Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thurs., Apr. 30, 2009

Thanks Bill. It's great to read your stuff, but I can go without those squiggly charts for one weekend.

Tragic events like your friend's remind me that life is about enjoying it while I can...

Good morning.

Downgrades:

COST - to Neutral @ UBS
VIP - to Neutral @ UBS

New Coverage:

BHP - RBC Initiates Coverage with an Outperform

Price Target Raised:

FSLR - from $100 to $110 @ FBR Capital Markets. Market Perform

Seabridge had a nice move yesterday +5.09% I have been watching this one as the tell to get back in as it seem to lead the way the last 5 months. nem, abx, gg, kgc charts all look like in the dead zone , waiting for the chart to talk to me, so far it's speaking a foreign language..to me.

For those looking for an oil play/oil sands Canadian watch the action in pbg-tc the chart is tightening up with higher lows, 25-26 is good resistance area, if oil catches a move this one participates

...

The Motley Fool is writing $25 covered calls in CCJ for September, on a stock pruchased in February. Note quarterly results may keep CCJ in check:

"There are a handful of reasons we might see Cameco's stock continue to climb above $25. So far, it's shown considerable strength on the hope that uranium prices have bottomed. What's more, with investor concerns over inflation shifting hither and thither, Cameco's uranium and gold exposure make it an enviable inflation hedge. And while we believe that quarterly earnings results (announced May 1) could keep the stock in check — earnings are due to be flat this year — any optimism in the report could send shares even higher"

Vinod- My opinion is still that sidelined cash is being sucked in. Since today is end-of-month, I'll wait for Friday to start any shorts. My knowledge of the markets is probably also in the 0-2% range- it's a lifelong adventure, and learning never ceases.

Another approach to the inflation/deflation argument. Well worth reading.

"... the two most prominent causes for future inflation held by inflationists are an expanding Fed balance sheet and swooning fiscal deficits. Two of the most prominently held deflation arguments are spare capacity in terms of manufacturing and in labor. Today’s article does not rehash the two inflationary arguments but instead presents two new inflationary concerns indirectly by addressing the two deflationary arguments. For the context of this article, inflation and deflation are defined by price levels and not money supply levels."

http://tinyurl.com/1w56

LOL. Good one, Grym. There's probably some kind of cosmic significance to that.

TN- Well, it won't be the bus ;)

I'm following the usual suspects for entry points- SRS/FAZ/TZA. I don't think it matters, as long as you're watching your own suspects on a daily basis and have a feel for their daily rhythms. (The worst thing you can do is pick one you're not familiar with.)

i feel like the anti-kaimu, which i dont relish, but i cant fight the feeling.

Newmont profit slashed....

copper costs killing them.
costs increasing.

i never heard a word about copper prices hurting them last year, no it was oil back then...

yes yes once copper prices increase im sure the large-cap miners will do better right? once china starts buying all that copper they will do better....
then what excuses will they use if and when copper prices increase?
hedging.... always, hedging is the miner's final ace in the hole to explain away losses amidst a bull market in the very product they mine. bad hedge books for gold were supposed to be liquidated over the past few years, soon im sure we will hear of hedge books for copper...

im waiting for reports that swine flu is affecting mine production costs too.

if anythiing i think the mid-cap producers really have a chance to excel, free of much of the nonesense that is a large cap project they can make some jr. aquisitions at some point and move forward with some positive news as opposed to the eternal lament of losses, bad hedging and non-gold problems faced by the big boys.

barrick is the same price it was 3 years ago. back then gold was in the $550-$600 range. imagine where it will be if we pull back to $800 gold? bullion and mid-caps seem like the way to go forward if and when the current downtrend plays out... if and when....

cue Peter Munk making bullish statements about why gold will go to $1000 soon, or CEO of some Precious Metals fund talking up china purchases as being bullish going forward.

remember: everything we thought was bullish for gold has turned out to be the opposite in many respects unless you are a more nimble trader. calls for gold above $1000 are looking less and less likely with the downtrend forming in the metal, the worsening earnings picture for the miners, and the resilience of the USD going forward. yes bonds are breaking down, but so is gold. baseless manipulation calls aside, can someone tell me why they think bond cracking will make gold go up when so far its the opposite?

looking to reload much lower from here if it comes. if we shoot up above $920 then ill climb on for the ride. though that is looking like crazy talk more and more. if the action on the miners is lower, with gaps down on large volume and no jump back the following day, we will know there are serious long term problems with large cap golds. if the big banks are crooked and can fall apart, why can a big mine?

steady as she goes...

Just entered a buy order SQNM.

Scottrade has this paternalistic streak, requesting that you call the office to place buy orders on stocks which have major issues. I don't have to tell you guys, it's a problem. They did the same thing to me about a year ago on Vista Gold. They ruined my whole day.

Or thinly traded super stable preferreds.... They charge you $20 for their supposed paternalism.

AET - estimates reduced at UBS through 2010. Company seeing strong momentum, but loss rates remain high. Buy rating and $37 price target.

FSLR - numbers raised at Merrill/BofA to $200. Estimates also increased through 2010, as the company far exceeded first quarter expectations. Buy rating.

SBUX - target higher at Goldman, to $13 from $12 following inline Q2 results. Note some improvement in margins but uncertainty in new initiatives such as instant coffee. Maintained Neutral rating.

SBUX - estimates, target increased at Barclays. Shares now seen reaching $11. Estimates raised because of cost savings and stabilizing comp sales. Equal-weight rating.

TGT - numbers increased at UBS to $42. Estimates also boosted, to reflect more stable sales. Neutral rating.

...

edit: voila back online

Predicting a higher close to finish the month today...........Say hello to my little friend
LOL

Your my Trading GURU Craig, SBUX has already broken 15.20.

We'll see how this goes.

I know, but somebody else already called the $11 target that happened March 16th. Man they're good....

Are they eeking 4 points out of Mr. softy on another iphone story?

Will it be as good as Zune? Why wouldn't VZ go to RIMM and get it right?

Thanks for the link — looks interesting.

thinking of you Grym when I posted it.

Labour deflation vs. import inflation.

LOL

You are really Jay Leno — Right?

I bought more on this dip this morning. They beat on earnings and reiterated their own guidance.

Also, they are seeing improved pricing and a flight to quality from premium holders. "Our position in the marketplace remains strong and we continue to gain momentum. The benefits from our ongoing investments in technology platforms and product enhancements, as well as the flight to quality that is occurring in our industry, can be seen in our high retention rates and increased business submission flows. Adding to our franchise has been an improving rate trend across each of our business segments which has more than offset the impact of declining coverage needs resulting from general economic conditions. "

Book value is now over $45/share and they are trading at $40, a historical low price to BV.

They should be able to pick up some good assets on the cheap with most of their competitors hurting right now. Additionally, their yield is almost 3% now. I would recommend this as a good long term hold...one of the few out there.

FD: I own TRV.

CP - I have come to the conclusion we may be seeing deflation and inflation at the same time. No wonder it's confusing!

WOW!

KKD was my first effort at day trading. Had only heard of them through a donut loving friend who traveled their neighborhood. Bought 50 shares of the IPO and traded them for about a year — biggest single stock for me in so short a time ever. Several splits along the way.

My last was a stop at 41.75, then they nose dived with all kinds of legal problems and CEO induced internal conflicts.

Their promotion skills rivaled Obama. Set up a donut line on Wall St.

No conflict/no rationalization. It's the cost of doing business. You made a good trade, IMO.

waiting is the worst part...

CP,

My feeling is that in the near term ( 1 to 3 years ) the tell for U stocks will be the price of oil and world energy demand. My underlying belief is that oil will rise to at least the $60 - $80 per barrel range in the next 6 months and this will be a negative for U stocks. Let's face it, the run-up of U3O8 to well over $100 a pound was due to game-playing by hedge and sovereign funds and the financial quagmire we are in is corrective to the U3O8 price accordingly. I just had my order to sell 2200 DML filled @ 2.40 so my round trip is over for the present. Bill has taught me that a 20% net return in 9 months should be banked, particularly in a tough market where all of it came this week. I'll never make money day-trading.

"Dr,Cosa - Aren't prices rising? I always believed rising prices were an indication of inflation... Hmm, what is it I'm not comprehending here.." ,

some are some arent.

earnings are falling for most large cap miners,
but costs are rising.

its win win for the shorts.

I remember that Lehman Bros. continues to sit on a stockpile of yellowcake that they were trading prior to chapter 11. They're not interested in selling at present prices.

Ducks -

If you have a better trade for the cash with a 35% gain, do that, but, if not, next time set a tight limit order and wait for direction. Either way, you stay invested. Nice gain though. Be happy.

Cheers.

Europe is flat, a little selling into the close and the U.S. mkt so far looks similar to the FTSE 100 and may go flat here as well. I wish I had bought the TNA I was considering this morning. But not ready to roll the dice on anything right now. Got work to do, will be back before the close.

Decided to throw (50) 1 oz maple leafs in the treasure chest again this morning on the big dip. With the gold/silver ratio still very high and conditions in the base metals still not very conducive to encouraging new silver by-product mining, I am very comfortable with slowly accumulating physical silver as a long-term hold. Apmex has 1 oz. Maple Leafs "on sale" @ $2.49 over spot until the end of the week. I also noticed Apmex recently dropped the premium on 100 oz. JM bars from $1.19 over spot to $0.99 over spot recently.

These coins are amazing aren't they?

ESLR IS beginning to happen, too little, too close to lunch. Hopefully it is still in play for the afternoon.

What did they do, become 4 horsemen of the apocolypse?

Seamus: Noticing the price action and volume over the last week or so....are you staying long?

We usually only get this before div dates!

Craig, I use this for its dividend payment in lieu of stashing cash in a low yielding AMT free muni money market. For me, it’s like a fixed income play in the agriculture, energy area. So, no, not selling unless the facts or personal situation changes. (Everyone here has their own different individual situation)

May look to sell very small portion at a slightly higher price for other managed accounts that now have a higher individual holding percentage in their portfolios than their plan.

Otherwise, as you know Craig, CHSCP trades between approximately 24.50 and 26.50 the last three years or so. If you can lower your cost basis by selling some over 26, then repurchasing (you have to be very, very patient and may forgo dividend payments) at @ 25.25 or below, great.

“We usually only get this before div dates!” Yes. Don’t know the reason why and any thoughts would be pure speculation.

They always say, "don't discount the strength of the consumers!"

I just don't get it, losing half a million jobs+ every month, foreclosures, bankruptcies, you name it, and the consumer still can't be kept down. Do they just drink the koolaid and graze on the 'green shoots'?

I just can't believe we come out of this recession with a more significant retrenchment of the consumer, of course fundamentals and belief are two great enemies of success in the markets...

CHSCP: Seamus, your thinking is like mine. Just wondering if you had shifted any with the volume.

There has to be a pretty good reason to chance the div taxed at 15% in exchange for a cap gain. 26.20 was tempting....maybe a portion...

Traded it last time it cleared 26+ but prefer to sit and collect my div.

PS: technically it is above the 50 and 200 DMA and looks like it is trying to break out on that volume the 29th.

It must be the announcement about Chrysler's bankruptcy proceeding. This could be longer and more painful than many believe...

I once had a dog named Chrysler.... and no, she wasn't a car. My Ford is named Beauford, a concatenation of Beautiful and Ford.

Check out the chart of National Oilwell Varco, one of my favorite oil stocks. At about 1120, it just tipped over and sank like a paralyzed falcon. NOV.

Many other oil patch stocks did the same thing, although few with quite that enthusiasm.

Craig
Actually, one of those rare situations where I've made way more on the dividend than on a capital gain, but I guess you could say that for most if not all preferreds.

The difference is, it's not like a telphone company pfd or God forbid a financial pfd! You'd be way underwater. It's held up well over the last year's turmoil.

(Not advice to others, please DOYDD. Every individual's situation, goals are different. Keep in mind this can be very illiquid; thus, difficult to sell).

"The government will also help appoint a new board of directors."

Full-employment act for more former Goldman execs...

Dave

Les,

As stated, every individual's situation, goals are different. Keep in mind this can be very illiquid; thus, difficult to sell. Thus, it is NOT like a money market. It is also NOT a trading type stock, but like fixed income. Certainly not for all.

You don't want a situation where you need the money and have to sell at bargain basement prices, thus eroding all your dividend gain.

Company is like a Farmer's Copperative in some ways and that's why it sometimes sells off when farmers need the money.

Not a recommendation, please DOYDD.

:)

lol concern yourself not Seamus. I do not want to buy it.

But I did like the concept of it paying better then a bank.

So, from your answer then material adverse conditions could change its dividend policy in the present economic conditions.

duly noted, thanks.

edit: wanted to file it in my "agro" watchlist, but Google finance doesn't recognise it??

When Seamus initially brought up CHSCP I ran a yearly chart, which was more or less flat. I wanted to see what it looked like over extended periods and it ran, as he says, from approx. 24.50 or so to 26.50 over five years. It pays $2.00 annually, $0.50 per quarter. I own it as does most of my family.
My experience so far has been rock solid. I've held it for a couple years now through hell and high water and I've never been down more than the initial dividend payment, but usually up substantially when the market is down hard.
I would say it is well defended by the owners which is easier when the float is limited and the volume usually thin. Sometimes I buy a few shares after the div when it's low and then wait and sell a few of my LT cap gains over 26, but it does put me over my allocation for a quarter. It's the turtle in the turtle and hare race. It isn't a traders type of holding, unless your trading horizon is at least a quarter. I do better sitting doing nothing and collecting the div.

Please do your own DD.

a boring day. I couldn't find trades. Until afterward:)

Dave,

actually, guess where spin started... I heard it myself from the President: "This bankruptcy is a sign of strength, not weakness"

taking it off...I think the market could slide soon. The intraday slide to me was pretty significant...then again, my timing has been off.

Below are some quotes from Econoday (http://fidweek.econoday.com/) about the consumer spending. First, from yesterday's GDP report:

"The bottom line is that the worse-than-expected decline was due to inventory adjustments. The consumer is doing better than expected. This is good news. If the consumer is holding up, the economy will not fall off a cliff. The report should be favorable to equities and also firm interest rates due to better-than-expected consumption."

Then, from today's Personal Income and Outlays:

"Personal income in March fell further as consumer spending retreated from recent gains. Yesterday's GDP report apparently gave a misleading picture of relatively healthy consumer spending. Meanwhile PCE inflation came in mixed. Personal income fell 0.3 percent, following a 0.2 percent dip in February. The March decrease was worse than the market forecast for a 0.2 percent decline. Within personal income, the wages and salaries component fell a sharp 0.5 percent, after dropping 0.4 percent in February. Consumer spending turned negative again with a 0.2 percent decrease after gaining 0.4 percent in February. March spending was below than the market projection for no change.

The March personal income report is more pessimistic about the consumer sector than yesterday's first quarter GDP report in which spending was up for the quarter. Now, the more current personal income report shows consumers having less income to work with and a pullback in outlays at the end of the quarter. This indicates possible erosion of the consumer sector in second quarter GDP.

Today's report should be negative for equities and should ease bond yields. Another record high for continuing jobless claims should have the same impact."

The market didn't seem to pay much attention to today's report, as it is holding onto yesterday's gains and is even adding to them. But this will change abruptly at some point, which will be the point when we will be ready to throw our common sense out of the window and join this rally, which seems to keep going up regardless of the circumstances. :)

...

Yesterday, I covered the ERX puts (which lost about 75% of their value since I sold them 3 weeks ago) and freed up some cash, mentioning that flexibility was more important for me than trying to extract the remaining small absolute gain from those puts. Today, I have identified a new candidate for put selling, and I just sold 5 contracts of June $30 puts on GG at $3.60 each.

If those puts are assigned to me, I'll have an effective purchase price of $26.40. GG was below that price for only a few days in 2009, so IMO this would be a "bargain price" for GG.

If these puts expire, then the absolute gain ($1800) will be 3 times larger than the $600 trading gain I would hope for with the $15K size of a trading position. So instead of "working" and trying to make 3 good trades with these $15K in 1.7 months, I figured I can relax, sit back, and let the time decay do the trading for me. :)

"UAW pull your head out ... The World is not business as usual and you cannot retire on FAT PENSIONS on the backs of US TAXPAYERS into infinity."

Incorrect - as long as Obama is King, and the Democrats rule Court (e.g., the King's Court) - it "IS" business as usual for the "blessed" UAW.

The UAW can, and will retire on my back as well as yours!

SAD!!!!

ALOHA!!

This Morgan Stanley CEO, John Mack, is so out of touch with the real World ... He is yet another reason why US TAXPAYERS have no business saving HB&B. If they are so talented then let them survive on their own without any BAILOUTS.

As a member bank of the US FED, I am sure Morgan Stanley IS working closely with the FED!! What a redundant statement that is ...

READ ON:
John Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chief executive, said the biggest issue facing Wall Street during the next two years will be compensation. Mack said the taxpayers’ desire to rein in pay is at odds with the long-standing bonus model employed in the industry and Mack’s firm.

Mack called the tension between the interests “a balancing act” and said that the firm had seen “an exodus of key people,” a statement he later downplayed saying the firm had lost just a few but hired away others. He also defended Morgan Stanley’s pay structure in the current environment by pointing out that compensation costs were 50% lower in 2008. The average bonus at the firm was $143,000.

One way Morgan Stanley may be trying to deal with the compensation issue is by spinning off parts of the firm that traditionally have higher bonus pay. Last week, the WSJ reported Morgan Stanley is considering spinning off Process-Driven Trading, a quantitative investment group that is essentially a hedge fund.

But spinning off that unit could have consequences beyond evading pay limits.

Mack says he’s sensitive to regulators and taxpayer concerns. He said the firm is working closely with the Federal Reserve as it considers changes. The brokerage also is conscious of public sentiment against bonuses. “We understand the American people are upset because they’ve lost their jobs.”END

Average bonuses of $143,000USD ... so that includes all employees who do not perform. Hummmmm???

SPIN OFF to escape BAILOUT regulations. What a shock these guys are playing fast and loose with the "new" rules!

So he thinks the US TAXPAYERS are upset because we "lost our jobs". Right-t-t!! Please-e-e ... Get a KLUE John!

Les,

Some interesting ideas, but not anything which sways me from the Hoisington view.

Since I live in an area which was primarily industrial and had a high manufacturing employment, the hundreds of thousands of square feet formerly devoted to the products we made is a stark reminder of the shift to a service economy. Our unemployment is now exceeding 14% officially and as he points out is much higher with a lot of underemployment.

Wage deflation is the factor we have been dealing with as taxes, charitable contributions, housing sales and decrease. Unused retail space and abandoned homes are beginning down the path to the ghost town look of our broken and empty factories.

Puplava's argument has a major assumption which, in my view, is critical: "If we continue shipping our manufacturing base overseas." I can't see much more of this being tolerated — Congress is now talking of the "protectionism" they scoffed at as our jobs were peddled.

In the end the only people who truly benefited big time from globalization here were the CEOs whose stock options were fattened by exporting workers' jobs.

I do believe he is correct about the USD being key to the intensity of inflation. Commodities, if emerging market countries continue to increase their manufacturing, will become expensive. This would be costly to the US. I only hope we don't repeat the history and resort to war to acquire what is needed. Japan, Nazi Germany did it. The Soviet Union acquired "satellites" to fill their needs. I can easily see the Iraq invasion tied to our overly dependent oil appetite.

All of his China speculation is beyond me. I don't believe our own government data — why would I base any investment decisions on data from China? It is widely known the US tech companies have cooperated in China's monitoring of the internet. Our own news media is ready, willing and able to parrot government and other "information" — should I believe China's news is gospel?

The question is rather — Can China become a closed and self-sustaining economy somewhat like the USA was following WWII?

A question here is — Will the US consumer continue to buy poisoned food imports, children's toys with lead, put up with bad pet food, counterfeit drugs and other goods?

I think not. I just paid 5 times as much for a high quality, US made screen door for our back porch as I did last fall for a China made, spliced wood piece of crap which fell apart after one winter.

I can tell you that any continued "import inflation" will only increase the likelihood of a return to Made in U.S.A. and, although at lower levels than the post WWll era industrial boom time, pay a heck of a lot better than the low level wages-without-benefits of the "New Service Economy" (which was only supposed to take our low-end jobs).

I find his comparison of Treasuries performance (1980 to 2001) and gold's performance a bit vague.

I see both gold and Treasuries as fear related holdings and will continue to acquire or trade both probably for as long as I live.

back in at 25.11

I'll take today's 4.6%. Still holding 40% of allocation.

Kaimu -

Ford has the best selling pickup and Chrysler has the best selling minivan. Opel (GM Europe) is a money maker. Ford has a super efficient sub 2.0L twin turbo diesel that goes into very popular luxury compacts throughout Europe and the UK. So its not the product per se that's bad. The guys who engineer these products never get credit for a job well done because of crap legacy built in the 70s and 80s, the UAW strong arm, CEO greed, state dealership franchise laws, CAFE double standard, and GOV'T that get the MSM attention.

UAW Chapter 7 would be equivalent to abolishing the Fed. LOL/ Instead what appears to be happening is taxpayers will fund a UAW majority shareholder stake in GM and Chrysler to guarantee that voting bloc in the next election. I'm sure Chrysler bankruptcy judge will be hand picked by Team Obama.

Remember Leyland? Or remember when UAL employees took a 55% stake in 1994 and gained control of the corporate board? The airline union then promptly negotiated with itself as the controlling interest of the largest airline and ran wages up throughout the airline industry until all the U.S. airlines were more or less insolvent. Deja vu all over again ...

Hope you're feeling better.

Goldcorp kinda fell apart at end of day trading today. Maybe it didn't like gold's end of day fade.

In other news, the S&P futures immediately started tanking after market close. They're now down -3.50. Of course futures were up pretty significantly at the start of today, and we all know how that turned out.

Kaimu: "As I said, without US GOVERNMENT fleet purchases where would those numbers be?"

So soon we get Gettelfinger Motor Company (UAW boss) selling inventory to US Govt for twice the price. UAW is the poor man's GS club.

As for Japanese car resale, a burgeoning underclass will consume used economy cars when they can no longer obtain a three-year luxury land yacht lease and inflated oil.

I once drove a Honda Civic into the infield of a NASCAR Winston Cup race. The car got a free beer bath ... it's all stupid until it's not. Ha!

"Remember ... no revenues means "printy printy"!! More DEBT PLEASE!"

I thought "printy printy" + "spendy spendy" was a form of taxation causing the dollar to fall in value, thereby diluting FRN shareholder equity?

"I doubt $3.6TRIL is enough ..."

I agree! They are finding all kind of back-door ways to spend. Unfortunately for them, FRN shareholders are starting to take notice...

DISHONESTY begets DISHONESTY, or so my mother taught me when I was a child.

RE:>There is far too much excess baggage holding back the US train, and until Banksters go to jail and confidence in American-style capitalism is restored HB&B will be doing more and more business elsewhere.

That wasn't me writing that Terry - it was addressed to me - but in response to both of you I'd suggest that a probable outcome will indeed be greater protectionism (brought about by popular demand) under one form or another. Hopefully nothing overboard but enough to resuscitate US manufacturing.

Agreed with you on the quality issue Grym. I have a tendency to buy better manufactured goods as opposed to cheap - and they're subsequently often not Chinese. Yet not convinced that the majority think and consume like us.

Well, happy to get back into the flow of trading these last two days. Stopped pressing bad bets in a hasty attempt to get on the bus. Heck I even missed the huge drop today - went and had a drink with the neighbour and caught the second wave briefly at 1pm (that be 1pm your time - don't think ill of me ;).

This is good. Feeling better now. Happy to look at what others are doing. Listen. Watch. Waiting for the turn.

Hopefully it comes not before Monday. These wussy lower volume x2 ETF's in Canada don't give as much bang for yer buck.

Will be sorely tempted to short come close tomorrow. We shall see.

night all.

My Apologies, Les !

David, I donno your put selling intention is to buy the stock (fundamentally you are interested in the stock at that price and use put selling as a strategy to buy it?) or just capture time decay. If your intention is to capture time decay, you might want to look at spreads, just buying a way OTM put could provide insurance on a crazy day.

HR109 is Ron Paul's House of Rep. bill to audit the federal reserve.
The most recent cosponsors are:
Rep Wilson, Charles A. [OH-6] - 4/29/2009
Rep Hall, Ralph M. [TX-4] - 4/29/2009
Rep Kline, John [MN-2] - 4/29/2009
Rep Bono Mack, Mary [CA-45] - 4/29/2009
Rep Murphy, Tim [PA-18] - 4/29/2009
Rep Calvert, Ken [CA-44] - 4/29/2009
Rep McDermott, Jim [WA-7] - 4/29/2009
Rep Upton, Fred [MI-6] - 4/29/2009
Rep Bachus, Spencer [AL-6] - 4/29/2009
Full list here: http://tinyurl.com/d362pm

For those tired of hearing about this, apologies for bringing this issue up again.

LA times puts out a very responsible article on this virus which captures the microbiologists' current perspective of this outbreak.... and my own. This is a great article for putting things into appropriate perspective for they lay person. I am so sick of the fear-mongering. If you are currently frightened, please read.

http://tinyurl.com/dhemw5

Again, I'll let you know if and when the data and my opinion substantially changes. Peace.

Well, at least we can say the four horsemen wound up out front today.

A correction: I was looking at the total cash in my OptionsHouse account when computing the 40% return over 2.5 months. That was a mistake, since my *account value* is smaller than that because of the short put positions I currently have. If all of these puts expire by June, THEN I'll be up 40% in 4 months, which is much more reasonable since I was on average selling puts that would give me a premium of 10% per month.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/04/out-of-balance....

Swiss law would be violated if records of third party turned over. Diplomats please, not lawyers.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124113248903475063...

JRCC Reports earnings tomorrow, should be good I would think...
DAL - There seem to be signs of life at Delta the past few days...

Swine Flu Martial Law Bill Gets Approval From Massachusetts Senate
The bill gives the Governor the power to authorize the deployment and use of force to distribute supplies and materials and local authorities will be allowed to enter private residences for investigation and to quarantine individuals.
http://tinyurl.com/dxbxkf

thx to zerohedge

Shiva- It didn't work.

reposting

HK - Failed support today, $23.95 was the failed benchmark.

they are both on a tear. I hv it my list to short when the market flips over.....

Shiva,

Take a look at CE for a short. It's up 135% since I bought it for my 7 year old in early January. Seems it could easily give back 30% the way it trades.

CE - Support was proven 1/9 @ $13.25 and then again 4/24 @ $17.24.

Today the system generated a daily trade warning and will set a benchmark based on tomorrow's opening price. If tomorrow's opening price gaps down, the benchmark will be the opening price. If the market gaps up or even, the benchmark will be today's closing price. I see CE didn't change price after hours today, so that's a good sign...

Most of these equity trading patterns have a two year historical record, I'm not sure how much of this record is used in making current trading decisions, but the system rates performance based upon the number of successful trades over the historical record. Trying to buy and sell at the system sets as benchmark prices can be tricky, so mileage does vary...

ALOHA !!

Ron ... thanks for the plethora of charts. Something is indeed wrong with the Treasury market. The usual bond traders used to sell Treauries repos and equities are seizing up so the DTCC has offloaded some of the $1.3Tril in unsettled trades to the NSS-National Settlement Service, which is owned by the US Federal Reserve. Today I read through Circular #12, which is the agreement "settlers" have to sign in order to have the NSS settle trades on their behalf, sort of a FEMA for the DTCC, which has had settlement issues for years now. It is very clear that the NSS takes no responsibility and indemnifies itself from any lawsuits that result from failures. Just by the CYA legal language you get a sense that they know where all this is heading. This is the type of scenario that could cause Prof Fekete's hyperinflation of electronic debt(MOUSE MONEY). You rightly point out that the US FED is taking on huge quantities of toxic assets and expanding its Balance Sheet beyond what has been the historic norm, beyond what is safe in my opinion, all in order to save member banks and that is one red flag, but "settlement" is a whole new ball game and this is the basis for the C WORD. The unsettled trades in repos hit its highest level during the LEH bankruptcy over $2tril worth.

There is a new rule coming into effect on May 1st that would impose hefty fees on unsettled trades. I am not yet sure of the details but this is one huge jigsaw puzzle that could threaten the C WORD-CONFIDENCE. If Treasuries are perceived as too risky then America's DEBT PARTY is over.

I am just now trying to get a glimpse of the BIG PICTURE here, so bare with me.

All my years of watching the POG I can be assured that when the POG goes down in some dramatic and rapid fashion then that signifies some upcoming catastrophic event as the US FED does not want to lose its image of a "safe harbor" and will do all it can to make GOLD look undesirable. Its major INTERVENTION at its finest! Its all about paper money vs real money ... FALSE WEALTH vs REAL WEALTH! Nothing more ...

I was just watching an old episode from HAWAII 5-0, entitled MURDER WITH A GOLDEN TOUCH. In the episode Chin Ho goes to the Chinese community to get their advice on who is secretly buying gold. Back then, when the episode was filmed, it was not legal to own gold if you were not licensed. Dr. Cosa would have loved the group of elderly Chinese business leaders talking about their long history of buying GOLD and the molds they use to make bars! HA!!

History is just that ... NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN!

wow, the results are so good they are delayed due to partying.

http://tinyurl.com/d5lhye

Damn unions! They wreck everything good in life! They should be abolished and we should let mgmt make all the decisions regarding fair compensation!
I'm sure they'll look out for the little hard working guy. I mean, what could go wrong when upper mgmt makes 450+ times what the worker makes?

The automaker executive teams and the UAW share responsibility for the state the industry is in today. One wonders now that the balance of power has passed to the UAW, if the outcome is likely to improve. Can we observe any other cases in the past where unions have gained ownership over companies, and the companies have performed well over time?

While I don't do day trading or options, this blog has been very informative as to market info, stock info, and what is behind the headlines. Fascinating reading. I just wanted to say thanks to all those that contribute. There was an interesting comment by a bankruptcy attorney on Foreclosure Radar site blog. The link is below (I hope it comes out okay since it's the first time I've tried posting here.)

http://www.foreclosuretruth.com/blog/sean/solving-...

He mentioned the number of clients owing big money on credit cards used to finance businesses, and also said he was worried that there would be large numbers of people withdrawing money from IRAs and 401Ks when they ran out of money. I know some of the people on cara have mentioned an upcoming market drop, and this may be one of the contributing factors. I thought this was interesting.

http://tinyurl.com/d8m5e9

"Because it has been 52 calendar days since the March 9 market low, I was especially interested in where these four different sentiment measures stood 52 days into those prior bull markets.
Consider first the picture painted by the HSNSI. This sentiment index grew by an average of 29.3 percentage points during the first 52 calendar days of prior bull markets. Since March 9, in contrast, it has jumped by more than 45 percentage points -- about one-and-a-half times as much.
A similar story is being painted by the AAII data. The proportion of the organization's members who report that they are bullish (as a percentage of those who say they are either bullish or bearish) is 24 percentage points higher now than at the early March low. The average gain over the first 52 days of prior bull markets, in contrast, is just 9.8 percentage points -- or less than half as much.
To be sure, the other two sentiment measures I analyzed are telling a different story. Both the Investors Intelligence data and the VIX are suggesting that the increase in bullishness since March 9 is in line with the averages seen during the first 52 days of prior bull markets.
Still, it is worrisome that two out of four sentiment measures I analyzed are showing increases in bullish sentiment since the March 9 low that are markedly higher than the typical experience at the beginnings of prior bull markets.
The bottom line? It is difficult, but not impossible, to argue that we are in a new bull market. It is more likely that we're in a bear-market rally."

RE:>So on one hand, GDP data says "consumer spending up 2.2%" but state sales tax says "collections down 10%" Given a U6 of 15.6%, vehicle sales at absurdly low levels, which one do you believe?

aaah... I'll take the official stats for 200 thanks Dave! After all, that's the one massaging the charts...

gonna have another go with a small bearish options spread. But gonna give it a couple of months for this "massaged data" to work its way through the system and then hopefully investors will understand that there is nothing but a huge gaping maw of debt and mass unemployment engulfing them...

Just for anyone who may not know:

"birth-death models" does NOT refer to the ratio of babies to fatalities — as I first heard it alluded to on TV (probably way back when it was the Financial News Network — pre CNBC).

Sounded strange — we did have child labor laws, then — so I checked it out. It is a very questionable measure of expiring business and new ones. Just one more cool way to juggle job data to suit the government aims.

No need to lie when a simple obfuscation will do.

Yep, but let's not discuss compensation. Let's rather get bogged down with outrage about the fatcat line worker who is putting food on his table by taking money outta my backpocket.

http://tinyurl.com/cla9wj

Then where the hell where you on the executive compensation issue? Nowhere, that's where. You don't give a damn what the bigs get paid, until it affects your pocketbook. Then you blame the workers. Hypocrit.