[6:55am ET] The script has been written: US Treasury Secretary Geithner goes to China where he coincidentally happens to hear that the Purchasing Managers Index has recorded its third straight month of bullish readings. Geithner must be happy; the monkey’s off the US back. Ergo, commodity prices soaring and the world’s stock markets breaking out to new high ground.
China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) in May recorded its third straight month above the mark of 50 that separates expansion from contraction, fuelling optimism that the worst of the global downturn may be over.
"Three consecutive months of readings above 50 really shows that Chinese stimulatory policy is gaining traction. It looks like an economic recovery is well underway in China, possibly leading to a sustained rally and re-rating of commodity prices and associated stocks," says one broker today.
We opined a week ago that a break-out of the trading range for equity markets was likely within sixty days. Of course, we believed that, while prices were clearly lifting, the action would be bearish.
Aussie technical analyst Colin Twiggs is looking at upside break-outs for the NASDAQ 100, Canada, Japan, Hong Kong, and India, although he says to be wary of a Bull trap in the S&P 500, DJIA, UK, and Europe.
A V-shaped market bottom remains unlikely. The best we can hope for is a W-shaped bottom; while a WWW-shaped bottom, similar to the 1970s, remains equally likely. The wild-card is inflation. If the Fed and other central banks monetize government debt by buying treasury bonds they will start a mad scramble for real assets. Whether they be stocks, commodities or real estate — a high risk investment is better than a certain loss.
So, markets are heating up.
At 6:48am ET, the spot market prices for precious metals are: gold (986.55 +3.88 +0.39%); palladium (236 +2 +0.85%); platinum (1222 +17 +1.41%); and silver (15.85 +0.02 + 0.13%).
Is this bullish move the real thing or merely follow-through from a weekend where less informed traders were warming to the Friday action in gold and final 30 minutes trades in the broad US equity market?
We should not have long to find out.
Comments
228 missing in Air France jet over Atlantic
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,523701,00.html...
Week in Review
Bill,
Excellent missive. By recapping your accomplishments - you inspire us. In today's world - watching someone succeed breeds confidence. Reading your blog, looking at performance, seeing your forecasts come true show us that although we play a "rigged" game - we can have an impact. Thanks for that.
Since today marks the end of American Manufacturing via GM BK - and the ownership stake all of us now have @ 60% - perhaps you could show a chart of all the Government owned entities that still trade. This seems important due to the large number of government ownership in companies. Perhaps the AMEX could begin an ETF with a basket of these stocks...
sector rotations
Bill your comment about sector rotation and how things are proceeding down their usual track is very helpful context. Some of us (like me) have not been able to watch so many bull and bear cycles the way you have, and so it's harder for us to see the forest because of all the trees in the way.
And placing where we are in the cycle in terms of risk is also quite useful as well. Clearly, if we're getting to the sector at the end of the line, that means we're at a risky place.
Bill, do these cycles sometimes re-cycle? What I mean is, have you seen the market go through it's "gold phase" and then cycle back around to financials leading another uptrend? Another way of asking this same question is, if we saw a rotation into tech or financials, would that be a "tell" for a new bull phase up?
Re: 228 missing in Air France jet over Atlantic
starting to develop a name for itself, the A330. Remember a Qantas A330 last year that, due to a software fault, dived 200 metres at a high rate of decent, before pilots regained control. Knocked a lot of passengers about (who should have been wearing seat belts). Hope Airbus aren't making a faulty plane.
My thoughts go to everyone concerned. Coming home from a holiday or party in Rio - to die in absolute terror with 2 minutes notice on a modern aircraft - it's not right.
Puts the stupidity of Wall St. shenanigans into perspective.
Probaby GATA's most on message and comprehensive review
I think this is an interview that should almost be compulsory reading for every member of society.
http://www.thedailybell.com/bellPage.asp?nid=399&fl=
Also I'd like to second the comments above re the WIR. They are getting more and more informative Bill. There's more true value in your Week in Review than any educational service offers. It's like my weekly class. So thankyou.
Finally, I also found the brief on sector rotation incredibly informative and would love to hear more in the future if and when the opportunity presents.
All the best
Ad
Re: sector rotations
davefairtex, that's an excellent question.
Think of an ocean tide, and the wave on it, and the several smaller waves on the bigger ones. In markets, as price motion moves across time, and there are trend reversals, there are also smaller cases to study. For instance the Monthly price series data represents the ebb and flow of the tide; the Weekly data the waves and the Daily data the wavelets let call them. The Weekly data best shows the trend reversal, which occurs with the usual sector rotation in most cases. But the smaller case to watch is how many times there might be this rotation in more day to day fighting between Bulls and Bears. There is give and take, where the sectors could rotate several times before the significant reversal.
In the summer of 2002 through the spring of 2003, there was an extended long-term cycle bottom, causing the Weekly to go bullish-bearish-bullish-bearish-and (lastly) bullish. During that time, there were a number of high-risk Buys that turned out to be Bull traps. The same could happen in this long-term cycle bottom process.
After gold has its run, then revert your focus to the regulated and financial sector (banks, near-banks, REITs, insurance, etc) to see if they are cycling back to another Bull run. If so, you need to stay aboard the train, but inch yourself closer to the exit. At some point, though, the markets stabilize and there is a new Bull.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning from the Amish country.
Upgrades:
KSS - to Overweight @ Thomas Weisel
WFMI - to Outperform @ RBC
Nigh time
from the WIR:
"..the biggest gains are made at the most uncomfortable days and hours (i.e., highest market risk) when prices are spiking.."
Vinod- It's like being a fireman. You 'earn' your salary in short spurts of time. Like the opening numbers.
Nymex NGas
UNG up 3%, HNU.to up 6%
Re: Nigh time
Yes 2nd, if I had the right amount and account I would have already traded TNA today. Appreciated even further in the last couple of hours from when I first logged on.
soon.
A long abscense
Wow! After a few years Commander Twiggs returns to the WIR!
It's been a while since we've had any trekking with the Commander.
We used to have a lot of fun with that Bill!
Really great WIR this week.
Be careful kids, they are sure fanning the flames this AM. Remember Friday?
They Cramered everyone until the last few minutes and then they dropped bait in the water and started chumming in the feeding frenzy.
Be careful you don't get hooked...
Elliot Wave theory analyst suggest top is here and turn coming.
Short Term Forecast Update
The USD is in wave b down, currently in wave 5 of (C). We should see further downside before a strong rally in wave c up. Crude is in wave b up, currently in wave 5 of (C). Crude is an excellent example of a bear market correction, since we would want to see at least 3 waves (an abc) complete from the peak. If you are not familiar with Elliott Wave, you can examine the completed decline on any chart that has had a parabolic advance in a so called bubble. The decline completes as 3 waves, with wave b up, as the bear market rally. This rally also coincides with the other markets.
The charts are aligning for a reversal similar to last July before the commodities and markets crashed. Its deja vu before history repeats itself. We still need to see further upside for the DOW, but the next decline should take out the March lows. We still need to see the USD and Euro (not shown) hit their targets before the reversal. The metals still have further upside as well, but we should see a strong correction similar to the one last year, before the bull advance resumes. Many of our charts illustrate triangles or ending diagonals patterns, which indicates a top is near and we could see a reversal as early as next week. The reversal could extend a bit longer, so keep an eye on the USD, when it hits the target and bounces above the top trendline, we expect all of the markets to roll over at the same time
Since the decline in the markets, we have been too busy to distribute the free newsletters, but I wanted to get this one out, so that you would be aware of the current market condition. Be careful, it is a bear market rally and its close to completing.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/stins...
Does Elliot Wave hold water as an analytical technique?
Re: Nigh time
2nd
Look at FXP... might go under 10.
Short-Term sentiment not overly strong
Perhaps a day or two is needed to get j6p back into the game? Doesn't suggest the feeding frenzy is here yet.
http://www.sentimentrader.com/
Re: A long absence/A tall absinthe
Craig- LOL. The latter would be associated with Commander Cody, I mean Commander Cramer.
Whipsaw action in UNG/Off @ 15.06, back in @ 14.90
...
Geithner Laughed At In China
I did not know he was also a comedian...
"Chinese assets are very safe," Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.
His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting scepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country accumulating a vast stockpile of foreign reserves instead of spending the money to raise living standards at home.
http://tinyurl.com/mdq7fp
Plenty of pre-market bets on FAZ
4m shares and counting. That's 4m shares that get burned today. I would stay away for now.
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
fireworks- They were probably laughing at the translation:
"You can take all the tea in China Put it in a T-bond for me Sail right around on the seven oceans Drop it straight into the deep blue sea"
Cara 100 Update
FSLR - Price Target Raised from $175 to $200 @ Credit Suisse. Outperform
JNPR - Downgraded to Hold @ AmTech Research
---------------
2nd,
Thanks for the memories:
http://tinyurl.com/mfdbuh
Morning Folks
I haven't been on a plane in 15 years...Not so much because flying is dangerous, but because there's nowhere I really want to go. I am a vigorous hermit. It's interesting though, there had been until now some disagreement about whether the weather could bring down a plane. Now I guess we know. I know so many people who've been whacked out in planes...My old next door neighbor Mr. Montgomery, hit wires in Texas. A friends dad, Mr. Waldman, took out a gas station on Block Island and killed like 5 people.
Woops, market opening..
Alcoa looking good.
General Moly in play
The Fed and LT Bonds
CP & Milesquare,
"If the FED loaned out $2 trillion over the past few months, from where did they obtain this money?
From a little mouse perhaps?"
Dollars created and moved around, but not accessed by the economy— do not inflate. (but have great potential).
and from John Bogle:
"I have been saying for more years than I care to count not to forget bonds.I have been saying for more years than I care to count not to forget bonds."
-----------------
John Hussman this morning points to Paul Krugman's comments on the velocity of money as the reason LT Treasuries' rates have been held relatively stable in spite of ME. IMO, as long as US consumers are afraid to borrow it may remain so. Should people succumb to the "all is well" hype, inflation will become a rocket ride.
I see the lack of jobs as the key issue here.
http://tinyurl.com/n782r9
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
The Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasuries on behalf of central banks and institutions from China to Norway rose by $68.8 billion, or 3.3 percent, in May, the third most on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Treasury said bidding from foreigners was above average at its $101 billion of note auctions last week.
http://tinyurl.com/l2k89g
Re: 228 missing in Air France jet over Atlantic
I have a friend who will be opting for computer surgery on his prostate this month.
Computers:
When they work as planned are great! But at times...
Suspect Existence of U.S. Gold Reserves
It appears further controversy has surfaced about the true existence of U.S. gold reserves...
Ladies and gentlemen, the foregoing data and discussion with the USGS individual is proof that the United States of America [or criminal elements within its Treasury and/or The Federal Reserve] “HAS” surreptitiously exported physical gold - and continues to do so. It is confirmed. The exports are likely coin melt [or gold compound, if you prefer] from the great gold confiscation back in 1933; or alternatively, this terminology is being used to disguise physical repatriation of foreign gold bullion formerly on deposit with the N.Y. Federal Reserve. Such repatriations are recorded as “exports” in U.S. Trade data. Public acknowledgement of same would scream like a siren call that the global financial community has totally lost faith in American financial stewardship – hence the need to do so on the sly.
This is being done in a vain/desperate/losing battle to satiate “off the charts” global demand for physical gold bullion arising from the profligacy of the American Empire’s two previous Administrations and to prop up the failing U.S. Dollar.
Over the course of 2007 / 2008 – more than 5,000 metric tonnes of “Gold Compounds” have been exported from the United States of America representing more than 62 % of reported sovereign U.S. gold reserves or about 24 times annual U.S. mine production.
http://tinyurl.com/noy48g
Re: Cara 100 Update
BH- Likewise.
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
"I did not know he was also a comedian..."
Come to think of it, he does do a good Jack Benny blank look quite often.
"I'm thinking, I'm thinking."
Gold and Minors.....
..........really get whipped around this morning, best to just sit back and observe imo.
Cisco to Replace GM; Travelers to Replace Citigroup in DJIA
So says the report on cnbc.
Re: Cisco to Replace GM; Travelers to Replace Citigroup in DJIA
I like this a lot. Cisco is a Cara 100. I'll have to study Travelers.
HNU.to opened Friday at $USD 6.36/6.11, off @ 6.78
..
Psycho market
"As GM goes, so goes the nation."
GM files for BK and the market rally's like a drunken monkey.
Amazing.
UNG: In premkt at 14.94 out at 15.41, looking to reload if it comes to me.
Also long BRY @18.89 a few days back.
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
Geithner laughed at in China?
by who?
by the chinese who are the biggest buyers of the very debt they now seem
to be laughing about?
who is really the funny one here?
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
Good question Dr., I wonder the same. Whatever China is going to unfold is not happening in the next one year or two but rather next 20/30 years. For now, they will play along driving a hard bargain & seeking more transfer of real assets/power/tech from USA using their bargaining chip as lender.
AAPL
made some very nice gains buying calls at 130 last week and selling them now:) good trade in a while....
UNG- off at 15.33
...opened Friday at 15.11/14.71 +/- a little trading around...
still bullish
Dollar vs Bonds
What effect will a dollar bounce have on the bond market? Trying to decide to take profits on TBT. I am assuming a stronger dollar may lower yields. I am not familular with this relationship. Anyone's 2 cents would be great.
Great WIR Bill. I was debating taking chips off the table and did in CEF, AUY, KGC, GG, and SLW. Feels good. I find myself falling in love with these stocks sometimes.
TIA
Re: Cisco to Replace GM; Travelers to Replace Citigroup in DJIA
So what does this do to the DOW average? On opening this morning...is that why the average is up with the addition of two stronger companies? Interesting that no one has mentioned this.
Re: Psycho market
Gotta take profits...out of BRY @20.80.
I'll take my 8%.
FAZ/SRS/EEV looking attractive here
or am i under the influence of market alcohol?
GDX
GDX - Today's benchmark is $44.15, let's see if she can clear the hurdle and stay in the race... Because anything else would just be wrong.
PXP
Last 1/3 off @ 30.77 (+63%). Just moved to much in the last 3 days.
Still holding UNG, CHK, HK, DVN in this play.
trying a little TZA @ 21.93
...
Re: FAZ/SRS/EEV looking attractive here
I dunno, maybe wait until the SPX rally plays itself out?
Before I start shorting one of these days I like to see that magical upward sloping curve level out, preferably drop down, retest, and fail. :)
OCLS @ 3.12
...
Re: Cisco to Replace GM; Travelers to Replace Citigroup in DJIA
RUATR8R - I don't think changes have been implemented yet, but stay tuned. It's possible the equity chosen will get a boost, and the three or four in contention are probably getting their boost now. So it's likely to be a buy the rumor, sell on the news event?
IMO, the subject is rather trivial in the scheme of things considering the second largest market sell off in history has just occurred.
Re: Suspect Existence of U.S. Gold Reserves
John Embry pointed out months ago that coin melt was being sold in Dubai (and, by extension on the LBMA). I can't find the quote exactly, but since he's been ridiculed for so long on his position I thought it worth reviewing his comments since the start of the year(includes many topics which have broken out only recently in the press):
http://www.sprott.com/main3.aspx?id=55
As for my gold investment, I reported that GBN.V was likely to see some appreciation in the coming weeks. It took much longer than expected, but we have a ~50% appreciation since reporting on it several weeks ago.(from the bottom, its 300%) Its possible they may have financing in hand for their gold project. Provincial assent was given for the project dealing the NGO political hacks in the Dept. Of Fisheries And Oceans a coprophagic breakfast on a styrofoam tray nicely wrapped under cellophane. They had attempted to vandalize the project by calling the company's licensed tailings pond a fish habitat. Gains are partially due to declines in the $US vs. $CDN. Currency risk is a limiting factor in the gold juniors in Canada, unless you can prove indexing to the gold price.
A number of points of view are taken in considering inflation/deflation adjusted gold charts(which I first posted last week here):
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail...
I won't inundate the board with references to downtrodden gold juniors, but those mentioned in previous weeks are doing well. The exception is CMM.V, which stubbed its toe on the last year's earnings, and got sold off. CRJ.TO and SGR.TO advancing smartly. It might be an idea to cut CMM.V add WDO.TO here to the list.
GG is down 2.7%?
Is that a tell, or a pullback to buy?
Re: GG is down 2.7%?
AUY and SLW are in the red too...
Re: GG is down 2.7%?
2nd- GG offering 750M in secured senior notes...
Re: GG is down 2.7%?
yeah, but gold is a little soft today so they are all pulling back. I added GSS, but I have been known to be a greater fool.
IEF and SHY
wow, look at that, dropping off the cliff.
Re: GG is down 2.7%?
how is anyone surprised by the action in the gold miners?
do you really think GG is down because of the recent offering?
as we have seen on these extended advances, when gold eases off even slightly, down only 3 dollars from the close of friday, the shares dump.
i wont even tell you how much the shares in canadian $$ are underperforming the US.
Gold, GDX, etc.
I'm no TA expert, but the way I read Friday's action and early Monday action is that buyers were receiving shares from an organized distribution campaign of long-term holders. Look at the volume relative to price movement ... if things were so "bullish", more upside movement should have been achieved in relation to the number of shares traded.
I've read volume described as an accelerator for a car ... if you see the gas being stepped on (high volume), you want to see corresponding price movement. The lack of price movement in the face of high volume means the stock is "going up a steep hill" ie. professional sellers (market makers, HB&B, etc.) are happy to distribute to buyers at that level.
Remember, they get to see the order flow and know when a good time to get in (and out) exists ... we've got to use the few clues we can find!
I sold out of all GLD and SLV and miners on Friday. I'm holding my Uraniums. Time will tell if I was wrong :-)
Re: GG is down 2.7%?
If the market sells off due to dollar strength gold should follow, right? Somebody is providing a show for gold bugs today, and it looks like the FED down there on center stage.
Looking on the bright side, the $US is down as well... So what does that tell you (I think it means we're witnessing intervention)?
Re: Cisco to Replace GM; Travelers to Replace Citigroup in DJIA
U.S Goverment should be added to DJIA
Did well in Yamana
The market is my friend. Going jogging now.
Re: Finally, An Aquistion In The Gold Juniors
Redback Buys Moto
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAF...
Commodities and Livestock
During a recent tear by the commodities complex, livestock has seriously underperformed.
Could it be that, behind all of this talk of "Green Shoots," everyday folks are saving on budgets and eating less meat? Doesn't seem very "bullish" too me. ;-)
Taking FAZ/SRS/TZA out to lunch: 4.35/17.66/21.93
...
Re: Cisco to Replace GM; Travelers to Replace Citigroup in DJIA
vinod "U.S Goverment should be added to DJIA"
The radical $US bugs would go "nuts" over that! ;)
OCLS- out @ 3.15
Sorry, Mark. Basis was 3.96. No regrets.
Re: Gold, GDX, etc.
I agree with the distribution thesis. Friday at least seemed like that.
Re: dr cosa's theory about gold shares taking a beating whenever gold fades a bit during these long advances, I've seen exactly the same thing as well. GG was particularly weak today, but they all are not doing well - and on some pretty high volume. I sold off the last of my UXG. I tried a day trade of GG but bailed out just in time.
EDIT: actually GG has seen half a day's normal volume in this first 90 minutes. KGC has seen an entire day's volume. I guess that's what happens when your RSI gets up around 90 and things don't go just perfectly. :)
Silver
They're really using silver as the lever, down 2X% as gold.
Re: Commodities and Livestock
"Could it be that, behind all of this talk of "Green Shoots," everyday folks are saving on budgets and eating less meat?Could it be that, behind all of this talk of "Green Shoots," everyday folks are saving on budgets and eating less meat?"
Last week or so, Hormel (makers of SPAM) reported they were benefiting from people eating cheaper at home.
Trapped in by SRS
I am sitting with a losing bundle on this one. Ignoring most advice I had committed a significant part of my portfolio into this and have held it all the way down to about 50% of its value now. I've learnt my lesson here - no position more than 10% of portfolio and no holding these ultras overnight. Any advise on what to do with the losing position right now: sell or wait for better day to sell?
TBT
TBT Is really flying today, I don't remember ever observing such a fast move. Did someone say China is buying, or was that selling treasuries? Could it be they are repositioning to the short term paper and it's being reported as buying?
Speaking of flying, Barrack and Michelle are flying into NY for dinner?
Boy that Kim-Jong-Il has really been pushing some buttons lately, he's already got another rocket on the launchpad...?
Rotation to financials?
Comments/insight appreciated Bill's WIR on rotation to financials if this is a continuing bull phase...watching GS this AM and now positive. quickly checked the RSI app, i see a lot of green. Hesitant to jump into the deep end.
most recent trade - AEM 5/21 64.37 out 6/1 @ 68.30, 100% cash.
Re: Commodities and Livestock
Solent Green is eating into livestock market share.
Re: Trapped in by SRS
SPX has resistance in area of 945. If that stops the advance, a reversal is likely and your SRS should recover. If 945 gets surpassed then an advance over 1000 is likely and you will get killed even more.
Re: Commodities and Livestock
Dr. Strangeglove,
Maybe WE are the "Green Shoots!"
this one is good
google "Geithner Urges Combined U.S.-China Efforts to Boost Economies" & read the wsj report.
Timmy is saying China should buy US goods and China is saying US should buy their goods :):)
"For China, he said, that means recognizing that it can't pull itself out of the slowdown by exporting even more goods to U.S. households, which are digging themselves out of debt. "The purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past," he said. By contrast, Mr. Geithner argued, China needs to look for ways to unlock the spending power of its own consumers. "Strengthening domestic demand will strengthen China's ability to weather future fluctuations in global supply and demand," he said."
Re: OCLS- out @ 3.15
2nd- Just thinking that most of the day traders are out of this one now. We might see some more selling pressure from LT holders, but I'm guessing not.
KRE @ 20.57
...
Marc Faber test failed
As Marc turned short term bearish in his last newsletter (released yesterday), I was wondering how much following he has and how much traction his calls have in the markets. It looks like next to none judging from the opening salvo.
In retrospect, the close on Friday can be explained by traders with inside info on the economic numbers released on Monday.
Looks like SP500 is breaking from the trading range, right?
Re: Trapped in by SRS/ One day at a time
I would immediately mark your position to market, then consider what you would now do if you were completely in cash.
Psychologically, it's a difficult mental maneuver. But it's possible. At some point, I'm taking a paper loss in almost all my positions- I try to mentally step outside each trade and view it objectively. Obviously I think odds are SRS moves up between now and the close, or I wouldn't be in it. You can then trade your way back one day at a time.
Re: TBT
CP- I'm still holding this side off TOG. I suspect a long, hot, uncomfortable summer for Treasuries.
Re: Trapped in by SRS
Ouch Joe, maybe you can make it up on a 3x ETF? Kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place because the only clear trend is up while everyone's calling for down.
Maybe jump out and take a breather until the trend begins to go your way?
Re: OCLS- out @ 3.15
Mark- I would be looking to re-enter above 4. In any case, I am now pleasantly distracted with far better trades. You mentioned earnings on the 11th. I'll be looking for an entry around that time.
$wtic & OIH
they are up almost 100% from december lows. I shud hv replaced gold with black gold in my trades, there seem to be a bias to suppress gold price & inflate black gold price by vested interests....
Re: TBT
Mark - If I might suggest another adjective to the list it would be sticky... long, hot, sticky, uncomfortable.. ;)
Re: Marc Faber test failed
I don't know, I kinda liked his call for a Sugar breakout.
Re: Trapped in by SRS
Depends on your tax situation.
In the US, I have often sold losers, waited 31 days — then bought back at lower prices and able to write off tax loss.
The catch with SRS or any inverse ETF is the volatility. The SKF yo-yo got me a year ago and, since it was in a tax deferred account, I simply dumped and wrote it off to experience. Since then I have seen many warn about holding too long on these.
I am not basically a day trader, so others may have better advice.
Good luck and best wishes.
Re: Long hot summer? Watts 1965, Detroit 1967, Chicago 1968
2009- It won't be race, it'll be (un)employment.
Re: AAPL
Shiva, you could probably save yourself some time by using me as a contrary indicator. I wrote some July puts, two, on AAPL last week. They are under water, but I do have until July.
NGas taking a breather
UNG <15/HNU.to <7 might make nice intraday trades.
Re: Trapped in by SRS/ Reversal Tuesday?
Just another consideration. Something like 55% odds for counter-trend movements on Tuesdays.
Re: Trapped in by SRS
The trend right now is up and its tough to be bearish, but in late Feb and early March the trend was down and tough to be bullish. So maybe you set a sell stop where you can no longer stand any more loss, or hang tough and hope maybe it'll reverse (my gut says we are overdue for a correction)? Or buy a few calls on some REITs to offset any further declines? Regrets, that is a pretty tough decision...good luck with it. (FD: I am also long a little SRS, doubt that makes you feel any better, though).
GDX
GDX is back in the saddle ready to hit the trail, looks like the intervention is losing steam? Gold bugs revenge is hot to trot, all aboard!
Re: Trapped in by SRS/ Reversal Tuesday?
Comment Category ...Shoulda / Coulda/ Woulda
SRS, SDS, are so short term volatile & unpredictable ..... & are in a 3 month downtrend..... might be useful to use long straddles and long strangles if you must get involved with them.
btw...."unpredictable" ? isn't that what stocks are about? careful out there gentlemen & ladies........
Re: OCLS @ 3.12/ Now @ 3.50
Mark- Looks like you made the right call, my man.
Re: 228 missing in Air France jet over Atlantic
Reuters: Chairman of German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp's Brazil unit CSA was on board crashed airliner.
Gold
I've been looking at the multi-year chart for gold and it looks to me like a massive inverted head & shoulders pattern, which would suggest much higher prices to come over the medium term. I know there's a fair bit of consensus here for higher gold prices, but wondered if others thought there was any accuracy or significance to that chart interpretation.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD
Re: Trapped in by SRS
I got stopped out at 18 today myself :( ...lost some.
Re: OCLS @ 3.12/ Now @ 3.50
2nd
I have feeling that we may hit 9000 this week. I have nothing right now.
i am just clueless
"The market will create doubts about yourself and your skills and will frustrate you in every way imaginable"
I do think there is a chance for a hyperinflationary depression
This is my first post and I want to thank Bill for everything I have read and learned off of his blog. Thanks Bill! It actually motivated me to start my own blog and hope to become a regular contributor here and share my thoughts with others.
Re: Trapped in by SRS
not involved - not a recommendation - just in favour of education oneself...
http://mail.live.com/default.aspx?&ip=10.6.0.247&d...
Re: Trapped in by SRS
I have some SRS (small position) and slightly underwater. The CRE should crash but markets don't comply. This reminds me the July 2007 action when all my short banking and RE blew up by the melt up, to later vindicate (when it was too late and I had realized loss). So, it's either July 2007-like head fake or 2003-like recovery-by-inflation. Unfortunately I don't know which and admitting that 2003-like melt up is a large possibility. All indices broke up from the consolidation/triangle formations.
Re: Trapped in by SRS/ Reversal Tuesday?
Thanks 2nd. I am still getting out of the mindset that "this must happen" as opposed to just trading prices. I had forgotten about the counter-trend tuesday phenomenon. Are people buying? I am sorely tempted to "make up" lost money by buying $17 June calls.
Re: Trapped in by SRS
sorry - wrong url .... again, not a recommendation....... just another place to find out about hedging - hopefully.....
http://conference.optionsanimal.com/gotowebinar/re...
................
lately, a lot of reits have NOT been that bearish..... so SRS reflects that...
http://www.easystock.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkna...
http://www.easystock.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkna...
looking at these charts, reminds me, people keep saying - the trend is your friend...... (if you can find out what it is / will be - charts show clearly what it "was" recently)
GM CEO Henderson on CNBC
Henderson wants auto consumers to "give us another chance" and wants to "thank" a long list including Obama for making the bankruptcy possible?! Hello? Those Harvard MBAs couldn't sell a cherry lollypop to a two-year-old for free.
As the astute auto journo David E. Davis, Jr., points out in his return to Car & Driver magazine this month: "... right now GM is forging an alliance with Segway to put people, who might otherwise have bought actual automobiles, into urban congestion aboard vehicles that won't carry luggage but will get you soaking we when it rains. This is called progress."
Sad. Sad. Sad.
Travelers TRV report summary from CS
May 6, 2009
12-month price target: 46.00
Travelers Cos. Inc. (TRV)
EARNINGS
Reducing Estimates, Maintaining Price Target
■
1Q09 EARNINGS: Travelers’ 1Q09 operating EPS of $1.34 beat consensus
by $0.03 per share as better than expected core underwriting margins and
higher than expected favorable reserve development ($0.28 per share) and
a tax gain ($0.12 per share) offset poor investment results due to a loss of
$0.19 per share on the non-fixed income portfolio which is understandable in
the current environment and a 220 bps reduction in after tax interest rates vs.
the year ago quarter. Excluding the $0.12 per share tax gain, the company
would have missed consensus by $0.09 per share.
■
ESTIMATES: We are reducing our 2009 EPS to $5.15 from $5.50 and our
2010E EPS to $5.20 from $5.80. Our estimates decline due to lower
investment income as a result of lower yields, as well as lower underwriting
profitability due to our expectation of flat margins next year vs. this year as
pricing takes a longer time to improve.
■
MAINTAINING PRICE TARGET: Our 12-month price target remains at $46
equal to 0.95 times estimated 1Q10 BVPS, 1.10 times projected tangible
book value, and 8.9 times estimated 2009 earnings.
■
ACQUISITION OF HIG’S P&C INSURANCE BUSINESS UNLIKELY BY
TRAVELERS IN OUR OPINION:
o While we believe Travelers’ management would be interested in
acquiring Hartford’s P&C business for a reasonable price, given the
expense savings and potential acquisition of a direct auto platform
(HIG’s AARP business – management at Travelers just announced a
direct to consumer personal lines insurance business), we view Allianz
as the most likely acquirer given its existing “standstill” agreement,
which gives them time to counter any competing offers. Allianz also has
added balance sheet flexibility with the recent sale of $1.6 Bn in ICBC.
Re: Doubts
"The market will create doubts about yourself and your skills and will frustrate you in every way imaginable."
vinod- Agreed. We will never beat the market, nor will we ever 'win' in that sense. The best we can hope for is to once in awhile kick him in the shins when he's not looking, and then run like hell.
VCP
Bill, you talked about VCP and credit tightening in your WIR, which I look forward to every weekend. VCP is down appr. 1.5 % at 1242 this day.
Do you have any observations regarding the credit situation and what that means for TOG, etc?
Gm Closing 9 plants for 10k workers. Dow 9000 here we come.
GM Will Permanently Close Nine More U.S. Plants, Affecting 10,000+ Workers.
http://tinyurl.com/n3ony2
MON
Filled the gap-up today. Looking for some strength here to complete my position which I, sadly started last Tuesday (next day they announced their year-end guidance would be at the low-end - still, EPS to be $4.40, which would be up 21% YOY). I still like it at this price in this market.
Re: GDX
Sorry, CP, I don't see the volume on the up bars. Maybe later?
Re: One Question
One question that has failed to be asked is, why do the gold majors, which are supposedly doing so massively well, require so much financing? If we are nearing a bear market rally top, then doesn't this kind of financing at this juncture fit in with Bill's accusatory stance on the HB&B? And doesn't that mean that major gold companies are acting very much like the banks would?
Re: Taking FAZ/SRS/TZA out to lunch: Date's over>out 4.31/16.89/
21.69...
Re: Trapped in by SRS
S & P is now above 945 - does that indicate a continued rise?
Re: Date's over>out 4.31/16.89/21.69>>Did that mark the top, or
what?
Re: Cisco to Replace GM; Travelers to Replace Citigroup in DJIA
ALOHA !!
CISCO ... Hummmm??? I love the company as I used to do biz with them on VoIP systems in San Jose Unified.
Travelers ... never did any biz with them but I do not see a lot of difference between insolvent banks and insurance companies. Maybe travelers insures gold vaults!
So stock brokers push "buy and hold" for the masses but the DOW replaces losers with winners. I often wonder what the DOW would look like is it was totally "buy and hold"? So what percentage of the DOW is now TECH?
What a commentary ... Should we now say, "AS GOES CISCO SO GOES AMERICA"?
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
ALOHA !!
Geitner and gang are getting laughed at by the group that the Chinese economists I posted on feel the Chinese government are most fearful of ...STUDENTS! Not the 200 million migrant workers, but the internet based STUDENT types. After all weren't they the cause of TIENANMEN SQUARE? The Chinese government cannot afford another TIENANMEN, but I would believe the outcome would still be the same if it did happen again.
Green Shoots in CO
Morning broadcasters announcing a "Bonanza" for CO residents in the form of Federal subsides (free money) for home improvements: new roofs, renovated basements, whatever you want to do with the money. Only consideration is that you are a homeowner. Apply now while supplies last! They also had a celebratory byline for 47k new Fed job openings throughout the US including some in CO! Yippee! Followed these with a celebratory story on the bankruptcy of GM... how it is such a good thing the Fed now owns 60% of the company (for the meager investment of 50Billion on top of the 20 Billion already loaned) because the Fed can now turn the company around while meeting GMs financial responsibilities! Yippee! Larger government and more debt on the back of ridiculous stimulus programs all while making great strides towards Fascism. Yippee! All delivered to you by happy smiling blissfully-ignorant beautiful faces over your morning cup of Joe... only in the USSA.
We are doomed...lol.
I'm going to wake up one morning, snap, and kill my TV.
Fidelity - Short
If someone using Fidelity can please comment
When you set a "buy to cover" stop loss on a short through Fidelity, do set your price as a limit or a stop loss?
TIA
Casino headache
I have to say, market action lately feels no different than Vegas action. Time frames are so short that watching ticks is like watching dice rolls or spinning wheels. After awhile, it gives you the same headache one gets standing too long at the tables. And if you have multiple positions in play, it feels like you're playing a row of slot machines.
DEADWEIGHT LOSS
ALOHA !!
A new term for most of you here ... "DEADWEIGHT LOSS" ...
This is what fiat currency is propelling at ever faster rates now. This is why I believe a USD collapse will be where it all ends.
DEADWEIGHT LOSS, essentially refers to a misallocation of market functions. I would consider the entire US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT a "deadweight loss", because it assumes the US government is more efficient at spending than you and I are.
Really what we have seen for the past 38 years since 1971(the USA default on gold)is a MONEY MONOPOLY, which I have mentioned here before many times. This has led to market interventions which is really nothing more than "monopoly pricing" by the US CONgress and the US FED. These guys are making a vane attempt to monopolize everything that we consider a fiscal requirement to survive.
Only a total collapse of the US Dollar can reign in our government from its MONOPOLY. Over the decades our government has been spending erratically and accumulating huge DEBT in order for the two party system and the US FED to retain power. This accumulation and misallocation of "real wealth" is what the C WORD is based on. Once that "C" is lost there is no going back ... its done!
Market intervention and misguided taxation has a lot to do with "deadweight loss" ... Who has the MONEY MONOPOLY? Why else would Rothschild say what he said 230 years ago? He was dead on(pun intended)!
Deadweight link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadweight_loss
IT IS WHAT IT IS ...
TSX: EQN
Anyone think First Quantum is taking a run at Equinox?
Re: Trapped in by SRS
If SPX breaks out over 945, SRS can drop as low as 14.
ASX UPDATE
ALOHA !!
This kind of ties into F6 comment and, hey, why not extrapolate that to State and Federal government F6? The two party aristocracy are the global KINGS OF DILUTION AND NON-STOP FINANCE. This country has not been DEBT FREE since 1835!
My move to the ASX and out of the TSX and the USD was based on what F6 said.
ASX listed closing Monday, Jan 1 ...
SLR - Up 12%(460%+ gain)
SRL - Up 2% (240%+ gain)
SLR-All the gold and no debt and management and deposit and production factors have merged here.
SRL-Same as SLR only less gold, but SRL is loaded with cash and moving into to the gold sector more, via JVs. I believe they will pick up some fantastic properties in the not so distant future. Meanwhile they are cleaning up their lose ends. Where's my fiddy cent mates?
Yes ... NO DEBT is the place to be, which just about rules out every shipper and bank and insurance company and the Fortune 500!
THINK MONEY!
DJIA break to the upside
...
Re: ASX UPDATE
innarestin'
gold/silver back in the green
..
MON
jumped in here.
NGas headed back to day's high
...
A quick snap on daily forex
A quick snapshot of the daily forex trade is showing some huge moves:
Re: NGas headed back to day's high
yeh 2pm and everything is pumped - ready to burst?
Re: ASX UPDATE
kaimu,
speaking of fiddy cent, i think we need to remind ourselves that the
wealth and gangsterisms spouted on MTV by rappers dont represent the majority of rap music which is much more introspective and observant than the mainstream junk.
next time you pass through a tough area and see teams of youth on the corner and are filled with images of thugs and violence, consider what that corner means to them,
from MC common sense
Game at it's peak we speak & believe hype
Bang in the streets hats cocked left or deep right
Its steep life coming up where sheeplike
Rappers & hoopers we strive to be like
G's with 3 stripes seeds that need light
Cheese & weaves tight needs & thieves strike
The corner where struggle & greed fight
We write songs about wrong cause it's hard to see right
Look to the sky hoping it will bleed light
The corner was our magic, our music, our politics
Black church services, murderers, Arabs serving burger its
Cats with gold permanents move they bags as herbalist
The dirt isn't just fertile its people working & earning this
The curb-getters go where the cash flow & the current is
It's so hot that burn to live the furnace is
Where the money move & the determined live
We talk play lotto & buy german beers
It's so black packed with action that's affirmative
The corner was our Rock of Gibraltar, our Stonehenge
Our Taj Mahal, our monument,
Our testimonial to freedom, to peace and to love
the corner
"Green Shoots" make me gag
Raise your hand if it actually makes you want to physically hurt someone when you hear them say the words "green shoots". It makes me want to gag. Someone comes up with some stupid term and then every monkey on TV in the investment world starts spouting it as if the more times they say green shoots the faster they will get back the 50% they lost their clients by being 100% long the market all year last year. These are the same people who said buy and hold, you can't time the market, just buy great companies, etc. The sad thing is if that's all the advice you can give me as an advisor I think I can pay 15 basis points for that and just buy index funds - give me some real money making advice, genius! Oops, I just rambled anger for a little bit there - back to my investment thoughts.
So how have I traded it... Well I don't want to fight the "market forces" but I believe the rally is nonsense on a fundamental basis although maybe the fundamental basis is that the Fed is willing to kill the dollar and that would be good for the nominal price of stocks. Anyway, I have been and continue to be long gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX), silver (SLV), agriculture (DBA), Oil (USO) through calls I bought a few months back, somewhat short the S&P (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) in smaller size, Short the long term treasuries (TLT)/(TBT), and newly long natural gas (UNG). I think the economy is going to get worse in the next 6 months and the reality will sink it for investors. I think inflation or stagflation is coming despite the deflationary concerns right now.
XLE +4%, SMH +5%, XAU -0.2%
...
Dropped the $15 covered calls on UNG
bought some additional shares on top of those required to cover the shorts
Difference between the loss on calls and profit on underlying is small enough that I'll happily ditch UNG into the close if it looks like dropping.
Life Insurers Go For Gold
Most likely others will follow...
Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the third-largest U.S. life insurer by 2008 sales, has bought gold for the first time in 152 years to hedge against further asset declines.
“Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value,” Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore said in an interview following his comments at a conference hosted by Standard & Poor’s in Brooklyn. “In the Depression, gold did very, very well.”
Northwestern Mutual has accumulated about $400 million in gold, and Zore said the price could double or even rise fivefold if the economy continues to weaken.
“The downside risk is limited, but the upside is large,” Zore said. “We have stocks in our portfolio that lost 95 percent.” Gold “is not going down to $90.”
http://tinyurl.com/mxv878
CTIC
Halted with positive news. Will resume trading at 2:30
Re: CTIC
2nd
do you remember my post about CTIC and HEB
something has to break
So the buck is down today (again), but look at gold. It hasn't moved. Silver too. With the S&P going nuts on no particular news (thank God GM FINALLY went bankrupt?) - what does all this mean?
RSI(7) currencies: FXA=80, FXC=88, $XEU=78, $XBP=92. They've been gapping up day after day.
RSI(7) commodities: USO=87, GLD=80, SLV=88
UUP's RSI is 17, -0.51%
It feels like the risk of being long commodities (i.e. short the dollar) is growing higher by the day. I have to think the buck is going to snap back sometime soon. And when it does, the S&P will drop like a paralyzed falcon. And so will gold, and especially oil and silver.
The curiosity for me today is gold. With the buck dropping this much, gold doesn't move? And the miners (especially GG) get hurt? And what would that be? Perhaps its gold's turn off the platform.
Re: something has to break
GG's hit has to do with their dilution. Rest of the gold stocks hvnt been hit as much. I think if gold stays or continues upwards, we will see a snapback in GG shares
UNG's gone flat, but don't see selling pressure
traders awaiting their cue from the S&P?
Re: something has to break
RE:>It feels like the risk of being long commodities (i.e. short the dollar) is growing higher by the day. I have to think the buck is going to snap back sometime soon.
Anyway we can preview that move Dave? Or do we just wake up one day to find the USD up again?
Got a forex trader living up the road from me. Bit late to be knocking on the door asking for an idea though.
Re: GDX
BOP - "I don't see the volume on the up bars. Maybe later?"
Ah yes, however, the trend is your friend and this one's been with us since November. On the other hand, she does deserve a break after the spectacular performance.
Wonder if the FED will give her a few days off?
"And when it does, the S&P will drop like a paralyzed falcon."
Now that's an original analogy
Twigg's target for USD
The US Dollar Index is in a strong primary down-trend. The target of 79 is calculated as
83 - [ 87 - 83 ]. The latest retracement will test the upper trend channel. Reversal above 83 is most unlikely, but would signal a bear trap.
http://tinyurl.com/ns83we
We are there at just above 79...
SKF
Seems to be rocketing back towards green. Does somebody know how the close is going to be?
Markets +3%, NGas +10%, XAU -1%
Reversals in FAZ/SRS, TZA lagging.
You'd have to be a full-time trader to keep up.
Re: something has to break
I'm a little concerned that volume analysis does not work with ETFs that basically track another market (in this case, forex) which is much larger than the ETF trade volume. The ETF is like the tail being wagged by the much larger dog.
Volume in gold today is decent. Maybe it's just resting, and like CP says, the trend is your friend. Still those currencies have really appreciated a lot against the buck. Then again, I tend to sell too soon.
The fun auctions aren't until June 10 & 11.
Re: The Fed and LT Bonds
GRYM,
I read Hussman piece every week. As for Jack Bogle I wouldn't waste a minute on the vanguard site. We are no where near levels we can buy and hold stock or bonds.
"I remain convinced that the enormous issuance of government liabilities we've observed is likely to result in a longer-term upward shift in the U.S. price level, but there is not an immediate reason to expect inflation pressure at horizons of less than a few years. That being the case, bonds – like stocks – can be expected to trade in a very wide trading range for some time, and we'll tend to extend our durations on further spikes in yields, while contracting them when yields decline significantly."
How you like those long T-bonds today.
Re: something has to break
RE:>It feels like the risk of being long commodities (i.e. short the dollar) is growing higher by the day. I have to think the buck is going to snap back sometime soon. And when it does, the S&P will drop like a paralyzed falcon. And so will gold, and especially oil and silver.
That sounds like a no win scenario Dave. weak USD - S&P rally. Strengthening USD - end of rally (no concern for gold of course). Do the powers that be want to see a USD regain its footing right now?
These are the same bankers that are trying to smooth over their villain behaviour with an air of normality in the markets.
What has been the historical low for the USD?
Re: something has to break
"It feels like the risk of being long commodities (i.e. short the dollar) is growing higher by the day. "
A bull market won't let you in, a bear market won't let you out?
I'm not sure which is the case, but I feel the sensation of riding a bull. Maybe today will be another of those sell at the close kind of days setting up a negative slope for (Terrific Timothy Tuesday's) tomorrow?
Out of UNG/UNG calls with a no loss trade
any further strength in the price is captured with some Jun $19 calls.
Treating gas like gold - want limited downside risk.
And I wanna go to bed. Monday afternoon aperitif has sapped the strength out of me. Public holiday here today.
cheers and good luck.
Re: something has to break
Haven't you heard? there is a new mandate from Obama for all U.S Citizens to have a minimum of 5 children in the next 10 yrs, if they want to remain a u.s citizen. this way they can jack up taxes on the future to pay for all this phantom rally/economy.
XLF could go red?
Looks to me like XLF may close red unless someone can regain control of this crazy bus! One more rotation in or time to jump out the window before we reach the cliff?
In Cox Years at the SEC, Policies Undercut Action
After Cox became SEC chairman in mid-2005, he adopted practices that undermined the enforcement division's efforts to investigate cases of corporate wrongdoing and punish those involved, according to interviews with 19 current and former SEC officials.
During Cox's tenure, investigators who wanted to subpoena documents or compel interviews faced an increasingly cumbersome process to win the commission's approval for each case, according to current and former agency officials.
http://bit.ly/gpdaF
SRS/TZA>> taking a stab at the middle of the trade
...
GG day trade
Got some GG at 37.55 on the double bottom, tight stop, maybe CP is right the trend is my friend and we're "just resting" here at $978.
Re: Long hot summer? Watts 1965, Detroit 1967, Chicago 1968
2009- It won't be race, it'll be (un)employment.
Maybe, but people often look for a scape goat. With all the talk of illegal alien taking low end jobs and working for cash, they could be the ones who catch it.
The Nazis chose the Jews, in the south it was the Negroes who took the heat. I would hate to see Hispanics take the brunt of the anger all this financial scam has generated. The trouble is they will be more visible than the employers who have exploited their cheap labor.
Re: SRS/TZA>> taking a stab at the middle of the trade/burned
...
Re: something has to break
I started to second-guess myself after unloading all of my G (GG) last week. This news about the financing and possible dilutive effects has restored my confidence. When I see these financings surfacing when the markets are peaking I wonder if the company hasn't decided that there's more money to be made mining investment bankers than doing AU production, at least in the near-term. So, I'm out of G for the summer, or until I see it take a 20% haircut and XAU under 130. I've stopped trying to find linkage between the POG and miner prices - it seems to be all just a gamer's market.
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
"The Chinese government cannot afford another TIENANMEN, but I would believe the outcome would still be the same if it did happen again."
It could happen quietly in the night a few at a time. It happened that way in pre-WWII Japan and with many in Germany and Austria as well.
In case you missed it — it is nearly impossible to buy factory made ammo in the US right now. Stores, even the big boxes like Gander Mountain are virtually out of all but .22 cal.
Many rushed to buy "assault weapons" like AR-15, AK-47, when Obama took office thinking another ban was imminent. Manufacturers are working extra hours, but someone is sucking up supply. Smart move and with no media coverage that I have seen.
Here comes +300 on the dow into the close.
this is unbelievable.
Re: CTIC
I remember Vinod, in fact, I bought some right after you made the post.
thank you (in advance and anticipation!)
vb
CHK
Out at $24.59, I'll wait a bit to see if this rally really sticks..
Singed on the ultrashorts, early out NGas, glad i'm out OCLS
Vinod-
That pretty much sums up my day.
(a) Thought about taking larger positions yesterday in UNG/HNU.to, but UNG was sold off hard on high volume. Who would have thought it would gap back up today on more or less the same volume?
(b) Cut my losses on OCLS early, but better than the close will be.
(c) Went counter-trend twice on the market with ultrashorts and had to back off fast.
I have no clue what happens tomorrow.
TLT, DGP & DZZ
Took a little haircut on TLT and DGP this morning, but held DZZ and it's been ever so slowly rising.
Re: Geithner Laughed At In China
You can't even get .22 up my way
Re: "Green Shoots" make me gag
“Bernanke’s ‘green shoots’ are about to get weed whacked big time, when the BEA revises its wages and salaries estimates downward by as much as three-to-four percentage points for the six months prior to March 31, 2009,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. “The BEA will confirm what we have known for months, the economy is in much worse shape than preliminary estimates indicated.”
http://bit.ly/vIrIT
i raise my hand! GAG...
Re: MON
I am in as well - short the 80 put, long the 75 put.
Re: "Green Shoots" make me gag
Hmm, that post was from a few days ago, so i checked to see if the revision actually happened as they predicted, and, not so much:
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fi...
.............................. previous revised
Personal Income - M/M change -0.3 % 0.5 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change 0.3 % 0.7 %
ugly close for PM's
gold dumps towards the close,
the shares get hammered, hard.
after a mini bounce im expecting crippling losses in mining shares if gold doesnt resume its uptrend, but also expecting spectacular gains if gold does move above and beyond $1000 with people pouring in fueling a parabolic run up as T-bills crash.
either way it pays to be partially in longer term and play with some short term stuff to keep the trigger fingers itched. it truly is a sublime skill to be able to sit tight and hold on during these long term runs.
Re: ugly close for PM's
GG close did not look good. Big move on big volume. KGC and SLW weren't bad, more neutral. I think they held up well.
Alas I am not as sublime as you are. I'm out, and I only pop in for day trades at these lofty levels. I should do what Bill suggests and buy calls to keep my toe in, in case of a big breakout.
SRS Update
Thanks to all for suggestions. I sold of a little at 17.85 when SRS was back on an upswing. Hoping to take the loss and liquidate most of the position (it was at 85% of my portfolio) till it comes down to around 10% of my portfolio. Thanks again.
sectors for today
So trying to keep an eye on what sectors were in favor:
SMH - Semiconductors +5.1% (with a breakout)
IEZ - Oil & Gas +5% (another breakout)
XLY - Cons Discretionary +4.8%
XLI - Industrials +4.6%
IYR - REITs +4.2%
This picture does look a mix of short covering and some people actually seeing a recovery 2H 09. Crazy.
I mean, I think green shoots are bull myself, how will consumers go back to 2007 levels of spending without MEWs, with 9% unemployment, underwater homes, and now rising commodity prices?
Yet perhaps HB&B has convinced the public differently. Those breakouts make me nervous.
Big Picture
I don't know if it is helpful, but maybe?
Looking at GICS's and the only downs from CARA 100 today were: Did not look at volume however.
15
GG
DOW
KGC
SLW
20, not 25!
TGP
30
KO
40
HBC
45
FSLR
50
TEF
I can see that GICS 15 (gg,dow,kgc,slw)and 40 (hbc)were the only stocks that were up from 3 months ago using Etrade...3 month comparison posted here on the 26th.
Re: sectors for today
The illusion of rising market is due to falling dollar. I follow a corrected index (SPX:FXE) and it's falling since the first of May. I know it screws the trading unless one hedges currency at the same time. My hedging was holding an oversized gold mining position. I said was as I'm scaling back on miners.
Re: ASX UPDATE - meaning of "the corner"
Kaimu and Dr. Cosa -
An unusual opportunity for us white folks to understand "the corner" is in the HBO series "the Wire" which profiles several sides of inner-city Baltimore. First season is about the "corner kids", their drug-dealing and culture. The 4th season is about their school experience.
The series' creators were for years journalist, cop, and teacher in inner-city Baltimore. They're not Hollywood script writers. They know what they are talking about.
"The wire" is the best, most real US TV series I've ever seen. Half the actors are black, and half of them from "the corner", "unschooled" and excellent.
The series is available from Netflix. If you get "hooked" as I did, there are 5 seasons of 12 episodes each ...
GG Analysis
In a word? Stinky.
Look at Friday's action:
On a Daily Chart: A narrow bar, closing in the lower half, on higher than average volume.
The narrow spread tells you that someone was selling into all that giddy buying. Buyer's couldn't push prices up. The close in the lower half tells you that sellers controlled. But here's the key: this action occurred at the highest prices in 8-9 months.
This was DISTRIBUTION by the strong hands, the market makers, HB&B, etc. to the folks coming in a day late and a dollar short.
On a 60min chart: Look at the first bar from last Friday--early morning orders jump up to the day's highs and then close at the bottom of that bar's range. DISTRIBUTION. All of us "regular Joes" get excited overnight, we watch the Spot Gold prices gunning up overseas, and we start thinking $GOLD @ $1500, and we're likely to pile in. But then there's the strong hands, happily waiting to sell to us...
They see the orders that are on the books and they know when the big movers are placing sell orders. It is impossible for the market to go up when the big block sell orders are coming in 1/4 and 1/2 million shares at a time.
I could be very wrong, but Friday looked bad for GG bulls and confirmed.
The good news is that prices can again come to us! We shouldn't try to beat the market, we should try to figure out which way the strong hands are ordering and be on their side. Much safer!
Here is IMF working paper on
Here is IMF working paper on the FED. It seems to have many of the themes that Kaimu mentions. Sorry to repost if it has already been. My thanks to all contributors and esp to Bill for giving us this forum.
http://tiny.cc/jjG0D
What is the difference between chasing and following the trend.
Momentum traders i would like to know what are your indicators that separate the Two. When is it OK to enter an upward trending equity and when is it chasing. I am feeling angst about missing this last big move. Which makes me want to enter. Since i like to do the opposite of my anxiety I will enter a small short position tomorrow. I'm a contrarian, I do the opposite of what I think I should do.
Re: GG Analysis
Friday's weakness(GG) - Perhaps some folks knew about GG's $750M senior notes offering in advance, or sensed a top in gold? It has been a spectacular run, but my feeling is this is just a temporary pullback or maybe a ripple in response to Friday's Treasury strength action. The pullback from last week was quite a bit weaker, but I don't see as how the trend has reversed unless the broad market is about to "correct".
Got to keep a constant eye on those Treasuries...
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
Short answer: setup.
A bit more extended would be:
- buying something just because it moves is an impulsive entry. Buying into non-stop upward movement just because the pain of missing the train becomes unbearable is chasing. Worth of note here is that most often those guilty of this are the same traders who claimed distrust of the trend change when it occurred.
- valid entry is one dictated by the setup, in terms of your trading system. Be it a breakout of the consolidation range, bounce off the lower envelope, whatever else formation you play, supported by whatever technical indicators you fancy...
In other words, valid setup giving you the structure of your trade, with trigger, stop, exit target, position sizing, risk control and management strategy is what turns gambling into trading.
CHINA'S FOLLY
ALOHA !!
I actually read the entire MISH blurb on the Timmy Geithner visit to China and what Yu Yongding, a former China central bank adviser, says. I agree with YU ... But I find it astounding that CHINA keeps begging for more fiscal responsibility from America and then all any US FED official says is "STRONG DOLLAR" ... "STRONG DOLLAR" ... "STRONG DOLLAR" ... like some sort of Stepford robotic zombie FEMBOT. You guys know I have been following this scene for close to a decade and this same "STRONG DOLLAR" chant has been going for decades now. Its absolute lunacy for CHINA to even listen to this rhetoric any more. Thank you Chinese students for having the balls to do what your Communist dictator leaders are too chicken to do ... LAUGH!!
Yet here as Timmy speaks of STRING DOLLAR, by the end of today, June 1, the US TREASURY will have crossed over to $8TRIL USD spent in eight months. That's like $1TRIL per month. That is a calculated SPEND RATE of 5.88, down from 5.92 on May 28, 2009. At 5.88 that is 2.87 times more than FDR was spending at the height of WW2 in 1945 and correct me if I am wrong but I do not see 61mil people dead from the WAR ON TERROR. I see no WAR BONDS. I see NO DRAFT. I see no rations. I see no President's Son on the front lines. I see no formal DECLARATION OF WAR. I see NO ALLIED ARMIES. No D-DAY. I don't even see an AXIS ... What country are we at WAR with? Some Arab dude in a cave? Maybe just a lot of Arabs are pissed off at the same time after getting continually bombed their entire life and are all revolting at once in some mass undisciplined and uncoordinated uprising! If you want to go broke fighting billions of Muslims then have at it! They have rightly called a religious war. What else is it? Those are the worst kind since they never end! Whats LMT trading at? Oops ... tracking ... push the track button!
So okay CHINA and MISH ... ask to see the MATH! I see it every day at the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT. What more MATH do you guys need to see? If you guys can get Timmy to explain OTHER and UNCLASSIFIED and make it all add up then you are better men than me!
Here is part of it what Mish and Yu say ...
"Former Chinese Central Bank Advisor Questions Geithner's Math, Calls Federal Reserve Assets "Rubbish"
A former Chinese central bank adviser says Global Crisis ‘Inevitable’ Unless U.S. Starts Saving.
Another global financial crisis triggered by a loss of confidence in the dollar may be inevitable unless the U.S. saves more, said Yu Yongding, a former Chinese central bank adviser.
It’s “very natural” for the world to be concerned about the U.S. government’s spending and planned record fiscal deficit, Yu said in e-mailed comments yesterday relating to a visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
The Obama administration aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to “roughly” 3 percent of gross domestic product from a projected 12.9 percent this year, Geithner reaffirmed today. The treasury secretary added that China’s investments in U.S. financial assets are very safe, and that the Obama administration is committed to a strong dollar.
It may be helpful if “Geithner can show us some arithmetic,” said Yu. “We need to know how the U.S. government can achieve this objective.”
The deficit is projected to reach $1.75 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30 from last year’s $455 billion shortfall, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
The U.S. needs a higher savings rate and a smaller deficit on the current account, which is the broadest measure of trade, or “another financial crisis triggered by a dollar crisis could be inevitable,” the Chinese academic said.
Referring to the Federal Reserve “as the world’s biggest junk investor,” and to Chairman Ben S. Bernanke as “helicopter Ben,” Yu said the Fed has dropped “tons of money from the sky since the subprime crisis.”
“The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve not only has expanded like mad but is also ridden with ‘rubbish’ assets,” he said." END
BRAVO ... YU ... have you seen the US TREASURY'S BALANCE SHEET mate?
Keep buying our FIAT BASED DEBT ... CHINA! We'll keep selling it if you're stupid enough to buy it!
Keep buying our FIAT BASED DEBT ... CHINA! Cause we're broke dude!
Here's who I think is LAUGHING ... its Timmy Geithner ... I personally could hardly keep a straight face if I had to say STRONG DOLLAR that much!
ALL YOUR BEST THINKING GOT YOU HERE CHINA!
DV (DeVry) Replaces GM in S&P 500
Jun 1, 2009, 6:13 p.m. EST
DeVry to replace General Motors in S&P 500
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/devry-to-replace-...
community reinvestment act
get funds to the people
I'm glad I'm long now. I
I'm glad I'm long now. I plant to short eventually, but that may not be for
^^spam
spam alert:
BorseDAXgermany (2 comments) on Mon, 06/01/2009 - 18:28 #30337
link is to the same site all the other spammers were sending to last week.
Re: CHINA'S FOLLY
kaimu - "That is a calculated SPEND RATE of 5.88, down from 5.92 on May 28, 2009. At 5.88 that is 2.87 times more than FDR was spending at the height of WW2 in 1945 and correct me if I am wrong but I do not see 61mil people dead from the WAR ON TERROR."
That's a lot of spending, but we need a better reference... The economy must be more than 2.87 times larger now than back in 1945? Maybe I lost track of the definition for spend rate, are the units in GDP (ie: 5.88 x GDP, or 5.88 x receipts)?
Sorry, I need an occasional refresher on the background terminology... my brain gets cloudy from the constant flurry of numbers. ;)
Gold and Gold Miners
The function of gold has been described as:
"The role of gold's real price and the role of the exploration sector is to meet an extraordinary increase in the investment demand that typically follows and era of remarkable credit expansion"
We have evolved from one helluva remarkable credit expansion to current quantitative easing by the Fed and with no end in sight, as debt destruction continues only slightly abated. The fear created by a falling dollar and failing bond market should increase demand for gold on a global basis as investors seek safe harbor in real money. Imagine the dollar index at 45-55 and much higher interest rates. In the last Argentine economic episode, you went to bed with 12 dollars and woke up with 7 dollars.
Our fate rests with our foreign creditors and they may conclude they do not want to further participate in a
US dollar based reserve currency system. It has been said that China laid down a stern message to the US If they continue to print money the Chinese may sell their dollar holdings and damn the consequences for the US and global economy. Their recent posturing by negotiating currency swaps with resource countries may confirm their intent. The Arab street is acting in similar fashion, organizing their own markets that are not dollar centric.
Re: ^^spam
Thats too bad I was really starting to like Borse Dax Germany.
Bob
Re: Singed on the ultrashorts, early out NGas, glad i'm out OCLS
May be we weren’t in recession and economy wasn’t that bad, but they took market down around 6500 and gave everyone a panic. Took out people on margin. And screw everyone. They new market doesn’t have to go around 6500. When it did they installed a panic that it is going to 5000 soon.
And started buying, and buying and now will take it back to 9000. They made money when it went down and are making money while it going up and having a last laugh. We are woundering what happen? Gives me feeling that half of learning is learning. The other half of learning is unlearning
I think we rally until Labor Day, The stock market is making everyone feel rich again, let’s Party like its 2007?
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
As always, thanks Vad, I really appreciate the input. You are reaffirming what i already know. Plan the trade. trade the plan. I get real impatient when my setups don't materialize. I don't have setups for full out rally mode, So let me rephrase the question. What setups do people use to play a full on bull rally.
Bob
Re: CHINA'S FOLLY
China facilitated the biggest transfer of technology and manufacturing base the world has ever seen. The price was the money they have lost in holding US Treasuries. I'd say they got a good deal. China's abundance in supplying us with excess credit has us hooked like a heroin addict and China is the dealer. They may make us go cold turkey.
Throughout history wars have resulted from economic collapses. These may be dangerous times.
Re: ^^spam
Thanks Dr. C. It is both comical and annoying when the spammers cannot even write good English. Then again, when they do write correctly,it is often obviously written for an immature audience. Wrong! Still annoys.
Re: ^^spam
bobbyo - Wow, you're just too easily pleased! You have quite a knack for making friends, as well! ;)
GM set a new 52 week low with their BK today, an historic event in terms of global capital equities markets.
Re: Singed on the ultrashorts, early out NGas, glad i'm out OCLS
vinod - Wouldn't it make sense we overshot the bottom on the way down? The question is how did we reach bottom so quickly and have we really seen the bottom yet?
I'm playing it by ear, and the trend I'm observing at the moment seems to be moving up.
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
Well, these days I play open breaks and breakout of consolidations. I love pullback entries but we don't get those lately. Those who read our trading logs probably noticed this change: for months our mode of entry was pullback, and I repeated every day "skip breakouts, you will be shaken out, wait for pullback instead" Things change - now it's a break or no play because you are not getting second chance. So... Cup and Handle, JBE, Open Break, Ascending triangle...
PS. I can hardly wait for the online course to go online. We will be able to start discussions a few steps above what we do now.
Re: ^^spam
"It is both comical and annoying when the spammers cannot even write good English"
Oops. Me crawl under ze rock. Me read book, me thought reading book makes me speak English good. vrong...
entry on cup and handle.
Vad, What online coarse are you talking about? Do you enter a cup and handle trade on the consolidating handle part or when it breaks above the resistance on the top of the cup. My god does anyone understand that? I can't write English. I think Borse Dax Germany is the only one that understands me, thats why we are best friends.
Bob
Re: CHINA'S FOLLY
"Throughout history wars have resulted from economic collapses. These may be dangerous times."
Yes. People seem to never learn. Each Generation is prone to the same folly.
Re: The Fed and LT Bonds
Milesquare,
Well, obviously this was not a good day for Treasuries.
On the other hand, not a good day for my gold stocks either, but one day is only that — one day.
Fine, I have no need to justify John Bogle, Vanguard or bonds — you play it your way and do my thing. Time will tell.
Buy & hold is relative — I made about the same total holding Walgreens (WAG) for nine years as I did trading Krispy Kreme (KKD) a little over one. Both were good to me.
By the way, just guessing, but think Bogle has probably done better with his investing than either you or I — so don't knock his approach too much.
Re: entry on cup and handle.
I am talking about the course CTAB educational wing is going to release. Working title is Gateway to Trading. We are running a bit late but it WILL be launched, among whole lot of other content, educational and helping to analyze the current market conditions. You'll have a hub where all the information you need will be concentrated in one stop shopping. If it's half as good as drafts I saw, it will be stunningly useful - and knowing the team talent pool I am confident it will be twice as good.
C&H entry - well, particular way of entry is more of a personal preference... remember the qualification of regular entry vs. aggressive vs. conservative and their respective trade-offs?
Re: entry on cup and handle.
"Do you enter a cup and handle trade on the consolidating handle part or when it breaks above the resistance on the top of the cup. My god does anyone understand that? I can't write English."
Umm... I understood that perfectly... which ought to be equally disturbing for me AND you
spam
When you point me to the original mail, I will delete it.
Jeff is also going to introduce a more elegant solution.
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
"What setups do people use to play a full on bull rally."
bobbyo- Since prices are all we trade, I would have to say this bull rally is playing ME. I exited the mutual funds I play in the buy-and-hold half of my portfolio April 15, when the DJIA closed at 8029. It's now 700 points higher. The problem with mutual funds is they trade only at EOD. Not much I can do if I decide at the open the market might spike up by the close- I have to buy the close. And I just can't justify that kind of risk right now, as I don't personally BUY into the rally. So if the DJIA hits 9000 in the next few weeks, I won't be on board that train.
In the trading portfolio, I'm down to scalping a few hundred bucks here and there.
I'm trying to keep an open mind, though. Can't say right now what would turn me into a full-fledged bull- I don't see that happening, but neither am I looking to stop it from happening. I've been wrong about market direction for the past few weeks- I'm willing to accept that, and be thankful I've cut losses due to being wrong quickly.
Re: CHINA'S FOLLY
ALOHA !!
SPEND RATE
I try to make these things as simple as possible. SPEND RATE refers to a simple dollar for dollar budget. In other words for every $1 USD the US TREASURY receives in receipts(tax revenues) they spend $5.88USD in outlays(expenditures like SS, MED , Defense, Food Stamps, etc ..) So on a dollar-for-dollar basis Obama has to SPEND more than FDR just to maintain a really wimpy war like the War On Terror that essentially no American even thinks about any more because hardly any Americans have a vested interest in what happens in Iraq or Afghanistan. Really no American even cares about the US Foreign Policy now being administered by Hillary Clinton. Most Americans my age are only concentrating on retiring! Younger Americans are concerned about a job and how to pay for their family.
As I have pointed out with my menus the purchasing power of the USD has been broken. A USD buys 97.5% less than it bought in 1913. Somewhere along this scale is WW2 and somewhere along this scale is NOW! Nobody is immune from the hidden taxation of inflation, not even the perpetrator the US government, and the "embedded inflation" now values a USD at 2.5% of its original value. So in simple terms our government has to SPEND 2.86 times more to maintain the War On Terror vs what FDR was spending on WW2. Debt based money causes this ... its irredeemable currency.
What economy? Its the DEBT! No matter what you speak of it is measured in DEBT! DEBT is the bottom line. What causes DEBT? I mean its a DUH question but apparently not for Timmy and Ben and the gang! And I wonder about the Chinese leadership ... they may have been building up their tech industry and factories selling to America but what are they building up now that America is broke? That's the part I question ... at some point the creditor tells the debtor enough is enough, otherwise the creditor defaults as well.
What's wrong with living in a World where everything is NOT based on DEBT? When I was a kid I recall hardly nobody bought anything on DEBT. You saved up and paid cash. The first proto-type credit card I ever saw was my Grandmother's Neiman-Marcus card and it was made out of metal! I find it very sinister as to how DEBT has evolved in America. At one time you were scorned for paying on credit and now you are scorned for not paying on credit!
So the US Dollar defaulted in 1933 and it defaulted again in 1971. If you add that 38 year time period between 1933 and 1971 you get 2009 as the next default year. Don't go "tin hat" on me! Kind of interesting number play though ...
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
bobbyo, now is not exactly the buy time but if you take the high beta stocks in cara 100 & buy them low, they would outperform the index returns during a bull run. RSI tool can be very helpful as well to decide the entry point. Problem is we all dont have patience and wait for prices to come to us and pay dearly for that (mine included).
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
Shiva- Good point. Maybe the correct strategy is in fact to sit tight (as bobbyo has done). I'm (constitutionally) unable to chase prices, which works for/against me at different times. There is ALWAYS a pullback (the most recent reminder being UNG).
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
Re: What is the difference between chasing and following the ...
Submitted by Shiva (369 comments) on Mon, 06/01/2009 - 20:36 #30358 (in reply to #30343)
bobbyo, now is not exactly the buy time but if you take the high beta stocks in cara 100 & buy them low, they would outperform the index returns during a bull run. RSI tool can be very helpful as well to decide the entry point. Problem is we all dont have patience and wait for prices to come to us and pay dearly for that (mine included).
guilty as charged!
Re: TSX: EQN
That is the rumour on the street as they hinted they were making an acquisition in the near future and most assume since they own 20% already that is their plan
Today's Treasury Action
Here's a note I found on today's Treasury market rates, with operative adverbs. (paraphrased):
2yr note climbed, 3yr note rose, 5yr note jumped, 7yr note soared, 10yr note catapulted, 30yr bond increased.
The Treasury will be announcing additional supply on Thursday, perhaps around $65 Billion for auction next week once the ink dries.
Corporate bonds are still flying off the shelf, although today's volume was somewhat light.
Perhaps some of the selling pressure will soon abate? If not, and the FED announces more QE to remedy the situation, PM's are likely to benefit. <-(My observation)
Re: CHINA'S FOLLY
Thanks kaimu, spend rate value is a function of receipts. So as receipts decrease, the spend rate increases even if actual spending does not increase.
The problem with living in a world without debt is that HB&B can't borrow from us at a low rate and lend that same money back to us at a higher rate. They like the current arrangement because it is to their advantage.
This relates directly back to stories about debt peonage, or slavery, and the company store. Of course the concept dates back as far as ancient Greece, perhaps even further... America has been sold by the federal reserve system into debt slavery.
ASX UPDATE
ALOHA !!
The ASX is up again and so is the rest of the World! We're all in NIRVANA, those of us who still have dry powder and used it. Look at all the LEH and BSC people who are broke and have nothing left for retirement. Pity the poor employee who sunk all his earnings into the company stock. They were Cramered! Any relation to "Munson"?
SLR - Up 12% (510%+ gain) 1.4mil
SRL - Up 6% (260%+ gain) 4.2mil
Since last Wednesday SLR has moved up around 44%. Is this SPROTT'S doing? Reminds me of 2003 when making $25,000 a day was not uncommon. Still you gotta sell at the right time mate! That you do ... If only there were Wall Street factors!
Skimming over some posts and some by Colin Twiggs gets me hearing what happened in the Weimar Republic when inflation set in. Yes, the German stock market was the money spigot and the closer you were the more you made. But what could you buy? $1mil Marks for a loaf of bread, if you could find a loaf ... One of the keys then was how companies with lots of PP&E tied to "real wealth"(mining, oil, gold etc)far out performed the rest. It really came down to the C WORD and there was no more "C" left for the German Mark then.
Hummmmm???
Re: CHINA'S FOLLY
ALOHA !!
CP posted ... "This relates directly back to stories about debt peonage, or slavery, and the company store. Of course the concept dates back as far as ancient Greece, perhaps even further... America has been sold by the federal reserve system into debt slavery."END
Man ... you got it ... beautiful! America has been sold mate! You are so right ... spot on! Sad to say 99.9% of us Americans were never asked if we wanted to sell!
QUESTION AUTHORITY!!
BORSEDAX
ALOHA !!
Who is this German who keeps talking about my DAX?
Its "skiddies' mate!
Vad- "What Doesn't Kill You"
Vad- Based on your list of favorites, you might like this one. Another film set in the streets (eighties) of South Boston. Director Brian Goodman also (co)wrote and acts. True story.
TBT
Mr. Yu carries a very big stick. Tread lightly Timmy... http://tinyurl.com/lnmpxh .
Re: entry on cup and handle.
Yeah, I understood it perfectly too....Anyway...conservative entry is when the handle breaks above the top of the cup.
Aggresive entry: when you think the handle has bottomed, or has begun the upward procession. Oftentimes, and Vad will correct me if I'm wrong, as the handle descends, volume will drop until the handle begins its ascent where volume will begin to pick up.
You'll have to ask Vad about the stop...However, if you enter on the break above the cup, your stop would be the bottom of the handle.
Re: Vad- "What Doesn't Kill You"
Thank you, will try to remember it by the moment summer bliss is over... :)
Re: entry on cup and handle.
Not exactly right on conservative... but I am too lazy (especially in the summer) to type much, so:
http://www.realitytrader.com/blog/2007/07/how-aggr...
On volume as C&H is shaping up: we want volume configuration to mirror one of the price - rise toward the rim, dry up toward to both bottoms. Kind of obvious if you put in perspective of the general principle which says volume should increase on advances and decrease on pullbacks in order to confirm an uptrend.
Today’s VIX (+3.87%) and the
Today’s VIX (+3.87%) and the SPX (+2.58%) on the same day.
One previous instance that topped today’s double spike, back on November 27, 2002, which was the day before Thanksgiving. On that day, the VIX was up 4.93% and the SPX gained 2.80%.
November 27th, was just two days before an intermediate high which preceded a 17.3% drop that led to the final bottom process some 3 ½ months later. From this point, the markets began to rally and were bullish for more than four years.
Re: entry on cup and handle.
This Dax Guy is great! I think we should keep him around like a community Pet.
Anyway, Thanks Nemo, 2nd, shiva, and Vad for the education. I assume if you want to play the break over the cup edge you have to be nimble. Could you take a short cut by using a stop limit buy order at the breakout point. Probably fills are not guaranteed though.
Another question what criteria do you use for open breakouts? Cramer:)
Bob
friday's close
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1072-W...
Re: ^^spam
Apologies to Vad, also Vinod. You are trusted sources. My own rhetoric may be influenced at times by my 1/2 Polish, twice removed, background.
General Motors' bankruptcy filing
I just noticed as of midnight the bankruptcy of GM does not even show up on the Google news(yawn)I guess we all have become climatised to the shame of failure! I am confused as to how the people who lead these companies to collapse get to participate in there new beginning.
Re: GG is down 2.7%?
dr.cosa- At the time of my post, all of the miners I follow were still green. I sold the last of my KGC (in my IRA) right after that. My point was the dislocation between GG and the other majors.
DC- "do you really think GG is down because of the recent offering?" So to answer your question, yes, in relation to the others. I think the close bears this out.
BTW, thought this was interesting regarding KGC. Take a look at the block trades... http://tinyurl.com/2detgr . Thanks for you posts. I went to play soccer about an hour after you yesterday!!
Re: friday's close
Nope, he was wrong and lost money on his weekend short. My take, as I mentioned already, The Fri last minute spike was a huge winning trade based on an inside info on good economic indicators released on Monday.
As a matter of fact, the strong action on Monday was possibly due to short covering that resulted from people shorting the Fri spike.
SWC Insider selling
Heads up if you're long SWC.
http://tinyurl.com/lxkhzw
No position.
Re: ^^spam
Illini, no worry at all, just a lighthearted fun. I rarely miss a chance of self-deprecating humor.
Re: entry on cup and handle.
Community pet is good idea but under the condition of declawing by taking away the ability to include links in his posts...
Can't answer about stop limits for break setups without knowing your time frame, idea of the trade etc... sorry, too many specifics involved.
On open break - it's so simple, I am almost embarrassed. Then again, most of my setups are of a "cockroach type" - you know, simple and robust is how they survived millions of years :)
Let the stock make a few moves up and down establishing the opening range. Usually 2-3 times is enough. If a range is narrow enough for my risk tolerance, I have my play - enter the break of the range, whichever way it happens, place the stop on another side. Additional considerations are volume configuration, general trend on daily...
HR 1207 HANKY PANKY?
ALOHA !!
Okay ... the hanky panky in the US CONgress just never stops. It seems these political thugs will go to any lengths to hide the "truth". The US FED essentially wants every American citizen to lie down like doormats and pay for everything into eternity without question. The US FED has ordained itself and its member banks(the usual suspects)as the "experts" of monetary policy ... They know what's best for us!
I don't think so ...
READ ON:
"HR 1207, the bill to Audit the Fed, now has 179 co-sponsors. Currently the leadership of the two parties has not addressed this legislation until recently. A Senate audit bill that is unrelated to HR 1207 titled “HC-45” was introduced to audit the Fed and was promptly amended to limit the scope. It appears now that a so-called limited government Republican by the name of Richard Shelby did the watering down of the bill. Apparently he has written into the margins of the bill in pencil "with respect to a single and specific partnership or corporation." That means that the scope of the GAO’s audit has been severely limited. This modified version of the amendment does not give GAO authority to look at all of the additional taxpayer risk. Why the secrecy congressmen? Senator Charles Grassley conceded to the amendments, and has therefore shown his stripes as willing to compromise the financial security of the United States citizenry for his own political gain.
Voters would do well to remember Senator Grassley and Shelby as people who do not support oversight or transparency into the monetary system of the United States. These Senators have abdicated their responsibility to the people and should immediately step down.
Claims for Federal Reserve Bank independence from politics are political distortions. The regional private banks appoint the governors of the Fed, and therefore have a private interest in the policy set forth. The President appoints the head of the Fed, so therefore it must be accountable to the people. The American people are not stupid, and during these times of financial crisis when all Americans are forced to report every penny they come in contact with their entire lives, the Federal Reserve must submit to the same scrutiny."END
QUESTION AUTHORITY!
Re: Today’s VIX (+3.87%) and the
Thanks vinod, very interesting.
Re: friday's close
jack, i focussed on the # of contracts traded in the last minute, which was useful info, ties with what Bill has been saying all along about stick saves
European Analysts advising clients to sell the Euro
"June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The euro’s steepest three-month rally against the U.S. dollar in seven years is sapping the earnings of exporters in the 16-country region and delaying its recovery.
That’s why Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG and Barclays Capital, the largest currency traders, are urging clients to sell the euro, which strengthened 11.8 percent from Feb. 27 to close at $1.4158 on May 29, the sharpest rise since gaining a record 13.7 percent in 2002’s second quarter."
Is it for real, or are the currency traders playing against their clients? Suspect real. I'm seeing examples of European traders get their bottoms spanked when they collude against their clients.
This is what bears dream about, this is S&P futures /ES
http://screencast.com/t/Iztk1cgQotq
S&P 500 breakout
Will yesterdays breakout from the 3 week trading range hold ? A similar breakout occurred back in the first few days of January before the index rolled over. Time will tell ...
http://chart.ly/zhnzqa
goldcorp
Is set to issue convertible debentures. 750 million worth, terms and conditions not announced yet.
THE REAL DEAL
ALOHA !!
Yesterday I posted about DEADWEIGHT LOSS ...
Here is an article I found published in Harper's Magazine, May 2008, one year ago, on the market distortions created by political expediency. The only way this could succeed is due to the "monopoly pricing" effect we all are now witness to. The BLS is a monopoly allowed by the US government and HB&B. These monopolies exist with the blessings of HB&B because there has been this bond between Wall Street(US FED) and the US CONgress for decades upon decades. This bond promotes their interests which is rarely ever the ultimate truth. This author believes it has been going on for 40 years now, but I believe it started when the US FED was created in 1913. Why else would the first SEC Chairman be Joseph P Kennedy, the Ivan Soprano(combo of Ivan Boesky and Tony Soprano), of the 1920's?
I have been writing about this for years and have been a fervent believer that all the financial data we see on CNBC and the Evening News has been manipulated to put whatever political party that is in power at the time in a good light. We all know or sense that something is amiss, which is why I post here from time-to-time something I call the GROUND REPORT. All that means is that I see a World that does not match the World that official government/US FED data is reporting to me.
To me there needs to be a separation between STATE AND BANK. As I have believed for over a decade, since the days of Ross Perot, we need to ELIMINATE THE US FED. Trying to regulate them or seeking transparency will never work. They are too powerful to ever be controlled. We need to face the music and eliminate them.
This Harper's article goes through the history of the NUMBERS RACKET that has been present in every administration REP or DEM or DEM or REP. Its what you get every time you vote the two party aristocracy into power.
Here is a portion of the Harper's article(written May 2008) ...
"Arguably, the unraveling has already begun. As Robert Hardaway, a professor at the University of Denver, pointed out last September, the subprime lending crisis “can be directly traced back to the [1983] BLS decision to exclude the price of housing from the CPI. . . . With the illusion of low inflation inducing lenders to offer 6 percent loans, not only has speculation run rampant on the expectations of ever-rising home prices, but home buyers by the millions have been tricked into buying homes even though they only qualified for the teaser rates.” Were mainstream interest rates to jump into the 7 to 9 percent range—which could happen if inflation were to spur new concern—both Washington and Wall Street would be walking in quicksand. The make-believe economy of the past two decades, with its asset bubbles, massive borrowing, and rampant data distortion, would be in serious jeopardy. The U.S. dollar, off more than 40 percent against the euro since 2002, could slip down an even rockier slope.
The credit markets are fearful, and the financial markets are nervous. If gloom continues, our humbugged nation may truly regret losing sight of history, risk, and common sense."END
So essentially this data manipulation ... DEADWEIGHT LOSS ... of monopoly pricing has created this huge mal-investment in every market that HB&B and the US TREASURY and the US FED touches, which is EVERY MARKET ... EVERY DAY. If you want to deny this happens then I can take you hand-in-hand right to the US FED website where the documented FOMC Meeting Minutes from the 1970's clearly shows who did what and when. Arthur Burns is no saint and neither is Paul Volcker. They have colluded along with every other US FED Chairman to subvert markets for decades and they pass their legacies along to every successor. Welcome to the party BEN SHALOM BERNANKE! There is no bigger INSIDE TRADER than the US FED and its member banks. While Bill tells us HB&B trades against their clients I tell you the US FED trades against America.
Its a full blown MONEY MONOPOLY and as GATA accurately sums up it is ANTI-TRUST. Rockefeller saw Standard Oil broken up as ANTI-TRUST and an oil monopoly, yet what is the US FED other than a MONEY MONOPOLY, which we are all seeing is way BIGGER than a tiny oil monopoly? You can always ride a bicycle if you don't like the price of gas, but you can't even eat or own a home if you don't like the price of a US Dollar.
HARPER'S ARTICLE LINK: http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023
This will end in the streets with a monetary collapse. That has always been the end result of rampant intervention that leads to DEADWEIGHT LOSS. This is a crisis in CONFIDENCE ... the C WORD! Its monetary ...
Really who here will dispute that REP AND DEM are NOT a MONOPOLY? If you vote these two parties then you vote a MONOPOLY no different than Standard Oil in the early 1900s or the NY MAFIA.
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
Re: spam
Bill, I'm unclear on just why this person keeps coming here.
Is he simply looking for more hits at his website?
Is he trying to get more readers of the articles there?
Depending on which his goal is we could all flood his site with crappy articles, nonsense, etc. and destroy any reason for anyone to go there.
P.S. In Army Cook School we were taught dozens of ww=ays to prepare the original "SPAM" :-)
I'm not much on passive — I'd rather attack.
gold catching a bid premarket
Gold and silver both now green premarket, gold +6 to 986 and silver +0.04 to 15.78
The dollar is off again, looks like another green day for the S&P. Maybe today we'll break 1000 in gold, and 950 on the S&P? It's easy when the US peso is moving rapidly to parity with the loonie and the aussie dollar.
Want an interesting perspective of our new bull market, our green shoots, our big recovery? Jack black went down the path with the euro, but I want to go further.
$SPX:FXA (S&P in aussie dollars) - http://tinyurl.com/mrm2fk
FXA, +27% last 3 months
$SPX:FXC (S&P in canadian dollars) - http://tinyurl.com/nahf47
FXC, +18% last 3 months
Gold in all other currencies peaked in late Feb, and has been going DOWN for the past 3 months.
Pathetic. We're getting "bread and circuses" while Rome is burning!
(I love those mixed metaphors)
Re: gold catching a bid premarket
So gold has yet to flex its real muscle as a panic safe haven/perceived inflation hedge?
cool.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Downgrades:
JNPR - to Neutral @ UBS. Price Target Raised from $24 to $27
VCP - to Underperform @ BMO
From Tim Knight's slope of Hope
"I hope you Slopers are doing OK on this, the 89th day of Captivity of Sanity. We pray that our bear market, held hostage since the first part of March, is being treated humanely by its captors."
Where's a Navy Seal when you need one?
Mish on GM
Mish pretty well covers the GM situation this AM.
This subhead...
"Obama: Nationalization of GM to be short-term"
...will, with a bit of luck, also apply to Obama's term.
Re: From Tim Knight's slope of Hope
Reminds days when the Bank of England propped up the pound. Eventually Soros came in and taught them a lesson.
Re: Mish on GM
He is for long term. GM is only one of 30 companies in DOW. 29 more to go?
Silver is dragging gold along again this AM
If I can snap a few percentage points off June GLD 100 calls today I'll follow Bill's lead and transfer em over to July.
Maybe slv instead. Silver seems to be the one doing the hard yards during this rally.
2nd AVE
Could you re-post those trading rules/guidelines you posted a few months back?
They have been extremely helpful to my account balance.
FAZ
Is today the day to get back in?
Re: 2nd AVE
shark- Assume you're referring to Todd Harrison's Ten Trading Commandments:
http://tinyurl.com/m7h6uq
Tuesday Chat is up
http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-...