Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Jan. 30, 2009

Unfortunately Tim Geitner is in charge of the IRS. So, I wouldn't be too optimistic about any investigations of his friends.

Requesting proper handling of WGW. Followed chart plan to leave at 1.78. Does anyone think it will come back to us?

Looks like premarket oil related stocks Hal -SLB - UCO - USO suddenly took off?

that's 9.35% in less than 10 minutes...

you mean these ERX [energy] TYH [Technology]

My charts are showing that either we are sitting on a Sept-22-08 or Dec-01-08 like situation. Can go either way, but I'm with 2nd ave, betting for up. FD: long FAS, TNA, QLD, energy and miners.

QT- thank you...just looking at the volume, i guess those would not be pre-market candidates...bid/ask spreads are ridiculous...

Again, don't comment much, just observe.

Good point on Kaimu sharky, I needed that laugh.

Jack Black, I enjoy reading your posts but I always imagine the actor "Jack Black" bhind your computer.

Good luck to everyone today and as always thank you for your discourse and insight.

hoping for an intraday rally into EOM...

Stake my future on a hell of a past
Looks like tomorrow is a coming on fast
Ain't complaining about what I got
Seen better times but who has not.

Silvio silver and gold
Won't buy back the beat of a heart grown cold
Silvio I gotta go
Find out something only dead men know.

Honest as the next jade rolling that stone
When I come and knockin' don't throw me no bone
I'm an old boll weevil looking for a home
If you don't like it you can leave me alone.

I can snap my fingers and require the rain
From a clear blue sky and turn it off again
I can stroke your body and relieve your pain
And charm the whistle off an evening train.

Silvio silver and gold
Won't buy back the beat of a heart grown cold
Silvio I gotta go
Find out something only dead men know

Give what I got until I got no more
I take what I get until I even the score
You know I love you and further more
When it is time to go you got an open door.

I can tell your fancy I can tell your plain
You give something up for ev'rything you gain
Since ev'ry pleasure's got an edge of pain
Pay for your ticket and don't complain.

One of these days and it won't be long
Going down the valley and sing my song
I will sing it loud and sing it strong
Let the echo decide if I was right or wrong.

Silvio silver and gold
Won't buy back the beat of a heart grown cold
Silvio I gotta go
Find out something only dead men know.

-B Dylan

BH, thank you. Your posts are much appreciated.

the pre market volume on many of the metals are suspect.

not meant as advice. just my observation

CHRW - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Sell. Price target raised to $49 from $41.

NUE - downgraded at Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Buy. Price target at $44.

OXPS - Downgraded to Market Perform @ BMO

RIMM - Price Target Raised from $62 to $85 @ AmTech Research

-------------

SiO2 - Your thanks are appreciated. Sorry for the late report today, the old Bull Hunter was tired from shoveling snow and scraping ice and needed some sleep. ;^)

maybe the volume kicks in today...

They just raised their dividend.

In the spirit of reducing unnecessary blog traffic and additional reading burden, I feel it's necessary for me to cut back on posting my trades here.

selling's overdone (and maybe done) on BAC/C/JPM...JMO

Yesterday the bankers get exposed for sodomizing the next 2 generations of taxpayers.
Today they are all trading higher.
JPM UBS C GS USB BAC WFC STI
An unexposed ponzi scheme.

Good morning – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond price suffered a large decline yesterday following no clear indication by the Fed of its intentions to purchase the notes leading to a spike in the yield to 2.80% this morning. This compares with yields around 2.1% early this year and 2.54% yesterday morning, and has moved mortgage rates significantly off recent lows. This follows a decline in safe haven purchases of the Treasury notes in the face of huge new issues of Treasury notes, and statements that Japan and China are lowering exposure to Treasury debt. Happy Trading

dont think terryc was pointing the finger at you specifically. As long as you are following the rules posted, and you feel you are adding value, you should post.

i am in the 300s with posts. mainly cuz i try to post my logic so someone can volunteer to prove me wrong so i can learn. or i am complaining about something.

:)

In today's Daily Report, and in previous reports, Bill references bonds generally, as in "This Bear move in Bonds (see Cara Trade of the Generation in late November 2008) has just begun, and one could argue the bond bull market lasted for 28 years, so the corresponding Bear will be many years long, not just a couple months."

Is this thesis focused solely on treasury bonds, and if not, what other types of bonds might be considered at risk if this thesis holds true in the coming years? I'm concerned about my mother's modest retirement income account, which is mostly in a variety of different bonds, and which likely needs rebalancing/reconsideration. Thanks in advance.

These here stocks don't seem to have any "up" in them. Sold the AUY and am surprised by the bad action.

I may not be that jack black but I sure look like him, so your imagination is correct.

Very true. At the end of this protracted depression (no doubt about it; the only doubt is inflationary vs deflationary), there will be backlash against bankers, but we are not there yet. I'm hoping good traders will survive (maybe I have a chance?), but buy and hold will perish.

I have benefited greatly from thinking in print from the likes of Si02, NYUGrad, CP, Vinod, Johnny, Cosa, Dave, Mr. Florida...and of course, mostly by reading Bill Cara diligently.......and for those whose name I failed to mention (all the rest of you), I learn when I read your thinking, your losses and your gains.......keep posting

position......cash in the IRA 100%

Inv acct......90% cash....with a few leaps and longs..

"Sitting", waiting, looking.....

Three market aspects hold my attention now, PM, oil and bonds.....learning how and when to add to my holdings.....I can't take in a wide range of positions and stocks like many of you....if I can execute let's say 4 things well this year, really well....it will be a good year...

nice to see the jump overnight,
but the more common habit of the POG is to begin falling in the early morning w/ the gold stocks opening higher then moving down steadily lower.

HGU at $12.95 w/ spot gold at $915. i didnt consider the upside move in the miners yesterday worth nothing accept for NEM which had a massive spike.

we have seen this many times before where quick and sudden spikes up occur before the gains get taken away through the day. if we can hold some gains and close the week on a higher note above $910 i think this will be a good sign.

We talked about COF briefly yesterday. I mentioned that it would be a possible short once it got back into the low $20s. Well, they're still selling it down today as it has hit a new 52 week low.

The stock is mired in a well-defined downward channel, the bottom of which would be hit if the stock gets down to the $15.50-.75 area. It could get there pretty soon judging by the current action, but it's anyone's guess. If it does, it could certainly bounce off that level and pop back up to top of the channel which is around $18ish.

All this said, I simply do not see merit in going long the financials (other than for a very short term trade) as no one knows if and when the govt. is going to nationalize them and/or wipe out equity (and possibly even bond) holders.

Piece in the FT showing synchronous (non?)bubbles in stocks and housing in UK, US and Japan
http://tinyurl.com/bwvo2w

Gold is good

Vad, PALM has been all over the place this AM, touched 7.52 but seems challenged to go back through 8, Q:if it stays below 8 the remainder of this session do you think it needs to retest the 5.40 level before hitting the box?

It seems to be moving with market at this point. Revisited yesterday's resistance during morning market spike, dropped with it, bounced with it... I just shelve it for now until it forms something again

Here's the online straddles calculator tool mentioned a few days ago: http://nexalogic.com/nexastraddles.html

You need to enter the option strikes and prices manually and it will compute the max. move required. The idea is to automate this price fetching process at some point.

Still working on it. Errors, comments, suggestions welcome.

BTW, some of this week's straddle results: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/SYMb2E_9SgI/...

It is missing NCX, JNPR, IP, RCL and several others which are dropping off a cliff today.

Also, a new DOW 30 table/chart similar to the CARA100: http://nexalogic.com/dow30.html

it will inevitably be adjusted down

interesting breakdown, i usually ignore all the options dates but ill take a serious look at this over the weekend.

thx.

I just read Cash 4 Gold ads during the stupidbowl are going to feature MC Hammer and Mr. Ed McMahon. I wonder where Ed is living now since he lost his home last summer.

Kinross looking pretty shrewd in its acquisition of Aurelian.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/headline_n...

I come up with the Dow down roughly 8 1/2% so far for the January effect.
Presidential election year effect seems to be in sync.
Then there's always the Superbowl indicator for Sunday.
Anyone quantifying skirt lengths rising or falling?

teamonfuego said:

"i'm beginning to get a little more positive and am slowly putting my money into the market at these prices ..."

I like your positive attitude and take on things, and wish I could join you in accumulating stocks for the long term. But I don't see anything on the horizon other than a possible short term boost from the Obama/Bush stimulus package #2. Longer term, we have some very big issues that if left go, will only make the situation much worse and last longer.

I'll change my mind when I see politicians face the facts and make the tough decisions to make corporate executives accountable for their actions, implement the necessary financial reforms, and do less meddling and allow the markets to act freely.

But then according to some, I'm one to be faded, so maybe this is the bottom and it's all happy sailing from here.

Agree 100%. I expected this market bust since long time ago based on demographics rather than debt cycle . I did not expect this to be a rapid process though and was surprised by the rapid October crash (which could be easily just the oil aftershock). So, even if there is a recovery in oil prices (as we all know) and credit (TED spread is going down for a few months now), the long term demographics issue will catch up sooner or later. There will be no new bull before exhaustion. That usually takes longer than 1.5 years. Any bullish action (if any) this spring I will use to raise cash.

Short this week, without too many questions registered.

Don was very disappointed by Obama's stimulus package, which did not turn out targeted, temporary, or over time budget-neutral, as Summers had earlier called for.

By further debasing the US$, Coxe held the package responsible for gold's breakout today. (The euro, swiss franc and yen don't seem worthy either). He scratched his head as to why Geithner (and Biden!) would rattle their sabres against China as a "currency manipulator" when the oil states (including Russia) are not in position to absorb huge new amounts of US treasuries. (In the 70s, there had been two strong alternatives to the dollar: the German mark, and the (partially gold-backed) swiss franc. Now there are none.)

He half-agreed with Putin's Davos outburst against Wall St. - saying we don't NEED them, and that regional banks can fulfill the legitimate public function of banks, if they can get beyond current problems with commercial real estate loans.

Coxe suggested that next week "password protection" may be added to his audiocasts (which will be run from his new website: http://donaldcoxe.com/Home.html).

Does anyone know how we can continue to have access? I'll be contacting his office.

The cast I have just summarized can be heard starting noon EST at:

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/...

>I believe there will be a huge move of accounts to the mid-sized banks that have been prudently managed.

Made that move a year ago. We saw UBS taking us for a ride. Mortgage interest rates, fund management fees, account fees - all too high, and I understood where they were going as every Christmas new records were set for employee bonuses.

UBS has been abandoned by its once loyal Swiss account holders.

It's happening in Europe.

NY Times reports on Wall St. bonuses:

Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut said “every possible legal means” should be used to claw back the money.

If he wanted legal means to claw back bonuses shouldn't he have written them into TARP? Sorry, but Dodd is a dodo. He is also threatening to have a those that doled out the bonuses summoned before his committee. I'm not sure what he thinks that will accomplish.

Foz,
There is an interesting article by Jim Jubak today, The new financial bubble is here. (Treasuries)

http://tiny.cc/w4ITj

I've been in a Treasuries-only mutual fund since 10-20-08 which yields close to 3% (due to laddering) and simply pull out gains periodically. Also, you might want to try the ETF LQD which is corp bonds paying about 5.5% (this is protectable with stops).

As for others like munis, I would be very cautious since, if the city is in the kind of debt mine is, they could be a problem. I like the ETF for corp bonds due to the stop feature.

I am retired and protecting assets is primary with me.

I think we are ever so slowly moving up. UCO seems to have a base !10.45 and could move either way, but I just don't see a lot of downside at the moment. I hold UCO@10.02 from yesterday and very stupidly violate my own rules and failed to sell into yesterdays rally nor this mornings. I need to get my mojo back! At least I'm in the black.

Pulling trigger on SRDX. Have a bid in at 19.99....Mentioned reasons yesterday.

Gold iz up twenny-three-fitty an ounce!

Bill -
"At no time in history do I think has the public opposition to the mega-bankers been so broad and deep."

Average Joe I talk to here in Michigan doesn't know JPMorgan Chase from Mercantile Bank of Washtenaw. Troubles me.

"And, should HB&B continue to ignore the public, I believe there will be a huge move of accounts to the mid-sized banks that have been prudently managed."

Logical but TARP moneys and new accelerated tax write-off provisions can be used by Humungous Bankers to consolidate mid-sized banks in a M&A frenzy. Maybe local business will be more supportive of the community banks but when account limits are at only $20 million, who do you use?

Just my observations.

bobbyo,

try selling your losers and see if they go up! :-)

Target 22.50
09030N4X1K Cash Buy 200 shares DZZ at 22 Limit Day 01/30/09 Filled

01/30/09 13:16 Filled 200 at 22

FAS in 9:57am@$9.77 out 1:08pm@10.1271 a good trade.
UCO in 1/29 9:43-10:14am @$10.027. Held overnight, out 12:51-1:03pm@$10.69
Purposely missed two spectacular spikes 1/30 between 12 & 1pm and open this morning. I even had overnight sell orders in at a higher price than when I sold, but seeing UCO was seriously up pre-market, I cancelled the orders pre-market. This was not an example of good trading habits IMHO! At least I made money and resolved to do what has always worked. Discipline!

6 weeks ago, the Fast Money Host (Mr. Slick) name?, gave a "don't go there" glance to the trader who usually sits on his right. This was done when a Goldman downgrade was announced and the trader yelled out, "there's my buy signal!" and grinned real big. The host met his eyes, grinned back and changed the direction of the conversation....it was very telling after reading Bill Cara for a few months...

liking the ugly action...

While many do not understand these issues - I see momentum changing...more people are asking questions, looking at alternative sources for news/information.

Just having that conversation with average Joe, increases his awareness. Had lunch yesterday with 4 others, two of them were all over this subject, and the other two received an education.

put order to buy FAS at 8.50
TNA at 23.50

gotta fight and avoid 800.

Regarding the Merrill bonuses, etc. Why is everyone focusing on the senior managment guys? I don't have a problem with the bonuses if they were approved by the BOD (maybe the compensation committee). Isn't it the BOD that should be held accountable? They are the ones in this whole mess that either approved what management was doing or sat on their hands. Thus far they have escaped any scrutiny or liability. In my experience they hide behind D&O insurance when anything goes wrong. We need to restrict coverage on these policies so these guys can't just walk away with no financial liability.

Inventories are added to GDP figures as "growth" which tempered the latest GDP statistic.

"Inventories increased by $6.2 billion in the fourth quarter, after going down $29.6 billion in the third quarter and $50.6 billion in the second quarter. The climb added 1.32 percentage points to GDP. Real final sales of domestic product, which is GDP less the change in private inventories, decreased 5.1% in the fourth quarter, after falling by 1.3% in the third quarter.

"Obviously, with final demand declining at a 5.1% annualized rate, an increase in inventories is hardly good news for future economic conditions," MFR Inc. analyst Joshua Shapiro said. "It signals that businesses were unable to reduce inventories to desired levels as demand evaporated. This means that orders and production will sink even more as inventory control and final demand both weigh on activity." WSJ

Thanks for the heads up, Mokat

Since refiners may get hit with strike so, oil may go down
And vlo/tso/sun may benefit and go up, price move in refiners look like that?

With gold soaring over $926/oz and GLD up 2%, why is GDX in the red? Some of the juniors are soaring (UXG and ANV), but AUY, GG, & KGC are flat to negative. I thought miners usually provided more leverage than just the price move of the metal. What am I missing? FD: ANV

but prices are usually set for a reason. (walking away from pc to heat up lunch)

I sold my ABX last week, my WGW yesterday and my GG today. I blogged earlier about the upcoming Cash 4 Gold ads going to be on the Stupidbowl. I'm applying a little reverse psychology in that the ads are going to get the crowd to buy gold as opposed to the crowd selling their gold. We know what usually happens then. HB&B ends up with the spoils. I'm taking my profits for now. I am holding on to my SLW. I'm trying to find out who might be the major laptop maker ZPower is going to put their silver/zinc battery in.

Just my opinion.

Today sold Jan 2010 GG 35 Calls for $5.90.
Previously sold Jan 2010 GG 22.5 Puts for $5.40
Holding GG at cost basis of $24.
If GG stays >= 22.50 and <= 35, ROI is 47% (11.30/24) and I keep GG.
If GG goes above $35, ROI is 92% (22.30/24), and I lose my GG.

I think the odds are good that GG will trade higher than $22.50 in Jan 2010.

Just an observation, the TSX venture exchange has been holding up well the past couple days vs the broader exchanges. I seem to remember Bill likes to see the venture exchange up as an indicator of appetite for risk. Not sure there's been enough volume to get excited about...

Micron (MU) was the top S&P500 performer in Jan, Fifth Third (FITB) the worst (fifth third? what a name).

Holding SNDK 10-13 for Monday.

long 26.09, max pain 35,45

Do your own homework.

It looks like it's just lying there stunned since about 1:30pm

Si02 Is that 10 on the call and 13 puts?

DZZ above 900 ounce

DGP below 900 ounce

A wise choice. But I do recommend being a paper trader right now and just see where those securities are come Monday and scribble a note as to why we would have bought them. Free painless risk free learning!

8000 penetrated.

Paper less for weekend

GG 29.32
ABX 37.22
GFI 10.48

DZZ 22.10
DGP 20.42

CVX 70.34

SNDK 12.03

TBT 47.67

see you monday

we'll see monday

Placed a buy@8.02, it's presently trading @8.82, low today 8.75

A 2 minute window at that price 2nd.

You're on the ball...

You may think I'm negative —

Well OK, yeah, but until we see that first attack on Thain's house I still just say I'm a realist.

Took a chance & bought 100 FAS@9.04, kept my limit order@8.02

i'm buying.

UCO is the double ultra long for ^DJAIGCL, Dow Jones-AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index. If you plot both price charts in Google finance over the range December 23 to January 29, you'll see that ^DJAIGCL is down 3.35%, while UCO is down 13.19%. This is the ultra ETF value erosion at work, combined with the contango erosion. Over the same range, SCO is down 15.18%, despite ^DJAIGCL being down 3.35%!. If ^DJAIGCL rises 3.35% exactly to its closing level on December 22, then UCO will probably be down 5% over this time range, while SCO will be down 25%!!! This once again demonstrates the point I have been making that ultra-short ETFs lose much more because of the value erosion than ultra-long ETFs.

Another interesting observation that can be made from these charts is that ^DJAIGCL is not perfectly correlated with the WTI spot price. Even though WTI spot price is 30% above its lows on December 23 (when it closed at $30.28) according to http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcd.htm, ^DJAIGCL is up only about 9%. So the oil contango is disappearing by way of the spot price moving up relative to the futures price, which move up much smaller. Therefore, we should not be very upset with UCO not being up as much as the oil spot price. The biggest problem with UCO, I think, is the ultra-ETF value erosion. However, even one trade per month with a gain of 10% (which is easy in UCO -- I just did it between yesterday and today using the limit orders) compensates for this value erosion.

long again at 2.46

brought some at 2.40

BUT NO BOUNCE REALLY TO SPEAK OFF....GOLD IS LOOKING QUIT BULLISH HERE.

The following are stocks I am watching.
Longs: PM, COF, CPO, MEOH
Short: STEM

www.finviz.com - simplistic take on the market....use screener and exclude ETF's. Use RSI(14) greater than 70 for overbought, less than 30 for oversold.
12 pages of oversold and 9 pages of overbought.... looking for longs.
It is updated during the day....

Purchased SRDX today.

Real money...holding SAY with $1.07 as basis, MSCC with $8.32 as basis.
WMT and CL as core holding.....WMT is getting oversold in its own right!

I will try to match up trades using www.tickerspy.com. I think it only uses end of day pricing so it is more challenging.

http://tinyurl.com/dc58pp / Portfolio figures.

What I look for to buy....see post on 1/26/09.

Has been a delight for 2 days. I don't own any at the moment and haven't noticed much mention of it here.

The other way around bg, calls always higher.

That's what I thought. Was confused by 10 being first. I was having trouble conceptualizing how one makes money the other way (however I have managed to lose every other way possible I think>)). Thanks

Someone asked me the other day if I bought into the Obama "change" herd mentality. I replied that I do indeed buy into it. I said that I dont particularly believe Obama to be an extraordinary individual, so much as an ordinary guy in extraordinary circumstances. People around the world are fed up with the rule-makers and their relentless game-playing. They are sick and tired of being abused and they are demanding that their opinions be heard. (A little known secret; the masses have the power, they always have had it, and they always will have it... whether or not they choose to exercise it... and this fact scares the he!! out of those who profess control)

The topics discussed today on this blog could not see the light of day in the recent past... Bill's life-long committment to the pursuit of truth not withstanding, these topics were not in-vogue with the masses. Those of us who were unsettled over the absurdidties of toothless financial regulations and the inequities of NAFTA were actively disparaged by our peers. Now, thank goodness, the masses are beginning to consider those (like Bill) who are on the record as being prescient and courageous enough to "call a spade a spade" during the heyday of excess.

I believe change will occur this time... Not because of Obama, but because the people that Obama represents are ready and eager for change (namely us)... and extraordinary or not, Obama is in the position to effect our will. Furthermore, I am comforted in knowing that now that real change is suddenly viable, there are those with the expertise (like Bill) willing and ready to avail themselves so that these efforts manifest in a purposeful and effective manner. I can tolerate the current and anticipated growing pains... because, now, I truly believe that "we" are finally "growing" once again.

And now for something completely different....
Aside from being absolutely one of the most brilliant things I have ever come across, I found the following video strangely comforting in the midst of my chaotic life. I attach it with hopes that it may have similar effects in your own lives.

http://tinyurl.com/3d9yg5

...Life is grand and, yes, perhaps I am easily amazed.

Have a terrific weekend everyone.
Sincerely.

Jonny, there is value erosion in ALL ultra ETFs, but the extent of this erosion is much bigger in ultra-shorts than in ultra-longs.

USD is the double ultra of ^DJUSSC. ^DJUSSC closed today at almost the same level as on November 12. USD is 10% lower now than on November 12. So its value erosion is similar to that of UCO -- about 5% per month. So you need to trade it occasionally so as to compensate for the value erosion.

I am planning to get out of USD, UYG and QLD if we have a rally in the next couple of months. I don't believe we are in the next leg down now that will break November 20 lows. We should have a rally before the next leg down.

"Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism" Karl Marx, Das Kapital, 1867.

It's funny,

I was just in my fave Italian joint picking up a couple lasagna and the owners were chatting me up as our friends across the pond say. Turns out they, and like, millions of other small business owners are living in mortal, paralyzing fear of creeping socialism, particularly, the concept of contributing to either a living wage on the low end, or even worse still, the concept of providing or helping to provide health care benefits to all employees. This idea scares small business out of their shorts.

One of the miracles of Capitalism is its "franchisability" the expanding and contracting nature of the system in which the exploitation replicates and grows, as "little dictators" sit in corner offices across the fruited plain supervising the wage slaves. But hey. It's the best system in the world.

Have a great Superbowl guys! Go Cardinals!

Thank you David, your observations and advise are a big help. I will sell USD on the next rally. On 12/8, I sold out of everything except for USD and took my losses. Since then I have done quite well trading and am gradually covering those losses. I certainly don't need a -5% monthly drag from USD.

If you are ever in the Baltimore/York/Harrisburg/Wilmington area drop me a line.

"If you are ever in the Baltimore/York/Harrisburg/Wilmington area drop me a line."

Thanks, Johnny. I have two little children in the SF Bay Area, so traveling in the near future is a bit difficult for my family. But I'll keep it in mind...

Many are most likely aware of these matters, but I posted this link for those who have not seen the news http://tinyurl.com/ctqjug

Milesquare,

good catch. I am probably one of not many here who read that thing. Well, surfed through as much as possible in order to pass the exam. Not that I remember all 4 volumes word in word (grin), but I am familiar with Marx's theory enough to see that the quote has nothing to do with his views. It makes rounds on internet for a while and I wondered whether someone would just search the text for that quote. Good to see someone did.

It could be two motorcycles.....life is a cartoon.

Johnny, this is off topic, but do you think Barclays will survive?

4ever, as much as I would like to provide an opinion, I don't really follow the individual fortunes banks and financial services. It's better that I admit ignorance rather than mislead anyone.

Of course that hasn't stopped me from trading the financial ETFs.

The world could use more of this igold. I'm a yank living in Southern Pennsylvania, so I can't help with the Canadian petition. But, we do have a claim-to-fame in the good 'ol USSA. By sheer quantity we have more sleazy banking/financial execs than you have in Canada. Instead of a petition, I prefer firing squads and long prison terms. But our politicians just give these theives more money. And while many of us are out of work, the execs have nice cushy jobs, give themselves bonus', buy corporate jets and other companies, then come back to our politicians/federal reserve and treasury for more money. Of course it's not real money, because the USSA is bankrupt!

First Geithner and now Daschle. Its funny how the Democrats do things, they pay back taxes as a sort of entry fee for their positions.

Compare that to Paulson, who had his tax bill reduced by several hundred million in order to get him to take the job at the Treasury... now that's doing it right!

Since the 11/20/08 market bottom, Silver stocks are up 136%, and gold stocks are up 78% - first and fifth position among the 239 Morningstar sub-industry groups.

The broad market, S&P-500, is up just 10% from the bottom.

The 4 worst performing groups are regional bank groups, down between 14% and 20% since 11/20.

Texas gave us Ron Paul and now fortunately Congressman John Carter http://tinyurl.com/ch7wck

Please keep posting I really enjoy reading your posts. I find them informative and entertaining. I really miss your contributions here. You are on the top of my list. I hope you reconsider. Please, Yaba

Chickenpookie
Please keep posting. Your posts are useful.
I going to be honest and say what I have in my mind which is there are some post by important poster which has not help or guide me to make any trade. Bu I will not mention it, they are consider important.

jock,

"He scratched his head as to why Geithner (and Biden!) would rattle their sabres against China as a "currency manipulator"...

Try this on —

China is in a bind. They own too much of our debt to easily get out.

They are already shifting toward spending more domestically. We'll soon need to be buying (only talking so far) our own bonds to hold down rates.

While U.S. maintained a "Free Enterprise" stance as our jobs were exported to China, we are now hearing about the result of over a decade of the real cost of the "cheaper consumer products" we buy there.

I see a political call for tariffs in the making. Whether the Chinese are in on this bit of drama from on high or not is an open question. The American public need to "know" our pain is being felt in Congress. C-SPAN will run it live with the usual cast.

The folly is endless.

http://tinyurl.com/cpndcf
Mr. T. Geithner, (the new Treasury Secretary) just passed along a criticism of China "Timothy said on Jan. 22 that President Barack Obama believes China is “manipulating its currency" (Who knew?). Don't all sovereign nations manipulate their currencies? Answer: YES! (Don't tell Joe the plumber. We need to keep him/them/us ignorant!)

With undisguised mendacity, the US Vice President Joe Biden said [..the U.S. hasn’t decided if it will formally label China a manipulator], which would trigger negotiations aimed at ending the unfair advantage. – I choked on this.

China is holding a “biggie-sized portion” of US debt. It would be nice if China bought more US stuff, whatever stuff that might be, given the headlong rush of our business "leaders" for decades, to ship entire factories and manufacturing jobs to China and elsewhere. All while the enablers, the US aristocratic politicians watched on approvingly, knowing the proletariat had no say! It would also be nice if China manipulated their currency higher than the US dollar, to give their citizens incentive to buy the cheaper US goods. (Of course one must overlook the closing Chinese factories and long lines of Chinese citizens returning to their former rural villages.) But wait, Obama and Joe are criticizing China for currency manipulation. Goll-eee uncle Bob, what does it all mean?

To me it means the capitalist US is BEGGING a communist totalitarian state to "fall in line", and help bail the USSA and the entire western anti-communist world out of its national malaise. A financial abyss of epic proportions; a credit hangover of our own making, perpetrated by our own esteemed financial services aristocracy, using the best "ponzie scheme" techniques that our "finest" business schools (Wharton, Harvard, Yale) could manufacture and their most clever MBA Scholars could devise, all enabled by decades of taxpayer financed congressional under sight by the political aristocracy, deregulation in return for campaign contributions. An ever so cozy revolving door of government appointees, lobbyists, banking & business apparatchiks.

Manipulation indeed!
"It all works until it doesn't" ...Thanks Kaimu

Craig,

I am firmly in your camp.

I hadn't paid a great deal of attention to the row Grym, but you've got me thinking.

Politicians know from history what 'beggar thy neighbour' economic relations does - usually creates intense disagreement, including war. But it cannot be rationalized that they are aware/mindful/avoiding this trap - going the easy electorally populist route - as they fight there way through another economic crisis.

But I listened to Dr George Freedman from Stratfor.com podcast rationalize the continued dominance of the United States in the 21 st Century - once it recovers from this crisis - due to the destructive and creative nature of the capitalism practiced over there (unlike Europe and Japan which for various reasons prop up various dinosaur industries).

You just made me wonder. Would the administration hide behind a protectionist policy by accusing its leading partner of defaulting on agreed practice (as you've suggested) so that it could withdraw from that partnership with the least loss of face in order to rebuild the American economy - and I'm thinking primarily of manufacturing.

Combine that withdrawal from default partnership with a new round of regulation governing environmental standards, welfare, labor, justice and law (well maybe not the latter - the US is the incarceration capital of the world of course)so that US companies are influenced by policy (read coerced) into returning their manufacturing bases to the US mainland. The US does have a very low minimum wage so if they kept the unions out (which is what the big three dream of or are trying isn't it?) could a return to manufacturing be viable. It seems to me that a service economy is a bit of a crock as we see in the US and needs to be supplemented with some/ or more manufacturing than is presently the case.

The political elite and the people know that liberalization is a crock. It has been thoroughly abused to grow bottom lines and even then the profits were inflated. It strikes me as appropriate logic if Mama should coerce her children to come home and do what's appropriate to help recover the household budget.

It's wild conjecture and I hope it is wrong. But if this is the opening salvo in a new, protectionist economic climate then things could get ugly. 60'000 factories closed already in China. Millions out of work. You know what happens when social unrest occurs. Government's play the nationalist card. In China's case, that's bashing the Japanese. With the US still offering guarantees for Japans defence... ahh don't want to think about it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGHgzlJMNL0

Here's one person in the senate that speaks her mind and for the taxpayers.

Craig, Vadyn Graifer,

Telling what one has experienced, however gloomy, does not mean we can't profit by the situation. On the contrary. Isn't it better to recognize reality and deal with it? TARP, Bad Bank and massive monetization are all attempts to solve a problem by hiding its causes and protect the creators.

Just because you may not been personally touched by this "cancer" doesn't mean ignoring it will protect you.

LOL! WHO *isn't* touched by a world-wide recession/depression, deflation and subsequent reflation?

No one suggested ignoring anything. What I am suggesting is that what everyone already knows has no value. We already have heard all the sob, end of the world stories. There will surely be more.

Touched? My daughter signed a year lease with her BOSS (one of three partners in a Veterinary Emergency referral Clinic) on December 31st and business got so bad three vets, a few techs and assistants, including my daughter, were laid off on January 10th. My brother is in the movie biz. No financing for movies these days. By some lucky (?) twist of fate he fell and fractured his leg so is on disability....for now.

No, we are all touched.

Tell us something we don't know.

I'll tell ya, my daughter got a BETTER job. Chin up is what I told her too.
Two weeks ago the world ended. Yesterday she called telling us of her new career. Bill would cite Ecclesiastes. That works for me.

There is a time for dragging down and a time to lift up.

As always, I enjoy the CTAB discussion notes; thank you for sharing these insights.

Especially enjoyed the link to the Presidential Inauguration photograph.
Missed all the media events that day as I was sleeping due to night shifts. This is the best photo I've seen thus far. The zoom feature is fun.

Challenge to the Community: pan and zoom to find people you recognize!
Besides the Supremes, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the political elite, Ben Bernanke is present. Wonder what he's thinking in the bitter cold?

Have a great weekend, everyone.

good word.....

Gross often sounds like a whiner...."print more, print more, print more...."

Anyone besides me buy UPS near the close Friday when RSI7d briefly dipped below 10? The stock went down sharply the last two sessions and was down 23% in January. The RSI tool is showing accumulation zone but the price it is using is Thursdays close not Fridays.

UPS *
44.84 19.19 27.94 26.7 Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)

Fridays close was $42.49 and I bought near the daily low of $42.24 while watching a real time, intraday RSI7d readout on a ScottradeELITE chart.

Thank you for fixing the RSI tool.I can read it again in Safari.Thats great! Bob.

Craig,

You go right ahead and be positive if it makes you feel better. Keep on telling people to knock off the doom and gloom talk. Talk up the silver lining.

Follow the lead of the famous Alfred E. Newman, who's known for the attitude, "What me worry?"

The above is exactly why no one stopped any of this from happening. TheAFL/CIO told me ten years ago, "We'll mind our business — you mind yours."

So, how much clout do the unions have today? If the people had their attitude a century ago we'd still be working 14 hour days.

Two years ago Irwin Stelzer of The Weekly Standard replied to my email with, "You are too gloomy; remember that a great nation can tolerate a lot of ruin."

Well, Irwin, are we there yet?

Bill believes people will rebel and force changes, but if we all adopt your approach the outrage will continue to be suppressed and there will be organized demands — only a collective sign.

I say, talk it up to everyone you know. Cause a little blood to boil. The passive accomplish nothing. The pissed off may.

Vadym Graifer, on a trading day I would not likely be posting all this kind of thing, but on a weekend I feel people may be more apt to spend time considering the overall picture.

I'm all for making the best of the bad situation as far as trading or investing goes, but I can't stand the stupidity and insulting "solutions" being foisted on us by government and media hacks. Enough already! Let's do something.

I'll get down off my soapbox for now. I hope I didn't offend anyone — unless they are with the Treasury Dept., The SEC, The Congress or a bonus-laden CEO :-)

http://tinyurl.com/afjpzd

Great article showing the mood of Wall St employees. Poor souls have no clue their business model is out of business already.

I feel bad for the city of new york and the majority of the citizens of the boroughs. as i think the recession will be a prolonged one in NYC. Crime will prob go up, city services will be cut, education will be cut, housing that has held ground will ultimately plummet.

Without Wall St and finance jobs, New Yorkers cannot afford $1M 1 bedrooms and bmw 7 series. Unless we all go play for the Yankees.

EDIT: in keeping with optimism, I am liking gold more and more as i keep staring at the chart. even if the stoch is in the overbought range. And CTAB Bahamas is only 2 months away :)

OHH, thats a nasty wart on the nose! :)
jk.

I think Shark and Vadym played this in recent weeks; I also noticed the extreme price movements (up and down) and went back and charted it. So one thing I saw was a double-bottom around 3+ back in late Nov/early Dec with low volume. Then suddenly Dec 7, 8, 9 and 10 volume tripled to near 80 million, then 60 million or so(where previous vol was less than 20 mill).

OK, stock moves up, quickly from low 3, breaks 10, pulls back, hits maybe 13+ and consolidates around 10 finally peaks over 15 - during all this the stock appears to be in distribution. Then it looks to be in accumulation and now a sharp sell-off.

So - would formation of another double-bottom be good enough to go long?
Or is this too simple?
(apologies to the TA eggheads, I know I suck at this).

FYI, we had some problems pulling down the charts for the daily report. I'll try to fix it for the WIR tomorrow!

Thanks Swiss, an impressive speech by Senator Claire McCaskill. I have read that when faced with a life changing event, humans experience a range of emotions known as SARA (#1-Shock, #2-Anger, #3-Rejection, #4-Acceptance), myself and some others are at #2. When we get to #4, then we can begin to fully express our individual efforts to make things better. For those on this blog who are already at #4. Congratulations, I am happy for you. You are most fortunate.

Until that time I hope patience will prevail.

Peasant lane mall Nashua N.H where we shop has cut back hours. Now open M-F from 10 to 8.30 instead of 9 to 10 and on Sunday from 12 to 6 instead of 9 to 9.
THERE are roughly 1,500 malls in the United States, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, many of them ailing, some of them being converted into office buildings, and others closing their doors for good.
May be we should ban AMZN?

I keep reminding myself about when Bill said Gold would be the last one off the dance floor. In reality it was in the 700's for a brief period. In relation to other commodities that does not compare. There sure has been a lot of hype of gold going up. Is it still dancing and soon to get off the floor?

Mr. Cara,

I am a short-term trader who would be decimated by a transaction tax that seems to be gaining traction in the US government. If you are familiar with this tax proposal, can you comment on what might be done? For example, would it be possible to (a) trade in a country and/or (b) on a exchange that does not exact this tax?

My guess is that as long as I remain a US citizen, I would have no legal recourse in avoiding this tax but perhaps you know differently.

Thanks...

Obama is right, the government needs to set the example. And here is the example he has set so far - don't pay your taxes until you are caught. After being caught all you have to say is "oops, my bad" and you're set.

And believe me, more people will be tempted in the tough times ahead.

http://tinyurl.com/b4qvxs

Craig, vad et al. I, like Grym, find it very hard to stay positive in the face of the negative tsunami of dismal sentiment each and every day. But, after I have had my moment in the "no-where but down" camp, I realize the incredible opportunity being presented. Craig pointed out but a few of the excellent stock ideas from Bill and the group. I am firmly in the optimist/learning to profit from adversity camp simply because as Craig noted, 'What I am suggesting is that what everyone already knows has no value. We already have heard all the sob, end of the world stories. There will surely be more.' To whit, let's make some profitable trades!

Video follow up.
http://tinyurl.com/bobpys

Rosy glasses point of view: I guess i can pick up a used bmw m5 v10, with NY or CT plates, for dirt cheap fairly soon.

http://tinyurl.com/bfqzp5

In all doom and gloom there are still oppurtunities. A bud of mine works there and will have the house and the merc paid off.

kismet.....

Vadym, thanks for reply.

Another issue that has seen a big run-up in the past month on average volume -Sepracor (SEPR). (don't see much mention of it here, its a pharmaceutical).

Strong volume increase on 29th January (12.5 million vs. average 2.5 million)
and doji on 30th - does this seem to indicate a strong reversal is in the cards?

I'm also trying to learn hot to spot the "footprints" - in particular, how does one spot heavy selling (such as hedge funds) into rallies; or heavy buying on dips; this is really hard for me to pick out.

Went to pick up a pre-prepared dinner for the daughter's dance pre-gathering at the house last evening at Olive Garden (decent pricing for mob of 16 high school seniors). The place was wall to wall at 5 pm. It's onto the watch list, and will watch for a while to get the pulse. Happy Trading

This is a subject I know a heck of a lot about.

As far as Wall Street's effect on the NYC economy, as a guy who slugged it out for a few years living on the upper east side in a stabilized apt (under a grand a month) working a naff inside sales job that put me firmly in the middle class, I have to say Wall street's effect on the economy WAS IN MANY WAYS EXTREMELY DELETERIOUS. Oh sure, the tax revenue was huge, the cops were everywhere looking for people smoking pot, and the tourists poured in from every hick town across the fruited plain, but the city became in truth a playground for the rich. Really. By late 2000 you couldn't get an apartment for less than 2500 a month. You couldn't get a good dinner reservation 'cept for a month in advance, maybe. You couldn't get out to the Hamptons in the summer even if you'd wanted to, for all the latter-day Gatsby's who infested the area each season.

Women (the best looking ones from all across America move to NYC and try to meet guys) wouldn't date you unless you were either an underwear model or making at least half a mil a year, and were willing to bestow a good deal of it upon them. At the same time, the culture, the musicians, the punks, the dopers, the artist, the guys who weld old scrap metal together and sell it for thousands all moved away, leaving nothing but yuppies as far as the eye could see. All of a sudden to rent an apartment it wasn't enough that you had a job and a pulse, at the height of it you needed blue chip credit, a job making half a mil and sometimes you had to pay in advance anyway. The buskers largely disappeared, as did the neo-folk singers and the dope-slingers all across the lower east and west sides.

In short, the city became nice at first, then it became expensive, and finally it became boring. I for one look forward again to the day when cops shoot it out with, not unarmed black guys in their own buildings but with people who stand an even chance. I look forward to the day when squatters once again re-inhabit the slums downtown like rats after the apocolypse. The thing about NYC was, around 1980-1992 say, was you'd walk down a street and it was SCARY. And that was cool.

goldbug58
SEPR
It is because of LUNESTA a new sleep medication. Last year doctor gave me prescription but blue cross blue shield will not cover it, they gave me three generic name that doctor can prescribe instead of LUNESTA. LUNESTA cost $8/tablet.
Got sample from doctor and it gives you very freshness in morning, after fight with insurance company they agree to give me 15tablet/month. I do not take them anymore it was temporary issue. But because of cost insurance want people to take generic but government plan does cover it. Someone needs to do more search, how long lunesta profit can last and how long they can keep price high.
Their revenue is from LUNESTA and XOPENEX and waiting for approval for—
Arformoterol tartrate inhalation solution remains under review at the FDA. The NDA for arformoterol tartrate was submitted to the FDA in December 2005 and was accepted for filing by the FDA in February 2006. Arformoterol tartrate is a long-acting beta-agonist formulation, submitted for approval for long-term maintenance treatment of disease chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Stock was on my watch list for IRA account but couldn’t make up my mid

Thank you Vinod. According to VL, the patents on Xopenex and Lunesta expire in 2012 and 2014. And there is pressure from competitor Sanofi-Aventis. New drugs in the pipeline include Omnaris (for allergic rhinitis) and Alvesco (asthma) and there is one other, Brovana, which launched 2 years ago. But these respiratory drugs are very competitive, and the VL analyst on this issue is not particularly bullish on it (and I'm not a doctor, either, so I have no clue).

The stock's had a nice one-month runup from about $10 to $17 - I was more interested in the activity last Thurs and Fri when it moved lower (and especially the volume spike Thursday). Thought about buying short-term puts on it if the view from here looks to be down. I'm looking for confirmation of that, I guess...

[Note: For those who are tired of hearing my comments, let me remind you of the "ignore feature" on this site.]
---------------------

"A lot of Internet communication and disagreements eventually come to difference in perception of the same thing."

Vadym is right, communication is best when kept simple. Getting a client to identify their single most important goal when designing an ad was always difficult for me. It is much easier for us to speak in broad, sweeping terms.

I am very skeptical of Obama's message and his ability to bring genuine, meaningful change. I was disappointed by his lack of decisiveness after voting for him here in Illinois, but will give him the benefit of the doubt now that he has White House clout.

His use of the internet and other campaign tactics were as masterful. The internet may just be what is needed to get a grassroots push behind real change. I hope Bill is right and fully intend to lend my support to each and every group pushing for such change.

I know some of my friends grew tired of me complaining about what I saw happening. While they were not affected they were sure I was a nut. This past year many of them lost nearly half their retirement savings. Now they are feeling what I've felt from the early 1990s on. When your main income is from your savings and there is no steady paycheck to rely on, the message comes in loud and clear — we are in trouble. (To any baby boomers and younger: If you still have a job and lost little in the market, just a so you know — Social Security is NOT ENOUGH — and yours will be even less than mine.)

But I want not only financial reform... I want:
• Congressional reform (term limits and no better benefits than we have)
• Tax reform (corporate taxes are just passed on to all of us),
• Health care reform (the biggest detriment is insurance the companies)
• A more balanced wage/salary system for management and workers.

The current CEO to employee ratio is as high as a 500:1 and is creating a two class system in this country. Our large middle class is what made us great and needs maintenance and restoration.

I don't mean pay limits, just a fair rebalancing. Why should someone whose receiving a six or seven figure income need more "incentive"? Pay tied to actual performance with bonuses and profit sharing to all seems a possible answer. Bonuses should only be for outstanding performance and in line with the value delivered.

I want a clear, detailed and rational plan from Congress — sans pork. Obama is still in a position to demand this if he is serious. I'm willing to back him all the way or kick him in out if he doesn't perform as promised.

I urge you to go on the offense anywhere you may find a place your voice can help support the Change Message which elected our 44th President.

Craig
take a look at
Enter Symbol:PALM
Palm Inc. $ 7.67
Short Interest (Shares Short) 42,238,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 2.3
Short Percent of Float 45.52 %
Short Interest - Prior 35,038,100
Short % Increase 20.55
Last week every time it went over 8.00 short jump in.
Don’t know, wait for short to go up more or we will have short squeeze soon?
reason I took look at PALM is it was mention here last week

Thursday, I met with Platinum Group Metals (AMEX:PLG;TSX:PTM) a junior with a bankable feasibility study for a near-surface 6.5M oz. M&I deposit in South Africa, in which they hold a 74% interest. NPV at 5% was pegged just shy of $1B. Current market cap is $100M. But, what was the appeal of a precious metal whose price has recently fallen 60%, while gold has fallen just 10%? Platinum’s price is below its 2004 low (while gold has more than doubled since then).

Historically, platinum has been priced over 1.5 times gold. Just months ago, platinum was 2.3 times gold. Now, platinum is near par with gold. Should platinum revert to the mean, its gain could be massive. Also, platinum group metals don’t get much play in North America. We have no viable deposits. (In Canada's Sudbury Basin platinum is just a low-grade by-product of nickel).Both well-known North American producers of platinum’s “first cousin” palladium (SWC and PAL) operate high-cost mines, and are in trouble. PAL has already shut down its mine. 70% of global production is from one area of S.Africa, whose mining sector has been plagued by energy shortages. Is there opportunity in platinum’s fall, and in its relative lack of visibility to North American investors?

Amazingly, PLG is the only pure-platinum mining stock listed in the US. The only other pure platinum plays are 2 UBS exchange-traded notes PTM and PTD (long and short) covering the metal itself, and which trade much less volume than PLG. Should US investors become interested in platinum, PLG is positioned to benefit. (Eastern Platinum, a producer with $250M market cap, trades much larger volume than PLG in Canada).

In 2008, platinum rose and fell with the fortunes of the global auto industry, which buys 55% of production for catalytic converters. Per PGM, there are but 15 platinum producers, 4 of them majors. Most of the majors’ mines are very deep, and very high-cost. Only 8 of 26 mines on PGM’s list are estimated to be profitable at today’s price (US$966/oz.). 6 of them are already in care and maintenance.

This year, PLG maintains, demand and supply will both drop from near 6.5M oz to 5M oz., and expects supply constraints will soon drive prices up. Longer term, PLG notes that sales of cars in the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has just surpassed the US, and has decades of rapid growth in store.

PLG suggests that senior producers looking for profitable production may well acquire their project. They are in discussion with 3 seniors. PLG claims a near-surface, high-grade, low-chrome deposit with superior economics: all-in costs of US$566/oz, compared with its estimate of producing mines’ cost of $1000. PLG claims an acquirer could bring their deposit into production within 2 years.

On BNN, RBC analyst Leon Esterhuizen recently stated that half the industry is losing money (from sub-1000 meter mines) and mentioned 4 other emerging producers with low-cost, near-surface deposits attractive to the seniors. PLG maintains that none matches their economics. PLG also states that, failing an early bid from a senior, their institutional holders will fund the company, as they did last October. Units of JP Morgan hold 16.5%, Geologic Partners 13%; in all, institutions hold 60% of outstanding shares. Last October’s private placement, for $7.4M was funded by these holders at $1.55/sh, with no warrants) The company has $2.5M in current liabilities (mostly surface rights), and claims a burn rate of just $200K/mo. (Management holds 6%).

This is the company’s story, ably told by one IR and one Corporate Dev’t rep, who have been on the road for several months. The company is making a commitment to developing North American investor interest which few juniors make. I have done no due significant due diligence at this point, but believe PLG is enough of an eye-opener to share their story with the wider audience.

PLG has a short-term catalyst (need of senior producers for profitable production) and a long-term catalyst (rebound of the auto industry, especially in the BRIC countries).

Also, if economics of the deposit prove out, and financing returns to the market, PLG could become a profitable stand-alone producer, even at continued low platinum prices. If it comes down to a wait, PLG seems to have the cash to handle the short term, and the institutional backing for the long-term.

Disclosure: no postion; PLG paid for our breakfast meeting.

Not a recommendation; meant for education only; DYODD

Further sources:
BNN interview with RBC analyst Esterhuizen http://tinyurl.com/aksesx
BNN interview with PLG CEO: http://tinyurl.com/cl32zc
Corporate presentation: http://preview.tinyurl.com/bwju26

gld,dbs,DGL,BVN dzz, all positions are small, if and when gold starts to correct, sell the gold and keep the dzz, after bottoming of gold, sell the dzz and double down on gold. This is not a reccommendation but a tactic. I feel eventually these crooked policticans will end up devaluating the currency. I don't think the politicans really know what they are doing. Why gamble alot until clearer direction. 25% in market, I will hedge everything until I get some better signals. The government is just too manipulative right now. Thank you Bill for the lesson in risk control!

"The folly is endless."

I agree, I think all the chants of "lack of experience" are coming "home to roost" to borrow a phrase, and we are experiencing Obama administration amateur hour.

The pork laden stimulus plan, China comments, and appointment of tax cheats to key Senate (Wrangle) and Administration posts has given me little hope that they will contribute meaningfully to solving our ethical and economic difficulties.

Not sure if i can wait for CTAB Bahamas to raise my hand to ask this question.

i think i now have a novice grip on using rsi, stochastics, macd, & volume, to time the big moves and sentiment/momentum.

But what combination of indicators and or time series are favored for when rsi, stoch are not oversold or overbought?

Would it be prudent to add rsi-2 into the mix? thanks in advance.

ie charts of gld and gg
http://tinyurl.com/d95p97
http://tinyurl.com/b2dvbx

http://tinyurl.com/c4f4ej
If we want to bet on a sector, renewable energy RE is it IMHO.
Above is the ASES 1/15/2009 press release headline "ASES Green Collar Jobs report forecasts 37 million jobs from renewable energy and energy efficiency in U.S. by 2030"

RE has been swimming upstream ever since President Reagan (whom I respect, but nobody is perfect) slammed the door closed and opened his arms to fossil fuels and still RE made progress. With president Obama, I expect RE to be the next great bubble (I shudder at that word.)! To include manufacturing, construction, transportation, energy, agriculture, in essence a makeover for the entire USA.

http://news.mongabay.com/2009/0201-wind.html
A tipping point! This uplifting Feb 1, 2009 article mentions "...wind energy jobs increased 70 percent to 85,000 in 2008, 4,000 more workers than are employed in coaling mining (based of Department of Energy figures" tempered by the sobering prediction "Although President Obama has extended tax credits for the wind industry, growth is expected to slow this year due to the weakening economy and production delays."

I have followed RE since the 1973 oil embargo. The technologies have made substantial improvements. Remarkable scientific breakthroughs are announced almost daily. Obama could do far worse than dramatically increase funding in all areas of RE. Like any change to existing structures, retrofitting RE into existing homes is more difficult than with ground up design and construction. With the glut in housing, perhaps older and marginable homes should be destroyed and when a new home is required, it can be built from the ground up with modern RE technologies like radiant floor heating, thick SIP walls, and passive energy design. All of this requires a massive re-education effort in the design, engineering and construction trades. Just like precious water is gathered and distributed in the west. Sunlight and wind power can be harnessed and delivered to distant areas efficiently if we rebuild/renovate our electric transmission infrastructure. So what are we waiting for, January 20, 2009 is prologue!

Disclosure: I don’t own RE stocks or funds.
I plan to begin a portfolio of RE stocks to watch and accumulate over time.

tango,

I know you said you don't want to know anything about GERN, and "don't marry the stock" is my motto... but I thought I'd share what I know about the way it moves anyway - no to marry it by any means but to be prepared for when it starts moving again, and IMO at some point it will.

First thing to remember about this stock - it's a serial disappointer. At no point in its history it held the highs for any prolonged period of time. That said, at no point did it see the times when the administration of the moment was very friendly to stem cells research.

GERN made a sizeable move in late 90s when it came out with its "fountain of youth" hype. It was market prone to double and triple small stocks in a matter of days if not hours, and GERN did just that. I remember the day it announced its shining perspectives a few minutes before market close, and I scalped 3/8 (fraction times) on a few thousand shares, only to see it gapping couple bucks in the morning and running further. Hype fizzled out of course, and over the years since then GERN did a few tries to move - good for a quick momo plays, never to hold.

At this point, the conditions are as favorable for it as they could ever be - stem cells research is likely to be looked upon much more favorably by the current administration, and GERN seems to aim for something more "feet on the ground" than fountain of youth. Still, it's just a first phase it got approved by FDA for, and if you observe it intraday, you can see the personality of this stock... very volatile, with gut-wrenching pullbacks. Will "this time be different"? I believe volume will give us a clue.

My verdict at this point would be: keep on radar, be aware of news in the field, maybe date it now and then, see if it becomes marriage material, be ready to divorce quickly. All usual technicals will start working on it only if and when real volume comes.

tango6 said:

"However, GERN looks snappy to me at under $8 ..."

In times past (and even more so in bull markets) GERN would have attracted my attention from the long side. Allow me to add a few words of caution, purely from a technical analysis standpoint.

There still remains some overhead supply from May '07 and December '06. Those who bought the stock back then and have held on through the decline may represent potential sellers between $8.50-$10.00. The emotional need to "break even" is one of many human faults that keeps us from profitable trading. But it still exists, so be aware of it.

I'd rather see the stock get north of $10 (to clear out that overhead) on further increases in volume to signal that there's more upside.

The huge volume blastoff on Jan. 23 is very impressive, but take note that the stock closed the day well off its highs of $8.38 (short term traders were booking profits).

Any break of $6.50 in price would signal that the intermediate bull trend is over, and could likely send short term traders to the sidelines in a hurry.

This is a day trading stock given the overall current market environment. Use tight stops and don't be upset if you get taken out of your position.

If I was to play this from the long side, I'd watch it to see if it pulls back maybe 2-3 more days on lower volume. This would signal that those who bought in are supporting the stock and sellers have diminished.

Just one person's opinion. Fade away ...

"But what combination of indicators and or time series are favored for when rsi, stoch are not oversold or overbought?"

People write whole books to cover this subject so expect many answers. To my mind it really depends on your strategy, ie are you trading trends, reversals or breakouts. There is no one perfect indicator for all these strategies however RSI is generally a good indicator for all strategies, not perfect for any one but good across all three. RSI can be useful in trends if used with moving averages. In trending markets I use a combination of RSI and a EMA cluster of 5,15,30. In a strong trend you will see prices drop back down to 15 or 30 EMA and RSI will retrace to around 50 then both will bounce back up so at that point you have a good entry or pyramid opportunity.

If you use many indicators then they can contradict each other and cause indecision or delays in confirmation, not good. IMO use price as your primary and a couple of indicators as your secondary or confirmations. Whatever you use it should be in harmony with your personality.... the hardest part of any system is knowing yourself. Good luck

I luv it!

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Not much comment from the group regarding this "provision" in the stimulus package. Seems to me this would be the fastest way to convert this recession into a depression. This is Obama's best chance to show the world that business as usual here is over. 2nd?
Casino was packed last night. Much more than usual for super bowl. I agree with Bill's feeling that Americans understand where we are and are ready to move forward.