Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Jan. 2, 2009

Good morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

Tele,

There is a critical aspect to Darwinian evolution that many people are unaware of, not saying this about you.

Evolution is NOT a game of seeing which organism can personally "adapt" to his environment and then thrive. Evolution is a game of seeing which RANDOM GENETIC mutations (DNA failures, essentially) subsequently, and only in hindsight prove to "accidentally" cause changes in certain members of a species which later prove advantageous. It is not a "smart" system, but a purely random one, making this great orchestra of life, in which we all play only a few measures, more of a cacophony than, say, Beethoven's Fifth (Scotch, I wonder?).

Shark, this is a very insightful view into Darwin by you. Thanks.

As traders we need to adapt to what the charts say and as traders we best develop a smart /intelligent approach since a random approach would most likely lead to the depletion of wealth, luck notwithstanding.

Reminds me of what Joe Ross would say “Joe never trade what you think, only trade what you see.”

So it turns out, overlaying Kaimu's Tax Revenues chart over a 10 year USDX historical chart http://tinyurl.com/9r2zj5 shows a pretty good correlation with the descent of the buck at the start of 2002. (You'll have to do the overlaying by eyeball, I'm not a chart wizard, alas). I'm thinking the only thing possibly stopping a replay of USD:2002 might be that the other currencies are in the tank almost as bad as we are this time.

So maybe the trade isn't shorting USDX, but instead, USD vs gold, like Bill suggests. But perhaps that withholding taxes chart can still give us a useful signal for us to buy gold on or about the time it goes seriously negative.

Not to quibble, but Beethoven's Fifth is also a cacophony if you play only a few bars - it's music only when you listen carefully to an entire passage, through to resolution.

For example, the best traders are able to absorb market losses and setbacks and say "Hey, thanks for the lessons, mr. market."

This is not a case of accidental genetic mutation at work.

But then again, maybe it is.

Right...An example...The current Law School Admissions Test isn't really
"do-able", even for most of those who succeed to score well and go on to be admitted to law school. What happens is, they answer 50 questions right, guess well on another 30 questions and accidentally ace the 20 questions that they had no idea about. Of the hundreds of thousands who take this test per annum, enuff do so to fill the top seats. Is this the best way to select law stucents? That isn't even the question, is it?

If one uses Elder's Triple Screen system (not to be confused with Cara/Korvus Triple RSI screen), the broad indices are still in downtrends, using a 26 week EMA.

However using the Cara/Korvus Triple RSI, looking for capitulation on the 7 day RSI <10, and max pain option calculator, there have been positive trades on the long side.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/03/04...

FWIW, do ur own homework.

LQD

ETF. It's also a good tell IMO.

And because of social or cultural evolution in the recent past, say the last 10,000 years or so, Man is now the only species that has to some extent broken free from the bonds of genetic evolution. In other words Man makes conscious decisions to take this or that path in life. Man may or may not reproduce, may have medical intervention to help defeat a genetic problem, etc. Social evolution has supplanted genetic evolution in mankind. Not so in all (or nearly all) other species which are basically robots controlled by their genes. Genetic evolution is also many orders of magnitude slower than social evolution, which is why other species for the most part cannot adapt to the environmental changes (social decisions) of Man.

ALOHA!!

Well, perhaps this explains why Darwin abandoned Wall Street!!

As is with all "unions", to get in it is more who you know and not what you know. Perhaps this nepotism is what sunk Wall Street or is it just plain IDIOCRACY at this point? The inbreeding of idiots to idiots!

Carry on ...

READ ON:Thursday, January 01, 2009
Not Exactly Brain Surgery

During 2008, a misperception that seemed to become accepted as fact is "the smartest guys in the room" meme: the idea that Manhattan's canyons are brimming with PhDs and assorted geniuses who, via sheer brain power, should have managed risk better. The idealization of Wall Street's grey matter is nothing new, of course. Much of it is propagated by starry-eyed journalists who dream of getting hired on the Street one day or have accepted too many lunch invitations from high-priced publicists.

Post B-school, I was a market maker and position trader for one of the top firms on Wall Street -- one that's often portrayed by the media as white-shoe, prestigious, and full of smart people. Our desk was seen as "big swinging d*cks" by our competitors, a compliment that meant we pretty much determined the market in whatever we traded and we could tap a lot of our firm's almost unlimited capital. Frankly, I was amazed by how dumb some of my colleagues were. During my first week, one of the senior traders on the desk asked me a question that the average customer of any online discount brokerage would be able to answer. Several of the most senior guys on the desk never went to college or barely made it through some party school -- not that a college degree or one from a top school denotes intelligence, but this is a firm that likes to cultivate a perception of rigorous hiring standards. The point is that once they got in, often as runners, clerks, or ticket-punchers, these guys succeeded for reasons other than conventional book smarts. The culture rewards speed, opportunism, and quite often recklessness. It does not reward what most people consider "intelligence" -- advanced mathematics ability, or knowing or caring about the difference between Shia and Sunni.

Two qualifications. First, Wall Street is not monolithic. Different types of firms -- private equity, investment banks, hedge funds, boutique research shops -- attract different types of people. Second, the firms themselves aren't necessarily monolithic. The culture inside the larger ones can vary. While traders toss around one-liners from Caddyshack, one floor up in wealth management they're quoting passages from The Shawshank Redemption. But the bottom line is this: in the parts of these firms that took on crippling and in some cases fatal positions, Thucydides's "frantic energy was the true quality of a man" describes the underlying ethos. It's not introspection, perspective, or caution. That's for the saps in Compliance.

It didn't surprise me in October when Alan Greenspan confessed to Congress that he had found "a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." Having never worked in the part of Wall Street that really matters, and calmly pondering the world during his famous pre-dawn bathtub sessions, he was clueless about the real nature of the system he purportedly oversaw. Avoiding a similar meltdown in the future will require debunking the myth of Wall Street genius, and understanding why effective risk management and jokes about gopher-infested golf courses might be mutually exclusive.

posted by The Cunning Realist

"We're in for a little bear market rally, not the beginning of a strong new bull."

What do you base this on?

(BTW - I have a similar feeling)

"The inbreeding of idiots to idiots!"

It's similar, but not precisely the same phenomenon Ancient Romans suffered. We're witnessing a severe form reverse evolution, where eventually the young are cannibalized.

Another in a series of charts showing the depth and speed of the Fall '08 crash and recovery.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EMB&p=D&b=1&g=0&i...

Shouldn't be long now for equities to show a lot of buying interest. What a glorious opportunity that Oct 20 - Nov 20 period was. As I remember it, Bill could hardly contain himself with all his buy alerts :P

It was due. So are a lot of others I'm watching.

Bill Cara mentioned this interview and requested a link for it. Here it is in long form (just curious about the need for a "tiny url":

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms:/...

any news?

Here's the one Bill wants, I think:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms:/...

Long alcoa

"any news"

My silly man, read THE Blog!!!! (Ok?) :)

"If men get lucky it's because a man tried and a woman chose."

True, taller men generally earn higher wages, as do good looking ones. Even so, I'm experiencing much greater difficulty in comparison to my stud horse...

Not to sound flippant as the title suggests but this was is an excerpt from Dennis Gartman today and follows on Don Coxe's earlier call (Spring 2008) on diminished sun spot activity and temperature. This bodes well for higher energy prices as '09 progresses. FD I am long ECA, POU, PBG, PMG, HOU, BNE on the TSX.
AL GORE WHERE ARE YOU?: Our old friend, Art Cashin of UBS New York Stock Exchange floor fame, sent us the following note on Wednesday which we think worthy of being sent to our clients around the world. After reading it, we wonder what Al Gore or Dr. Suzuki or the other global warming miliionaires are thinking regarding the year past and the year forward:

'According to the National Climatic Data Center, 2008 will be America's coldest year since 1997, thanks to La Nina and precipitation in the central and eastern states. Solar quietude also may underlie global cooling. This year's sunspots and solar radiation approach the minimum in the sun's cycle, corresponding with lower earth temperatures.'

This echoes Harvard-Smithsonian astrophysicist Dr. Sallie Baliunas' belief that solar variability, much more than carbon dioxide, sways global temperatures. We have always been more than modestly skeptical of the “Global Warming” thesis, and certainly we have been skeptical of the blame given to humans for any warming that might have developed, and we are all the more skeptical that it is autos, and factories, and the things of modern life that have raised temperatures if at all. We are skeptical simply because temperatures on the earth were warmer…and indeed far warmer…many times in the past, long before man existed, and obviously long before machinery and modernity. Too, we note that Mars has warmed and cooled over the millennia, and to the best of our knowledge there have been very few SUVs on Mars, nor factories, nor modernity to deal with. Clearly there is something more at work here other than men and machinery.
Worse, for the global warming believers is the recent several month’s data regarding sun spot activity. There is a strong, short term correlation between sun spots and temperatures, with smaller numbers of spots leading to cooler… even colder temperatures…and larger numbers leading to warmer temps. Since the autumn here in the northern latitudes, sunspot activity has not only been modest, it has for weeks been non-existent, arguing for a very cold winter in the northern hemisphere. We are seeing that now, and we wonder “Where is Al Gore?” and if Dr. Suzuki is wearing warm socks with his Berkenstock sandals.
These are reasonable questions. “Al, wherefore art thou?”

Greg,

when it comes to charts and tech indicators, I am on a side of "as simple as it gets". Charts with quadrillion of lines of all thinkable colors fanning out under all thinkable angles - can't think of better way to cloud the simple reality of price and volume.

I have on my charts: volume, 20 MA and Bollinger bands. For BBs, my settings are somewhat different from default: 1 keep it at 13 and standard deviation 2 for intraday chart while leaving 20 on daily chart. Both MA and BBs play mostly supporting role in my entries and exits, I don't use them as signals per se.

There’s been a lot of hype of movement from US Treasuries to corporate bond market over the past few weeks . . . it’s true. Why accept extremely low yields on USTs when the historical spread with corporate is way out of whack . . . of course the financial crisis gave us the situation and everyone was thrown out with the bathwater. . . but there are opportunities and not everyone is GM.

That said, the smart money started moving in this direction right after Thanksgiving . . . now the media hype to bring more on board although it appears there could be further upward movement if you check the monthly chart . . . however a quick rise and RSI 7 for D and W well over 70. Monthly will catch up.

As some leave the Treasuries looking for more yield, their choices (other than a bond fund) are bonds or equity or both (hybrid).
Yes, LQD can rise further although the real big move is already booked. Monitor the RSI7.

I have no position, but monitor as a tell where bond money may be going. A quick yahoo chart of LQD with an overlay of TLT shows the divergence this year. I’d expect them to return to normal later this year, maybe early next year, but not immediately. Remember Fed would like to keep interest rates low for the housing situation.

http://tinyurl.com/9n5oe5

Just my 2 cents. DOYDD.

Thanks Vad,
Although Ameritrade does not have that many indicators or ability to manipulate the current ones, I was able to make the changes to match your screen. Outside of that, do you first look to 1 minute chart patterns and pivot points off of other time intervals to start your process to buy/sell?

Out of SSO @ 27.15 with small gain.

DNA is a really amazing molecule. Scientists still do not know very much about all the ways in which it works. Contrary to what weve been taught over the past couple of decades since the elucidative work of watson, crick, and many other hard working researchers, these molecules are not the static entities first described. They behave under different conditions in ways we do not fully understand. And in ways that violate our narrow darwinian notions.

For instance, researchers have discovered that DNA molecules can spin photons and that these photonic spins are maintained by the photon well after the molecules are removed. This same spin-state photonic phenomena is currently being used in our most sophisticated encryption technologies. When we are angry, or emotionally "tense", our dna is wound more tightly and less accessible to transcription machinery... meaning that cells do not make their entire array of essential proteins. When we are happy, this consolidation state reverses and our DNA relaxes becoming accessible once again. AS the molecule relaxes, it also releases photons, and these photons travel throughout our body interacting with additional DNA molecules within other cells... very likely this represents a second messaging system that science has not yet begun to model or evaluate.

In many ways, DNA mutation, alteration, and "drift" violate the very tenets of Darwinism. As such, this theory will have to be rewritten in humanity's future....

SPX hitting 50 DEMA. Trailing a buy stop of $1. risk is increasing imo.

Well CP, in some things in life it's better to avoid comparisons!
Luckily, mares and *most* human women have a slightly different standard....your mane isn't as big and something tells me you lose a bit of credibility if you arch your neck and prance for your wife.....

Bill wrote that he thinks TCK becomes a teenager.

Nice to be in TCK and SNDK today.

thanks Craig - I will hold. Maybe a good selling point will be when it hits RSI 70+ on the weekly.

I'm holding TCK well in the green and moving up the stop limit....

trailing 1/3 10 day ATR sell stop (40 cent) to protect gain.

Al Gore is an absolute hypocrite.
Someone like Ed Begley Jr. is a person I look up to much more.
Strange since I hate most of the hollywood type that drive to the award shows in an electric car. Then take a private jet to their villa in Spain.
If you are going to preach about something, make sure you practice what you preach.

As CP says, raise the stops. It's clear where this one wants to go:

Long seagate STX

Nice intraday chart: broke above Wednesday's [edited. Not yesterday] high, tested it and took off again.

"Tell us, what is the word for those who ignore facts that contradict a particular political bias?"

I'm not good with resolving nested double-negatives, however facts confirmed by scientific means are facts, while political motivation often possesses a DNA of unrelated persuasion.

Yep, and TLT is down ~2%. The MACD on the daily is curling over like a dying flower.

Looks like this bubble may bursting.

I'm long TBT.

Has anyone done any research on ACAS? I've looked quickly at the list of the companies they own and it seems very well diversified. The stock price is down significantly. In q3 they lost a significant amount of money and the company is at risk of breaching its $4.5 billion minimum net worth covenant in its debt agreements. If the company's net worth falls below that level, its lenders could demand their money back sooner.

On the flip side, there is a lot of insider buying going on. Could be a nice little flyer to take.

This guy is kind of irritating to listen to. I agree with what he's saying, but the way he says it sounds like he's annoyed that he has to answer questions.

greg, I use Ameritrade. On their Streamer Suite click on charts. you have a wide range time periods,indicators, etc. to choose from. I use 2 days, 10 min, ema 30,Bollinger 9,Slow stoch,MACD,RSI 7. Click on the wrench(tools)right above Enter symbols to make changes.
Happy New Year!
Bear E

The following popped up on my stock screen this morning. Of those listed, both USO and OIL showed up yesterday as well. Am long all but USO (spreads were narrower on OIL). Those interested in taking a look will noticed decided similarities in 6-month charts of each, with all exhibiting possible upward breaks from long-term downtrends.

USO/OIL/MXWL/HEK/MWE/GEL/BANR/SCS

This same screen picked out AMCN, AREX, DRYS, PCK, PMX, PZC, SJT and TRP in the last few days. Currently long and mostly in the green on these as well.

Screen looks for stocks which are below long-term moving averages but above short-term averages, and which have moved up rapidly today on significantly higher volume. Screen typically returns three to five stocks at a time, based on real-time info. Some reappear several days in a row (e.g., SCS and USO today). I use a free service (prophet.net) to run this scan.

I found it interesting that a large number of muni-bond ETFs showed up on the screen several days ago and see this as a move away from Treasuries in search for yield.

Not advice. Do your own due diligence.
Happy New Year and Good Trading All!

aapl flew through 88 and might fly through 89...love it.

Just remember that stop limits may not protect you from a sudden big downward move, as your limit may get jumped over leaving you without a fill. Also, stops can get taken out well below your intended exit point on overnight moves. Long puts offer better protection (at a price).

2nd_Ave would no doubt include position sizing as a key to risk management.

Actually, Darwin isn't responsible for our knowledge of genetics. He described the process.

It was Mendel that gave us simple genetics and that not only has been proven but further refined to include all those mutations, variables, partial penetrance, poly-genetic traits, etc. Mapping the DNA of various animals including man are surely revealing more and more information that is giving us many new tools for revealing genetic diseases and measures that can be taken to avoid and treat these diseases.
My dogs undergo a number of DNA screening tests that allow me to make better reproducive decisions and many of these were designed for dogs knowing they would have a human application.

Consider the old way involved multiple test breedings to reveal traits numerically, then applying that data within a chart.

Now we have hard data from blood tests for individuals, many that reveal the genotype of parents, one parent or another, and families.

I'm interested....photons are light. How is light breaking the laws of physics and traveling through tissue? Sounds like the spaghetti monster theory. :>) But people thought the same of Mendel and Darwin.

Now we use their "theories" to jail or free criminals, test paternity/maternity, avoid inherited disease, solve crimes, improve livestock production, vegetable and fruit production, insect and pest control, etc. Some "theory"!

Looks like bac is making the move north. Goodie!
My question is.....should Madoff file his Presidential Pardon papers with the Justice Dept now in hopes of leap frogging the real criminals, or stay hold up in his 7 million dollar apartment for a few more years until he gets the SEC to drop all charges and accept him back into the good-ol-boys club?

Sharky must have just sold out

"I'm interested....photons are light. How is light breaking the laws of physics and traveling through tissue? Sounds like the spaghetti monster theory. :>) But people thought the same of Mendel and Darwin."

Perhaps this will lead to an explanation for spontaneous combustion? Photon bombardment of inflammable hydrogen/oxygen concentrations cause the molecules to "spin" and ignite due to the friction of collision. This is an old and effective method of generating ultra-pure water.

I'm hearing there might not be a Gaza ground assault...

Into TZA @ $45.40 in opposition to my TA analysis...

This is a "junk" article. "Ice is not disappearing". Really? Look at the before and after satellite images of the Artic, of most of the world's glaciers. Ice is in retreat in a major way. Keep this point in mind: All of the carbon that was sequestered in plants that became coal and oil over tens of millions of years is being placed back into the atmosphere in a few hundred years. The weight of science says that higher carbon levels in the air causes warming. Major warming has started and will accelerate. Don't base your conclusion on one article. Look at the overwhelming weight of science, which has found that global warming is fact.

Yes Nemo I cashed out of everything profitable. 3 winners today.

Cpookie

Thanks for asking, otherwise I would not say what I am about to say because I have no deep understanding of either the market or the economy.

I think there will be a little rally because 1) the mkt was oversold in Nov/08, 2) there's a perception that things can't get much worse, 3) there's the hope Obama will use your tax $ to keep the economy going come hell or high water and 4) there is loads of cash on the sidelines.

I disagree with 2 (I think things can get much worse - all the negatives are not yet baked into the market), 3 (will public works put out-of-work lawyers, teckies, accountants and such to work?) and 4 (there's a s-load of cash out there but where is it going to go: equities? bonds? commodities? I'm betting with Rogers: commodities - things we just HAVE to have.

I think the bear will reassert after this runup for several reasons including A) because the US consumer (accounting for huge slice of GDP) is tired and scared, B) because US consumers are, belatedly, beginning to save, and C) because I think massive inflation will arrive eventually and all but destroy the purchasing power of the US dollar.

There's more but I am already embarrassed.

Global warming is more complex than a single temperature trend of a few seasons. We are talking Ice Age and polar reversals caused by interruption of the major ocean flows which currently run our seasonal shifts. Gore and Suzuki are not predicting a mere heat wave.

should probably consider selling calls, no? even if the deal gets done, the odds it gets done at the same price are probably diminishing. we've seen this in so many other deals...

If we are up one First and first 10 days of January, we will be up for this year.
If we break 930 on S&P we will be going higher.
That is opinion from here. Let’s see
Still holding TBT/FAS/TNA which I got few days ago

my quick TA for the HGU (gold stock 2x on the TSX)

we are up against a fib retracement level on weak volume, w/ the RSI-7 negatively diverging from past readings and STO about to cross downwards.

its difficult to read too much into volume studies from the past week or so but with gold up against resistance in the $880 range ive reduced my HGU a bit, and plan to get back in should it move down towards $12 again, or if gold breaks through $890 on power along w/ the shares.

USD advancing today and the USDX chart will be looking like its read for a small bounce here, RSI about to turn up which is no good for gold right here.
next couple of sessions will give a much clearer picture of whats to come.

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2dirhgy&s=5

long joy global

Less than 2 month ago (november 13) I sold TBT at 63.00. I expect in next (less than 2 month) it will be around 50

Seems to be up nicely as the JR's and others have had the Lehman forced sale and tax loss selling off it's back.

Sold my WFR that i bought on margin at $13.3 at $15.67. I don't like holding on margin. One important note on this one, though, is that it is going to close right around it's 50 day MA of $15.62.

I bought some BGZ (triple bear large caps) at $52.63 just for a trade.

It is not often the DOW soars with the USD, especially after the release of horrific economic data - ISM manufacturing. There was even a time not so long ago that a sharp rise in crude oil was bad for the general stock market. With earnings season right around the corner, we will see if this potential "sucker's" rally can be maintained. Lollipop anyone?

Don't have enough confidence that the bull is back yet. Could end up having the bear back by Monday. If banks lead the charge out of the bear market, then holding bac would of made sense. A bear market next week, and bac will be an excellent choice for a short.
Bought Fannie just before the close, seems to have a little upside built into it Monday when all the fed money reaches out for the liar loan crap.
Still hold a keg full of yhoo on a m&a hail mary. Anything over 13.39 average is sure welcome news. In the mean time, still under H2O.

DJIA move today, 258.30 10 day ATR 254.35
SPX 28.55/28.02
RUT 6.37/19.63

Average move for DJIA/SPX and below for Russell 2000.

today...up across the board, right? ;)

Curious about opinions on the Ark Aston Hill Energy Class fund, for a long term holding. Bill has expressed that he likes the work of Ms. Hruska. Her fund is down about 60% since Feb, tracking oil very closely. All I worry about is the risk of default of the fund, has anybody any stories about something like this happening? Anyone have an opinion on this one?
I'm very weary of the double leverage ETF's, in a horizontal range bound market you'll get creamed holding one of them, and given the volatility of oil lately, unless you have a crystal ball, these are only good for extremely short term trades IMO. USO may be a more prudent bet. Now if I'm buying in CDN currency, can the risk of a falling USD be hedged by buying a short USD etf in CDN funds? the only problem is I can only find the horizon 2x etf's in canada to trade the underlying commodity/currency without going into futures market/fx.

From where does one obtain live (real time, not delayed) spot gold prices during the North American trading day?

Kitco has 24 hour spot gold and silver prices.

http://tinyurl.com/8wj8gt

i guess i've followed Travolta's career partly because we were born the same year, and I can use Carrie, the Sweathogs, Saturday Night Fever, and Pulp Fiction to chronologically mark turning points in my own life...his son was born a year later than my daughter...

2nd
Started New Year with good note. Plan is to keep 50% cash all the time and use 20% for speculative trade lik oex option. Use 30% for ETF like QLD. And nod few stock.
Will use very tight stop for next three month to see what result are. Now I have little knowledge about market and will take note from Bill’s WIR and daily report to understand how he feels about market.
I am also confused about OEXAH which I brought last week at 11.00 and was under water. Fidelity put it cost at 6.60 -closing price of 12/31/2008 as my cost basis. I got to figure out how this thing works
Also will not post any OEX trade now on. And will spend more time studying all the post here than
Posting. Because of time limit I do not read any other blog. Read only Barron/WSJ/MARKET WATCH and seeking alpha. Plan to quit my Job this year and wants to stay home about a year before I decide if I want to go back for few years.
In my younger days I did worked two and few time three jobs to pay off mortgage. My wife also worked two jobs on and off, now is the time to have some fun.
I must thanks Bill and all posters here, especially You/Craig/shark/number2 and many I wish I can mention all of them. Because of you all --I did well in 2008 and started 2009 with high note.

Hi Everyone,
I just created my user account here after visiting this site nearly every day for a few months. This community has made my short list for providing valuable insights into the current market (thanks, Bill & Community Members). I'm also currently following the comments of Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, Doug Kass and Danielle Park. During the 1982 - 2000 secular bull, I never paid attention to any macro-economic concerns, mainly because I didn't know any better. I only did bottoms-up analysis. I did love watching Louis Rukeyser and miss him greatly. I was fortunately able to sense the danger right at the tech/dot-com bubble peak and get out. However, in this downturn I only saw the danger to financials from the mortgage defaults, not to the whole world's economy (I didn't know about CDS's, etc. until it was too late). My lifeboat of mainly commodities and foreign stocks thus sunk this past summer. I'm still sitting in that submerged lifeboat, because they still seem to me to be the best long term choices for investment. In fact, my most recent buys were CLR & UPL and now I am hoping for another big step down in gold to add another miner (Is hope an investment strategy?). I am not a day trader, my investments/speculations are anywhere from two weeks to ten years and I don't leverage. My day job is in US manufacturing and my goal is to retire sooner rather than later. Anyway, that's who I am, so if I ever have a comment to make, you will have some reference instead of "Who the heck is that?". Wishing everyone a prosperous new year.

Welcome Rhallbick! Good luck to you and your retirement goals.

I am not a scientist but I am sceptical either way on this argument. Tell me, have the poles and Kilomanjaro ever melted before mankind appeared? Have the CO2 levels been as high as they are now before mankind appeared? I am advised that the answer is yes to both on multiple occasions. Like Y2K (remember that "When the Bell tolls") many are making super-profits from fear, not reasoned science. Politicians are going to waste too much of our money on this latest scare to the benefit of the next crowd of opportunistic crooks. Unfortunately we don't have a Y2K type cut off so this propogation will likely last for a generation at least.

On the other hand there is something to be said that burning and spewing millions of tons of petroleum products into the air does not make sense. Do we really need to consume at the current levels? Clearly the answer is no. The Europeans have reduced their consumption through high petrol taxes. The US remains the highest per capita user of gasoline and will likely remain so unless Obama introduces a graduated petrol tax and influences comsumption through price elasticity. Such taxes could then be used for alternate sources of energy and provide tax reductions for developers/producers for a limited period of time.

In the meantime we consider how to make money out of this in an ethical manner.

"When everyone agrees, everyone is usually wrong"

I totally agree. I'll go back in the archives and find what I posted on this subject last year... If you're not interested, just hit me with the ignore button....forewarned, hehe. Really though, talking about these things can ONLY help. We'd better figure this out together; I think it would be in all of our best interest to get it right.

Talk about Darwinian genetics, this one goes in the OhMyGod file:

They were sent to Disneyland for six days.

Upon their return, they were given a brand-spankin' new luxury home (4br, 3car garage, 4 fireplaces, music room, solarium, big spiffy yard with cypress and magnolia trees). Materials and labor valued at over $450,000 - donated by Beazer Homes and over 1800 volunteers. Gratis.

They were given $100,000 cash - enough for 25yrs worth of property taxes.

But wait, there's more: Beazer raised $250,000 in contributions for the kids' scholarships and a home maintenance fund.

And still, they managed to screw it up.

from the Washington Post: http://tinyurl.com/6bo3mo
from USNews & World Report: http://tinyurl.com/5qg5nf
from the Wall Street Journal: http://tinyurl.com/6awjcb
from WSBTV Atlanta: http://tinyurl.com/6fqckr

But hey, they're not the only ones: http://tinyurl.com/687x55

Hey Yaba,

Here is a link to comments on Bill's blog about this time last year (Just do a "find" on the html page for "MtnGntx". The links provided in the discourse should get you going.

http://tinyurl.com/7856ly

Sincerely,

MtnGntx,
Interested in your comment "unrelenting numbers of scientists bailing out". Do you have some information about this I can use. I'm a great believer in understanding both sides of an argument but there is precious little in the press re skepticism on the Global Warming industry.

A Happy, Prosperous Year to everyone .... most of us need it!

I've just spent two weeks in Vietnam travelling from the Mekong Delta through to Saigon, the old DMZ and onto Hanoi and have to say I'm very impressed. In the period since I was last there 40 years ago I'm amazed at their progress. The road from Saigon to the Delta is full of very large factories, most subsidiaries of international companies. The same applies along the road from Hanoi to Halong Bay and Haiphong, the nations primary deep water ports. Vietnam Airlines is a quality act. It appears to be fully modern-Boeing equiped and flies on time!

The people, whilst operating in a communist political environment, are enthused and highly commercial as appears to be their government. From my reading of english language newspapers the local press seems able to critise the government although I can't verify if this applies to the Vietnamese language press.

I for one will be looking to put a small percentage of the nest egg in a Vietnamese ETF or fund. Can anyone recommend a suitable fund/etf?

seadog - Vad uses what works for him. My style seems similar in some respects to yours. I use both BB's and Envelopes but more for detecting possible locations for turns than anything else. You mentioned compressions and BB's are great for showing trading range trades (in retrospect sometimes). Also, I find that expanding the period from that of the basic 20 to double or more and sometimes (like for Gold) using a BB of 2.5 vs the standard of 2 is more helpful in seeing the longer term range trades, but each to his own.

Here is a link with some good information on BB's for any who would like to read it:
http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/hrebands.htm

I think we have gotten far off point with the science stuff, but I am utterly shocked and saddened by what I have read here in the past day. One example: "Darwin was a fool but believed his pseudo science". That is a patently false statement, which in my opinion is not worthy of posting on this site. 100 years of study and observation backs the fact that Darwin was one of the most influential scientists in history. His theory of evolution has been proven correct by fossil evidence and by molecular studies confirming that genetic mutation drives evolution, and that humans are related to all other forms of life on this planet, i.e. apes, cats, trees, you name it. Sadly, our wanton destruction of the environment and climate is destroying our beautiful relatives, and is destroying our children’s future. Apparently some posters to this site believe that science requires a unanimous opinion on an issue. It does not. It is not faith based. It is a rigorous process where a phenomenon is observed and studied. There is "back and forth" argument, depending on which way the evidence points, depending on points of view. The evidence on climate change overwhelmingly points toward catastrophic warming. Most of the debate is about the timeline and degree of warming. The science says that higher carbon content in the air equates to a warmer climate. Islands that some of you may enjoy on vacation will be underwater as the oceans expand and rise. The fact that some scientists have changed their views doesn't alter this conclusion. I suggest that some of you that criticize Gore read some of the books that he obviously has read on this issue. Let me ask you: do you make the same criticisms of religion, where something is said to be true based on faith alone, absent any objective analysis. I doubt it.

I think a 30 would provide better return on investment, and greater tax advantage.

Have you been to http://www.thefunded.com

I don't know who here thinks that Gore found or invented global warming. Many of us were reading about it long before Gore came out on it, however I will tell you that Gore has consistently been pro enviroment. It would appear from the comments that Gore was being personally criticized, so I don't know what to tell you there. The top source is the release of carbon by burning fossil fuels. Coal, oil, gas are the remains of dead plant life that lived tens of millions of years ago. Those plants sequestered carbon over tens of millions of years, and man is in the process of releasing it into the atmosphere in a few hundred years. You see the equation: removal over tens of millions of years, release in three hundred years. The planet will become warmer, swamp like, as may have been the case when the dinosaurs walked the planet. And yes, volcano action and other natural processes release and remove carbon from the air. It is a natural, cyclical process, however, the point is that we don't want the actions of man radically upsetting the natural order.

Agreed, everything must be kept in context. I just wish that instead of making blanket statements, more of an effort were being made to educate the public on the subject. You see, I believe the public has become numb and distrusting of media campaigns.

We rarely if ever see the numbers, even if they are estimates. Instead, the science either assumes we cannot comprehend, or it cannot produce figures, only observations.

Science must produce numbers, and keep throwing them in our faces... Top three global warming gases and their sources, natural and human.

CP and 2nd,
My 5 yr. fixed adjustable is coming up for modification in Aubust 09. It is with Wells Fargo and it is a prime loan. It will become a one year contract based on the one year treasury plus 2.75%. In todays market that would be a principal and interest payment @ 3.15%. With the economy as it is and will be for the foreseeable future, it makes sense for me to let my mortgage convert rather than refinance to a 30 yr. fixed @ 5% plus or minus. Unless you see a reason why this line of thought is in error.

2nd
I have closing on Monday for 200K at 4.785 and mortgage broker is old friend since day of high school
Plan was to use for money in stock market but decided to buy some townhouse to rent.
They are available at good price. About Job, As soon as they find replaement and I train him/her
That will be my last day. May be end of this month. As far as health insurance is concern, it is law in MA that all must have health insurance. People can buy it from state offer plan and premium is base on your income. Without it I would not think about quitting the job

The Financial Post is having a series of interviews, one of them with Don Coxe.

http://www.financialpost.com/most_popular/story.ht...

One thing everyone is counting on is the collapse of the dollar. Certainly with quantitative easing we can see a much lower currency value. But its entirely possible that quantitative easing will be abandoned.

For instance, a collapse of sovereign debt may be in the cards somewhere in the G7. If one goes, they all go. Governments around the world are indebted to securitization schemes, much like sub-prime, alt-A and adjustable mortgages. The entire effort of the bailouts within the U.S. are an attempt to prop up the securitizations market from default, even as the assets (which are debts) deteriorate. Commercial banks have control over government bond markets and are just as likely to sell securitizations held against government debt since the credit default swaps are set to accrue when these governments debts collapse. Small wonder that the bailouts come so easy, when the spread of securitizations merely guarantee that a failure of governments(as bag-holders of credit derivatives) to pay their obligations to credit default swaps. In the meantime, the rest of the securitizations market can be propped up as long as possible using bailout money. The credit default swaps holding the risk in and having an ever-increasing interest payments must be paid, or collapse entirely.

Its clear from reading many sources that the assumption is that the dollar will collapse. But several things should occur in the meanwhile. A sovereign bond collapse would imply a runup in dollar value due to huge demand in dollars, but if quantitative easing is not abandoned, then the $US will devalue by multiples. Something has to give here. A scenario of deflationary pressure at the same time of quantitative easing is quite possible, but at the expense of the government bonds. If the securitizations market breaks on the failure of government bonds, then dollar demand should be huge and quantitative easing abandoned.

At the very least a correction is overdue in the long bond market, it should come in Q1, if not in the next couple of weeks. What you get from the USB chart going back as long as 1982, that a decline in the long bond can go very far, much like the oil price had. For instance, at the very least a correction to fill a small gap up recently to ~129, but can go as far as ~117.

Stockcharts.com HTD.TO

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HTD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=...

vinod - I usually try to pay 1->1/1/2 points to get lower rate, points are optional...

Anyone notice the SRS yesterday? All's not peachy, restless natives remain lurking.

Seadog,

I spent a couple of minutes digging around with some links I had saved and compiled the following links for you. Enjoy.

US Senate report: http://tinyurl.com/2hmrer

"The American Physical Society representing nearly 50,000 physicists "has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming,": http://tinyurl.com/6orj42

And some additional links, just for fun.

Ireland's environmental minister (recent comments): http://tinyurl.com/7kkyrl

List of accredited experts on record as skeptical of current models... with brief CV of research and publications for each... and also with with links to various articles written by these same: http://tinyurl.com/7xcw3q

huge list of links from the New Zealand Climate Consensus Coalition to related articles by researchers skeptical on this subject(just keep scrolling down for links).http://tinyurl.com/7zsh9y

Chief global warming scientist caught using bad data in support of his models: http://tinyurl.com/9eycby

Comments by CNN meteorolgist.. (forewarning, comments made on Lou Dobbs show): http://tinyurl.com/9gf56t

This is by no means an exhaustive list of pertinent links.

Hi Gray,
Last fourteen years has been in Wilmington, NC.
I agree that admitting you were wrong about an investment is a key component of a successful strategy, whether there were facts you were not aware of or something has changed after your purchase. Keep in mind though, value and price are usually not the same thing.
Best wishes for 2009.

Its easy to say that math is the highest science, and then make the leap to "math determines everything" or "math is the highest determination" since we live in a deterministic universe.

But isn't this what the Quants are doing with their 'perfect' mathematical formulae, predetermining the outcome which is always predicated on the failure of the credit derivative obligation and the benefit of the swaps holder?

Isn't that a form of Marxism, to entrap as many people as possible into a 'perfect' vision of economy, whether by mathematical formula or the force of their own poverty?

I think using a word like "highest" denotes a ranking based on a given group's priorities and tends to imply placing it above everything else based on a bunch of imperfect humans' opinions. Having said that, didn't Goedel's theorem basically state that you can't truly understand the system (ie: limits to knowledge) from within the system? Perhaps it is the purest form of exploration, but putting pride aside, doesn't that just make math the one-eyed man in the kingdom of the blind?

hard to understand why SRS was up at all, on such an up day - IYR is the inverse of SRS. IYR contains NLY, AVB, BXP, EQR, HCP, HST, PCL, PSA, SPG, VNO. Most/ all of these were flatish to down yesterday.

why did almost all sectors lift ex real estate and ex long bonds (& maybe others)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IYR&t=5d

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SRS&t=5d&l=on&z=m&...

long term, SRS still looks like it could continue to sell off,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SRS&t=3m&l=on&z=m&...

meaning real estate could continue to recover
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IYR&t=6m&l=on&z=m&...

ALOHA !!

I agree with FranSix on sustained support for toxic derivatives positions and that was essentially my point on futures markets since the shorts have the US FED and its printing press supporting their gold derivatives(aka: JP Morgan). It is a proven fact backed with US Federal court documents that both JP Morgan and Barrick Gold are protected agents for the US FED. JP Morgan is a direct agent of the US FED and Barrick Gold falls under the same umbrella as an agent for JP Morgan. Go look it up Blanchard Coin vs JP Morgan/Barrick Gold.

Here is the precedent set by BLANCHARD COIN:
The precedent for alleged manipulation of the gold derivatives and physical markets was set in Civil Action No. 02-3721 filed in the Eastern District of Louisiana by Blanchard & Co., against JP Morgan and Barrick Gold Corporation. The suit essentially alleged that JPMorgan Chase provided Barrick with so much borrowed gold -- presumably obtained from central banks -- on such favorable terms that Barrick could overwhelm the market and move prices up or down at will and not have to repay the borrowed gold for many years if at all. Eventually JP Morgan was dropped from the case and Blanchard & Co., which claimed extensive damages from the manipulation as one of the largest bullion dealers in the United States, settled the case with Barrick. The terms of the settlement were sealed, however, the fact that the matter was settled is presumably indicative of some impropriety as it relates to the allegations made and should warrant heightened regulatory scrutiny with regard to companies with extensive activities in exchange traded gold futures contracts in light of OTC derivative exposure as illustrated below ... (more)

Here is link to the entire article: http://tinyurl.com/a5cgw5

Now I have to ask how does a supposed "gold mining" company like Barrick get hooked up with the King Of Fraud, JP Morgan? What's in it for Barrick? I never hear of Agnico Eagle or GoldCorp running gold market scams with JP Morgan? Hummmmm???? This goes to why I would never hold shares in Barrick under any circumstances.

I mean come on Barrick had a 23mill gold ounce short position!! Please ...

Now I have yet to find the entire article where there is even a flow chart where JP Morgan and Barrick set up offshore shell companies to hide their short contract identities, but here is a bit I could find:

"Jay Taylor, who publishes J. Taylor's Gold and Technology Stocks, interviewed Blanchard & Co. CEO Donald W. Doyle for his 15 Dec 2003 issue. According to Doyle, JP Morgan Chase acquired a significant ownership position in Barrick through a third company called TrizecHahn. Barrick arranged an incredible deal where it can massively short gold without any margin requirements for a fifteen year term. On top of this, it can roll over its contracts indefinitely."

Rolling over contracts indefinitely is termed "evergreen" ...

Okay, if you look up TrizecHahn you would find it is a commercial real estate company and which Barrick CEO made his fortune off real estate before starting up Barrick? Hummmm ... like the TV show detective ... something ... MONK ... something or other ... ah ... PETER MONK!!! MR. REAL ESTATE! What a coincidence !!!! Look at the present and past Barrick Directors and its a Who's Who of US and Canadian high level politicians. What other "mining" company has such a "dicey" crew of politicians and derivatives bank links? In my mind Barrick is not "mining" gold they are "leveraging" it on the backs of local peasants all the way up to pension funds! They're mining futures!

All of the above plus what FranSix describes is an incredible invasion into FREE MARKETS by the US FED. If you still cling to the belief that the US FED just raises interest rates up and down then get a KLUE!! The first Executive Order signing into existence the manipulation of markets by the US FED began with Ronald Reagan and then quickly escalated under Bush 1 and Clinton and now the US FED and its member banks, mainly JP MORGAN are out of control and FREE MARKETS in the USA are laughable at best!

Had the US CONgress not have offered up US TAXPAYER money to bailout derivatives then this whole tangled web of lies known as the US BANKING SYSTEM would have collapsed along with the US FED a long time ago. They will collapse anyway, but now when they collapse they will not only take your money but the financial future of your kids with them.

Do not be fooled. US TAXPAYERS are bailing out DERIVATIVES not banks and not US car manufacturers(GM) and not insurance companies(AIG). They are all interconnected by the unregulated derivatives markets ... This is a market that Greenspan swore up and down on numerous occasions did not need to be regulated. Which politician on Capital Hill was the only one asking about that years ago? RON PAUL ... Greenspan needs to do serious jail time just on that one single act of fraud alone. The entire US CONgress is not far behind him on fraud counts!

UNREAL ...

When will WE THE PEOPLE call a halt to the "long train of abuses" the US Declaration Of Independence authorizes us to do?

Voting for OBAMA was so far off the mark ... NO CHANGE!

ALOHA !!

When the commercial real estate comes crashing down do not be surprised that TRIZECHAHN gets a BAILOUT ... one way or another! If JP MORGAN is attached then so is the US FED and that guarantees BAILOUT!

What do I see now other than the US governors of America asking for $1tril in BAILOUT???? Who's next?

COME ON??? Where will all this end? YOU KNOW WHERE ...

Vinod, 2nd, Greg,
ARMs work fine if are watching your particular Index with time to move. If you intend to stay in your home more than 8 years it matters how you view your 'investment' vs. home.

Given such low fixed rates ARMs are not very attractive. May I suggest a 30 year fixed with interest only option (for 10 years) for some early payment relief? You can always pay down faster to maximize your after tax dollars in. There is a school of thought that cheap mortgage cash can help a savvy investor build a portfolio...but you have to like the odds. We were locking 4.75% for about an hour several days last week so it pays to have your application on your broker's desk to grab your desired terms (some states have risk based price hits). Underwriters are swamped so a little patience may be on order. We expect a historic trend of rising enthsiasm (and interest rates) with the regime change after January 20 Inaugeration. Timing is everything!

Greg,
IMO forecasting interest rates is like forecasting foreign exchange, extremely difficult. I guess they are a bit like gold which is relatively easy to forecast in the long term than in the short term, ie Bill Bonners comments from the Daily Reckoning 2nd Jan 09 "over the long run, gold does nothing and goes nowhere. That makes it a bad investment usually and a good investment occasionally".

If your mortgage intentions are long term then interest rates are likely to affect you as they revert to and cross the mean which means higher than current. So the question becomes one of how to manage the risk. My suggestion would be to split the mortgage between fixed and floating (if possible) that way you are winning either way the rates swing.

Paying off a mortgage is the sweatest feeling and I can't recommend it highly enough. Unfortunately too many people do not get that feeling, instead of paying off they trade up to a bigger house and ultimately bigger mortgage. The richest man I know (a USD billionaire) has lived in the same average sized family home for near 30 years... says it all.

If The Fed can ultimately control the price of the long bond and divert any amount of capital to support it, then likely quantitative easing is the correct policy to keep the securitizations market going between commercial entities, which are becoming fewer in number, and controlled by fewer and fewer principals. But I would be watching the long bond price going forward at this point. Any large correction in the bond price implies a stronger currency, and possible a collapse of the securitizations associated with the exclusive patronage of government bonds by commercial banks.

But a long term quantitative easing regime, if successful, implies that prices are subject to "freezing" or notably making little improvement while within commercial banks expansion of securitizations goes on at a hyper-inflationary pace. A long term regime of quantitative easing means a massive currency risk depending on the sum total notional amounts accrued in the securitizations trade.

As far as gold derivatives are concerned, I believe that they must be tied to bullion lease interest rates, just like those of government bonds, but that the swaps portion force the sale of bullion or bullion leases into the market, rather than the purchase of bullion leases as you would sovereign bonds. Bullion lease rates have "maxed out" for months and then become very volatile in December, swinging from positive to negative and back again. There would be a battle for control of the credit derivative swaps held against declining bullion lease rates. The fly in the ointment is that bullion leases require holding a certain amount of physical gold, which is disappearing from the markets, while government bonds can be printed up endlessly.

Government bonds purchased using assets from derivatives tied to bullion leases are a source of liquidity in the securitizations market. In fact, there is a direct tie to limiting or betting on commodities and the growth of derivatives. But don't let them convince you that tying derivatives into the oil trade or the energy markets is the new panacea, because both Uranium and Oil have suffered massive declines and a major crash of derivatives associated with them, and is a source of the derivatives crash requiring taxpayer bailout without knowing what they're bailing out. But not gold.

There is a renewed effort in the business media to focus on exclusively on oil and reflation, which simply aren't in the cards. Niall Ferguson figures prominently in attempting to promote the British cultural point of view that gold has only notional value and is simply a shiny metal, while notional values of obligations are what make the world go round. The is the Marxist centre of the derivatives trade, the mathematical logic that can't face the reality that gold is money and has always been money, is a real thing, and that obligations are figments of our imagination. Gold is merely an object of primitive baroque lust.

An interesting video on money narrated by Niall Fergusson(which was posted to Jesse's Cafe Americain):

Google Video

Here is a spreadsheet I made of current RSIs as a category for various sized gold producers. I also showed cumulative readings. I am going to try and track this reading weekly to track the breadth of the junior producer market. Latest cumulative readings as of Friday close was 65.40/52.83/34.75.

Enjoy

CP- I'm thinking the REIT rally is of the bear market variety, which means it could be a spectacular rally...

like you, i went long around DJIA 10800...i'm closing in on the minus 15% area (overall), which actually (and unfortunately) sounds pretty good...my gold sector fund is above water now, and a couple of other positions (China region fund, IBN) are close to turning green...so if and as the rally continues, will be looking at a few sales...

not bad...actually, i'm not yet entirely certain our application was underwritten at 5%, it may turn out to be an even lower rate...at this point all i have is an email from the broker's office saying it was underwritten late Friday, and we approved locking in any rate 5% or less...

Late Friday we saw a little jump to 5.25% so I hung up the mouse for the weekend... Hoping for a better week for my clients also. Still it's hard to complain at anything under 6%.

I saw this cartoon over at the Barry Ritholtz's "Big Picture" and it describes me and my morning coffee so well, perhaps yours?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/20...

Thanks BillySundance- interesting - some are already up a lot in december.

here are a few charts that could have been traded in N.Y or Toronto...... http://tinyurl.com/7ockhx

Vadym - Your comment "rang a bell" so I dug out my copy of "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands". Sure enough, he also says what we are saying (albeit, he said it first). His words:

" It turns out that as you vary the length of the moving average you also need to vary the number of standard deviations used to plot the bands. ...."
pg 24

Personally, I think that what he is saying is that it is best to "curve fit" the parameters over historical data and use what works - until it doesn't. Fortunately, with today's reliances on computer generated signals, I believe the parameters that work don't get changed very frequently.

Enjoy your comments!

ALOHA !!

Like some English Duke from a long royal lineage US TAXPAYERS now have to contend with Hank Paulson's son, Merritt, as he follows in his Father's footsteps of fleecing taxpayers. Here is Hank Paulson's son and his latest endeavors in Portland, Oregon ...

A chip off the old block!!!

His name? H MERRITT PAULSON III

READ ON:

Paulson’s Pitch

Why does Hank Paulson’s son want $85 million of your money?

Until Merritt Paulson came along, City Commissioner Randy Leonard had never been to Manhattan. Tom Miller, chief of staff to Commissioner Sam Adams, had never been to Kansas City. And the city’s most visible business, the Portland Trail Blazers, had never been receptive to the idea of another major-league sports franchise coming to town.

It’s remarkable what one guy with a rich father and an interesting idea can accomplish.

Just 18 months ago, Paulson, 35, was a midlevel National Basketball Association executive living in New York.

Since then, he’s moved to the Portland area, bought two minor-league sports teams—baseball’s Beavers and soccer’s Timbers—and now has propelled himself into the spotlight with an audacious proposition.

Paulson wants taxpayers to spend $85 million to build a new baseball stadium for his Beavers and renovate PGE Park—just remodeled in 2001 at a cost to taxpayers of $38.5 million—for soccer. In return, he’ll spend $40 million to bring a new Major League Soccer team to this city.

“I’m willing to make a bet on the Portland market—that’s an easy bet to make,” Paulson says.

It’s also, judging from past experience, something of a longshot. Portland has historically disdained financing sports stadiums (billionaire Trail Blazers owner Paul Allen built the Rose Garden with virtually no public money).

“Portland’s an ‘if you build it they will come’ city,” says Brian Berger, a former Blazers employee who hosts the nationally syndicated show Sports Business Radio. “People here don’t want to pay for stadiums.”

Then there’s the dismal economy, which will increase the demand for public services and decrease the resources to pay for them.

And finally, voluminous research undermines the premise that pro sports drive new economic development by creating jobs, revitalizing neighborhoods and generating tourism.

“The projections underlying these deals rarely pan out,” says Chuck Sheketoff, director of the Oregon Center for Public Policy.

“Why are we discussing stadiums before we decide on priorities for the city?” asks Debbie Aiona of the League of Women Voters. “If we did rank priorities, I’m not sure this idea would be at the top.”

Despite such concerns, Paulson and his allies are plowing full speed ahead with chutzpah that’s more New York than Portland.

Two weeks ago, Paulson told The New York Times his proposal was set in stone. (more)

Link: http://wweek.com/editorial/3503/11892/

When will there be a Federal Holiday for Barack Hussein Obama Jr?
Martin Luther King Jr's Federal holiday is always the third Monday in January, so people left working can still be INCOME tax payers for four days that week.
Washington's Federal holiday is the third Monday in February so the few people left working can still pay INCOME taxes four days that week.
Labor Day is always declared on the first Monday in September so the few people left working can pay their INCOME taxes for four days that week.
Columbus gets the second Monday in October so the few people left working can pay four days of INCOME tax for government employees that week.
Memorial day gets observed on the last Monday in May so the few people left working can pay INCOME taxes four days that week to the hard working government leaches.
Barack Husein Obamas Jr's birthday is Tuesday August 4, 2009. So will Obama's newly employed people (CCC's) that he is going to put to work building roads and damns and bridges to no where, be excused from building roads and damns and bridges to no where, on the first Tuesday in August, or the first Monday in August?
Federal, and State employees need to know when they get their next tax payer funded day off. The newly employed CCC's will be busy competing with the Bush guest workers over a minimum wage pay check, so the new Barack Husein Obama Jr Federal holiday will just be another Monday, or Tuesday, or what ever day the government employees decide.
A new guest worker arrives every 36 seconds in the good ol' Americana's, and Paulson nets about $465 million and slithers by paying about $20 million in taxes..........what's in your wallet?
Where's the Barack Hussein Obama Jr.s library going the be? Hawaii? Indonesia? Kenya? Chicago?
CCC camps for the working poor, doesn't equal democracy in my mind.

Friday's rally was mentioned 3,5,and 8 minutes into the national news broadcast. It's not a perfect indicator...but what is. But by the time the national news shows cover the markets esp in the first few minutes of their broadcast, Bernard B's saw "What everyone knows isn't worth knowing" usually comes into play.

Also if the small caps, Russell 2000 or IBD 100, were participating in this "rally", in my experience, it would be indicative that animal spirits/speculators are back and the rally would be sustainable. Even IBD is bitching about the current leadership in the rally. Naz/spx/DJIA are showing accumulation but IBD is not. JMO whoever is buying the rally is putting it in large caps to show how "prudent" they are.

When I scan DJIA/QQQQ/SP500 (QQQQ are the top ten components, SP500 are the stocks representing 50% of total SP500 market cap), there are no buy/accumulation mode stocks for DJIA/QQQQ and AIG (?)/Dell for SP500

When I can scan the Cara 100, HBC/WFMI/ERTS/ATVI/DELL are in buy modes and DOW is in accumulation.

If there was a buying opportunity, it was perhaps Nov 20 and it's passed by. I can't recall whether I ran a scan then, normally I do but when there have been tradeable opportunities, there are a great deal of stocks in the buy/accumulation mode.

Finally I wonder how much of the rally is due to sellers taking losses prior to year end and some action by the big boys to make their portfolios look better.

We'll know in the fullness of time.

Good afternoon,

i've been thinking today a lot about put selling for conservative gains.
for example,
COP - 52 wk trading range = 41.27-95.96, current price = $54.85
Jan /10 $45.00 puts = $6.40 = $640 premium per contract
assuming 1 contract, excluding commissions
scenarios
1)stock gets put to you at $45.00, I pay $4500 - $640 = $3860 /100 = $38.60 per share (not bad to own COP at $38.60 IMO)
2)stock never sees $45.00, I keep $640.00 premium, for a hypothetical return of ($640/$5485) = 11.69% which isn't all that shabby either.

I guess the problem is, seeing that the margin is required in the trading account, the yearly return on that money is maximum 11.69% (less commissions), and I could not put that money to work elsewhere during the life of the put. Otherwise, I think that this is a pretty safe conservative investment. Anyone have a take on this? are my calculations wrong?
Would love some feedback

I've never really found that I'm capable of relaxing on the weekends. How can you enjoy yourself when you're not trading? Ah well...

Listen people, I am hoping to explain criteria to several of you and the to utilize Bill's chat room in order to alert each other when those criteria have been met. You need to be around every morning, and be willing to learn and to apply a methodology. I think the chat room is the ideal technological development to facilitate this concept. Ten people working together can beat the world, if they're all on the same page. This could change your life.

Shark, I think that is a great idea. We should have some discussion regarding standardizing the criteria to follow. I am assuming most of this will be TA based (RSI, ATR, MACD). Look forward to hearing your thoughts on this.

Considering the run last week, any excuse might be used to sell off.

Delay hits hopes for Obama rescue plan.

Barack Obama on Sunday was dealt his first serious setback since the election when his choice for commerce secretary withdrew from nomination, as congressional leaders warned that an emergency $775bn fiscal stimulus package was unlikely to be passed before Mr Obama’s inauguration

Shark,

do you have real time scanner to alert you about open range break or any other strategy you intend to deploy?

I mean, if you only count on many eyes monitoring certain set of stocks, you will be a)limited to predetermined list, missing opportunities outside of it and b)greatly dependent on subjective factors, up to "who dropped out for today eliminating certain % of our watchlist"

I was thinking what we would do is to have actual people do the monitoring because only an actual person can discern between an abberant trade or a short rally that happens to trigger a watch, versus a bona fide a-up or a-down. Also, it would be a cool experiment to see about the potential of partnering up. If the results are good, it could be the start of something good. Granted, most people here are long-only oriented, and granted, not every day brings good solid long opptys.

I started reading about China's plans to build small modular nuclear plants a few years ago. They would not totally replace the larger ones immediately but I could see things going that way in the future.

Basically they are high temperature reactors based on the pebble bed systems. A single design would be factory mass produced and shipped to the site in sections on flatbeds or rail cars. If more power is needed then several reactors would be set up in a clustered configuration.

I like the one standard design, factory built with only sub assembly on site. Design, Costs and construction and time are reduced considerably. Very different than the North American style of bigger, better, never been designed or built before, costs escalations and continuous redesigns during the decades it takes to design and build these one of a kinds, some of them never actually reach commissioning before they are mothballed.

Here's a couple of articles on the basics, first covers the China HTR-10 prototype system and the second is a general intro into the several different types of small reactors being investigated worldwide.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/06/worlds-first-comm...

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf33.html

I'm showing a technical buy signal on SLW. This could change by tomorrow, but both Silver and Gold are up this evening....

Tbar, yes I too enjoy working on scans and use the Stockcharts advanced scan engine for most of my scans. I think it does help to narrow the thinking process, I have lists set up for the Cara 100 and some of my other watch lists, I then just run the scans on those lists as it helps to eliminate all the other stocks I'm really not interested in.

As far as scanning for a BB squeeze, I assume you are looking for narrowing BB's. Most would use the BB width indicator, but its a little tricky as its not a percentage indicator. Thus you would have to do a relative scan for todays width to be less than the min width in the last several weeks.

I tend to do things differently and would use the Upper and Lower BB relative to the center line, say the 20SMA and set the criteria to be within a certain percentage, say 5%, that way the scan is still independent of the stock price. example as follows;

and [Upper BB (20,2,close) < sma(20, close)* 1.05]
and [Lower BB (20,2,close) > sma(20, close)* 0.95]

Another block of scan criteria I use often is looking for MA convergence, very similar to a BB width squeeze, as follows, just change the MA's and percentages to match your time frames, this one is for the 20,50 100 & 200 SMA's all within +/- 2% of each other, coiled and ready to spring you just have to watch for the direction. You can also do this long term on the weeklys or for very short term say the last several weeks just use say the 2,5,10 & 20 SMA

and [daily sma(20,daily close) >= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.98]
and [daily sma(20,daily close) <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 1.02]
and [daily sma(100,daily close) >= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.98]
and [daily sma(100,daily close) <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 1.02]
and [daily sma(200,daily close) >= daily sma(50,daily close) * 0.98]
and [daily sma(200,daily close) <= daily sma(50,daily close) * 1.02]

If you need more ideas or help check out the Stockcharts members support forum, there are a bunch of us over there willing to share ideas on TA / Charts and Scanning.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?bo...

G/L with your scans and trading / investing
Quasi

KWT Market Vector Solar

On Friday KWT broke through it's 50 day moving average after tracking above it's trend line for the last 10 days. September shares traded in a range of $42.00 Fridays close was $15.22 up 7.49%. I believe this is in line with the new Administration's big stimulus package in non oil energy.

I have a small position.

http://tinyurl.com/757zwb

Perhaps our illustrious Treasury Secretary has given HB&B the signal to dump treasuries as a ploy to force our magnificent congress into releasing the 2nd half of the TARP? The Bush administration has said it's not likely to submit a formal request prior to Obama's inauguration...

So who are selling their Treasuries (HB&B?) and why? Can we anticipate the 2nd half of the TARP won't create a 2nd Treasury wave?

TAN - Claymore Global Solar Energy ETF is very similar, had a similar breakout, and has somewhat better volume, thus might be better for trading. Just thought I'd mention it, no position

i have tried this many times & have been lucky enough to wait & collect most of the premium sold. but on a few occasions the stock gapped down and i re - purchased the sold put. that hurts a lot. wipes out a lot of the successful other ones.... still i am not risk averse enough to sell a spread instead. hopefully one day i will learn.

Well, I would be interested. What time in the a.m. do you normally chat? Thanks

L

Hi tradingnik, it appears the question is in the chatroom as well, thanks.

Here's a mining story of interest to armchair gold miners of the 16 to 1 gold mine, a video with its long time CEO, and some history of the mine, its geology and prospects. I had been reading the book: "A Hole In The Ground With A Liar Up At The Top" and this mine story will bring mining history from way in the past to the present time. This mine has had a life of over 100 years.

The Geology Of The 16 to 1 Mine:

http://www.origsix.com/tmarticle.asp?id=123

Video

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-351122229...

Now trading @ 7¢ on the pink sheets, OSTO.PK

"Incorporated under the laws of the State of California, October 6, 1911. Capital Authorized: 30,000,000 non-assessable shares of common stock. Shares outstanding as of March 30, 2008: 12,905,505."

~$1m. gets the entire float for you.

ref:

http://www.origsix.com/potential.asp

How to buy stock in the company:

http://www.origsix.com/stockinfo.asp

Also appended to Monday's chat, Jan 05