case, how did the DJIA make it up to 14000?"

About the only thing I can agree with Keynes on is, "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Eventually the truly "free market" always prevails, but look at the Soviet 70+ years experiment with top down micro-management.

"...what would it take to make Roubini 'happy?-' 5000? Does Roubini wake up one day, look at the carnage, and proclaim "That looks about right. I'm calling an end to the meltdown."

I don't think this is the right question. I doubt Roubini is "happy" to make his assessment — just being frank — right or wrong.

What he is saying seems abundantly clear and reasonable to me. I expect a very long flat time like I experienced in the late 1960s to around 1980. I'm often given my rational for holding Treasuries, but when I was earning an income independent of my investments I used to make big bets on my margin account — not now.

BTW, I see Roubini and Cramer as apples and oranges.

Coxe did not have a teleconference on 4/10/2009. He returns next week FWIW.

I believe he mentioned last week that he would not have a call this week.

On the road, up in Minnesota for the weekend . . . checking in.

Always keeping an eye open when traveling . . . Looking back at local economic conditions over the last 2 months . . . restaurant businesses in most locations are hurting as a number of us know. . . regularly crowded restaurants where you usually have to wait 20-40 minutes to be seated have no problem immediately sitting you today in a Chicago or Minneapolis or a number of cities. . . business travel cut back, less conferences, conventions, etc. having their impact . . . however, recall a recent stopover at SFO where I met with some local friends for dinner . . . a number of restaurants near the airport were jammed packed, waiting lines the norm . . . settled in a very crowded bar area of a restaurant after providing a party name to await an expected table in 30 minutes per the host . . . we decided to eat at the bar area instead.

Perhaps there were some big conferences that Thursday night in the SFO area (although there were many locals) , but it seemed so different from other parts of the country - -- - perhaps an local economic tell.

That said, recently read an article (WSJ?) listing the biggest drop in metro real estate prices and San Francisco was down 32.5%. Maybe only the banks are selling their foreclosures?

There may be a couple of pockets of economic strength or recovery out there
but most areas are still hurting . . . we'll all have to keep an eye open.

(Will be back in the saddle Tuesday morning . . have a great weekend everyone)

I don't think Roubini or Cramer are any more correct or incorrect than a broken clock. Roubini wants to sell books, while Cramer is selling stocks. Neither of these guys are more concerned about anything other than their own self interests, I put more faith in my own assessments while recognizing my limited access to reliable data.

Some things never change.

Oh please, what did you expect? Your first post is an investment pitch in our community where you do not have a stake and have no reputation? To me that is like a cold call at dinner time, a piece of junk mail, or an emailed business offer from a guy in Nigeria.

Mark - Are you referring to the Tyler Durden article? Personally, if Tyler can't find a way to write in any understandable terms, I place him in the round file. Big negative. Second, we have to trade prices and the spin level seems to have exceeded all means of comprehension. Tyler is a dufuss if he's not trading prices. I don't need to hear a flurry of manufactured excuses rehashing the same ol same ol news about how levereged institutions can't afford to take a 1% hit because that translates to a 1000000% loss. So what, through his rear view mirror viewpoint he can't see the writing on the wall telling us where this is leading. The market already took it's hit and now Fiat will take a hit. We can count on this being an oscillatory process.

Distillation: My guess is Tyler has been on the wrong side of the trade the past couple of weeks, the Easter Bunny just crapped in the shorts baskets and now they're gonna cry about it for a while.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/

"That said, recently read an article (WSJ?) listing the biggest drop in metro real estate prices and San Francisco was down 32.5%. Maybe only the banks are selling their foreclosures?"

Seamus- No way. At least, not in the city of SF nor in the (immediate) surrounding counties. I know many younger colleagues/coworkers who have been waiting to pounce for the past two years, and prices just haven't gone down far enough. In my own Peninsula neighborhood, if we use Zillow as a measuring stick, home values are down about 25% from the peak. But any home that lists in that range gets snapped up. Applying numbers to metropolitan areas can be deceiving. It's like the micro-climates in the Bay Area-> drive a few miles and the weather can change dramatically- fog/50F in the Sunset, partly cloudy+wind/60 downtown, cool and windy/70 in San Bruno, full sun+slight breeze/80 in Palo Alto.

Next time you're looking for a restaurant around SFO, try Broadway Prime in Burlingame. Only 5-10 minutes by cab/car. It's a mini-version of the House of Prime Rib on Van Ness (owners used to work there).

Thanks for the observation. I'll add mine FWIW.
In the Greater Houston Metro Area the pinch has still not been felt. Any restaurant you drive by is packed with a wait list on almost every night, including Tuesdays and Sundays. Specifically, all the chain restaurants in the lower to mid level $$$ are packed around here. Chili's, Salt Grass Steakhouse, Joe's Crab, all the Pappa's derivatives. The more expensive ones like Houston's, Capital Grille, Truluck's Stone Crab, and Fogo de Chao are all very consistently busy as well.
Even though by stats this area has increased unemployment from 4.5% to 6.5% YoY, in my opinion this loss is due to the gangbuster house building that was going on - and has now ceased in large part. Home builders are still finishing (and selling!) houses in a subdvision South of downtown called Sienna Plantation - low $200K's and up. I don't see much new building in other areas.
As an aside, a good friend just sold his 5 yr old house located about 25 miles North of downtown in the Cypress/ Cy-Fair area for a small profit - low $100k's. He put it up with a realtor on Friday and sold it Saturday. I don't think that's the norm for Greater Houston but did find it interesting.

2nd,

My past 3 cars were 2 new Camry's and a Corolla. I gotta say, for a variety of reasons the Corolla is the better car.

Camry is roomier in the back seat particularly and if this is an issue then so be it. I almost never sit in the backseat while driving, so for me this is not an issue. Camry has a suspension that can be properly termed "spongy". Result is, it's more dangerous when doing tight corners/driving like an jerk:), but for me, these are considerations. Camry isn't underpowered per se, but let's call it "just adequately" powered.

Corolla on the other hand (and I'm talking all base models here) is several grand less money, Has a nice tight (proper for it's weight) suspension which encourages nice cornering characteristics, and is quicker than Camry
(anecdotal point here, don't know about the test track results, car feels quicker to me).

I understand if you want your kid in a bigger car for crash characteristic purposes, I feel though that there is an inverse relationship between weight/c-o-b and propensity for finding trees (not that Camry is bad in this way, I'm really talking SUV's here).

Now does anyone know anything about transmissions? While doing doughnuts basically with my Corolla on sand, I seem to have "loosened" the transmission, when the car shifts it now does so with a little bit of a "thud"? (automatic trans)

I know I gotta have this looked at. Any ideas?

A small venture capital company in San Mateo might be able to help you out. Note that the co-founders were on the founding team for Webvan, which is not that different from your business model:

http://tinyurl.com/c928xq

"Tandem's other co-founders - Sunil Bhargava and Joyo Wijaya - had a similar experience. They were on the founding team at Webvan, one of the biggest of the 1990s dot-bombs, an online grocer that raised hundreds of millions of dollars in financing before it collapsed and filed for bankruptcy in 2001.

"Visitors to Tandem's offices would not mistake Tandem for a big investment firm. The rooms are small and plain, without expensive artwork or furniture, in a motel-style office building in downtown San Mateo that's slung next to the railroad tracks.

"The amount of money Tandem invests in startups is also small - around $850,000 - and it only takes on as many companies as the three founders can comfortably handle."

Chicken,

What I'm talking about is what a novice would describe as a "loose" aoutomatic transmssion. Shifting from first to second, there's a distinct feeling/hearing the car shifing whereas it's supposed to be smooth. It's as though there's "slack", if you will. I'm gonna bring this in this week.

So we can anticipate AIG to report 1Q profits somewhere north of $100B ($180B less payouts)? They will exceed expectation as well...

Might as well put my two cents worth in as well 2nd.

Got a friend who established an insurance company for second hand vehicle retailers.

Toyota and Honda come out on top of the research compiled by his company for the purpose of insurance premiums.

Honda's are nonetheless cheaper to repair than Toyota's, apparently less time consuming in reparation. A thought for the eventual resale value

fwiw

"1) Without leverage, or if deleveraging continues (credit) what will happen to the velocity of trading (thus liquidity) in the markets? 2) Many of the large traders (GS types) do off market trading between they and other large traders. This is often referred to as the dark pools. If they take there liquidity elsewhere, what happens?"

1) I remember reading recently an estimate saying GS is levered around 1200:1. Just guessing... Without leverage, I would expect velocity of trading to decrease?

2) To which planet will the large traders take their liquidity, Saturn?

Alright, makes sense. I've been thinking about this (dangerous, I know). I remember Vad saying he likes to keep things simple, or something along those lines. I HAVE too, but also believe that is what works for me as a "trend trader". ( Not sure if that is even correctly named for what I try to do.)
Let's say that over the past few weeks the large players have slowly been going short while trading up prices on light volume. Now the music stops, and instead of being one chair short, all of a sudden, 75% of the chairs are missing? 3-4 days/3,000 pts. later the chairs are returned, the music starts, and all the retail/401k etc. players are toast.
My question is though, if HB%B pull this off, they kill a generation of investors, the market stagnates for 40 years. How do they benefit long term from this? Seems suicidal to me.

Sorry if this rambles a little. You all know I'm not the most articulate chap here.

now i see a reason why Vinod went to the bear camp :) Either way, we are getting close to a short term top, time to tighten stops & lighten positions

Perhaps it's time to go "steady"?

"Copper leads way as index reaches its highest this year

By Pan Xiaoyi | 2009-4-11 | NEWSPAPER EDITION

SHANGHAI shares rose nearly 3 percent yesterday, driving the index to its highest in almost eight months, led by nonferrous metal producers on higher copper prices."

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=397297&ty...

"Temasek digging for deals; may be eyeing Teck assets

Reuters

April 9, 2009

Singapore's Temasek is digging for deals in mining and oil, as it licks its wounds from financial sector investments that have soured in a global crisis. The state investor is eyeing "aggressively sized" resource assets and could do a deal in the $5-billion range, a source familiar with the situation said, declining to be identified due to the sensitive nature of such deals. Energy and resources make up just 5 per cent of Temasek's portfolio, worth 127-billion Singaporean dollars ($103-billion) at the end of November. Temasek may be looking at Teck Cominco Ltd., TCK.B which is scrambling to sell assets in a bid to raise cash to pay off a $5.8-billion (U.S.) bridge loan, the source said. TCK.B (TSX) rose 78 cents (Cdn.) to $8.75. "

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.2...

Pookster, No, I figured they'd go to DS9...sheesh. I believe some of the larger companies take their trading off market through private conduits, and there has been growth (relative of course considering the last year) in off market trading.

Try breadstreet.com to find investors. You can subscribe and post your proposal there.

Mark/bankchamp,

We use an exponential moving average with an alpha of 1/7 (Wilder smoothing for a 7-day period...the difference with a normal EMA is that the alpha in that case would be 2/(7+1) or 1/4). It technically includes information from way more than 7 days, but the old data has very little impact.

We also use "adjusted" close prices to compensate for splits and dividends...that can sway things a little.

Finally, if you look at weekly or monthly numbers, we do that differently than most. We get the series of close prices and take every 5th one for weekly and every 21st one for monthly. We decided that made more sense than using a weekly or monthly price series, especially if we are calculating the number daily.

Let me know if you have any more questions.

Jeff

Korvus,
Thanks for adding this functionality, would be of great use.

First part worked great.

Second part, expanding the marked thread did not work for me.

"This thread is on your thread ignore list. Click here to view this post.", When i click on the view post, nothing happens. I am using safari

nemo - Perhaps then we would be well advised to monitor for rumors of our holdings taking their businesses to the private market.

ALOHA !!

Oh yes ... HAPPY FIFTH, Bill!

Thanks for all you have contributed to the World of CAPITAL MARKETS and SOCIAL EQUITY! Keep up the great work!!

Lets do another five years! Man, five years went by fast! What happened? HA!!

By the way ... I have had my internet service cut for two days(storm) and I just got my DELL laptop back from the COMPUTER STORE and I had to buy a new hard drive! What's DELL trading at and why? HA!!

Good job BILL!!

Hmm, Australia.... I like the idea.

Bit dry for my liking Kaimu and probably going to get drier in future, but you've put me on the right track.

All the suits that work for British American Tobacco, medical device companies and Nestlé have pushed property prices to ridiculous levels where we live. I'm starting to think that I'd like to have our apartment ready for sale when the economy rebounds - that'd give me a few years to learn to live independently with trading as well.

But one doesn't need to go so far. Here in Switzerland there is still marginal real estate - the colder parts of the country not located on the lakes - that if predictions are correct will resemble the Mediterranean in the next what? 50 odd years.

The climate of the Med in the stability of Switzerland. It's an appealing thought for retirement, with a few acreages and some billy goats to boot.

David,
The ride down & ride up. both are happening pretty rapidly in this bear market (4 to 5 weeks, so paying for time value doesnt make sense to me). LEAPS are expensive, one strategy I am thinking of using is to load near month puts once we have seen a definitive break to south. If we are going to have another test of March lows, there will be plenty of opportunity to enter with near month puts, I dont mind missing the first 500 pts down....

ALOHA !!

WOW ... off a cliff is right!

Buckle? BJ? Hot Topic? Never heard of them ... We were just in Waikiki and walked the strip and I saw stores I never saw there before, but none of these listed. Even though I read tourism is down 17% my wife and I did not notice it! In fact there are more stores now not less in Waikiki and the Hilton just finished the WAIKIKIAN HOTEL, which is mainly timeshare based and it was packed and they still have yet to finish the landscaping there. One other condo complex that has been going for a couple years now is the TRUMP TOWER WAIKIKI and they(taxi drivers and Reef hotel workers)say it has funding, but it is taking a long time. The Hilton project is just as big and it started later than TRUMP and its already done! I think the TRUMP project is in trouble. I know what happens to owners when the schedule is extended or delayed ... Essentially the contractors have a field day with CHANGE ORDERS tied to EXTENDED OVERHEAD and maybe even the dreaded ... DEMOBILIZATION!! I guarantee TRUMP is up against all that and more! Ivana do your PR magic, quick ... your inheritance is on the line! Look ... Paris is winning!

How many articles did I read last year predicting that the high end stores like Neimans and Saks where the rich shop will hardly be touched? Many ... Now its Abercrombie&Ditch!

IT ALL WORKS ...

ALOHA !!

Well, the properties to the North of the State are drier(less rain), but have many artesian wells. The properties to the South are much more lush and green where rain is much more abundant.

Well then, I am open ... though the Swissie is down a lot it is not down as far as an Aussie, although the Aussie is catching up to the Franc. What can I buy in Swiss real estate now with my US Peso mate? When did the Swiss real estate peak or has it?

Another market I like is in New Zealand and the NZ Dollar is on the down low! Anyone here from New Zealand that can give us a gink? KIWIS?

Back in 1998 I flew to New Zealand to look at properties, but mainly in Auckland like the WaterMark and Prince's Wharf. What's up with all that? I am not sure but it seems these projects probably lost value and with the NZD down so much there could be some real buys!

Now I was never in Switzerland. I was in Austria ... I think New Zealand is very nice and in fact the South Island has the nickname the "Southern Alps". When we were skiing there we met all sorts of Europeans and even the US Olympic Ski Team! Reverse Winter ... When it is Summer in Europe it is Winter in New Zealand and the Southern Alps is happening!

Any KIWIS with any good NZ RE links?

Les, give me a SWISS RE link to view ... Thanks!

Kaimu,

That JGI site is making me positively salivate. I see now what you mean when, during our dinner at Luciano's at CTAB, you told me in detail about your lost 330k acre deal in '97....

My ultimate goal is to be down there by the time I'm 50 (10yrs from now), either in Oz or NZ.

It's gonna take a lot of successful trading to get there....

Here's a few NZ sites I came across:

http://tinyurl.com/c2ecgd

http://tinyurl.com/czuug8

Cheers,

-moj

Putting together all the pieces, this is what I see:

This Month:
* fed, government, banks pumping bank stocks
* fed & treasury money priming purchases of toxic assets based on current "eye of the storm" environment.
* foreclosure supply artificially low, supporting housing prices
* "green shoots" and "glimmers of hope" campaign bolstering confidence
* fear (greed) from investors about missing out on "the bottom"
* secondary offerings post earnings season, but pre stress test report
* big moves in individual bank stocks

May onwards:
* accelerating wave of defaults, started in Dec
* first lip of foreclosure wave (100% increase M-O-M) hitting in April, reported in May
* REO sales wave hitting in June/July
* continuing decline in tax revenues
* continuing increase in government spending
* lower retail sales, and continued massive job losses
* May GM bankruptcy

Foreclosures are now are widely appreciated to be at the root of banking troubles, and when the numbers jump by 100% month over month - and they will in May, as surely as the sunrise - asset sales should dry up, financials should eventually tank, and that will take the market along with them.

Its usually dramatic when "we're winning the war" turns into "The Tet Offensive".

The key for me will be to watch prices and indicators - especially effective volume - for signs of the turn ahead of time. Then it's back up the truck with SPY and XLF puts and GDX calls. Although XLF puts are awfully expensive. And perhaps straddles on TLT - which cost about $4 at the money 1 month out, but should pop when TLT breaks out of its 4 point trading range, but in which direction I could not say!

However based on my reading of the tea leaves this weekend, I don't think it's quite time yet. Financials seem destined for more time in the sun, while PM possibly has more time lingering in the doghouse.

FD: long PM, long SKF (too soon, I now think)

Pookster, in the event you didn't see my original post, I posited because of my DENSA status I couldn't figure out what it means, so I asked the minions. It may mean nothing...

Warren made a huge purchase in USG about 2 years ago.

This Chinese drywall story came out locally back in January. There is a community just north of where I live called Lakewood Ranch where one entire street has abandoned homes due to this problem. Sen. Bill Nelson recently visited Lakewood Ranch to view the situation.

This Chinese drywall is corroding the electrical components and copper tubing in the AC air handlers on homes that are less than 3 years old. Lennar has been quietly going back and removing the bad drywall from these homes while admitting no guilt.

The problem is that once the bad drywall is removed, homeowners naturally want everything inside the wall cavities to be checked and tested, and Lennar appears to be balking and quickly covers up the open cavity with new drywall.

It's a mess.

http://tinyurl.com/agtajg

http://tinyurl.com/cnxs24

http://tinyurl.com/ag9y53

hi 2nd,

Great tip on the Broadway Prime restaurant, I will try it.

Regarding cars, have you looked into the auto auctions? A friend in the auto business, suggested I check it out before buying my next car. If you are interested, I will get more info for you.

last, I have family in town this week who want to take a 2 day side trip up the northern ca coast - they have already done napa and extensive european travelers. I was thinking perhaps pt reyes/tomales bay area and then head towards mendocino? I am not real familiar with this area and not sure which town is the best stopping point. Any suggestions for itinerary? Prefer to avoid tourist spots and dog friendly hotels with rv (which I like but not for this trip). Wine, redwoods, restaurants and seals or whales? are top of list. Mark, or anyone else's suggestions would be great! I am scrambling to do last minute research online. thank you!

Hope everyone is enjoying a nice Easter Sunday!

vb

Beware the ‘Conspiracy of Optimists’: In the run up to the top of the bull market (October 2007), there is an overly positive view of the world, a misconception amongst the broader populace as to what is actually happening. Warning signs are ignored as foolish memes are promulgated.

Recall these absurd rationales:

• Damage from Subprime mortgages was “contained”
• The US economic slowdown would “decouple” from the rest of the world;
• The conundrum of ultralow interest rates were the result of a “excess savings”

All three of these proved false. And, to the astute investor, these all contained warnings of the coming investment storm. We are currently hearing similar foolishness from the same perennial cheerleaders.

Four recent economic data points (ISM data, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and Non Farm Payroll) were all spun by Wall Street as if they were positive; if you dug beneath the headlines to review the actual data, they were all terrible.

Understand the difference between an economy that is improving versus one that “getting worse more slowly.” We are experiencing the latter.
By Barry Ritholtz

Mark no doubt knows the area well, so I would defer to him for specifics.

I've made the drive to Mendocino many times. Taking Route 1 is a little too slow for my tastes, and every time we've been to Point Reyes the strong winds just make you want to stay in the car. The other two options are 101->20->1, and 101->128->1. I would try both, one coming and one going.

128 is the equivalent of a Sunday drive through the countryside. Some of the redwood groves as you near the ocean inspire awe. I've gone home via 128 solo a couple of times- I will park the car, hike 20-30 yards into a grove, and bask in the towering beauty, silence and shadows. Not sure what kind of lodging you're looking for, but one colleague has been recommending the Little River Inn for years (located in the small town of Little River, naturally, a few miles south of Mendocino), but he's the kind of guy who took his wife to Italy for a month on one of their anniversaries.

20 is more or less a straight drop down the mountain from Willits to sea level. I used to love the descending drive, although you will burn your brake pads taking those tight turns. The first time I made the drive it was after dark- and it's pitch black when you enter the redwoods approaching the coast. My headlights were sweeping across giant trunks seemingly just inches (it's really feet, of course) from the car- it can seem like the Black Forest from your childhold fairy tales.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/04/piracy-on-high-...

Hey VB,

Got some good ideas for you. A couple of questions for you to narrow the list. 1) Kids? 2) Mid or high price range. You have already eliminated the low end. Although there is little in that category anyway. 3) How important is dinning?

2nd's friends are correct about The Little River Inn. My wife and I have stayed there before. The rooms are nice and food is exceptional. Fun bar crowd after the dinning room empties out.

Let me know and I'll send you an e-mail.

Only 53% of American adults believe capitalism is better than socialism.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 20% disagree and say socialism is better. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are not sure which is better.
http://tinyurl.com/d78yo4

Is there a good place to get personal health care insurance/dentist plans for affordable prices?

2nd- I'll make some phone calls tomorrow. I'd say 95% of the drywall in the Bay Area is from National Gypsum or USG. I have never seen any markings that indicate they were manufactured in China. Hardibacker is also the largest supplier of fiber-cement underlayment. I haven't heard any problems here. To make the shipping costs work, these would have to be huge bulk buys by the track builders.

I wouldn't go cutting holes in your walls just yet. Give me 24 hours.

BTW, I just drywalled my entire house in the time frame in question. My wife is a little cranky, but I'm pretty sure that's a pre-existing condition.

This is a valuable web site I often use. http://tinyurl.com/capwpt

Kaimu/Les, I love NZ, it resembles more or like CH, few hours drive to major cities from wherever you live plus optionally you have the sea within about an hour of drive from everywhere, lush greenery, friendly people & very very nice coffee :) Thats one of the places i will be considering for retirement which is many many years away :) Public transport is not as efficient as CH though

The wrong marriage can cost a lot more than a $200/month insurance premium :P

Mark-

"To make the shipping costs work, these would have to be huge bulk buys by the tract builders."

Are you saying it's unlikely any of it would have ended up in Home Depot, which probably supplied most small remodeling projects?

2nd,

poifect (I was already looking at the little river inn). I will book that for the first night and plan on making the drive on 128.

Maybe Mark, will give some more ideas on restaurants or wineries. I was in Inverness once and really liked the area. The oysters were something else.

vb

2nd-Yes. The only way to make the cost work would be to have the material shipped from China and the container trucked directly to the job site. A typical drywall delivery to a retailer would probably make 2 or 3 drop-offs per day at different locations. Track builders can store product on the job site for a long time until ready for use. Still, because of the weight, it boggles the mind that it penciled out, but apparently it has.

I know the right people to call about this.

David-

Remember the four horsemen of the NASDAQ? Cisco, Dell, Intel and Microsoft. Where are they now?

A similar scenario may unfold for the large banks over the next year or two-> initial spike down, small bounce, flat for many years.

However, I think the near term looks good for the banks:

(a) How many shorts survived the Thursday massacre? Dead or alive, unlikely to be reloading shorts anytime soon.
(b) Most of the selling in the next few days/weeks will originate with short-or-long term holders who wish to sell into the rally. That would include me. However, I'm not inclined to sell (intermediate-term positions) immediately. As much as financials have rallied, they're still way down from the highs. Even taking into account the four horsemen scenario, I foresee many months of volatility before we hit the flatlands.
(c) Delaying release of stress test results does not strike me as overt manipulation. I think it's just prudent policy. Geithner has specifically stated his reasons, and I believe that's all it is.
(d) WFC. Let's face it, the pre-annoucement was a huge surprise. One can remain skeptical, or one can take it at face value. Did ANYONE see that coming? No? Then what else can we NOT see coming? I'd be a little concerned playing the short side right now.
(e) We all know financials will recover some day. I would not presume to predict how/when/how fast the recovery plays out. But I think the downside for the SECTOR (not necessarily individual companies within the sector) has more or less bottomed out.

Let me recount a dream I had last night. FAS hit 10.21 and FAZ hit 3.38. Dreams for the most part are irrelevant, and I treat them that way (not one to exaggerate their importance, nor one to discount them). So the numbers are irrelevant. What I do sometimes take seriously is the way a particular dream informs my decision-making. Now I can't recall the 'impressions' associated with the dream, only the fact that I 'awoke' for a few minutes and recalled specific 'reasons' behind those numbers. So fwiw, just knowing that reasons percolated into consciousness long enough for me to remember I had them is enough to add another tell. Not enough to put an (f) in front of it. LOL (I would).

Bill, Excellent WIR, still digesting it. Thanks for all the hard work

Thank you for all your very informational comment to this community? I've learned so much just tracking off the leads you pick up on.
Thanks.

I'm trying to refine the categories I use to screen out stocks that may be tradeable. As an under-capitalized trader I look for prices I can buy big blocks of, then wait for a less than dollar move, and make a nice scalp off.
Other than price I look for volume, % change, historical pricing, and a basic fundamental understanding of what they do/why they move.
It's why I follow C and FAS so closely - they fit in my pocketbook and I understand (some at least) what they do.
Any other small capital traders want to share how they screen out stocks?

I know the Cara Community has a very diverse background.
I'm looking for an older coupe model I can put a V8 or V10 diesel engine in. I had contemplated the 1960's era Mercedes coupe but not sure that's going to work.
Anyone here with a knowledge about frame off resto for putting a diesel in an older coupe?
Obviously price is an object. Nothing that's going to require six figures please.

CS- You're welcome.

I was almost ready to ask 2nd to pony up a report for us, as I've come to look into his decision making process as a basis of mine.

Thanks to all for the back and forths. The discussion threads really get the brain going.

Les- Really? Maybe you can share your dream interpretations as well ;)

No I reserve judgment for your more concrete prognostications 2nd.

Here's a funny video the crowd here may or may not have seen 6 months ago.

Ex-trader gone journalist/commentator. He exaggerates, but good sunday "Goldman Sachs" entertainment still:

http://tinyurl.com/4atgb3

THAT'S GREAT BILL!!

ALOHA !!

Lincoln understood what he was up against ...

"Lincoln succeeded in restoring the government’s power to issue the national currency, but his revolutionary monetary policy was opposed by powerful forces. The threat to established interests was captured in an editorial of unknown authorship, said to have been published in The London Times in 1865:

“If that mischievous financial policy which had its origin in the North American Republic during the late war in that country, should become indurated down to a fixture, then that Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off its debts and be without debt. It will become prosperous beyond precedent in the history of the civilized governments of the world. The brains and wealth of all countries will go to North America. That government must be destroyed or it will destroy every monarchy on the globe.”

Lincoln was assassinated in 1865. According to historian W. Cleon Skousen:

“Right after the Civil War there was considerable talk about reviving Lincoln’s brief experiment with the Constitutional monetary system. Had not the European money-trust intervened, it would have no doubt become an established institution.”

The institution that became established instead was the Federal Reserve, a privately-owned central bank given the power in 1913 to print Federal Reserve Notes (or dollar bills) and lend them to the government. The government was submerged in a debt that has grown exponentially since, until it is now an unrepayable $11 trillion. For nearly a century, Lincoln’s statue at the Lincoln Memorial has gazed out pensively across the reflecting pool toward the Federal Reserve building, as if pondering what the bankers had wrought since his death and how to remedy it."END

Okay, continue Lincoln's work and ELIMINATE THE US FED! When you eliminate the US FED you eliminate US INCOME TAXES. It is no strange coincidence that both started at the same time in 1913 ...

Battles are now being waged by RON PAUL against the US FED, demanding of all things UNHOLY ... more accountability! Then there is also GATA who has filed their FOIA ... Here: "The wizard behind the curtain turns out to be a small group of men pulling levers and dials, creating an illusory money scheme that, behind all the talk and bravado, is mere smoke and mirrors. These levers are controlled by a privately-owned, unaccountable central bank called the Federal Reserve, which has recently dispensed billions if not trillions in funds to its banker cronies, without revealing where these monies are going even under Congressional inquiry or in response to Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. As Chris Powell pointed out recently in conjunction with an FOIA request brought by Bloomberg News, which the Fed declined to comply with:

“Any government that can disburse $2 trillion secretly, without any accountability, is not a democratic government. It is government of, by, and, for the bankers.”4

There was a time when private central bankers were the heavyweights in control, able to run their ultra-secret agenda with impunity; but that era is coming to an end. The bankers are scrambling, trying to patch up their crumbling creations with schemes, bailouts and sleight of hand. That effort, however, must ultimately prove futile. As investment adviser Rolfe Winkler said in a recent article:

“The great Ponzi scheme that is the Western World’s economy has grown so big there’s simply no ‘fixing’ it. Flushing more debt through the system would be like giving Madoff a few billion to tide him over. Or like adding another floor to the Tower of Babel. To what end? The collapse is already here. The question is: How much do we want it to hurt? Using the public’s purse to finance ‘confidence’ in a system that is already kaput may delay the Day of Reckoning, sure, but at the cost of multiplying our losses. Perhaps fantastically.”5

The bankers are on the run, feverishly trying to use the collapse of the current system to steer us toward an “Amero”-style North American currency, or a one-world private banking system and privately-issued global currency that they and only they control. We the people will not accept those solutions, however, no matter how bad things get. We demand real solutions that empower us, not further enslave us."END

If you wonder what people like Kissinger and Gordon Brown(UK PM)mean by "NEW WORLD ORDER" then there it is! Essentially more of THEM in power and more FIAT! Just how NEW is that? A "real" NEW WORLD ORDER" would be getting rid of the OLD WORLD leaders and its corrupt MONEY forever!

QUESTION AUTHORITY and hit the streets this April 15th and bring your TEA BAGS and CSI tape!

To read the entire LINCOLN article go here: http://tinyurl.com/dcwxu2

ALOHA !!

When was it we had CAPITALISM again? Capitalism cannot exist in the USSA and the USSA has been around longer than I have been alive!

Every US GOVERNMENT intervention is SOCIALISM, not CAPITALISM ...

Please-e-e-e ...

I totally agree with that. Should they know what socialism really is, their answers would be very different.

Did anyone of those polled ask themselves how come USSR is not the mightiest country in the world and Cuba is not the best resort island thinkable - if socialism is so great?

I also updated our Javascript libraries today. It doesn't seem to have gotten rid of the "Unresponsive script" error as I'd hoped, but if there are no problems with it I'll probably keep the upgraded version. So let me know if anything isn't working right.

"I no longer jump the gun, rather than wait for trend to turn."

If I only knew how to figure out that the trend has changed. :) There were a couple of times during the past month when XLF took a significant hit, and all of those instances were buying opportunities. So, the next time XLF drops 20%, is it going to be a natural pull-back after 5-6 weeks of constant rallying, or is it going to be the start of the trend down?

I was buying all pullbacks in XLF for the past month because I felt that the extent of pessimism was so great in early March that it has given enough energy for the mood pendulum to swing in the other direction for at least a couple of months. Maybe the right approach now is to wait for 2nd_ave to tell us that the market mood has become overly optimistic :), and THEN short the next decline in XLF. Or watch carefully the reaction to Goldman issuing shares or stress tests announcements as other possible turning points.

Kaimu, George Soros is telegraphing the punch of the Pigmen, "that is good" because of his large ego. "A new world currency" and Timmy says were open to that, just how would the Canadian or American dollar be valued, my guess down, not up, whether it is a Amero, or a Global Currency we the people loose out big time, and see are savings annihilated by inflation which will go ballistic.

Ricahrd Russell has said for the second time in his life he is 30% invested in physical Gold, Paul Van Eeden I am buying physical Gold especially at 850.00, no stock, and am I am shorting bonds.

Whether the Pigmen "New World Order" and the Rothchilds, Council On Foreign Relations, Bildenbergs succed, is questionable, but the attempt will punish the masses. Whether it is gold, silver, wood to heat your house,or other hard assets,"ask someone in Iceland, our fiat monetary system is being reorganized, and JOE is going to get the short end of the stick, BIG TIME. With the IMF being big daddy, owned by the Federal Reserve, 45% this is a wake up call.

This is just another way for the global baking system to bilk people for their cash, rendering it useless in your safety deposit box by moving to another currency, which they control.

The old world Jesuit World Order is alive and well and George Soros is their PR Man.

We're likely to see disintermediation in the currencies first.

VB- For some reason "contact the author" is not showing up on your post. So the rest of you can skip this.

A must stop is Nick's Cove. This old restaurant/cottages was just finished. This is a Pat Kluto project. The food is pristine and the cabins are right on Drake's Bay. At least stop for lunch if nothing else.
Manka's Inverness Inn is great. They also have cottages and the food is rustic/game. Really nice.

Further up the coast, The Sea Ranch is a little community that has a golf course, lodge, beach access. Many private homes are also available to rent. This is just south of Gualala.

Further up the coast is Little River/Mendocino. You know anout the Little River Inn. One step up is The Heritage House. World renowned for both food and logging. If you decide to go there, if I were you, I'd ofter to pick up the tab every where but there! Restaurant 955 in Mendocino is also very nice.

I'd also suggest visiting the Mendocino Coast Botanical Gardens. Should be spectacular this time of year. Give it at least 2 hours.

Wineries. Handley Cellars, Husch Vineyards, and Roederer Estate are my favorites. Make sure you call ahead.

On the way back it might be worth stopping in to see Cavallo Point. I used to go there as a kid, but now it has been refurbished into a resort/fine dinning. I hear it is quite good both for the accommodations and the restored military base and grounds. Right on the Bay, Sausalito side, under the GG bridge.

Man, I'm jealous. Have a great time!

Vinod,

Respectfully disagree. I don't think it is a matter of intelligence, but more an apathetic ignorance. American people especially younger people in the video game generation(35 and under) have no interest in Government, history or economic systems. They simply do not care. Go ahead I challenge you to ask the most basic questions on any of these subjects and you will be flabbergasted at the blank stares. I know this does not apply to the young members of this sight or they would not be here, but I am sure they could tell amazing stories of their peers ignorance. Of coarse ask something about Brittany, Tupac or Grand Theft Auto they could write a dissertation. Yet ask something about say fascism or totalitarianism and it would be,"I'm like whatever."
Bob

2nd

The Shanghai stock market has been up rising 34% (A-share) while Hong Kong-listed H-shares risen just 3% this year
Widening valuation gap between A-shares and H -shares-- which can be bought by international investors --failing to price in China's recovery or just missing out on the domestic liquidity kicker?

Vinod- On the other hand, Shanghai fell much further than Hong Kong when you look at the 2-yr low (72% drop for Shanghai from the peak v 60% drop for Hong Kong).

Mark- Then the opening got bought, as it is now down only 16 points:

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/freetop.aspx

Yep, I saw that. You've been following the Nikkie a lot longer than me. The intra-day sings are amazing. Typical? I'm glad we don't have lunch breaks.

"but what reason(s) are there right now for a sell-off?". None that I see, but give me an hour and I'm sure I can "worry" some up. Being very careful still.

Excerpt:

"Mr. Silver says of the coming tax hikes: "We've done it before. There hasn't been a catastrophe." Oh, really? According to Census Bureau data, over the past decade 1.97 million New Yorkers left the state for greener pastures -- the biggest exodus of any state. New York City has lost more than 75,000 jobs since last August, and many industrial areas upstate are as rundown as Detroit. The American Legislative Exchange Council recently said New York had the worst economic outlook of all 50 states, including Michigan. And that analysis was done before these $4 billion in new taxes. How does Mr. Silver define "catastrophe"?

Oh, and it isn't just high earners who get smacked. The new budget raises another $2 billion or so on top of the $4 billion in income taxes with some 100 new taxes, fees, fines, surcharges and penalties to be paid by all New York residents. There are new charges for cell phone usage, fishing permits, health insurance (the "sick tax"), electric bills, and on bottled water, cigars, beer and wine. A New York Post analysis found that a typical family of four with an income below $100,000 would pay more than $800 a year in higher taxes and fees.

This is advertised as a plan of "shared sacrifice," but the group that is most responsible for New York's budget woes, the all-powerful public employee unions, somehow walk out of this with a 3% pay increase. The state is receiving an estimated $10 billion in federal stimulus money, and Democrats are spending every cent while raising the state budget by 9%. Then they insist with a straight face that taxes are the only way to close the budget deficit.

And so Albany is about to make a gigantic gamble on New York's economic future. The gamble is that the state with the highest cost of doing business can raise taxes on everyone who lives, works, breathes, eats or drinks in the state and not pay a heavy price for it. If they're wrong, New York will enhance its reputation as the Empire in Decline State."

Thanks Bill for another great week in review!

I think it was Churchill who said "If you're not a socialist at 20, you've got no heart, if you're not a capitalist at 40, you've got no brains".

What I find even more interesting is that neither you nor Vad deemed to address the question, but rather gave a vague and rather useless response.
I believe the response to the poll was that "yeah, but that's because they don't know what the question really means" - either through ignorance or youth or a combo apparently.
Therefore I was curious as to what the working definition of these terms was as defined by the august members of this community. It looks like I won't get an answer, probably because you don't actually have a definition but rather a vaguely held belief that "Capitalism is American and therefore good : Socialism is European and therefore bad".
But hey, as the kids say these days - wevs.

"Socialism is European."

CS- You misspelled it. "Socialism is 'You're a peon."

I'd like to see the FED disintermediated from our currency policy.

Hi Vad,
Not to jump in here, but I would be very interested in your thoughts. For some reason I have wound up with lots of friends that have immigrated here from Sweden, and would be interested in the comparison.

When you have time...Thanks.

http://tinyurl.com/dbkger

http://tinyurl.com/dn26px

Chris,

I believe you are referring to my post..."Sweden was called socialist, but is simply an effective social democracy." That was your inference, not mine. I was simply interested in Vad's views compared to my friends.

BTW, I'm confident my Swedish friends would question your statement that, Sweden " is simply an effective social democracy."

http://tinyurl.com/cecegy

"The Treasury Department is directing General Motors to lay the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing by a June 1 deadline, despite GM's public contention that it could still reorganize outside court, people with knowledge of the plans said during the weekend."

Corner Store, Community.

No chuckle, no LOL or LMAO. I thought my socialism and especially my CAPITALISM definition were quite funny. This is too serious tonight. You capitalist need to loosen up or I am going to take my jokes to the Daily RED Socialist Commie Equities Trading site.
Seriously I could go into a Manifesto size post alla Kamiu going into the intricacies of economic, political and cross sections between the two for the numerous systems of social order. A little Hobbs a little Locke, a lot of Karl, some Lenin, maybe some Gompers. Che anyone? I am sure I could illustrate the errors in the weird Fox news definition of socialism. (Any program Obama proposes is socialism.) Yet I don't have the time. I think I do have two storys that will illuminate a good working definition and possibly show the angst inherent in the European union.

Many years ago I was waiting on the runway in Honduras to catch a plane to the outer cayes. I was traveling with 2 Swedish fellows and a Dane. Arriving in our departing plane was a German family. The patriarch of the German family was a stereotypical older German gentleman down to the handlebar mustache. I helped the family unload the luggage and introduced my friends and mentioned country of origin. The German gentleman says to me while shaking my hand."I will shake your hand you are an American. At least you work for a living." Then walked by my friends without aknowledging them. He obviously did not know me too well.

One time I asked my Hungarian father in law what it was like working in a communist country. He said, "Well Bob, They pretended to pay us, so we pretended to work."

gold held steady at 880 and is slightly up. Gonna get bashed today or incrementally creep back up?

This is it. The week the banks pull out all stops to shed the s%&t that clings to them and attempt to shine.

With my limited trading capacities, I'm going to buy the weeks end XLF 11-10 straddle. I'm hoping for best case scenario of a drawback in financials opening the week and a surge as the BS lets fly towards the end. That would make both sides of the straddle profitable without selling intraday.

We shall see. GL today.

EWH from the I share family. I believe it is the most liquid of all etfs. They have an ETF for almost every country at I shares. Check out their web site.

I use both google and yahoo for my watch lists. One thing i like about google is they have the name of the equity next to the symbol which helps the confusion if you have a poor memory or your in the heat of the battle trading. I have not seen best free charts yet. I will check it out.

Futures are slightly negative right now, oil is down and gold up - some kind of pullback makes more sense after a 16% rally. However, I have to agree on the week ahead - bullish seems to be the current trend. I'm thinking my SKF buy on Friday was probably premature. :)

I think I'll put in a limit order to sell and hopefully I will make some money if there is serious profit taking at the open.

"Well, what do ya know, I'm still locked out of America and its markets..."

We all are Les, whether we know it or not!

Does pre-market trading in Canada not exist?

Presently looking at a blank screen, against busy activity already in the US

Very simplistic definitions...

Capitalism:
A system where individuals risk their own assets with the "goal" of providing for themselves and others.

Socialism:
A system where a governing body risks the assets of individuals with a "promise" of providing for all.

While neither is perfect, capitalism is born of freedom — socialism is crafted by taking away freedom.

To me freedom will always be a clearly better choice. While capitalism is free to win or lose, socialism has never fulfilled the promise for long — or for all.