Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2009

Interestingly, on NBR last night, the outside analyst said something like"Goldman Sachs too connected to fail" as he recommended it as a stock to buy. No asterisks, no jokes, no comments, just that flat statement. I do not believe this would have happened even 6 months ago. I was surprised to hear it.

I agree, Bill, we the people may be slowly coming out of our slumber on this one issue.

Thanks to Bill and Best Regards to all.

A little video to stir up the memories this August 1st.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeoh7vU6XsE&feature...

What a fascinating country your motherland is. Hope to visit someday.

Anyone who has ever worked on a government project knows it's the specs which make things cost so much.

Government committees are essentially made up of lawyers. These guys are unfamiliar with nearly anything other than the law. Can you picture a lawyer fixing his own toilet? Hence the $900 toilet seat.

Back in the 1960s I worked on a USAF Training Manual for the use of blacktop laying equipment. An area equipment manufacturer hired the manual published — to Federal Specifications.

All type at that time was set professionally on Linotype or handset in lead measured in points and picas. All the gov. specs were in thousandths of an inch. Since the sizes specified did not match any standard type faces (now erroneously called fonts) the pages had to be set over-sized and photographically reduced. (Note: Techies didn't bother to familiarize themselves with existing production terms — lawyers are not alone in their arrogance ;-)

The real expense came with the "minor changes" — each had to be pasted into the press-ready pages after an initial proof had been read by government bureaucrats who refused our suggestions to use a standard type size.

So it is, I am sure, with Cash for Clunkers and will be for health care.

$45,000? I think that is the price I heard of for the GM hybrid. Hmmmm.

Saw an interesting show on healthcare last night on Bill Moyer.

Do you know the lobbyists have gotten their way so there will be no less expensive drugs from Canada? Do you know there are places in rural America where people rely on health fairs and long ass lines to have basic needs met by volunteers?
You thought Canada has lines? Think again, we have longer lines and less care.

Here's the take from a former Health Insurance executive. You DON'T know what you THINK you know.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/07312009/watch.html
http://www.ramusa.org/learn/media.html
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/blog/2009/07/ass...

Wanna know who's buying your politicians? This is obscene. You think GS is bad? Think again! They have a club! Clue: Note the percentages to BOTH parties. Kaimu on target again....if you like this then you need to wear your pants backwards....and get a very good proctologist.
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2009/07/health-che...
Blue font indicates that this organization is among the top 20 groups to spend money on lobbying since 1989
Red font indicates that this organization is an all-time top contributor since 1989, designated as one of CRP's "Heavy Hitters"

I am surprised by WalMart's stance...interesting.

NYT reports of the $100M bonus due one Mr. Hall, who runs Citi's Philbro trading subsidiary. Philbro generated $2B in profits for Citi over 5 years.
Most of it apparently was from running oil up to $147 and gasoline to $4.

But, since it's reward for long-term performance, I don't see how Barney Frank can object ... LOL

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/02/business/02bonus...

"The total amount of support handed to Britain's financial sector by the taxpayer and the Bank of England now exceeds £1.2 trillion and is bigger than for any other major economy"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...

Thank you Bev. With its immense natural beauty and diversity, incredibly deep history and cultural traditions, country could have been one of the leading world's treasures. Too bad it is where it is.

No worries Seamus, I thank you for the information!

Yes, we were 105F here two days ago. Some places I saw were 107-108F!
Much cooler today, only 90's.....

The same jump in Brunswick stock occurred last quarter with terrible results, I don't get how/why this happens and this is probably why I'm not able to capture the good moves. Wish I understood, probably never will until someone takes the time to explain and even then I'm not sure I'd be able to take advantage...

FIG - Anybody looking at this one? I think it could quickly breach $5+...

FD: 100% cash, waiting for the big tumble (probably won't happen) and looking at real estate. I would stay in gold but my thin knowledge tells me to stay away in case the tumble materializes, and will buy back in at a 7 handle if that should occur. Found a nice empty lot just 2 blocks from the beach, might build a "cottage" gonna go look...

I like sharing my ideas, don't hold back anything for selfish reasons.

ALOHA !!

Les - Perhaps the $386MIL USD the US Treasury handed over to the IMF on Thursday, 7/30, went straight to the UK ... SO not only is the IMF selling off everybody's gold but they still US taxpayer bailouts to keep their doors open. The IMF reminds me of AIG, except for central banks! The spend everybody else's assets!

Somebody asked about gold leasing the other day and I'm not sure if there was an answer so I'll take a stab at it:

Gold Carry Trade

Central bank(lessor) leases out (publicly owned?) gold to lessee, lessee then sells gold on market and invests proceeds (CB Bonds?) that deliver a higher rate (hopefully) than his lease rate. If the POG increases (lessor rate), the lessee could potentially find himself in an underwater position.

Would GS ever allow such to occur to them and if they are holding leases, have they taken Kennedy precautions?(re:previous post)

This is the pure sense of being short gold. I've forgotten the details of whether the rates are adjustable, probably kaimu can chime in on the detail.

ALOHA !!

I found a YouTube link to the same documentary I watched entitled ENRON-THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM.

I think we as Americans have to work on our memories ... It seems we forget all too quickly and then before we know it we have yet another ENRON on our hands. In actuality the LEHMANS BK makes ENRON look like a tiny pimple! Who was it that went to jail for the LEHMANS fraud?

LINK: http://tinyurl.com/m5rqt8

Watch this as it is a 14 part series(not counting 2 titles) and just take in the arrogance and the audacity of fraud.

IT IS WHAT IT IS ...

I think another element of the healthcare debate that doesn't get enough attention is the role of productivity and Baumol's costs disease. Here's an old article that provides illumination:
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2003/07/07/030707...

Bev, I think your logic and intuition is valid, although relying on logic in this market isn't always profitable. Going into a Canadian holiday long weekend (markets re-open here Tuesday) I exited all my longs Friday and took a small short position. HB&B has hunted bears to extinction so maybe they'll choose instead to make hay from all those green shoots they've been growing in their rich brand of manure.

take care..

It is an 18 ft. Wildwood... got everything I need... plan on starting construction of my home in NC mountains in late September.... very peaceful and safe ( top of the mountain )... may not post as much, but will always read every night..trade every day and improve my spelling ! ...

baz22 - You'll enjoy that camper trailer, don't forget to drain the water heater tank + all other water tanks(s) and blow out the water lines with compressed air come winter. I'd throw a good tarp over the roof as well, it'll help keep water from penetrating the woodwork.

After reading that Rolling Stone article on Goldman, I´m left wondering how I could take advantage of the future bubble in carbon credits ;-)

Any ETFs for this?

Bah...

There is so much hype here. I have to conclude ulterior motive in the hype. Perhaps designed and championed for distraction... or maybe for the subtle interpolation of federal influcence/enforcement in state and local matters. Federal forces deployed for the implementation of mandatory innoculations and quarintine in the event of pandemic....BAH!

Worst case would be for the surreptitious deployment and dissemination of weaponized agents under the auspicies of preventative inocculation. ANd then, "Oops, the vaccine was contaminated... we didnt know... who would have imagined... but innoculations are mandatory... bend over and take your medicine...."

Either way, the politics of development and dissemination represent HUGE profits to certain interests. DONT BUY THE HYPE! The powers that be want you to be afraid... VERY AFRAID... these are the same powers that present experts that continue to proclaim triumphant termination of the recession; Things are rosy.... nothing to see here... move along.... great time to buy... recession over... housing bottomed... yadda, yadda , yadda... ad nauseum...oh, and be sure to get your flu shot!

The powers behind the powers that be want "useless eaters" dead.. Target population 1 in 10 of current numbers...and they are not beyond helping mother nature along in that regard.

When will people realize the rot is complete and thorough? This flu threat, if not the product of a manufactured virus, is definitely the product of a manufactured public relations campaign.

If you are concerned:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--NqqB2nhBE

Goodness gracious... Turn off the TV.

Allright, I am going to go away again as I suspect my comments are generally less than appreciated. Peace.

CP,

"...waiting for the big tumble"

I think it will happen, just a matter of time. This balloon is floating on hot air.

Bill referred to the Eric Sprott article AT A GLANCE a couple days ago.
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/July_2...

I think he is right on. Fear is rising and will eventually override the hypesters.

I've been adding to my Treasury fund WHOSX and selling off my few equity long gains (GAS,ETP) and will cut other mutual funds by half VWINX(+4.5%) and VWINX (+9.5%) this week.

Stopped out of short ETF a couple weeks ago (TBT) but holding TLT and watching closely.

I see Treasuries also as a temp upside. Gold is for the long haul on pullbacks.

Recently acquired ability to short my brokerage account and looking at SRS for about next spring. Not about to become a landlord at my age, but there is sure a lot of nice property all around me. Prices have stalled, but will, I think, continue to fall here. No Jobs! 14.5% admitted unemployment and rising!

My opinion, but based on reason as in the Sprott view.

Mtn- "Allright, I am going to go away again as I suspect my comments are generally less than appreciated."

Not from this corner. Please keep us posted.

Thank you.

Keeping it short

Insightful NT analyst’s viewpoint on GDP, global economy, charts.

Awaiting the ISM (Monday 8/4)

Looking at China stimulus, Shenzen on a tear (one-sided bet that smacks of speculation)

http://tinyurl.com/l85rf9

MtnGntx,

You don't realize how many fans you have.:)Thanks for the youtube link. I watched a few of the others there about Vit. D and found The Vit. D Cure book by Dr. Dowd looked interesting as well. I am curious if you would share your thoughts on a multivitamin, type and source. There seems to be alot of controversy and misinformation about what is a good multivitamin and whether it is useful, meaning the body can use it. One thing I see alot is it has to be chelated. Also, do you have a preference for a Vit. D source. I have always felt I want to get my nutrition from food and try my best to do that, but also recognize the difficulty in that given our modern food sources. I do use the "Garden of Life" products and take their "perfect food" (a supergreen formula) and periodically take the primal defense probiotic to fill me up with the "good bugs". Any thoughts you can share are appreciated. Thanks.

David- Rented this one on a hunch (I often pick films the same way I bet on market direction). A nice independent film about life, accidents, bad choices, bad consequences, responsibility. Filmed in beautiful Virginia. Troy Garity (son of Tom Hayden and Jane Fonda) stars. Sissy Spacek and Keith Carradine in leading/supporting roles. I watched it before reading the bad reviews, which explains why I usually skip reviews and go with instinct.

Vitamin D = Unadulterated cod liver oil; Granny knew best.

Craig,
I dunno what the answer is. Most doctors and nurses are well intentioned and hard working in a system that they themselves will tell you is broken.

MtnGntx - "I suspect my comments are generally less than appreciated. Peace."

Well not by me, your points happen to align closely with my observations. I thank you for posting your thoughts.

In my universe of stocks there are 24 stocks which showed gains above +500% YTD, lead by Diedrich Coffee (DDRX.NAS) with monster gains of 6502.78%.

Seven of these are near their ATHs: DDRX.NAS HGSI.NAS MKR.VSE MTX.VSE OMN.NYS SMRT.NAS STEC.NAS

The complete list is available at http://tinyurl.com/l8ln75

Otto, the british peru-based mining analyst, has been reporting on swine flu's course in S. America - where it is winter. Chile and Argentina, the southern-most countries (those coldest in winter) have by far the largest number of cases. Well-managed Chile has the most cases by far, but has suffered many fewer deaths than poorly-managed Argentina.

As of 7.25, Latin America was up to 390 swine flu deaths, of which 197 were in Argentina and 79 in Chile:

http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/2009/07/south...

Per CDC, the US has now suffered 353 deaths. Argentina, with 1/10th the US population has suffered 197 deaths. This seems to indicate that the virus is spreading faster and strengthening.

The key questions seem to be if its virulence will continue to increase, and whether the vaccination now being prepared for the US will be effective against H1N1 in the form it re-enters the US population during flu season.

Curiously, US media were full of recommendations to wash your hands frequently, but did not emphasize the equally important measure of training yourself not to touch your face. The virus enters primarily through touching your eyes, nose and mouth.

I opened this can of worms, so I feel obligated.

On epidemiology: any stats reported will only represent what is seen. Most instances of this flu are not reported... Why? Because they are not lethal, and, to be honest, quite normally accepted as a flu virus like any other to be endured and forgotten. From the epidemiologists standpoint, these mild cases are never "seen." Deaths, on the other hand, are reported because, well, because there is a body involved... so deaths tend to be more highly reported, often hugely distorting the ratio of deaths to illness. That being said, many of these reported deaths are not confirmed in the first place. That is to say that lab work to conclusively assign blame to a particular strain of flu is never undertaken... even in the case of swine flu. It is too costly, too time consuming, and generally uninformative after a point. If you were following the thing in Mexico, you will remember the high numbers initially cited. These numbers were assumed to be swine flu, but when examined more closely, in many cases this was retroactively discounted. Concerning Mexico, ultimately, we may never know what the truth was, as once again, lab work was never done to conclusively determine the cause of death in each proclaimed case.

Models are developed to predict colosal numbers based on very, very small sample populations. Even the best models are susceptible to manipulation, bias, bad data, politics, rapidly changing variables, and general human error. Even the numbers you cite above will be predominately based upon assumptions and models but not on definitive lab workthe. I might add that they differ subtantially from what The world health organization reports: 94,500 cases with some 430 deaths. Who is right? Goodness knows.

So why track anything at all if you are only going to do it half- a$$ed? Good question. Quote that follows is from this article:

http://tinyurl.com/naprfl

And WHO stopped even tracking H1N1

Another indication that the world is being taken for colossal suckers in the entire WHO Swine Flu scare scenario, the WHO itself, the world body entrusted to monitor outbreaks of so-called pandemics or even epidemics worldwide, has just decided to stop tracking Swine Flu or H1N1 Influenza A as they prefer to name it now, so as not to offend Smithfield Foods and other industrialized pig CAFO producers.

The World Health Organization in a “briefing note” posted on their Web site posted the baffling notice that they would no longer track outbreaks of H1N1. The last WHO update, issued July 6, showed 94,512 confirmed cases in 122 countries, with 429 deaths. The WHO apparently claims that the numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases were actually meaningless.

The briefing note said countries would still be asked to report their first few confirmed cases. It also said countries should watch for clusters of fatalities, which could indicate the virus had mutated to a more lethal form. Other “signals to be vigilant for,” it said, were spikes in school absenteeism and surges in hospital visits. The Atlanta CDC has also agreed to the WHO count drop. Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, admits that the existing tests to confirm H1N1 Influenza A are not even certain, but rather hit-or-miss. “Bad measures can be worse than no measures at all,” he stated. So the WHO has decided to drop tests that anyway did not give a scientific picture of who had H1N1 or not, and as well they have decided to drop counting any test results or cases of H1n1 around the world with the comment that “we can assume almost all cases are H1N1 Swine Flu. This is science on which basis we are told to vaccinate our young? Whoah there…Not with our children.

I just want to close by saying that I dont know what will happen with all of this, and I genuinely empathize with those in our community who become ill and are dying from all the things that ail mankind. I certainly dont mean to belittle the swine flu, or diminish the suffering of those sickened by it. Nor am I proclaiming that innoculations are some draconian effort to kill us off. Innoculations are overestimated, overused, and in themselves, frought with potential health hazards. Which is why rushing in to implement untested and possibly population-wide mandatory innoculations after abosolving manufacturers of said innoculant of all liability (especially given the track record of the manufacturer as I have written about on this blog before)for a threat which is unproven is, in a word, ridiculous. And more than a little reckless, if not dangerously negligent.

Currently, this flu is not the world stopping event predicted. Sure, that might change. It is just as dangerous as your great-great grand dads' flus and just as potentially lethal as any other flu virus that has crossed the human path.

I hope this helps. My intentions are well meant.

Les-

The games we play have different platforms today, but the dynamics that drive the games have changed about as much as the people who play them. Last time anyone checked, the observations of perceptive writers in ancient China and Greece are all relevant today.

If Lao Tzu or the Apostle Paul ran hedge funds right now, they'd have CNBC reporters parked outside M-F. In fact, we probably have a few modern day Lao Tzus and Apostle Pauls running successful hedge funds.

Excerpt from Karl Denninger's Sunday post http://tinyurl.com/l63n6z

~~~~~~~~~~~~
I believe the FDIC is broke and knows it; that under the law they should have seized these three banks (and many dozens more, including some really big ones) some time ago, but doing so will force them to tap the Treasury "emergency" credit line. They're well-aware that this could instill quite a bit of panic in the public (never mind Congress!); as such they, along with OTS and OCC are conspiring to (once again) hide the truth and pray for an economic recovery before they are forced to act as the law demanded months or even years ago!

This is nothing more than an attempt to keep this graph from looking dramatically worse than it already does and keep the "green shoot" lie alive to pump the stock market so that Americans "feel better." Big banking and other executives are taking advantage of this lie by selling shares into an overheated market (which they have been doing, by the way: Insider sales are at levels last seen just before the top in October of 2007!)

Hint to Sheila Bair, Tim Geithner, Dugan and Ben Bernanke: It won't work and you're going to precipitate a credit and stock market meltdown worse than last fall's. You may have already passed the point where you are unable to avoid that sort of damage, but if you don't act now the outcome is virtually assured.

Les
I think I be better start keeping an eye on GS. Up until now I haven't.

BTW do you trade off your 5/10/20 EMA cross overs?

[Keep up the posts Les I always enjoy reading them]

Do you think it will trade over 9.61 convincingly?

ps:
Here is the 1970 chart that also met res at 9.61ish in 1975 fwiw and after faling through an hs top

tbar - "Do you think it will trade over 9.61 convincingly?"

A quick glance at your charts dashes my expectations, but you didn't offer a conclusion to your question so I'm left with yet another puzzle...

Here is another problem that should have investors concerned. It seems that the silver ETF=SLV has some major audit problems. More corruption and more smoke and mirrors.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Silve...

Bev asked:> "BTW do you trade off your 5/10/20 EMA cross overs?"

Not so much as I like to see the stocks behaviour in relation to these EMA's on top of the 50 and the 200.

For example:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IFN&p=D&yr=0&mn=5...

Friday's candlestick is sitting on the 5 and 10 day MA. Wondering if that gives it a firm base from which to move higher tomorrow.

"[Keep up the posts Les I always enjoy reading them]".

Ditto. You're pegged level with JL for my chart education.

Less than an hour after my post this morning about the disinformation and media hype surrounding Swine Flue comes, courtesy of Canadian Press, my Sunday morning read headlines " Business Booms for Body Bag Company" Here is some of the garbage content:

"Trevor Owens Ltd. says orders are pouring in from as far away as some Persian Gulf states for its pandemic body bags. The company says several thousand of its thick plastic body bags were recently shipped to Alberta. Trevor Owen president Pierre Barcik says some seniors' residences are "starting to buy 5,10,or 15 at a time", adding provincial and state governments are starting to stockpile the bags."

"The bags are outfitted with six carrying handles, allowing for inexperienced personnel hastily moving bodies at a time of crisis".

Have you placed your order yet?

Well Rumsfeld must know something if he's front-running death and destruction!

Let's say in the basement of the Fed building there exists a department tasked with moderating the mood of the American public with respect to the economy. How would they attempt to distract (attention from the crisis), then subdue (anger at perceived causes), and ultimately cajole the public into supporting the Fed's policies?

So far they've run a good play.

(a) Run the SPX/NDQ/DJIA up to 1000/2000/10000. Do it immediately and in any way possible, so as to obfuscate any logical attempt to understand it.

(b) Maintain the status quo at 1000/2000/10000. This might be accomplished by juggling Fed actions/policies to cause senseless rotation among sectors.

(c) Eventually, inflation (along with 'real' recovery) will allow the indexes to remain at those levels with less intervention.

I think keeping indexes floating around the above numbers would muzzle a great deal of opposition.

I suppose that's why Bill likes to remind us that stocks are sold, not bought. What worries me right now is the possibility that short positions are being 'sold.'

Mark- Smart move. This is high-risk territory, either way.

Consider the non-fill of the TZA limit a blessing. I know better than most the lure of trying to time reversals. But this current rally exceeds anything I've seen (at least for major indexes). My instincts for calling turns is pretty much useless. If anything, my instincts tell me to stay out of the way.

Waiting for a reversal the past week reminded me of trying to pick the fastest check-out lane at Costco, or idling in the parking lot waiting for a spot. Once in awhile, I'll make the wrong choice- a customer ahead of me becomes a problem, or I see cars pull out of adjacent rows while I'm stuck 'protecting' my row. From experience, the best thing to do is to give up and move. Most of the time, if I insist on stubbornly sticking with my original decision, I just lose out to later arrivals.

The Hang Seng was up close to 1% a few minutes ago.

2nd said:> Let's say in the basement of the Fed building there exists a department tasked with moderating the mood of the American public with respect to the economy.

Woha! A "Ministry of Truth" you say? Now we're talking the American dystopia.

But consider this. Milton Freedman noted in the annexe of his book "Free To Choose" that the American Socialist Party platform of 1928 was unemployment compensation, social security and rural electrification, amongst others. What is the role played by the state, in meeting the desires of the populace, in this not too "laissez fair" nation of yours? Too what extent does it have the right to "massage" the needs and thoughts of the people?

Machiavelli would say the state has every right.

Delete me

http://www.efinancialnews.com/rss/content/1054841736/

Derivatives market coming out into the open?

* Passenger revenues 13 pct below target;cargo 22.5 pct below

* Cathay sees no indications of sustained recovery

* Analysts expect Cathay to see first profit in a year

* Expected to book once-off gain gain on oil hedge

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMateria...

If an airline in Asia can't see a recovery, what hope for airlines in the US and Europe? Profit due to hedging is not revenue growth.

"Thursday when we briefly broke above 990 on the S&P 500 index, the CBOE put call ratio (equity only) hit 0.50 - that magically half point marker is significant because it shows the average option trader’s raucous disregard for risk as they reach for the long side. Historically, it takes the market a few days to digest this before reacting lower. However, the last time the put call ratio plumbed these depths was in mid-April, earlier this year. And it was totally ignored by the market on its merry way higher."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/153192-sentiment-o...

The author notes the bullish sentiment. I wonder if the market will ignore option traders' complacency in August as it ignored it in April?

ALOHA !!

Les posted - "Why is he paid $100,000 to say what we can already guess?"

WOW ... $100k? Are you sure? That seems very little pay unless you are talking per day!

I have to agree. The USA and the World really disappoint me for what passes as Economics and Accounting these days. When I see companies reporting GAAP and NON-GAAP I have to wonder ... is that like having two sets of books? If I can translate properly here:

Definitions:
GAAP-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
NON-GAAP-Generally Unaccepted Accounting Principles

Then there is the FASB where losses are now profits. I have to say, as I have said before, if Economics and Accounting in the USA were a poker game then all red cards would be wild! Its that absurd ...

Then these stupid analyst expectations ... Expectations that are forever being lowered so the DOW can rally. Is there some way to "rate" rallies when compared to past market rallies. As far as I can tell the current DOW rally started with a CITI interoffice employee memo and fake FASB rules.

If I were an accountant working for these Wall Street firms I would be ashamed of how watered down and corrupt my profession has become. All you have to do is look at what Arthur Anderson did with ENRON and with so many ENRONS in America now its no wonder the accounting business has gone awry like it has. Integrity is out the window!

But then it all goes back to the underlying fundamentals of corruption which is tied to a corrupt monetary system. How can anything in America not be corrupt as long as our monetary system is such a farce.

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY!

"WASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - The Pentagon is seeking to speed deployment of an ultra-large "bunker-buster" bomb on the most advanced U.S. bomber as soon as July 2010, the Air Force said on Sunday, amid concerns over perceived nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran...

Carrying more than 5,300 pounds of explosives. it would deliver more than 10 times the explosive power of its predecessor, the 2,000-pound BLU-109, according to the Pentagon's Defense **Threat Reduction Agency** (why not call it "The Ministry of Love"?), which has funded and managed the seed program.

Chicago-based Boeing, the Pentagon's No. 2 supplier by sales, could be put on contract within 72 hours to build the first MOP production models if Congress signs off, Bourland said."

YAY! Everyone wins! Go Boeing's stock price! Go the "Threat Reduction Agency"! (that one gets a chuckle out of me). Go American taxpayer! Go North East Asian relations!

ALOHA !!

Les posted-"why not call it "The Ministry of Love"?"

Funny ...

Ah yes ... and wasn't that one of Obama's Presidential campaign promises, to build more bunker busters? He is outspending George Bush 2 to 1 on military armaments. That's the line item on the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT labeled "Defense Vendors". Just which one of our allies is he planning to occupy with this huge build-up? The UK?

yet sentiment trader is not particularly frothy short term

http://www.sentimentrader.com/

This stinks of BS.

now +87

Question - how is pre-market calculated? Thru futures contracts or something like that?

edit: dollar is collapsing. soon to be under 78. Take your pick I guess. S&P to rally or the dollar.

ALOHA !!

Latest presentation from Silver Lakes Resources(SLR:ASX)from the Diggers & Dealers Conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.

Presentation-Building A Mid-Tier Gold Company

LINK: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090803/pdf/31jxcrh2...

All good news!

- No debt
- No hedging
- Positive cash flow
- Expanding production
- Expanding resources
- Expanding profits
- Great management

So far management has done everything right starting the first day they went public(Nov 2007)!

Headed to 100k+ Au Oz per year in one of the best gold producing countries in the World ... WESTERN AUSTRALIA! For my money ... its a COUNTRY!

Zero to 100koz+ Au production in less than three years ... Phenomenal! To move past the 100k Au oz zone without a loan is a testament to management's expertise. What do you expect from the same mob that sold Olympic Dam to BHP?

Closed on the ASX Monday at $0.73AUD(approx $0.61USD) ... Where in America or Canada can you find this kind of value?

Yes, I do still own shares ...

ALOHA !!

Les-Yes, on YAHOO FINANCE ... the headline news is "Stock Futures In US Jump After Gains Overseas"! I hope they looked at the Nikkei before they wrote that!

The ASX finished up but came off its highs towards the end of the day, so that's not exactly a slam dunk!

Looks like a set-up ... Just like the FINSOB REPORT ... "selective charting"!

USDX trying to hold 78 while defending 960 POG! Time for another FX SWAP Bennie! Should those kind of FX tactics be called "managing" or "intervening" or just plain "fraud"? Certainly the POS is fronting this assault as it has been strong from the get go ... JP Morgan wake up! You can't hold the POG down while the POS soars ...

A pivotal day for the FX and PM!

I have to go to bed ...

http://theperplexedinvestor.blogspot.com/

Hi Jack, your pertinent comments reminded me of The Joker addressing Harvey Dent in the hospital bed.

*voice of the joker*

"You see, if I tell you that 36'000 old and infirm people will die from flu this winter no one panics, because it's all part of the plan.

But if I were to tell you that 10 healthy children will die of Swine flu then everyone loses their minds."

Mark- Sometimes we stop for a drink, get upset at missing the train, only to realize later we avoided a crash.

A friend sent me the text of Obama's recent speech to the NAACP.

It is a smoother, more ethnically friendly, version of what Bill Cosby said a couple of years ago and they vilified him. His advice was pretty clear... "Shape up and make your kids behave." (paraphrased)

Obama do be silver tongued when he talk about "wupping yo kid".

IMO, it was an insult to those present and about as worthwhile as any of his campaign talks — zilch!

atk.

for being bullish ever since april, which has been the right direction. Every one of these tv talking heads looking for a down-market has had his head wedged firmly up his......

This entire upmove (lately) has been predicated on dollar weakness, which has now falled below 78.

PAL a winner again.

And another thing...Anyone remember 30 years ago yesterday? The day Thurm died? I remember it like it just happened.

...?

Yes they are.

Today is a holiday in Ontario

Regards

...

...

2nd- Looks like it now, but playing for a repeat of Fridays tape. Oil @ 71.67...damn.

Mark- Well, I'm taking some time off from work, this week and again the third week of August. I was planning on some fast/furious trading, but I don't see the point right now. I can't be chasing longs, and you see what's happening on the short side.

Holding cash while the market rockets up? The past three weeks is the only time I can recall being content with that combination.

I think they keep it there as long as possible, in a trading range which lulls the public into complacency. Not too hot, not too cold. Not great, but it's still 4 digits, so the average investor sets aside his anger in favor of hope and denial.

2nd- Hope your taking a couple of day trips. Are the kids home?

play emerging in VIT.

look at spot silver in relation to gold. someone's got a beef against gold.

Doug Casey on Mowing Down Green Shoots http://bit.ly/2MSCY3 the size of this auction coming up, $235 billion, is really rather shocking...

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=...

The older kids are working, and the younger one has summer camp. So we're just going to eat out a lot, and hit the movies a couple of times.

Will have all the "quants", and other wankers who use computers to study market inter-relations and to trade them buying commodities.

Always trying to learn from those who know more and humility goes hand in hand with the realities of this game, but I think the next upleg in PM's will be the beginning of a new upleg, not a selling oppty.

Mac- You make a very good point. The average American investor is not going to look beyond the smoke and mirrors, with only the occasional complaint about prices of foreign goods and travel.

I feel the same way but have no proof. Marc Faber argues inflation and no deflation now. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is saying now that the new Black Swan is hyperinflation.
In this environment, shorting stocks is dangerous. But, I thought so in 2007 and I was wrong.

One of the reasons I like BNN is the occasional appearance of Bill Harris of Avenue Investments. A calm, analytical voice (the anti-cramer!).

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip199300

In this clip he covers Canadian energy stocks, but also mid-tier and small gold producers.

he maintains that the market can ignore for years the dozen or so producers at 250K oz/yr level, and even moreso the sub 100k oz/yr producers.

Still, he notes that CGR has found high grades at Madsen (Redlake near goldcorp) and that filling out this deposit through further drilling and study over the next 2 years could lead to a serious run-up.

He's very skeptical of juniors who have only a deposit - however many oz measured and indicated. They still have to finance production, since most seniors will usually want to see real-world results before acquiring.

I've often thought that juniors with both production (or near production)and large exploration upside represent the best potential for stock price increase.

But most small producers tend to come up with small exploration results (castle gold, troy resources, capital gold, etc.)

The only such candidate I've found so far with strong and growing production and HUGE exploration/acquisition upside is Rusoro - which is well down the road on both criteria, and which now has major Canadian institutional ownership, yet whose stock price continues to go NOWHERE.

Anybody out there have other candidates whose production is strong and growing, and who have big exploration/acquisition upside?

Looks like the PPT took the day off regarding the dollar. Maybe that part of it is subbed to a Canadian firm on Holiday.

The key term in this report is 'flu-related' deaths. Closer observation of the CDC's own research reveals only 1,000 flu-caused deaths and 35,000 deaths from secondary causes, mainly pneumonia or circulatory disease.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-relate...

For an MD laymen's perspective and admission by a vaccine manufacturer that she personally does not get flu shots(!)
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive...

IT 'S ALL HYPE LACED WITH MERCURY ANTIFREEZE AND ALUMIUM!

seems like a low risk entry here

Thanks, Bill.

Pasting excerpts. The guy has a way with words. I took the liberty of bolding a few comments.

"This is compounded by the fact everybody is looking to the governments to solve these problems. Government is the cause of these problems. And the people it employs are not the best and the brightest (how that ridiculous canard ever got traction astounds me) but the poorest and worst part of humanity.

"Boobus americanus is looking to the type of people employed by their DMV or the TSA – albeit sporting prestigious degrees and expensive suits – to solve a millennial economic crisis. Good luck, suckers.

"There are lots of reasons I say that the Greater Depression is going to be even worse than I think it’s going to be."

"What makes that even more troubling is that cars are no longer minor assets on most people’s balance sheets. Back in those days, if they didn’t buy them for cash, most people bought cars with a two- or maybe three-year financing. Now, everyone finances cars for five years or even leases them for that long. They’ve gone from being a minor asset to a major liability on families’ balance sheets.

"So, forget about the auto industry recovering. That’s not going to happen. No green shoots there. In addition to the fact the cars that will be made by a nationalized and bankrupt GM and Chrysler will be politically correct crap. Nobody but people like Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi will want to be caught dead in them.

"Forget about housing, forget about autos, forget about almost anything you hear about on the news. For years, the whole world has overconsumed and lived above its means. It was great fun while it lasted, but now the party’s over – and for a long time. You won’t see any green shoots.

"What you are going to see is lots more corporate bankruptcy and lots more unemployment.

"All those people giving $150 massages and $40 haircuts are going to find that people can no longer afford them. Professions like personal trainers are going down the toilet. There are going to be lots of unemployed carpenters, financial planners, mortgage brokers, department store clerks, and car salesmen.

"On the bright side, there will be legions of unemployed lawyers – unless they’re bankruptcy specialists.

"There are so many businesses – almost everything you look at, from restaurants to car washes – that are still catering to old patterns of production and consumption."

"I want to go for the low-hanging fruit. What the stock market does and what the economy does are really two different things. Stocks could actually skyrocket because of all the dollars the government is creating. People might want to buy stocks because they actually are equity; they represent real wealth. I suspect that in this depression, the stock market isn’t going to bottom until we’re looking at dividends in the ten percent range across the board, after being cut from present levels, which implies a much lower stock market.

"But do I want to make a bet that way?

"Not particularly. All that money creation could drive the stock market up in spite of much lower earnings and a bad economic situation.

"It seems to me that the sure bet is to be short bonds. Interest rates are going way up. Why? There will be tremendous demand for capital, of which there’s a limited supply. Interest rates are the price of capital. So they’re going up for that reason – and because of the trillions of paper dollars the government is creating, inflation is going to skyrocket. High inflation will itself guarantee high interest rates."

Spent some time there yesterday. Lots and lots of data. A few long term trends caught my eye.

1) US balance of payments improving dramatically

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPGST...

2) Yuan/US$ has completed a long-term top and is being systematically lowered. Did Paulson's trip have some affect?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DEXCHU...

3) Yen/US$ has been in a 40+ year downtrend although since 1990 its been rangebound (~80-140 which is quite a large range). ~100 yen/US$ was a key 10+ year support that cracked for the first time during this bear and the Jan '09 low was very close to the 40 year low of 1995, which was a capitulation move. I'm going the watch FXY closely over the next while. It's a VERY bullish "looking" chart which might just provide an interesting surprise as it nears 2-year the trendline.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DEXJPU...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXY&p=D&b=1&g=0&i...

4) Something called "US imports from Canada on a customs basis" have fallen off a cliff. Seems to me they have simply been cut in half.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IMPCA?...

5) The corresponding chart for China is rising albeit it's a seasonal fluctuation in a trend that's down about 14%.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IMPCH?...

6) Something called BOPO (U.S. Assets Abroad, Net: Outflow (-)) looks like a seismogragh during an earthquake and is very likely responsible for a lot of the global market volatility of the last 2 years. See:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPO?c...

7) Net Interest margin for all US banks has been in a nasty downtrend since 1994

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USNIM?...

Although not so much for the big banks

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USG15N...

A friend of mine's wife, concerned about the viability of her bank, had her husband purchase a home safe. Upon installation, she went to the bank to withdraw her savings of $175k. After questioning her about why she was ordering up her cash, the bank called her husband and asked if he knew what she was doing, even though this account was solely in her name. He asked why they were calling him as it was her money. It took two weeks for the bank to get the cash.

Another friend deposited a bank check written by one of his banks into his checking account at BankofAmerica. It was for $32k. BOA wanted to limit the availability of those funds for two weeks, citing some mumbo jumbo about the check taking time to clear. He then confronted a branch manager and told them all checks clear within 4 days and was told if he really needed the funds right away, they would see what they could do to make them available.

One can imagine the scenario if there is a run on banks for cash or a mass collapse of banks and how long it would take to receive a FDIC payment.

Stash some cash

Santa is in town alright, kicking ---. Real life fairy tale. Still seeing die-hard shorts refusing to capitulate on the blogs I'm following. 'Don't fight the Fed' is taking on new meaning for me.

If there is one, would be the 30-year fixed mortgage. Making fixed payments using devalued dollars would be one of the few pleasures left.

Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Announces Agreement with FDA on a Special Protocol Assessment for Phase 3 Trial of KRX-0401 (Perifosine) in the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma http://bit.ly/1oSbhu
Up 43%+

SEC charges BofA with making false statements http://bit.ly/DqQBY

File under ' Hype ' list....

It is important to understand what the Chinese are trying to accomplish by backing SDRs. The main goal of the international/financial policy of China is to decrease the US dollar’s importance in world trade while maintaining the USD’s value and stability. This is a logical goal given the decrease in the United States’ share of global output over the past decade...
...The dollar trap is a huge problem for China and no quick resolution is possible. As a result, China has a vested interest in the stability of the US dollar exchange rate for many years to come.

As far as the hypotheses about the multi-fold increase of gold’s share in China’s monetary reserves – while they may be correct – the process is likely to take a very long time. China, like any other major economy, is not interested in seeing gold prices increase and will make significant purchases only when large quantities are available for sale from other central banks. China is unlikely to buy gold in the open market unless gold falls significantly from current levels – providing a safety net for gold investors.

For years ahead, fuel for the precious metals bull market will continue to come from private investment demand which promises to rise sharply. A new wave of inflation in the coming years is inevitable.
http://tinyurl.com/m9jlkz

They settled for 33 million one hour after this was made public.

Didn't you have a exit strategy when you entered? Didn't your stops dictate your position size?

Yes, but I did not execute it...the same old problem for me...still thought I was correct on the direction of the market short term...I was wrong. Did not act on my stop on the short position. It is hard for me to trade against my judgement when the data seems so compelling-supporting my view.

Anyone have a suggestion on how to deal with this mentally?

OUCH - Got mowed over by a golf cart Sunday.
Green - Shorts were all nicely up Friday ["Should of" ...I KNOW!]
Red - Woke up to shorts all red. Covered all except DTO. Will ride that one out.
OUCH [2nd] - Don't know which is the bigger pain this market or my knee. Will take a few days off. Someone text me when the market hits 11,000.

Later everyone!

This just in across the wires:
http://breakpointtrades.com/file.php?id=9932

Taking my profits and will be on sideline

baz22 - No comprendo my friend, message too cryptic. Are you long/short/neutral???? Me:Neutral

I wasn't gonna mess with no premonition comin down 2nd Ave, sold my TZA at 16.20 last week. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I went with my youngest sister this morning to our counties sherriff auction. There were 21 properties on the list and six or seven were cancelled. A few of the houses did not even get a bid so there was no sale. I'm not sure if these go back to the lender or if they go up on another date.

Most of the properties went back to the plaintiff at the minimum bid, 2/3rds of appraised value. A few were bid on and the plaintiffs stopped bidding relatively early. She was able to get the house she wanted after the plaintiff bid once to open the bidding. She got it for $57k and it was appraised for $85k. She also gets the $8k tax credit as first time hoembuyer. There are some back taxes to pay but overall I think she got a good price.

I have been to other sales in the past and I bought my first house this way in 1999, a smaller house and lot in the same town as hers for $9k more by the way. My overall impression today was there were less bidders and an alarming amount of houses continuing to go back as REO.

Just messin', chick... Trading everyday, amigo... buying/selling...

Telling their shareholders they were not going to pay Merrill end-of-year bonuses and then turning around and paying $5.8B in bonuses garners BOA a $33M slap on the wrist from SEC:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

"a $33M slap on the wrist from SEC:"

This is one big reason why our country is in such trouble, it's more profitable to beg for forgiveness than ask for permission. Socialize the losses and privatize the gains....

I'm quite upset about this.

Bill said two weeks ago that S&P will probably hit 1000 in a week (which it just did) and will then quickly correct to 940. The first part of his prediction came true -- let's see if the second part comes true as well.

What do you think will be the impact of S&P above 1000? Since we got here after 3 weeks of a steady climb, all under-invested money managers have already had plenty of time to jump into this rally. So the impact of 1000, I believe, will be to motivate shorts to jump back in and for the longs to take some profits.

you bet I'm buying! :)

(Also, got carried away shopping over the weekend!)

When I bought some SLW at $8 a month or two ago, I set a sell limit order for it at $9.90 and then, in the face of such a flat action in SLW, I forgot about it as I was focused on the downside probabilities for the market. Well, SLW hit that limit today. This increased the short bias in my portfolio, since I am still keeping my shorts. Since we know that overbought phases of the market are always followed by oversold phases, I am just curious to see where my shorts (SRS, SKF and short FCX) will be during the oversold phase.

Here Is the SEC Statement on BofA’s Settlement of the Merrill Bonus Case: The saga of the bonuse.. http://bit.ly/4qE4aD

You said, "Yes, but I did not execute it...the same old problem for me."

I would sell out my positions.
I would sell out my positions.
I would sell out my positions.

You will be right eventually, but will your account survive.

Examine why you refused to not execute your plan. Until you understand why stop trading.

P.S. even when the indexes weakened earlier today, the a/d line barely weakened, the clue is simple but telling.

starting to catch a bid.

FD:
Own stock and options on this one as a lotto ticket.

Why don't we ever see the Rothchilds, et al., behind the Fed profits on those Wealth Lists? You know they've accummulated more than Murdoch, Gates, Soros, Buffett, Sultan of Brunei, House of Saud, Queen Elizabeth, and Michael Schumacher combined.

Guess I shouldn't ask ... it's verboten.

"1)I thought PIMCO co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian hit the nail on the head when he said that the July stock market rally was nothing more than a sugar high. Skyrocketing unemployment does not create new demand. We are going nowhere without a real housing recovery, which is impossible with gun shy lenders. What little improvement we are seeing in the economy stems from unsustainable government spending. If you think the last stimulus package was tough to get through congress, wait until the next one. With three quarters of Q2 earnings out now, it is clear that company managements panicked and shed staff like a fur coat in a New York summer.

This produced a string of top line disappointments and bottom line surprises. Companies can’t continue this, unless they want to shrink themselves out of existence. They are gaining weight by eating their seed corn. I think that if you want to go long here you are risking 10-15% to make 2-4%. It doesn’t look like a good risk/reward ratio to me. I prefer the inverse. There’s no law that says you have to trade every day of the year, despite what the brokers say. Better to keep your powder dry here with the S&P 500 at 993, and watch the long players inevitably crash and burn."

http://blog.madhedgefundtrader.com/

"DO NOT TRADE WHAT YOU THINK, TRADE WHAT YOU SEE.

So are you trading what you think the market should be doing, or are you trading with what the market is doing?"

I think I am doing the former... Thanks for your perspective and getting my head around on this...makes sense.

No longer am I going to question my stops. Like Bill's book says "Have a system and stick to it."

It seems my poor trades always seem to be the ones when I override my system...not implementing the prescribed stops and turning a short term trade into a long one. I seem to over analyze things.

Thanks again, Telestar3d.

Hammer- Try reading a few of the trading blogs, which are run by hosts who seem even less able than you might be to admit they're wrong. In many cases they're trading 7 figures.

The problem, as I see it, are the legions of devoted followers caught in the same boat, but without the resources to bail themselves out. And how does it help them to hear 'My longs [which I've naturally been hedging with and forgot to mention] still puts me ahead by x%,' or 'This same strategy returned 400 percentage points in 2008- just give it time.'

"Why don't we ever see the Rothchilds, et al., behind the Fed profits on those Wealth Lists? "

Probably has something to do with the fact they are one of the richest families on the planet and they don't want anybody to know how much they profit from the toils of the common man. They donated Yellowstone Valley for crying out loud, we owe them for eternity and for stealing their oxygen!

Don't I feel like a fool. Yet GS has been barely able to keep above resistance today. It is the inverse of SPY. What, someone doesn't like the shares? ;)

Thought about covering at close but seeing GS shares failing to keep up will wait and see what tomorrow brings. NVAX looks like its in accumulation so unless bad news disrupts the party I will unload ASAP. It appears that NVAX has a novel method of creating vaccinations that greatly reduces manufacturing time and with earnings coming up this week I might be stepping out of the frying pan and into the fire with this short if I hold much longer.

Bev, can you update the bond/SPX comparative chart please?

It's up to the dollar I guess to lend the shorts a hand. Up to 1.44 against the Euro without a rebound today.

These daytrader tickers I keep tabs on are fun to follow. It seems that they can become "hot" on more than one occasion and just scrolling through the 1 min. chart list during the day there is a penny to be made, on the long and short side, if appropriately capitalised. NVAX was an exception in having low volume, but its price did not suffer. That's a red flag.

JL is holding the following overnight if anyone is interested in following: $CNO, $CNXT, $COIN, $DENN, $NPBC, $OCNF, $OWW, $PMI, $RAD, $UIS, $WNC

I'll add them to the list tomorrow and if I'm forced to cover NVAX will look through them for a intra day swing trade - safer than holding overnight.

night all.

jmorris1950, when I look at the UNG chart for the past 3 months vs. SPX, I do not see any sizable correlation between them. It might be positive if one actually runs the formula, but it is much smaller than the correlation between all my other stocks and S&P. UNG might have rallied in sympathy with oil today...

As others have commented, I have seen gold run up, then down, up/down, etc. I don't think I have the ability to time (even reasonably close) the turns. So, starting some time last year, I have been mucking around with options.

The recent lift off might be the much anticipated TOG and if so, I wish the best to those still hanging in. I have used it to lighten up.

Sold 1/4 my position in UXG at 3.02. Sold covered calls for Jan 10 EGO at 1.45 and Mar 10 SLW at 1.70. All went higher after I sold, but so be it. If the options are exercised, I will not be unhappy, as it will be a good return. If not exercised, the practical result will be a reduction in my basis for those stocks.

Since you are on the topic of correlation, I thought you might like this website:

http://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/

If you check the correlation of UNG with SPY, they are 75% positively correlated over the past 1 year.

They will also give you lists of ETF's that are highly correlated or have low correlation.

Mark

If you want to see a video that really explains why we are where we are watch Bernanke inaction. After watching this video I shorted the Long bond=tbt.
I don't know whether to laugh or throw-up!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo

One source I use suggests UNG/SPY correlation for the last 6 months is 0.25, which is quite low.

ALOHA !!

Both Bill and Dr. Strangelove have mentioned problems with the USDX and Holy Crap is right!

Not only are we seeing major TAX REVENUE BREAKDOWN, but our US PUBLIC DEBT just jumped $88BIL USD in one day on Friday, July 31st! That is HUGE! On top of that MEDICARE exploded by $17BIL USD on last Friday. Everything is exploding from a DEBT perspective last Friday ... it was massive!

Now if we had one or the other it would not be so bad, but as I have pointed out we are getting both barrels at once ... a major TAX REVENUE collapse while simultaneous massive DEBT expansion via massive SPENDING. Look at the hundreds of billions the US Treasury wants to auction off in the coming weeks! Well, auction is one thing but SPENDING is quite another and there is no better place to track rampant SPENDING in America than the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT.

So while we hear CNBC lie about green shoots and the STIMULUS the US DEBT is kicking in even more so, which translates to higher inflationary pressure, which is being reflected in a CRASHING USDX and rising commodities. Geithner's STRONG DOLLAR POLICY is nothing but a stand-up act at the Beijing Improv! The Chinese know it ... everybody knows it! The real issue os "misallocation" of capital and this effects every business in the USA and is particularly a hugeissue for the US government, although Obama and the US Congress would never admit they are misallocating funds.

For my next weekly article on TAX REVENUE BREAKDOWN I will be doing some research on those ever loving "sweep accounts" that we are all forced to participate in, sometimes unknowingly, which ties into US Treasury Bills via MONEY MARKETS. I wonder what the ST US Securities would look like if we excluded "sweep accounts" from the short term data? Well, I am going to find out what that puzzle looks like ...

As I suspected all along by following the US TAX REVENUES and US TREASURY SPENDING it became apparent back in Q1 2009 that the Q4 2008 breakdown was confirmed and did signal a breakdown and downward pressure on the USDX, just like it did back in 2002 when it signaled the top of the USDX at 120. Given the low for that tax revenue cycle was 72 it appears the USDX may see a 40 handle on this leg down within the next two years.

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

"Look at the hundreds of billions the US Treasury wants to auction off in the coming weeks!"

That's $900 Billion of Treasury paper in the next two months if my understanding is correct. Relatively speaking, this is shorter term paper but if the Treasury doesn't have the cash when the notes come due, then alternative arrangements will have to be negotiated... (printy-printy?)

aside: EK did nicely today...

Pipeline's Berkeley Roasts High-Frequency Traders as "Natural Enemy" of Institutions

Traders Magazine Online News, July 23, 2009

Nina Mehta

In this Q&A, Alfred R. Berkeley III, a 30-year industry veteran, argues that the growth of high-frequency trading has hurt the ability of traditional buyside firms to execute orders with limited market impact. Exchanges and broker-dealers, pursuing market share, cater to high-frequency firms at the expense of institutions, said Berkeley, chairman of Pipeline Trading Systems, a block-trading platform geared to institutions and broker-dealers.

Al Berkeley, Pipeline Trading

Berkeley joined Pipeline in 2004. From 1996 to 2003, he was president and then vice chairman of Nasdaq Stock Market. Prior to that, he was a managing director at investment bank Alex. Brown & Sons. He co-founded the firm's technology group in 1975, three years after joining Alex. Brown. In this interview, conducted by Senior Editor Nina Mehta, Berkeley discusses block trading, high-frequency firms, pattern-recognition software, the national best bid and offer, and the regulatory landscape.

The full article can be found here:

http://tinyurl.com/kpwzzs

And this video commercial for Pipeline Trading Systems is for Sharkie:

http://www.pipelinetrading.com/images/Pipeline_Sha...

4. Obama
5. the Pope

anyone feel free to add to the list....

you guys are too funny!!!

so what is the move tomorrow?I should stay out, but could use some more shopping money!

vb

Pillzilla

I also joined you in FXP @9.10, was going to add to it @ 9.01 but got cold feet. I was able to get shares to short of FXI, re entered @ 43.41.

Thought you may find this interesting on the China bubble.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/03/chinas-st...

ALOHA !!

Ron posted - "Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein told employees to avoid making high profile purchases, the New York Post said, citing sources."

Now compare that to what the CEO of then San Francisco based BANK AMERICA sent out in the form of an employee memo to the employees of BANK AMERICA back in 1998. This is according to my wife who at that time was a Senior Computer Analyst working for Bank America in Concord, CA in their Information Security unit. The memo stated, "All employees should take time out of your day to stop by a Bank America ATM machine and make sure the machine is clean and in operating condition ..."

She and I still laugh about that!

My how times have changed as Bank America gives notice of some 600 nationwide branches closing. That's 600 less ATM machines that will not need cleaning!

So what is the difference between the GOLDMAN SACHS profits and those of Bank America or any other company in the USA? Last I looked I did not see an ex-EXXON CEO as US Treasury Secretary. GOLDMAN SACHS exists simply because of a MONEY MONOPOLY that makes the old OIL MONOPOLY look like Sesame Street!

When will the US Congress address the MONEY ANTI-TRUST issue?

Its way overdue ... about 96 years overdue!

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE!