[6:14am ET] Royal Bank of Scotland’s Stephen Hester appears to be cut from a cloth different from the typical bank CEO, which I find refreshing. He argued today for “greater transparency”, says the bank’s first half results were “poor”, opines that economic conditions will be difficult for the next couple years, that the RBS internal situation “will be an arduous journey, a marathon, not a sprint”, and that management has decided to vastly downsize the bank, substantially cutting money-losing non-core assets over the next three to five years.
The stock on the London Exchange immediately tumbled -17% from about 53.5 pounds to a low this morning of 44.5 pounds, before recovering somewhat. In NY, RBS (new ADRs) closed Thursday at 18.29, but fell -15.3% in after-hours trades to 15.49 (at 5:11am ET).
Perhaps Hester’s honest assessment will put a damper on the high-flying Financials. Then again; perhaps not. We ought to see direction after the US Employment Report is published this morning. Regardless of the data, though, I’m sure the spin masters for Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) have already written the script, which will impact the initial trading results.
We may have seen a short-term cycle top put in for the S&P 500 yesterday at 1008.0. Stay tuned.
Comments
A lot of sickly charts. Wake up call?
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/08/heads-or-tails-...
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.
Re: Vad - some clarification on your HIG trade please.
Les,
reposting reply to your #40426
1. That news item crossed the wire real time. Here is full text:
Thursday, August 06, 2009 9:28:12 AM
The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc Completes discretionary equity issuance, notes it raised $900M, up from $750M anticipated prior
- The company sold 56,108,703 shares of common stock under the plan at an average price of $16.03, for total gross proceeds of $900M. The Hartford intends to use the net proceeds from the program for general corporate purposes, including the possible repurchase of outstanding debt.
2. HIG gapped up long before this crossed the wire. I don't know whether this particular news served as a factor to a further move or not.
3. Trading decision didn't have much to do with news. It was typical Open Break setup - something I play for many years. Key to looking at HIG in a first place is this comment:
[09:21] {Threei} so... what's our next AIG?
[09:23] {Threei} this kind of moves rarely happens in vacuum... traders start looking, and usually find, the next name to run in a similar fashion
4. There is nothing arcane in it, really, it's just a complete structure of the play manifested in two price levels :) It simply means:
- break of 17.50 is a long trigger,
- 17.35 is support to place a stop under.
- If 17.35 is broken before 17.50 is, a trade is invalidated.
- This gives us 15 cents initial risk which leads to exit criteria:
- if we are scalping, 1:1 risk/reward ratio will be reached around 17.65-17.70
- I alerted that this trade is capable of more than scalp, so we held or partialed out, for the eventual exit above 18 which is 1:3... not bad for 3 minutes work...
You can see how those two numbers define whole trade, with entry, risk management, exits - right out of the textbook :)
Weekend reading
I am 100% CDN cash and not sure where to invest my money right now. Knowing that I may need to get my hands on it in the near future makes me very risk adverse. I am doing a lot of reading. Besides going back to Bill's book for a more in depth re-read, I found this thought provoking article that I think would be a good weekend read. Cheers
http://www.esquire.com/features/dean-kamen-1208
Here comes Dean Kamen on a Segway, zipping down the hill of his private island like something out of a Bond movie. He floats past his private helicopter. Past his amphibious landing craft. His lighthouse rises up behind him. He's wearing his uniform, the one he wears whether he's tinkering with an engine or visiting the White House: work boots, blue jeans, and a short-sleeved work shirt. He's fifty-seven but still skinny as a ten-year-old, with a lean face and full head of Superman hair. He wears a dead-serious expression as he's perched up there on his electric gizmo, even looks a bit regal, which is sort of appropriate when you consider the rules of his alternate universe -- on his tiny private island off the coast of Connecticut, he's not just the man who invented the Segway and the stair-climbing wheelchair called the iBOT and the first portable dialysis machine and a new water filter called the Slingshot that could literally change the world, if he could only get the damn world to cooperate. He's also Lord Dumpling, leader of the Empire of North Dumpling. Dumpie to his friends. He sort of seems serious about this, in a whimsical way, and now Lord Dumpling sweeps right by on his royal scooter, heading down to the landing to greet his guests from America.
He has seceded from the United States, you see, having notified the president himself, and Kamen's vision of better living through technology is under assault from the usual gaggle of small minds.
Re: Vad - some clarification on your HIG trade please.
Thank you Vad, that clarifies the mechanics of the trade including risk management well.
Yes, your "next AIG" comment was noted. I was perhaps thinking that the news release triggered a move/or your anticipation of a move.
Good job numbers I see. SPY up since I'm back
... pushing through resistance or fading at the start?
edit: +70 pre market. I'll take that as a serious upward momentum possibility.
$ up and futures up this AM
Weird. Something is going to give. Jerk reaction on employ numbers? vs another melt up? Looks like I will get stopped out.
Not over till it's over
This has been some rally. Four weeks and counting.
It's funny how the bear blogs are handling it:
(a) The employment news could have been 'worse' (ie, 'better').
(b) It's not the open that counts, it's the close.
Whatever, man.
Re: Not over till it's over
Never fear, people. The market is waiting for me to go long before it collapses. I'll let you know when I make my move. ;)
American Tourister/ Timex
Remember the TV commercial where a gorilla bashes an American Tourister suitcase inside its cage? Or the Timex slogan?
'Bears take a licking and keep on ticking.'
What a way to spend the summer!
Hope you didn't buy CNB at the open CP - it faded good
thinking about an entry. Waiting to see SPY's move.
Volume's there, but taking the short side.
EDIT: forget CNB CP. Bad signals at present.
Joker
If you still remember what the Joker said in Batman the Dark Knight..
"madness is like gravity, u just need a little push.."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0Pz4hFPEAA
Then the market will be off the cliff....
ERY, SPY
Out of ERY @ 17.66, covered SPY. NO pizza for the kids tonight.
2nd....
Watch for the opening gap reversal. Lot's of bullish animal spirits but it's waning....see UUP/gold/goldman. Think we rally into strong $USD?
Me thinks not.
This market reminds me of a 17 year old....a lot of energy but not well directed.
Airlines
UAUA continues to rock - still long. Based on my analysis of their fuel hedges, liquidity (which was the main bear argument) is improving for UAUA as oil prices go up. The primary reason being a chunk of puts they sold at appx $100 as part of a collar. Obviously that end up very poorly as prices crashed to $35 and forced UAUA to post large cash collateral - collateral that will be returned as oil prices rise. They also but additional hedgin on near the bottom that is having a positive effect.
CAL announced a planned share sale to raise capital last night, which chopped the stock from about $12 to $11 in AH. I stared at it this morning and debated whether I should average some more shares in at premarket levels around $11. Shoulda Woulda Coulda but I don't like to average down. The good part is the stock is back up to slightly below yesterdays close.
Re: Not over till it's over
(C) Eventually they'll be right.
Re: Joker
gc- Flip the charts upside down, and the joke has been on the bears.
Re: Hope you didn't buy CNB at the open CP - it faded good
Les - "forget CNB CP. Bad signals at present."
Oh yes, but the hot momma will be GFG.
I've sworn off trading these hot potatoes....
Re: 2nd....
Craig- Good point. It's not the bullish animal spirits I'm focused on, it's the refusal of the bears to give in. Is it Remember the Alamo or Custer's Last Stand? What's wrong with coming out with their hands up and throwing their guns down? They can do the prison break later.
The Wizard has Spoken (Stay Tuned)
"We may have seen a short-term cycle top put in for the S&P 500 yesterday at 1008.0. Stay tuned."
I'm not counting on an S&P rally, when does Europe close ~ 12:00?
USO
Chickenpookie
I do remember correctly you were short oil, right? If so note the bottom of this chart. OIH [to me at least] is leading USO. See where OIH last crossed and is now heading downwards and USO is now following [-0.66 so far today]. I increased my DTO holdings today.
http://tinyurl.com/mm758d
Re: 2nd....
I don't care what bears or bearish blogs say. I just watch the darned markets and key portions thereof. Luckily those clowns don't run my $$$!
UUP climbing (ala bill's call), GS stuck in the ditch spinning the tires, gold falling inverse to $USD, strong RSI's. Notice how TLT pulled back and is now reversed....
I'm also noticing how schizo the financial press is, one minute Obama is ruining the country and has a peek at the numbers, the next he is better than sliced bread and the numbers are wonderful. What a bunch of self serving bullshit.
They should all get MD's as spin doctors.
I do think the bears are frustrated and sooner or later they will get their way, but i'm not timing it.
Edit: One fly in the ointment could be the FED killing the $USD....
Cara 100 Update (Final)
JCP - numbers raised at Goldman to $31 from $29. The retailer is experiencing positive trends in woman's apparel and benefitting from the Southwest region. Estimates for FY09 raised to $0.92 from $0.88. Maintained Neutral rating.
KSS - target raised at Goldman to $55 from $50. The co. saw an exceptional benefit in the Southwest region as they continue to capture market share from Mervyn's. Estimates for FY09 raised to $2.92 from $2.78. Maintained Buy rating.
Re: USO
Great chart Bev, thank you. I had thought about selling the SCO but I think now I'll wait and maybe add.
check out the soft porn on Dr. Ron's site....
I mean the charts.....LOL!
FTWR
Benchmark = 0.64, the price is too high for this bird...
Re: USO
Chickenpookie
One last chart. Check out OIH, a lower high and relative to the S&P [lower chart] not doing very well. If USO lags [per my last chart] then you and I should be ok on the short side of oil for the time being. Of course the USD is a critical indicator that I watching also.
http://tinyurl.com/lnrepv
Re: check out the soft porn on Dr. Ron's site....
Ripped from the Australian Public Broadcaster, the ABC. Your taxpayers money hard at work. ;)
Got out of FIG with lunch money. Back to the pool.
ciao.
My take on where the market is going
I think we're going back to pre-Lehman numbers. I think 1150 is not out of the question. AIG earning a profit and beating estimates is the nail in the coffin for bears in my opinion.
Off Balance Sheet, Out of Mind
How does government avoid mention of, as Shadow Stats reports, $66trill in US obligations? Change the accounting rules??
For one thing, the annual budget deficit supposedly refers to the difference between government receipts and outlays. But sly politicians sometimes remove a spending item from the regular budget and then bring it back as a supplemental appropriation. Supplementals are real costs that add to government debt, but they don't get counted in the reported deficit. For example, during fiscal 2008, the federal government’s net operating cost (the government’s “bottom line” – the difference between revenue and cost) was $1,009.1 billion, but the budget deficit was reported as “only” $454.8 billion.
But it gets much worse....
http://bit.ly/3VviBW
HIG
on the back of my beliefs that we're gonna see pre-Lehman levels in the market, I bought HIG September $15 calls at $4.40 today. I bought a solid amount of them. My thinking is that the whole insurance sector is going to get bid up significantly just like they were bid down last fall. HIG was one of the worst ones. I could easily see them getting to $30 in the next month. The company earned $1.90 after adjustments in the past quarter. They blew away estimates and next year's estimates of $3.5 will have to be revised up.
(Yes, I'm drinking the Koolaid)
Another $10.7 Billion For Fannie Mae (FNM)
For those who want to know how much worse that housing market is getting they need look no further that the quarterly results of Fannie Mae (FNM). The mortgage operation lost $15.2 billion and will need another $10.7 billion from the government to continue.
The primary reason for the loss is that 4% of the loans that Fannie Mae owns or controls were delinquent, up from 1.4% a year ago. Based on that data, the government’s bailout of Fannie Mae and its near-twin Freddie Mac (FRE) is not nearly over. Taxpayers have put $85 billion into the two companies, and that tab is about to go much higher.
http://bit.ly/Xb1Sg
Re: My take on where the market is going
Yes, I don't think the thrashing stops until there's total destruction. I think the bears are adding fuel to the fire, so you could say it's total self-destruction.
Craig- I understand your point. I'm simply an observer here, and I've noticed that calling the moves recently has been as easy as calling the moves at the craps table. I'm not betting on the dice, I'm betting against the kind of luck written all over the faces of the few/many who would have no luck at all if wasn't for...
DrDover- SRS has rolled over
You've been vindicated.
Yen
Been paper-trading options starting last week as I slowly try to expand my tool-box. Crazy positive results on some deep out-of the money put options based on my study of the long term Yen charts. I think it will be a LONG time before I trade these things comfortably - too fast for this old turtle. :P
The final straw
Wanted to short QQQQ at 40.05 but no shares. I need to dump Scottrade. Is IB a good broker to use and do you find they have enough shares to short? Thanks.
[BTW 1014 was the .382 Fib mark]
2nd going long?
2nd,
You have been right about the direction of the market recently. With the conviction you have I would think you would be adding some long positions. Are you going to do that?
Re: 2nd going long?
Hell, no. I'm going to stay on the roof, watch it end, the quietly walk down the back steps and grab some lunch.
Re: The final straw
Bev,
I use IB and I have never had a problem locating shares to short on any stock - not to say it doesn't ever happen, but I think they must have a much larger account base from which to source shares.
It's pretty strange that you couldn't source any QQQQ shares on Scottrade considering how liquid it is.
Plus trade fees are much cheaper on IB.
Re: The final straw
Bev- Seriously, I think they're doing you a favor.
Re: The final straw
BillySundance
I plan on moving then...may take a little time but I have to do it before the fall plunge
Re: Airlines
What a massive shakeout this morning on CAL, only to have the market eventually cheer the new share filing. I guess its being interpreted as positive that they are able to raise capital and it will insure them against any liquidity issues come next year. Now trading nicely above yesterdays close.
Re: The final straw
2nd
I know you think it will go much higher. But I am in the camp of a correction first. Maybe not be a big one, but there will be one.
-Everything is truly overbought.
-Next week is the week before OPEX week which tends to be negative.
-Dollar is holding its own this morning.
-We hit the .382FIB mark on the S&P500 from the March lows earlier.
-Elliotticians see an expanding ending 5th wave diagonal forming now. Prechter’s [http://tinyurl.com/boqwqr ]describes ending diagonals:
"A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where it began and typically much further….
Fifth wave extensions, truncated fifths and ending diagonals imply the same thing: dramatic reversal ahead. At some turning points, two of these phenomena have occurred together at different degrees, compounding the violence of the next move in the opposite direction."
Ture... like all trades there is a risk of it going the opposite way. But if this goes higher it will not rocket up and I'll have mental stops set. But if/when this goes down and I believe it will, then I want to be positioned for it. It will most likely happen fast and be over quickly. Then we will start the next big [final] wave up. Just my thoughts and plans.
Up on the roof with 2nd
I've had a decent morning, rode the trades I posted the other day, GOL, CHS for 9% gains, took a little grief on my TLT trade, but overall positive.
now out and on the roof with 2nd....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MopbhuZ2Bh0
Enjoy!
forgot GSS: Will take my wife out for a nice lunch on my AM GSS trade.
Could have made more taking more chances on GLD but you can't catch them all.
Re: The final straw
I remember reading an article in January that showed a table of the 2008 performances of various investment predictions (strategies?). e.g. Dow Theorists, Value, Graham, Small-cap, etc. Elliot Wave Theory was, hands down, the worst 2008 performer. Did anyone see that article? I'll try to hunt it down again.
Michael Steinhardt's perspective; der Spiegel's
No brand-new ideas on the wall st. pig-out, but he DOES put it together differently, as a now-detached former insider from a less corrupt era. Also, you get a peek at the menagerie on his estate:
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/michael_...
Also, Germany's der Spiegel provides a well-researched, and cynical (IMO German cynics are the world's most accomplished!)of the emerging global oligopoly of winners within HB&B:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,151...
stopped out from shorts
at a loss this AM. In retrospect, yesterday or before the open was the time to get out. I overslept a few hrs, as usually.
If this almost perfect setup with higher dollar did no significant damage, no point of playing on a short side. I turned and got UNG at 13.31 as it retraced and holding strong in the face of firmer dollar. Anyone following uranium or PNPFF? Thinking about getting back in.
Re: My take on where the market is going
TOF - "I think 1150 is not out of the question. "
We might make it there today, sheesh!
Deutsche Sees 48% of All US Mortgages Underwater in 2011
http://tinyurl.com/nolam9
Re: The final straw
Mackinaw
No, I hadn't seen that article, but I can believe it. EW truly is a subjective interpretation. Some folks take it to far, down to what I call the sub atomic level. But from a general over all view of the market movements, I personally think there is something to it. To me it is just another indicator which I look at, like the fibonacci retracement levels.
Fortune on upcoming bank bailouts
Fortune writer expects hundreds more bank failures to come, with opportunties for new buyers to extract loan guarantees from guess whom (US Gov't)
http://money.cnn.com/video/fortune/2009/07/31/f_sl...
Anybody know a retail fund which invests in buying busted banks?
Bears
Are jumping on the roof of my station wagon, trying to get at my peanut-butter sandwich.
What a way to spend the summer.
Oh my God...The bear has a Bic lighter and he's trying to start a forest fire...Man, this flies in the face of all accepted notions about forest fires.
Now I'm pouring the bear shots of Wild Turkey and he seems to be calming down......
It must suck to be a bear.
We are all fighting the last war, aren't we?
Bev
Your POMO observation was correct. The settlement on the funds was today. Market results confirm.
Dan
Re: Fortune on upcoming bank bailouts
Check out the weasels at Government Sachs or PIMPCO, am sure they will profit from the equity/debt demise of the fallen banks via a fund.
PHM
Many of the home builders have been ramping up in an uninterrupted straight line advance. The odds favor a pullback, or at the minimum some sideways action to work off the overbought conditions.
http://chart.ly/hw8tec
Re: The final straw
I've tried to understand it a few times over the last couple of years. One problem I found was that I couldn't find definitive online (free!) sources for i) learning what it is and ii) following current authoritative interpretations and discussions. It's certainly not something I'd be willing to spend a penny on. As you say, it's another indicator. Any suggestions, Bev? (and no luck yet finding that article I mentioned)
Re: Fortune on upcoming bank bailouts
This is hilarious! I'm sure government sachs and Pimpco are IN the room, (or OWN the room) so no doubt you're right!
Re: Bears
Careful Shark, Boo Boo is a mean drunk....Yogi is an enabler, what with stealing the pic-a-nic baskets and all....
Re: Bev
danf556356
Dan see attached for next week.
Re: Bev
Thanks. Looks like naxt two weeks should be explosive.
Dan
Re: The final straw
Mackinaw
I am a novice at it myself. I understand Prechter's book [see previous post for link] is regarded as the bible for the Elliott Wave Principle.
But assuming that there is something to this principle....
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle]
then what could happen shortly [after we complete what they call this P2 wave up sometime in the fall] could alter the face of our country. They are talking about a Grand Super Cycle Correction which has its start sometime in the early 1700. In other words you will see the mother of all drops. Will make the one in 2008 look like a walk in the park. Some forecast a low in the S&P @ 400. So they say.... But I remember in 2007 and 2008 people talking about rallies back to 14000+ and all of a sudden we at 666 on the S&P.
Canada's Harper to visit Obama at the White House in September
President Obama will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Harper at the White House on September 16, the White House said on Friday
http://news.bnonews.com/ssrj
SCO Off with a cheeseburger
And it's off to the Rainbow room for lunch with
Yogi and Boo Boo...
Re:
double post, corrected
Re: Bev
Re: Bev
Submitted by danf556356 (11 comments) on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:20 #40493
Thanks. Looks like naxt two weeks should be explosive.
Dan
Explosive up ... or down? G
Re: The final straw
At the blog linked below Pretcher has a 45 page e-book available as a free download. I haven't checked it out because I haven't been that interested in EW. (free offer good until Aug. 10)
http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com/
S&P run up
More power to this market than expected. Intermediate and long-term upward momentum still intact despite pull-backs in many of the short-term charts.
Careful, Uncle Buck making his comeback
passed 79.00 today.
http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=...
hmmm could he stick around for the weekend and trash the party Monday morning?
Re: The final straw
Bev
"then what could happen shortly [after we complete what they call this P2 wave up sometime in the fall] could alter the face of our country. They are talking about a Grand Super Cycle Correction which has its start sometime in the early 1700. In other words you will see the mother of all drops. Will make the one in 2008 look like a walk in the park."
They have been talking like this since the early 80's, the catastrophic plunge is right around the next corner etc etc etc.
They have absolutely perfect hindsight and everything they say gets readjusted to fit. It's all dog yuk.
Re: Bev
G
If you believe the data, it could be up. How's that for hedging.
Dan
Go with the flow,
The trend is your friend and I'm not stepping in front of this train, I'm preparing to show the conductor my stub.
SRS for spin @10.99
............
edit- that didnt take long out @ 10.78
I'm taking my ball home with me. LOL
sold some SRS at a loss
Today's better than expected unemployment report and today's rally in S&P above the 1008 level discussed by Bill after a two-day minor pullback signals a possible continued upside next week. So I just sold at $11 the shares of SRS I purchased at $13.35 a few days ago, so as to minimize (and possibly remove) the short bias in my portfolio that I created with that purchase.
Usually I give up shorting a rally at its very top, so the remaining bears should rejoice. :)
Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
Very few bought seriously (me included) at the last bottom in March. I still remember how many on this community, then talked about how broadly we would short a rally, especially one that would run close into four digits. Well, look where we are! We are as scared of shorting now as we were of buying then. From extreme fear to greed in five months, that market certainly is something special.
I have probably missed half (if not more more) of the rally between 666 and today's level above 1000. I am certainly not buying at this time and deeply investigating buying some puts on various instruments.
Re: Careful, Uncle Buck making his comeback
I noticed that divergence myself. You may well be correct. However, I was stopped out and not planning to reenter. But, I may want to go long on a pullback.
CP U invest in some interesting companies - You connected?
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) -- Colonial BancGroup said Friday it is under criminal investigation by the Department of Justice over alleged accounting irregularities at its mortgage warehouse lending unit.
what to short today?
So amid all the excitement about this move, I notice that there are a couple of sectors who are not participating: semiconductors (SMH), gold, and oil. SMH specifically looks to have a rolled over MACD and has come off an very high RSI. If you're gonna short something, why not beat on something that's showing weakness on a day that seems like everyone is breaking out party hats and tooting horns (to quote Mish).
I'm guessing semis don't like the stronger buck.
Re: Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
that low was the target I had back then per a chart posted, here is a possible reasoning for a high here. While I surely do not know, it just looks like firm resistence to me.
Re: Bev
If you believe the data, it could be up. How's that for hedging.
Dan
Is trading your day job or are you a closet politician? :) Kinda had a politically correct ring to it. I don't believe the data, but don't want to get run over either. Riding along in the slow lane until I'm sure what the road conditions are like up ahead. Not making good time, but won't crash and burn either. G
Re: Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
I remember as I was 100% long at that time. My mistake was to exit too early as I did not believe that we would go much over 800.
You have to consider that the first bear rally was 3/9/09-6/1/09. Then we had a mini correction lasting till 7/13/09 and coinciding with $ trying to pullback some (with poor results). Now, another bear rally started and will reach 1200 or so before the end of the year.
I'm done with shorting. It did not work well in 2003 and will not work well now. The only thing I consider shorting now is TZA. End of the year is when we need to reevaluate the situation. Stimulus money will be spent by then, and with oil retesting the old highs, some deflation can show it's ugly head again.
Re: Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
You were good. My target back then was 750 and I was early merely 2 weeks but it did cost a lot.
However, you may want to extend the chart to 2006 and we had similar high RSI readings in the late 2006, that did not prevent rallying till 2/2007.
I would be also interested to see what RSI showed mid 2003, as we seem to be replaying that script (inflation wise).
Re: Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
Funny, I think it was this chart, right? (see attachment)
I still keep it saved on my computer, among all other old and new charts.
Re: CP U invest in some interesting companies - You connected?
Les - No, but if the trend we've witnessed will repeat for mid-tier, I had an appetite for high risk, and hadn't sworn off banks, I'd jump on the opportunity at some point.
Aside: Remember to never mention having buried the bodies in your garden and Fridays are typically burial days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-q1H9N_u10
Re: Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
bellena
AAAAaaaaaaahhhhhhh..... What a beautiful chart [insert tear here]. Thanks for the memories.
Re: what to short today?
i'd be careful shorting here. if the semis are down then the best bet is to buy it. the trend has been that anything down with the market up will be up eventually...i wouldn't read too much into one day's action.
Re: Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
yes, that was it. Today is sure odd with the usd rally and markets in bull mode.
Jack Black, since the 2003 low the usd fell 107 to 70 as the dow went from 7200- 14200 so today seems much different if the usd makes a higher low since the 2008 low? Maybe that will be shortlived ? These intermarket relationships are just too complicated for me at times.
Re: what to short today?
davefairtex: SMH, gold and oil are not participating today because of the stronger USD, which is stronger not because the risk aversion is setting in but because the employment report is better than expected (Bill mentioned during the past few days that a worse than expected report will cause USD index to slide to 74).
I am not saying that shorting today's rally is the wrong thing to do -- after all, many of the remaining bears could have thrown in the towel today after the strong employment report (I sold some SRS today). I may actually buy these SRS shares back at the end of the day today.
Incidentally, I just read David Rosenberg's analysis of the employment report and he showed that about 100K added jobs were those that may not be present in the future reports (temporary bounce in the auto sector and hiring of the census workers).
Avago Technologies
still learning here but saw this
no positions
Avago Technologies shares immediately jumped 10 percent in their trading debut on Thursday, following the Singapore-based chipmaker's IPO
Hyatt Hotels going public?
another one i saw...
With a sterling balance sheet and no apparent business need to raise cash right now, why is Hyatt Hotels going public?
Interesting note
Has anyone see GS today? Down 1.55 as of this post. Strange that the market is rallying and GS is not. But then who seems to know what lies ahead better than GS. Wondering if the GS boys are doing a little inside trading today? [Just thinking out loud.]
Credit-crisis-outlays
http://tinyurl.com/kvf47w
Re: what to short today?
TOF - I'm just doing this based on the technicals. MACD rollover and a fall from a high RSI I figure has a better than even chance of working out. Especially if the buck keeps rallying, which the MACD on UUP suggests might actually happen.
I must say I am loath to bet against your advice, given your recent success. :) But I'm not doing this based on today's action alone. The chart looks like it's ready to head down...and I bought some calls to protect myself in case things go dreadfully wrong.
My bearish bets on the SPY aren't as horrible as they might have been because of the calls I bought to protect myself.
Chart of the Market in the Depression and Today
Scary stuff
http://thehonesttrader.blogspot.com/2009/08/chart-...
If that plays out - we could be in trouble...
back into SRS
Just bought back at $11 the SRS shares I sold earlier today at $11. I figured that the most *unexpected* thing the market could do now, after the strong employment report and today's rally which showed convincingly to the remaining bears that the economy is "improving", is to have a decent pullback. When that pullback does happen, I'll follow teamonfuego and buy calls on HIG so as to participate in the possible upside while having a limited exposure to losses (the price I'll pay for my call options).
NASDAQ 100 has it been in a
Bull market rally, or in a Bear market rally? Interesting chart.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdat...
David Rosenberg
David:
I haven't read Rosenberg's comments (do you have a link David?) but if he's correct (and he has been more on the ball through this mess than most economists) then doesn't it seem to follow that some of the hype of this upward move is based on a false interpretation of the employment numbers? I think that could very well be the case and that interpretation is just adding to the froth at this point.
Also the biggest HBB, GS, isn't participating in this rally today...hummm...so I'm watching the Sachsman like a hawk. Is it a "tell"? Don't know of course, but somethin'is atellin' me somethin'.
So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC reporters/guests
.... still counting..
Re: David Rosenberg
I found some recent comments by David Rosenberg Salty, here in this article by David Stevenson yesterday,
http://tinyurl.com/lfwq4r
There isnt a great deal of info but enough to get his general thoughts ,this is the most informative part quoted below:
Rosenberg reckons it will be "a one-quarter wonder, not unlike the 2002 first quarter experience with a flashy bear market rally, and a brief inventory and stimulus-led rebound in growth". As he points out, "there are still too many uncertainties associated with the outlook for the economy, corporate earnings, financial stability and fiscal rectitude (or recklessness is more like it)".
How rallies end
Not even pretending to be able to time it precisely, let me provide this conceptual blurb from today's trading comments:
[09:16] {Threei} we rallied for months with no positive news,
with extremely negatiove background noise,
and last week or two we started hearing all kinds of "recession is about over",
[09:17] {Threei} and now we are getting first signs of positive economic data.
Red day would signal strong reversal coming
[09:18] {Threei} I am waiting to see if it's a red day in order to get a confirmation of reversal
This is how it usually works:
put the bottom in and reverse to the upside when it's the darkest,
rally on no good news,
spike right before or on positive news,
put the top in and reverse to the downside as news become rosey.
Normal market cycle... happens for eons, yet every time catches public by surprise, and causes all kinds of screams about manipulation,
even though this scenario is of public's making in the same degree as smart money's.
For it to happen, both sides must fufill their roles:
smart money to start accumulating when news is the worst possible and market is destroyed,
and for public to wait with their buying until the news is at its happiest and market has rallied quite a bit.
Smart money did its part, now it's public's turn.
Re: David Rosenberg
salty, I get Rosenberg's writings from https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/Articles.aspx
I have to warn you, though, that Rosenberg has a definite bearish bias, and so it would be good to find a respectable bullish analyst as well and read them both daily.
Re: David Rosenberg
Thanks johnuk...and for the link too David
Re: David Rosenberg
Your welcome Salty
sign of a top....
Vad is right. My brother wrote me an e-mail wanting to get in, so we're very close to a top. He is classic chaser/J6P.
Re: How rallies end
I had a feeling, Vadym, that you would post something like this and the market would start going down :), and so I am glad I jumped back into SRS.
As 2nd_ave noted (and did a few times), sometimes one has to close the positions one is not sure about, step back and re-evaluate the game. After doing that with my SRS, I realized that the odds are in its favor now, when it *seems* most obvious for the market to go up after the strong employment report.
Re: How rallies end
Vad... Good insight... Bless you for sharing that. :-)
Could go both ways on
gtxi... Phase II & III Monday... prostate... 28% short... 10.5 float..
Re: How rallies end
So who knows how to get their hands on those graphs showing smart money/dumb money buying and selling?
No need to guess! Who has membership or ability to generate such a chart?
GS boys are dumping
Down 3.90
hoping for short covering pop into close
so I can get better entry on some puts
Dave
Re: How rallies end
David... I don't know if we are there yet... nearing, yes, but there is no clean signal on charts yet. News items and market commentators' outlook becoming optimistic is one component. Chart starting showing weakness on that background is another, and it's not there yet.
Such divergence will be our powerful "Information - Price Divergence" signal - cornerstone of tape reading.
Re: How rallies end
Yes, they have the weekend to lure J6P back in...the market is going up, up, up!
Edit: Wait until the 6 o'clock news tonight! You will see it for yourselves.
Re: Do you remember March 2009 and 666 on the S&P
Tbar,
how do we know that $ made a higher low since 2008? $ had an opportunity to prove itself back in June and failed. It can go down almost nonstop and no one can stop it short of Fed raising rates.
WSJ Money Flows - large block trades
Buying on weakness - BGZ 3X lge cap bear
selling into strength - QQQQ
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflpp...
Re: hoping for short covering pop into close
got 'em! QQQQ Oct $40 puts
Dave
EOD Stats
Aug 7th
Re: How rallies end
It takes a membership here: http://sentimentrader.com/ to get the smart money/dumb money confidence.
I built a system based on this and lost money. The general idea is good. But one needs fine tuning with top notch TA and tight risk/benefit mamagement. This is where I failed.
U.S. Consumer Credit Fell 5th Straight Month in June
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
Re: How rallies end
Attached is the most recent snapshot, dated yesterday (since Nov 2002). The spread is high, but has been higher in the end of 2003, 2004, and 2006.
Re: How rallies end
Vadym, darn it stop reading my mind! I have thought similar thoughts myself...does that mean I have arrived? I think not, but it is really simple and darn difficult for me to wade through. It is all about human nature. (c)
This just popped up on Drudge Report
"put the top in and reverse to the downside as news become rosey."
[Vad]
Could the top be in?
FTWR
The boys running that corner took JSP to the cleaners on the good earnings news, go figure....
Re: How rallies end
Les, jack black... IMO, forget about it. No membership will give you access to "sure thing". It simply does not exist. That's just not how it works.
It's a matter of observing, noticing patterns, learning to utilize them, controlling your risk, listening to the market, following it... No shortcuts there. Learn to do it or, if you don't have time/inclination - trust CTAB team to do it.
Re: This just popped up on Drudge Report
"Could the top be in?"
Maybe not, the bull trap spring isn't yet tight enough to break all four legs.
Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
Vad, What divergence indicator do you use and what would be the settings for day and swing trading. I know these are just tools in the kit and not the definitive answer to buy and sell. I promise not to cut off my arm or lose an eye with the indicator.
Bob
Carl Swenlin is bullish as ever
I have been reading his weekly colomns for a few months and he was almost always correct.
However, I came to the conclusion that now is another 2003 independently from him, seeing the higher low in miners and emerging markets in 3/09. It boils down to inflation.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/09...
Re: Carl Swenlin is bullish as ever
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/07...
Bottom Line: Overbought conditions in bull markets may cause more caution than usual, but higher prices can occur, even as the overbought condition corrects.
however, there is no technical justification to turn bearish at this time.
dated: 5/4/2007
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/07...
One thing I have been cautioning about is to not get too bearish, because many of our key indicators had remained bullish.
dated 9/21/2007
So how did a longer term investor fair if they took this advise? If we could go back in time would you be building bullish or bearish positions in your portfolio?
Re: Carl Swenlin is bullish as ever
5/4/2007 was NOT the time to short the markets. How do I know? Because I tried and lost. Markets rallied till mid July 2007. Also, 9/21/07 was too early to short. I started selling in Mid October and got that part right.
Is this the worst you could find about Swenlin? He had some bad calls. His batting average is 61% which is the second highest among publicly tracked advisors. No one can predict the future 100% of the time. Can you?
long term S&P corrected for inflation chart to consider
I don't know if posted here before:
http://www.dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-regressi...
Make sure to click on both versions: official CPI and ShadowStats CPI corrected.
Food for thought.
Re: Bev
I am neither. Mostly position trade options. I take all data as a point of reference and do not make "bets" on single points. I agree with you that the slow lane is the best route while watching the road ahead.
Have a great weekend.
Dan
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
bobbyo,
I don't use any. You wouldn't believe how simple and "empty" my charts are... Price, volume, simple 20MA and Bollinger Bands, end of story. And I can do without last two just as easily - sometimes I think I have MA and BBs only to be less ashamed of how "unscientific" my approach is, LOL.
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
You old time tape reader you. Well this brings about numerous questions, but I will only ask two. I assume you are using at least a price chart, unless you have some old time ticker tape, What type and in what time frame? candelstick, liner ect. Secondly when your scanner provides you with possible plays, what criteria do you look for that indicates a breakout. Volume increase/decrease at a consolidation point. Or put another way what clues you in that a breakout is coming.
Bob
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
I can already feel my arm being sliced off and my eye poked out. Why didn't I think of that? ;)
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
baz22,
Same thing on Bloomberg. White is black. Black is white. Exciting to watch.
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
I have it on good authority that this is the last known photograph of Vad's 3-screen trading platform.
(see attachment image)
Re: Carl Swenlin is bullish as ever
"Is this the worst you could find about Swenlin?"
JB,
I've been a subscriber to decision point for over 8 years now (great charts) and seen Carl be wrong more times than I can count.
If you want I can keep going.....here is another recent bad call:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/09...
"Bottom Line: The S&P 500 has decisively violated important support, and the most likely consequence is that prices will continue to decline, with 600 on the S&P being the most obvious level for us to see a bounce of any significance. While we could see a bounce before then, I think we should be more concerned that the decline will accelerate into a crash. There are still investors who have endured the decline from the bull market top and who were hoping that the 2002 bear market lows would mark the end of the current bear market. Now that long-term support has been clearly broken, another round of panic selling could be just around the corner."
March 6, 2009 one trading day from "The BOTTOM"
I respect Carl's work but always ask why he maybe wrong. Those reason have been laid out on this board so no need to repeat them
So I'm I putting much weight on his current chart....nope
Markets are very tough to call/predict one needs to be prepared for his opinion to be wrong. the market is Overvalued, Overbought and Overbullish so I'm not jumping on the bulls bandwagon, I'll leave that to under invested mutual fund managers chasing prices so they don't lose their job.
Lets see what happens when the 20 50 100 & 200 day MAs are tested & they always are
A Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc070716.htm
will Aug 2009 make this list.......very possible
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
"photograph of Vad's 3-screen trading platform."
Ah Ha! I knew he was using fractal patterning, had to be.... but it's an older version and the free upgrade should be installed...
Massiv short squeeze in FRE and FNM
FRE up +70% after hours: http://tinyurl.com/n7nr49
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
I thought he is a tape reader...
The best trade
is the hardest one to put on.
Re: Strange Commentary In Bond Related Markets
Credit Default Swaps Said Cheaper In BRIC countries:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&si...
(Nobody should be paying ANY money to 'insure' government debt. To whom? For what?)
Japanese long term bond yields show no sign of rising as of yet. Lots of doublespeak here too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive...
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
Ah! I see Olaf found a pic of my desktop computer!
Re: The best trade
Yeah, but at this point in the game, is it harder to short or harder to go long and chase? :-)
Re: Carl Swenlin is bullish as ever
Doesn't Hussman sound like a longer winded version of Bill's daily's lately?
Risk/reward isn't so favorable, we're waiting....
I have seen a few calls like this lately, even on Bloomberg, but not in the AM when Betty Bubbleblower is on. One head of investment for a major firm was saying they were waiting for the traditional fall pullback. Seems like I read that here a few days back.
Remember, the markets were signaling much the same thing before Hank was parachuted into the Bush admin and that extended the bubble for another year or so.
I don't think we will have to wait that long this time as the ammo belt is about empty, but I suppose we could go to negative interest rates and give money away for free, afterall it's only paper and they can simply print more. It's not like they don't have a record of doing so. Selling treasuries to back it up might be a problem though...
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
"Same thing on Bloomberg. White is black. Black is white. Exciting to watch."
They have the same flashing lights and sound effects in casinos. Tends to excite some people and make them forget they're about to plop down their hard earned cash.
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
Craig, it is a casino, and that's what I am concerned about. The louder the noise, the less people keep their eye on the ball. It's not just about prices now, but about common sense -- or the lack of it.
Re: How rallies end
" It is all about human nature. (c)"
TN_blogger- I thought I had the copyright on that ;)
Friday night....
Who's got some quarters for the jukebox. I'm starting to get concerned about the amount of time I'm spending on Dr. Ron's blog.
Re: Friday night....
I'll venture one, in the spirit of these "dangerous times"...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr7mu5RUNyk
(warning, kids should be ushered out of the room first)
Re: Friday night....
Mark- I enjoyed this one (fast forward to 7:13 in the clip):
http://tinyurl.com/mhxs4m
Re: Friday night....
Mac- When was the last time you saw a current music video? Scary, man.
This is what all young kids should be seeing/watching...
http://tinyurl.com/2kcuyu
Re: Friday night....
2nd- Is that Bull Hunter? If so, nice BH!
I've kinda expected a restaurant review or two. Nothing worth noting?
Re: Friday night....
Oh man; that one brings back memories, MarkW.
O.K. With only 3 days left in my summer holiday, this one seems appropriate...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZeeELBWkJc
Re: The final straw
"2nd, I know you think it will go much higher."
Bev- Not exactly. It would be more accurate to say that I don't think it can go down until the shorts give in. The problem as I see it is that each bear thinks he/she belongs to the minority of true bears who will persevere and win in the end, and that giving in is for ersatz bears unworthy of the title. Or something to that effect.
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
OK, now that everyone had their fun... :)
"I assume you are using at least a price chart, unless you have some old time ticker tape, What type and in what time frame? candelstick, liner ect."
Price chart of course; candlestick; for each stock I watch it's a 1 min intraday and daily.
"Secondly when your scanner provides you with possible plays, what criteria do you look for that indicates a breakout. Volume increase/decrease at a consolidation point. Or put another way what clues you in that a breakout is coming."
First of all it's a chart configuration. I have a few favs, they are described in Techniques of Tape Reading with all ifs and buts. Next of course is volume; while a stock moves within a consolidation range I want to see volume increasing on advances and drying up on retreats. Then it's market (or sector) directional support at the moment of breakout - this part is a bit involved, we have whole 45 minutes section on CTAB conference devoted to it. And of course risk control parameters - width of consolidation range, stock's liquidity...
Lastly, to address wild speculations about content of my screens... :)
Scanner: http://realitytrader.com/vad/Scr1.png (just a tad outdated, I have more windows currently)
Blotters, trading stats, Level II/chart for one stock, charts for NASDAQ-100 eminis: http://realitytrader.com/vad/Scr2.png
Chatroom, one more set of Level2/chart, executions, small window of trading stats (you can see some premarket partial sell of overnight position and first booked profit of $107 at 8:38 AM, lol): http://realitytrader.com/vad/Scr3.png
Two daily charts to both stocks on previous screens and module for hard stops entering: http://realitytrader.com/vad/Scr4.png
Easy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8ZeBog2yFM
Lionel Ritchie
So What
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEC8nqT6Rrk
Miles Davis.
Re: Friday night....
Mac- I'll cop to it. I loved that movie. Enjoy your last few days off.
Man, do I like a crazy variety of music...
http://tinyurl.com/masx4t
Re: Easy
That was some nice, easy listening, 2nd. Thanks.
How about something easy on the eyes AND the ears...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0U5JfGYx4c
IN Your Eyes
Man, would it have been fun to be at this one. I for one am making a pledge to myself to get to some more shows.
http://tinyurl.com/afc4be
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
I agree with you Bill. Believe me I'm listening to you (and the markets) and keeping my eye on my wallet. Unfortunately the regular Joe's of the world don't realize how HB&B attempt to blatantly manipulate them.
As predicted, my local news broadcasts had the expected pumping, "unemployment was down and the stock market closed up 113 points, blah, blah, blah" on the 5 o'clock news.
Surprisingly, Kudlow actually agreed with Robert Reich and suggested that government jobs and adding to depleted inventories with low demand from unemployed consumers wasn't a reason for celebration or calling an end to the 'recession' or for a real reduction in unemployment.
US$
I have my doubts this market can sustain a bear market rally much longer e.g. 30 days, if the dollar has turned the corner and started back up (A big if). The attached chart, while covering a relatively short period of time, shows the supposedly well known negative correlation of the US$ (UUP proxy in this case) vs the S&P 500 (SPX proxy). Except for a brief time in December 08/January 09 and again in March/April 09, when both the greenback and S&P rose, the Market fell as the dollar rose.
This past week, after being flat M-W, UUP was up Thursday and today +$0.27 to $27.48, and is +$0.32 in after hours trading. A similar pattern occurred 7/20-29, then a drop 7/30-31. Afterhours activity doesn't always carry through to the market open, but some of us on this blog have expected the dollar to change course. It certainly seems as if it is at least teasing the peanut gallery.
The March spread between UUP & SPX is close (~27% in March 09 vs 24% now), only reversed with SPX up and UUP down. Viewing this spread as a rubber band, it seems likely to me that is is under increasing strain and reversion to the mean is in order.
Re: So What/ Addendum
In 1983 I was living in a one-bedroom apartment on the second floor of a converted house on the University of Michigan campus. There was an older classmate in the basement apartment. Sax player/touring musician, ladies' man, and smart as a whip. He just could not outrun his past. The other side of this handsome, engaging, presentable professional was a misogynist and substance abuser fond of the two-toke action doobie, occasional eight-ball, and Harvey's Bristol Milk (the local liquor vendor thought I meant Cream until he found the Milk). Life, like trading, is all mental.
Keith Jarrett- The Koln Concert
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzqMJWlKMsY
Perhaps the most influential recording in my development as a pianist. I used to fall asleep to 'Part 1' of this album.
Re: Keith Jarrett- The Koln Concert
2nd are you a classical pianist? FT/PT/some time?
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
"Surprisingly, Kudlow actually agreed with Robert Reich and suggested that government jobs and adding to depleted inventories with low demand from unemployed consumers wasn't a reason for celebration or calling an end to the 'recession' or for a real reduction in unemployment."
True, however there will some day be a real reduction in unemployment and increasing demand and by then there will be few undiscovered gems to be had.
Re: US$
Johnny - How about a look at EUO then?
Re: US$
CP, do you mean EUO compared to the S&P or the US$ or another market? This is the first time I have looked at EUO. I can run a comparison tomorrow CP as it's past my bedtime.
Re: Keith Jarrett- The Koln Concert
No, man. Just a hack. What I do is write/play solo piano solely for my own edification. I just sit down and start playing whatever comes to mind, and generally end up exploring the nuances of an idea until I tire of it, which usually takes about an hour. That's it.
The only 'real' composition I've stuck with all these years is still a work in progress. 'Mill Street' is based on memories of my early years growing up in Wilkinsburg, PA. You can imagine what it may have been like from 1954-1961 for a young boy with parents who immigrated from Shanghai and Beijing. The most enduring image I have is of a 5-7 year old standing at the second floor window (we rented half of the second floor of a residence) staring out at the smokestacks along the river (I can't recall at the moment if it was the Allegheny or the Monongahela). It's amazing how much my seven-year-old reminds me of myself back then. So I may find the motivation to finally complete it at some point.
...
...
Re: So What/ Addendum/Bobby
2nd- Sounds all too familiar. I was working on a large Victorian in SF as the foreman, and my lead carpenter was Bobby. He had the same past as your classmate. One day when he was obviously hurting I asked him if he could use some help. I"ll never forget what he said. "Life comes easy to you, Mark. Breathing is hard for me, man." 6 hours later he died in a 12sf plastic portable toilet with a needle in his arm.
Re: IN Your Eyes
When I was a kid I went through a phase of asking for nothing but Perry Como record albums for presents...I guess that says it all. One of his classics, "It's impossible", was, perhaps, better sung by Shirley Bassey...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCtao5nm3Eg
and from the same show, I believe, another of my favorites, with some interesting editing...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D8abCoVXm4&feature...
Re: check out the soft porn on Dr. Ron's site....
Les - "Got out of FIG with lunch money."
I think if you play FIG you should check on the "preferred offering/conversion, whatever it was?" they made some time ago, I think it went for $5.50 so that might be the limit you're witnessing. I may be confusing this with another bank but I did have $5.50 in my head for FIG for some reason....
Summer.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfzPfwIg9HU
Re: US$
EUO looks like a better choice than going to cash if you think the $USD is going for a bounce, but it does have ultra characteristics so I would keep a close eye on that.
DGZ might be the other choice but may as well stay in $USD?
Vahevala
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpNKMJXfo5U&feature...
Only the Lonely
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ssNkJrmZ6g
Dream Baby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGFM1pY2dcw&feature...
For Les....
Les- Wake up. Special Beat Service is at your door.
http://tinyurl.com/5wf42m
In Dreams
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33Q61brJ9mc&feature...
Travelin' Super Group.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJWv3Xw5QrY
Re: US$
CP- I was watching EUO a few weeks ago, but damn, it's thinly traded. I would be afraid to get trapped. Coming from someone who holds RGBO, ADXM, that probably sounds crazy!!
Alright, you gotta see the graphics on this one.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ7EiCs77xw
Re: Alright, you gotta see the graphics on this one.....
Game over, Craig. You win! That's too funny.
Vivo Per Lei
Thanks for all the great music selections. Try this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IyYqJyc-zk&feature...
Squeaky Fromme gets parole......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OP0u9HUo1-Q&feature...
http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/08/05/squeaky.fromme...
Andrea Bocelli "Can't Help Falling In Love, live
One more
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XdP7MlxYPo
Re: Vivo Per Lei
T3d- I loved that. I'll embarrass myself, that was German and Italian right? I have a great childhood memory. My best friend up the block's Dad was from Germany. Every Sunday he would cook a HUGE meal for anyone who wanted to come over. Blasting German music for all to hear, dancing around the house, it was unreal. Man, I think we all need to dance a little more for the soul.
Horowitz, Moscow......
I have this disc and this man is spell binding.....always amazes me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qq7ncjhSqtk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv2oM5DE1Mk&feature...
Watch the audience.
Last one before bed...
Great selections tonight, all...
Saw these guys in Boston in 1982 and again in Montreal a few years later. I remember them as being very talented as well as funny. If Choral Singers aren't your bag you can skip over this one... an attempt to recount the entire history of the last 400 hundred years of classical music in about 9 minutes...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXhAz0DOpMU
Re: Vivo Per Lei
Yes, it is Italian and German, very angelic yes. My wife and I went diving through the back roads of the Czech Republic in, oh, 2003 listening and singing along to Bocelli cd's, what a blast that was.
If you ever get a chance check out the DVD, Andrea Bocelli Vivere, Live In Tuscany. It's something about his voice and those that sing with him, he just seems to bring out the best in others.
For Vad...Rachmaninoff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-umLy_5J3k&feature...
Re: Vivo Per Lei
T3d- Ordered and on the way. Thanks.
Re: US$
Mark - Yea you're right, I didn't look at volume but should have.
Re: For Les....
RE:>Les- Wake up. Special Beat Service is at your door.
Just awoke Mark. After seeing that I wish myself back to bed :P
Perhaps I was an old fogy even as a teenager. Your SBS was a bit too fast for breakfast listening. These guys were more my 80's taste:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VW0YLWWf2b8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8PwNopetmI4&feature...
Re: For Vad...Rachmaninoff
That's rather for my wife, she is a pianist... my tastes are simpler, like: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj3pd-a-js8
Re: For Les....
Mark you are all over the Map musically. I actually saw the English Beat Two nights ago. Great show. My 17 year old son went with me and we had a great time. I actually went into the mosh pit. I am thankful no major injuries. People all I can say is that dancing is good for the soul. I force myself to go see live music at least twice a month. I even go to the teeny bopper shows and it is amazing to see there is still a bunch of a dedicated youngsters making great music. Rock on,
Bob
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
Vad,
I really appreciate all your input. You have always answered every question I have asked. Thank you. I'm glad you like to keep it simple! Those four screens you have look complicated. I am lucky if I can place one order without making a mistake. I don't think I could multi-task like that. One last question before I order your tape reading book. Are these same set ups valid with a longer time frame for swing trading? I assume instead of a minute chart I could use an hourly or a daily chart for the same set ups. If so, could I still call myself a tape reader and not a chartist or technical trader. Tape reader just sounds cooler. Thanks again.
Bob
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
Wow Vad, you've gotta be suffering attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder to keep up with all those numbers flashing on your screen :)
I'm comfortable reading MACDh signals at the moment, so I went back over your HIG play on the Thursday for clues as to what could be seen with momentum.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HIG&p=10&yr=0&mn=...
There are signs on Wednesday afternoon that something could be on the cards for opening Thursday. Of course it helps to know that AIG had gone nuts Wednesday. I need to pay more attention to what are hot stocks from the posts here and monitor Stock Charts market analysis that NYUgrad is fond of looking at for sector wide implications. An after closing scan would help in this regard as well. JL is also useful for seeing which sector is hot for daytraders. Even Friday, as we were decrying the new top in SPX, JL was all over financials.
One can see that small movement on the MACDh indicator Wednesday closing was reflected in relatively larger movements in the stock, breaking out from the triangle that HIG had been channeled into. I've noted that hot stocks often don't go cold the next session, if that sector is still in play, so I keep them in a list for playing them again as (presently) paper trades. Unfortunately I didn't plug HIG into the list cause it had a stellar morning again on Friday. I did have a run with FIG with real money on Friday morning, as I noted JL was actively playing financials.
It seemed I backed the wrong horse as an initial positive momentum play quickly fizzled out and I was content to sell with just cents on the dollar. Mind you, putting 3 grand down on the table turns a couple of cents into a couple of bucks which I like to see (wow what could you make putting 25 G on the table for couple of cents profit?). After pussyfooting around with diversification I think I'll be concentrating firepower on one stock trades that I'm reasonably certain of in future. See attachment for the trade as I played it. I think that a momentum trade is just a graphic version of Vad's tape reading and as I show on the attachment divergence was turning neutral/negative fast, which warned me not to hang around. See the difference between FIG and Vad's HIG play on Friday.
You guys like music, what about stories, particularly anime?
http://www.dbz-zone.org/last_exile.php
A most enjoyable story I just finished watching. Always enjoy Japanese animation, although some of the content I download is bordering on soft porn and obviously intended for teenagers. I shrink the window and watch in a corner of the screen while the market does its thing.
If you like conspiracy stories, I thoroughly recommend the following:
http://www.amazon.com/Ghost-Shell-Complete-Season-...
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
Les: "After pussyfooting around with diversification I think I'll be concentrating firepower on one stock trades that I'm reasonably certain of in future."
Diversification is for suckers, but your other part does not sound like that great of an idea to me unless you are planning on scalping or day trading. If you plan for longer than a day positions in a single stock with a high % of your Port you are taking on enormous risk. One thing I have learned here from the professionals like Bill and Vad is that you need to think about risk first and foremost. In addition if you only have one pot in the fire you are going to pay too close attention to it. Overcooking and over spicing is always a danger with a one dish meal.
Did you rent that movie yet? I think i am going to have to watch it again. What a classic.
Bob
Re: Vad Your divergence indicator choice is?
you referring to "once upon a time?" Finished downloading it yesterday. Yeh I'll attack it during one of next weeks sessions.
Yeh Bob I was thinking of scalping or intraday trading when talking about hitting one stock.
Mind you, Ive thought about how to make money out of this next leg down, and cease floating from idea to idea (interesting, but as yet unprofitable) by hitting one stock for a short once the market is in a definite downtrend.
Perhaps Vad et al. might like to comment, but I'm thinking of taking Ford for a ride back to 1.50 or lower, without too much active trading on my part. Why?
Several Reasons:
1. Government intervention and cash bleeding special offers from Detroit are moving auto sales at the moment. Take that away and they've got zip in the way of power to interest buyers and will suffer a loss of future auto sales cause they're selling more now.
2. Jobs are the leading indicator of this recession, cause its the only way that consumers will help the economy. All the cumulative job losses until now means that consumers are less willing to purchase a new auto if they can maintain their present vehicle.
3. Ford was bleeding cash before the rally in March began. This has not likely changed, although an update on its capital raising efforts is important. The media was screaming "bankruptcy" before the rally began and understanding how they do business, they'll likely drag Ford and the other Detroit pair back into the gutter late '09, early '10 with their tawdry reporting, unless the economy and/or the market has turned around. The game is psychological and the media love to mess with our heads.
4. Financials would be great to short, but they have The Fed on their side. Detroit hasn't received this favoritism.
Active trading for me would be scaling in an out of Ford as it moves from oversold to overbought positions. It's a clear 3 - 6 month objective with a rough understanding of price objectives, subject to changing economic/market conditions.
Mark got me on to the idea with his wealthy contact who took BAC for a ride at $3. I'd like to do the same, but in reverse. If he had sat on BAC until the May top, thinking prematurely that the rally was finished, he was looking nevertheless at a near 5 bagger. Did he get out at the April top? That's a near 4 bagger.
I'm an über-bear and I don't think we walk away from the greatest debt bubble in history without further and significant collateral damage. I think Ford is ready to be screwed to the wall, and should be liquid enough to short as well, one would think.
Of course, one can imagine Congress panicking and putting the breaks on all shorts. That wouldn't surprise me one bit.
Still, just thinking about it at the moment.
Some interesting anecdotals on the Cash for Clunkers program:
http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/10747...
Look how cheap Chrysler had to make its car to move it, compared to the German and Korean purchases. Look at the people missing out on this program! I'd be curious to see if Washington relaxes the criteria in the future to keep the good times rolling.
Interesting discussion on the failures of EMH...
Efficient Market Hypothesis.
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo080709.pdf
Excerpt:
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has done massive amounts of damage to our industry. But before I explore some errors embedded within the approach and the havoc that they have wreaked, I would like to say a few words on why the EMH exists at all.
Academic theories are notoriously subject to path dependence (or hysteresis, if you prefer). Once a theory has been adopted it takes an enormous amount of effort to dislocate it. As Max Planck said "Science advances one funeral at a time".
The EMH has been around in one form or another since the Middle Ages (the earliest debate I can find is between St. Thomas Aquinas and other monks on the 'just' price to charge for corn, with St. Thomas arguing that the 'just' price was the market price). Just imagine we had all grown up in a parallel universe. David Hirschleifer did exactly that: welcome to his world of the Deficient Markets Hypothesis.
"A school of sociologists at the University of Chicago proposing the Deficient Markets Hypothesis - that prices inaccurately reflect all information. A brilliant Stanford psychologist, call him Bill Blunte, invents the Deranged Anticipation and Perception Model (DAPM), in which proxies for market misevaluation are used to predict security returns. Imagine the euphoria when researchers discovered that these mispricing proxies (such as book/market, earnings/price and past returns), and that mood indicators such as amount of sunlight, turned out to be strong predictors of future returns. At this point, it would seem that the Deficient Markets Hypothesis was the best-confirmed theory in social science.
Pretty heavy duty reading on how this market theory screws with investors and investing industry. I will have to read it a second time to let it sink in, but it is worth a read IMO.
Stop Loss Question
What is the best rule of thumb to determine a stop loss price for these 3x leveraged ETfs?
Thanks for your help.....
Bull case for Ford.
I agree Ford is a dog and overvalued, but there is literally a thousand crappy stocks that have gone on parabolic spikes the past month. Ford does have some real positives going for them.
1. Reduced competition from domestic rivals.
2. They have a line of Alt energy cars and hybrids.
3. Their product line has vastly improved from the s--t they were selling 1990 to 2005.
4. I think their CEO is the real deal. He is no Richard Wagoner.
5. Cash for clunkers is not a give away program?
6. Devalued dollar is good for Fords bottom line.
7. They have a presences in the emerging markets.
8.Market cycle will see a rotation into cyclicals.
9. Oh yea. The Recession Is Over! Right?
Re: Bull case for Ford.
agreed, but that won't save their sorry butts in another pessimistic leg down in the market. I was impressed with the tales of woe we witnessed approaching March, as it was my first time that I followed the happenings of a recession. I look forward to the media ripping into everything once again so that the pros can load up at the bottom.
The charts'll be guiding me this time. Leaving the fundamentals aside on a day to day basis. Certainly not going to go long now, despite the clunkers program. Ford has dropped below 70 but who knows which way we're going next week.
Re: Bull case for Ford.
My bear case for Ford is strictly technical.
Daily RSI: 66 and falling
Weekly RSI: 82
Monthly RSI: 72
In addition, there's a very serious resistance zone (on the Monthly chart) from 8-10. I'm going to guess there's an (F-150) truckload of people who got in there at 8 during 2007 and 2008.
Volume is picking up on the most recent downside days.
I'm guessing the upside risk is limited based on the amount of resistance.
MACD rollover hasn't happened yet, but it's looking troublesome.
Crisis = Opportunity
Did you ever feel like you missed the boat? After witnessing this last surge in just about every sector, numerous 10 baggers, especially in the small caps, I want to ask myself why. Why didn't I grab on to some of these back in March? What's the pyschology behind it and how do you get over the feeling that you want to kick your own butt? Is it possible to watch RSI's, overcome the fear of losing big, and take the "risk"? Some of these advances could have completely eliminated all consideration of HB&B, big brother, and any other crook, cheats, etc... and set most people up for life. Or is the only way just to dance the dance, takes your chances, and enjoy the ride?
Re: Carl Swenlin is bullish as ever
Milesquare,
I am generally more long term than most people here and I'm not "building a position" either way right now. I am long term bearish on the economy and have been for nearly 20 years. We are now seeing where I live exactly what I have expected since I began to see US manufacturing jobs exported in the mid 1980s.
• Lower spendable income
• Tax increases at all gov. levels
• Higher prices for imports (most things)
• Lower prices for domestic goods and services (good deals on several purchases locally)
• High unemployment (we're at 14.2%)
• More government
In the past year or so, I have noticed the same conditions spreading nationwide.
I expect bonds to be supported by any means possible for as long as possible followed by outrageous inflation and possible war (as a political way to divert blame).
I'm holding gold, (bullion only right now) cash and Treasuries-only funds (increasing and decreasing exposure between 3% to 4% on the 10-year UST.
In more than 40 years of investing I have never been less confident or less trusting and I am a born skeptic.
I am amazed by the many who still seem sanguine, but encouraged by the recent stories of town meeting outrage. Disgusted by nearly all politicians — including presidents of both parties and most media.
For some time I have seen us following the path of (formerly) Great Britain a century ago.
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
"Same thing on Bloomberg. White is black. Black is white. Exciting to watch."
CNBC can actually be funnier than the Comedy Channel (if you are not heavily involved).
Last night just passing by (sound off) Larry Kudlow was grinning and at the bottom of the screen it said, "US dollar is back as King!"
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
"Regular Joe's" have no money to invest. They have been sucked dry in the "safe" investments in their 401(k) company managed plans.
This market is thinly traded and mostly computers doing the buys right now, IMO.
The fund managers "must" be in during up moves if they want to keep their jobs. As we saw a year ago — when it plunges and they all go down— "nobody could have known it would (whatever excuse).
Re: For Vad...Rachmaninoff
Hardly simple my friend! I don't speak the language but I read the lyrics in English.....incredible. Similar to Dylan's 'everything is broken' but darker still. Broken things in theory can be fixed. In Visotsky's song there is deep beauty but even that is not right, hopeless. Thank you for sharing.
Re: So far today I've counted 47 Orgasims on CNBC ...
"CNBC can actually be funnier than the Comedy Channel (if you are not heavily involved)."
Agreed! LOL! Or if you've had a drink or two....Kudlow may have quit but he drives me to drink!
Re: Bull case for Ford.
RE:>My bear case for Ford is strictly technical.
strictly technical? Who are you kidding davefairtex? There's no greater über bear in this crowd than you :)
Thanks, haven't looked at it myself, and am in no hurry to engage, given this market's propensity to pull more rabbits out of its hat than a career magician, but when the time comes, I think it'll be an important "weak link" in the market to hit.
spx
Using rsi scan for # of spx stocks over 60 rsi14 for each of the last 35 days =323
and # of spx stocks over 70 rsi14 for each of the last 35 days = 151
On both accounts the number of stocks over 60 and 70 is lower as the spx hits new highs, divergence.Both rsi's look like hs tops forming.
Excel charts it out as per attachment.
Re: For Les....
Les-"After seeing that I wish myself back to bed."
Sorry to offend your sensibilities Les. Are you a little more awake now?
http://tinyurl.com/c4gwl4
Everyone have a great day!! Time to get out and enjoy this beautiful planet of ours.
Initial impressions of Ford in a weekly chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=W&yr=3&mn=4&d...
will look into it further, but if Ford is typical of SPX (haven't looked) then we haven't seen the end of the rally yet.
http://tinyurl.com/lmjec5
observations of weekly SPX chart. One notable feature. SPX NEVER leave the BB's when its moving in a positive direction. The markets were just as bullish I imagine in 2007 but it doesn't punch through the BB's upper band once. I'm curious to see if it can push hard next week like this week and leave its BB behind.
I remember predicting a drop a week ago. Will certainly shut my mouth to assumptions (I know what ASSumptions can make of me) and restrict observations to those ascertainable on a chart.
S&P 500 Volume
Moved to Saturday's Commentary...
Re: For Vad...Rachmaninoff...
Moved to Saturday's Commentary...
Re: Interesting discussion on the failures of EMH...
Les - I have a friend who is friends with Andy Lo who disproved EMH in his Doctoral Thesis at MIT. The head referee was the originator of EMH. Andy says that he got up half way through the presentation, pronounced that Andy's math was wrong and walked out. The other five referees let him finish. They then went back to their offices and discovered Andy's math was correct. That was the end off EHM for most, although the old guard will not let it go. Warren Buffet once said "if the markets were efficient he would be driving a cab."
Andy's website: http://web.mit.edu/alo/www/ Great academic Technical Analysis research on this site for those who are so inclined.
Paulson's calls Goldman TESTED ETHICS ,WHAT ETHICS???
If Mr. Paulson had ethics, Goldman Sachs would have been last in line to recieve help . In fact he would have exchanged the places of Goldman Sachs with either Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers, to prove he was impartial. http://tinyurl.com/nkafyo Bob.