[7:15am ET] The Week In Review this week was used in part to discuss the importance of maintaining and reviewing archives in order to keep ourselves grounded.
In response, Illini wrote:
Bill,
You said: "The point to covering this old ground is that archives can speak volumes."I agree re your archives in general as positive. However, I did see that in 2005 or 2006 you were high on Citi Group as a powerhouse for the future. I cannot locate the archival post on that. I just remember reading it in a random search of the archives which I cannot duplicate now.
Illini, Citi was part of the Cara 100 in 2005 and 2006 and I wrote about it in a positive light, frequently.
http://tinyurl.com/pbakcq
My most glowing blog on Citi was done on Oct 5, 2006. The close that day was $50.99. Here is the link:
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2006/10/citi_and_the_age_of_new_paradi....
Citi at that time was cranking along with excellent growth in revenues, earnings, and dividends, as confirmed by Value Line.
http://www.valueline.com/dow30/f9055.pdf
In the 2Q07 I started to get concerned about the banks, and Citigroup. This particular blog in May 2007 will help nail down the discussion and my thinking of Citi at the time. In it, I said that hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert, who seemed to have enough problems of his own, was clearly, to my eyes anyway, part of a promotion in the 1H2007 to help blow-off millions of shares of C stock, in the low 50’s right at the cycle top.
Fast Eddie, who controlled Sears, must have known that, within two or three weeks of his making sweeping announcements of acquiring over 15 million shares of C at prices well over $50, in mid-May, the major banks had started to squeeze the retailers. Maybe it was just incredibly bad timing by one of the world’s top paid hedge fund managers who happens to know pretty much everything that is going on in Wall Street.
http://billcara.com/archives/2007/05/caras_daily_board_thurs_may_17.html
Soon after, starting with my blogs of June and July 2007, I became quite concerned that these banks were obviously in a credit squeeze that first hit the retailers, whose stocks had hit the wall, and then the hedge funds of HB&B, some of which were abruptly closed.
Later, sometime in late October or November 2007, I saw Citigroup had taken a huge drop in earnings ($1.06/share for the prior year’s Q3 to just $0.47), and the share price had fallen below technical support levels. In the November 22, 2007 WIR, I decided to drop Citigroup from the Cara 100. The closing price on the Monday was $31.70. In retrospect, I dodged a bullet as this chart shows:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=C#symbol=C;range=5y
A year later, I did make a major mistake in believing that the broad equity market Bear had started cycling through the bottom, and I remarked that my outlook had turned to one of a glass-half-full. My bad. However, from 4Q2007, I never again blogged positively about Citi, Bank of America or JP Morgan because they were the three US mega-banks that held 95% of the infamous Credit Default Swaps, the source of much of the problems in the capital market still.
Bottom line is that without archives we can easily fool ourselves, which can be a disaster as a trader. In blogging, I have a great many people keeping me grounded, and I thank you all for that.
Have a great day.
Comments
Hussman
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090518.htm
The bottom line is that the attempt to save bank bondholders from losses – to provide monetary compensation without economic production – is not sound economic policy but is instead a grand monetary experiment that has never been tried in the developed world except in Germany circa 1921. This policy can only have one of two effects: either it will crowd out over $1 trillion of gross domestic investment that would otherwise have occurred if the appropriate losses had been wiped off the ledger (instead of making bank bondholders whole), or it will result in a stunning and durable increase in the quantity of base money, which will ultimately be accompanied not by a year or two of 5-6% inflation, but most probably by a near-doubling of the U.S. price level over the next decade. As I've noted previously, the growth rate of government spending is better correlated with subsequent inflation than even growth in money supply itself, particularly at 4-year intervals. Regardless of near-term deflation pressures from a continued mortgage crisis, our present course is consistent with double digit inflation once any incipient recovery emerges.
Guess I'll wait for 1pm.
"U.S. stocks signaled a higher open Monday ahead of data on the housing market. After a pullback in stocks last week, investors are looking to housing for clues about the economy. The National Association of Home Builders is set to release its index of builders' confidence for May at 1 p.m."
Afternoon all.
Maybe some SRS play today :)
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Downgrades:
CEO - to Underperform @ Credit Suisse
SLB - to Hold @ Jefferies & Co. Price Target = $59
ANNUITIES
ALOHA!!
We used to have a Lincoln Financial Group annuity ...
I have posted before about annuities. My basic thesis was that the insurers are no better off than the US Banks although this is what Lincoln posts about their annuity guarantees:
"Contracts sold in New York are issued on contract form 04-600NY by Lincoln Life & Annuity Company of New York, Syracuse, NY. The contractual obligations are backed by the claims-paying ability of Lincoln Life & Annuity Company of New York.
Not a deposit.
May go down in value.
Not FDIC-insured - Not insured by any federal agency.
Not guaranteed by any bank or savings association." END
In November 2008 Lincoln bought a bank so they could qualify for TARP by calling themselves a "bank holding company".
Lincoln lost around $600mil for the Q1 2009 and dropped their dividends on common shares from 21 cents to 1 cents per share from last year, but they kept the 75 cents preferred share dividend the same. They went from earnings of $1.42 per share in Q1 2008 to a loss of ($2.27) per share in Q1 2009.
Then on May 14th, Lincoln announced they got $2.5bil from TARP. The CEO spun it like this:"Dennis R. Glass, President and Chief Executive Officer of Lincoln Financial, said, "Over the past several months, we have been actively and prudently taking measures to strengthen our liquidity and capital positions at both the holding company and our insurance subsidiaries. Consistent with that goal, access to the Treasury's Capital Purchase Program is a means to further enhance the company's financial flexibility and capital in what has continued to be an unprecedented economic environment."END
As you will see later the "holding company" he refers to consists of three full time employees.
So the company did all this to improve its already great AA, stable outlook ratings from S&P.
What bank did they buy to qualify for $2.5BIL USD in TARP? Here it is: "Lincoln Financial Group Applies to Become Savings and Loan Holding Company
PHILADELPHIA, November 17, 2008 — Lincoln Financial Group (NYSE: LNC) today announced that it has applied with the Office of Thrift Supervision to become a savings and loan holding company concurrent with reaching an agreement to acquire Newton County Loan & Savings, FSB, a federally regulated savings bank."END
How much did Lincoln pay for this bank? They won't disclose that but I found that the Newton County Loan & Savings has only three full time employees and one office located in Goodland, IN. Total assets were $6.6mil USD. Their last financial statement for 2008 showed they had a loss of $377,000USD. I think its a safe bet to say that the TARP $2.5BIL would cover the cost to buy Newton County Loan & Savings!
Link to Newton County bank: http://tinyurl.com/oumk44
WOW ... what a sham ... Maybe I should go out and buy a tiny bank in IOWA and get $2.5BIL USD too! Do I have to pay back the $2.5BIL?
Losses and 1% ROI will not cut the mustard for these global insurance companies in the long run. Beware of gating ... Of course these companies will never pre-announce that.
I'm out of annuities and I paid the taxes for it!
Loses premarket
Low volume, 300k despite beating eat. Show me the money/volume
Penny Stocks, the Good Ol' boys
The Good Ol' Boys are out patting each other on the back this week.
i see on Bloomberg that GS put BAC on the conviction buy list and a whole slew of mid-sized banks got upgrades.
A friend of a friend that is a big wig at a bank that unlocks stuff (figure it out) says it is likely they become a key to someone else's too big to fail future. Bankers doing what they do best, robbing banks.
Bill nails it. The banks don't even qualify as penny stocks if they're BK do they?
The price of progress
I used to bemoan the ascendancy of technological developments which were at the time applauded by the media as creating greater efficiency (Read: getting more work done per employee). I used to prognosticate that society would reach a tipping point and that we would, in our lifetimes, witness the end of the period of general employment. Well, guess what? It's happening. Fast forward to the future, 2 or 3 years from now and you will see that whatever recovery takes hold will do so in a JOBLESS RECOVERY ENVIRONMENT.
In the future workers won't work in an office, won't receive any benefits at all, won't earn terribly much to begin with and won't ever have access to the type of credit which we just experienced. The upshot?
Housing 'aint gonna recover. Not really. Not now, not soon, probably not "ever".
And don't anybody refer to me as an incurable optimist please:)
The pooch is wimpering in the corner. Wall Street is buckling it's pants.
The American People get the shaft. Welcome to America people. It sucks, unless you're rich, in which case it truly is THE BEST COUNTRY MONEY CAN BUY.
My Game plan for QID
This is my current plan for trading QID based on QQQQ.
http://tinyurl.com/rbot94
Will try to post my plans later for IWM [shorting] and SLW if possible.
No interest in going long, futures too strong to go short
Vinod- That's my take this morning. All cash and scanning the boards for a destination. NGas might offer something.
The Fourth Noble Truth
Seems to fit the comments of last night.
From CT's diary:
"As a youth, Prince Siddhartha enjoyed the indulgent life of pleasure in his father's palace. Later, when he renounced the worldly life and became an ascetic, he experienced the hardship of torturing his mind and body. Finally, he realized the fruitlessness of these two extreme ways of life. He realized that the way to happiness and enlightenment was to lead a life that avoids these extremes. He described this as the Middle Path."
~ Zen Guide: The Fourth Noble Truth
Re: The price of progress
Norbert Wiener in his book "The Human Use of Human Beings" was thinking along the same line. His specialty was cybernetics at MIT.
http://www.isss.org/lumwiener.htm
Re: The Fourth Noble Truth
The Fourth Noble Truth...Wasn't that the "8 Fold Path"?
Re: No interest in going long, futures too strong to go short
2nd
Sold 1000 IBN at 16.00 from my IRA account, because of election. What a wrong decision
Lately I am more wrong more than right. Indian election is going to put them on patch of growth of over 10%
And china stimulus plus stimulus here is yet to have impact. May be we should our view about market?
$USD
The dollar is down substantially pre market and oil is up of course. It should be another good show today.
Re: No interest in going long, futures too strong to go short
Vinod- I'm always open to changing my views about the market.
Re: The Fourth Noble Truth
From what I understand, yes. At least from Wikipedia....
Destination
Interesting post Nemo. How are you my friend?
Today my destination will be Yamana. Gold is showing some pre-market moxy, and this thing's been buyable at it's 5 minute low, at least for a trade if not for all day, more often than not. Of course, it's a judgement call.
I just keep wondering about the demand side of housing going 4ward....Who among us, WHO will be able to pick up the overpriced pieces of the housing bust? Not generation Y, or G-Z or whatever they call them. And not me either. Not now, anyway.
The financing terms of the 20th century were designed to facilitate the sale of the stock from the large hands to the small ones post-WWII (think 30 year mortgage...what the hell is that but a price-ratcheting-up device?)
Houses would have and should now cost what people can afford to pay for them. As it is they are pricing in some phantom recovery in both demand, demographics and credit. Hey, I love a good fantasy too.
Got the Toyota fixed...All it was was a factory recall deal on a part which, once replaced, has turned my 3 year old Corolla into a VIRTUAL NEW CAR.
Gold rising more, it's a decent bet now. BTW GSS is looking really good on a breakout above it's minor resistance on rising gold, and you should calculate those levels and figure out he trade.
Have an awesome day my friends.
Re: Hussman
Hussman's commentary today seems in sync with the Professor Fekete article —
A CRITIQUE OF THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY
http://tiny.cc/jrUfR
Both Hussman and Fekete see the Bernanke policy as sucking up dollars which should go into the economy rather than rescuing the bank bond holders.
It looks like deflation first/inflation later and a destruction of USD in the end.
$TED
Now at 0.67, the lowest in the past 17 months according to stockcharts.com. No stats prior to that. So what does this mean? Are the banks so awash with fiat$ that demand for interbank lending is falling into the abyss along with the rate?
Slow open?
Does the market feel slow and quiet today?
Russians - Question/Riddle
Why are Russians referred to as "Reds"?
Because firetrucks are red and firetrucks are always rushin'!!!
Re: Slow open?
"Does the market feel slow and quiet today?"
Not to me at the open, my account jumped 5.5% and even my DZZ has gained.
Make that 5.6%....
USD/GLD
Interesting action here today.
UUP down, GLD and miners down? Alrighty then....
I'm sticking with the fourth noble truth. Almost all cash, waiting patiently.
No extremes.
I notice, when I'm in cash I'm calmer....:>) I try to keep it balanced with Kaimu though, just to keep cash in perspective.
Love Bev's plan. Plan the trade, trade the plan.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
PBR - Price Target Raised from $48 to $51 @ Barclays. Equal Weight
-----------------------
Note: Many financials are being upgraded today including BAC, GS & MS. The upgrades are coming from what "appears" to be many varied sources.
DZZ
Out at $22.43, bought a big mac and paid the electric bill.
That's some serious suppression of gold
...
some volume in tech, particularly csco
rotation?
NEW DELHI — Investors in
NEW DELHI — Investors in India greeted the results of the national election with such exuberance Monday that stock exchanges were shut down after making huge leaps.
The Bombay Stock Exchange was closed for two hours, but when it resumed trading, the Sensex extended its gains to 17.2 percent, hitting 14,272.63 points, which set off a circuit breaker that halted trade for the remainder of the day.
when it opens again tomorrow i expect it will go over 15000.any good new here and same can happen here?
Re: Slow open?
Bought 500 TTM trying to catch the wave. Held it for about 15 minutes and made enough to pay broker fees. I'll wait for a pullback and then maybe!
Re: NEW DELHI — Investors in
vinod - Would IFN be the correct approach?
Re: NEW DELHI — Investors in
Chickenpookie
I only play IBN and TTM, do not have any knoweledge of other stock
I will stay away untill dust settle down
Re: That's some serious suppression of gold
JPM beatdown to keep USD up. Expect more of it this week.
Re: The Fourth Noble Truth
THe Middle Way was Confucius I think
From Accounting to Zen
Remarkable eclecticism here. Thanks.
Five horsemen
Not so good today on the horsemen. Kind of a mixed bag, nothing like the banks. Pathetic, eh?
My bet is (disclosure) on buying PM's and miners on this AM's weakness.
Re: That's some serious suppression of gold
RE:>JPM beatdown to keep USD up. Expect more of it this week.
So HB&B seeks to walk the middle path. Suppress gold, trash the Euro with some bad news, and avoid the extremes of ascetic hardship falls if possible.
Might play some time wastage with a bear call spread if this is the path they choose.
Re: The Fourth Noble Truth
I take the last path. I forget his name but an ancient Chinese philosopher that opined everything was linked to the movement of the bowels. As I get older I see more clearly how the other philosophers and teachers were limited by his teachings.
Re: Hussman
Grym,
The essential thing to read in Fekete upon which the bulk of his ideas is based is his "Iron Law of the Burden of Debt". http://tinyurl.com/qbyhrm
I'd love to hear your thoughts on that if you have the time.
SPNG
I like the concept and think it will do well. Examples like this are an exception to the penny stock rule IMO...
LIBOR RATE & $TED
Bill, I would like to know your thoughts and to see a discussion on this topic here. There seems to be no interest so far. I am trying to make up my own mind as to what is presaged. Here is a Bloomberg article from today http://tinyurl.com/qdjb9q
“We’re definitely seeing an improvement on the liquidity front and the risk aversion perception is sharply decreasing,” said Mickael Benhaim, who manages about $32 billion as head of global bonds at Pictet & Cie Banquiers in Geneva. “Non conventional measures from the central banks are working pretty well. Things are normalizing gradually.”
The availability of credit has improved as the Federal Reserve committed $12.8 trillion to stem the longest recession since the 1930s and central banks around the world cut interest rates to near zero. Libor, used to set borrowing costs on about $360 trillion of financial products globally, according to the BBA, has declined from as high as 4.82 percent in October, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
$12.8T from the FED is the highest number I have seen thus far.
Libor has dropped more than two basis points for the past four days. The last time it fell so much was in the four days through Jan. 13.
So is 'the worst' really behind us and that 600 point up day just around the corner? Time to load up with TNA and ride off into the sunset?
SRS trade
Been adding to SRS when IYR nears trend line or 38.2% Fib.
http://tinyurl.com/qa764j
Note on IYR Daily chart resistance line @ 31.9 has held so far today.
http://tinyurl.com/qhfhp4
SRS
http://tinyurl.com/qqb7ld
Citi 2005
I remember around this time when Citigroup was scavenging the countryside here far and wide looking to suck in additional loan officers for their refi business. I'm pretty sure they knew trouble was brewing and thought they could take advantage, I remember the hair on my neck standing up in suspicion.... Not long after, I started selling real estate.
Re: That's some serious suppression of gold
Newman = Gold in a Fed prison
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n0mgkaEGQc&feature...
"Sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand."
I'm out for now.
Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
http://tinyurl.com/oqyc45
Re: SPNG
Chicken - are you invested in it?
Re: Penny Stocks
"Re: Penny Stocks newSubmitted by Bill Cara (526 comments) on Mon, 05/18/2009 - 05:38 #28099 (in reply to #28082)
teamonfuego,
Actually, I liked the SPNG idea you came up with, and commented that if it was a one-time observation, it's the kind of value-added contribution that helps this community. Not everybody here avoids penny stocks, which means many people are always on the look-out for new names and various insights to the extent that's an independent process. It's up to us to help the filtering task. What I rail about is when some "investors" get hooked on a story and then find themselves trying to convert others. Self-promotion or selling of penny stocks is something I don't permit personally or in the blog, and the harder some people try, the more I repel their efforts. Beyond a certain point, I can get nasty about this stuff because it's no different than multi-level marketing of a financial product by people who, for the most part, are unqualified, unregistered and, beyond the initial layers, unknowing of the true facts involved in a particular stock promotion. Why should we listen to such people? Well, I don't, and I'm going to make sure, to the best of my ability, that you don't either. So, what will be rejected will be the single-minded participant in this community, and their ongoing saga. You all should help me spot them and filter them out. With about 100,000 items annually in the Discourse, by now many of you ought to be able to spot the red flags, but it helps to speak up for the benefit of others who don't. Sharing and helping is why I am blogging."
Bill - I totally agree. The only time I invest in any kind of penny stock is if the company (a) sells a products, (b) that product is something I have seen and can buy easily, and (3) the company is profitable.
Re: The Fourth Noble Truth
Well, there was a line about tao being in fecal matter
bought back a Nov CAT put for 22% gain
CAT is getting a bit ahead of itself there. Won't say no to some green, even if it is just one put.
Re: NEW DELHI — Investors in
Hi Vinod,
Barack could march a caged OBL behind him in a triumphant victory parade down Wall Street and we still wouldn't see a 17% price recovery/ ciruit breakers etc. This market is so poisoned by the antics of HB&B that good news is tempered by the massive amount of distrust that is out there, and distrust will remain until the people see justice done and REAL CHANGE happening.
The Future of Capitalism
CNBC will be doing a special about the above topic. When capitalism stops working for 90-plus percent of the citizenry (pick your own number) combined with the lousy government we've had with their lousy debt Capitalism's future becomes questionable. Sounds a little like something they might have done in Russia (if they'd had television...tell us Vad...Did you grow up watching 20 year old re-runs of "Green Acres" and "Mod Squad" like I did?) during the 1980's discussing the future of Communism when arguably that ideology little future.
Re: $TED
I've heard from people who know economy that LIBOR and TED can be easily tempered with by Fed and central banks.
There are other credit spreads that paint different picture.
Besides, pay attention to RSI on both $TED and $LIBOR. This is the area when major tops happen.
Re: The Future of Capitalism
One can only speculate as to the unbiased nature of this "special".
Once Dylan Rattigan left it was all over for CNBC. They are like Kenny G, they have one trick, and it's all done.
Why don't they simply list Jeff on the writer's credits?
Re: SPNG
teamonfuego - "are you invested in it?"
No I'm not, there's only so many balls I can juggle at one time. That doesn't stop me from believing it will work out nicely, the concept certainly has validity.
I like MGM
Above the 20 SMA daily
Re: The Future of Capitalism
I never cease to be amazed that Kenny G made it in music. One day some real jazzer should teach him how to play the horn.
I also loathe the musical stylings of Michael Bolton, Barry Manilow and Cher.
Re: That's some serious suppression of gold
Man, intense Cool Hand.....When I lived in the San Fernando Valley as a kid my mom rescued George Kennedy's dog. He was a heck of a nice guy.
Current RL
As of 11:15 AM
UXG bouncing back on incredibly low volume
someone's bidding it up
Re: Current RL
You are a fountain of information!
So are these the long positions at various levels of the S&P that remain to be unwound?
A good deal of them resting in the 902 to 915 range?
And it is what, professional money at this level?
Some learned comments on that chart would be appreciated thanks,
Le.s
Re: SPNG
Chicken - I hear you about having too many balls to juggle. I think that is one of the more challenging things about investing...filtering out the information that is only vital to your future success.
I'm having a hard time trying to get my hands around what I think the market will value this company at. They have issued a lot of PRs in the past couple of months updating people on sales figures and I estimate they're doing a run rate of about $13 Million per month. That equates to $156 Million per year. They have had net margins of about 12 to 16% in their most recent quarters, but I'm going to use a 10% margin just to be conservative. That means $15.6 Million in earnings. If I assign a conservative multiple of 8 to this then I get a valuation of $125 Million. They have 722 million shs outstanding so that would be a price of $0.17 or about 4 times their current price.
Do you think this makes sense? I know this is being pretty conservative, but I don't want to get too ahead of myself on this trade. I don't know what the multiple would be for the average small cap that is growing fast in this kind of market.
I think the SpongeBob SquarePants sponge that is coming out in about 50 days should do quite well so it probably makes sense to hold on until that point in time and see what the sales results are like...
Re: Current RL
Yeow, odds in the 90's....
The market feels like cool whip. None of the fat and none of the flavor.
SU volatility
Bill wrote about oil (XLE etf) in the WIR:
"The worst of the losers were from Canada’s western O&G group, Suncor (SU -11.6%), EnCana (ECA -11.1%) and Imperial Oil (IMO -11.1%). A week earlier, SU and ECA had soared +18.6% and +17.9% respectively. Now that’s volatility!"
Dancing with the music:
A week ago last Friday with the big SU upmove, sold JUN 35 covered calls. Willing to depart with shares at that price with a nice profit or pocket the premium.
Last Friday during the pullback, sold SEP 22.50 puts on SU. Willing to add to position at that price with a 21 handle or pocket the premium.
Otherwise, recently selling positions into strength and retaining cash on sidelines.
On the road today without skype, will be checking in later.
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
"Estulin said that the economic crisis is a vastly greater threat than a mere recession and that, as long as the present structure of the global economy remains the same, it will ultimately lead to a massive population reduction of two thirds within a generation or two."
That is some scary statement, does one group have all this power ? It seems to me that when people are poor they reproduce at a much greater rate, the so called richer countries have the lower birthrates.
Re: Current RL
Hey Les...grab some popcorn and see if this helps?
http://tinyurl.com/qv34nh
Not more learning! Ok, where's the wine bottle gone to?
Thanks Bev ;)
Just a thought
Coming up this Wednesday is one of those "Phi mates" turn dates that Dr McHugh keeps track of [see attached]. Wonder if HB&B are pumping up the market today before dropping in the next day or two. Just a thought!
Re: SPNG
teamonfuego - Simply put, I think you found a miniature gold mine. The Spongebob trademark is priceless my friend, I've even seen specially made televisions shaped like spongebob, not just adorned with decals. Considering the consistent popularity with so many kids(at least one generation?), it's not just a sponge, it's an icon.
Re: Just a thought
His last 2 dates did not work. Nothing is absolute in this business. Every system boils down to 2 principles: let the winners run and cut losers short. Very simple yet very difficult.
Update on the Hywel Jones murder
http://www.thenassauguardian.com/national_local/29...
As noted in the papers here, I have every confidence that the local police will try to apprehend the persons behind this.
Re: Just a thought
"jack black"
According to him they did work.
As for me,I don't use them to trade off, but just as another "possible" indicator.
Re: Update on the Hywel Jones murder
Bill - I'm sorry for your loss. I hope they catch the person(s) responsible for this...
Re: Just a thought
I am expecting a sustained reversal above the S&P 900 level sometime over the next few days before Memorialday weekend.
Vical is worth watching...
eom
Re: Update on the Hywel Jones murder
The person who may have a grudge, as mentioned by Hywel's brother, is the person Hywel was involved in litigation with, is that correct Bill?
Jones
The accepted theory, isn't it a little bit transparent? If I have a beef with a prominent guy am I really going to kill him? Isn't that a little obvious? And IF I'm a big shot who wants a guy dead on an island, am I going to hire the local scum to do the job? No way. Too risky. He gets caught and rolls like a Jeep on prom night.
The hit man doesn't live on the island, and escaped by boat/plane. A professional job.
BTW if I'm Jones in the past year I move away after the first or second beating, and I don't leave a forwarding address.
SRS @ 21.52
Day trade.
Re: Just a thought
slightly above 900 now. If we cross that 930ish range, then off to 1000.
On the other hand, if you see weekly SPX charts, we had one down week. If the trend is down, i would think this week should close either flat or down on a weekly basis.
buffet & derivatives
so why does he play the derivatives?
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/250285/Betting-on-America-Buffett-Doubles-Down-on-Derivatives-Ups-Stakes-in-Wells-US-Bancorp?tickers=WFC,USB,SPY,^GSPC,^DJI,BRK-A,BRK-B?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Re: SRS @ 21.52
2nd
There is lots of uncertainty and unsettle situation here. Buying a big short ETF here and holding overnight can bring misery for us here. Somehow have feeling that we are not in normal environment as far as market is concern. Just thinking what is going to happen to short positions pending in Indian market? Investors will bang their boots and come in to cover them. There could be another circuit breaker. Lots of foreign investor has big short position
NYC
ALOHA !!
So this is where we're at? We ruin all the cities and counties and States just to save the unions? Isn't that we did with the US Banks? We ruined the entire Nation just to save the banks?
Here is a suggestion to anyone who lives in NYC or has a business there ...
M-O-V-E !!
Does the Mayor think that if they could come up with the $43BIL that anything would change after that? That is why we left California. It does not matter how high the taxes are the State is always broke!
So as it stands if I started out as a cop or fireman at age 20 I could retire at 40 with a fat pension! Hummmmm ... that sounds reasonable. Then after I retire I could go get another union job and retire at 60 with two fat pensions! Or maybe before then the union will have the retirement age down to 5 years! HA!!
Too unreal ... Yes ... MOVE sounds better! If I owned a company there I would move it out. I wonder how many companies are doing that?
OBAMA or should I say the US TAXPAYER, will give NYC a BAILOUT! Then of course LA, MIAMI, CHICAGO, DALLAS, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, SAN FRAN, ST. LOUIS, ATLANTA will all want their BAILOUTS! Until we get down to Hilo size cities!
BAILOUT NATION ...
READ ON:
CITY IS FACING PAYOUT DOOM
$43B HOLE COULD DESTROY BUDGET
The city faces potentially catastrophic costs of up to $43 billion from recent pension investment losses, which threaten to drain the municipal budget and put taxpayers on the hook for years.
Recent market losses have left massive gaps for city taxpayers to plug -- $15 billion from Fiscal Year 2008, and an estimated $28 billion from 2009 if the pension funds dip 20 percent as feared, officials told The Post.
The city says it will have to fork over $7.9 billion in extra pension contributions through 2016 -- but payments would go on another nine years to pay off the staggering debt.
This year the city is paying $6.4 billion in pension contributions, plus $1.7 billion for retiree health benefits. Those costs are expected to rise to $12.3 billion in 2016.
"The growing costs to the city are a perfect example of why we need to reform an outdated, unmanageable system now," said Marc LaVorgna, a spokesman for Mayor Bloomberg.
A source familiar with the pension system put it more bluntly: "This is scary."
Taxes could "go through the roof," and city services such as police and fire protection, schools and sanitation could suffer from forced cuts, experts said.
Taxpayers must make up the difference if city pension-fund investments earn less than 8 percent a year.
City Comptroller Bill Thompson said Friday that "because of the nation's sputtering fiscal climate," the pension funds had dropped another 6 percent in value in the first three months of 2009 -- from $82.5 billion to $77.1 billion.
The funds had already plunged from $101.9 billion in the previous six months. The fiscal year ends June 30.
Mayor Bloomberg is pushing for a bill -- over stiff opposition from labor unions -- to cut future costs by requiring new cops, firefighters and other employees to work 25 years instead of 20, and to wait until age 50 to start collecting their pensions.END
Home improvement
Talked to my drywall/painting friend. He has two months backlog and has more bids in the works.
I don't know if it's for 300 SF bathrooms, but a lot of commercial work.
Lowes reported better than expected numbers today (whoever determines that BS) and HD will report tomorrow.
Re: Jones
shark, I agree with you. I had been thinking there had been a nexus with Jamaica, and then yesterday I looked at my last mails with him and was surprised to see he had been to Jamaica (where he once worked for a couple years while with Barclays) in the three weeks between his speaking at our conference and the shooting. He recently told me (i) he suspected his beatings and robberies were on account of his legal issues with a former partner, (ii) he was about to win that case, he felt, (iii) he desperately wanted to re-focus 100% of his efforts on his business, and thought that would soon happen. He told me he would possibly move back to Jamaica one day because although he only spent a couple years there he really loved the place. I knew he had excellent relations with the University of West Indies (Mona campus) in Jamaica, and that he was extremely proud of all the work he did to organize charitable donations for them. I was generally aware of them, but even before the Cdn tax authorities stopped the Cdn Banyan Tree foundation from offering them I rejected the way I could see they had been set up -- even though the top Cdn law firms in Toronto had done the opinion letters. I also backed out of a gold deal with him when he failed to come up with the due diligence files he knew I needed. But I did want to work with Hywel because he was an honest guy. He was a professional who kept his business close to the vest. I really don't think his family or even his team knew how he operated because he kept things so private. I don't see how his company can continue without his leadership. He was the man. Partly because of this, I have put more time into succession planning. In my case, most of it was already in place, but now I am working on the small details. You never know, of course, when unimaginable things happen until they happen.
Re: Home improvement
ALOHA !!
Craig ... Is that because people are trying to get their homes ready to sell in the spring and summer market?
We are doing some construction work here expanding the living area of the house and remodel/maintenance stuff. No waiting for contractors here ... plenty to go around! The ones I know say they have never seen it this slow and a lot of the contractors who came to Hawaii from other states are done, they're moving out.
Some of them that did spec homes just want to sell them, but need renters also. Its a tough act!
So its dicey in the Hawaii residential home biz! Still I have not seen a really big bust in home prices from these levels, especially in the Honolulu condo sector. I guess TRUMP will finish up the TRUMP TOWER WAIKIKI, but he is running on fumes and its taking forever ... I'd love to be sitting in on one of Trumps contractor progress meetings. Man ... IVANA tame those filthy beasts! What change order? She would certainly liven up the meetings that I used to go to in my contractor biz days. HA!! Oh Donald, you must be tired of it all by now ...
Hummmmm????
SO IT GOES ...
Re: $TED
Thank you Jack, I appreciate the response. As of Friday 5/15, on an 11 month chart. $TED RSI was near 10, the lowest since late December/January 2009, MACD is below 0 and trending down, full stochastics are literaly flatlined at the bottom, similar to December 15-22, 2008.
If the stochastic was a gas peddal, then it's mashed all the way to the floor!
I'll use your advice and continue research, but for now it's back to the 'honey do' list.
Thanks again Jack.
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
Couple of things to remember in all of this... The first is that these guys are human. They put their pants on one leg at a time as Bill is fond of saying. That means they are fallible. They may have lots of money, power, and control, but so have many failed empires of the past. They may have exerted unnatural force in molding the face of the current crisis, but people are catching on to the game in vastly greater numbers than ever before. The propaganda machinery is wearing thin. They have arrived at their end-game scenario and things have not gone exactly according to plan. Globalization drags as uppity populace stubbornly refuse to participate. THe middle east war has not ignited into a global confrontation despite the continued wailing of those tiresome Israelis. Russia has effectively displaced the oligarchs and Asia has vociferously put them on death notice if they violate certain boundaries. Furthermore, the world is not under the dagger of a desparate and deadly society-altering pandemic. Nor is the world deathly afraid of man-made global warming.... No, I'd have to conclude that things have not gone as they had originally planned.
How do you think this looks for elitists in bed with plotters? They have been repeatedly awed by the power exerted by these guys, perhaps even bought off for complicity and silence, and then, in the greatest hour their leaders botch the coup. Things have gone badly awry from promised scenarios and the schedule is altered again and again. I think a lot of people in the know are getting a little afraid.... more than a few cold feet out their in elitist land. This will show itself in more desparation as we go forward.
This planet has got to get over the hump of enforced impoverishment based on the false ideology of finite and inadeguate resource. I assure you that technologies exist today that would transform the planet to a world of abundance for all within a generation. But these technologies are not permitted to be developed as they represent a politically unacceptable equalizer for the masses. The elite have sequestered these technologies for their own purposes. To the elitist, these technologies represent control and power, instead of ubiquitous abundance as they should.
I think the planet's populace is tired of this game. I think the villagers win in the end. I think things are going to change radically in the future in favor of abundance. This is why I have watched so closely for so many years. I am sick of the BS. There will be growing pains, but it is time humanity grows up.
Re: Home improvement
LOL Kaimu!
I think it may be a shift in faith now that you mention it.
He used to do a lot of banks, now he has a couple big church jobs.
$TRIN
Seeing $TRIN skewered on 0.80 +/- 0.10 I can't help but imagine all the HB&B supercomputers whirring away, figuring the odds. Then the whirring stops and display screens light up with the trade probabilities, tactics and strategies, next the market comes alive.
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
You can't stop information and it's information that is power.
We like to blow hard on the Soviet Union's demise, but we had only a small part. Once anyone could build a satellite dish it was all over but the shouting.
The populace grows tired because it is more and more informed.
Just look at this blog as but one small part.
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
RE:>There will be growing pains, but it is time humanity grows up.
It has grown up man! Think about the systems of government that have reigned over us from the empires of old. Emperors, religious clerics, kings...
These wily capitalists had to work a lot harder to ensure that the people toe the line. As they've belatedly found out, using debt to ensnare the masses only works for a given time. Their consumer goods-as-bondage is rapidly approaching the wreck of ecological limitations. People already see something new, an alternative. Capitalists and government will now have to react to those desires and create an appropriate reality.
Speaking of alternatives. From Bill Moyers interview:
http://www.goodguide.com/
and a classic of mine for the ladies:
http://www.cosmeticsdatabase.com/splash.php?URI=/i...
(this last URL is great for finding soaps, shampoos, cosmetics that are cleaner and safer and funnily enough, its usually the cheap labels that come out on top)
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
MtnGntx - "I assure you that technologies exist today that would transform the planet to a world of abundance for all within a generation."
I applaud your observations and would be most grateful for a brief glimpse at a list of the empowering technologies being suppressed. Truly, I feel a compelling desire to focus on such subjects...
Re: Home improvement
ALOHA !!
I'm not sure ... is it IVANA or IVANKA? I am so outside the celeb loop ...
Yep Craig ... you gotta go where the jobs are. I imagine there will be quite a crowd of contractors heading for the STIMULUS ROOM! Since it is all PUBLIC WORKS I am sure there will be a plethora of union reps as well!
I am glad I got out when I did ... it must be some brutal bidding wars going on these days. Back when I was in the frenzy there would be times when I was the only bidder or maybe one or two at the most.
My mark up on my labor was usually 50% overall(on top of union dues/taxes) and on some jobs I'd mark up labor 100% and still get the job! I also bumped up my labor weighting as well into the journeyman wage rates. At that time those union wages were running around $55 per hour for IBEW journeyman electricians. That's around $112,000USD per year. That's a lot of moola for a guy that waddles!
WOW ... don't get me started! HA!!
Still, even with all this unemployment running rampant I cannot find a good ag worker other than the guy I have now. He is leaving to move to Mississippi this Summer so I need a replacement. I have warned him of Mississippi ... but ... hey ... young dudes must learn their lessons on their own. My recruiting base is the University Of Hawaii Hilo(UHH), horticulture dept.
Anyone want a job in the jungle on an island?
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
"I assure you that technologies exist today that would transform the planet to a world of abundance for all within a generation." MtnGntx
Hi MtnGntx ,
Was just wondering what some of these technologies might be?
TIA
CE1969
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
I don't agree with the MtnGntx with his views of suppression of technology, but there is some truth to that.
Remember GM buying up and dismantling public transportation infrastructure many decades ago? Car companies shuning electric and hybrid solutions for many decades? Alcohol fuel initiative leading to food price exposion and starvation last year?
Sometimes societies supress good things themself. We are excited by the 40-50 MPG hybrids in USA while Europe has small diesel cars doing 70 MPG.
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
It sounds scarry and not possible, but the previous leaks also sounded that way in the past and checked out flawlessly.
Lets face it, we still have relatively abundant resources and hi-tech technology relying on those resouces, yet half of the would is hungry or poor.
What is going to happen when these resources truly vanish? Sure, solar power and so on, but the price of energy will have to go up and major readjustments will happen. Wars will be likely, as Marc Faber keeps saying.
I agree with Faber, especially since major wars break every 40-60 years (generational gaps) and we are overdue for one (I don't think Iraq counts for a major war).
Re: Jones
condolences on the loss of your friend, Bill. i hope that events proceed in such a fashion as to at least provide the minor solace of a just conclusion.
On the question of Pakistan...
Bill Moyers has an interview with a couple of people who are intimately familiar with the country.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/05152009/profile...
Their call? Washington and the media are way over-inflating the issue in order to pull the Pakistani leadership into line.
U.S GAAP to give way to IFRS
Consulting companies like Delloitte have been salivating on the work to be generated by the conversion but a lot of companies are very skeptical due to the cost involved. After SOX this is the next big thing for the consulting firms to genearte $$$ and they are trying hard to push it ASAP.
http://www.ifrs.com/
http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/13640960?f=insidecfo
Re: The Future of Capitalism
Shark,
Unfortunately a lot of people will tune and buy into what is said on CNBC.
Next week they may have a special with exactly opposite "expert" opinion on how to deal with it as an investor.
Paulson betting on real estate in the near future.
Paulson & Co. is in the early stages of raising money for the new fund. In a departure for the firm, which tends to be more focused on running hedge funds, the new venture will be a private equity fund.
Documents recently filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission will allow Paulson & Co. to begin talking to investors about the fund for the first time – with fundraising expected to begin shortly.
Although a cap on the fundraising has not been decided, it is expected that the initial size of the fund will be a couple of hundred million dollars.
Mr Paulson has hired Mike Barr, a former managing director in Lehman Brother’s $25bn-plus real estate private equity practice in New York, to manage the fund.
Mr Barr is being assisted by former colleague Jonathon Shumaker in managing the fund, which will be known as the Paulson Real Estate Recovery Fund.
The life of the fund is expected to be seven years, with investments to be made in both the residential and the commercial property sectors.
This is the guy who made billions betting on the market tanking.
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
Vinod- You're right. Taking the loss here.
Nice rally but where is vol?
Trimmed some shorts
Re: The Future of Capitalism
Grym - I'll take my half out of the middle. Never in my life have I witnessed lower prices for an extended period of time, this is what my father told me was his experience, his father told him the same. I do put faith in the notion that markets can test one's patience, debt is a two lane road, and when using the passing lane, timing is key.
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
2nd
We need to find something other than this ultra short ETF. They seem to be too hot to handle in an up market.
Too much bearish news was floating around last weekend and should have consider it as good indicator for market to go up
Reading blog of zero hedge and big picture are not good for psychological mind setup. Best to do is not to read anything and follow our own instinct
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
Smart move. Again when I read that you were making this trade I wondered why. Again the advance decline line was screaming the odds were not in your favor. I know you are looking for a reversal but why not at least see the advances and declines reversing as a sign that the market is weakening. Trying to short when you have advances plus 2000 and declines minus 500 is not likely to prove being a successful way to consistently make money.
Now adv's are 2676 and dec's are 436 if that would shift to say 1945/1340 etc, than at least you have evidence of weakening and a sign of a reversal. Will this get you the exact top? No, but again trying to short with such an strong a/d line is aggressive.
JMO
Re: Hussman
aucourant,
I'm afraid I not qualified to do much of a critique on Fekete's article. I can say this from my own experience — My 4% Treasuries ruffly double when I sold them at a Fed rate drop to 2%. Not quite double since rates are on much large blocks of bonds than I am able to trade with.
That's enough "iron" to suit me.
My most fortuitous trade was a fluke. When the 30 year Ts were discontinued a few years ago, they suddenly began to be sold en masse, the rate went down and I made a 30% gain in only three months. I never could figure out why people were dumping them, but "never look a gift horse in the mouth" comes to mind :-)
China: todays US$ for tomorrow's barrels of Brazilian oil?
WSJ reports China is negotiating with Brazil (state-to-state) to fund Brazil's massive offshore oil dev't from China's hoard of US pesos.
Think about it. China, in these deals, is spending US$ today (since they're sure to depreciate in future) for long-term strategic returns: assured oil supplies priced today, and delivered far into the future.
In other deals, China provides infrastructure (no doubt also paid with today's foreign reserves, in return for assured future supply of minerals.
US$, likely to be depreciated by Uncle Sam's "borrow and spend" while hard asssets are likely to increase in value as the world economy returns to health.
Wall St. isn't financing such projects now, so China faces no competition on deal terms.
Shrewd strategy for these conditions !
2nd, you've taught me well...
I'm off, having done nothing today.
night all.
Go Away in May? No Way, Jose!!!
This being potentially the largest market crash I'm liable to witness in my lifetime, I'm simply unable to tear myself away from participation in the spectacle.
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
it does seem to be losing the steam
http://tinyurl.com/6bs3xq
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
telestar, great advice but why so late?? Next time you disagree to such a strong extent, can you please post it?
thanks,
vb
Re: Current RL
Bev, interesting concepts.
My question's to you is how long have you been using their algorithms/service? Do you think its worth the money?
Are you affiliated with the Hong Kong company in any way?
JPM and SPG - low volumes
I mentioned that I have been watching these two stocks as bellwhethers for financials/REITs respectively. Both are up significantly on the day but have traded less than half of 3m avg volume so far today (with about 30 minutes to go).
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
T3d- Thanks. What's funny is I made early morning trades on SRS/TZA that did work out (which I decided NOT to post, as they were high risk, and were closed out within 15 minutes).
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
VB, I mentioned this to 2nd within the last two weeks here when he was also trading the SRS with the ad line screaming.
We all have a style of trading and I mean no dis-respect to 2nd.
Another thing is that the 2-3 contra hour showed zero weakness, not positive for the shorts.
New WEB search site launched today
http://www02.wolframalpha.com/
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
I trade this SRS some times and you can be right and wrong three different times in the span of 5 minutes. SRS is a rowdy lady.
Short ETF's
2nd - I was going to follow you into SRS @ $20.70, but you and Vinod talked me out of it.
I went with FAZ @ $4.95 for a quick trade, maybe overnight.
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
SRS--if it goes to 20.00 will buy some
Obama set to release
Obama set to release pollution standards
Obama plans to release new vehicle emission standards
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama will issue new fuel efficiency standards and pair them with a broader goal of reducing pollution from vehicle tailpipes, marking the first time limits on greenhouse gases will be linked to federal standards for cars and trucks."
"The proposal is expected to coordinate two separate standards for fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, aiming for cars that achieve higher miles per gallon and have lower polluting air conditioning systems,"
Finally!!! I'll bet the A/C service industry doesn't like this one bit. HFC's on the way out? Maybe R501(HC only) on the way in? I had to pay $68 for a $4.98 relay this past winter because these shenanigans, York and the local service companies wouldn't sell me the part, I finally bought the relay from an online HVAC parts dealer at York's huge price and considered myself lucky. When the part arrived with a generic OEM part number, a brief search located a replacement from an electronics supply house for $4.98. York insisted I have a serviceman come fix the blasted thing and pay Union wages. No HVAC franchise, no support!!!
A quick search reveals some potentials:
" HFC-152a
HFC-152a is almost a straight drop-in substitute for R-134a. The molecule is similar to R-134a except that two hydrogen atoms are substituted for two fluorine atoms. It has similar operating characteristics to R-134a but cools even better. One test in an otherwise unmodified Saturn Ion found that A/C duct outlet temperatures were several degrees C lower with HFC-152a. Fuel efficiency was also up 10% at idle, and 20% at highway speeds. The system typically requires only about two-thirds of the normal charge with HFC-152a and can be used with current desiccants.
An environmental benefit of HFC-152a is that it has a global warming rating of 120, which is 10 times less than R-134a, but still a lot higher than CO2. That is why HFC-152a is currently used in many aerosol products as a propellant. Its main drawback is that it is slightly flammable (Class 2A), but it is not as flammable as propane or most other hydrocarbon-based refrigerants.
The first mobile A/C system to use HFC-152a was unveiled at the Mobile Air Conditioning Society (MACS) Worldwide tradeshow in January 2004; a self-contained unit for off-road construction equipment that featured an oil-driven compressor. Made by Red Dot, the unit may be the forerunner of future HFC-152a A/C systems to come.
Red Dot staff explained that the HFC-152a refrigerant used in the self-contained unit improves cooling capacity, decreases fuel use and helps protect the climate. The new technology also satisfies stringent new regulations proposed by the European Commission. Red Dot staff also said that the HFC-152a system uses new technology that will use hydraulic-driven compressors and secondary loop technology to increase reliability, safety and reduce the amount of refrigerant required.
HFO-1234yf
Another new refrigerant that is being considered is HFO-1234yf. Developed jointly by Honeywell and DuPont, it is being promoted as a possible drop-in replacement for R-134a in both new vehicles and older vehicles, should that become necessary in the future. HFO-1234yf has thermal characteristics that are very similar to R-134a, so no major modifications to the A/C system are necessary. Better yet, HFO-1234yf has a global warming potential of only 4, compared to 1200 for R-134a, allowing it to meet the European requirements for a GWP of less than 150. Existing refrigerant leak detectors can also detect HFO-1234yf if it leaks. But HFO-1234yf is mildly flammable (though less so than HFC-152a), and long term toxicology tests are still underway. "
So how's that Honeywell/Dupont stock looking today?
Come on Obama, tear down that wall!!!!
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
Telestar,
thanks for speaking up when you did (some of us lurkers are making buying and selling decisions based on comments here).
all comments with reasoning and support appreciated (very much by me!)
vb
distribution at EOD
Noticed some serious distribution at end of day. BAC had massive volume with no price movement - GS, WFC, and some other banks at the same time period spiked up significantly. LEN also had huge volume with no movement, at a time when the SPX moved up 6 points.
Re: The Future of Capitalism
I heard on the radio today that in 2008 Texas created more jobs in Texas than were created in all other 49 states together in 2008,and was still one of only five states to slash taxes . If thats true thats the future of capitalism! No wonder the govener of Texas refused Tarp money and then spoke,even if only in jest of seceding from the Union.
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
I think 2nd made the right call even if it did lose some cash, it was gutsy anyway.
My own play was DB Jun 55 puts with stock at 58.13, looked really wrong until AH where it sits down 2.18% at 57.86; $DOW up 235 on the day but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
GOLD VS COMMODITY MONEY
ALOHA !!
You know it is intervention when the POG/POS is down on a big USDX down day yet all the commodity currencies are up strong. One big winner today was the AUD. The gold market is small compared to "managing" the FX.
As we have seen going back to the 1960s there is US FED and global central bank collusion to intervene on any market du jour and there are FOMC meeting minutes to prove it. It is not a question of if intervention exists but how much(volume) and how often(frequency)is this intervention? There are costs to the US FED for intervention and that too has been well documented going back over 30 years. As the achieved FOMC meeting minutes point out the US FED uses a tactic of least cost for most leverage. If they can influence the bond markets to do the heavy lifting for them then they will. Leverage on leverage on leverage ... only when the US FED loses, they have a printing press and no margin house calls to worry about. The ultimate MAFIA CASINO!
This is not "capitalism" at all ...
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
Chickenpookie,
There is a very long history of inventors with innovative and novel mechanisms for generating energy. YOu can google this and get page after page of documentation in these regards. Like clockwork, every year or so another viable invention pops briefly up, never to heard of again. The latest I heard earlier this year was in Austraila, where an inventor had made an magnetic motor that generates more than it requires to run. THis claim was vouchsafed by certified electrical engineers within Austrailia. The prototype had already been marketed and an investor found. The local news station did a in-depth TV piece that was still available on youtube. Then nothing is heard of again. Typical. Naysayers will claim that the machine must never have worked in the first place. Inventors say the goons show up with a gun in one hand and wad of cash in the other. Tough choic. Too many stories, in my opinion, for blanket dismissal.
If you really want evidence though:
In the area of health, there was the Rife saga that ended with a brilliant man's utter public distruction of credibility. His inventions were discounted widely as he claimed to develop frequency machinery that would disrupt the innate structure of pathogens leaving them harmless. The medical industry outlawed his experiments despite resounding success because they didnt understand what he was doing and were frightened by the prospect of thier own ignorance. The power structure recognized it as a potential game equalizer among the masses and buried every last piece of evidence that might realistically be utilized to replicate his work. Now, the university of Arizona is successfully experimenting with utilizing frequency generators for the destruction of viral capsids... ie, killing viruses with energy. It only took 3 or 4 generations for Rife's work to be recognized and perhaps embraced (we can only hope),and he still is not recognized as the inventor of this technology.
All that said, if you really want to get to the underlying unifying physics of these technologies, there is no better public source than Tom Bearden in my opinion. He has been around longer than anyone else I know. Be forewarned though, Bearden's materials are prolific, extremely well documented, and physics dense. Much of it is written for nuclear physicists and electrical engineers and can be very tedious to follow. NOt all of it is written for the graduate student however, and some of it should be required reading for every politician on the planet in my opinion... So they can no longer deny having heard of such things and are very clear with respect to the blood on their hands for complicity in repression.
http://tinyurl.com/4jg2w
For myself, everytime I've brought this subject up in an institutional environment, I have been soundly beaten by my superiors for impertinance, and roundly guestioned by my eager peers. The will and the technology exists, but those in control are not having of it....yet. As usual, we await the strength and vigor of a younger generation to initiate change against the will of the preceding generations that control. The curiousity of youth always recognizes truth despite social edict.
Re: Obama set to release
Thanks Chicken. I used to be in the HVAC trade and one location I worked at, we had Carrier compressors run by Solar turbines. Each machine held over 10,000lbs of R-12. I was on shift when a tube blew out and there went a big old hole in the ozone. They've been changed out to Electric drive York machines that use R-22. I believe R-22 is going to be phased out in 2020. It's getting near impossible to fix your own stuff.
I just bought a new steam washer and dryer (paid about 60% MSRP) and decided to add the 5 year extended warranty just because it is so hard to find reasonably priced parts. I do believe that is the first time in my life I've made a purchase for an extended warranty.
Re: The Future of Capitalism
ALOHA !!
Yes, why not secede? Once the welfare pumps run dry I would suspect there would be massive rejection of the Federal government. I know Hawaii would ... and I would support it.
It goes back to my analogy of the centralized tax revenue gauntlet. Why send all the State's tax revenues to Washington DC just to be pilfered by the massive special interests and foreign lobbies and the criminal pork games. Keep tax revenues local for those who earned it ... forget centralized government.
If the Feds can no longer contribute to State public works projects then there is no reason to remain a State. If the Feds no longer fund food stamps, unemployment or SS or MED then what reason is there to be a State? In other words, the US CONSTITUTION has been marginalized and turned into a CONSTITUTION based on DEBT and WELFARE bribes.
Unless you have ever participated in huge public works projects you can never understand the level of corruption. The States have been bought off like everything else in America. Take away the US GOVERNMENT checks and see whats left standing ... But hey, only one entity has the printing press and it is not Texas or any other State. The US GOVERNMENT/US FED is a MONEY MONOPOLY!
TO BIG TO WHAT? TOO BIG TO WORK!
Rally
I think this rally has more legs to the upside...I wouldn't be surprised to see it rise to 1050 or so. I can't ignore the fact that the 875 breakout level was retested and is now support. As such, I moved 33% of my 401k long only money into the market, in the emerging markets index. If there is a slight pullback tomorrow then I will consider moving another 17% in.
US DAILY BRIBES
ALOHA !!
The US TREASURY spent $148BIL USD on May 15th bribing States and foreign governments to keep the CASINO going one more day.
The OBAMA administration SPENT $148BIL in ONE DAY!
How much tax revenues did the US TREASURY take in on May 15th? $12.2BIL USD. A little short ... $135.8BIL USD short on May 15th.
Total spent so far FY 2009 is $7.588TRIL USD ... That dwarfs any OBAMA FY 2010 Budget of $3.6TRIL and we haven't even got past 2009 yet(four more months left)!
Interesting that on May 15th the US TREASURY accepted $2.8BIL USD from TARP deposits. So the banks are paying the TARP funds back! What a bunch of great guys ... How much have they paid back so far this FY 2009? $7.4BIL!!! How much have they taken so far in FY2009? $308.2BIL USD!! HEY BANKS ... you gotta long way to go to pay it all back! Step up the payments!! By the way on the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT there is no report of any interest paid by the banks on that $308.2BIL "loan". I guess the US TREASURY was satisfied with only toxic collateral. If the shoe were on the other foot would any US BANK forgo interest payments for risky collateral? Who's fooling who here? This is a complete and total 100% con job of the US TAXPAYERS! CHANGE YOU CAN'T COUNT ON!
LET THEM FAIL ...
inventions, tesla, earthquakes
On the topic of wacky inventions that sound improbable, I recall seeing a "mythbusters" episode where they tried to test one of the more interesting claims of big-time inventor Nikola Tesla - an 'earthquake machine." This test focused on his claim of constructing a resonance device which, set to the proper frequency, was claimed to be able to generate earthquakes. The mythbusters used an off the shelf "electromagnetic linear motor" welded to a plate to replicate the device, and attached it to a Bay Area bridge. An old, unused bridge, but - really, a bridge!
"To their surprise, they were able to get the entire bridge to start oscillating. Adam could feel the vibrations hundreds of feet and several supports away. Jamie compared the vibrations he was feeling to a big semitrailer truck cruising by. Jamie: "It actually makes a little concerned, believe it or not."
If memory serves, the motor was not large - perhaps 4 pounds. And this total hack job four pound motor welded to a plate got the entire bridge to vibrate!
http://kwc.org/mythbusters/2006/08/episode_60_eart...
Interestingly, they say the myth was "busted", but I think that giving time and money to an actual genius like Tesla, I would not be surprised if it really worked. Tesla, after all, was the inventor of alternating current. Our current civilization owes an astonishing amount to this guy.
One last point. Before coming to this site, who among us thought that
* the price of gold is consistently manipulated
* HB&B can manage the market if they so choose
* the financial media is largely owned and operated by HB&B
* the government is owned by HB&B
I sure didn't. If I talk about this sort of stuff to my friends, often they look at me as if I have one of those tinfoil hats on.
News is managed. Markets are managed. Yet we imagine that its only things that we know about, where not everything is as it appears?
Perhaps there are many fields where the flow of new disruptive technologies are managed also, especially when such things could at a stroke obsolete hundreds of billions of dollars of capital investment. If you are rich and powerful, do you really want your apple cart upset?
Something to think about.
WHAT STATES?
ALOHA !!
Oh please-e-e ... Timmy! Tell me you are not that big of an idiot? Every State public works job I have ever been on has had huge US GOVERNMENT funds pumped into it!
Yet Timmy says this about helping States during this recession crisis: "In recent testimony before Congress, Geithner said he would like to help, but he has yet to hear a good idea."END
Here is what else he said ... " Geithner, speaking at a luncheon at Newsweek magazine, said he is working closely with congressional leaders to find solutions, particularly for problems related to financing. Many states had deep structural problems before the financial crisis, which then became worse. As for any assistance, 'I wouldn't use the words 'bailout' or 'federal,'' Geithner said." END
Okay what is it you would call all those funds that you paid me to do electrical work on huge California prison projects all those years?
So the US TREASURY is now somehow a model for fiscal responsibility. Timmy says this: "'Of course, a lot of it will depend on how much confidence they (states) are able to engender in addressing their underlying fiscal problems,"END
Who spent $148BIL last Friday and only took in $12.2BIL in revenues?
So far $700BIL PLUS for insolvent banks and not $1 for insolvent States! Timmy who sends you those tax revenues you spend so freely on banks?
Here's a solution States ... secede! What's the US GOVERNMENT going to do occupy Texas?
Is this not just the most FISCAL insanity EVER?
Re: GOLD VS COMMODITY MONEY
Slowly I turn... step by step... inch by inch....
Re: inventions, tesla, earthquakes
"If I talk about this sort of stuff to my friends, often they look at me as if I have one of those tinfoil hats on."
Really? Most people I know are suspect, but don't understand the mechanisms very well.
Tesla - You're absolutely correct about his genius. I don't recall much about the why's of his earthquake experiment, but the subject and study of harmonics is of utmost importance to our daily lives.
Re: WHAT STATES?
Kaimu - Here's a solution States ... secede! What's the US GOVERNMENT going to do occupy Texas?
Two thoughts.
First - the US government doesn't like gold. What does it do? It does what is required to suppress the price. Now imagine losing a revenue source like Texas. What would it do? Almost assuredly the same thing.
Second - this very approach was attempted many years ago. Things got messy. It did not end well.
Perhaps we can imagine another approach?
Re: Rally
teamonfuego - I think this rally has more legs to the upside
Heh well since I'm short, that would be unfortunate for me. But most of the stocks I look at had low to average volume for today's rally. And the few that did show some volume, they did not close on their highs. Instead, they tapered off towards the end, and even with quite large volume showed no price movement, which says "distribution" to me.
I could be talking my book - or praying out loud about my book! - but MACD and volume are telling me we are more likely than not to go down more from here.
Still, "don't fight Goldman Sachs" may be the wiser course. Ah, who can say really?
Its such a casino these days.
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
I am hoping and praying that you are right about the villagers winning, but it could be at the end of a pitchfork. The once heavily industrialized community that i am on the outskirts of has seen enormous job losses and hardship and is on the edge, if the pitch forks come out i have a good idea of where and by whom these actions will take place, hoping that there is another solution but the lack of oppurtunity combined with the arrogance of others in positions of power and control may leave no other choice, one quote sticks in my mind " There are only so many policeman. "
Conspiracy theories
I listened to that Bilderberg interview with Estulin and the guy comes off as a total illiterate. I like a good conspiracy theory as much as the next person, but this one really takes the cake. How about listing all the members of this "evil" organisation? Mr. McGoo, Daffy Duck, Boris and Natasha, etc.? It reminds me of the trilateral commission. David Rockefeller was the badie in that one. Nowadays we don't hear much about it. Must have gotten nudged aside by Bilderberg.
Then there's the wacko invention list. Maybe these inventions didn't have much merit in the first place, just possibly?
Do people who responded positively to this topic honestly think that there is actually a cabal in the highest ranks of power that is intent on killing off 2/3's of the worlds population? This is insanity.
Re: WHAT STATES?
ALOHA !!
Ended badly?
here is a list of all the States involved in Secession attempts. Its a long list and the date vary from the 1800s to 2009.
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._state_se...
What I am saying is the only truly binding glue that now holds this Union together is the US GOVERNMENT and its printing press. States cannot print money. What will the States do when the US GOVERNMENT defaults on it s DEBT and quits funding States?
I am not sure what Timmy is thinking but he has no choice but to fund States directly or indirectly, unless he prefers riots ...
Re: inventions, tesla, earthquakes
Tesla = Pure Genius!
Re: Obama set to release
"It's getting near impossible to fix your own stuff."
Well maybe, but forget it if it's got anything to do with an HVAC refrigeration system using an environmentally destructive or hazardous refrigerant. I hope the new auto refrigerant is drop-in and available to the public, otherwise I'll have to procure the stuff illegally. In the case of HVAC, Regardless of whether or not you just need to replace a heating element relay, they control your ability to service the entire system in the name of saving the environment.
Washer/dryer parts are normally obtainable through FSP(Factory Service Parts) dealers.... Sears is the one I use most often. Even so, they often like to play games and will charge an arm and a leg only because they can, not necessarily because it's worth it.
We're a throw-away society, the average cradle-to-grave volume of waste is estimated at 7x for manufactured products.
Re: Rally
davefairtex - "Heh well since I'm short, that would be unfortunate for me. But most of the stocks I look at had low to average volume for today's rally. And the few that did show some volume, they did not close on their highs."
I'm thinking HB&B are working to kill shorts and this will require killing some longs as well. Just who were HB&B's enemy today?
An idea for the Entrepreneur?
With the shutdown of 25% of auto dealers, their parts inventory will be up for grabs... Now I know a few hard working people that buy and sell auto parts at swap meets/EBAY and seem to make some coin... Since these auto dealers are going to be dumping their parts and possibly diagnostic equipment on the market, there may be some opportunities...?
Re: Rally
dave - i don't think you can read too much into any one single day any more. plus, the volume has been low for much of this move which says to me that there are still tons of people that are skeptical which means to me its probably going to continue its trend.
Re: Conspiracy theories
LoL... it was a life of studying these tinfoil hatters that led me to the cara community in the first place. My life for at least the past 12 years was designed so that I would be exactly in the position I am in during the political and economic turmoil we are now witnessing. My friends thought I was a true nut-job when I spoke of what was in store as recently as 3 or 4 years ago. Now they are calling me to ask about investments.... that should make all of you laugh! Me giving out investment advice...HA!
How did I know? How could I have predicted? Easy enough. Im a sociologist at heart. I just kept reading the white papers out of the elitist cess-pool's stable of thinkers. There is a long history of very well-documented journalism on this subject, and some of the most interesting pieces are sponsored by the plotters themselves.
I am where I am now because I did take implausible claimants at their word. I looked behind the words at the actions and intentions around me. I came to cara to find out, on the street level exactly how the economics worked that could change the world as they intended. And boy has this been a great front-row, day-to-day seat for this collosal show. Thanks everyone.
The world will be fine. We just have to learn to be fine in it.... together.
Sincerely,
Re: Estulin comments on Bilderberg meet.
MtnGntx - "In the area of health, there was the Rife saga that ended with a brilliant man's utter public distruction of credibility. His inventions were discounted widely as he claimed to develop frequency machinery that would disrupt the innate structure of pathogens leaving them harmless."
I certainly wasn't doubting you, I can think of a few examples myself. A friend of mine was working on an RF torch which he claimed could be used to rearrange molecules in a species of gasses and when tuned properly, generate a specific molecule. Last I heard, he was trying to get funding.
Edit: I found info on his patent:
http://www.wikipatents.com/7375035.html
Then of course there are some people who try to sell the perpetual motion machine... Listen folks, there just isn't such a thing. Nature prefers a low level of energy, so in order to perform work, the potential energy is transferred, period, a fact of life. The laws of physics apply to the entire universe just as they apply to your portfolio. %Efficiency = power out/ power in *100, our national power grid is about 50% inefficient.
Proper due diligence is required, and can be next to impossible. All the standard disclaimers apply absolutely and without exception.
?
While I was in transit today what happen did the bears take a nap? Volume surely wasn't there. Time for 2 things.
1)As stock market rallies, insiders sell, TrimTabs warns
Increase in shares outstanding last week was biggest this decade, firm says.
"The message the 'house' is sending is clear -- investors should get out of the stock market," the firm concluded."
http://tinyurl.com/prm9ot
2)One chart [Deleted...sorry need to fix error]
[Be away till this weekend]
Re: Rally
teamonfuego - the volume has been low for much of this move which says to me that there are still tons of people that are skeptical which means to me its probably going to continue its trend.
You could be right. What do I have going for me indicating we have a trend reversal? RSI dropping below 70, plus an MACD rollover. We know how well that worked a few weeks back. Plus the low volume rallies. Maybe the more prudent thing to do would be to stand aside and watch.
CP - I'm thinking HB&B are working to kill shorts and this will require killing some longs as well. Just who were HB&B's enemy today?
From where I sit, I totally agree. In the REIT stocks, they seem to bounce up and down 8% every few days. Really big moves, both trending up, and trending down as well. The goal as I see it is planned volatility within a pre-determined range. Longs get bounced, shorts get bounced, and HB&B makes money. Serious "Billy Ball" territory.
On Friday I saw them spike the price up above the prior day's high right at the open, just to trigger stops, on every single stock I had short. I got caught on one of them. The price immediately dropped back down. Its a tough environment out there to short. Today it felt like they were hunting people who went short Friday after the lame short-covering morning rally.
Luckily I kept most of my powder dry on Friday, but I definitely jumped in today about mid-day. I'm probably taking too much risk in this environment. We will see how tomorrow goes.
Re: The Future of Capitalism
A few years ago I read "Independently Wealthy" by Dr.Robert Goodman who at that time said he thought the biggest economic danger we would see is deflation. He said at that time (Wow, 1996 — I just looked it up.) the danger was that no body would recognize it because most of us have lived only during inflationary times in the US.
I suppose time was always important, but the speed today makes even tougher to get it right.
Re: inventions, tesla, earthquakes
"If I talk about this sort of stuff to my friends, often they look at me as if I have one of those tinfoil hats on."
I know what you mean, they may even be estimating what size straight jacket will fit me.
I think there was a whole show devoted to Tesla on the History Channel recently as well. If I remember right his earthquake machine went a little wild once and shook the entire building.
Today I get the same effect driving on our pot hole infected streets :-) I thought my car needed new struts, but the mechanic told me they are just fine.
Re: ?
Bev,
I am really not sure of what to make of insider sales. This year companies are compensating more in absolute numbers in terms of stocks & options, since bonuses and other compensations are down (also stocks are cheaply priced). So it could very well be that most are clearing out their old accumulation, since they are going to get a huge bunch coming their way anyway....
Re: Obama set to release
"We're a throw-away society, the average cradle-to-grave volume of waste is estimated at 7x for manufactured products."
I good start at cleaning up the environment is to stop producing so much plastic. There are acres of plastic trash floating in mid Pacific hundreds of mils from land. I find it blowing around my yard each time I mow. Nearly all retail stores are quick to put your purchases in a plastic bag.
I keep thinking of the scene in "The Graduate" when the guy takes Dustin Hoffman aside and says, "Plastic."
Re: Rally
Davfairtex,
I am taking to much risk (differently), but I have two stops to limit my downside.
I cannot day trade at present making it that much more difficult.
I have some SRS from Friday...was doing OK...I forgot about an older limit order and bought more than I needed.
I entered a bracket order to sell the SRS at 19 and buy to close at 20.05 for the 1 SAK RD that has went against me. I am wanting to see lousy home starts tomorrow and maybe I will have a better day.
I also got stopped out of SMN,SDS,QID,SKF
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
"(some of us lurkers are making buying and selling decisions based on comments here). all comments with reasoning and support appreciated (very much by me!)"
vb- I try to exercise good judgment when posting/censoring my trades.
(a) In general, I will make fewer posts than trades, to avoid clutter.
(b) When posting trades (especially while at the day job), I don't have time to include much (if any) reasoning. Prices move fast, and often 'reasoning' gets in the way of instinct. In other cases, the trade may well be over by the time I get around to posting anything. You can usually tell where I'm coming from by reading my pre-market/after hours posts.
(c) I can't afford to let the thought that someone might be buying/selling based on my posts get in the way, and I don't. I don't think any of us do. So to the extent I censor my trades, it has nothing to do with what I think someone may make of it (who am I to make that call anyway), and everything to do with how much time I have to post/whether it's even worth posting what will most likely be a 5-10 minute trade.
(d) I find that posting my trades sharpens my focus, in much the same way performing in front of an audience does. It removes the 'rehearsal' aspect, and forces me to assume full responsibility for entries and exits.
rally
March rally started with a leaked citi memo. Today GS is upgrading BAC & others citing Q2 earnings to be good. Is this start of another run?
What happen today is because of
2nd
What happen today is because of
India, a key player in globalized trade
Warren Buffett -- U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo
Retail shares Because of Lowe’s
And lots of naysayers who believe that share prices are overdue for a pullback!!!! Someday? but it is getting hard for them to beat a good market down. One week of declines and the buyers stepped in and bought pullbacks. I must say, most here are bearish and are finding such article and hoping/wishing that market goes down. Unless we play we can’t win. We must play with eye on capital preservation
Golden Coffins
This is the first I've heard of Golden Coffins
"Instead of pay-for-performance, such golden coffin provisions are simply 'pay-for-no-pulse.'" LOL.
http://tinyurl.com/pn2l9o
XTO 'golden coffins' under attack
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - XTO Energy is under attack from an activist investor ahead of the oil company's annual meeting Tuesday for provisions in its executive compensation contracts that allow for so-called "golden coffins" for its chairman and chief executive.
The LongView Funds, a corporate governance focused investment firm owned by Amalgamated Bank, is proposing that XTO's board of directors get shareholder approval for agreements that award unearned salary, bonuses and other compensation to executives if they die.
XTO has an employment agreement with Chairman Bob Simpson that would award his heirs or estate a lump sum equal to three times his annual salary and bonus if he dies.
Simpson was paid a $1.63 million salary and got a $30 million bonus for 2008, according to the company's latest proxy statement, so this golden coffin is worth more than $90 million. A similar agreement applies to Chief Executive Keith Hutton.
The golden coffins also include all options, performance shares and other equity-based awards, which become fully vested if the executives die. The performance targets on those awards would be waived too, unless XTO's compensation committee approves exceptions when the grants are made, according to the proxy.
Golden coffins like these are under attack from corporate governance activists and some shareholders because they argue the agreements loosen ties between executive compensation and performance. Several companies have stopped using them. See 'Pay Dirt' a MarketWatch Special Report.
"We are concerned that XTO has committed to make costly payments to executives at the moment when investors no longer receive any services or performance in return," Con Hitchcock, outside counsel to Amalgamated Bank, said in a statement. "Instead of pay-for-performance, such golden coffin provisions are simply 'pay-for-no-pulse.'"
"Our proposal, if adopted, would encourage restraint in future agreements and allow shareholders oversight," added Scott Zdrazil, director of corporate governance at Amalgamated Bank.
XTO advised shareholders to vote against the proposal in its proxy. The energy company said golden coffin agreements it has with three executives were struck without shareholder approval and can't be changed without permission from those executives.
XTO also noted that the golden coffins are part of its overall long-term compensation program for the executives. The company also said it's "somewhat unique" in that it doesn't provide defined benefit pension plans, supplemental retirement plans or deferred compensation plan to its executives.
XTO also argued that golden coffins promote more long-term strategic thinking by executives. "Providing benefits payable upon the death of executives is the ultimate form of long-term incentives," it said in its proxy.
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
Posting of a trade is for education purpose to know and learn what other are doing and how, and learn how it turns out.
It is no way a recommendation to buy or sell. to copycat a trade is a sure way to lose
XLF/SKF plan
I didn't buy any SKF today, even though it had a nice pullback. My thinking was that XLF either resumes its downtrend tomorrow, which is fine with me, or it breaks above its recent high at $13. Last year, the rally that started in March ended only after a double top in May, with the second spike higher than the first (so as to take out early shorts who placed a stop order at the top of the first peak). Since at this point I have a slight short bias in my portfolio, I don't want to just blindly keep increasing shorts as the market keeps moving up, and instead I will wait for XLF to rise above $13 and then cross $13 on the way down.
Re: What happen today is because of
Vinod- I'm having a hard time going long right now for the same reason I had a hard time going short at 7000. I need to find a way to disconnect my directional bias (ie, thinking it's run too far too fast to consider going long) if I'm going to play the extremes successfully.
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
Hi 2nd,
I appreciate your posts too! The thing that makes this blog work is everyone sharing their viewpoints.
I have noticed the sentiment of this blog has been more one sided lately. Gloom and doom and the market is going to fall.
There is an opposite side. I have a subscription to Bob Brinker's marketimer. $180.00 year. Comparing his newsletter with this blog is like comparing a republican with a democrat. -- His May 5th letter says "we continue to rate the stock market attractive for purchase during periods of weakness". In other words, buy on dips this market is going up.
Don't worry, I didn't follow you into SRS today. I bought something called TYP last week. (against my hunch but more as a hedge). I sold it before close today at a 100.00 loss.
I listen to all sides and make my final decision. I am not a copy cat trader. LOL. Sometimes I agree with what you are trading and end up buying the same. :)
On another note, a client just left my office and told me her parents who are visting here from China are having trouble getting out of the usa due to the swine flu. She went on to say the numbers of swine flu here are much higher than reported - 100,000.
vb
Re: SRS @ 21.52/ off @ 20.91
Vinod- I appreciate those who take the time to post their trades and/or explain their reasoning. Like 2nd, I also don't post any were near the trades I make for the same reason. Frankly, I'm posting trades a lot less lately as most are so short in duration. It's helpful to have extra "eyes" out there though. Some times someone will post a trade that I have been looking at and this will "remind" me.
Speaking of trades... My plan today was to add to the 1/3 position I have left in the NGas group. I was looking to add if SPX help support, but all of my positions (PXP, HK, DVN, CHK, XTO, UNG) shot up so quickly I didn't want to chase. Hindsight for now appears that was a mistake.
My only other "real" play is the miners, which are still nicely green, but today's action was poor at best.
TOF- Took off the 2nd half on my SPNG today. I will keep and eye on it though, thanks for the work.
FASB Rule Will Force Banks to Move Assets ($900B) onto Books
This article was easily visible on my train ride home on Bloomberg. Since then it is impossible to find. But the link still works as of 9:03pm EST. I am attaching a hi-res screen shot just in case they pull it, along with the text.
http://tinyurl.com/qmdtew
FASB Rule Will Force Banks to Move Assets Onto Books (Update1)
By Ian Katz
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will be required starting next year to add billions of dollars of assets and liabilities to their balance sheets under rules approved by the Financial Accounting Standards Board.
The rules, effective for annual reporting periods after Nov. 15, were approved by FASB’s five-member board today during a meeting at the panel’s headquarters in Norwalk, Connecticut. The board, which writes U.S. accounting rules, is overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Lenders recorded profits before the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007 by selling pooled loans to off-balance- sheet trusts, which repackaged the pools into mortgage-backed securities. Banks then sold those securities to other off- balance-sheet vehicles they sponsored, concealing from investors that the securities were backed by deteriorating mortgages.
“The desire to provide additional transparency to investors was the key driver behind today’s decisions,” FASB spokesman Neal McGarity said in an e-mail.
U.S. regulators said the 19 lenders subjected to stress tests completed this month would have to bring about $900 billion of assets onto their balance sheets because of the FASB changes, according to a Federal Reserve report released April 24. The Fed based its calculation on data provided by the banks.
“This change may have a significant impact on Citigroup’s consolidated financial statements as the company may lose sales treatment for certain assets,” Citigroup said in its annual report released in February. Citigroup spokesman Jon Diat declined to comment.
JPMorgan
In March, JPMorgan estimated in its annual report that the “impact of consolidation” could be as much as $70 billion of credit card receivables, $40 billion of assets related to so- called conduits and $50 billion of other loans, including residential mortgages. Conduits are off-balance-sheet entities that purchase long-term debt and use those securities as collateral to sell short-term debt. JPMorgan spokesman Brian Marchiony declined to comment.
The rule change will hurt banks and the economy by discouraging lending, said Wayne Abernathy , executive vice president at the American Bankers Association in Washington. “It will affect fee income and the economy’s ability to rebound on the lending side,” he said in an interview before the vote.
The FASB vote today eliminates the so-called Qualifying Special Purpose Entity, a type of trust that was exempt from balance-sheet treatment.
Postponed
In July, FASB postponed by at least a year the effective date of the changes after banks and trade groups complained. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and the American Securitization Forum said the measure may make companies appear to be short of capital during regulatory reviews.
Investors are wary of a company’s unknown obligations as the world’s biggest banks and brokerages reported more than $1.4 trillion in writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007, some stemming from losses in off-balance-sheet vehicles.
Interesting (Funny?) weekend.
The following is ALL true...
It was very hot here yesterday, and as the day wore on, a lot of our friends and their kids came buy to go swimming. As I sat by the pool finishing "Den Of Theives", all of the parents were talking about their plans for new windows, appliances, cars, summer trips, etc. Not one word about the economy, work problems, or home values. Most of these people are squarely middle class, have "lost" money on their homes etc. It all seemed a little surreal, but these are the consumers everyone is worried about. Someone finally asked if the book I was reading would be a good "beach book". "Probably not", I said.
Re: Interesting (Funny?) weekend.
Mark,
I was at Valley Fair Shopping center in San Jose on Sunday. The mall was so packed I had to park on the roof. Went to lululemon and the clerk said the new cropped leggings just arrived and they only had 2 pair left on the shelf. they were "flying out the door" - these are basically exercise shorts with a healthy price of 89.00 each.
Nordstroms rack in palo alto had a grand opening and there must have been 1000 people in line to get in.
The malls are packed every day every weekend - unlike december before xmas.
VB
Potential shakeout patterns awaiting a column of X's for signal
https://share.acrobat.com/adc/adc.do?docid=2f96243...
Re: Interesting (Funny?) weekend.
VB-"The mall was so packed I had to park on the roof." I'll need a photo for THAT!! It's funny, our fridge and oven are basically broken and I refuse to replace them. I just wonder if I'm too "close" to the issue, if that makes sense.
$89.00 for exercise shorts? Those baby's better do the work FOR you! GL
Re: Interesting (Funny?) weekend.
$89.00 for exercise shorts? Those baby's better do the work FOR you! GL
haha they aren't bad Mark. Probably should buying their stock instead of shorting tech stocks. (what got into me???)
lululemon phenomenon
http://shop.lululemon.com/women_crops/pl/c/570.html
Cara Asia-Pacific 100
Is the Cara Asia-Pacific 100 available for the community to view?
Thanks
Re: What happen today is because of
2nd
I will not be surprise if Meredith is on CNBC tomorrow. i have seen this game played before.
The key tell over the
The key tell over the short-term (i.e. this week) will be whether we take out the recent highs (like S&P 929) or break through the recent recovery lows (S&P 882). I’ve also said that it will be very important for the market to hold above its 20 day moving average which hasn’t been violated once during the rally since March 9th:
If we take out and sustain a breakout above recent highs, the market would have passed its first significant test since the rally began. Likewise, if we see another rollover and breakdown through the recent lows and break that 20 day moving average, it would be a clue that the rally is finished and we’re entering a sideways trading range (at best) or setting up a retest of the March lows (at worst). Excluding the sizable potential for false whipsaws at both the recent highs and lows, sometimes it really is that simple. Remember, pullbacks that get bought and see new recovery highs are positive while pullbacks that see dead cat bounces and subsequent rollovers are not. That’s why how the market handles this pullback is so important as it gives us the best clue of the sustainability of the advance from the March 9th low.
The Kirk Report
Patents and Inventions
Just a reminder to all.
I see alot of comments today on new ideas & inventions, which have been patented.
Patents are often used by promoters to solidify and justify their claims. However virtually anyone can obtain a patent for anything, as long as they pay the fee, submit the proper forms and it hasn't been previously claimed. The patent office has no interest in verifying the concept or actual performance, ie; it doesn't have to work to get a patent, but it sure looks good to have a patent and "it appears to imply" authentication.
From a person who has worked in High Tech for 30 years and seen just about everything, even stupid things patented. Please do your own DD.
Re: The key tell over the
Vinod, 20d EMA was resistance line from Oct 08, from March 09 it has become support line for most of the stocks & indices i am tracking.... Interesting, if we had only traded based on that, we could have made enough coins for the year :)
Total of 16 nyc schools now shut down for H1N1 concerns
http://tinyurl.com/qlxju8
"We continue to see a rising tide of flu in many parts of New York City," said outgoing New York City Health Commissioner Thomas R. Frieden. "As the virus spreads, we will look to slow transmission within individual school communities by closing individual schools. We fully expect to see more severe illness in the coming days."
HD & Lowes
Nice article
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/business/19depot...
mortgage fraud results in 99 year prison term
In a recent case that even raised the eyebrows of a spokesman for the Texas attorney general's office, a woman in the Lone Star State was sentenced to 99 years in prison for mortgage fraud.
According to the Texas AG's office, Marriott's 99-year prison sentence was ultimately due to the constant and malicious nature of the crimes, which primarily targeted low-income victims, and the prerogative of the Texas judicial system. "Every little thing was a felony and things piled up," said Mr. Glickler. "She committed felonies like we breathe air."
http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/lead_story/?st...
Now that's Texas Justice.
Re: mortgage fraud results in 99 year prison term
Looks like they deserved to have the book thrown at them.
I've heard of these two. They seem to be a notorious case.
You can see the scammers running for the texas borders to escape the eventual and real possibility of a sentence like that.
Justice indeed.
Who was suggesting the suppression of new technology?
http://www.evme.com.au/
http://www.csiro.au/science/Ultra-Battery.html
Look at these two sites. The pollution free technology is here, now.
And what are these wallies in Detroit moaning about being able to produce hybrids or less polluting oil driven cars in a few years time, maybe?
That car is being built in a country town in Australia. Is Detroit knocking on their door for the license? fat chance.
Advanced lead battery technology - Australian designed! I love the CSIRO.
Wonder where the oil companies are in all of this? Implicated in a little skulduggery I have no doubt.
I was listening to an analyst give electric cars ten years to begin replacing petrol. You guys stateside, with your nuke plants, this would be ideal. Soon time to start placing bets on a new generation of transport and energy systems to deliver the electricity.
Re: Who was suggesting the suppression of new technology?
ALOHA !!
Les ... I agree Detroit and the US automakers are just about UNIONS and not much else. When was the last time the UAW invented something? So now that the UAW will own GM I can't wait to see their "business model"! I guess they will have a tough time negotiating competitive labor contracts with themselves!
If you read the Ultra Battery via CSIRO is partnered with one of the biggest mining companies in the World ... BHP Billiton. Here in America the environmental lobby will be all over the lead and acid stuff!
The oil companies own every square centimeter of the Evme ... what isn't made of oil products?
You know the Australian government seems to be way more small business and innovation friendly than the US government. Government money is even used to drill exploration holes for oil and resource juniors. Government in the USA seems to be the enemy of small business. I guarantee there will not be any "innovation" coming out of JP MORGAN unless you need innovative ways to defraud people.
Hummmm???
Do you think that's whats driving the rise in the AUD today? HA!!
Spilt Milk
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/05/spilt-milk.html
Re: FASB Rule Will Force Banks to Move Assets ($900B) onto Books
NYUgrad,
Maybe. It would be nice to believe we can have rules enforced, but...
FASB allowed banks to value their own worthless assets imaginatively, the stress test was a farce...
Obama said (pre-election) he was going put a stop to stop pork. Then the biggest, ever spending bill passed without being read and reportedly had around 8,000 pork projects glued on. Hi comment was, "This will be the end of business as usual."
It's a bit like saying, "OK, from here on we will enforce the infield fly rile." (right after the World Series last game)
Well, see. Then again, they may simply enforce this rule and alter something else.
Re: Interesting (Funny?) weekend.
Mark, Vanilla,
Interesting reports. Where do you live, Mark?
I would guess that while middle class they are:
1. Still working at good, full time jobs.
2. Young enough to and with enough of a financial cushion to seek work elsewhere.
3. Have very few friends or relatives who have lost their jobs, benefits and are living on their savings or 401(k).
Also, it is possible they would not admit openly (or even to themselves) if they were in trouble.
My picture is colored by a long down time in manufacturing belt. It is difficult to believe it is not the norm across the country. (At least not yet.)
Re: mortgage fraud results in 99 year prison term
I love it!
I hope she has to serve at least half of it :-)
The guy who burglarized our house (and 49 others) was sentenced to 12 years and was out in less than three (and back to work) — they needed the room for pot smokers I guess.
Re: Who was suggesting the suppression of new technology?
"I was listening to an analyst give electric cars ten years to begin replacing petrol. You guys stateside, with your nuke plants, this would be ideal. Soon time to start placing bets on a new generation of transport and energy systems to deliver the electricity."
Les,
There is no question we could have electric transportation if unobstructed.
My mother had an aunt who drove an electric car before WWI. (Yes, WW One!)
If not for our superb lobbying system of government we would have begun a massive changeover immediately after the 1970s "oil crisis". My first priority was to add a monorail passenger rail service built on the Interstate Highway System median strip. Minimal additional land usage, eco-friendly, jobs producing, life-saving...
My congressman said people would not give up the individual control autos provide. Individual control is what lobbyists provide — to big oil and autos.
Re: Interesting (Funny?) weekend.
I think you need a change of locale Grym. You seem surrounded by doom and gloom. Things on the coasts aren't as bad as in the rust belt, maybe pack up the wagon and move to Beverly. Hills that is, swimming pools, movie stars...
That midwest thing is dragging me down. I have a deck to build and windows to install.
It would be really wonderful to read one of your posts with some good news.
The sun is coming up today and the birds are optimistic. Give it a shot!
Do you know a positive attitude is contagious? Give it to your friends, family and neighbors!
Re: Interesting (Funny?) weekend.
No way I'm going to move. The house is paid for.
Like it or not, the real estate here is too depressed for those who must move to find work (two couples whose property is adjacent to ours) are having a tough time. Lot's of lookers, and even an offer at the first open house, but prospective buyers must sell their present house first.
Besides, I sincerely believe there is nowhere to hide. This is worse than swine flu — it's an economic pandemic.
Sure their are things to be thankful for: both my wife and I are OK as long as the meds are faithfully used. One son is recuperating from a recent illness and it looks promising. But who comes here for that info?
This is basically a market and economic oriented site. In my opinion what we have experienced for a decade or more has been rapidly spreading nation wide and globally as well. Sure it gets a bit of a downer, but if I had known just how bad things might get perhaps I would have prepared better ahead of time.
This down economy is an insidious calamity and it has gotten far worse here even when we thought it couldn't. City, state and federal gov. all are having budget shortfalls and our taxes are rising after having been quite flat for about five or six years.
Good news on the economic front?
Well, Obama will possibly be a one-term disaster like Carter.
When the rest of the country gets as depressed (mentally as well as economically) we may get some sort of political change for the better which is not just a belief, but actual.
It is sunny and in the high 70s and I just came in from gardening. This week I'll be painting a bedroom and repairing the garage ceiling. Life doesn't come to a standstill, but pretending this kind of change in our country is not bad is not an option. My attitude is very pissed off at those who caused this turmoil and are continuing to run the scam.
I plan to continue stirring the pot as much as I can.
Kaimu is one of the few who seems to realize how totally life changing this is.
AS Woody Allen once said, "What we have here is a complete situation." :-)