[6:45am ET] There are probably 51 weeks a year when I wake up thinking “Thank goodness, it’s Monday”. But I will admit that, this week, I thought to myself that it’s a good time to take a break. To see the whole picture, 'the rest of the story' (as I pointed out last evening), its best done by stepping back.
Last night I got more sleep than I have had for weeks. In bed at 9:30 and up at 5:30. And when I awoke, believe me when I say I had one thought in mind: Stimulus 2.0. Washington, you see, doesn’t understand the natural trends and cycles of capital markets, nor do they give a whit. They think politics is the solution, which is why government is growing bigger, and bigger and bigger, and in the process getting more self-absorbed and the Beltway further removed from Main Street.
Believing they can get the job done, we are hearing too much from Obama, Pelsosi and Frank, and not enough from entrepreneurs and small business owners, who are the ones who employ 80% of what Washington refers to as the employable. When the people from Main Street speak up at Town Hall meetings, they are ignored or, worse, referred to as extremists, which smacks of fascism.
Whether or not its good for the US Dollar, good for future interest rates, or inflation or taxes, we are going to get jammed with Stimulus 2.0. And just like Paulson’s Folly took the equity market higher – probably 3000 points on the DJIA index -- and further – about 15 months longer in a cycle that had already peaked when Paulson moved from Goldman Sachs to his White House job as Treasury Secretary – we are about to see the 2.0 version.
To me, this is insanity, but I think when you read the current Wiki description of the new Treasury man, Teflon Tim, you will immediately see why Main Street is being dismissed.
Timothy Franz Geithner (pronounced /ˈɡaɪtnər/; born August 18, 1961) is the 75th and current United States Secretary of the Treasury, serving under President Barack Obama. He was previously the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York… Geithner's position includes a large role in directing the Federal Government's economic response to the financial crisis which began after December 2007. Specific tasks include directing the allocation of the $350 billion of Wall Street bailout funds. He is currently dealing with multiple high visibility issues, including the survival of the automobile industry, the restructuring of banks, financial institutions and insurance companies, recovery of the mortgage market, demands for protectionism, President Obama's tax changes, and relations with foreign governments that are dealing with similar crises.
Life in America is now all about politicians telling the people what’s good for them, which is that bigger is better, more power in the hands of politicians is better. The mind boggles when puppets like Fed head Ben Bernanke lie to our faces that he is going to take actions to firm up the dollar – because a stable dollar is the Fed’s mandate.
Look, the Fed has no mandate other than to protect its banks. A stable dollar, which means a stronger dollar, would cause the banks to fail. An unstable dollar is the result of a zero Fed Rate, Discount Rate and market T-Bill rate. The wealth of old people who rely on fixed income (at very long-term average interest rates) is being destroyed. Big corporations have walked away from their pension funding obligations, and they have stolen the worker’s pension money as well, so the financial position of the workers has been severely damaged. The only people doing well in America today are those in politics or in government jobs.
What is the solution? These politicians are telling us Stimulus 2.0, and in their usual back-handed fashion are telling us it is not going to happen. Bernanke too is telling us a weak dollar will not get weaker. Well, they are all lying. Whether they think it’s a white lie or not, it’s a lie.
If these Interventionists want the DJIA index back to 14,000 in a year or two, that’s what will happen. Prudent investors will have missed the boat. Who will care about a market PE multiple at 30 if the Wall Street analysts have a consensus agreement that such a ridiculous number is ok? We'll be told that Obama is the Miracle Man.
But, then, we are dealing with fascists aren’t we? The lives of Americans are now under the control of their superiors in Washington and Wall Street.
This weekend, I will be reading the Stimulus 2.0 Playbook – the marching orders for America. Whether I like it or not, I have to play along. But the minute these fascists impose a Trader Tax on me, I will be directing 100% of AuM capital to other markets.
You see, these people in Washington and Wall Street do not know what’s best for those of us who value freedom above all.
Comments
Has Britain fallen and can't get up?
[WSJ] U.K. gross domestic product dropped 0.4% in the third quarter, a much weaker reading than expected, defying expectations of a rise and crushing hopes that the economy emerged from recession in the last period. Economists had forecast a slight gain, the first quarterly rise since the first quarter of 2008.
The pound sank in reaction to the data.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125628626596003463...
To get the whole article, simply copy and paste the headline into your browser:
U.K. Economy Shrinks 0.4% in Third Quarter
Honeywell
Diversified U.S. manufacturer Honeywell posted a 15 percent drop in profit on weak demand for systems used in commercial buildings and aircraft.
The world's biggest maker of cockpit electronics on Friday reported third-quarter profit of $608 million, or 80 cents per share, compared with $719 million, or 97 cents per share, a year earlier.
Revenue fell 17 percent to $7.7 billion. It held its full-year profit target steady at $2.85 per share.
Stimulus 2.0
Bill,
As you say, "the Fed has no mandate other than to protect it's banks". And as far as a "stable dollar" is concerned, this lie has been going on in earnest for a decade starting with Robert Rubin thru Paulson, Geithner, Greenspan, Bernanke, etc. They all pay lip service to a strong dollar policy, but nothing ever happens. Meanwhile the media lobs creampuffs at the Obama Administration while they hand us the bill. I've said it before and I'll say it again, whats needed is Indictments against HB&B and their enablers!
Keeping up appearances...FRE fraud?...say it ain't so
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/23/business/23mortg...
FRE is fighting to keep secret through agreements signed in severance packages, information pertinent to fraud suits by shareholders against FRE. WOW, if a judge lets them get away with this...what did you say Bill...fascism?
We'll be back to the "C" word..confidence in government, and confidence in the public corporations.
Let us eat cake...
On another note...we have a fascist government now led by neo-marxists. I'm having trouble getting my head around that.
Re: Stimulus 2.0
Bruce Thomas,
Forty years ago, the US 100 Dollar bill was the one in greatest circulation. Afterwards it became the $1,000 bill, which I have written about in these pages. This morning on Bloomberg there was talk about a $1 million dollar bill for America.
Who cares about a State of the Nation address when the people know its little more than Zimbabwe Redux.
Re: Keeping up appearances...FRE fraud?...say it ain't so
nemo,
Didn't this government, the Fed and Wall Street fight the disclosure of which banks and other companies received taxpayer bail-out funds? These Interventionists have seized the nation the same as any other group of fascists. It's their way or the highway, and in that case, you can leave but you still owe them.
Re: Keeping up appearances...FRE fraud?...say it ain't so
“Pink Slips to Congress” campaign
Off and on, I have been hearing about a campaign to send “Pink Slips” to Congress as a not so subtle way to say “Listen to us, or prepare to get out!”
This morning, I googled the topic to see what I could find. Here is the link I used plus a tiny url link if the first doesn’t work:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=%22pink+s...
http://tinyurl.com/yle4yd2
What’s interesting to me is that supposedly either close to or more than a million “pink slips” have been sent to Congress, but if you look down through some of more than 10 pages of google links for this search topic, there doesn’t seem to be any main stream media links - "minion media?".
In any case, “pink slips”, especially if it is a real national movement, might be a quick way to register some grief with the current Congress before they usher 2.0 through Congress in the middle of a night.
spot
tof- Sinister v Slim
Tof- Sinister? No, I think everyone bet on Big Jim, thinking Slim was crazy. I have to agree with you, that it's one crazy world. And the odds of a 4000 point rally on the DJIA back in March were slim to none.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQrTGE4wwwA
Well outta south alabama came a country boy
He say i'm lookin' for a man named jim
I am a pool-shootin' boy
My name willie mccoy
But down home they call me slim
Yeah i'm lookin' for the king of 42nd street
He drivin' a drop top cadillac
Last week he took all my money
And it may sound funny
But i come to get my money back
And everybody say jack don't you know
And you don't tug on superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger
And you don't mess around with jim
"Financial Advisor" having meal w/client @ local diner
After dropping my gf to her train, I was hungry. and since i have been out of town I went to support my local nj diner.
As i ate my breakfast, i hear a conversation immediately behind me. A doctor was having a strategy meeting with his financial advisor. The sentence that triggered my ear to listen was when the broker said "You know, out of all my clients you seem to have the highest risk tolerance and I commend you for that in these tough times."
The doctor rattled off something about how much he has here and there with him already, but then started to list names of companies like verizon, then repeated twice about low interest rates and bonds being lower now, thus selling his bonds and buying stocks. Game over.
The trick with "advising" or any sales is to let the victim/client push in the dagger into his own heart. he set him up with the "you have higher risk tolerance" and the client walked right through the door voluntarily by listing potential long positions he wouldnt mind buying.
As i heard this, I frantically wrote on a napkin caratrading.com and caracommunity.com. my plan was to place this napkin in the doctors hand (i did not have my business cards). But the broker never gave the doctor the opportunity. When the doc had to make a personal phone call i thought maybe the broker would leave to the rest room or whatever. but that is like expecting a hyena taking his eyes off a wounded prey. While on his personal call, all i heard was "hey honey my financial advisor said I can't retire this yr."
it would not have been appropriate for me to butt into their meeting regardless of my intentions to save this man. So i paid my bill and walked out. I hold doctors in high regard. I hope his advisor will do right by his client and not take him to the cleaners.
Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
When the people from Main Street speak up at Town Hall meetings, they are ignored or, worse, referred to as extremists, which smacks of fascism.
Who and what meetings are you talking about, Bill?
Of course, there are famous examples of misinformed and frightened people going to meetings on health insurance reform and trying to shout down congressmen and women. Were those the actions of people who believe in a civil discourse?
And then there are the people at those ever-so-patriotic tea party events carrying signs likening Obama to Hitler. Are they not extremists?
There is certainly a lot to be angry about, Bill, and I am particularly outraged by the lack of reform and change promised by the Obama administration. We have no leadership, only politicians who have their careers as their first and foremost priority. Who are beholden to their corporate sponsors rather than the people they are supposed to represent.
It is certainly a sign of the times when the two most sincere politicians in Congress, Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich, exist on what many believe are the opposite perimeters of the political spectrum. And yet they both voted against the Iraq war and TARP.
The so-called "moderates" are killing us.
Bear market comparison charts
thanks for the updates bill. interesting charts here to see where we are at the moment compared to all bear markets since 1929. also a funny comic sure put a smile on my face even though im short and down.
http://theinflationist.com/stocks/bear-market-comp...
enjoy
new to the site
hi im new, just posted a link with an interesting comparison of the current bear market rally to all bear markets since 1929. somehow my msg disappeared.
heres the link again http://theinflationist.com/stocks/bear-market-comp...
Mr Softie
Microsoft Corp's quarterly profit fell a smaller-than-expected 18 percent on Friday.
Sales fell 14 percent to $12.92 billion
Re: Keeping up appearances...FRE fraud?...say it ain't so
Believe me...giving up my citizenship has been a growing thought.
Re: Mr Softie
MSFT up over 10% in pre-market trading.
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
"And then there are the people at those ever-so-patriotic tea party events carrying signs likening Obama to Hitler. Are they not extremists?"
So, are you denigrating the tea party event or the poor commoner that doesn't understand exactly the "why" and "how", but knows he's been betrayed?
Who knows what the future brings and what the most apt comparison will be of Obama to an historical figure or this Congress. Perhaps Stalin and the Politburo may end up more accurate
Remember...it was our beloved FDR wouldn't allow boatloads of jews off in New York and sent them back to Hitler's camps.
Re: Mr Softie
Yeh. they are gapping her up hard and will sell into this.
If there are no sellers for msft and buyers are abound, you would expect msft to be up 20% today. I cant stress how msft stock has been dead money for the past decade. a 237B market cap and its up 10% on 15.7M shares.
If hb&b is buying today with the doctor from the diner today, then msft should finish the day up 20%. "Show me the money" - Jerry Maguire
http://bit.ly/TljTh
Housebuilders
LEN +7.6%, PHM +6.5%, and TOL +4.4% may be part of Stimulus 2.0.
jl- You have QID bidding @ 21.32
...
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
I take exception to your statement-
"Of course, there are famous examples of misinformed and frightened people going to meetings on health insurance reform and trying to shout down congressmen and women."
I went to a town hall meeting and that is more than most people do. I was fairly civil except for an older, retired gent wearing his union tee shirt yelling at the gathering who voices the opposition to HR3200. So the ill informed yelling can come from both sides. I live in Massachusetts and we will be having a special election to replace the deceased Ted Kennedy. I am encouraging everyone I speak to to vote--
"NONE OF THE ABOVE"
Some will say having only one senator will hurt us but I think at this point in time none is better. I'll say it again, one of the roots of the problem is the closes ties Washington has with banks, unions, insurance............ The list can go on forever. It's the pay to play mentality. Break the concentrated power and dilute their effectiveness. How? Term limits!
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
number2son,
Yes I am referring to those people, the ones who have been beaten and don't like it. I am not referring to the others who were bussed in by the Administration to put a "civil" face on the situation.
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
I CONCUR BILL
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
Who knows what the future brings and what the most apt comparison will be of Obama to an historical figure or this Congress. Perhaps Stalin and the Politburo may end up more accurate
That's ridiculous. You lose all credibility when you suggest such a comparison.
More likely Obama turns out to be more like George W. Bush when the history of this era is written. Or Calvin Coolidge. He's no FDR, that's for sure.
Re: The eagle flies on Friday
Make that soars on Friday.
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
"bussed in by the administration"
And I thought the administration only controlled the free air waves?
Sneaky rats!
Sorry rats......
Re: Keeping up appearances...FRE fraud?...say it ain't so
ALOHA !!
Bill/Nemo - I have to go back to the Blanchard Coin lawsuit against Barrick Gold and JP Morgan, in 2003. It is publicly recorded at the US Superior Court in New Orleans,LA that JP Morgan is an agent for the US Federal Reserve and is immune from prosecution. The same immunity was extended to Barrick Gold due to its relationship with JP Morgan. Now we see JP Morgan sitting on the largest gold derivative short on the COMEX, yet JP Morgan again and again is named as custodian of various ETF gold vaults around the World. That JP Morgan is immune from prosecution and that the Blanchard Coin lawsuit was dismissed due to this immunity should in a "real World", that has contractual law and fiduciary trust as its basis, be reasonable cause to exclude JP Morgan from both trading on the COMEX and from being appointed as custodian of anything remotely resembling gold. Yet in this Orwellian World we live in JP Morgan controls practically everything financial without question from the SEC or the US Congress or the President or CNBC. In fact neither political party has shown any interest in creating a level playing field in any of the US markets. I therefore, can only conclude that every American lives in a World under which a MONEY MONOPOLY exists that controls banks and markets and politics and therefore our lives.
Lets not forget to add to the "trader tax" the upcoming 2011 substantial increase in capital gains taxes. In some categories rising by 100% with an additional 5 year holding bracket. Add that onto the already average tax rate of 54% for various taxes(income, property, excise, sales, etc) via combined Fed, State, County and City taxation. Also add in proposed "carbon taxes" and pretty soon we have taxes on air and water consumption. An interesting hypothesis by a friend of mine from GoldNerds asks if Carbon Credits are a new fiat money, essentially credit backed by nothing. It is through unending taxation and threats of property confiscation that we are "owned". The sad fact as I have uncovered is that tax revenues play a minuscule role in financing the US government's budgets. Not a single day goes by where the US Treasury Daily Statement does not disclose that tax revenues are woefully incapable of covering daily outlays and debt accumulation in America. We live beyond our means every single day at a staggering level.
How long before we start seeing political and monetary refugees fleeing America for asylum in places like Panama and Ghana where small business incentives look like America in the 1950s. We have already witnessed some "Social Security wetbacks" heading for a better living standard in Mexico and Argentina and all places South. That plan only works so long as a US Dollar has more value than a peso.
On and on with multitudes of road blocks to what was once the Land of the Free and the Brave, where the US Constitution ruled Washington DC not the US Destitution of today. It is plain to see in US Treasury documents how the "free lunch" is headed for extinction. When that happens the current POLITICAL MONOPOLY of the two party system will have nothing left to bribe voters with. Both parties will become the "plague" they are and will culminate with the final destruction of the US Dollar, which has been an ongoing US FED mandate since 1913. If that statement were false then I could still buy a home anywhere in the USA for $20,000 and a gallon of gas would still be $0.20. All along the "real" US FED mandate has been to rise to complete power on the backs of WE THE PEOPLE and a socialist government. They have executed their plan with flawless and impeccable accuracy over the past 96 years and still the masses in America are clueless as to the real culprit, the master of their demise. Yet make no mistake about it that the MONEY MONOPOLY is partnered with the POLITICAL MONOPOLY for their mutual benefit and nobody else.
Nevermind STRONG DOLLAR ... just ELIMINATE THE US FED and the MONOPOLY SYSTEM we live under will dissolve and perhaps then we can reinstate a real government that is governed by the US Constitution and not powerful egos.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Upgrades:
AMZN - to Buy @ Benchmark. PT Raised from $103 to $143
AMZN - to Outperform @ FBR - PT Raiseed from $95 to $130
AMZN - to Overweight @ Barclays
AMZN - to Buy @ Jefferies
JNPR - to Neutral @ Piper Jaffray
Downgrades:
GSK - to Hold @ Jefferies
POT - to Sector Perform @ CIBC
New:
WFMI - Cowen Initiates with an Outperform
XOM - Soleil Initiates with a Buy. PT = $90
PT Raised:
AMZN - from $108 to $150 @ JP Morgan. Overweight
Other Stocks Of Possible Interest:
GRS - Upgraded to Buy @ UBS
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
They don't bus them in. They don't have to. They use the same sales technique NYU described earlier.
Re: "Financial Advisor" having meal w/client @ local diner
NYU
Now there's a story from right down where the HB&B rubber meets the road. Thanks.
Re: new to the site
thx for posting. love that cartoon at the bottom of the story.
AS long as the Markets are ' UP ' , I don't think the
people ( of the world holding equity shares ) will say a word, for now..... All I hear from the investors ( I know ) is " why rock the boat ? things will get back to normal in due time, and I am not taking any chances. I'll leave things like they are. " Complacency... that is what the leaders want. 'FATALISTIC' is a better word. Herd the masses, fence them in, feed them. As the Stones so aptly sang, ' Gimme Shelter '.........
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
People were bused in by the Obama administration? To promote what point of view? Single payer? The public option?
Where, exactly, did you learn about this?
I understand a lot of people got upset when they were lied to by people working on behalf of the insurance industry claiming there would be "death panels" and that they would somehow lose their Medicare.
And then there were others who used the town hall meetings as an opportunity to voice their anger at the bank bailouts. No doubt they were righteous. But what about all the rest whose sole purpose was to disrupt the meeting so those with genuine concerns could not have their questions answered?
It was rather those who came to those meetings to learn more and voice their honest concerns who were truly "beaten".
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
number2son,
Sorry, I don't have the time to do your work. The facts were widely reported.
Re: Mr Softie
AMZN is soaring even higher.
And for those interested in alt energy, SunPower (SPWRA) reported results last night. A decent report, particularly given how ASPs have declined over 30% over the past year. But they are getting beaten about the face and neck because their forward guidance is at the lower end of their earlier projections.
No need to rush in where angels fear to tread
Just my take on opening shorts right now.
Re: Mr Softie
amzn is the real deal in a longer term view, like aapl. amzn knows what their dna is and they stick to their knitting. And I am pretty sure the consumer spending pie is getting smaller. the better companies like amzn do, someone else's market share is shrinking.
How much longer before another brick and mortar store like a Barnes & Noble, Borders, or PC Richards goes out of business?
If the recovery is underway why haven't new tenants filled the empty lot in my town where circuit city used to be? or the Loehmann's that went out of business? A new tenant could easily negotiate an almost risk free rental rate and take advantage of the robust consumer no? At least to take advantage of the unbelievable xmas spending.
EDIT: No way in hell am i saying i would buy amzn at these levels. nor aapl.
MSFT
Looks like the well connected who have held a 30 year position in MSFT are finally unloading their positions for a 10% gain today.
MSFT will be right back to 21.00 by next week!
Operation Get Shorty> The Fed(s) making early morning raids
...
DUG
long at 11.80 (halfway down the Kangaroo tail).
do ur own homework
AMZN/MSFT
volumes are already above the 10 day average. They're getting Ma and Pa's egg money...again.
No position.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
AMZN - upgraded at Janney from Neutral to Buy. Company is gaining market share and has increased leverage over fixed costs.
AMZN - estimates, target raised at Bernstein. Estimates were increased through 2010. Company posted a robust quarter as media sales recovered faster than expected. Market Perform rating and new $125 price target.
BMY - estimates raised at Government Sachs through 2011. Productivity initiatives are paying off. Neutral rating and $24 price target.
BRCM - estimates, target boosted at Government Sachs through 2011. Company is gaining market share in handsets. Neutral rating and new $32 price target.
JNPR - estimates raised at Government Sachs through 2011. Company is seeing higher enterprise demand. Buy rating and $32 price target.
JNPR - price target raised at Barclays to $33 from $31 on robust sales and solid operating leverage. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimate raised to $0.86 from $0.81 and to $1.28 from $1.24, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.
MCD - numbers boosted at Government Sachs. Shares of MCD now seen reaching $70. Estimates also raised, to reflect higher margins. Buy rating.
MCD - PT Raised from $62 to $64 @ Wedbush Morgan.
Churn baby, churn
Watching the TSX go from red to green faster than a stoplight.
Loved Bill's comment this morning about an interesting market.
Heck no, just plain volatile.
to nyugrad, yup, I've heard those conversations before, and the bloody results.
which is why I've stopped trusting "financial advisors" some time ago, and note most of these victims don't understand: "churn".
Re: Housebuilders
absolutely QE2.0, Stimulus 2.0, $8000/16000ForMansion2.0
These homebuilders are perhaps a money machine if people care to play it. Sell longdated calls on them, and dare them to hit those numbers.
RYL is a great vehicle for this
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
I did my work and yes, you're right, supporters were bused in to the Portsmouth event where Obama himself appeared. They were not there to prevent discourse, but to support a perspective shared by millions in this country - the need for health insurance reform. Why do you find that so objectionable?
Re: Housebuilders
beautiful strategy
Re: Mr Softie
EDIT: No way in hell am i saying i would buy amzn at these levels. nor aapl
I'm with you there.
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
number2son,
I said I don't have the time to debate you. You won't want the end result. Look at the facts. The Admin and other elected reps bussed in people to their Town Hall meetings all over America. People reported the facts here in this blog. They saw with their eyes what was happening. You have chosen to ignore the facts, but to carry on a dialog with me that you know will not end well. I am a busy person. Sorry. But it's over. Full stop.
Existing Home Sales
Released on 10/23/2009 10:00:00 AM For September, 2009
Existing Home Sales
Prior 5.10 M
Consensus 5.350 M
Consensus Range 5.210 M to 5.500 M
Actual 5.57 M
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Existing home sales in August ended four months of gains, declining 2.7 percent to a 5.10 million annual rate. The dip was split between single family homes, down 2.8 percent, and condos, down 1.6 percent. However, the supply news was a big plus in the report, with supply dropping to 8.5 months—a 2-1/2 year low and compared to July at 9.3 months. But September could return to the plus category as potential homebuyers have a looming deadline of November 30 to close a sale to qualify for first-time homebuyer tax credits.
Spike up...
..
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
Break the concentrated power and dilute their effectiveness. How? Term limits!
California offers a pretty good case in point of how term limits are not the solution. The State Legislature is dysfunctional despite this silver bullet.
Re: Mr Softie
ALOHA !!
NYU posted-"If the recovery is underway why haven't new tenants filled the empty lot in my town where circuit city used to be? or the Loehmann's that went out of business? A new tenant could easily negotiate an almost risk free rental rate and take advantage of the robust consumer no? At least to take advantage of the unbelievable xmas spending."
An excellent GROUND REPORT ... I can second that motion where I live. Even a long time retail icon like Hilo Hattie is headed for BK, while my local WAL-MART thrives! Even the tour buses that transport Asian tourists en masse include a stop at the Hilo WAL-MART. The same is true on all the islands, especially Oahu(Honolulu). Another local tour bus stop that thrives is the family owned BIG ISLAND CANDIES, which has absolutely no WAL-MART prices but their product is far superior to anything I have ever seen, even Sees. We sell our products and BIG ISLAND CANDIES products on our website and when I go over to BIG ISLAND CANDIES to stock up I try to time my visits between the Japanese tour buses. Once a single Japanese tour bus parks by the front door it is madness and mayhem for the next half hour! If BIG ISLAND CANDIES ever decided to expand off our island like SEES I believe Warren Buffet would be in the mix, but the low key family owners have no plans to expand at all. As it is there is only one BIG ISLAND CANDIES store in the entire World, but they do have a website.
I will be going to Las Vegas, NV Jan 2010 like I did last year. Last year when I was there those strip centers all over town were all half empty. I had never seen such a sight in all my life. I am wondering if my next visit will be much different. From what I am hearing from my friends who live in VEGAS it won't be. In fact they are saying you can easily buy homes there now in good neighborhoods for under $100,000USD. Hummmmm??? I recall flying in earlier this year and seeing empty new subdivisions with just model homes and tumbleweeds! Like the movie, lots of people "Leaving Las Vegas"! Perhaps the long term locals like it that way ... Overbought!
Re: Spike up...then down
..
Re: Speaking up at Town Hall Meetings
Hey, Bill, that's fine. I respect the work you do here too much to pursue this. Full stop indeed. Res ipsa loquitor.
Bernanke talking about financial education of the people...
He was basically admonishing the American people about how they are not educated about mortgages, retirement, family budgeting etc... He didn't indicate that the public is purposely kept in the dark with complexity and misinformation so the HB&B can in effect steal there money over time. They can be leveraged 30 times while the guy off the street can be leveraged maybe 3 times. There are also significant restrictions on how the little guy can trade/liquidate where the big HB&B can liquidate in a flash.
Its like playing poker with someone who has $5000 in chips, you have $100. You are the big blind...and just in case they call you and lose...and you get on a run...they can borrow more chips from the house and you can't. Oh yeah, and also they get to see one of your cards... You might win a few blinds once in a while but they fold when you have a good hand.
And I wonder how the Fed's budgeting/balance sheet is working out?
Re: Existing Home Sales
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Resales of U.S. houses jumped 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million, the highest in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors estimated Friday.
Sales as tracked by the NAR are up 24% from January's bottom, and are up 9.2% compared with a year ago.
The median forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch looked for a smaller gain to a 5.38 million annual rate from a downwardly revised 5.09 million in August. See Economic Calendar.
"Sales surged" in September, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate trade group, who gave much of the credit for the increase to the federal government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers.
"The tax credit is inducing buyers back into market," Yun said.
The real estate trade group has been lobbying Congress to extend or expand the subsidy, expires next month. To qualify, the sale must be closed by Nov. 30. The credit will be responsible for about 350,000 additional sales this year, the NAR has estimated.
About 45% of sales this year have gone to first-time buyers, Yun said.
The median sales price fell to $174,900, down 8.5% in the past year. That's the lowest year-over-year decline in more than a year.
Given a chance, the tax credit will put a floor under prices, Yun said. "As long as home prices continue to decline, I just don't see how the economy can recover," he said.
However, extension of the credit ran into a roadblock on Thursday, when the Treasury Department's inspector general testified that a significant number of claims appeared to be fraudulent.
The housing market is also being propped up by the Federal Reserve's purchases of nearly $1.5 trillion in mortgage-related securities, accounting for about 80% of the market. The Fed has said it would slow its purchases and end them by next March.
The increase in sales helped shrink inventories. The number of homes on the market fell 7.5% to 3.673 million, representing a 7.8 month supply at the September sales pace. That's the lowest inventory-sales ratio since March 2007. The inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted. Inventories usually decline in the autumn.
Distress sales, including foreclosures and short sales, accounted for 29% of sales in September.
Sales rose in all four regions, with gains of 13% in the West, 9.6% in the Midwest, 9% in the South, and 4.4% in the Northeast.
Sales of single-family homes rose 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million. Condo sales increased 9.7% to a 680,000 adjusted rate.
Re: Existing Home Sales
After Existing Home Sales, which is really good compared to consenseus, oil and gold price droped to cause market sinking.
Is it "sell on the news" attitude?
I don't think the DJIA will be permitted to cross the border
south into 9999. fwiw.
XHB response to housing news
The XHB spiked up dramatically, on big volume, to right above yesterday's high, but only for a minute. Its down now. I wonder how many stops were triggered?
So what happens again when "great housing news" gets sold?
I'm definitely nervous about what will happen when they extend the home buying bribe, but for now the trend looks down for XHB.
AMZN short-squeeze is just unbelievable.
...
Re: Existing Home Sales
I believe I read that all sales were on homes less than $200k...so that $8k home buyer credit is a lot more influential there...no wonder sales were up. Look at the median home price...
Re: XHB response to housing news
Existing-home sales increased by 9.4% to a 5.57 million annual rate in September as buyers grabbed lower prices and a tax credit about to vanish.
Operative words: "a tax credit about to vanish".
Exec pay
The Admin Pay CZAR has cleared 66 senior executives for pay above $1 million.
What country are we in anyway?
Did any of these people ever believe the govt, and not the Board of Directors, would set their pay.
GS
turning red...follow the lead?
Re: Exec pay
Does this not remind you of the mean streets of NY/LA? Say what you will about getting an education, the kids clearly see the ones who wear the gold chains, drive the Caddies, and step out with the women. Doing the right thing gets no respect in this country? All the time.
Re: Existing Home Sales
@ teamonfuego,
It's a good point. Thanks.
The "market" has talked about this but they gave "consensus" really low in order to beat it. May be the actual is lower than the "whispered" number.
Micromanagement and so much control
Aloha,What a web the bankers have woven..
Special Master for TARP Executive Compensation Issues First Ruling
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg329.htm
Re: AMZN/MSFT
wonder this is an exhaustion gap...we'll see on Monday.
SPY vs. SPX Difference this AM
This morning the SPY ETF has been priced about .07% higher than it's Index, SPX. I watch these and don't remember seeing this before, until recently. Is this normal? I suspect this is the fascists, to use today's word, running the market up at a critical time.
I think we have stimulus 2.0 now, it was not voted on, it is the use of public debt, given to the plutocrats to run the market for their own gain.
The ulcer I seem to have developed over the last year votes sell.
Change we can bereave.
VXX/EFU
glad I was around. They gunned all the sell stops below the kangaroo tail and then reversed to upside. Gotta go to work so I'll set a sell stop after today's close.
Re: Exec pay
I have to say, the whole concept of having an executive pay guy in the government dictating pay to US corporations is crazy - but it fits right in there with the virtual nationalization of those same companies. In some sense, Bill, if we're going to support these guys with public funds and turn them into government entities, why not limit their pay to government pay scales while we're at it?
"Here, you want a bailout? Ok great. Here's 50 billion, because you're too big to fail. Ah, but the catch is, you're paid on the government pay scale. Have a nice day."
Might make folks think twice about asking for a bailout. :)
Re: Existing Home Sales
I think people are asking themselves:
(a) What if this home buyer credit goes away? Given the numbers, does it go back down to where it was just like the auto industry and Cash for Clunkers?
(b) Even if it is extended, how many more people will buy a home and what happens to the higher end markets?
Its all about sustainability and the muted reaction in the markets tells me people think this isn't sustainable.
Yr end
max pain options expiration showing lower numbers for Nov and higher for Dec. Speculating that the big boys will let the markets drop, 50 DEMA?, and then reload for the year end bonuses.
Always In(?) Indicator for
Always In(?) Indicator for the Dollar
I've been looking at this "Indicator" for a while for possible use as an "up/down always in" $US currency indicator. Makes use of UUP and UDN on a swing basis. I look at the PPO panel, and when it is above the H_, be in UUP; below the PPO panel's H_, be in UDN. Currently, the $US is still in a falling mode. See chart attachment below. Construction details if anyone is interested. No current position.
(b)Guess we might also use this "Indicator" as lie detector for those Gaither/Berhanke's stronger dollar statements?(/b)
Not trading advice, use your own chart interpretations for what works for you.
spot
Re: Bernanke talking about financial education of the people...
I guess good ol Bernie heard the remarks from Max Keiser "The American peasants got to be the stupidest people in the world. They don't mind becoming peasants...then we should do nothing to stop them from sliding into a peasant class"
http://tinyurl.com/ygo73gl
What have these fools ever done to help us anyway? It was our bailout money that went back to their Banks via AIG and today their economy took a reversal.
Joe
Re: Exec pay
My point, I suppose, is that people went to work on employment contracts. I believe in contracts. The current Administration apparently believes it is bigger than contract law. Is that not another example of authoritarianism, ie, fascism, when some people are allowed to game the system, but not others?
If the system is broke, and it is, why not fix it, and these problems will go away (or at least be controllable by regulators who can bring in requests to legislators when they see situations develop that they cannot manage).
Lucky Me
I just noticed that in my largest trading account I had BGZ fill at $19. I'm now all in on that account at $18.94. Sometimes it's better to be lucky. Setting my stop right now...
Bloomberg
Pay Czar my ___
If you sleep with snakes, sooner or later you start to smell like a snake!
Feinberg will fit right in.
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Obama administration pay cuts ordered at seven taxpayer-rescued companies leave 66 executives -- about half those reviewed -- with total long-term compensation of at least $1 million.
Multimillion-dollar packages were approved for 22 employees at GMAC Inc. and 18 at Citigroup Inc., according to reports yesterday from Kenneth Feinberg, the Treasury Department pay master who ordered cuts that shift pay to long-term stock awards. Feinberg’s report on New York-based Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and five other companies getting multiple bailouts didn’t identify employees or disclose previous compensation.
The figures show that Wall Street, even after compensation was slashed by half in some cases, remains lucrative for top executives. The average American worker earned about $50,000 last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
“If these people have talents that justify those levels of compensation and Feinberg tells them you can’t have it because you’re at Citigroup or Bank of America, the next thing you know they’ll be working at Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan Chase,” said Richard Sylla, an economic and financial historian at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business in New York.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., both based in New York, have repaid U.S. aid and are not subject to Feinberg’s review.
The highest approved pay is $10.5 million for Robert Benmosche, chief executive officer of New York-based American International Group Inc., the insurer whose bailout totals $182 billion. That includes a cash salary, a so-called stock salary and long-term restricted stock. Four other AIG executives will get packages exceeding $1 million. Benmosche’s pay was previously approved.
Cash v. Stock
“There is entirely too much reliance on cash and there’s got to be a better way to tie corporate performance to long-term growth,” Feinberg said yesterday in Washington. “I’m hoping that the methodology we developed to determine compensation for these individuals might be voluntarily adopted elsewhere.”
Feinberg focused on reducing cash pay in favor of stock that can be sold beginning in 2011. For example, the three highest-paid executives at New York-based Citigroup will receive $475,000 each in salary and $9 million in total long-term pay.
At Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, 12 executives will make more than $1 million. Seven executives at Detroit-based General Motors Co., two at Chrysler Financial Corp. and one at Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler Group LLC will top $1 million, Feinberg’s reports show.
“Competitors not subject to the pay restrictions already are exploiting the situation by identifying our top performers and using pay concerns to recruit them away for fair-market compensation,” said Bank of America spokesman Scott Silvestri.
136 of 175
Feinberg, 63, analyzed pay packages for 136 employees out of 175, based on his assignment to review each company’s 25 highest-paid executives. Some executives in the jobs left the companies.
“We are pleased this decision has been issued and we will now work to comply with the plan’s requirements,” Citigroup spokesman Stephen Cohen said.
The review process by Feinberg was “fair and constructive” and will lead to a new compensation structure, Kim Fennebresque, chairman of GMAC’s compensation board, said in a statement.
“We believe the plan will enable us to retain key talent needed to continue the transformational efforts within the company and maximize the investments by our shareholders,” he said.
Re: Exec pay
Agreed. This applies to companies that received bailout money. The U.S. government is a principal shareholder.
It also, and very conveniently, looks good politically. Main Street gets a bone. But so what if a few executives have to make due on $1M this rather than $5M? The core problem remains. Corporate money is still pulling the levers of government.
Re: Existing Home Sales
teamonfuego,
Americans are the same as people everywhere. When they see fraud permitted at the highest levels, they lose respect. The $8,000 homebuyer tax credit was scammed, apparently, by 1.1 million Americans, including some 500 children who I would presume had no idea what their parents were doing in their name.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/10903837/stossel-on-h...
Our skepticism grows daily.
Re: Bloomberg
bigwad1,
The natural result of Big Govt dictating to Big Business and HB&B is that key people will leave HB&B to start up small boutiques, which is a pretty good thing, I believe.
TBT reverse indicator now?
So I am watching TBT stay afloat on a day when SPX is not doing particularly well. This is exactly the opposite of what TBT was doing in weeks past - where TBT would go down each day even in the face of gains in SPX.
We do have around 170 Billion being auctioned next week. Coupled with the threatened end of treasury buying by the Fed, might this TBT price action today be signaling a sea change in the treasury market?
Re: Exec pay
Pay Czar is not the way to go. I've worked in high level positions in 3 states where to answer public questioning about how much the Governors made, the state budgets were changed to put half or more of the Governors's actual pay in the form of a paycheck to their wives as "compensation" for their duties to be a hostess for state occasions.
I suspect that corportate CEO's know all the tricks and really don't worry about any federally appointed Czar.
One answer that might actually work is to separate Boards from appointments by the CEO's and to require that the Audit standards to be used in the upcoming year be approved by common share owners.
spot
Steve Mayer Believes We are CRASHING SOON ..
A similar interesting views and insight similar to what many of us have been talking about here in this blog for weeks now... please read and listen on to Steve Mayer
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
The Truth Comes Out
MSFT lowers revenue guidance.
About to find out if the border guard does his job
...
Out QID 21.80
$COMP filled GAP and I am afraid it could turn. Likely to early out.
Went almost unnoticed but...
... may create more waves down the road:
Friday, October 23, 2009 10:49:13 AM
(IA) WSJ: Iran has pulled away from nuclear agreement; prefers to purchase nuclear fuel needed for reactor rather than shipping uranium abroard
**Note: earlier today a US Govt Spokesman said that US has told IAEA's El-baradei that it accepts the UN proposal for Iran nuclear issue; "looks forward to Iran's reply"
I've been called a lot worst...OK
Oh MY!!! This is what Robert Downe Jr. thinks about us?, what about "downing" his idiotic Ironman suit and make believe he is flying
http://tinyurl.com/ckrnvt
Re: AMZN/MSFT
Sold MSFT at $29 this AM. Holding BRCM, which washed out my profit in MSFT. May re-deploy profits into BRCM for a bounce once selling subsides, or SPWRA.
Last year I read the early chapters of Rise and fall of the 3rd Reich. It was fascinating how Hitler's determination, guile, sleaze, underhandedness and obsessive organizing enabled him to wiggle and slip into power right under the noses of "good people" in the Reichstag and good citizens. They saw it happening, but couldn't get it together to stop him. Eerily similar to what I am reading here this AM. Good people naturally underestimate the drive that some people have to dominate and kill off competition. It's in our genes.
Send off those pink slips.
Re: The Truth Comes Out
Join the insiders and short it!
is gold intervention back?
Well certainly SOMEONE is selling gold hard today. It was doing so well up until 10 minutes ago.
Re: About to find out if the border guard does his job
Rammed the border crossing.
Driving the TYP right behind the Dodge Ram> 11.26
See how it goes.
Re: is gold intervention back?
Wham! Right into the solar plexus.
Treasurys down on concern about rate-hike timing
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys prices dropped on Friday, sending 2-year yields up the most since August, after a media report revived concerns about when the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates.
Two-year note yields /quotes/comstock/31*!ust2yr (UST2YR 0.99, +0.05, +5.56%) ,which move inversely to prices, rose 7 basis points to 0.99% in recent trading, after earlier topping 1% for the first time this month. Shorter-term securities are more sensitive to interest-rate expectations.
Ten-year note yields /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 3.45, +0.03, +0.99%) rose 4 basis points to 3.46%. A basis point is 0.01%.
In what some bond strategists called a re-hash of recent Fed speeches, a Financial Times story released during Asian trading hours intimated that the central bank may have to begin changing its language regarding how long it will keep rates low.
After every policy meeting since March, the Federal Open Market Committee has released a statement saying it anticipates "that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
"The markets will need to remember that despite the Fed's apparently elevated concern over inflation expectations, they do know that consumer wallets are still snapped shut, bank loan windows are mostly closed and unemployment is still rising," said Bill O'Donnell, head of Treasury strategy at RBS Securities. "We'll all need to remember that 'marketing' doesn't necessarily mean action."
The story noted that rising commodity prices and the weakening dollar are a "new wild card" for policy makers, though it's unlikely rates will rise before mid-2010.
It should come as no surprise that the market will experience more "front end volatility as we get closer to a hike, even if that hike is months and months away -- we think fourth-quarter of 2010 at the earliest," David Ader, head of government-bond strategy at brokerage CRT Capital Group, wrote in an email.
Investors and analyst also widely expect the Fed to begin retracting some of its easy monetary policy measures through other channels before moving the fed funds rate, which has been at a range of zero to 0.25% since December. It will withdraw liquidity from the financial system in other ways first, such as borrowing securities from the market or increasing the interest it pays on excess reserves, noted RBC Capital Markets.
Analysts have also pondered that the Fed could raise rates from the current record-low range, and still consider rates "exceptionally low." After all, a half-percentage point fed funds rate would still be the lowest at any time before the credit crisis.
The report far overshadowed the only economic report of the day, which showed resales of U.S. houses jumped 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million, the highest in more than two years and stronger than predicted by analysts surveyed by MarketWatch.
Re: is gold intervention back?
Dave, no idea whether it's connected but just to supply additional information:
Friday, October 23, 2009 9:48:24 AM
(RU) Vague dealer chatter that Russia planning to sell 45 tons of gold before the end of 2009 to plug holes in their Federal deficit
- One trading desk noted that Russia would buy up their own production and sell out to market, with a small difference (65K oz), so headline not as price sensitve
Re: Driving the TYP right behind the Dodge Ram> 11.26? OFF
11.20. No follow-through.
Dow 30
28 of 30 Dow components are red; except HPQ +0.05 and MSFT +1.82.
Let's see how it ends up today
Foreclosure crisis part II
Can someone post the link to the graph that shows the spike in mortgage interest rate resets coming in the 2010/2011.
Thanks.
Sterling gets hammered
For all the nonsense we heard from PM Gordon Brown recently, the Bank of England was the first major central bank to blink. More quantitative easing will take the Pound down and the $USD higher. If, as and when the others do this, the $USD ought to rally until those banks set higher borrowing and inter-bank rates. When they all agree to lift, say goodbye to unrealized gains in the equity market. Profits will be taken and shifted into Bonds for a while. That will start the run; then bids will dry up and prices will fall on their own until traders are happy with PE multiples and fwd revenue guidance.
Re: is gold intervention back?
Thanks Vad. GLD selloffs happened at 10am and 1115am ET, which doesn't sync with the russian rumor timestamp. But who knows?
Hmm. Back of the envelope calculation:
45 tons * 12 oz / pound * 2000 pounds / ton / 100 oz / contract = 10,800 contracts
As of 11:41 ET, there have been 116,695 GC contracts traded today.
If I were Russia, I'd sell off that gold as slowly as possible.
Re: is gold intervention back?
westcoaster,
The solar plexus you refer to is the collective gut of speculators. Prudent traders stepped aside when they waited for weakness to show up in the Pound and/or Euro, which in my view were way over-bought.
Those speculators will only do well (by holding gold/silver-based positions) if Stimulus 2.0 is on, and BIG. Otherwise, it's time to rest, and there is no manipulation going on here -- not at this point anyway.
You are right -- it was intervention by the BoE. But, intervention that some of us had been anticipating.
Re: Exec pay
Bill -
A pay "Czar" is one of those growing number of shadowy advisors surrounding Obama that has not been adequately vetted by what's left of the Press unlike traditionally appointed advisors of yore. Defense Sec Robert McNamara under JFK comes to mind. This Pay Czar is just an insider who does the President's dirty deals. I can just see Mr. Pay Czar telling those criminal CEOs that there will be no reform but just a brief hiatus from the pillage until the pions get distracted again. Love that Chicago style ...
Here's a reminder of what made the U.S. great:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4KrIMZpwCY
Re: Driving the TYP right behind the Dodge Ram> 11.26? OFF
2nd - why not scale into these positions? The volatility will kill us if we rush in and buy, so a scaling in pattern to establish a core position should the markets correct might be the better solution, no?
Re: Foreclosure crisis part II
Shameless plug. My blog post from Sept 25.
http://bit.ly/4g7vNg
EDIT: If the FHA 3.5% down payment loans continue, then subprime (which is what that is), will then again become even a larger issue after the reset issue explodes.
California witholding tax
I was informed by my employer that the State was requiring them to withhold an extra 10%. Nice scam against thsoe still employed.
1st post
Re: Foreclosure crisis part II
Kevin, may not be the one you are referring to but... I just copied your words added Graphs+ and the google search brought up plenty. like here...http://preview.tinyurl.com/dbjm8l
peace
Wow. Interesting post elsewhere. News from 1930
Slopeofhope linked to another blogger, whose mission is to post clips from the WSJ and news outlets from 1929-1930. How interesting. I just found this and wanted to share.
Source of 1930s financial news about us page:
http://bit.ly/g76hK
Edit: Slope also makes an interesting point that when comparing rail car loadings and the percentage drop of current yr vs past yr, and compare 2009 vs 1930, its eerily similar. 1930 (19%). 2009 (17.2%).
Edit 2: talk about timing. I go to Yahoo and see a headline that reads "Stocks slide as railroads, oil lose ground"
http://bit.ly/1lWqZI
Re: Driving the TYP right behind the Dodge Ram> 11.26? OFF
These are difficult trading attempts? I do not disapprove of this because you who take these trades appear to be successful. For myself I like the easy trades. In particular, I like Bill's RSI 7 approach. Its much easier, involves much less stress and provides a much greater opportunity for profit for traders like me.
Re: Driving the TYP right behind the Dodge Ram> 11.26? OFF
i like gaming some of thse leveraged etf's on a daily trade as well, but imho i would rather go with the trend, then try ad pick a top - for instance, i am gaming the faz, whle keeping a close eye on the canary i.e. g.s. - at least i feel like im on the trend side -just my two cents (probably all its worth)
Re: Driving the TYP right behind the Dodge Ram> 11.26? OFF
I hear you less...I'm looking on a larger time frame i guess.
BNI, UNP
I think these are pretty strong reminders of the disconnect between a market trading on hopes of a 35% jump in earnings next year and companies like BNI that are reminding us that the real economy is barely moving along.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Railroads-see-a-stee...
Re: Foreclosure crisis part II
via Credit Suisse...
Freddie Mac data
Freddie Mac in early August reported a surprising profit in the second quarter and indicated that it may not need additional federal aid, at least for now.
Delinquencies, which increase stress on the company's capital, jumped to 3.33 percent of its book of business in September from 3.13 percent in August and 1.22 percent in September 2008.
The multifamily delinquency rate accelerated slightly in September to 0.11 percent from 0.10 percent in August. A year earlier it was 0.01
http://www.reuters.com/article/BROKER/idUSN2549344...
Freddie's book of business is $785 billion so those delinquency increases are big dollars.
Elliott Wave
I have read enough to quench my curiousity. not an expert by any means.
But since i am not too busy i did a quick crayon drawing of how the day might play out.
So far not so bad. this is really not info for trading.
EDIT: I am all for looking at past price action and conditions to learn potential setups in the future. But i always felt looking at a chart in hindsight and picking your wave points is too subjective and junk for trying to measure future outcome. That is why i tried to plot the future price. vs going backward.
My iniitial 1 week read is it may serve as a great overall mkt direction compass, if used as a final measure along with many other more reliable tech indicators and fibs. For me personally, Ell Wave and fibs are prob last of the tools i pull out of the tool box. This is just my learning journey i guess.
Re: Steve Mayer Believes We are CRASHING SOON ..
analyst65... thanks for the link. I have heard Mr Mayer speak before he comes across as someone who really knows what is going on.
Been watching this chart unfold now for some time. A very good trader by the name of Zig Zag has put this together. http://tinyurl.com/yg7yjmm
Re: Foreclosure crisis part II
NYUGrad and others.
Thank you. Exactly what I was looking for.
Here is a major heads up
By Mr Karl Denninger
"Those who are short dollars (synthetically or in the actual market) need to beware - if I am reading this correctly you're about to get a really ugly surprise."
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1539-P...
I see a big trade in this.
Just a reminder that Nov 9 is another Bradley Turn Date along with a McHugh phi turn date. For Elliott Wavers... looks the dreaded P3 is near.
Re: Elliott Wave
updated crayon
in SRS at $9.65
I just purchased a bunch of SRS at $9.65 for an intra-day fun, having the highest point between two slumps on its chart ($9.60) as a mental stop.
closed the FAZ position
When I was having my breakfast a little while ago, I saw a second higher low taking place in the Dow. So I figured it was time to take off my FAZ position, since I am going on vacation next week and I don't want to worry about a large and volatile position being left behind. So I sold at $19.10 the FAZ position I opened yesterday at the cost basis of $19.10. :) Also, this morning a sell limit order was hit at $18.92 for the FAZ shares I added yesterday after hours at $18.42.
Naturally, as soon as I sold my FAZ, it exploded up, but that's fine, as I still don't want to deal with it next week. I have a full sized SRS position (and also a short position in November $9 SRS puts), so if the market crashes while I am on vacation, I'll get a consolation prize. :)
Re: Elliott Wave
That looks like about 7 or 8 waves down...no? why are you ignoring some spikes and not others?
Re: Elliott Wave
From my understanding its all subjective. thus not exact-price friendly. thus the unreliablility.
Its like giving somone directions by using "go down, then left, up the hill right, etc" vs street names and coordinates via gps.
SRS off at $9.63
I think it was wrong to open a short after a strong and quick slide in the Dow. A minor rebound might easily take place now. Professionals make several attempts before nailing the trade they want, right? I'll wait to see if a rebound will take place and will then turn down -- that might be a better time to open a large short.
Re: Elliott Wave
ignoring the small spikes, seems like 1 should be moved to 3, 2 moved to 4 and 3 to 5, implying a 4 up soon, before a 5 down EOD... just my take :)
Re: in SRS at $9.65
Be careful, David... It ( SRS ) is just not moving the way ' it should ' (per contra rationale)...
Watching the Tech Big Ten...
Several times in previous weeks Bill Cara has advocated watching the Big Ten of Technology for the tipping point. From the way I look at charts, today is the day.
Uptrend: AAPL, MSFT, GOOG
Neutral: CSCO
Downtrend: QCOM, RIMM, INTC, ORCL, GILD, EBAY
By my count, the majority are now rolling over...
Re: closed the FAZ position
I like it - traded faz twice today - in 18.75 out 18.90 - in 18.97 out 19.13 - cut my profits short on both, but a booked profit is better than a "woulda, coulda, shoulda" - been beat up on the srs last month, and beginning of this one - i like your strategy/gamble for the weekend - im just flabergasted as to the resilience of the real estate industry
in DXD at $33.13
I see that the Dow is slipping again -- THIS is the time to open the short, after the short rebound worked itself out. I chose DXD this time because its chart had a clear consolidation at $33.10 for a while. SRS chart was not so clear to me at that point.
Edit: DXD also has a clear stop level at $33.
Re: closed the FAZ position
hows about a real roll of the dice - short the nasdaq over the weekend - using the qid or rew or typ?
Re: Driving the TYP right behind the Dodge Ram> 11.26? OFF
"2nd - why not scale into these positions? The volatility will kill us if we rush in and buy, so a scaling in pattern to establish a core position should the markets correct might be the better solution, no?"
tof- I am scaling into these positions, which has kept my losses (when wrong) quite acceptable (2 figures in this case). I have revised my strategy from adding on weakness, to adding on strength (at least, most of the time).
denniger's dollar rebound
This time I'm not going to say its ME looking for the dollar to rebound, I'm going to point the finger at Denniger instead, because you guys have probably become tired of hearing me say each week how close we are to the moment where the buck will once again rise from the ashes.
But I did like his trade. I looked at the chart for UUP, and I notice that its low for 2008 was 22, which we are a little way away from. We're bouncing between buy alerts and distribution zone with UUP, and I think it's finally time to make a direct trade. So I wrote some March 22 UUP puts, figuring if they get executed, I'll end up with a bunch of UUP at the '08 low. And if it bounces around here for the next few months, decay is my friend and the options will expire worthless.
Pay Czar
What I find interesting about this is the "title" given to this person. In the old days, in the land of the free, the title would be something like regulator or commissioner. There is no longer any need for pretense. It is the same thing as the CEO's of the banks not showing up to Obama's recent meeting that was discussed here. It is pretty clear that the way things are now is, take it or leave it, COMRADE!
stopped out of DXD at $32.99
This has erased the minor profit I had on my FAZ trade between yesterday and today, so I am going back to work now.
Re: Sterling gets hammered
Thank you, Bill... My Forex buddy sends a big ' Thank You '... Have a great weekend... A friend and his wife are island hopping down your way next week... hope the weather is good for all. I told him to rest up, as he will be helping me build my house in a few... Thanks for all..
Re: stopped out of DXD at $32.99
so I am going back to work now
Leaving the playing field and going back to the weight room? Or leaving the weight room and going back to the playing field? ;)
Re: stopped out of DXD at $32.99
Admit it, man. You're just going back to the waiting room.
AMZN is a perfect example of why one should exit the wrong
side of a short squeeze immediately and with no regrets.
Green close?
Man, even I don't really believe it (although I am giving it credence by staying out of the line of fire). Just throwing it out there.
Re: Elliott Wave
Here is a person who does an excellent job on EW.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
Nose around.
VOTE FOR ME
Truth is, it doesn't matter if you vote...or for who you do vote.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UErR7i2onW0
first post
After watching for about two years, I think it's time for me to, at least, try to contribute a little. This article by Hussman seems to be on target with the general thoughts posted here. I think it's a good synopsis and will help bolster resolve, while reminding us of the need to remain flexible. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091019.htm
Re: Green close?
2nd, I'm not seeing any weakness in the dollar today, and we seem to be back to tracking the buck for SPX. In fact, we're closer to a dollar breakout than otherwise.
Re: AMZN is a perfect example of why one should exit the wrong
I was going to suggest this:
Print out today's AMZN chart, keep it at your desk and take a look at it every time you catch yourself thinking about any stock or index:
"It's so high, I need to short it. It just can't go any higher."
On the reverse side write in capital letters in red one of two versions:
If you speak English: NEVER GO AGAINST THE TREND
If you speak Threeish: OVERBOUGHT GETS OVERBOUGHTER UNTIL IT BECOMES OVERBOGHTEST... AND THEN GETS BOUGHT A LITTLE MORE
Re: Here is a major heads up
Bev- Just read Denninger's comments and and IF he's right, or near correct,I'm now asking WWBD (What would Bill do)? Any thoughts from yourself or others?
s
GS
They couldn't take it lower than the low from two days ago.
Alternative to Watching paint dry, Vote for Cara!
http://screencast.com/t/xZKbxhY6
While watching paint dry, cast your vote for your favorite blog, see results above (so far), and cast vote below. So far Slope is winning, with a pretty much 3 way tie for second.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
Executives
How could you miss the corporate executives?
"The only people doing well in America today are those in politics or in government jobs."
Re: AMZN is a perfect example of why one should exit the wrong
definitely :) dont fight trend and dont fight fed.
and now that we've got huge volume and a short squeeze i definitely like the Apr $105 puts for$7.60 :)
Re: denniger's dollar rebound
I finally capitulated and sold off half of my UUP. So that means it is probably time for UUP to go way up.
But as a leveraged trading instrument...which loses value over time, these are best suited for short term trades (day to maybe a few week), or you get hit with the theta burn.
If I got this wrong please advise.
Re: AMZN is a perfect example of why one should exit the wrong
Print out today's AMZN chart, keep it at your desk and take a look at it every time you catch yourself thinking about any stock or index:
"It's so high, I need to short it. It just can't go any higher."
For a more 'opinionless' decision tool which also considers the counterposition, on the back of the sheet print out the last few days of AGU.TO. For maximum torment, hang chart with string in a breezy area of the casino. :-)
Re: Pay Czar
double entry
Re: Pay Czar
Comrade JesseSLC -
Good point. Did you know Czar or Tsar is the Russian translation of Caesar or Kaiser from the Holy Roman Empire und Deutchland prior to der Fuhrer.
SPY puts
pulled them off at $2.92 to $3.05 that I bought at $2.7 down to $2.0 the past couple of days.
Re: Green close?/ The end of the crystal ball
...
BGZ
Sold at $19.82 all of my shares that I bought at $18.9 to $19 the past couple of days.
I need a break.
Re: VOTE FOR ME
I think the most effective vote is accomplished with one's wallet.
Czars and Politburo's
BERNANKE CALLS FOR NEW RULES AND REGULATIONS
As opposition to the Fed spreads throughout the country and Ron Paul's bill gains support, Comrade Ben must have decided that the best defense is a strong offense. He urged Congress to overhaul the financial regulatory system and write new laws greatly expanding the power of the Fed.He not only wants to protect you from future financial crisis and he'll protect your gift cards and overdraft charges, and your reverse mortgage too.... no joke.....read on.
WASHINGTON (AP)
"With the financial turmoil abating, now is the time for policymakers to take action to reduce the probability and severity of any future crises," Bernanke said in remarks to a Fed conference in Chatham, Mass.
For its part, the Fed has been taking steps to strengthen oversight of banks, sharpen consumer protections and on Thursday unveiled a sweeping proposal to police banks' pay policies to make sure they don't encourage top executives and other employees to take reckless gambles.
But Congress needs to step in and close regulatory gaps and make other changes that only lawmakers have the power to do, Bernanke said.
At the top of his list: Congress must set up a mechanism -- along the lines of what the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. does with troubled banks -- to safely wind down big financial firms whose failure could endanger the entire system.
And the costs for such a mechanism should be paid through an assessment on the financial industry, not by taxpayers, Bernanke said.
Moreover, Congress needs to set up better systems for regulators to monitor risks lurking in the financial system, he said.
He also said the Fed is working on rules to better safeguard consumers from abuses when it comes to overdraft protection, reverse mortgages and gift cards. But he didn't get into a public debate over whether the Fed -- or a new consumer agency -- is best equipped to do the job.
To beef up banking supervision, Bernanke again said regulators are considering assessing a capital surcharge on big financial companies or requiring that a greater share of their capital be common equity. The Fed also supports efforts for banks to build larger capital buffers in good times and allow them to be drawn down in bad times.
A House panel on Thursday approved a piece of the plan, creating a federal agency devoted to protecting consumers from predatory lending, abusive overdraft fees and unfair rate hikes
http://tinyurl.com/yzv4nqh
END THE FED
Next week horror
So, here is my biggest defeat of today and the horror expecting me next week. Around 3:15 I went out on a limb and said "no 120 or 119 for AMZN." Blood has boiled, bets were made... of course AMZN had to go ahead on last minutes and tag 119. Result - I have no right to misspell for three days next week.
The only consolation is, if it went to 120 it would be whole week - and I don't know how I'd handle that. I have hard time envisioning myself putting up with 3 days...
Chart Pattern Trader public charts
http://bit.ly/Wu4pH
technical analysis is really amazing. How prices act like magnets to support/resistance, trenlines and ma's etc. then you add indicators and its really fascinating. Maybe they teach this stuff now at NYU Stern, but not when i was there.
I enjoy watching support being broken with the positions i have built. This was a great week as i was able to buy puts cheap and buy inverse etf's calls cheap during the rally frenzies. meanwhile the near term trend is slowly topping out the longer term uptrend from March.
Navid mentioned above selling longdated calls on home builders who have had suspect rises. I like amazon's business. after monday, maybe I will look into selling long dated call options on amzn? just a thought.
Can't believe its Friday already.
Re: Chart Pattern Trader public charts
I am waiting for 8k/16kHousingCredit2.0 and the homebuilders to have another euphoric rise - RYL at $23 is a good mark before doing that.
FYI: AMZN naked calls are risky. You have to have a lot of margin room.
I sold Apr $140 calls for $4.7. If the stock were to rise to $140 in the coming weeks they might be worth a few times that (calls could be $20+). Have to have the margin room to do that and hold on. Finally, if in April the stock is at $140 and you get called out, make sure your broker will turn it into a short position. For example, if I got called away at $150 - broker will turn this into a short position at $150 - giving me a 2nd life - even a chance to make more money.
Re: Chart Pattern Trader public charts
good logic for survival. I was actually thinking what you typed. Thus prob wont. I am really happy with the way my positions are building though.
Re: Czars and Politburo's
Wow - this is a sweeping change from the Federal Reserve's old policy of denying that any such systemic risk could possibly exist until the barn was already burning to the ground and the plane had crashed into the side of the mountain.
Re: Czars and Politburo's
Here's some more on financial regulation from Comrade Barney Frank, reaffirming the role of the FED.
How did we end up with this guy deciding our financial future? Levying a stupid tax on the voters of his district in
Taxachussets seems appropriate.
from Reuters:
One idea that does seem to be gaining steam in the Senate is the move to consolidate all federal banking supervision into one super agency. Currently, four regulators share responsibility.
Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, is a leading advocate of the consolidation, and has said he will push it forward despite regulators' reservations.
Frank, however, does not think it will pass.
"There is no remote chance of it happening," he said.
He said lawmakers will likely merge the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, but allow the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp to keep their supervisory roles.
END THE FED
Re: Czars and Politburo's
This "innovation" is perhaps the biggest most disgusting thing one can imagine.
The FED now under public scrutiny is finding ways to cement its position - as Policeman of the Banks.
This flies in the face of logic
1) The entire stated purpose of the Fed was to prevent banking panics and great depressions
2) The banks own THE FED. Simulatenously the large banks are "members" of the FED. This is a scam.
The FED wants to remain in control of the creation of money, with all the power to profit (as a for profit entity) and influence the country. The BANKS HOPE THE FED is the POLICEMAN.
Imagine the banksters, wearing a Ben Bernanke mask, wearing a Policeman costume! Happy halloween!
Intel kicked off earnings w/their tech-tacular report on Oct 15
Correct?
Here is the SPY, QQQQ, USD, and Semis and some others, since Oct 13th.
SPY: http://bit.ly/1sQ9Rf
QQQQ: http://bit.ly/4zfhit
$SOX: http://bit.ly/3OVIyl
XLY: http://bit.ly/4ylCTa
$bkx: http://bit.ly/38Xn6q
vix: http://bit.ly/4BMrox
GLD: http://bit.ly/47Ku8E
USD: http://bit.ly/2VNkb9
they've thrown everything at this market. INTC, Triple on a few banks earnings, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, & even a short squeeze on AMZN. Forgot to add we also captured 10,000 in that period as well. And you have to add those bullish headlines.
Yet the markets aren't soaring.
Have a great weeekend everyone.
Look-out pirates!
U.S. Navy warship at 44 knots (or 52 mph)
No, it’s not BC that’s in the mix for production. It’s between GD and LMT.
BATH, Maine – The Navy's need for speed is being answered by a pair of warships that have reached freeway speeds during testing at sea.
Independence, a 418-foot warship built in Alabama, boasts a top speed in excess of 45 knots, or about 52 mph, and sustained 44 knots for four hours during builder trials that wrapped up this month off the Gulf Coast. The 378-foot Freedom, a ship built in Wisconsin by a competing defense contractor, has put up similar numbers.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_speedy_warship
Re: Chart Pattern Trader public charts
technical analysis is really amazing.
Not according to these guys:
"Technical analysis is not consistently profitable in the 49 countries that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that technical analysis compliments other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation."
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id...
Re: Czars and Politburo's
Aloha navid,
When I was a child growing up in the midwest USA about the time of the hide under your desk when a nuclear bomb hits era; they would show these short films to us the students. The one I still see in my minds eye had middle class families waking up on a sunny day walking outside the front door to their front porches and seeing rows of straight lined marchers in formation down mainstreet USA. Some how we had lost THE war overnight without a fight and the country now belonged to others. I did not know why that film affected me so greatly as a child feeling real fear from a message for the first time in my life,
but throughout my life that same gutt feeling has steered me from tangible real danger. Just now as I read your post it felt like deja vue but was a film coming to life . I always hated Halloween.
Re: Chart Pattern Trader public charts
Aloha NYUGrad ,
Mahalo for the charts you brought to our attention. This gentleman has made so much "gel" for me. When I bought QID at end of day too high early in the week I knew it was too high automaticly because of his videos and your post and could see where the movement of the stock would likely go. This allowed me to wait with confidence for the first time and still sell with a small profit. This week I was able to learn so much buy going in and out of QID that it was enjoyable for the first time. Your words of welcome gave me confidence and allowed me to take down a mental wall that had kept what I was learning in my head and not in my trades.
This week feels different, I have more confidence because of Bill and all
of you I can "begin" too "see clearly now" if I knew how I would post a video of one of my favorite songs.
Another resource to trade USD strength or weakness
FWIW, you don’t have to open a separate forex or futures account to trade some FX options.
No, I'm not writing about the currency ETFs that also offer options.
Two exchanges, ISE (US dollar settled) and PHLX (dominated in foreign currency), began trading FX options about two years ago. Both are European style. Some brokers may now allow you access to trade these options through your brokerage account.
I haven’t checked the PHLX, but on the ISE, you can trade the USD vs. 9 different currencies.
For example, ISE symbol for USD vs. British sterling pound is $BPX.
If bullish on the dollar vs. the pound, buy calls or short puts; if bearish, buy puts or short calls.
Posted as information only. Please DOYDD. Currencies can be very volatile and are not for everyone.
Re: Next week horror
That's nothing, man. I went out on a limb and called a green close. I'm going to have to misspell at least one word every day for three days next week.
AMZN- I almost went long this morning. That's the thing about gambling (which is what playing a short squeeze is)- the more you think, the less likely you are to bet correctly.
Saturday I go out to play
Best to all for the weekend. Don't forget to play. Here's Eva Cassidy to start you off:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIaHrU8Hetk
Re: Chart Pattern Trader public charts
jl-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtiXiYMS86U
Re: Chart Pattern Trader public charts
ANN- I have to hand it to you> You're a very independent thinker and call things the way you see them.
A Conversation with Art Cashin, UBS
Not sure if someone already posted this link below, but it's a very interesting one, listen on..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33432400/
Re: Chart Pattern Trader public charts
2nd_ave you made me smile, I'll buy the olive for your martini any day.
Re: Executives
I noted the same absence, PreparedInvestor and 1st time poster. Bill did not include in his swipe the quite large and very powerful corporate aristocracy. They are the ones, in fact, that have dominated the Congress through lobbying, bribes and campaign contributions. They are the major source of the dollars that lead to corruption.
I do think that Bill has indited the HB&B corporations though.
Recent Ahhh moment using Stockcharts
I recently subscribed to Stockcharts.com
I was reading this chart
http://www.investedcentral.com/public/975.cfm?awt_...
I guess you can do the same thing in stockcharts by using : between stock symbols or indexes to compare (ratios).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLP:XLY&p=W&b=5&g...
FDIC Sheila Bair video on FDIC homepage
http://www.fdic.gov/
it is so surreal to me. We passed 100 banks gone bad today. And as she speaks about "your money is safe" sounds just like "U.S has a strong dollar policy."
She also says at the 2 minute marker...are you ready for this?
"In short we cannot run out of money" WOW really!? how lucky for you!
what a time in the lives of all Americans. Can you imagine people who were old enough to remember the Depression still young enough to potentially live through another one?
its just wild to me that the chief of our FDIC is basically pandering to the American public.
baseball bat wielding southerner holds forth on the economy
Featuring lots of profanity and a grossly mistreated printer, this is a fascinating juxtaposition of a lucid recitation of economic bad news from someone who appears to be one of the less bright NASCAR dads. But appearances are deceiving. He punctuates many of his more egregious points with a swing of the bat. Nice swing, by the way.
Are we angry yet? He is. Perhaps we all should be.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-twLAaMD9w
Seriously profane. He must be a trader.
Market Musing and German Shepherds
I have been doing very little trading or even blogging participation for around 2 weeks. My theory---this market will keep going up until it decides not to keep going up. But being long has extreme risk, no need to play that game except for some calender spreads I did selling puts near month, and buying puts June 2010. Wednesday, I took a position in SSG, giving credit to Tim Knight for the original idea, and further confirmed by my own charts that confirmed the position strongly. This is a double short on Semi-Conductors.Also took puts on MS today. Paid 1.90 and it immediately moved to 2.10 which is nice. Now I can set a contingent stop on it....if MS equity price rises to X.XX, the ask 1.95 for the puts. This should lock in a profit.I rarely buy front month puts, you should always get at least 60 days to stay out of Theta Burn. If you don't know what Theta Burn (TB) is, you should not be playing options.Everytime I do an update or upgrade to the Chart of Charts, it take several hours of fairly intense number crunching. I missed last weekend, but an inspection of the data told me enough without plotting it....no definitive up or down trend. I will try to update Chart of Charts this weekend. It shows an annual return in the low to high 50% range. It keeps you out of trouble, minimizing losses and getting most of the upside.The SPY put in a CONFIRMED 3 Outside Down Day (I noticed this possibility on Wednesday, and published here). http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/recent-... Today confirmed it. However, this is kind of stretching the data since I am using a 3 day aggregation period for my candles. Quite unorthodox. And for more info on these candles, check out these sites. http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs44.asp 3 Outside Down Day -- See Below, one of the Strongest Patternshttp://www.candlesticker.com/Bearish.asp Finally, Bulkowski torturing the data relentlessly (but no water boarding).http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeOutsideDown.html3 day candle, 3 Outside Down, 3 Doors Down.....and bulls may be looking to get their "Nickelback"--If you understand the sequence of logic in that sentence, you are either quite hip and smart, or maybe just need some counseling.http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&sourc...And since we are on that subject, the band Nickelback owns one of the siblings of my cherished little puppy dog. Mine is the small one in the picture, the big one is her older brother from a different litter (also my dog).http://screencast.com/t/sshvFUhI
Re: Here is a major heads up
Bev, I don't see clear signals in the credit market that it is about to seize up. On the one hand (pointing in the negative direction), the TED spread has been slowly increasing since September 10. The BBB CMBX prices have really collapsed since their September 22 peak. The Fed made some very large increases to the Adjusted Monetary Base during the last month, taking it strongly above the May highs -- why would they do it if they thought that things are really improving in the financial world? Finally, there is something new in the equities world: there is a clear divergence, for the first time I think since March, between $NDX and its AD line:
http://www.masterdata.com/Reports/Combined/ADLine/Daily/$ndx.htm
Similarly, for $SPX:
http://www.masterdata.com/Reports/Combined/ADLine/Daily/$spx.htm
So the market breadth, which has been the very strong since March, is finally giving warning signs.
But then, HYG is basically at its 7-month high, and the AAA CMBX prices have been rebounding since the mid-August sell-off and have almost reached their 7-month high. The JPY/EUR chart is also basically at its 7-month high.
I would want to see a clear breakdown in the last 3 indicators before going significantly short. It would also nice to see a breakdown in the price of copper (at least down to $2.90/lb), as it is also a good leading economic indicator.
Saturday Morning Coffee: The Smartest Man in the World
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/saturday-mornin...
Have a great weekend. I plan to write on some Gann stuff this weekend in response to questions...yeah, and if I'm so smart, why do I have to go off to the ICU now?
Roubini : Big Crash Coming, But I Don't Believe In Gold
From Tech Ticker at Yahoo Finance. For some unknown reason, I can't link it.
Nouriel Roubini believes that a "wall of liquidity" is chasing all kinds of assets, yet once the economy disappoints expectations, it will all come crashing down.
Yet for Dr. Doom, gold isn't the answer.
According to him, despite the temporarily asset bubbles right now, we're still in a deflationary world and we'll realize it soon enough once growth stagnates and all kinds of inflated asset categories come falling down.
IndexUniverse: Roubini: I don’t believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there’s slack in the labor markets with unemployment peeking above 10 percent in all the advanced economies. So there’s no inflation, and there’s not going to be for the time being.
The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon, if you have another depression. But we’ve avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30 percent unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don’t see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon.
-----------
I'd be interested in reading the Cara Community take on Roubini's opinion.
Re: FDIC Sheila Bair video on FDIC homepage
ALOHA !!
SHEILA BAIR VIDEO
In two words ... SHE LIES!
Bair says that the FDIC only relies on banks and not US taxpayers. Wrong ... Every year the DIF(Deposit Insurance Fund)loads up on taxpayer money that funds the same FDIC insured banks.
She also mentions the S&L Crisis(Savings & Loan)of the 1980s where over 500 banks failed, yet the US Treasury Daily Statement just reported last week that the US Treasury paid nearly $600MIL USD to REFCORP, the Resolution Funding Corp, which is still administering funds to pay off the S&L Crisis of 20 years ago. They still are issuing "stripped" bonds for REFCORP.
Here it is: Pmt to Resolution Funding Corp 583 583 583
She also lies about just over 100 banks have failed. Yes that is true if you only count bank failures this year but since 2007 there have been 178 bank failures.
Finally, yes, she does tell the truth about never having to worry about running out of money. Even Zimbabwe has never run out of money! Did FDR ever run out of money during the Great Depression?
In fact Mises states ... "No nation need fear at any time to have less money than it needs." From his book entitled "The Theory Of Money and Credit", published in 1912. Apparently the US FED only read page 208 of that book where the abundance of money is stated. So yes, Sheila, you will never run out of money because you have a $500BIL credit line and you ARE THE GOVERNMENT! It's too bad the banks customers and American citizens cannot state that "we will not run out of money"! These infinitely monied bureaucrats that sit around running up unending DEBT for our future generations to pay just do not get it!
Here is what bureaucrats fail to see ... GUARANTEES are "just that"! They GUARANTEE we will have to bailout fraudulent bank management for eternity or until there is a monetary collapse. As they say in the auto industry ... "whichever comes first"!
GOOD JOB BAIRIE!
Re: Roubini : Big Crash Coming, But I Don't Believe In Gold
ALOHA !!
Roubini is yet another one dimensional economist who misses the bigger picture of monetary risk. It has nothing to do with inflation/deflation it has a great deal more to do with debt "liabilities" and the C WORD of monetary risk.
I am amazed he has yet viewed a US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT. When I first saw a US Treasury Daily Statement I said to myself ... "SELF, LOOK AT ALL THOSE STACKED LIABILITIES ... EVEN THE ASSETS ARE LIABILITIES"! The liability side is HUGE, the asset side is tiny, if you look past the combined "marketable" and "non-marketable" US DEBT, which boils down to income/payroll tax revenues and excise tax revenues. In actuality a true accountant would look at NET tax revenues, which is even a much smaller number than actual gross tax revenues. Gross tax revenues is all that is ever broadcast in the mainstream, but everyone always forgets that the US government has to issue something we US taxpayers are very fond of ... "tax refunds"!
Who among us when we do our budgets counts credit card "available credit" as "income"? The US Treasury does as they place DEBT ISSUES on the asset(receipts) side of the Balance Sheet ledger, which is what a US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT is. The US Treasury commingles debt and tax revenues as one, as recipts ... as assets.
Let me just say that if the US Treasury were forced to live just on NET tax revenues we would have to cut Social Security checks and Medicare benefits by 80%. In fact the entire US government would have to shrink 80% so we would have to quit policing the entire World by 80%! Close 80% of our foreign military bases and shrink our troop size by 80%.
So where is Roubini's stance on unending US DEBT and that is one huge liability that makes the AIG derivative counterparty liability look tiny. Last year(FY 2009) the US DEBT liability ended over $54TRIL USD. Right now the FY 2010 US DEBT liability is already over $3.3TRIL USD.
Further ... on THE DEBT CEILING ... It first started in 1940 with $45BIL. That was 70 years ago and now it is $12.1TRIL USD! Guess what? They need to raise the debt ceiling again and soon since US PUBLIC DEBT is at $11.9TRIL right now. What have we learned from 70 years of Congressional DEBT CEILINGS? Roubini?
So what is gold? In my view it is the only financial entity in the World without liabilities. Gold cannot file bankruptcy or default on its DEBT payments. Gold has no US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT since gold, unlike the US Dollar is not a "debt derivative". Speak to that Roubini ... as Dan Akroyd of the old Saturday Night Live POINT/COUNTERPOINT used to say ... "ROUBINI YOU IGNORANT SLUT!" I believe Akroyd went on to include such other delectable "points" as "rapacious swamp sow" and "... when you're on you back Jane, the meter is running!" Who is paying Roubini to be one dimensional? Certainly his paying subscribers, which pay quite a bit for his wisdom, should be entitled to a multi-dimensional view of gold and monetary liabilities and not just the same old crud about inflation/deflation that is easily obtained anywhere on the WWW for free!
The missing link: Since our dollar(money) is based on DEBT(faith and credit) then a DEBT crisis is a "monetary crisis".
A week ago I posted the MINSKY HYPOTHESIS which states that the continuing DEBT crisis we have will build until it collapses, until DEBT saturation is achieved. Roubini calls that a Depression but it is a monetary crisis. FDR defaulted on the US Dollar and so did Nixon. The Great Depression was a monetary crisis. Ask anyone who held gold back then what happened. The value of gold went up from $20 to $42 then over $100, due to FDR default, before WW2. FDR removed America from the gold standard. He defaulted. Nixon did the same thing except that Nixon removed the entire World from the gold standard permanently. Thats the power of a huge military and World Reserve Currency status as his US Tres Sec then, John Connolly pointed out to the French in no uncertain terms. During the FDR default he removed America from the gold standard but we went back on the gold standard after WW2. Is that a DUH MOMENT or what? Look at any chart of US money supply or US Debt and you will see that they both rise exponentially after 1971 and they have been rising ever since. With NIXON the US FED finally achieved their true mandate ... TO GET RID OF THE GOLD STANDARD forever. Now look around you and see who owns what in America and who is getting the multi-million dollar bonuses and the job security and growth. The US FED member banks have all the money while the US government is the only growth industry left in America. The US Treasury Daily Statements show that the Federal Employee line item is alive and well and so are the other line items that support US government expansion, like Defense. So the industries of DESTRUCTION are alive and well, whether they destroy Iraqi homes or destroy our kids financial future ... DESTRUCTION is a growth industry! We as Americans continue to vote for DESTRUCTION.
- ELIMINATE THE US FED
- ELIMINATE US INCOME TAXES
- ELIMINATE ROUBINIES
HA!! You had to ask didn't you Bull ...
Re: FDIC Sheila Bair video on FDIC homepage
"She also lies about just over 100 banks have failed."
The quote I heard on the radio included 100 banks in "2009". To say she lies on this is not accurate.
Acknowledge you clarified "Yes that is true if you only count bank failures this year but since 2007 there have been 178 bank failures.'
Re: Roubini : Big Crash Coming, But I Don't Believe In Gold
Roubini's personal investment strategy as of late June 2009 based on an interview:
"Asked whether he invests in stocks, he replied, "Not as much these days. I used to have a lot in equities — about 75% — but over the past three years, I’ve had about 95% in cash and 5% in equities. You’re not getting much from savings these days but earning 0% is better than losing 50%. . . . I don’t believe in picking individual stocks or assets. . . . Never invest your money as though you are gambling at the casino. Buying and selling individual stocks is a waste of time."
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/consumer_af...
I wonder what Roubini means when he says "95% in cash" now and how much did he lose with a 75% equity weighting over the past three years? Do tell, Nouriel. Do tell.
Roubini is a self-promoting Ivy-League-educated IMF-World Bank-U.S. Fed-Bank of Israel swag who acted as one of Billy Clinton's chief economic advisors and now advises Geithner. You could say he's one of the original framers of the current crisis. He knows his current and former employers' enemy and it is GOLD. He's attempting to steer the masses into U.S. bonds. So transparent.
Thanks Kaimu for the refresher.
Re: FDIC Sheila Bair video on FDIC homepage
There are 106 FDIC bank failures in 2009 and 178 since 2007.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklis...