Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Friday, Jul. 24, 2009

Thank you for the voice of reason Bill. All this recent hoopla blaming everything under the sun on high frequency trading gets tiresome and sounds like not much more than a strawman designed to mask the real problem.

Let me guess S&P will hit 1000 for the last dance
and last dance will ends when the music stop this Friday night...

looking for some puts opportunity...
or even short some calls

I have long theorized that the artificial shortages supporting retail diamond bubble prices should collapse. Maybe this is just the beginning.

"Warren Buffett to CNBC: Invest in Stocks Even At Dow 9000
Published: Friday, 24 Jul 2009 | 8:36 AM ET

Warren Buffett tells CNBC that the economy still isn't showing any signs of life but that doesn't mean investors should stay away from stocks for the long-term."

Seems like I remember his last couple of public calls being followed by moves in the opposite direction. Is that correct?

PT Raised:

BRCM - from $30 to $34 @ Caris & Co. Buy
MCD - from $62 to $63 @ Wedbush Morgan. Outperform

http://tinyurl.com/SPX-Upwards-Channel

don't know if its a legit chart but lets see what happens today.

Thanks to Jesse's Cafe Americain for a similar chart.

You can auto refresh these charts to keep an eye on them if you so desire.

Why did I start to invest? To make money.

If I have a choice of where I invest and a 1 year CD or bond is paying 3.5% and I choose to invest in the stock of XYZ and it goes up 10% in a day or a week I become a trader.

If a car dealer buys a car to re-sell it DOES HE HAVE TO WAIT a day, a month, 1 year to do whatever he wants to? Is there a law or a tax imposed on his sale if it occurs quickly after he bought it.

I lost too much money waiting for my investments to "make me money."

I have learned from this site that I "buy companies but I trade prices" and when "the price is right" I "come on down."

"Trade is my name and scalping is my game" and "do unto others as they would do unto you" comes to mind...my philosophy...totally agnostic with the market.
Joe

...

Yesterday I wrote -
"I had a stop on my MSFT at 25.25 that didn't get filled at the close. I had purchased these shares at 22.46 a few days back. I canceled my stop order and added another 300 at 23.38 after hours."
What I learned yesterday is that sell stops are not the almighty protection of capital. MSFT closed at around 25.50 yesterday but after hours it went way down after earnings announcement. Since my stop at 25.25 was only good during regular business hours the order didn't get filled. However, if I had not acted on canceling the order it would have executed at whatever price it was at the open. What if the opening price was $7.00? Instead I bought a few more shares after hours because I felt the sell off was a little overdone. After the open this morning I waited for 23.75 and sold all of the shares including the shares bought at 22.46.
I am back to cash having sold around 8 stocks for some decent gains over the past 3 weeks and am only holding some SLV. I believe as others have pointed out that the Fed needs to inject some fear so they can sell the bonds and keep a lid on the rates they have to pay.

The Allure of Outsourcing Financial Regulation
by Jesse's Café Américain

One has to be fascinated with the proposal by the Obama Administration to effectively outsource the regulation of US markets and the protection of consumers to the Federal Reserve, an agency that is owned by the industry which it would be asked to regulate.

It is especially interesting given the recent history of the failure of that organization to do its job properly, failure to engage in open and transparent dialogue about its non-core (non-monetary) operations, and continuing resistance to taking direction from the government in matters related to fiscal and legislative policy that would fall under its regulatory purview while asserting its independence.

Its almost surreal. I cannot believe anyone is taking this proposal seriously.

There are three reasons why the Obama Administration is proposing it and the Congress is giving it serious consideration.

1. The special interests, the banks, who are significant donors to the Democratic and Republican parties would like to have it since they effectively own the Fed, and Wall Street likes no regulation better than self-regulation.

2. Government enjoys outsourcing its responsibilities to outside agencies like the Fed, because when the lapses and failures come, it gives them a great opportunity for finger pointing and hearings to chastise the party that failed, and shift the blame for the responsibility for the failure from themselves to someone outside their organization.

3. Larry Summers wants to be both the chairman of the Federal Reserve and of the SEC and a proposed Financial Consumer Protection Agency to attempt to maximize his ability to manipulate and control the financial system. And Larry does not work for you or your interests.
Would you like to have seen Alan Greenspan as not only the chairman of the Federal Reserve, but also the head of the SEC and the Consumer Protection Agency for financial products?

What is being proposed amounts to a financial Star Chamber. It makes the machinations behind the founding of the Federal Reserve in 1913 look tame by comparison.

Has the US a shred of common sense and regard for democratic principles left?

I can't seem to find any update about that stolen GS algorithm. And the guy arrested, Sergey Aleynikov, is he still locked up? In fact, the media has been pretty mum on this as far as I know.

"Maybe he is a lawyer ;)"

You're probably right. He's already changed his name from BobG to BobJ.

'Partying with your friends versus raping a female. Wow. We sure are one backwards-assed hypocritical society, aren't we?'

Amen to that Sharkie...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHSH&p=D&yr=0&mn=...

SHSH, scanning for volume this morning. Found this tinsy winsy money losing miner who's 50 MA just crossed above the 200 MA. This appears to have garnered some attention.

It's a penny stock (boo hiss) but has been a sound laggard and I'm looking for laggards who will be sold by unscrupulous managers to greedy investors on the back of any action that may occur in gold this summer.

A 2 year chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHSH&p=D&yr=2&mn=...

I'll wait for daddy Bernanke to pull the rug on the POG next week first.

Oh, you mean Kobe syndrome. If you make enough cash for the corporate team then it get's swept under the rug. Swimmers don't make enough money and they don't have a corporate team and accompanying lawyers and PR snakes.

AMZN - target, estimates increased at Barclays to $83 from $76. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates lifted to $1.75 from $1.70 and to $2.22 from $2.10, respectively. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

AMZN - target increased at Bernstein to $90. Margins are growing despite decelerating North American sales. Market Perform rating.

BRCM - Downgraded at JMP to Market Underperform. $25 price target. Recovery momentum will likely peak this quarter.

BRCM - target, estimates raised at Barclays to $30 from $24 as 2Q results showed revenue above expectations. 2009 and 2010 ESP estimates lifted to $0.96 from $0.65 and to $1.36 from $1.12, respectively. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

ECA - target raised at Goldman to $54 from $52 to reflect lower debt levels, improved capital efficiency, and greater credit for improvements in the Horn River Basin and other resource plays. Maintained Neutral rating.

JNPR - Upgraded at Goldman to Buy from Neutral. The co. has some of the best long term growth fundamentals in CommTech as it has over 70% exposure to the high growth service provider routing market, share gains in the $15 billion Ethernet switch market, and a benign competitive and pricing environment. Increased it target price to $29 from $24

JNPR - target raised at Credit Suisse to $24 from $18 following improved visibility and valuation. Maintained Neutral rating.

He is apparently out on a bond that was higher than that set for Stanford, the guy running the multi-billion dollar ponzi, and has also been hit with a gag order. Obviously quite a desperado.

"Maybe he is a lawyer ;)"

No, just some poor schmuck (sp) that thought he could make a dollar on gold.

"You're probably right. He's already changed his name from BobG to BobJ."
2nd_ave:
I don't know what you are getting at. I believe since the start a few years ago I've been BobJ, never BobG!

Just a joke- Mrs. Gold would imply BobG, no? ;)

I just get tired of "news organizations" being promotional pundits. He's a likeable guy, but not an Oracle. The numbers are what the numbers are.

That's okay Bob! Just yesterday i was glad to not live in the bay area with high bridges....I feel for you. I could jump from the Tacoma Narrows but they charge a $4 toll and I can't afford it.

In times like these we all have to keep our sense of humor!

Craig- Oh..now I get it. "High Bridges". Jeez, good thing I'm moving to cash before my computer is taken away for TUI.

Hi Les, those moving averages are normally for a daily chart, not a weekly chart.

If you use the 13-week EMA and the 34 - week EMA, this would show a crossover going down, which indicates a reduction in volume.

The trend is clearly downwards, in effect.

Very likely a bond market default will occur in the UK first, though.

I've been watching and reading but not commenting much lately but thanks to those of you who are.

fyi- sold 1/3 of slw and 1/2 bac. I'm feeling a little nervous although recognize the market can, and now likely will :(, head higher.
s

Would someone be kind enough to explain to me why Shoppers (SC) has dropped 10% in value in the last three days since reporting. Not only did they report strong sales and net profit numbers but matched analyst's estimates.

The company has maintained a historical P/E of 24 over the last seven years which should give them a price now of almost $59 (Can $). The only thing I can think of is that the market is returning them to their 2008 P/E of 18.

At any rate I bought more as the stock fell, I like this company and want to own it long term.

Am I missing something?

Tony

"Partying with your friends versus raping a female. Wow. We sure are one backwards-assed hypocritical society, aren't we?"

Well, I guess it only to be expected of anyone using the government as a role model. They're raping the country and partying with their friends.

no s&p 1000...
music's not loud enough to blast the party goer ears..

Locking in gains, will reload on lower prices. Maybe we'll get some selling into close and lower prices next week?

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/07/wrongheaded-syc...

Didn't Bernanke state clearly in his testimony earlier this week that he was concerned about commercial real estate? There are also many articles from mainstream sources for months discussing the growing number of probable loan defaults, bankruptcies, and impending foreclosures on commercial real estate.

So, if commercial rents which are falling and vacancies which are rising mean anything, business can't be that good.

Sergei Aleynikov is apparently an accomplished ballroom dancer as well.
http://tinyurl.com/o6wze3

Following the info presented here I am up so far this year trading mainly SLW and UXG. I managed to get back the money I lost last year, trading in and out of a penny stock(AZD.V) and when it went zoom zoom I went bye bye! Learned the value of holding cash, and taking profits. Currently 90% cash. Not a day trader more like a weekly trader.
Thanks to Bill and all that contribute in this community! Cheers

Hi F6, so for a weekly chart the MA's are 91 and 238, is that it?

I can't see an input that permits me to write in weeks.

I relooked at the chart with these new values and come up with something similar:

http://tinyurl.com/weekly-USB-chart

but flip it over to the daily chart with 50 and 200 ma and the down trend is clear.

http://tinyurl.com/daily-USB-chart

what am I doing wrong?

Some highlights from Karl Denninger's report

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1260-F...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

- card balances and available credit have both been significantly curtailed.

This is the 900lb Gorilla that nobody is talking about this morning, which is why I want to highlight it and spend most of this Ticker talking about it.

As everyone who follows the market and economy knows, consumer spending is about 70% of GDP. No consumer, no growth - period.

- Consumer spending cannot increase materially as wages are stagnant, capacity utilization and hours worked are in the tank and earnings power is being consumed by desperate attempts to stay out of bankruptcy.

This was reflected in Microsoft's results last night - it was not only their commercial lines of business (server software and services) that missed badly, the miss also extended to their consumer lines of business. For the first time in the firm's history Windows sales declined on a revenue basis - a clear indication that consumers simply are not spending on discretionary purchases.

-The stock market is pricing in not just a "recovery" but 5-7% GDP growth over the next year! That is simply insane:........if you're long the market........
Beware that position as all the data from the credit-granting firms, whether they be big banks or credit card companies, strongly suggest that we're going to be lucky to see a positive annualized GDP in either the 3rd or 4th quarter at all, and there is every reason to believe that if we're not negative in Q4 we will be in 2010.

The market is likely to react very badly when it figures this out, and reality will eventually gob-smack us in this regard.

Ok, I know its really crazy but I actually think AIG might be a really good investment here. Their CEO Ed Liddy commented on how there is an excellent chance they will pay back loans (I put little stock in this, though). A large portion of their CDS exposure is gone. The markets have gone up 45% since March so their equity positions that were at huge unrealized losses at q1 will be marked up. They've reduced a ton of their expenses and have stated they need no more money from the govt (again, little stock...). They're spinning off 2 insurance divisions in IPOs later this year/next year. These divisions are huge from what I've been reading and while i'm not sure what % the current shareholders will get from those spinoffs, even if they get some it could be worth far more than AIG's current $1.6 Billion market cap. The govt owns 80% of the company so say s/h get 20%. I believe 20% of the two spinoffs could be worth far more than this. Even if their core remaining company is worth $0, the sum of the parts from spinoffs could be worth significantly more than the total is worth right now.

I'm probably way out of my element here, but thought I would share my thoughts with everyone.

yeh yeh no offence taken and I understood what you were saying.

But why is the weekly not showing something that the daily is?

My guess is that the moving averages would be too long to show the crossover as of yet in the weekly chart.

In weekly charts are a 13 week and what was it? 34 week average always used?

Things look rosier in the weekly chart than the daily chart. Thanks for pointing that out.

I don't think you are "way out of your element here", teamfuego. I've had similar thoughts about AIG after listening to all the testimony and reading up on the subject. There's some prize plums in that company's assets and there has been quite a bit of clamoring by competitors to get at them. Like you, though, I wonder if shareholders will benefit out of it's slaughter - after all, it's a sacrificial slaughter, right?

The two spinoffs alone are worth a ton of money. If shareholders retain a 20% stake then its definitely worth a lot more than the company is worth right now.

It's a lottery ticket but I think the investment idea merits some consideration.

Thanks jm for that -- perhaps Dylan and Jon will have some influence and get more people aware of the duping of America.
s
btw I don't think we Canucks are getting the straight good either -- we've got a GS transplant running the show up here as well

Only the big REITs are getting a shot at TARP funds. Regional and community banks are rejecting all comers as those 5-year baloons expire. This is resulting in either default or private equity deals at 50%+ discounts to market value for commercial properties. All sectors overbuilt. Leverage is dead but for how long?

I know of a well located office building 2/3 full with weak credit tenants built for $3m in 2005 and sold for $1m in 2009 to a member of a bank board with 65% loan-to-value. Arm's length and not a distressed sale as the seller was wealthy. Seller assumed real estate was going lower and dumped it at a cool 67%+ loss after paying interest on a mostly empty shell for 3+ years.

That's the cold hard truth.

RE:>I'm forcing myself to get away from the computer for longer time frames. I've got to for I'll make even more dumb moves.

ditto here salty. I do the ironing and cleaning during amateur hour and watch dvd's to take my mind off these days when I shouldn't be touching the account.

As for getting back in, I'm interested in what Bill considers fair game. Gold going to get some breathing room before GS and JPM throttle it again? Great, will look for some unloved and unbought PM miners who'll be loved and used by the industry and investing community this summer.

Was playing with currencies, but have backed off since Bill and one or two others suggests they'll hold the buck in place. Waiting for a real crash.

"It's a lottery ticket but I think the investment idea merits some consideration."

Sadly most investments these days feel like buying a lottery ticket. :( But we can hardly complain about the opportunities that have been available - you've just needed a strong stomach through this crisis. To wit...

How about an investment bank at the height of an investment banking meltdown? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&...

How about a U.S. carmaker at the height of a national auto bankruptcy/consumer spending crisis? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&d...

How about some junk bonds during a credit crunch/financial crisis and a time of historically high default rates? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hyg&p=D&yr=2&mn=0...

Who knows... Maybe it's an opportunity of a lifetime in commercial real estate right now, for those with a strong stomach? I know it's been much on my mind recently. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=drw&p=D&yr=2&mn=0...

More likely though, it's private interests that are going to make out best in this real estate crash. Like these guys: http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2...

And, in a smaller way, this couple who "made out like bandits" :) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wir...

fortune favors the bold?

As a G&M piece says today, "there's no free lunch" http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inve...

I wouldn't attach much significance to P/E ratios given the outright hoaxes passed off these days as the "E" part. It was run up hard from about the end of May, right around the time oil was breaking down. Perhaps coincidentally - cough - before the runup there was some mighty favourable press in a major CDN business publication touting SC as undervalued. If you look at its performance around last October, it actually did hold up better than most issues so I think it's a high quality company and you shouldn't feel bad about investing in it, but in this nasty market you're likely better off adopting a short term trader's mentality vs. buy&hold because HB&B has other plans for your money than allowing you to keep it.

The limit order I placed last night was triggered this morning at $0.1 for the August $7.50 SLW puts I sold a few weeks ago at $0.85. While these puts will most likely expire worthless, I am trying to make sure that I sell puts only when I have enough cash as a collateral, and so now I wanted to free up that cash (by covering these puts) in case another opportunity comes along (the absolute gain I would get from waiting for these $0.1 per share turn into $0.0 per share over the next month is really small and so it is not worth "beating the dead horse")

"I think it 'overshoots' the obvious to 1100."

2nd_ave, who do you think will be buying stocks between now and 1100? Haven't everyone been so concerned about the economy in 2010 a month ago so as to drive S&P from 940 to 880? Have those concerns been alleviated in any way? What we had was a MAJOR short-covering rally, and now all the shorts are dead and all the longs (I believe every potential long has already placed some chips on the table) are very concerned about their profits and would want to take some now and re-enter the game only after some pullback. I think a pullback now to S&P 950 is inevitable (which is when the most dedicated longs will start re-entering the game), and this pullback can easily turn into a long and painful slide toward March lows.

IMHO.

Amzn down 8%
MSFT down 9% heavy volume
AAPL pressing resistance [upper BB]

QQQQ [daily] over extended. RSI +70

http://tinyurl.com/mlxc68

QQQQ [weekly] nearing over resistance
- broken support 1qtr 2008
- 2yr down trend line [green]
- 50% Fib retracement of 2yr downtrend
- 200 MA

http://tinyurl.com/na2xx2

this is an interesting point in this article:

"CreditSights, a debt-research firm, says its ballpark estimate is that the two life-insurance units are worth $40 to $55 billion, though valuations could rise if markets recover. That could mean that after the Fed got its $25 billion, AIG could have stakes worth $15 to $30 billion left over and possibly billions more."

...

Thank you for your thoughts. I tend to believe in these financial statements, however I do appreciate what you are saying in regards to "E" in general now a days.

This stock ran up for no apparent reason from the first of June till the beginning of July and has tanked since, the only change is there reporting excellend sales and profits and saying that the next half of the year will be tougher. I can only assume everyone already has that priced in, wouldn't they?

I tend to forecast very conservatively and so I have the next two quarters down 15% each for net profit and it still leaves me with a price of $58.75.

As far as short or long, I am a typical amatuer investor absolutely bone tired of my stops being kicked only to watch the stock fly back up to new heights for me to buy back in at. I am now using stops only in my head instead of actually placing them, then I am the only one that knows where they are.

Tony

Continuing my thread about outside the box entrepreneurship ideas for America, I came across this

Browsing Ryan Kruger's discussion of earnings and what they mean this AM arrives at the story of a little shoe company in the desert, just bought out by Amazon. They are web based, entrepreneurial, to the point that they offer each trainee $2000 to leave after they have finished the training program, if they don't want to stay. Wrap your head around that.

Here's the full article and shoes are on page 3

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/UPS-MSFT-AMZN-...

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/saluzzi-educ...

...

Start new position: inverse ratio (2:1 puts:calls) straddle SEP 90 puts and SEP 102 calls @ 3.7 credit. Breakeven at expiration between 88.01-105.94 with slight positive delta

Craig- Yeah, man. Hoping I don't wake up Monday morning feeling like I'd walk a mile for a Camel.

This was written by Beth O'Connor of Berwick, Maine to be presented at a July 4th tea party, but was read on WLOB instead and put on youtube. It was published in the Portland Press Herald as a full-page advertisement taken out by the Maine Center for Constitutional Studies. Glenn Beck spoke of it today on his show.

# # # # # # # # # # # #

Dear Citizens,
I write as an ordinary citizen, I have done nothing remarkable or perhaps even noteworthy. I am a free thinker and under no obligations public or private. My thoughts are not subject to rule and are free from any authority except the authority of reason, truth and conscience. It is that conscience and my desire to see truth and logic prevail that drive me to fight against the tyranny of our ever growing oppressive government.
Getting to the crux of the matter, we are faced with serious economic problems, not just in Maine, but nationwide. It is evident to me that economic and political freedom go hand in hand; if you lose one, you will lose the other. I believe that you have noticed that there has been a serious decline in our individual rights, especially our freedom and property rights. If we are going to solve these problems, it might help to ascertain the cause of these problems. When I contemplate the fifty years of my life I am left with no doubt whatsoever that government in all forms not only creates most of our problems, it is also the greatest threat to our freedom.
What is government? What is politics? George Washington warned us that “government is not eloquence it is not reason it is force and like fire it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master.” Thomas Paine rebuked government at it’s best is but a necessary evil at it’s worst an intolerable one. Politics is who gets to use this legalized force on who and for what purpose.
The old adage divide and conquer is prevalent in America today; we are not only divided political parties we are also divided into other factions such as rich and poor, young and old. We are divided ideologically by laws that the government has no moral or constitutional right to make, laws based on emotional and abstract notions.
Bribery, stealing, lying, selling political favors and so forth are easily recognized forms of corruption, however there are far worse forms of corruption that are not easily recognized, yet are widely practiced and accepted with respect by those who loathe the basic forms of corruption previously stated. It is the corruption of mind and spirit that comes from the conscious compromise of principle that one would openly admit they believe in. No shame is cast upon or held by the seekers of office who peddle false promises for votes. Politicians who cast burdens on some for the unearned benefits of others. I am disgusted with the majority of politicians who sell their souls for political power and become the darlings of those they lie to.
As I see it today, public policy is a maze of payoffs, kickbacks and shakedowns tangled up in political intrigue. Politicians expect people to be grateful for the shackles government attaches to them. We have become the economic slaves on the assembly line of the state. The economic crisis that has been created by government is far more than fiscal. As I mentioned before, economic and political freedom are correlative entities, again if you lose one you will lose the other. The abandonment of fundamental principles has set our once free society on a disastrous course. Our so called leaders shy away from principles like a vampire shy’s away from the cross. Why? Because principles interfere with their plans and their own selfish, partisan interest.
In a free society, the government does not have the right to determine how a businessman should serve the interest of society; nor should individuals be forced to serve others. Political force certainly does not solve economic problems, it causes them, and government control of the money supply has repeatedly caused economic instability. The great depression was aggravated by counter productive intervention by government. The agenda of less government and lower taxes and less regulation would be good, however, and most unfortunate, this formula would be antithetical to the standard of interest of professional politicians. Our current President who I will refer to henceforth as “the golden dancer” is a progressive Marxist who embraces policy that violates the very foundations of a moral and free society and he has ignored all of the conditions necessary to ensure economic stability and in fact has embraced policy that has been proven time and again to lead to economic disaster and a drastic decline in the standard of living. I question, how can he be so ignorant or perhaps I should question why he pursues a path of obvious destruction to the United States of America. The golden dancer is either stupid or evil, neither makes a good leader.
I know the concept of a “national will” or a “national goal” is the essence of tyranny. People, not government, have goals. The proper function of government is to maintain a condition of liberty allowing the individual the opportunity to accomplish those goals.
The stimulus package is referred to as federal money. What is federal money? It is money taken from the people. The basic means for doing this is taxing, borrowing or printing money.
Taxation comes in various forms. Income tax, tariffs, social security tax, medicare, medicade, licenses, fines, fees, permits, etc. All a burden on the people. The most common instrument for borrowing is selling bonds. Borrowing increases the national debt. The interest on the bonds is paid by tax dollars and the principle is commonly paid by selling more bonds, a burden on the people.
Printing money is the root cause of inflation. An increase in in the money supply causes prices to rise. In other words, it decreases the value of the dollar. Inflation is a flat tax that naturally puts the greatest burden on the poor, yet those same poor through constant indoctrination continue to support the politicians who chain them to low expectations and lives of poverty.
The lessons of a paternalistic government learned today must be unlearned. The notion that government can take care of you is a plague. It is a plague that destroys the moral, economic and political principles that made the United States the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world.
Nothing that out leaders can plan and order and rush around enforcing will take the place of personal initiative, competitive selection, the profit motive corrected by failure and the infinite process of hard work and personal ingenuity. These things constitute the life of a free society. The doctrines and policies of our own government are destroying these vital creative impulses. The policy of equalizing misery and organizing scarcity instead of allowing diligence, self interest and ingenuity to produce is killing the American Dream. Set the people free - get out of the way and let them make the best of themselves.
What will change the direction that our country is headed? What will change the abandonment of principles and the usurpation of our individual liberty? First, we need to be sure of ourselves, our principles, our purpose in life convictions and we must stand fast in the belief that politicians are our servants, we are the boss, not them. We must take charge of our own destiny. We can not hope that the politicians will change course we must make them change.

It serves us all to remember the words of Johann Wolfegang Von Goethe
“None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
Yours In Liberty,
Beth A. O’Connor
Berwick, Maine

I followed through with my plan and sold 1/2 my longs today.

Here's and old favorite for early happy hour
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9muzyOd4Lh8&feature...

vb

Taken a look today? The exact opposite of March, when almost everything was in the Accumulation Zone.

"Taken a look today? The exact opposite of March, when almost everything was in the Accumulation Zone."

Exactly. Combine this with the fact that the news stories started to extrapolate a very unusual rally even further and you have case when opening a medium-term "long" position very quickly ends in a disaster. It has always been that way during my 3-year observation of the market. Hussman said that major ups and downs in the market are made when people are extrapolating FAR OUT very unusual conditions (such as a major economic recovery and a strong expansion despite a continual deterioration in the 4 key economic indicators: production, sales, income and unemployment). I think such extrapolation is present now.

I though it would be interesting for this web forum to take in the comments of WE Pollock. Good series here.

http://www.youtube.com/user/wepollock#play/uploads...

Fine ...... but the guy looks like he didn't even wash his hair for most of his pictures.

That's what I usually do when acting on instinct.

Why did I (re)open positions in the ultrashorts at the close?

(a) Don't think I saw more than one other post today that indicated buying/adding to short positions.

(b) Signs of capitulation on a blog which shall remain anonymous.

(c) After twelve consecutive blacks, scaling into plays on red.

(d) I think an intentional sell-off will commence, for the sole purpose of accumulating the cash needed for a blow-off top.

I still think we go higher. But the means will require a minor sell-off. All JMO, of course.

Good job VB. Love the song..but for happy hour? How 'bout this... http://tinyurl.com/6kqt6s

Grace Slick and the Airplane on the Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour. (Scroll down the left side and click Play.)

http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/j/jefferson_airpl...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dbshnvztGA

After a couple of beers, it sounds like 'You're only as good as your last trade.'

And I remember this one well from the '70's also:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKhN6pAnFCk

http://tinyurl.com/dyajpu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_Q6Mo8Gojk&feature...

Look how young Leno was!

remember it well, along with "Let's here it for the boy."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4UEavSILe4
Both of which I heard numerous times on the kitchen radio at age 15 while working my first job as a dishwasher in a busy restaurant (for $3.65 an hour...but grateful for the opportunity!)

I remember that one too. Along with this one that my parents wouldn't let me listen to because it was "communistic"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_bvT-DGcWw

Embryonic Journey

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuXqiVFnbY8&feature...

Ha. That's a classic, knifecatcher!

AMEN vb!
When I watch it now and hear the line "we don't need no thought control" it seems particularly relevant. Hate the idiot box and all of the propaganda and messages, but need comcast for the internet...

KC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJ0onxQIY_w&feature...

Mackinaw- that's a classic! Friend of mine tacked it on to a psychedelic furs tape he copied for me back in the early 1980's. Fit right in musically. Funny how a song can take you back over 20 years and make you feel it all over again...

I spent many TDY Gov stints in LA late 1960's-1980's, some 2 weeks long. One contractor was Hughes Helicopter in Culver City, now part of Boeing. Close to Venice Beach. Also up to Lockheed in Ventura. Yes, I know the commutes are long. If you want to go to Disney Land its a safari.

Only one trip to Bay Area around 1968-9. Good one. Went on a trolley ride with my cohort and had a serendipity experience. Sitting across the aisle was an alum I knew from my first college, a small one in Indiana. Quite an experience.

Bluegrass...it's always intrigued me but I don't know much about it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_t8Hx97LwA

Illini -

I've subscribed to Kirk for a few years. Indeed he no longer posts every trade he does. This is because he found it made him risk-averse. He had over 75% of his trades positive (incredible) but was often stopped out, and wasn't making much on the average winning trade. He does often discuss particularly interesting individual trades.

Recently, Kirk has developed a raft of fundamental screens, which he views from a technical perspective. His setups are mostly when price moves to extremes in 180 day regression channels, and bounce back towards trend center.

Interesting that he defines stocks of interest to different types of fundamental buyers, and then looks for technical setups. Surprisingly, almost none of his screens are for shorts. He says he hasn't found screens that work consistently for the short side.

He posts and links to a wide range of articles, offer a look into his "toolkit" vis a vis hardware and software. Recently, he has done a few real-time, online Q&A's which have been good.

Except for about once a month live chats, there is no conversational give-and-take as in this community. The focus is information exchange. But it's certainly worth the $50/yr. membership. He has a very lively and eclectic mind.

The modern father of bluegrass was arguably Bill Monroe and his Bluegrass Boys. It comes from the Appalachian Mountain country . For a history of the people look up Scots-Irish in America. Those very indepependent Americans were amongst the first to defeat the British at Kings Mountain in North Carolina.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kings_Mountain

The guitarist is Jorma Kaukonen, the first guitarist for Jefferson Airplane (the original Jefferson airplane). It's him playing guitar on White Rabbit and he is the originator if the San Francisco psychedelic guitar sound of the 60's.
He later formed a band called 'Hot Tuna' with the bass player from JA, Jack Cassidy, harmonica player Will Scarlet and sometimes they played with violinist Papa John Creach.

The song 'embryonic Journey' was on the second Jefferson Airplane album 'Surrealistic Pillow' as was 'White Rabbit'. The Youtube of Embryonic Journey I posted was from Jorma's induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Vb, sounds like a great time at the Music Fest. The perfect time of year....and at Robert Mondavi, I would be in heaven!

Thanks Jock.....I do remember he was disrupted with a move to Utah because of his wife's job at a University. I also remember that long ago he had Caribou Coffee (CBOU) as a pick for his wife's retirement fund. That would have worked out only recently. Before that in 2006 or 7 he did a deep discourse saying he was not satisfied with his recent performance and was reconsidering how much blogging to do, amongst other things.

I quit looking daily because of information overload and the bear market, which is not favorable to his type of trading it seems. Will keep his blog in mind for the future bull.

ALOHA !!

Nemo ... Good e-mail letter! It speaks to the frustrations of living in a country where the truth is forbidden, covered by a thousand agendas, both hidden and exposed.

It is interesting that the author calls OBAMA a Marxist. As I have posted before my uninitiated relationship with Senator Ensign from Nevada was summed up in his words describing me as "Marxist subversive". So in this Alice In Wonderland of the POLITBANK the Patriots are not Patriots and the Marxist are not Marxists, everything has been reversed by the elected to cause more and more division and confusion within our ranks. In the case of Senator Ensign, I am not the one cheating on my wife. Just what is it with politicians and their peckers? Can't they keep it in their pants for four years? I guess we will have to attribute that behavior as the "euphoria of power"! I believe OBAMA and the REP and DEMS have morphed into "Crony Socialism". Its all "Crony" once government get this big. The cornerstone of my politics is MONEY ... If anyone has yet to figure that out then you should not be voting. Its not what you think ... You can NEVER have an honest government until our monetary system is honest. That is the MONEY part I have been speaking to for years and years. Any attempt to CHANGE without changing the current monetary system is just a band-aid. You cannot expect a corrupt monetary system to produce anything but a corrupt market, enabled by corrupt politics. The global markets are only different in "degrees" of corruption.

On an upbeat note-My wife and I met up with Casey(Mr. Tao) and his oldest son at our farm and later we all went to the Kalapana Village Cafe for lunch. We talked about everything from Iowa police to mental health to Tao and orchids and XBox ... We did not mention one word about "politics and money"! Later we went to the "Painted Church" which is just down the street from where we live. The Hawaiian version of the Sistine Chapel ... Kalapana is tied to the story of Father Damien when he was here in 1864. Of course he went onto be World famous on the island of Molokai. I stop in there every week or so, as it is open every day, just to touch something from the distant past, something of community and deep commitment. You just don't find that sort of thing anywhere, not even the jewelry department at WalMart ...

Church link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_of_the_Sea_Paint...

ALOHA !!

Les posted - "To have deep pockets like Uncle Sam and bomb GS back to the stone age."

Now you know why Rothschild said what he said 230 years ago ...

Or maybe what Rodney Dangerfield said, "Marriage is like a gold mine. My wife gets the gold and I get the shaft!"

Interesting, Illini. Thanks for that.

'We all saw Teflon Timmy's tax returns. So, after he departs Treasury, where he is earning per year what the Goldman Sachs exec managers earn in about three days, where do you think he's headed after "government service"?'

Bill,

Perhaps the Tax Consulting Service for GS execs?

Such a thankless job. I understand that in the interests of "no conflicts of interest" they are required to put their investments into a blind trust. To sell all would be a tremendous tax bite so it is only fair the tax be deferred (until it is forgotten). Timmy will probably not have a problem with this.

Isn't it remarkable we have people who are willing to give of themselves to act as "public servants"?

The account books should appear on the NYT best seller list under fiction.

* U.S. restaurant traffic fell 2.6 pct in May quarter

* Diners with children contributed to decline

* Consumer spending at foodservice outlets fell 1 pct

LOS ANGELES, July 20 (Reuters) - U.S. restaurant traffic fell 2.6 percent for the quarter ended in May, its steepest drop in 28 years, as diners with children ate out less, NPD Group said on Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN20...

"This rally has been relentlessly climbing up every day and I am just so happy that I am staying out of this.

John Person

I have discussed my pivot trading strategies previously where I was using John Person’s pivot point trading triggers. If you have not had a chance to read his book “Candlestick and Pivot Point Trading triggers”, I highly recommend it.

I was flipping through his book today and I came across a very good chapter where he discusses how to determine the market condition.

” I would say the hardest thing for any trader to do is to buy high, especially after seeing a huge run in the market. Buying high is a technique that very successful professional traders use. It is also a contrarian approach. After all, if you feel that the value cannot go any higher, it probably won’t, right? This market condition generally tempts traders to sell. That is absolutely the wrong thinking! That thinking falls under the category of “picking tops without cause,” “justification,” and “trading based off a set of rules or technical reasons”! Do not try to anticipate what the market will do next. Simply go with what the market tells you it is currently doing. In other words, try to avoid concerning yourself with why the market is moving; focus on what is occurring. That is my definition of staying in the now and, most important, staying with the trend.

Forget that last week the market may have taken a nosedive or that yesterday the market rallied significantly. Concern yourself with what the market is doing now. Ask yourself where prices are in relation to the current trend. It is up to you to identify the type of trader you are and the time frame in which you trade.”

[Fujisan]"

His find lost quite bit of money ( I did not own his fun)in the recent past, but always liked his writing, http://tinyurl.com/nheyvf