Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Friday, Sept. 25, 2009

I just watched some G20 Analyst discussing what's on the table this weekend, and it left me feeling a bit hopeless. The anticipated outcome is a "framework, process, understanding ". Supposedly if a country falls out of line, other countries will step up to 'help' that country out. Uhuh...

Also, sounds like some countries want to slap Germany's wrist for building an economy on exports (gasp!), and should instead focus on 'internal growth' through such innovative ideas as keeping retail stores open for more shopping hours. Seriously?!

I can't remember any more of the drivel, I think a safety switch in my brain shut down my input receptors...

IMF says no recovery until 2015. Bernanke's cheering on the economy now. IMF appears even at this early stage to be differentiating itself from the Washington consensus. Obama's weak efforts certainly aren't aiding a recovery of US international economic and political clout following the previous regime. Funny that Germany (which means Europe) is being knocked in the G20 negotiations. Merkel's trying to save jobs at GM's Opel subsidiary at the same time that elections are due - can you blame her?

Does Continental Europe "get it" - that to compete with a Mercantilist economy like China they're going to have to do deals that ensure European jobs remain European? Yet it's a catch 22. Save jobs now (when they really need to be saved) is not going to aid these companies in the face of an onslaught of Indian and Chinese exported cars as the European worker/consumer quits this recession ever the poorer. The inflation that is going to eat our spending power will push the consumer into the arms of Tata and BYD in the next ten years unless (yeh you guessed it) protectionism rears its ugly head again. What a mess. HB&B really screwed us this time - again.

I can already see Asian economies as a block trading group clubbing European and American negotiators over the head in the not too distant future. I guess everyone gets their turn at being boss.

Hi loannetter. Both posts exemplify the dialectic:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialectic

Hopefully this dialectic will be resolved harmoniously, and to the benefit of us, the people and not, as you have illustrated, another elite - and pigs may fly. Someone will end up "boss" out of this affair.

I improved the session handling. Now you have to grant access to your Google Finance Portfolios only once per browser session. By using your Google Finance Portfolios you never have to copy & paste the symbol lists into the RSI application again. If you have ideas for symbol lists of general interest (e.g. Bill's retailers list, high beta techs, etc.), please let me know.

Currently only US stock exchanges are supported for your Google Finance Portfolios. I will integrate other countries in the next days.

Have fun and a wonderful weekend,
Olaf

http://www.tradersquest.de/caracommunity-rsi-tool-...

Golong, this is not a republican or democrat thing. This is a "financial interests control our government thing", and blatant manipulation, thievery, and treating the constitution like a disrespected two bit whore (not just a basic two bit whore) who is then thrown in the dirt and then insulted.

Obama was handed a pile of doo, and then proceeded by every means possible to make it as bad as it could be. He is well spoken and that is his fault, he is well spoken but doesn't have a handle on the great complexity of things. And after the people's have been ravaged they are looking for a leader.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/09/anything-goes.html

Hmmm...

No doubt that Obama is as slick as they come and for now the Dems are in the cat birds seat, and I agree the GOP is out to lunch with nothing to offer at this time. But as most on this site know, (as Woody Allen said) "They're all terrible".
I have zero hope that there will ever be any solution outside of a third party forthcoming from DC. Whats needed is real reform and indictments against HB&B and their enablers.

Good morning.

BC - Upgraded to Outperform @ RBC

PG - Jefferies & Co. Initiates Coverage with a Buy. PT = $70

RIMM - Downgraded to Sell @ Deutsche Securities

http://www.house.gov/htbin/leave_site?ln_url=http:...

What do you do when you are in a home you bought for $1M, which is now worth $600,000? There are many Americans who are now choosing to default vs pay for a depreciated asset. "Bring on my foreclosure/bankruptcy"

Add to this metric, the number of hidden home inventory from the existing/new home sales numbers. there are millions of homes /mortgage renters being coddled by the banks to avoid a foreclosure status. Yes, delinquent mortgage customers are living in a home in some cases for 12+months without having made any payment. Banks don't want the liability of adding onto their existing foreclosures.

Then add to this even further, the issue of ARM customers who are due to reset in 2010-2011. This number is going to be a larger number and issue than even sub prime. Chart clearly showing this dynamic: http://tinyurl.com/y94t7pl.

Excerpts from LA Times piece on Strategic Defaults:
http://tinyurl.com/m5dtph

* The number of strategic defaults is far beyond most industry estimates -- 588,000 nationwide during 2008, more than double the total in 2007. They represented 18% of all serious delinquencies that extended for more than 60 days in last year's fourth quarter.

* Strategic defaulters often go straight from perfect payment histories to no mortgage payments at all. This is in stark contrast with most financially distressed borrowers, who try to keep paying on their mortgage even after they've fallen behind on other accounts.

* Strategic defaults are heavily concentrated in negative-equity markets where home values zoomed during the boom and have cratered since 2006. In California last year, the number of strategic defaults was 68 times higher than it was in 2005. In Florida it was 46 times higher. In most other parts of the country, defaults were about nine times higher in 2008 than in 2005.

* Two-thirds of strategic defaulters have only one mortgage -- the one they're walking away from on their primary homes. Individuals who have mortgages on multiple houses also have a higher likelihood of strategic default, but researchers believe that many of these walkaways are from investment properties or second homes.

* Homeowners with large mortgage balances generally are more likely to pull the plug than those with lower balances. Similarly, people with credit ratings in the two highest categories measured by VantageScore -- a joint scoring venture created by Experian and the two other national credit bureaus, Equifax and TransUnion -- are far more likely to default strategically than people in lower score categories.

* People who default strategically and lose their houses appear to understand the consequences of what they're doing. Piyush Tantia, an Oliver Wyman partner and a principal researcher on the study, said strategic defaulters "are clearly sophisticated," based on the patterns of selective payments observable in their credit files. For example, they tend not to default on home equity lines of credit until after they bail out on their main mortgages, sometimes to draw down more cash on the equity line.

Not bullish news

Nice! bookmarked.

GRYM, it is our stupidity that allows this to continue and this has been going on since the beginning of time. We can debate politics until we are blue in the face but how many of you were screaming bloody murder as the market sailed to 14,000 plus and made many of us stinking rich only to see that stripped away for many many more. It is OUR greed, complacency, ignorance, laziness, etc... that created the system. Politicians are what they are and that will never change in a million lifetimes. I mean G W Bush had the IQ of a fish and he got elected twice. Sad commentary I think. Everyone likes to talk about changing the system but no one does anything about it right? Leave it to the next person, I'm going fishing this weekend right?

it is like 1999 all over again.

IPO not my cup of tea unless I was part owner prior to the bloodsucker underwriters getting involved. If you own a company about to go ipo and plan to cash in, do you plan to come out at the peak or trough of the market?

These IPO's are just another sign post for me that the playlist on the music is about to end.

Grym,
"Most of his talk is generalities"

That is unfortunately true.
Away from the subjects of health care and other domestic problems, I was not surprised to read his claim that the world's financial problem is rooted in the fact that Americans overspend and the people in developing countries do not spend enough. Of course that is true. And he knows the reason. Americans and Europeans have their economic safety nets. Thus they were able to spend and borrow freely and not save. In fact many of the same big spenders would continue to overspend if only the banks would continue to provide credit to them for loans that are not going to be repaid. If they lose their jobs or nest eggs they have a sense that they and their families can nonetheless survive because of the economic and social safety nets that exist in their countries.

Obama could take some credit for tightening credit and reducing such overspending in America, but he doesn't seem to want do do so.

However, there is no safety net in India, China and elsewhere in the developing world. Nor do they have job security. They are experiencing job losses as a result of reduced consumer demand in America and Europe. They need to hold on to their savings. They can not squander money on frivolous purchases like in America and Europe.

However, I agree that Obama shows good judgment not to venture into the topic of the domestic social policies of the developing countries. Perhaps he hopes that his mentioning the subject will produce positive results. There is no harm trying.

I think on the issue of the IMF/World bank it is better to size them up based on a little hypothetical situation I wrote up (skip it if it's too long - but Bill opened the conversation this morning).

World Banker & Co.: "Comeon Mr.DeNa (developing nation), take the loan, your country needs a new airport, and soccer stadium, and superhiway. It will help you (wink wink), and your country too."

Mr.Dena: "Hmm...i see it shall be profitable. Let us do it."

years later...

World Banker: "Mr.Dena, our superhiway has helped your export business! However, your payments are falling behind. You're in debt. We can help. Meet my friend IMF Goon."

IMF Goon: (takes Mr.Dena by a strong grip of the forearm) "Alright listen. Commodity exports account for 90% of your export earnings, but still you ain't paying your debts. This ain't no time to be talking about building processing plants in-house. I best suggest you forget the wealth multiplier effect fast, ok heffe?"

Mr. Dena: (surprised) "But that is how we can get out of this mess." (arm twisted tighter) "OK, ok I forget. What do you want me to do?"

IMF Goon: (smiling seriously) "We call it structural adjustment. It is a proven remedy. In Iraq, they agreed to lay off 500K govt workers and we also made it so only "protected" crops, Roundup-ready could be planted - no more saved seeds. We think this will do the job here..."

Mr. Dena: "We can't layoff 20% of our workforce!"

IMF Goon: "We don't really impose anything, we are negotiating here ain't we?? I"ve talked to World Banker and he'll forgive 25% of your debt. Our IMF relief loan will keep you paying down the interest on what you owe."

Mr. Dena: "This is slavery, we'll still be spending 50% of our earnings on interest! Our health system will never improve!"

World Banker: "Dena, we're trying to help. This is as close to a bailout as you'll ever get! We don't want to talk about ending food subsidies just yet do we???..that would make food prices skyrocket, and there would be riots. Water privitization is coming down the road, sign now I say."

Mr. Dena: "I see no choice, where do I sign this SAP?"
(structural assistant program)

(phone call to World Banker)

World Banker: "Hello ? SDRs.. ya...American dollar..yup...it's time is over...I think we can get China on-board...ya...no no...I don't flippin care!! NO...there's always a job for us somewhere...the Feds a time-bomb now, wait till we SAP America... a mess really you should come over... ground floor opportunity....Gold standard HAHA THOSE ACADEMICS... We're moneychangers dude we print money from paper...ya..ya...of course fractional reserve lending who's gonna fund those wars and meet our objectives? Inflation baby, inflation. Listen I gotta go...me and a friend from JP will be in China...big arms conduit deals..."

We need to turn up the contrast on this stuff. There is enough good in anything to sell it, but is it in essence exist to do good? I'd love to hear real logical arguments in favor of any new system that is proposed.

A relevant link on the IMF.

http://tinyurl.com/ye3tvjv

Pretty spot on. And he said all this in front of the Masters minions.

is one cool dude. He's also, I understand, a resident of the next town over.

This market is a giant furry squirrel trying to get at your nuts.

And I think we're in a correction of some magnitude or other (DUH!) and I'm sitting it out today.

Also I think the time for a message-sending unprovoked nuclear first-strike against Iran, thereby turning it into a vacant bowl of glass in the desert is beginning to look like an appealing option.

Oh wait...There it is:)

Bill-
If you have time I would also like your current take on RIMM. Thanks

Bought some JWN Oct30 puts @ $1.30. I don't expect a smashing Christmas season for high end retailers and valuation looks very rich after the run from crash low of $5ish to above $30. Large amount of debt as well.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this market slowly bleed lower over the next couple of weeks. Too many people are on the buy the 3 to 5% dip train. Well it has already dipped 3% from the highs...

...

Mr Cara
With the tension ever increasing with Iran's development of its nuclear capabilities [peaceful or not] do you think oil will trade in the $65-75 range or higher even if the $USD begins to rallies up?

GOOG - price target surges at Barclays to $575 from $495 as the company should produce better than expected results over the next few quarters. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates increased to $22.11 and $25.86, respectively. Overweight rating.

RIMM - price target cut at Barclays to $90 from $100. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates set at $4.15 and $4.99, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.

RIMM - numbers cut at UBS to $84. Estimates also lowered, to reflect lower sales momentum. Neutral rating.

---------------

Have a great weekend everyone.

Up big today. I remember there was some put buying going on a couple of weeks back, and looks like that might be a good play again soon. Todays action looks like a break out of a pennant (I think), and could visit a trend line extending from early January high.

Just a short thought for the near future...

no position yet

EDIT: there was put buying being discussed here is what i meant :)

Billy - I have found that I'm far more successful buying ITM options (usually pretty deep ITM options) than OTM options. Yeah, the returns are going to be less if your timing is good, but it's far less risky. Far, far less risky. I can't stress that enough.

And premiums go away if you buy deep enough ITM options, even if they're several months out. Remember that your thesis could be correct but if your timing is wrong, you're dead with naked options...if they are ITM then you're just a little less dead.

Thanks in advance... I cannot find any info. on the sites I check...

NYUGrad,

People are nothing but fodder for the capitalist machine, man. People are an expendable, inexhaustible resource to be used when desirable and dispensed with when not.

The process described in the article, that of workers washing out of the job scene is a DESIRABLE process, man. It speaks to the ever changing nature of the capitalist workplace as well as to the human-work-unit best adapted TO that environ.

I for one say what's good for business IS good for America. Even if it kills people:)

Thank you Bill. You are spot on as usual. As a U.S. citizen, I have been looking for offshore private banking not as a tax dodge but to get ahead of exchange controls which will come in a few years. Aside from Canada, the Bahamas might be a good place to bank. Plus, there may be a tax deductable angle in going to the Bahamas to visit my money!
Thanks again.

Bill, if you want a server that is never down and managed by an increasingly competent business, as their hardware changes the game, look into

http://www.inlinecorp.com/

Yen up 2% on the day.

ALOHA !!

Bill posted - "It's a joke that many people actually believe this stuff."

Well this is NO JOKE ...

Prior to the US FED being created in 1913 you could buy a home in America for $1,800USD in 1908. Now the average home price is around $235,000USD. That is a 13,000% increase in price. JOB WELL DONE! Prices have not risen but due to the failure of the US FED and the US government the value of our money(purchasing power)has plummeted since 1908.

Now for those of you who have to point out that inflation has also lifted wages in order to compensate ... forget that lame argument! No doubt wages have gone up but back in 1908 an "unskilled US worker" earning $1,000USD then would need to make more than $104,300USD to be equal in 2008. Right now according to the BLS data the average worker in America is only making $18.65USD per hour which is around $38,000USD per year. So housing is not affordable in America based on historical data. The only wages in America keeping up with the 100 year "embedded inflation" are bank CEOs with bonuses and Oprah and Kobi and Brad Pitt and Bono!

Also look at this ...
LINK: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090925.htm?T

Remember that inflation is really another form of "taxation" that neither the US government recognizes nor the IRS, since I never get an INFLATION CREDIT on my 1040. Where is that deduction?

While the BLS computes CPI based on 2009 data points look what CPI would look like if we used 1908 data points. Look at those "war years" how much the CPI jumps for WW1 and WW2 and then the Vietnam War and then the US Dollar default in 1971 and since then it has been exponential. CPI increases that took ten years in 1908 take one year or less after 1971.

Please note how CPI after WW1 and WW2 reverses itself and slows dramatically since after those wars the US Treasury went back onto the gold standard. But after the Vietnam War there was no gold standard to go back to since Nixon ended it ...

Notice also the last three years of the Clinton regime(1999 - 2001)where we saw budget surpluses but no slow down in spending and debt did not affect CPI at all. CPI kept going up right through both Clinton terms.

Year U.S. Consumer Price Index *
1908 8.92
1909 8.82
1910 9.21
1911 9.21
1912 9.40
1913 9.60
1914 9.69
1915 9.74
1916 10.64
1917 12.82
1918 15.06
1919 17.30
1920 20.04
1921 17.90
1922 16.77
1923 17.07
1924 17.10
1925 17.53
1926 17.70
1927 17.37
1928 17.13
1929 17.13
1930 16.70
1931 15.23
1932 13.66
1933 12.96
1934 13.39
1935 13.73
1936 13.86
1937 14.36
1938 14.09
1939 13.89
1940 14.03
1941 14.73
1942 16.30
1943 17.30
1944 17.60
1945 18.00
1946 19.54
1947 22.34
1948 24.08
1949 23.85
1950 24.08
1951 25.98
1952 26.55
1953 26.75
1954 26.88
1955 26.78
1956 27.18
1957 28.15
1958 28.92
1959 29.16
1960 29.62
1961 29.92
1962 30.26
1963 30.62
1964 31.03
1965 31.56
1966 32.46
1967 33.40
1968 34.80
1969 36.67
1970 38.84
1971 40.51
1972 41.85
1973 44.45
1974 49.33
1975 53.84
1976 56.94
1977 60.61
1978 65.22
1979 72.57
1980 82.38
1981 90.93
1982 96.50
1983 99.60
1984 103.90
1985 107.60
1986 109.60
1987 113.60
1988 118.30
1989 124.00
1990 130.70
1991 136.20
1992 140.30
1993 144.50
1994 148.20
1995 152.40
1996 156.90
1997 160.50
1998 163.00
1999 166.60
2000 172.20
2001 177.10
2002 179.90
2003 184.00
2004 188.90
2005 195.30
2006 201.60
2007 207.34
2008 215.30

From the MEASURING WEALTH website ...
LINK: http://www.measuringworth.com/index.html

The quote from Adam Smith at the top of the MEASURING WEALTH HOME page shows how out of touch the World is with "value" now that the standard of value(money) has no worth backing it, no commodity, no nothing other than "faith and credit"(aka: DEBT). How can you value anything when the standards of value are "free floating" on shifting sands from one day to the next? So how can you plan 10 or 20 years from now with no standard of value that is fixed? This is why "trading" has gained so much popularity. Trading is leverage. But like the great Kodiak grizzly bears waiting along side the Alaskan streams for spawning Salmon, so to the big US Banks like Goldman Sachs are waiting for the unsuspecting traders seeking to mate with profits! HA!! Hows that for a "trading" analogy! Hey, its Friday!

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

Looks like the market rebound off today's lows stalled with indexes still in the red, and similarly looks like SRS made a higher low recently. So I just bought at $9.94 slightly more SRS than I sold yesterday AH at $10.19.

I remember Bill Hester (who works with John Hussman) wrote a paper showing a correlation between market surprises about the economic data and the direction of S&P. The data seemed to be better than expectations since March and so S&P kept growing. This week, it seems that the expectations have increased so much that the data is beginning to have trouble exceeding the expectations. That by itself can cause a serious market correction that has gotten used to data easily beating the expectations.

Besides, it looks like the "last dancer," gold, is squarely off the dance floor. Maybe a serious correction has already started...

David- Keep in mind the incentive fund managers have to ramp numbers up into next Wednesday's close. You can't fight basic human psychology. If there's something I can do almost every month/quarter that guarantees a fat check two weeks later, I'm going to keep doing it.

Wow. As if anyone here wasn't surprised to see a ramp up to positive...

Looks like I was a bit too early suggesting half an hour ago that the rebound off today's lows is over and that SRS has put in a double bottom. NOW, on the other hand, the charts seem to support this view much better. The charts can always change, however. :)

Does anyone have an opinion on TLT vs TIP?

Could you give us a precis ?

gracias

Great idea Kaimu. the inflation tax credit

Politicians and government workers get cost of living increases so taxpayers are entitled to
an annual inflation tax credit with the first one retroactive to 2000 !!! Direct stimulus to the taxpayer pocket instead
of the banksters cigar box. And no phony government statistics... inflation to be calculated by a independent third party. It's an idea which a third party could promote as a way to curtail big government.

I Got into a bit of MAG a few days ago with its technical tap down on the 50 DMA, and then the discovery news, how valuable is Molybdenum? I apologize in advance for asking for help, but this is not my area and I was surprised by the announcement that they had found some. I should know, but I do not. I am thinking that maybe MAG could be a core stock here instead of a swing trade if Moly is a good play. I really like the action yesterday and today and may pick up some more at an opportune time if I can convince myself of the value, but will be working on doing my homework first.

Maybe Jock can help me again, I will be grateful for a long time with his help with GORO.OB

Thanks, barry

The main story is Overstock and the research Patrick Byrne did to discover the naked shorting and how it affected the stock price. Other companies affected were also mentioned briefly. Typical of these type of news stories is comments from a whole range of experts both for and against in the debate. There were interesting comments by SEC chairman Cox. Too me it showed how illegal short selling is happening to quite a few stocks but the SEC (and maybe DTCC) are not properly enforcing the law. It will take me alot longer to provide a full summary than for you to watch. If you are familiar with the Overstock story and naked shorting I think it will be of interest.

http://tinyurl.com/yctz4t3

We were mentioning IPOs earlier and yest?

Ticker GAME, ipo'd today. Underwritten by GS. I am sure Shanda made out well.

Article: http://tinyurl.com/ybdzns2
Google Chart: http://tinyurl.com/ydpyf63

OK....here is my chance to learn something. I just looked at charts from 13:46 EST to try and understand why this is the precise point for a natural bounce...i am not too good at this and can not figure out why this is the point for bounce.

Vadym i did buy your books early on and read them once way back in time. I will admit that much of what was in the books at the time was above my scope of understanding.

I think tonight i will pull them off shelf and look threw again.

You might know that i am a personnel consultant.... during 70's and 80's, I worked with many engineers and PhD scientists who escaped one way or another from behind iron curtain and helped them establish careers with some of my client companies. They all had interesting stories about how they got to US and other stories. Many got here with nothing but clothes on backs...but had technical skills, work ethics and personnel characteristics that made them valuble assets for GE, IBM and other of my client employers. I even had Polish Mechanical Engineer who spoke limited English that walked 15 miles in Snow storm (all roads closed/everything closed...i am Upstate NY) for a machinists position (way below his education level). President of company called me and said "how could i not hire a guy who did this for an interview".

The refuge help groups sent me many great candidates and it was satisfying to see these guys get jobs and then watch how their careers progressed as they learned English and proved themselves....many very rapidly. The employers paid me too for finding the talent.

Your posts of business in Soviet Union were very interesting.

mlg

At least it was for me... :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXmNpdYpfnk&feature...

[Rep. Alan Grayson: "Has the Federal Reserve Ever Tried to Manipulate the Stock Market?"]

Sorry about my last post...I do understand where you are coming from.
I must say, the more involved I get into your website, the more impressed I am with your tireless energy you put into your websites and community.
thank you Bill
Don

the interview is nice since they speak their minds vs just talking about the film.

http://tinyurl.com/ycr7x7a

I will be seeing this film and asking all my friends and family to see it as well.

I ask you see it with 5 of your friends just as weekend entertainment. we need to wake up the country to follow our politicians, hb&b, and our money, as much as we follow football, golf, mtv, gossip mags.

We find out about Ratigan as well in the interview...

"You're talking to someone who left his job at CNBC in order to pursue politicians because of his frustration and anger at the revelation of a system that was clearly designed basically to perpetuate generational theft and then cover it up."

Article: http://tinyurl.com/y96gpsb

What is Google Voice?: http://tinyurl.com/lfva4h

*Basically if this app was approved in original form in the app store, I would only need the data plan for my iphone, cheapest voice package, and use Google voice for all my voice communication needs worldwide!

I don't get it, the Fed claims they will be subject to political influence if audited by the Government Accountability Office. But isn't that office a non-partisan organization to keep tabs on the parties themselves? I.e. to prevent politics influencing policy decisions?

Thanks, Vad... btw, I meant $ 257 - $ 259... was a good move ... will probably add ' trade the news ' to my servers, as they seem to be 5 min. faster than others... Have a good weekend.

I forwarded this Grayson video to a lawyer friend and his comment was: "As a matter of principle, there should be accountability for the Federal Reserve through checks and balances, including being audited by the GAO. You don't want it to be subject to the political whim of Congress. The Constitution should be amended to deal with the Federal Reserve. It now seems to operate in a Constitutional no-man's land."

FWIW

Here is something I picked up elsewhere. I think there is a lot of truth to what this person states. It reads:

Over the years, I tried to reduce my dependence on the System:

Have no debt whatsoever
no real bulky assets that can be taken away from me
own no real estate and have no payments for decades, can easily move.

basically I am in a position to pack my bags and leave, any time.

However, I am still deeply dependent on the System - I work for a big corp and their paycheck is my umbilical cord to the System - cut it, and I go down like Titanic. I have no alternatives.

I've noticed that no matter how much we 'hate' the System, no matter how much we rant and post stories of infinite abuse that dominates this forum, in actuality, we *need* and ultimately like the System. That's why no one will seriously challenge status quo aside from token lip service. Elections and voting and demonstrations are completely meaningless and will not change anything at all, ever. So are stupid 'tea parties' where you have to ask for permission to dump 'tea bags' in the water, letter-writing, etc. etc. It's just total BS. People at the top of the organizations know this BTW.

Next year, Real ID, the biometric chip national id card becomes reality - who will meaningfully protest? No one. Sure, there will be some token BS. letter writing campaign or something. Because we need the system, without it we perish. Ultimately what it comes down to, if you have to chose between not getting the biometric chip and national ID and having a job just to make ends meet, 99 point 999 will choose the latter. What it comes down to, we comply, comply and comply some more because you stand to lose more otherwise.

Who can go in the middle of nowhere, Montana, or Texas or something very remote and sustain oneself without Walmart and fast food and junk from Asia and just declare personal independence from the System and honestly say they don't *need* the system and can survive just fine without it.

I cannot. I am working towards that end but running into obstacles, namely, that a life on the periphery of the System is a life of terrible poverty. There is no work in 'middle of nowhere', USA. It's the finances that don't add up, the business plan. You isolate yourself so much that you become ineffective. Many people have tried it and most have returned back to the System they abandoned. Unless you are independently wealthy, which is rare, since the System is designed to take your wealth away from you.

Now keep something else in mind. The System only runs because of our compliance to it, as simple as that. And it's the only leverage left. Yet if you remove yourself from the System in an attempt to starve it, say by not paying taxes, growing your own food so you reduce sales taxes -- you will starve first before the System starves. You need the System more than the System needs you, by far. In fact, the System doesn't need you at all. It can and does sacrifice millions of us to perpetuate itself. Just look at the millions who lost their jobs in this Great Recession. Their lives are completely ruined, right here and right now. TSHTF - for them. The System kicked them out on the street, in the darkness and cold. They have no future and no 'jobs' waiting for them, because the jobs are not coming back, there will be no recovery. But the System keeps ticking on just fine without you. Whether you comply or not, it seems to keep going. It's positioned itself so that your life depends on its successful existence. Attempt to reform the System and it turns out you have to destroy yourself first. Because *we* are the System. Or else go live in a cave somewhere or the woods in which case you are so far on the periphery of things and likely without money or any opportunities or capabilities to do anything with your life that you might as well be dead. But you would be perfectly free. Turns out we don't want that kind of freedom. We want freedom but after the cable bill is paid and there is pizza on the dinner table and a nice car in the garage. I don't even blame the sheeple anymore. Maybe they know something we don't. But I still don't want to be married the System.

By etc.

OT: Otis Redding, Sitting...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nA18g_PwG0

OT: Pink Floyd, Comfortably Numb

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkJNyQfAprY

Continues (STARTING WITH $10,000 INVESTED IN EACH STOCK ON 9/16/2009)

After 8 Trading Days 9/25/09 (close)

AAPL - $10,504 STOCK DOWN -.79% ($83.00) NEW VALUE $10,421

SLW - $9,615 STOCK DOWN -3.05% ($293.00) NEW VALUE $9,322

AAPL STILL ON TOP UP 4.21% versus SLW DOWN 6.78%

Note: I am still long just a little SLW for spite I think but I also have sizeable postions in SDS and QID from a few days ago so I am good both ways. Other than these positions I am now flat yet still anxious and confused. I would love to see this baby crash hard like everyone else so we can all reload at bargain basement prices and get rich on the rebound. I bet the people that unfortunately missed the market march upward from March are just biting at the bit for this to happen. Everyone is thinking the same thing so is probably the reason why it won't happen. Be careful what you wish for as they say.

I think you are right on with the statement that "I bet the people that unfortunately missed the market march upward from March are just biting at the bit for this to happen. Everyone is thinking the same thing so is probably the reason why it won't happen.

I also think a lot of portfolio managers who missed the bottom and are looking at losing their jobs for under performance are a big part of why the market has refused to go down. On any small dip they throw OPM at it in the hope of saving their behind, ah job.

What a strategic default really is is a max pain decision. If you can keep running your business or lifestyle on your equity line (nice low prime rate) then it's an easy choice to keep it in good standing. That's why loan modification is working for people who understand their choices. The first mortgage lender sees their interest rate is untenable and buckles rather than spend the max pain on foreclosing. Lots of wily coyotes are using 3% equity lines to pay their 1st mortgage or invest in gold or stocks. I see very few Borrowers who choose foreclosure due to the ten year toxic effect on their credit rating. They would much rather attempt a short sale or short refi and keep their credit intact. Unless they really can't afford a lower payment most homeowners seem determined to hang onto their homes and their pride. Of course banks have cut and closed a lot of HELOCs in fear of having them drawn prior to walking.

The rising wedge continues to fill in,macd looks very bearish to me.

Bev,

Thanks for the link. Three cheers for Rep. Grayson. We need more like him. We used to have news people with this kind of tenacity before it was so easy to simply cut and paste from the internet.

Kaimu, thank you. Love it. You may be Mark Twain & don't even know it.

"But like the great Kodiak grizzly bears waiting along side the Alaskan streams for spawning Salmon, so to the big US Banks like Goldman Sachs are waiting for the unsuspecting traders seeking to mate with profits!"
-Kaimu, Bill Cara Blog 9/25/09

Friday, Cook was on for a full hour, and John Kaiser for 15 mins. (eve of the Cambridge Gold Show) BOTH were well worth hearing:

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/september-...

Cook is GREAT on geology, deposits and managements. (only likes 3 silver companies, Mag, FVI, and AQI (the latter for high leverage to silver price). (MAG is up just 50% from '08 low). Most deposits are low grade, have too many byproducts. His rule of thumb, deposit must average >2x cutoff grade to be assured economic.

His weak point, IMO, is politics. Best jurisdiction is Quebec. He would not buy projects in Russia, VZ, Ecuador, or California - his home state. He used interchangeably the terms "russian" and "russian mafia", leaving the mild-mannered BNN anchor rather non-plussed. (Distinguished Italians like Andrea Bocelli might have felt the same!) Cook HAS visited Eritrea and does bless NSU.

Seriously, Kinross is doing fine, thank you, in Russia and Ecuador. K and EGO CEO's pointed out at Denver that it's good strategy to get comfortable in under-explored countries where gold production is going UP instead of DOWN.

Re Eastmain's news, Cook can't in his mind "tie together" great individual drill results into a good deposit. (Kaiser had praised ER as having dug into Quebec - world's best mining jurisdiction - and produced great results).

Cook is VERY high on AUX, and believes Long Canyon has a serious shot to be a very major deposit. Cook's top pix:

- Sprott Resources (largely for their ag project with First Nations; sells for less than cash!),
- Mirasol, a Latin prospect generator with a JV with CDE in Argentina, and
- EVG, which has a deposit in Wyoming that could end up 20M oz.

Kaiser I frankly found intelligent, but with less useful pix. His 3 top pix all had ridiculously extended charts, way above reasonable buy points - it's as if he had never seen a chart! Peregrine Diamonds, Quest Uranium, Nevada Exploration. The latter was, IMO, the most interesting, as they measure gold in ground water, under gravel - an novel approach.

Kaiser pointed out that Moly is coming back, and futures will soon start trading, drawing hedge fund managers. He praised Noront for drilling down deep below Eagle 1 deposit.

BBR, Brett Resources, was recommended as highly leveraged to a rising gold price. Good explanation.

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call-tonight/september-...

Both are serious analysts of juniors and are worth hearing in their own words.

BTW, people, quality juniors have by my reckoning come back more since last Fall than seniors or the metal. - Of course, the juniors fell harder, and are difficult to sell without major slippage.

FD: I own XAU, ER, FVI

Here's another sad story of the decline of America and destruction of the working class and the communities
in which they live.

DETROIT, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co (F.N) announced on Thursday plans to build a new $490-million flexible assembly plant in China, its third in the country, increasing annual production capacity by one-third to meet growing demand.

The plant, in the southwestern Chinese city of Chongqing for Ford's China joint venture Changan Ford Mazda Automobile, is expected to be completed in 2012.

Ford, which plans to introduce four new vehicles to the Chinese market over the next three years, said it expected to begin production of the next generation Ford Focus at the plant in 2012.

The plant will be capable of producing a wide range of vehicles and the joint venture's annual production capacity will rise by 150,000 vehicles to about 600,000 when it is completed, Ford said.

"Today's announcement reinforces our commitment to the further expansion of our China operations to meet the continued rise in demand from Chinese consumers for world-class Ford products and services," Ford Chief Executive Alan Mulally said in a statement.

Ford brand sales by Changan Ford Mazda in China rose 111 percent to 21,127 vehicles in August from a year earlier. Through August, Ford brand sales were up 30 percent to 144,601 vehicles in 2009 from a year earlier.

Ford, the No. 2 U.S. automaker in terms of sales behind General Motors Co [GM.UL], produces the Focus, Mondeo and other sedan models in China in a tie-up with Chongqing Changan Automobile Co (000625.SZ) and Japan's Mazda Motor Corp (7261.T).

Ford plans to debut its next generation of the Focus at the North American International Auto Show in January. The new Focus is being built on a global platform to reduce costs.

Under its global strategy, Ford expects the platform used by the new Focus to underpin up to 10 models eventually. Ford expects global sales of vehicles built on that platform to exceed 2 million per year by 2012.

Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford also holds 30 percent of Jiangling Motors Corp (000550.SZ), which makes light trucks and vans, including Ford's Transit model

Mokat and Grym -

Ford HAS to invest in China, in future the world's largest car market. Without growth there they can't compete. And no way they can compete if they merely export cars from USA.

At least, Ford didn't beg for $$$$ from US taxpayers!

From his musing: the trouble with geologists, this daunting assessment;

"In resource exploration, we are faced with very impressive odds against success. Note I said that in an optimistic way. A pessimist might say “overwhelming odds of failure”. One of every ten thousand prospects, one of every thousand drill targets, one of every one hundred resources, and one of every ten deposits with a positive feasibility study will make a profitable mine.
By a profitable mine, I mean one that pays back capital in less than five years, returns dividends or earnings per share to its investors consistently from year to year, and is reclaimed at a fraction of the profits delivered during its productive life. Mines that bankrupt companies and are acquired by other companies, have capital costs written down, or end up with massive environmental liabilities borne by shareholders do not count as profitable mines in my book. I can name a score or more mines that have failed in the past year.
Rick Rule, one of the most successful entrepreneurs in the junior resource sector says something like this: Five of every ten mines fail; four simply trade dollars; and one makes money.
That means that one of every ten mines put in production is an ore body, i.e., it is mined at a profit."

The entire piece, on his website, is well worth a read (dated 9.21.09):

http://www.mercenarygeologist.com/

A Thai friend of mine once told me, Thailand has something for every budget. If you want to shop at D&G and overpay for clothing, you can do that. If you want to eat food from street vendors for $1 per dish (something I enjoy), you can do that as well.

Myself, I plan to return to Bangkok in about a month. Like golong, I've found my way of unplugging from the system. And since my wants are simple, and I have no debt, I really am free. The less you want and the less "stuff" you own, the more free you are. Seriously, you KILL the system when you avoid debt. If we all did that, the bankers would have absolutely no power at all.

Like anywhere, Thailand has nice people, mean people, greedy people, and friendly people. Go to the bars in Bangkok, you will meet girls (or boys) who want your money - some want a small amount up front, while some are willing to wait for the big score. It is wise to be careful; and perhaps, don't take Bangkok night life too seriously. People from the country, or met in other places or venues, tend to be more genuine, but that generally takes longer than 1 week in country to experience. I suppose that is true everywhere.

I am definitely looking forward to going back. This time, I'm going to learn Thai for real.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/09/who-runs-what.html

Kaimu. This is really getting old for me I am sorry to say. How about some solutions rather than the usual polemic, commentary and complaining. I don't see not even one solution from you on how we can change this system just that the systems sucks. Yea we got that part.

I'm just ranting. For some reason his kind of posts get under my skin. I've met people like him before and frankly I let them get to me more than they should. The System is what it is and it won't change unless Aliens invade us. From such an intelligent guy you would think some suggestions would come into play. Oh well. My last word on this then. Thanks Dave for leveling my head again.

Hey, Kaimu's posts are the best and I have learned a lot from them...plus he is doing something, he moved to Hawaii (and more). His mere lifestyle is the suggestion. He is an accomplished guy, it’s the loser complainers who have never done anything that get under my skin…they blame their lack of accomplishment on the system. Like the posters who can’t get a job because all the jobs got out sourced…. or the bitter posters who blame an unchanged business model from 20 years ago for their current lack of success.

Golong, your posts are great too…. especially the past post about amateurs on the board who try to sound like big money experts.

I have the feeling we could all learn a lot about trading and good living in general from you.

Was it you who said you try to make 500$ a day trading (or was it a 1000)? I kind of wondered why that is all you try for (not criticizing or trying to be jerk)…. and I am interested in how you do it. What strategy do you use?

Gademsky. About the $500 a day thing. Perhaps it was a little silly on my part considering I am not even a equity day trader anymore but it comes from literally being a commodities day trader with the habit of setting financial goals daily as all commodity day traders I know tend to do. I was just trying to put some perspective on it. Does $10,000 a month sound better. or $120k a year. I don't mean literally $500 a day but if I have $300,000 on the line and with the volatility of the markets it doesn't take a whole lot to generate much to get to $500 a day. Sorry you percentage people but I like real numbers as I spend real numbers and not percentages and it is easy to do the conversion anyway. My equity swings thousands daily (many percents a day LOL). Since March I have generated great numbers despite carrying some long term position in miners and other stuff that I had on since the the winter of last year at much higher prices thinking Nah this can't go down anymore and then fortunately I added to these positions in early March which brought my avarage pricing down considerably. So I got the lions share of the benefit lately with the move up in so many stocks and sold them all except as I mentioned just a tiny bit of SLW. And I do own a bunch of SDS and QID and may exit those soon as well.

Plus the detriment of living over here is I tend to nod out sometimes soon after the markets open and I don't like using tight stops as they always get elected like okay they know I put it on and trade it down just to elect it. So now I use wider stops typically just below key support or above key resistance levels for occasional shorts so unless there is some key reversal I tend to hold positions a long, long time and therefore profit greatly in the majority of cases from those positions. I have weird trading ways that seem to work but it's definetely one of those "Don't try this at home" type of things. When I make money it is big and my losses may be a little larger than they chould be but I have supported myself in a healthy lifestyle for many, many years all from trading (and a couple things totally unrelated to trading)

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/09/sunday-morning-...

Overview
DeMark Sequential (tm) screen from Amibroker
Momentum pullback screen (have some, had some)

The 'soup question': was last week a momentum pullback or something more; has the trend paused or ended?

Brent Cook Market Call (3 parts)

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip217421

Good to listen to the outlook and some of the views on companies. Good selection of junior mining companies. Good focus on gold, but they will always include base metals projects with gold by product as a gold miner. NEVER rely on something called: "gold equivalent ounces." Either you have the gold, or you don't. There is no way of hedging against losses if the gold grades are far below expectations, and you can't sell copper as being gold if the price of gold advances very strongly against base metals prices.

Gold has advanced against the decline in base metals over the last year, and its monetary value based in year 2000 constant dollars has stayed far below is real value, as measured against those commodities. Gold has a very long way to adjust to its real value in monetary terms.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14515.htm

Thus, the copper price has to be watched closely. VERY closely. (imo, we are going to see a decline to ~80¢/lb.)

golong, thanks for your explanation of how you trade, its quite helpful to put your comments in perspective.

Back when you were trading commodities, how long did you keep your trades on? And when you say you have 300k on the line, did that mean that was your leveraged position size (i.e. say 3 GC contracts)? I'm curious mainly because I've been doing some futures trading myself for the past few years, but I don't have your experience. I've made money at it, but not your kind of money. I have experimented with position size, and - frankly, 1 contract positions allow me keep my stress level from going too high, and relatively short term trades (1-2 weeks) seem to fit me best right now,

Does $500 motivate you to drop your trade once you've reached that level "I made my money for today, I'm outta here" - or does it suggest where you put your stops on a successful trade (i.e. $500 over your buy-in point) or is it just something you use at a metric to measure yourself and say "this is worth my while, I am a success."

BTW, generating a $500 return per day on a 300k portfolio is a 33% annualized return...quite nice.

Don't wanna put my $.02 when you guys are having so much fun but that's globalisation for you. Not happy with what your government or elite clique are doing for you - go somewhere else. More than one trader here has told their respective oligarchies to get lost. After all, the US was made by such people.

Devouring Lefevre's "Reminiscence of a Stock Operator". If sentiment was as clear to the author and his narrative creation at that epoch, than it clears up confusion as to why when crappy news comes out, the market goes up. You remember when Davefairtex was/is always bagging out the market for moving higher on bad news :). Well if Lefevre is to be understood literally it is some sort of mass psychological bent that the market has - that it can ignore the bad news until it is clear that the market can absorb no further selling. THEN the market listens to bad news. May sound obvious to some but permits a piece of the puzzle to go into place in my head.

Another learning from Lefevre is the nature of going long - like really long. What has changed since March? Nada. Until now our own superstar trader Bill "Livermore" Cara has not said the rally is over, so I ask myself for the millionth time why I sold SLW after making a couple of bob out of it in Springtime. The fact that we have our own trading teacher here to help us understand when change will come at each turn gives me reason to go long or short as the next leg sees fit and stay in that position for an extended period of time. Again, sounds asinine to suggest the obvious, but a valuable lesson I can hopefully implement and seriously profit from within my first year of trading. As 2nd Ave said some weeks ago, whoever bought FAS (I think it was) at the bottom was sitting on a 7 bagger.

Are US taxpayers paying for Ford's new China plant?

"a $25 billion program established by Congress in 2007 to help auto makers invest in the technology to meet a new congressional mandate to improve fuel efficiency. In June, the DOE awarded the first $8 billion from the program to Ford Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Tesla, which are all developing electric cars." WSJ

US taxpayer money to support a new auto factory in Finland and an existing one in Britain.

"WASHINGTON -- A tiny car company backed by former Vice President Al Gore has just gotten a $529 million U.S. government loan to help build a hybrid sports car in Finland that will sell for about $89,000.

The award this week to California startup Fisker Automotive Inc. follows a $465 million government loan to Tesla Motors Inc., purveyors of a $109,000 British-built electric Roadster. Tesla is a California startup focusing on all-electric vehicles, with a number of celebrity endorsements that is backed by investors that have contributed to Democratic campaigns.

Fisker's Karma hybrid sports car, above, will initially cost about $89,000.
The awards to Fisker and Tesla have prompted concern from companies that have had their bids for loans rejected, and criticism from groups that question why vehicles aimed at the wealthiest customers are getting loans subsidized by taxpayers.

Fisker's top investors include Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, a veteran Silicon Valley venture-capital firm of which Gore is a partner. Employees of KPCB have donated more than $2.2 million to political campaigns, mostly for Democrats, including President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign contributions.

Asked whether Mr. Gore had any influence on Fisker's application, the DOE's Rogers said, "None at all."

"This is a very attractive, very across-party-lines kind of vehicle," Mr. Rogers said. "All of the detailed due diligence [was] done by independent review teams."

Other Fisker investors include Eco-Drive (Capital) Partners LLC, an investment consortium, and Qatar Investment Authority, a state-run investor based in Qatar." WSJ

There seems to be an urgent need to remind those in Government who they work for and who they represent.
Currently they are bought and paid for by the global corporate elite which have no interest in social equity or loyalty to country in which they reside. Its just all about the money.

Some within the Administration want to significantly weaken the dollar and have the fantasy that we can become
a global export king again. What the h*ll do we have left to export besides food and weapons. Cat and Navistar are headed to China with new production facilities, Deere to Russia, Whirlpool to Mexico, Ford to China....the list goes on. Not only are all our factories, our service centers, engineering and pharma facilities, ,etc, sent offshore, they seek to further impoverish Americans by weakening the currency and thereby reducing the standard of living for many. Soon, many might not even afford shopping at Walmart, the Chinese outlet mall.

but he is not sure if it will go to 1250 first then to 800 or to 800 first and to 1250 later. Hard to trade his advice.

I'm not sure myself, but if 2003 was a guide, 1250 would be first, but if we look at 1975, 800 should be first.

Nevertheless, he is betting on inflation.

I Apologize. Didn't mean to get so emotional and defensive. Just don't like my patriotism being attacked.

http://tinyurl.com/y8oysq8

I am also looking into how to take advantage of a new twitter app i found, focused on twitter users who tweet trades and thoughts, where you can track in real time during market hours.

http://stocktwits.com

Founder explains the concept: http://tinyurl.com/5u4xg8

You can follow me on twitter if you have an account: http://twitter.com/StopInvesting

jock
Thank you for the link that was AMAZING!

There are some other ones by her. Like this one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzfX7hsKY3Y&feature...

[BTW...she WON!]

tbar

Good job on the chart. That's a keeper.

GTC trade, one cancels the other

buy limit EFU 39.36
buy limit REW 168
buy limit SSG

Entries based on the Sept 23 reversal (halfway between open and LOD), wait for a retest.

10 day ATR's
EFU 1.54
REW .81
SSG 1.00

so buy REW, SSG, and EFU most to least number of shares since REW is less volatile.

All 3 in Triple RSI buy mode.

Do your own homework.

Thanks for posting this. The most beautiful thing I've seen recently. Especially moving as I speak Russian.

I see that the market futures are down now, after 3 down days for the market, which suggests that the "buy the dips" mentality might have evaporated.

In this case, instead of incrementally covering my FCX short on the way down, I canceled all my buy to cover limit orders on it. Now, once FCX goes down below one of my orders, I'll place a buy to cover *stop* order at that level. In this way, if the market really collapses now, I'll probably close my FCX short at lower prices. I'll do the same thing for SRS -- instead of selling it incrementally on the way up, I'll keep moving up a sell stop order under it and will let it run.

Independent candidates are poised to run serious campaigns for governor in at least a half-dozen states, a development that threatens Democratic fortunes in some of the bluest and most progressive-minded states in the nation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090928/pl_polit...

Sincere or retread Dem and Rep??

golong,

No apology is necessary. I don't mean to offend, just to state my view.

I hope your daughter can smile every day too. You have what appears to be an idealistic or utopian view which I can't buy into. In my view any cross section of people is pretty much the same from a historical perspective. No system of governance and no society can be left on automatic pilot for long.

There will always be those who attempt to dominate and who I react against instinctively. I know you have found a place you see as better — to each his own. Whether you are not American or unAmerican, it is of no consequence to me unless you were to be anti-American. (Which is how I see those currently attempting to dominate here.) It appears that you are choosing not to be an American — which is your right. To each his own.

I know very little about the social conditions where you are, but I'd guess you are financially in the upper class of the society. I would also guess there is a significant number who are not genuinely happy and laughing everyday. That, no doubt, colors your view as it would anyone.

I don't think the values of most of us in America have changed significantly from those goals set forth in the Declaration and Constitution's Preamble. The reactions being expressed in town meetings, IMO, are more about the methods than about substance. Too few still understand just what has been happening and we've just begun to see unity in opposition. After having the stimulus rammed through the repeat with health care was a trigger.

I think there are those who, just as in all previous societies, have seized control and are out to serve only themselves. It is my view that we need to reverse this course before it slips any further. If this takes on the form of whining perhaps that is a needed step prior to the outrage which its necessary to force change.

We have a similar view of the quality of TV. We still have one where I keep in touch with what dismal programing passes for entertainment and a source of information. "Know your enemy" is what comes to mind. I simply read more books.

Best wishes to you and yours :-)

Good morning.

Upgrades:

AMAT - to Buy @ Citigroup
CSCO - to Overweight @ Barclays

Downgrade:

CCJ - to Hold @ Canaccord Adams

PT Raised:

DIS - from $29 to $30 @ Caris & Co. Above Average

With all the m&a news and notice that Goldman is planning to hire 200 asset managers, i think the weakness from last week will spur buying today. USD is cooperating this am. I am looking for a back test to broken support levels from last week.

And I am taking advantage short-term and sold my QID from late last week at gain. sitting in mostly cash waiting for higher prices for re-entry into short trade. Opened a spec day trade in FNM pre-market.

yeh the chart pattern trader remarked upon a probable temporary rebound based on MACDh on the 60 min chart.

These floods down in Georgia, Alabama etc - are they going to affect wheat/corn harvests? Anyone read anything?

MM's shaking down the shorts this morning...

same here

Yes they are having problems with their fiber to ISP connections. The status blog is up and running at the following link to keep everyone updated.

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/status/

"Sept. 28th, 2009 @ 6:00am - Internet Circuit Failed

Our Fiber Internet circuit is down again this morning. The problem started at We are checking with InterNAP and AboveNet to find out why. We will post messages here as we learn more.

9:30am - We have opened a trouble ticket with InterNAP. They are suspecting a problem with the cable and are contacting the cable owner, AboveNet. If there isn't a simple resolution shortly, we will be moving back onto the older T3 circuits again within the hour.

9:40am - Looks like the circuit actually went down exactly at midnight local time. That is very suspicious and hopefully means that there was some administrative error instead of a physical problem. I say "hopefully" because those kind of problems can be fixed much more easily."

Correction: I see now that it went down at 1:38am local time.

10:00am - We're trying to switch back to the old circuits now.

Yup they switched back to the old T3 circuits.

http://stockcharts.typepad.com/status/

Interesting, dollar is slightly up (compared to Friday PM), yet markets/gold/energy are rallying. The buy on dips is alive and well. I don't believe shorting will work in this juncture.

The dollar charts look like a constructive rebound (higher lows since Tuesday). The only thing that worries me that the weak dollar Rydex holdings fell precipitously. This is usually a contrarian sign. Anyone follows Rydex for contrarian trades?

I just opened a new Community Chat. Since Bill is out, commentary is from the CTA traders.