Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thurs, Feb. 12, 2009

Ben Bernanke gets a free pass? The crisis was "contained", and he only missed it exponentially. One of Fed's mission statements is supervision of financial system and stability. I'd say that he should be among the league leaders..

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-...

His charts on oil are worth a view.

more like an aftershock than a temblor

From Colin Twiggs
"The rising gold price also warns that inflation expectations are rising. Bond yields are likely to follow in 6 to 12 months."
If this indeed happens, how does this play out in the housing market? Can the fed buy treasuries forever in an attempt to rig rates lower?

"Can the fed buy treasuries forever in an attempt to rig rates lower?"

What are the possible alternatives and outcomes? My bet is the Fed will buy long term Treasuries, unless Congress can somehow supplant low-interest loans for housing. Otherwise, additional foreclosures will continue to produce further banking losses, lending pressure, falling prices, lost jobs, spiral.

Sold Rimm@49.80
In FAS@ 7.99...Out 8.25

http://tinyurl.com/agsgdy

I do think that Greenspan should be tarred, feathered and carried out of town on a rail.

Why is Ian McCarthy singled out for blame among the home builder CEO's? He acted no differently than Bob Toll, Ara Hovnanian, Chad Drier, Bruce Karatz (who belongs near the top of the list, imo), Bill Pulte, Stuart Miller, Tim Eller or Steven Hilton? All of these men over built and aided and abetted the easy financing of homes for people who could not afford them. They knew full well they were borrowing extensively against future demand for housing, and they went right ahead and did it anyway.

For god's sake, KB Home was so corrupt they sold their finance division to Countrywide after the fraud they were committing became too much to hide. Countrywide!

Or what about the housing industry analysts who were at the front of the pack cheerleading the run up in housing -- specifically Margaret Whelan of UBS and Steven Kim of Citi? Where are they now? Who knows. They quickly became a major embarrassment to their respective institutions as this thing began to crumble. They have both disappeared without a trace.

But Ian McCarthy is one of the primary people responsible for this? Give me a break!

Thanks 2nd- I have great help. Trimmed my holdings to 6 key core positions. That's all I can follow closely, and look for windows to trade quickly.

Feb 12, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced today that it has completed its at-the-market offering of common stock. FCX raised $750 million in gross proceeds through the sale of 26.8 million shares of FCX common stock in open market transactions at an average price of $28.00 per share.

http://tinyurl.com/cbhxby
" Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, told CNBC in a documentary to be shown Thursday night that he did not fully understand the scope of the subprime mortgage market until well into 2005 and could not make sense of the complex derivative products created out of mortgages.

“So everybody in retrospect now knows that that boom was developing under the markets for quite a period of time, but nobody knew it,” Mr. Greenspan told CNBC’s David Faber. “In 2004, there was just no credible information on that. It wasn’t until we got well into 2005 that the first inklings that that was developing was emerging,” he said. "

Just a few thoughts on the way I trade. I don't refer to daily, weekly or monthly charts. Why? Because I am in and out of the position during the day most of the time. Sometimes, a few trades in the same stock daily. My favorite intraday time chart is the 15 minute one in realtime only! My key indicators are Stochastic %K 14, %D Slow 14,3,3,MACD 12,26, MACD Histogram 12,26,9,RSI 7, RSI 14 (those two RSIs generally coincide with each other I the time zone I use), Bollinger Bands 20,2,2 Important to look at contraction prior to breakout).
I find the Stochastics are my most valuable indicator. Look for breaks below 25 and above 75 using the fifteen minute chart. I hope this helps. If you trade differently intraday let me hear how you do it. Incidentally, I use Schwab StreetSmart Pro.

I agree, I'm not sure why Bernanke was left out. Only 3 or 4 of the 25 aren't a "former something." So, all the trouble makers have now been swept out of positions where they could do further harm?

I think the list should be a lot bigger than 25, but I suppose they only have just so much space in the magazine.

We are forgetting China and Japan.

They enabled us by buying the debt (if they didn't buy, we wouldn't have borrowed as much, no one told them they had to buy, now we have global imbalances and overcapacity). All part of the manufactoring bubble/ponzi scheme. It shows the nearsightedness of the author of the Times story. We could go as far back to say that our leaders of the 80s were also responsible.

May be feeling too careless, but I can't help but feel that things are WAY to pessimistic. Call me crazy but have nibbled on some DVN,HGT, in energy. Some MSFT, two cheap ETF,s in Australia and Singapore. Also think Gold is getting ahead of itself, (resistance seems strong @ $945- $950) but can't bail on positions this close to $1,000/Oz. Also the amount of noise out there in financial press, here, and so called experts leads me to think that this could be great opportunity to start buying. Think next two weeks will tell.

Was thinking same thing. If you bought at 10am today, the market is up 100 points. Trouble is, the day's not over.

Young pro, Josh Hayes, has 37 shorts. How many down? Every one of them.

Long DEO (Diageo) at $49.95 and PM (Philip Morris International) at $36.09 today. Both carry over 6% dividend (presumably safe) and at or very near 52-week lows. PM in RSI accumulation zone.

ALOHA !!

Employee levels in the US manufacturing sector has now dropped to 1945 levels. Some may call that "pessimism" but I call it "reality"!

In other words ... IT IS WHAT IT IS !! I refrain from labels of optimism or pessimism since they cloud "reality". Besides how do I know what people really think and feel? All I can go by is what actions people, business and governments take ... Judging by the heavy traffic and crowded parking lots at the mall here in Hilo, HI I would say US consumers are alive and well and in fact in most cities I visited that was what I saw! Many other people I met also asked, "Where's the recession?" Perhaps that will all change when unemployment benefits and welfare and food stamps run out? Who knows if that day will ever come? Won't be very politically popular these days to cut benefits ... therein lies the crux of too many government promises!

This chart is from the US FED, St. Louis,MO data ... I follow this sort of stuff because if there are no US employees in manufacturing then there will be much less trade exports and no trade balance and without trade balance the US Dollar is ultimately toast. I also watch closely US payroll tax revenues which are also suffering. Without such revenues, which make up the bulk of daily income for the US government, it forces the US government to print loans for itself ... something you and I go to jail for, called "counterfeiting"! When you and I cannot pay our bills we have to file BK we are not allowed to print $100 bills. The US government can only file BK once its money is worthless. Its money is deemed worthless when nobody wants US DEBT! Something those at the US Treasury will not warn you about! It'll happen on a weekend is all we can predict! Really unless you are a fly on the wall at Obama's or Geitner's offices you have little chance to know anything of value ... So much for WE THE PEOPLE!

Link to MANEMP: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP...

How is Taiwan related to NAFTA?

for a trade...

I would rate the "want it now" generation as the engine that drove this train wreck off the cliff,all other parties were just helping us get what we thought we wanted! Only if and when we accept more responsibility for our decisions will be even start to heal, Forget the front page of "Time" it's closer that you think.
Skylane

HGU is at $14.65 with gold at $950.

less than a year HGU was over $22 and gold was at $950.

wow. at this rate, if gold goes to $1000, HGU may hit $18-19.

im realizing nothing has changed. gold stocks arent moving down w/ the broad market but they are not improving their position relative to gold. they have fallen so far and so behind, im starting to now reconsider their ability to really qualify as a proxy for gold. w/ energy where its at they still cant report good earnings.

what am i missing with this disaster? never thought id be this disappointed with gold at $950.

Why did this economic crisis happen "coincidently" just before the November election, while the tinder has been laid and built upon for the a number of years, waiting for a self serving combustible moment with the media playing the role of the bellows? If you want to focus on an individual who is probably as guilty as sin, take a long hard look at George Soros and numerous members of Congress (Frank, Dodd etc).

The stimulus package (the way it is structured and the elements it contains) is nothing more than steering the United States towards Socialism, which will weaken the entrepreneurial spirit (when it needs bolstering) and increase dependency (when the human spirit should be lifted with incentives to be creative).

This is a pivotal/watershed moment when Barack Obama can define himself as an enlightened stateman or a liberal Socialist political hack, that chants we won and acts like an irresponsible child let loose in a candy store. The market is seeing the latter. The elected respresentatives in Washington are for the most part educated individuals, and know the ramifications of their actions. By going down this path they are abrogating their fiduciary responsibilities. They do not represent the hard working, tax paying, law abiding citizens of the United States who are out pulling the wagon that keeps this country moving.

It is said that a country gets the government that it deserves. In a way that is true. Far too many squander a good portion of their waking lives watching vacuous TV (opiate of the masses) programs (American Idol, sports, dysfunctional series etc) and know nothing about what is happening in the world, country, or their own city for that matter.

Watching the political campaign this past cycle one can see how we got the mess with which we are faced. The Democrats/Obama mustered all the inexperenced (youth, college students, academics), under-educated (those who did not apply themselves while in school and think education is a joke), dysfunctional, and pseudo-intellectuals (who thought it would be "cool" to have a minority as president and enjoy hypothesizing about the aforementioned others but don't want to physically associate with them "not in my neighborhood"). One of the qualities of the these groups is that they have a surplus of under utilzed time and this was put to good use implementing every sleazy (borderline to illegal) voting scheme one can imagine (Acorn etc). The common thread of these individuals is that they love to stick sharp sticks into the eyes of responsible individuals and organizations.

The children have the reins of power for the time being, and there will be one big mess to clean up to sterize as a result of CHANGE.

Well said...thank you!

I agree with your outlook, but would wait a little more on DVN - that Q4 loss was massive.

On Jan. 14, the company reported a preliminary fourth-quarter profit of 60 cents to 75 cents per share. The pre-announcement forced analysts to adjust their targets, which, at the time, rested near 48 cents per share. Furthermore, The Wall Street Journal added more fuel to the fire when it said on Jan. 16 that U.S. refiners, such as Tesoro, continue to improve as refining margins widen.
From a technical perspective, this wealth of positive news has only fanned the flames of TSO's rally. Since bottoming just below $7 per share on Nov. 21, the stock has surged more than 174%. Additionally, TSO enjoys the stalwart support of its rising 10-day and 20-day moving averages, having not closed a session below this duo since Dec. 5.

A while back someone kindly posted the below chart on SKF. It looks to me like the behavior of STO uncannily predicts the trend or am I looking at the data backwards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0...

we bounced back up hard on both crashes the past 6 months. what really worries me here is the markets are now slowly drifting lower, getting comfortable with these levels.

http://tinyurl.com/aak4nh

Watch the 800 S&P level. I hope TOG kicks off soon.

Nyugrad
hit the nail with the hammer!

It was decades of actions that caused this mess. The root causebis how money is created or fractional banking in a fiat regime.

Make no mistake the band aids put into place since august of 07 were not going to shelter the world from what was going to happen. This was not engineered by PTB for Obama to win the election. The paradigm shift of social mood caused his victory, he has money because money was tired of our policies (after they were enriched).

Nothing can stop these crashes, they can only be delayed, longer delay larger the collapse. We have a big one here but the cause was a confluence of problems and time to build the monster.

That being said it will take time to fix it.
Nothing else.

This board is not bearish by tv way nor does it have pessimism. Much much more of those thoughts elsewhere and the aheeple still have "hope".
Recovery lies in dispair, were not there yet.....

Small entry into CSX at 28.40.

Uncertainly doesn't drive VIX as much as fear does?
December 1 20008 S&P was at around 812 and VIX at around 65. Today vix is around 45 and S&P is around 812

Boy that trade didn't work. Contango widened by an extra $1.50 just today. It's now an $8 difference between March and April oil. I wonder what this does to USO? When do they roll their contracts? USO is only down 2% while March oil is down 6%.

EDC - you wrote: "We are forgetting China and Japan. They enabled us by buying the debt"

Isn't that like an alcohol blaming his wife for not taking away the credit card with which he buys his booze?

Isn't that like an ALCOHOLIC blaming his wife for not taking away the credit card with which he buys his booze?

(Sorry for mis-spelling, but I had a beer with lunch .... LOL)

Didnt like that it kept hugging $6.90 and that the next area would be 6.50. and i am suspecting a lot more pain for non prec metal equities, so going to wait for some oversold conditions in Cara 100.

goog question...I bought some more today, both

The level of desinformation on CNBC reaches new highs, eh new lows:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS - News) denied a CNBC television report on Thursday that it had convened a "emergency" meeting of top investors earlier this week, prompted by worries about the viability of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's bank rescue plan.

A Goldman spokesman said it hosted 30 private equity and hedge fund firms for a dinner Tuesday, a routine client meeting. The event, hosted by veteran investment banker Milton Berlinski and co-President Gary Cohn, had been scheduled three weeks ago.

"There was no secret, emergency meeting to discuss the Geithner plan," Goldman spokesman Lucas van Praag told Reuters. "We clearly could not have called a meeting. We'd need to be psychic."

In an emailed statement, Goldman said: "Three weeks ago, we issued an invitation to a large group of our investing clients to discuss market conditions, including a presentation on the macroeconomic environment. The fact that the dinner took place on the same day as the Treasury Department's announcement was a coincidence."

On Thursday, Charles Gasparino, a CNBC on-air editor, reported that Goldman had convened the 20 largest investment firms for an "emergency discussion" of the Geithner plan within hours of the plan's presentation to the public.

Attendees expressed worries about the plan and suggested alternatives for reviving the financial markets, Gasparino reported on CNBC.

"He was completely wrong. The spin was wrong. The facts are wrong. The implications of what he's suggesting are also wrong," said van Praag.

i will try to get back in later.

EDIT: Back in. tht was quite a comeback for the market.

Buy 750 shares FAS at 7.95 Limit Day 02/12/09 Filled

02/12/09 13:01 Filled 100 at 7.95
02/12/09 13:01 Filled 100 at 7.95
02/12/09 13:01 Filled 100 at 7.95
02/12/09 13:01 Filled 400 at 7.95
02/12/09 13:01 Filled 50 at 7.95

Cash Buy 200 shares TNA at Market Day 02/12/09 Filled

02/12/09 14:55 Filled 200 at 22.264

Sell 200 shares TNA at Market Day 02/12/09 Filled

02/12/09 15:30 Filled 100 at 23.6327
02/12/09 15:30 Filled 100 at 23.632

Sell 750 shares FAS at Market Day 02/12/09 Filled

02/12/09 15:36 Filled 750 at 8.252

bought some more VPHM and new positions in DRYS and CNH at 3pm/

SiO2 - yes I think I understand now. USO takes a hit equal to the contango at the time of the roll forward, and in the meantime goes up or down by the gain or loss in front month oil price during that period. Since oil has stayed pretty much the same (looking at the chart of $WTIC) and since contango is like $6, USO gets nailed for a 20% loss each month.

Just like I would have, had I held that front month $WTIC an entire month, and then had to close it out today.

Is that right?

Only the most naive would believe this explanation...

U.S. stocks trimmed losses late Thursday following a report that the Obama administration may directly subsidize mortgage payments for homeowners, though uncertainty on an incomplete bank-rescue plan and long-anticipated economic stimulus package kept the market under pressure.

Late Thursday, Reuters reported the Obama administration is working on a program to subsidize mortgage payments for troubled homeowners who have gone through a standardized re-appraisal and affordability test, citing sources familiar with the plan.

http://tinyurl.com/aj5wvj

US SENATE JUDD GREGG (R) WITHDRAWS AS NOMINEE AS COMMERCE SECRETARY, CITES STIMULUS PLAN HAVING 'IRRESOLVABLE CONFLICTS'

Yeah, I think a trader could put on his trades at 10 AM and 3PM, fading Ma and Pa's opening moves and trading in concert with the big boys at 3PM and call it a day.

I picked a job but with changing daily schedules, it's tough to put a trade on. Fortunately my stock screening doesn't take long and given my other screening criteria and when the market isn't doing extreme moves every day, there's not many trades to do.

More sitting like Jesse Livermore and waiting.

alberio,

This was before NAFTA, but when NAFTA was up for a vote one of the points made for its passage was that it would improve conditions for the people in countries where we shifted our manufacturing. In fact we had already been jeopardizing the health of people as in the Taiwan example.

Post NAFTA passage GM Electro-Motive Division (which had beenbuilding complete locomotives in LaGrange, IL for decades) began towing locos to Mexico for painting to circumvent costly OSHA employee protective regs.

The saving on the paint job = $50,000. The savings on nuts, bolts and screws = a few cents per package.

We can do things for people or do things to people — big difference.

Bruce Thomas,

I'm mostly looking at longer trends although I do occasionally do some shorter term. I find it easier to make predictions for individual stocks than sectors or indexes.

I do think the average person is feeling too threatened to go back to spending like before the derivatives splattered even if banks want to lend. I also think the attempt to restore an easy credit economy is in itself like restoring booze to an alcoholic (to borrow the current analogy).

But then, when was the last time a major government spending program worked out well?

Yes That DVN Q4 loss was bad, but have made some decent cash trading this stock. Also company has good prospects down the road as far as reserves are concerned and potential takeover target.

davf, there is no hit at the time of rolling forward. The same $ amounts held in USO are used to buy the higher priced contracts, it will then just own fewer equivalent barrels. The hit in price is gradual throughout the month. Your comment on $WTIC is correct.

Bruce, glad you made money in it - I followed Devon for a long time but never pulled the trigger on it. I was looking for a good nat gas play and didn't really find one I liked. Most of the ones I considered were mixed petroleum/gas producers and drillers/explorers. Traded Forest Oil (FST) a few times already this year for decent gains, buying around 13-14, selling around 18-19 - did the same with CHK, and that's been about it for me in energy. No current position.

Thanks for the response bsi87....seems like a good system and very efficient if you only end up with a few targets at the end.

16:25 GERN DISCLOSES ADVERSE PATENT RULING IN NOVEMBER 2008 - FILING
- On November 27, 2008, Announced that the Enlarged Board of Appeals of the European Patent Office (EPO) has issued a decision in case G0002/06, which was an appeal by the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation (WARF) against the rejection of claims in WARF's European Patent Application No. 96903521.1. The claims of the application pertain to the first isolation of human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) by Dr. James Thomson at the University of Wisconsin. The Company holds a worldwide license under this patent family.
- The decision upholds the rejection of WARF's claims as being impermissible under a rule of the European Patent Convention that prohibits the patenting of inventions which concern "the uses of human embryos for industrial or commercial purposes." In reaching its decision, the Enlarged Board of Appeals emphasized the fact that at the time that the priority patent application was filed (in 1995), the only method of obtaining hESCs, as described in the application, required the use of a human embryo. Following Thomson's discovery, many hESC lines have become widely available through stem cell banks, obviating the need for researchers to culture the cells from embryonic material. The applicability of this decision to such lines is uncertain.

16:29 WEAKNESS ALSO BEING ATTRIBUTED TO CHATTER OF A SPOT SECONDARY
- chatter of a 7.25M offering at $6.60-$6.85

Thanks Vadym.

Today's action was not the work of the ppt, short covering rally. Nothing more than that, move along nothing to see.

The mortgage welfare plan announcement scared the shorts to cover. Nuff said.
This sounds very familiar to the bad bank idea of last week, buy rumor sell news. I don't believe this news will be bought that strongly. We needed a rally and hopefully it continues so the shorts can reload and get this market down to a reasonble price.

Remember wages didn't go up much since the 80s.
Stocks are not cheap.
Can't have cake and eats too.

Cp - I guess the udx should hit 90 before a good correction. Yah yah yah I know it is a crap currency but what else is there besides trading gold? My gold lotto ticket is a ways out before it will be cashed.

Trade nothing more, set your stops kids.

"what am i missing with this disaster? never thought id be this disappointed with gold at $950."

dr.cosa, we are in late stages of severe bear market now, and pessimism abounds in the late stages. ALL stocks are priced lower than where they would have been in a bull market, for the same company fundamentals. John Hussman mentioned that the main reason good stocks go down during a bear market is because investors a locally panicking and lowering the multiple they use for the P/E ratios. It has nothing to do with company fundamentals. So I don't think it is fair to "pick" on the gold stocks now...

davefairtex, you can think of the contango dynamics as follows. The May futures are 35% higher now than the WTI spot price. Say the futures are settled on May 20. Then, on the morning of May 20, why would anyone pay for these futures (to be delivered in a few hours) anything different from the spot price? So as the time to delivery decreases, the futures price approaches, gradually, that of the spot price. Hence, if everything stays in place, then UCO will lose about 75% in two months, since it is tracking the May futures now, which will decline 35% in price (if the contango structure remains as it is now).

EDIT 2: got some clarity from investor relations.

"The 2008 year-end release date was originally scheduled for Feb 19th (we had press released this on Jan 21st), however, after the bought deal was announced we moved the date to Feb 27th as all resources were being dedicated to the financing. With the bought deal completed on time, we are able to get the financials completed as planned and therefore are keeping the original date of Feb 19th."

Doesnt seem like a big deal at all. Wish i could delete my post.

------Original post below--------------

I have mixed emotions about this. In the community's experience, why do companies do this?

"VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Feb 12, 2009 -- Silver Wheaton Corp. (Toronto:SLW.TO - News)(NYSE:SLW - News) has rescheduled the release date of the 2008 year end results to Thursday, February 19, 2009 before market open, ahead of the previously announced date of February 27, 2009 (see Silver Wheaton press release dated January 26, 2009)."

http://tinyurl.com/bhzck6

EDIT: and i am not sure if this was announced today or Jan 26. Kind of confused.

Jim Chanos, professional short seller on NBR tonite. 1st time ever seen this guy (I know him, he ferreted out Enron) on TV. Must be near a tradeable bottom.

I don't know how many follow the timing system of Decision Moose but for what it's worth, they switched from treasuries to gold this week. For geezers like me who trend trade asset classes, these folks have been spot on for a long long time.

FD, I do have a position in PMPIX.

2nd- I was out in the field all day and right after I checked FAS on my phone I saw your post and thought, YEP. Nice move, man. Wish I could have gotten back to the office for the close today.
I'm also thinking it's time to be looking more closely/aggressively at oil again. The spring seems tighter than ever.

Kerry- I used to try to trade @ 12 core positions, but on days when things are dicey ( lots lately) I felt like I is was trapped in an endless game of "Whack-A-Mole". I like the protection of more positions, think RIMM yesterday, but it was too much for me. I'm new at this, so take a health dose of caution with my thoughts.

mish's blog has a great and simple post on gold:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02...

Deeply appreciate both Bill and Kaimu's core insights and first hand source opinions. You two are the best new era (blog) editor and columnist of the financial world as far as I'm concerned and I read a lot of financial blogs.

I noticed today that China is to continue buying U.S. Treasuries. Despite U.S. payroll tax dropping off, as observed by Kaimu, China looks to be more concerned with maintaining USD stability and the Renminbi's peg to it than starting to pull out of U.S. debt for fear of default/over exposure to treasuries. Apparently, China knows if it shows no more interest and, even worse, a noticable move out of U.S. debt, all the gold in .... China ... won't save the Renminbi.

Heck, China may even help U.S. avoid monetizing its debt as the printing press ominously rolls into overdrive. It was China, in part, that enabled all of Greenspan's easy/excessive debt creation in the first place so now it chooses to double down!

TBT is therefore dead money for now. Accumulating silver and gold miners and physical bars/coins while swing trading blue chips.

http://tinyurl.com/d6fqny

Fireworks- I would love to see that happen, but bet it would only make a bunch of attorneys rich. That horse is out of the barn.

David, excellent information on shorting 3x shorts. However only thing I am worried is sometimes the broker forces us to cover it up when the price is not in our favor. It happened to me when I was shorting OIL. From that time onwards I rarely short any, instead I use ultra shorts. Good luck with FAZ.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: February 12, 2009: 1:49 PM ET
YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Some big banks have cut back on doing business with mortgage brokers - and if the trend continues, many mortgage brokers could close down.

That may be bad news for consumers because fewer brokers could lead to a less competitive marketplace and more expensive home loans resulting from consumers not being able to easily comparison-shop rates.

"The banks want to get rid of mortgage professionals to reduce competition," said Alan Rosenbaum, founder of GuardHill Financial, a New York City-based brokerage firm. "It's not good for consumers."

A few years ago, according to Rosenbaum, mortgage brokers were responsible for 80% of the mortgage-lending business in America. He said that's probably under 70% now and dropping.

My take on all this is that the banks started "this mess" (Mozilo being numero uno) first tarred and feathered brokers in order to stop having intelligent people informing 'their borrowers' of their rights.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelo_Mozilo

ALOHA !!

I would do the same if I had that many US Pesos ... Yet, while China does that they are buying up resources all over the World. They have taken my playbook on the ASX and bought Perilya and Rio Tinto and have moved over $5bil into Ghana, West Africa mining and oil. I am in all those sectors and countries myself. Before it is all over China will have amassed huge resources all over the commodity World! First lets see if China can survive their own internal demise of unemployment and banking ...

I am doing the same as China is while the US Dollar is still in rally mode ... or should I be more accurate and say while other currencies are not! Buy up the commodity plays in countries with the weaker currencies, but the stronger commodities. I would classify Australia as one of the more stable countries to own mining plays. China has had a very long relationship with Australia in that regards, especially Western Australia. Prior to China it was Japan in the 1970s that was all over Western Australia resources.

I seriously doubt that the Chinese leaders will hang their hat on the US Dollar over resources in the long run!

With regard to the US Dollar ... IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T!

Someone read the fine print of the GLD prospectus and didn't like what they saw.

http://www.runtogold.com/2008/12/a-problem-with-gl...

Basically reiterating out what Kaimu just pointed out.

Aren't public accountants required to audit GLD and IAU? And if so, aren't physical inventories taken annually as part of the audit procedure?

UL and PG are both in the dumps and may be ready for an upswing. It seems investors have caught on to the notion that even providers of basic discretionary items do not have pricing power as a recession deepens.

If the guy in this video:

http://tinyurl.com/aslmvs

a value investor, perceives correctly that prices are not yet bargains because forward estimates are still tied to historical data, which as we can see no longer applies, then it begets the question of what is going to happen to the market in the near future, as earnings bomb left, right and centre.

Maybe a slice of defensive consumer stocks wouldn't be such a bad idea right now?

Along with some silver, which appears to have yet to catch up with the movement in gold.

GLT.

Them be fighting words...

"MASSIVE MONETIZATION DEAD AHEAD

The funding requirements for the USGovt are fifteen steps beyond colossal. A nasty surprise has already come for those who issue USTreasury Bonds and conduct auctions, A VERY BIG NASTY SURPRISE SO BIG THAT THE MEDIA NETWORKS REFUSE TO MENTION IT!!! The details are in the February Hat Trick Letter, and relate to angry, defrauded, and themselves defensive creditors. Foreign economies must tend to their own lands first and foremost. They also react to fraud on a scale perpetrated against them never witnessed before in human history. Find a time in all annals of history when national savings have been solicited and defrauded on this scale by another nation. There is none! This is the legacy of the Untied States, or better yet Wall Street, which has taken control of its host the USGovt like a cancer. The combination of unfettered usage of federal printing presses to create (and thus debauch) its money, together with abusive bilateral hostile actions directed at creditor nations (like China), together with bailouts & rescues soon to reach $10 trillion, together with continued Wall Street control of the USDept Treasury (see Goldman Sachs), together with a steady stream of major monster fraud cases (see Bernie Madoff), WILL SEND GOLD & SILVER NORTH IN PRICE. Lastly, the rising USTreasury Yield Curve also heralds a rising gold price, as the vile specter of monetization has begun to harm the 10-year and 30-year USTreasury Bond integrity.

Just a quick note on the Madoff victims. A closer look of supposed victims reveals his co-conspirators. They are framed as victims by a subservient press that has no desire at all to publicize where the stolen money is stored. It is in the banks of an allied nation that is beyond reproach, bordering the Mediterranean."

http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/feb052009.html

I immediately pulled out of GLD with the first of your detailed posts about their questionable behavior.

In addition to buying physical gold on dips I'm in GTU and CEF. Any opinion you may have on these would be appreciated.

Thanks for the update.

Greg -

I don't know if rumors of KRY approaching Rusoro are true. I'd expect the main problem is that KRY is worth nothing. Unlike GRZ, KRY doesn't even hold the concession to the deposit they want to mine; they're just a contractor to the government entity (CVG) which holds the concession.

Also there is the pending litigation from Placer Dome's time and before.

I would expect things will go slow, and that the gov't will ultimately sort this out using their sovereign power. I'll try to speak the company, but imagine they will say nothing about it.

Bill, Thank you for the invitation to address the systematic decimation of our ranks. This iPhone limits my access to research...I will send you some fodder tomorrow. I rode my bike to work today to save gas money. Thank goodness I like rice and beans!