Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009

Earlier in the year the stench was in the air and no one took time to take a sniff.
"Does this guy has an economic model of political economy in his head...I don't think so"
http://tinyurl.com/9lfrrl
Christopher Walker warned us about the slick Geithner and I didn't notice any tea parties protesting his nomination. The slick never paid taxes, what did we expect from him. I hope is not too late.
I did my part, I forward Bill's article to the old GE and DD alumn.
Joe

There is rampant fraud.

The appearance of fraud in the financial and political system is so pervasive that in my mind and, I suspect that in the minds of a vast majority of investors, the burden has shifted. We presume fraud and that presumption will have to be overcome if our trust is ever to return.

We have abundant reasons for our presumption. A few examples:

Presumed rating agency fraud in assigning AAA ratings to junk debt especially including junk debt secured by worthless mortgages.

Presumed mortgage fraud in the issuance of so many mortgages to non-credit worthy people. A further presumption of mortgage fraud is to be found in the failure to produce documents in Court foreclosure proceedings. I presume that the documents are not available because they were fraudulently produced (forged or altered).

Presumed conspiracy and fraud in the manipulation of capital markets to produce absurdly large profits for the people who run the system at the expense of the public.

Presumed fraud in the legislative process and the products it produces to the extent that it is hard to cite an example where the presumption should not apply.

A few show trials will not convince me of anything. The presumption is too strong to be easily overcome.

Yep, Grym, don't count on getting the truth from The News Hour.

And juxtaposed against the grotesque greed of Goldman Sachs is this story from today's SF Chronicle:

Thousands at Cow Palace seeking mortgage help

And then, of course, there's this little piece of news that reminds us that nothing, absolutely NOTHING, is changing under this Administration:

Goldman exec named first COO of SEC enforcement

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LkusicUL2s

I have been watching this pattern for yrs.
-In 1970 the 1966 low was breached which was a buying opportunity.
-1972 higher high
-In late 1974 the 1970 low was breached and was a buying opportunity.

Not that the rest will happen as before but it has to date followed the same pattern pretty well.

here is 1961-1979
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USSP5001970.gif

and attached is the current timeframe, amazing the downtrend and uptrend from 2000 high and 2003 low intersect with price today.

The dark blue zig zag I placed on the chart last march,reasoning that the 2001 monthly close lows may be resistance and the 2002 monthly close highs may be support.

While Goldman is arguably the best at "legalized stealing" from hard working people, they aren't the only crook on the block. Governments around the world (not just the US) were handing out money left and right back then. And many still are. The whole system is rigged as Bill has opined countless times in the last few years.

Bill's ingenious move to relocate his operation to the Bahamas is only starting to shine in these months (to me). In addition to voting with your ballot, we can vote with our tax money.

However, for those of us that still rely on a day job, this is not an option. The best I can do right now is to become adequate with managing my own money instead of depending on the financial salesmen. This doesn't seem enough for me as the balance of power seem to be getting worse by the day.

What have others done/plan to do with regard to this unfair trap us working bees are in?

spot & Lori,

re: Buy and Hold

I have a very good friend who has had his retirement investments in Vanguard Total Stock Market and Total Bond Funds. When we were together at New Year's he was shocked to be down about 33% overall. All he planned to do was his one time annually re-balance between the two.

Since then VTSMX is up 25.07% and VBMFX is up 5.83% and he has made it clear he doesn't want to hear anymore from me about fraud, mismanagement, etc.

B&H is like a religion with him.

We talk about other things now.

I know this goes against a lot of what everyone considers as a good investment idea, but I really like PLD. Yep, it's a REIT. However, they have been able to refinance a large majority of their debt, they're still profitable, and the stock looks to be in a clear defined uptrend. The 50 DMA has been great support for the stock ever since it broke up above it's 200 DMA>

I bet goldman does it WITH the help of that prof, who was a Harvard BUSINESS School prof.

I'd bet he consults with Wall St. Lots of them do - as in Larry Summers, while presumably in Harvard's Economics Dept.

If the Newshour did their job, they'd explain whom each of their "experts" gets paid by before they get into their schtick.

Modern Portfolio/efficient market people say no. Fundamentalists say no. Technical analysts think yes. Some real quants say no, but you can still develop an "edge".

I think if you look from far enough away, YES, it can be predicted. Ben Stein co-wrote a book "Yes you can Time the Market" - based on historical stock valuations (via P/E, P/S, Tobin ratio, etc.) BUT he would have take you out of the market in 1995, and not put you back in till 2003. Few could resist the lure of tech from 95 to 99.

Jeremy Grantham DID call in year 2000 for NO real returns over the next eight years. He looked at divergence (in 2000) from the mean ratio of S&P average to S&P earnings, and KNEW it would revert to the mean. (register at GMO.com, and you can read his BRILLIANT analysis for free.)

SO, I think you CAN time the market if your time horizon is 8 to 10 years. But I also am concluding that "technical analysis" doesn't work, and merely creates the market "folklore" against which smart traders position themselves. Long term macro guys look at valuation.

Hussman.net is a good source of analysis which takes both fundies and market action into account. BUT the return on Hussman Funds doesn't look all that great. Then there is Bill Miller, and Ken Heebner, and other "lucky chimps" who successfully threw darts at the financial page for a few years, then crashed.

FWIW, DYODD

Every time I read another professorial type spouting random/efficient market nonsense, I can't help but wonder...

I never danced (pathetic attempt at my own wedding doesn't count, alright?). I don't know how to dance, don't understand how people who do know actually do that. And you know what? I do NOT write anything about ballet. I don't express opinions on whether dancing can actually be done, on merits of this or that production or talent of this or that dancer.

I also do not sing. And, as a direct consequence of absence of any knowledge in that area, you won't find any reviews of any opera written by me.

Now... how come people who never traded actual markets or never made a dime trying consider themselves qualified to express opinions on whether it can be done, on what market actually is, why and how it moves?

Random? Really? There are no patterns whatsoever in it? Whatever happens, market overall and particular stocks just jump around with no rhyme or reason? Looking at the chart, those academics do not see such thing as trends? How blind should one be not to see them?

Efficient? Any of academics promoting that cr*p actually asked themselves how come prices change at all then? If market was efficient who would have ever taken the other side of the trade? Wouldn't market find the spot of total balance once and for all and never moved from there if it was efficient?

Let me describe in the simplest terms possible what market is, why it moves and how, according to these definitions, it can be read and exploited (I dislike term "predicted").

The market is a conglomerate of all the participants expressing their opinions in a form of placed orders. At any given moment the price formed by the executed orders reflects the collective consensus about the current price and disagreement about the direction. Participant's decisions are being influenced by zillion factors and processed through their, participants, emotional and intellectual filters before eventually manifesting themselves in a form of placed orders. In order to read the price movements caused by all these factors, observer must read the emotions of the participants. The market movement is essentially a derivative of a mass psychology. Now the question is: Knowing to a certain extent the input (external information coming to market participants) and understanding the patterns of mass reactions, can you forecast the output (mass actions in the market)? Answer is fairly obvious: you can't PREDICT it with 100% certainty since a)it's impossible to possess ALL the input information and b)human behavior can be described in terms of odds, not absolute certainties. So there you have it: it's NOT random in a sense that there are patterns; it CAN'T be predicted in a sense that it's not 100% certain, and it CAN be exploited as long as one understands the patterns of human behavior and possesses strict discipline necessary to stop being a part of the mass behavior.

LLY........

http://bit.ly/j03Ko

10/16 and 10/17

I highly recommend. McClellan Oscillator explained. Good technical discussion & VIX

No, but after second glass of vodka all bets are off...

Low budget? Probably. But this movie had my full attention for 90 minutes. Not once did I consider pausing. Almost better if you pop it into the DVD drive/player knowing nothing about the story line.

If market movements are entirely random, then explain to me how Vad makes a living trading those movements.

The way professional gamblers have for ages - with strict risk control. Van Tharp has a chapter on backtests of this - a black box can make money consistently even with random entry and nothing but an atr-based stop for exit. The important part is keeping risk per trade at 1% or less (if I recall correctly). Vad, being a careful observer, unlike the efficient market academic scribblers, discerns the macroscopic structures which we lowly traders see every day in the market, and so his edge is much greater on the entries and exits. Ehlers in one of his books uses I believe the analogy of a smoke cloud for the market. The smoke particles may be chaotic or completely random at the microscopic scale, but the smoke cloud has structure and flow which are easily discernable to a keen observer and it's even predictable at the macroscopic level. There are lots of things like this in the sciences - e.g. atomic phenomena are random i.e. you can't exactly predict where a tiny particle is located but you can predict the behavior of assemblages of particles using things like quantum mechanics. Substitute market orders for particles and you get the idea. I'd be surprised if Goldman Sachs didn't have an army of MIT PhDs exploiting these principles via their basement full of supercomputers.

FUTURES: Yes especially if you are on the top step of the various pits and rings that abound the futures markets where the brokers hang out. So many traders have made fortunes knowing where all the stops were and then electing them for their own accounts and then taking the market right back up or down in favor of their positions. No psycology there. But Vad is correct about psychological trading aspects of the market but, I don't think it is that difficult to get a handle on it for day trading versus position trading.

EQUITIES: are not much different. I mean you can probably do a probablity and statistical analysis very easily using daily time and sales data on just how many times the market will trade one way on the opening and then reverse itself towards lunch when everyone wants to be flat and then do it again toward the closing in the same way or opposite way. This is not rocket science. The challenge is believing in this and jumping on the bandwagon.

CURRENTLY: Many are looking at the 1102-08 area of SPX as the potential top give or take for a massive level of resistance (gap has been closed) and thus a sell off should ensue. Now assume it gets there and all these sell orders get elected and but there is no real momentume downwards after that then being long would probably become the logical step as many will be covering their perverbial butts. I think if you just go back to your trading 101 books most of this is covered but all we listening?

I think it is also important to stay tuned to what the futures markets are doing and not just the equity market in putting on and taking off stock index and other financial instrument related positions.

Your analogies to dancing and singing remind me of a saying concerning art.

"Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach."

An oversimplification, but I made a comfortable living by drawing, painting and finally using computers to illustrate products, instruction sheets, etc.

Most of the market theories and predictions (IMO) are most valuable to the author of the books and newsletters. I continue to be amazed that people are still subscribing to: The Kiplinger Newsletter, Money Magazine (I get them from my neighbor who has lost big time the past year.) I watched Kiplinger's picks one year (pre-2007) and they were down over 20% on average. Now they have essentially been saying, "Sure we were wrong, but everyone lost money. Here are is where to put your money now."

How many times has Bill mentioned the key is managing risk. You can't win 'em all, but above all keep from taking big losses!

There ARE those who make money timing trades in various time spans using their own techniques, but consistently forecasting anything is not something I can believe in except in general terms. Watch the weather channel if you want, but buy an umbrella!

I predict we will see far more predictions — of that I am confident :-)

Sorry, maybe it's just my residual anger toward this "Maestro", but I think he misses all the attention and will do anything, say anything to regain some of it.

I read the book and was under impressed with him before, after and still.

David - On the topic of Cognac, I have been a long-time devotee of Hennessy and have found it to have very excellent medicinal qualities for restoring mood after a stressful day. I have not detected any unpleasant aftertaste but a person’s taste buds are not universal in results; so, my taste sensations might not match anyone else.

Hi... What metrics would ( did ) you use for XOM, prior to the past 2 weeks' rise ?.. . I was plotting XOM's ' buy ' ( from $ 69.70, 4 weeks ago) points from the triangle it had formed for the past 5 months ( in .50 cent intervals ), but was getting pretty concerned untill it hit $ 66.15 ( appx. matching the prior 2 month low) and took off like a rocket.... what would you be looking for now, with XOM at $ 73.00 ? A retrace to the $ 71 range, and holding moves with the rise/fall of oil prices ?...... Thanks, Baz.

spot, Vad: thank you for the idea about Hennessy. I guess I do need to figure it out as well (and classify it according to my taste relative to other brands and also absolutely), since it is such a popular brand. I tried Hennessy VS many times, since it can be purchased at Costco for only $22.99, but I eventually realized that it is pretty rough on initial contact (unlike Courvoisier XO, which is rather smooth). I suppose now it is time to move to Hennessy VSOP and see if I can detect a difference (in a blind test) between it and Hennessy VS.

Lessmore,

the debt reduction stastics are gathered from various sources: credit bureaus (repositories) to whom creditors report available and current balances, the consumer counselling agencies who assist consumers to set up a repayment plan, and Ch 13 (individual) or Ch 11 (business) debt restructure.

You don't carry debt if you pay your cards off every month...and the powers that be HATE that because you are not paying interest on your balance. I'm surprised you still have any creditors willing to keep you on as so many have cut the 'free riders' off completely!

In recent years during the run up of easy credit, Americans were trained to think: "should I swipe or should I refi?"...with little regard for mounting debt. Your credit card company blithely extended your available credit without being asked! Your mortgage bank offered an Equity Line like large fries with your Big Mac. Even Greenspan told consumers to "tap your home equity" and refinance to enjoy life or consolidate debt (pay off credit cards). Research has shown that a well trained consumer, with freshly paid off zero balances (now liened against their home) will quickly run up their balances again. When actual hardship strikes, the same consumer will resort to those enticing 'cash checks' attached to their credit card bills...for an even higher cash advance interest rate. In short, we have been taught to live like there is no tomorrow. I get calls daily from home and business owners now cut off from the easy credit they had come to expect. Retraining is painful. Most people I encounter in these circumstances were lulled into thinking their ARM mortgage could be refinanced 'later'... The biggest shock of all was finding your equity had been overtapped and your home, your 'goldmine' has been devalued. Thank you, Mr Greenspan, for this economic lesson. Debt reduction is a bitter pill for those who drank the koolaid.

Many people who have woken up from this dream are actively paying their mortgages AND their debt. The smart ones.

Those like yourself who live within your means and pay off your credit cards are an annoyance to HB&B because you don't pay much interest, overcharges or late fees. How have you escaped the great American Dream Hypnosis?

Aloha,
I found the following to be exactly some of the questions I have been asking myself. No one knows the future but a good read to ponder .
It's long but it's Sunday. Does not mean that I agree 100% but it helps me see the questions I might not be asking myself.

Some Observations about Spot Interest Rates and Forward Interest Rates: with help from Jason Benderly, Jim Bianco, Ned Davis & Howard Simons
October 18, 2009

"In a normal cycle one can make some reasonable projections about the changes in interest rates when the economy bottoms. The usual sequence is that the Fed first allows the economic recovery to gain traction and then eventually starts to tighten policy by raising the short-term interest rate. Other rates also rise, first in anticipation of Fed action and then as the Fed persists. At some point the Fed reaches a level which slows the inflation tendency of the economy. The yield curve flattens and longer-term rates stop rising, even as short-term rates continue to do so. In extreme cases the short-term rate is pushed above the long-term rate.
We are not in a normal cycle.
The operation of interest rates and Fed policy is quite different this time, as the Fed is engaged in quantitative easing; there is no serious inflation, there is huge federal debt issuance and the policy-prescribed interest rate is effectively near zero. Traditional dynamics of monetary policy don’t work. There are many reasons why this is true, and we will discuss them in future Commentaries. Japan is an example of how this zero-rate status with no inflation and huge deficits can persist for a very long time.
The reason traditional policy may not fully apply to the United States, is because it is the world’s biggest provider of a reserve currency. But some of the reasons do apply, in part, and are at work today. That is why the long-term Treasury yield remains quite low and why those who keep sounding warnings about much higher interest rates have been frustrated by the markets.
A zero short-term policy rate is anchoring the entire Treasury yield curve. Benderly Economics recently reviewed the last 50 years of history and noted that “10 year yields have never moved more than 350 basis points above the Fed Funds rate.” Today the Fed Funds rate is targeted between zero and 25 basis points (one quarter of one percent). True to history, the 10-yr Treasury yield seems contained to an upper rate of 3.75%. That level has defined the top of a trading range; the bottom is defined as much lower.
Large deficits do not seem to matter much to the market’s setting of interest rates. This is and has been true in Japan and seems to be the case in the US. We all know that the government is borrowing trillions and will likely continue to do so for years and years. In spite of this information, the Treasury bond rate remains low.
Of course, a 3.75% 10-year rate and a zero short-term rate mean the yield curve is very steep. A steep curve allows the projection of forward rates, which quickly come into play in bond portfolio management. One of the great pieces of research work on forward rates and forward rate ratios is done by Howard Simons and Jim Bianco. We pay close attention to their commentaries every time they release them.
Forward rates allow a portfolio manager to make choices. Here is a simple example. Let’s say the very short-term rate is zero; the one-year rate is 1%, and the two-year rate is 2%. An investor can have absolute liquidity and earn nothing. Or she can tie up her money for one year and earn 1%. If she chooses the 2% rate for two years, she is implicitly betting that the one-year rate will be 3% or lower one year from now. Let’s ignore compounding and use just simple annual rates for this example; we will explain how we reach the conclusion.
The investor with the two-year time horizon can be guaranteed the 2% rate for the entire two years right now. If he chooses the one-year 1% rate instead, he is now betting that the second year will yield a higher rate, such that his total over the two years exceeds what he can get as a guaranteed result right now. In this case a 1% for the first year and a 3% for the second year would equal the 2% for the entire period of two years.
The investor who thought that rates in year two would be much higher than 3% would choose the one-year option. The investor who thought the second-year rate would be lower than 3% would choose the two-year option. The investor who didn’t know what to do would choose the overnight rate of zero and defer the decision. Change the numbers slightly and you have the decision tree that every investor is wrestling with today.
The same logic applies when you compare the 10-year rate with the 5-year rate or many other combinations of forward rates. The process of forward rate adjustment is dynamic and ongoing which is why the movement of any rate impacts all rates. It is the forward rates that function to limit the steepness of the yield curve in times when the central bank’s policy is setting the shortest rate at zero.
There are many models used to forecast what the 10-year Treasury yield SHOULD BE. Each has strengths and weaknesses. Most practitioners have their favorites. But all of us know that no model works perfectly. If there were a perfect model and I knew it, I wouldn’t be writing this Commentary or sweating out these portfolio-management decisions.
A review of most of the models would suggest that the 10-year Treasury yield SHOULD BE about 3% on the low end, if the models are based on assumptions of some continuing economic weakness. The upper level of the SHOULD BE range is about 4.5%, based upon assumptions that the economy will be recovering on a sustained path and that some little bits of inflation will eventually emerge. If you average out the various models, the 10-year Treasury yield should be between 3.25% and 4%, or right about where it is now at 3.4%.
We like Ned Davis’ model, which uses four factors and creates a “fair value” of 4.27% today. This model allows the user to modify the assumptions about the direction of the factors. Ned admits that the present trends suggest his fair-value computation could soon be deriving a lower yield. That is our view, too. Ned’s model is not widely known, so it doesn’t suffer from a Goodhart’s Law effect. And it is tested by a nearly a half-century of data and has worked well in both high- and low-inflation-rate regimes and in both high- and low-interest-rate environments.
We get similar results when we apply our own internal and proprietary models. They are based on inflation-adjusted holding returns and use year-over-year computations to eliminate seasonality.
One cause of concern was recently noted by Howard Simons as he discussed China’s currency peg to the US dollar and how a floating yuan would cause US rates to face large upward pressure. Howard is on to something and demonstrates it well by comparing the euro vs. the dollar and how the China policy works with each one.
To this point, at Cumberland we do not expect the Chinese to engage in any policy that is not in their longer-term self-interest. Orderly markets and economic growth by selling stuff to the world are at the top of their agenda. China employs 50 million people making low-cost items to sell to Americans and Europeans. As long as that drives their policy they will continue to manage their currency such that they stay competitive as to price. That means their reserves will continue to grow, because they will have to keep managing their currency exchange rate against the dollar.
At Cumberland we have maintained long duration in our bond accounts for a considerable period, and clients have benefitted by this approach. We emphasized “spread product” over Treasury bonds and watched spreads narrow to the benefit of clients. We continue to do that today.
We expect to gradually reposition duration to a more neutral point over the coming months. We are not ready to go to very short duration. We do not see rates abruptly going higher. That is out in the future and not at hand today. We cannot say if significantly higher rates are a year away or three years away or five years away but we can say they are not destined to arrive real soon. For now, the Fed will remain at zero and forward rates will continue their role as anchorage of the entire yield curve. For the present time our duration shift in portfolios will be gradual.
One duration target change is working its way into the strategy and portfolios. We believe it is the beginning of the time period to start moving from long to neutral. It is way too soon to get fully defensive in fear of abruptly rising rates. It still pays to select certain spread product over Treasury bonds. And in some cases it makes sense to hedge bond portfolios to dampen the volatility.
We will make changes in this strategy in response to any event-driven input or when our preferred models suggest it is time to do so. For now we expect the short-term rate to remain near zero for a while longer and the 10-year Treasury yield to be limited by the upper bounds we discussed earlier in this Commentary. "
(Kotok OK's reprints with credit to firm, his archive to past articles below)
*********
Copyright 2009, Cumberland Advisors. All rights reserved.
The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors http://www.cumber.com/comments/archiveindex.htm

Baz - Whenever anyone asks me what I do or look at to do, I always respond, "In what timeframe do want to know?" I do this because most day traders really aren't interested in what I do because I am NOT a day trader any longer.

Perhaps, though, if you are just curious what I would have looked at when I was day trading, I have attached a monthly chart for XOM. That's right - a monthly chart contains and guides all lesser term charts. Another way of saying this is that the short term ups and downs conform to the longer term trend until the trend turns.

Because I am a swing trader, I like to use a longer term (30moEma)MovAve to register the trend direction and a shorter term (10moSma)MovAve to register swing alerts; that is, if the LT ma is up and price drops below the ST ma, I look on the weekly, daily, etc, for Buy action sigs and vice versa for down trends.

Currently, my interpretation of the monthly XOM chart is that the trend is still downward with the swing ma indicating a possible Sell coming up. The panel for XOM:$SPX still shows XOM underperforming that Index. BUT, the RSI(7) and OBV(10) indicators show that a possible turning point might be coming.

At this point in time, I would probably switch to a Donchian approach by waiting until I get a 4month higher high on the monthly price chart and then go with shorter term signals in the direction of that trend change.

Hope this helps, and NO I did not tell you how to trade next week, but if you take what I said and incorporate it into your personal trading style and system, you might have more confidence in your decisions. Good luck!
spot

I'm surprised that there haven't been any comments on this -it can be replayed by going to the c-span website. Although his testimony had to do with the AIG bonuses before the house oversight committee it had a lot to do with TARP in general. Several points of interest. 1)A republican congressman asserted that Tim Geitner was at best incompetent and Inspector Barofsky agreed. 2)A democrat railed against Chris Dodd role in adding language to the TARP2 bill that prevented negotiation of the AIG bonuses and it was done after Congress has last seen the bill. Kind of like inserted in the dead of night. Where have we seen this before? Now it is becoming SOP. It's a long video, 2hrs+, but all concerned might want to watch.
http://www.c-span.org/Watch/Media/2009/10/14/HP/A/...

T3d- That's great advice. After all, before medical science came up with vaccines and antivirals, that's all we had to work with. And if/when vaccines and antivirals stop working, common sense will keep working.

I previously had the feeling that Courvoisier XO (which one can get basically for FREE at Costco in a nice 0.375ml bottle when buying a combo with Courvoisier VSOP 0.75ml bottle, all for $29.99) is not it, and last night I think I finally understood why I felt that way.

(a) I have yet to develop a taste for 'dessert' brandy. Probably for the same reason I usually pass on desserts.

(b) You might want to double-check your metric measurements. If you're paying $29.99 for 0.75ml of anything alcoholic, it had better be perfume.

(c) I found the 18-year-old Glenfiddich at Costco today, for the price you quoted earlier. My better half gave me a 'I don't believe this' look and let's just say it didn't survive the trip to the check-out stand.

David- Here's a new townhouse complex that might be an alternative to a home in Campbell:

http://tinyurl.com/yjyf299

Since this site is all about sharing real-time information and presenting all viewpoints, here's a counterweight to the recent posts about scotch, vodka, sake, and cognac:

http://tinyurl.com/ylzpqbz

Everything in moderation, as they say.

found- I trust the wedding and honeymoon went as planned, and you are now happily married. Haven't heard from you since August. Glad to have you back.

http://api.ning.com/files/aY-XM7VhD6TOEg1dadf2K01V...

This is a fantastic deal for a room at Fairmont Orchid Hawaii, but you have to act very fast and like tennis (not really). Take a look if you can act fast and are interested.

I think so.

Certainly no stretch to think SPX opens around 1100.

> (b) You might want to double-check your metric measurements. If you're paying $29.99 for 0.75ml of anything alcoholic, it had better be perfume.

Sorry, I wasn't thinking clearly. I meant to write "L" instead of "ml"

> (c) I found the 18-year-old Glenfiddich at Costco today, for the price you quoted earlier. My better half gave me a 'I don't believe this' look and let's just say it didn't survive the trip to the check-out stand.

She didn't believe it was "real"? Well, I can tell you that it is definitely better (smoother, richer) than the 12-year-old Glenfiddich I purchased once at Beverages&More.

Thank you for keeping my housing search in mind, 2nd_ave! When there will be no more threat to real estate prices (in the form of a shadow inventory of foreclosed but not yet sold homes and new inevitable foreclosures resulting from the second wave of mortgage resets over the next two years), I will definitely consider Palo Alto townhouses and compare them carefully to Campbell houses.

Notice an interesting fact about market futures (per http://finance.yahoo.com/indices?e=futures): the Dow futures right now are down 24 points to 9900, even though Dow closed at 9996 on Friday! Does this mean that at the Friday's close, the futures traders have already realized that the market is ahead of itself and the index futures closed below the spot prices? This should have been a "tell" for us simple mortals...

Like a relationship, Bill.... once the trust is broken, things will never again be the same... I hear the sadness you feel for a broken system... Greed was, to me anyway, the worst of all the 7 deadly sins. I've always believed greed was a way to mask fear...

Has anyone considered aggregating the daily number of buy and sell alerts on the SPX vs a price chart of the SPX itself and seeing how predictive they are? I have this sense they might show us something interesting - specifically on a mass transition from distribution zone to sell alert.

If someone can get me the total number of daily buy/sell alerts as well as the daily accumulation/distribution zones from the past few years, I can come up with something.

I see that $USD broke down through the 75.6 level, which served as a support throughout the whole of Friday, and gold is at $1056/oz now. If gold closes above $1060 on Monday, then it will make a clear double bottom at $1050 based on NY closing prices. Last week I purchased DGP at $25.49 and then added at $24.92. Instead of placing a sell limit order at $25.49 for the second bunch of shares, I decided to move it up to $25.92 for a nice round profit figure, since a double bottom at $1050 should be able to propel gold to $1100 and so there is no need to take profits too soon.

On the other hand, if gold opens up tomorrow but decides to drop below $1050 by the end of the day, then my FAZ order will most likely get triggered and will compensate to a large extent my loss on the DGP position.

david, what symbol do you lookup in google finance for the $USD ? thx !

Here are a couple of graphs of $GOLD that may surprise you. They use Hurst envelopes based on centered moving averages. Thanks to aid from Quasi on how to get Stockcharts to do this--an as yet undocumented feature!

By using centered moving averages, you can get a better idea of the cyclical behavior of the price series as the shorter term cycle oscillates inside the longer term cycle. Note the correspondence with RSI and MACD extremes as well.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&st=2004-01-01&id=p95420639354&a=181114339

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2007-08-01&id=p51428506892&a=181113433

ALOHA !!

You guys know I dislike both parties as their agendas are one and those agendas have nothing to do with Freedom & Liberty and the principles of the US Constitution and the Declaration Of Independence.

I first realized OBAMA was in the pocket of Wall Street and he would be "business as usual" when he appointed this person to be his "National Finance Chair" during his campaign.

Go to this link and read about her "career highlights", especially the ones surrounding Superior Bank. I posted this here way before the election.

LINK: http://tinyurl.com/yudx9e

I am not OBAMA and I do not have his ivy league credentials and I can barely spell OPRAH(is the H silent), but even me, a small farmer in the jungles of Hawaii, can tell a "trust fund baby" from a real entrepreneur. Even I can read about Superior Bank and discern that the persons managing that bank were Chicago crooks, so why would OBAMA with all his highly tuned academic and political skills ever come near someone like her, much less appoint her to be his National Finance Chair? Is there such a shortage of honest CEOs and academics in America that all OBAMA has to choose from is privileged losers?

I still disagree with everyone here, including Bill, as I believe what we are seeing now is a "monetary crisis" and its long term, not temporary. In fact its already been 96 years in the making, but in fact this monetary crisis was jump started in 1971 when Nixon defaulted.

What we are seeing now where Wall Street and the US government commingle openly and without opposition from any elected rep is a signal to me for a monetary crisis, where the best position for survival will be at the source of the money spigot. Why else would "trading" be so popular and why else would GS be so corrupt? When this level of collusion and intervention occurs it is no signal that free markets and honest money will prevail. In fact it is a natural progression of corrupt money. Assets with the least counterparty liabilities then become the key to survival. We saw what mismanaging liabilities did to Lehmans and Bear Steans, two of the oldest investment houses in America. Its not over and GS knows it ... GS is acting accordingly. To me it is practically scripted.

IT IS WHAT IT IS ...

Absolutely Kaimu :)