[8:20am ET] Hear no Bull; speak no Bull; see no Bull. Isn’t that the problem we face today? For months, I have been wracked with this incessant negative media that purports to understand trading, but seems, to me at least, purposeful in its intention to push market prices lower.
It’s not that I am an eternal optimist, as you know. For the past couple years, I was widely criticized by many for crying wolf. Now you see why I was so concerned; but, now you also don’t seem too interested when I say the glass is half full today.
One of the reasons I nurtured this thinking community was to develop rational thought as to the reasons for market price anomalies, so that we would be fooled less often, meaning that we would be more successful in our trading decisions.
Yesterday one of you sent me the following e-mail that defines our problem, and I wish to share it:
Bill, What an awesome definition:
Agnotology: Culturally constructed ignorance, purposefully created by special interest groups working hard to create confusion and suppress the truth.
Here is a fascinating discussion via Wired’s Clive Thompson, and Stanford historian of science Robert Proctor, on Agnotology:
“When it comes to many contentious subjects, our usual relationship to information is reversed: Ignorance increases.
[Proctor] has developed a word inspired by this trend: agnotology. Derived from the Greek root agnosis, it is “the study of culturally constructed ignorance.”
As Proctor argues, when society doesn’t know something, it’s often because special interests work hard to create confusion. Anti-Obama groups likely spent millions insisting he’s a Muslim; church groups have shelled out even more pushing creationism. The oil and auto industries carefully seed doubt about the causes of global warming. And when the dust settles, society knows less than it did before.
“People always assume that if someone doesn’t know something, it’s because they haven’t paid attention or haven’t yet figured it out,” Proctor says. “But ignorance also comes from people literally suppressing truth—or drowning it out—or trying to make it so confusing that people stop caring about what’s true and what’s not.” (emphasis added)
Fairly amazing, and when it comes to certain issues, its dead on.
Yes, Monroe, thank you. Agnotology is a body of knowledge we need to thoroughly understand. Without knowing the word, I have written extensively on the general subject.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agnotology
Applied to markets, I have often written that it is the gnomes (as defined by Adam Smith) who continuously lead the public to sell at the bottom and buy at the top, which the gnomes do by their financial support of talking heads and clowns in the media who know little to nothing of trading, or who have decided to take the money and run.
I would write extensively today on this important subject, if I had the time. Alas, I have other work to do. Then later, arriving with his family from Hawaii, kaimu will drop by to say Aloha!
I expect we’ll later see the movie -- Kaimu Comes to Cable Beach: A Study of the Bahamian Dollar and the Honesty of Government in Nassau.
Enjoy your day; but give some thought and discussion to Agnotology, the word of the day.
Comments
Re: agnotology
number2son is demonstrating the problem with this concept by accusing me of a wilful denial of his established orthodoxy. The concept of agnotology is a means of stifling debate.
Nonsense. I'm accepting the unequivocal conclusion of 2,500 scientists.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ipcc2007.html
In any area of science you can find disagreement. But citing a handful of obscure scientists with a contrary view to the overwhelming scientific evidence for global warming is not a debate, nor does it support the ludicrous assertion that scientific consensus is designed in any way to stifle debate. Rather it is the amplification of those few voices of opposition that truly characterizes the aspect of agnotology with regard to this issue.
In President Obama's inaugural speech he said "We will restore science to its rightful place." It is long overdue and finally, and at long last, this issue will get the attention it rightly and urgently deserves.
Re: Banks/"false dawns"
"Can you explain "a trade around it mentality"?"
Mark- As we all know, the shortest (and most easily visualized) distance between two points is a straight line. The TOG can be visualized as a straight line, and one could buy (and hold) RRPIX/TBT/DXKSX with that in mind. But I can see many investors have gotten killed on the timing of the trade. 'Trading around it,' on the other hand, simply means buying on weakness and selling on strength, while holding a core position. This allows you to lock in ST incremental gains, which in some cases can greatly exceed the percentage gain from the core position. Or, one could simply trade' the entire position, taking it all off the table on strength, and buying back in on weakness-> in this case, your only concerns are ST direction and volatility. As we all know as well, nothing in the market moves in a straight line.
Re: US Banks/2nd
2nd-I couldn't agree more. And THAT is exactly what I'm afraid of. In my industry I deal with local and state bureaucracies and regulators on a daily basis. Not surprisingly these agencies had grown larger, more restrictive, and costly.
I have turned around on health care. However, we need to figure out a way to do it that doesn't create an environment like you describe.
Re: Banks/"false dawns"
2nd-Got it, thanks for both of your reasoned responses.
Re: US Banks/2nd
"In my industry I deal with local and state bureaucracies and regulators on a daily basis."
Earlier this week, there was either a quote or a misquote attributed to Karl Marx about the nationalization of banks (somehow) leading to Communism. I don't know enough about Marxist theory or Communism to have an opinion on the logic behind that. But I have had the experiences of (a) trying to get answers to my tax questions from the IRS branch in San Francisco, and (b) trying to get someplace on time by cab in Beijing in 1984. The common thread was a lack of interest in trying to help me out. Neither person got paid to be efficient, or to give a ----; in the case of the cabdriver, not only was a 'tip' illegal, it was disdained. In a global economy that runs on the efficient delivery of goods and services, we just aren't going to be able to compete bound by layers of red tape. Even those $8-9m (now downgraded to $6.5m) homes you are building depend on the decisions/schedules of overworked and underpaid inspectors who surely do not give a ---- if/when those homes get built. I wonder if some visitor from China in twenty years will look on incredulously as a cabdriver in NYC turns down a 1000 yuan tip to get him to JFK before his plane takes off; after all, it's rush hour, and he doesn't really want to deal with the traffic.
Re: US Banks/2nd/construction
In fact what we are seeing now is inspectors clearly looking for the most minor items that before were routinely passed on to future inspections. This creates more inspections and keeps them busy AND employed. They are also looking for "scope of work" conflicts in an attempt to generate more fees for the governing entity.
CSPAN2
FYI: GE is more than one half a finance company.
Banks/"false dawns"
Maybe you are uncomfortable with sameness, but I guaranty a lot of us older folks would love to see a lot more sameness. I didn't plan to spend my retirement guarding my savings — believe me, life used to be much more relaxed.
I'm in front of my computer almost as much as when I was working and a lot more tense.
I agree. If Hoisington is on the mark it will be a trader's game for some time.
My trade has been and will be mostly bonds — a bit more my speed.
Re: agnotology
In President Obama's inaugural speech he said "We will restore science to its rightful place."
As Eisenhower warned in his 1961 Military-Industrial Complex Speech, “a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity…… The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.”
“………… the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) nonsense is generated by government funding of science. If a guy agrees with AGW, then he can get a government contract. If he is a skeptic, then no contract. There is a professor at Tulane, with a Ph.D in paleoclimatology, who is as skeptical as I am about AGW, but he'd never be considered for tenure at Tulane because of his professional opinion. No government contracts, no tenure.” Frank Tipler, the distinguished mathematical physicist at Tulane University
Transaction Taxes
Is this right? A 0.25% transaction tax on trades is being advised...
So a 1000 share round trip trade on 50 dollar stock now costs 10 bucks for me...and that will rise to 260 bucks (commissions and transaction tax)? Call me out of business as a trader. Is my calculator broken?
Re: Transaction Taxes
Not quite yet, but this one could fly. "Sure, tax the traders. They probably caused this whole mess anyway."
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
Perhaps we should have a small tax on more of the democratic processes in this country, such as the voting process for example. A tax on Treasury bond transactions could also be implemented to dampen phenomena such as the current treasuries speculative bubble.
I firmly believe Obama will make the right choices for this country, and protect the rights of all citizens.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/opinion/13herber...
Re: US Banks/2nd
I went to Logan airport Boston to pickup relative coming from Amsterdam to Boston, NWA flight 0059
Luggage did not come in with flight. Went to their claim counter. There was a line and we are number six in line. One person to process the claim. It took her 90 minutes before we got to her.
At that time there were 7 people behind us. I used to here USSR is a country of line, hope we are not going that way to get the service.
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
I can't imagine a foolish transaction tax ever passing. Wall Street and the investment houses will all be against it. The stock market would plummet and Obama would back peddle fast IMHO. They don't teach financial markets or money management in primary/secondary schools. It can be easily missed in college. So what are these graduates to know!
Re: Transaction(s) Taxes and the DEA
I don't think so.
(1) It would certainly have the (unintended) effect of driving day traders to using (a) options, (b) ultra ETFs, and (c) low-priced stocks, in an effort to maximize returns while minimizing taxes. At a time when Congress seeks more stability in the financial markets, they would be encouraging the use of high-risk instruments.
(2) Traders will simply set up foreign trading accounts. This will pad the coffers of foreign exchanges at the expense of ours.
(3) If foreign accounts are banned, they will simply move out of the country. Personally, I would retire to a mountain home in Vad's neighborhood, but it could just as easily be Singapore or even the Bahamas.
(4) For those who refuse to/are unable to move out of the country, there is no need involving vast sums of money too esoteric for organized crime to fulfill. A shadow market that allows one to trade in the foreign exchanges (we are a global economy, no?) while sitting at a computer in the US will spring up in no time.
As usual, we can depend on our legislators to do what's best. They will probably create an entity that rivals the DEA in its effectiveness, and ensure that our hard-earned dollars go towards enriching our (more enlightened) foreign neighbors.
Re: US Banks/2nd
vinod- LOL...it's enough to make you want to move back to India...
Re: agnotology
Fox, you might want to cite someone who is at least 1) a scientist in the field, and 2) does not have such an extensive record as a right-wing activist. Tipler offers his views about global warming with the same degree of honesty and integrity as his support for the Swiftboaters. He is a classic case of an academic with a political agenda.
And given the unabashed politicizing of science during the Bush administration it is both ironic and laughable to quote Eisenhower in this context.
The House and Senate
I've always been skeptical of the political process, but (undoubtedly like many of you), the skepticism has turned to disgust as I watch the House and Senate struggle with the current crisis (actually, it's crisEs). I hear a lot of rhetoric. I see a lot of posturing. What we need is leadership. No one is certain what happened to the first $350b? What bull----. Someone needs to pull a few responsible parties into a room and find out-> how hard can that be? Then he/she needs to explain to the American public exactly what happened. The next $350b needs to be administered TRANSPARENTLY (maybe via daily public news releases, with names and numbers) and then kept on tight leashes as the checks are made out. Remember- this is OUR money...we have a right to know.
The good news (if I'm not mistaken in my judgment of character) is that Obama at least APPEARS to be going down that road.
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
One surprise I recently had on sharing a recent Christmas purchase with acquaintances and co-workers is the immediate apprehension of fraud in the markets. Their appreciation for financial markets extends no further than how they are merely breeding grounds for white collar crime. The book: "A Hole In The Ground With A Liar Up At The Top" is a great book for reading on how markets in mining shares were rife with fraud more than a century ago.
The first thing people mention is how fraud could have found its way into the markets because of this kind of rampant white collar crime in the mining markets of the Pacific exchanges. They don't realize that this was over 100 years ago, but I am always willing to concede that the kind of fraud we are seeing now is no different to the kind we saw back then, except that the fraud is within the commercial banks and the market of securitizations. Don't even attempt to explain the hair-splitting nuance of bond rating services rating securitizations as AAA when the vast majority of these 'bonds' are now worse than junk.
Mostly people draw a complete blank on why the credit derivatives market is a rampant breeder of white collar crime. Most people seem to have forgotten the excesses of Enron or just why this kind of thing occurs. Dean Baker may mean well, but its a state of complete naivete when any cogent source of sound economics blames 'gamblers' and 'speculators' when its the exclusive patronage that commercial banks have over sovereign debt that and the expansion of a clearly dysfunctional monopoly relationship with these banks that has now endangered the very existence of the entire financial system world wide.
A tax on trades? Holy crap, just wait till the shit hits the fan over government bond collapses and the failure of quantitative easing. What are they going to do then? Tax people who don't trade enough or spend 24 hours at their trading station because they are not productive enough and righting the wrongs of the past?
The Madoff show trails will be a sideshow when all governments literally go broke at the municipal, state(provincial) and federal level. Trow da bum in jail and have done with it. Get on with the real work of forcing a coprophagic breakfast on the bond holders who are controlling gubmint policy.
Re: Banks/"false dawns"
"Maybe you are uncomfortable with sameness, but I guarantee a lot of us older folks would love to see a lot more sameness. I didn't plan to spend my retirement guarding my savings — believe me, life used to be much more relaxed."
Grym- Actually, I enjoy routine and order in my life (I like hearing the sprinklers turn on as scheduled, and finding the nail clipper exactly where I left it). (Now that I think about it, my favorite scenes in the film 'Broken Fences' mentioned here a few weeks back were of the [widowed] rancher getting out of bed at the same time every day, eating dinner [usually by himself] every evening, and carefully washing/drying the dishes before hitting the one bar in town once a week for a beer.) I don't want to spend my retirement guarding my savings either; there is more to life than watching the markets. Having said that, it's just human nature to tire of the same old thing and all of us at least occasionally induce/introduce change(s) into our lives by choice. The market, of course, is filled with people looking for change. In a way, investors are like the kids who walk to school every day/do their homework every night, but they entrust their money to the kids on the corner- you know, the ones who, given no other outlet for their aggression will need to take it out on their buddies. The answer, I suppose, is to entrust your money to someone like the traders at CTAB, and go back to getting out of bed at the same time every day, and reading a good book every evening.
The jury duty was probably as much 'excitement' as any of us needs.
"The Path to Financial Reform"
NYT has an article eluding to the new proposed rules. You can get the full article free if you google "Obama Plans Fast Action to Tighten Financial Rules" and click on the 1st link which brings you to nyt.
Excerpts:
"A theme of that report, that many major companies and financial instruments now mostly unsupervised must be swept back under a larger regulatory umbrella, has been embraced as a guiding principle by the administration, officials said."
“Until we deal with the compensation model, we’re not going to deal with the conflict of interest, and people are not going to have confidence that the ratings are worth relying on, worth the paper they’re printed on,” Mary L. Schapiro, who testified earlier this month before being confirmed by the Senate to head the Securities and Exchange Commission."
“Excessive executive compensation that provides inappropriate incentives,” Mr. Geithner said, “has played a role in exacerbating the financial crisis.”
Re: agnotology
From Bill's post: "As Proctor argues, when society doesn’t know something, it’s often because special interests work hard to create confusion". It seems to me there are two poles of special interests here, viz. the carbon generators and the new 'give us the money' climate industry so we need to consider both as propagators of misinformation/confusion. As I have posted here before, to which no-one responded, "why have there been periods of global warming and high levels of CO2 on earth before mankind appeared on the planet and how is the current claimed GWB (global warming bubble) any different?"
I believe mankind should stop spewing muck into the air as it just makes sense but I feel we are being manipulated by the climate industry into making many expensive mistakes which will make developed countries economically disadvantaged. To my mind there is a lot of misinformation sprouted by both sides and it concerns me when I see people take a uni-polar position on these important issues because we can't have a truly informed, logical discussion. Wouldn't it be interesting if one government commissioned a GWB anti-thesis study by an international panel of eminent scientists.
Anyway I don't wish to get in to any argument on this issue. I just think it important to look at both sides with objectivity.
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
"What are they going to do then? Tax people who don't trade enough or spend 24 hours at their trading station because they are not productive enough and righting the wrongs of the past?"
Considering we were told the financial mess was caused by day trader and speculator bear raids (recall: speculators were responsible for running the price of energy through the roof), congress could selectively exempt certain larger brokerages (from the new tax) that were tragically crippled in the financial calamity, thereby granting a means to protect their clients assets. By levying this new tax only on day traders and speculator activity, advantages would be granted on a legal basis, releasing the SEC and congress from the burden of having to regulate and oversee opaque brokerage activities.
Secondarily, the tax advantages might help to reduce the necessity for governmental financial assistance, freeing up these firms from, and making possible their participation, in the heavy burden of economic reconstruction.
Re: agnotology / BAC
seadog - Global Warming - We need to act immediately and aggressively to mitigate the proven effects of global warming by man-made CO2 effluent. According to experts, the scientific debate is over and we may already be past the tipping point. Global warming is a well-proven phenomenon and the root-causes have already been positively identified.
BAC - According to my TA analysis, BAC remains in a strong downtrend:
* Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
* New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
* Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
* New 3 Week Low, Week Ending January 24th
* New 3 Month Low in January
Watching AVAV
Looking at AVAV as a long opportunity - http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/01/avav-a...
Re: agnotology
number2son
Always happy to amuse!
“right-wing activist…Swiftboaters……”
I suppose the debate could be a contest about marginalizing individuals with a differing viewpoint. Personally don’t agree with AGW, so feel free to publish some fitting labels that may apply.
You assume wrongly if you believe I supported the “politicizing of science” during the Bush administration. I'm against it, hence the quote!
I read some article this
I read some article this weekend that said BAC said it would be receiving $20bn in Tarp money, in addition to the $25bn that had been earmarked for it and Merrill last year. Merrill had suffered a $21.5bn operating loss in the fourth quarter. Despite the magnitude of the losses, Merrill had set aside $15bn for 2008 compensation, a sum that was only 6 per cent lower than the total in 2007, when the investment bank’s losses were smaller
I think we should pay our tax bill to someone at Merrill, intead of U.S. Treasury,
CNBC said we need pay and keep all that fine talent at big Wall Street house. I know I do not have skill to lose as much money as these people did
Speaking of expert, Barrons dated January 19.2009 has roundtable article. Where Abby Cohen’s one of the top picks is BAC at 14.33. Someday I am going to be a pro. Like her
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
Very good Chickenpookie...I love it.
See them for what they really are
Bill - your comment - ". . . we get to see them for what they really are... Just people. We have to stop seeing them as something bigger, and start focusing on breaking down the structures their predecessors built for them to be able to take advantage of us. We need to change those structures so that we can use the capital markets the way we need to protect our assets and build wealth."
is spot on. I would expand on this concept and apply it to the whole establishment. Too often today leadership is idolized.
From a trader's perspective, leaders should be treated like a stock. Due diligence should be done before investment. If it passes that test, risk/reward assessment. Performance should be measured. Non performers should be removed and let the performers run.
When it comes to political leadership, it seems many people generally buy into the sales pitch (greed), skip the analysis, don't have any type of performance measure and keep the losers too long.
Nationalizing banks vs healthcare
2nd - I find your rationale perplexing - You are resistant to nationalizing banks because of government inefficiencies, yet are willing to nationalize healthcare. Which is more important?
Dude - Picture yourself lying on the operating table or needing any kind of immediate care while waiting for some government official to complete a form, get authorization for your surgery, route it through proper channels, and so on.
Consider that 'affordable' health care does not necessarily equate to 'quality' health care.
Furthermore, while in the military branch of 'government', several times I observed unqualified or inept government employees get promoted out of the organization. This was because of the difficulty of firing government employees. Now, imagine the doctor who is about to perform a procedure on you or your family is one of these people.
Re: I read some article this
"Where Abby Cohen’s one of the top picks is BAC at 14.33. Someday I am going to be a pro. Like her."
vinod- I think both Barron's and AJC should realize that (a) we understand predictions about the market are impossible, and (b) we would be more inclined to tune in if they published honest, soul searching dialogue (rather than carefully constructed rationalizations). I haven't read Barron's in over ten years, b/c I didn't find it relevant to my portfolio returns. But I would pick it up again if they switched to a 'true confessions' type of reporting. (How many people have read 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street' versus 'Liar's Poker,' and which was more revealing and/or enjoyable?)
It would be infinitely more valuable to read something totally straight and unabridged. "You know, I started the year out on a bad note, having predicted DJIA 15000, which was obviously a bad call. A lot of our fund managers follow my lead, and I felt terrible when the market took that hit in January. We managed to recover quite a bit through the summer, but then averaging down on financials and energy, way too early you know, just killed us last fall. Now, I'm happy to say a strong weighting in bonds kept us from total disaster, but 2009 is going to be tough to game. I'm putting out BAC as my top pick, but I have to admit it's a not a SAFE pick. If you're looking for safety, banks are the last place to invest right now; my kids' trust funds are parked in cash. Having said that, BAC at 5 IMO may return up to 300%. It may drop further, maybe even down to the 1-2 range, before it takes off, but I'm comfortable starting to buy here. I will be adding on dips. I'm hedging the risk with a few puts, and I don't recommend putting more than 5% at stake. But look, if you want the bottom line, I think it hits 14.33 sometime this year."
Re: Nationalizing banks vs healthcare
"2nd - I find your rationale perplexing - You are resistant to nationalizing banks because of government inefficiencies, yet are willing to nationalize healthcare. Which is more important?"
Bert- I understand your point. I guess I'm saying that when it comes to basic human rights (and IMO, affordable health care is one of them), I would take 'quantity' (ie, total coverage) over 'quality.' So basically, I agree that health care is more important.
There are always trade-offs. Health care costs are out of control, and at some point we need to leave behind the 'treat at any and all costs' mentality; we'll have to ration. Insurance already makes the system inefficient. How much of each health care dollar supports the convoluted process you refer to: verification of coverage, pre-authorization, identification of pre-existing conditions, deductibles, dependent coverage. These are dollars that could be diverted to staffing, training, and equipment.
I think immediate care, when required, would always be provided regardless of whether it's nationalized or not. This is still a country where compassion counts, at least most of the time (the occasional story of patients being diverted from all hospitals in a certain area notwithstanding).
As to the possibility of an unqualified doctor performing surgery on someone in my family, well, even today that possibility exists. You don't find many incompetent MDs being turned in by their colleagues. In any case, if I were to find myself unemployed for a considerable period of time or without coverage for some other reason, I would be happier taking my chances with a nationalized system than with facing the prospect of no care at all.
Re: See them for what they really are
"From a trader's perspective, leaders should be treated like a stock. Due diligence should be done before investment. If it passes that test, risk/reward assessment. Performance should be measured. Non performers should be removed and let the performers run."
LOL- Right on! Somehow I don't think Washington or Adams tolerated incompetence for long. It was a matter of survival. And right now, it's another kind of test.
Re: gotta love my broker
Well, I 100% agree with you about going it solo. Looking forward to meeting alot of you @ the CTAB conference, it will be time and $$ well spent.
Re: BAC/who's selling, who's buying
Some fund disclosures as of January 19:
http://tinyurl.com/b9xvqb
Re: agnotology / BAC
Chickenpookie,
That's just it, the scientific debate is not over it's being conveniently overlooked. We are getting 'agnotologised'. I remain curious as to why this has all occured before mankind appeared on this planet and why the current situation is any different? If the scientific debate is over then it would need to have addressed this question.
Anyway time for me to retire on this one, best of luck in your trading.
Re: Swiss, I am a home builder in
>Swiss, I am a home builder in Ca. I have built homes for some of the most wealthy people here. They are very nervous right now.
Yet in this blog we see traders with a solid understanding of the market making very impressive returns during these periods of doom and calamity. The Yahoo headlines for the week are all doom and gloom, yet professional traders like Bill are calling a rally - the psychological reasons for which I can understand - and between the two sides (the small investor and professional) we see a transfer of wealth happening.
This, of course, is what the market is all about.
But, because the industry knows that this week was rally week (I assume Bill was not the only pro making the call) I am asking myself how much they conspired to bring such negative sentiment incessantly to the mainstream audience that the market is tilted in the professionals favour.
The news was bad and real, of course, but media as gatekeepers determine what is front and center for public consumption and what is not. Why weren't the headlines 'Obama's in: Let's build a better future'. ?
Much thought has been given to the subject of discipline in social sciences.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discipline_and_Punish
Noam Chomsky, although a critical theorist who goes over the top from time to time, has the gist of it:
http://www.chomsky.info/talks/19960413.htm
I'm increasingly interested in how 'the less than level playing field' Bill refers to is affected in reality.
President's Speech
Who manufactures energy transmission infrastructure?
ABB & GE come to mind. Who else?
Sunday Morning Coffee: Get Out of Jail Free. How It Goes Down.
http://tinyurl.com/bceq6j
Bair aspirin an ulcer for taxpayers?
RSI 14 week oversold list
MACD, Raschke style (more or less)
Government efficiency?
I've had some dealings with social Security, Medicare and Medicaid lately.
I am actually amazed at how efficient and automated the system is. I base this not only on the day to day dealings at both the state level (California for mom) but Social Security really surprised me.
I could visit by stopping by or make an appointment. I made an appointment.
I arrived a few mins early expecting to have a government agency Dept. of Motor Vehicles type experience. Ah but it was not to be.
I was greeted by a armed security guard (code orange?) who pointed me toward a small computer and said "enter your SS #", which I did. It spit out a little receipt of my existence with my appointment on it. About now it was the scheduled time of my appointment and on the dot my name was called from one of five or six windows across the office. I proceeded to window 4 to meet "Harold", my interviewer, who informed me my appointment would be recorded. All he had was a computer terminal, I saw no recorder. Whatever.
I have some pretty straightforward business so record away.
During my appointment the need for a few forms came up and Harold the SS employee had a series of metal shelving racks filled with various SS forms for all occassions from which to choose. He picked a suitable white form for designated payee for me, doctors form, and even provided me with a printed transcript of my appointment should the need to prosecute me for perjury arise later from our little meeting. It was beyond efficient.
If government healthcare is going to be like my experience was with Social Security, sign me up right now. It made the medical system look like a clown college.
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
Mark - Oh, and I forgot to mention: The brokerages shall be required to collect the new trading fees, and use this money to repay their gigantic government loans.
Re: President's Speech
Swiss-Take a look at PWR.
FD-Long PWR,ABB but trade in and out.
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
Chickenpookie-I traded 38,000 shares on Friday, most ever. I did a quick calculation and the taxes would have been USD 4,490.
"Worst lies of all? The ones you expect"
Interesting article by Mitch Albom in the Detroit Free Press today.
Ties into the powerless thinking.. "what are you going to do?"
Hopeless and accepting the very sad situations in our society. What is the line from the movie...mad as hell and not going to take it anymore.?
http://www.freep.com/article/20090125/COL01/901250...
Re: President's Speech
Check out EME, they popped up on my radar as they were on the IBD100 at one point in 2008.
Summary
EMCOR Group, Inc. operates as an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services firm in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and worldwide. It specializes in providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in facilities of all types and in providing services for the operation, maintenance and management of all aspects of such facilities. It designs, integrates, installs, operates and maintains various electrical and mechanical systems; premises electrical and lighting systems; low-voltage systems, such as fire alarm, security and process control systems; voice and data communications systems; roadway and transit lighting, and fiber optic lines; heating, ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration and clean-room process ventilation systems; plumbing, process and high-purity piping systems; water and wastewater treatment systems, and central plant heating and cooling systems. In November 2008, the Company acquired MOR PPM, Inc. More from Reuters »
301 Merritt Seven Corp. Park
Norwalk, CT 06851
United States - Map
+1-203-8497800 (Phone)
+1-203-8497870 (Fax)
Company website:
http://www.emcorgroup.com
No position.
Patterns in gold
Perhaps this 1/21 article was posted previously. It's new to me. Do any of the PM bugs have an opinion/explanation?
http://tinyurl.com/ckbc3u
Re: "Worst lies of all? The ones you expect"
tonvol - Watch out for Mitch Albom, he would have you believe that Californians are at fault for global warming because they choose to commute for hours daily, and GM is therefore not responsible. The part he conveniently forgets to mention is the fact years ago GM bought and systematically dismantled most of California's public transportation system....
Re: "Worst lies of all? The ones you expect"
I've heard the stories of how the street trolleys were replaced. Don't know if the conspiracy theories are true or it was a case of capitalist money making Progress. Here is a link to a related article. I have read other versions. http://www.culturechange.org/issue10/taken-for-a-r...
"The Path to Financial Reform"
CP, NYUGrad,
As I read the NYT article I couldn't help seeing the similarity to the approach applied by our current Illinois Governor, Rod Badboyovich.
During a debate in his initial run for the spot (his opponent had the misfortune to have the same name as our latest jailbird Gov. Ryan) he claimed all kinds of programs coming our way. When asked how he would finance them he said he would "create a fund".
Ultimately that fund was created by taxing trucking, (driving many businesses out of our state) not paying state social services employees (since May of 2008)not paying state education portion AND huge increases in state fees for construction projects and other categories.
As for Obama "protecting the rights of all citizens" — I expect to see a few rights we didn't know existed (at least not in the U.S. Constitution). Barney Frank and a few others saw home ownership as a "right" and look where that has taken us.
I was willing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt on a lot of issues and will do the same for Obama, but I am not about to be swayed by the current talk of reform and all the beautiful promises any more than I was by the glorious vision of democratizing the world.
We used to say, "Talk is cheap," but we can see that is no longer so. I have serious reservations that anyone will take the difficult steps to fix our strangling economy.
I had breakfast with my younger son this morning. The printing company where he works is dangerously short of work. He has already lost his own graphics business due to non payment of bills in the 1990s by such clients as Target, BVD underwear and General Mills. He's been let go twice from other jobs since due to the slowing economy and has run out of unemployment insurance once. His best friend has just had to lay off nearly 15% of the workers at the family owned specialty steel company this week.
2_ave, I guess I would
2_ave,
I guess I would caution against generalizing about nearly anything. Some like change and others not so.
What I have always disliked most is having anyone control my life's choices.
I enlisted in the military before my draft number came up just to have it be MY decision as to when, what branch and how long. I signed on for six months active and the balance of my six years active reserve with the idea that if I found I liked it I might make it a career.
Before basic was over, I'd had my fill of dopey Officers with stupid ideas. The NCOs were all savvy Korean vets, but some of the younger officers were power drunk and show-offs.
Not for me.
I've never like commercial flying due to being treated like a captive of the airline rather than a customer.
I'm not much for fads. I dress the way I like and don't care what is "in". Listen to my own music choices or whatever. I don't object to others doing their own thing and would consider myself pretty much a social liberal as long as what people do is not detrimental to anyone else.
I saw much of this financial crisis building — avoided the tech crash and the housing credit bubble and have always been a fiscal conservative. I can't tell you how much I resent the lack of foresight and responsibility on the part of those charged with preventing it and the legislation which promoted the exporting of our best jobs.
I will never trust the government unless we get some accountability and justice instead of big talk and promises that can't be fulfilled.
To me Geithner is a metaphor for what we can expect out of Obama's administration. His tough talk on China manipulating their currency is IMO, a red herring designed deflect attention from his indiscretions and draw protective tariff advocates to back him. A popular idea right now.
Same old, same old D.C. political B.S.!
I'm getting it locally and at the state level also.
Medicare
Craig,
Medicare: Up until now I've had few complaints. Then, in October I got a notice from my supplementary insurance company of a bill they had paid by a doctor I've never heard of, in a hospital I've never seen, in a city I've only driven through, for a procedure I have never, ever had performed anywhere.
The problem as it turned out was a simple wrong middle initial.
It is still not concluded and I now have a stack of letters and questionnaires a half an inch thick, to and form insurance company, doctor, hospital, Medicare and our state insurance board.
Writing is my recommended approach — quicker than the push this, push that button way and once in writing little way to weasel out of who said what when.
I will say my VA experience has been basically good so far. In some ways better than my private doctor who is guided by what insurance will pay for.
Re: "The Path to Financial Reform"
Grym - Rule changes, innovative fee schedules, moving targets, bate and switch, etc, etc... These are the barriers to free trade that keep serious investing at bay. It's gotten really bad over the last 30 years or so with selectively composed (read:special interest groups) tax code loop-holes, ad-nausium. Is it really of any surprise why people don't/won't save when they now have a comprehensive understanding that anything saved will be swept away by a corrupt and unjust system of greed capable of reaching into their pockets in the dark of night? Even when they stash cash under the mattress it's buying power can become severely diminished in short order.
Can we really blame the non-savers in such an environment created by our regulatory shortcomings and dishonest money??? We are all a product of our manipulated environment.
Great WIR!
Loved the proof of concept section on CAT, and the commentary on BBY and oil sector.
Junior Gold Producers list
For those who may be interested, my watchlist of junior gold producers. I started a new list to follow companies with advanced projects and/or projects under construction.
Advanced Projects
3N6.F ADM.V AND.TO ANO.TO ATW.V AVR.V BCM.V CAH.AX CEE.TO CGA.TO CGX.AX CKG.V CPQ.V CRE.AX DGC.TO EGI GORO.OB GUY.TO HDG.TO IGO.AX IRN.AX KGL.AX LSG.TO MDL.AX MVG.TO MXI.V NAV.AX NSU NUS.TO OZN PLG.TO PRU.AX QMI.TO RMX.TO RRL.AX SGF.TO SRCH.OB TRE XPL XRC.V
1-50k oz.
AGT AMC.TO ANX.TO AR.L AVK.TO BDG.AX CGM.L CGR CMM.V CMR.L CRND.L CSG.V CTO.AX DNG.TO EEL.V EXM.V FGOC.OB FML.AX GMA.L GOZ.V HEG.AX HMB.L IMZ.TO JRV.AX KGI.TO LNV.F LOV.V MML.AX MTO.V MUN.AX MXR.AX ND.TO NGG.V NIS.V PTQ.TO RCT.V RDR.AX RMS.AX RNG.AX SAM.TO SGR.V SIM.TO SLR.AX SMC SRB.L TAM.AX TBR.AX TRY.AX WSRA.PK
50k oz-100k oz
ALD.AX ANV AVO.AX AXM.AX BCD.AX CGLD.OB CLF.L DIO.AX DMM.TO DRA.AX EET.TO FIU.TO FPM.L GBG LMA.TO MAI.TO MDL.AX MDN.TO MIRL.L MRU.AX NQM.AX ORV.TO OXS.L PNA.AX RIC SBM.AX UME.V VGAS.L VGM.L WDO.TO
100k oz+
2899.HK 3330.HK 600547.SS AGI.TO ARZ.TO AVM.L AZK CRU.TO DOM.AX DROOY EGO GRS HMY HOC.L HRG.TO IAG JAG.TO JIN.TO KCN.AX MFN NGD NGF.AX NGL.L NXG OGC.AX PAF.L POG.L QUA.TO RBI.TO SGX.AX SMF.TO WGI.TO
"The Path to Financial Reform"
CP, I don't blame the non-savers right now. Too many people are increasingly living from paycheck to paycheck. (Over the past several decades many should/could have saved and probably wish now, that they had.)
Locally a newspaper columnist ran an article last week about how since the 1980s our city has lost so many good manufacturing jobs. He went on to say that while CEOs didn't really want to outsource and offshore those jobs, but globalization forced them to do so.
BULL! Blaming the mysterious and vague "Globalization" is a dodge to void naming names. Since the early 1960s I worked on between 60 and 70 annual reports for area companies. I was in meetings where the benefits of buying standard fasteners (screws and nails) from Taiwan or mainland China was debated as far back as 1985. The only question: Who will make us the most profit?
I saw a CEO voted a six-figure bonus in a year when the earnings were down over 23%. The CEOs of six companies I did reports for served on each others boards and compensation committees. (A lot like congress.)
Over the years I pointed out and at times argued with some of the top management about: The dangers of rescinding the Glass Steagall Act, the effect on the nation as a whole when our manufacturing capability was gone, etc. I pointed out what his company contributed to the "War Effort" during WW2. The company is now gone. I'm sure he is doing just fine.
When one CEO said to me, "I see you're still driving that foreign car (my VW Super Beetle), when are you going to get rid of it?" I replied, "Cal, I'll make you a deal...I'll sell my VW and buy a new American made one, if you will sell your plants in Japan and Holland." Neither of us sold.
What led to our sorry state of our economy is a long time combination of greedy practices and cooperative legislators.
People were encouraged to send jobs to the lowest cost markets which immediately boosted their bottom line, This raised stock share prices and they execised stock options at a fraction of the market price.
Lenders (including Fannie and Freddie) were paid a percentage of the money loaned — encouraging loose policies and shaky deals.
Legislation promoted further offshoring by giving tax breaks on offshore earnings. (The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 had no guaranty of any jobs here.)
All of the above were done under the guise of Free Enterprise and Free Markets — an idea which was quickly forgotten when the wealthiest began to feel the squeeze in 2007.
Now it is too late and those at the top who brought it on are being protected while the lowest are getting stuck with the bill.
Zimbabwe
I never realized just how wealthy people are in Zimbabwe until I read early this month that they have so much money they have just come out with a Z$100 trillion note. They also said, Other notes in trillion-dollar denominations of 10, 20 and 50 are also being released to help Zimbabweans cope with hyperinflation.
We may want to take note in order to cope with it ourselves:-)
Who knows about Noth American Palladium?
Presuming a rise in Palladium prices, who among you knows about the in's and out's of this company, which I remember reading shut it's mine down a while ago.
Is PAL going to be a pal?
Re: Banks
Grym, very interesting article and one that about sums up where we're at today, and where we might be headed; I somehow can't see interest rates going any lower (the real question is - how long will they stay at these levels), and explains why people are still willing to but Treasurys at these low rates. There was a time when I took 5 1/2% interest on passbook savings accounts for granted.
From WIR: "Don’t dismiss the
From WIR: "Don’t dismiss the importance of psychology. If we think we can; we can."
In a bookstore yesterday, lazily browsing the shelves while my wife looked for a specific title for a present, I happen to open (with smirk on my face, I admit) an unlikely book, kind of spiritual guide to moneymaking. First paragraph I read on an accidentally opened page wiped that smirk off my face, and I went into pain of writing it down. Book is published in 1988, mind you, not a gimmick hurriedly written to exploit current economic debacle.
"Large groups of people generate powerful thought-forms that may affect your thinking. For instance, at times people are fearful about a depression or recession coming. You may be subconsciously tuning in to their thoughts and fears and responding to them as if they were your own. Wherever you are, there are some people who feel they are living in troubled economic times and others who feel that the times are the best they have ever been. You create your prosperity no matter what the economy is like. Your challenge is to keep your thoughts about your economic future positive and not be affected by what large groups of people are thinking or saying. Even during the worst economic times there are businesses and people who do quite well. You are the source of your abundance."
US banks/EU banks - and a rally
Hmm... I remember hearing an interview with Charlie Rose and Nick Taleb. Nick said that banking will most like be nationalized sometime in the next year. I was blown away but it got me thinking about how big the problem is. This is a money/debt problem. Solution? Save and let the bad debt go.
Banking will be nothing more than a utility in the future. You need access and the right to use an ATM machine to get money...
All money center banks are insolvent - don't believe me if you will but for gosh sake, look what has happened over the past 12 months. It is only getting worst, day by day. Look at the herd don't follow or get in queue with the herd.
CRE is more leveraged than the housing market. Retail, office bankruptcies are coming and vacancies will only increase. The majority of the financing deals from 2k5-2k7 were based on fantasy future abilities to collect higher rents. Rents are decreasing because of vacancy (supply demand) rates are going up. The moon-shoot hasn't even started.
Saw a statistic from a news letter EU banks lend 4.4 trillion to emerging economies out of the 4.8 trillion dollars lent to emerging economies. If you though the "sub prime" trigger was bad, wait for this one.
I have access to his TGL on a daily basis... All due respect to Mr. Gartman, he has been long gold for several weeks. He specifically stated that he dislikes being long gold and if prices broke $885ish. Yeah it is wrong for pundits to take credit on national tv after they appear to not really be sold on their move but in his defense his fund was only down a few percentage points on the year vs the blood bath in the markets. As a fact I would argue that those that were in cash as a large percentage faired better than TGL.
Major rally coming? Sure we already missed one from 741 s&p to 942 s&p. That is a 27% gain from the nov 21s lows to Jan 6ish.... Where will the next rally take us too???
Current S & P earnings are from 42-48 revised down from lower levels. The 2002 levels were 24. Do you believe this recession is worst or better than the 2002 recession?
My bet is we will have a strong rally here soon, or after we break the lows. It could be a meaningful one too but nevertheless, my guess it will be a suckers rally. The rally will raise prices to blow through the "stimuli". Sounds great right, meaning all we did was pull forward the demand of the future by borrowing more money. On the bright side the debt will be at historical lows in rates. Another bonus, at least we don't live in the EU or UK.
Eventually the new business cycle starts and business begins.
Re: Great WIR!
I was most impressed with Bill's tone - Upbeat and Proud - especially with respect to CTAB - you deserve it Bill.
other side of the coin
From panzer's blog - "A Repeating Pattern." --- EURO headwinds
http://www.economicroadmap.com/
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2009/Celente...
click for MP3 link, listen around 25 minutes.
Celente makes more predictions about what is to come. You don't have to believe them but it would be wise to listen to the thoughts just one time. Mindful of the possible future but obviously live in the present.
Jeremy Grantham summarized
http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/the-re...
"The Real Problem: Our Debt Mountain"
Re: From WIR: "Don’t dismiss the
Vadym,
That's inspirational man. I have to say Vadym, the second half of your first book contains within it a couple of principles which are so key, such as the price volume spikes around capitulation and euphoria, such as the possible behaviors of stocks that are under accumulation, and more. Great stuff man. Great stuff.
Re: US banks/EU banks - and a rally
norm - I completely agree with your sense of the worst yet to come, and I'll add that my belief, realistically speaking, is the impact will be felt for much longer than many are imagining. Losses to date are incredibly massive; world economies are still sinking, real estate, both residential and commercial, are obviously yet to find a bottom. This translates to additional losses on someone's books. Of course we're likely to see higher equities prices in the interim, and I'm just as confident we'll see lower equities prices in the future, likely reaching incredible new lows as the bottoming process continues.
Good luck to all in your trading endeavors, keep your antennas tuned on the activities of the establishment who from my perspective may be posturing to stomp down "speculative" activity using means favorable to and designed by special interests.
Democrats: Stimulus plan no
Democrats: Stimulus plan no quick fix for economy- AP
"The White House warned Sunday that the country could face a long and painful financial recovery, even with major government intervention to stimulate the economy and save financial institutions."
The new administration aligning themselves with the economy-bashing media...
link reference
Bill - is it possible that the reference link to messages/replies are static when there is greater than 1 page of messages. If you click on a link from the homepage 'recent messages' it doesn't go directly to the message it does hit the page though. drupal bug?
I think market in near term
I think market in near term will move either way base on what happens to CDS written against the top four money center banks, which are all much closed to public ownership. And when loss rates eat remaining private common and preferred
Friday rally at end was short covering; they may not take it to weekend because of uncertain result of stimulation plan’s impact. Short may come back on Monday and take this market down.
For me, my expectation and reality does not sink. I expected rally to take us to Mount Obama, but did not happen. Reading many article on market this week end I am more confuse than I was on Friday.
I am thinking what will happen to dollar/gold/oil/market if US cannot meet it liability, like Asian financial crisis, Mexico crisis or Russian crisis.
Asia down pre market
http://tinyurl.com/a8qvjq
Futures
Nikkei 225 7,560.00 -170.00
Topix 760.00 -11.00
Hang Seng 12,464.00 -108.00
Singapore Straits Times 1,684.00 -23.00
S&P/ASX 3,329.00 18.00
Novellus Cu Interconnect Technology
goldbug58 - TEL/NVLS announced a breakthrough in their sub-30nm copper interconnect technology last month, this press release is from the Japanese side of the cooperative venture...
BTW - A copper atom has a diameter of 2.551 x 10^-10 m
http://www.tel.com/eng/news/2008/1201_003.htm
Warren Buffet Interview
Not sure whether it was already posted here or no
http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/research/learnmore/090...
Re: Junior Gold Producers list
Thank you Billy.
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
Politicians always do what is politically profitable. If the tax sells and buys votes, it will pass
Another thing that frosts my proverbial posterior regarding this "tax". I love that comment about how speculation provides no social contribution. HAH! (in deference to Kaimu). So, all those capital gains taxes paid by speculators provide no societal contribution? I guess it's better to put speculators out of business so they can join the unemployment and welfare line!!!!!
Re: "The Path to Financial Reform"
I agree with you Grym. Politicians are politicians first and foremost. Even if Obama is the political Messiah, Congress is still the priests at the temple.
Re: I think market in near term
"Reading many articles on market this week end I am more confused than I was on Friday."
vinod- LOL...that would be a normal response to reading the number of different opinions out there...
i'll wager there as many successful traders betting on a ST move up as there are betting on a ST move down...and based on trading acumen and experience, both groups will probably succeed, in the sense that both will 'manage' their portfolios appropriately (if two generals of equal skill meet in battle, and one retreats, we still don't know who the superior strategist is, and which will ultimately prevail)...
most timing newsletters get it wrong, despite the fact that if some are betting up and some are betting down, someone has to be right...the problem is to be consistently right, and no one is...
when i'm overloaded with opinions, i fall back to basic principles: buy low (weakness), sell high (strength); reasonable position sizes; reversion to the mean; the swing of the pendulum (sentiment invariably changes); and we all have our own intuitions tailored to the way we trade the markets...
ABX Lawsuit
"RENO -- A federal judge intends to rule Monday on a complicated legal battle that pits religious and environmental concerns against the economic interests of hundreds of Nevada miners and the world's biggest gold mining company."
Will the judge rule against ABX in favor of the Shoshone??? Could be some interesting ABX price action tomorrow...
http://www.lvrj.com/news/38291704.html
Re: Asia down pre market
vinod- notice how the Nikkei futures were -170 an hour ago, and now it's trading at -25...what does any of that mean to me? nothing, really. i'm not trading it right now. S&P futures are -5.50 right now...what does that mean? nothing. i can't trade it right now, and it could be +21.00 in 12 hours. on the other hand, traders who bought the Nikkei pre-market and selling it now made an excellent trade. none of the above was 'predictable' in the sense of preparing for it based on weekend reading. but there were plenty of traders who took one look at the futures, and made a reasonable bet based on technicals, intuition, or experience.
Re: US banks/EU banks - and a rally
CP
please shed light on your statement - I am lost...
"Good luck to all in your trading endeavors, keep your antennas tuned on the activities of the establishment who from my perspective may be posturing to stomp down "speculative" activity using means favorable to and designed by special interests."
I agree with you - rally will come....
IMO
lows may/will be breached and a rally will follow - followed by lower lows after an impressive rally.
that is my fortune telling which isn't worth the key-stokes of time that it was typed on..
Wish I was more of a believer over a year ago, would of been better prepared.
Re: Good Online Radio Interview/ UK Sterling, gilt, POO
Commodity Watch Radio just posted an interview, pretty good assessment of the UK situation:
http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2009/01/25/mike-...
Re: From WIR: "Don’t dismiss the
Sharkie,
thank you. Those principles are timeless. They worked in Livermore's times; they were first described in the books published in 1910-30s; they work today just as flawlessly. Some things just never change, and this method of reading the market is based on one of those things - mass psychology.
When the educational blogs are rolled out as a part of this site I intend, among other things, to post a few articles serving as a brief overview of those principles - not as a book replacement but kind of refreshment course and a handy reference.
Re: Warren Buffet Interview
Thanks for the link. The problem is that Warren stated that he learned everything that he needed to know about stock investing from Graham's "The Intelligent Investor", particularly chapters 8 and 20. I own that book and there is not a chapter 20. It stops at 16. What's up! I will have to email him and find out what he meant.
Re: Warren Buffet Interview
"The problem is that Warren stated that he learned everything that he needed to know about stock investing from Graham's "The Intelligent Investor", particularly chapters 8 and 20."
The other problem is there must be millions of investors who know that book as well as he does (or better), but have been unable to match his performance. Some talents are difficult to 'acquire' if one is not already in possession of them.
Re: Intelligent Investor
Chapter 8 The Investor & Market Fluctuations
Chapter 20 Margin of Safety
OT Watering Holes On A Friday Afternoon.......
Vinod, your Friday post on being "in a bar after work" triggered a lot of memories for me, circa 1986-88.
I'd meet friends in the broker/dealer business on Friday afternoons in Manhattan. Whether at downtown bars like McAnn's and McSorley's or in uptown ones like Lucy's, there was always a story about the week's ups and downs in the markets.
Somebody said, "Buy Manville preferred", I did. It was my first trade. Flush with cash from working on tankers as third mate, I was eager to get in on the action.
Fast forward to early 2007, when I discovered Bill's site.
In that twenty year span, I was a reckless, ignorant investor, with near delusional ideas on how to invest. Always chasing the 'story stocks'. And for that, I did not particpate and profit from the late 90's bull market or the '03-'07 bull run as I could have. I was too busy chasing penny stocks that would become the 'next Microsoft'. Oh well.
My point is:
Like you, I've learned a heck of a lot here from the Cara Community.
And I've changed.
I had an epiphany of sorts in December. One day, I finally 'Got It'. I'm talking about suffering losses, both realized and unrealized, through last year's rollercoaster ride/cliff dive and understanding the reality of protecting wealth first, taking risks second. Yep, it took nearly two years to purge my mind of the broken model of 'investing' I used.
Better late than never?!
Thank you, Bill. Thank you to all who post and share.
Re: Transaction Taxes / Tax and Spend???
Chickenpookie, we got it right. This brilliant idea came from Dean Baker, economist, at The Center For Economic Research And Policy, according to a article in Barrons today. This tax is meant to curb "excessive" speculation. Aren't we all speculating, but with different time frames and directions?
Re: Asia down pre market/Year of the Ox
and of course, most other asian markets closed for the lunar new year...
Re: Adam Hewison Suggests A Trade To Watch
Adam Hewison suggests a trade to watch along with a video:
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/abx_barrick_gold/
(should be playing out in many stocks in the gold sector including the exploration stocks)
Re: Warren Buffet Interview
greg,
My copy (forth revised edition) has 20 chapters. Ch.20 is "Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept of Investment.
Re: President's Speech
FLR
Re: Zimbabwe
Grym -
Someone (can't remember) posted this here about a month ago: Zimbabwe visual ride of hyperinflation to make your toes curl.
http://humorland.wordmess.net/20081025/what-the-re...
Re: Warren Buffet Interview
I have the original 1949 edition with 16 chapters. The investor and stock market fluctuations is in Part 1, numeral II. "Margin of Safety as a central concept of investment" is in Part 4, numeral XVI.
2nd,
I believe that the difference between Buffett and anyone else is that he holds true to the concept of "extreme long term investing". He does not look at daily stock prices as much as he looks at the business and the management and he buys to become "one" with them. If he feels that he is getting a share of the company for a really good price, he buys some with no regard to the stock market or economic cycle.
WIR technical problem?
Somewhere in the 10 domestic sectors review, I started thinking this sounds like last week's review. By the gold review, I definitely knew the commentary hadn't been updated, but the charts were updated.
Re: US banks/EU banks - and a rally
norm - Try this on for size... http://tinyurl.com/dm8ujs
This (or some variation thereof) could blindside the market into a selling impulse.
Re: Asia down pre market/Year of the Ox
2nd, how much weight do you give TA?
Former Cara 100 member NTES. not ready yet but
...watching it
http://tinyurl.com/ahaehk
the weekly charts show more room to go down. but i like the potential the chart conveys. extremely oversold momentum on stochastic and the MACD trend seems to be reversing slowly upwards, but not yet. RSI momentum is not oversold but is pointing up and has a lot of room to reach overbought.
No position.
Re: WIR technical problem?
Stevec - Yes, there were recycled text, but the entire document was updated in many ways to reflect new realities, including much new text. All of the material are up to date.
Re: Asia down pre market/Year of the Ox
Mark - TA - This can be considered an art form, just as fundamental analysis. That said, TA takes many forms, and is simply another tool that traders utilize in the decision making process. TA can become quite complex, time consuming, and productive. Some traders use nothing else and are quite successful, avoiding FA altogether, ie: media spin and herd mentality.
Take a look at Bill's RSI tool at the top of the page, it's very simple and actually quite effective in increasing the odds of making better decisions once you learn how to use it properly.
Drivel?
I posted this yesterday:
"Submitted by nemo on Sat, 01/24/2009 - 11:22. #8490
Yesterday had an interesting program from the AEI. Here is a link to the description on the AEI website: http://www.aei.org/events/eventID.1862,filter.all,...
If any have a chance to see it in re-run this weekend (Of course Bill will be on the beach :)), it might be worth your while. One of the more interesting points that Phil Gramm made was that the the "repeal" of the Glass Steagall act was not really a deregulation, it was an "updating" of the associations in the financial industry that were already taking place, and that there was no repeal of any of the regulation that governed the individual entities from different areas of the financial world. He made the point that one could arguably say, from the history of Glass Steagall, that it was designed specifically to neutralize J. P. Morgan.
He went on to say that Credit Default Swaps are actually beneficial for this reason: The current rating agencies are part of a cartel that was not particularly good at doing their jobs. CDSs, as trading vehicles (and he fully supported clearinghouses and market mechanisms for them) are more efficient than rating agencies because as tradeable securities, they would have many more analysts reviewing their quality than the rating agency cabal, and would likely be a better determinant of credit worthiness.
Anyway...there were several panelists, as you will see from the link, and they provided interesting insights into the causes, current situation, and future concerns, from an economic, fiscal, and political point of view."
and then this was posted in response:
"Re: CSPAN2
Submitted by number2son on Sat, 01/24/2009 - 12:33. #8492 (Posted in reply to this comment (#8490))
nemo, you lost me at "interesting points that Phil Gramm ..."
Is anyone looking at GE at these levels? It's trading at book value and the RSI's place it squarely in the accumulation zone."
These type of responses worry me. I try to hold to Bill's ideals about this forum staying above the fray, in that it seems it is widely read by many across the finacial/political/social spectrum.
I realize Mr. Gramm has been a pinata for the financial conflagration, but I have learned in the almost 50 years I've trudged this earth that often what I thought I knew turned out to be false. So, I listen to the Barney Frank's, the Rush Limbaugh's, the Ron Paul's and the Bill Cara's. They all frame their arguments remarkably well.
What I am sure of, is the farther removed a nugget of information is from it's original source, the more likely it is to be changed or shaded...even twisted. I believe someone in this blog, in response to the alleged quote from Marx, cited Snopes as the debunking authority...but I have had my own concerns about Snopes...which a subsequent blogger seems to confirm. This, of course brings me back to one of my favorite quotes, "History is merely a fantasy upon which we all agree."
Just as the market overshoots to both the downside and upside, so do our decisions on who is right and who is wrong. What Gramm does is give us words directly from his own mouth we can then research. He also provides a basis for the origins of Glass Steagall, which we can now research. So, instead of having second, third, fourth...hand sources, we have it directly from the horses mouth.
So...out of a passionate response to the seeming transgressions, do we reject a rational approach to seek out the logic and reason framed by those we no longer hold in esteem? I have been trained, for better or for worse, that both sides of a phenomena must be understood to understand completeness. I will give a simple syllogism I use when discussing the concepts of good and evil in a much larger discussion with the devout.
The simple thesis is God is the source of evil. The reasoning: To most Judeo/Christian religions God is the definition of goodness. To these same religions Satan is the source of evil. What is Satan? A fallen angel. Who created the angels? Therefore, who created evil?
My chief concern is the rejection of reasoned arguments. Specifically, in this economic situation, the passionate rejection of reasoned arguments and the general herd of man will give politician's the ability to drive policy under such acute conditions to places that will leave us much worse off in the future.
Let's not forget that both parties had their hands in this right up to their elbows, starting with Roosevelt and bookended by Bush and a Congress controlled by the Democrats.
I hope Obama is willing to wield that veto vigorously and often
Re: Asia down pre market/Year of the Ox
Thanks Chickenpookie. I am trying to learn how to look at things beyond my engineering back ground. Good luck to everyone tomorrow...anyone also worried that POG seems a little crowded right now?
preparing to buy more ESLR
Placing a buy stop limit order (stop 2.29, limit 2.32) for about 8% of the cash I currently have uninvested (about 12% of my portfolio). ESLR got ahead of the market during the recent sell-off and is getting close to its November 21 low. Given the predicted earnings of $0.34 per share in 2009 (by Jeff Osborne, an analyst with Thomas Weisel Partners, as I found today after browsing the recent ESLR news), the current stock price seems like a good value.
Monday MACD
http://tinyurl.com/dxhfxb
Happy New yrs everyone
To anyone Asian or to those who celebrate.
CAT cutting 20k jobs, down 14% pre market
Gold acting nice pre market
Pfizer down pre market, buys Wyeth at 30% premium to Fri close, cutting 10%.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
GRMN - Upgraded to Sector Perform @ RBC
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Downgrades:
BBBY - to Underweight @ JP Morgan
BHP - to Hold @ Citigroup
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GSK - Coverage Initiated @ Jefferies & Co. with a Buy.
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SLB - Price Target Lowered from $48 to $47 @ Jefferies & Co.
Re: Drivel?
nemo - Gramm/Leach/Bliley Act - Something went wrong when the banking industry began extending mortgages to families and individuals who were incapable of meeting their payment schedules. Phil Gramm was involved in the fray, so I bestow upon him doubt, along with a host of others who obviously voted yea. So what do CDS's have to do with the housing crisis? Best I can tell, these unregulated instruments enabled the incredible leveraging necessary for catapulting the housing market into bubble status. Okay, so perhaps one could argue that CDS's are beneficial in some aspects however, these were the unregulated vehicle peddled behind closed doors in the dark of night, these were the vehicles used to build the house of cards that brought the financial system to it's knees, these were the vehicles which allowed financial institutions the ability to finance scores of homes for families who couldn't possibly afford to make good on their debt. When massive default is allowed to fester in a debt based society, there is a possibility to create a systemic credit market shutdown. We are now witnessing just such an event, no matter what anyone in Congress might say or feel. Ratings agencies base their conclusions on publicly available information, and were (still are?) compensated by the instruments creator for such, creating an instant conflict of interest. This is how lack of regulatory oversight, conflict of interest, and lack of opaqueness all came into confluence to create the largest financial screw-up in America's history. I don't appreciate this one bit, and will spend the rest of my life voting out whomever, as a result. I hope you start with Barney Frank, I assisted Mark Warner's election recently.
BTW - I disagree that often what you've thought to be true turned out to be false, but have no fear, the current situation and it's causes are in fact very real, not simply a mental recession. To suggest otherwise borders on the insane, IMO.
Re: PALM
VB see all the links to former APPL people and suspect this has become very personal. Am reminded of the RIMM litigation w/patent trolls a few years back and that was a damper on the stock until it was resolved. They should by PALM but doubt it will happen. They'll squeeze PALM w/or w/out the all-star cast at Elevation Partners unfortunately.
You still long? I took a decent gain on it but ran before it ran, didn't need a repeat of BC where I became an 'investor' for a time.