[8:14am ET] It’s interesting that the US President has decided to deal with the public through TV comedians like Jay Leno. Meanwhile on the serious TV talk shows on Sunday there was actually a debate on whether the President ought to fire the United Auto Workers president, now that he’s fired the CEO of General Motors and forced the resignations of people he’s named and shamed at AIG.
The last time I saw anything as ugly as this kind of political intervention, where law-abiding Americans lived in fear of politicians, was during the McCarthy Hearings of the 1950’s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_McCarthy
But what goes around comes around, as the saying goes.
People like Elizabeth Warren, Bill Black and other patriots are starting to wake up America. A quiet revolution is underway in regards to how the people are going to deal with big government, Humungous Bank & Broker and their clandestine operatives.
It’s like a light bulb went on and the working people can now see they have been little more than managed chattels of the system, and they don’t like it one bit. They are repudiating debt and turning to real assets like gold.
Nowhere more so than in the gold trade, however, has the cartel that has run the country for the past 75 years been up to their shenanigans. These reprobates in the Evil Axis of New York and Washington never allowed an investigation into illegal naked shorting of equities because that’s precisely what they have been doing with gold. They are never, I suspect, going to list the bar numbers or permit independent assay of the metal content of the gold the US Treasury says it owns on behalf of the people.
Pretty soon, the people will demand it.
This morning, despite fiat money being printed in much greater amounts and at by far the fastest rate in US history, with offsetting debt (because that’s how money is created), there are questions being raised as to the sustainability of the gold price. Rather than rally, the picture looks like the price could actually collapse.
Technical analyst Colin Twiggs, for example, today has issued a “Gold Warning”:
Spot gold broke through the band of support at $900 after earlier penetrating the rising trendline — signaling reversal to a down-trend. Expect support at the January low of $800, but the target is primary support at $700.
Interesting that liabilities can literally soar as paper money is flooded into the system, but real assets sink in price, breaking technical support levels. Yet, in the world of physical gold, which is free of debt (but not free of the price fixing), refiners have line-ups of buyers and the buyers can’t fill their orders. So, the contract market, which is controlled by HB&B, is a phony market and technical analysts, whether they like it or not, are forced to accept the data.
As I say, pretty soon the people will demand an audit, and America’s Evil Axis will crumble.
In the case of gold and silver, I don’t accept the data, but I still have to make trading decisions. When the price of gold was ten percent higher recently, I pointed people to support at 880. As I write this blog, June Gold contracts have been sitting for a couple hours at 880. The spot price is also at 880 at this point, but hit 875 a couple hours ago.
The market is coming to me. I am now preparing to write puts on GLD and some of the high-quality goldminers plus Silver Wheaton (SLV). That is a cautiously bullish position. I will not take an aggressive stance unless and until I see a break-out.
The broad equity indexes are looking to rally for a fifth straight week. That should be expected as long as the gold price does not break sharply higher, and as long as traders have, for some unknown reason, a risk appetite for the Financials.
Crazy world, eh?
Comments
Political intervention
"The last time I saw anything as ugly as this kind of political intervention, where law-abiding Americans lived in fear of politicians, was during the McCarthy Hearings of the 1950’s."
Just Chicago Politics, Hey, ya ain't seen nuttin yet!
The Herd is asking questions
I sell politically incorrect merchandise on weekends. I see many blue collar types and immigrants. I'm amazed at how many are asking questions and are worried about the debt and what those pieces of paper they take out of their wallet are really worth.
gold @ $875
what an overnight session.
gold at $875.
at this point it is confirmed that everything we think is bullish of gold is not, at least not in the short/intermediate term. we have been here before, many times: consolidate then plunge, consolidate jump up to resistance then plunge, then... explode upwards. its the reason gold is so hard to trade, it loves reversing on a dime catching people w/ their pants down.
right now $850-$860 seems fair in short order. then mabey some churning around. a retest of $900 will be a big marker of whats to come for the next few months. if she fails there it spells trouble imho.
the Fed gets the best of both worlds right now with an equity market rally, gold tanking, the major shock of money printing out of the way in the media, and USD falling but not tanking, and not broken down from its multi-month bear-market bounce pattern. (yet)
so they are sitting on a cloud for now i guess. let the Euro get cracked and the USD look better by comparison when the next mini crisis hits someone in the EU, and let china continue its rhetoric as it only seems to make gold go down while giving the impression that they are talking tough on the USD.
Fighting Recklessness with Recklessness
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090406.htm
"Look. You can play hot potato with the toxic assets all day long, and only outcome will be that the public will suffer the losses that would otherwise have been properly taken by the banks' own bondholders. You can tinker with the accounting rules all you want, and it won't make the banks solvent. It may improve “reported” earnings for a spell, but as investors who care about the stream of future cash flows that will actually be delivered to us over time, it is clear that modifying the accounting rules doesn't create value. It simply increases the likelihood that financial institutions will quietly go insolvent. I recognize that the accounting changes may reduce the immediate need for regulatory action, since banks will be able to pad their Tier 1 capital with false hope. But we have done nothing to abate foreclosures, and we are just about to begin a huge reset cycle for Alt-A's and option-ARMs. As the underlying mortgages go into foreclosure, it will ultimately become impossible to argue that the toxic assets would be worth much even in an “orderly transaction.”
Again, we won't fight a broad improvement if it continues sufficiently, but if I were to make a guess, it would be that the potential downside in the S&P 500 from these levels could approach 30-40%. That is not a typo, and it is not a possibility that should be ruled out."
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Downgrades:
GGB - to Sell @ Deutsche Securities
IBKR - to Market Perform @ Keefe Bruyette
IBM - to Hold @ Canaccord Adams
Price Targets Lowered:
DIS - from $24 to $23 @ Oppenheimer. Outperfrorm Rating.
FSLR - from $110 to $100 @ FBR Capital Markets. Market Perform Rating.
Gold and Silver may be heading for a swallow coffin today, but..
I reality it doesn't matter, my president has gone to the confessional over in France and finally confessed my arrogance and blatant disregard for all of the European peoples.
Personally I can't say I apologize to the European's for my phantom arrogance because in a free thinking society like America, I would rather let some elected politician categorize my misbehavior to the whole world.
Why didn't Goldman Sach's report their annual compensation proxy by the March 27 deadline?
Is Paulson's successor looking for a North Korean Missile launch distraction so Blankfein can keep GS running under the fraud tolerance threshold of the people that are laid off and out of all hope to join in on the American dream.
Greed and fraud is the future!
Out of FAS. 17% gain in 3 sessions
Dont want to participate in potential selloff this am. Not sure if this is a real selloff in financials or a shakeout. Only volume will tell at the open. so far very light volume pre market.
Re: The Herd is asking questions
ALOHA !!
Just what is "politically correct" these days?
The "herd" ... then "chattel" ... yet without "us" not much would actually get done in the World.
Chapter 17 of the Tao Te Ching: "In the highest antiquity, the people did not know that there were rulers. In the next age they loved them and praised them. In the next they feared them; in the next they despised them."
Nemo ... nice to meet you at the CTAB 2009!!
Re: The Herd is asking questions
Hey Nemo,
Glad you enjoyed the conference. Tell me, you've piqued my curiosity.....
What sorts of politically incorrect merch do you sell on weekends? (email me if you want to keep it secret)...I may want to buy some of your stuff!
Re: Out of FAS. 17% gain in 3 sessions
HB&B are up on the FTSE, despite the drop.
TARP REPAYMENT
ALOHA!!
All this talk about banks repaying TARP money has so far just been ... talk!
A look at the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT for April 2, 2009 and I see some $305bilUSD TARP paid to banks this year but ZERO paid back!
TALK IS CHEAP ... in fact its worth ZERO when banks talk!
Re: The Herd is asking questions
You also Kaimu. A great pleasure. Lao spoke about ideals, yet he was not an idealist. He was commenting on the perpetual cycle of the herd. 17 is part of the commentary with 18 and 19 on the Decline of Tao, and the hypocrisy of rulers.
Sharky-guns, bows, hunting equipment...hardly popular among the Cambridge crowd.
Re: The Herd is asking questions
Does this represent a change? Erin looks spectacular this morning, like a '70's television goddess. Is she parting her hair in the middle a new thing?
Along those lines so sorry to hear of Farrah. When I was a tiny she was the prototype of female beauty.
Nemo I hope that you occasionally site your bows by taking out a tweedy professor type or 2 strolling along Mass ave. Those guys have to know that they're targets:)
Switched sides to short financials.
Saw more selling pressure. Tight stops
Big Biz these days...
All my friends might be your customers Nemo!
A guy has to make a buck somewhere! I hope the politicians are paying attention as the populace arms themselves.....
The Cambridge crowd may come around sooner or later....aren't they still patting themselves on the back for the American Revolution? They have it in their blood if they'll just pay attention.
I saw an interesting story over the weekend on bombings on Wall Street in the 30's. So....are we worried about some goofball poppy grower from Afghanistan who couldn't get here for his life, or are we really worried about domestic "terrorism", or in other words, the PEOPLE defending themselves from class warfare? I have my opinions on the matter.
Cara 100 Update
Price Targets Lowered:
CSCO - from $15 to $14 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral
JNPR - from $14 to $13 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral
Re: Big Biz these days...
Well, if you've notice Posse Comitatus has been completely ignored. There are now 3 active duty military groups billeted for domestic assignment. I believe the term was, "to help quell civil disturbance in the event of a terrorist attack." Of course, you have to define "terrorist." I think Washington, Payne, Franklin, Adams, et. al. were considered terrorists by the British. Anyway, I deal with many cops. Had the conversation with them last week, that they might want to find another line of work, because they'll bear the brunt of the masters' folly. Next day, Pittsburgh.
Thicker then oil on top of water
Whats with the fake news GS underwriting the HSBC rites offering.
HSBC is offering 50 additional shares for every 120 shares that their shareholders already own for 254 pence, thats 3.75 fiat IOU's per share.
Looks like GS is protecting their previous investment in HSBC with a rites purchase of 3.75 a share for every bundle of 50 shares they contracted to purchase with the US taxpayers money (TARP).
Call it Underwriting if you choose, I call it more TARP fraud.
The fiat is tanking and people are being told lie after lie to turn bankster fraud into forced tolerance.
The 50 million dollar question is how many pension accounts were robbed so Blankfein can be compensated some yet-to-be-revealed amount?
Greed is the future to the American dream!
Re: Switched sides to short financials.
haha on the opposite side of your trade.
Learned new lesson.
Tried to fill FAZ order at 16.05, didn't understand why wouldn't fill.
Well, found and clicked the button that allowed me to trade out of hours.
By that FAZ had moved and I thought the pendulum had sufficiently swung.
small loss at present on FAS. lots of volatility. wait and see.
Cara 100 Update
CSCO - Downgraded at Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Buy based on valuation following recent rally. Shares are now trading at 17 times 2010 estimates. Believe company is gaining share from vendors such as Nortel and HP, and seeing increased demand for collaboration products such as Unified Communications, WebEx and TelePresence. Price target at $18.
INTC - target raised at Barclays to $17. March quarter will likely come in ahead of expectations. Equal-weight rating.
KSS - target raised at Barclays to $50. Company will likely outperform the competition over the coming months. Overweight rating.
QCOM - target raised at Deutsche to $42. Hearing positive data points about Qualcomm's unit shipments. Buy rating.
TCK
The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that Teck Cominco plans to pull off a series of transactions in coming weeks that include more than $2-billion in asset sales, a debt restructuring and a potential equity issue. The Globe's Andy Hoffman and Andrew Willis write the first move in a string of asset sales would likely be an agreement by Teck to sell the 65,000 ounces of gold produced annually from its Andacollo Hypogene project in Chile to Royal Gold, a Denver precious metals royalty company. As part of the plan to lessen its crippling $9.4-billion (U.S.) debt load, Teck also may sell the 2.5 million ounces of silver it produces each year at its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska. Silver Wheaton may be a buyer. The gold and silver stream sales could fetch about $400-million for Teck. Canada's largest base metals miner is struggling to reduce the enormous debt load it incurred from its top-of-the-market, $14-billion (Canadian) takeover of Fording Canadian Coal Trust last year. Teck must begin paying down a $4-billion (U.S.) term loan in April, and a bridge loan now worth $5.35-billion is due at the end of October. It is now in talks with its lenders to renegotiate the debt payments.
Update
Stock of possible interest:
NGD - Canaccord Adams Initiates Coverage with a Buy. Price Target = $3.30
MOS
sold some of the $40 puts at $1.25 that I bought at $.95. Looking at going short in the short term.
Intervention
"The last time I saw anything as ugly as this kind of political intervention, where law-abiding Americans lived in fear of politicians, was during the McCarthy Hearings of the 1950’s."
Goes to show how far these criminals are willing to go, they keep doubling down with OPM. Never admit the truth, it proves you wrong! Don't expect anything different, you can count on it!
Re: Big Biz these days...
Of course, you have to define "terrorist."
The political elite aren't terrorists, they are criminals.
I just did really well on a
I just did really well on a JAVA trade long.....Probably killed it early.
Yup sure did kill it early.
Re: The Herd is asking questions
Funny thing that. I use the new iPhone, and scrolling endlessly through the day's messages had me place Bill on ignore by accident. The Safari software for iPhone does not automatically index to the 'new' anchor (#new) in the web page. You have to go to the top of the page, then reload, and scroll to the bottom when done. So when SA's message came up, it was on ignore, which was unintended.
Technicals - Gold
Refer to my previous posts. Now, how low do these individual stocks go ? Try AUY at $6.00. Try SLW at $5.00 Af you are short, great call, if you are long, too bad!
Twiggs- Link to the full report/index targets
http://tinyurl.com/54qccl
"The Dow closed at short-term resistance at 8000. Twiggs Money Flow (21_day) crossing to above zero indicates continuation of the rally and 9000 is now within reach. The primary trend, however, remains downward and respect of 9000 would warn of another down-swing. Reversal below 6500 would offer a target of 5000 (calculated as 6500 - [ 8000 - 6500 ])."
"Nasdaq 100 broke through resistance at 1300 to complete a wide double bottom reversal — offering a target of 1550 (calculated as 1300 + [ 1300 - 1050]). Look for confirmation from the Nasdaq Composite [COMP] rising above 1650. The index is more bullish than its counterparts, supported by strong gains from the likes of Apple [AAPL], Amazon [AMZN] and Sun Microsystems [JAVA]. However, tech stocks do not trade in isolation and a poor earnings season for the Dow/S&P 500 would drag the Nasdaq lower."
Also I really wussed out not
Also I really wussed out not buying MGM even though I was sitting there with a filled out form.......at 5
What a battlefield. bought
What a battlefield.
bought QLD @ 29.69
bought FAS pre-market @ 6.77
Speaking of Elizabeth Warren
US watchdog calls for bank executives to be sacked
Warren, a Harvard law professor and chair of the congressional oversight committee monitoring the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program (Tarp), is also set to call for shareholders in those institutions to be "wiped out".
Finally, someone who actually calls for those who took the risk to accept responsibility for their bad choices. How refreshing!
Oh, and while we're at it, why isn't Bill Black in a position of authority rather than people like Summers?
eslr @ 2.16.
...
Ford - lady luck
During the last moments in trading on friday, I was going back and forth between buying the red or the black (fas or faz) but I just could not pull the trigger. Then to my amazement, I made this instant buy of Ford. Yes,FORD. I planned to sell this morning due to my wreckless move but wow, it is GREEN ...
I will take it!
Out of FAZ
Looking for next trade
Re: Also I really wussed out not
Why buy MGM with its $10 Billion or so in debt when you can buy FRX at $22 with it's $10/share in cash and no debt? That's what I did just now. Great company in a great industry, given the propensity for the government to reduce prescription costs going forward...
LVS
It took all my might but I actually convinced myself to get back into LVS on Friday at the close. Glad I did. What an odd ride it's been. On another note, got some interesting info on OSK...could be good news shortly down the road....I sure hope so considering I'm in at 5.50.
Re: Also I really wussed out not
"Why buy MGM with its $10 Billion or so in debt?"
Because the stock went from under 5 to almost 7 in less than a half hour...Isn't that reason enuff?
Re: Ford - lady luck
vb- In this case, a little reckless driving (although in your case, 'wreckless' is an appropriate word) with F saved you from spending the weekend in FAS/FAZ alley, which IMO would have meant parking it in a bad, bad neighborhood. Congrats.
Adding to SLW @ 7.40
...
Re: IMF Gold Sales
When it comes to IMF gold sales in order to 'help the poor,' I can't get over how much of a bald faced lie that is.
Large 'sales' of bulk quantities of gold, which is really owned by the public trust, mean that the asset is being transferred to the commercial banking sector through credit default swaps. The amount of gold in question, some 400 tonnes is being used to initiate an expansion in the derivatives trade, and thus presumably another asset bubble 'recovery' no different than the LTCM set up.
You start with leasing the gold several times over. We'll use 10X, since this was the number quoted by Paulson when referring to how liquidity is used in the commercial banking sector. So the gold is leased out 10X over. So we have, in effect, assets totalling ~$130 billion US. Tied into this trade are the interest rate derivatives on the gold leases, which are again, 10X the asset amount, which will only increase in asset value if the interest rate on bullion leases increase. In effect, we have created $1.3 Trillion US in liquidity. Yet the gold is still only worth $13 Billion US. If the asset bubble took hold in every sector, then you could easily have a quadrillion dollar bet.
A huge expansion of gold leases will depress the price, while the interest rates on bullion should increase. If someone (the original bullion holder) can no longer pay the default swap rates due to a decline in bullion lease rates, then the gold is forfeit. So the IMF is engaging in the same type of lending that brought down the commercial banking sector. What is so cynical about it all is that they will be lending to developing nations which are sure to default. Sound familiar?
For this to occur, you need a couple of things. A relaxation of mark to market rules. And a supply of risk free assets such as a pile of unused gold that nobody would notice if it was swapped out. All subsidized by the U.S. taxpayer. Lease rates have been steady, with short term rates in the negative. Short term rates must be low. The moons appear to be lining up. No wonder they have Kudlow flogging the recovery in such a manic fashion.
This is the primary risk in the gold sector, that gold prices will suffer during these expansions of liquidity.
Re: Also I really wussed out not
"Why buy MGM with its $10 Billion or so in debt when you can buy FRX at $22 with it's $10/share in cash and no debt? That's what I did just now. Great company in a great industry, given the propensity for the government to reduce prescription costs going forward..."
Specifically, Obama could just fire a few CEO's to get those prices down.
DROOY
buy stop 7.23/7.30 limit GTC
do your own homework.
TNA, USD, ROM
Placing limit orders about 1% below intraday lows. Got to run...good luck.
Re: Ford - lady luck
You go vanillabean! You too sharkie! My TCK just keeps climbing, hard to let it go when you know it's worth much more than the market believes. It might not be the best trade going, but it's working...
Re: Also I really wussed out not
it could easily go back to $2, though. that's straight gambling...and with a casino stock no less.
Re: DROOY
So you're using support from 07 -08 and current (hopefully) level?
Other than that it reminds me of a miniature version of the S&P without our latest rally....:>)
Re: The Herd is asking questions
I should probably borrow an iPhone to do some site testing. Maybe turning off things like single-click-to-ignore for devices like that could help a lot (perhaps making it so you can ignore someone from their user profile page instead). Thanks for pointing that out!
Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
Selling appears to be contained. Backed up far enough to take on a few new passengers.
joining Les for a FAS play @ 6.75
...
trying a little ERX @ 26.65
...
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
RE:>Selling appears to be contained. Backed up far enough to take on a few new passengers.
scared me there a little. was steeling myself to sell. don't have a concrete exit strategy. Something that'll have to be worked on.
Re: DROOY
The buy stop limit is based on Friday's 3PM closing price + 5% of the 10 day ATR. The 3PM price is where the big boys were willing to hold/buy. I'm willing to give up a bit and let them get me long.
trying a little QLD @ 29.38
...
Quote of the day
He who is not willing to earn small amounts of money in this market chooses instead to lose larger amounts.
Re: Quote of the day
hmm, I'm thinking about scalping after observing this mornings actions. Most frustrating to give up the small gains.
Re: Quote of the day
Take the small gains. They add up to large gains.
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
2nd
Don’t wants to sound too negative but passengers will be pushing each other to get off the train as fast as possible
Before it hits some unknown object that is my feeling
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
"Don’t wants to sound too negative but passengers will be pushing each other to get off the train as fast as possible
Before it hits some unknown object that is my feeling"
Vinod- LOL, can you get any more negative than that? OK, I respect your instincts, and will incorporate that into my take. Thanks for responding.
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
volume's light Vinod. There's plenty of room for everyone on that train :)
Re: trying a little QLD @ 29.38/out @ 29.40
cutting back on exposure and watching..
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
Les- Vinod has a very sensitive nose, and I defer to him more often than not.
Re: Quote of the day / Question
Small gains add up!! :-)
Question.......which of the big hitters in Tech and the Dow report first besides AA?
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
2nd
When $ goes up gold goes down oil also stay steady or goes down
But US$ is going down while gold and oil also going down. When US $ goes down –market goes up
This sequence is not playing out base on note I keep.
May be my note is not correct or market move is a suspect
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
>I defer to him more often than not.
done.
FRX
Bought some more at $22. They now have $2.8 Billion in net cash/cash equivs ($10/share) and no debt. Company is valued at $6.6 Billion ($22/share). Excluding cash, they are trading at $12/share or less than 4 times EPS estimates. They generate over $1 Billion in free cash flow each year. In 3.5 years they will have the same amount of cash on their balance sheet as they are currently worth.
Re: Quote of the day / Question
dberryclan- Many earnings calendars out there, this one's as good as any. INTC next Tuesday.
http://tinyurl.com/cecbn9
Re: joining Les for a FAS play @ 6.75/out @ 6.72
...
Re: trying a little ERX @ 26.65/off @ 26.29
thanks, vinod.
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
Les- As you know, it's not necessary to trade every day. If there's no crowd at the craps table, or no probability distributions at the baccarat tables that look good, I just keep walking. (And if table action does not unfold as predicted, I leave.)
Weakness
1) Treasury's PPIP is being delayed once again 2) Bank analyst gets anal this morning 3) Unemployment losses still large and unabated 4) BDI in a downtrend.
Weakness is understandable, but gold being down supports market strength, I would believe.
Market approaching oversold
I am looking at trailing PE ratio on S & P.
Can anyone tell me why this is not a valid indicator?
edit: This is on a short time frame also...the 50 day crossed the 200 day recently on this time frame also.
Selling losing steam
Might have been a shakeout this am. Wouldn't surprise me if we closed green.
Re: Weakness
more fake outs in that bunch than OJ running in his prime during the 70's,
Re: Market approaching oversold
"Can anyone tell me why this is not a valid indicator?"
It's valid from my POV, is the coefficient larger now than coefficient of sentiment? I think sentiment is weaker today, oversold indicator subtracts from sentiment.
Who has a formula that attempts to capture and summarize these indicators?
(3x^3 + 4y^2 + 5z + c + .... ~= probability)
FAS- mental buy limit @ 5.95/6
Should support for XLF hold at 9.10...
Re: Market approaching oversold
"(3x^3 + 4y^2 + 5z + c + .... ~= probability)"
CP- We knew we could count on you ;)
Mid-day thoughts
Four point differential in VXX to VXZ the presage to problems coming in?
Who's the fall guy here? Seems like it's obvious...Geithner, an insider, being accused by some of a coverup, with a fairly weak stage presence. I'm not saying it's fair (plenty of blame to go around), but he's following a lit fuse.
Sox called off Opening Day early...what no windfall and dogs and beer for the disappointed patrons?
planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
I'm thinking that incorporating the President's Day holiday on Feb 15, plus Chinese/Lunar New Year and Valentine's Day on Feb 14, might work. As I'm trying to please the majority, please send me your thoughts.
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
oof, if I can get out of frozen Europe for a Florida junket in the middle of February, count me in!
edit: sorry, that should read conference.
Re: Mid-day thoughts
Ron
I am also disappointed with ticket in my hand for our beloved Red Sox. nemo are you coming to see the game ?
Re: Mid-day thoughts
That's an interesting perspective:
http://tinyurl.com/cgogyc
Unfortunately, less than two months' data. Do we have access to historical data via other sources?
Re: Mid-day thoughts
Can't say that I am. Haven't been to a sox game since Pedro was pitching
Re: Quote of the day
"...small gains... add up to large gains"
I thought it sounded very familiar...
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/sc...
:)
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference/Year of the Tiger
I like the idea.
Re: Market approaching oversold
2nd - Well you're absolutely right, it's entirely subjective.
Re: CTAB 2010/Vad
Vad- Are you planning to present again? Topics?
Re: Mid-day thoughts
My wife wants me to call her Pedro...I never take her out...
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
We will hold it at Our Lucaya resort in Freeport Bahamas with the resort owner, Hutchison Whampoa, providing the support we need to beat expectations, which have now soared.
I'll discuss the changes in a post-conference report, but one will definitely be a whole day break-out session for total beginners.
Re: CTAB 2010/Vad
2nd
CTAB
I am going and will register earlier
Will be watching 04/01/2009 closed of 7761 and 1551.
It breaks or not?
Re: Mid-day thoughts
Hmmm...a little TMI? :-)
Trying to find a ST entry point for FAS
Not too happy about pulling the trigger here.
Re: CTAB 2010/Vad
Vinod, it could be lower as 50 DMA slopes down so the intersection at resistance may be lower than the previous 50 dma level.
Madoff follow-up
WSJ published the following: "New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo charged J. Ezra Merkin with civil fraud, alleging he "betrayed hundreds of investors" by funneling $2.4 billion of clients' money into Bernard Madoff's multibillion dollar Ponzi scheme without their knowledge... Cuomo doesn't allege that Merkin was aware of Madoff's scheme. The complaint alleges that Merkin, a New York financier and former chairman of GMAC, raised billions from charities, universities and individuals, and lied about putting the bulk of it with Madoff. He failed to disclose conflicts of interest and collected over $470 million in fees for his three hedge funds, according to the complaint."
How many Fund of Funds are in the same situation, not just with Madoff, but with any other manager? Every fiduciary has an obligation to disclose their interests in full. I think every investing individual and organization should enquire of their Fund managers if there were possible conflicts or undisclosed interests. If the information is not forthcoming, I would certainly send the info to the authorities and demand answers.
This problem must be resolved now because, in time, market prices come back and illegal behavior is often forgotten. The same thing will happen in the next market cycle.
Re: CTAB 2010/Vad
Unless the feedback survey says "we hated your guts", yes :)
On topics - I want to go over the survey and to see the time allocated before deciding, but at this point my thinking is:
- keep most of the topics from 2009 as they all seemed to be appreciated;
- expand on psychology session as it was referred most often in later conversations;
- add a fully new one, kind of practical application: going over actual charts of the most typical trades blow-by-blow with gradual uncovering of the right side of the chart in order to discuss and imitate our actions, then see how they would pan out.
All above is a subject of re-thinking as feedback builds up. See, this conference was somewhat an unusual one for me: in all previous instances I was speaking to pure short-term trading audiences; this time it was more of an audience in a process of transition from buy-and-hold to trading mentality. So I incorporated more of transitioning stuff and lightened up a bit on heavy "nuts-and-bolts" trading stuff. I need to get a feel of whether I got the balance right in order to fine-tune it for the next time. Thus the tentative character of my musings at this point :)
Any of conference participants have any comments to me on the above, they'll be greatly appreciated!
Re: Market approaching oversold
Lol...thanks cp, I needed that.
erx @ 25.95
...
Re: CTAB 2010/Vad
'- expand on psychology session as it was referred most often in later conversations;
- add a fully new one, kind of practical application: going over actual charts of the most typical trades blow-by-blow with gradual uncovering of the right side of the chart in order to discuss and imitate our actions, then see how they would pan out.'
That's exactly what I would suggest... though I think I only mentioned the 2nd one in my conference feedback.
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
Feedback I'm getting is that Chinese/Lunar New Year is probably not a good time. I'd like to hear more (billcara at gmail.com).
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
Mid-February sounds good. 1 fewer trading day to miss and more incentive to escape Winter weather.
FAS @ 6.61
Could be a FASt one..
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
Yes, having the conference occur during a holiday weekend could make a difference in my wife coming with me next year. I expect to be there regardless :-)
This year's conference was great. Definitely worth attending. Learned a lot about investing. Spent the past weekend reviewing my notes from the conference, checking web sites of conference speakers, and ordered a couple of their books. Looking forward to applying what I learned.
Re: FAS @ 6.61/out @ 6.61
Kids are ready to go out. See you all later.
Deposits at JP Morgan
Haven't any of these people ever heard of a mattress? I wonder how much they could pay out if people wanted the money? I wonder how much the FDIC could pay if JP Morgan couldn't. I wonder how much in deposits C or BAC have. I'm surprised people trust these banks with their money. I know I wouldn't.
"JPMorgan had $1.01 trillion in deposits among its $2 trillion in liabilities at the end of 2008, according to the bank’s annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."
http://tinyurl.com/c37b3d
Rob.
BIS Outlines Silver Fraud
Paper silver continues to suppress physical silver...
In the past, I've pointed out various frauds in the silver market such as, the excessive futures contracts on the COMEX, the excessive trading in "London" silver, and the excess silver in the new ishares Silver ETF, SLV.
The number of "Single currency interest rate derivatives in other precious metals (SILVER)" from June 2006 to June 2008, in two short years, more than doubled:
From $84 billion to $190 billion!
That's about 40 times larger of a fraud than I had thought.
This is serious news. This is original reporting. Will any other news agency cover it? Probably not.
How much new paper silver is that?
Well, the physical silver investor market annual demand is about $1.3 -$2 billion per year! And yet, they sold $100 billion in new paper silver in the span of 2 years, which is over 50 times as much paper silver as exists in the world annual physical silver investment market!
http://tinyurl.com/dla9gc
Re: FAS @ 6.61/out @ 6.61
Have fun. My little one is resting now and I'll be picking the other up in a couple of hours. Our spring break is next week. I wonder if they rotate spring break so the airlines and roads aren't packed. If everyone had it at once like Thanksgiving, it would be hard to fly anywhere.
Rob.
SSO
SSO has been vacillating around 21.80 where I sold it Thursday. I'm on the sidelines until I see if this is the pause that refreshes or another downdraft.
Rob.
dumb money out/smart money in
According to a study by Barrons (?) ... or somebody ... big money takes over the market at this time of day ... 2pm on.
Re: Madoff follow-up
Lack of disclosure while syphoning fees and throwing it all into a ponzi could keep a lot of lawyers busy for a long while. Realtors redefined fiduciary with the 'buyer's broker' sham. Perhaps it's time to redefine FIDUCIARY with some new case law.
I remember when GMAC wouldn't do a real estate loan under $30 million. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Merkin is a rather ironic name but I won't go there. Just chuckling to myself here.
Ford
Serious volume today on a nice gain. Big money locking in on the last one standing?
No position.
SILVER AT AUCTION
ALOHA !!
Pricing "real silver", the actual bars and coins you buy and hold tells a completely opposite story than what is being shown on the COMEX today.
The auctioned silver bullion for sale on Ebay and auctions like SilverSeek are selling around $17 per ounce.
The disparity in prices on the COMEX, or as some call CRIMEX, is still significant ...
Once again the exact same banks we US TAXPAYERS have been bailing out are the same ones playing derivative games on the COMEX with no intention of ever making good on deliveries not to mention using the GLD and SLV ETFs as "stake money".
Has everyone forgotten that JP MORGAN got a $138bilUSD pass on its counterparty exposure to LEHMANS right before LEHMANS BKed? Somehow that has been ever so conveniently swept under the rug and I never hear it mentioned one bit today! Essentially JP MORGAN would be BK without that "band-aid". Now where did that money go and how much of it stayed at JP MORGAN and how much got passed onto GOLDMAN SACHS and the other derivatives players? How many foreign banks like Deutsche Bank got some of that $138bil?
Just exactly what is going on with the LEHMAN bankruptcy court case? We never hear a peep out of that fraud ...
PROTECT YA TINGS
ALOHA!!
So when the States try to take action against the market manipulators this is what they get in response ...
SIFMA comes in and files a lawsuit on behalf of all the naked shorts at HB&B. Who is SIFMA? Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. Hummmmm??? Want to know who the members of SIFMA are who filed the lawsuit against Utah?
members link: http://www.sifma.org/about/members/
Essentially Utah did not feel the SEC was doing their job when it comes to the "fail to deliver law", but when complaining to the SEC yielded no action then the State Of Utah decided to take action on its own and you get this ...
READ ON:
Utah Settlement and Clearing Law
Background
Utah Legislature Votes to Repeal ‘Fail to Deliver Law’ Challenged by SIFMA* - March 1, 2007
* In November, 2006, the Securities Industry Association (SIA) merged with the Bond Market Association to form SIFMA. SIA was the original party to the lawsuit.
The Securities Industry Association (SIA) filed suit in federal court to overturn Utah legislation that requires broker-dealers to inform that state's Division of Securities when there is a "failure to deliver" securities issued by Utah companies that are traded on national markets. In the suit, filed in July of 2006, SIA argues the Utah legislation illegally usurps the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission and is expressly preempted by federal securities law. As part of its complaint, SIA is seeking a temporary restraining order and has requested a permanent injunction prohibiting the application of the law.
The Utah law, SB 3004, would affect transactions after October 1, 2006. Despite the fact that it is intended to regulate "naked" or uncovered short selling, the new regulatory requirements are not narrowly tailored to address only instances of "naked" or uncovered short selling. Rather, the law applies to all "fails to deliver," including covered short selling and purchases of a stock when the buyer expects the price to rise.
On August 11, 2006, SIA and the Utah Division of Securities stipulated to a preliminary injunction (pdf) (set to expire on June 1, 2007), which may create an opportunity to reach a permanent resolution of the matter. If that does not occur, the preliminary injunction does not forego any of SIA's options to continue to press all of its legal claims.END
Okay ...
ELIMINATE THE US FED ... Bank members of the US FED are the same SIFMA members. Once again the MIDDLEMAN is skimming profits like the MAFIA skims profits on VEGAS CASINOS. The DECK is rigged and reshuffling will achieve nothing ...
ELIMINATE THE US FED ...
Only one Presidential candidate had that as a platform ... RON PAUL!
bought some SLW
Well, the $7.25 buy limit order I placed on SLW last night was not reached, but I still bought, just now, 500 shares of SLW at $7.52, as a starting point for accumulating a much larger position in SLW. If I see SLW under $7, I'll sell $7.50 puts on it covering at least 1000 shares.
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
brent, I am now looking at around the Martin Luther King Day holiday weekend -- third Monday in Jan. The 18th I think.
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
Mon,Feb 15 2010 is the Family Day in Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan
not sure it this info makes a difference.
Re: Big Biz these days...
"...are we worried about some goofball poppy grower from Afghanistan who couldn't get here for his life, or are we really worried about domestic "terrorism", or in other words, the PEOPLE defending themselves from class warfare? I have my opinions on the matter."
To discriminate would be too un-PC for me.
out FAZ 16.85 (in Fri 16.19)
who knows where it goes from here... was just a trade, nothing more
Dave
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
I sure hope to make it to next years conference, and my only concern with such an early date in the year is that the weather, while pleasant, isn't probably warm enough for a family, beach oriented getaway. Obviously not the intent of the conference, but an easier sell to the wife :)
sold some FAS puts
On Friday, I covered 10 contracts of FAS $5 April short puts, extracting 90% gain from the trade and freeing up my buying power. Today, a little while ago, I sold 10 contracts of FAS $6 May puts at $1.25.
I decided to fight ultra-ETFs using their own weapon -- volatility. That is, if they are so volatile, then I'll try to make all my entries into them via selling puts first. And if those shares don't get assigned to me, then I'll still be making a 20% gain in a month for the cash I put aside (using the example of the FAS puts I just sold), which is enough for me.
Re: Intervention
The spin continues to dominate MSM.
Hilary put the blame for Mexican drug violence as "...90% guns coming from the US." But this weekend FOX reported "(90% have no serial numbers and can't be traced — the real data: 90% of the traceable guns came from US."
Another one from Hussman today:
"...some analysts have noted that year-over-year consumer spending has only declined very slightly, hailing this as evidence that economic concerns are overblown. The difficulty is that consumer spending has never on a year-over-year basis, except in this downturn,"
The WHOLE TRUTH makes it a bit different.
Bank Stress Tests Under Major Fire
A few choice words from a former bank regulator...
The bank stress tests currently underway are “a complete sham,” says William Black, a former senior bank regulator and S&L prosecutor, and currently an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri - Kansas City. “It’s a Potemkin model. Built to fool people.” Like many others, Black believes the “worst case scenario” used in the stress test don’t go far enough.
The former regulator is extremely critical of Geithner, calling him a “failed regulator” now “adding to failed policy” by not allowing “banks that really need desperately to be closed” to fail.
Black says the stress test must also be viewed in the context of Geithner’s toxic debt plan, which he calls “an enormous taxpayer subsidy for people who caused the problem.” The fact bank stocks have been rising since Geithner unveiled his plan is “bad news for taxpayers,” he says. “It’s the subsidy of all history."
http://tinyurl.com/dzme68
One fill...
One out of 3, TNA filled @ 19.96. Man, volumes bad across the board.
Edit 1/2 off @ 20.60.
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
ALOHA !!
Bill ... any time in JAN is great for me ... holiday or no holiday!
The CTAB 2009 I got caught in a lot of the SPRING BREAK traffic!
Re: sold some FAS puts
David, I would do some research on the likes of FAS, et. al., because they do not priced or behave in any way like an ordinary stock or option. Even the people who created them say in the prospectus that they are intended for day trading. A good place to start might be http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/. A month or so ago, they went in to a lot of detail on them. Another place is TheStreet.com as they also had numerous highly detailed articles explaining the dangers.
Good luck on those...
Re: sold some FAS puts
David has "plenty" of experience with the ultra's. Most good.
I took FAZ for a walk in the park overnight, also picked up some UXG today at 1.96.
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
My experience (in a normal economy) is that February U.S. airline travel around the President Day holidays is second only to Thanksgiving in terms of passenger load. The airlines price fares based on this demand.
U.S. airline travel around the MLK holiday in mid January is much lighter and prices tend to be attractive to the traveler.
Something to keep an eye on
Upcoming auctions of long-term securities this week.
Treasuries Close Lower Amid Supply Concerns
8 minutes ago
- Treasuries moved to the downside over the course of the trading on Monday, as investors considered supply factors in the bond market amid record sales of government-backed debt. After seeing some strength early on amid a sell-off on Wall Street, the benchmark ten-year note steadily ceded ground, moving into negative territory in the afternoon. The yield on the note closed at 2.941 percent, an increase of 3.4 basis points on the day....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=40620091106
pause-rewind-pause
We may get that for another day or two, before we take off. Hopefully going up, and not down ;)
Vinod- Has your uneasiness subsided?
planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
Any real interest of having the conference in South Florida as once mentioned? It might be cheaper for the average person to fly to Miami or Ft Lauderdale rather than into Nassau.
Re: sold some FAS puts
David- Well, it's hard to find positions that trigger the fight-or-flight reaction more easily than the 3x ETFs. To the best of my recollection(s), you were the first person in the ethernet to model/post the time/volatility decay inherent in 2x ETFs.
Pz- Good luck. I've tried taking her for an overnight ride, only to have it end up the other way around ;)
Re: sold some FAS puts
2nd
tight leash on it as always.
Anymore, overnight is an investment. :')
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
I recall the possibility of looking into the addition of Web conferencing, most likely limited to certain presentations. If this is the case, then scheduling events during weekend/holiday hours would undoubtedly increase participation.
Re: sold some FAS puts
Options on leveraged ETFs perform significantly worse than options on the underlyings. Thus, selling options on leveraged ETFs should in theory be a better deal than options on the underlyings. So, as such, selling options on them it's an interesting concept. The problem is that the option puts forces the writer to buy the underlying, and buying the underlying is a very bad idea as most of the money disappears.
Given that by far the vast majority of money disappears from leveraged ETFs for anyone who holds overnight (80 to 96% loss), it would be interesting to see what is the performance for the daytraders.
Do the daytraders here track how many times you have bought the 2Xs or 3Xs and how many of those trades were profitable, and what is the total gain or loss?
Re: sold some FAS puts
I like that statement "overnight is an investment"
is this an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming?
http://tinyurl.com/ccosgl
here is a comparison chart from stockcharts.com explanation of Inverse Head & shoulders patterns.
http://tinyurl.com/dl9myf
Re: sold some FAS puts
"I like that statement 'overnight is an investment'"
Sounds a lot like spending the night is a commitment ;)
Given the decay properties of FAS, I'm not sure how reliable chart patterns would be. But there seems to be a muted version of it setting up on XLF-> high volume spike above 10 might do it.
Merideth Whitney was on at 3:30
it wasnt a bullish segment by any means but her bearishness was a little more muted than usual.
http://tinyurl.com/d26rdc
EDIT: There is a video on that link, for you non readers like myself.
Re: sold some FAS puts
"Sounds a lot like spending the night is a commitment"
Definitely, you must be willing to gnaw your arm off the next morning as well.
7 for 10
ALOHA !!
The Ford news is uplifting, especially for its share price.
Buried in this uplifting news is this ... "In the credit default swaps market, where investors bet on a company's creditworthiness, the cost of protecting $10 million of Ford's senior bonds for five-years dropped to $6.4 million plus a $500,000 annual fee, according to CMA DataVision. On Friday, it cost investors $6.63 million plus the $500,000 annual fee."END
Who will pay $7mil to a questionably solvent counterparty to insure $10mil? So with all this good news comes a drop of 3.5% on CDS rates ... I am not sure I'd want to meet the guy who has no qualms paying $7mil to save $10mil in these fraudulent times ... Hummmm??
Then there was not much explanation as to how this works to the benefit of existing shareholders? What did Ford sell and how much dilution?
"The cash-and-equity offer launched by Ford last month will lower its debt by $9.9 billion."
Lowered its debt, so what debt is left?
Can't they just spell out more details in these news releases instead of tailoring them to offer cheap temporary thrills?
As far as I can see with more unemployment you get less car buyers not more, especially in the "new car sales" category!
Unless you are TATA ... Will those cars ever make it to the USA or will the unions prohibit them? According to the TATA website they only exported 1,800 vehicles in March 2009.
Wow ... the TATA NANO is a two-cylinder auto, jeez my tractor has three-cylinders! So in the TATA WORLD my Massey-Ferguson tractor is a muscle car! A TRACTOR GOAT!
The TATA Group is a lot more than just cheap cars ...
Link: http://www.tata.com
Re: 7 for 10
Kaimu,
TATAs sell their trucks in Asia, Africa & even China. They are quite good in that business besides steel, cement, IT and other interests (its a well run company overall). Actually Nano opens a new segment. At USD 2K, even with high import tariffs etc, it could be a car for the masses in africa & SE Asia. Its visioned to be a replacement for the bikes, so if that vision visualizes, this product could be adding quite a chunk to revenues of Tata Motors (maybe 4 or 5 years down the line).
Re: sold some FAS puts
CP
Your right.
Hoping not to have a case of "Coyote Love" tomorrow AM. LOL
HB&B
Humungous Bank & Broker: It would appear Bill you may soon have to change this title as the whole bunch of them together are now worth about as much as 100 shares of Enron..........
Re: sold some FAS puts
"is this an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming?
http://tinyurl.com/ccosgl"
Good eye. Compare to the chart from a year ago that I showed during first session in Nassau: http://www.realitytrader.com/NQ%20daily.png
If there is a connection, I am happy to see you are immediately applying what you saw. If there is not, good eye anyway.
Re: HB&B
LOL... NSHAB&B? As in Not So Humongous Anymore...?
No Selling conviction today
I like the last minute comeback too.
But story can change quickly. Trying not to think, just trading what i see. also been working on my "if-then" scenarios on each trade before i buy anything.
Re: sold some FAS puts
Thanks, jmorris1950. I have been observing ultra-longs for some time now (and analyzing them in my mind and on spreadsheets) and I think I have a reasonably good understanding of the risks involved. But thanks again for the warning...
Re: sold some FAS puts
"The problem is that the option puts forces the writer to buy the underlying, and buying the underlying is a very bad idea as most of the money disappears."
SiO2, I think the above statement is a bit too extreme. I made a post in the "Saturday Chat" section at 20:06 which demonstrated how one can get a better absolute dollar gain for a smaller level of risk when trading ultra-longs in comparison to the underlying index. Did you find any logical errors there?
Re: sold some FAS puts
david, yes, that can work in a trending environment. The 2x natural gas ETFs are working as a pair trade here in Canada, but you know what is happening with natural gas. However, all others are losing. If you get the direction right, yes you can benefit from compounding. The thing is the odds.
The bigger issue is that the vast majority of the money disappears (actually, it does go to someone :-)). FAS/FAZ's loss stand today at $4.724B out of the initial $6.4B valuation. http://nexalogic.com/fasfazloss-o-meter.html
Those are very, very bad odds. If you bet on the direction right, it can work, but some (most?) games in a casino give better odds.
Also, I looked at SPY-SDS-SDS intraday today and there is an intraday loss on the pair trade (http://nexalogic.com/spyssosds.jpg). FAS/FAZ are nearly impossible to track on an intra-day basis (very clever of them!).
Bull Hunter
Every time I see that photo, I'm left wishing I had an audio link to what's happening.
What are the odds of embedding audio/voice links (when appropriate) in photos?
5-ways to scam the new bailout:
5-ways to scam the new bailout:
http://www.businessinsider.com/5-ways-to-scam-the-...
I have launched a 3.5X pair of ETFs. Although they are doing quite well, I should also apply for a bailout and get some leverage!
Re: pause-rewind-pause
2nd
With retailing stocks up 30%
Leisure/accommodation up 35
And the homebuilders up 40%, the market is priced, amazingly, for a revival that is led by the consumer
Up very good so far and this time not going to give back anything
It is possible that I may be late to the party. I still feel the downside risks are too high to be involved.
There are buyers and sellers at every moment, each with (nearly) opposite motivations or perceptions
and to short REITs or financials is a Scary business these days.
google maps
I'm sure everyone else is way ahead of me on this, but I've just discovered it. Going back in time to places from your past via Street View is a rush. My childhood home in a Pittsburgh township has been razed, gone. The high school across the brick road, however, is still there and barely changed after 50 years. Down cement steps, behind steel doors is undoubtedly still the pool where a lifeguard saved me from drifting (strangely unconcerned) forever into the deep end (I was either 5 or 6 years old at the time, and had somehow ended up wandering from the beginner's group to the one next to it). The alleys are still there, where it once took all of 5 seconds for someone in the midst of kiddie battle to shred the paper flag I spent an hour putting together (LOL).
Ah, well. Vacation time at home.
Re: Something to keep an eye on
Seamus
S&P’s have rallied 26%, the CRB is up 15%. It’s like a Cubs hitter that smacks a lot of home runs in Wrigley Field b/c the wind is always blowing out but can’t hit one on the road without the help of the wind. The stats look good but it’s not real.
a relative send me this email from
Schaumburg
Re: planning Cara Bahamas 2010 conference
Re: Web conferencing for Cara Bahamas 2010 Conference, this is definitely a go. I first need to organize the expert who will make it happen. But we will make it happen.
Re: No Selling conviction today
Look at the volume on the Cara 100 when I post tomorrow. There were almost none that exceeded the average daily volume. Trading today was unusually quiet, which means that HB&B algo programs were shut down, since they do maybe 40% of all trading these days.
Re: HB&B
Lori, that is too funny.
btw, you are quite photogenic as the community will see if you permit us to show them from the conference. I know you had a blast.
Re: 7 for 10
kaimu, another great blog. You are outstanding! Earlier today I decided to give you your own page here because when pressed for time I would go there. Thank you for everything. I just need to get Jeff to work it out.
Re: sold some FAS puts
SiO2, I don't think the total loss in FAS/FAZ is very representative of what will happen in the future. The financials took a huge hit in January/February, and hence FAS lost A LOT. If financials stabilize or even trend up slowly from now on, then FAS can in fact increase over time. FAZ will obviously be experiencing a HUGE decline each year (I would say falling at least 90% for the year) regardless of the market action.
Re: 7 for 10
Kaimu -
Tata Industries is what happens when your gov't controls the money flows of big national industry through a decidedly socialist agenda: Large capitalistic endeavors consolidate into one big monopoly for the people. That's why J.J. Irani, the retired President and long time Director of Tata, was conferred honorary knighthood by Elizabeth II, Queen of England, in '97, for his work in advancing Indian diplomacy with the Anglo Saxons. Imagine Elizabeth knighting an American CEO for cultural achievement?!
Tata is big. Real big. Few can fathom just how big.
Cheers.
Re: 7 for 10
Dr. Strangelove, I am beginning to organize a closed-end fund for India companies. Tata will certainly be there as will several others in the Cara 100.
Ugh
Did a number of screens for deep value (and various technical indicators) on Thursday night last week and came up with eight of interest for my fun account. Rejected one of them on gut-feeling, and sprinkled some cash into the other 7 at the open, Friday. 6 of the seven are flat since entry. One, GU, went crazy, mid-day on Friday:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GU&ta=0&p=d
The rejected one?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=say&ta=0&p=d
Ugh :(
Re: 7 for 10
Thanks Bill, you take a pretty good photograph yourself - btw permission granted to post mine! You also have my permission to put up the one I sent of you, Michael and Geoff if you wish - I did have a total blast, looking forward to next years event already. Although I don't truly see how it could possibly be improved somehow I know you and your team will make every effort.
Re: 7 for 10
Just information
Tata is not a Hindu or Muslim or Buddha. He is a the present-day Parsis descend from a group of Iranian Zoroastrians who emigrated to Western India over 1,000 years ago. The long presence in the region distinguishes the Parsis from the Iranis, who are more recent arrivals, and who represent the smaller of the two Indian-Zoroastrian communities
They left or leaving Iran because of religious prosecution
FAZ FAS today
my Ameritrade streamer shows:
FAZ up 5.38% today
FAS down 6.39% today
1% difference, hmmmmm
Bear E
tao
Has anyone got or by any chance recall a book titled The Tao of the Dow?
Re: 7 for 10
Bill -
There is perhaps no other company in the world that can match the human resources available to Tata. But its profit motive is easily impaired by gov't meddling.
Property rights, for instance, are not strong in India and so ownership is viewed as dubious. Can be a tricky wicket but growth potential is there.
Cheers.
MOS
TOF- What's your reasoning behind shorting MOS? I have a med. sized position in SQM. TIA
Cara 2010 Conference
By the end of April, we will issue a Hotel code number to quote. Please do not make enquiries or reservtions before then. At this point all I am trying to do is tie down the dates.
Re: 7 for 10
ALOHA !!
I appreciate that Bill ... Thanks and Mahalo!
I will publish my entire PPT slides(three slides and I only had time for one)and text from the presentation at the CTAB 2009, since I owe that to the participants for trying to give a one hour presentation in less than 30 minutes! I think I realized that about five minutes in! Oopps ... I last spoke publicly 38 years ago on THE VIETNAM WAR DOMINO THEORY, so my timing was way off ... HA!! Hummmmm??? I guess I will have to consult with the "timing experts" Vad and Pascal!
I have to hand Pascal the award for BEST PPT slides ... That one slide where he showed what happens when government comes into the markets was outstanding! The "toxic radiation symbol"! VERY FUNNY!! What a total set-up I was not expecting that one ... He's ready for TED!
Thanks Bill ...
JRD Tata Biography
http://www.rediff.com/money/2004/aug/19tata.htm
Re: Ugh
"Did a number of screens for deep value (and various technical indicators) on Thursday night last week and came up with eight of interest for my fun account."
SGIC would've been a nice home run...
What I heard is some people
What I heard is some people are between 3 to 4 months late on their mortgage but the lenders have not yet filed an Notice of Default (NOD). Usually banks file after the first month late ,but it is a usual trend where banks are not filing the NOD to get the foreclosure process started. This is obvious that they don't want to show these bad assets on their books.
So near term is better for FAS
deux chaveau mon ami?
Kaimu, Ever drive a Citroen 2 cylinder?
They were so cool...they sound like a sewing machine and lean going around corners with a canvas roll top that allowed the French farmer to stick their pitchfork out the top. Officially the Citroën 2CV (French: deux chevaux vapeur, "two steam horses" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citroen_2CV
I nearly bought one but went for the D Super instead...just loved those hydraulics. Sold mine to a friend on Bastille Day. Stainless
Re: MOS
hey mark - i actually closed out of my position at the beginning of the day...i'm only sticking to day/couple day trades right now, although i did begin a starter position in FRX that i hope to hold for a longer period.
I believe MOS actually might have some upside room long term...just thought it was due for a little pullback given that the market looked toppy and so too did commodities/etc.
Re: MOS
TOF- Thanks, Man. More often than not when you post, things look the same to me. MOS EPS Q1 went from 1.13 to .24 lately. Yes, they missed bad last quarter but who didn't. I actually hope for a miss as an buy opportunity. SQM, I believe, is a more balanced play. More diverse mineral profile and long term play (for others) in Lithium.
Re: 7 for 10 - wow
Interesting. I had no idea Tata was Parsi. I knew a Parsi in grad school, who told me there are only 350,000 now in total.
Australia cuts rates to 3%
http://tinyurl.com/dnzmm7
Re: MOS
MOS seems to be in a good spot long term. I just don't know enough about the whole potash industry to justify this for sure. What exactly does SQM do? How does their balance sheet look? For now I'm only sticking with companies that have great balance sheets if I want to hold for a longer term than a couple of days. I really like FRX and BA in this regard.
Re: 7 for 10 - wow
The Parsi ancestors were ancient Persian fire temple worshipers. They ghettoized themselves much like Eastern European Jews to preserve their customs and culture. Their business accumen approches early 20th century Western money thought. They are riveled only by a few Chinese sects.
It has always amazed me how different cultures try to adapt to the money thought of a prevailing dominate civilization. Egyptians tried with some success to adapt to the Greco/Roman coin system circa 300BC through 400AD. Still they beat the coins into clumps of metal and exchanged them as weighted wares.
Today, Russians pretend to understand Western money and banking. They can function with an income statement but balance sheet concepts leave them shaking their heads.
Just an observation from from an American Slavophile that grins at the Russian 'children'.
Re: deux chaveau mon ami?
RE:>hey were so cool...they sound like a sewing machine and lean going around corners
I saw one turning hard into a corner on the weekend. Thought it was going to fall over - shoddy suspension or some such thing.
Anyone traveling to Paris can hire a duck for touring the city with.
Re: Not coming up with any reasons to sell- anyone else?
RE:>Les- As you know, it's not necessary to trade every day.If there's no crowd at the craps table, or no probability distributions at the baccarat tables that look good, I just keep walking.
haha IB's told me to take my chips and keep walking. I've been certified a daytrader!
only got 10 in the account. Fortunately they can send a "get out of jail" card which I sign, pledging to be a good boy from now on.
Still, 25 sounds like a good savings target for the near future. Double the capital would help on days like yesterday when I pulled the chips off the table 5 minutes from closing with too little green to show for it (damn that last minute rise!).
love this market, love uncle sam, loved my old broker. As we used to say in the army - identify, adapt and overcome! Getting plenty of practice here.
Think I'll look to seed my account with some puts on PM's as someone else was suggesting. Once the tables turn on this rally I would guess that a bounce in PM's can be anticipated.
Any other suggestions that keeps me out of harms way with my broker for the moment?
Will have to learn how to short as well.
Les.
Fox Business News video has
Fox Business News video has jumped on the William Black bandwagon. Questioning whether Geithner participating in massive fraud.
This growing into something?
Watch your FAS(s) today...
Screwed the Pooch. Again?
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/04/currency-events...
GLD vs SPY
CP, you might find this interesting:
Was staring at GLD and SPY daily charts and saw something curious. I downloaded the daily closing prices going back to Dec. 1, 2008 and calculated correlations
SPY vs GLD -0.59
SPY vs GLD (9 day lag) -0.78
Curious. Didn't dig too much deeper into it.
Ron Sen in fine form...
Screwed the pooch? That's not the winner.
Read this jewel at Ron's site: "It's 'The Godfather' all over again, "one lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than ten men with guns."
Don't ever forget it either.
All these chumps in Washington and Wall Street? Yep...lawyers, the common denominator is a zero.
Re: 7 for 10
"Unless you are TATA ... Will those cars ever make it to the USA or will the unions prohibit them? According to the TATA website they only exported 1,800 vehicles in March 2009."
The EPA requirements may prohibit them as they now are. No Airbags — not sure about emissions which may be acceptable.
GM and Segway unveil new two-wheeled urban vehicle
This is interesting, but will they be allowed without an airbag. I hate all these overly protective, for-our-own-good laws. This is totally voiding the natural selection process and giving us unlimited future Congressional material.
http://tiny.cc/qHNaU
Sir John Templeton
American cousin of my dad, CEO knighted for his philanthropic endeavors by the Queen.