Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Mar. 13, 2009

It's pretty dismal the way it plays out, isn't it. One or two "bad" people will be jailed in a show trial. The people are left to eke out their lives, knowing that wrongs have been righted and all is well.

Reminds me of my preferred japanese animation. Ghost in the Shell. Same script.

I wonder how Americans will tell themselves of the wrong committed here, or perhaps revisionism will saintify the robber barons of today, as those of the past are now praised.

Good morning.

PAYX - Upgraded to Neutral @ UBS

Downgrades:

DNA - to Neutral @ JP Morgan
DNA - to Sell @ Argus
DNA - to Hold @ Citigroup
DNA - to Equal Weight @ Barclays
DNA - to Perform @ Oppenheimer

New Coverage:

MCD - Robert W. Baird Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $61

8 mill shares traded pre market so far.
1.85 up 10%.
Looks like the massive shorts are starting to cover.
3 days of green for markets, now another day of green is in the cards.
It's been a long time since the makets have seen 4 green days in a row.

Well worth watching. I believe Jon Stewart has found the voice of outrage that most people in America and the world feel about what has happened to them over the past year. People who have no active daily interest in the markets, but who have for years responsibly contributed to their 401Ks or other retirement account, who now must begin again from scratch, who have no faith or confidence left in the markets, and who rightfully feel cheated and betrayed by the very interests Jim Cramer represents.

Jon Stewart and Jim Cramer

It's a devastating critique of the system that people like Bill and Barry Ritholz and too few others have been warning against for years.

LOL, after CP knocking us over the head yesterday with this formula you'd think I'd have worked it out...

I didn't realise this formula - i.e., Financials, then Oil, the metals, then gold - happened withing days. I thought CP was talking about longer term cyclical issues.

An interesting counter intuitive argument from an accountant...

>"Banks are much healthier than they were reported to be

To figure out true earnings at a company, one must look at how much income taxes the company actually paid to the IRS. Large businesses were audited by the IRS once every three years, and company officials would go to jail if they defrauded the government; therefore, a company CEO or CFO have very little incentive to mess with the IRS. The best example would be Enron - even it reported lots of money to investors, but it reported no incomes to government. The same thing would be true for Indymac and Countrywide - they did not report income to the IRS, therefore, they paid almost no money to the government Last year, Citigroup reported 32 billion in losses to investors using GAAP. Take a guess how much it reported to the IRS? It reported $10 billion in profit and it PAID $3.5 billion to government. NO idiot would pay money to IRS if it didn’t have to.

Conclusion

If mark to market rules are modified or suspended today, I expect the US economy could grow above 8% in the 3rd quarter."

http://tinyurl.com/c72kjm

Bill, any grain of truth in this?

Thanks bull hunter. I was eying of HBC as a play today because it hasn't attracted bidding pre-market - although the analyst is taking a wait and see approach to HBC.

there are 4 parts. Intro and parts 1-3
http://www.thedailyshow.com/

Jim Cramer Interview Outtake Pt. 2, is where Jim is visibly telling us he wants out of his skin. And where Jon starts to turn up the heat on him.

Bull...

DNA is no longer a Cara 100 stock

Biotechnology is tied to funding cycles. I think the Obama administration/Kathleen Sibelius will create a friendly cycle for the next few years. The Mission Bay complex in San Francisco will come into its own over the next decade as a major biotechnology R&D center. I would seriously consider overweighting the sector going into the next bull market.

Congratz Grym on taking charge of your money with your broker. Here in the Big White (and FREEZING)North I've found lately that I'm getting little or no push-back from the bankers to my 'requests'. Almost negotiated a 42" big screen from them! lol But you know what they say re close...
S

gold doing a little mexican jumping bean move pre-market.

we have been in this position many many times before.

fresh off a down swing an upswing into past resistance points. it looks promising when these sudden thrusts occur but we musnt fall into the trap until we know its got legs. moves upto and above the resistance points are the key, and right now we have butted up against a resistance point in the high 930's, no breakthrough yet.

volume on the miners was above average but not as strong as the downward days the past few sessions. so some follow through on the miners will help make the bull case for gold resuming the uptrend back towards $1000.

its still 50/50 at this point short term imho, in context of a longer-term bull market.

news clips about chineese officials expressing concern over the safety of its US debt holdings are nothing short of manufactured propaganda. we have seen this countless times and i figured id say something about it before some one posts the story with the lead-in that "this is very bullish for gold", as if china would tip its hat giving the world a chance to short the dollar before they did.

we saw what happened before with allegedly bullish news from russia buying gold, 1 week later gold was down big. no one asked who was selling russia's gold, and no one will ask who will buy china's US-based debt.

barring single day rushes of panic, gold will move on its own time, not because of what some strategically manufactured news piece will incite.

good luck.

We are told to trust our educators, bankers and government officials. We are told they act in the public's best interest. That they are best suited to their purpose. We are told they are honest and ethical.

Yet they have shown themselves to be underserving of our trust. They consistently betray that trust by abusing their priviledge and power for their own purposes. And they twist the facts, omit data and misrepresent the truth to hide their abuses.

We treat them like celebrities and royalty and wonder why their abuses are not judged and punished like every other citizen. We expect accountability and yet we allow ourselves to be manipulated by them. We are willing pawns in their elections and agendas.

If we are to change, we must learn to question motive. We must not be so willing or quick to trust those that seek priviledge and power. We also must reduce the size and scope of that priviledge and power.

We must see their sales pitches and deceptions for what they are and turn our backs on them. We must recognize they have placed shills in our midst. And we must realize that more often than not less is more and the essential truth of Simplify, Simplify, Simplify.

Never truer words spoken.

It appears that many are conditioned to look to government for help. It's natural but not really an historic perspective. For centuries governments have been blatantly oppressive. I think it is correct to expect more out of Democracies. The fact that a Bill Cara community exists is a tribute to better times. Bills voice is much like that heard during the days preceeding the revolution in many European countries a few centuries ago. I appreciate the perspective Bill and this group give. Change in a society is often a result of ground swelling from the bottom up. The last to be convinced is often the leadership. This current bunch may not get it while they are in power due to the various causes of blindness. My response is "Live your life as it is in your heart to live!" What more can you do?

For today....go rally go :-)

still bullish, however.

Bill, you if anyone here would have had a good look behind that curtain.I'm surprised that you're surprised. It was to be expected that there would be no new securities regulation act, there would be no real reform of the banks etc... for now. I share your sense of outrage. Not until there is a breakdown, a social dislocation in our society will you see any real change occur. Unemployment at 8% won't do it but unemployment at 15 to 20% might start to get things rolling. I'm surprised as to how little news there is about unemployment and the unemployed and it's social fallout, this is not a problem that is going to go away anytime soon. When people stop sitting in the middle of the road looking at the car wreck that there life and pension has become and start getting angry, that when we will see change. The politicans will start to listen then. I believe most people are still in shock, wait until they wake up. History teaches us that this has the potential to cause huge social unrest.

Bull Hunter
Just to add to your report I heard on BNN this a.m. that Barclay's commenced coverage on Goldcorp with an under weight and a target of $20 US/share.(approx $24 Cdn.)
Disclosure:long GG and not inclined to listen to Barclay's.

It looks like the $usd is quietly starting to breakdown again like it did in Nov/08 when gold ran from $700 to $1000.
Volume on the miners seems very weak.

Rafish- Mish has a link to an article where the real unemployment number (Table A-12 U6)appears to be around 14.8% now. The url is http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ Sorry I don't know how to link using blogspot or to link it here.

Perhaps just a few more percent will do the job if there's not a real change by then.
S

EDIT- gees, it worked! :)

Just a snippet of the tarp money trail.

It's not what you know.....it's who you know, just keep it quiet.
Yours Truly,
CONGRESS

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/us/politics/13wa...

Looks like the TA guys want a stop sign before entering the intersection.

There is an increasing belief amongst investors that these vehicles are not completely backed with physical metal all of the time...

Barclays changed the words in the original prospectus from "Silver Bullion" to just "Silver," which reading as a lawyer would, begs the question Why? To me it implies there might be other silver investments that count but are not necessarily bullion.

But I never will consider it to be a primary silver investment. Knowing that the SLV is ALWAYS cash settled should raise an eyebrow or two.

As many others and I have pointed out numerous times, there are bar lists and the bars are likely real and do exist. During the interview with Jim Puplava, I gave one of numerous possibilities that could put bars into "inventory" and yet still have several claims against them. Again, the issue with them is whether the ETF really owns them free and clear or they are encumbered or otherwise compromised.

Another point is, the SLV can be "shorted" and this silver does not have to exist in inventory.

http://tinyurl.com/cngm54

Well, recall Salty that popular theater was the means of transmitting stories to the masses, from Shakespeare to Dickens. That they didn't read the financial columns of a newspaper didn't mean that they didn't get it. However, the shallowness of modern thought is somewhat disturbing. What real impact the daily show has on popular economic beliefs has yet to be ascertained. JMHO

I saw an interesting video on the federal reserve and inflation.

Some people are becoming concerned:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oELV35omv-0

Tho':
a) that is for about the 2014 time frame
b) the equivalent lower boundary of the probability interval is sub-$500 for the same time frame

They like the 160% upside vs (only) -50% downside.

ALOHA !!

After reading the entire article and not just the last part you posted it seems Mr. Rong wants desperately to return to the days of expanding money supply ... which is the days of rich banks and poor people.

I accept his view that MONEY=DEBT, but I do not accept his views that WEALTH=DEBT ... It rings much too close to the days of "company stores"! With DEBT you never actually own anything and nor are you "free".. If you have a car loan the car is yours to use for as long as you can pay the monthly loan payments. In terms of homes, most people will never actually pay off their loans, but instead attempt a game of DEBT musical chairs where they move from one home to the next in hopes they will eventually end up with a paid off McMansion due to their skillful use of "speculative equity arbitrage"! What many here in America actually end up doing for most of their life on Earth is "RENTING FROM BANKS"! Like the old company store of the past you are always indebted to the company for everything no matter how hard you worked.

Then there is this ... "Last year, Citigroup reported 32 billion in losses to investors using GAAP. Take a guess how much it reported to the IRS? It reported $10 billion in profit and it PAID $3.5 billion to government. NO idiot would pay money to IRS if it didn’t have to."

I would have to reverse that logic and ask, "HOW MANY CEO IDIOTS WOULD RATHER HAVE NO BONUS AND SEE THEIR NET WORTH AND THOSE OF THEIR SHAREHOLDERS PLUNGE AS THEIR STOCK PLUMMETS TO ZERO AND THEN RUN THE RISK OF NATIONALIZATION OR BANKRUPTCY?" NONE ... To any layman the obvious answer to that question is that there is a GAP between what GAAP calls profit and what the IRS calls profit! As a former employee of the IRS I can tell you ... there is the Real World where you and I live and breathe and then there is the IRS WORLD, where GESTAPO is not a dirty word! One would have to scrutinize the Citi tax return to see where the profit came from. Mr. Rong does not disclose where the profit originated. Perhaps the BAILOUT MONEY is considered a "taxable event" to Citi ... I know that if I got $1bil USD labeled as "BAILOUT" I would have to pay taxes on it! To show you how corrupt the IRS is ... A drug dealer has to pay taxes on profits from his drug sales. The common belief is that drug dealers will not report their earnings to the IRS because then the IRS would just turn them over to the DEA and FBI. Well, the IRS, under statute, cannot report illegal gains to law enforcement agencies, so drug dealers, pimps and the Mafia are all safe with the IRS! Of course probably 1% of drug dealers(if that) actually report earnings anyway! Yet how do most of them get prosecuted? TAX EVASION ... HA!!! Its laughable that the IRS would willingly partner with known murderers and felons just to get tax revenues. ELIMINATE THE US INCOME TAX! That would solve Citi's profit discrepancies that Mr. Rong is concerned with and we all might actually live a life of freedom instead of being slaves to our own government and the banks "company store"! Of course if we eliminated income taxes then a lot of Mr. Rong's would be unemployed!

About the only thing Mr. Rong and I agree on is the stupidity of politicians with their ever "shifting sands" of rules and regs and codes that do more harm than good. Whether FAS 157 is good or not is up for debate. It depends on which evil you want to live with ... the destruction of purchasing power that inflation brings or the joblessness and bankruptcy of deflation. Both roads eventually lead to the same end ... a monetary collapse! What fiat monetary system has never ended in collapse?

There is a BIG PICTURE ... its not all FAS 157 and profits!

Like LAO TZU says ... "The real art of governing consists, so far as possible, in doing nothing."

I predict the average Somalis will end up being more "asset rich" than the average American in the end. While bankruptcy is an epidemic for the average American it is unheard of in Somalia, since the absence of DEBT leaves little to default and few banks. I doubt that Somalia has suffered much from the SUBPRIME crisis ... but Somalia has suffered from civil war. Now that is a different story. Somehow I believe Mr. Rong would believe that DEBT would have mitigated civil war, yet we Americans may also be faced with civil war, except it won't be about black slaves this time, but instead ... indebted tax slaves!

Instead of just focusing on a symptom, like FAS 157, I would rather see a complete renovation of the entire system of AMERICAN EMPIRE, starting with the basis of this government and its financial system ... THE MONEY! As Lao Tzu correctly points out that a journey of a thousand miles begins with one step, so too does the journey to monetary freedom begin with one step. First the power structure has to be dismantled, which is the two party aristocracy(REPS & DEMS). That would be by "peaceful means", however if Americans fail to take that one step then CHANGE will come only it will not be so "peaceful" or "favorable"!

Its still THE MONEY STUPID!

number2son,

Not in my view. Obama has no leadership experience. While he was a state legislator, he submitted very little legislation. As a US Senator he spent most of his time campaigning for the presidency. He did, however, manage to write two books about... (surprise?)...himself!

If we are lucky he may follow Carter's one term path.

Even Carter, one of our least successful Presidents, had been a governor. He and Obama have a vision of what America and Americans "should be." The fact that we may not want to be that does not matter — they think they can reshape us. Congress under Carter was and is able to take control of events due to the crisis mentality in the 1970s and it is very similar today.

Our real freedom is slipping away as more government dependency and control is shoved our way for more and more people.

ALOHA !!

Please-e-e-e ... in other words or the words I have been saying all along ... GLD and SLV have huge paper counterparty risk while real gold and silver have none!

DUH ... what would anyone, given the current bank fraud, expect from an HB&B managed GLD and SLV ETF?

There are a thousand reasons not to own GLD and SLV yet the problem is that 90% of those ETF values come from "deadman walking" investors who hand their mutual funds, pensions and 401ks blindly over to HB&B!

Conflict of interest anyone?

Bill, I sent the e-mail C/O David Jackson
to contact-other@seekingalpha.com retrieved from http://seekingalpha.com/page/contact

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21628

Grym

You offer a lot of critique of Obama's qualifications and his time spent in the Illinois legislature. We all have our views and that is our right. Rather than criticizing Obama for his past, which can't be changed now, I for one would like to hear what you believe your ideal president would be doing differently right now.

What is the best way repair our problems and at the same time decrease our dependency on the government? Isn't it a bit illogical to think that we can rely on government to help us decrease dependence on government? Isn't that a personal responsibility? Can we not, through educating each other and taking personal responsibility, decrease this dependence on our own?

i don't see how it is hypocritical. jon isn't offering up advice to people. he offers commentary. the gist of this is that people were sold the message that stocks are good for the long haul so that bankers could take the people's hard earned money to finance their ponzi schemes all for the bankers benefit. if this doesn't incite anger within you i don't know what will.

the credit default swap market is the largest ponzi scheme in the world's history and it is still being heavily manipulated. people are still not opening their eyes to this nonsense.

>In a better world, UBS would have allowed me to reproduce their full report

Of course, I'm just a peon, not a UBS subscriber -- I just googled to find a link to a posting elsewhere of that current report, and trusted that whoever had it posted was honoring their rights/agreement with UBS.

Link not repeated here so that it's those "elsewhere" folks who are in trouble if it wasn't supposed to be posted, not your (very helpful) site.

agreed and agreed. my only point was that the message that people were sold is why people like jim cramer deserve fault. the over-the-top way in which he and the rest of his network present it is just window dressing.

Geenspan used the split talk conversation strategy every time he went before congress. I can still see congress sitting there for 20 minutes at a time listening to Greenspan split talk, then each one of those congress members would scratch their heads and look around to see if anyone else understood what he just said. Not one ever visually let on they had no idea what the hell he just said. Greenspan was treated like a god, congressmen would curtsy, bow their heads, and kiss his ring finger with out a prompt cue.
Why isn't Greenspan joining Madoff in prison?
The ol' split talk conversation strategy....HA

Good morning – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond price is off to raise the yield to 2.95%, up from the close of 2.90% yesterday and 2.86% last Friday. The yield did briefly rise above 3.0% this week due to stock market gains moving funds away from the safe haven offered by Treasuries. In addition, yields are being pressured higher due to concerns voiced by China relative to the safety of U.S. government debt with large new issues of Treasuries taking place.
Refinances are taking up to 50 days to close due to the flood of applications and to secure a rate out to a 60 day lock degrades the rate up to .25% over the 30 day lock, which suggests floating a rate until approved and locking the “shorter term rate lock”. This also suggests purchases be set for about 25 days out from the contract date to obtain the most favorable rate and terms. Happy Trading

I'm out and 100% cash.

tally for 2009 stands at about 2%. But given my evil broker's charges I should be up about 7%.

Got out cause I don't like the way the European markets closed.

et en plus...

c'est l'heure d'aperitif! (it's drinkies time!)

bon soiree a tous.

Good decision and good track record. 2009 was not very good for me. Still learning and paying market a lot for the lessons. Hopefully I will fine tune the art of stops at some point. So far stops stop me from wining trades yet expose me to limited losing.

Which chart and what indicator? This is a ranging day. Bernanke is being interviewed on 60 minutes this weekend. I would bet that many traders are going to be flat by the close to avoid weekend surprises.

SPY: RSI, full STO, ChiOsc, and MACD.

http://www.voteronpaul.com/newsDetail.php?Ron-Paul...

I have often wondered if the gold is there and what the FED is doing with our money.

I am contacting my reps, etc, and this blog reaches many others, a multiplier effect if you will. Here is a chance to make a difference.

Nemo

I don't have all the answers, but a remedy we can each employ is to simplify our lives - live outside of this system. While income tax is virtually inescapable - there are other ways we can detach these liabilities. I for one own no property and never have (not to say I never will) - I don't want to be subject to the taxes.

I also live a very simple life and try to consume necessities to reduce the amount of sales taxes I am subject to. I shop my local farmers market - directly from producers when possible. I do what I can to step out of the system - to starve the system of tax dollars from my pocket.

Regarding the gold standard - we are all free to purchase gold and silver or any other goods as we please. If these dollars are going to be so worthless then why does everyone seem to want them so darn badly? Forgive me for my lack of knowledge but are there other currencies tied to the gold standard?

As for those with below standard IQ's who are willing to sit by and accept the momentary comforts of television and booze, I am sorry, but I feel very little sympathy. What can I do about that besides living a moral and ethical life and educating my friends and family about what I see going on? I have been all over the world and I can tell you this - there are hard-working people everywhere that dream about living in this country and affording the luxuries of this society.

If Americans have so much hubris that they believe that the magic hand will always be there to protect them, then we will deserve the eventual outcome.

Apolgies in advance for those whom I rub the wrong way.

"I for one own no property and never have (not to say I never will) - I don't want to be subject to the taxes."

I'm with you on the property ownership issue. I see political and contract law risk in owning US real estate. I consider the US to be an outlaw government, and therefore they are capable of just about anything, including raising taxes on land to pay for their terrorism campaigns (not anti-terrorism...terrorism).

Property tax means that your property is ALWAYS at risk of seizure even if you have no mortgage. That would not be a problem in a healthy country/government, but government actions over the last 8 years shows me that the US is moving towards decline (decline into what I'm not sure). Cheney was running an assassination program out of his office for most of his 8 year nightmare, approved of secret prisons, torture, and many other things, without even a peep of complaint from their fellow republifascists, and I just don't like the trends I'm seeing. I am slowing divesting myself of the US. Wish I could just completely leave the country, but have older parents here to take care of.

Looks like the gold price action has tricked me. After pulling back to $900, then bouncing to $940 and then falling to under $900, I thought that the gold rally was over for some time. Instead, gold bounced off the $900 level again and started moving up. So now we have a double bottom at $900, and the price action looks bullish once again. So I just bought 1000 shares of UXG at $1.88. I'll be adding a little of gold miners every day now if gold stays above $920.

Luggie - I read somewhere that the Fed had stated they might begin Treasury purchases when the 10yr rate hits 3.5%. Have you seen this information?

it was a good week...keeping it that way.

Here is an article that famous short seller Doug Kass (and writer for the Street.com) wrote defending Jim Cramer after the Barron's article on Cramer. I thought it might add another side to the Cramer discussion on this board.

Mark
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In the past, I have come to the defense of Jim Cramer against a host of media attacks. I do this not because I write for TheStreet.com -- I view myself as an independent person who speaks his mind regardless of the consequences -- rather I have defended Jim because I strongly believe that he provides a value-added contribution to the individual investor in navigating an increasingly difficult investment terrain.

Jim does this not only on CNBC's "Mad Money" but, importantly, in the publication of his books, Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich, Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer) and Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World, which provide more pensive analytical tools and recommendations in approaching one's investment portfolio.

Bullish media and Wall Street analyst hype are legendary and, to some degree, represent the proximate cause for many investment miscues on the part of individual investors whom have historically behaved in a Pavlovian fashion in their reaction to perma-bullish Pablum, so, when someone like Jim Cramer provides a more thorough and objective educational outline to navigating the market, it should be welcomed by the media, not criticized.

Over the weekend, Barron's published the story, "Cramer's Star Outshines His Stock Picks."

The thrust of the article is that "Jim Cramer's celebrity is bigger than ever" but the "stock picks featured on 'Mad Money' don't live up to the host's hype." The Barron's article is critical of his opinions on an enormous number of stocks and suggests that "in the days leading up to their mention on 'Mad Money,' stocks start to move in the direction of his recommendation. Post-mention, they revert to their previous trend, short-changing investors." The piece goes on to suggest that Jim's staff is "heavy-footed in their research" and the subject matter of many shows appear to be leaked because of that process.

As I have defended Jim Cramer from attacks by the media in the past, I will do so again today, hopefully as an impartial and independent observer.

My basic point has been that, above any other media pundit, Jim provides a value-added educational experience for the average individual investor.

He does this in several ways:

* He goes belly-to-belly with company managements on "Mad Money." He typically doesn't serve up the easy pitch but rather usually goes to the root of the valuation/fundamental controversy.

* His lightning rounds give his quick and abridged impression of a stock's outlook.

* He develops investment themes and strategies that are easily understood and developed reasonably well on "Mad Money" and in his books.

* Most important, on "Mad Money" he provides an educational handbook on how to analyze a company/sector, with a focus on the development of the principal determinants of future stock market behavior.

Jim qualifies almost every investment recommendation with the caveat that investors should not take, prima facie, his word on a stock. He says that every investor has an obligation to do his own homework.

Jim qualifies almost every investment recommendation with another caveat: Don't buy on the spike or strength following his mention. Wait until things calm down, he says.

As to potential leaks, that is an occupational hazard if one is going to carefully research an idea and cover multiple sources. A more comprehensive research approach by "Mad Money" staff is far more preferable than superficial preparation. The same phenomenon occurs in Barron's, the source of this weekend's criticism, as trading desks often "hear" about rumors of Barron's cover stories. Most are specious, but now and again, they are accurate.

The Barron's article analyzes "650-odd" Cramer recommendations and concludes that "his bullish picks underperformed the S&P by about 3.5 percentage points over the 45 trading days after each show."

To that, my response is, So what? Not only is the statistical error broad vis-à-vis the underperformance and the degree of underperformance modest within the context of the volume of recommendations but this analysis presumes a buy/hold strategy, which, particularly in today's volatile times, is plain silly and not the intention that Jim necessarily recommends.

Finally, many of Jim's investment recommendations are indeed nuanced and qualified. Treating every investment recommendation as the same and compiling an investment performance is, to some degree, comparing apples to oranges.

In my final analysis, individual investors are better served listening to Jim Cramer, both with regard to his recommendations and his methodology, than any other business commentator extant. His body of investment knowledge is remarkably broad and lacks the superficiality of most of his brethren.

Jim is an investment populist who, unlike many in my hedge fund cabal, has forsaken that financial rainbow for a greater cause -- namely, helping out the individual investor.

Jim is an easy target, but from my perch, he should not be vilified; he should be admired.

"Jim is an investment populist" --Kass

Wow, it takes a lot of nerve to make that claim. Cramer has certainly positioned himself to APPEAR to be a populist, but get real; Harvard undergrad, J.D. from Harvard Law, trained at Goldman Sachs, and is a close personal friend of Eliot Spitzer. Just as Timothy Geithner is and Henry Paulson was at Treasury in order to look after the interests of Goldman Sachs, Cramer's function is to do the same, and to keep the general public interested in the stock market so they can continue to be fleeced by Wall Street. Cramers technique is to shotgun so many opinions out there on both sides of the market that he can never be proven wrong. Watching Cramer for anything other than comic relief is unwise.

I do not have an opinion on his qualifications. Further along the path...have tried out his action alerts, which cost me much money.

He uses, in my opinion, this alert service to pump and dump. I also noticed he makes convenient mistakes and repeats inconsistant advice. If you want to perform better than Jim Cramer, grab yourself some darts!

BillySundance,

The president is one-third of our system of checks and balances. With that in mind, I believe a president should not abdicate his power to the legislature or the supreme court.

In the current dire set of circumstances brought on by greedy bankers, lazy legislators and AWOL rating agencies I would like to see an attempt to remove the perpetrators.

I believe the major problem goes beyond "fixing" the credit system — what needs fixing is the credibility of our government and financial system. A strong leader if he had the people's interest at heart would not allow this to go unchallenged.

Since I consider myself to be truly conservative my ideal is probably impossible to attain. There is so little left to conserve.

I want nothing from the government personally. Had I been allowed to invest my money instead of paying the "self-employment tax" beginning at age 19, I would be far better to survive my old age.

Nearly every administration in my lifetime, Republican or Democrat, has diminished our freedoms. When not simply raising taxes to fund some utopian socialist vision, they have been intruding into our personal behavior "for our own good" with seat belts, protective lids, bicycle helmets, removal of teeter-totters and swings, restricting foods, there seems to be no end to the involvement. There is a possibility they will soon decide how much and what medical care we will receive.

People can renegotiate their own mortgages (if they were within reality when they signed on). By taking on personal responsibility we can keep government at least somewhat at bay.

It doesn't require a lawyer for many issues, just a willingness to push back.

I have protested my real estate taxes twice and won. I have threatened a lawsuit against a company (former client) who used my artwork without paying for permission — again I won. I have fired my insurance agent when he didn't defend me in an accident caused totally by the other party and won.

You can fight city hall, but my attempts to get anything from upper levels of government have been nearly a complete zero. As individuals we have no clout. I have been harassed by the IRS three times and proven them wrong, but it did cost me a lot of time and some money.

The government in my experience has not been a public servant — more like a public nuisance!

Nemo asked, "How do you get them to give up power?" I wish I knew a way. It would take far more than simply voting out the bad apples. We need to change the whole congressional/lobbying system and be able to control their pay and benefits. They are supposed to work for us, but they have the control and they are not going to give it up.

alberio
Thats -3.5% he underperformed on his bullish calls to the tune of 3.5% BELOW the S&P over 45 days after the pick was made.

I know that, trade it accordingly.

Kaimu,

I think all your opinions are valid...no less than the Founding Fathers called for if the times dictate. I hear your call to change votes, but that is one well oiled(?) machine. I'd be happy to vote for someone else...Massachusetts, unfortunately, is socialist/communist.

http://www.comedycentral.com/

http://events.startcast.com/events6/122/C0018/Even...

Discusses re-evaluation of fundamental risk as it relates to gold, Dow bluechips, Swiss policy change, scale of Obama interventions, "Geithner looking like a scared rabbit," risk of cash, more gigantic losses of the GSEs, Polosi 2nd stimulus and excuse to restructure American economy.

Still a gold, base metals, and commodity bull. Says Bernanke has credibility and Gold ETFs are a buy?! Regional banks are stable? Buy Loonies and Canadian assets including banks.

Hi C.P.- Only thing I have noted recently on the Fed's intervention on rates is as follows from Monday 3/9/09 ---- One measure that was suggested by the Fed to lower rates has been taken off the table for the time being following these Fed comments ----“At this point in time the Fed has judged that buying long-term Treasuries is not the most efficient means of easing financial conditions”. For the best borrowers the spread on the 10 year yield to mortgage rate is approximately 2.2% over the yield --- with higher loan to values, coupled with lowered credit scores sending that number up quite a bit. Some new talk of Fannie "Streamline Finances" which may be lower doc loans that will assist those being slightly underwater or otherwise challenged on existing loans - we'll hear a lot more about this as the new regime takes it to the huddled masses. Happy Trading

Of course if you turn turn off the news, you are then no longer tied to informational manipulation...

Ah the dangers of trading... You need information to base fair trade upon..

But what happens when no information is fair or can be trusted?

It's a delicate dance now a days to retain one's own self while so much information is so heavily design to manage your emotions and actions...

ttp://cbs2chicago.com/politics/income.tax.hike.2.958201.html

Part of the problem is too many people

think they can think their way out of this problem

You ask

At what level can you be smart enough to understand what's going on?

I think we reached a point of saturation with so much misleading information, that without inside information for 99.999% of population it isn't possible to sort it out reliably.

Even with inside information I suspect it's difficult to keep it all clear anymore.

Quite simply.. It's possible to live outside the herd... but too many are now too comfortable being part of the herd to leave it.

It's possible to live to personal heart, local community... not to drop out, but to just live well and follow the whims of what falls out as it may. Not judging what will be for high ground... but being flexible enough to shift as required and quickly making patient choices as the moment arise.

In the end the true secret how to make that happen is awareness...

Awareness doesn't mean sorting out truth from fiction... It means taking in the circumstances you are locally within and verify (not relying on false information feeds designed to confuse awareness) and acting accordingly from that perspective.

We are in the time of greatest potential of any we are likely to live within, but potential requires awareness to channel properly otherwise one is left chasing false dreams.

This makes it the best of times to practice meditation :)

No global one size fit answer exists since I suspect answers truly become personal in nature, since the only answer to best fit are those that do come our center of being... that's 100% personal until a new system of reputation evolves that can be validated to base our information upon.

I would like to hear Vadym's tales from USSR and trust , information sources and how it compares to these times actually.

I don't think we have a historical counter point to compare to... since the bad and good information is so tightly intertwined now. The best lie is one based on 95% truth.... and right now its so well weaved... in countless variations... I know I am impressed by it all. Saddened yes, but it's amazing to witness first hand.

I might be misunderstanding something here, I'm not trying to defend anything.
My initial thought was simply that if you think or "know" something is going to under or over perform something else then you can do a pair trade.
In this case I think the trade is shorting Cramers picks with equal dollar amounts of index long. Forgetting comm. and slippage I think that captures the spread over a period of time. Correct or no?

From his speech at the Brookings Institution today:

"One striking statistic suggests the magnitude of the opportunity that is before us in restoring our economy to its potential. Earlier this week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, adjusting for inflation according to the standard Consumer Price Index, was at the same level as it was in 1966, ... While there could be many ways to question this calculation, that the market would be at essentially the same real level as it was in 1966 when there were no PCs, no internet, no flexible manufacturing, no software industry, and when our workforce was half and our net capital stock was a third of what it is today, may be regarded by some as the sale of the century. For policy-makers, it suggests the magnitude of the gains from restoring sustained economic growth."

Audio speech: http://www.cspan.org/Watch/watch.aspx?MediaId=HP-R...
Transcript: http://www.cspan.org/pdf/summerstranscript.pdf

"I might be misunderstanding something here, I'm not trying to defend anything. In this case I think the trade is shorting Cramers picks with equal dollar amounts of index long. Forgetting comm. and slippage I think that captures the spread over a period of time. Correct or no?

Good, because Cramer's ethics are indefensible from my perspective. You are certainly allowed to trade based upon what he does or doesn't say, that's your prerogative. I for one don't care for him because I've discovered he's conflicted and I'll say so up front and center. BTW, I'm very thankful Stewart is working to expose these conflicted persons and hope to see more of the same, there simply isn't room for this kind of activity in the world I want.

Thanks vinod, and to think I believed Al Gore created the internet...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpxtKcLSFWw

Hot Damn! This guy can give a speech:

http://www.cspan.org/Watch/watch.aspx?ProgramId=HP...

I beg to differ, Bert. I think it's Vadym, here, who most regularly points out big breaking "news" items that affect price movements. Bill, too, has said that we - the small investor - are at a huge disadvantage in this game. They have all the information and make all the big moves that start the trends. Myself, I find it hugely advantageous to listen carefully to what they are saying, not so much for what they say, but often what they don't say. More recently, it is more what they do say that is driving things: Energy independence, education, and health-care. It's pretty consistent, and has had immediate impact on the markets. We just have to decipher it.

:) you get what I am saying

but truth often gets twisted to surprising additional directions.

I have to stress the word awareness. How we connect into and use awareness is a bit more crazy than what one would think.

It's not that the noise is bad, we can even use false truth, lies and noise to help us navigate the times

The crayfish shows us how to use noise to an advantage

http://tinyurl.com/dfj6bz

What the paper translates to say is: a Crayfish actually hears best in the noisy brook and not a calm pond. Since it uses the noise as amplifier (not quite right but close enough).

The problem is we take that noise to heart, and push it too far. It's why I highly stress the answers are personal. For many...turning off the noise is the best solution as it allows them to hear their heart and then better act from their personal center. Less likely to make bigger mistakes.

However, a few like Bill or Vadym are able to sort thru that noise without losing their center and use it to fine tune their knowledge of local condition since as they expanded their "local" area with their own personal awareness practices.

Bill writes about this in his book to some degree how he trained himself to hear the beat of the market place. When I read his book I smiled since I enjoyed his images of how he worked towards expanding his awareness.

IN general I stress to friends here, Awareness isn't "truth"... it's the ability to accept a larger picture of "reality" and match it to how you connect to your surroundings.

Countless practices on how to fine tune that awareness exist, the trick is finding the practices which work well for you :)

The other side of the coin is, since so many "rules" seem to be broken right now as potential is being released, as the game shifts... many people will find their old practices may not work at the moment... which is a another good reason to slow down to re-sync back to heart for a bit as it all does shift about.

Thanks for the noise analogy it brought back mind the crayfish for me and I think that is a great analogy for how to sort thru the media noise right now.

bobj
I have heard of Kass before now and by wading into Cramer's defense, lost what little respect I had for him in the first place.

download ccleaner Jock.

You can choose to have it clean the computer - including your browser - when you start up.

Also makes for a good registry cleaner. Helps keep windows from slowing down.

casey said - so many "rules" seem to be broken right now as potential is being released, as the game shifts... many people will find their old practices may not work at the moment

Boy you are not kidding. Rules that have shifted for me:
* insolvent banks will be liquidated by the FDIC
* housing prices always go up. wow that one has some teeth in it.
* china is "decoupled" from the west
* oil production increases every year
* our children will be "better off" than we are now

practices that have stopped working
* buy and hold investment
* modern portfolio theory
* debt used to be good. now it's bad. boy that one changed quickly.

I'm sure everyone here can name rules that have changed for them in the past 5-6 months.

gld may be testing the 1980 high,gold has not tested it yet for some reason so perhaps a drop/test to 875 for gold is coming.Usd has not hit 90 yet which is 38% fib of the entire drop from 2001, that meshes fwiw

Gld may be a large ihs forming?

ALOHA !!

Anyone here recall these days when our "priorities" were 180 degrees?

"The most important thing is for us to find Osama bin Laden. It is our number one priority and we will not rest until we find him."
- G.W. Bush, 9/13/01

"I want justice...There's an old poster out West, as I recall, that said, 'Wanted: Dead or Alive,'"
- G.W. Bush, 9/17/01, UPI

Well, I guess Osama is still out there roaming around Pakistan somewhere. He outlasted Bush! In fact Osama outlasted the USSR!

Remember the IRAQ WAR? Recall that then Tres Sec O'Neill was fired for saying that the Bush war estimate of $1.78bil USD was much too low!

Total cost as of right now $645bil USD!!!

A 36,000%+ miscalculation! Yet we trust these same Harvard guys to fix the banks and bring back US prosperity!

Go to this link: http://zfacts.com/p/447.html

At the above link you will see at the top they have some choice quotes from Rumsfeld. Anyone here still remember Rumsfeld? Does it seem strange that the IRAQ WAR and the "War On Terror" is now forgotten, much like the "War On Drugs" and the "War On Poverty" and the Vietnam War? Its all taken a backseat when our very own financial survival is at stake ... looming large on everyone's mind! Yet the IRAQ WAR costs keep right on going ... look at that clock go ... kinda like the National Debt Clock! Billions per minute!

Then there is that "lovable lout" Dick Cheney! Look at his insights on IRAQ at that link! Anyone here still recall how Cheney shot the face off his attorney pal and then a few days later the attorney is on TV apologizing for putting his head in front of Cheney's shotgun and spoiling Cheney's hunting trip? Man ... with a doormat like that who would hire him to defend you? Where is that attorney now? Probably the lead donor for the Bush Presidential Library! Heck where's CHENEY? Is he still in the bunker?

Does anyone here actually miss the Bush leadership other than Jay Leno and David Letterman and Jon Stewart?

Hummmmm???? OBAMA? Whasssup????

The collective memory of the American voter is probably running around one day! oopps ... now its down to 23.4 hours!! We need an AMERICAN VOTER MEMORY CLOCK so we can watch the braincells vaporize!

QUESTION AUTHORITY AND THEN VOTE THEM OUT!

The crayfish visual was sharp and it really presents balance. Too much noise and no noise were equally a hindrance. Our ability to process and manage information has its limitations. I should have more appropriately said minimize the noise.

Still there are a great many types and sources of noise in our lives. The Big 3 (government, corporate, media) use incessant targeted propaganda and they seek to dominate our minds for their own purposes. And indeed we do need some of this noise to become aware. This then provides us the opportunity to discover the truth from the source and to test it to see if it resonates with our own experience.

Consider, however, that it is very difficult to immerse yourself in targeted propaganda and continue to be without bias. The Cramer clips played by Jon Stewart illustrated this perfectly. The Big 3 know how to use the information and that it will influence. It is also very difficult to decipher all of that targeted propaganda without bias.

But by minimizing the noise, we are limiting the influence of the targeted propaganda and most likely increasing the scope of our awareness.

casey,

I agree it is difficult to assess the quality of information today. It becomes even more so as the amount and speed of "news" increases. However, I doubt that the ratio of truth to untruth has changed since people have always been basically the same.

I'm in the midst of reading "Intelligence Wars," by Thomas Powers. He cites numerous examples of legal violations and disinformation (lies) from official sources over a long time period.

History, whether ancient, global or our own, is crammed with alternative versions of "truth".

As we've all heard, "ignorance is bliss." (Actually, I think the original here was something different — "If ignorance is bliss, then the pursuit of knowledge is folly.")

Maybe we are just becoming more skeptical, which I see as a plus.

Craig,

A good friend, a retired US Army Lt. Colonel with two combat tours in Viet Nam, told me last week that in his opinion, "We went to Nam because of the rubber."

A long time ago I read an opinion that we went to "save South Korea" in 1950 because of titanium.

It is my firm belief we are in Iraq to establish a permanent military base (our Iraq embassy — which is a self-sufficient fortress) to assure Middle East oil access.

All of these may be arguably necessary to our national survival, but wouldn't it be better to simply honestly make the case than to play these stupidly deceptive word games?

Over the long haul "real things" will out class paper assets every time. Who's willing to die for a Federal Reserve Note?

--------

"So if taxes rise and the standard of living drops like it did to pay for Viet Nam (I have no idea about adjusting for inflation but it sickens me) then we can all imagine what it's going to be like to pay for Iraq."

In our paper today, our new Illinois Governor, Quinn, announced a proposed 50% income tax jump. There is no question we need to do this, but why it is needed has a long history of mismanaging and political skullduggery.

There are a few in Congress who appear to really try to do a good job, but the system is also weighted against them. Perhaps a national push for a Constitutional Convention would give us a chance to draw up a new contract with our employees in Washington. I'd sign in a blink.

We could sure use one in my state. Illinois, We're Number One in Jailbird Governors! ;–(

"All of these may be arguably necessary to our national survival, but wouldn't it be better to simply honestly make the case than to play these stupidly deceptive word games?"

LOL! Because THEN we would connect sacrificing the lives of our kids and their rightful inheritance for a private company(ies), just like Eisenhower warned.
Hmmm, maybe he had a little experience and some insight looking into that abyss?

But, necessity is the mother of invention. What do we use rubber for now?
Not a lot. We gave up on rubber (more or less) and went for oil from which we have made rubber replacements, plastics, etc.

The truth is, we don't really want, or more accurately, TRUST, real free trade or capitalism. One, we have no capital only wooden nickels, and two, we don't use free trade, we use the time tested and failed tools of empire to secure raw materials. Then we accuse everyone else of all sorts of wrongs when they do the same. Just look at our attitude about China and it's acquisitions of raw materials through legal trade! No, we haven't trusted or been capitalists for some time. Pretty screwed up, isn't it?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+min...

A report out of Vancouver says that he is being accused of plundering millions of dollars from a now defunct Thai bank.

I still wonder whether Gold Reserve is now the top choice in Venezuela, considering the contorted wheeling and dealing going on in the background.

Boy, I would not invest in any company doing business in Venezuela. Talk about country risk...when the rice producers are told what to charge for their rice, regardless of whether or not it's profitable? If one company is top choice today, tomorrow the whims of the President could change 180. Respect for contracts seems like a requirement for any sort of long term investment.

Yep, pretty arbitrary dealings in Venezuela. The goal of the Venezuelan government is the nationalization of all industries, so you may as well write off any notion that business will be conducted according to any kind of standard. Further, if the copper price should see its lows of 2002, then much of that industry would be gone. Copper price should be watched, but we won't know until after spring what that looks like. At this point, I would suppose that Venezuela would use any excuse to seize these mines. Just that they don't have any available expertise available to exploit the mines. Its worse than in some African countries.

Craig,

My assertion: "All of these may be arguably necessary to our national survival, but wouldn't it be better to simply honestly make the case than to play these stupidly deceptive word games?"

To which you replied: "LOL! Because THEN we would connect sacrificing the lives of our kids and their rightful inheritance for a private company(ies), just like Eisenhower warned."

Rubber, titanium or oil — we may truly need some raw material in greater amounts than we possess.

Consider oil which is the current item most desired. With the Middle East perpetually in danger of conditions preventing the purchase of the needed quantities of oil I can understand the decision to take extreme action (in this case too extreme and underhanded, I believe).

It doesn't matter today that we squandered the 30 years since the first shortages here. The reality is this country would grind (literally) to a halt without adequate oil supplies. But I maintain people would rather be told the truth flat out than to find out later (or continually suspect) the real reasons for such adventures.

Your comments about free trade, IMO, fall into the same category. (I assume the "WE" refers to those profiting from our manipulated trade policies. Most of us would prefer trade to war.)

Today's talk of restoring trust in the financial system without addressing the cheats and liars who brought on this mess and still continue in their former posts is fruitless. It can only increase cynicism and give justification to the flaunting of laws by more people.

A good example of reasons for my governmental distrust which, unless corrected, will continue to bug me:

http://tiny.cc/m9pQd

Regulator Says Bailout Fund Is Misleading the Public By REUTERS February 6, 2009
"...in buying those securities, Henry M. Paulson Jr., then the Treasury secretary, misled the public about how it was going to price them, said Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor and head of an oversight panel for the bailout, known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP."

Make that managed, spoonfed and patted on the head! There, there, have a nice rally in the sun and be home in time for supper!
If one accepts these fait accompli as manufactured for our amusement then trading on the backs of HB&B may be likened to a Border Collie running across the backs of penned sheep. One foot wrong and you're in the poo. Begs the question: are their broader backs to ride?

Luggie, not to brag but I just closed 2 refis this week in 20 days from application--no sweat. Pick your sources carefully.

Thanks Vadym

That was awesome, it helps with perspective for our situation now

If the majority of information we had were lies, it would be easier to sort out what truth was. The mix of lies and truth is so jumbled now, with so many variations of each story... It's as Nemo laments... how can the average person untangle it... they can't

I think the real issue is not that United State is close to total collapse but rather we are in middle of the process of transforming.

Everyone feels this, putting forth all sort of theory's... and news items like this

http://tinyurl.com/d2t49p

Which ties back to me watching P2P / copyright. Why is the US creating so many secrets as it transforms whole underlying structure of how we do business (so it can be controlled by a few)?

My hope is still of the heart and working out from there.

Thanks again that was a great post my friend.

Front page in local paper: 29,400 jobs lost in first 2 months, government forecast is 15,000 jobs lost for whole year. Oops! Worse yet, they're sticking to that forecast.

Over last few years there was huge pressure on housing with immigration from rest of country. Not enough housing, soaring prices (53% in 1 year), no rental vacancy. Now immigration has turned to emigration, yet there are probably a dozen highrise aparments under construction. My own prediction is more job losses, more emigration, and serious pressure on rental rates when all the new units enter the market.

But really, my view wasn't all that negative on the economy here in general. I figure oil will hold around $50, enough for many oil sands projects to continue, though new plans being put on hold.

However yesterday I drove through Calgary and my outlook got just a little bit worse. Everywhere you look there are cranes, construction is still booming (or rather, projects started during boom are still under construction). Drove by a 52 story office tower just started, probably saw 20 cranes working on apartment building, another half dozen on shopping centers, etc. That is a ton of capacity at a time when demand is slipping. It is said Alberta was in a depression in the early 1980's, and it is all to easy imaginine it happening again.

Reminds me of reading a few years back that Calgary was shooting past Edmonton in terms of size and development, and partially to blame was Edmonton's reluctance to issue municipal debt. So once again we have debt fueling an (artificial) boom, and now it's coming home to roost.

Also talked to a friend of pastor friend of mine who hears many tales of woe, tales of retired folks who have lost the bulk of their retirement, tales of people who were heavily invested in oil & gas (bread and butter of Alberta) who were basically wiped out. Yes the tide will eventually turn, but an 80% loss on investments isn't turned around in a year or two...

Regarding James Kunstlers views on the unsustainability of suburbia, I read a lot of his stuff a couple years back and don't disagree. I was happy that Edmonton avoided the sprawl for a long time, unfortunately about 5 years ago they caved and now we've got our fair share of it. But Calgary's sprawl is mindboggling. It would probably take 3 times as long to traverse Calgary end-to-end as it would Edmonton, though our population is fairly close.

Sorry for rambling. Just happy to be back home and able to contribute again :)

I recently played Darden Restaurants (DRI) somewhat successfully on the short side, and got out in time for this weeks huge rally. And I think next week I'll be loading up on puts again. There is just too much unjustified optimism for restaurants in general, and Darden has a pretty ugly balance sheet in my opinion.

Tidbits from article at: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090309/restaurants_analyst...

"Restaurants may prove to be more resilient than other consumer-dependent industries as the recession deepens, a Morgan Keegan analyst said Monday.

Analyst Bob Derrington said in a note to investors that although traffic may be down relative to what it was in more "robust times," same-store sales -- or sales at stores open at least a year -- are holding up relatively well."

Wow, sounds like some serious conviction on analysts part! I think the analysts are in for a surprise. Here's another incredibly dull minded analysis explaining the holding up of restaurant sales:

"At some point it seems battle-fatigue sets in and, as a protective conditioned-response, consumers look for an escape," he said. "Restaurant dining can provide that escape."

Yeah, until their credit card is rejected and they can't afford $50+ for one meal for a family, or they realize they could feed their family for 1/10th the cost at home.

And then this gem:

"He also noted that many chains have begun offering deals to diners to entice them to eat out rather than cook in."

Boy, that sure sounds like a positive for the industry! Maybe this is why sales are holding up, but sales do not equal profits.

Let me repeat the balance sheet picture as of Nov. 23, 2008:

Current Assets (ex-Inventory): $240M
Current Liabilities: $1,380M

Earnings out Tuesday. I know it's a bit of a gamble, but I'll be positioning myself short before earnings...

The Boy in the Bubble Paul simon

It was a slow day,
And the sun was beating
On the soldiers by the side of the road,
There was a bright light,
A shattering of shop windows
The bomb in the baby carriage
Was wired to the radio,
These are the days of miracle and wonder,
This is the long distance call,
The way the camera follows us in slo-mo
The way we look to us all,
The way we look to a distant constellation
That's dying in a corner of the sky,
These are the days of miracle and wonder
And don't cry baby don't cry
Don't cry,

(Pause)

It was a dry wind,
And it swept across the desert
And it curled into the circle of birth,
And the dead sand,
Falling on the children
The mothers and the fathers
And the automatic earth,
These are the days of miracle and wonder,
This is the long distance call,
The way the camera follows us in slo-mo
The way we look to us all o-yeah,
The way we look to a distant constellation
That's dying in a corner of the sky,
These are the days of miracle and wonder
And don't cry baby don't cry
Don't cry

(Pause)

It's a turn-around jump shot
It's everybody jump start
It's, every generation throws a hero up the pop charts,
Medicine is magical and magical is art think of
The Boy in the Bubble
And the baby with the baboon heart

And I believe
These are the days of lasers in the jungle,
Lasers in the jungle somewhere,
Staccato signals of constant information,
A loose affiliation of millionaires
And billionaires and baby,
These are the days of miracle and wonder,
This is the long distance call,
The way the camera follows us in slo-mo
The way we look to us all o-yeah,
The way we look to a distant constellation
That's dying in a corner of the sky,
These are the days of miracle and wonder
And don't cry baby don't cry
Don't cry don't cry

Vadym, thanks for writing that post. I have read stuff on collapse by Orlov, and it has been concerning me for a while now. He's a smart guy, and yet the stuff he wrote didn't sit right with me. I felt like he was leaving some important things out of the equation, but I couldn't quite put my finger on it.

Entrepreneurial spirit, availability of information, history and expectation of democracy, the habit of relatively free speech, no likelihood of immediate civil war, those are major positives - especially when compared to the FSU. We think differently because we were raised in a different environment. How different, we don't really understand. But you do.

Thanks again.

2nd - "CP- Are you positioned for a strong day? I don't have a take right now either way."

Yes, TNA, TCK, BAC and a couple others. A once in a lifetime opportunity perhaps? Too bad I didn't catch them at rock bottom but if things turn seriously south I'll cut 'em loose. IMO, M2M is about to see modification along with maybe uptick reinstated.

How much longer can they allow these job losses to mount? 10+% will be painful with long recovery if spread across country, boomers asking where their life savings went saying "I don't know" is unacceptable.

Dave,I am a sucker for a good t.a. puzzle. Here is another with the hui. The neckline that started this mess pretty much has to get tested doesn't it?

Check out the link to community photos. That leaves you with who really killed the Kennedys (I think it was Oswald and Sirhan, myself), and I forget your other burning question.

Don't let the "traditional frisking at Rock Sound Airport" scare you away from CTAB ;)

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/03/theres-market-f...

2nd
I think we will rally up to G20 meeting. All involved in G20 are cooking a lot together. Bottom was made at 666.
Brought some FAZ on Friday at 39.00 to protect my long BAC/JPM.
Next week is also expiration week and it is triple expiration, and I am expecting wild swing up to Friday.
I do read all the post that is about market and stock. Also it is not easy to get mortgage with good credit and big down payment like before and now they wants closing cost (2500) while it was none before. Went to my mortgage broker, a friend of 25 year for my son’s mortgage. Credit score of 740. House price 420k and need mortgage for 280K. They quote me 5.125 with 2.5K closing cost no point. We told him to lock in when it is 5.oo or under. Broker said now a day bank wants lots of information. My feeling is housing market is not going to improve soon. Reason is they are now stricter than they should be to giving a mortgage to people.
Also, I did join Reality Trader and learning. I feel that I need more experience. When S&P was at 666 I went 80% in market with Dow stock only. Sold most on Friday but kept BAC/JPM/MSFT. Incase thing go bad brought 100 FAZ

ALOHA !!

Yes, I agree with Vadym and thank you for your analysis. My ex-boss from the USSR(Kiev) would always praise the USA, but in fact he was comparing apples and oranges as the USA started with FREEDOM and built on it, but that was in 1776 and even our Founding Fathers consistently warned of the fragility of those freedoms. We now see the erosion of FREEDOM over the past 230 years and I think if the Founding Fathers were alive today they would order the entire US CONgress to be hung for TREASON, including Bush and Obama! What we have now is nothing remotely resembling what we started with. The essence of the US CONSTITUTION and DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE is SMALL GOVERNMENT that serves WE THE PEOPLE. What we have now is HUGE GOVERNMENT that destroys WE THE PEOPLE! I believe the biggest cause of BIG GOVERNMENT has been the fiat monetary system illegally foisted on this country by the US FED and its member banks. Any chance for REAL CHANGE has to address that very banking cartel, otherwise it is just a band-aid!

BLAH- BLAH - BLAH!!

So aside from the "assigned" value on the FX, what is the fundamental difference between a Ruble and a US Dollar? They are essentially one in the same as they both are DEBT based and can be printed into infinity, but the US Dollar has the one advantage of Worlds Reserve Currency, had the Ruble been the Worlds Reserve Currency we would be speaking Russian now!

Worlds Reserve Currency is a heavy sword to lift and it cuts both ways. It just depends on how the "rulers" of the sword decide to use it. So far I have been very disappointed with their choices over the past 50 years!

Worlds Reserve Currency in and of itself guarantees nothing in the end and that became a 100% guarantee of NOTHING in 1971.

Its still THE MONEY STUPID!

ALOHA !!

Oh Wow ... he posted it!

HA ... HA!! Holy Cow ... I think I dared Bill to use my "assume the position" photo! Don't ever dare BILL!! I vaguely recall we were talking about South Florida and the Bahamas weather and I announced ... "This is what I remember from my days in South Florida ... ASSUME THE POSITION!" HA!! Jim the photographer decided to shoot my photo! We had a good laugh!

I can assure people here that I never got frisked once in the Bahamas!

In my surfing 20's years traveling with a huge backpack that stunk of dried conch(leftovers from Fiji)I did get frisked once(and only once)in Sydney, Australia ... HA!! Those were the days when "profiling" was not a dirty word! HA, and the blonde long-haired surfing types were perfect prey for the establishment!

I have mended my ways and now I am much more "compliant" to the dictates of the proletariat! HA!!

Hummmmmm????

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&re...

Good read... GE 2% of assets marked to market.... 2%...

Can we believe eliminating transparency will help the broad markets? Credit/equity or even currencies...

After the 1929 crash the 200DMA:
- maintained a downward slope for over three years
- wasn't meaningfully breached for just shy of three years
- was just barely touched only twice, within 2 month period after first rally only
- subsequent lower highs got further and further away from 200DMA

The nasdaq crash was a little less severe, but the 200DMA was also abandoned to the downside for 1 year 2 months before significant breach.

I figure we rally at best just above the 50DMA before rally rolls over. Looking at these old bears and rallies really just look small, like they are setting up a trading range, which is eventually proven to be a downtrend after all...

Geitner should consider hiring the top 50% of out-of-work bankers to return to their old hunting grounds to clean up the toxic waste. Instead of throwing $700b at the problem. Money like that gets skimmed off. Whereas self-motivated janitors can find satisfaction (and maybe even a little redemption) in cleaning up after themselves and their colleagues. You know, I've always thought they should take the best and brightest and pay them top dollar to be janitors. It's a challenging, honorable profession that requires [an in-depth understanding of several disciplines: human behavior and psychology, disease transmission and prevention, physics, and engineering], [consistent/unflagging attention to detail- almost an obsessive-compulsive personality], [dedication and pride], and last but not least, [the full support of administration in ensuring that the job is taken seriously]. Yet we offer low starting salaries and budgets and often hire people with less than suitable educational backgrounds and personality traits. I'm entirely serious.

Craig- I'm pretty confident we've seen the ST low. I'm also pretty confident we retest the low. As usual, timing is everything.

We've all read some version this weekend of the quote below:

"Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao had said Friday he was concerned about the safety of the estimated $1 trillion his country has invested in U.S. government debt. China is Washington's biggest foreign creditor, and Obama's administration is counting on the Chinese to help pay for the $787 billion economic stimulus package by buying U.S. bonds.

"Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I'm a little bit worried," Wen said. "I would like to call on the United States to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets."

I hate to say it, but having Premier Wen express concern about US debt gives me more confidence that the Fed is going to take action than all the ranting I've heard in the Senate. A clear example of 'the big stick.'

"AIG had expected its retention payments would cost about $1 billion, according to a March 2 regulatory filing. The payments, reported earlier by Bloomberg, drew criticism from U.S. lawmakers who objected to giving individual employees as much as $4 million at a company whose wrong-way bets on credit- default swaps helped deepen the global credit crisis. AIG had said the payments were needed to keep talented people. "

Pheeew! It's only $100M in bonuses and retentions now. What a relief.

Why aren't all these people in jail? How can this happen?

Gotta love those "no comment" statements...

Despite being bailed out with more than $170 billion from the Treasury and Federal Reserve, the American International Group is preparing to pay about $100 million in bonuses to executives in the same business unit that brought the company to the brink of collapse last year.

An official in the Obama administration said Saturday that Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner had called A.I.G.’s government-appointed chairman, Edward M. Liddy, on Wednesday and asked that the company renegotiate the bonuses.

Administration officials said they had managed to reduce some of the bonuses but had allowed most of them to go forward after the company’s chief executive said A.I.G. was contractually obligated to pay them.

In a letter to Mr. Geithner, Mr. Liddy wrote: “Needless to say, in the current circumstances, I do not like these arrangements and find it distasteful and difficult to recommend to you that we must proceed with them.”

The bonuses will be paid to executives at American International Group’s Financial Products division, the unit that wrote trillions of dollars’ worth of credit-default swaps that protected investors from defaults on bonds backed by subprime mortgages.

An A.I.G. spokeswoman said the company had no comment beyond the text of the letter.

http://tinyurl.com/cxuhey

2nd-Yep, should have inserted "the Chinese government" between the Fire fighters and teachers in my last post.

In a nutshell, economist Allan Brennan of the Alberta government predicted that a cataclysmic event would shake world finances within a year, and Trevor Hamon of Dundee Private Investors suggested we will revert to a lifestyle of grandparents living with children and people taking their own lunches to work.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Life/Dire+forecasts...

God help us all if we have to start taking lunches to work. Oh the humanity!!

Having posted several favorable comments regarding Rusoro, I feel I owe the community an explanation.

If there's one thing I've learned in business, it's to stay away from people with a dubious or complicated past, and work only with good, straight-up people. Therefore, I had gone to some lengths to learn about the management, directors, and founders of Rusoro, and had uncovered nothing substantially negative until Kaimu made me aware a few hours ago of this investigative piece appearing in tomorrow's Vancouver Sun:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+min...

I had had a long phone conversation with Rusoro director Gordon Keep about Rusoro management and had asked him specifically about the reputation and past dealings of the Agapovs (the founders). He said nothing about the issues reported in the above, or about the investigation commissioned 3 years ago by an unnamed investment bank (which Mr. Keep told the Sun's reporter he had been aware of).

I had asked the same of Rusoro President, George Salamis, who only mentioned Andre Agapov’s sale of a brokerage firm in New York, which I had on my agenda to look into. Google had no negative information about the brokerage business, or about what is reported in the above.

I had, of course, read most available materials and also searched on Google regarding the Agapovs, and nothing had surfaced at all. (That’s why I had phoned Director Gordon Keep and CEO Salamis). Messrs. Keep and Salamis presented themselves well on the phone, and checked out through other channels as experienced and well-regarded mining professionals.

I expect that Rusoro shares will likely crater on Monday. Rusoro has a C$100M financing underway (underwritten by Canaccord and GMP Securities) which is scheduled to close next week. The presumption has to be that the financing will be delayed (perhaps terminally). If Andre Agapov were to resign tomorrow, and the Board were to appoint an interim CEO of impeccable reputation, the financing, and the company's prospects might be restored. However, I believe such developments are unlikely.

So, I will be selling my shares on Monday. I have always closed my posts on Rusoro with "DYODD". I doubt whether even the underwriters of Rusuro's financing had discovered the contents of today's news.

I hope no one else will incur losses because of Rusoro.

Hey Mark, I also bring my lunch almost every day (except wing Wednesdays, can't beat 25 cents a wing :)

Not sure what input you are looking for on your friends example. What I would do to help them or what I would do in their shoes? I don't know enough about bankruptcy laws and the like, but my minimal understanding is that if you walk away from an underwater mortgage, your credit rating is toast for X number of years, but that's it (i.e. bank can't come after remaining assets).

If that is the case, I guess it depends on circumstances. If your friend makes enough and can afford the payment comfortably, and feels a moral obligation to keep paying the mortgage, then he may as well stay.

Now if his payment is $3K/month and he could rent an equivalent house for $1.5K, might it not make sense for him to start considering bailing on the house and renting? I mean, that's an extra $18K per year he could save towards kids education, whatever. Is having your own house and building memories, etc, worth $18K/year? What about the extra financial security of saving an additional $18K? What if he loses his job? He could afford $1.5K/month for twice as long as he could $3K per month, and don't think the banks wouldn't kick him out of his home where all his memories were made.

If I was in his shoes I'd think long and hard about staying tied to that kind of mortgage and the associated financial burden. Yes it would suck giving the keys back to the bank and dealing with the marred credit rating, and I don't know what it would be like trying to find a place to rent (not hard I would think giving the desperate housing situation). Like I said, would need to weight all the variables.

What would I do to help him from the governments standpoint? Well, letting banks ignore mark to market valuations does nothing to help him out. Giving him a lower rate to lower his payments but make him a debt slave for the rest of his life, while a reasonable short term boost to his cash flow, I don't think is doing him any favors.

Heck, better to mark to market house prices and adjust everyones outstanding principle to what the house is worth. Banks and MBS holders get screwed, $ probably crashes a bit, but people get to stay in their homes. But yes, then you get back into the argument that you need to sweeten the deal for people who didn't stretch to buy, etc. etc.

Didn't make much on my AZO puts as the gap fill i was expecting didn't materialize. But thankfully got out of the way of this weeks rally. Right now it's sitting with oversold daily and weekly RSI's and still has the gap looking to be filled. And not believing we're out of the downtrend yet, will look to hop on board shorting this one again.

I mean look at the chart, you wouldn't even think we're in a recession! And yes, i know, in recession more people will fix old cars, blah blah blah. But I just don't believe this market can support parabolic ascents like this the way it used to...

These people were so 'talented' that they have needed 120 billion just to stay afloat and thats not even a given

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.h...

ALOHA !!

But then there is America with companies like FNM and FRE who at one time were perceived as GUARANTEED by the USSA ... What did their share prices close at on Friday ... eleven cents less than Rusoro-RML!!!

FNM = $0.42
RML = $0.53

Then if you really want to see sub penny stocks then check out where Lehman shares were on Friday! What sort of retirement will Lehman employees be looking forward to? Where is that Lehman pool of "talent" today?

Just as Venezuela has its "Democratic Dictator" we have some of our own! I honestly do not see the two party aristocracy as much different than "dictators"! What sort of REPRESENTATION do WE THE PEOPLE actual have in DC? Without representation then we have a dictatorship ...

There is a thin line that we Americans tread these days as we look down our noses at the rest of the World!

AHHHH ...

ALOHA !!

I agree EDC ... "crap is crap" no matter how you bundle it!

From a "builders point of view" which has been mentioned here before ... within ten years the banks who "own" those McMansions are going to have to start "deffered maintenance"! PLEASE-E-E, bankers are paper shufflers ... they are salesmen trying to make a bonus. What do they care about COMMUNITY, unless its their own community and even then I am not sure they care much!

I have an investment with a private anti-real estate company based in Southern California and about a month ago I was sitting in the CEOs new offices! We get a monthly newsletter on the company and he mentioned they were moving offices. Well, that blurb started a flurry of concern from shareholders who thought the company was going BK!!! Believe me, it does not take much to spook the herd these days with what is shown on TV on a daily basis. Turns out the building the company was in for ten years was sold and the the new owners jacked up the leases to $3.55 per sq ft in this environment well the company found a better space in a nearby building at $1.55 per sq ft. So the new owners now have an empty building at $3.55 per sq ft! There is an example of "mark-to-market" and supply and demand! SUPPLY abounds prices drop ... Nothing can change that in the Real World!

This is why I believe there will be a revival of REAL WEALTH assets and paper assets will be thrown under the bus! All the MBS, CDO, CDS, SIV are in unlimited supply and even growing not shrinking as I type this.

The basics have always been "brown bag lunches" ... That is what I grew up with! That is what my Father and my Grandmother taught me. That is how they went to work every day. It wasn't that long ago that we were all sold a line of BS that you needed a $5 cup of coffee in a European atmosphere. Was that "mark-to-model"? HA!!!

There is a tie to all this and peer groups, which is what statist schools promote. Public schools promote "sheep mentality", because that is what the State needs in order to survive. Would any of this BAILOUT pass inspection in 1778? SnakeOil salesmen were hung in those days! Now they get $700bil BAILOUTS with no public debate!

Take the first step and vote the two party aristocracy out ...

All we have now is TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION!

ALOHA!!

Does Bernie Madoff still collect Social Security in jail?

I was thinking tonight ... What is the difference between the MADOFF PONZI SCHEME and Social Security and Medicare PONZI? You have to know what a PONZI is ... Essentially, those who get in at the beginning of the PONZI get PAID but those at the end DON'T! Its musical chairs right now ...

Tonight I saw this at the Cunning Realist about the Bush plan for private Social Security accounts and it seems to tie in well with this subject.

Imagine if the Bush Plan for private Social Security accounts had passed!! I think we would have seen an actual street revolution with old geezers and their walkers joined by the youth who would see clearly that their payroll deductions for SS and MED were really just one BIG PONZI!

Aren't they? What isn't a PONZI in America these days?

READ ON:
That Would Have Worked Out Well

Anyone seen any recent calls for Social Security private accounts?

The stock market crash has shown how catastrophic private accounts would have been, and who would have really benefited from them. Would the government have allowed the Bear Stearns and Lehman outcomes had the Social Security system been chock full of those stocks? Remember, both were former blue chips, the sort of companies that proponents of private accounts insisted any new system would be limited to. The same for Citi, AIG, Fannie Mae, and others. How much pressure would the Fed and Treasury have felt -- and what more would have been done -- to keep those afloat and/or out of penny stock land?

That pressure would have been exerted by millions of unpaid but highly effective lobbyists: people emailing and calling Washington, demanding that their Social Security money -- and so the stocks, the companies, and the executives -- be saved. Corporate bondholders would have loved it, since the Social Security system effectively would have become a massive safety buffer. Would "nationalization" even be considered if it meant destroying part of Social Security?

Private accounts are dead now, so it's a bit of a moot point. But I wonder how many of those who both supported them and genuinely object to the prevailing bailout ethos ever thought this through.

posted by The Cunning Realist

ALOHA !!

I love this guy's honesty!!! This is JIM THE REALTOR off YouTube ... He seems to enjoy touring crappy real estate in the San Diego region!

It seems "ice cream trucks" are thriving in San Diego!

Very funny moments ...

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIpRuAC8KE8

Mark-to-model home lessons!

Its nice to see GROUND REPORTS like this! Makes me appreciate the farming life!

So when the going gets tough, I run off to Wiki:

"Pu is seen as keeping oneself in the primordial state of tao. It is believed to be the true nature of the mind, unburdened by knowledge or experiences. In the state of pu, there is no right or wrong, beautiful or ugly. There is only pure experience, or awareness, free from learned labels and definitions. It is this state of being that is the goal of following wu wei."

So before Wiki, I thought awareness was a consciousness of your own faith and perception rules and how they impact your receipt of facts, but now maybe I think awareness is achieved by letting go of faith and interpretation and simply experiencing what is happening now without judgement or preconceptions to interfere.

Certainly, faith in the following things have diminished greatly recently:
* the markets go up 10% per year, on average
* the rule of law in the US financial system
* housing prices always go up
* our elected officials more or less represent our interests

Major changes in these long-held articles of faith by the US public will have dramatic, long term consequences.

Is that what you meant by the rules are changing? Raising my awareness will happen when I reduce the effects of my faith and interpretations, and I will be able to see what's really happening more or less clearly and unfiltered, and will be able to be less surprised and more able to select a more likely optimal response?

I mean, this basically boils down to Question Authority - but your inner authority, not the external one.

[edit: Bill said in his Saturday review, "When you have an open mind and no preconceived notions, it is much easier to get into rhythm with the market, seeing the impulse moves before they happen, no directional bias to cloud your judgment." That sounds suspiciously like awareness.]

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/03/sunday-morning-...

- Roubini

Charts
- Housing
- Consumer discretionary
- Panera
- Intercontinental Exchange
- Trade Universe Matrix

Bernanke on 60 Minutes tonight. Caveat Emptor.

"And after a while markets are again “shocked shocked” (to paraphrase the French police inspector in Casablanca) to discover that the macro news are much worse than expected in the US and abroad.."

Roubini makes a good point. An understanding of human nature/psychology (be it innate or learned) is invaluable when investing. Successful investigators have it, successful politicians have it. Successful traders have it. Successful gamblers, which is what investors have become, need it. We are all surprised from time to time. To be shocked, on the other hand, means you're playing the wrong game.

Not to make light of anyone's situation, but it does not surprise me to read about Madoff/Stanford investors expressing shock. The shock indicates an inability/unwillingess to understand what we are all capable of doing to one another (and have been doing to one another since the beginning of mankind). Whereas the investigators in the case, like Columbo, are merely amused.

As pointed out/asked above, I believe by Kaimu, was this part of a expression of social engineering designed to benefit low income voters (I object to specifying what they *look* like, they were/are all poor and had no credit or business buying, good enough) and make them part of the base....or was the entire Bush administration a giant ponzi scheme designed to fleece the entire American public driving everything possible into sivs, cdo's, etc. etc. etc. and having privatized SS....capture IT ALL?

I'm a big enough cynic to go with the bigger lie.
WAY BIGGER.

I think they used our sacred cows as a scam. I seriously doubt anyone was trying to do any good (for anyone else), except for their own wallets.

THIS is human nature. The truth is brutal.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Oilers+owner+...
The former owner of the Edmonton Oilers was just bailed out of jail by Glen Sather, these guys just dont get it, its only 10:30 in the morning and im already sick to my stomach.

EDC —"We built a quarter century of homes in 5 years and we sold a quarter century of homes to first time home buyers during that period too... All demand was pulled from the future from easy money. Also prices were raised and supported by easy credit, not in fact by production or higher wages.

The same applies to autos and I suspect most consumer discretionary products. Businesses may upgrade computers only if no alternative, but who need more capacity or speed in this market? Consumers will slack off for sure. Perhaps only the youngest, least affected in lost savings and most in tune with the latest fad will buy.

IMO, the bailout and stimulus are just pretend events. Unless/until people are confident of their personal economic situation, there will be no return to a 70% consumer supported US economy. We need to make things we can sell to other countries. This is "change (for the better) I can believe in."

proudPapa — "I'd add that the house bought year or two ago for $370K with equivalents being sold for $300K will likely not see a true market value of $370 again for many, many years."

Which is only a problem if you want to or must move. If, as Rick Santelli pointed out, you bought the house to live in, the current market price is not relevant.

re: The Looting Continues — Our largest local bank with a long term good reputation now has a growing number of non-producing loans. Their stock (which my 90-tear-old neighbor owns) dropped from $32 to $0.85 over the last two years — this week on an up move to $1.41 they announced bonuses are being paid to "keep their valuable managers."

Mark Barry — "I don't want the government to do anything for me other than the basics. Police, fire, education, defense, etc."

Like many cities ours is facing a budget shortfall due to lost businesses, layoffs and lower tax base. The fire dept. will be cut from four to three men per truck and police will work 50% more hours per shift. We will continue to bus kids to school for racial balance, and increase public bus fairs 25 to 50%. For those who can't afford a car this will be a major cost increase.

Stupidity reigns supreme.

Truly sorry to hear this, jock. Now which thief will end up with the loot? Chávez, predictably enough. We can expect that will soon declare Rusoro unfit to be a partner of the Boliviarian State of Venezuela and proceed to take over the mine in the name of socialism, demonstrating yet again that "he who has the gold makes the rules".

By the way, I neglected to mention in my last response to you that in fact Ecuador's most recent default on sovereign debt occurred three months ago, announced by the President himself. Not a case of "can't pay, won't pay", but rather "can pay, don't feel like it". Yet again.

I stand by all my previous warnings.

I just checked and FNM is yielding $0.02 (47.60%)!

That might give some pause with most equities :-)

Good morning Grym- I enjoy reading your posts. Sorry, I must be a little slow this morning because I don't understand the connection you are implying with my post.

"Mark Barry — "I don't want the government to do anything for me other than the basics. Police, fire, education, defense, etc."

Like many cities ours is facing a budget shortfall due to lost businesses, layoffs and lower tax base. The fire dept. will be cut from four to three men per truck and police will work 50% more hours per shift. We will continue to bus kids to school for racial balance, and increase public bus fairs 25 to 50%. For those who can't afford a car this will be a major cost increase."

Thanks.

Physical supplies must be really getting tight...

Production of United States Mint American Eagle Gold Proof and Uncirculated Coins has been temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins. Currently, all available 22-karat gold blanks are being allocated to the American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-185 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .”

The United States Mint will resume the American Eagle Gold Proof and Uncirculated Coin Programs once sufficient inventories of gold bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Gold Coin products. Additionally, as a result of the recent numismatic product portfolio analysis, fractional sizes of American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coins will no longer be produced.

http://tinyurl.com/bwbkdj

everyman, birds of a feather flock together, i believe that this is the type of person the Chavez feels totally comfortable with, being a dubious character is viewed as a positive, and no doubt that Chavez and his kind will end up with all the gold and money in the name of revolution, mean while with the new legislatioin passed last month he can now run for a third term. This all reminds me of an episode from Gilligans Island where Gilligan dreamed that he deposed of a banana republic leader and then hired him on as an advisor, and while standing on a balcony of a palace he was addressing the masses and turned to the old leader and asked him what should he say to the crowd, the old leader replied, " Promise them this, that and the other thing ". The next scene was that the old leader now lead a coup against Gilligan. At least Gillagan finally woke up from his dream, if it was only that easy.
On a personal note, with US Steel announcing the temporary shutdown of our facility it has started to affect my trading, i just couldnt pull the trigger on what would have been two very profitable trades with FAS and SLW, the setup was there and yet in the back of my mind all i could think about was that i could lose, even with tight stops in place to minimize it. I try to play Billy Ball and supplement my Unemployment with the trading and have done quite nicely since November, maybe i just needed some time off like 2nd, give my head a shake and clear my mind. I guess i am one of the fortunate ones at my old place of employment, i was and am financially responsible, always paid myself first, will pay my house off for a second time this May after a brutal divorce, avoided any unnecessary debt and still have enough left over to survive for some years to come even if i dont work. I have so many positives going for me and keep trying to tell myself this but i guess once the safety net of a job is removed it really can play havoc with the mind. T-bar, thank you for the kind words in your e-mail this week and glad to hear your doing well.

Craig
It was just a clinical trial in economy, I don't know what phase it was in. result told us it did not work. Now they will try something else to see if it works.
We never are going to give up trying until we find right medicine. That how I believe it.

Why should there be an uptick rule before shorting?

I DO understand the need to stop "naked shorting", i.e. shorting when shares are not ever borrowed. But, shouldn't a market be equally "frictionless" in either direction? Otherwise, how do you get unbiased price discovery?

If they restore the uptick rule, shouldn't they simultaneously introduce a "downtick rule" before taking a long position?

My apologies, yes, it pre-dated Bush.

As Kaimu cautions, it's a two party aristocracy.

Remember, the choices were supposed to be McCain and Clinton. IOW, more of the same HB&B control. Obama was unforseen by the rightful dictate, and didn't we get a front row seat to that fight? The girl didn't have any quit because it was supposed to be hers by divine right!

It's not lost on me that Greenspan was as buddy-buddy with Clinton (if not more so) than any Republican Pres.

Kaimu's earlier posts from today are right in line....

Tango,

I don't know what kind of significance you assign to this, I am pretty sure there is none. Uptick rule has been of more or less noticeable inconvenience for shorts during fraction times. It became practically irrelevant when the market switched to decimals and when trading softwares incorporated "chase above the bid" feature.

Re-introduction of this rule now is nothing but a populist measure with no real outcome. If outright banning of the shorting hasn't changed anything in the fall of 2008, this very minor tweak won't be even noticed.

If you are questioning whether there was some sinister motive behind the move and it was to benefit some of the "men behind the curtains", history will disagree with it. Rule, while existed in fractions environment, caused frequent complaints. Most of those complaints were about an uneven playing field - uptick rule existed for the unwashed masses, you see, not for market makers who could short freely. So if anyone's benefited from repelling it, it was a small trader/investor. When the markets switched to decimals, nobody cared at all anymore. Even the reaction on the rule abolishment was so muted, you wouldn't believe it was a hot potato for so many years.

Special delivery in your mail box...

I thought awareness was a consciousness of your own faith and perception rules and how they impact your receipt of facts,

It's actually a process of release, leaving one in a space of clarity from which actions flow to wu wei

But that's the Taoist version of how to do this. As I mention countless other methods exists on how to tap into that state of being.

I stress answers at this stage are highly personal also in how to embrace the process of release.

2nd, Swiss- I started to work on my YTD analysis Fri. night. I wanted to get an accurate look at my trading activity, both positive and negative. All of the following is based on my entire portfolio, zeroing out, analytically, positions held over from last year and all percentages include cash holdings.
TYD I am +9.12%. Last year, buy and hold theory mostly, I was down about 22%. After reviewing all of my trades I have noticed the following:
Most of my trades miss the initial move up, and exit prior to the top. These trades have been a large net positive for me.
Holding a large % in cash has also been a net positive. I have been able to side step a lot of damage.
The last time I chased a winner and lost, of course, was in the middle of January.
Took 2 big losses when stops were placed to tight. I now realize these positions were far to large.
Averaged down on 10 trades with mixed results. Basically a wash.
This past week I was only net + 3.3%.
Took a lot off the table late Friday. Hoping to re-enter on an early pull back Monday morning. Of course, that all depends on 60 minutes. Frankly, I don't expect any fireworks.
Positive and negative comments by all greatly appreciated.

Where you were....

Where you are [as of 03-06-2009]...

Where you are going ? ? ?

Road Map ----> http://tinyurl.com/cm5hnj

Are we there yet? ----> http://tinyurl.com/aljtpk

[Just a little Sunday fun]

proudPapa — "I'd add that the house bought year or two ago for $370K with equivalents being sold for $300K will likely not see a true market value of $370 again for many, many years."

Which is only a problem if you want to or must move. If, as Rick Santelli pointed out, you bought the house to live in, the current market price is not relevant.

But even if you bought it to live in, what if you were coaxed into a loan you couldn't afford, paying a fraudulently appraised value to inflate brokers/banks commission, and are now burdened by excessive monthly payments? Sure you bought it to live in, not as an investment, but you were sold the hype that prices always go up, i.e. house prices and more importantly labor prices (wages).

The hype is now exposed as a lie. The house wasn't an investment, but it is now a burden. I just think people have to be willing to put their family first and walk away if it's the right thing to do. Who gets screwed? The banks or MBS holder. True, other houses on the block get marked down in value and unfortunately, many of them will need to evaluate their own situation and possibly make the same decision.

In the long run what will happen? House prices will crash, a lot of houses will sit empty, investors will buy them from banks for cheap and rent them out at reasonable rates. People who walked away will be able to rent for far less than what their mortgage payments were, and eventually maybe buy a house with a reasonable mortgage.

The real problem is that it's a chain reaction and really almost no one will escape unscathed. That's what govt is trying to avoid. But rents/mortgages need to be inline with wages, which seem to be dropping, so govt will ultimately fail in my opinion.

First rule of panic is to panic first. Why throw another dime more than you have to into banks coffers by paying an outsized mortgage? Save those dimes, find cheap rent and prepare to start over on more solid footing than people who wait, hoping for some solution from govt.

[edit: Bill said in his Saturday review, "When you have an open mind and no preconceived notions, it is much easier to get into rhythm with the market, seeing the impulse moves before they happen, no directional bias to cloud your judgment." That sounds suspiciously like awareness.]

Yes very much so :) its very Taoist also.

Hi Grym

The way I teach this

We each view the world from Inner truth (from our heart) and Outer truth all the larger outside universe shaping us from outside in.

The two balance each other out to give us form / shape.

So your thoughts are also correct in that you are considering outer truth. I find it simpler to work inside out since you can control and know your own heart. It's a bit harder to work outside in (consider the masses of people) since more variables and sources of misdirection are involved.

ProudPapa - "In the long run what will happen? House prices will crash, a lot of houses will sit empty, investors will buy them from banks for cheap and rent them out at reasonable rates."

Or, entire "targeted" neighborhoods could be bought in large blocks, completely dismantled and/or converted for uses TBD by the new investment firms.

Mark

I hear what your saying too... Here is something that we could and should consider which in fact is not a warm and fuzzy feeling.

It is almost apparent that our economic growth for the past 20-30 years has been based on nothing more than shuffling paper... right? We produced nothing more than debt and military expenditures (i am a military guy by the way).

Our growth of shuffling paper, attracted capital from abroad the world. This capital allowed and help fuel out GDP growth and of course our population was growing, both organically and from immigration (legal or illegal it still grew).

This growth of capital and also with population, required more social service jobs to be created.

Now back to your comment..
"Yes, I know it is going to be hard, but we must take all of the pain right now, on my watch. Sorry Firefighters, teachers, Police officers, pension funds, college endowments, charities, 401k holders. I know this is not your fault. But all of your holdings are soon to become worthless."

Here is the problem with our society. For some gosh darn reason, the river only goes one way, down stream. This isn't helping any and what I mean is those firefighters, teachers, police officers got their jobs because of the 30 year economy of shuffling paper. Maybe that isn't a direct reason but in terms of capital inflows and distribution/creation of wealth. The opportunities they got could be derived from economic growth of shuffling paper. In terms of those employees of the state, have they offered to take a pay cut? (some are underpaid, yes I/we know that)... I have heard that, instead it is either give us money to employ our employees or we will be upset. Very valid reason to be upset however aren't we all in this together?
We must realize that the river doesn't alwasy have to go downstream.

As far as the Pensions, endowments, charities and 201k holders. We all got burned by this, no more bickering. Calpers speculated on real estate at and near the top. Endowments thought that the LBO and alternative investment arena was as great idea as it out preformed equities late after it crashed. The run up from the late 90s and from 03-07 wasn't based on true growth of an economy.

One of the ways that will help us get out of this mess is realize this... Just because things yesterday seemed grand and good does not mean that we need that same grand and good feeling for tomorrow.

We peaked, unfortunately the ride to the bottom is much faster than the top. Prices, wages must go down, sacrifices must go up.

That message is about the last thing that TPTB are telling us... No leadership, none. Instead now they are telling us things aren't that bad and everything is actually better than we thought. Of course we will have a false dawn but math will eventually rule. 1 and 1 always equals two. Wall street has hid that answer from us for a long time, in a matter of time they won't be able to get away with it.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&po...

Mark- How can you argue with +9.12% when the SPY is -16%?

Cash has been a winner, so you made the right move there-> side-stepping hits to the portfolio is no different from side-stepping hits on the field- ensures longevity.

Averaging down versus averaging up- I know there are strong opinions either way. It works for me most of the time, as (a) I normally begin averaging in on extreme negatitivity, (b) am quick to exit on strength, (c) limit position sizes, and (d) generally play sectors [where the odds of recovery are much higher] rather than single stocks [which may never recover].

I agree with your take on the highly-anticipated interview-> it's already been filmed, for crying out loud. Any significant revelations have already been priced in, probably at the expense of a few phone calls and a few hundred thousand dollars. How do I know? I have faith in human nature.

They won't open for me either. I get an error message of "A number is out of range".

Hmm, I'm only half way through the weekly review, and I must say it seems to have the most negative undertones I've seen in a while. Bill has often stated he has a glass half-full, but this snippet sounds kind of bleak to me:

"Short-covering, my friends, can make a bad market look awfully good. Until it doesn’t."

NYU- Did this work?