[7:24am ET] Control of the United States government is, as the people know, in the hands of a relatively few people. Has been and will likely continue to be. The problem is that the People’s Choice, the person elected President, is just one of those people, the spokesperson or talking head if you will. The issue is, now that the people have discovered the truth, what can they do about it? Are they about to discover, as many of us know, that America is not the Land of the Free?
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11332246
I raise this point today because the Wall Street Journal is questioning the ties between Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) leader Goldman Sachs.
New York Fed Chairman Stephen Friedman's ties to Goldman Sachs started raising questions once the firm became a bank holding company.
The case illustrates what a tangle of overlapping interests can arise at a hybrid institution like the New York Federal Reserve Bank, especially as the U.S. government, in addressing the financial and economic turmoil, grows ever more deeply enmeshed in American business and banking.
On the surface, the matter may seem to be about Geithner’s and Friedman’s working relationship, but is actually one about the Goldman Sachs’ all-powerful network, and how they use government as a means to their ends. This ought to come as no surprise because we in this blog have discussed this topic as much as probably any, other than maybe gold, over the past five years.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124139546243981801.html
America is at a crossroads, I feel. The people must decide if, in fact, they want Goldman Sachs to continue holding the position of power in their once great nation.
Required reading material:
Timothy Geithner
http://www.whorunsgov.com/Profiles/Timothy_Geithner
Stephen Friedman
http://www.whorunsgov.com/Profiles/Stephen_Friedman
Comments
http://tinyurl.com/crxdjg Int
http://tinyurl.com/crxdjg
Interesting NY times article on topic of too much power....
GoldmanS. Undue Influence
It is absolutely crucial, that this Country bares the wretched liason between these two so called "civil servants" who run interference for HB&B and the moneyed elite. As has been pointed out by Bill and this community countless times before, this nation will never retain it's Greatness so long as the Bankers (FED and other Central bankers as well) control
policy for the benefit of the few. Unfortunately it seems Obama has bought into this groups agenda hook, line, and sinker!
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning. A couple of Downgrades to start the week:
ADBE - to Neutral @ UBS
ADBE - to Hold @ Citigroup
what type of recovery should we expect L, U, or V?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
has a plausible answer. Summarized in the opening sentence:
"Post-recession America may be saddled with high unemployment even after good times finally return."
IMF chief economist
I refer once again to an article in the Atlantic by the former chief economist at the IMF, Simon Johnson. When 3rd world countries came to the bank for help and advice, when their economies tanked, the root cause was always the same - a too close relationship between the government and the banking industry.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
Land of the Free?
I'm reposting what I had just written on the Friday Chat due to Bill's comment today.
---------------
Re: A DUH MOMENT new
Submitted by Grym (587 comments) on Mon, 05/04/2009 - 08:11 #25946 (in reply to #25936)
About a year ago Peter Schiff pointed out that if Social Security and other "entitlements" were to paid as debit cards the government could impose expiration dates to control the rate of spending.
I feel like I'm living in a totally Huxley/Orwell kind of novel.
Where is the Home of the Free and Land of the Brave? Just another bit of fiction to be replaced by serial erosion of ideals?
My 90-yr-old friend, Ken, informed me last week that he and his wife lost enough of their savings to put them on welfare within a little more than a year.
He's a WWII vet and retired electrical engineer.
Re: banking ruling the goverment
The change will take a lot of time and suffering. The country has to go through a lost generation hardship before people will see the abuse of power by rich and powerful. At some point bankers and economists with their pseudoscience will be discredited as say communists and Marxism are now.
Question, how do you force a young child to brush their teeth?
Answer, you don't, you just offer a choice of 2 toothbrushes (2 colors).
Same happened with pres elections. People felt it was their choice of color, but did not see that both choices were paid for by HB&B.
For HB&B it's no brainer. Invest a few $M in the process, rake free $B later.
cameco and china
May 2nd Globe and Mail says Cameco is in talks with Chinese officials re a lont term supply contract, I have tried to fond the article on the internet to link..no luck yet.
spoke to soon
Here is cameco link
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM...
Which is more boring?
1) Doing math homework
2) Cleaning out the garage
3) Listening to an interview with Warren Buffett
Next train...
So 2nd...is there going to be another train? :>)
Or...does this one back out of the station?
Newbie Gold question
On Friday end of day according to my TD Waterhouse charts,
OSK-T Osisko Mining Corp was hit with a touch of volume and jumped to 13.39 and closed at 5.60
K-T Kinross jumpted to 59.18 and closed at 18.38
When I think I am just starting to grasp volume versus price etc. something like this happens and I am back reading chapter one. Can someone shed a bit a light on this for me ?
P.S. Thank you for all the comments on HNU-T, I can see the gathering !!!
TZA- scaling in @ 28.46
Craig- I'm in capital preservation mode.
SRS- 24.25
Keeping positions small.
Cara 100 Update
CCJ - Downgraded to Neutral @ Credit Suisse
NGas pulling back
...
i am not a bull or bear..markets seam strong
I shouldn't and won't fight the trend. All the worst possible "potential" news, even that 14+ banks may need to raise captial is out and yet the markets are not tanking. Pretty amazing.
Will stay nimble.
What i am learning through observation on MACD
MACD is a pretty reliable indicator, but when prices are consolidating (sideways) it gives a lot of false signals.
strong seams? not this market.
Sometimes the unintentional typo says it all.
Innocent until proven guilty?
WAS an accepted tenet of our American democracy. Apparently no more.
President Obama now wants to put "the burden of proof" on those supposedly using international tax havens.
So those "suspected" of using tax havens have to "prove" innocence?
Is it just me, or didn't it used to be the burden of proof was on the government to prove guilt?
I'm all for fairness and accountability, but HOW we get fairness has to be LAWFUL and FAIR.
TBT
Been in and out a few times. If we correct, I assume there is a good chance we'll get another flight to bonds. So if the market does correct, so will the TBT price. Or, do we think a market correction will not effect bond holders from selling their risk of higher yields & lower price?
Re: NGas pulling back/ dip was quickly bought
...
Re: NGas pulling back/ dip was quickly bought
2nd, there is/was a move in USO too. And take a gander at TCK.....
Real stuff is moving....traders cashing in their $usd for something real.
Cara 100 Update
more on ADBE - downgraded at UBS from Buy to Neutral. $28 price target. While field checks suggest that sales have stabilized, the company will likely not post large upside to quarterly results next month.
INTC - upgraded at Morgan Stanley from Equal-weight to Overweight. $19 price target. Stocks still looks attractively valued based on EV/sales. Consensus earnings estimates also appear too low.
INTC - target boosted at UBS to $18. Expect a sharp gross margin recovery in the second half of the year. Buy rating.
RIMM - price target raised at Goldman to $85 from $82 based on higher smartphone market unit growth. Expect upward estimate revisions and multiple expansion as smartphone demand increases, RIMM gains market share, and handset market bottoms. Maintained Buy rating.
TGT - estimates, target raised at Barclays. Shares now seen reaching $48. Estimates increased, given improved sales trends and solid expense controls. Overweight rating.
TGT - Downgraded at Merrill/BofA to Underperform. $32 price target. Company will likely see negative comp sales for some time. Square footage growth is also slowing and new store productivity has been weak.
Re: NGas pulling back/ dip was quickly bought
All that money coming out of financials has to go somewhere.
Re: NGas pulling back/ dip was quickly bought
Craig, 2nd-"Real stuff is moving....traders cashing in their $usd for something real." Agreed. Had the chance to talk with a lot of my clients this weekend. I expect a rotation out of the high bets stocks and into the large cap materials, industrials etc. X+3B also had an interesting thought...No one is admitting to buying into the rally but he thinks they are. He also thinks a 6-7% pull back will be bought heavily. After that, not sure.
weird disparity
tween gold spot and future
bull for now
I'm still a bear but continuing long the dow and S&P indexes.
long yamana 8.29
long yamana 8.29
SRS- adding @ 23.53
...
gold +20
Unbelieveable.
there goes gold...
+ 15
edit: Dave, one of us needs to learn to count :)
good morning all.
Closed it out AUY at 8.41 and
Closed it out AUY at 8.41 and yes Iknow I probably sold 2 early:)
OCLS
OCLS reports significant sales increases.... Gee, no insider trading here! +12% today.
Re: SRS- adding @ 23.53/ off @ 24.05
Still holding the 24.25...
For the IT people in this crowd
Had a problem with IB today. I added a layer of security when I created the account by restricting IP access to this computer's address only.
Today and for the first time the login screen refused access - says the IP address is not valid.
Do ISP's assign random IP numbers to cable clients? I would have thought not, because I've been accessing IB for several weeks with no difficulties. Why would IB permit such a layer of security if ISP's assign random addresses?
I would advise anyone opening an IB account to not restrict IP address access as canceling this restriction takes 24 hours to clear. As soon as the account is open, request a security card instead. (Had problems with IB about the security card as well). IB is starting to look a bit shabby tech wise. The service is otherwise good.
Am I assigned a random IP address? I'm wondering if someone has pulled a shifty on me...
On the sidelines today.
Waiting to potentially
Waiting to potentially re-load AUY
Re: TZA- scaling in @ 28.46/ off @ 28.44
Flat
Re: SRS- 24.25/out @ 24.07
That was out, not odd. Definitely not add ;)
Lack of volume in market
Bill's comments over the past few days regarding a lack of volume in the markets were quite interesting. Many professional market participants are taking a wait-and-see approach, for various reasons.
Maybe they don't trust the govt. or their policies (imagine that), maybe they were burned buying prematurely into the huge decline over the last few months, or maybe they want to see the market prove itself by getting over certain price thresholds before committing client money.
In a previous post back on 3-25-09, I made some comments regarding the lack of volume. ( Re: that one-day wonder rally . . . )
What I think could happen is that the market makes an overwhelming up move where it has a 2-3 day surge with huge volume, possibly taking the $SPX up another 10%; up to the 200 DMA and maybe hitting the 975 area.
I have nothing fundamental to back this opinion up other than the way the $SPX chart looks to me and my gauge of market sentiment.
If this should happen (and it's a big if), then it could serve as the "all clear" that draws a lot of money now parked on the sidelines back into the market.
At that point, I'd be looking to take some off and reassess.
Just the opinion and ideas of one person, as always.
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
The short answer is, your IP address probably changes, but probably not hourly, more likely either daily or weekly, or anytime you power cycle your router. However the specifics depends on how your ISP decided to configure things.
You could have a static IP, but that's more work for everyone concerned - it would have to be hand-configured into your router, and the ISP would have to make sure nobody else had that IP. Some ISPs provide this as a service.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
CSCO - Price Target Raised from $14 to $21 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral
big volume on banks
Saw some big price gains on heavy volume on WFC, BAC, COF this morning.
UNG- scaling back in at 14.06
...
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
I would expect per normal that your cable IP address is dynamically assigned when the modem connects, and that that address persists until a connection interruption, for whatever reason - at which time a new address is provided by DHCP. Nothing suspicious.
SRS
Afraid of SRS myself 2nd, at least until IYR gets to 35ish. It's great to hit those 20 percent days, but with the S&P poised to convincingly breakout (whether it's a blowoff or not) I don't see the risk-reward in my favor in the leveraged short ETFs.
static IP
Some providers assign random IP addresses.
I know I finally got tired of Ritholtz's market letter people's seeming inability to understand this fact.
Dave/Cuvo thanks - what a stupid security mechanism then
...
Re: Innocent until proven guilty?
"So those "suspected" of using tax havens have to "prove" innocence?"
This is no different than the position you're in regarding burden of proof in terms of your federal and state tax liabilities. Why shouldn't it be consistent?
anyone for S&P 900? Anyone?
Only 8 points away.
Re: Dave/Cuvo thanks - what a stupid security mechanism then
Well, it's a good option but they should make it clear that it should only be enabled if you are certain that you have a static IP.
Bahamas and US taxes
Bill - any comment on Obama trying to close tax loopholes on companies and foreign investors who shelter profits in The Bahamas? The prez speaks at 11am EDT. Will this affect your biz?
btw....I forget who it was but
kudos to the guy who bought the Maple Leaves the other day. Good timing man.
My watchlist for this morning looks like a "who's-who" of stocks that went up today. Potash. Alcoa. Yamana of course. General Moly. Remember the General? I wouldn't buy it right here maybe, but it's starting to happen again as a trading vehicle.
Re: SRS
TT- Good point. I exited SRS/TZA with a finger cut this morning when it became obvious it wasn't working.
Re: What i am learning through observation on MACD
On my settings, MACD went positive March 11 and stayed that way until April 20. Then it went to "stand aside" until April 30 and now is opening up to bullish again. Pretty good little indicator.
Later comment: I am referring only to the dow and the S&P... not individual stocks.
Volume
Anyone have a good take this early. Everything I'm holding (except KGC, AUY) seem to be moving on good volume.
Elan
One of the few pharma stocks I follow ELN has some interesting action this morning. There seems to be renewed takeover talks after a recent data release that confirmed Tysabri as an MS drug. This one has a had a wild past so definetly not for the faint of heart, but might be worth keeping an eye on as a speculative play. They also have a distribution agreement with BIIB. I bought in a tiny amount of ELN last week @5.85 - now wishing it was more, but in the money so far.....
DXY to break support at 84?
So the stock market is juiced with a two month short squeeze to help paint a rosy picture. Yet if enough money seeking better returns moves back into stocks, what happens in the bond market to hold down yields? I guess Atlas at the Fed can manage both simultaneously...
FXP@16.66
..........
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
Actually, some providers offer static IPs at a premium price. I have AT&T DSL and I used to have a static address to support my home business, but when I no longer needed it I switched back to dynamic to save a few $$.
It's nuts that any web site uses IP white listing for customers. It's certainly okay for integration partners who DO have static addresses. But for consumers, it's impractical.
BAC distribution?
For the first part of the morning, BAC was a good follower of the SPX. Then, halfway up, there was some pretty impressive distribution happening on good volume. It looked a little like dogs on a leash. They ran wide open on nice volume, right until they ran to the end of the leash, and then - no further.
CHK/HK/PXP
CHK - Today's support benchmark for entry is $21.10
HK - Today's support benchmark for entry is $24.91
PXP - Today's support benchmark for entry is $22.32
Long term support remains within tolerance for the trio.
Re: What i am learning through observation on MACD
"I am referring only to the dow and the S&P... not individual stocks."
A similar MACD event chronology is true for many individual stocks as well.
Re: FXP@16.66/ Now that's unreal!
Pz-
Exactly one year ago, I was vacationing in Hawaii with my family. I recall a debate as to whether FXP would test the fifties, or return to the nineties. Now it's at a new low in the teens. Nice entry.
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
Unfortunately, one characteristic of IB is that they let you get yourself into trouble. It's true with trading (I've heard some stories of aggressive automated liquidation if you get a margin call), and it's true with the platform. It has it's good sides, however. Most brokers wouldn't even consider allowing consumers to write automated trading software, but IB will let you. It's just your problem if it fails! :)
Re: What i am learning through observation on MACD
IMO, if you look more closely, the MACD will get you in late, and get you out late. The end result is that unless you have a long up or down trend, it won't be profitable if you are just buying and selling on the signals.
I did some backtesting with it, and that was what I found.
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
Right, and offering IP-based security to people who don't whether or not they have a static IP is just asking for trouble. A much better solution is X.509 certs, imho.
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
I'd bet a customer asked for IP-based security, it went thru marketing, marketing said "how hard is this", engineering said "boy that's pretty easy, but there will be issues with dynamic IPs", and marketing said "well if its easy, let's do it." :)
And now Les has 24 hours to admire the market movements while he waits for the database to update.
Home Buying Season
Perhaps this market recognizes the start of home buying season in the northern hemisphere... (does this explain the tradition of sell in May and go away?)
Re: What i am learning through observation on MACD
"I did some backtesting"
Agreed, one needs more than MACD for short term trading, the folks who saw MACD roll over end of Feb/beginning of March caught the wave.
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
RE:>Unfortunately, one characteristic of IB is that they let you get yourself into trouble. It's true with trading (I've heard some stories of aggressive automated liquidation if you get a margin call)
Well, that inspires some confidence that IB won't lose my money at least (I know what you're thinking - I can do that easily enough :)
I did get a first-hand appraisal of falling short on margin with my first go at options trading. The matter is brought to one's attention with a yellow highlighted appraisal of the rapidly dwindling funds available for trading. I was not prepared to wait until a flashing red light went off to see what would happen.
the lessons we learn...
IB
Re IB security: Now have a security card, and before that had a security code generator. Both have worked flawlessly in implementing challenge/response security.
Relevant link to IB site:
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=secur...
Click on the "STP" tab for info on IB's Secure Transaction Program
Re margin calls: IB is very up-front about the fact that they do not make margin calls, and that they act very promptly via automated liquidation to protect themselves. From the IB website:
"IB calculates initial (new position) and maintenance margin requirements on a real-time basis. IB will liquidate positions on a real-time basis if there is a maintenance margin deficiency. Real-time margining allows you to see your trading risk at any moment of the day and it allows IB to maintain low commissions because we do not have to spread the cost of credit losses to customers like other non-automated brokers."
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/margi...
Re: What i am learning through observation on MACD
MACD will get you in/out less late if you (1) use shorter time frames (e.g., hourly vs daily, or daily vs weekly); and (2) if you play with the parameters a bit (e.g., MACD[8,15,9] vs MACD[12,26,9]). Not advice; do your own due diligence.
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
Dave - LOL! Happened all the time. ~ OG
S&P TA Factoid
The S&P 500 RSI (7) on the daily chart is now at 73.83. In the recent past, when the RSI has been this high, the market has dropped the next day - sometimes the next two.
Maybe it's time to buy FAZ at the close! :) (I feel like I'm - what's that word - enabling. Yes, enabling)
FD: I just shorted another batch of the XLF
Re: For the IT people in this crowd
OG, if its not clear by now, I was in engineering getting to field cost estimates for these - uh - useful new features. :)
DXY @ 83.97
@j@
TGP
Bill,
Seems every ship co. has left the dock except the one in the cara 100.
is this because of their focus on NG.
wondering if it may play catch up to DRYS FRO NM EGLE.......SEA
Re: Elan
ELN is absolutely flying now on some huge volume - already at 5m shares traded vs 3m avg volume of 3.1m. At this rate I won't be surprised at all if we pass 10-12m shares today.
North American Palladium
Is also just beginning to happen as a trading vehicle again. (PAL)
Technically Useless?
Does TA help us to understand the "time preference of money"? We'll see.
The SPX 60 minute chart (top trendline) has tracked the underside of the previous SPX trendline and is at its top. Don't know if the link will work.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_0jshcRmzyKA/Sf8LT5gugGI/...
Silver
is on a run.
Yamana is looking like it made a halfway-consolidation pattern this am...it could se 8.80 if gold holds/rises. I hope it rises to make the trade clearer.
It's also interesting that both stocks and PM's are rising. That's kind of unusual.
Re: UNG- scaling back in at 14.06/ off @ 14.17
Back to even for the day. Still leaning short the broader market. 100% cash for now.
See Spot Run
Gold spot has been ahead of the future all day. What does that mean?
Re: Silver
"interesting that both stocks and PM's are rising. That's kind of unusual."
Looking at the Dollar might help fill in the blanks...
CA prop 1C
securitization of future lottery revenues to get $5billion. Repeal $1billion that goes to education from lottery every year.
way this is going, CA will start paying in lottery tickets to employees/tax refunds etc.... How much can they really tax the common man?
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_1C_(May_2009)
$USD
$USD sharply down- 83.9
Re: TGP
Milesquare - The one fundamental that would keep me away from LNG is the glut of supply in the US, I'd be looking to Europe/Japan for LNG strength?
All of this could change if NG prices suddenly shot up?
BTW, TGP proved technical support 5/1 at $17.58
-OXBQC on the watchlist
Timing is everything. But buyers into this morning's strength will be tested.
Keeping an eye on the greenback
What's the quickest way to see where the USD is in relation to other currencies?
At the moment I have to go over to Google finance and then can check currency fluctuations.
"$USD" shows up in stockcharts.com, but most of the time I'm looking at charts in real time or yahoo finance. I haven't been able to readily access USD info on these channels as readily as I can check gold prices on Kitco.
How do others here keep an eye on USD?
Is it necessary to keep a real-time eye on the greenback, or is a pre-trading check sufficient for daily trading? (I assume when the fed makes announcements or T-bill offerings occur that real time changes can occur - or is this a false idea?)
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50
...
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50
2nd, just a quick flip trade or you are thinking it will go down from here? I am thinking it will test the bears more in coming days....
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50
shiva- I'm not into holding anything right now. It will be quick.
Re: Keeping an eye on the greenback
""$USD" shows up in stockcharts.com, but most of the time I'm looking at charts in real time or yahoo finance."
A quick and dirty method of taking the Dollar's temperature is by taking a peek at UUP. There's a decent currency chart over at kitco, and one at ino.com as well, I believe.
what a rally on volume really looks like
Look at the daily chart for TCK. Now that's a rally with some volume behind it.
Sadly, I bailed out at 6.5. A twobagger, but - sigh. The fish that got away.
Re: what a rally on volume really looks like
....
Re: what a rally on volume really looks like
TCK - She bit me on the nose as well, so I broke it off. Not the only fish in the sea...
Re: Keeping an eye on the greenback
Some nice Java apps at http://www.netdania.com/
bought more FCX puts
When this rally was only starting in March, I figured it will go much higher than anyone expects. Now it is going even higher than I expected. :) But then, in early March 2nd_ave wrote that the time to start selling this rally will be when people will actually believe in it and will "start standing in line to board this train." I think this is happening now -- I see a change in sentiment taking place.
So I just bought some FCX June $44 puts for $2.62 (a small position), both as a hedge on my recent portfolio gains and as a trade of its own, since I think a pull back is more likely to occur now that people are starting to believe in this rally. Placed a sell limit order on them at $5.24.
While increasing a short position as the market rises is dangerous, buying puts gradually on the way up makes a lot of sense, as it limits my losses in case the market keeps going up and provides insurance for the gains if the market reverses.
Re: Keeping an eye on the greenback
SaxoTrader at http://www2.saxobank.com/en/Pages/default.aspx
covered ACI puts
Bought back 5 contracts of ACI May $14 puts at $0.15, which I sold 10 days ago at $1.10. Just taking profits on this rally, collecting cash to sell more puts if a decline were to occur.
Why the dollar drop
Why did the dollar drop this morning? Was it China strength? Green shoots in Japan? Tell me.
Re: Keeping an eye on the greenback
ALOHA !!
For a one stop shopping I use KITCO. I can see gold and silver and other metals as well as most of the important currencies at a glance. Then if I need more detail on real time I go to IB.
I start at KITCO because it is hassle free. At IB I have type in all the security stuff for everything I do and sometimes with my internet connectivity issues it takes awhile. I have no complaints about IB security ... it is great ... but when I want a quick look at THE MONEY GAME, IB is not the first place I look!
it's probably senseless shorts like me holding this market up
high risk area here @ 900...for longs and shorts alike.
Re: What i am learning through observation on MACD
True that. I find macd does better on indexes than stocks - same with ema/sma crosses. As for MACD getting you in late - better late than never. And as for getting you out late - I rely more on a stop loss than on any single indicator. Nothing works all the time. Short-term I think the market's a drunkard's walk.
Re: Why the dollar drop
ALOHA !!
Never mind the USDX ... look at the MXN, Mexican peso! WOW!!
Why is the USDX down? Because the Mexican peso is sucking the life out of us!!! Obviously fundamentals have nothing to do with why the Mexican peso is up over 3% today! SWINE FLU and DRUG CARTELS must be seen as an asset in Mexico by FX traders.
I saw on SAXOBANK link 200:1 margin leverage being advertised for FX trading ...
I wonder what they want to qualify? Either your first born or an autographed photo of Hank Paulson!
First Options Contract
Well, I've finally grown up and started with option strategies. I sold my first call option on at&t, July 29 strike. Wish me luck!
Re: it's probably senseless shorts like me holding this ...
"high risk area here @ 900...for longs and shorts alike."
Perhaps momentum will overcome infatuation....
Re: Innocent until proven guilty?
Not sure if I mentioned this before, but the one year in 56 years of paying taxes that my accountant said I didn't need to file — I was required to file a return to prove that I didn't need to file a return.
Not holding my breath for any apologies.
BAC 6,5,4,3,2,1....
Blast-off over there...
Re: Innocent until proven guilty?
"Not holding my breath for any apologies."
That has happened to me several times, never got any kind of feedback whatsoever, even though I requested. The burden of proof is ours in every respect and has been. So what's new, have offshore accounts really been an exception? Wouldn't surprise me much...
This is change I can sink my teeth into, but it far from reverses the concept of governmental efficiency qualifying as an oxymoron.
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50/out @ 8
Not my day, obviously. Kept it small, 2 contracts.
stop hunting
I think HB&B is stop hunting for those bank shorts. Article in bloomberg talked about short volume increasing on the banks prior to stress test release. Good time to toss a few bucks at XLF, and see what pops out. I mean on the part of HB&B, of course.
I know I'm feeling squeezed! :)
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50/out @ 8
2nd, somehow i am getting a feeling that this will run another 500 points. Went long on PCU & BG
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50/out @ 8
Shiva- Well, you could be right. But it's easy to get that feeling on a day like this. I'm just off my game right now. Took a -0.5% haircut, which doesn't sound like much, but it pretty much erases the 0.6% gain from Friday. I tried trading around the short side all morning- SRS, TZA, even FAZ.
LMT
This little bugger just can't seem to garner technical support... today's ST benchmark is $81.59, LT still holds from 3/27 @ $68.9 though.
benched
That's what a good coach would do. 100% cash and hitting the showers.
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50/out @ 8
if we clear another 10 points in SPX, then no resistance till 950. And thursday is around the corner. You are right, it could go either way
Yamana and SLW
My favorite stocks.
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50/out @ 8
2nd, I came in to day long SDS on friday's close. I sold on the open at 61.91. Why did i get out? Simple the A/D line was 2000 to 470 or so, that was about all I needed to see that the short side was to hard for today. Sometimes it really is that simple. Good luck.
OT: Thanks for the Stones tune Gimmie Shelter
Re: Yamana and SLW
May your brandy balloon runneth over.
Re: North American Palladium
Sharkie,
Funny you should make a note of this. I had picked up on it as well, and just this morning I diarized the Q1 results announcement for close of Thursday market and 2PM Friday webcast/tele-conference. I include PDL in my "dead money" list with the hope and knowledge that past price and volume recovery is swift. Lac Des Iles mine is still on shut down so what is happening?
Another one on my "dead money" list is Noront ( NOT ). I'm so far underwater on this one that I can't see surface light. How is it that a guy like CEO Paul Parisotto, with a long history of being a watchdog and new listings manager at the TSE ( TSX ), can't get a TSX listing with all the positive spin coming out of the Ring of Fire? Despite a string of respectable drilling and geo results they "just don't get no respect" on the Venture board.
This rally WILL end during
This rally WILL end during our lifetimes.
Re: -OXBQC on the watchlist/ opening @ 9.50/out @ 8
Telestar3d- Yes, I can see I need to find moves beyond reading ST sentiment. Being able to spot one set-up consistently can take you a long way, but it's also in and of itself a long way from learning the game.
What I used to do versus now
I've always been good at finding stocks that could go up. The difference between now and what I used to do is, if I made a great trade in the past I used to be like, "ok, let's do another one..."
Invariably, by trading too much, I would up not making or losing money quite often.
These days methinks that less is more. If I do well on a trade I try to savor it, not give the money back.
I love the rules 2nd posted last week....One stick in the mind...
"If you're not sure, do nothing."
I've always been excellent at doing nothing.
Re: This rally WILL end during
Yeah, but it's different THIS time!
;-)
PAL/NOT
My system currently adorns these with an okey-dokey seal of approval.
Re: TGP
"suddenly shot up?"
pull up a 5 day chart of UNG more like "Shot out" of a cannon!
I bought some shippers last month (NM, DRYS...not TGP) but put the stops too close so I'm out w/30% more than I went in with.....
now looking for things that haven't participated.....like TGP.
Re: This rally WILL end during
"This rally WILL end during our lifetimes."
That's debatable.
From Jeff Saut's notes today
"The longest “buying stampede” chronicled in my notes is 41 sessions. Today is either session 39, if you measure from the intraday low of March 6th (666 basis the S&P 500), or session 38 if you measure from the March 9th closing low of 676.53. In either event, we have made a lot of money over the last eight weeks and continue to think the trick from here will be to keep that money. Longer-term, we are pretty optimistic. Near-term, we are cautious. If I had to buy something today it would be the emerging markets like Brazil since most of the emerging markets didn’t make new reaction lows in March like the S&P did. Moreover, I think they will be the leaders in the next bull market."
Dave
Re: North American Palladium
Chicken I'd like to buy you a drink my friend! Make that 2 rounds of drinks!
Terry... We need some inside juice about the re-open of that mine eh? Want to get a job at PAL?:)...JUST kidding folks, really, I'm kidding. Really.
OFFSHORE
ALOHA !!
I find this whole OBAMA witch hunt for all these wealthy people hiding OFF SHORE a bit foolish and quite frankly a drop in the bucket of the vast WASTELAND and BOTTOMLESS BLACKHOLE known as BIG GOVERNMENT SPENDING!
By OBAMA'S own admin accountants this whole attack on OFFSHORE TAX EVADERS would bring in $210bil USD, offset by some other corporate give away on R&D and it nets $135bil over ten years! PLEASE-E-E-E ... since when will $13.5bil per year make any difference whatsoever in anything that remotely resembles FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY by our government.
As I have shown time-after-time the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT eats $52mil a day as an appetizer! That's what it would net ... $52mil USD per each business day. However, this net number does not include the budget increase for the IRS to hire an extra 800 agents to implement OBAMA'S plan. In the end we are looking at ineffectual peanuts!
I want to hear about what OBAMA plans to do to CUT US GOVERNMENT spending by $210bil USD? I am not interested in a US TAX POSSE to scare up peanuts and disrupt foreign relations with the few allies we have left making the USA look like cheap desperados! So far OBAMA has offered nothing in that aspect.
Besides my guess is that most Americans OFFSHORE are just looking for a safe bank and tax evasion is about as far away from their plans as spending cuts in CONgress! I believe there are many Americans moving outside the USA just for safety reasons ... period! Like financial refugees looking for safety from an overbearing out of control USSA GOVERNMENT!
OBAMA? Ever think in those terms? Try it for once! That's right put down the phone and quit chit-chatting with OPRAH! Turn the USSA into the USA and you might actually get somewhere for a CHANGE!
Re: From Jeff Saut's notes today
i like this from those notes. Very true...
“At two race tracks interviewers questioned 69 horse players on their way TO the $2 window and 72 others on their way FROM the window. The interviewers asked all bettors to rate their chances of winning on a scale of 1 to 10. The result was that the bettors returning from placing their bets had significantly MORE confidence in their choices than those interviewed BEFORE their bets were made. Thus, bettors facing doubts as to whether they had bet on the right horse relieved their tension by believing even more after the fact that they had done the right thing.”
Re: What I used to do versus now
"You're not worthy for instruction in the immobile arts. Leave my presence!"
- Patrick from Spongebob
Vadym - Thanks again!
Vadym,
Your session on psychology at CTAB 09 is working wonders for my trading. I still have yet to name my trader persona.
Re: North American Palladium
As I type this I find myself about a half hour's drive from the Lac Des Iles mine. Take my word for it - you do not want to go there, you do not want to work there! Both NOT and PDL are in N.W. Ontario where the economy has been in DEPRESSION for a few years now. Very little of the forestry sector remains at work and the provinical government has decided that they should take a large swath of undeveloped land and create an environmentally-friendly zone which is restricted to development. The Ring of Fire is within the designated restricted zone. Even though NOT has worked hard to develop an excellent rapport with First Nations peoples ( N.A. indians ) who generally oppose developments in which they do not financially participate, politics is putting the brakes on mining in Ontario. However, this is not a fait accompli and the provincial government is not doing well in the polls due to handling of the economy. In developing a new diamond mine recently opened near the Ring of Fire, over 1000 workers were employed and well over $1 Billion spent. I think Jobs will trump Restricted Zone and policy will adapt accordingly.
wow this guys called the bull for months
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&po...
Re: This rally WILL end during
today has hit the resistance I've looked at for months so today is good for me.
Re: North American Palladium
"buy you a drink"
No applause, just throw money... (couldn't resist, one of my fave's)
unbelievable bank day
WFC +24%
BAC +19%
COF +17%
JPM +10%
STI +25%
Poor GS, only +5.6%
Even XLF was +10%
Re: This rally WILL end during
tbar the chart animal! Thx for sharing! ;)
bought more SKF after hours
50 shares at $48.40. The scary time to buy SKF was in early March, since I knew it would be killed on a fierce bear market rally. Today this rally is behind us to a large extent, and I would be very surprised if SKF does not rise significantly above the current levels at some point. The banks WILL have more losses from their mortgages and some of them WILL need new capital.
Placed a sell limit order at $55.40.
chickenpookie
okay I am sick I admit it. lol
Re: What I used to do versus now
I'll drink to that.
Cutting losses quickly/Avoiding the head-on collision
Back from the day job to scan the closing numbers.
Having traded around TZA/SRS/FAZ all morning (not to mention having briefly traded a small position in OEX puts), all I can say is: Taking the -0.5% loss that sent me to the showers was the best move I made all day (and might be the best move I make all week). Sometimes it's not about how much you made. It's about the bad accident you avoided by slamming on the brakes and pulling off the freeway. Obviously, I was driving against traffic all morning, and just narrowly avoided driving INTO oncoming traffic ;)
Les
I hope Les got caught in the updraft to his advantage.
Re: Vadym - Thanks again!
You just made my day.
Re: unbelievable bank day
Dave... more and more looks like my working scenario is being played - run-up into stress tests results publishing with crash or at least hard pullback when they are out. Trap will be especially painful if results look (or are span) positively.
re: One day wonders
Another great day for commodity CRX. One day wonders are not usually 50-60 pts worth.
"If I had a 'black box' strategy;), I'd set it to buy when NYMEX traders would be away or going home early on Friday with many global markets closed to go hand in hand with the MS commodity index breaking out. Add China PMI/ US ISM #'s and kaboom!!.
A day of strength is really no suprise, if you put all those factors together.
While the cat's away, the mice will play. Probably give back next week, but a breakout is a breakout to many no matter the circumstances it occurs (technical guys will tell you)."
How I spent my day...
My day was spent hosting five securities commission auditors, and I was told to be ready for their return at 9am. My problem is trying to balance the number of G&T's I need after 5 hours today with the number I should only have if I'm going to be able to answer their queries tomorrow. At one point, before I hit the print button, I mentioned the report they requested was 883 pages, so we worked out a better solution. No harm, no foul. It's all part of being in the business. But please don't expect me to be replying to your blogs as I won't be in the best condition after I relax a bit.
Re: Bahamas and US taxes
The Bahamas has not many offshore corporations of the kind the Obama Administration is chasing. I believe that the countries/jurisdictions that will be economically hurt the most will be Cayman, Bermuda, BVI.
My business is actually going to be helped by this because we are a real offshore "mind and management" trading house, unlike many hedge funds, and the banks that are offshore have preyed on their accounts for too many years, charging humungous fees for pretty much zero in return. I know many of these bankers and I know they don't have much of a clue how to trade, and the systems and people they have in place are not up to the task. But, the bottom line is that CTAB is only in Bahamas because I personally like the fiscal regime (pay as you go), the weather and ocean, the people and the laid-back lifestyle. I could just as easily be located in say Ft. Lauderdale or Hawaii or Hong Kong -- and although I'd pay a lot of taxes, there would be many offsetting factors.
Bahamas will do ok. I would agree that some of the banks will be harder pressed to stay here, but that's a loss that can be overcome. I have always opined that this country needs to develop an active trading expertise -- from the locals, not the mid-level near-retirement bankers the foreigner banks send in to do the job of covering up for tax evaders. I seriously plan to help the locals to build and operate businesses like mine, and mentioned that today to the securities commission examiners.
What bothers me about the Obama plan is that the HB&B people who are "advising" him, the Treasury and the Fed, are the previous leaders of the "offshoring" that purposefully led to the problem Obama is now crying about. That means these people -- the Goldmans and JP Morgans -- had enough time while they were drafting the plan to optimize the situation their most exposed clients would now find themselves in. So, the bankers who knew this was coming have been licking their chops at taking business from UBS and others in that camp, and that's not right.
Finally, it cannot be left unsaid that the US government is the biggest tax cheater in the world. Does the IRS obtain the records of all foreigners that buy Treasury bonds, and withhold taxes for remission to the foreign countries? Many of those accounts are in the offshore jurisdictions, and the US Admin wants those accounts protected. Such is the hypocrisy that pervades Washington. It's pathetic to me that Obama thinks he can come out of this looking clean and doing the right thing.
usb
The 38% fib was the base for the launch to 142.66 The tl off the 82-83 highs will need to hold imho. The lower tl at 90 ish is calling but is the time right ? Lower rates have been in a bull market for 30yrs when does that end and what could possibly cause it if there is indeed so much pressure for the other side of the trade?
Re: How I spent my day...
Two G&Ts before dinner will give one a BAC of 0.045 within 30 minutes, which for most people would be a pleasant state of relaxation. A glass of wine with dinner (which slows the rate of absorption) would probably maintain the BAC in a similar range until cocktails. A postprandial infusion of an additional 1-2 G&Ts would then jack it up to 0.06-0.07, which is a range which generally allows one to put off until tomorrow what can wait. It then takes about 4-5 hours to burn off completely.
$BPNYA at 70%
http://tinyurl.com/cku33l
Professor Buffett
http://tinyurl.com/crr5cs
"Messrs. Buffett and Munger made clear their complete disdain for the use of higher-order mathematics in finance.
"There is so much that's false and nutty in modern investing practice and modern investment banking, that if you just reduced the nonsense, that's a goal you should reasonably hope for," Mr. Buffett said. Regarding complex calculations used to value purchases, he said: "If you need to use a computer or a calculator to make the calculation, you shouldn't buy it."
Said Mr. Munger: "Some of the worst business decisions I've ever seen are those with future projections and discounts back. It seems like the higher mathematics with more false precision should help you, but it doesn't. They teach that in business schools because, well, they've got to do something."
Mr. Buffett said: "If you stand up in front of a business class and say a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, you won't get tenure....Higher mathematics may be dangerous and lead you down pathways that are better left untrod."
Re: Cutting losses quickly/Avoiding the head-on collision
2nd
I was away from market today but can say that they are turning toxic assets into AAA gold, with help of Kostin at GS who upgrades banks so KBE went up almost 15%. I really think GS rules the world. GS has taken over the market and will push the Dow to over 10K. Playing poker against the machine (GS)
you always lose.
Re: unbelievable bank day
If the banks knew that the worst is behind and their stocks are set to grow, then the best way to play this game is to take the financial stocks down soon so that they could reload them at much cheaper prices. Otherwise, it is becoming unprofitable for them to keep bidding the bank stocks higher. But maybe their only goal is to create a local hype and to sell shares at a multi-month price peak...
Same thing is true for the stock market as a whole -- even if we assume that the worst is behind for the economy (which I seriously doubt), the Big Boys need to let some passengers off this train to make more room for themselves.
BANKS - distribution or accumulation ?
FYI. I am no expert, but can't help wondering. The financial registered "NEGATIVE" money flow for today. JPM, BAC, GS, USB, BK, MET, MS were among the top 13 money OUTFLOW. Take a look and let me know what you think -
http://tinyurl.com/5pngkn
US TREASURY DAILY
ALOHA !!
More really HUGE spending numbers for MAY DAY ... May 1, 2009.
The infamous mystery line items of OTHER and UNCLASSIFIED went up $25bil USD in one day!
The total one day increase in spending on Social Security and Medicare was almost $37bil USD. HUGE!!! Total for three line items over the past seven months time FY 2009 ... for Social Security, Medicare and Medicade equals $764.9bil USD. That's TARP territory! Add in Defense and we're over $1tril USD in seven months time on just four line items. Yeah OBAMA, go after those deadbeat tax dodgers! Its all their fault ...
I can't even imagine what this country might look like if we did a complete 180 degree on everything government and financial. If our leaders just all of a sudden decided to do the complete opposite of what they are doing now.
SPENDING ... SPENDING ... SPENDING!!!
Re: BANKS - distribution or accumulation ?
ALOHA !!
BIG GAINS means somebody is SELLING BIG!
Re: unbelievable bank day
"Same thing is true for the stock market as a whole -- even if we assume that the worst is behind for the economy (which I seriously doubt), the Big Boys need to let some passengers off this train to make more room for themselves."
David- I have no skin in the game right now, so my take here is (hopefully) free of bias.
The worst is NOT behind, whether it's banking or the economy. I think the market driver right now is more likely to be trapped shorts. When the shorts give up, the market will go down.
Re: unbelievable bank day
David,
This is playing out to be an exact reversal of the Jan to Mar 09 move (V shape). We didnt have any meaningful retracement so far. If Jan high is breached in this run, bear market is over (according to Dow Theory experts) & a new bull market starts.
From Jeffrey Saut
Consequently, again this morning, we reiterate that we will leave the question as to whether this is a new bull market to Dow Theory. If the DJIA, and the D-J Transportation Average, can better their early January 2009 closing highs, then according to Dow Theory we will be in a new bull market.
Re: OFFSHORE
Well put kaimu, place blame elsewhere lest the blame be placed on you. GOVERNMENT is the problem, failing to uphold laws and regs already on the books THEN bailing out those who need it least. Chapter 11 was the only solution to actually moving forward from this mess and using offshore 'tax evaders' as scapegoats only serves to stir up class war type rhetoric and sentiment. This is where the US taxpayer is supposed to wake up and fix the problem.
Re: unbelievable bank day
"Same thing is true for the stock market as a whole -- even if we assume that the worst is behind for the economy (which I seriously doubt), the Big Boys need to let some passengers off this train to make more room for themselves."
You've hit the nub of it, David, but, while I KNOW you have been paying attention the last 8 months, I'd just like to remind you that this market turned Mar. 9, 2009 and it's impetus was sure as heck not the "sheeple" whose eardrums were mostly bleeding from the 18-month cacophony of dire predictions for their financial well-being. I venture that it was the Big Boys who pulled the emergency brake on this train before it plunged over the precipice and negated their raison d'être. Not only do I think they all quickly raced for a free seat on this rally, put it's pretty clear that most of the rest of them were strong-armed to get the heck back there and push like hell!
S&P Downgrades 22 Banks
PBS Nightly Business Report
Tonites business report had a story that S&P has today downgraded 22 major banks including the nineteen in the stress test.
They had reports that most of the major banks would need $10 billion to $45 billion of new reserves. It looks that the strong run up today in the finanicals is just trying to head off bad news on Thursdays stress test results. The rest of this week should be very interesting.
Discl---Holding SKF @ $48.50
Re: unbelievable bank day
Conspiracy abound. Recalled World War II lasted at least three more years after Pearl Harbor attack. A lot more casaulty since then. The bank rallied in the last two months as if the war has been won. No?
Recalled the "execuse" that triggered the rally since march 9? It started from a "leak" from Citi's Pandit said that they "made" money in Jan/Feb, followed by Ken Lewis, conspicuous WFC's "early" earning annoucement before Easter, M2M etc. GS did the same trick by annoucing early and was quick to raise more money when GS' street price hit $130. Not to mention that both GS and MS conveniently skipped over Nov.'s "paper loss"? Perhaps they weren't as good as they thought cauz GS closed above $130 today.
I wondered if Warren Buffet bought more of WFC below 16 or is he going to buy some more when WFC go off the track when he said he would buy more today?
FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
Just for the hell of it, I calculated the opportunity cost of having exited these three funds in the buy-and-hold April 15. About 12%. Now it's starting to hurt.
Gold
I was looking at Kitco.com and Gold & Silver appear to be doing well on the world exchange. At least for now...who knows what tommorrow will bring!
Night all.
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
"Just for the hell of it, I calculated the opportunity cost"
Not to rub it in, my trading account gained just over 10% today. I say this knowing full well the opposite could occur tomorrow...
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
CP- Glad to hear it! We all need days like that to break up the tedium of the daily grind. Just popped open an Asahi- here's to you!
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
Cp- We've talked about this CP. Until you put more than $100 in you trading account, percentages don't apply... Damn, man, that's pretty sweet!
It will be interesting to see the action in CHK tomorrow. I suspect it will pop the same way MOS did after reporting.
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
But Mark, $100 was all I had left after holding my bag too long.... ;)
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
2nd- A splendid idea...Lowenbrau Zurich here. ( Can't figure out how to do the funny dots )
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
"Just popped open an Asahi"
No Asahi here aside from my last remaining 135ml mini can, will pop open a Yingling, maybe we attract a crowd.
Wow, that brought back memories of staggering down the streets of Rapongi district, trying to catch the last train to Hashimoto.
Re: TGP
Here's the quarter dividend announcement.
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Teekay-Lng...
I own the stock and it's has been pleasant getting the dividend every quarter.
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
Mark- LOL, yeah it brings to mind using X+3B as if any of our Xs was a significant number by comparison. "Whoa! Did you say it went up from 0.000857+3B to 0.000876+3B in one month? Gimme five! Wait...gimme 0.0000000005+3B!"
VIX
below 35
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
2nd- "Just popped open an Asahi...". Given today's market action, shouldn't it be a Tsintao? Take a look at DRYS.
Re: FSPTX/FSENX/FHKCX
2nd- 0.0000000005+3B!" Exactly, man! Good luck tomorrow. I'll be keeping a close eye on CHK, obviously. Still about 65% cash.
Re: S&P Downgrades 22 Banks
With 3rd degree market burns I share strong feelings that this rally was contrived. The 2008 performance stats on my active trading account shows down -48%, despite being up over 20% the first half of 2008 and that followed a 19% appreciation for the year 2007. I was down an additional -17% Jan through March of 2009. But the pendulum swings...... since April 1st of this year I have gained 58% and in the last week have been going to cash which also now stands at 58% of the portfolio value. What remains is a basket of dogs that I call dead money, plus one quality stock that has a long way to go to break-even but is plodding in the right direction. So I await the next contrived "correction". In the meantime, my cash is being used to make a substantial pay-down on a rental property in order to be debt-free heading into retirement, at which time I hope to use a portion of the retirement savings now in money market mutual funds to self-manage my own portfolio, with Bill's guidance of course.
Re: S&P Downgrades 22 Banks
This is the relevant article... http://tinyurl.com/dzhvhf . Of course they were not downgraded. And this from the article..."Despite the lowered expectations for the industry, S&P said it believed most of the rated institutions will be able to earn their way out of their credit losses during the cycle.".
No comment, just putting the headline in context.
Merry Months Of May to September
So is their a consensus on how the next 5 months will play out here? On the one hand we say that all the brokers take a 6 month holiday and the market does nothing. But based on yesterdays action , theres planety of momentum. Also there is this '5 corrections as per 1930's'. Talk of Gold going to 2K.
Lets say I go on holiday for 5 months now and only occasionally go online to prevent loss or capture huge profit. What is a reasonable stance to take here?.
More Gold Miners? Some more LVS (+20% yesterday)and DRYS (+15%). Put it all on CEF (+2.5%) and relax.
April state revenues dip $456m below expectations
For Kaimu from Massachusetts:
By Matt Viser, Globe Staff
State tax revenues last month fell $456 million below expectations, further alarming state officials who are trying to figure out how to close a midyear budget gap with only eight weeks left in the fiscal year.
The drop-off is below even the most pessimistic projections made late last week, indicating that state residents did not pay nearly the amount expected during what is normally a health collection month in April. State officials last week pegged the April shortfall at about $365 million, but said today that every possible tax fell greater than expected.
“Very somber,” was how Senate President Therese Murray described an afternoon meeting with Governor Deval Patrick and House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo.
The deficit for the last three months of this fiscal year are now expected to drop $953 million below expectations, administration officials said, causing a further hole even after a deficit of more than $3 billion that has already been closed in this fiscal year’s budget.
But with only eight weeks left in the fiscal year, the state’s options are limited. The state only has about $1.3 billion remaining in its reserve account, which means that further cuts are almost certain, possibly to a local aid payment scheduled to go out June 30.
Patrick said he is planning to announce solutions later this week. Secretary of Administration and Finance Leslie Kirwan did not immediately rule out additional cuts to local aid.
“We haven’t put out our plan, and I’m not going to comment,” she said, when asked whether cutting down on local aid this year was a possibility.
A Patrick administration spokesman later said they had ruled out any further cuts to local aid, which is a lifeblood for most cities and towns.
“We are not cutting local aid," said the spokesman, Joseph Landolfi. "We’re just not. It’s not on the table.”
The tumbling revenues will put even greater pressure on Patrick and the Legislature to cut programs or raise taxes. The discussions are bound to raise tensions among Democrats on Beacon Hill, who have disagreed over which taxes to raise and how much to raise them.
The House last week approved an increase in the state sales tax from 5 percent to 6.25 percent. Patrick has threatened to veto it unless lawmakers also approve a series of ethics, pension, and transportation overhauls.
Many Democratic lawmakers accused Patrick of launching his re-election campaign by using the Legislature as a punching bag.
Murray said the topic of last week’s tension did not come up during the meeting today, the first time the three leaders met face to face.
“I’m not going to respond to any of that,” Murray said. “We have such a fiscal crisis in front of us that it’s imperative that we all work together to resolve this.”
On the way to the station
Be sure to obey all precautionary street signs:
UAW is going to get 55% of
UAW is going to get 55% of this wonderful old company, the employees don’t want o keep it
Do you?
STERLING HEIGHTS, Michigan (AP) -- The United Auto Workers union has no intention of keeping its 55 percent stake in the new Chrysler and will sell the shares as soon as possible to fund a trust that will take over retiree health care costs next year, the union's president said Monday.
Ireland under attack
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009...
“The bad news is that we were name-checked as a place where US foreign profits tend to reside,” (PriceWaterhouseCoopers tax partner) Mr O’Rourke added. “It’s not nice to be name-checked by the leader of the free world.”
Well said Mr. O’Rourke. Pres. Obama named Ireland, not the many American corporations who took their business there to operate legally.
I think we are starting to see a pattern with this President. He doesn't like the law, so he puts himself above it.
Re: Merry Months Of May to September
VB- "What is a reasonable stance to take here?...Some more LVS (+20% yesterday)". I think your odds of capital appreciation would be better if you just TOOK your money to the Sands. Good luck, man. BTW...HVAC??
Re: UAW is going to get 55% of
ha ha, i was wondering how they would be willing to make necessary cost cuts sitting on the board. Now I know the game, just make a side profit from the investors (read sheep) out of this deal....
Re: Bahamas and US taxes
He will come out the way the storytellers want him to come out. History is told by the victors, or as Napoleon said, "History is merely a fantasy upon which we all agree."
The U.S. Government has been raping the sheeple since.... My favorite raping was the pillaging of Social Security...we'll take it from you now and we'll owe you later. Well, my question is, exactly how are you going to pay us back. Oh yeah, by taxing us more to replace what you took.
Unfortunately hypocrisy is a political principle. Don't worry, he'll come out smelling like a rose.
Re: April state revenues dip $456m below expectations
ALOHA !!
Nemo ... G'day!!
Yep, those tax revenues keep falling off a cliff! The unfortunate part of it for all the US States is they are not allowed to PRINT money to pay their bills. Only Goldman Sachs and JP MORGAN can print money in America!
Like Kojak used to say ... "Who owns ya baby?" HA!!
Re: Merry Months Of May to September
if I had to bet,, I would keep most money behind the US fed and obama. that means, bet on the banks and everything Obama believes in. It is rigged and might not be "right" but that is the way it is.
Hedge 25-50% with gold in case it fails.
Vacation?? this is not a time to take vacation... (^%^)^(
Re: unbelievable bank day
Shiva, I have seen several times how the market's rally reversed only AFTER a reliable bull market signal has been generated and the DOW theory signaled that the market will now rally MUCH further. That was the moment when the last skeptics bought into the rally, and naturally the market crashed right after that. The rally that happened between early March and early May 2008 (same exact duration as we had so far) had exactly the same feel as this rally after 2 months -- everyone was simply puzzled about it and finally gave up shorting it, figuring that Paulson can print as much money as he wants and take the market arbitrarily high. The rally finished once DOW broke 13100 and ALL technical systems signaled that the bear market is over and DOW is going to 14000.
On the other hand, I have been able to perfectly time the major market reversals in the past two years -- a downward plunge or an upward rally turned only when I gave up buying it or shorting it. :) For example, I closed my FAZ short at $114 in early March, during its INTRADAY high. :(
Since this time I am not planning to give up shorting this rally (or at least this is my current intention), I am afraid it will continue for several more weeks, until I finally give up. :)
Re: Merry Months Of May to September
VBean! I was just thinking about you! I sent you an e-mail re your trip a while ago. Hope all is well.
Re: Ireland under attack
What they ought to do is to make corporate tax rates attractive & close all the loopholes. Companies have long created shell companies in some timbuktu country with no/low rates & put all IP there and then use a transfer price agreement to keep margins very low in countries where they get most of their revenues from. Thats not very fair.... Even Bono is registered in Netherlands.
I think common sense will
I think common sense will prevail, remember NAZ 5000. It is always a timing thing.
Plan to buy June put on oex and FXP/SMN/DUG/SKF tomorrow. May buy few at pre-market. Time to play and worse can happen is I might lose
Will not use STOP at this moment?
Re: UAW is going to get 55% of
ALOHA !!
WOW ... with unions on your side who needs Al-Qaeda?
Re: unbelievable bank day
i am not thinking market will go up. I meant to point out that we are very close to a decision point/retracement (few hundred more points). I have realized over the years that I dont want to hold any strong views on market direction but just trade the tide. Or put it another way, i am willing to give up the first 10% and last 10%(up or down), the middle portion of trend is good enough to make me some coins.... Mostly in cash now, watching for good entry up/down.
Re: Merry Months Of May to September
hi Mark!
all is well. i was just being quiet for a change.
lol
vb
Re: April state revenues dip $456m below expectations
nemo
"increase in the state sales tax from 5 percent to 6.25 percent" they will raise it to 7.25. they don't care.
Re: April state revenues dip $456m below expectations
Vinod/Nemo- You guys have it easy. In Sonoma Co. CA our sales tax is 9%.
Re: April state revenues dip $456m below expectations
and they raised the state income tax rate as well
Re: Merry Months Of May to September
Mark,
PS
I must have woken up when you used VB (my **trademark** -- HA!) when addressing "ventilation blues"!
vb
Re: Merry Months Of May to September
VB- Thanks, so you did see my response to that! Welcome back my friend. I missed your company.
Re: Merry Months Of May to September
thanks mark
by the way,, I bought NG after you kept talking about it but after I bought it , it turned out to be something called Nova Gold. but, guess what? It went straight up.. Later I realized you were talking about natural gas.. so I bought some of that too UNG and it went straight up.
you're my lucky star
vb
Re: April state revenues dip $456m below expectations
They'll tax the shirt right off your back and not bat an eye. Maintaining government growth is job #1, and HB&B will support their efforts because they get a cut.
Whatever they need, they will manufacture using our currency.
Re: April state revenues dip $456m below expectations
CP- Let me give you a real world example. While I was in High School and College, during holiday breaks I worked for the local Dept. of Public Works. (DPDW). At the end of every fiscal year, we would go on a equipment shopping spree to spend all of the fiscal $ we had left. Of course, this seemed crazy to me as we just added to the stock pile of new equipment that was bought the year before. I asked the Super why we are buying more "stuff" and his replay was, of course,..."If we don't spend all of our budget, we won't get an increase next year." It will never change man.
Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss.
http://tinyurl.com/tch-test.
What do you guys think about this story. Title is misleading, but overall was it a fair assessment. I know tech is an art. http://tinyurl.com/tch-test. interesting that the best performing indicator overall was MACD. I think some of you were indicating today it was not a good indicator for sort term trade?
Bob
Re: Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss.
I was the one who commented on macd prone to giving false signals when prices are not in a trend, ie trading sideways/consolidating. And this is not a rule. just an observation in my short trading career.
But indicators in general, for me as a novice, are simply a summation of goal posts that give me the boundaries to make a educated guess and try to minimize my risk.
The best analogy i have is how we decide what clothing to wear in changing climate zones. Maybe I see online that tomorrow will be light rain. But in the morning the forecast is thunder storm on the television. the radio might say its only a passing storm. but then i would open my door and see it was sunny. sometimes all these indicators will give me the same forecast, yet still be wrong. or they'll give me contrary indications at once and I need to pack rain coat, ice scraper, etc.
so i guess I would agree with the reporter who says using tech analysis alone is not ideal, as there are also sector/currency/political/peer analysis that is needed.
This i guess is where the art comes into play.
Re: Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss.
That article is so wrong, it's hard even to know where to begin dismantling it. Wrong premises, wrong connections, wrong conclusions, and even a few right quotes are used in a wrong context.
I think if I wrote an article about ballet, people who understand it would feel like I do reading this one.
Failure: The Secret to Success (Video)
By Honda.
I really liked this video as the theme of Success being tied to what you learn from failures, is an important lesson we all should not forget in trading and in life.
http://tinyurl.com/8zmkoc
IMF summay
http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/pdf/ex...
full text
http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/index.htm
Credit spreads tell researchers a story - and it aint good.
John Mauldin has gone and copied another newsletter in its entirety, he felt it compelling reading. Here's one interesting paragraph:
"New research by the Federal Reserve and Boston University of credit spreads of 900 non-financial companies from 1990-2008 predicted changes in the economy 'phenomenally' well. Based on their initial research on low to medium risk corporate bonds with more than 15 years to maturity, the researchers went back to 1973 and found the analysis still worked well. With the massive widening of corporate bond spreads last fall, the researcher's model predicts the economy will lose another 7.8 million jobs by the end of 2009, and industrial production will fall another 17%. In the spirit of optimism, let's assume this 'phenomenal' model is off by 35%, due to the extreme nature of this credit crisis. That still results in another 5.1 million lost jobs, and an 11% drop in industrial production. In that scenario, the unemployment rate climbs to near 12.5%, the underemployment rate breaches 20%, and another 500,000-750,000 foreclosures result."
WSJ article on Geithner's ties to Goldman
There was some interesting comments from WSJ readers of the article I reviewed here regarding Timothy Geithner and Goldman Sachs. I think Pres. Obama should, for once if he can, stop talking and start listening. The people are speaking up, demanding action. They expected change.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124139546243981801...
Re: Innocent until proven guilty?
CP,
I would agree to such a change — except...
Obama has said we would see:
• an end to earmarks • transparency • an end to Wall ST. influence BLA,BLAH, BLAH
Any such change would doubtless exclude those in Congress, big bankers and other major contributors, and only apply to those who have no clout of any kind.
Timmy's tax "mistakes" are a pretty clear guide.
The news on New York Fed's chairman, Stephen Friedman, and his Goldman Sachs connection yesterday is another.
BOHECA! The screwing of the general populace will continue to grow!
Re: Ireland under attack
Bill,
Obama graduated cum laud from Chicago politics.