[1:12pm ET] The concept of the Virtual Investment Club is one I am putting a lot of time into these days. With the help of about three dozen members of the community, we received an overwhelming volume of industry literature on Goldcorp, Silver Wheaton and Kinross. Our notes on the first two have just been published, and KGC is next.
Soon to come will be Research in Motion (RIMM/RIM), emerging solar and biotech, and US Gold (UXG) because these are ones that were requested the most. I plan to add to the list, so send me your ideas. Also, if you are an expert on an industry group or even one company that you feel would be a good one to cover, please send me an expression of your interest [billcara at gmail.com] with RESEARCH in the subject line.
Information is power; there is no need for it to be costly or delayed. With hundreds of you providing just a bit of information each, the database you’ll be able to access will be phenomenal.
Please let me know, if you haven’t already, how you might participate, if it’s possible. Thanks.
Comments
Analyst Ratings revisited: Lehman Brothers
Because banks started upgrading each other (on Thursday MS upped Deutsche, and Deutsche upped MS), I prepared an annotated chart of analysts recommendations on Lehman in 07/08: Analyst Ratings revisited: Lehman Brothers.
Have a nice weekend,
Olaf
Re: Analyst Ratings revisited: Lehman Brothers
Olaf,
Excellent work. By now, of course, we are no longer fooled by the antics of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B), but many are. The American public would like to believe those bankers are Americans first and bankers second, but, no, that will never happen.
dow
sell zone?
10 k ish at the fan line through 2005 highs.just a thought...
Bill Moyers interview with
Bill Moyers interview with Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D. Ohio) & Simon Johnson (MIT Sloan School of Management)
http://video.pbs.org/video/1290388692
Re: dow
tbar
Wanted to let you know I always enjoy your charts. Packed with info but kept simple. Please keep them coming.
Re: Bill Moyers interview with
JimG,
Thanks for the link. I'm passing it on to all my friends. This is the kind of thing which people on the right have been saying only in a lengthy, well reasoned and calm presentation.
Re: dow
Thx Bev, I enjoy charting and am tempted to make them less than simple far too often. The long term view appears to have more sustainable perspectives and inflection points, but surely no one can know. Dips below high and low inflection points can be bought often for tremendous gains it would seem.
Cheers
Virtual Investment Club
Could someone please direct me where to find the notes Bill mentioned for SLW and GG. TIA.
Re: Virtual Investment Club
If you click the Cara Trading advisors link, then it will be on the left hand side of the next page.
Inflation worries
On the Fed being worried about inflation, U.S. apartment vacancies are a 23-year high. Since many home buyers have been forced out of their homes (or should have been), presumably they would have moved back into rentals. If this is not actually happening, then where are these people? Did they move back with their parents? Are they on the streets? I read somewhere that many people live on their cars in the U.S. (is this true??).
Anyway, the problem is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported inflation in September 2009 showed the rent index was unchanged and the index for owners’equivalent rent increased +0.1%. In fact, BLS says first half 2009 compared with 2008 saw an increase of 3.1 %. The rent or "owner's equivalent rent" is a very significant part of the CPI. If the rent number reported or calculated is phony, then we should have had deflation last month.
"Rent of primary residence (rent) and Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence (rental equivalence) are the two main shelter components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).Rental equivalence".
Owner's equivalent rent is the largest component of the CPI at 23.83%. This plus rent of primary residence make up 29.96% of the CPI.
So, there as likely deflation, not inflation. It seems they can choose to report whatever number they want. So worries about inflation are very premature. On the other hand, the Fed could raise rates by 0.25%, that may well cause a bump up on the dollar, yet it will make no difference to the banks who are the one raking in all the profits.
Re: Virtual Investment Club
The GG and SLW notes should be posted here too sometime this weekend.
Re: Inflation worries
I think your analysis is sound regarding deflation if you focus squarely on the domestic economy. There is nothing happening internally re: employment, consumption trends, investment, or anything else that suggest inflation in the future.
That said, there can be massive inflation and much sooner due to the currency issue. In the event of a currency crisis when the rest of the world collectively pukes up its dollar assets including treasuries and says "enough is enough" regarding US money printing and Fed obfuscation, the sky is the limit for the subsequent loss in value of US dollar assets. This in turn means that things we import (and last time I checked we import most essentials including oil) can go up in price resulting in massive inflation - even the government reported kind.
This failure of the Fed to distinguish the international impact from the domestic impact of its policies - ( internal Keynesian economic measures re: money printing) could cost all of us too much real wealth to sit by peacefully and watch them destroy our country. A little Kaimu quote is appropriate in the case mainly - "it all works until it doesn't."
The hoped for solution will be an international agreement on currencies sometime in the near future. The disaster scenario is the Fed keeps lying to US Citizens and the rest of the world regarding its plans. To paraphrase Geithner - "we are not monetizing the debt." Yeah right.
Bill, perhaps I have been going about it all wrong...
Instead of asking where you think stock XYZ will be in 1 - 3 years, maybe it would be better to ask where do you think America will be in 1 - 3 years, if the same policies and same practices continue as they are today ? I know this might take a whole Commentary, maybe a week of Commentary's, but I'll leave that up to you. I know the direction you and your great team are taking ( in regards to investments in BRIC equities ), but I am worried about home base, America.
Thank you, and your team, for all the countless hours and hard work.
What are you trading Bill?
Good Evening Bill. I was wondering if you could be more definitive as to how you are positioned in the market. Just trying to get a handle on your attitude right now. I got the feeling that you have been caught a little off guard and that sell off last week you were thinking about never materialized so just curious? What percentage of trading cash is in the market. Long what? short what? Sectors would be fine. Again, I'm just trying to get a handle on SPECIFICALLY what you are doing. Right now we are in what we might all agree is a difficult decision making time. Many, not just here are in a qaundry. Many are refusing to commit go going long and thus missing what is happening. The trend is obviously up despite all the challenges many seem to be having accepting that. I too can't commit as much as I would like.
So many desperately want a scenario where thay ride this market down make great money and then load up and become stars when it inevitably rallies again and make up for missing March. When and even if this will this happen who knows.
I enjoy this blog and what you have to say but that juncture in the market may be coming soon and just want some feedback.
And by the way just what is so wrong with companies using trading algorithms that are perfectly legal to use. The name of the game is to make money right. I am very sure investors with companies using them are very happy with their performance
Re: Bill Moyers interview with
JimG, thanks for the Bill Moyers interview. I watched the whole program, and I have to say that the best came last with the presentation on the mountain climber Charlie Houston. That had nothing to do with making money. Sometimes I think we get too wrapped up in worrying--with good reason, mind you--about what's left of our money and how corrupt actors are robbing us blind, as the interviews with Marcy Kaptor and Simon Johnson illustrate. The footage on Houston provided a needed counterpoint--I couldn't help but be moved by the moral courage of this man. There's hope yet in this world. I recommend to everyone to watch the whole program and not miss out on Charlie Houston.
moving up the sell short stop order on F to $6.99
I am pretty sure F will break below $7 in the next few days. After that, it can either bounce off the $6.85 in a triple bottom formation (in which case I'll close my short at $6.99 without any losses) or it can pierce right through the $6.85 level and make a new low, confirming a downtrend (and bring me a lot of money on my short). I think this is a low-risk, high reward trade setup. Unless, of course, F touches my stop at $6.99 and heads up, in which case I'll close my short right away and wait for it to pierce the $7 level for real. As Alexander Elder wrote: "Beginners tend to make a single stab at a position and stay out if they are stopped out. Professionals, on the other hand, will attempt several entries before nailing down the trade they want."
Re: What are you trading Bill?
golong and baz22,
I'm up early to get this WIR done so I can get out and enjoy the spectacular weather on this holiday weekend. I will have lots to say in the WIR.
Yes, I was caught off guard, but two wrongs don't make a right, so I'll stay with my discipline.
As you will see in the WIR, the past 13 weeks has been a personal downer for me. I got too much caught up with regulators, vacation time, team building, and expanding the business on multiple fronts, and consequently I lost my focus on price series analysis. I intend to get it back, and since there are only so many hours in a week, this blog might suffer.
I am going to recruit a blog assistant. Now, I tried that in the past, and got some wonderful replies and all, and I even tried to automate much of the admin aspects of what I do because that takes more than half my time, but nothing worked. So, I will try again. I am open for suggestions, blog assistant candidates, whatever.
As to America's future, I think like a massive cruise ship takes a long time to turn itself around, regardless of what the captain orders, so too will America. I think if Pres. Obama could clear the decks of the present officer corps and replace them with unaligned interests who truly were Americans first, and he had 12 more years, and a political party that was let's say more in the camp of the entrepreneur and small business folk, he might get the job done rather than spending his time talking us to death. The good ship America is hitting the icebergs and this captain, like the last, doesn't have the experience to deal with it. He needs a huge management team that is focused on change and not protecting long-standing vested interests as well as their personal ones. So, yes, I think America is in trouble and will likely give up a lot of the global pie to the BRIC nations, and even to small countries that are able to pull themselves together faster. As international capital flows speed up, the time it takes for the US economy to fix itself takes longer. That's a new factor in the game.
In 1987, I gave a speech in Macau. It was on investing and I was told by the media that covered the event that there had never before been anybody speaking to the local people about price trends and cycles. At that time, very few of my friends even knew where Macau was, or what it was. Today, they know pretty much everything, and they are deciding things like which casinos there to invest in. In 1987, when considering an investment in casinos, or hotels, the choices were entirely in America. Today, America has spent its money and is now in so much debt it cannot get out of it. So much has changed in the past generation. In 1987, there was a movie called Wall Street in which Oliver Stone told everybody what America's problems were. The people loved the entertainment, but didn't listen.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_(film)
http://tinyurl.com/q6qwd
In another 20 years, I think America will build new strength around solar and biotech and advanced semi-conductors. These things just take time.
Re: dow
Yes thanks for the chart Tbar, looking at the Dow from a longer term perspective in your chart the first thing that struck me was the obvious over head resistance/congestion for the Dow from here in your yellow line.
On a different note 2 articles from the telegraph today that might be of interest :-
"Asian banks intervene to prop up weak dollar
Asian central banks moved to prop up the dollar yesterday as they sought to limit the damage that the currency's weakness could cause to their export industries."
http://tinyurl.com/ygd49lg
"Huge profits put Goldman on track for pay bonanza
Goldman Sachs is set to unveil huge profits this week, putting the Wall Street bank on track to award as much as $22bn (£13.7bn) in pay and bonuses at the end of the year."
http://tinyurl.com/yh6x6uk
Re: Inflation worries
SI02, soullek1,
Just as the use of Owner's Equivalent Rent hid evidence of the inflationary trend, it now delays the deflationary effect of falling home prices. Rents are beginning to fall and will continue, but this is definitely a trailing indicator.
The biggest inflation I have seen is in my real estate taxes. My Social Security will not increase, but my Medicare deduction will. (Just one of many hidden de facto taxes.) If the health care bill passes (in any form) we will see a terrific jump in taxes — first in fed and later in states. (This will come as an unfunded mandate.)
As you pointed out, the dollar dilution will be a massive tax and most people will be oblivious to it.
The latest report I saw says there will be a 47% drop in individuals' income tax this year. We will see creative taxing to match the creative spending — That's the Change I Can Believe In!
Watch what they do, not what they say. Too bad government must ignore the Bible these days — somewhere (Sorry, I can't give chapter and verse) — it says, "Let your Yes be yes and your No be no." Not a lot of room for parsing is given.
Re: Inflation worries
Grym
James 5:12
Re: Inflation worries
I am a renter since 2004. I rent a very comfortable top floor (no noisy upstairs neighbor) 1 bedroom apartment with a balcony (improves the view) in a well maintained high rise apartment building in upstate NY. The tenant population is a fairly constant 50% seniors who have always lived in the USA (like me) and 50% families, mostly of Indian and Pakistani origin, and there appears to be significant though smaller number of families of Chinese origin.
The lease is the usual 1 year lease which I renewed effective July 1 2009 with a $20 monthly rental increase.
Seniors mostly move for medical reasons or because of death. The turnover among seniors appears to be constant and minimal. Families seem to be moving out in greater numbers than before and the apartments they had occupied remain vacant longer. Some of my friends here mentioned that many of these families move out in the middle of the night with the assistance of friends with cars and vans. You wonder where all these people go. Some may not remain in the USA. Certainly those under financial stress might find it attractive to return to their homelands.
The real estate management here appears to be trying to deal with an increased number of unpaid rents by increasing late payments and penalties. Effective next month rent is required to be paid electronically instead of by mail.
Emerging Markets vs S&P
Sooner or later, I guess, most investors think about “Diversified” asset allocations. Various ETF’s offer some possibilities for consideration. “Emerging Markets” ETF’s and/or “BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China)” ETF’s certainly come to mind, but are they really diversified from S&P movements? It might seem that they should be since the companies in which they invest are outside the US, right?
To try to find an answer, I first looked for two relatively high volume Emerging Market ETF’s (EEM and VWO) and for two relatively high volume BRIC ETF’s (EEB and BIK). I then placed them along with the S&P on price performance charts (StockCharts tool) for comparison purposes. See Attachments below.
I don’t like what I see. While it is true that sometimes the ETF’s of both categories can rise or fall faster than the S&P, the direction and turning points of the moves were pretty much the same during the last 2 years of data for the charts. Thus, if the trend correlations continue into the future (for whatever reason), then investments in SPY, EEM, VWO, EEB, and BIK might all be expected to move together in the same direction - and not perhaps a good choice for diversification.
Perhaps, some individual companies within the holdings of these ETF’s might be something to look at?
.
"What makes a good ETF"
Sunday reading:
"The Good ETF"
http://alephblog.com/2009/10/09/the-good-etf/
Some good reasoning here although some of it is certainly over my head, but perhaps I should remedy that.
Have some rest today!
Sunday Morning Coffee: Puzzle Pieces
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/sunday-morning-...
Which one doesn't fit (the best)? I think it's equities and rates rising together, but I'm not taking the wager yet on the short-lived rate rally with economic weakness (post-stimulus mean reversion) already underway.
Will rates eventually rise? That's a given, but on Kevin Warsh's say so?
BIll, I took note of your answer ( to golong and myself )..
As I have read your words for over 5 years, you have been spot on... I can only think of one or two others that come close to what you have laid out, but they did not give as much information ( concrete thoughts ) on what might be AFTER the Fall.... I, too, have Always thought America has the technical advantage in the Labs ( private, universities, government ).... It has been obvious to me ( and many, many others, I am sure ), for some time, that China, Germany, Japan, etc.. can match our quality for Industrial goods ( heavy equipment, cars, etc )... Their construction equipment performs as well, and is often less expensive.. But the newer fields, as you mentioned in your reply... Solar and Biotech... America has the knowledge and the facilities to really stand out....
I just finished reading about Dow Chemical ( per Motley Fool )...' In 2007, Dow won a $ 20 million grant from the DOE to research and develop building integrated photovoltaics ( BIPV ) products. The result is Dow's Powerhouse Solar Shingle, which the company is bringing to market in partnership with solar-cell shop Global Solar Energy and home builders Lennar and Pulte Homes.
BIPV is thin-film copper-indium-gallium-diselenide ( CIGS ) solar cells in a flexible sub-strate. Dow estimates $ 5 Billion in revenues by 2015, and $ 10 - $ 11 Billion by 2020. This initial product is the first of many.' Other companies are already on the same track...
who bought US government debt?
An interesting article from the Council on Foreign Relations detailing the sources of US government debt purchases. Turns out "economic buyers" (i.e. non-official buyers) were net sellers during the past year. It really brings home what will happen if the Fed stops - or reverses - their buying of debt with printed money.
Some nice charts explain the magnitude of the situation clearly, and from this you can figure out why TLT tanked so hard on Bernanke's words last week.
http://blogs.cfr.org/geographics/2009/10/07/govern...
"Through the first two quarters of 2009, issuance has been financed primarily by official buyers. Official buyers often have motivations other than profit. The Federal Reserve is buying debt as a part of its quantitative easing program, while some foreign central banks are accumulating debt as a function of their currency policy. The Federal Reserve plans to slow and then stop its purchases by the end of the first quarter of 2010. This raises the question of who will replace this source of demand, and at what price."
Mems and Phase Change Memory ( PCM ).....
anyone that can explain PCM... ?.. looked at articles vs. Flash and Dram... seems that 4 G is what its going to be all about.. St. Micro, Infineon and IBM teaming up ??
Re: BIll, I took note of your answer ( to golong and myself )..
Hi baz, nice response. Solar power , to me, here in sunny Mexico, seems so obvious. Except for the cost. If Dow can make it affordable we will see a dramatic change.
Yesterday, on Reuters, we note that :
"Soros aims to invest $1 bln in green tech", so we may conclude that it includes solar.
Here: http://tiny.cc/cZDW3
Finally Mexico is creeping up in technical advancements now that China has long surpassed most countries in production efficiencies. Panels here ? (I hope)
And my Blackberry Curve was made in Mexico.
In 1986 Canada was giving away (throwing ?) grants to companies that were producing solar panels. I bought 3 for my sailboat.
Please, let history not repeat itself.
As much as I hope for the success of solar power, I remain skeptical.
(Soros?)
Allen
Re: Mems and Phase Change Memory ( PCM ).....
Any technical questions regarding computers and systems can always be answered by
"Toms Hardware"
http://www.tomshardware.com/index.html
Apparently PCM memory will be much reduced in size, 20 nm. China currently produces very thin, fast, memory. With a high failure rate in my experience.
Re: BIll, I took note of your answer ( to golong and myself )..
Thanks, Allen.... My concern ( wallet ) is , as the large utility companies integrate solar into their grid, its not coming free of charge. Duke Power Co. ( here in NC ) is already starting to incorporate solar plans, and guess what ? They are also requesting a 12 % rate increase across the board... I would hope that individual installation would take some of the power out of the utilities hands... Maybe they will still raise rates, but it seems they would have a more difficult time explaining their reasons to the State Utilities Commissions...
Re: Mr. October/ Part II>Extend and Pretend v Extend and Mend
"2nd, I don't agree with your "easing back into the workout routine" metaphor at all. I am much more persuaded by Black, the former bank regulator who insists its both possible, necessary, and indeed is the approach mandated by law. Assessing the damage for the bad loans against the risk investors (bondholders and stockholders) instead of against the American people at large seems more fair, and more in line with the set of principles our nation allegedly holds dear. Zero out the stockholders, convert the debt to equity, write down the bad assets to current market value, and spin the cleaned up companies back out to the public market. I suspect they'd fetch a nice price.
Do you take issue with Black and what he's proposed? Do you prefer the extend and pretend plan that Obama is supporting at this point? "If we all pretend hard enough that the banks are sound, why everything will eventually be fine, right?"
dave- Hey, I like Black's idea! Needless to say, I don't think the 'risk investors' will.
In my opinion, the clean-up of toxic assets (or any kind of toxic waste) takes time mainly for psychological reasons (rather than financial or technological reasons). People just need time to 'deal with it.' So time buys us the buy-in process (we might as well use the Kubler-Ross denial-anger-acceptance model). Bill throws out 12 years in one of his comments- that sounds about right.
Who's in charge here- the 'risk investors' or the 'American public at large?' How many times and how many ways did we play the power game in grade school and high school? Obama was elected President. Let's give him a chance to handle his term in office. He may disappoint us, or he may surprise us. The Office itself may end up galvanizing him into unexpected action(s) at any time.
Re: Mr. October/ Part II>Extend and Pretend v Extend and Mend
2nd - I'm beginning to understand your point of view a little better now. You're hopeful that eventually this sort of treatment will be applied to the system, and then our economy can heal for real. In the meantime, bailouts buy us time and reduce panic.
While I understand your viewpoint, I don't think it's likely to end up they way we would like it to.
I call this "kicking the can down the road." The risk is, while we are going down the road towards the kicked can, the banksters are frantically transferring all their crap assets to the public in exchange for FRNs which they then use to buy things of value, such as stocks, commodities, and treasuries.
This causes a market rally - increased liquidity makes Everything Go Up at Once!
So the story ends when the banksters have swapped their crap mortgages for equity (now that's what I call a debt to equity swap) - and the public ends up with the crap mortgages. At that moment we will run into that kicked can, at which point the mixed metaphors finally end up with the chickens coming home to roost.
"I'm shocked, simply shocked to find out those mortgages they sold the Fed weren't any good. They were rated Triple A by Moodys!"
JPMorgan Said to Drop Effort to Sell Chase Plaza in Manhattan
http://bit.ly/rL0Dg
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped its effort to sell the landmark lower Manhattan office tower, One Chase Manhattan Plaza, after receiving insufficient bids, according to a person familiar with the offering.
Manhattan office buildings have lost almost 47 percent of their value since peaking in 2007, the most of any major U.S. city, according to data from Concord Group, a Newport Beach, California-based consulting firm. Scarce credit and the recession are pushing up vacancy rates, allowing rents to decline and putting pressure on holders of commercial mortgages, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Sept. 30 report.
A bunch of nice indicator charts compiled for you, and a poll
The NYSE Summation index has broken its uptrend line, and its 21 day MA uptrend line.
All these indices are a permanent part of the resources available on the blog, so please visit and click through these links for a look at the guts of the market (internals).
I have screen capped all the resources below, so you can just scroll through. Fundamentals are bearish, of course. But we trade prices, not fundamentals.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/indicators...
The TED Spread looks like it put in a double bottom in September. God do I hate these Bloomberg charts -- it is almost insulting on how they present data. However, if you have a spare $40,000 per year or whatever it is, you can get the real Bloomberg, which is basically unmatched in all the financial industries. I used to have access to it.
The S&P Bullish Percent Index is heading upward again, bouncing off the 2007 highest level achieved. One could Place a rising wedge pattern on this.
The McClellan NYSE had a small 4% change on Friday. This portends a large move, in the next day or two or maybe three, however, the direction of the move is not known from this indicator.
If futures open down, I will sell on weakness, Sunday afternoon.
You may have noticed on my Chart of Charts that there is a huge amount of stocks that are forming patterns that could break out. This adds to the likelihood of a big move as predicted by the McClellans small move Friday.
3 Banks Blew up and were taken over by FDIC on Friday. Pretty consistent, 3 or 4 banks blow up every Friday.
I ran across this other blog that just had an amazing assortment of links to various economic data
Check it out
http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/
Econoday posts that Consumer credit is contracting at a continuing steep pace, while the consumer debt to income ratio has gone from a steady 23.5 to around 22.5. So even though incomes are going down, consumers are paying down their debt even faster. Remember the consumer is 70% of the economy, and financial gimmickry is 29% of economy, leaving the remaining 1% to the few people in this country who actually produce a product! hehe, OK that's an exaggeration.
Per Investors Intelligence, percent bears has actually been going up of late. Hmmm....
Re: A bunch of nice indicator charts compiled for you, and a ...
steveo
You're branching out now? No longer an ES exclusive. How's Douala? ;-)
Re: Emerging Markets vs S&P
spot, re. correlations among foreign ETFs and the SPY, I ran the numbers among all of them. I am still working on this file as the data is huge, but attached is a preliminary pdf that shows the correlations for Q3 2009 plus the first days of October (till Friday, correlations are dynamic). It is rather large so you need to zoom in. The first column is SPY with all the foreign ETFs. The correlations for SPY are clear (but not all foreign ETFs are highly correlated among themselves).
I think the way to diversify is through currencies, not these stock ETFs (for correlation of the currencies, please see http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/10/foreig...)
Glenfiddich on the rocks
Vad- It had to be a coincidence that both brands (Glenlivet also) were marked down at the local market yesterday. The only ones on sale- parent companies must be having a tough go of it in the recession.
Out of town Saturday night, so half an hour ago was my first experience uncorking a bottle of scotch (the distilled spirits we usually buy only require a counter-clockwise twist). It's a 12-year. Maybe I'll get the chance to try a [30-40-or even the 64] -year version some day.
Thanks for the (indirect) recommendation.
On the Fed's agenda: DJIA 10000 by October OPEX
Absolutely. I'd even bet Vad a bottle of 64-year-old Glenfiddich.
The time of year to place insane bets
A 3375:1 return? It could happen. It could have happened Saturday night (anyone who placed a 15:1 bet and let it ride for just three consecutive rolls would have made that kind of return). But the point is, parabolic moves occur in the markets as well. And they probably occur with greater frequency in the month of October.
Re: A bunch of nice indicator charts compiled for you, and a ...
ES may be one of the tougher ones to play, highly gamed.
Douala still posting good summaries too....
Re: A bunch of nice indicator charts compiled for you, and a ...
ES may be one of the tougher ones to play, highly gamed.
Douala still posting good summaries too....
Re: Emerging Markets vs S&P
Si02 - Nice work! Covers a lot of possible choices and all look to be more correlated with the S&P than I would want in my portfolio for purposes of diversity (although there might be other reasons).
One little quibble, though. FXP has a very nice NON-correlation with the S&P but then one might expect it to be so because it is an UltraShort. Must have been thrown into the list just to prove the veracity of all the positive correlations - gg. On the other hand, I guess using an UltraShort fund is a pretty good way to get diversity of results.
Re: Currencies. Yes, but changes come very fast and are totally manipulated imo. I have considered going to a weekly trade routine to cut out some of the noise and just trade UUP and UDN while keeping my bets small and in line with weekly ATR.
Re: Emerging Markets vs S&P
Hi spot, thx.
Color-coded version: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/StJmvY1V0aI/... Article coming up later tonight.
Yes, FXP is an inverse, it's included because it's a also foreign stock ETF. However, it is still highly correlated (just negatively correlated, but still correlated, it's all the same), so for the purposes of diversification it is no good. What you want is a number close to zero.
Interestingly, the best uncorrelated stocks are in Chile, which is another great place to invest. Chile is the only other country in the region which is investment grade besides Brazil, and it was so before Brazil. http://nexalogic.com/latin.html tracks the ADRs.
The choices we make
It happens a lot in the movies, but it happens all the time in real life as well:
(a) Baby It's You. The great Sayles film. Is it a foregone conclusion that the girl leaves behind the high school boyfriend when she leaves for the college the boyfriend has no hope of attending?
(b) Foregoing marriage to take care of aging parents. I know someone who did just that.
(c) Staying in the inner city at 25 because it's the 'right thing to do.' How does it look from the vantage point of 55? Also know someone who stayed (in Detroit) in support of a decaying neighborhood.
(d) Marrying for money. Marrying for love. What happens when one or the other disappears? Sometimes around the corner, as soon as we turn to look.
(e) What's really important, anyway? If you believe life comes to an end with death, then I can understand there may be some unbearable moments.
No man, it's not the Glenfiddich. It's a business meeting I had this afternoon. When I look back, I hope it will not be a series of work-related achievements I remember.
WIR
I've always respected Bill for being candid. There was once a TV show called Candid Camera that Americans tuned in to because we all recognized ourselves in the set-ups. People have built-in bull---t detectors that (at least collectively) are difficult to circumvent. 2008 and 2009 have been remarkable years- is there anyone who is not having a difficult time navigating the markets using what's worked in the past?
Weather forecast
When the gambling mentality (psychology and tactics) rises to the forefront of successful approaches to trading, I think we're nearing the end of some kind of trading climate.
Everything ultimately reverts to the mean.
Nov 9th
For sometime now I have been seeing this Nov 9th date referred to as a possible turning point. Especially this past week.
1) Interesting post by a trader by the name of bananaben on ES.
"...I read an article about 6 wks ago on chrismartenson.com which mentioned that the Chinese have made it clear that the Fed needs to wrap up their QE by the end of the month and then start draining out the excess liquidity. It implied that they would be looking for confirmation of this in early November."
[Bev's note: The thread of posts that followed kept referring to the Nov 9th date]
2) http://www.grainbeltcommodities.com/research.aspx
I found this to be a very good video. Just over 10 mins long but well worth the watch. If you are pressed for time at least watch from 6:30-7:45. Interesting scenario and again he even mentions Nov 9th.
3) From the McHugh weekend report [see attached]
Of course I am not recommending that anyone base a trade on this date but at least put a post note up to remind you. Never know...
Hopefully I will see everyone tomorrow at the bell. This will definitely be an interesting week.
Fed Said to Consider Clearing Banks, Drain Facility
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&si...
preparing to buy more SRS
I see that $USD keeps rallying and S&P futures have turned from green to red over the past couple of hours. If S&P has a nice down day on Monday, then its chart will start looking like a double top, meaning that one can easily go short on any price declines from here and place a buy to cover stop order just above the previous high of 1075 or so.
I have just placed a buy stop limit order on SRS, stop at $9.70, limit $9.75. If this order gets executed but then IYR rallies above $44, I'll sell all of my SRS, as IYR will no longer be making lower highs. I am using a 4 times larger position size for this order than for the ones I was previously placing, because now my strategy for limiting my losses is to use stops rather than simply relying on small positions sizes.
Re: Bill Moyers interview with
A very insightful interview by Bill Moyers.
Kaptur/Paul for President and Vice President or vice versa
The third segment is a tremendous inspiration about Charles Houston, thanks for posting.
OT Charles Houston
Here is the longer version for those interested or having the time.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/archives/houston...
Re: preparing to buy more SRS
I am confused now: $USD keeps rallying (is at $76.60 already) and the market futures are green again! This sets up for the possibility of a pullback in $USD on Monday (after a pretty good rally off Thursday's low at $75.8), which will most likely give another boost to equities. So I am taking off my buy stop order on SRS. If it rockets higher on Monday, I'll be content with seeing the shares I bought after hours on Friday at $9.60 rise.
Re: Bill Moyers interview with
It is no doubt that the individual States are now hostage to the Banksters and the Feds due to a variety of actions including not foreclosing and liquidating housing (i.e. no property taxes paid in local economies). Anything, health taxes, carbon taxes, end of tax "cuts", no matter how justified, that raises Federal taxes and drains money from communities and States will hasten the problem of local economic collapse. See
U.S. states suffer "unbelievable" revenue shortages
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTR...
and Denninger
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
DRIV is getting extreme
DRIV is getting extreme haircut
07:00 DRIV Informed by Symantec that it will not extend E-Commerce contract beyond June 30, 2010 expiration
Re: DRIV is getting extreme
Wooow.... There has to be a lot of upset DRIV holders today.
46% aged 16-24 had jobs in September. Lowest since 1948
http://bit.ly/xMmIh
So new graduates fighting the unemployed.
The unemployed fighting baby boomers.
The rest of the unemployed going back to get mba, hoping that may help.
mba grads fighting the still unemployed.
All for the same job.
Fun fun fun.
Re: DRIV is getting extreme
Just in case anyone needs any evidence of how clueless analysts with their upgrades and downgrades can be and how useless those targets they assign are:
21 Sep 2009 08:02 DRIV Stifel Nicolaus Initiates DRIV with Buy, price target: $54
16 Sep 2009 07:24 DRIV Credit Suisse Raised DRIV to Outperform from Neutral, price target: $44
29 Jul 2009 21:56 DRIV Price Target raised to $44 from $41 at BofA/Merrill Lynch, maintains Buy rating
30 Jul 2009 06:50 DRIV DB Cuts DRIV to Hold from Buy, price target: $37
Re: DRIV is getting extreme
Vad
There was no way anyone, unless you were inside the decision making process at DRIV, know that this would happen. Correct?
Re: DRIV is getting extreme
Vad, hopefully the public are waking up to the fact that those targets don't mean anything. I thought about it on Friday watching the price action on RIMM - perfect case and point. The analyst upgrades the stock that morning and all the sheople pile in and by the end of the day the price closed lower than it opened and well off its high for the day. Great for us traders but for the people who actually believe this BS - well sorry about their luck. Happy Thanksgiving to all my fellow Canadians and happy Columbus day to my American friends.
Re: DRIV is getting extreme
Obviously not... up to this morning chart looked bullish and started consolidating for the break of 41 41.20 area for the next upward thrust...
Re: DRIV is getting extreme
Does that mean you're DRIVing today, Vad?
Re: preparing to buy more SRS
David- Yeah, stay prudent if you're counter-trend. May get that 8-handle.
NCS
bought more at $3.38
Re: 46% aged 16-24 had jobs in September. Lowest since 1948
NYUGrad,
A very disturbing, but IMO, not unexpected situation. I recently read those over 55 are the largest group currently finding jobs.
This is totally logical since these people are already desperate, many have some resources, others are on Soc. Sec. & Medicare — no employer health care issue.
The idea that employers should be responsible for health care is stupid. They must add it to their product or service and we all pay. It is no different than thinking they should supply your food.
When one of my sons lost his job and could only get a couple of part time jobs I convinced him to keep his own major medical coverage. He as been at his current job since 2002 and although there have been layoffs I am convinced that it has been to his advantage not to cost his employer that extra bit.
If I needed employees I would look to those who, all else being equal, would cost me less.
Looking around it is obvious this has been happening for years. Illegal immigrants are cheaper labor. H1-b visa employees are cheaper — advanced degreed people from India are cheaper than new US grads. (Just ask Bill Gates.)
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning. Sorry, a late night with the Philadelphia Phillies has delayed today's report.
BDK - initiated at Barclays with an Overweight rating and $55 price target. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates set at $1.70 and $2.32, respectively.
GOOG - PT Raised from $520 to $600 @Kaufman Bros. Buy
GOOG - estimates, target raised at Goldman. Shares of GOOG now seen reaching $585. Estimates also boosted, to reflect higher expected ad spending. Buy rating.
GOOG - price target boosted at Thomas Weisel to $620 from $530 on belief that the company is cyclical recovery play. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates set at $21.78 and $24.75, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.
IBM - target raised at UBS to $125. Expect the company to keep exceeding earnings guidance. Neutral rating.
INFY - PT Raised from $40 to $55 @ Jefferies & Co. Buy
INTC - numbers raised at FBR. Shares now seen reaching $23. Estimates also boosted, to reflect positive sales momentum. Market Perform rating.
KO - estimates, target increased at UBS. KO estimates were raised through 2010. Company is seeing steady volume growth across the globe. Neutral rating and new $57 price target.
LLTC - numbers increased at FBR. Target up to $22. Estimates also raised, to reflect improving economic trends. Underperform rating.
NOK - Downgraded to Neutral @ HSBC
QCOM - estimates raised at Goldman through 2011. Market is undervaluing the company's royalty stream. Buy rating and $54 price target.
WAG - PT Raised from $35 to $40 @ Jefferies & Co. Hold
Shippers
I started buying into shippers on Friday after seeing the Baltic Dry Index going back up and believing that there will be a change in sentiment on these companies. I bought OCNF at $1.26 and PRGN at $4.48. I believe these have enough risk to make the trade rewarding but these in particular have enough financing to ease my bankruptcy concerns.
Re: DRIV is getting extreme
Not necessary. Often these fresh kills are not really edible... we'll see
Re: Nov 9th
Bev,
Thanks for Chap & Verse.
This video reinforces my view. As you may know I am seldom a day trader. I guess I have gone from an investor to a swing trader and have been playing the bond swings and parking my cash in a GNMA fund.
I see little hope of any return to what in my life has been considered normal.
I plan to stay long on VTI with hard stops, trade gold ETFs and stocks and be ready to dump everything except bullion with any major, market direction changing event.
Pinned to the ground?
One hallmark of this rally has been the tenacity of the shorts. Remember those summer holidays when you would test an older cousin by unloading squirt guns on him until he finally got up, wrestled you to the ground, and pinned you down? You would struggle furiously, refusing to give in. That was, however, the only way to get free. And then you could unload another squirt gun on him. Shoot and run- that's the only strategy the bears have right now.
uyg
with a zero borrowing rate, and lending out above that, don't you think that we will have significant upside surprises on the financials this week. Even if there is further announced write-downs, the capital markets have increased activity over the last quarter.
Re: Bill Moyers interview with
JimG,
Thanks for linking the interview.
I did not know that it cost the US taxpayer $130Billion ($10Billion was the stated cost of the crisis when it occurred) for the S&L crisis bailout, that we are still paying for it and that we will continue to pay for it through 2013. The rot has been growing for too many years to be cured.
I am no longer shocked that Congress will not pass a Health Care Bill with a Public Option. I am shocked to discover that Sen. Finance Chair Max Baucus hired staffer Liz Fowler from her job as VP of Public Policy for Wellpoint and that Wellpoint hired her predecessor on Baucus' Committee as a lobbyist. I am even more shocked now by his statement that he saw merit to the Public Option but will not support it because of the lack of 60 Senate votes in favor of it. These people have no shame.
New all-time intraday lows: SSG, TYP, FAZ, ERY
Technology, financials, and energy driving the rally.
Re: New all-time intraday lows: SSG, TYP, FAZ, ERY
i think its the usd driving this rally
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
QLD/FAS/ERX>> 52.15/86.80/46.35
Driving with traffic. Not that I think it will be a smooth ride.
Re: New all-time intraday lows: SSG, TYP, FAZ, ERY
Well, OK. Then it's the Fed driving the rally. Or maybe it's the Fed not intervening in the rally.
10k a foregone conclusion
???
Re: 10k a foregone conclusion
Yes.
Re: 10k a foregone conclusion/ Manifest Destiny
Just seemed appropriate to be using high school history analogies on Columbus Day. Of course, some people would say DJIA 10000 is a national delusion.
home sales down 12% year/year
for sept. in charlotte, home of bac..
Sector Divergences
Interesting that the NQ and TF futures are still noticeably below their 2009 highs set about two weeks ago while the S&P futures actually broke out to new highs in the overnight session today. Perhaps this is a sign that the more speculative stocks are having more difficulty maintaining their advance. Also, the dow transports are not at new highs, while the dow industrials are.
Re: Shippers
TOF, what's your time horiz for OCNF and PRGN or is this a quick scalp? What stops are you using ? For OCNF - the daily MA is still bearish, while the hourly and 30 minutes are sideways/slightly bullish. It is oversold in the sort term. PRGN has a strong bullish case on all fronts :-) Care to comment on my analysis too? Thanks !
"Democrats Weigh Tax On Financial Transactions" gains momentum
http://bit.ly/3TwFQo
Reversion to the Mean: Buy-and-Hold, Bill Miller, Marty Whitman
All three have kicked --s since March.
Re: QLD/FAS/ERX>> 52.15/86.80/46.35>>Off FAS 87.48
Locking in profits on the front-runner.
Re: QLD/ERX>> 52.15/46.35>>Off QLD/ERY 52.19/46.59
Mid-morning pull-back time?
60-second pull-back?
This train doesn't want to stop.
Re: Shippers
Joe - I'm willing to hold these for more than just a trade. I did notice volume picking up in OCNF's case on up days which to me means there is a bullish sentiment in the stock. I believe both have sufficient funding so I think they have good risk-reward setups. I think in a month or so they will be up quite a bit, but if I'm wrong I'll cut my losses at 5 to 8%.
I think the sentiment will change on these and everyone is looking at DRYS as a barometer, which I think is wrong. I think that company has major issues including lack of confidence in management. To me, NM is the best of the shippers, but they don't have the upside potential that I see in the two I put money into.
Eyeing the SSG convertible
They've been slashing prices on this beauty every day for the past week.
IMMR
I've noticed quite a bullish move in one of my watch list stocks IMMR in the past few weeks. Volume has been light but they're in the sweet spot of the smartphone market right now...if they sign up AAPL for their haptics technology, look out. But I believe I saw somewhere that AAPL has made a move to develop their own haptics (force feedback when you touch the screen) that gets around IMMR patents...
Taking the SSG for a test drive @ 21.15
...
Lola: Well I'm not dumb but I can't understand why
Mr. Market talks like a Bear but walks like a Bull
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRopmfinsWk
Re: Taking the SSG for a test drive @ 21.15/OFF 21.31
Once around the block.
Time to bargain with the salesman.
yrcw
is this a sympathy trade on csx for tomorrow nite?
Re: Lola: Well I'm not dumb but I can't understand why
Bulls will be bears and bears will be bulls
It's a mixed up muddled up shook up world
Except to Mr. Market
2nd ave
2nd ave represents 25% of the 91 posts on this thread. Too much coffee?
Dr. S- Scotch, coffee, cars, music
Dr. S- Scotch, coffee, cars and music reflect 25% of life's concerns, no?
(Not at the day job today. Youngest has no school [Columbus Day], so just killing time until the day starts.)
Driving back to the QLD dealer> Second test drive @ 52.04
Have to admit though, I like the SSG.
Re: 2nd ave
The market is like watching paint dry today, plus a half holiday today.
The market on the wild side.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ88oTITMoM&feature...
P.S. There is an ignore user button if you no like, brah. I miss the rubber duckie's wit.
10yr Trending Line Holding
http://tinyurl.com/yfyh6ma
Re: 2nd ave
t3d- That's a classic. Great clips of NYC. I have that one and 'Stephanie Says' saved on my hard drive.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8jGKp4kbeM
Re: 10k a foregone conclusion/ Manifest Destiny
I would say that when nearly everyone has become disillusioned, delusion is the next logical step for der spinmeisters.
Agriculture Paper
Intell
Jim Rogers: Gold Will Hit $2000, Dollar Will Lose Reserve Status
http://tinyurl.com/yk2g5tv
Re: Jim Rogers: Gold Will Hit $2000, Dollar Will Lose ...
If you are the media, and know what he will say, why not bring him on when what he says will serve you best?
Re: Jim Rogers: Gold Will Hit $2000, Dollar Will Lose ...
You could be right. There's probably a media dispatch service. Someone calls the dispatcher, and the dispatcher calls out addresses. 'Yo, it's the Bow-Tie. Mid-Manhattan."
BEE
Bought a little of my favorite junk hotel REIT at $2.34.
AAPL
http://tiny.cc/G4fc4
According to the above, iphone sales in China may be light.
In my view that would not be surprising. Its an expensive cell phone
". . . the phone is selling for 5,999 RMB for the 8 GB model, 6,999 RMB for the 16 GB version and 7,000 for the 32 GB version. Translated to dollars, that would be $879, $1026 and $1172."
Re: Agriculture Paper
There's a breakout in the DBA today. Ag commods are relatively cheap right now, and there has just been an early freeze in the upper midwest (due to global warming, no doubt!!~).
Was prostitution legalized in America.......??
Just wondering how much the dog and pony show at bubblevision makes daily.... OK, I am being to harsh.... NOT.
Re: AAPL
Woah! I should sell mine now on alibaba.com! With the proceeds buy 2 more in U.S. Rinse/Repeat. My own little ponzi scheme.
uco
oil looks like it may bust through 75. demand down, BUT production down also. API on wednesday will tell the story. In at 12.22
Not much volume on this selloff
This should be easy for "Value" investors to stop the bleeding. let's see the volume action along with the price action.
bought a lot of SRS
Let me try my luck at day trading again today: just bought a lot of SRS at $9.63, as $9.60 used to serve as a resistance line on the daily chart and now it became the support level. Will sell if SRS drops to $9.60.
The right time to buy SRS was, of course, at $9.50, where on the daily chart it showed a clear resistance to going lower for a number of ticks. One could have bought at $9.50 and set a mental stop at $9.48. Unfortunately, I was doing something else at the moment and missed that formation...
NCS
Bought some more at $3.33. Average at $3.31.
I Heart Marcy Kaptur - Hip Hop version of 10 rules of HB&B
http://bit.ly/kgykS
Love it!
YRCW - Billysundance
I noticed that the Oct. $5 call option volume (22k) for YRCW is pretty high today. They are probably making some speculative bets on the following event. It looks like they majority are thinking the banks will be lenient.
http://economy.kansascity.com/?q=node/4274
YRCW faces Tuesday deadline on key lending requirement
Under pressure from lenders
The Wall Street Journal posted a story online sizing up YRC Worldwide Inc. The trucker faces a key test this week in its battle to steer clear of a bankruptcy-protection filing that may hinge on whether lenders to the U.S. trucking group maintain leniency on its covenants sown over the past year.
The rest of the story:
Debt-laden YRC must "maintain liquidity equal to or greater than $100 million at all times" beginning Tuesday, according to a requirement of its lenders.
The Overland Park, company pegged its liquidity at $218 million at the end of June, but it hasn't publicly updated the figure since then and a spokesman declined to provide any further detail.
Analysts said YRC has been using cash at a high rate despite its efforts to pay down debt and raise money through real estate sales, or its efforts to cut costs through employee concessions, layoffs and other means.
Wolfe Research analyst Edward Wolfe estimated the company's cash-burn at "roughly $50 million per month" in a research report published two weeks ago.
YRC's banks and other lenders have been hesitant to push it into bankruptcy protection, however, agreeing instead to multiple amendments to its debt covenants to give it more time. For instance, the $100 million liquidity requirement had been set to kick in earlier before being put off until Tuesday.
Another requirement amended to kick in Tuesday instead of earlier mandates that YRC pay a $10 million fee to some of its lenders if, among other things, it doesn't have corporate credit ratings of B/B2 or better by then from Moody's Investors Service Inc. and Standard & Poor's.
out of SRS at $9.67
May be a tad premature, but by looking at the live ticks I am getting a feeling that the up move is finished for now, and on my very large position the $0.04 profit is $160, so it is pretty decent.
VIX
A VIX chart by a a trader nameJoe. I find his charts very useful. Wanted to share it here.
http://tinyurl.com/yho8pk9
[Let me know if you find this useful. I can post others by him as I find them.]
taking another pass at SRS at $9.66
Risky business this time, but I'll try to cut my losses quickly... The spike down I was afraid of did materialize all the way down to $9.62, but now the way up for SRS *might* be clear. Or maybe not...
Re: taking another pass at SRS at $9.66
Sold at $9.66, to make sure a profit does not turn into a loss.
Re: YRCW - Billysundance
Ulvy, action on the $5 October call has been very bizarre for the last few days. In fact, when the stock was being crushed on Friday, there was bullish action in the $5 call and open interest increased from 25K contracts to 40K contracts.
Today YRCW made an announcement regarding an amended credit agreement:
YRC Worldwide and Its Lenders Agree to Extend Provisions under the Credit Facilities
http://tinyurl.com/yf63cgj
"YRC Worldwide Inc. (Nasdaq: YRCW - News) today announced that it has finalized amendments of its credit facilities that extend to October 30, 2009 certain provisions under the previous amendments. Specifically, the amendments extend the expiration of the revolver reserve amount, the suspension of the minimum liquidity covenant, and the due date for the asset-backed securitization commitment fee of $10 million....."
After this came the stock shot up, but the premium on the 5 Oct call actually weakened. This indicated to me that although the response to the amendments was positive, that it eliminated the possibility of a full plan being unveiled before the end of the week (and thus acrushed the premium on the $5 call, since albeit bullish, the market is no longer expecting a wild upside move prior to next week.)
One thing is likely - the same banks that provide financing to YRCW are heaviy involved in the equity and options markets and can benefit from their own knowledge of the negotiations between YRCW and their lenders. In the short term, I am cautiously bullish on YRCW - acknowledging that lenders will be able to push around the stock until an agreement is reached. Longer term I am bullish on YRCW.
back into SRS at $9.69
Last time, I promise. :) It seems to want to go up, and the down moves seem to be short and designed to shake out the weak hands.
Thank you Goldman for saving us. Here is your $22B bonus
Wake up Obama. Wake up America!
http://bit.ly/1nwP2s
out of SRS at $9.65
Back to flat for the day... The last few trades were risky and opportunistic, which should teach me not to trade when there is no clear pattern (unlike the first trade I made on a clear pattern of a breakout above $9.60 resistance level).
Re: Thank you Goldman for saving us. Here is your $22B bonus
I've seen GS being chastised for what they did, allegedly did, may have done.... but this is a first I see where they are getting flogged for what they may or may not do, guess being based on guess about what they may or may not announce at some uncertain point in the future.
Google search yields 12,800 instances of "10,000" on cnbc
If you know how to use advance searching on google, you can try for yourself. or paste this search term in the box.
10,000 site:cnbc.com
You can replace the "10,000" with anything you would like and it will search the domain that you position after site:
They are selling stock to us.
Time the word "Bullish" appears = 17,600
"Bearish" = 5,180
Re: Thank you Goldman for saving us. Here is your $22B bonus
This is their new trick up their sleeve they picked up from the govt. putting feelers out before the real announcement, to gauge what to do. "We will defend the dollar, but we wont, but we will, but we wont, but we will..."
2nd [Just for you]
I love stuff like this. It made me think of you from some of your posts telling us of your youth. Enjoy!
http://yayeveryday.com/post/6469
"The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
http://bit.ly/Fr8ns
Re: out of SRS at $9.65
David- You have to do better than that. We're thinking of asking you to pick up the check for the sushi.
Just kidding...
Re: The QLD dealer> Second test drive @ 52.04/still holding,
unfortunately.
Had to go out for lunch. Made a bet the markets would close higher than they did. Discipline calls for taking it off after-hours, which I will.
Still ahead for the day.
Re: 2nd [Just for you]
Bev- Reminded me of Christian Bale in Batman Begins. I prefer seeing him with a beard.
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
It looks like every other sharp drop off in the past was followed by a quick recovery. I don't think this time will be different.
By the way, I find it hard to listen to anything Henry Blodget ever says after openly touting internet stocks back in the late 90's while privately writing negative about them. I'm shocked he even has a job. I wouldn't even hire him to shine my shoe...he would probably try to steal my sole.
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
tof- He now drives a cab for the media.
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
He prob isnt the best to report on such news. but the point i was trying to make was that unemployment is no longer some sports score. the trough, which we dont know if it is the trough, is further along than any period before it.
Where is the recovery going to come from? not wall st. not car manufacturing. Not housing construction. Maybe the military.
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
NYU- I think you nailed it. Afghanistan.
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
i don't know. i bet it comes from somewhere we least expect it, probably just as it has in the past.
Did Anyone Notice?
The S&P closed at a 52 week high today. BAC closed above $18.
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
Or as Craig would say, a war somewhere, just as it has in the past. It may 'start' where we least expect it, as in Pearl Harbor or the World Trade Center.
Feed the Machine
Some G rated after-hours entertainment: (Soulstar featuring the irrepressible Reverend Billy)
http://tinyurl.com/yh4ekks
Re: Did Anyone Notice?
Did anyone notice the volume has been decreasing every day since Oct 1?
I'm guessing that's all about waiting for earnings to arrive. But closing on a high with progressively lighter volume, it doesn't remind me of the price volume action when GLD did its thing at the beginning of September. Average volume on SLW has been double normal since it broke out. GG too. But SPX? Its a big yawn. Ho hum, another high.
What does it mean?
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
Bullard Says Lower Unemployment Condition to Tighten
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
P.S. Hey Ducks, feed me, feed me, just give me some blood. Or in Bevs case a haircut.
Re: Did Anyone Notice?
Maybe we should be reading into volume less with the leverage in the system going away??? Think about how much extra volume was in the system due to hedge funds and the like leveraging up...just a thought.
best single investment in history
per ritholtz, it's the banksters' investment in campaigns and lobbying:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/single-best-i...
Re: best single investment in history
Well, a few lottery tickets may have returned a little more ;)
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
From Bullard, "...as the U.S. economy emerges from the worst recession since the Great Depression."
This comment which the spinner want you to accept as a given is a huge jump from reality.
Check out what Hussman has to say this week about observing elephants.
http://hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
Like any of us lesser humans, Hussman can be wrong too. He was telling people to be defensive in March.
What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
If I recall correctly, in late 2007/early 2008, we were all targeting a sell-off to DJIA 10000/NDQ 2000. Right now, we're basically at DJIA 10000/NDQ 2000.
Maybe we should be buying?
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
Definitely we should not be buying now. I'm totally feeling like capitulating and buying, and if that's not a sign of a top, I don't know what is.
I wish I were kidding!
Being Wrong
The best professors acknowledge the truth, that it may all be wrong.
In 1979, a professor in one of psychology classes interrupted his lecture at one point to say, "You all know that just because you read something in a book, it doesn't necessarily mean it's the truth, right? Not even mine. Anyone can get a book published."
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
dave- I hear you. But they've been saying the same thing for at least 3 months.
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
I would just re-read WIR 41.
Excerpts:
I added though, “Of course, we believe that a rally here would present another opportunity to sell into strength. Underlying that decision is my overall concern that the credit market issues have not been fixed, and that the $USD is going to move higher. So if there is going to be one step down coming for the $USD, I expect it to be followed by two steps up.”
(Gold) I think the music is pretty close to the end, and the last dancers ready to depart the floor.
As I pointed out, a week ago, “These are big rises in a short time for the $GOLD MA’s, which likely have been a concern to the Fed. The Fed could step in soon to support the $USD. So, I will stand aside and wait for the outcome.” But who knew it was going to be up $50/oz over the next four days except maybe for the goldbug who wrote: “They just don’t get it”.
Actually I do get it. I told a lot of grieving traders to hang in at $950 two months ago. I opined then that the market would be witness to a final romp and then the dance would be over. This week was a helluva dance; I wish I had joined for a good time even though I expected it to be a short time."
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
This is also from WIR #41:
"The one thing that I’m personally disappointed in is not trading each day 100% in and 100% out before the close, and simply telling the clients that’s the way it has to be for the short run. If I knew I was going to be flat every day, I wouldn’t hesitate to buy every dip (and hold my nose)."
It depends on one's trading style.
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
agreed
CIT - No interest in Debt Swaps, Bankruptcy Looms
"CIT Group Inc is seeing little interest from bondholders in a debt exchange offer aimed at repairing its fragile balance sheet, making bankruptcy increasingly likely, sources familiar with the matter said."
http://bit.ly/1UIg7x
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
Like any of us lesser humans, Hussman can be wrong too. He was telling people to be defensive in March."
Does that make him wrong? Maybe just early.
After a tech bubble and a housing bubble the current government strategy is building an equity bubble.
There is absolutely nothing which has happened in the past year to justify this kind of index surge. It's fine for trading, but conditions in the US and globally are the worst in my 71 years. We have unemployment comp, but are dependent on foreign goods. Not good with a declining dollar.
We've gone from the largest lender to the largest borrower — this is tragic whether we consider individual, municipal, or national debt. It cannot end soon or well.
I'd say, "be defensive" is good advice.
Re: "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"
TF
get your facts straight: I've read hussman for the past 7 years.....Q4/2008- 1Q 2009 was the most bullish he has ever been. Yes he said we can get to 400-500 on the S&P IF the marcket dropped to 1974 or 1932 valuations
his work is some of the best available. Some times the timeing is spot on some times he is way early.........but he has rarely been wrong IMHO.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090316.htm
March 16, 2009
"On the basis of a wide variety of evidence, my own impression is that the S&P 500 is moderately undervalued, at about the level that is likely to produce total returns on the order of 10-12% annually over the coming decade."
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc081027.htm
October 27, 2008
Risk Management and Hooke's Law
"So one of the casualties of easing credit fears is likely to be weakness in the U.S. dollar, and a concurrent strengthening in commodities – particularly precious metals, which serve as a currency substitute. Given the pricing of precious metals shares here, it would not be unexpected to see the XAU roughly double within the next 12 months from these levels."
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc071112.htm
November 12, 2007
Expecting A Recession
"My intent here is not to encourage disciplined investors to deviate from carefully considered investment plans. But if a recession or a bear market would produce unacceptable losses or would force you to abandon your investment plan, it is best to begin altering your investment position immediately (even if not entirely at once) toward a position that you can maintain regardless of market outcomes. If your position is inappropriate, do not wait for an “ideal” opportunity to change it. Begin changing it immediately, and continue to change it in steps – larger steps when you can get favorable prices, smaller steps when you have to do it at adverse prices. The important thing is to start immediately and decide in advance to move step-by-step over a reasonably limited period of time, until your position is appropriate. "
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
I always thought it was panic, and stated ( several weeks ago ) that the flush happened around 7500 ( to 7800 ).... But.... as I have said for 6 months, although the Financial Crisis is over, the Funding Crisis has Just Begun... A drop back to 7500 is well within reason... America out of the woods ?? Hardly... I have also though for some time now, that Stagflation will rear its ugly head within a year..
Storm headed for Bay Area>A weather report that makes it fun
50 MPH Winds Possible Late Tonight As Component Of Predicted Big Ass Storm, Major Storm Expected To Hit SF Monday, Boaters Warned Away From Water During This Week's Storm
As if you didn't already know, a cold front that's headed in our directions has connected with the remnants of Typhoon Melor, making a magical meteorological cocktail that has forecasters like National Weather Service's Diana Henderson predicting doom and disaster.
The storm's expected to hit at about midnight tonight (spooky!) and Henderson says that by "commute time it should be fairly nasty, and it should remain fairly ugly probably throughout the afternoon commute."
SFist reminds us that San Franciscans can score as many as 10 sandbags per address TOTALLY FOR FREE from the Department of Public Works Corporation Yard.
Here in San Francisco, we should expect 1-3 inches of rain and really high winds. Rainfall is expected to taper off Wednesday and Thursday should be "fairly nice" and partly cloudy, Henderson said.
So, lay in the provisions! Batten the hatches! 3 inches of wet are on the way!
http://sfappeal.com/news/2009/10/-previously-50-mp...
2 nd/...
I did not mean to come off sounding like I have the answers... I don't... I just listen to CNBC ( to much ) for any trading clues during the day, and their triad is incessant... I know they trot out the selected nay-sayers, but jump right back to ' the Trend '... Yes, that is what we all trade, and that is the chosen reality for that time reference ( days, weeks, months )... They (anchors ) are doing their jobs.. But, the problem I have, is CNBC has the largest audience, and the largest voice... No one can deny the influence Cramer has, right or wrong.. I firmly believe that smaller large Institutional trading arms use his rhetoric for short term gains, and stretch it, if they can. Cramer is smart, no doubt. But that doesn't give him, CNBC, or anyone else on the air the right to push agenda's that are always behind the scenes.... So, I trade, and in my heart of hearts cannot dismiss the absolute despair I feel for America... I love this country, and absolutely hate seeing the mess we are in... But, like Bill, I cannot fully invest, simply because of the quants and the big money behind them. To me, 10,000 is just another number... I will pay much more heed if we hit 11,200.... best of trades, Baz.
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
I was tempted to go to the IBD website and look up whats hot. My tempter was Dr Wish with this table:
wishingwealthblog.com/2009/10/ibd-100-list-top-ten-do-outperform/#more-2058
After that episode I did nothing. I don't chase momentum and now is not the time for me to change. I believe we are fast approaching a point in SPX that will tell us which way to go. A close above 1080 and holding is a key point for another run up, IMHO.
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
May I offer another angle to ponder?
A few questions at the end of this short missive are worth thinking about.
Each print on the tape is a product of an agreement about the price and disagreement about direction. The sum of the prints creates price movement - product and reflection of constant fluid agreement about the price. Thus, the price at any given moment is a reflection of that collective agreement at that moment. From this point of view,
- what does the very concept of "price belonging somewhere" mean?
- What is the measurement of that belonging?
- Belong at 6500 or at 10000 - according to what?
- Isn't price always where it belongs at that particular point in time, according to the agreement at that point?
Map of the Market
Found this as a link over at Shocked Investor:
http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/
Rather useful, no?
Cramer
"Cramer is smart, no doubt."
Baz,
Many bi-polars are near genius. It is when they get off their meds that they explode or get depressed. Cramer no doubt gets the best of supervised care.
Todd Harrison's online book is my source for Cramer's condition.
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
Vad: "Each print on the tape is a product of an agreement about the price and disagreement about direction. ...."
Brilliant! Underscores the admonition to "live in the present".
Cramer
Regarding Cramer
Cramer doesn't have to be smart or dumb. Whoever owns Cramer is a marketing genius who has identified the largest audidence of couch potatoes who trade online. Then, once identified, the marketer creates a clown that the audience respects and trust.
this is sales 101
now, I personally always take into consideration what cramer says not because he is brilliant but because he has such a large audience of fans that trade based on his calls. Cramer's fans could grow exponentially for the next few years so I would factor this in to my trades.
just my vbeans
vb
Re: Cramer
Point(s) well taken VB. Would be nice to have a database or current account of his recommendations or whatever they are. I doubt if anyone here can do that due to a lack of attention span on his show.
Re: Cramer
Try this for his charitable portfolio stocks
http://www.jim-cramer-charitable-trust-stocks.com/
Not sure this is what I'd call supporting the $
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-did-us-sdr-ho...
Re: BEE
TOF I'm back in it too for around that price... Looks like it has formed a symmetrical triangle type continuation pattern which should target around 3.80 to 4.00. If we do get that pop, I might keep some shares just for the heck of it for a longer term hold. I remember buying GLW (corning) during the tech-wreck for around the same price and selling it with glee for a 50% gain only to see it become a 10 bagger over the following years...
KC
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
Illini not really sure how important 1080 is but the next stop of importance is 1100 to close the gap.
Anyway, all of this is such a classic Brain Cluster F..k. No one wants to go long because the crash is imminent for all the fundamental reasoning being ballyhooed. No one wants to go long beacuse the crash is imminent yet the charts reflecting literally hundreds of stocks in amazingly bullish formations are going largely ignored. everyone is in denial and casught in the same twilight zone of doing nothing. Everyone thinks 10,000 or 1100 is the next critical move and have been thinking this way a awhile now (perhaps 1000 to 1500 Dow points and but very few it appears have decided to go long despite sub consiously knowing it will happen and could have made BIG money to those points. Why becasue the crash is iminent. It takes balls to trade and the people that make the big money have the biggest of them. Very soon this will have to be a call that we will all be making. WHY
Because when the market does break down most of us most likely will NOW say Ahhhh this is just a fade and it will bounce back instead of going short. Then it will fall some more and we will say oh it's fallen too much and will recover and then guess what you will have missed the move we have all been waiting for.
We need to get our heads out of the sand and go with your own instincts, the charts and using stops wisely and not so tight. If yo uhave to lose some maney lose it with no regrets but make it with commitment!!! and forget all the bullcrap out there.
Ladders Against the Clouds
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/status-bored.html
Bofa and sec reach agreement on merril?
http://bit.ly/7Mv8f
still not 1 evildoer has been brought to justice. I am in the wrong profession.
Re: Analyst Ratings revisited: Lehman Brothers
I am late to read this post but awesome! I also noted the slew of upgrades. Stock is being sold hard by talking heads and advisors. Mom and pop should be liquidating to hb&b now. "let me upgrade you"
USD getting trashed this am
I better ask for a raise
Re: 2 nd/...
baz22,
"So, I trade, and in my heart of hearts cannot dismiss the absolute despair I feel for America... I love this country, and absolutely hate seeing the mess we are in... But, like Bill, I cannot fully invest, simply because of the quants and the big money behind them. To me, 10,000 is just another number... I will pay much more heed if we hit 11,200.... best of trades, Baz."
I'm sure many of us feel the same.
As for Dow 10,000 (or any number) the dollar, too many people are blissfully unaware of the implications a weaker dollar will have on the indexes and all else. I see this, as Kiamu has so often pointed out, as the greatest stealth destroyer to the American life style.
A Dow 10,000 may go to the Dow 35,000 once expected, but what then the price of oil, etc. We would be better served to measure in hours worked for a loaf of bread.
Re: What if 6500 was panic, and now we're back where we belong?
"- what does the very concept of "price belonging somewhere" mean?
- What is the measurement of that belonging?
- Belong at 6500 or at 10000 - according to what?
- Isn't price always where it belongs at that particular point in time, according to the agreement at that point?"
Yes!
A more direct way of saying what this week's Hussman Zen view covered.
Re: out of SRS at $9.65
David
You might get your wish today with the futures in the red...I am short on PLCE and LLY, both on major resistance.
Joe
INTC earnings out at 530 pm EDT today
Anyone gaming the after-hours?
Do you really want to be holding ahead of results?
TYP @ 11.91
...