[7:37am ET] On Sunday, I opened the Week In Review with the observation that equity market indexes are at four-week lows, and that a topping process may be underway. I proffered the talking point, hard landing of soft.
This morning, technical analyst Colin Twiggs opined, “A number of major indexes now signal a secondary correction. The third quarter has ended, but risk remains elevated for the next two weeks. The Dow is also at the key resistance level of 10000, further increasing selling pressure. A general correction across most major markets is likely.”
As wealth protection is Job #1, I recommend you give some thought to this development. As for me, I am net short -7.0% equities, which may not seem much, but is an indication of my leaning. In other words, in the progression of steps the market takes, I believe it will be two steps down and one up for the next couple months, which is the definition of a soft landing.
Just as I am aware of the possibility that the next step could be up, giving the market a +2% to +4% lift, I am also aware that there could be a move down several steps at a time. Should I believe that to be starting, I shall increase the shorts.
What am I looking at for set-ups? There are many, but these six are key:
• Higher $USD, lower Euro
• Lower Crude Oil price
• Lower $SILVER and $GOLD price
• Higher Treasury Bond prices and lower yields
• Disappointing earnings & guidance as ~80% of S&P 500 corporations report over the next 4 weeks
• Large scale selling in selective issues like RIMM after seemingly unremarkable reports
As the week begins, there is nothing special happening in global capital markets this morning to suggest fast markets are likely or even in early stages of development. But, as Twiggs states, there are indications of a secondary (meaning intermediate-term) correction unfolding. Such a move is defined by analysts as one that could test the lows of the past 3 to 9 months, which could mean the S&P 500 index might move back to 990 (August), 880 (July) or 666 (March) levels.
So, is it hard landing or soft?
Have a good day.
Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Upgrades:
RIMM - to Buy @ Needham. PT = $85
SYT - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
New:
CCJ - CIBC Initiates Coverage with a Sector Perform
Put Call Ratio leaning spiking to Puts - Contra Indicator
Usually, not always, this has been a contra indicator. "majority cannot win" from Vadym. But it shows a lot of put buying recently. Will the markets punish this majority near term?
CIT Group
Bill - Did you see this:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33170393
ETFC
Sold all shares at $1.70 that I bought at $1.67 the other day...now all in cash in my ST account.
XLF bidding at Friday's high
...
Cara 100 Update
CSCO - PT Raised from $22 to $23 @ Auriga U.S.A. Hold
Economic data schedule for this week
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
Simmons - America in decline in a nutshell
Is this now the rule rather than the exception?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/05/business/economy...
ISM Services
watch out for the ISM Services reading if you're heavy on the short side...
Re: Simmons - America in decline in a nutshell
Thx for the video. Sums it up pretty well.
UNG just blew the shorts out of the water
Looking to short it myself today. 13 SMA on the weekly posing resistance.
Is it just me or is this a short squeeze? Want to short PH as it's fallen out of an ascending triangle. It went from oversold to overbought on the 15 min. chart in under 15 mins.
HND.to- adding @ $USD 4.53
At 60% of allocation.
SGEN - capitulation play?
sticking a bid in at 200 DEMA.
do your own homework.
Credit Suisse strategy as at Oct 5
• Strategically, we remain overweight equities-and think we could see 1,100 by year-end: a) lead indicators suggest US GDP growth of 6.4% on a quarterly annualised basis and we are convinced that core inflation will remain benign; b) earnings outlook is still positive: we expect 29% EPS growth in 2010E (US$76 EPS is our new target, up from US$71); c) investors are still sceptically positioned; d) most major credit and economic variables are better than pre-Lehman levels, when the market was at 1,252; e) the ERP is 5.4% on consensus numbers-some 16% cheap relative to our target of 4.5%.
• What would lead us to downgrade equities strategically? Two-year note yields rising significantly (we expect 2H 10 at the earliest); bank lending growth return aggressively, potentially causing a funding crisis; China's wage growth accelerating or US house prices falling more than 10%.
Off the books insider selling / fraud?
I wanted to bring to light what seems like fraud to me. A program by JPM called PRISM. Find the link over at Zerohedge.
Here is my summary - please note this is my interpretation:
1) Setup a PRISM plan *today* when you know things are bleak and lockin the sale effectively. You pledge the shares today, but you only deliver them to JPM when the contract is at maturity (1y,2y,5y). You have locked in your sale with JPM, and will participate partially on any upside at maturity. However, you still retain voting rights/dividends during the contract period. Insider sales are 100% blocked out - no market signal in JPM's terms.
2) You may be able to cancel the contract at any time. You would only cancel if things got much much better, or even if they stayed the same. The SEC isn't going to prosecute you for insider trading if you cancelled your intention to sell and kept the shares.
3) If things go south fast, or an adverse event happens, you've already signed up to the program to sell so you're A-ok, since you've already in effect sold. If things don't go south, just cancel the contract.
Does anyone else find this a UNBELIEVABLE? Of course everyone in any bank should signup, since they are all bankrupt! How many banksters have already "sold" (sorry "pledged") their shares and we won't know about it for 1 year, 2 year or whatever contract they've signed?
Latest escapade of the blood sucking squid
Nothing has changed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
It seems the trick to this dodge is making the CEO rich in the bargain - that way, he'll go along with anything.
Les- It looks like ALL shorts are being squeezed
...
Nat Gas
Anyone here have a clue on what's going on in natural gas land? Bloomberg shows the spot dropping to $2.3 on friday and yet futures is trading at almost $5. Do producers normally sell at spot or the future? I am short and getting killed this morning.
Re: Latest escapade of the blood sucking squid
Just picking up on the same news Number2son. These guys will bring down the United States in a big heap to make a buck. GS knew CIT would default again - after all GS does have a reputation for thinking ahead of the curve.
I just had a vision in my mind of the closing scenes of "Fight Club".
UNG - short at 11.78. Hoping to hold thru Friday
I chickened out of the 3X SPY bear on Wednesday for a couple of bucks when the big drop was afterwards, so I'll try to hold this time. UNG 13 SMA on weekly has proven resistance. I'll be watching to see how UNG reacts to the 20 dma on the 60 min. chart. UNG did bounce of the 200 dma on the 60 min. on Friday. I'll be watching to see if it does the same this time.
Re: SGEN - capitulation play?
changed order to a buy limit above the 10 AM price. Long at 11.16
Sell limit 15, max pain price
Re: Nat Gas
I'm sure there's a rhythm to NGas futures, but I haven't figured it out yet. The one thing I have figured out is to try opening positions on extreme moves, and to backstop myself with small position sizes. At 60% of allocation, I have only 3.6% of my trading portfolio at risk. This helps to even out the volatility, and keep emotions out of the trade. And gives me exposure to the occasional large gain. At least, it works for me.
GE, PLD
Bought GE at $15.72 and PLD at $11.39. Thinking they have sold off a little excessively the past week or so. PLD is a REIT and is down from the $40 to $70 range in 2004 to 2007. They have been able to do a lot of refinancings
Re: Put Call Ratio leaning spiking to Puts - Contra Indicator
Just curious, how fresh or relevant is this data? Were is it coming from? Can it be manipulated?
Thanks for reporting this.
Re: Nat Gas
I got screwed on this. Looking for a way out. It just puzzles me cuz the spot is so low and future expires in less than 1 month. Will the spot converge upward to the future or future go down to converge to the spot?
Re: Put Call Ratio leaning spiking to Puts - Contra Indicator
As of this morning. That jpg was a screen shot from Stockcharts.com. go there and enter $CPCE.
Roubini, Meredith Whitney, etc
Ever notice how they lead these people out when the market goes down 3% or so? I've seen Roubini's mug on pretty much every major media outlet over the past 24 hours. It's fascinating to me...not that I really care in terms of my investments...
Morning action
USD: http://bit.ly/31ReWl
Put Call: http://bit.ly/4XmJo
ISM: http://bit.ly/1615w3
Ratcheting up the short squeeze...
..
Re: HND.to- adding @ $USD 4.53
Is that the same as "Horizons Betapro Nymex Nat Gas Bear Plus" ? In my TD Ameritrade account I have a symbol of HBNNF, shows a 52 week low of $4.47 and that is also the low for the day. A few minutes ago I placed a limit order at $4.50 and got filled at $4.40. Go figure. These pink sheet stocks are always a little crazy.
Taking FAZ/SRS/SSG out for a spin
...
Les,
Any insight, in your part of the globe, on RTP and BHP ? tia..
Re: Les,
Switzerland has no natural resources baz, so I can't help you there :)
I'll give my sister a call. Her hubby can tell me whether RTP is advancing engineering projects, which is his domain.
Hear, this am., that cash in mutual's is at a yearly low...
if retail is not interested, how much further can institutional push the avreages ? Quants will have to reverse the trend soon...
Re: Les,
Thanks, Les... sorry, but thought you were in Dundee land.. my bad.... ps... thanks for insight you have given this board...
FYI
The 8 & 20 EMAs on the chart I made from Friday's Cara Trading notes have crossed.
http://tinyurl.com/ydz7tm6
Re: Hear, this am., that cash in mutual's is at a yearly low...
Bazz, just to clarify, wouldn't yearly lows in cash levels mean that retail is fully interested/invested? The conclusion is the same though, no additional mutual fund cash for additional buying pressure...
Re: Hear, this am., that cash in mutual's is at a yearly low...
Papa, that, too, was my take... from what I could gather, hardly any new cash has been taken in... i am trying to get more information... thanks for input.
S&P looking for intraday breakout
But Nasdaq underperforming, indicating more likely scenario is a range day.
Re: Les,
I reckon Kaimu or Chris over in Perth would be in know on their activities. But the last time I heard of RTP and BHP in the news was when BHP bailed out RTP with some sort of joint venture on the iron ore deposits over in the Nth West Aust. The Chinese were trying to get into bed with RTP with a big wad of cash at a time when credit conditions were atrocious.
Those credit conditions eased yet the Chinese (Chinalco I think it was) continued to pursue a large stake in RTP, which was unfortunately for them rebuffed when BHP came up with its joint venture (I assume it was accompanied with cash or other liquidity provision). As Kaimu has pointed out with SLR, these companies that can fund operations with self-generated revenues are going to come through a possible commodities slump next year better than those leveraged to the gills. I guess that RTP and BHP will make it safely through such lean times as long as RTP has its debt issues sorted out.
And if the Chinese as consumer were trying to take a controlling interest in an Australian producer, you know what that means. The future is just as bright as ever for Australian iron ore.
GLD breaking out
GLD is no longer in the "lower highs" state - it broke out just 10 minutes ago, probably helped by the drop in the buck.
SLV is not doing quite as well, having dropped farther in the move down.
gold price spiked passed
gold price spiked passed 1010....
Sold my position in GSS and AUY before the spike...
I'm lost.... :(
papa..... Equity fund inflows for week ending 9/30
$ 430 million.... for week ending 9/23 = 1.2 billion... outflows about nil.. will start looking for total year data...
PLD
added a bunch more at $11.48. Average now $11.44. LT Debt is not due until 2014. This could be a good long term hold if you are looking for something that could potentially give you a yield above 15% and a return of 200 to 300% at normal cycle highs.
I do not believe the Oct Correction will be denied
I see 2 potential scenarios:
Under the 1st a break will occur by tomorrow to about S&P 1000 followed by a recovery through Oct expiry to a top;
Under the 2nd the break will not occur until after the top at about the Oct expiry.
Options Earnings Plays
If you want to gamble, some interesting options plays are:
BAC - earnings 10/16 (friday option exp)
GE - earnings 10/16 (friday option exp)
GOOG - earnings 10/15 (thursday before friday option exp)...i'm still trying to confirm this earnings date...
Les, reading fascinating story about Baosteel (out of China)
and their investments in secondary ore producers in Australia, setting up for possible port development, and ( less ? ) reliance on RTP...,, especially after the " bribery " scandle this summer and dispute over prices... is a Forbes write-up..
Re: Les, reading fascinating story about Baosteel (out of China)
Thanks baz, Forbes has a few stories there to feed the interested investor. Seems the Chinese are playing hard with Australian miners by turning to Brazil as a result of failed negotiations. Here's an index search of Forbes for Baosteel:
http://search.forbes.com/search/find?searchtype=x&...
OK, found your Baosteel story. Seems the Chinese don't take no for an answer, do they. Good on them for challenging the mining interests.
Re: HND.to- adding @ $USD 4.53/ OFF @USD 4.5269
Out for now. Includes positions opened higher.
Re: Taking FAZ/SRS/SSG out for a spin/ OFF all positions
Time to get out of the way.
Re: Les, reading fascinating story about Baosteel (out of China)
Hi All - SID a Brazilian iron producer has been treating me well since a June re-entry. Found this one back in 2007 based on the iron, but also they are one of the larger tin producers. Happy Trading
Re: HND.to- adding @ $USD 4.53/ OFF @USD 4.5269
UNG losing support. 20 dma on 5 min chart now resistance. Just dropped through 50 dma and testing it as resistance now. Rolling over on RSI & MACDh on 60 min. chart.
edit: I'm out and waiting for the end of session. 15 min. has several candlesticks with long lower shadows, while MACDh is negative. Suggests some buying pressure to play out during the afternoon. 20 & 50 converging on 5 min.,looks bullish intraday.
kudos to 2nd for making the right call up front ;)
Noront and Freewest
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Freewest-R...
This is an interesting situation. I know many of the players.
Re: Hear, this am., that cash in mutual's is at a yearly low...
proudpapa,
"...wouldn't yearly lows in cash levels mean that retail is fully interested/invested? "
I don't think so. This would be so if they were in the habit of switching between a family of funds, but I should think when many individuals sell a mutual fund the cash most often returns to them. At least that is the way I work it.
While I have a large portion of my money in mutuals I shuffle between several individual funds. Very little cash is in m/mkts — I prefer a GNMA fund which pays a better return. I suppose technically you could say I am fully invested, but I don't consider it "invested" when there any more than if in m/mkt — just resting:-)
Good video about Bank upgrades
If banks as trading vehicles do it for you, watch this video. Christopher Whalen interviewed by BNN, talks about COF and their retail exposure (dreadful credit card business). He has a few good names of "the righteous ones" banks that are strong and do the right thing (BOH - in Kaimuland) and CFR. Good ideas for very low risk paired trades. He also says "Goldman is irresponsible" wrt today's upgrades.
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip220546#clip220546
Re: Hear, this am., that cash in mutual's is at a yearly low...
Hmm, maybe I misunderstood the subject line. I thought it was talking about cash position of mutual funds. Since mutual funds can't play short, the most bearish thing they can do is move to cash. If they have very low cash position within the mutual fund, that means the mutual fund is fully invested, i.e. bullish.
Guess it's a question of whether we are talking about mutual funds cash position or cash flows into mutual funds...
WIR follow-up
With the $USD weaker and the S&P up about +1% so far today, let's look at the stocks that are up +2%-4% and more. I gave you a good list in the WIR:
"If there is a market bounce, aided by a lower $USD, look for the steels to be hot: NUE, X, STLD, etc, as well as metals/energy related BHP and CCJ, plus chemicals DD and DOW, and silver and goldminers... These stocks have been hammered down, and once the $USD pulls back, if it does, there is room for a small bounce. There are doubts setting in regarding economic recovery stories, but for a week these stories can and will be suppressed... Of course, we believe that a rally here would present another opportunity to sell into strength."
Re the $USD, I gave you this heads-up: "...there may me a small recovery bounce for a few days before the next sell-off, I believe." The latter was actually a typo because what was in my head was that the $USD has been lifting a bit for a couple weeks and now I expect it to weaken a couple days before continuing on the short-term trend, which is up.
The problem is I write too quickly and never review like I should. I also get distracted like I just did listening to Landers of BlackRock, where as I was growing so incensed listening to the man I had to drop everything and lurch for the mute button. I cannot take any more of these people today. The Brazil story is being played for one reason only. It is a positive, a link to buyers who are greedy and ignorant of the humungous move already in those stocks, and these talking heads are playing the audience like a fiddle.
trades for today
The FCX did not behave nicely today. It opened down, triggered my sell short stop order at $65.84, and then moved up. But I am not worried -- the equities are topping and copper, a leading indicator of economic activity, is already in a downtrend. I just placed a sell short stop limit order on FCX a little below the morning high of $67.5 (stop at $67.4, limit at $67.35), so that I could do my work this morning and automatically short more FCX should it go below the morning high (a bearish intra-day sign).
On the bright side, F behaved nicely today and did not trigger my sell short stop order at $6.75. It is still there waiting for F. :)
Short Opportunity
This oversold bounce gives you an opportunity to go short the market. Since the 9/23 reversal, a low on 9/25 of 1041 has to be taken out for this rally to have any real legs. If not, we go down under 1000. We are currently around 1037 so if you start nibbling now, it should be a good risk/reward situation.
Re: WIR follow-up
ya I read that a couple of times but figured it out. Good call. Look at X! If we're going higher into bank earnings it might be a good vehicle. Sits at the bottom of the daily BB, RSI (7) at a very low 18 and rising.
In other news, Im staring at JWN and can't believe they are being raised to accumulate and up 8%.
How much further will THEY let gold go up?
seems like gold has dragged up several other dancers for this last song.
Re: WIR follow-up
Bill, something else you said was that if the rally wasn't that strong, volatility would decrease. As exemplified by VXX, so far that seems to be true. I'm guessing the premiums for puts is getting cheaper and cheaper.
NY Vol
595200, seems paltry
Re: How much further will THEY let gold go up?
NYU, the miners haven't followed. If the script is as Bill suggests, gold may just be pumped to let HB&B sell off their miners and enter short once again. Look at GDX and then look at GLD on the daily chart and you'll see what I mean. GLD today has benefitted from a couple of big breakouts, but its volume, while nice, isn't massive. Perhaps one last move for GLD above 100, say tomorrow, before the big USD rally?
Re: How much further will THEY let gold go up?
I noticed that disconnect too. Well if the USD has a hard stop at $75.xx, we are not too far away.
The only thing that worries me is earnings beating the very very low expectations set forth several qtrs ago. If co's cant beat that then I realize that is major trouble. but what if everyone beats the low expectations, wouldnt that put a floor under prices = soft landing?
shorted more FCX
I just glanced back at the screen and saw that my sell short stop limit for FCX was triggered at $67.42. To be consistent with the idea of trading what I see (rather than I hope for), I placed a buy to cover stop limit order a little bit above the morning high of $67.50 (which served as my "line in the sand" for shorting FCX), stop at $67.60, limit at $67.65. If FCX rises above the morning high again, then its intra-day chart will not look bearish, and there will be no reason to stay short FCX intraday. Let's see how this trade goes.
Edit: on a second thought, I decided to move up the buy to cover stop order to the daily high of $67.80, since FCX made what seems like a triple top there. I think that is a much better point to "throw in the towel" on shorting FCX intraday, for if it rises above THAT level, then its chart will definitely look bullish.
Steamroller Blues
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQYdCQSGl5A&feature...
JMO, of course. But were I short, I'd get out before the final stanza.
I better leave for awhile, before I smash the tv.....
can't take the bs anymore...
Re: I better leave for awhile, before I smash the tv.....
Don't get mad, get GLaD>>>>CEF looks good.
Re: I better leave for awhile, before I smash the tv.....
I'd suggest taking your emotions out of it...look at technical trends and buy trends...use stop losses or mental stop losses rather than emotional stop losses...
Jobs - Lagging Indicator???
We have seen two ISM reports of > 50 in the past few days: 52 and change on the manufacturing and 50.9 on the services (which is a much larger piece of the pie). These numbers are still trending up (yeah, the MFG number was down slightly from August but it is still up nicely from the bottom). With jobs numbers still bad but an improving production economy, I'd suggest that the jobs numbers are not leading indicators and shouldn't be heavily relied upon.
What do you all think?
Re: Jobs - Lagging Indicator???
tof- Haven't employment numbers always been considered a lagging indicator?
Re: I better leave for awhile, before I smash the tv.....
Thanks, guys... but I mean the constant parade of blowhards on bubvision... I just put it on the golf channel.. doing fine tradewise, but.... oh what the heck...
Re: Credit Suisse strategy as at Oct 5
Bill,
I'm wondering when you post forecasts by CS or GS or other HB&B, how much credence do you give them?
bought a little more SRS
Just bought a little more SRS at $10.11, 1/2 of the amount I sold on Friday at $10.61.
Re: I better leave for awhile, before I smash the tv.....
i hear you...i don't really listen to that stuff just because everyone has an agenda. i try to only listen to the people that i think don't have an agenda and even those people i don't really listen to them.
Re: Jobs - Lagging Indicator???
2nd - i couldn't agree more but the bears are making it a leading indicator in their rationale for shorting the market. i think that's risky biz...
Re: Jobs - Lagging Indicator???
What do I think?
If you're talking economy, I think it is all based on curing the alcoholic with another shot of booze. I know, old line, everyone says it, but that's what we're doing - we've got a debt problem that we're solving by encouraging folks to buy more by running up the government credit card even higher and handing out the cash to the government's favorite people.
People can't service the debt they have with their current incomes - and those incomes aren't going up anytime soon, so uncle sam is stepping in and handing out borrowed money right and left. This is a mistake, mis-prescribing the medicine for an inventory recession in an attempt to cure a credit bubble debt service problem depression. The "good times" we are seeing now is just borrowing from the future. I know, another old line, which I believe.
Shorter term, the more egregious stimulus programs are coming to an end, we are approaching the fall home sales season, and the "real economy" will be soon visible peeking out through the blanket of stimulus. My guess is, the real economy is much more parsimonious than the stimulated one, since all that debt folks have is still there, and now with even more government debt laden on top.
If you're talking market, it seems that the lower highs/lower lows condition, if it holds, says a correction (of some nature) is possibly upon us. Until that state gets violated and the buck breaks below its most recent low, I'm cautiously awaiting the trend change. I'm going to reload my shorts (other than my core positions) when I feel this current (one day old) rebound has run out of steam.
Re: Jobs - Lagging Indicator???
CIA world fact book suggest US manufacturing represents only 19% of GDP. Unless other countries take US exports (what? Ford Mustangs, Harley Davidson's and F-16 fighters?) then IMO employment remains a very important leading indicator.
However you do have a point. The US economy must retool to produce alternative manufacturing to replace the GM assembly lines that stand idle and houses that no longer need to be built. Unfortunately this will not be an overnight change and I am certainly not confident of seeing such retooling represented in GDP statistics anytime soon.
Unlike the tech crisis, this time the business community and the US consumer are tapped out with credit/debt issues and Uncle Sam is making the problem worse. There's no one but the Fed to create growth.
Rimm and Apple are not leading the charge today... yet..
watching Rimm fall for the past hour... will the quants reload the doube-barrel ?
Yum reports tomorrow. up almost 5% now
We'll see what tomorrow brings. I am sitting on cash for now.
Re: Rimm and Apple are not leading the charge today... yet..
Anyone buying this correction in RIMM? I think it might be a decent short term trade but my long term bullishness on AAPL tells me this is a dying brand. I wouldn't be surprised to see it at $40 in a year.
Re: Rimm and Apple are not leading the charge today... yet..
fyi - everyone i know who is still employed and has a blackberry is contacting me to be their personal iphone migration consultant. Some are waiting for the iphone on the verizon network and are committed to switch out of their blackberry asap.
EDIT: I cannot be the only one this is happening to.
Edit 2: I do miss the qwerty keyboard and the tactile feel. i got so good i could compose emails without looking at my phone on the blackberry pearl. but that is the only thing i miss.
Re: Rimm and Apple are not leading the charge today... yet..
Caveat: I don't own a blackberry or Iphone:
Over the weekend I heard a market call top pick on BNN. RIMM still leading business market, with new handsets coming.
Jim Huang Oct 2
president and portfolio manager,
T.I.P. Wealth Manager Inc.
Focus: North American equities and all caps
Top Picks:
ENCANA (ECA-T)
MANULIFE (MFC-T)
RIM (RIM-T)
Today on Minyanville, AAPL called the biggest bully, taking over from Microsoft.
Not game over for RIMM yet.
Re: Nat Gas
TH, according to http://intelligencepress.com/, the spot price jumped to $2.89 today.
UNG in broadening formation
http://thepatternsite.com/rabfa.html
I'll wait until tomorrow to see what the magicians' pull out of their hat. If as Bill suggests the dollar does a reversal shortly then UNG will fall - the indicators tell the story, the dollar gives holders of UNG some breathing space.
I like Patrick's idea of buying premium. Looking at UNG $12 Oct Puts - NO ONE is buying. Many are selling. These puts are half price from Friday's close. Going to purchase a couple tonight and more tomorrow if UNG can continue to rise.
Volume looks pathetic on SPY daily from where I'm standing. Night all.
Re: Rimm and Apple are not leading the charge today... yet..
I could be wrong (as I am not a paid wall st analyst) but the problem for rimm, not talking about stock price, is the demand for iphone is consumer/employee driven. What is an IT mgr to do? Spend x $ to buy latest Blackberry or spend zero and plug in employees iPhone?
Then there is the issue of software/applications. the appStore for apple is extensive and hard to displace at this point. Not impossible. just hard in a market where consumer credit is lacking.
Re: Rimm and Apple are not leading the charge today... yet..
either way that is some ugly price action in RIMM the past week or two.
Re: Nat Gas
"November natural-gas futures rose 28 cents, or 6%, to $4.99 per million British thermal units."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-drop-...
seems dollar + ISM survey = green shoots for energy.
Re: GE, PLD
Sold both at $15.80 and $11.53, respectively...
RIMM
Desk-Phone and BlackBerry
T-Mobile U.S.A. and BlackBerry-maker RIM have teamed up to offer the BlackBerry Mobile Voice System (MVS) to the wireless carrier's business customers. BlackBerry MVS integrates corporate PBX phone systems with RIM's BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES) so you can get all your calls -- desk or mobile -- via BlackBerry smartphone.
Looks interesting. Added to RIMM at the close.
Re: Nat Gas
Les
The natgas market is primarily a north american market.
The $US has little or no impact on pricing unless you are Cdn.
I personally think the worst is over other than some short term blips, and no, I don't think it will sky rocket from here.
Re: RIMM
That makes a few of us - sitting on nice 200 week support here
Re: Jobs - Lagging Indicator???
Well, we've heard it a lot, but with the huge losses we now have (BLS data is pure BS) no one can convince me that without millions of added jobs we will see genuine economic improvement.
We need 1.3 million just to keep up with the growth of the (legal) additions to the work force.
More job losses mean more mortgage defaults by what were qualified purchasers.
Still the market can levitate on additional injections of hot air for a long time.
It seems to me jobs are the key and a leading indicator. What they are indicating to me is a global pandemic downer.
Bill Gross has just announced he likes LT treasuries.
' LBO artists get away with murder..
they are allowed to deduct interest expenses of a business,and often borrow more money to pay themselves a slightly taxed dividend. Then, when the business turns out to be a disaster, they drag it to bankruptcy court, still finding ways to make money, after being net-subsidized by everyone who pays taxes.... Bill fleckenstein 10/05/09'..... have a nice day.
1053 area on S&P
is what i am watching/waiting for before i load up on short etfs. I am not 100% decided. It will be up to price action at recent support/now resistance levels, volume etc. EDIT: Also, it may never make it back to 1053 and I am aware of that.
most enticing to me is QID, as stocks in the QQQ have higher relative PE. If the markets correct downward, that will also imply higher usd, adding to the pain for intl revenue for the co's in the QQQ. This is all theory but trying to build my plan before the ball is snapped and the defense bum rushes my QB.
"Better than expected" wont last forever.
On the flip side, if we definitively break above 1053 and stay there I will have to start selling short term put options on co's that might benefit from xmas like apple or amazon where i wouldnt mind being forced to buy before new yrs at lower cost basis.
thinking out loud.
But eventually, whether in Q4 or Q1 this market should correct.
EDIT 2: i think the biggest risk for shorts is co's blowing away kindergarten guidance, and reaction being bullish. the biggest risk for long positions is the USD being defended.
Not meant for advice. prob more dis-advice
Re: Credit Suisse strategy as at Oct 5
westcoaster,
Excellent question because I ought to be saying that it's important to look at what VIPs on Wall Street are saying. I want people to get a full picture before making such important decisions.
I think that UBS, CS, and CS have excellent research products -- much more original and complete than most of the broker-dealers. They tend to hire the best people because there is a line-up to get a foot in the door there. I actually put more credibility on that factor than I do re claims of disinformation regarding these companies. Logical thinking refutes that argument because if they continued to screw over the reader of their research, they wouldn't have many clients. In Canada, I'm even more impressed actually by the quality of analysts, but I do think there is more 'group think' let's call it in those Cdn firms, so you need to narrow down the analysts you want to follow. In the big US/global firms that I mentioned, I think most analytical work is good. Having said all that, I don't spend as much time on it as you might think because much of it is oriented out a year or more and presently my time horizon is intra-day to maybe 1 month.
I'm starting to collect research from broad sources and to try to spot anomalies. We saw a few in Goldcorp for instance. Up front, that study will help us spot certain insights, and in time will help us zero in on the best analysts. Institutional Analyst ratings on Wall street are pretty much a crock from what I've seen.
Re: Michael Moore
http://www.voteronpaul.com/newsDetail.php?Michael-...
This is an opinion about what he does correctly and incorrectly...very interesting take on the subtleties.
CEF (gold) competition - new ETF
CEF is a favored holding on this site as an investment in Gold/Silver bullion because it reportedly actually holds the precious metals in its vault in Canada.
Kaimu has frequently complimented Perth Mint for its actual Gold holdings which it reportedly keeps in Australian vaults, but investments in Perth certificates are not widely available in the US.
Now, there is another possible place to put investment $Dollars into reportedly actual Gold and Silver bullion holdings, and if it has already been mentioned here, I apologize for bringing it back up, but perhaps the attached charts will add something to the commentary.
First, here is a link to some changes that are occurring in commodities etf’s including changes to DBC and DBA [edit: and to UNG] as well as some further information on SGOL and SIVR , the new Gold and Silver etf’s for stored bullion metals in Switzerland.
Note: Volume on the attached charts is quickly becoming respectable.
From: “ETF Trends -
How Times Are Changing for Commodity ETFs”
http://www.etftrends.com/2009/10/how-times-changin...
Charts attached below. Anyone else have any further info on these new etf’s?
Inkstop prob out of business. Workers owed money
http://bit.ly/2OFUSA
Employees owed back pay. No medical coverage. Cobra continuation is not avail as there was no sponsored group plan prior to this event.
New York Income Tax Revenue Falls 36% in Year
http://bit.ly/ibmJY
Crap. Here come even higher tolls, taxes, train fare hikes, speeding tickets, parking tickets etc. And all this of course will be on less service.
Hey Mr Paterson, just make up the deficit with Goldman Slacks. they can plug your hole in 1 trading session with half a super computer.
I guess I can move to California by just staying in New York.
EDIT: Maybe just maybe, if the govt offers $15,000 home buyer credit, i will liquidate my properties and move back to my birth place, Seoul Korea. But the problem there is S Korea is known and USA's little brother. At least S Korea has exports.
reloaded oil short
Reloaded my oil short before market close. With the dollar down, oil's move today came late and wasn't particularly enthusiastic, especially when compared to GLD and SLV. The 50 day MA seems to be resistance, and its weekly MACD has already rolled over to the downside. I might be a day early on this one, but I think the odds are in my favor here.
MGM Mirage Cuts Price on Multi-Billion Condo Project by 30%
http://bit.ly/q8xb
Note to MGM. Expect another haircut when China funds knock on your door in a few months when those condos are still empty.
Re: CEF (gold) competition - new ETF
spot -
"Kaimu has frequently complimented Perth Mint for its actual Gold holdings which it reportedly keeps in Australian vaults, but investments in Perth certificates are not widely available in the US."
I had no trouble setting up a direct account in 2009. My bars sit in a stable Western Australian gov't vault with a military base nearby.
Edit: FDR outlawed exportation of gold as discussed by Mish this evening. Interesting.
Re: Nat Gas
Max pain for Oct options is at $13 ...
Bloomberg Responds To Fed Appeal, Blasts Systemic crash threats
http://bit.ly/Ojnhg
GOOG and GS pulled back only to 21 DMA
where as many others went to meet the 50DMA. If the rally resume this may help these two leaders.
BEE
anyone see the news AH? looks pretty solid. they sold off their Mexico property, which was a big drag on operations...
Re: Steamroller Blues/ Nine minutes left
To close shorts before Asia opens.
JT's back-up band hasn't even kicked in yet. When he gets to the stanza that includes the napalm bomb, it'll be too late.
Re: CEF (gold) competition - new ETF
Dr. S. - Thanks. After reading your comment, I went back to check my info on the Perth Mint and for those who want further details on how to participate in Perth Mint offerings, here is the link:
http://www.perthmint.com.au/default.aspx
There is a list of approved US distributors for the Certificates and also the details for direct deposits.
With regard to SIVR and SGOL, I wonder if some of the current jump in spot price for Silver and Gold might be due in some part to buying of bullion reserves for SIVR and SGOL in order to meet new investments in those ETF's?
Re: Steamroller Blues/ 2004 version with Joe Walsh walking on
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf3vEKRV-zA&feature...
I recall seeing Joe Walsh in Pittsburgh either the fall of 1970 or the winter of 1971. Concert started with John Mayall and ended with The James Gang. Or maybe it was two different concerts. Can't quite remember. You know how it was.
Dollar trouble brewing? Plans for oil trade off usd? Article...
http://bit.ly/KCewj
Excerpt:
In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.
Re: Steamroller Blues/ 2004 version with Joe Walsh walking on
I kind of opened for The James Gang back in the 70's.
Actually, my band did play but then a problem arose. The promoter had to pay The James Gang half in advance, the other half in cash before they went on stage the night of the concert.
The promoter tried to pass off a check on The James Gang and they refused to go on. A riot ensued.
The audience became quite unruly, throwing full cans of beer at the stage. I gathered them up and drank free for days.
Regards,
BH
Re: Dollar trouble brewing? Plans for oil trade off usd? ...
This is a little off the original thread. Trouble for the dollar = weaker dollar = economy is trashed but equities soar.
The last part is the one I have trouble with - how can equity prices rise while the economy and the currency suffer?
Re: Dollar trouble brewing? Plans for oil trade off usd? ...
joe,
Christopher Whalen says that the real economy is dying so everyone is diving into stocks and bonds because they're liquid at the moment.
Here's a short video:
http://tinyurl.com/y9a2j9u
*** sorry, link won't work. Try going to Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker section if you want to view the video. Or try to open the link in a new window.***
Regards,
BH
Re: Steamroller Blues/ 2004 version with Joe Walsh walking on
Is there another financial blog that can illustrate the proper response to stock promoters as well as this one-
Re: Dollar trouble brewing? Plans for oil trade off usd? ...
I thought about this cause effect too. Maybe the best analogy is ice cream is to human as weak dollar is to equities?
1 scoop is good, sundae is yummy but have two pints all by yourself and both your body and mind go to blubber.
If USD Dollar falls large here, Foriegners will Dump US Assets
This will be bad for US equities prices = market reversal to one direction only which is DOWN.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/th...
Re: Dollar trouble brewing? Plans for oil trade off usd? ...
"The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018," according to the article.
That's a very long time for a transition to go into effect.
It gives the US enough time develop counter policies that the rest of the world will not like.
In 9 years the US might reduce its debt obligations by allowing debt default in many insolvent companies.
The US may choose to recover production capacity and jobs by fully taxing (maybe even surtaxing) companies for outsourced activities.
The US may even choose to conserve its resources by allowing the rest of the nations of the world to provide for their own self defense.
In 9 years the US could have a significantly different and healthier economy from the one the rest of the world has come to love, hate, and exploit.
Re: Steamroller Blues/ 2004 version with Joe Walsh walking on
Damn, Bull...!! Was Joe as wild back then? .. the man can play some licks.. I know you have to miss those days..I sure do..
Chart pattern trader vid up
http://bit.ly/j03Ko
Re: Steamroller Blues/ 2004 version with Joe Walsh walking on
Got to agree with Baz. Damn Bull!!..That is too sweet!
Re: CEF (gold) competition - new ETF
spot -
Thank Kaimu, not me.
For me, gold ETFs cannot protect against the potential collapse of the financial system(s). It's a hassle to set up with the Perth Mint but I sleep better. It's about iron clad protection in a core holding. Remember, you can't print gold. If we have a financial collapse, good luck collecting those ETF gold certificates even if the physical is in some bank vault somewhere. I can show up at the Perth with a passport and I'm good.
I'll possibly trade CEF but it just doesn't have that safety factor. CEF is better than others with bullion bar lists, I've been told. That's a big plus. Good for swing trades.
gold breakout tomorrow?
Unless some dollar strength happens tomorrow, gold may well break above 1020. Its right there now, in asia trading. If it does, there are a lot of shorts that are going to cover. Imagine the force behind that kind of short-covering rally for a moment. $100 in a day, like Bill has said in the past.
Think the Fed is ready for gold to seriously break above 1020? I think they'd rather throw the US equity market under the bus.
See that's the problem - too many balls in the air at once. One of them is bound to drop at some point.
Any predictions how this goes? Shorting gold right now would sure be the gutsy move. But you won't catch ME doing that!
EDIT: one additional point. On the weekly chart, $GOLD sure looks like an ascending triangle, on the brink of a breakout.
California Dreamin
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/04/califo...
P.S. Cool Bull, Funk #49
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_qHU_6Ofc0&feature...
Thanks for comments on UNG/$USD/max pain
Didn't realise that the domestic natgas market isn't affected by the $USD (even if it comes from Canada?).
Alberio, appreciate your thoughts that Natgas might not go lower. If spot is approx. $3 and futures closer to $5, then a collapse of both (a CIT bankruptcy creating a big vortex in the market along with perfect weather/reduced NG consumption) could, if we are lucky, get spot to $1 and UNG to $3-4? Just guessing. hmmm have to evaluate whether the risk/reward is worth shorting UNG.
Asking myself when the Fed is gonna stomp on the goldbugs and the dollar plungers? Daily gold looks good for a 20-30 point move (my guess) given the MACDh reversal happening now. see attachment. SLW has similar potential with MACDh now bottoming out and turning positive.
Davef, Jesse's had one of two possible chart formations for $GOLD with EVENTUAL price targets of $1300. I've been mindful of Bill's warning that the Fed will stomp on the goldbugs, but will it happen and when (Bill said 1-2 days of $USD weakness yesterday). Here's another TA of $GOLD suggesting it goes up based on a cyclical movement. He correctly predicted it's rise, but for how long/how high? There's some tension between analyst predictions for $GOLD AND $USD. I don't know how to resolve this.
Guess I go with the charts and wait for the Fed to dictate dollar movement.
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/goldcycle921/?c...
edit: Twiggs has this to say this morning:
"The US Dollar Index is testing short-term resistance at 77.50. Breakout above resistance and the declining trendline would warn that the down-trend is weakening. Reversal below 76 is, however, more likely and would signal another down-swing with a target of 74.50*. The weakening dollar exerts upward pressure on gold, crude oil and general commodity prices."
Ok I go with $GOLD. Looking forward to Bill's thoughts.
SPY 60 min chart - continuation of the channel.
Friday's annotations are marked in blue. Updated channel annotation marked in green. Note the low of the 25th now acting as resistance.
This comes from the CPT: http://thechartpatterntrader.blogspot.com/
Re: Dollar trouble brewing? Plus AUD
ALOHA !!
Best performing stock market in 2007? Zimbabwe Industrials, but look what you get when you cash out your profits!
From my studies of the countries where currencies falter along with the economies, such as Weimar Republic, Argentina, Asia, etc ... what people were seeking in stocks were alternatives to holding their own currencies. The most sought after stocks were the ones with the best and the most PP&Es ... Property, Plant and Equipment. However not only was PP&E a major factor but also these companies had to be international with product revenues coming from outside the faltered currency. Such companies that fit that bill in America are XOM and CVX and MCD and KO and PZE. In effect the stock certificates of these companies were the complete opposite of holding worthless devalued currency backed by nothing but empty government promises. These company stock certificates were backed by "real wealth" tangible assets like factories and refineries that are irreplaceable and of paramount importance for those economies to survive. These are "real wealth" companies as opposed to companies like GS and JPM that just shuffle over-priced paper for over-paid management.
Hummmm??? I just noticed this ...
Australia raises interest rate to 3.25 percent
Australian central bank lifts interest rate by quarter point, optimistic on economy
October 6, 2009
SYDNEY (AP) -- Australia's central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by a quarter point Tuesday, the first major economy to increase the cost of borrowing amid signs its recovery from the global slump is gaining momentum.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 3.25 percent from a 49-year low of 3 percent. Between September 2008 and April this year, the rate was slashed a total of four and a quarter percentage points as the financial crisis morphed into a global recession.(more)
I think some entity knew this was going to happen before it was announced because the AUD has been very strong prior to this. Gosh, who would've known?
What is interesting is that the POG in AUD has barely even gone down on that news, down 0.35%, at $1155AUD. What would be different if the US FED made a similar announcement? HA!!