Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Feb. 6, 2009

No we didn't. England, France, Germany, all have their own house-value fiasco simultaneous to us. We didn't tell the bank of England to bankrupt itself, and they certainly didn't do so on our behalf. The Chinese went on an industrial boom which mirored our deepening morass, in fact it's arguable that the Chinese helped bring us down. They sold us poison crap and bought our fugazy debt in a backwards attempt to take over America economically. And it worked, but they're left holding the bag. The whole world went mad, not just us.

As for your assertion that gold isn't going anywhere, well, that sounds implausible. It could go down, it could go up, but it will go somewhere. Also, to predict oil to be between 30 and 60 for the next 12 months is, in the discipline of a statistically minded economist-type, not exactly going out on a limb. But hey. What can I say?

Gold will "eventually" (could be next week) rise a lot because either the stimulus will work or it won't. Either way, in reality, long term, the dollar is toast. BTW I'd be willing to bet oil is above 60 in 12 months.

For the past 50 years, American politicians have been busting out the United States like Tony Soprano did to that sporting goods store.

George Bush = Original "G"...

sticking in a buy limit order at 4.58 (close - 10 day ATR).

If no execution by 10:30/11 am est, I'll pull the order.

COST - Upgraded to Buy @ UBS. Price Target = $52

DELL - RBC Initiates Coverage with a Sector Perform.

KSS - Price Target Raised from $28.50 to $38 @ Jefferies & Co.

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Price Targets Lowered:

ATVI - from $20 to $15 @ Argus
COST - from $50.50 t0 $42 @ Jefferies & Co.
GE - from $13 to $9 @ JP Morgan
TGT - from $32 to $31 @ Jefferies & Co.

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More as they happen here on CaraVision. ;^)

Have a great weekend, everyone.

Wow. And no, no option.

Sh&%, talk about Alice falling down the rabbit hole.

How deep does it go?

Hope this guy lives to publish a more readable book version of his story.

Non-Farm payrolls -598,000

You can add me to that "is it just me?"

I never believed anything either canididate said during their campaigns... in the end they both have people to "thank." I always thought both would end upmore alike than different once their administrations started to roll.

Say what you need to get the win and then figure out the rest as you go.

Hi Bill

RE: "external network of advisers to help fix the economy"

Of all the free advice crowding the air waves for Obama, I like what I heard this AM from Romney. I bet he would help.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1023889201&p...

A question. Not to be argumentative, but I AM running out of weed. Poor Michael Phelps. I am planning to boycott Kellogs, but anyway...

Why on earth would you consider an order such as this? What's the desire to own this stock should it plummett $1.75 today? And if it did, would yu want an automatic order or wouldn't you prefer to manually purchase when the timing seems right. I realize I'm half a retard, just lemme know the fun I'm missing out on.

Yeah. Most of the people who saw Oliver Stone's Wall Street got the wrong message. It's odd 'cause it was a fairly straightforward cautionary tale but people are perverse. They came out of that movie wanting to be Charlie Sheen, if they were under 30, or Gordon Gekko if over 30. I myself was under 20 but still wanted to be Gekko. Call me precocious.

Wall Street Executive Air - sorry if already posted

http://www.markfiore.com/wall_street_executive_air_0

Does anyone remember the Andy Hardy movies from the 1930s with Mickey Roonie and Judy Garland? Without realizing it (or perhaps it was the same then) they were taking the Washington D.C. approach to the problem of the day...

"Let's put on a show!"

More on the COST Upgrade:

Upgraded at UBS to Buy from Neutral based on valuation and best in class business model. Believe margin headwinds (currencies, markdowns, fuel prices) are coming to an end, and note that membership renewal is better than ever. Price target lowered to $52 from $57.

ugh, when can crude oil mount a rally, seems like it wants to move back towards the mid-30's before something can happen. i wonder if too many people believe we've seen the bottom in crude simply because we assume supply/demand fundamentals will cause a decrease in production, which would lead to higher prices...

suppressing the oil price benefits americans the most, and hurts many of american's traditional foes: russia, iran, venezuela. it is no coincidence that any economic stimulus would be all the more effective alongside the massive tax-like cut that is lower oil/gas prices. its almost toooo coincidental.

if you are a regional producer of crude oil, relying on it for the majority of your state's income as many OPEC/non-OPEC nations are, you would pump more oil in the case of falling prices to make up for lost revenues. it worsens the actual situation but empires, nations, communities and individual's have a habit of sacraficing the later for the now. i suspect falling oil prices beget more drops in prices as more supply enters the market. russia, iran, venezuela and other states are crippled by current oil prices. i think it works out all too well for the juggernaut oil consumer that is america.

so will oil find a floor in the 30's simply because producers will stop pumping? im not sure. they may, but w/ the sheer volume of oil pumped by state-owned oil companies (or shell corporations that are proxies of their oligarchical state-leaders) i find it difficult to envision them cutting on their hands to save their arms because of plain old fashioned short-sightedness.

the same short-sightedness that got us into this mess in the first place non?

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gold: doing its usual morning crash. ive run out of things to say about gold and gold stocks for the moment. as ive said before there are bullish medium/long term set up's happening on the charts. but TA is like T and A, great to look at and alot of fun, but not a sustainable trait for a bountiful relationship..... thier continued underperformance vs. gold could be a reality of life going forward, or a sign that gold is unable to really break through its old highs with any real conviction just yet.

the USD is still looking somewhat strong, dont even look at the charts with EMA's because they look dam good, but so does the gold chart. its weird.

im not liking golds actoin at the moment. but what else is new. i was loving it for some reason just a day or 2 ago, but it truly is a case of 3 steps forward and 2 steps back, sometimes 3 steps back....

HGU is really just UGH!!! in disguise

good luck.

vinod- as David would say, "value destruction." look at FXP. or look at SiO2's research on the ultra ETFs.

Seems like there's only one fairly predictable trade...People are buying 2 or 3 minutes in as the bottom of the opening range seems to be established and then trade the range. This is how folks made 20 cents in yamana this morning even though gold hasn't done squat.

In fact, it seems that yamana drops are buyable even as gold does nothing, that's how much interest there is in the stock.

Here's the game...trading has zero to do with "good" setups as described in trading books. In fact, the more certain a setup looks, the more likely it is to fail. There is no trading book in the world that states:

Buy after a 3 minute low has been established and dump it when it starts looking good, but that's been the trade.

Also look at the way yamana has defied gravity.

Erin Burnett is losing the few brain cells she began with. She knows someone who is playing golf. Wow.

Damn thing went parabolic on no rise in gold futures.....Hey here's a question......

When does a stock rise with NO BUYABLE PULLBACKS?

Of course, silly goose. It's when you're not in it.

Also am I the only one who has trouble buying into todays bullishness, for lack of another word that begins with bull and has 4 more letters after it?

Here's another idea....Watching 30 stocks trying to find the one that looks really really good is folly. You need to buy at the first sign of life, therefore you need to watch 3 or 4 stocks very closely. It doesn't matter if it isn't the perfect stock.

Has just been on a rocket ship for the last five days, something's going on there...

http://tinyurl.com/cnnqwx

1) I am not in front of my computer all day.

2) A Triple RSI buy alert was triggered on 2/4 but I bought it at 5.09 and sold in the 6's.

3) It's very volatile so a 20% price move is just average.

4) I want to sell it when it jumps and buy it when it plummets enough.

5) Max pain is 12.50 so buying it when it's below 6.50 is less risk (IMO)

JMO, too many on this board are working too hard (and taking on too much risk) to pick up a few pennies intraday but that's my opinion. So I just run stocks against the RSI screen esp the 7 day and trade 'em.

GL

I have noticed the behavior on AUY you mentioned on AUY also occurs with some of the ETF's like UCO/FAZ/FAS. It seems it is the volatility itself that is being "traded". I think it's an astute point you make that today's setup could become tomorrow's trap.

well for me, the Triple RSI buy signal is not working like it would in a bull market. And I see too many forcing a trade when I don't see the indicators and risk lining. It'd be better to just sit. I look at several screens/areas and watch for the RSI 7 day to go below 10 and then check to see what the max pain options expiration looks like. If it isn't there, it isn't there.

sold it way too soon. Should have put a trailing stop more like the 10 day ATR or 1.5 the 10 day.

"So, is the market going to have faith and hold over the weekend?"

Watch Europe's close. I'm betting we close nicely green (look at Asia) and everyone leaves it on the table waiting for a presidential weekend to unfold.

Friday smart money cash-out.

"hey everybody!...Come on in the water's fine...wait...what's that?
What the......

AAAAAAAAAArrrrrrrrrrrrrggggghhhhhhHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

Shark,
As usual its raining in San Diego today. Not that it rains a lot here. But it is usual when the PGA tour comes to our backyard; the Buick Torrey Pines and formerly the Mercedes Championship/Accenture Match play @ La Costa. You can't do Torrey Pines because there is little room for the crowds. I was there a few years ago when there was a fog out in the morning and Tiger had to stand at the tee box for 30 minutes before play resumed. I was standing right in front where he was going to hit a drive at a par 5. When the fog horn went off he prepares for his drive and a fat marshall stands right in front of me and raises his arms for quiet. I missed his best drive of the tournament; 350 yards. Typical of Torrey Pines. The La Costa was the gem of the PGA tour until they moved to Arizona. Because everyone in S. Cal had been to either Torry Pines or the LA Open, only 7K spectators would show up at the La Costa event per day. If you wanted to you could follow Tiger up close through the whole match without much problem except for the weekend. But I liked to follow Harrington or Appleby. You can learn so much about the golf swing watching those guys up close. They both keep the armpits tights through the swing. I spent the last event two years ago with Appleby/Allenby's swing coach as we walked through Allenby's match with Lehman. Lehman won with one drive that rolled 390 yards. But it always rained at that event; like today.

http://at.zacks.com/?id=2505

(tiny url won't work on this)

I hear you CP and I have seen Eurasia mkts. But, since amateur hour is nearly over after 10am (very short term) I'm seeing a pattern of lower lows and lower highs on $INDU, volume dropping off slowly. I smell a bull trap. Disclosure I have QID and FAZ.

News just now: Republicans are going to what they can to "take this bill down".

JMHOs

Monday would mark the EOM/BOM favorable trading period. I'll look at selling at the open then.

We'll know in the fullness of time.

Hello BSI,

You speak a bunch about max pain. Where is the best internet location for me to read up and understand the background of this indicator?

Thanks in advance

Numbers are probably 150,000 or more off. It will be seen in the revisions in 6-9 months. Gubermint trying to pull out all stops to appease Wall Street and then pass the "Haily Mary Bill"...watch Wall Street show signs of flushing the market with a 300 point drop and light a fire under the guberminters seats!!

hope it works :-)

own a few SPY puts
Own GG leaps SLW

DXO :-(

Shark,
I love the game but I haven't played it much in the last two years. It just seems that all of my golf buddies have moved or I have. Playing single isn't the same. Also some back issues; 18 can be a problem. My local golf course is 6400 yards and Oak tree lined and narrow on the back but I like the 9 hole front for $11 walking. It is not as flat as the back but a nice walk. I plan to get out again after the rain stops. I'm not that good probably because I was in my mid 40's when I started. But I can par and birdie a few holes per round which keeps me in the game. It make tv viewing more respectiful once you have tried it yourself. Like the uphill/downhill lie that the tour players routinely place on the green. Here's a link to my course. http://www.fallbrookgolf.com/

It's been my experience the best time to buy is when banks aren't lending / won't lend. Back in the seventies banks wouldn't finance a $7,000 lot here on the lake, now they're worth $500k.

Anyone watching this one??

Unfortunately, I became an investor of this one a few months back. Maybe there is life after death!

vb

"i think Vad would agree that "good" setups often present themselves as "uncomfortable" setups.."

2nd,

overall, yes, but statements made about "good setups" are too general for me to comment until we go over definitions... I mean, what is it that constitutes "good setup described in books"? :) There are books that present general knowledge about setups and leave it to the reader to select their favorites and make modifications to them; there are books that describe setups authors trade; and there are books that claim that setups described are da best... obviously those books will have vastly different value, can't make a blanket statement about them all.

The point about equilibrium between uncertainty and and favorable odds/profit potential is made in many books, and one of the best on exactly this, IMO, is The Nature of Risk by Justin Mamis

I think more and more people are realizing that it would have been better to let compromised institutions fail and to use the 9+ trillion we promised to the compromised institutions for supporting the healthy financial institutions left standing.

But if many in the government are in "deep capture" then they had to do anything the failed institutions wanted for fear of repercussions to them or their families.

The "deep capture" story really makes me believe that the only way to successfully invest honestly in this environment is with a mind to Defense 1st, 2nd, and, 3rd. Then the 4th priority is Offense. With so many teams (legal and illegal)manipulating portions of the market for their own gain, protection has to be paramount in anyone's mind who's not connected to one of these teams.

It's amazing how nasty everything looks when you drain the swamp.

Rob.

Hi All,

Thank you for sharing your knowledge. I have a question about using options to generate income for stocks that are deep under water. Do any of you have any experiences and/or strategies using options that you can share?

Thanks.

Who is selling into this rally with long postitions going into he weekend?

This feels like a buy the rumor (stimulus) sell the news on Monday.

Thoughts?

DJIA 10 day ATR is 225.58

Price at time of this post is 8255.82.

adding them together is about 8480.

50 DEMA for DJIA is 8476 which has contained rallies since June 2008.

see what happens Monday esp if the Admin comes out with some sort of plan over the weekend.

No opinion on plans, etc.

Just watching the circus.

yvrapx... to me it's more like fun... remember my yesterday's trick with selling half and re-buying it back on pullback? I happily repeated it twice already today. Cost basis goes lower and lower with each roundtrip

As many of you are aware, since Jan 2009 the tax free savings account allows Canadians to save and trade in a tax free environment - allowable contribution per year, 5000 CAD.

The loss of 5000 CAD is not likely to ‘break the bank’ for many of those who are able to contribute to a TFSA, and tax savings on investment income from 5000 CAD really only become interesting when relatively large gains are involved.

This scenario provides an incentive to trade high-risk stocks. As a Canadian, I’m very likely to look to the Venture Board to find those stocks.

Value of Venture Board, Dec 2008 – 559,767,559 CAD*
5.7% Increase in Value – 31,906,751 CAD
Number of New TFSA Accounts - ~10,000 (seems reasonable ??)
CAD per TFSA Account to generate 5.7% increase in Venture Board -

31,906,751 CAD / 10,000 = ~3000 CAD

3000 CAD per TFSA account on high-risk stocks - seems plausible that at least some of the recent gains on the Venture Board might be related to new TFSA activity. Just a thought. I could be way off here.

eps705

* www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/211...

bsi87
good post. should hit 8500 before rolling over?

But I took my TNA off for a small loss.

Own this one free and nice to see it pick up steam again. "Ascending triple top breakout" and tracking with gold as was usual in the past. Happy Trading

Just schlubbly.

Certain currencies are bound to rally against the $US, I get the notion that the loonie is due for a relief rally. But most of the trade in the loon is tied to declines in the oil price. But Canadian banks are still being endorsed by American analysts, which is to say they are anticipating a rise in the financials, but also by default, firmness in the Canadian dollar.

This should bode well for American-listed Canadian issues. Because should there be a temporary gap-fill of the $CDW:$USD, then this should carry some of the gold juniors out of the mire. The $CAD gold price is at an all time record, with its chart showing a terminus of the rally, which would confirm that the loonie is about to head north.

But that would say that Carlyle Dunbar is exactly right when he says in the latest Investor's Digest: "Even more significant will be the coming end of the long bond bull market. The end, though, may be as repeated as many times as a rock star's farewell tour."

So a short term weakness in the $USD may be in the cards, or that some of the currencies have overshot on the downside, in particular the loonie.

I compare the travel of the$GOLD:$CDW vs. $CDW overlay and an overlay of my gold junior stock, but I suppose you might throw in financials in this condition. If you have a membership in Stockcharts.com, you can throw in TD.TO in place of the GBN.V symbol in the overlay. GBN.V was formerly very well tied in to the S&P TSX Global Gold Index, I believe it will eventually follow along with the index.

Stockcharts.com $GOLD:$CDW /w overlays

I agree PillZ. I was wrong on market direction this morning. But I do not see the makings of a sustained rally.

Me too...bought QID yesterday. I expected a much worse jobs number. I know of 100K job cuts announced just in MN this past month.

But we are above some Tech levels now...so we shall see how we close. I have a tight stop set on my DDM position. Will hold the QID and SDS I have through later today and if we close above 860 S&P's I may dump SDS and rethink my QID. I dont see the rally holding, but I have been wrong before.....the stimulus package details they have released sound weak at best. GOP hates the bill.

I just sold 1/2 RF and 1/2 Fas. I plan to hold the rest through the weekend or longer (per 2nd avenue)- but I have stops in place just in case

MAX Pain is when you picked off FAS at 7.75 two days ago and sold it for 8.20 that same day. : ' )

Is coming back on good volume - hopefully it can close strong above its 50 day SMA. I've been holding it in this range for a while.

Finger Lakes,

"I think more and more people are realizing that it would have been better to let compromised institutions fail and to use the 9+ trillion we promised to the compromised institutions for supporting the healthy financial institutions left standing."

Agreed. But most thinking people knew this.

The problem is when it is other people's money congress is so generous.

Too bad we can't penalize them in the same way I'd like to penalize the bank CEOs. (Who also were playing with OPM.)

This morning there was a lengthy announcement on radio: ATTENTION to anyone owing more than $10,000 in back taxes to the IRS or state... Due to the economic conditions the IRS is willing to settle for pennies on the dollar.

Hmmmm We've seen three appointments sullied by tax problems so far. Perhaps this will make it easier to find "clean" candidates.

Anyone care to comment on LYM.v or KRI.to. Long both, underwater. Sell and forget? hold and watch gold price?
TIA
peace
Gray

Vad,

Your point on opening ranges is good. I was amazed earlier this week when, after opening well off the close, Yamana, on almost zero volume, rose 20 cents in about ten minutes, similar to today but much less V.

As far as trading books are concerned, I would imagine that anyone who took this activity seriously would, sonner or later but probably sooner become conversant, one way or the other, with the various methodologies employed by many aspiring traders. For if one is ignorant of his methods, how is one to separate him from his nourishment?

using mental stop just for that reason. i suspected they would take it there. i was using $10 in my head as the activation price and a little bit lower stop price.

still in fas.

Glad to see your back in the game. You picked an interesting starter. FAS makes 1$ swings like nothing. Not for the faint of heart. Good Luck.

As for 'junior miners' associated with the gold trade, you would need first of all need ~wait for it~ gold, (sort of shiny stuff, more shiny when refined, has the talismanic effect of being way more shiny once you hold it in your hand, precious) and a discernable, logical process towards development acquisition and most importantly, growth.

As for Canadian banks, obviously the fundamentals are important, you would buy RBC or TD rather than CIBC or Caisse Desjardins. I think it would be the same for the mining sector, you would favour strong fundamentals.

Ny grad,, yeah, i see now. Next time I will put my stop right below 10.00 at 9.97

thanks for pointing that out. wish you a continued ride up

vb

"The problem is when it is other people's money congress is so generous."

Exactly, imagine how difficult it would be to spend OPM if some of that money was yours. No wonder they don't pay taxes...

I think we are anticipating the return of his excellency, emperor W with the immediate questionable Obama stuff. Mr. Normal can't compete with the aberrant, extensive corruption.

NP Trading Desk:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingde...

Broke out today

Here are some annotations on what i am looking at.

Attached

1. The Canadian gold price is at a record high. Not a peep.

2. Unions are underfunded with some locals in trusteeship, essentially bankruptcy.

I noticed the SECOND the last amendment was voted on and passed (not the stimulus- just the amendment) FAS and other financials popped up. Now i cannot say this is correlated 100%. Could be just coincidence and my eyes seeing what they want to see.

Just my observation. You can observe yourself.
http://tinyurl.com/b8dq82

So how is it we have this "rally" yet treasuries are static?

Color me suspicious. I think we sell into this and wait for Monday.

Out of SYT calls, keeping the puts, you never know when they come back to life, not worth selling. Remember the SNDK straddles on Tuesday (puts sold, calls kept), calls are now well alive.

Looking at next week's straddles, as well as oil and gas straddles.

Out @ 10.50

Craig,

I understand the workings of TLT. If I ever figure out what makes TBT work, I may have an answer to your question.

Bill, you are still showing SIL on your key Silver Miners.
Are you going to review this table?

Coming up today.

1 We give our tax dollars to banks.

2 Banks don't need to make loans because they have tarp money.

3 Banks don't need to pay high interest because of tarp money.

4 Banks don't need to sell bad assets because of tarp money.

5 Banks, when they receive more than 5 bids on a bank own house don't sell, they take the house off the market only for it to reappear again a $100,000 higher.

6 A house goes down in value 25%, owner is under water, owner has his loan readjust from 4% to 9%, owner trys to get another loan, owner can't get another loan because he has no equity, bank gets house and puts it on market.

This is what has been going on in California, it looks like to me the bailout is just to shore up the banks and to bad for everybody else. My realitor friend says she hates dealing in short sales (bank own homes) because the banks are so cut throat.
I think our government has given the banks money so they can steal again. Why doesn't the bank have go to the open market to get capital, if they can't raise the capital the bank goes on the market like the houses they own.

Bill passed this on to me, and I removed SIL from the daily reports. So you shouldn't see it in the future. Thanks for the feedback!

Below 5 min BB and at 30 rsi.

1. Financials are leading obviously
2. 95-97 of the Cara 100 stocks are up :)
3. Prec metals are just sitting there :(
4. FAS bounced off $10 and never pulled back there, YET. the high is 10.67 today. I need it closer to that in order for me to hold into weekend. the last 30 min will be the tell.

With Obama flying and pitching today, and putting so much pressure on Dems and Reps, i think his own party will give into negotiations with the reps to make him look good.

With T Geithner's Bank rescue teed up for Monday, it would be a big egg in the face for Washington to not pass something. These are my observations.

Someone please remind me in 2008, did they 1st reject the bailout before that nasty 777 point move down or was that after approval. forgive my lack of memory as I was at Sea World that day.

BSI87.....PDS: was in this one a few years ago when times were good. Bought after you brought it up yesterday and did my own DD. Took 13% today on partial and will reload given the chance.

Thank you for the heads up.

>forgive my lack of memory as I was at Sea World that day.

That must have been some seriously interesting dolphins you were looking at that day! Or perhaps it was a mermaid or two that held your attention? ;)

I certainly recall members of the senate getting lambasted by their respective voters for voting down what I remember to be Paulson's very scanty details for a recovery plan. I believe he wanted 700 billion dollars in exchange for a 3 page report, which didn't sit well with capital hill.

If only I could score that sort of cash for such little effort...Hmmm I could buy Switzerland for that price.

BNN had an interesting show today particularly in what refers to oil and gas. They see oil doubling by the end of the year and explain why, and what happened to the price last year in their view. Very interesting.

"BNN chats with Henry Groppe, partner, Groppe, Long and Littell; and Dean Orrico, managing director and CIO, Middlefield"

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call/february-2009/mark...

I have another UCO straddle in place now.

Hope everyone had a good trading day. i am assuming so as 97% of Cara 100 are up.

SHHHHH. jk. good luck on that trade. just email me when you do so i can jump ship on FAS.

If you think about it, fractional reserve lending is a huge ponzi scheme.

Take in a deposit and then lend out 10-30 times that amount. If even 20% of depositors demanded their money, the bank would never be able to pay unless they called in many of their loans.

Then imagine how bad it gets when you lose the depositor's money and still have 30X loans out of which most are going bad. Oh, I forgot, that's where we are now.

Rob.

Doing nicely, maybe they'll go on the balance sheet?

Hey, new to this forum. I appreciate everyone's insights. In return I send you this tip. I cant stand watching USO get killed by contract rollover and contago. Instead, invest in USL, which buys equal amounts of 12 front month contracts, not just the immediate front month, like USO. Therefore, its rollover effect is almost nonexistant. There is near term oversupply in oil, and contago is killing USO, and we are a mile away from backwardation. Check out today's performance and this chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USL#chart5:symb...

I finally found the time to look at the market and saw that a few of my "strategically placed" limit orders have been hit. First, SWC hit the sell limit order at $4.90 for the 500 shares I purchased a couple of weeks ago at $3.98. Then, UCO hit the sell limit order at $10.50 for the 250 shares I purchased on Wednesday at $9.50. Finally, FAZ buy to cover limit order was hit at $40.40 for 25 shares I shorted at $54.54 on Tuesday.

UCO fell back today after reaching $10.50, and was the final straw in my patience with it. I just sold at $9.66 all of my UCO shares (500 with a cost basis of about $9.8). It's not that I don't believe in oil being substantially higher in a year or two, but it's because the oil ETFs, unfortunately, lose big because of contango. For example, March oil futures are now at $40.17, while May futures are at $48.85. The Dow Jones AIG oil subindex will be rolling over next week from tracking March futures to tracking May futures. If the futures prices stay fixed for the next two months, then when the Dow Jones AIG oil subindex will be rolling from May to June futures in April (two months from now), the May futures will be worth the same as March futures now. That is, they will lose 18% in two months. UCO, which gives the double daily returns of the index, will probably lose 45% in two months, since it also loses about 5% per month due to ultra-ETF value erosion. This is a huge headwind to fight against! I would rather trade ACI or BTU, which are highly correlated with oil but have none of the contango or value erosion nonsense, and instead pay dividends!

Agreed, besides this just out on the wire. 'Geithner to outline U.S. banking fix on Monday'
http://tinyurl.com/b2l7ud
You can wait until after more pork gets given to the banks, then short.

NYU- on the day FXP hit 183 at the end of October, it would have been hard for me to believe it would be at 29 less than 2&1/2 months later...

I think Vad's outlook today would be quite different than it was last October. Of course, I'll let Vad speak for himself.

UCO isn't about fundamentals, it's a technical/price/momentum trade....period.

You sit like a cat....for hours/days, waiting for it to pullback, then pounce......and then you sit for hours/days and wait for it to spike up like it did today.

That rule about not averaging down doesn't apply to UCO. You keep small to medium positions so you can add when it scares you. No worries, it's like a cat too. It comes back.

I use a 5min/one day chart with RSI7 and an exponential volume moving average, a new toy from Scottrade.

Disclosure: Added 300 shares at $9.65 after selling at $10.50. Will add if/when it scares me.

Volume & assets will go up. Way up. Never hurts to be early. The only problem with trading is that bid/ask spread is like 10 cents, but that will go down too. Good luck.

Don Coxe initiated a limited access conference call starting today.
If anyone was able to listen to his call I would greatly appreciate
any comments you could share thanks....

Maybe a dividend cut coming to a theater near us...

http://www.247wallst.com/2009/02/ge-finally-open.html

If anyone can share a password for the call, that would be even more appreciated. :)

as its over $11 after hours. if i were trading with $1M i would be booking a typical annual salary in 1 trading session.

EDIT: Also, what i should be doing is investing in buying $10 or $7.50 Feb Put options as insurance. As the price rockets yest and today, the put premium falls, thus the cost insurance becomes cheaper to protect my shares to the down side.

But me = idiot. I guess i like painful lessons. I sincerely hope ctab bahamas can beat it out of me. or make me walk on fire so I never leave myself open & unprotected to the downside.

I'm attempting to listen to it right now but there must be a bug as the replay keeps restarting. Will keep you informed if I am able to hear it. No promises I will, I've had issues with their replays before

No it's not. My game sucketh the big one these days. Now mind you, I was, as of 3 or 4 years ago, the sort of golfer who used to inspire envy on the part of my friends and playing partners. I drove pretty well, my approaches were often on target and as I said earlier, my short game, which I practiced constantly with a "Rainman" type of obsessive dedication was truly awesome.

A couple years went by and I am much weaker now. I used to get drunk and pump weights for an hour before going to the bar to score. The B.S. I been through I can hardly look at women anymore. I haven't done a military press since 1994. I haven't done a pushup in 2 years. I still get drunk a lot though, so don't feel too bad:)

I suffer from chronic gout, a bad liver, I'm probably 40 pounds overweight and I snore. Sitting around worrying as stocks go up and down does nothing for one's physique.

How are you hitting them?

Thanks man..The way I see it, either I'll get it worked out or I won't. Either way, I will still be around, still be annoying, still be like most of us, taking up space in an already crowded world. The idea of all this ending someday doesn't trouble me anymore, it kind of comforts me, not that I plan to hasten nature's course. We are what we are and probably that can't change too much. Besides, this is my second career. I used to want to be a rock star, which was my destiny, which I thwarted, due mostly to the fact that
I'm shy, reclusive, and don't particularly intent to please anyone. Springsteen and Bon Jovi I'm not. I like my rock stars surly, enigmatic and hard to figure out.

Shark,
I haven't hot a white ball for a few years now. I'm pretty much devoted to sailing nowadays. I'm over 60 now and realised I had to keep the body, mind and soul in trim so I'm also into exercise, running, meditation and yoga (with a class of lovely young women). Life's quite pleasant for this old fart but would be nicer if we started to see some rising trends.

shark- Assuming you're serious, lose the 40 pounds and cut out the alcohol. Your gout will go away, your liver function tests should stabilize, and you will probably stop snoring. If you can't do it for your own sake, do it for your Mom. You won't need to go to the bar to score. It may even improve your trading. I can pretty much guarantee all of the above except for the last sentence.

It's funny...I played golf with a guy last year, famous guy, famous family, NY real estate billionairs. This guy is 87 YEARS OLD and I swear he's in better shape than me! No kidding, it's sad. Got to hand it to ya Jerry. And not a bad swing either.

Improving my trading...It sometimes seems that I was a better trader the day I started than I am now. And that's a sad statement of course. Once you've been raked over every conceivable way it can be hard to get back in the game. I find myself missing my own job but knowing I'd be no good at it now either. I used to castrate bulls on a ranch in Montana. Just kidding.

You are absolutely right, this time it's not that clear-cut as with TARP. Let's recall what happened back then and find similarities and differences.

When original TARP went to the senate for discussion, the market exploded preparing its standard trap: move in expectation of the news pretty much pre-exhausting the reaction, make a short-lived initial move in the same direction when the news comes out, then reverse and move in opposite direction effectively trapping those who bought the news itself. That was what mostly happened, with only correction caused by two-step approval.

Let's see what is similar this time.

1. The market went up in expectation of the bill passage, setting up the same traditional trap (can't help but notice, no matter how many times it happened and was explained in numerous books and articles, it still works like charm).
2. Just the same as last time around, every headline saying "vote today - no, vote tomorrow - we have votes to pass - no we don't" immediately reflects in the market, showing the market's sensitivity to this event and confirming for observers that yes, this is what market wants in order to move up.

Now, differences, and this is where it gets interesting.

1. This is second time massive capital injection is being passed, and market often loses the intensity of the reaction as event repeats itself. The fact that the first one didn't really work doesn't help either.
2. Public doesn't seem to have much confidence in this stimulus bill and surely realizes the effect of it is not going to be immediate.
3. There are in fact two bills, not one - and the second one, financial help or second part of TARP, to be announced on Monday, is at least as or most likely more important for the immediate needs. Thus, there are a few things to react on and the market's reaction becomes more confused and confusing.
4. Very important one: unlike original TARP which was simply "let's pour money into it", this second part is actually carrying the content largely unknown yet. It's being pre-announced as financial reform, and this is a big unknown. What kind of conditions will be set, what strings will be attached, what changes will be introduced into whole system - market will want to see and analyze it all.
5. Finally - we are simply in a different place from where we were in Sept-Oct. A lot of digestion happened in the market, a lot of events developed, money changed hands, shares changed hands, geopolitics and worldwide financial cooperation (or lack of such) took place - thus, market accounts for all these new realizations by all the participants.

So... while generally it goes by the same old logistics so far, I am way less clear on what is going to happen. I'll start shaping up my working assumptions some time later... this was very productive and profitable but for some reason intense and tiring week.

you won't.

I agree. AH action on financials was positive, but we have a weekend to digest/worry.

I even hedged a bit expecting we give some up on Monday before the announcement, unless there is whisper news to family and friends that leaks out.....

I like Vadym's breakdown. He puts in print my internal evaluation/sentiment.
These events have taken the place of fed meetings since the fed blew their $$$ and have no ammo left.

WE are the new Fed....like we've always been.

Trade what u see, not what u believe.

u're welcome. Max pain is 7.50 for Feb. 6.83 is the 50 DEMA. See what happens.

long at 6.30. Used a limit order for the day.

I have a Schwab account and all of the ultra's come up"hard to borrow" on my trading screen. How do you do it besides going with the ultra longs?
NYU- Any thoughts on my previous post?

posted by 2nd_ave: "I also suspect that the flip side of David's "value destruction" may play out for awhile in the ultra-longs-> ie, "value creation.""

When ultra-longs have a multi-day rally, they rise by more than 2X relative to the underlying index. So if one picks them up at the right time (and sells them at the right time too), then one can do very well.

Since I don't have the short-term timing skills, I prefer to take "value" positions and wait however long it takes for my profit targets to be hit. For such kinds of "trades," which can extend over many weeks and many up-down cycles, shorting ultra-shorts is a safer bet than buying ultra-longs.

Regulators close failed banks in Ga., Calif.
Friday February 6, 10:05 pm ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Regulators close 2 failed banks in Calif., 1 in Georgia; 9 US bank failures this year

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Regulators on Friday closed FirstBank Financial Services in Georgia and two California banks, Alliance Bank and County Bank, marking nine failures this year of federally insured institutions.
ADVERTISEMENT

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was appointed receiver of the three banks. FirstBank Financial, based in McDonough, Ga., had $337 million in assets and $279 million in deposits as of Dec. 31. Alliance Bank, based in Culver City, Calif., had about $1.14 billion in assets and $951 million in deposits as of year's end. Merced, Calif.-based County Bank had around $1.7 billion in assets and $1.3 billion in deposits as of Feb. 2.

Twenty-five U.S. banks failed last year, far more than in the previous five years combined. The six failures announced in the last two weeks are double the total for all of 2007.

It's expected that many more banks won't survive this year amid the pressures of tumbling home prices, rising mortgage foreclosures and tighter credit. Some may have to merge with other institutions.

The FDIC said FirstBank Financial's deposits will be assumed by Regions Bank in Birmingham, Ala. Its four branches will reopen Monday as offices of Regions Bank. Regions Bank also agreed to buy around $17 million of FirstBank's assets; the FDIC will retain the rest for eventual sale.

Alliance Bank's deposits will be assumed by San Diego-based California Bank & Trust, which also agreed to buy about $1.12 billion in assets. The FDIC will keep the rest for eventual sale. In addition, California Bank & Trust agreed to share losses on the assets with the FDIC. Alliance Bank's five branches will reopen Monday as offices of California Bank & Trust.

Westamerica Bank, based in San Rafael, Calif., agreed to purchase all the deposits and assets of County Bank. Westamerica also is sharing losses with the FDIC. County Bank's 39 branches will reopen as branches of Westamerica, some on Saturday and others on Monday

Mark: what can't you do at Schwab? I have been using Scottrade until recently, but now I am switching to OptionsHouse -- can't beat $2.95 per stock trade and $9.95 per options trade flat fees!

David- Wow, I pay $7.98/trade, flat fee. I will look at OptionsHouse, thanks. Every time I look at a ultra etf on my trading screen, Schwab marks it "hard to borrow". I have tried 3 times to short stocks when this notice was in place and all three times the trades were "voided" a couple of days latter.
Thanks for all of the back ground work you have done on the ultras. It has been very helpful.

"Every time I look at a ultra etf on my trading screen, Schwab marks it "hard to borrow".

That's probably because people are catching up to the fact that shorting ultra-shorts is free money. :) I think most people play with these intraday, and hence it is hard to find shares to short on the days when an ultra-short is going down. With my trading approach, I short them when they spike up, and on such days ultra-short "shorters" run for covers and it is easy to find shares to short.

"Senate Deal Strips Energy Tax Break From Stimulus Bill"

http://tinyurl.com/dj9q4d

Key senators agreed to drop from economic stimulus legislation a tax break intended to spur new investment in solar and wind energy, as they moved to shave $18 billion in tax cuts from the bill.

The provision would have allowed solar and wind firms, and investors in those projects, to get refunds for taxes paid up to five years prior to a new project's completion.

>Take a look at the price today if you have the stomach.

took a look Mark. Ran screaming from the computer. Still puts a shiver down my spine...

good luck with that one.

Les.

2nd_ave,

We've seen it happen locally with smaller companies, usually it starts with reductions first, but sometimes in one direct hit. Expect to see more.

I wonder if Delphi is still headed by J.T, Battenberg lll. This guy was mentioned in "Who will tell the people", by Richard Greider. The mayor of a small village near Delphi's Mexico facility asked for help with water and sanitation issues brought on by Delphi's native employees moving in. He was told not to press the request or he would simply abandon the facility and move to China where labor was even cheaper.

J.T. was reported in a WSJ article that year (April 14, 2003, pg R7) to have made $3,700,000 in salary and bonus and a total $ of $6,745,000 in direct compensation.

I wonder just how badly HIS health care and insurance will suffer.

when market get overbought but then refuse to sell back to oversold territory, than it will keep going up and become more oversold. Soon this has to happen. So, I am thinking to bet as bullish
Buy, it also makes me think that violent move will occur. And if market might not go up a lot –it will go down a lot. And I should play bearish.
The market gapped higher Friday but upside breakouts has failed to hold in recent months.
Friday was best day so far this year for me
02/06/2009 YOU SOLD FAS
Shares: -1000.000 Price: $10.142
02/06/2009 YOU SOLD FITB
Shares: -4000.000 Price: $2.60
02/06/2009 YOU SOLD CLOSING TRANSACTION -OEWBR
Contracts: -10.000 Price: $22.00
02/06/2009 YOU SOLD RIO
Shares: -200.000 Price: $17.532
holding and added more UNG/UCO/USO/HNU and January 2011 Call option on SNDK/TXT/INTC

I recommend readers go read the Ray Dalio interview over at Barron's...very interesting.

"I recommend readers go read the Ray Dalio interview over at Barron's...very interesting."

Good article, thanks!

Try this link:
http://theeconomissed.blogspot.com/2009/02/barrons...

From a 2005 interview:

"Do you know that 44% of all corporate profits in the United States comes from the financial sector -- people who are shuffling money around? Only 10% comes from those who manufacture things."

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/07/ray...

repealing MTM - won't save their need for more capital as older assets will continue to perform worse.

It might dress up the appearance of their balance sheet but nothing more than that. It only address a symptom not the cause of the terminal disease.

How many CEOs or Gubermint higher ups in the past 15 months came out and said that they don't need capital or that the banking system is well capitalized? Countless... Don't believe them.

As far as purchasing their own shares? Well if you mad 22 million last year and you just spent just over a million to buy back shares, how much confidence is that, in your company?

Lets see some real skin, how about going out and investing in what you believe in! When i see them buy 2-3 million shares of their own stock, NOW WE ARE TALKING!

If we can't claw back their bonuses we should make them buy back their stock with old bonus money... or something like that.

Here mr executive - have a cup of toxic poison.

Who says employment figures lag the equities market? Is the attached graph of employment vs population ratio not worth a thousand words? (Notice the Jan 2007 peak...)

http://tinyurl.com/ckyjr5

"U.S. bank plan to offer asset support, mortgage help"

Here is my observation/opinion.

Bottom line my thoughts are that this will temporarily lift financials, lending, refinancing and all equities for a bit. The mother of all bear market rallies.

But I also feel this is the mother of all Bear Traps. Longer term i dont think they have really fixed anything for the American People. Just a big band aid and pain killers for a fatal gun shot wound. If i am a CEO or a Gnome, I am getting ready to sell my stocks received as compensation, which all tanked the past 16 months, into this bear market rally.

For me personally my bet short term is fas. If i see any home price improvement this spring from the new $15,000 home buyer aid, I will also sell my two rental properties into the housing rally.

between now and next 24 months i would expect gold to become a world safe haven, when they see the limits of what fiat money can or can't fix. and i am sure war with Afghanistan and tensions with Iran will also fuel gold too.

Very interesting CP. I had bought the laging indicator kool aid as well. I see that INDU peaked in the 1st half of October 2007, while the employment graph peaked in late 2006, a leading indicator at that point. I haven't been able to overlay the graphs, it would be interesting to see the employment graph, DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ all on the same graph.

"sounds like 15,000 nightmares coming true..."

This is what happens when your business falls off a cliff. The Japanese manufacturers don't have this kind of overhead to deal with (Ponder for a moment, the reasons for why they don't).

It sure does, those last two candlesticks confirm a bearish engulfing but will instantly turn bullish if the TARP/Stimulus plan disappoints... Boy I wish I'd held onto my SKF from when I was trying to trade it around $114... Maybe I'll load up the truck at $110, cause this BS ain't over if they don't do something about housing (job losses + mortgage defaults = additional bank losses).

Bigwad,

I scoured my NY Times this morning looking for references to the "Mafia run banks" you reference in your post. There is no harsher critic of both banks and the Mafia than myself, so it was with great enthusiasm and interest that I searched for the reference you cite, but I was unable to find it. Could you provide either the appropriate reference to the Mafia actually running banks or please confirm that you meant your comments to be literary as opposed to literal.

CP you are speaking my language!

Great posts...

Have a look at this chart, I found doing some reading.
http://timeswampland.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/j...

Is this our "normal" recession?

It seems every-time we get into one, people say this is the worst, this one will be the worst that this generation has seen, may even challenge two generations.

When do we get real job growth, with productivity?

http://tinyurl.com/clavtd
http://tinyurl.com/bzhhrq
http://tinyurl.com/2ol36e

http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2009/02
CP - Possibly an answer to the Lagging indicator conundrum
"As you can see, we have had far more job losses relative to output losses than any major post-war recession. This does not mean that more output losses are not coming, but it means that, perhaps unique to this recession, job losses are preceding rather than following output losses — in other words, job losses are occurring more than in any other recession based on the expectation of output losses, rather than in reaction to them."

Johnny, CP

Here's an overlay of Emp graph with DJIA, SP500 and the Naz. Would be better to have the raw data and plot it in Excel manually but this might help.

I did it by using PaintNet, free graphic editor, just copy in the Emp graph, then create another graph at Stockcharts (DJIA, SP500, Compq), then copy that into another layer in PaintNet, set the layer properties to be transparent, then move over the Emp chart and adjust the size to match. Then saved as a single layer gif and attached here.

I 2nd your recommendation after the Chicken.

Quasi - Good work, quite impressive!

The New Senate Plan
The compromise reached by Democratic leaders with moderate Republicans involves cuts to spending and tax-credit provisions in the stimulus bill before the Senate, including:
Here is three two of five cut they agree on
A $500 payroll tax credit for people earning less than $75,000
An expansion of tax credits for low-income workers with children

it says a lot about what they found to cut?
http://tinyurl.com/by8o62

norm - "Is this our "normal" recession?"

Well, I think not... Going by your chart, the previous two recessions are progressively worse in chronological order and obviously (assuming your chart is correct), this recession exceeds the magnitude of the previous two in all aspects.

There are a number of things about this recession that are quite different than previous recessions: a) The US trade imbalance is much greater than ever before. b) Real Estate prices have fallen dramatically and likely to fall more than ever before. c) Federal deficit is at an all time high. d) Deflation is appearing across the board (CPI is negative).

On and on, I'm no economist, just a schmuck trying to get his arms around the concepts.

Quasi - Thanks, I'll give it a whirl and post my results.

Here are some excerpts from the latest John Mauldin's letter:

"If earnings don't come in dramatically better for the first quarter as opposed to last quarter, we could be setting up for a nasty summer bear market. ... I see nothing on the horizon which suggests the economy is going to get manifestly stronger in the next two quarters. The real risk is that earnings come in weak for both quarters and investors simply despair this summer, throwing in the towel and bringing about a vicious bear market. I would seriously consider hedging any long positions you have before earnings season this next April. If they come in stronger, then we will see."

"The stimulus package is simply a pork-laden, misguided piece of legislation. ... There is way too much spending on items that have very little current effect on the economy. ... I am in principle in favor of a deep and large stimulus package. We need one, but what is on tap is not what will stimulate real job growth. All it does is create more debt that will have to be paid later by our kids."

I think the stock market is behaving now as if some noticeable economic improvements will come by the 2nd half of the year from the fiscal stimulus and bank aid plans. If what John Mauldin says about the proposed fiscal stimulus is true, then economy might keep getting worse throughout the whole 2009. And when the reality finally destroys hopes, we MIGHT very well get another nasty leg down in the stock market.

So as I wrote some time ago, my "working assumptions and game plan" have not changed. I agree with Don Coxe's observation that the recent great performance of commodities is setting up a nice general stock market rally. However, I think that it will be a bear market rally, and as 2nd_ave said, "it will be a rally we should all sell into." In particular, it will be very important to get rid of all ultra-long ETFs at the top, since they will lose 20-30% of their value if the market breaks down in May and comes back in 6 months. If the market comes back 1 year later to the same point, then the ultra-long ETFs will lose 50-60% of value during that year.

As for oil ETFs, another interesting fact I picked up from the latest Don Coxe's conference call (which turned out to be publicly available) is that the current situation is "eerily" similar to the 1974, and at that time oil was in contango for many years. Contango, he says, is a natural state of the oil market. Hence, keeping oil ETFs now long-term would encounter A LOT of headwind (I wrote more on this topic on Friday, when I said that I am all out of UCO and will now play ACI/BTU/SLX instead).

norm - Yes, Denninger has it right. I also think Obama understands what's going on... I saw this on his face the day he visited GW at the white house, he seemed to have a very long face after that visit.

From Shark yesterday .... "Also, I love the new 2 minute charts that Scottrade has. Seems better than either 1 minute or 5 minute ones in a lot of cases."

I too. Also the 13 minute chart seems nicer than 10 for the gist of the last several days.

The only "new" thing I don't like is that they have immobilized the ability to expand the chart to the right. I now live with too much white space on right.

I too don't like the immobilized chart margins, but for the opposite reason - I liked being able to move the right margin to the left, creating "future" space, so that I could extend trend lines into the future, and then pull the margin back to the right so I didn't have the white space. Let's hope it's just a bug and not a "feature".

EDC, (Thanks? — for the dramatic chart) CP, Johnny, 2nd_ave,

We hear a lot of talk as to whether the current situation is like the 1930s Great Depression or not. The nay-sayers point to the 25% or so, unemployment. While "official" data are rising, so far we are not there.

Forty years ago I was 6' 2" and my two sons were not close to my height. Today we celebrate my older son's 47th birthday — he is now 6' 5" and his "little brother is 6"4".

We just don't know yet and may not get an admission of a 25% rate any time soon, but it may be wise not to assume the data are all in yet. But... Do we have any reason to think congress will make wiser decisions now than back then?

[Side note: The Obama administration has announced it is taking the next census report directly into the White House. Does Rahm have something in mind?]

2nd_ave,

I notice Daniel Seddiqui is 26 years old, with a bachelor's degree. He makes no mention of a wife and/or kids.

Before you jump to any conclusions try a bit of "What If?" alternative thinking.

Better still, read "Nickle and Dimed" by Barbara Erhrenreich and "Selling Ben Cheever" by Benjamin Cheever (son of author John Cheever) These are similar stories with a far different picture.

-----------------

What If?

You are 45 to 50, one kid in college, another a senior in high school. Your employer has just announced the shift in operations to China. You have just lost the only job you ever had — worked your way up to a supervisory slot. Your 401(k) plan is your major investment other than your house. Any withdrawal will be penalized 10%.

The company has been the major employer in your city for nearly a century, now everyone is looking for work, the local housing market is suddenly flooded with homes, and you still owe $thousands on the mortgage.

You are trapped.

This is far more likely than the upbeat situation in Daniel Seddiqui's article. The movie rights will be shared with the hundreds of thousands, no, millions who are ahead of you in line.

"[Side note: The Obama administration has announced it is taking the next census report directly into the White House. Does Rahm have something in mind?]:

Grym

This is what scares me - the executive branch should not be allowed to have these powers... We can't trust our gubermint and we must maintain a check and balance.

Make my words, there is no benefit behind allowing the ChiTown Cronies to get away with crap.

Thank gosh the states are already catching on!

http://tinyurl.com/d5d4yw

Read post from blog, read comments below. It appears that 7 states are following New Hampshire's HCR - 6 (Jeffersonian Principles) and perhaps another 7 are in queue.

This is huge as it will reaffirm the states rights and potential succeed from the union.

"Before you jump to any conclusions try a bit of "What If?" alternative thinking."

Grym- I enjoy your posts, but they tend to be kind of grim...only half-joking..

The Daniel Seddiqui link was in fact (a) an alternative viewpoint, (b) not meant to apply to everyone, and (c) not meant to be taken seriously either as a viewpoint or one that (necessarily) applies to anyone but him. I just thought he came up with a creative solution that worked for him, and that anyone else out of a job may be inspired to come up with an equally creative approach to their own situation.

Speaking of alternative viewpoints, I was pondering the recent rise in media stories using sensory adaptation (the "boiled frog phenomenon") to illustrate how investors are just now waking up to the fact that their portfolios/mortgages/dreams somehow got 'cooked' by a combination of misguided monetary policies and Wall Street greed. Maybe. On the other hand, I wouldn't be too eager to buy into that viewpoint.

Positive examples of sensory adaptation in life greatly outweigh the negative stories:

(a) We all grow up with 'role models' or mental images of the man/woman we want to be. Somehow, over a generation or so, we somehow find we've become the person we wanted to be. One day we look in the mirror and (hopefully) see that image looking back. But we've been completely unaware of the process, which occurred in the small decisions we make each day.

(b) I see examples on this blog of people who found themselves caught in last fall's downdraft, but who have taken small steps each day to work their portfolios back. They will one day wake up to find balances back to where they were, along with the skills necessary to keep them growing. In stark contrast to the frogs who remain convinced they have been cooked, and have given up.

(c) ["Forty years ago I was 6' 2" and my two sons were not close to my height. Today we celebrate my older son's 47th birthday — he is now 6' 5" and his 'little' brother is 6'4".] Another great example of sensory adaptation. Forty years ago I was a high school freshman with little sense of my 'self.' I was maybe 5'8" and looked 'up' to adults who were taller and (seemingly) more self-possessed. Today I am 6'1", still childishly hoping my youngest will someday surpass me in height (not blind to what 'works' in this world) and will (usually) 'see' a person for who he is, with a lifetime of acquired sensitivities/understandings/empathy to guide my perceptions.

(d) Things are in fact grim right now. But why not look beyond that to a more optimistic future? If you don't have optimism, it lessens your chances of making positive moves. Was it Hoover's policies that brought American out of the Depression? Was it WWII? Who really knows? What we do know is each American made small decisions on a daily basis for his/her family or at his/her job, and they somehow added up to an era of prosperity that gave most of us here childhood experiences unmatched anywhere else in the world. I think we come out of this recession easier than people think. I also think we continue to underestimate Obama's capabilities- he will leave behind a great legacy. Can't stay grim, Grym.

Craig,

The whole point of a Republic is to serve the people. The executive branch has gotten out of hand, no thanks to our prior leader GW. The people used to be on top and the government was below, well over the past 100 years that has flipped.

Creating a Czar or new position or cabinet post or more government is the problem. It takes money from the private sector and puts it in your governments hands.

The white house can't even VET their own cabinet leaders. Something is obvious, either someone is so arrogant they didn't care to stop and think. Or these players were pre-selected by the "committee" before. Either reason is absurd. We have elected GW2 into office except this guy has a 80% approval rating, which will only go down. Noting absolutely nothing he has done so far has benefited our society. Maybe one, thing as far as setting up a transparency website about how money is being allocated and spent, but will be nothing more than a slight of hand, nothing else.

The crime continues and the sheeple have "hope".

States rights - Cali - Cali is the worst state in the union, I feel for those who live there as I have many friends. This state is so mismanaged it is sad and despicable. Blame arnold yeah we can but we must blame the entitled citizens, yes you and all of you. Simple fact is the state hands out to much freebie stuff, we are a republic not a socialist society. More socialistic stuff, pulls or creates more "fantasy land". Meaning, more public support, more wasted dollars and more money must be created which destroys actual wealth around the rest of the union.

Anything that the gubermint charges for control is Mal-investment, nothing more than that. It is part of the problem.

HCR - 6 - reaffirms the states rights - if the Government crosses the line, federal government, then it is DONE! Gone. The point of our republic was that States came together to form it. Hence the ratification process of the constitution. We are nothing more than the "united states" not America. We speak english, not american. We must realize and remember that state rights should supersede federal rights.

As time goes, on and the credit crisis morphs into the economic crisis, social mood will change, behaviors will change.

The revolution will start and I applaud those states who are putting forth such legislation. That is the first step to get the ball rolling. The larger this government gets, the longer it will take to get this crisis past us.

Okay shark, My Mom had a 911 call yesterday and had a massive heart attack and seizure in the ER. They shocked her twice and brought her back, but told us to not expect her to survive. She was too weak for angio so they put her on a clot buster med and a while later she was arguing with the nurses, so I know her inner Irish is coming out and she will be fine. The critical time is the next 48 hours.

How's THAT for perspective?

Maybe we can get your sister and my brother together for some group torture.
Hang in there.....

http://tinyurl.com/bne23v
"Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will unveil the eagerly-awaited announcement of the TARP overhaul a day later than planned in order to focus on stimulus."

http://tinyurl.com/c7tm95

NYU- Thanks for the comments on Friday. Any one get the feeling these guys don't know what to do and are afraid to pull the trigger? Afraid of the markets reaction and plunging us deeper in this recession?
Took the family out for dinner last night under the guise of a "family night out". When in fact I was interested in seeing how busy some of the local chains were fairing. (Think Outback Steak House type.) Much to my surprise, all for of the places we went to had lines out the door and long waits. We finally found a place where the wait was only 1/2 hour. But buy then it was 9:00.
Shark- I hope all works out. I know I'm new here and hope you take this the way it is intended; simply a few words from someone who went down a very slippery slope with booze a long time ago and made it out. No, I'm not in AA or anything along those lines. I just found my life was much easier and more profitable cutting back. Take care. As 2nd pointed out earlier, I too had people I looked up to as a kid and wanted/hoped that some day I might be the one my kids see when they look in the mirror years from now. Take care.

Helium was up, feathers were down. Paper was stationary.
Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading. Knives were up sharply.
Cows steered into a bull market. Pencils lost a few points.
Hiking equipment was trailing.
Elevators rose, while escalators continued their slow decline.
Weights were up in heavy trading.
Light switches were off.
Mining equipment hit rock bottom. Diapers remain unchanged.
Shipping lines stayed at an even keel.
The market for raisins dried up.
Coca Cola fizzled.
Caterpillar stock inched up a bit.
Sun peaked at midday.
Balloon prices were inflated.
And Scott Tissue touched a new bottom.
And batteries exploded in an attempt to recharge the market...

Craig
tender loving care has uniformly been recognized as a valuable element in healing
Good luck to you and your family

Craig,

You are my brother and will always be.

My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family, Craig.

Regards,
BH

After decimating the Republicans, one has to wonder what they are worried about.

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=8...