[7:52am ET] "Goldman Sachs engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they are about to do it again"
[See attachment.]
Oh really? Is there anything newsworthy in this article that bloggers and mainstream media seem to be heralding as shocking “news”? Isn’t this just a regurgitation of what has been discussed repeatedly in recent years?
What did happen in the past 15 or 20 years is that Goldman Sachs has managed to cozy up to the US Treasury Department and used operatives like Bob Rubin and Henry Paulson to help engineer legislation that would free the biggest risk-takers on Wall Street from long-standing checks and balances among regulators. As long as most people were making money because of it, all these Goldman Sachs stories were easily managed by the insiders. But, now that Mom & Pop have lost their jobs, their pensions, their homes, and their dreams, America is looking for scapegoats, and the independent, eclectic Rolling Stone magazine seems to be a good choice to get the ball rolling. :-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_Stone
Who knows if many, if any, of the people in Congress include Rolling Stone in their reading list. Why even the candidate for US vice-president Sarah Palin couldn’t tell a global TV audience the name of her favorite newspaper. So, I think Rolling Stone is beyond the margin, not part of any politician’s consciousness.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin
I could be wrong; maybe this is 1969 and I’ve missed 40 years of my life.
Now, if the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Forbes or Financial Times had published this so-called expose, I’d be playing a different tune today. No, by next week, the current issue of Rolling Stone will be covered in moss, which is sad because Goldman Sachs really does have to be taken down a notch.
Maybe Congress will have a look at this year’s record bonuses at Goldman Sachs and call these people on the carpet, demanding answers as to whether or not TARP monies from the US taxpayer led to those profits, which btw were hidden offshore, away from the grasp of the US tax authorities.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/21/goldman-sachs-bonus-payments
Maybe then we'll start seeing the road blocks go up along the well trodden path between Wall Street and Washington.
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Comments
Goldman Sachs
I hope you're wrong, Bill, and that people do start taking notice and effect REAL change - not the phony brand Obama has been selling. But I have little faith in politicians doing the right thing, or in the power of the people to influence them in that direction. Look at yesterday's Bernanke circus as the latest case in point. And the masses seem hypnotized by Obama's rock star appeal.
It's all dog and pony.
BTW, Rolling Stone published another article on the financial mess by Taibbi in March. Equally compelling reading. And just as quickly forgotten?
... Sigh
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
DB - Upgraded to Buy @ UBS
NKE - Downgraded to Hold @ Argus
---------
Other Stocks of Possible Interest:
AAUK - Upgraded to Overweight @ Barclays
USD
Colin Twiggs:
"The US Dollar Index is testing short-term resistance at 81. Breakout would signal a secondary reaction to test resistance at 83. Respect of 81, however, would leave the previous secondary low at 83 untested — warning of a strong primary down-swing with a target of 73."
Papa*d
There have been many, many times when it's seemed to be that breakouts which do not happen in the previous session seem to happen mysteriously overnight when there are no bears to beat back the price. Today of course spot gold is up 8 bucks so that explains Yamana's performance in the wee hours, but I can't tell you the number of times I've been in good stocks that don't move you sell them and then WHAM they go up at night w/o you...Kinda makes me want to ask Vad if investors trade against day-traders...If you know what I mean...It seems some of the best, though unpredictable gains happen overnight.
Now watch the damn thing open at 9.70 and fall all morning. Darn stock market.
Re: Papa*d
That is the market, that has always been the market, and that will always be the market.
Re: Papa*d
Vinod,
That's pretty philosophical sounding...Are you making big bucks these days or what?
Re: USD
Notice some interest in your preferred ag stocks Seamus. AGM up strong. Lindsay up strong. MOO catching a bid. COW lagging a little.
Institutional investors starting to take an interest? I'm wondering if it's sustained, or window dressing for the quarter?
Re: Papa*d
shark_attack
good new is not losing big bucks lately.
Missed PAL under 2.00
lookig at new ETF UPRO/SPXU
POG and long calls
RE:> With gold and silver stocks firmly bid all day long Thursday (GDX +4.05%), option premiums cratered, leading us to cover many short put positions with good gains, giving us the flexibility to add to long stock and call positions if gold vaults above 1000 dollars. Given the huge upside potential for precious metals, we feel this is the number one area to speculate with long call positions, comfortable with the risks of holding long premium positions.
I didn't quite understand Bill here. I'm guessing that Bill means speculating with bought calls, not written ones.
I see speculative interest in GLD at 100 in July, August and September
funny you'd mention it
both PAL and GMO fell to 2, and I bought neither, and they both advanced dramatically. PAL can be kind of iffy presently, as it is traded just lightly enough to provide the potential for a very unseemly lack of volume just when you need that wind beneath your wings.
Using Twitter for the first time on the web
Keeping an eye on what John Lee is doing in real time. If he keeps current with Twitter I'd like to know about it. I've opened an account and have JL's twitter site in front of me.
Does this page automatically refresh, or must it be done manually?
Re: Papa*d
"breakouts which do not happen in the previous session seem to happen mysteriously overnight when there are no bears to beat back the price"
Why is it bears that are absent overnight, while bulls are there and active? Do they have different hibernating patterns? :)
"if investors trade against day-traders"
Everyone trades against everyone else to the best of his/her abilities. It's not like either of groups is organized, coordinates their actions in any way and capable of some kind of collective thinking. It's juts behavioral patterns.
"I can't tell you the number of times I've been in good stocks that don't move you sell them and then WHAM they go up at night w/o you...It seems some of the best, though unpredictable gains happen overnight.
Now watch the damn thing open at 9.70 and fall all morning. Darn stock market."
My question to you: if you spot this pattern, track it and see it reliably repeating itself, why are you unhappy about it? This is pure gold if you are right and the pattern is indeed there. This is exactly what traders hunt for in order to make money - reliably repeated patterns. If there is statistical edge to it, buy it overnight, short it after open, laugh all the way to the bank. Observations must lead to something constructive, right?
Re: Using Twitter for the first time on the web
Les - you can use twitterfox (a twitter plugin for firefox). It will log into twitter and if the people you are following tweet anything, then it pops up on the bottom right corner of your browser. I'm sure similar plugins exist for other browsers.
Re: Using Twitter for the first time on the web
... the page doesn't refresh by itself, it has to be done manually last time I checked
Pole Vault
How many paces back for the best chance of clearing a new high?
Have UNG and TBT on the watchlist for trades with longer than intraday time frames.
Re: Papa*d
"If you spot this pattern, track it and see it reliably repeating itself, why are you unhappy about it? This is pure gold if you are right and the pattern is indeed there."
I can't recall the author, but I read a biography a few years back where a trader for a financial company did just that. He spotted a closing pattern that he exploited for a long time.
Re: USD
Les
Keep in mind AGM is a financial. I refer to it as Farmer Mac, similar to the other quasi agencies, Freddie and Fannie. However, their clients are farmers, rural areas, mostly connected to the agriculture industry.
No position.
Re: Using Twitter for the first time on the web
Thanks, plugged it into Igoogle, which I normally never use because the idiots at Google default my search results to the German language cause I'm in Switzerland.
Re: Papa*d
"This is pure gold if you are right and the pattern is indeed there."
but would you be willing to gamble on it? ;-)
Re: POG and long calls
les, I thought I was being clear, but sometimes I'm as clear as mud. Here's an additional note.
We closed our short puts because the gold market heated up and we believed we would be better positioned by buying risk, than selling it, so we directed our investment into buying calls to play the upside, rather than selling puts to play a side-tracking market. We booked good profits on the short puts that we recently bought when so many traders were moaning about the falling POG, and with the move up in POG here, we are already well ahead on the long calls. The fact that option premium has fallen so much in the past couple days, the pain of over-paying for a call option was mitigated, so I said we were comfortable with the added risks of holding calls at this point, which can really zoom with a rising POG.
Re: USD
Thanks Seamus. I wasn't thinking about AGM as a financial. My bad.
Re: POG and long calls
Thanks Bill. I've been burned enough with options that I want to be doubly sure I understood.
And I screwed myself out of better results, by buying a straddle around the same time you would have been buying calls but then selling the call side too cheaply, thinking I could dive in and out of a volatile price range. The price has been all upside since.
Re: Papa*d
Vaydm quote:
"My question to you: if you spot this pattern, track it and see it reliably repeating itself, why are you unhappy about it? This is pure gold if you are right and the pattern is indeed there.
This is exactly what traders hunt for in order to make money - reliably repeated patterns. If there is statistical edge to it, buy it overnight, short it after open, laugh all the way to the bank. Observations must lead to something constructive, right?"
well said Vaydm,
there is a tendency to construct patterns both in favour and against us in all aspects of life. we tend to forget when such patterns fail, but remember vividly when they work. im sure many of us have noticed patterns simply because we lost money on a trade gone wrong and it burns an impression in our minds, if it happens again we truly believe a pattern exists yet wont commit any $$ to a trade based upon it. it says to me that we love to dramatize the powers that be working against us but wont put our money where our mouths are because a rational part of us suspects its simply not true.
i do it all the time, almost exactly the kind of scenario Sharky was referring to where gold miners tend to jump up then slump the rest of the day if gold doesnt make a move. yet i never take an opening position EOD and hope to sell the jump the next day...
Cara 100 Update
BBBY - Upgraded to Buy @ Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey. Price Target = $38
long auy
long auy
Re: POG and long calls
RE:>The fact that option premium has fallen so much in the past couple days, the pain of over-paying for a call option was mitigated
So this is very much about risk and reward. Cheap call premiums versus a possibility of POG zooming.
I see then that I shouldn't have been treating call options like stocks.
Russell reconstitution shuffle, look at DDRX as it makes new H
today due to very small float. Where they gonna get shares
Re: long auy
This morning's opening volume is a touch underwhelming. It's going to be a rollercoaster kind of day.
Coxe Call
Does anyone have a current link to Don Coxe's weekly call? I keep getting the old call from 1/30/2009
TIA
Re: Papa*d
2nd,
reminds me funny dialog during one seminar... Q/A time, a guy says: I need help with one of my setups, I am so frustrated with it... I ran stats on it, it loses me money 90% of the time! My jaw drops, I say "Wait... you stumbled onto a pattern that has 90% consistency...??" Pause, silence, guy slams his forehead, laughs, says "never mind, can't believe I didn't realize I've got gold here"... :)
China Reiterates Call for New World Reserve Currency (Update4)
http://tinyurl.com/lzp24w
June 26 (Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank renewed its call for a new global currency and said the International Monetary Fund should manage more of members’ foreign-exchange reserves, triggering a decline in the U.S. dollar.
“To avoid the inherent deficiencies of using sovereign currencies for reserves, there’s a need to create an international reserve currency that’s delinked from sovereign nations,” the People’s Bank of China said in its 2008 review released today. The IMF should expand the functions of its unit of account, Special Drawing Rights, the report said.
The restatement of Governor Zhou Xiaochuan ’s proposal in March added to speculation that China will diversify its currency reserves , the world’s largest at more than $1.95 trillion.
Re: Goldman Sachs
If the response to reports by Elizabeth Warren and her commission are any indication — I see little hope of Change I Can Believe In improving things for the masses — only for The Masters.
One of the "experts" advising on new regulations was on CNBC first thing today telling how recent action averted a major crisis. (So what is this we have?)
It was like asking Jesus if he believes in God.
Re: Papa*d
dr. cosa,
very good point. That's why I suggest to run stats on a suspected pattern, to make sure it exists in reality and not in our imagination only. Cold hard numbers do not lie
Volcker Gets Less Than He Wants in Curbing Excesses
Bloomberg interview. This dovetails nicely with the GS cabal, add Geitner and Summer to the list of sycophants.
http://tinyurl.com/ljq7uv
Re: Goldman Sachs
Well Bill you got your wish, the FT Alphaville Blog picked up the Rolling Stone story as well:
http://tinyurl.com/llmjul
Re: Papa*d
This is the real power of positive reinforcement. We repeat behaviors that give us a positive reinforcement even if it happens only once.
Animals do this repeatedly, and we're animals. Having one hunting success, the hunter will return to the same place hoping for a repeat.
Have a favorite fishing hole or hunting site? Why? It isn't the scenery even though that might be nice too.
More Suspicions At The NYCOMEX
Auditing this facility would be most memorable...
In April, delivery notices were sent on a whopping 1.5 million ounces of gold, against 2.5 million ounces of dealer inventory. That month, Deutsche Bank alone delivered 850,000 ounces. This coincided, rather suspiciously, with a sale of 1.14 million ounces of gold by the European Central Bank that month, suggesting that Deutsche Bank was being bailed out in a big way. Nothing of this size turned up in the warehouse reports. Nothing followed similarly large deliveries in December 2008. By Comex rules, all physical deliveries must go through the warehouse. What happened? Until investors receive an explanation from the exchange, which has thus far been silent, we must regard it as being very suspicious. Very, very suspicious.
What does it all mean? First, there are indications that the seller side of futures contracts (such as Deutsche Bank in April) are having a difficult time making good on their commitments. Second, the information reported by the Comex regarding physical inflows and outflows is looking more and more like a convenient fiction. Third, there is some doubt as to whether there is gold in inventory -- as there absolutely should be -- to match existing warehouse receipts. Fourth, the Comex warehouse is one of the most secure forms of gold investment in the world. If they can't be trusted, what does that say about ETFs, pooled accounts, futures, forwards, options, and all the other forms of "paper gold" out there? Fifth, if it becomes clearer that there is no physical supply to meet physical demand, the dollar price of gold could go much higher.
http://tinyurl.com/njmcus
Re: Coxe Call
If you go to the JGlobal website there is a May update, and then I think I heard he was taking the summer off.
Latest NYSE data indicate a
Latest NYSE data indicate a 50% increase by Goldman's principal Program Trading unit.
The most recent data indicate a rise from last weeks 631 million principal shares to 977.8 million shares.
Credit Suisse has doubled it's principal program trades.
Overall program trading, from 30.7% of all NYSE volume to 40.4%
http://tinyurl.com/mszknn
Re: Papa*d
"This is the real power of positive reinforcement. We repeat behaviors that give us" a positive reinforcement even if it happens only once."
Actually, intermittent reinforcement is the psychological key that keeps bringing one back. Casinos operate on this theory with the obvious example of slot machines where intermittent reinforcement keeps the customer feeding money into the machines.
Another example, Golf is intermittent reinforcement where repeated, intermittent positive feedback can (key word) get one hooked.
As for trading, there are repeated positive patterns where a good trader takes advantage. The key for the good traders is to recognize when there is a definite change be it a trend, changing facts ("when the facts change, I change"), fundamentals, etc. Nothing lasts forever.
Re: Coxe Call
yvrapx,
This is the link that I use for Don Coxe webcast on Prieur du Plessis's webpage.
http://tinyurl.com/2jz32v
Re: POG and long calls
"sometimes I'm as clear as mud."
Agreed:
"inflection point - definition of inflection point - A point on a chart that marks the beginning of a significant move, either up or down."
SLW @ 8.84
...
Re: Coxe Call
Thanks Alberio, it works. :-)
coxe
http://events.startcast.com/events6/122/C0018/Defa...
Re: coxe
Got it thanks westcoaster.
SLW- next target
Is everyone making money? Hope so. I sent Loiuse Yamada a cigar and I'm going to get one for my dog also.
Now that SLW has broken out, where do we go from here? It looks to me that the next target is $9.76. This ties in with the 6/8 low and the 6/15 gap down high as resistance.
Currently, we are experiencing a gap up consolidation from this mornings spurt up. No problem. Short term parabolic moves don't last. Corrective action is ok. In fact it gives you an opportunity to add to current positions or establish a new position.
Unless you are a trader, don't worry about intraday recycles.
Anyway, I rambled on enough, time to feed my dog a cigar!
SNY a good buy on this pullback?
Considering adding to Sanofi Aventis on this pullback. Stock has pulled-back over 10% in 2 days and very near the 200 dMA.
Would appreciate opinions on just how serious the recent news regarding problems with it's new diabetes drug 'Lantus'.
Re: SLW- next target
Papa - I am not sold on the SLW breakout. Still appears very tenuous to me. We all know that SLW is a very volatile stock of course so the moves in either direction tend to be violent.
Silver is up a bit today but gold opened up and is now selling off. Nothing wrong with playing the bounce to the upside but I am skeptical that this is just a bounce on the way to gold $880 (and expecting high likelihood of a retest of gold $880). If this happens I expect silver to be coming along for the ride back to $12 area and SLW to retest support at $8 or below.
Re: More Suspicions At The NYCOMEX
again we have been told there are problems at the COMEX for over a year now,
this story is as credible as the previous "iranian oil bourse in euro's" story.
it may in fact be true, we cant say, but the proofs cited in this and other stories are not facts but blind speculation that lack any proper backing.
yes D.Bank took delivery, but how many contracts were they short that month, or the months prior or months since?
the price would be much higher if actual shortages existed but they arent, and theres nothing to suggest its the case. this story has all the trappings for gold bugs, its got intruge, conspiracy, a bullish gold outcome and the ever-present "we will awake one morning to find the POG has exploded upwards...get on board before its too late!!!!" type nonsense.
as usual people have been saying this for over a year now, they may be right one day in the future but its still a broken clock warning. the same urgency happened with the November 2008 contracts that were allegedly going to default and the GATA folks were insisting their "contacts" from in the industry were worried about a default... nothing happened, yes gold moved up, and then it eventually moved down and no one seemed to call out these guys on how yet again, they were wrong.
so by all means, please start buying gold as it is apparently a steal right now according to the many gold-bugs who have yet to prove their mettle in these markets. remember, there is no money in simply telling people to buy gold bars and hold them for a few years. its much more profitable to create a climate of fear and outright panic, that at any moment gold will explode and that the best way to capitalize is to buy the Jr. miners that a secret report will tell you about for a reasonable fee.
jr. miners were great buys at $1.50 because they would enjoy upside when gold moved up, and jr. miners are even better buys because they have fallen so much despite gold going up, so i suppose, when gold goes up the jr. miners will suddenly reverse course and begin to go up... because they say so...
my trainer is broke, why? because he realized long ago the best way to gain muscle and stay in shape was to follow a 1x per week workout that takes only about 15 minutes. it involves doing superslow weights that exhausts the muscle and requires 6 days of recovery. its slow but after a few months i was feeling better than ever. i asked why more trainers dont use this system? he explained the entire industry is dressed up to appear that its goal is fitness but in reality its goal is to make you feel bad for not going to the gym 4 times per week for 1.5 hours each time. they earn their keep with more sessions to justify charges, and to sell equipment and supplements.
if the results dont bear out, its your fault for not working hard enough. under my current regiment i realize the fitness industry would virtually disappear because there would be no need for much of what generates cash flow.
the metal investment industry is the same. guys selling you a subscription are making money off of subscriptions, not trading gold because they know they cant.
J
Berk's BB Sell Signal Setup, Again
Bev,
It looks like Berk's BB Sell Signal could be entering another setup, per your earlier post below:
Submitted by Bev (37 comments) on Wed, 05/06/2009 - 15:19 #26448
Everyone seems to be expecting one even "The Cara Trading Advisors" group. Here is a little something I picked up from some very good traders and saw it reposted today. Using the $VIX as signal. It is referred to as the...
Berk's BB sell signal.
For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 things:
1. a close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20 day, SMA)
2. a close back inside the 2.0 Bollinger Band - this issues the signal
3. a higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 Bollinger Band - this confirms the signal.
FWIW
Monty
Goldman Sachs
Yes, while it really isn't news per se, it definitely is a well summarized story of corruption that links Washington to the organized crime of Wall Street. Fortunately for GS, the average American would not read the information and/or would fail to grasp the meaning of it. And since the corruption links through to the government that's supposed to protect the avg Joe, you can sense the helplessness with the voters. Obama certainly isn't going to bite the hand that feeds him. Being popular doesn't necessarily imply you're free of corruption. Consumer ignorance is indeed highly profitable.
Re: Papa*d
Seamus,
It wouldn't be "intermittent" without that positive win every once in a while.
It's the positive, not the interval that hooks. If you sit at the slot machine and it's a lower payout (too much interval without a positive), you are less likely to stay. The interval is there for casino profits.
If you tried to actually train a behavior with intermittent reward it wouldn't be as powerful as consistent positive reinforcement. This is why some people get hooked on gambling. Most people actually lose more than they win, but it's that one win that keeps you looking for more. If you call your dog and are inconsistent with reward (intermittent) it isn't going to figure things out as fast as if you reward every time. Or, say you have kids and you reward good grades or behavior sometimes but not others. Their good behavior or grades will also be inconsistent.
Animals don't remember the day to day interval, they only remember the one time they got reward. This explains a lot about trader behavior and how some lose and lose and lose. They keep trying to repeat that one win which is way more present in their memory than the loss. Statistically 60% more powerful than a loss. That's like 60/40 odds. It doesn't take much.
Ask yourself, if you went to a casino, your example, and you won *more* wouldn't you be way more likely to to just stay, order food and a cot? :>) If the interval was any longer you may not. It's the win (positive) that makes you stay or return.
That's why they let you win, perhaps a lot, and by the end of the evening you are in the red... They have a mathematical model developed by behaviorists that gives them the minimum number of wins to keep you hooked.
Just like catching a large fish or a lot of fish will keep you coming back to your favorite spot. It's that one time that sets the hook. You may return and catch nothing, but it's the memory of that one time that does it, certainly not the time you don't catch anything. We know this from animal studies.
THEY use intermittence because they CAN'T let you win all the time or they get no profits. Don't confuse the interval as the motivation.
The interval in your case is neutral. The neutral interval does nothing, but you stay hoping for a win, a positive.
There are reams of studies by Don Morris at the University of Queensland on how the brain works and lays down this information.
SLW versus AUY
Do you like SLW better than AUY? I do!
The question is this: would it be more beneficial to my pocketbook to sell AUY and use the proceeds to buy more SLW?
I have done the following: I put in a stop on AUY at 9.26. This preserves a profit if it is hit (that was today's low). If stopped out, I will buy more SLW.
Re: Papa*d
BTW traders, there's a great little book that is very informative about this topic (conditioned response) all about Skinners work on how reinforcement works entitled "Don't Shoot the Dog". A little paperback used a lot by behaviorists, dog trainers and teachers. Not expensive or too long but it's a treasure trove of information on conditioned response.
There are some teachers that think it's "manipulative" and they don't like operant conditioning. DUH. The casinos LOVE it.
ont is starting to look interesting...
posted a couple nights ago... Maybe not a ' large move ', but the charts are looking good... but, heck, who knows...anything can happen in this market... I just don't think the ' quants ' are messing with this one...just the usual shorts...
miners
Hi,
Dr Cosa or anyone else have any advice (Opinions) on these???
Alamos Gold – AGI.TO
First Majestic Silver – FR.TO
Endeavour Silver – EDR.TO
Red Back Mining – RBI.TO
Thanks!
vb
All fascinating points
Doesn't this line of reasoning, as reflected in your above posts, quite reasonable in my estimation btw, establish that one should really be a short seller primarily, as that is the way to distance onesself to the greatest degree possible from the ranks of the amateur, who tends to only go long?
In other words, instead of looking for "good" setups which are often traps for amateurs, isn't a sell-and-ask-questions-later approach a good way to go, coming out of a 20 minute opening range that fails to rise? Or is my thinking merely reflecting the somewhat bearish character of today's market, plus it's a Friday?
Vad, any thoughts on this point?
Operant Conditioning
http://psychology.about.com/od/behavioralpsycholog...
http://psychology.about.com/od/behavioralpsycholog...
Re: Using Twitter for the first time on the web
Les,
BTW who is John Lee?
Re: Papa*d
Craig
Perhaps I miscommunicated. We're in agreement. Of course, it's not the interval, it's the positive reinforcement which in the case of a casino is intermittent.
There's a lot of ways to trade a market, but a good understanding of psychology goes a long way.
On the road with a laptop, so declining more extensive responses. Have a good one! ;)
Re: Using Twitter for the first time on the web
John Lee
http://www.weeklyta.blogspot.com/
WEN
anyone following this? This seems to me like it could be a potential big winner over the next few years if they can turn things around. I'm rooting for them if only for their fantastic chili, the #6 combo, and their milk shakes. I rarely eat fast food but I'm a sucker for Wendy's.
Re: All fascinating points
No thoughts really. It's just too general line of thinking and too broad to use in a constructive way. It's not like long always loses money; what is ""good setup" for one trader is a perfect trap for another so suggestion to sell all good-looking setups is meaningless without defining what it is; why 20 minutes and not 15 or 3o; will the fact that it doesn't rise be enough or we need actual breakdown? Etc etc...
Actual trading setups require much more details to be constructed right. You are looking for shooting-from-the-hip cowboy way to do it... won't work this way, not with any consistency at least.
Re: Using Twitter for the first time on the web
Thanks Craig.
Re: Papa*d
Just be careful on the road my friend. I will, you too!
Re: More Suspicions At The NYCOMEX
dr. cosa, I could not agree more. The smartest investors I have ever known prefer to remain anonymous. Why? Because they are not trying to sell you something. There are a handful like Bill, Fleck, Faber, Grantham and others that are truely altruistic and don't give a hoot whether you believe them or not. True objectivity is hard to find but once found should be cherished.
The best comment on how to make money in the stock market came from Will Rogers in the 1930's. He said "buy good stocks and when they go up, sell them. If they don't go up, don't buy them."
Have a great weekend...
Re: ont is starting to look interesting...
I'm watching this one, it does seem to be basing. Meanwhile, I thought I'd consult finviz:
Quick ratio: 0.62
Current ratio: 0.62
Debt/Eq: 0.3
LT Debt/Eq: 0.18
Re: SLW versus AUY
I got stopped out at $9.26 of AUY and added to SLW position at 8.70 average. Profitable exchange.
resistance for S&P
yesterday the stock indexes had a nice rebound from a locally oversold condition at the top of a multi-month rally that seems to have stopped and started to reverse. The 920 level was talked about here many times, and if S&P closes below 920 today, then there is a good chance that it will be viewed as resistance now that held its test. Hence in that case it would be reasonable to expect a down move next week. Of course, everything can happen very differently, so a close below 920 today should only slightly bias one's personal probabilities to the downside.
Re: All fascinating points
Ok...Fair enough..So what publication of yours details the latest and greatest trading setups, one's that are relevant now and fit your above description? 2nd will buy it and send it to me. (ok, I'm willing to shell out myself, just kidding) or perhaps, you could recommend another publication...Or is this stuff top secret and is only discussed in private?
(stopped myself out of Yamana at a 4 penny stop at 9:50 am)
in SLW @ 8.77
Trying an ascending triangle, in at 8.77 with stop at 8.70.
Action in SLV seems better than GLD today, in my opinion.
UNG
out of another successful krytonite trade at 14.50
Jim Rogers, believable ?
He made a statement today: "I have no shorts for one of the first times in my life," Rogers, a co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, told Reuters TV in Singapore. "On the other hand I don't see much to buy."
and : he picked the Canadian dollar CAD= as one of the "soundest"
George Soros, again, seems to be doing a "pump and dump", so, is this part of the game ?
source Reuters
Of course,
The facts that you described are the very reasons I have not done what I was asking about, just want to see what you think of it...Still think the concept may have some validity.
AUY/SLW
volume has fallen to paint-drying levels.
Re: Jim Rogers, beleivable ?
Rogers was on TV saying the same thing a month ago. Old News?
Bearish vs Bullish
$INDU....
http://tinyurl.com/mnurhf
S&P.....
http://tinyurl.com/ksyjfj
Huge volume on HEK today
Large trades...300,000.. 250,000 etc.
Re: WEN
I used to follow wendy's, because like you, on rare occasion i go for fast food, wendy's is my destination of choice. However, I'm not sure about their management. Seems they've had a rough go of it for 3+ years now, so unless they've shaken things up at management level, wouldn't count on a fundamentals turn around. Technically looks like it didn't hold early march low, so doesn't look great that way either...
Re: Jim Rogers, beleivable ?
Old news? probably, this quote was from yesterday. Point is: part of George Soros the magic manipulator's grand scheme.Is this part of a pump and dump scam, leading to something ? Like "the great revelation" = buy now !
Coming from Toronto I don't trust Soros.
Wary of dollar, China wants super-sovereign currency - Reuters.c
Reuters.com reports that China's central bank renewed its call on Friday for the creation of a super-sovereign reserve currency to reduce the dollar's global domination, which it said had worsened the financial crisis. In its annual financial stability report, the central bank did not mention the dollar by name but said it was a serious defect that one currency should tower over all others. "An international monetary system dominated by a single sovereign currency has intensified the concentration of risk and the spread of the crisis," the People's Bank of China said. In thinly-veiled criticism of loose U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, the PBOC urged the International Monetary Fund to exercise closer supervision of the economic and financial policies of major reserve-issuing countries. The 170-page report dusted off a call by the bank's governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, for the creation of a super-sovereign currency. Friday's report not only advocated a full role for the SDR but said the IMF should be entrusted with managing a portion of its member countries' foreign currency reserves. "To avoid intrinsic shortcomings in using a sovereign currency as a reserve currency, we need to create an international reserve currency that is divorced from sovereign states and can maintain a stable value over the long term," the report said.
Vad, love your scanning toy but...
I'm curious how you've constructed it - the programming of it. For example, APEI, which came up as an alert, was shown on your scanner as having crossed daily resistance (I think that was the term used). Admittedly I've been out for the last two hours so I don't know if any other action alerts came up for APEI. But aren't you interested in being a little more aggressive and grabbing APEI as it recovers and before it reaches daily resistance. Or have you implemented technique into the scanner that only high reliability signals or some such thing trigger the alert?
Re: All fascinating points
I don't even know what to say. The way you are putting it makes me question whether you are asking serious question.
You read our trading logs every day; do you see any room for "secrets" or some constantly renewed setups requiring some publications? It's simply a few basic setups that are being applied consistently, with taking current market conditions into account.
Re: Jim Rogers, believable ?
"he picked the Canadian dollar CAD= as one of the "soundest"".
And to think that just today I decided that C$ faces more downside than upside risk in the short and (possibly) intermediate term. :P
See attached chart.
Re: Wary of dollar, China wants super-sovereign currency - ...
China - I suppose China is completely innocent of any connection with the value of the dollar and the situation has nothing to do with massive trade imbalance. They are also probably innocent of any association with the Wall Street dollar pumpers as well....
Re: All fascinating points
sharkie - Sometimes you make me chuckle, thank you ;)
Watching paint dry on a Friday afternoon.
Re: Jim Rogers, believable ?
Mackinaw - And to think that just today I decided that C$ faces more downside than upside risk in the short and intermediate term.
Well looking at the daily chart, I see FXC coming off a double RSI-7 bottom which within the scope of the daily chart has been pretty accurate at predicting short term trend changes once that RSI gets even a little below 30.
Still I like your chart, it's looking a bit further out than I do these days.
VICL
I can't remember who mentioned this one a couple weeks back but I have followed it and opened a position @ $2.25 today. Setup on the 5-day chart looks real nice with today being the 3rd upward trending day after a nice smackdown earlier in the week. I understand that VICL will be added to the Russell 3000 this afternoon which could help to bring in some volume.
I found this list of health/biotech stocks being added to the Russell:
http://tinyurl.com/kvwth5
Apparently there is a 5:1 ratio of inclusions/exclusions for the health/bio related stocks in this rebalancing.
Re: Vad, love your scanning toy but...
Les,
there are quite a few ways to scan, pre-programmed and available for you to tweak as you please. If it came up as 2 days resistance break on one window, it could appear on others that scan for earlier signs. You can add criteria from the configuration panel to scan for stocks that are within certain % of resistance for instance. There is so much power in those filters and alerts, you can make them show anything you want.
I can't comment on that specific one without extensive tracking down this particular one, all alerts on it on different windows... but let me site for instance this one: CMTL, popped up on a more aggressive window at 13:02. Look at 1 min, see how scanner got consolidation before day high was reached.
Just dive into Configuration and scroll through Select Alerts and Window Specific Filters - you'll be delighted by the menu you've got :)
Re: UNG
Craig- You are Superman, my friend ;)
Which brings up one of my favorites:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKmxpeSKA34
chart from Mack CDN$
Hola Mack, since I have to buy currency constantly, I'd say the chart is right on.
More charts ? And is Soros selling off CDN $$$ ? hmm
Re: Jim Rogers, beleivable ?
Soros, when Soros wanted to buy something in size he would first try to sell a large block to see how the market reacted (see The Alchemy of Finance) then if he liked what he saw he reversed and took his position. Is this manipulation? Soros is playing with a stiletto and wants to cut your throat in pursuit of profits. Welcome to the world class game of trading that anyone who thinks he is good enough can compete with daily from anywhere.
Here's a company that looks ready to rock n roll
MDTL. Here's what they make:
Medis Technologies Ltd. (Nasdaq: MDTL - News; www.medistechnologies.com), headquartered in New York, is the first company in the world to market a personal and portable liquid fuel cell capable of providing electrical power to the mobile electronics marketplace. The Medis fuel cell features a patented, proprietary fuel formulation that utilizes borohydride to generate electricity upon activation; it is safe, clean, silent, and recyclable. First generation products include the Medis 24-7 Power Pack; 24-7 Xtreme Portable Power Solution; and the Medis Fuel Cell Power Emergency Kit.
get outta here!
pity that it's website is mysteriously unreachable ;)
SLW- adding @ 8.73
...
Re: Jim Rogers, believable ?
I see that, dave. Using FXC as some sort of volume proxy (probably completely useless?) the big differences I see from those last few low RSI7 times (which were good indicators) is
1) we're correcting that big run-up from $76-93
2) as such, OBV is declining badly
http://tinyurl.com/knnvod (FXC courtesy of stockcharts.com)
berkshire hathaway has options!
For those who want to trade BRK (even for the poor folks who can only afford the B shares) Berkshire Hathaway now has options. Naturally, Buffet isn't happy with that - only HE should be able to buy and sell derivatives on other people's companies.
July 18 2800 BRK.B puts are going for $48.90 bid ($4890 per contract). With BRK.B trading at 2817, that puts you on the hook for 100 shares of BRK.B - a cool $280,000 - if they expired in the money. Wonder what the margin is for one of those contracts?
I just wish I were rich enough to be trading them.
Implied Volatility is 22. Now that's pretty low...
Yamana Gold, takeover target
From the Financial Post
Following the sale of three non-core assets earlier this month to Aura Minerals, Yamana Gold Inc. is looking more and more like a takeover target, says Dundee Securities analyst Ron Stewart.
"With only 6 operating assets along with a minority stake in the [copper-gold] Alumbrera mine in Argentina, YRI would make a good fit for either Kinross Gold or Newmont Mining," Mr. Stewart said.
Mr. Stewart said a hook-up with Kinross is an obvious one, given both companies have operating mines in Brazil and Chile.
"It would lower Kinross' political risk profile considerably, improve liquidity and vault the company forward, lifting the pro-forma market cap to around $20 billion,"
Newmont would also benefit from a takeover of Yamana. It would lower its political risk, provide needed growth and once again rival Barrick Gold Corp. once again for top spot in the gold-producing sector, the analyst said.
Mr. Stewart maintained his "buy" rating and 12-month target price of $13.50,
"On its own, the entry point into Yamana today looks attractive to us; as a possible takeover candidate, it is compelling," he wrote.
Posted: June 26, 2009, 11:42 AM by David Pett
Re: UNG
wow! Very nice 2nd. Love the voice.
Re: Jim Rogers, believable ?
Yeah I don't so much believe the volume data on the FX charts, since they are a small tail on a very big dog. :) Still its an indication of interest.
Maybe we could expect a bounce right around here on FXC, with the upside possibly limited by that long term trendline coming from the high of 107 down thru the recent 92.5?
And if it broke the trendline, perhaps that would signal a buy?
Re: All fascinating points
Yeah, I was asking a serious question. I do review your trading logs but I there seems to be a lot of acquired knowledge on the part of your people; ino other words they seem to be up-to-speed with your tactics and understand the methods themselves. Without access to a minute chart after hours it's hard seeing EXACTLY what the heck the reasons for a lot of things are and aren't not just your ideas.
But it was a serious question. What I'm saying is, some of us need everything spelled out for us, retard-style.
Re: Jim Rogers, believable ?
"And if it broke the trendline, perhaps that would signal a buy?"
Not necessarily. I think it would just mean that trend is over.
Re: All fascinating points
They have access to the same books and courses as everyone else.
Hey Sharky
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
can review minute by minute anytime
I didn't mean to be insensitive
to the intellectually/chromosome challenged. I actually have a theory that we are "all" basically retards whose true stupidity is mostly hidden from us by our own faulty perceptions and special/cultural biases.
We puff ourselves up.
Regional Bank
Someone PLEASE convince me not to dabble in the likes of this:
http://tinyurl.com/lf2tnc (FMBI)
Based on price-series alone it's calling me in... :)
If it were called XYZ Tomato Co. I'd be in, in a flash. :)
UNG
Still not sure what UNG plans to do, but my $$$ is still on the symmetrical triangle pattern.
http://tinyurl.com/mhffv2
This tape is more torturous than some of my past dates. I'm off to ride. See everyone Monday.
Re: Hey Sharky
Nemo,
After the market closes it's hard to go back to the first ten minutes (or whenever near the beginning of the day) and look at, or better yet, watch again in real time the setups Vad describes after 4 on his site. Imagine if you could actually replay any trading period and watch again the trades going off in "real time" after the fact. That would be a game-changer, huh?
Question for Vad
So I, as a faithful reader of Bill's blog asked you which of your books describes the relevant techniques you referenced earlier today, or if preferrable, if you could recommend someone else's book which does the same, and you say.....What do you say? I am unclear.
Re: Hey Sharky
Why don't you just sign up to Vad's site for a couple of months to totally get inside his head on a daily basis in real time. Seems like a good deal.
Re: Hey Sharky
yes...but if you're careful with your mouse, you can move the bars slowly...no LII Actually that website I listed allows you to go back to the beginning of the day, just not pre/post market
Re: WEN
that nelson peltz guy pushed to buy out wendy's...and his firm had a significant stake in WEN before Arby's merged/bought them out.
i didn't realize they own tim horton's coffee/donut chain. peltz thought he could cut significant costs in that chain. I wouldn't be surprised if they find a whole lot of expenses to cut as they go through the merger process.
Re: WEN
triple rsi buy couple days ago. Max pain 5. No position....yet
HEK
600% volume and buying pressure increasing into the close
Re: UNG
LOL! Good thing no one dates a stock....
If you are in this one and 2nd thinks I'm superman you are killing me Wonder Woman! Have a great ride!
Re: HEK
FMR Corp. reports passive 12.991% Heckmann stake 06/11/09
Heckmann Corporation, through its subsidiary, China Water & Drinks, Inc., engages in the production and sale of bottled water products in China. The company's bottled water products include purified water, mineralized water, and oxygenated water under the Darcunk and Grand Canyon brands.
Going to open a small position soon.
Re: HEK
T3d- I have a contact on this one who I will see this weekend. I've traded it for awhile now. I'll fill you in if you like this weekend...got to run.
Re: WEN
long at 3.62, half way down the kangaroo tail reversal couple days ago. Stop will be just below at 3.50 and change.
GL/do your own DD
Re: Hey Sharky
cool. have a nice weekend man.
bgu
long for EOM play.
Re: HEK
Sure.
Seasonality Trade system, buy at close today, sell close 7 Jul.
Long SSO
TBT
Still looking for that elusive reversal. Doji star today with good volume. Medium reliability reversal pattern.
FD: already have too much TBT :)
Re: HEK
Block Trade 5,907,400 @ 3.95 on NYSE
long @ 4.07
Re: TBT
Bought some @ $50.80 earlier today. I have a target of high $52s next week (sell on the news after the auctions).
What is is your target / timeframe?
FTWR
Mark - I've almost got this one priced out for you, take a look...
FTWR
Jumped back in on the re-balance sale @.38. Looks like a reasonable risk/reward here.
news on Friday
Going into the weekend, the news is the most bearish I have seen since May 8th.
This week was generally bearish (avg 43%), with Friday being the most bearish at 37%.
We'll see if the trend continues into the weekend.
Re: WEN
Yahoo is showing 47,508,337 shares traded today for WEN. Huge volume near the close......looks bizarre
UXG added to russell 3000
11,555,000 volume, wondered why the big volume.
Gern
Check out the after hours on Gern
PS CP, I bought some FTWR just now. Hope to bring you good luck :)
vb
Stocks end mixed as savings rate jumps
Sounds like consumers are buying Treasuries...
Re: Gern
Vanillabean - You might even get some with a 2 handle, this one moves fast and there's been heavy selling lately. I'd like to add more if/when it stops falling.
How sweet, you can be my lucky charm anytime! ;)
The Elusive Trade of the Generation
Dave- I would expand your comment to include the long gold/short bond trade that has eluded many of us due to TIMING.
Timing (and time frame) is everything.
Since November 20, 2008>> Bonds (as measured by TLT) are down, and gold (GLD) is up. So the trade has indeed started to unwind as predicted.
I'm seeking entries into TBT and into the miners that work for me. Assuming both legs of the trade stair-step and/or dip-and-rise their way to fruition, one can obviously trade around the positions within the larger trend.
I wasn't paying much attention last November, as I had other (portfolio) problems on my hands. But the trade is clearly proceeding in stealth mode, and I can see there's plenty of time to catch the bulk of both moves.
My take:
(a) Core stakes in TBT and trader's choice of miners.
(b) Trade around the positions, but keep the core- when the parabolic rise(s) occur, I don't trust myself to chase them.
(c) True to its name, this trade has the potential for lifestyle-changing alterations in portfolio value. Each of us has to decide on allocation of capital.
Re: Berk's BB Sell Signal Setup, Again
Looks like an outside close to me.
earnings
should be the catalyst for the next leg down (in two weeks?). What would guys be shorting? Funny money is over for banks like citi & BoA this time, Goldman likes would still mock it up with trading revenues.
ftwr
Thanks CP- I'm traveling but put a bib in before I left for .36. Traded and added to HEK also. One in one out....
The Biggest Tax in US History
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/24232.html
I especially love this part:
"Republicans accused the Democrats of ramming the bill through the House. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.), managing the debate for his party, asked repeatedly if there was even a copy of the current version of the bill anywhere in the House chamber. Democratic Rep. Ellen Tauscher – sitting in the speaker’s chair although she’s already been confirmed as Obama’s undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security — repeatedly dodged the question.
Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), one of the bill’s sponsors, finally rose to say that a single copy of the current version of the bill was available at the speaker’s desk – and on the Internet, which members would have to leave the floor to access."
I guess it's par for the course....they never know to what they've committed us.
Russell Rebalance
It looks as though a number of equities experienced quite an impact from the Russell re-balance, live and learn I suppose...
http://tradenakedoptions.com/2009/06/russell-3000-...
Re: The Biggest Tax in US History
"I guess it's par for the course....they never know to what they've committed us."
No, but the special interest groups who composed the bill could probably answer any questions you might have.... As soon as the final version is passed, that is.
"Sign Here and Don’t Bother Reading this Contract (I Haven’t)"
Re: Russell Rebalance/ UXG ;)
One of the additions was UXG, which shot up 10.6% today.
Re: Russell Rebalance/ BMRC
Mark- Another addition was Bank of Marin, up 8% today.
Re: UXG added to russell 3000
Thanks for pointing that out. Gonna ride this one for a while.
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation
2nd,
TBT has reached the bottom of trading channel. If it bounces back from 50 level, should go back up 60 level. What is confusing to me is $TNX went up parabolic & still has to drop more to 3.4 or 3.1 for next levels of support, USD is falling and bonds are falling. What does it do to TBT? And what would correction in equities do to TLT/TBT (for sure i am expecting some sort of a correction in equities this summer, already the rally is tired & we see profit taking in most of the high fliers)
Re: Russell Rebalance
Following the link it says...
"The following are preliminary additions and deletions as of June 12, 2009"...
I wish I would have known this on June 12th.
Re: Wary of dollar, China wants super-sovereign currency - ...
Interesting that they say this and continue to be pegged to the dollar, called by some "a deadly embrace". Assuming they get their wish, perhaps they will just peg to the new currency and continue distorting the world economy with that peg.
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
Shiva- Your question refers to the short term. The key word in 'Trade of This/(The) Generation' is Generation.
Just for a moment, consider the (very) long term. Bill's initial TOG back in the early eighties was to buy long bonds paying nominal rates in the teens.
What if you had bought 30-year T-bonds paying 15% in 1981? (I can't recall the exact year or the exact rate, but it doesn't matter much.) The yields on those bonds would have fluctuated a great deal over the years, but at 15% a year almost risk-free, you would have been smiling a little harder at the end of every year for the last 28 years. Can you even imagine earning 15% risk-free right now?
What if you had shorted gold at $800 in the early eighties?
Both of the above trades would have unwound at great profit to you, albeit over different time frames.
Looking at today's trades, I'm left wondering about time frames and holding periods also. For instance, the ultimate (re)entry into gold was probably several years ago (think 'kaimu'). The ultimate time to short the long bond may well have been November 20, 2008. But the point of maximum (realized) profit for each may be well into the future. What if gold in fact hits 5000? What if inflation returns with a vengeance, and $TNX soars to 15?
So for the same reason ST fluctuations mattered little to those who bought bonds/shorted gold in 1981, those who short bonds/buy gold today may want to stop worrying and let time take care of business.
Re: WEN
I've been known to gobble down a few double stacks at 18g/fat per late night. Bad for you but tastes oh so good at the time. Pulled up a chart though and all i see is a bounce with a double top... (not to be confused with the kind with cheese and ketchup. Set a tight stop...)
KC
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
2nd, Yes - I was talking about ST entry point for TBT. LT, two possible scenarios, higher inflation or a zombie scenario like japanese economy.
But if you analyze more, there is really no real long term, its all varying cycles within a theme (like the Elliott waves). Barring gold as a store of value & real assets like land (Kaimu is spot on this), every other form of investment be it stocks or bonds are exposed to the interplay of fiat currency value & inflation in that zone. What if bonds & currency both go down, at the end of the day people who bet short on bonds have lost money as well. If LT is bonds down, real LT would be figuring out if sun is setting for the US empire. I really wonder if we can afford to play LT themes with a bias except ones that are crisis based (shortage of energy/oil, water, food). All others, we have to dabble in & out. Perhaps i am overly skeptical after seeing these economic cycles contracting & expanding in very short time frames (i fear we will see a recession every few years from now, its like administering higher & higher potency antibiotics to a patient & soon he builds resistance)...
he was honest then :)
boy, he sounds like Kaimu back in 67
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
"What if bonds & currency both go down, at the end of the day people who bet short on bonds have lost money as well."
Not if you understand the TOG.
The TOG is short bonds/long gold.
At the bottom of bonds (lowest price/highest yield) you cover the bond short and go long bonds that are paying very high yields while selling your gold while its worth the very most $USD (highest gold price for the most dollars) and catch the turn in $USD and ride it back to the top, or if you are my age you put it all into long bonds at insane yields and retire on a nice tropical island. Now you have either massive numbers of $USD at the bottom and/or the lowest price bonds with the highest yields and ride the bonds higher WITH very high yields. You will not have lost money, quite the contrary, you will be very wealthy. (Many dollars/bonds earning very high yields.
Ask anyone that saw the 70's/80's. I had a money market acct earning 17%.
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
ok, if the currency and bonds go down, why would u be short bonds? U can just use that margin money and be long more physical gold, no?
Re: The Biggest Tax in US History
Nemo, CP,
Well, the climate in Congress hasn't changed. This is the same method used to pass the gigantic stimulus bill — which nobody had time to read. "Too Big to Fail" and "Too Urgent to Read" seem to be the Obama-Pelosi-Reid "representative" process we're locked into.
I saw Sen. Grasso interviewed after the prior railroading job. He was outraged, but apparently the Republicans have zero power. This is oligarchy at it's most efficient.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." — JFK
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
Shiva, 2nd_ave,
Yes, your time horizon is key.
The Treasuries back them were TOG for sure — I missed it. Certainty is only clear looking back (even that gets skewed), but then i didn't know we wouldn't go ballistic like Weimar Germany.
I had several 1980s years of 30% annual gains by simply buying blue chip names (BA, GM, Ford, PG, etc.) holding until they went up 20% and buying something which had dropped. A real no-brainer period.
Today I don't have the time to go for them, but I'm sure there are such companies for those with 20 or 30 years ahead and a steady income for living expenses in the mean time.
I'm expecting another test of the lows and no real lasting economic turn around until the US job makes a significant turn around.
I've been adding to my Treasuries mutual fund (WHOSX) the past two weeks and will continue to trade in and out in the 3% to 4% range. Also I'm parking a large amount of cash in a Ginny Mae mutual (VFIIX) at over 4%.
My primary concern is not to lose money.
Edit: Buy & Hold should, IMO, always be buy and hold until... with stocks I have always used stops (-10% before, -5% today) TLT, TBT provide this advantage, but with mutual funds I always ready to dump.
JFK Quotes
While checking through my quotes file earlier, I came across a couple more from JFK. I must admit I was not a fan of his. But everything is relative and considering what we've elected since...
------------
Something Obama should remember when talking with the people formerly known as "Terrorists".
"It takes two to make peace."
------------
Something our last president could have used.
"If we are strong, our strength will speak for itself. If we are weak, words will be no help."
------------
Something we citizens should always keep in mind.
"The complacent, the self-indulgent, the soft societies are about to be swept away with the debris of history."
Manipulation forecast for next week
I figure that the numbers published by the US government are complete lies at this point, and so rather than try to guess what the real numbers are, it makes a lot more sense to try to predict the net of the lies and what effects the government will try to cause with them, than to worry about the truth at all, since by the time they revise the numbers to actual, nobody will care.
If you don't agree with the above argument, look at the jobs number posted by the BLS last month, and compare it to the unemployment percentage reported independently. The unemployment rose by about 750,000 people (based on the household survey), any yet the BLS jobs number only showed 339,000 jobs lost. My theory is that the purpose of falsifying the number by 400,000 was to provide reason to boost the dollar and improve consumer confidence and spending as a result, ie boost green shoots outlook. Boosting the dollar, of course means slamming gold, which to our government and its bullion bank TARP buddies, is always a worthy cause.
Ok, so therefore, this month, next thursday, I am going to predict that the unemployed percentage will rise to 9.9% (because the govt doesn't control that number), but that the BLS will report less than 400,000 jobs lost, and revise last month's job losses higher so that they can say this month's jobs losses declined again. This will provide a bounce for the dollar and reason for gold to drop, yet again.
Its pretty sad when you have to guess in advance what the lies will be in order to manage your investments....
Yamana - Deleted
I will make no further comments on Yamana. I sold my position yesterday and do not plan to acquire it again.
Listen to Financial Newshour Saturday broadcast today, the Metals analyst section. You will find out 1: There is a general collusion between analyst's company and the mining stocks they cover in order to get in on the deals that the miners make on acquisitions, sales, etc. (Example-Canaccord),2.: CEO Marrone of Yamana is a director and large stockholder of Aura Minerals whose recent deal of acquiring mines from Yamana are considered vastly underpriced to the benefit of Aura and the detriment of Yamana,3: Marrone sold 270,000 shares of Yamana the last quarter, 4: Yamana is being downgraded or earnings estimates lowered by a number of analysts.
According to the newscast discussion, Marrone may be preparing to abandon Yamana (the company could possibly be for sale) and startup a new Yamana equivalent with Aura Minerals whose stock is ORA on the TSX, valued around 50 cents Canadian, and for which he owns 5%.
GOLD
In India, my grandfather never trusted banks or paper currency. He was a farmer. Each year, he converted his savings into physical gold and stored in safe. If he wanted to buy an asset (mostly farm land), he would convert gold into paper currency just before making a payment. He did this for his whole life. He died as a very wealthy man.
If 1% of US population (3 million) liquidate their securities and bank deposits and convert it into physical gold, they will bring down the whole corrupt financial system because there is not enough gold to go around. Total gold with US Treasury is only $250 Billion. During September 2008, there was a run on money market funds which was stopped by govt by guaranteeing full payment in dollars. They can fulfill all demands of dollar bills by printing them. But what if people want physical gold? How can they print gold?
Why do day-trading when game is rigged? I myself have been following my grandfather's example and stored all my wealth in gold. We still rent our house (never bought one so far). I migrated to US because I thought it was a dream land. Although it is still a better place because of nice people, it has been shocking to watch government being hijacked by financial industry. Americans should realize that their country has been inspiration to millions of people around the world for centuries. It is being torn apart by incompetent president, corrupt officials and criminal financial industry.
This crisis is similar to crisis of civil war of 1860's when good people stood up and defeted internal enemy. In this crisis, if only a small number of concerned people buycott dollar currency, it will topple the whole corrupt infrastructure.
From ZH
Re: WEN
Barrons featuring WEN today.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB12460655157756...
FD:long WEN
Re: WEN
re:WEN volume.
looks like someone knew about the Barrons article. VBG
Saturday Brunch: Construction Paper
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/06/saturday-brunch...
A trading construct.
Direction and dynamics.
Sentiment.
Some charts.
Have a great weekend.
Re: Yamana - Deleted
This was in the paper this week:
National Post Article
Re: GOLD
The 1860's was the only time in history before the discovery of major gold deposits around the world where there was no price fix and the gold price rose to $163/oz. (I have no idea just what the inflation adjusted price in today's dollars would mean.) Note that this action was very brief in terms of market history, and is not generally recorded as a fuction of the gold price. If it should occur nowadays, it would take years to form, much as the oil price mania started way back in 1998 and peaked out at $147.
"In August 1869, Gould and Fisk began to buy gold in an attempt to corner the market, hoping that the increase in the price of gold would increase the price of wheat such that western farmers would sell, causing a great amount of shipping of bread stuffs eastward, increasing freight business for the Erie railroad. During this time, Gould used contacts with President Ulysses S. Grant's brother-in-law, Abel Corbin, to try to influence the president and his Secretary General Horace Porter. These speculations in gold culminated in the panic of Black Friday, on September 24, 1869, when the premium over face value on a gold Double Eagle fell from 62% to 35%. Gould made a nominal profit from this operation, but lost it in the subsequent lawsuits.
The gold corner established Gould's reputation in the press as an all-powerful figure who could drive the market up and down at will. For the rest of his life, newspaper writers would attribute to Gould almost any market development they could not explain otherwise."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Gould
http://www.historycentral.com/rec/BlackFriday.html
We saw what should be considering an attempted market corner in OIL, so imo, the gold market is a layup for the next market corner. Note that bidding up the price of gold did not necessarily result in the same in the wheat markets in 1869. (I assume as much, but no data was available- could be wrong.) Certainly people have almost identical notions of inflationary pressures now as they did almost 140 years ago. Note also that the premium of coins over bullion was 35%(as it is now on eBay) and during the market corner, rose as high as 65%, before coming back down again.
All very interesting.
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
"ok, if the currency and bonds go down, why would u be short bonds? U can just use that margin money and be long more physical gold, no?"
The reason is safety. 1. I don't use margin. And put 100% in gold? Even Kaimu isn't 100% gold. He's holding some XOM and such I'm sure he picked up for what looks like dirt now as OIL and hard goods will go with gold. We've all seen the action with gold. Dr. Cosa has made sure we see it. So short treasuries for diversification and less volatility compared to gold. Gold at it's extreme might be quite short lived. And you short what is UP now (treasuries)and sure to go down...right? And vice-versa? So long gold/short treasuries.
Bill has explained this many times.
Treasuries will go down and yields will climb, it's a sure thing because Ben Bernanke, his monster helicopters and printing presses make it so. A nice steady downward trend. They will be forced to pull all this liquidity sooner or later or Weinmar here we come. Gold on the other hand could spike to God knows what on one day and be manipulated to plunge the next. Treasuries, like ruining a credit score, take time. And as "margin", consider that TBT is a 2X inverse ETF.
As "proof of concept" look at treasuries since their top last year and look at TBT. TBT from $35 to almost 60 and now $51 or so. What was TLT, $135? Now $94-95 from $88? Gold from $700-800 to the mid $900's with a spike to $1000?
Have you gotten your CC statements lately? I cut up my AMEX blue card yesterday when they raised my interest rates to over 10%. LOL!
I never carry a balance but it pissed me off anyway. Screw em.
The TOG is well underway. What are they complaining about with 3.75 - 4% treasury yields? YEP, it's killing the mortgage rates and driving them toward 6% already. In a while 6% will be a monster bargain.
I have an 800 FICO, I don't pay 10% and I'm not going to even entertain 10% under any circumstances. I have Chase, Citi and BAC dying to enslave me short term for .99% (plus 3% transaction fee of course) hoping I won't pay it by the time rates jump to the moon. So they'll give me essentially 3.99% for 18 mos. They have complete confidence in the TOG. Like your local drug dealer "the first one is free man"....but then you're a hooked junkie.
Debt is bad...I can see the cliff from here....
Interest rates, driven by treasury yields and what will then be cited by the mainstream HB&B talking heads as a shortage of capital (Ben pulling the plug) will see to it that yields and interest rates skyrocket. It HAS to be, there is no other way. It's supply and demand and $$$, now gravitating to bank balance sheets to rescue their sorry a@@es will be deployed sooner or later and Ben hopes he'll be there with his high yield sponge to mop it up.
So all those great stock ideas won't work unless those co's don't need cash or loans. All the others will be gasping for the life blood of business, low interest capital. It's called stagflation for a reason.
As Ben pulls liquidity they will all be competing with the need for massive amounts of cash being used by Obama's "recovery package". Geez, it's Deja Vu all over again!
I remember double digit mortgages, don't you? It's the cycle, it will happen as sure as the sun rises in the east. You can take that to the bank...I know I will. As 2nd so eloquently put it, the word GENERATION is the key.
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
Craig, If one decides to have a passive portfolio for TOG (which I doubt one can afford to these days), may be a three legged trade would be more hedged? Long TBT/Long AUD, CAD, CHF basket/Long Gold.
For active portfolios, Long TBT/Long Gold is perfectly okay, assuming we will get an opportunity to reposition ourselves for the currency risk.
I agree on the debt side, perhaps consumers should not be allowed to have any debt. Thats a cash negative situation to start with, to borrow & spend not backed by an income generating asset. Its interesting to note that in India, they didnt have until late 90s consumer loans, credit card loans. They had mortgages loans with very little leverage & automobile loans. Now they have borrowed american concept of credit card loans to consumers as well, brought in by HB&B to India.
Re: GOLD
fransix - Note also that the premium of coins over bullion was 35%(as it is now on eBay) and during the market corner, rose as high as 65%, before coming back down again.
Anyone with any sense can get gold coins for a very small fraction of that 35% premium. I got a quote just last week for $45 over spot for Eagles, just because I was curious. There IS no gold shortage, at least not currently.
People who buy gold on ebay - well they must be daft, that's all I can think.
EDIT: hmm, either daft, or they're engaging in money laundering, or they *really* don't want to deal with the mainstream economy.
Politics of CO2
As politicians prepare to tax and control carbon dioxide,
their politicized phony issue of the evil element CO2 continues to divide public opinion
with proponents rabid about the correctness of their belief in Herr Gore's science.
Dr Harper, a physicist, seems to view the situation in a more logical manner.
He explains the faux science of Gore's global propaganda campaign.
It's all about the money.
I would add our perception of infinity is generated when looking skyward ...
but our life sustaining layer is only 4 miles thick. We live in a big room with a very low ceiling.
and it would be a good idea to keep it as clean as possible.
Here's the article
The Politicization of Global Warming
The politicization of global warming was at play in February 2007, when in response to a report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) citing human activity as the primary cause of global warming, syndicated columnist, Ellen Goodman, proclaimed global warming an unequivocal, alarming fact. Ms. Goodman, who holds no scientific credentials, exclaimed that global warming deniers were on par with Holocaust deniers.
A meteorologist with the Weather Channel, Heidi Cullen, subsequently recommended that the Meteorologist Seal of Approval be revoked for any meteorologists skeptical of the human causation of global warming. And although scientists are far from unanimous in their opinions of human responsibility for climate change, Oregon governor, Tel Kulongoski, went so far as to consider firing the state’s climatologist for disagreeing with the U.N. conclusions.
Dr. James Hanson, a NASA climate scientist who pioneered the research on global warming and politicized the issue with Al Gore’s widely debunked Academy Award-winning movie The Inconvenient Truth, has referred to skeptics as being guilty of “high crimes against humanity and nature.” He has called for mass civil disobedience at the coal-fired capital power plant in Washington, D.C.
Voices of Dissent
Yet, much doubt exists over the IPPC climate change theory. Hanson’s own supervisor at NASA claims that Hanson has “gone off the deep end” with insufficient evidence and has violated NASA policies by arguing against the agency’s official position on climate.
Recently, a group of Japanese scientists from a government advisory panel publicly announced their disagreement with the IPCC report and declared that climate change is driven by natural cycles related to solar activity and has nothing to do with CO2 emissions. The climate modeling used to support claims of man-made global warming was dubbed “ancient astrology” by a program director for the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology.
Skepticism over human-caused global warming was also raised as recently as February 25th at a U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works hearing hosted by Senators Barbara Boxer and James Inhofe. There, Dr. William Harper, Princeton University professor and former Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy (1990-1993), presented some of his key findings on climate change. One of just four scientists invited to address the forum, Dr. Harper, who supervised all DOE work on climate change, is a climate crisis skeptic. In his presentation, he noted that 650 prominent international scientists, including both former and current IPCC participants, have challenged the claims made by the 52 scientists who authorized the U.N. panel’s report. He also called CO2, a compound singled out by the IPCC as a major contributor to global warming, as, in fact, a beneficial compound essential for life on earth.
CO2 Levels
In his analysis of CO2 as a factor in climate change, Dr. Harper affirmed that CO2 is not a cause for alarm, as it is neither a pollutant nor a poison. Indeed, Harper argued that CO2 limitations, such as the 450 ppm (parts per million) standard recommended by the IPCC to “stabilize” CO2in the atmosphere, will actually damage the environment.
According to Dr. Harper, the current warming period (which actually ended 10 years ago) began in 1800 following the close of the little ice age (1300-1650 AD), which was preceded by a Medieval Warm Period (800-1300 AD). Harper noted that the little ice age and the Medieval Warm Period were curiously omitted from the IPCC report and that the Medieval Warm Period was as warm or warmer than today. Clearly at that point in time, global warming had nothing to do with the burning of fossils fuels. Also, Dr. Harper explained that several warmings have existed over the last 10,000 years since the last ice age, thus confirming that climate change has occurred multiple times absent mankind’s actions.
Furthermore, plants and our primitive ancestors evolved when atmospheric CO2 was 1000 ppm. This compares to our current level of 380 ppm. Dr. Harper reported that higher levels of CO2 benefit the environment because they result in higher crop yield and more drought-tolerant plants. He cited a modern day example: greenhouse operations that are typically maintained at 1000 ppm. In truth, Harper said we are actually in a CO2 famine as most of the earth’s CO2 levels throughout the planet’s history have been at least 1000 ppm or higher. At these points in time, “the oceans were fine, plants grew, animals grew fine. So it’s baffling to me that we’re so frightened of getting nowhere close to where we started,” he said.
Dr. Harper also cited examinations of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as further evidence of his claims. From that data, past temperatures and concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere can be determined. The findings indicate that first temperatures rose and about 800 years later, CO2 levels rose from the CO2 released from warmer oceans. This finding is in direct contradiction to the beliefs of global warming advocates who believe that higher levels of CO2 cause warmer temperatures.
The Fallacy of Scientific Consensus
Dr. Harper, who ironically was fired by Al Gore for disagreeing with his views on climate issues, cautioned the Senate committee members about the dangers of creating a crisis mentality and of demanding or aiming for consensus among scientists on climate theory. He observed that scientific breakthroughs and discoveries have never been determined by consensus, quite the contrary. As an example, he cited the 1793 yellow fever epidemic in Philadelphia when the majority of physicians wrongly believed in a bleeding cure for the disease. A few contrarians noticed that yellow fever victims were more likely to survive by foregoing these ministrations but were summarily ignored. Today, global warming proponents point to the rise in the incidence of malaria and yellow fever as evidence of the ill effects of rising temperatures. However, according to Dr. Harper and other scientists, this phenomenon has more to do with controlling mosquitoes than controlling temperatures.
The late Michael Crichton had this to say about scientific consensus, “Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels. It is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. The great scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with consensus.”
Dr. Harper maintains that the current climate crisis is a political creation that does not enjoy consensus but has the backing of the media, influential politicians, certain scientific societies and well-funded non-profit organizations. He cautions that climate warming dogma, absent critical analysis and the presentation of contrary data, is being taught in our schools along with the widespread viewing of the seriously flawed film The Inconvenient Truth.
Impact on Our Energy Supplies
Contrary to what the media and U.N. have portrayed, no evidence exists that today’s climate changes differ qualitatively from in the past. In fact, not global warming but a slight cooling has taken place over the past 10 years which clearly negates the predictions of the IPCC models. As Harper concludes, climate alarmism is unrealistic and more a function of politics than scientific truths. His belief that climate change is driven by natural cycles rather than human activity is gaining currency against the hysteria of global warming doomsayers who want to institute ill-advised energy use and taxation programs that will alter our way of life and harm our economy unnecessarily.
Climate change alarmists continue to rail against our use of the conventional sources of energy that have contributed to our economy prosperity. They have amassed significant support in Washington for “cap and trade” taxation schemes and prohibitions on drilling and energy exploration. The United States should not yield to political pressure and penalize energy use in an effort to garner new taxes. Common sense and good science should rule the day and politicians should not let more than 2,340 global warming lobbyists in Washington, clamoring for “cap and trade” regulation, allow us to seriously drag down our already flailing economy. Our economic health and growth should not be sacrificed for an unproven theory that is fast loosing support from the scientific community.
Given the present administration’s call for legislation to curb greenhouse gas emission allegedly in the service of climate control, the testimony of scientists like Dr. Harper warrants serious consideration.
Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/03/the_farce_o... at March 02, 2009 – 10:09:25 AM EST
DEBT ATTRITION PLUS
ALOHA !!
DEBT ATTRITION is effecting everyone ... everyone! Even if you have no DEBT you are feeling effects. When I say NO DEBT I mean NONE ... not even a mortgage payment. The USA and the States are cutting back on services due to DEBT ATTRITION, so even if you have no personal debt you will feel the effects of DEBT ATTRITION through your taxes and declining public services.
Paying down DEBT is one of the BEST investments for your portfolio. I honestly do not believe people look at DEBT that way.
A friend of mine inherited $250,000USD three years ago. I told him he should pay off his house which he owed $170,000USD. He didn't pay off his house and instead invested in stocks and bought stuff, went on vacations ... His portfolio is down some 40% and now he lost his job recently and is on unemployment and frets that he may lose his house unless his stock portfolio turns around. Imagine his peace of mind now had he paid off his house and had no mortgage payment.
As Craig points out I am not 100% in gold/silver ...
I hold the following:
- XOM oil
- CVX oil
- SRL(ASX)coal
- PEM(ASX)zinc
- LYM(TSX)coal/oil
- RD(TSX)manganese
- ART
- HAWAII REAL ESTATE
Really ... hard assets ... real wealth ... The kind of wealth that was all you could buy back before paper and all paper's derivatives. The kind of wealth that builds infrastructure and improves everyone's standard of living. The complete opposite of what JPM and GS sell to the World. Not only are JPM and GS selling fraud but at the same time they are trying to destroy investors appetites for "real wealth" investments, the type they don't sell. JPM and GS sell never ending supplies of FIAT ...
I find this interesting ... A BLAST FROM THE PAST!! This is from my latest weekly US TREASURY article that is published at GATA.
OBAMA STIMULUS PLAN
Lets take a trip back in time to one of the worst economic disasters the USA ever faced … The Great Depression. At that time FDR was President and he embarked on a plan to create jobs, which sounds similar to the OBAMA STIMULUS PLAN. Today Tim Geithner is the Secretary of Treasury, but back in FDR times Henry Morganthau, Jr. was Secretary of the Treasury. Here is what Morganthau said about FDR’s STIMULUS PLAN, like the Works Progress Administration (WPA), Public Works Administration (PWA) and Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC),after some eight years of enactment. FDR created jobs alright, but the unemployment rate remained in double digits for twelve years after the 1929 Stock Market Crash.
Morgenthau, testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee in May 1939: "We are spending more money than we have ever spent before and it does not work. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get jobs. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started and an enormous debt to boot."
Enormous DEBT … Back in 1939 that enormous DEBT Morganthau referred to was $40.4BIL USD. Today as of June 23, 2008 that DEBT is $11.35TRIL USD, not billion but TRILLION with a “T”!!! ...END
On June 24th, last Wednesday, according tot he US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT we spent over $10bil just on SS and MED in one day. Whats $40.4BIL?
So our elected leaders are going to try it again ...
Somehow politicians, like attorneys and inspectors, believe that if they are not doing something then they are not earning their pay or are somehow inept. How can a man or woman of POWER and PRESTIGE remain on their pedestal by doing NOTHING? We voted for ACTION and by God OBAMA owes it to us! Okay ... but I'd be quite happy if OBAMA took Michelle and the kids and went on a four year vacation along with the rest of the US CONgress ... I think at this point the Nation would be better off at the end of those four years without any of them around to inflict more damage, ergo, more pain and suffering. Just enforce the existing laws ... Isn't FRAUD still FRAUD or do we have to define it down to its last neutron? I'd say we have a great case to indict the entire US FEDERAL RESERVE under existing Constitutional law. Add in the major US Banks that operate under the US FED umbrella. Where's the CLASS ACTION lawyers? What a HUGE case ... WE THE PEOPLE vs US FED; et al; JPM, GS, C, MER, BAC!
Sometimes doing NOTHING is the right and moral thing to do! Sometimes doing NOTHING is the absolute best strategy!
Imagine if BUSH instead of attacking IRAQ for 9/11 and starting the IRAQ/AFGHANISTAN WAR had instead done NOTHING ... no invasion ... no WAR ON TERROR. In fact what if he would have done the complete opposite ... close 90% of all foreign US Military bases and brought the troops home and announced we were out of the WORLD POLICE biz. What would have been the "high road"? What would JESUS have done if he were President?
Why must the USA be the World Reserve Currency and the one military Superpower? What if we announced we were quitting voluntarily and as a Nation we were changing our priorities to serving WE THE PEOPLE of America and rebuilding America from the TOP down. We would eliminate the US FED and US Banks as we know them now and every citizen from here on out had to pay no US INCOME TAX. States would govern themselves with little interference from the US CONgress. People would have to take care of themselves and families and churches would have to support each other and anyone who could work would have to work no matter how menial the task. That would mean no WELFARE, especially to US corporations and US banks, no BAILOUTS and no US GOVERNMENT contracts.
Now that would be some radical ... CHANGE! Yet to our Founding Fathers and to all the Americans who were alive before 1913 it would sound like a normal and sane idea and not in the least RADICAL. It would be total Freedom from the US government where only States legislated laws with very little US government intervention. That is how the US CONSTITUTION was designed.
Imagine if you never had to file a 1040 form and had no payroll deductions for Federal. Imagine a World where the IRS was reduced to excise tax collection! A World where April 15th was just another day ...
DISCUSS ...
Re: Politics of CO2
ALOHA !!
MoKat ... Reminds me of the Beatles song TAXMAN! They have finally found a way to "tax air"! Healthcare reform? No "tax your pain"! How long before they start taxing our chromosomes?
BUYING TIME ... with your money! So as Bill talks of OPM in terms of HB&B we have the biggest OPM abuser the US government, as my US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT points out every day. The US government has been high on OPM(opium) since 1913!! That was the year US INCOME TAX and the US FED were invented, conveniently by the US FED ... You didn't expect them to lend on "faith and credit" did you? HA!!
IT IS ...
Re: DEBT ATTRITION PLUS
After Morgenthau gave such testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee did FDR can him? Can't quite picture Geithner making any such comments — ever. Morgenthau must have been a lot less tied to Wall St.
I don't recall ever reading of wild inflation due to Great Depression works programs or financial stimulus they required.
WWII "jobs" — both civilian and military — took away the unemployment, but all I remember of my family's depression stories were deflation with low pay and a little spending as possible. Every dollar was squeezed.
My dad had worked at a brick plant for 19 years, but there was so little building going on he went from office manager to night watchman and firing furnaces. Then the war put nearly everyone to work 10 hour days, six days a week.
I do remember rationing books, War Bonds and price controls which probably explains the lack of inflation. Taxes were outrageous and limits on exec pay. The black market was going big time especially on food direct from the farms.
We think the government is in our faces now, but it was and can get a whole lot worse.
I paid off my mortgage before I was thirty, but now that I'm not working I'm wondering how long before the real estate taxes get too high to cope with. High unemployment (back above 13% today), most companies are gone, the tax base is shrunken and sales taxes have diminished. Home owners are becoming the major source of government funding.
slosh report
Looks like the the slosh fund has gone down another 95.588 billion. Where is all that money going?
http://www.gmtfo.com/RepoReader/OMOps.aspx
Re: GOLD
Vinod,
Couldnt'a said it better myself. You have it all figured out. My family's been here well over 100 years and they STILL haven't got that much figured out, most of 'em.
Re: Politics of CO2
Our liberty is being capped and traded.
As in Animal Farm
"A nation of sheep gets ruled by Pigs"
Re: Politics of CO2 / CPRT
They should call it "scrap and trade", because that's really what it boils down to. All inefficient and/or environmentally dirty assets are traded for pennies on the dollar and converted to scrap.
I'm recommending CPRT
Re: WEN
BSI87...WEN may be priced right but they are borderline on debt and are losing gobs of money(no position). BTW, when did you get out of WNR (Western Refining)? I entered lower than you and still hold 1/2 of my position at a loss after taking a smaller loss on the other half. Now there is a company that really has a lot of debt. I should have known better but dang it, they are still very oversold per RSI7.
Re: GOLD
Whether there IS no gold shortage or not, really depends on your perception. Mostly people I have encountered say there's no shortage of gold, but absolutely insist on the woeful shortage of silver.
But its one thing to watch. Any premium of minted coins in gold over the price fix is a pretty strong indicator. Minted coins will always have some premium over spot.
The buy/sell in $US shows just where the market is at presently:
http://www.bordergold.com/index.php?option=content...
Re: Politics of CO2 / CPRT
CPRT (Copart)is very interesting. Price climbing, even a breakout with volume in early June. I am not a momentum player but this one has very good fundamentals including no debt plus great returns (assets, equity, etc). Much more so than some of the others you have posted about such as Chesapeake Energy. I would not touch that one on fundamentals or management. However, I have been and continue to be wrong on several longer term trades. Not so much on shorter term swings.
You might say that Copart is cleaning up on the train wreck of the economy but in this case it is a car wreck.
Re: WEN
Illini
What if WEN gets its debt refinanced, they start serving breakfast successfully, and a crackerjack operations guy takes over? It'll be too late to get long by then. RSI doesn't get one in at THE bottom but what I've found between the Triple RSI buy signal and the RSI capitulation play is that any bit of good news in those stocks will cause them to move up rapidly. The Barrons article won't hurt. I have a stop at 3.53 just in case. Max pain shows 5 bucks.
MCD had a similar situation several years ago. They were building too many stores, cannabilizing market share. Menus were boring. A couple CEO's died or quit. Businessweek lamented MCD which was THE bottom in the mid teens. Bought some, shoulda held a lot longer.
What everyone knows isn't worth knowing.
re:WNR. I bought too soon. I always buy too soon. I always sell too soon. But if there's a Nigerian pipeline incident or the economy looks like it's gonna zoom or something to jack oil prices up, I'd guess WNR will do well.
We'll know in the fullness of time.
Re: Minted Coin Premiums Over Spot
There is no waiting for inventory of coins on eBay, but you have to pay a price over spot:
http://goldprice.org/ebay-gold-prices/
Note that many coin dealers no longer carry the coins they advertise, such as Gold Eagles, or Krugerrands.
Re: The Elusive Trade of the Generation/ Let It Be?
"What if you had bought 30-year T-bonds paying 15% in 1981? "
Didn't Volcker make all those bonds callable after 7 or 10 years?
Re: Manipulation forecast for next week
Well Fu##ing said... But the sorry assed media is in on the scam also.... How much longer till the dam breaks..?
Re: GOLD
Vinod,
Very interesting comments on gold and the family history. As to the civil war comparison, I am not in agreement. In that horrific war, it was brother against brother in so many instances. Both believed in their cause and for the Southern boys it soon became defense of their homeland.
I don't see any internal threat to the dollar. Only external. A real threat.
Re: WEN
Local Report for Peoria,IL:
I did a search on Wendy's website for the location nearest me. Came up with one star which was an obvious bad point. It appeared to be in a subdivision of which I am familiar. The address of the nearest store is a bit more believable but not close to me.
There is a McD and a Hardees much closer. I only go for breakfast, to Hardee's and not often. They have outstanding coffee not to mention the biscuits. Better coffee than McD. That from a black coffee lover. Have Starbucks even closer but don't like flavored coffee or their basic brew. Hate $4 coffees.
Does it play in Peoria? WEN? I don't know. They do have a nice location off I-74 in East Peoria at which I have lunched with good results.
Re: Politics of CO2 / CPRT
Illini - I'm attempting to put forth new effort in selecting quality, focusing further into the future. I think I'm beginning to observe a flattening advance for financially challenged (riskier) equities. While CHK(for instance) could prove a good choice at some point, it's not likely to happen until green shoots actually take root.
This doesn't mean I'm swearing off risk, I'm simply attempting to read the road signs and trying to reposition for where we're headed(flattened/partial/limited recovery).
Perhaps NUE might be a companion candidate (albeit slightly riskier) for CPRT?
My door's always open to suggestion.
Re: WEN
I'll throw my two cents in on this one, because last year(very early) I was running around more than of late and sampled some of the fast-food dives for reasons of convenience.
1) Hardee's
2) Burger King
3) Jack in the Box
4) Taco Bell
5) McDonalds
6) KFC
7) Undetermined
8) Wendys
I found #8 too expensive, the selection seemed limited, and the beef just wasn't very good. No surprises there concerning the stock performance, lot's of room for improvement.
JP Morgan - Are they spinning something?
6/26/09
"JPMorgan strategist Thomas J. Lee said the Standard & Poor's 500 index, which has surged about 32 percent since March could fall to as low as 830 by the end of summer, according to a technical strategist at the firm. The index closed Thursday at 920.26.
"A correction, even if it is two months in duration, we believe should be used as an opportunity to build positions in Cyclicals rather than a window to buy Defensives," Lee wrote. He expects the index to rally as high as 1100 by the end of the year."
"PMorgan selected a list of 20 stocks it called its "best ideas" in the second half of the year, among them: U.S. Steel Corp., Textron Inc., Illinois Tool Works Inc., Republic Services Inc. and Sherwin Williams Co."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/JPMorgan-boosts-view...
trading UNG
The UNG chart seems to suggest that $14 is close to the bottom we will see for UNG. I already have a medium-sized "core" position in UNG at the average cost of $14.30. Now, I am thinking that if UNG declines into lower $14's once again, it will be safe to pick up some more shares at that price and then sell them at high $14's, just for a trade. So I have just placed a buy limit order at $14.25 for 400 shares (1/3 of my core position). Also, the UNG chart gives me the feeling that if UNG rises above $15, it will go up to at least its previous peak at $15.88. Therefore, I also placed a buy stop limit order for 300 shares of UNG (stop at $15, limit at $15.02), and if this order gets triggered, I will place a sell limit order at $15.75, just as a trade. If UNG rises above $15 and never looks back, then my core position will keep me happy. :)
Bank Closings Summary
Year # Banks Closed
2000 2
2001 4
2002 11
2003 3
2004 4
2005 0
2006 0
2007 4
2008 24
1st ½ 2009 45
even if gold goes to $2500
Even if gold rises to $2500, the volatility will be such that I probably won't make any money. I will constantly be selling the gold I bought in order to prevent losses of more than 2% of my portfolio. As of right now I have a net gain of zero in gold, but I haven't lost anything either, even though I started trading gold when it was around $600, because I couldn't allow myself to take losses greater than 1 or 2 percent on my open positions. The volatility just kills you. It is really a crazy investment because it has only risen from 600 to around 900 in the last three years--33% per year, yet it has the volatility of a penny stock. Unless you are day trading gold on razor thin commissions, I question whether being long makes sense. Sure it will go to $2500, but realistically, my portfolio will not show much benefit, if any. Gold stocks, on the other hand, seem to be a different story. Many stocks have doubled or tripled since December. I wish I had had the courage to buy into these then instead of wasting my time with the metal itself. Was anyone screaming that we should load up on gold stocks in December? If they were, I guess I wasn't listening. All I could do at that time is lick my wounds.
One thing I learned in the 80's is that gold goes to the sky when people think, are convinced, imagine, surmise, fantasize, that it is a good hedge against inflation, as during the period just before Volcker slammed on the brakes against inflation. It rocketed up to 850 and rocketed down to 400. From a risk/return point of view, it was therefore a lousy investment when it went to 850. Maybe those who control the price of gold see it the same way casino operaters view slot machines. Pie in the sky for the ignorant unwashed--occasional positive reinforcement to keep them coming. They hold the price below $1000 because that's how the casino rakes in the money, not because Bernanke is "afraid" that that will cause a run on the dollar--that's just casino propaganda. Maybe Jim Sinclair is one of the casino owners?
Re: WEN
I wouldn't base my stock analysis on individual locations with a small sample set.
Re: WEN
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest
Re: Manipulation forecast for next week
Cheapy, baz22,
I agree that government numbers are not the truth, never were, but there seems to be even more spin now that 24/7 media shoves it in our faces constantly.
24/7 anything becomes mind numbing — Michael Jackson's death, WMD, "conditions which could produce tornadoes", "Middle East Peace Process", GREEN everything, Larry Kudlow (If he ever stops to take a breath someone please remind him Goldielocks was a fairytale.)
Part of it is the process — legal requirements to report by a given date knowing the numbers are not complete.
Part is the inability of humans to ever predict accurately, but continue to think we can.
Part is due to the human tendency to want to please the boss. In Woodward's ode to Alan Greenspan, "Maestro", the minions set out to provide him with "proof" that productivity is up and service jobs were growing. One said before beginning the search, "I know the service sector is busy, my wife's an attorney and she's very busy."
Things like hedonic adjustment, the birth/death index, owner equivalent rent act as flexible data measures and can be invoked or ignored as the situation is programmed.
This week CBNC noted the "surge" in personal income caused an increase in spending of 0.3%, but a check of the internet showed — "May incomes surge, but savings outpace spending" (AP)
This is not just a government habit. Over the course of forty years working on corporate annual reports I noticed a big increase in the Notes to Financial Statements. This is where the bodies are buried the extra expenses are parsed and the "truth" is located.
I have always told my sons, "Question everything."
Public enemies run not rob our banks by Paul B. Farrell
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/public-enemies-ru...
Re: losing even if gold goes to $2500
Maybe you need to adjust the formula of not losing over 2% on an outstanding position. Sounds like an Elder rule, but Alex is concerned with an INITIAL loss of 2%, and moves stops up as price advances.
Kirkreport recently had interesting coverage of ATR stops, which are based on a multiple of ATR = the average true range of the security in question. Kirk looks for entry near the ATR stop (which also rises as price rises). With a volatile security, a fixed 2%-below-price stop may just be too tight.
FWIW
Re: even if gold goes to $2500
Miners - Bill has constantly been coaching us on the merits of trading the mature PM miners, and in my experience these follow chart indicators reasonably well (much better than spot).
Banro ( BAA )... any thoughts...???
large common placement last week, but production looks stable for quite sometime, and costs are reasonable... political stability of mining region ? Bought and sold in the $ 1.00's....
Re: WEN
A couple revisions for the list:
9) Dairy Queen
And I move WEN up to #7 position:
1) Hardee's
2) Burger King
3) Jack in the Box
4) Taco Bell
5) McDonalds
6) KFC
7) Wendy's
8) Undetermined
9) Dairy Queen
I always enjoyed the concepts of Bayes...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_statistics
Economic Data
Note: I'm only pointing this out for those few here who occasionally seem to be looking for a longer term view.
-----------------
I realize traders need to make decisions based on market's likely reactions to data. Each week, even though I do little short term trading, I check the Econoday reports posted in WIR.
It appears as though their reports are based on US and other government data — nearly all of which is probably skewed if not simply false.
With the Fed, Treasury, White House, and Congress all in bed with the bankers aren't we going once again down the same old path which led to this total economic malaise.
It seems to me that now more than ever the propaganda teams are trying to give a happy face to a very sick patient. After all it did move the markets up for the past few months.
From the ' Aden Sisters '........................
" At last count ( May, 2009 ), the Federal Reserve and US government have either lent, spent or guaranteed $ 12.8 Trillion to try and get the economy on track. The value of ALL gold in existence since the time of Christ is currently worth about $ 2 Trillion.... The costs to bailout the economy, and Nothing Else ( like Social Security, military, etc ), is more than SIX TIMES of all gold produced over the last 2000 years ".......
Re: WEN
bsi87- Re- Friday's volume...We know WEN was not on the preliminary delete list from the Russell, but I'm guessing it might have been, looking at the block trades at the close.
Re: Banro ( BAA )... any thoughts...???
Balance sheet looks good, book/sh is 2.7, a little low and volume is a bit thin... approaching accumulation on the downside of overshoot?
Congrats on 40th!
Congratulations on your 40th Wedding Anniversary, Bill and Pat.
Excellent WIR, once again. You mentioned, in several places, the subtle relationships between C$, US$, Yen, and gold. Sometime last week I found an article at investopedia.com that describes some interesting currency crosses and their relationship with gold and oil.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/Comm...
NOTHING NEW
ALOHA !!
From "Banking and Currency and the MONEY TRUST", by Charles A Lindberg, 1913.
"The market prices of commodities vary from day to day and often many times a day. This occurs when there is no radical difference in the proportion of the supply and the natural demand. This fact is conclusive proof that our system is controlled by manipulators and fundamentally wrong. I have sought to elucidate this problem within this volume and have suggested a plan, if adopted, would make the People the master of this World, instead of the present master - THE MONEY TRUST." END
Hasn't OBAMA read this?
Most of the MONEY TRUST powers came from an "emergency law" that was passed by CONgress in 1908 to provide emergency funds to prop up banks in order to stem any "bank runs" from the PANIC OF 1907. Hummmmmmm??? Where have I heard that tactic before?
Like RON PAUL today, Lindberg proposed to audit the National Monetary Commission and its undisclosed actions guided by JP MORGAN. In essence bankers were writing their own recommendations in 1908. Hummmmm ... that sounds familiar today!! Guess who is being given special powers to resolve the current banking crisis? When will the hen ever be allowed to guard the fox house?
The emergency law passed was the "Aldrich-Vreeland Emergency Law". The bankers at the time, which were JP MORGAN wanted "lawful money"(Hank Paulson BAILOUT)in exchange for securities and bonds tied to failed speculative entities like railroads. Those were the toxic assets, the SUBPRIME, of the past. The US FED doesn't even bother to change the script one bit ...
Here is a link to an article about that subject, where House Representative Fowler wanted the Aldrich-Vreeland Emergency Law repealed and substitute the part that deemed toxic assets like railroad bonds(DEBT)as "lawful money". He instead wanted the text of the law to use "gold" instead of "debt" as the basis for the "temporary" lawful money. This law was to expire in 1914, which gave the bankers enough time to have the Federal Reserve Act passed in 1913. Why is it that the House Of Representatives always dissents ... Is the entire SENATE in GOLDMAN SACHS pockets?
FOWLER LINK: http://tinyurl.com/mkyv84
The above link is from the NY TIMES achieve dated August 2, 1908. Just below the Fowler article are two more stories about a farmer hiring a "Pole" to shoot trespassers with red peppers and prohibition. Must have been a lot of hungry people in 1908!
The "Aldrich-Vreeland Emergency Law" also enacted the National Monetary COmmission to study the 1907 Panic and offer solutions. It was no secret that the Commission was run by JP MORGAN and other bankers. So what was the National Monetary Commission's solution to all future PANICS? Hummmmm ... It was the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 that gave us the US FEDERAL RESERVE BANK and that was the birth of money backed by DEBT, which kicked into high gear in 1971 when Nixon ended any gold backed money globally.
I find it interesting that one of Lindberg's ideas was to take the profit out of "credit" and thereby render bankers impotent. Well, that was my idea with the MONEY FLOW CHART I have posted before. ELIMINATE THE MIDDLEMAN ...
US TREASURY >>> US FED >>> WE THE PEOPLE
Even OBAMA referred to the banks as "middlemen" when he attacked their involvement in student loans. Okay ... 1+1 = ? Even OBAMA knows how to add, so I am sure he understands that he fired a shot across the bow of the US FED in an indirect manner. Funny, how nothing has happened on that student loan matter since his speech. No follow through at all ... The media? They're brain-dead ... DOA ... I would be embarrassed to be part of media today.
So the MONEY TRUST was as tenacious back then as they are now about retaining and increasing their monetary powers. There is no "negotiating" half measures with these criminals, as they will always be about "business as usual" ... "their" business comes first. The only true control must be a US CONSTITUTIONAL amendment that separates STATE from BANK. That makes it illegal for banks to be part of government in any way, even former employees are to be exempt from government service. Either that or make credit free like Lindberg proposed.
We have given these bankers the benefit of the doubt since 1907 and they have always resorted to criminal and treasonous acts. They have failed miserably to end all PANICS and they have given us money that is worthless in terms of a store of value.
Why do we persist on giving them more chances?
ELIMINATE THE US FED ...
ELIMINATE US INCOME TAXES ...
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
Re: Economic Data - Creating Wealth and Value out of Thin Air
"It appears as though their reports are based on US and other government data — nearly all of which is probably skewed if not simply false."
Perhaps, and there's a vested interest in influencing the crowd through false incentive. Spend, spend, spend, tax, tax, tax... seems to be the underlying mechanism for increasing the velocity of money, unfortunately I don't see too many indicators of where value creation fits into the puzzle.
I often wonder how well the outsource America program is doing now... looking back, it appears to have been overly successful going into the economic crisis.
"Outsourcing America
March 11, 2004
Bal Harbour, Fla.
After two decades of devastation of the U.S. manufacturing sector and the permanent loss of millions of high-wage, good benefit, middle-class jobs, America is now threatened with a similar hollowing out of its service sector. Among the millions of service jobs threatened, now high paying, professional and technical career opportunities are also at serious risk due to the growing off-shoring trend. These losses are already contributing significantly to the current jobs crisis and further decline of the middle class, even as the Bush Administration endorses the exodus of so many American jobs as a “good thing,” as the administration stated in a report by the Council of Economic Advisors signed by the president.
The labor movement has fought the flawed trade and tax policies of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s that rewarded companies for shipping American manufacturing jobs overseas. Today, we stand united in opposition to outsourcing away our best service-sector jobs as well. Like Americans everywhere, we believe that American corporations have a moral obligation to create and to keep good jobs in America. We support raising living standards around the world, but we steadfastly reject and resist any notion that improving living standards elsewhere requires sacrificing good jobs and living standards for American workers and their families."
http://www.aflcio.org/aboutus/thisistheaflcio/ecou...
Yes, obviously a "Good Thing", for sure..... I don't hear the call of this trumpet lately, not even a whimper or admission. Now we're onto bigger and better things such as global warming and health care for example... So I can only surmise that outsourcing wasn't targeting these two problems.
We don't need no stinkin' jobs!!! Now more than ever, they're after me lucky charms...
Re: NOTHING NEW
kaimu - In summary, I'd say it all distills into SOSDD. Do you suppose we are currently entering the HB&B real estate accumulation phase?
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Re: WEN
My problem with this order is it's more or less apples and oranges and as others keep pointing out, if this market were trading on fundamentals we wouldn't be where we are right now. Prices right now don't seem to be tied to fundamentals but hype and BS. This leaves us with the wisdom of Bill's system which factors in fundamentals in the Cara 100 concept but trading prices based on relative strength,technicals and volume.
Case in point....Hardees. I've been to one in my entire life. Why? Unlike MCD/BK/Jack/TB (call it YUM with KFC/Pizza Hut/Frito Lay)and WEN, Hardees itself is not nationwide or international, but if you count Carl's junior is nationwide but with far fewer locations in the west. Check out their location map. Hardees almost blocks out the map itself in the South but Carl's is much less saturated in the west. Example: We just last year got a Carl's Jr. in Olympia, WA. Previously none in WA. but still under 20 locations statewide. This likely explains the Hardees NASCAR advertising which is strong in the south.
MCD/BK/YUM eclipse that by thousands of locations worldwide.
I had Carl's since it opened when I was a teen and from my experience Hardees took the Carl's business model and products and kept their name regionally. Carl's has always been what it is now since inception while Hardees when I tried it was more like BK. Now I see they have almost the same products (six dollar burgers) but I don't know if Hardees has the Star burgers from Carl's. (No locations in the west). See map. http://www.hardees.com/locations/
If I had to pick one for investment purposes it would be YUM or MCD because of the international exposure and wider range of offerings internationally (Pizza Hut/Frito Lay/KFC/Long John Silver's). If In N'Out was publicly traded it would be a no-brainer. The only time I've seen similar demand and lines was when Carl's initially opened it's Olympia location last year, which is now died down to a normal demand while In N'Out has been around for years and still has lines out onto the streets and side streets every day from lunch until closing. I don't know what they're putting in In N'Out burgers but at every location they are always jammed, even in the middle of the stinkin' desert in California between L.A. and Sacramento.....it has the enticement of meth or crack. Once you get north of Sac it's Carl's, MCD and WEN. I've driven this a lot as of late....
Next in line, regardless of pricing or personal preference and product line is SBUX which is always busy no matter where they are, and as we all know, is more than everywhere. They and In N'Out have the best highway signage and exposure in California aside from MCD which is ubiquitous. Wish I had loaded up more SBUX around $7....
Which all proves one thing...you can't call em' entirely by your own tastes.
Re: WEN
"you can't call em' entirely by your own tastes."
You're probably correct. Maybe we'll have another opportunity to re-load the SBUX boat sub $10, but we're not the only ones, or the first, to have the thought or the desire.
I feel like I got a little blindsided, didn't play the sell-off very well at all. Practice makes perfect?
Here's a leveraged ETF to short if this is a HB&B led rally
MWN - Direxion mid cap 3X bear
split reversed Thursday, from 30 to 60.
Don't get mad, get even.
Shorting FAZ... with parabolic stop and reversal.
An example of how PSAR can be used.
http://education.wallstreetsurvivor.com/Parabolic-...
WIR
Bill,
I think the negative price action in MYGN is related to Monday's spin-off of the pharmaceutical business. Apparently trading already commenced in MYRX (approx $7).
WIR always compulsive reading!
Re: Economic Data - Creating Wealth and Value out of Thin Air
CP,
The AFL/CIO say in their 2004 article, "We were assured that the new global division of labor was both natural and benign: we would keep the high-paying, high-skilled jobs, while the workers in developing countries would do the actual work of making things."
I find this a very interesting read.
In 1993 when NAFTA was up for a vote my letter to the AFL/CIO was answered...
"You mind your business and we'll mind ours." (shortened and paraphrased) I told them not to believe the BS that only the low-end, low-pay jobs would be lost. We had already begun losing machinist jobs and manufacturing of fasteners here in Illinois in the mid to late 1980s.
The union leadership has been no better than the CEOs in caring about the average working people.
Re: Berk's BB Sell Signal Setup, Again
Monty
Thanks for the heads up. I hadn't check the Friday's close of the VIX.
Now Atilla over at xTrends does his a little different. Tonight he posted this along with a chart of VIX closes outside the BB for the past 8 months.
"Those who followed xTrends before know that I don't use conventional indicators. However there are a few exceptions but the way I use them is not conventional anyway. One of those few common indicators I watch is Bollinger Bands but I use them differently.
20 day period, 2nd standard deviation bollinger band (BB[20,2]) is a simple tool to measure the highness or lowness of the price relative to previous trades.
When the volatility index closes the day outside of BB[20,2] envelope, it indicates a climactic sentiment. This is a statistically proven signal. Except 4-sigma moves and crashes, this signal worked for ST moves with 100% accuracy over the last year or so."
http://tinyurl.com/m872sj
NEXT WEEK'S.....Economic Calendar
Tuesday, June 30:
*Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday, July 1:
*Auto Sales.
Challenger Layoff Report
*ADP Employment Report
*ISM Mfg Index
*Construction Spending
*Pending Home Sales
Thursday, July 2:
*Unemployment Claims
*Monthly Jobs Report
Friday, July 3:
* U.S. Markets closed for Independence Day holiday
[Sy Harding]
Oh so that's what's going on...
Captured from Yahoo Finance Friday...
Government stimulates savings more than spending- AP
WASHINGTON -- Households raised their savings rate to the highest level in more than 15 years in May as many used a big boost in money from the government's stimulus program to bolster nest eggs rather than to spend more.
“The biggest chunk of the income gain in May came from $250 payments for more than 50 million Americans receiving Social Security and other government benefit programs. In all, $13 billion of the one-time payments were mailed last month.”
-----------
My take on it..
A “big boost in money from the government’s stimulus program” ??? WOW $250 bucks for the nest egg!!!! I’m gonna put it in my savings account!!! Yippee!!!
So are we really to think that an increase in savings is the problem here? What if everyone blew their stupid stimulus check? It would buy them dinner, a tank of gas, and maybe a basket of groceries. Were they really expecting this to "stimulate" the economy?
Give me a break...
Re: Berk's BB Sell Signal Setup, Again
I was a day early Bev.... Not BB's but rsi relatively extreme for all three time periods.... It's the blind squirrel at work again.
http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-...
Re: Oh so that's what's going on...
Remember Bill saying about the 'stimulus' way back when, and I'm paraphrasing....'these stimulus checks all end up in the banks', it's designed to recapitalize banks.
Where are those checks cashed? Yep, banks.
Where does all the $$ go if it's spent? Yep, banks.
WE are not the focus of any of this stimulus BS, WE are the ones PAYING the stimulus, they (banksters) are the ones that lobbied for the 'stimulus' and who will end up with it.
However, I don't think the stimulus can possibly be responsible for 6.5% savings. Either the government is making numbers up again, the banks are making numbers up, or people are really scared and are actually doing the right thing.
Hard to have any confidence in any of it.
Re: Berk's BB Sell Signal Setup, Again
Craig
LOL... I did see your call the day before. Now are you expecting VIX to make a trend reversal based on these RSI readings?
[See you tomorrow at the opening bell... Bed time here.]
UNG
Mark, Are you still in UNG? It appears to be basing. Check TBT also, thinking of going long on that.
Re: UNG
Hi Shiva, Sold UNG 2 Fridays ago for a small profit, considering the size of the position. Scaled into to TBT already @ 51.11, 51.12.and 50.82. I placed a limit order for UNG Friday that didn't fill for 13.99.
I expect another shot at UNG soon, but we need to be careful as hurricane seasons nears. It could run away from us.
Still holding SLW, AUY, KGC...basically up 3% for the trio, but I think this trade might be weakening.
Looking to renter CHK, PXP, HK, DVN, XTO on a little more weakness. It seems to me, again, rotation is the name of the game and XLE is the next sector on deck.
Re: UNG
Mark, This week would be the tell for SLW, AUY, KGC.
Re: Oh so that's what's going on...
Amen! Well said... "WE are not the focus of any of this stimulus BS, WE are the ones PAYING the stimulus, they (banksters) are the ones that lobbied for the 'stimulus' and who will end up with it."
Always amuses me when Boobus Americanus states that the "government paid for this" or the "government bailed out that." Why is is so hard to understand that the government doesn't have any money (how could they?). The only money the government has is what it borrows (printed out of thin air) from the unconstitutional federal reserve with interest paid by those holding the bag (i.e. you, me and the rest of the taxpayers).
Re: Oh so that's what's going on...
When I see the Vix to fall this way and the market with low volume, I think markets will crash or will visit again in sideways
If savings number is true. Is it possible that it will keep interest rate low? Most but not all of them may wind up in US government bont. If this saving stay same or increase it will be bad news for TBT?
Re: Oh so that's what's going on...
Bev and Vinod,
Yes, my feeling is that low RSI on the vix in all three time periods indicates what it does with other securities, etc. Together with very low volume, seasonality, higher savings, low $usd, higher oil, prices for food, etc. it really says correction. If consumerism is 70% of this 'economy' then how can our own 'stimulus' work?
I think when we do see a correction Treasuries will once again be the safety play which will give us another shot at TBT and PM's and miners will correct like they have previously.
I think Bill was onto this for the last couple of weeks (note his call on TLT) and my other tell is Dave Landry being cautious and seeing set-ups for shorts in metals and energy.
Re: Oh so that's what's going on...
I would say that stimulus is winding up being parried on the commodities, especially copper and oil.
Also, there may be an intense scrum in all of the currencies that wound up declining against the dollar, but probably as a result of an attempt to defibrilate the carry trades. Not only do they have to resuscitate the recent inflationary trend bust with the massive collapse in the oil markets, but an equally large bubble collapsed in the PRDCN, the Power Reverse Dual Currency Notes in Japan.
The theory goes that in order to establish value in the currencies, you attach their value to the commodities, thus they move together. This has failed miserably, leading to further risk in to the sovereign bond markets which are already at risk. We are only just beginning to get a taste of the higher interest rates as a result of this failed plan.
The immense pressure of demand for gold against the surreptitious physical sales on the LBMA leads me to believe that most of the effort is an attempt to stave off a sovereign bond market collapse in the Eurozone. This is what happened during the crash in the UK, which subsequently crashed the price of gold, when panic bullion sales deflated the price.
But the plan for a co-ordinated bretton woods the sequel is turning into the goat fest of history.
Military Coup in Honduras
The exiled president was a close friend of Venezuela's Chavez. Chavez is ticked off after it was reported that the military roughly handled Venezuela's ambassador. Spot gold currently at 936.70.
Re: Berk's BB Sell Signal Setup, Again
Thanks Bev, just caught up with some reading on BB's this weekend. Another useful tool to add to the armoury.
http://education.wallstreetsurvivor.com/Trade-Oppo...
One might note from the article above and your provided chart that the bands have narrowed relative to recent moves in $VIX. Breakout beware, but as the guy says, in what direction?
Perhaps as Bill is doing, a scan of various stocks will help in that decision making process. The usual suspects I imagine: GS, 4 horsemen etc.
Re: Shorting FAZ... with parabolic stop and reversal.
The PSAR is a great indicator, but often if you wait for the little dots to flip you can take a beating on the day it happens. Over the years I have learned my lesson and have established other TA devices to predit the tops and bottoms before the little dots flip.
I was very short on June 19 and made a killing on June 22. I sold my shorts and went long June 22 after hours and June 25 did well with my longs. In this market you have to be nimble and the PSAR alone will not do it for you...example is June 15. I sold my long positions June 12 and avoided a bloodbath on June 15...doing well both June 15 and June 16 being short.
Also, I NEVER use stop-limits...only stops. In gaps up or down the stop-limit can kill you if the exact price you post is not hit. I calculate my stops for several different situations...and avoid whipsaws.
Summary - PSAR is a good indicator, but you need at least 4 TA's to give you timely indicators of what to do. I use PSAR, RSI, 13 dma, MACDh, and pivots.
I never invest more than 20% of my portfolio (retired 5 years ago at 55yo), invest with ETF's and hedge with mutual funds, and I am up over 18% this year.
I do love reading this talkboard, lots of great information. I do not post often, but enjoy reading. Everyone have a great short week and holiday weekend.
Comment - All of my short ETF's screamed "sell" last Thursday...so I am long for Monday.
MK
All systems go?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&yr=0&mn=...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=0&mn=...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=0&mn=...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gs&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&...
GS looks like the one to watch. It's BB's have narrowed appreciably. As Ron suggests, it's all them.
MSFT, which was overheated in distribution, looks like its just cooling its heels for the next leg up.
Re: Shorting FAZ... with parabolic stop and reversal.
MK, you lurker! You've got all this you beaut TA under your belt and you've not been sharing >:{}
Would you mind showing me your ETF chart please? Maybe showing a couple of months and the points where you've flipped from short to long? TIA.
Re: Shorting FAZ... with parabolic stop and reversal.
Hi Les,
I have shared with a few that have requested it. I am an old fashioned guy, no puts, no calls, no head and shoulders (no dandruff either!, LOL).
I am a retired electrical engineer and developed my own TA spreadsheet over time to keep me from losing spreadsheet skills. I track 40 ETF's daily, 4 data points to be entered each...so in all about 200 entries a day. The ETF's are very diversified and it keeps me in the market almost everyday. I use Schwab Streesmart Pro (although Yahoo finance can work also if SSP is down, good to have a backup!)
My spreadsheet is very intertwined and I do my best to follow it religiously and take as much emotion as possible out of it. I have great Kudos for the group at Schwab for helping me and being patient with me as I have worked on my spreadsheet. Best group to work with!
My strategy is to be where the money is going, sit and wait for big moves and grind out the others. Key is to avoid the big losses and go for the big wins.
Example: FXI (signal in parenthesis was trigger)
Hard buy 5/29 at $37.17 (PSAR little dots flipped)
Soft sell 6/11 at $39.99 (RSI exceeded 68)
Soft Buy 6/26 at $38.39 (5dma of MACDh hit bottom)(*)
(*) signal occurred on 6/23 at $35.82, but I use 5dma to avoid whipsaws)
So as of tonight (6/28) I am sitting long with 1,000 shares of FXI hoping for a nice move up. Price has crossed above 13dma of price, hopefully PSAR will trigger in next few days (love the little dots!). Also my pivot support is at $37.79 and 13dma of price is $37.75. My stop is the ave of the two - $37.77
My resistance pivot is $38.99...if FXI gets above $38.99, I go to a 6.5% stop until I get a hard or soft sell signal. RSI for FXI is tonight 59.25, so it can run to 68 and I sell...one of 4 different sell scenarios I use
Every ETF has different TA values so no two act alike. Currently, for 2009, 64% of my trades make money.
MK
Re: Shorting FAZ... with parabolic stop and reversal.
Futures do not look good tonight, but I do not put too much lost sleep into them...I do my best to place positions where I think the money will go and hope for the best! Yes, of course I do have some losers...I just let the stops limit damage and keep going. You must take emotion out of it!
My current positions (tonight) are:
TBT, TLT, TIP, UDN, DBC, GLD, UWM, UYM, EEM, FXI, SSO, TAN, EEB, and QLD
My hedges are:
MERFX, BEARX, JAFIX, FICMX, HSGFX, ARBFX, PTTDX, PSPFX, PRPFX, and CPTNX
75% in ETF's, 25% in hedge are my guidelines. Positions change daily.
MK
Re: Shorting FAZ... with parabolic stop and reversal.
thanks MK. On the question of 5dma on your MACDh, I'm guessing that when you say the MACDh hit bottom, you mean it went from negative back to zero - that is your entry point? This despite PSAR having not yet flipped. So I see from the chart that you take entry points on different signals.
I'll have to look up what MACDh is and how it works.
I just replaced the default values with "5", is that all you do to have a 5dma MACDh? Or you are using 12,26 EMA's ending in 5?
How do your hard/soft trades differ from each other?
Some anecdotal delusions of hi end home owners
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-next-...
Careful with commodities ST - Chinese declare end of stockpiling
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- A top Chinese official told state-run Caijing magazine that the government has halted its metal-stockpiling program, as the policy has achieved its aims of raising market confidence, reducing stocks and stabilizing prices, Dow Jones Newswires reported Monday. The report cited the published comments by Yu Dongming, chief of the metallurgical division in the National Development and Reform Commission's industry department, who added that China has so far amassed 590,000 metric tons of aluminum, 159,000 tons of zinc, and 235,000 tons of copper. Analysts said the news could push down metals prices in the near term, though a stimulus-driven revival in demand may limit the fall, according to the report.
Re: Careful with commodities ST - Chinese declare end of ...
watch what they do, not what they say.
Re: Careful with commodities ST - Chinese declare end of ...
Thinking sentiment bsi, thinking ST sentiment.
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/
A chart worth noting in the above URL. NYSE volume against spx performance. Worth a glance.
The analyst seems devoted to $vix. Some articles worth reading.
Re: Some anecdotal delusions of hi end home owners
Les,
Delusion seems to be the choice of the day.
In our paper today the drop in air cargo tonnage is "...expected to be over before year end." (lowest since 9/11)
Our city fathers voting to subsidize the metro center with $2 million per year (spent $23 million to refurbish it last year) and building a "River Walk" to attract people to the downtown.
This while our unemployment has just gone back up to over 13%. (It dropped a month ago to 12% from prior 14% due to unemployed people leaving if they could unload their houses.)
When you have become disillusioned I guess the choices are face reality or...
Re-illusionment.
NYGrad - you can now triple your bonheur every afternoon
3X SPX - UPRO
3X inverse - SPXU
Damn. That could be fun, hitching a ride with the PP team in action at closing.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
CTSH - Upgraded to Market Perform @ Wachovia
Re: NYGrad - you can now triple your bonheur every afternoon
Les- Sometimes I think we'll look back in 5-10 years and realize the proliferation of the 3x funds was a harbinger. Of what, I don't know. But I wonder if trading volumes and/or investor interest will be as high then- I doubt it.
Re: NYGrad - you can now triple your bonheur every afternoon
au contraire 2nd, the herd is already being primed to "go it alone". I could well see casinos taking a hit on their volume as people familiarise themselves with the Wall St Casino. These 3X are already sucking in the punters.
New tales will be spun to draw in a new generation of clients.
Re: Some anecdotal delusions of hi end home owners
"Two years ago, a household income of $100k a year could legitimately buy an $800k home with almost nothing down and afford the payments using a Pay Option ARM. Now to buy the same house, you need $160k down and an income of $200k a year. The $800k home went from the majority being able to afford it, to only a few."
Les- Was it only two years ago I posted an article about a strawberry picker earning $15,000/yr in Watsonville qualifying for a $720,000 home?
http://tinyurl.com/lv2lrg
Re: NYGrad - you can now triple your bonheur every afternoon
Les,
Don't know if you saw this, but some of the Madoff victims are suing the SEC and are on tv along with their lawyers telling everyone this system isn't safe to invest in.
There will also be counter stories warning future investors to do just the opposite.
gld
From 92.50 to 92 about as fast as it rose last week...
Re: Some anecdotal delusions of hi end home owners
Thanks Les , yes very sobering . We are stuck riding on a run away train and the engineer in the locomotive is incompetent .
Re: gld
Craig-
LOL- Gold and silver taking their morning swim. Usually the dive that refreshes, but you never know.
Re: NYGrad - you can now triple your bonheur every afternoon
WHAT! Who allowed these people on television? Didn't the presenter simply talk over their gibberish? CNBC has shown the way to silencing miscreant thinkers like Ron Paul... ;)
Re: NYGrad - you can now triple your bonheur every afternoon
I don't watch that tripe! I watch the other tripe, Bloomberg!
They use their silly timed commercials to cut them off. It was a news story on the Madoff sentencing.
Re: gld
Usually, but I've been caught before...
Twiggs: Breakout targets
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/tradi...
VIX
Hmmmmm, will you look at the VIX? Low RSI's strike again...
Looks like pros playing with a stocks inclusion in Russell 3000
UXG volume just dried up after opening.
ELN posted as possible takeover target this morning. I was wondering if the price was already built in. Got my answer.
nice call on WEN bsi87
...
Double bottom in TBT?
...
Re: nice call on WEN bsi87
thanks,
have one cancels other order. sell limit 5.00, sell stop 3.66/ limit 3.60.
Limits risk to a couple pennies.
Another old saw. Trade what u see, not what u believe.
Re: nice call on WEN bsi87
It depends on what you see.
I look at a longer term WEN chart and see a persistent downtrend.
w/o the Barron's article I think it would stay that way.
Tell us, what did you see?
Re: Shorting FAZ... with parabolic stop and reversal.
Hi Les...
I take the 5 dma of the daily close on each ETF. The bottom is the lowest negative value. Waiting to go up to zero is way too late. Same for exit, the highest positive value can be an exit. MACDh and RSI work very close together.
I use the MACDh default values of 12,26,9
My program tells me which signal is the most reliable and fastest. So far so good today, at 11:30 CST Dow is up 85, RSI's remain under 68 so I stay long (for now) and I am up about $3,500.
Have a great week. Buy low, sell high!
MK