Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Monday, Jul. 20, 2009

Good morning.

BRCM - PT Raised from $29.50 to $31 @ FBR Capital. Outperform.

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Note to Bill:

Welcome home. Glad you had a well deserved blast. Team Cara did a great job with the Daily Commentary during your vacation.

http://tinyurl.com/lzxl9k

Halliburton says its second-quarter profit tumbled 48 percent as sluggish exploration and production activity, particularly in North America, crimped results.

The oilfield services company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, said Monday its net income for the April-June period fell to $262 million, or 29 cents per share. That compared with $504 million, or 55 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue fell 22 percent to $3.5 billion.

One-time items aside, Halliburton said earnings amounted to $274 million, or 30 cents a share.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were expecting earnings of 27 cents a share and revenue of $3.43 billion.

Halliburton kicked off the earnings period for the oil and gas sector. Most forecasts predict significantly lower year-over-year results for producers and service companies.

Where does the signal for interest rates come from Bill?

Fed meetings? Bernanke's presentation before Congress this week? Bond auction failures? What would be the trigger for a confirmation of Twigg's interest rate/rally setup?

Davef, what's your website that allows you to monitor the USD in realtime? TIA

So HAL beats. I think what traders are mentally wrestling with is whether the world economy can get it together given the trillions spent propping it up. We all know/knew wild kids who came home, got it together, and matured into hard-working, responsible adults. If that happens, it's not difficult to imagine 8000 as the bottom of the trading channel going forward.

Is that believable? I don't know. Opening a position in FXP @ 10.65 for now.

Glad that you had some total down time on vacation-sometimes that is what is needed to clear the head and recharge the soul. I am very interested in your impressions of the people. Since Cuba does a fair tourist business it would be hard for the government to be effective in controlling what people have to say. So I look forward to hearing about the real Cuba and the real feelings of it citizens, probably more so than the next trade.

A few "posters" around here could use a brush-up on quoting sources. Bill's last post is a good model:

... XXX says: "..."

... followed by poster's opinion on the matter.

A link to the quoted source is also useful.

Simply cutting and pasting something you read is bizzare. Among other problems, how can we, in future, distinguish your opinions/research from plagiarized material. Speaking for myself, I know what I do with these types - ignore.

Dave- This is a difficult tape to trade. I'm content with trying to spot one-day trends I can ride. More often, 20-minute trends.

http://tinyurl.com/lzxl9k

[Could not edit the original post]

yes and no Mackinaw. I'm not going to waste peoples time linking something that isn't worth reading.

If it's in quotation marks its been lifted elsewhere. If I don't link it's because its not worth your time.

Ignoring is not a crime either, although such quotations usually preempt a question I have. I would hope that I am not ignored for such "sins".

...

...

...

ALOHA !!

I have been following CIT, as a small business owner these things interest me a great deal. I have already shown via the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT that Obama cares not for small business, otherwise he would put a little more funding into the SBA than the current $3.7BIL USD, which is less than 1% of TARP funds to insolvent US Banks. So, it was no shock that the US government would not lend CIT a hand.

My first reaction to the news is how panicky and unprepared CIT seemed after the disclosure. It reminded me of Katrina. Do the Boards and management of these companies really have a complete lack of understanding of their business and their financial position.

Remember with Katrina the issue was not that nobody knew someday a hurricane may swamp the levees in New Orleans, the issue was the US Supply Chain dynamics that caught FEMA sleeping and much of local and State government asleep as well. The Supply Chain turned out to be just a 3 DAY window. In terms of "response time" it was OPRAH and WALMART that were first on the scene and not our beloved government(FEMA).

As I have shown in the past WE THE PEOPLE pay the bulk of taxes in America. Look at any President's FY Budget and you will see that corporations pay the least in taxes. Really self-employed people pay the most in taxes but get the least in return. So if Individuals(WE THE PEOPLE)pay the most in taxes then why are we represented the least by government? If I called up my rep INOUYE in Honolulu and said, "Aloha, this is Kaimu and I would like to meet with the Senator later today!" They would laugh and hang up. Yet if I called up and said I was Lloyd Blankenfein head of Goldman Sachs then the Senator would fly to Hilo to meet me ... Lloyd has CLOUT!

I believe CIT needs to clean house with its Board and management at the most opportune time, even if they do survive. Its a good thing the CIT management weren't the Captain of the Exxon Valdez or they would have ran the ship right into town and driven it down main street before they woke up!

Then I read these accounts of the many businesses that depend on CIT, like Eddie Bauer, for one. All this shows is that there is a lot of ineptitude in American business, meaning if some 1million small businesses in America rely on CIT then those businesses are not living within their means. The DEBT ATTRITION is killing the recovery both retail and commercial.

Once again America proves to the World that we run on DEBT and nothing but DEBT. DEBT is the fuel of our economic engine. None of this inspires much CONFIDENCE(the C WORD)in US Treasuries(US DEBT) or the US Dollar(US DEBT). The US Dollar is DEBT. Its an IOU backed by never ending DEBT.

Now it would not behoove the now cashed up and FASB-ed US FED member banks like JP Morgan and Bank America and Wells Fargo to rescue CIT since those banks would be the beneficiaries of a CIT collapse. Even if CIT does not collapse the many business under the CIT umbrella are already seeking other companies to finance their payroll. So even if CIT survives it will be operating at a huge disadvantage. This is what happens when "consumers" lose CONFIDENCE in a company or a country. They head for the exits ...

I personally would not want to be the "private entities" making loans to CIT. They have to know that the business going forward is impaired due to lack of CONFIDENCE in CIT's ability to manage its business. Even changing management would be looked upon as a red flag at this point, unless they announce Warren Buffet was CEO.

When it comes to the WORLD OF DEBT it boils down to WHO YOU KNOW ... not WHAT!

How long will that business model last?

Isn't it interesting that these major US banks get TARP when in reality they wouldn't even qualify for their own commercial loans, yet they are allowed to exist in this ANTI-DARWIN WORLD of banking fraud?

Isn't it interesting that these major US banks get TARP and then turn around and raise our credit card rates to 30% while they cut our credit lines?

Its as if these same major US Banks who took US taxpayer funds to survive actually want the US economy to fail. They act in a manner that is detrimental to our very survival. A drug dealer would use the same tactics to OWN his clients, by withholding the dope, much like banks now withhold DEBT, America's drug of choice. The DEBT withdrawal symptoms are similar to the symptoms of coming off any addictive drug ... panic, depression, suicide. Hummmmm??? OPRAH thinks all this DEBT is WEALTH!

As I posted over at Seeking Alpha yesterday, regarding remaking the SBA ... "What PC software am I running that JP Morgan invented? What keyboard am I typing on that Goldman Sachs manufactured? What car do I drive that has MADE IN WALL STREET stamped on it? NONE ..." Then I went on to say, "I can get a better deal if I fly to Ghana or Panama and start a business. There you are allowed a ten year tax free period, government grants and land and they even throw in citizenship. What does the Land of the Free and Home of the Brave offer?"

We have made the banking sector the focus of our entire economy because they have the self appointed privilege of issuing DEBT, not only on our behalf but on the behalf of our own bought-and-paid-for government. We have been conditioned to believe that DEBT is the only way we can survive and obtain a higher lifestyle. This is a major attribute of "false wealth" when we base our EMPIRE'S existence on the whims of bankers. Hence we have a monetary system based on the human condition and the unending demeanor of egotistical Napoleonic CEOs.

WHIMS OF BANKERS ... Think about that.

Of course. On the ipod, but requires a somber mood. Hadn't seen that video though, thx.

That's two great new reasons to watch Bloomberg:)

ALOHA !!

I ran across this article on HOME OWNERSHIP in the New York Times. This was a letter to the Editor dated April 12, 1908.

"This craze of home owning is widespread, and is especially rampant among naturalized Americans. It is one of the first impulses that they get after reaching this country. The reason is clear. The possibilities of home owning on the Continent are remote, with the result that the ownership of a home is a cherished longing....the children of many a family have grown up in want owing to the insatiable longing of the parents to own the home that they live in. They save nothing by it, but on the other hand run the risk of encumbering themselves with unsalable property. They have the delusion that they are not paying rent; but they are paying rent and probably more than they can afford.

The advice that I would give is to select a house or flat well within one's means and put the balance of the savings regularly in the bank. If an opportunity in another part of the country then comes one will not find his movements hampered by the necessity of maintaining an unprofitable investment. The American people are essentially nomadic. They cannot be otherwise, with new regions to exploit, new towns to found, and new opportunities to grasp."END

With each of these BUBBLES guess who owns more and more and who owns less and less?

In 1931, during the Great Depression, the phrase THE AMERICAN DREAM was first introduced. As we know that phrase was redefined by bankers in their marketing strategy to make more loans.

This was the original definition of the AMERICAN DREAM that the bankers did not like, since it had nothing to do with DEBT. From the book THE EPIC OF AMERICA by James Addams(1931) ...

"It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable, and be recognized by others for what they are, regardless of the fortuitous circumstances of birth or position.END

Sounds more like a repeat of the Declaration of Independence ... Of course the bankers do not like the Declaration of Independence or the US Constitution because both of those documents put the power of government and money in the hands of WE THE PEOPLE and not them. How can you make an easy buck that way?

So with the bankers corrupted version of the AMERICAN DREAM we get "social disorder" and "servitude".

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

BRCM - estimates, target increased. Estimates raised through 2010 at Friedman, Billings Ramsey. Channel checks suggest that the company's quarter ran at or above plan. Outperform rating and new $31 price target.

"Isn't it interesting that these major US banks get TARP when in reality they wouldn't even qualify for their own commercial loans, yet they are allowed to exist in this ANTI-DARWIN WORLD of banking fraud?"

One of the most profound statements ever posted on this blog. That just about sums up how much in control HB&B and their politico type buddies really are. Change is not coming soon. In fact, HB&B is becoming more powerful than anyone ever dreamed possible.

"Its as if these same major US Banks who took US taxpayer funds to survive actually want the US economy to fail. They act in a manner that is detrimental to our very survival."

did you post those quotes about global warming awhile back because you DO NOT believe them?

Dave Landry's thoughts for today:
"Random Thoughts:

Not much to report in the Ps--pretty much a flat day, likely kept in
check by option expiration.

The Nasdaq managed to close in the plus columns. This puts it at
new highs for the year.

The indices remain extremely overbought and due to correct.

Once again, it's the nature of this correction that will be
important. If it turns right back down then the topping scenario
remains in place. If it has a modest correction then goes on to
make new highs then obviously we'll have to return to the long
side.

As usual, one day at a time.

Not much has changed so far. The database continues to produce
numerous shorts and few meaningful longs. I'm still seeing short
side setups in a variety areas including but not limited to
Energies, Metals & Mining, Manufacturing, Selected Health Services,
Financials, and Leisure. Continue to wait for entries though!
That, in and of itself, might keep you out of trouble on new
potential positions.

Futures are firm pre-market."

As such, I'm noticing 2nd's bearish inner self for the day.

A breakout in the Sharky sentiment reading would confirm....

Thanks Bev. I threw out all the indicators. I just wanted this:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQD&p=D&b=3&g=0&i...

edit:

here's a 60 minute chart. Shows the battle lines drawn during the recent consolidation. High Yield starting to gain the upper hand again.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQD&p=60&yr=0&mn=...

If it's incorrectly drawn, please tell me...

"Change is not coming soon. In fact, HB&B is becoming more powerful than anyone ever dreamed possible."

Ahh yes, how true. But, I anticipate that soon the public will begin demanding a post-mortum on the causes of the meltdown. It will be interesting to watch as HB&B wriggles themselves out of yet another tight spot aided and abetted by our political elite.

Because to merely state that I find her attractive would be to be obvious, oafish and not at all playful.

How do you know I'm not referring to that dynamic duo....M.B. and Bernie Lo!

That's what I thought, man.

10:00 jmorris1950: I was trying to create a small entry position shorting DIA but you have no shares. Last Friday, I heard about someone who had a forced buyin on APPL. In your experience, is this typical because these are very liquid and I'm surprised there are so few shares to borrow.
10:03 chrism: yes DIA is hard to borrow---anytime you are short stock there can be a forced buyin - I wouldn't say it is typical or happens often but it does happen you need to be aware of that possibility
10:04 jmorris1950: So, DIA is usually hard? How about SPY, IWM, QQQQ?
10:04 chrism: spy is easy to borrow...
10:05 chrism: iwm is easy
10:05 chrism: and qqqq is hard to borrow
10:05 jmorris1950: OK, thanks for the help...
10:05 chrism: your welcome bye

Check out Tim Knight's comment re the DIA trend line:

http://www.slopeofhope.com/

.................

ALOHA !!

Yep, and you left out the main reason that Canadian banks are more stable than US banks are ...

Canada passed a law that prohibited poor people from entering into their country for any reason.

Any Canadians know what law that was?

I recall back in the 1960s and 1970s that Australia had some harsh laws on Immigration that prohibited poor and unskilled and certain ethnic minorities. Australia was much more protective of their borders than the USA was. I am not sure if that is still the case, but the Aussies have a huge shark infested moat surrounding their country, so not a lot of swimmers get through!

I faintly recall some sort of history lesson when I was going to college in Australia about a BLACK PIRATE in Western Australia some 200 years ago, who made a good living for himself in those times. I guess the Somalis read that chapter!

Any Aussies recall that?

G'day ...

I recall friends wanting to move to Australia in the 70's and they wouldn't accept an unmarried couple, so they had to tie the knot.

Almost all the places I would choose to move to have income requirements and in addition you have to deposit a certain sum in their banks.

We, on the other hand, take anybody, your rich but mostly poor, strong but mostly weak and dependent, your intelligent but mostly not so much. Seems to fit our profile better....

And of course we don't want anyone travelling where they might get the idea that we're not #1! We can't board a flight to Havana for instance....but we're the "land of the brave and home of the free"?

"The White House is being forced to acknowledge the wide gap between its once-upbeat predictions about the economy and today's bleak landscape.

The administration's annual midsummer budget update is sure to show higher deficits and unemployment and slower growth than projected in President Barack Obama's budget in February and update in May, and that could complicate his efforts to get his signature health care and global-warming proposals through Congress.

The release of the update - usually scheduled for mid-July - has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town on its August 7 summer recess."

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090720/D99I4A0G0...

You know, I voted for Obama - not because I was in love with most of his policies but because (in my opinion) I knew we wouldn't survive another 4-8 years of Republican rulership. I didn't vote for Bush (either one) and knew for sure that he would be bad news when he started out his term by naming industry lobbyists and insiders to head the various government departments.
He proceeded to exceed my wildest dreams... I think any sense of integrity, honesty and sense that the gov't still exuded was destroyed in his two terms of office.

I didn't really like any of the candidates for office in '08 except for Dennis Kuchinich and Ron Paul -- they had many of the same attributes -- but added my vote to Obama's to help assure a non-Republican winner and because - now that he was the only one and I was focusing on him - he said all the right things -- just what you wanted to hear after all those horrible years.

I've been giving him a lot of rope and I think he cares at least a little for the bulk of us Americans, but it is becoming obvious that he has either sold his soul to be president or things are way out of his control - it's probably some of each.

His administration is continuing all the Bush policies of non-transparency and intrusion and is trying to quickly ram major changes down our throat. Why?

Why does healthcare have to be accomplished so fast? It's a major change and really needs to be thought out carefully, not put forth as quickly as possible. How does this need for speed correlate with the mandatory swine flu shots that are being set up for the fall? There seems to be some sort of agenda where this flu is concerned. I'm getting off track now, but so much of what is going on is baffling and makes no obvious sense - and now the Obama administration seems as untruthful as the Bush one - where does that leave us?

ALOHA !!

A lot of volatility makes for a foggy road ...

Seems to me the USDX has been fighting with the all important 80 level a lot lately. The US TAX REVENUES BREAKDOWN in combo with the US TREASURY STATEMENTS are a powerful fundamental force weighing heavy against the US Dollar, which is not talked about much in FX circles, but I am sure China sees it and all the other major US DEBT holders do as well. Fundamentals are not totally useless and in fact have put me into some of the most profitable trends in my life. But you have to know when to exit and I do not see a reason to exit any time soon on a long term basis.

The ASX and a smaller degree the AUD have been like a rocket over the past week or so, mainly on the back of some IMF upgrades and China growth rates as well as the Asian share markets(EEM).

All I have done in terms of trading of late is add another 20,000 shares of SLR(ASX) last ASX Friday at $0.63AUD. That makes 220,000 shares with an average buy-in of $0.21AUD(or $0.13USD).

I have done no trading on the TSX or the US markets ...

EH?

Dennis Gartman follows closely the Ratio of the Coincident to Lagging Indicators issued by the Conference Board to determine a potential exit from any recession. That Ratio (Coincident/Lagging) turned up by the barest of margins last month (May) and did so again for June.

According to Gartman that Ratio is almost always a precusor to the end of a recession. That's not been opinion but that information taken alongside with Richard Russell's PTI Indicator moving up and above it's moving average, I have to respect the long side of this current market.

I've been thinking it should be going down due to all the same reasons as Kaimu especially the compounding of the total Federal debt and the problems attendent with that debt. Plus it's been extremely hard to make money on the short side of the market.

what about SRL and PEM? You still holding these two Kaimu?

took a little off the table to book some gains. Holding the rest to see the reaction to any increase in volume.

Also looking for macd bearish cross on the daily time frame to sell the rest of my positions. in no rush.

Where will prec metals, SLW, UXG be a month from now?

Canada.
Immigration has never been easy.
Chinese and Indan labor built this country, but anglos still made it costly and difficult for them to come. The notorious head tax $200 mentioned here for sikhs and $500 for chinese, and they worked for pennies a day. Talk about determination and grit. They hang onto what they've got, and don't like debt. They spend money very carefully and judiciously. Good capitalists. How about that!

http://www.sikhpioneers.org/koma.html
http://www.sikhpioneers.org/t_canphot.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Chinese_im...

Today anglos complain that they can't get in, because of quotas. Yes, Chinese investment into downtown Vancouver and environs has made this city what it is today. Locals did not have the capital to do what's been done. HK people had the vision and capital.

Our lives are much richer in this city for having these two groups of souls on board.

buck has rallied intraday. I'd be happy to see that tank going into closing.

short term bond auctions coming up at 1pm.

that'd knock the S&P down

Kaimu

Not an Aussie, but you’re correct on the harsh laws on immigration in the 60’s-70’s.

Not a big museum type; however, recently took 45 minutes out of a rainy day in Melbourne to check out the Immigration museum covering history of immigration to Australia. There were acknowledgements of past historical discrimination including groups you mentioned in the 60’s-70’s. They actually had some video tapes (perhaps reenactments) of immigration interviews in this time period. The tape would stop and ask viewers to guess whether the applicants were welcomed to Australia or rejected. Then the answer would come with reasons cited. Recall there were a number of harsh, discriminatory rejections based on the policies of the time.

That said, I was very impressed with the diversity today in Sydney and Melbourne. Heck, I was impressed with Australia as a whole. Quite a country, very friendly people, with great natural resources.

(FD: Been holding FXA since late Jan, early Feb as previously posted. IMO, monthly cash distribution is a bonus .)

BTW, Kaimu, thought you had ECU over on the TSX?

look at the spike in volumes over the previous couple of days.

S&P 500 APPEARS HEADED TO 1000 LEVEL... The market is off to a strong start for the week. As a result, the S&P 500 is retesting its summer high at 956 as shown in Chart 5 (see box). An upside breakout appears likely. That would put the next upside target at its early November peak near 1000. That would also represent a 50% rally from its March low at 666.

[John Murphy Stockcharts.com]

to satisfy requirements on government programs... This will probably be accomplished by the usual routes... Would probably put any additional shares/warrants in the .70 cent range... will establish a position soon, as the company is making good strides... I like the support the Obama team is establishing for this area...

"TD Ameritrade joins a group of firms that have agreed with regulators to buy back billions of dollars worth of the illiquid securities...TD Ameritrade joins eleven underwriting securities firms and another downstream broker, Fidelity Investments, in resolving allegations that they misrepresented auction-rate securities as liquid, short-term investments, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&si...

Charles Schwab & Co. remains a holdout and has decided to defend themselves in court rather than settle.

http://www.beaconpower.com/solutions/frequency-reg...

interesting multimedia app on the company's technology Baz.

sold most of amag, sold genz, gsi, celg, msft, uxg...

2nd.....
thats what I thought about the run to 950ish from ~880ish. Stopped me out twice on the short side b/c of it. Remember Gann?(thats a weak attempt of a joke). :)

Assume a consolidation/correction somewhere and we carefully monitor 2nd et al's target of 1000+ then SPNG could be a sweet play for a second dance.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=...

BB's tightening up, indicating movement in one direction or another to come.

Parabolic SAR has yet to flip.

MACDh moving positively but not yet in positive territory.

Only issue is decreasing volume. My guess is that traders are waiting for a correction before stepping in. Or its accumulation on the sly.

I'll be making a move on this one if the S&P holds tomorrow.

JMTCW

Bev - thanks for sharing your insight. A lot of your comments seem very level-headed (free of positional bias).

I would agree with you that all eyes are on S&P 1,000 right now. At the same time I am also keeping an eye on the S&P 500 200-day SMA which stands at about S&P 913 (which we gapped over and ran hard above last Wednesday). I think that gap up was succesful in inciting a lot of panic and short covering but I think we will need some consolidation before we head for 1,000. If the majority of the buying right now is by those who are trapped it is very hard to get

I personally think we will need to at least go down and touch the 200-day SMA (currently around 913 - but could of course be higher by the time we touch it) to confirm support before we can hit 1,000. This could of course happen AFTER we print a new high (above 956) which would likely kick off another wave of short covering as a move above 956 could hit lots of short stops.

Hate to do this to CRS - a company whose fundamentals I like - but the chart is what it is...

Posted mostly for technical discussion rather than trading advice. I'd guess it's in play if it fails to hold, say, $19.00

didn't see your remarks on SPNG TOF. Cool. Looks like its still hot to trot.

Don't know what to say for the POG and the S&P coming opening tomorrow. Perhaps the correction waits.

BB's have tightened up on the $USD. Is this a big plunge coming?

http://tinyurl.com/mjo9no

End of day tally for the $USD

edit: ooops I'm lost. It's what, 2.30pm, so that was a 2pm snapshot of the USD.

CNBC journalist invited to the GS HQ's for a proverbial kneecapping:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1188611537&p...

As our politicians bail out the banksters, we get the bill. It's much better than the Chicago mob during prohibition. There a product actually was being produced and sold i.e. alcohol, with political protection for the mob. Today the politicians just invent money and put the citizens into increasing debt. no beer for you!

By Dawn Kopecki and Catherine Dodge

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. taxpayers may be on the hook for as much as $23.7 trillion to bolster the economy and bail out financial companies, said Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The Treasury’s $700 billion bank-investment program represents a fraction of all federal support to resuscitate the U.S. financial system, including $6.8 trillion in aid offered by the Federal Reserve, Barofsky said in a report released today.
....

http://tinyurl.com/nvczkh

Hasbro is a long time pick of David Gardner over at TMF:

recent remarks from my soon to expire subscription:

"If our discussion boards and My Scorecard results are any indication, Stock Advisor members have either forgotten or don't give a hoot about long-time recommendation Hasbro (NYSE: HAS). That's a shame. Like its iconic Transformers brand, we think this sleepy toymaker is about to morph into a much more powerful profit machine. Young CEO Brian Goldner is busy inking licensing deals for some of Hasbro's most valued intellectual property. This summer will feature a sequel to the 2007 blockbuster Transformers, as well as a G.I. Joe movie. Also in the works are more movies, video games, and a Trivial Pursuit-themed TV show. We see serious potential for Hasbro's stock that goes way beyond its 3% dividend yield. Clearly, there's more to Hasbro than meets the eye."

.

Aha! I'll reply to this post so you can't edit it again! :)

I was talking about the dollar tanking.

Why can't the dollar tank... HARD.... before we reverse course?

But then again, Ben "the chopper" speaks tomorrow, and from what I hear he's not too keen on dropping money from the sky anymore. Maybe you're right, but I'd be betting on the market tanking when he starts speaking at 10am.

He's also before Congress on Wednesday, so perhaps he doesn't crap the market for a session or two.

Bev,

Looks like a lot of tomorrow's direction will be based on Texas Instruments earnings reported after market close today. I saw they got an upgrade from underperform to hold this morning from Jefferies & Co. Interesting they are given an upgrade prior to reporting earnings. Very suspicious timing for an upgrade IMO - wondering if this play wasn't called in from the sidelines.

"...wondering if this play wasn't called in from the sidelines"

INTERESTING!

They're using the ETF's to run this mess....look at the underlying and they are flat or coming down, esp. financials.
Maybe trying to run to 956 before the close, then take profits AH and tomorrow?

I'm not a mind reader but I play on on TV.

Edit: normally I'd buy into this move but TLT is holding and TBT is flat too.
If it's the real thing wouldn't TBT move up and TLT fall?
Seems like there are buyers of TLT (or holding) and none for TBT.

insider leaks to keep the party going? unethical but at least gives us some indications of game play...

didn't notice that Craig. C and BAC getting punished. haha it's funny that GS is getting blasted on TV yet its C and BAC getting blasted in the markets.

Throw the dog a bone.

Yep Les, I was trying to figure how XLF get's run up while GS is a buck off the high and C and BAC are getting it behind the woodshed.

CASINO.

...

I am guessing response to aapl earning will determine this rally's fate.

But attached is the bullish action of SLW on the 15 min charts. notice two ascending triangle breakouts, a successful backtest of the breakout yest, then a gap up today. Waiting for the next breakout or break down.

But with these gaps, it provides a lower risk trading strategy short term. Also lets see if she can close above the 50 day = $9.01

BIll,

Thanks for the rockin' pick hgsi...making my summer.

CP- Starting to reload here.

...

BillySundance

Yes... they would say that...and I can hear the Crammer Sell Button go off SELL...SELL...SELL

jmorris1950

You are soooo right...and this is one trade where I love those looooooooong red candles! ;-)

I had to peel off 40% of my long in SPY from just last week in my long term account after a almost parabolic rise this past week.

Just trying to be somewhat prudent...or at least honest.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/eurusd716/?camp...

Euro to move another leg up to target of 1.49. Will see if Twiggs' concurs sooner or later.

Need to see the Euro push decisively through 1.41 - presently 1.42 - hopefully holding.

TOF -"Just trying to be somewhat prudent...or at least honest"

Well that would automatically disqualify you from HB&B's broker internship program.

Are you still riding MTW? looks like it got a good updraft today from the CAT news.

The App Market Will Be As Big As The Internet In 2020
http://tinyurl.com/n4kh3m

What Phones Do People Dump For iPhone?
http://tinyurl.com/mbkgu6

Disclosure: No AAPL position

Another Korean company, Hyundai, was written up in the current Barron's, as it has gained market share. It also has benefited from the devaluation of the Korean won.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB12478693395996...

"Ordinarily, at this point I would gather a list of Paulson's quotes and parse through them like a competent journalist might, but for someone who relies on writing to "earn a living" it would be professional suicide to make a conscious effort to sit and physically type any of his sentences. Listening to them was enough. The ugly assemblage of half-truths, obfuscations, smarmy evasiveness and prickly showboating would have embarrassed Bernie Madoff. But it wasn't Bernie Madoff. It was a former United States Treasury Secretary."

from Kevin Depew at Minyanville

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/GS-five-things...

Bill you get a chance to hear him Test-O-Lie last week?

Ok, here's my thoughts on where things are going.

a) the market is manipulated - and it's effective, and done well
b) everything is tied together. the dollar, treasuries, gold, and the S&P
c) for one to go up, others must go down

The Fed is staging a juggling act. There is no way they want treasuries to fall very far. Yet if the S&P really spikes up, treasuries will fall.

So it is my belief that the Fed wants things to remain in a range. High enough to allow banks to issue stock, but not so high that treasuries tank and gold & oil move through the roof. The "goldilocks" level - more or less where it is now.

How do they do this? They burn the shorts using periodic head fakes below support and "surprising" rallies, and cool off the longs when things get too high (and treasuries start to get hit). And HB&B makes bucks selling OTM S&P puts to people like me.

I don't think there will be a real breakout. Now I'm not confident to go all in short here, but I'm absolutely not about to buy this breakout, if one occurs. And the higher things go, I believe the more likely we are that the next move will be down.

Bottom line: the Fed and the Treasury cannot afford to have an equity market rally. That would hurt bonds.

FD: long PM, short builders & retail

ALOHA !!

Well the first batch of FREE FLOWERS went out today via FEDEX. All together we are sending out around 35. We will ship others on Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

IT FEELS GOOD ...

What I got from the messages was that there are some real live people out in America who are in real despair, some even suicidal, RIGHT NOW! We are sending flowers to people of all walks of life, except the homeless, since FedEx does need an address. There are families where both spouses lost their jobs and the kids are suffering. There are struggling single Mothers and struggling military families with relatives on duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some 90 year old widows and people who have lost their savings due to illness. People in America are hurting like never before. I certainly feel it with my own family.

What struck me was the largest proportion of the FREE FLOWERS were going to distressed people in the more upper class cities and a lot went out to my former home in the San Francisco Bay Area, cities like Milpitas, San Jose, Palo Alto and San Bruno, that's in the high tech zone. We also sent flowers to more well known poverty belts like Detroit and Appalachia.

So right here in the CARA COMMUNITY, people here and their families and friends are suffering. You do not need to get on a plane to Detroit or New Orleans its HERE!

You know if you think this will blow over I am here to tell you that it never has and never will. I spent four years in homeless shelters in the late 1980s and they were always full even back then. Clearly the US Census shows that poverty levels here in America has not improved since the 1960s even after spending trillions of dollars over the past few decades.

So the system is broken for a lot of Americans now and many have given up HOPE of ever having a Middle Class life again. If you do not believe me then go to your local homeless shelter or food bank and take a look around, or maybe even volunteer some of your time. You never know you may even run into a neighbor or classmate from high school or ex-girlfriend or, God forbid, your own brother or sister.

We cannot wait for the politicians to debate issues.
We cannot wait for politicians to become ethical and honest.
We cannot wait for markets to be fair.
We cannot wait for harmony in the World.
We cannot wait ... We cannot wait for them to CHANGE.

WE MUST CHANGE!

You can never "vote for" CHANGE or HOPE. Such things do not exist! You must make the CHANGE by stopping the insanity that has ruled our lives and this country for so many decades now. What other word can describe where America is now other than "insanity"? The insanity has always been voting a two party system ...

Leave the INSANITY behind for once ...

ABANDON THE INEPT ... Let Darwin take care of them for once!

QUESTION AUTHORITY ... especially if it has a Harvard degree in Economics or MBA or works at Goldman Sachs!

They need us more than we need them ... They are way overdue for a lesson in humility. WE THE PEOPLE are the only ones that can teach them ... Isn't it obvious yet that nobody else can? Who then? The SEC? Congress? Dream on ...

REVOLUTION ... its our RIGHT!

Mahalo ...

Craig, Thanks for the link. I agree that practice is more than just time spent on the cushion. So today when we got 44bp improvement to bond price and I see two clients' target rate appear in range, I pause (mind the gap) look at the clock (have til 3:30 unless other changes land) check a report or two. Complete the request. We can only operate with the information at hand. Avoiding greed may not be familiar. Sleep comes easier if you can manage that. (If tomorrow the price is better, the next client may benefit. I've done what I can today with what I have.)

>>When it comes to the WORLD OF DEBT it boils down to WHO YOU KNOW ... not WHAT!

>>How long will that business model last?<<

Unfortunately, THAT particular business model (while ocasionally waxing and waning) has held firm for millenia! (lo, even into prehistory)… And not just WRT debt…

Even though S&P is higher now than it was on June 26 (when it closed at 919), the total up volume on NYSE is only marginally higher. If one plots $NYUPV at stockcharts.com and looks at its 15-day MA, as suggested by Brian Pretti in http://www.financialsense.com/Market/pretti/2009/0..., one gets the value of 598 as of today's close. Brian notes that this moving average was rarely below 650, and "every single instance of this occurrence, with the exception of the November 2008 lows, was a warning sign of a deteriorating macro equity market to come (i.e., a major sell-off)." So it is probably unwise for investors now to commit new capital now to the market in the hopes of a breakout in S&P above 940 implying a medium-term market strength. I am almost totally hedged right now, with only a slight long balance. For example, my total portfolio grew only a few percentage points during the last 5 trading days. If S&P rises above 1000, then I'll sell a good chunk of my long positions and as a result will become net short.

David- I happened to read Hussman's Monday update before reading your comments. My take was that different trading strategies require different 'responses' to the market. Day trading is purely driven by 'trade what you see, not what you think.' Whereas longer time frames require some kind of 'trade what you think' approach. Hussman is not a day trader.

It's also possible for a trader to have more than one pot on the stove- you can fry (and preferably consume) an omelet in 60 seconds + have oxtails simmering for 6 hours on the same range top.

One can also be short-term bearish and longer-term bullish on the same day and play both much the same way>> ie, pancakes ultrashort face down on the griddle just waiting to be flipped over onto the ultralong side.

A good cook (or trader) needs to be versatile.

http://tiny.cc/erf3W

KB has been on the rise as sun starts shining

vanillabean, TXN has been on a tear for 10 days!!! Actually, it still looks good from a technical stand point and just broke out of an ascending wedge as well. That said, I have difficulty chasing a stock and would wait for a pullback. Ha! that barely happened with TCK(these charts are quite similar).

I love to hear when Cramer bashes a stock I'm holding, MTW has a weak balance sheet but a few equipment orders could make for a happy day or three... Beware when Cramer gives a thumb's up... Earnings report on this baby is the 27th after market close, maybe it rallies into earnings? Watch for gaps down that get closed the same day, a bullish sign.

BTW, I'm hearing that 3rd quarter earnings estimates for the broad market are likely to surprise to the upside.

thanks cp and 2nd. I will hang tight and watch close tomorrow. Just re reading todays news and comments. I was watching the market when I could today and it was quite an exciting day.

I had a good day, in fact, I am once again at my all time high for the last 12 months. The last 3 times I got to this point, I didn't take profits.

I hope tomorrow I play it right this time. I still have a little more (dry powder) on the side.

One question, what is fxp ?

vb

new to me.

Congressmen from Florida rips into Paulson.

http://tinyurl.com/ltq59v

Craig- Talk about a "tell". My Dad and I used to watch This Old House on PBS YEARS ago...and here I am. I never would have thought my life's work would be much the same.

Transports and heavy industrials were very strong today. Me thinks that bodes well in the short term. CAT was off the charts.

I see Redbox has signed a distribution agreement with Sony. This might give the parent company (Coinstar) a bit of a bump tomorrow?

7/21/09
" Sony Corp.'s Sony Pictures and Redbox Automated Retail LLC have signed a multiyear deal to supply Redbox's video rental kiosks with Sony films, underscoring Hollywood's growing acceptance of the kiosk rental model.

The deal allows Redbox, a unit of Bellevue, Wash.-Coinstar Inc., to purchase titles directly from Sony"

RE:>CAT - And a weaker dollar brings us full-circle on recent Chinese interest in increasing gold reserves. What better way is there to preserve one's wealth?

You're closer to touching my sentiments CP on what the Fed will wanna do as opposed to juggling this goldilocks scenario.

Everyone knows the jig is up on the US selling foreign debt. Russian's, Chinese - anyone with reserves (I imagine Australia on this list as well as they can see the greenback will tank against Australia's positive economic outlook this year) are putting on the breaks on debt purchases. Hell, the Japanese may have been caught trying to flog off another 100 billion in that most discrete den of markets, switzerland, in order to meet their liquidity needs.

So you're the Fed. What do you do? The same as what everyone did the last time round and the only thing that bring balance to the American economy and raise significant amounts of capital. You follow the "beggar thy neighbour" principal. Devalue your currency. Hunt down foreign tax evaders. Make circumstances right for domestic industrial production to reoccur. Force domestic savings, beginning by paying down debt (although admittedly HB&B continues to screw with this by continuing to fleece homeowners with refi scams - sooner or later Congress, the public or both will say "stop"). Sooner or later, someone in Washington is going to challenge Chinese mercantile policy of "no imports unless its made in China".

The ace in the PM's market is, as we now recognise, that fraud of the highest level is being committed to suppress gold and silver prices and that, in my opinion, is where efforts will continue to be made by HB&B and the Fed.

Dollar be damned.

Placing a sell short stop limit order with stop at $56.50, limit at $56. FCX has not had a good down day in 9 sessions -- I think its rally is a bit overdone, both short-term and since January 20, 2009 (FCX has almost tripled since then).

Dave,

I think you are right on the mark. I have been and will continue trading between TBT (sold last week) and TLT (added to last week) and on a longer term basis adding and subtracting in my all Ts mutual WHOSX. Also parking cash in Vanguard GNME VFIIX and holding bullion.

I have a small list of equities to buy on big down moves.

Life is too short (for me) to watch a jumping bean market all day.