[6:35am ET] While it’s not easy to trade the market conditions that exist today, there is a precedent. The 1930’s was, like the present time, the Great Reflation. Fortunes were built in the stock market in the 1930’s for those who recognized the implications of massive reflation.
The largest one-day percentage gain in the DJIA index happened on March 15, 1933 (62.10 8.26 +15.34%), in the depths of the Bear market that started from a high of 381.17 on Sept 3, 1929. After some whip-saw Bear phase moves to 198.69 on Nov 13, 1929, followed by a booming rally to 294.07 on April 17, 1930, there was a plunge over 813 days of -86.0% to the long-term cycle low of 41.22 on July 8, 1932. Two months later the DJIA had soared +61% to 79.93, before falling back to 50.16 on Feb 27, 1933, which turned out to be a higher low, confirming that the Bear had died, which takes us back to that massive single-day move of +15.34% on March 15, 1933 with the DJIA up to 62.10.
From that burst of buying, the DJIA continued to move up to 110.74 on Feb 5, 1934; then back to a higher low of 85.51, 171 days and -22.8% later, on July 26, 1934, then soaring even higher to 194.40 on March 10, 1937.
After a pull-back of 386 days down to 98.95 on March 31, 1938, the DJIA moved up to 158.41 on Nov 12, 1938. Then there was a 147 day Bear phase down to 121.44 on April 8, 1939, followed by a spurt of 157 days, to 155.92 on Sept 12, 1939. But, that move just to 155.92 was the first time in six-and-a-half years there was not a higher high followed by a higher low followed by a higher high, which is the definition of a Bull market. Sure enough, the next low was 959 days later at 92.92, on April 28, 1942.
A few months after that, the Trading Wizard was born. Immediately – perhaps it was osmosis -- I knew there was a concrete difference between meaning of ‘Great Depression’ and the rising prices in the equity market. It was a horrible time for the people, but easy pickings for those with money and close connections to Wall Street and Washington.
Another thing I learned from that period was that during the years 1929-1939, as and when the DJIA plunged -61% from its 1929 highs, the price of Gold jumped +69% but even that was a small fraction of the +485% gain in Homestake Mining, which at that time was the largest US Goldminer.
Let this be a lesson – I have given it here before – that if you listen to economists and their subjective reporting of dour economic data, and you fail to keep your total focus on market price action, you might miss the Bull.
Yes, Friday we sold our long-running gold-related positions, as we booked significant gains. But this is the Great Reflation and that means I merely jumped off the train to pick up a few lumps of coal. There will be more down the line, and so I’m biding time before I hop back on board. I might even do it today.
Then again… This market was headed due south a couple hours ago when suddenly the $USD started tanking again. It's amazing to me these Interventionists have never heard of trends and cycles. Why fight it?
Comments
Controlling Your Risk
Controlling Your Risk from Brettt Steenbarger
I received an eloquent email from an excellent trader who marveled that he trades very well when he trades moderate (but still significant) size, but then trades quite poorly when he trades his maximum size. His level of risk-taking, he finds, affects his emotional experience in trading. Yesterday, when he traded moderate risk through the day, he traded consistently and made significant profits. Last week, when he maximized his risk, he violated a number of his trading rules and lost significant money.
Same trader, same trading methods--only risk levels altered his emotions, his decision-making, and his performance.
Research suggests that different areas of the brain process risk and reward. Moreover, brain activation in the face of reward tends to be more rapid than in the face of risk. Other research shows that individual differences in our patterns of brain activity are closely correlated to our risk tolerance and risk aversion. This research finds that "reward centers" in the brain become more or less active depending upon how much money can be won or lost. Significantly, these reward centers are "some of the same areas of the brain that are activated when people take cocaine, eat chocolate or look at a beautiful face."
It appears that the thrill of risk and prospect of reward "hijack" the reward centers of the brain, particularly the dopamine system. This research emphasizes that gambling affects the portions of the brain associated with "planning and forming strategies". Is it any wonder that traders report "losing discipline" as a common psychological concern?
There is a very important lesson to be learned from the trader who wrote to me: By controlling our exposure to risk and reward, we control the degree to which our brains get hijacked. Trading 100% of our risk turns planned trading into gambling; cutting risk back moderates the reactivity of our dopamine systems.
There is also another sobering conclusion: failing to moderate our risk--day after day, week after week--can make permanent changes in the brain. According to one researcher, "In people that develop problems with gambling it seems that parts of that area don't work as well as they used to." By altering the dopamine system, a normal person can turn into a gambling addict. This is an example of neuroplasticity: the ability of the brain to change structure and function as the result of experience.
By creating the right kinds of experience, we literally can shape our brains for success. By generating the wrong kinds of experience, we can turn ourselves into impaired decision-makers. The difference between right and wrong, for traders, often boils down to the amount of risk we take with the capital we have.
I try to avoid overstatement, but in my opinion, this is one of the most important topics I've ever posted to the blog. Those who read the research linked above and the posts linked below--and who heed the message of risk levels and brain function--quite literally can save their trading careers and meaningfully advance their odds of success. You can't succeed if you don't have control, and you don't have control if the reward circuitry of your brain is hijacked by the risks and rewards you're pursuing.
RELATED POSTS:
The Brain and Handling Volatile Markets
Trading and the Brain
Trading Performance and the Brain
Asia decoupling?
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/06/04/asia...
Not to promote Prieur's site...gag...this fellow has an interesting take, frankly similar to what Mr. Wong and Bill said at the Conference. Having said that, it may also be the reason oil marches through the century mark in the not too distant future. How much further can demand go down in the US? Where is demand going in the emerging markets?
disclosure: DENSA member
gold here....
about $960.
yesterday's action in the USD was as knee-jerk as it gets.
i suspect it was a bounce due to the severity of the tumble its taken the past month, and no more.
Bernanke speaking about spiraling deficits should in reality have no such bullish bearing on the dollar, and all the talk of US dollar/debt default is imho a smoke screen for the many other nations printing money, and struggling with economic problems just as bad if not worse than america's.
whats happening in california is an excellent example of whats to come: serious cuts to social spending, state wages alongside rises in taxes and fees.
it hurts, it can be heartbreaking but in the end it will begin the slow road to restoring fiscal stability. it may take many years but the first priority is to stop the bleeding.
for a nation w/ the prosperity of the US, far far too many peopole are dependant on some sort of government aid or program. i think there will be all sorts of doomsday scenario's but they will not come to fruition to that extent. people will suffer, people will cut back spending and vactions, and people will move to places where the prospects for a job are greater. Europeans did it by the boat load in the 20th century, the state could not afford to keep millions doing nothing because the economy was in tatters.
so california, and other states, will slowly bleed dry their social spending while upping taxes makign everyone's life that much more difficult, but in all likleyhood will come through it in a few years a bit leaner, smarter and tougher, having realized that the state can ill afford to forever increase spending for able bodied people of working age to be taken care of by the state.
for the many single parent families struggling i feel their pain, but ultimately no nation can support every mom and every child because of their predicament, people will have to find solutions and move to cheaper areas, find babysitting pools, get a job and move on with it.
people have been decrying the end of america and their decadent ways for over 100 years, every crisis they ever faced on a grand scale was eventually met once the massive gears got moving. the japanese made that mistake, so did the germans. i suspect americans are getting the kick in the pants right now but will get moving soon enough and surprise many of us, even us canadians with their ability to cope these spending cuts. wont be east but its not impossible to unwind the overburnded state obligations for what has become nothing more than an elaborate welfare system.
Bing dot com
Today there’s a pretty positive WSJ online article about Microsoft’s new search engine. (I haven’t checked it out yet) Google search dominates this area so much, "google it" has been added to the dictionary. Nonetheless, competition usually brings improvements, enhancements.
http://tinyurl.com/o52lxo
One of the WSJ excerpts:
“For people looking up airline flights, Microsoft integrates a technology called Bing Travel into the search. This tool predicts whether a fare will go up or down in the future based on data aggregation and analysis. A built-in tool works similarly with hotels, analyzing data to tell if you're getting a good deal.”
From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
An interesting addition to what the doc. just said:
The global recession is the biggest development in the global system in the year to date. In the United States, it has become almost dogma that the recession is the worst since the Great Depression. But this is only one of a wealth of misperceptions about whom the downturn is hurting most, and why.
Let’s begin with some simple numbers.
As one can see in the chart, the U.S. recession at this point is only the worst since 1982, not the 1930s, and it pales in comparison to what is occurring in the rest of the world. (Figures for China have not been included, in part because of the unreliability of Chinese statistics, but also because the country’s financial system is so radically different from the rest of the world as to make such comparisons misleading. For more, read the China section below.)
But didn’t the recession begin in the United States? That it did, but the American system is far more stable, durable and flexible than most of the other global economies, in large part thanks to the country’s geography. To understand how place shapes economics, we need to take a giant step back from the gloom and doom of the current moment and examine the long-term picture of why different regions follow different economic paths.
The United States and the Free Market
The most important aspect of the United States is not simply its sheer size, but the size of its usable land. Russia and China may both be similar-sized in absolute terms, but the vast majority of Russian and Chinese land is useless for agriculture, habitation or development. In contrast, courtesy of the Midwest, the United States boasts the world’s largest contiguous mass of arable land — and that mass does not include the hardly inconsequential chunks of usable territory on both the West and East coasts.
Second is the American maritime transport system. The Mississippi River, linked as it is to the Red, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee rivers, comprises the largest interconnected network of navigable rivers in the world. In the San Francisco Bay, Chesapeake Bay and Long Island Sound/New York Bay, the United States has three of the world’s largest and best natural harbors. The series of barrier islands a few miles off the shores of Texas and the East Coast form a water-based highway — an Intercoastal Waterway — that shields American coastal shipping from all but the worst that the elements can throw at ships and ports.
The real beauty is that the two overlap with near perfect symmetry. The Intercoastal Waterway and most of the bays link up with agricultural regions and their own local river systems (such as the series of rivers that descend from the Appalachians to the East Coast), while the Greater Mississippi river network is the circulatory system of the Midwest. Even without the addition of canals, it is possible for ships to reach nearly any part of the Midwest from nearly any part of the Gulf or East coasts. The result is not just a massive ability to grow a massive amount of crops — and not just the ability to easily and cheaply move the crops to local, regional and global markets — but also the ability to use that same transport network for any other economic purpose without having to worry about food supplies.
The implications of such a confluence are deep and sustained. Where most countries need to scrape together capital to build roads and rail to establish the very foundation of an economy, transport capability, geography granted the United States a near-perfect system at no cost. That frees up U.S. capital for other pursuits and almost condemns the United States to be capital-rich. Any additional infrastructure the United States constructs is icing on the cake. (The cake itself is free — and, incidentally, the United States had so much free capital that it was able to go on to build one of the best road-and-rail networks anyway, resulting in even greater economic advantages over competitors.)
Third, geography has also ensured that the United States has very little local competition. To the north, Canada is both much colder and much more mountainous than the United States. Canada’s only navigable maritime network — the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway —is shared with the United States, and most of its usable land is hard by the American border. Often this makes it more economically advantageous for Canadian provinces to integrate with their neighbor to the south than with their co-nationals to the east and west.
Similarly, Mexico has only small chunks of land, separated by deserts and mountains, that are useful for much more than subsistence agriculture; most of Mexican territory is either too dry, too tropical or too mountainous. And Mexico completely lacks any meaningful river system for maritime transport. Add in a largely desert border, and Mexico as a country is not a meaningful threat to American security (which hardly means that there are not serious and ongoing concerns in the American-Mexican relationship).
With geography empowering the United States and hindering Canada and Mexico, the United States does not need to maintain a large standing military force to counter either. The Canadian border is almost completely unguarded, and the Mexican border is no more than a fence in most locations — a far cry from the sort of military standoffs that have marked more adversarial borders in human history. Not only are Canada and Mexico not major threats, but the U.S. transport network allows the United States the luxury of being able to quickly move a smaller force to deal with occasional problems rather than requiring it to station large static forces on its borders.
Like the transport network, this also helps the U.S. focus its resources on other things.
Taken together, the integrated transport network, large tracts of usable land and lack of a need for a standing military have one critical implication: The U.S. government tends to take a hands-off approach to economic management, because geography has not cursed the United States with any endemic problems. This may mean that the United States — and especially its government — comes across as disorganized, but it shifts massive amounts of labor and capital to the private sector, which for the most part allows resources to flow to wherever they will achieve the most efficient and productive results.
Laissez-faire capitalism has its flaws. Inequality and social stress are just two of many less-than-desirable side effects. The side effects most relevant to the current situation are, of course, the speculative bubbles that cause recessions when they pop. But in terms of long-term economic efficiency and growth, a free capital system is unrivaled. For the United States, the end result has proved clear: The United States has exited each decade since post-Civil War Reconstruction more powerful than it was when it entered it. While there are many forces in the modern world that threaten various aspects of U.S. economic standing, there is not one that actually threatens the U.S. base geographic advantages.
Is the United States in recession? Of course. Will it be forever? Of course not. So long as U.S. geographic advantages remain intact, it takes no small amount of paranoia and pessimism to envision anything but long-term economic expansion for such a chunk of territory. In fact, there are a number of factors hinting that the United States may even be on the cusp of recovery.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
NOK - Robert W. Baird Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $18
NKE - Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with a Perform.
Bill, once again I thank you for wisdom not to be found
elsewhere, even for a price. Your ability to help people understand the full picture is a gift. Your years of hard work and your gift of this blog is one of those periods of time when real hero's emerge. Thank You.
To reiterate a point from yesterday
That the bearded wonder (Bernanke, not Vadym:) expressed the notion that the system is nearing the breaking point was seized on traders as being a reason to sell gold. WTF? I don't think so. Bernanke would sooner cut off his own pisello than see nationalized health care, obviously, so that's where he chose to draw the line. Lorena Bobbitt could draw him another.
Mark- OCLS up 25% pre-market. What up?
Volume 202,000.
Plan 'o Day
Taking a break from thinking about all the macro-stuff. Keeping my eye on DV (nice low Beta) for a possible inverted H&S breakout around $46.38. Target: around $53.73. There is one heavy resistance around $49.56. Time frame: 1-2 months.
NGas up 1.7%.
UNG bid 14.54.
Re: 30-year T-bond auction today
Keep a watch on dat dere gold price.
Gold price
A misunderstood point...When gold closes above a thou this time it will stick, and will draw a monsterous pile of new money into the gold market. Pro's will buy gold more eagerly above a thousand than below. And so should you.
Gold is going to $2000 EASY.
Oh and the burden of being a day trader? Why the HECK, I ask myself on mornings such as this, WHY didn't I hang on to the 10.76 Yamana I bought and sold yesterday?...... WHY?
Re: Gold price
shark- I'm going to remember that. Your batting average is well above 0.500 on these calls.
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
just a little leaven to the cake you bake, Les
Canadian prairies - wheat basket of the world
Oil & gas - plenty thanks, want some?
basic materials - got 'em all
precious metals - lots
diamonds - yes, some of those too
potable water - plenty thanks, want some?
non-carbon energy - plenty thanks, want some?l
lumber - so much American producers can't stand it.
health care - nobody dies because they can't afford it
quality of life - wouldn't trade.
gold and oil
out. standing aside.
XLF back to 12.10, XLE bumping up against 52
...
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
touché
Cara 100 Update
BRCM - Price Target Raised from $25 to $32 @ Argus. Buy
QCOM - Bernstein Initiates Coverage with an Outperform.
Re: Gold price
Kind, very kind my friend.
I do have a feeling about this one. It's like writing a good song, you know...It has an air of inevitability about it. And when you hear it you know it 'aint BS.
BTW I watched the composite photos of the Cara Convention in the upper right of Bill's site. What a lot of fun it looks like you had. If any of the female Caristas live in the tri-state area I would be pleased to get together for a little trading related wine event thing. Let me know.
You know it's a little like a classic "Market Wizards" conundrum that the fed is now in, and you know damn well which way it will resolve. Someone said it well yesterday, to paraphrase....."Better to inflate the bejabbers out of everything and save the structure of the economy than to keep the "integrity" of the dollar and make it quite irrelevant due to economic death-of-nation."
Re: 30-year T-bond auction today
Econoday says:
3, 10, and 30 year Note announcements at 11 AM ET.
Machiavellian Bankruptcies - That's Smart.
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- France’s luxury yacht makers are riding out the recession in bankruptcy protection, irking European peers who say their state-sanctioned refuge skews competition.
Rodriguez Group, which built convicted conman Bernard Madoff’s vessel “Bull,” and Poncin Yachts SA have been using France’s liberal bankruptcy laws to stave off creditors and delay debt payments. Couach SA is in administration. The three companies are among France’s four publicly traded yacht makers and build boats that can cost as much as $40 million...
Cannes-based Rodriguez and Marans-based Poncin, France’s second- and fourth-largest listed boat makers, opted to use France’s “sauvegarde” law as demand for boats sank with the financial markets. The safeguard legislation, available for companies that aren’t yet insolvent, affords creditor protection for as long as 18 months and keeps management in place to renegotiate debt.
Re: 30-year T-bond auction today
Aha!
GOLD joins the list of miners taking serious hits
nice
edit: spoke too soon. bought back the calls for a quick 9% gain. Wait and see what POG does.
stratfor articles are propaganda
i used to study Stratfor articles for years before i realized they are tools of the conservative propaganda machine.
they have been calling for armed insurrenction in california by mexican separatists for years, they take any global conflict and explode it to suggest it will "destabilize the region, inviting NATO and american warships" but these dire predictions virtually never come true. they didnt call the recession/depression either but are like many now giving thoughtful commentary on how it all went down and obsfucating their lack of vision in predicting a downturn.
of course the US enjoys geography, but their reliance on geography is dwarfed by spending and earnings from non-agriculture/transport business. the US expends billions in subsidies to farming and agriculture and still imports mass amounts of foodstuffs from other nations while enacting tariffs against 3rd world states for their products, its wasteful and paradoxical.
its also a symptom of the current problem facing central banks: all nations want ot protect their local agriculture no matter how much they loose on it, so they give grants and subsidy, while charging tariffs to other state's imported goods. eventually each nation is pumping money to help beleaguered agriculture sectors that are facing high export/tariff costs, just like each nation printing money to keep their currency from appreciating to high against the others, killing exports... its a race to the bottom.
who suffers the most in each scenario? the lower-middle class and lower class people who spend more and more of their limited funds on food.
--------
as an aside canada is probally the most geographically gifted nation on the planet not just because of our abundant natural resources but because of our demographic capability to take advantage of what we have.
we may posses less arable land than the US, but we have 1/10 the population, and we have a much stronger more stable middle class and less social strife than our american counterparts. couple that with national health care and a stable politically median society and we have the size and resources of a russia but the sensibilities and population of a Sweeden.
the border benefits both nations as the we are the principal supplier of energy to the US, it accounts for something in the area of about %60-%70 of the total value of all goods exported to the US. the biggest problem in canada is our misguided notion that we need the US more than they need us, when in reality, most of our production is for domestic needs, and that most of our exports as noted are for energy to the US, something they not only need but need stable and reliable access to as they hope to wean off mid-east oil and mexico's reserves dwindle. there are few US banks in canada because of our system, so we are not hanging onto pipe dreams of jobs from them on that front.
most americans misunderstand the relationship as well assuming we are just pawns that would fall into the abyss without them. if the US can find all that oil and gas somewhere else without having to invade the region first, id like to see it.
FDIC delays program for banks to sell bad loans
Article - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
I am not surprised by this as I never thought the program would work as banks would not price their assets at a point where investors would buy them (low bid / high ask - no trade!). Additionally, if banks sold into this Legacy Loan Program it would not have provided capital (contrary to what the media puppet heads would tell you) unless they sold their assets for more than they were on there books at (which is unlikely). The program would have freed up some liquidity, but not increased capital. In fact, it would have more likely decreased capital as they would have had to sell at a price below the booked value and take a loss. That's why this program was DOA although the financial media got giddy about it. It's interesting though as this was one of the catalysts for the monster bank rally and now that the banks have been able to raise capital there is no need. Was this all in the script?
They fixed the OCLS pinball machine- it's back in play
...
OCLS - FDA Approval
oh happy day!!
:)
PETALUMA, Calif. (AP) -- Oculus Innovative Sciences Inc. said Thursday the Food and Drug Administration approved a prescription version of its Microcyn wound cleanser.
More Problems for Sweden and Latvia
Latvian devaluation raises concerns for Swedish banks
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
In research today, BNP Paribas looks at resurfacing concerns for Swedish banks about a Latvian devaluation. Analyst cite a Bloomberg article about Bengt Dennis, a former Swedish bank governor now adviser to the Latvian government, saying the country will need to devalue its currency. The timeline of such devaluation is however uncertain and it could happen tomorrow or in a few months, he adds.
As the economy deteriorates (GDP shrunk by 18% year-on-year per latest numbers), rumours about probable devaluation have multiplied. Such a move could however lead to huge losses for the largely Swedish-owned banking system. In the case of a devaluation, Swedbank, and to a lesser extent SEB, would be affected.
Re: Plan 'o Day
lol. Ok so I guess I'm going golfing today...
FAZ @ 4.69
...
TYP @ 22.58
...
Re: OCLS - FDA Approval
Hi! What's up!!! NOT my internet connection AGAIN. VB is correct, but what really happened is the FDA "expanded" the labeling of it's products. I suspected this, but this is just uninformed trading. I still think the FV price is about 4.00.
VB take your profits.
Re: 30-year T-bond auction today
I understand the FED is buying 2011/12 treasury securities today as well.
Re: Plan 'o Day
Hit 'em long and straight!
Watching Yamana and SLW for possible entry
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
Re: "...lack of a standing army..." The U.S. spends more on it's military than the next dozen or so countries in the world COMBINED.
It is why we cannot afford national health care, or modern mass transit.
Re: OCLS - FDA Approval
Mark,
done.
Rolling it over to UNG.
fingers frozen on selling PBR and SU and remaining Gold. Just can't do it....
vb
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
Now you're showing your biases Doc.
stable middle class Canada might have, but you're still small fry on the global stage. I give it to the US to clean up their wasteful and silly habits and get back on track being a central player on the world scene.
:p
Re: OCLS - FDA Approval
VB- Strap in...NG inventory report in about 25 minutes. Remember, this is a piggy bank for me. GL
Cara 100 Update (Final)
ADBE - Target Raised at Morgan Stanley to $34. Company is cutting costs and could benefit from a recovery in advertising spending. Overweight rating.
BRCM - estimates, target raised at UBS through 2010. Company is likely to grow faster than its peers over the near term and is reducing expenses. Neutral rating and new $27 price target.
GOOG - Target Raised at Citigroup to $580. Positive channel checks and cyclical factors point to earnings upside potential into 2010. Buy rating.
ORCL - Target Raised at UBS to $24. Expect the stock to trade well ahead of the June 23 quarterly report. Buy rating.
PG - 2010 estimates cut at Barclays because of higher marketing costs. Overweight rating and $60 price target.
SU - Target Raised at Credit Suisse to $48 from $43. Pending a merger with Petro-Canada and improvements in their oil sands and in-situ operations have led to the increase in numbers. Maintained Outperform rating.
Tough finding long entry
into PM stocks while the market for stocks is falling. Gotta wait out the storm and buy the desperation sometime later today...or tomorrow? Maybe Monday.
Hey anybody ever goto Buffalo Wild Wings? One opened near me and I'm wondering, are their wings fantastic or not so good?
NG
It's interesting to see UNG even and the futures still up .024
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
Les,
First of all, I love this country. I've had a good life and, until now, each generation of my family has been better off than the preceding one.
He lists many advantages we've enjoyed and most are still available to us. But he also has left out a number of gigantic changes.
• Population size: In my life time our official population has more than doubled.
• We need to accept the fact that we've added millions of illegal, undocumented — or whatever — people, who although hard working, are less educated. (Many are receiving benefits.)
• Labor intensive work is diminishing due to automation, new tech, etc.
• Our population is aging — creating a massive load on the younger segment.
• We have become a country which makes far less that can be exported in exchange for imports which have ballooned. Last I read we're 2/3 service workers and this is growing — especially government workers.
The question is whether all of the advantages he lists can overcome the expansion of these new burdens.
JOBS should be the number one issue today and they continue to be lost.
While talk goes on about health care, education, (not what most can retrain for) the thrust continues to be protecting the financial sector and supporting those with failing business models.
Time is not on the our side.
Re: OCLS - FDA Approval
vanillabean - Congrats on your OCLS!
Re: Cara 100 Update (Final)
SU
wow, more great news. It is trading right now at 33.40.
thanks Bullhunter!
SU - Target Raised at Credit Suisse to $48 from $43. Pending a merger with Petro-Canada and improvements in their oil sands and in-situ operations have led to the increase in numbers. Maintained Outperform rating.
Re: OCLS - FDA Approval
thanks CP!! :)
Re: Tough finding long entry
Buffalo Wild Wings - Why not? Never been but hear they're good. The "best" wings I've ever had was in Buffalo, soon as they set them on the table my eyes started watering as if from a highly volatile chemical spill. Too hot to touch, let alone eat!
Re: Tough finding long entry
How about Palladium stocks ,Shark? Pall moving up at moment, am in SWC at 7.13
Knowing when to sell
I would like to start a conversation regarding when to sell a stock that has been going higher and higher on very good news and potentially good future news.
Right now, I'm in a stock of a company called SpongeTech (SPNG.ob). It is an OTC stock that I bought at .0187. They sell a unique patented product that has soap and wax included in the sponge, making it easier and less expensive to wash cars than via traditional methods (hand car wash or machine car wash). They also sell sponges for pets and are coming out with their very own licensed SpongeBob SquarePants sponge for children's baths. They also announced their intentions of moving to the Nasdaq Capital Market (for small cap companies).
The stock has made a series of higher highs and higher lows. The initial burst was in late March on heavy volume, moving from roughly .007 to .03. After volume tailed off the price did too, moving back down to .013. I bought during this fade. It has since bursted higher twice in the past month, clearing its previous 52 week high yesterday and it's up another 10% today.
My question is when you have a company that is growing very rapidly and has great news, when do you know from a technical perspective that the run is over? Fundamentally, I can make an argument for the stock to be worth roughly .20 a share. They have 722 Million shs o/s and are now doing a run rate of at least $15 Million in revenue per month. With a 12% net operating margin, you can assume they are making $1.8Million a month or $20 Million a year. 10 times this is $200 Million divided by 722 Million shs = roughly $0.25 or so.
I'm trying to relate this to companies like Apple that experienced significant growth and as it turns out the best thing to do was to just hold the stock for the past 6 years rather than trading in and out. I think this company (SPNG) will experience additional growth with the release of the SpongeBob products in the next 30 days or so and there was talk by the company of retiring some of their shares that were issued by them in exchange for cash (issued when they were growing because they were unable to obtain cheap financing during the past couple of years due to tough lending standards), which would result in a higher price.
Anyway, any insight would be great.
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
Grym,
I'm WAY more worried about the perfectly legal citizens of this country that are a hell of a lot less educated than a lot of their "illegal" counterparts.
I dare you to ask one of those people appearing on Jaywalking to figure out how to mix simple farm chemical solutions. Kaimu reminds us how valuable farm land is. It has no value to someone incapable of extracting it's wealth.
Believe me, I've been in the horticulture biz, my wife is a Washington State Master Gardener (we call it master poisoner) and the average American would starve in short order if it weren't for McDonalds, Burger King, WalMart or Safeway. Not so our illegal migrant workers. There is educated, like life skills, and then there is Paris Hilton educated.
Let's not confuse the two. We are a nation of Paris Hiltons.
MFI.TO technical help please
If any of you chartists have a moment to take a look at MFI.TO, I'd sure appreciate your help in understanding what it means when the price rides the moving averages and the MACD stays stuck in neutral for weeks and weeks. Thanks in advance.
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
Chuckle of the day ! thanks
Question For WGW Shareholders
Did anyone else let their WGW shares ride into NGD shares?
My NGD shares are not showing up in my brokerage account. Anyone else having the same problem?
I have a call in to my broker, but as usual, his head is emptier than Britney Spears knickers drawer.
Wings
The best. Dial 911 or have a defibrillator.
A couple packs of the foster Farms wings from Costco (about ten to twelve for us old dudes) arrange them as you like (I tuck the end of the wing under the upper part to form a triangle) paint em' with a little butter on a no stick cookie pan, bake for 1 hour at 425F. Mix a third of a cup melted butter with a half a cup Frank's Louisiana Hot sauce. Pour over hot wings in bowl, toss to cover, garnish with celery and carrots and blue cheese or ranch dressing and enjoy.
Exited the Randgold short
Mixed signals in the gold market with Gold moving back up a bit even as the $USD shows moderate strength. Exited the trade with enough for a couple Big Macs and back to th sidelines.
HNU.to-> opening @ $USD 5.03
...
UNG
All I gotta say is 'ouch' :)
UNG@13.50
........
Re: Gold price
"WHY didn't I hang on to the 10.76 Yamana I bought and sold yesterday?...... WHY?"
I'm pretty sure that's one you can take home to mother, doubt you'll find an urge to chew your arm off in the morning if you buy on bad hair days. At least you know when it's time to start chewing, an important concept.
Re: UNG@13.50
Adding @ 13.44
Re: Question For WGW Shareholders
Same experience for me, Bull Hunter. I accepted the default conversion to NewGold shares, but my account still shows the WGI shares, (mine are on the Toronto stock exchange).
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
les,
we arent comparing who's more of a elephant in the room. of course the US is, my issue is how a nation like canada unto itself is much more of a player than it perhaps realizes simply becauase of our abundance of resources for our population size.
AUY
long
NG Update
NG storage increased by 124bcf/d versus expectations of 115bcf/d for the week ending May 29.
Re: UNG@13.50
Nice stab at the UNG now. Price action looking like it may have just been a ferocious shakeout.
Re: Wings
I'll take the blue cheese, heavy on the 40-Weight!
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
hmm, but that is the thrust of the article that we are referring to. Conservative and distorted it may be, but that is the nature of political theory and practice as it stands today.
The paradigm of human security and development, which you've summarily outlined, is a compelling one, yet still slow to gain traction in the minds of the men who run the show.
Re: HNU.to-> opening @ $USD 5.03/ Off @ $USD 5.24
...
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
"The paradigm of human security and development, which you've summarily outlined, is a compelling one, yet still slow to gain traction in the minds of the men who run the show."
In other words we agree that most of what we're fed is BS and there's a cost associated regardless of where it comes from or the means used to obtain the information. Just because we pay extra for it doesn't cleanse the spin, regardless of what we're taught to believe.
market closes
I am wondering if those who are buying in volume near the market close are then counting on bringing more buyers in during the next day after the media spin "markets pare losses", etc.) and sell during the day and then get ready to do it all over again. In other words are we seeing a massive buy the dips strategy.
I am also wondering if this isn't a set up for a sell off at the end one of these days now that many are trying to play the upswing on the close.
Re: Knowing when to sell
Keep in mind that penny stocks can and do plunge at any time for no reason, and may then drift lower for long spells. Share prices may also suffer from unexpected dilution. If you have a nice profit you might consider selling a percentage of your position. If you're long term bullish you might place a GTC bid way under the market to pick up a bargain if she takes a dive. GL
Noront - NOT.V - NOSOF
Does anyone follow or own this stock? It's been dead money for a long time and just wondering if I should sell and just take the loss. I bought it because at the time I thought it was one of the better junior gold companies. It hasn't moved at all even with the increase in POG. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks in advance
USD, OXY, S
Yes, yesterday, Asian CBs all made statements regarding support of the dollar as the world's currency. Yet, I agree with Chuck Butler at the Daily Pfennig that "they were behooved to do so by Geither" (as he visited China).
On another front: Not a done deal, but if follow through, it's a very small part of that incremental erosion discussed previously.
WSJ Asia Mkts update: "Malaysia's prime minister said China and his country are considering conducting their trade in Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit, joining a rising number of nations thinking of phasing out the dollar."
*************************
Yesterday's trades
Sold Aug 55 OXY puts @ $1.70
Bought S @ $4.83 for IRA
Re: Knowing when to sell
With a 2 bagger penny stock, I'd sell the initial investment and let the house money ride if you have conviction in the company. Sell the rest at your leisure. This will make your "investment" much more "fun" knowing you have no capital at risk.
auction announcement
Just moments away. Gold up +13 on very good volume ahead of the results.
Someone is buying the S&P in anticipation, also.
Re: auction announcement
Dave
Those are announcements, not auctions. Announcements provide date of auction and deadlines for competitive and non competitive bids.
I don't believe there are any auctions today.
Re: UNG@13.50
took the single.
Off at 14.00
Silver @ 15.69
This morning premarket I saw silver trading at about $15.10. What a difference a couple hours makes!
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
RE:>In other words we agree that most of what we're fed is BS and there's a cost associated regardless of where it comes from or the means used to obtain the information.
Yet Paris Hilton educated or not, the combined force of the US population, both young and old (who are obliged to work increasingly longer now), if appropriately managed (as opposed to the directive of "consume at all cost" that has been the siren call of Washington the last 25+ years), combined with the attributes of US territory, should be capable of great things again.
The US population learned to garden during the war. They can learn it out of financial/social/health necessities again.
Re: UNG@13.50
No way, man. That's a double for the time frame. Nice work.
Re: UNG@13.50
Mark I debated calling it a double....thanks for the confirmation! :)
Re: Knowing when to sell / Sponge Bath?
When holding is uncomfortable it's time to take some off? The more you know about the product potential and future demand, the better your decision making process?
Use logic, not emotion?
Re: Silver @ 15.69
Billy, its following gold & gold is putting up a fight. Whichever way gold settles (up above 1000 or down from here), there will be some money to be made. Either move would be substantial, i think. Lets see
Re: auction announcement
Now I'm confused! Thanks... :)
I thought auction announcements meant auction results. But no.
3 dates. Announcement date, auction date, and settlement date.
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt...
Auction dates are June 10 (10 year) ad June 11 (30 year).
So why is gold going up then? Maybe the weaker buck?
It sure isn't auction announcement dates :)
Re: TYP @ 22.58/ Off @ 22.58
flat
Re: auction announcement
30-Yr Bond Announcement
Auction Date- June 11, 2009
http://tinyurl.com/osfkqr
Re: FAZ @ 4.69/ Off @ 4.52
...
Re: auction announcement
UNG Vs. TBT- My heavy weight battle....top of the third, UNG -2.89%/TBT +2.89%...better go to work and make some money today. Good luck everyone.
Re: Knowing when to sell
I'm in the habit of setting actual stops (mental ones were too often overlooked).
I used to set at 10% below the market price, but today I begin at 5%. I divide the total number of share into 1/4 segments with each at a lower price.
I hardly ever set an upside stop.
(I should note I am seldom a short term trader.)
SRS @ 17.37
...
Re: In other news
Wall St. Journal reports the failure of the Latvian bond auction.
Forbes article this morning:
http://www.forbes.com/2009/06/03/latvia-sweden-eco...
Re: Knowing when to sell
actual stops...
I use them too, not usually to sell, usually I will decide I want to sell remove the stop and just sell, but ya gotta love the discipline involved, if not the actual executions.
Re: Question For WGW Shareholders
Britney's knickers drawer called me back. If anyone is wondering, share transfer is tentatively set for June 10th.
Re: Question For WGW Shareholders
Me also, though IB is good. I will contact if no change though
Re: Knowing when to sell
I use very strict rules for selling. When a stock completes an ABC up pattern, I get out because I see many stocks going into a prolonged consolidation or correction after an ABC pattern completes. Same thing for an ABC down in a correction.
The ABC on SPNG is .006 (A), .03 (B), and .0128 (C) which takes you up to a target of .0368 (D). This stock exceeded the .0368 target when it hit .056 on 5/19.
Also, this stock went up from .006 to .07 today for a move of 1000%. This is a huge move. I would be selling some of this today because it went above .056 high on volume that was less than the 198 million on the day it had the .056 high. I don't trust stocks that move up on air (less volume than a prior swing point). SPNG needs more than 198 million shares to convince me that it wants to go much higher above .056.
I would take back the principle and some profit and let the rest of it ride.
But, it is your money and I am not making any recommendations.
I never pay attention to the "good news" because I don't trust news anymore.
Price and volume is the only thing I look at, nothing else.
Re: Silver @ 15.69
Shiva, thanks for the insight. It does seem that gold and silver have been "carpooling" lately.
I am sitting tight on some physical silver I bought in April. It feels good to have some of the real thing around and not to just worry about scalping the ETF. Like buying some insurance that isn't an IOU! Plus these 2009 Silver Maple leafs friggin' gorgeous!
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
Craig,
"I'm WAY more worried about the perfectly legal citizens of this country that are a hell of a lot less educated than a lot of their "illegal" counterparts."
My point is we have a large number of people who are not likely to benefit from job retraining to the types of jobs we now have to offer. And, IMO, jobs are the crucial issue today.
While those you are are talking about may well be more at home in agriculture, so much of our ag business is now big business and far less labor intensive. I'll grant you they may be able to do a better job gardening for — if they have access to land.
I am very concerned about the average American. Jay Leno asked a few simple questions recently —
Q: Who made the first US flag?
A: Betty Ford
Q: In what country is the Panama Canal located?
A: Don't know.
Jay: In Panama
Q: Where is the Great Wall of China?
A: Panama?
That's all I remember, but some pretty pathetic answers.
Re: Gold price
Shark, I fell off my chair with your remark, "...If any of the female Caristas live in the tri-state area I would be pleased to get together for a little trading related wine event thing. Let me know."
Pray tell, after all the abuse you put on women here, why would they care to get more of it face to face?
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
"...if appropriately managed "
And when was the last time this happened?
:-)
Re: auction announcement
Here is a summary of today's announcement...
The Treasury just announced the details of next week auction schedule. They will sell $35 billion three year notes on Tuesday. That is a new issue.
The 10 year is a reopening of the current 10 year for $ 19 billion. The auction is next Wednesday.
The 30 year is a reopening of the current Long Bond for $ 11 billion. The auction is next Thursday.
Re: auction announcement
I believe gold is gaining because 1) The central banks intervened for yesterday's dog and pony show (jawboning the $US and maybe some behind the scenes wizardry? and 2) The FED is buying treasury securities today (at the market with who's money?).
I'm probably only half right, as usual.
Lack of volume is still prevalent
sort of like playing soccer with only 1 team on the field.
"How many points should we score today?"
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
I saw it too...and the first response of Betty Ford was from TWO young ladies, not just one. They brainstormed to get the wrong answer.
American Idol smart, they think a Classic is an old Coke.
The only reason we would have any possibility of too many ag workers would only be if naturalized American citizens actually would be forced into stoop labor. Maybe if we really hit bottom, a depression with soup lines, but i'm not holding my breath. I know my farmer friends have trouble finding necessary labor these days, so the rumor of some oversupply is just that. Same locally for brush pickers (used in all those floral arrangements). It used to be Native Americans, then young people in the 70's and 80's, now Hispanic men pick brush.
Re: Noront - NOT.V - NOSOF
Grasshopper,
I'm in a similar position re NOT. I decided months ago that I would hold this one. The geo reports are very good but THE problem, IMO, is the issue of whether or not the Ontario government is going to permit the development of the Ring of Fire essentially because of environmental concerns, and all the while there are intrusions of politically-active native groups ( called First Nations in Canada ) into the political process in search of royalties and other easy-money results. However, both Marten Falls and Webequie First Nations have recently entered long-term development agreements with mining interests and native groups are far from being strongly opposed to resource development. They are seeking some social equity. Yesterday, NOT appointed a new CEO with excellent creds so I am also willing to follow Bill's advice to "Bet the jockey". A government report regarding economic development of this region is about to be announced and there will likely be a LONG process of establishing the development plan but the rewards may be immense. NOT has made a footprint in the area and may be grandfathered from restrictions on future land use. Then again, they may be shut out and I'll end up with another KRY in my dead zone! DYODD.
Re: Noront - NOT.V - NOSOF
Well, Grasshopper, what do you think of your Kung Fu teacher David Carradine apparently suiciding in Bangkok?
Now if you are interested in Noront, you need to ask somebody what's happening in the McFaulds play. An adjacent property at Freewest looks very promising according to a release that came out two days ago.
I know the CEO of Freewest very well. Why don't you call him and ask? He'll chat you up. He's one of the real good guys in the business of stock promotion and operations management. His number is at the end of the release.
FREEWEST INTERSECTS 34.1% Cr2O3 OVER 174 METRES AT BLACK THOR ON ITS 100%-OWNED McFAULDS PROPERTY, NORTHERN ONTARIO HIGHLIGHTS: • Drill hole BT-09-37 yields 34.1% Cr2O3 over 174.0 metres from the Black Thor chromite occurrence • The 174-metre intercept contains 3 higher-grade sections including 40.4% Cr2O3 over 38.0 metres, 43.1% Cr2O3 over 64.0 metres and 41.6% Cr2O3 across 35.0 metres • Twenty seven (27) of thirty one (31) drill holes completed over a 2.6 kilometre strike length at Black Thor, have intersected significant chromite mineralization, representing a success rate of 87% Montreal, Quebec, Canada, June 2, 2009 – Freewest Resources Canada Inc. (FWR:TSX-V) (the “Company”) is pleased to announce additional assay results recently obtained from the Company’s Black Thor chromite occurrence on its 100%-owned McFaulds property (the “Property”). The Property, consisting of 1,036 hectares, comprises one of three properties in which the Company is currently exploring, on its own and in strategic joint-venture agreement arrangements in the “Ring of Fire” metals district. BLACK THOR DIAMOND DRILLING RESULTS: Up to the spring break-up, when Freewest temporarily halted its drilling operations, 31 drill holes have been completed on the Black Thor chromite occurrence, comprising 10,908 metres of drilling. Chromite analyses have subsequently been received for all of the 31 drill holes as summarized in Table 1. As such, it represents a complete list of significant chromite assay intervals up to the latest cessation of diamond drilling. Since the last release of diamond drilling results documenting Black Thor mineralization, up to and including drill hole BT-09-17 (see Freewest News Release of March 25, 2009), an additional 18 drill holes were completed. The highlight of recently received drill results and of all of the drilling completed to date is the broad high-grade zone of chromite mineralization intersected in drill hole BT-09-37. Hole 37 comprises an upper zone of mineralization yielding 34.1% Cr2O3 over a core length of 174 metres that contains 3 higher-grade intervals; 40.4% Cr2O3 over 38.0 metres, 43.1% Cr2O3 over 64.0 metres and 41.6% Cr2O3 across 35.0 metres. In addition to the upper zone, a lower zone of chromite mineralization was also intersected in the same drill hole, returning 31.5% Cr2O3 across 25.0 metres (including 40.1% Cr2O3 over 10.0 metres). Company management is of the view that the pronounced increased thicknesses of the chromite encountered on this portion of the Black Thor occurrence, are indicative of proximity to a possible feeder zone, which would propagate such robust zones of mineralization. Clearly, this portion of the mineralized zone will receive the highest priority, when diamond drilling resumes. Other recent significant drill intercepts returned from the Black Thor occurrence include 40.2 Cr2O3 over 25.0 metres (CS09- 19), 41.9% Cr2O3 over 14.0 metres (BT-09-20), 40.3% Cr2O3 across 31.0 metres in drill hole BT-09-23, 36.2% Cr2O3 over 22.0 metres (BT-09-24), 38.3% Cr2O3 across 23.0 metres (BT-09-33) and 41.3% Cr2O3 over 11.0 metres in drill hole BT-09- 50. Currently, the Black Thor chromite occurrence has been drilled over an intermittent strike length of 2600 metres (from drill sections 500N to 3100N) and to a maximum vertical depth of about 350 metres. It currently remains open-ended along strike and to depth (Map 1). A residual gravity anomaly closely associated with Black Thor, indicates a further 1000 metres of potential strike length for chromite mineralization, in addition to the 2600 metres already defined. Map 1 comprises part of this news release and is posted on the Freewest website at www.freewest.com Preliminary chrome to iron ratios (Cr:Fe) at Black Thor are 2.04 for drill intercepts averaging greater than 40% Cr2O3 (as high as 2.27) and 1.81 for drill intersections averaging greater than 30% Cr2O3 (as high as 2.16). Such ratios compare favorably to those seen in established chromite mining camps globally, including deposits in the Bushveldt Igneous Complex (1.60) in South Africa and the Kemi deposit (1.53) located in Finland. Equally encouraging to the strong widths and grades encountered at Black Thor, is the high frequency of intersecting significant chromite mineralization in diamond drilling over its current 2.6 kilometre strike length. Of the total 31 drill holes completed at Black Thor, 27 intersected significant chromite mineralization, representing a success rate of 87%. Notably, two of the 4 holes that missed, BT-09-21 and BT-09-40, were drilled at shallow depths on drill sections 1600N and 500N, respectively. Deeper holes completed on these sections both returned significant chromite, including 33.2% Cr2O3 over 29.0 metres in drill hole BT- 09-22, drilled beneath BT-09-21 and 39.0% Cr2O3 over 8.0 metres in drill hole BT-09-42, and drilled beneath BT-09-40. The lack of mineralization in the shallow holes coupled with mineralization present in deeper holes may be explained by possible plunges or rakes to chromite mineralization. Additional drilling is clearly warranted to fully test this structural premise. FREEWEST MOVING FORWARD: Currently, all of the assay, diamond drilling, geological, geophysical and geochemical data is being compiled and interpreted by the Company. This will allow Freewest to prioritize drilling targets in preparation for the onset of drilling, anticipated for late June. A minimum of 3 and likely 4 drill rigs will be employed upon resumption of drilling, with at least 2 testing the Black Thor chromite occurrence and the other rigs testing the Black Label chromite occurrence, the F2 nickel-copper-platinum group element (PGE) occurrence as well as several nickel-copper-PGE targets situated near the base of the ultramafic intrusion. The emphasis on Black Thor drilling will be to continue to expand the limits of chromite mineralization beyond the 2600 metres and also to fill-in the current 200-metre drill spacing at more detailed 100-metre centres, along the same strike length. The immediate goal of all of this, is to complete sufficient drilling at optimal spacing enabling the Company to complete a National Instrument 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate as soon as practically possible. In concert with the major upcoming diamond drilling program, the Company will complete a preliminary assessment on chromite metallurgy in an effort to refine the various styles of mineralization identified at Black Thor and Black Label and to provide estimates of the quality of the final chromite concentrates derived from same. Additionally, the Company will tender for the completion of an environmental base-line study, a soil and groundwater investigation conducted to establish the baseline level of potential contaminants in soils and groundwater beneath a concerned site. INDEPENDENT QUALITY CONTROL AND ANALYTICAL PROTOCOL: A thorough quality control program has been implemented for the McFaulds project including grouping samples into batches of 35 into which are added 2 certified reference material standards, 2 field blanks composed of barren drill core and a field duplicate. Coarse reject and pulp duplicates also from part of the Quality Control program. The Company is confident that all assays reported in this news release have passed rigorous control guidelines as set out by Freewest’s independent Quality Assurance/Quality Control person. All samples were submitted to Activation Labs (Actlabs) of Ancaster, Ontario for analyses. The samples were analyzed for multielements using a 4-acid digestion followed by ICP analyses. Gold, platinum and palladium were assayed by the Fire Assay method on 30 grams of prepared sample. For higher grade chromium analyses (greater than 1%), the samples are analyzed by the Neutron Activation method wherein they are irradiated prior to final reading. This method yields analyses in percent for elemental chromium, Cr2O3 and elemental iron. Additional information on the analytical techniques employed can be accessed on the Actlabs website at www.actlabsint.com. Additional quality control measures have also been recently adopted for Cr and Fe including the insertion of a certified reference material SARM 8, purchased from Mintek in South Africa. This quality control method provides a check for high-grade chrome samples yielded by INAA analyses provided by Actlabs. Donald Hoy, P. Geo. (Ontario),Vice President of Exploration and a Director of Freewest Resources Canada Inc. is the Qualified Person (under National Instrument 43-101) on the McFaulds project and is responsible for the preparation of this news release. Freewest is a well-financed mineral exploration corporation with over C$3.0 million in working capital. It is actively exploring for gold, base-metals and chromite within eastern Canada.
Corporate information can be accessed on the Internet at www.freewest.com.
Freewest’s shares are listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol FWR.
For further information please contact:
Mackenzie I. Watson President and CEO Tel: (514) 878-3551 or 1-888-878-3551
female Caristas by the Shark
C'mon Bill, be fair. Here in Mazatlan ladies thrive on guys like Shark.
Of course there are a lot of widows here.
PFE@14.65
.....trading a buy/hold/sell/buy/hold/sell stock. :)
Re: female Caristas by the Shark
Just calling it like I see it. I fell off my chair.
But I do hope the shark can swim to Grand Bahama in January.
Re Cara Bahamas 2010, it will definitely be around the 3rd Monday in January at Our Lucaya Resort. We are working on final arrangements and will post any day.
Grand Bahama Jan 2010
Wanted to go to the last one, sorry I missed it.
Will be there next time. Hey, why not invite Mike W., think he's gone from RBC.
Re: Lack of volume is still prevalent
NYU,
From a technical perspective, I think the market is acting reluctant to return to bull mode until we can try to close that nasty looking S&P chart gap at 919 that was created on Friday rocket close and Mondays subsequent gap up. But I could see us continuing up without closing that gap if the $USD strength abates and weakness moves back in. Sector rotation seems to be continuing in full force even on down moves........
GOLD & MINERS
I have traded miners (GDX, KGC, UXG etc...) well this year for 3 to 5% gainers trading price action alone. However, I have missed the big moves by selling early. I would like to get back into some of these, but knowing that Bill sold his shares Friday and may or may not get in any day now, I wonder what will be the deciding factor for a re-entry. I want to be long for the year in miners, but I hate to get slammed downward by an early entry. What are others doing with there miners? Probably has been posted, but I have missed it. Thanks in advance. I almost bought back some KGC yesterday on the spike down....but gold/miners often have continuation of moves and I was hoping for a better entry price today. Of course, that didnt happen.
Re: Gold price
Bill,
Rather than a glib answer, let me say first of all that gold is really making a move here. Also, any female fan of yours would no doubt be a fan of mine, as we possess personality traits which, while distinct, are entirely complimentary. Plus, I am a fun, romantic, loving fuy who loves a good meal, a good movie and of course, we have a shared interest in this thing of ours:)
Re: female Caristas by the Shark
Bill,
It never hurts to ask!
Bob
Re: Lack of volume is still prevalent
NYU, whats the word on your SPY purchase last night - still holding for end of day today or wagering for tomorrow?
Re: Lack of volume is still prevalent
I sold this am. Again its a small position. I plan to repeat everyday until it stops working. Might use SSO instead of SPY.
Re: Knowing when to sell
teamonfuego - There must be a thousand ways to approach the subject, here's yet another mechanism:
http://tinyurl.com/o5szyx
I'd Call That a Stimulus Package
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/06/stimulus-packag...
Re: Gold price
"Better to inflate the bejabbers out of everything and save the structure of the economy than to keep the "integrity" of the dollar and make it quite irrelevant due to economic death-of-nation."
This is the full circle normalization process that inevitably occurs from running massive trade deficits. This HAS to happen, otherwise it's not free trade.
Plan to sell off Calif. landmarks is questioned
http://rurl.org/1ltc
I'm not entirely shocked that this was proposed. Today California, tomorrow the US? Anyone want to buy the Golden Gate Bridge (hint: you could recoup the money with higher tolls - wouldn't even take an act by the legislature to raise the toll, either!)
Re: GOLD & MINERS
If you are bullish on the miners and intend to hold it for at least a year, the price you pay today will matter very little. I know it sucks if you buy today and the miners tank 10% next week. Perhaps just spread out your purchases over a period or based on price confirmation.
UNG geniuses
Heh you guys who bought UNG at 13.30 and 13.50 are looking like geniuses now!
I just hung on grimly through the process. :)
It's showing some pretty darned good support today I think.
Re: Plan to sell off Calif. landmarks is questioned
If the government ends up guaranteeing the Muni-bonds of states like Cali (and there is legislation now being proposed/debated) will MUB and the like see a spike? I am considering opening another position in Muni's. Last ride was via FHIGX from Dec to mid Feb for nice gain. Collected a fat yield too.
Re: GOLD & MINERS
I'm in agreement with justin. The long-term charts are pointing to very large moves. This is after all the Great Reflation.
Re: UNG geniuses
Have to say I got luck on this one. Made a mental note yesterday that I would buy UNG today if it dropped to $13.50. When I first checked the price this morning, it was at $13.54. By the time I logged into my brokerage and entered a market order. I got it at $13.408, pretty much the low of the day!
Better lucky than good.
Money doesn’t grow on trees
Money doesn’t grow on trees for most of America. We sit down at our kitchen tables and write out checks to the phone-company, electric company, credit card-company, mortgage-company, and auto finance company every month. We clip coupons and go to the grocery store every week to put food in the mouths of our children. This is what our parents did before us.
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
Dr. Cosa, can you produce the link where Friedman predicts armed insurrection in California? I live in Austin, as does Friedman (Stratfor CEO). I've read his books and see him around in social situations once in a while. I've never read or heard him say anything like this or anything else so blatantly provocative.
If anything, my impression is that he tends to be pretty middle-of-the-road without much of a political axe to grind.
Always willing to be educated though...
Re: SRS @ 17.37/ Off @ 17.64
...
Re: SRS @ 17.37/ Off @ 17.64
nice call.
Re: GOLD & MINERS
Pillzilla, I have the same question.
I think the starting point for me is the daily RSI 7 below 30/40 on GG as an example.
Re: You Know When They Say
You know when the say that war is diplomacy by other means that maybe politicking is another word for taking advantage of those least capable of defending themselves.
My concern over politics in Canada is that its taking a nasty turn for the worse as deliberations over pensions in parliament will be determined by fait accompli in the private sector using a court mandate, which will probably extend to the public sector as well.
The appointment of Judge Farley in the ongoing pensions saga at Air Canada has to be a foreboding sign of things to come, at least for the pensioners:
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1662316
Bankruptcy may be the the hue and cry here, but there are other forms of restructuring, once the gavel comes down over the pensions.
Re: GOLD & MINERS
Bill - The long-term charts are pointing to very large moves. This is after all the Great Reflation.
Sometimes I wish I could be a Rip Van Winkle investor. Go to sleep for a year, and wake up to see all my dreams of reflation and gold appreciation realized without any of the intervening doubts and stress! :)
Thanks for the reminder to keep the long term view in mind.
Re: In other news
By my count, this is 3. There was a German auction that did not raise all the money it was allotted for, there was a UK auction (long term, not inflation-protected) that failed. Three establishes a pattern.
Re: UNG geniuses
UNG’s increase in volume alone shows that this ETF is on more people’s radar right now. However, ETF hasn’t participated much in the rally and is barely off from its yearly lows. Until we see both the March and May highs broken, I’d still wait for severe oversold conditions to develop like we saw back in late May before making any attempt to bottom fish.
SPNG
Took half my position off at .069 for +70% gain....letting the rest ride like a moon shot hopefully.
Re: UNG geniuses
UNG geniuses, Nat gas traders may want to check today's posting on Si02's site.
http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/
vinod--agree. There may be some minute to minute spikes, but bottom line: It's too early.
Re: In other news
I have good friends in Latvia and have been to Riga many times, it is sad to see the problems that HB&B have caused in many countries with their greed.
Latvian property prices plunged the most in the world in the first quarter as the economy fell into the steepest recession in the European Union, a survey by Global Property Guide showed.
“Latvia is in surprisingly deep trouble,” yesterday’s Global Property Guide report said. “Average apartment prices in Riga declined an astonishing 50 percent over a year earlier to 747 euros ($1,058) per square meter, with a 30 percent drop during the quarter.”
Latvia’s economy shrank 18 percent last quarter and the country is relying on a bailout from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission to avert a default. The government is struggling to push through budget cuts to rein in the deficit so it can continue to receive its international loan as the recession deepens.
http://tinyurl.com/qdedaw
Re: UNG geniuses
RE:>UNG geniuses, Nat gas traders may want to check today's posting on Si02's site.
cool. F57, good call. Bought yer 8/13 OCT UNG call spread. Sick of mucking around with daily volatility.
Re: GOLD & MINERS
Another observation about the recent advance in miners is that although the price increase has been impressive percentage wise and pretty much all technical indicators are at overbought levels, the price rise has been fairly orderly, i.e. no parabolic moves. This keeps existing holders uncomfortable knowing a big correction may come any day, and at the same time frustrates potential buyers waiting for the big pullback that never came.
In the intermediate term, my biggest concern about holding the miners is the possibility of a second deflation scare. We all know what happened last year. I need to figure out a plan to mitigate that risk.
Re: In other news
I second the feeling john... Riga is amazing city (old part of it particularly), Yurmala's towns are lovely and Seigulda(sp?) hiking trails and ruins of old castles are unforgettable. Sad to see Latvia struggling so much.
Re: Plan to sell off Calif. landmarks is questioned
Pillzilla
Keep in mind the Build America Bonds (BAB) providing capital to states to fund infrastructure projects, allows muni bond issuers to tap the larger taxable bond market. This interest earned by the buyer is not tax exempt and probably won't qualify for a tax free muni fund. However, rates can be attractive especially to traditional investment grade buyers.
http://tinyurl.com/ooou7v
AUY
Ka-CHING!
ITS THE MONEY STUPID
ALOHA !!
You will not get any arguments from me that America has a great deal more potential. The problem is ... ITS THE MONEY STUPID!
Besides what good are resources if you cannot develop them? America used to export oil ...
Come on ... Les ... Dr Cosa ... have you guys ever employed anyone? Have you ever employed an American? Have you ever employed a full blown indoctrinated UNION worker? Have you been inside the Public Works system? Do you know any US Senators? Have you ever lived at East 333 E 69th Street NY, NY? Have you ever lived with Mexicans? Do you speak Spanish?
You know Americans are no different than any other humans in the World. All humans ADAPT OR DIE! That's how its been since cave man days. The American people faced with a Third World lifestyle will move on. What choice would any of us have? I have been to many Third World countries and to be honest I would LIVE THERE! I have told my wife many times that I would not mind living in the Bahamas or Fiji or Mexico one bit ... or any other South American country ... Brazil looks good. Heck I lived in Venezuela for most of my childhood ... A Third World USA would not be the end of the World for America. We have been moving in that direction for decades now. Every generation that is born struggles more and more to keep up with the prior generations lifestyle. Have you guys not noticed that? I have ...
So it has nothing to do with Americans and America's geographical location. It has a LOT more to do with America's leaders and those who control our monetary system.
America's never ending addiction to SPEND and DEBT is the problem. All the past and present malinvestment has never been allowed to be expunged. How many times has the US government intervened for the banking system? Now real estate? Even Lord Volcker admits that in 1980 the US Dollar was staring into the abyss. He even admits that he should have controlled the price of gold more aggressively. People like Volcker and the big spenders in CONgress ARE the problem ... period!! None of them operate by anything remotely close to high standards of fiscal responsibility or social equity. They operate by STACKING THE DECK! They spend their entire lives maneuvering into positions of power and then they cash those chips in!! ANTE UP!! Its INTERVENTION at its finest ... Nobody does INTERVENTION like the US FED ... they have had 96 years to perfect their craft!
I keep showing my menus to people ... Its the simplest way to see how poorly the US political system and the US FED have "managed" America and America's money. A 1939 US SENATE menu or a 1970 PlayBoy Club menu is a REPORT CARD for the US CONgress and the US FED. I give them both an F! And I vote that way ...
I am still on record saying the US Dollar is headed for a monetary collapse. It has defaulted twice in the past under much more austere circumstances. This TOO BIG TO FAIL mentality that you guys coddle will fail you. Ask a former LEH shareholder how that works! Are there any Brits still alive who knew Churchill? Hows the British Empire? Has the sun set yet?
There is no wealth today in America ... only DEBT! What wealth that is left was not accumulated over the last 38 years(since 1971). We are spending our Founding Fathers wealth. How much for the Golden Gate?
Is that you Thomas Jefferson?
ITS THE MONEY STUPID!!!
SRS @ 17.15
...
hnu.to
No time to post real time but doubled exposure at $5.8 and just it took off again at $6.35.
Loaded CNQ.to at $63.3 and waiting for $1.00
Nicely setting up
for breakout tomorrow over May highs, see daily
EBS
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
kaimu,
What prompted your move to the islands when you left the states instead of living in another country.....you may have mentioned this in the past but I was just curious.
Regarding the dollar, I was at a breakfast this morning for a fund companies "Road Show", one of the questions was their view on the dollar. He responded by saying it was one of the things that kept them up at night.
WAGES
ALOHA !!
BLS data for wages that was released today to NO FANFARE ... The FANFARE that moved the DOW was for the dip in unemployment claims. Meanwhile if you read the hidden details like I do you see that there has been some massive hour cuts for American workers for the Q1 2009. That reflects perfectly with my collapse scenario for the US PAYROLL WITHHOLDING TAX REVENUES. I report the TAX REVENUE AND US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT info in an article every Friday on the Dos Passos Table for guest speakers at GATA(LeMetropole Cafe)on behalf of CTAB.
What stuck out was this report on the MANUFACTURING SECTOR:
"Manufacturing
Productivity decreased at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the
manufacturing sector during the first quarter of 2009, reflecting
a 21.7 percent decrease in output and a 19.5 percent decrease in
hours (tables A and 3). These were the largest-ever declines in
the output and hours series, which begin with data for the second
quarter of 1987. Over the last four quarters, manufacturing
productivity fell 3.2 percent, the largest four-quarter decline in
the series (tables A and 3). This contrasts with the 3.7 percent
average annual increase from 2000 to 2007. In the durable goods
manufacturing subsector, output declined 31.0 percent and hours
fell 23.0 percent, yielding a productivity decline of 10.4
percent. In nondurable goods industries, productivity rose 1.9
percent as the decline in output of 11.6 percent was less than the
13.2 percent decline in hours.
Hourly compensation in manufacturing grew 13.4 percent during
the first quarter of 2009, reflecting a 15.8 percent rise in
durable goods industries and a 10.1 percent rise in the nondurable
goods industries (seasonally-adjusted annual rates). Real hourly
compensation, which takes into account changes in consumer prices,
increased 16.1 percent for all manufacturing workers.
Unit labor costs rose 16.6 percent in manufacturing during
the first quarter of 2009, after increasing 17.1 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2008. Over the last four quarters total
manufacturing unit labor costs increased 12.0 percent, the largest
increase in the series.END
These moves represent the BIGGEST moves since 1987. So things are falling off a cliff for America's manufacturing base. I have also reviewed this same info for the State Of California and it is confirmed. The biggest drops in payroll for California are Construction and Manufacturing. The reports don't really say why, but I imagine it is due to closing doors or moving out! Interesting the two sectors which show the least decline in employment are mining and healthcare. Healthcare in California is stable. Let's see worst Depression since the 1930s means more STRESS so more MEDS please!
So productivity decreases while wage costs increase. Hummmmm??? NEXT!
cnq.to
Out $64.4
UNG
Shares bought today @ 13.44 of at 14.33. Just money management.
Re: SRS @ 17.15/Off @ 17.32
...
Cara Bahamas 2010
Bill,
Thanks for keeping us up to date on next year's conference! I really enjoyed this year's and planning on attending in 2010.
~Brent
Re: stratfor articles are propaganda
i dont have a membership to stratfor's premium service any longer to post the article, if you have access you should be able to find it,
it was posted about1-2 years ago addressing armed insurrection in california due to mexican drug cartels infiltrating southern california and the growing popularity of california separatist movements by those who wish to return cali to mexico.
i found it interesting but not exactly realistic.
Re: Question For WGW Shareholders
I spoke to many folks including IR, and come to find out that for those of us holding shares in street name (ie we don't have the registered certificates), it will be up till next wednesday before we get shares, but hopefully sooner, I was told by IR.
Basically, WGI hasn't been delisted from the TSX till today, and the process couldn't start until both it and WGW were delisted. I saw they issued a NR on it, but it didn't give any specific date it would be fixed by.
When I couldn't sell my WGW, I shorted NGD to hedge the position, which was lucky, but sadly, I didn't short enough, and didn't hold the position long enough to completely offset yesterday's crash.
Someday, I hope gold will actually go up and stay up a while, and then maybe if something else doesn't go wrong, maybe we'll see $5.00 for those shares. One nice thing with gold $950 plus is that they shouldn't need additional dilution to complete New Afton because cash flow from the other mines should be sufficient. Maybe another year for my $5.00 target. Show me $1000+ gold and we'll get there., I think...
Bill's Opening Comments Today
Bill - I just want to say for the record that my interpretation of your comments today seems price bullish, while acknowledging that the underlying fundamentals (HB&B control and intervention) remain a growing cloud of concern.
What I'm saying, in effect, is thanks again for sharing with all of us your many years of experience navigating the nuances of today's intervened marketplace. ;)
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
ALOHA !!
I have been in Hawaii off and on since 1970. Surfing of course ... and too much HAWAII 5-0!
Now, my wife and I originally wanted to move to Australia or New Zealand and We even went there farm shopping, but in the end our family was not happy about that since its a long plane flight to Perth or Christchurch ... Ask Chris! So we opted to be as close as we could to the USA borders headed to the South Pacific. We did consider Florida and the Caribbean but I spent enough time in HURRICANE ALLEY in Galveston, TX(I rode out Hurricane Alicia)and the idea of boarding up or evacuating every Summer was not appealing. We get storms here in Hawaii on the Big Island but the high mountains here pressure the big storms to stay offshore. The last major hurricane that hit Hawaii hit Kauai in 1992. That is the major difference between Hawaii and Bahamas is the mountains we have. Mauna Kea is actually higher than Everest if you count its base at the sea floor. Mauna Kea gets snow every year as well.
One of the big deciding factors in favor of Hawaii was its low taxes(compared to California)and abundant year round food and water and warmth. Captain Cook did not call it "Paradise" for nothing! Plus its a major vacation destination not only for Americans but for Asians! We wanted to work and live in a place where most people came to vacation.
The other factor was the isolation here. You just do not get the same border problems as California and Texas have. Hawaii has a 3000 mile moat!
There are disadvantages to living here, but not so many to make us move!
MAHALO!
Re: From Stratfor's E-letter. Geo strengths of United States
Craig,
"I saw it too...and the first response of Betty Ford was from TWO young ladies, not just one. They brainstormed to get the wrong answer."
I think that's when they went Woo-woo! Thinking they aced the answer to that one. Oh, Boy!
I would say this from Kaimu about sums up our on-going problem —
"So it has nothing to do with Americans and America's geographical location. It has a LOT more to do with America's leaders and those who control our monetary system."
This is why I keep harping about the jobs situation:
Where I live the jobs have been leaving for almost two decades. Recent improvement in the numbers gets big play in local news. We went from 14.5% joblessness to only 12.3% this spring. The drop, however, was due to people leaving town since there are NO decent jobs left.
Everything the Bush and Obama administrations, with the aid of Congress have done to "cure" the problem, has only promised an increased problem in the future. The only question is, How soon it will hit the fan?
Sure, we will deal with it, but the reality is — it didn't have to happen — and nobody who caused it is paying for it.
I just ran across this which describes what I've seen here.
"...corporations have taken a literal machete to employment costs all in the interests of preserving nominal profits and profit margins, are they essentially destroying the very source from which future aggregate demand will be driven within the context of a macro household balance sheet deleveraging environment that we believe continues for some time to come? Moreover, have we entered a bit of a vicious cycle in terms of labor market pressure feeding into wage pressure, feeding into consumption pressure that further constricts corporate profits, ultimately leading to even further pressure on labor costs? We’ll be suggesting to you that current circumstances are very much unlike any prior US economic cycle of the last thirty to forty years at least."
The Contrary Investor June 2009
http://tiny.cc/L9z4A
Re: Gold price
I agree they will inflate the heck out of it, and that the deficits are the cause, but its got to be pretty ugly for the rest of the world holding all that US dollar debt, so I guess they will play a game of bouncing it down a step at a time, playing the "deleveraging" card to give it an upward bounce now and then so total panic doesn't set in.
Just my 2 cents worth. I see my posts are now moderated, so I guess I am now persona non grata.
[Don't know how that happened. Korvus changed some software yesterday, which might have done it. /Bill]
Re: MFI.TO technical help please
I believe it means the stock is stuck in neutral, so the MA's are adaptive to the price. The MACD is an indicator that measures MA delta. Therefore no trend put the MACD in flat mode.
AGU.to
Can anyone give me a view on the stock viz a viz their takeover offer for CF. If it fails what? If it succeeds what? (happens to stock price) Expiry June 22
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
kaimu,
Thanks for the response, I've learned a lot from you while perusing the blog. I appreciate your insight.
Aloha y hola
Kaimu, Perhaps you should visit Mazatlan. Third world, hardly.
Dangerous ? nope. Weather, huge variation, sometimes 4 or 5 degrees C in one day.
Windy ? Hope so. Women, most beautiful in the world.
Beaches, unlimited.
You said; "work and live in a place where most people came to vacation" Yup!
50th state....the moat.
When we're all trading the Asian markets in a few years we can move to Hawaii and work a few hours in the late morning/early afternoon.
We have so MANY Mexican folks living here now that it rises to the level of comedy. You go out to the stores and you could be mistaken for thinking you'd flown up into the sky and landed in Cuernavaca.
Acually that's not fair. They come from all across central and south america.
I hope your leg is feeling much better.
Re: MFI.TO technical help please
Thanks for commenting Lori - what you say makes sense in that the math dictates the MAs will flatten out and match the price the longer the price stays flat. I'm left wondering if that is any kind of technical "tell". Does it suggest something or does it suggest nothing? I suspect it tells me nothing and that the market is waiting for some reason to buy or sell.
Asia is here
Vancouver cuisine must be most varied in the world and great prices thanks to penny pinching Asians who move here and teach us all how to be thrifty. They'll take pains to avoid paying $1 for parking! I doubt they give CRA much.
Crazy stuff
In 30 years of dealing with TSX this is the craziest ride I've ever been on.
Insanity prevails.
Magna, questionable at best, risen 8% so far today, why ? MG.A:T , MGA: NY
And MFC:T looking very good again,why ?
Bought some FAZ at 4.41
I'm guessing today's happiness was caused by the continuing claims dropping, and I think tomorrow's unemployment % might slap people back to reality. Of course, I expect the BLS to lie as usual on the jobs numbers, and have to revise last month's number lower, as usual, but at some point, as the number of unemployed keep rising, someone will figure out that those who no longer get unemployment, won't be buying cars, or paying bills, either.
Print us up some more...
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
Kaimu for Treasury Secretary to replace tiny tim, LOL.
Just imagine if there was anyone honest running the show in DC what a difference that would make!
$CPCI
Index Put/Call is skying most of the day
TBT
Something light a fire under this one in the last few minutes.
3 mistakes yesterday;
Selling AA
Selling KRE
Not adding to TBT
Oops, bought at the top
http://tinyurl.com/qa4lql
Re: Crazy stuff
It's pretty clear the powers-that-be (PTB) have decided to make their year here and now. All news/reality will be ignored until this process is finished.
I assume everyone has noticed the last 30 minutes of the day for weeks now? There doesn't seem to be an ounce of fear or hesitation. My guess is that until the day comes when someone goes for the big finish and gets slapped down the upward momentum will continue. Until then, the dip buyers own the market.
Re: $CPCI
hi
Helaine Meisler (I'm not sure if i have the name right) wrote an article talking about put/call ratios and said that the high number of calls to puts indicated a market downturn. This was on a "the street" dot cam e-mail that I get inundated with.
I am not sure what day she wrote this,b ut it was very recent.
Anyway is this what you are getting at by mentioning this?
How can I look this up? (I did a search for $cpci on yahoo finance and it didn't find anything.
Thanks
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
RE:>The problem is ... ITS THE MONEY STUPID!
We are certainly cognisant of this issue Kaimu, in no small part thanks to your efforts. Monetary policy will certainly be an issue to deal with if America is to develop its potential. Fiat money encore? To what ends? Certainly not prosperous ones.
RE:>America used to export oil ...
The technology and capital is there. Does Washington wish to bring forward a new energy research and development policy?
RE:>All humans ADAPT OR DIE!
Precisely my point. Blessed with what resources it has, and can harness in conjunction with its norther and southern neighbour, I think the US has a better opportunity to pull itself back from the brink of bankruptcy we've all driven ourselves towards this last 50 years.
RE:>There is no wealth today in America ... only DEBT
The educated and moneyed elite understand that, the politicians understand that and the rest of the population are gonna catch on sooner or later. Once we have a triumvirate of understanding, I think the negotiations - hardball or otherwise - can begin.
Keep the faith Kaimu. We're all part of one big family, even if I feel estranged from most of them, most of the time.
Re: SRS @ 17.15
followed you in for nice little trade....
Buy 200 shares SRS at Market Day 06/04/09 Filled
06/04/09 13:48 Filled 200 at 17.1077
Sell 200 shares SRS at 17.7 Stop Loss Day 06/04/09 Filled
Re: $CPCI
newbee
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$cpci&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=0
NG futures just jumped from .02 to .07
...
cnq.to
reload at $62.52.
edit $63.52. could have waited longer
Re: Knowing when to sell
Unfortunately, I sold out of spng in the mid-4 cent range right before it went ballistic, so what do i know. I was expecting it to shoot up, but got cute and acrewed uip my timing thinking that I still had time for it to drop and get back in. I wonder if the spike in price in mid-afternoon was from some who had advance knowledge of the costco deal. So I missed out on a potential double assuming I held to near the high today.
I did 2 trades today - lost money on I sold on a brief pullback since i am afraid this thing is going to go down fast, also. Made some more on a trade at a higher level.
Anyway, me thinks that this has moved too far, too fast (there seems to be a euphoric feeling to the rise in price) and am thinking that it will drop quite a bit (but not back to the 4 cents level). But, given what I did, what do I know?
the company's prospects seem very good, but man is this stock volatile.
Re: HNU.to-> opening @ $USD 5.03/ Off @ $USD 5.24
Mark- No faith, man. That's what recent market action has ingrained in me. I could be taking it off at $USD 5.72 right now.
Re: $CPCI
thanks
seems like she was saying that the call/put ratio (the inverse of the put/call ratio) was high on may 5th and was saying that was a potential indicator of a downturn in the s & p 500 based on previous recent highs.
So, does a high put/call ratio indicate that the market will go higher?
I noticed from the chart that these ratios spike up and down very sharply. Not quite what to make of that.
Re: MFI.TO technical help please
Well I don't know for sure but I have to think that perhaps the market is still extremely leery of this stock owing to the issues and pending fall out from the listeriosis lawsuits. My own thoughts though, "the street" is much smarter than I.
Re: Knowing when to sell
and as I wrote this the price jumped from near .07 to .8 in an hour.
Re: HNU.to-> opening @ $USD 5.03/ Off @ $USD 5.24
2nd- The crazy think is it's working for both our styles right now. Makes it a little easier for me also seeing so many negative comments still. Even after taking my trade off today my basis is still nicely positive. What's not to like?
Re: HNU.to-> opening @ $USD 5.03/ Off @ $USD 5.24
2nd- The crazy thing is it's working for both our styles right now. Makes it a little easier for me also seeing so many negative comments still. Even after taking my trade off today my basis is still nicely positive. What's not to like?
Re: Knowing when to sell
oops - meant .07 to .08 (i keep screwing this up with prices this low - hope i didn't get anyone too excited with my typo)
Re: You Know When They Say
Judge Farley was a menace to Canadian business and is no friend of the Canadian worker/pensioner. He single-handedly re-invented the court process for insolvency and bankruptcy in Canada and destroyed the share capital of many formerly great but troubled companies, one of which being Air Canada. In a blatantly corrupt process of corporate engineering under the guise of making legal decisions, he saw that those who benefited were his friends in the legal profession and those who practiced insolvency accounting - something he went to great lengths to promote in lectures, forums etc. In his mind, you are bankrupt when you are his friend and you think and say you are broke. Being profitable or having positive cash flow is irrelevant if vultures and cronies are able to steal good enterprises by getting them into CCAA, re-packaging them and quickly selling them at enormous profit. Coming shortly after his leaving the bench following the Stelco fiasco that favored the law firm he quickly joined, this news is an obscenity.
Re: Oops, bought at the top
vinod- How is he getting 7500/month? No way. If I could rent his 1.6m home for 7500/month, I would take it off his hands right now.
Re: MFI.TO technical help please
LOL - "the street is much smarter than I" - an interesting, but paradoxical line! Acknowledging the adage of not fighting the market, but isn't part of the game making a bit extra when the market hasn't got it quite right?
Anyway, you're likely right about the skepticism towards the stock and in that sense it may be a stock to trade on fundamentals, not on technicals, (if that makes any sense). From what I understand, the listeriosis issue is behind them and other fundamentals are improving, but I won't take the discussion in that direction, because this isn't a target stock of the cara community. I was just interested in people's thoughts on the technical analysis.
WOW.. NGN9 now +.103
...
Re: Aloha y hola
ALOHA !!
Been there ... surfing Cannons and Playa Norte back in the 1980s.
I like Mazatlan and Puerta Vallarta ...
Come on man ... Mexico is not Hawaii, compared to Hawaii Mexico is Third World.
Try driving from LA to Mazatlan ... I don't know how many bribes we had to pay along the way! Even my Mexican crew foreman had to pay a bribe and get strip searched at a OFICINA ADUANA (Customs)and he was a passenger in a Mexican TNT bus going from LA to Guadalajara. The Federales stole $200USD from him ... They strip search you and take your clothes in another room along with your wallet and your wallet comes back a little thinner than it went in! HA!!
Then I won't even go where the Federales go ...
CUIDADO LA POLICIA Y LOS FEDERALES!
Yet I would still live there. You just have to know how to play the game and blend in! It helps a lot if you know Spanish though. I have talked my way out of bribes before, not often, but some.
One thing I learned about MEXICO ... never flash the cash! Keep with the HUMBLE GRINGO routine! HA!!
ES QUE LO ES ...
Re: Oops, bought at the top
To put it another way, if he can rake in $7500/month on his home, why sell?
UNG
Tim Knight noted (and acted upon) "serious, serious accumulation at these levels." He posted @ 10:31 this morning. See chart.
http://slopeofhope.com/2009/06/ung-again.html
hnu.to
Rest of it out at $6.45. Goodbye!
Re: Oops, bought at the top
fireworks posted this yesterday:
"A few weeks after the asking price was dropped to $1.575 million, the home was rented for $7,500 a month on May 21, said the agents, Scott Stiefvater of Stiefvater Real Estate and Debbie Meiliken of Keller Williams Realty New York.
Although $7,500 might seem like a lot of rent, it probably falls a bit short of the monthly mortgage payments on the Geithners' two loans totaling $1.25 million, plus $27,000 a year in property taxes."
Looks like they have negative cash flow each month even at $7,500/mth rent.
The first of the show trials getting underway
Bloomberg: SEC Files Fraud Charges Against Former Countrywide CEO Mozilo
Now if only Phil Gramm could be made to do the perp walk it would make all this pain worthwhile.
OCLS
On CNBC- Flying again.
OCLS
In and out for 15%
Re: You Know When They Say
You have to wonder what its all about when some of the off balance sheet claims in bankruptcy court are deemed frivolous, and the same time, a company winds up heavily burdened with more off balance sheet swaps than you can shake a stick at. The aftermath of the Nasdaq crash was bizzare, and only became more so with the opportunistic bankruptcies.
The only news in the press that really covered the effect of swaps on the balance sheet was Abitibi. But not a peep on any other major corporation, and not the slightest tidbit in the Canadian press. Not only that, but the miners being sold off and then laying off thousands could have been predicted with some accuracy. More dealing in credit derivative obligations.
And what about Canadian sovereign debt? Is it also burdened heavily with interest rate swaps, and the Canadian taxpayer yoked into servitude unaware that their government has been printing money like its going out of style in order to keep up with it all?
Practically ZERO coverage there.
Re: Gold price
I agree, it's where I am patiently just sitting and watching from.
Jim Rogers - "Don't short the market"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31106964
SEC charging ex-Countrywide CEO Mozilo with fraud
Impressive, proactive and mollusk are terms that come to mind. Further investigation reveals the following org chart:
DYODD!
Re: Oops, bought at the top
I appreciate that mortgage interest in the US is deductible for income tax purposes, but isn't taking a 75% mortgage on an expensive home when you are 47 years old one of the main reasons we are in this mess? Me thinks that is seriously irresponsible, and he's in charge of....
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
I am surprised at several simple truths.. the most important truth being...
We can post the truth all we want, it won't change people's minds when they are following trends. We can show people the light... but it just blinds them when insisting upon embracing darkness.
We sort through all the information to help us understand trends... nothing more. Trying to use truth to change the world ... just pushes others away from the truth in their discomfort of the truth.
The reality is yes its all messed up... But at some point if you want to change it, ironically you just have to walk away from it so it can crumble and allow new growth to occur.
That is where we are now. Profits will be made in understanding this, and we hurt ourselves in thinking we can change the system from the inside out. Change will come but after the "truth" of today crumbles into being the past.
The other point is money is power, money is how people in this culture define themselves. People are 90% emotions 10% truth... so it only takes a little emotional arm twisting to have huge negative impact to one's statements... Don't fall into the trap of using negative emotions to push for positive change, Negative fear / emotions drive people to act in fear and produces negative results... which drives the money straight to those who wield the power in this case...
Just be aware of the unintended side effects of how "truth" is presented since it may not help as we think it does.
As an aside here is a fun little video well done on how to help shift truth to a way people can embrace it
http://www.storyofstuff.com/
Namaste
Re: Gold price
We just have to love your incredible candor and humor Bill - I love how you just shoot from the hip, don't ever change.
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
Agreed my friend, Hawaii is a good place to be
Sold the FAZ for 4.44
Just didn't have the confidence to hold it overnight. Its good odds that's a bottom, IMO.
Re: Oops, bought at the top
Then he's holding a mountain of debt. Let's just say home prices here are in the same neighborhood, but rent for much less. So one would need a minimum of 60-70% equity to make it worth their while. I still can't believe anyone would rent a place for 7500/month when they could probably obtain a mortgage on the same property for less than half that amount.
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
ALOHA !!
Casey ... right on mate ...
All you have to do is take a lesson from the volcano Kilauea ... From the fire and destruction comes the new growth and prosperity. Only the old was replaced by the new ... regeneration!
I hike these lava flows and I am amazed at how fast the new growth starts as Paradise renews itself. Its always a reminder of how powerless we humans are spinning here in the galaxy!
What the US CONgress and the US FED are trying to do, in effect, is stop the lava flow. Stop the death of the old ways because it is the old ways where they derive their power. Far from embracing real CHANGE they fear it ... they fear it immensely. They are pushing against the flow! These people would come to Hawaii and stand there gazing at the lava flow and say, "Lets damn it up or bomb it and make it change its path!" THEY GO AGAINST THE NATURE OF THINGS! Things that have roots in ten of thousands of years of human existence and the nature of the Earth. They deny the "human" part of humanity. Yet the irony of the money they peddle is based on the human condition. I am not sure they understand that ... They academiaize all around that one stark issue in the belief that they can somehow control the human condition or change it. In the long run they can not!
GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Re: Oops, bought at the top
"To put it another way, if he can rake in $7500/month on his home, why sell?"
Think about this.....
He would need $157,500 per year in rent receipts to make 10% before taxes, financing, insurance and upkeep. (ignoring the leverage of the total value VS debt, etc). Let's say it's paid off to keep it simple.
@ $7500 a mo. that's $90,000 annually, then subtract taxes, insurance, upkeep.
$90,000 return on 1.6 mil before expenses and taxes? What a LOSER!!!!!
I would sell it (just like I did my mom's place under the same assumptions) and put the cash into div yields/hard goods/commodities where I could make a better, less risky return with better liquidity. Maybe the place next to Kaimu, paid for with cash? At least there would be food....
I could have rented my mom's place in So. Cal for $2000 mo and it was no $1.6 mil extravaganza, but $2000 in gross rent on $450,000 isn't a good or reliable return on equity.
Real estate has a ways to go....
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
:) very much so
Which is why I quietly sit up here on the slopes of Mauna Kea, watching my waterfall. Helping others in kindness one person at a time.
It doesn't too much good trying to help someone not ready to shift. In fact being helpful at the wrong time actually will drive people into that lava of change, rather than moving to their own change of heart and being Human.
But Hawaii is personally where I find peace as it all does come on down.
Get out of the way indeed!
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
:) very much so
Which is why I quietly sit up here on the slopes of Mauna Kea, watching my waterfall. Helping others in kindness one person at a time.
It doesn't do too much good trying to help someone not ready to shift. In fact being helpful at the wrong time actually will drive people into that lava of change, rather than moving to their own change of heart and being Human.
But Hawaii is personally where I find peace as it all does come on down.
Get out of the way indeed!
arg I double posted so uncool
arg I double posted so uncool of me... :) oh well I mean it twice as much then.
Re: Jim Rogers - "Don't short the market"
I want to say it was 2 months ago that he was on television proclaiming that he was short JP Morgan stock and that they were undoubtedly insolvent when JPM was in the $20 range. He was saying it with such confidence that you would believe he had traveled to the future. JPM went directly up to about $35+ and Rogers has now apparently covered all his shorts?
Rogers is fun to listen to, but good luck making use of this advice.....
S&P Found Support Yesterday
I was reviewing the action in the market and saw that the S&P bounced off support at the 200-day moving average yesterday on low volume and with the Accumulation/Distribution indicator still rising.
It seems to me that this is a sign of the market continuing its rally as long as the 200-day acts as support.
Mark
http://tinyurl.com/pxtr2p
Re: Oops, bought at the top
Craig- It might help to view the transaction from the perspective of the renter.
In order to qualify for a rental at 7500/month, the annual income would have to be north of 250,000. So he/she can probably afford a 1m downpayment. He would then finance the balance at say 6% fixed for 30 years. To keep things simple, let's say he's able to buy the place for 1.5m. So his mortgage payment comes to 3000/month. Property taxes are another 2250/month (I'm not familiar with NY taxes, but in California property taxes would run about 1/2 that amount). Both the mortgage and the property taxes are deductible, so let's say he effectively pays 70% of the 5250/month, or 3675/month.
So for half the 7500/month rent, he gets to buy the place, AND participate in (any) appreciation in the house. Why rent?
Let's say he's renting b/c he can't afford a 1m downpayment. THEN the question becomes: what's he doing renting a place for 7500/month? He should be renting a place for 3675/month, and putting the rest away in a bank account towards a future downpayment.
Re: Oops, bought at the top
reeks of a scam.
David Carradine- Dead in Bangkok
http://tinyurl.com/onpync
No comment on cause of death until it's official.
He will always be part of the seventies for me- opposite Barbara Hershey in Boxcar Bertha (and in real life), and as Kwai Chang Caine. I recall an appearance at the Oscars in a tuxedo and bare feet.
Re: Oops, bought at the top
"reeks of a scam."
Pz- Yes. The ONLY way I can see someone paying 7500/month is in the form of subsidized rent. We can only hope it's not taxpayer-subsidized.
Re: Oops, bought at the top
with this fascist/socialist administration I'm sure I am paying my fraction of a cent to Timmy!
Re: Oops, bought at the top
So we agree, it's not a good deal from either perspective?
Timmy could get a greater return in his friends and family blind trust account at GS and the renter *could* pay less tax adjusted, but maybe is thinking it will go even lower or perhaps has some business arrangement that pays for rent or renders it a business expense..... there are so many ways....
Re: Oops, bought at the top
"So we agree, it's not a good deal from either perspective?"
Not exactly. If something is not a good deal from one perspective, it's usually a decent deal from the opposite. The deal breaker in this case (IMO) is that the 7500 monthly rental income is not sustainable.
Re: ITS THE MONEY STUPID
"Thomas Berry, Writer and Lecturer With a Mission for Mankind, Dies at 94"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/04berry.html?hpw
This man engaged in deep thought. He might not agree with Kaimu re the subject line. But he would agree with the line "... Americans are no different than any other humans in the World. All humans ADAPT OR DIE! That's how its been since cave man days."
The NYT article and the video is a great synopsis of his life and thinking.
Free Access Codes
They no longer work for Pascal W's web site. Is he incorporating this into the Cara Community web site?
Trading Holiday?
Vinod- I'm seriously contemplating one.
After all is said and done, my portfolio value is exactly +0.2% in two weeks.
Too risk-averse to put much money to work, and disinclined to play the long side.
Should have focused on the NGas trade this morning. If I had given it a chance to play out, it would have made my week.
Hope you're doing well.
jasper, moneygenie, QT, allen
Let me just say: I (we) miss your posts!
Nikkei now up 0.7%/RBC Capital upgrades banks
The rally continues in Japan.
RBC Capital upgrades banking sector (heads up courtesy of Vad's site):
http://tinyurl.com/okx85j
"After being bearish on the U.S. banking industry since 2006, RBC Capital Markets analysts upgraded the sector on Thursday to "overweight" from "sector weight," saying the battered industry is in the early stages of a multiyear bull market.
"The analysts said recent government "stress tests" of large lenders have given investors a "conservative but realistic" look at a worst-case scenario for the sector, and even if there were near-term pain, longer-term dynamics would be favorable.
"Worries over near-term results could cause a 10 percent to 20 percent drop in share prices, which have doubled since early March; but analysts Jon Arfstrom, Jason Arnold, Gerard Cassidy and Joe Morford said this could provide a buying opportunity.
"'We have been bearish on bank stocks for over 2-1/2 years due to an expectation that deteriorating credit was going to destroy bank profitability and stock prices," but "two out of the three major risks, capital adequacy and liquidity, for the banking industry have been greatly reduced' RBC said."
Re: Oops, bought at the top
June 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is renting his home in Westchester County, New York, for $7,500 a month after failing to find a buyer, according to data on the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service Inc.
---
What???? $7500 a month for a roof over your head? Got to be kidding me! Hope the renter doesn't plan to live there long, because $90k a year could buy a nice home for those of us not interested in keeping up with the Joneses.
Gold ?
Jim Willie is a gold bug and has some very good points, he is saying that we
have monetization 1 trillion dollars, 300 billion in bonds and 750 billion in us agency mortagage bonds. He feels this monetization of 1 trillion will be a quarterly event. Article has some good facts. He really thinks it is about all over for the USA economically. The currency could depreciate a 100%.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/jun042009.html
Re: Article From Peter Hodson
Peter Hodson discusses some gains out of very unlikely stocks:
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/ViewFromTheStreet/2009/...
Re: gold here....
Dr. Cosa, FYI We have at least as many people walking the streets in Seattle, WA at night as perhaps you do in Vancouver, BC. And while yours get free health care, ours are turned away at emergency rooms because they lack insurance. Children die in their mother's arms awaiting transport to a non profit hospital that accepts the great unwashed without insurance. It's always the least among us that suffer the most. While many Americans are flexible and able to adapt, a great many jobless and now hopeless people are finding the system they paid into all their lives leaving them by the wayside like refuse.
Yes we have ineffective social programs. Just who received the billions to administer 'Hope for Homeowners' (touted to help 400,000 borrowers) massively failed initiative is uncertain: of the 51 loans they refinanced only one succeeded, the other 50 failed and officials for Lend America are under investigation for fraud.
On a lighter note: 'Hope the Early Years' news and pictures of Timothy Geithner's home for sale (still):
https://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/tbws/9614...
Tough love...
I know this will seem like a very extreme solution to fix the economy, but if push come to shove... http://tinyurl.com/pr6f3w .
Re: Jim Rogers - "Don't short the market"
In all the interviews I've heard with him, Rogers is the first to admit he is a lousy trader.
What he seems better at are long term calls, for example to invest in China, because its growing, rather than the US, and to avoid long term exposure to the US dollar, because its being debased. Maybe my seeing those as "good" long term calls is just my perception of reality.
I believe the dollar can bounce if the Fed is willing to crush the markets into more deleveraging, but long term, I think they will print because it will get to where they won't be able to stand even watching the pain they will be inflicting. IMO, they have already shown us that is how they will play the hand, and in the long run, Rogers will be right.
Re: When Tough love...comes to shove
Mark, my man. That's not tough love. That's the kind of thing that goes on everyday- deadbeat boyfriends being supported by hardworking women.
Re: When Tough love...comes to shove
2nd- Your right, and that was me for 30 years...Then I meet my wife and folded like a cheap suit. Best trade I'll ever make.
BTW...Far form me to advise you, but why not take the holiday. Last one for you seemed to work out quite well. I'll hold up the fort on the Nikkie updates if needed. NGN9 +.016...see, I can't help myself! Good luck my friend.
Re: Money doesn’t grow on trees
Sure it does, where do you think the paper comes from...the tooth fairy :)
U.S. Gold seminar
I attended the US Gold seminar Manhattan last night . The presentation was given by Ian J. Ball V.P. Mexico , Robert McEwen did not attend . There were 30 people in attendance . Ian told us U . S . Gold recently finished a public offering of 25 million shares that brought in 50 million U.S. dollars . This money will fund their exploration budget for the next 3 years, on its land packages in Mexico and Nevada with the goal of MOVING TOWARDS PRODUCTION. Ian told us that we New Yorkers always want to know the return on investment , but Canadians are more interested in finding out the value locked up underground in their properties . So for at least the next 3 years will be spent drilling and analyzing the results . The main things stressed Were that Robert McEwen owned 21% of U.S. Gold and that the chairmen of the majors owned very little or none of their companies. They have very promising indications both in Mexico and Nevada. In Mexico El gallo High grade discovery CONTROLLED by U.S. Gold . mineral. A member of the group wanted to know how long it take to receive permits to start a mine?We were told by a representative from Capital Gold who happened to be present that they took two years in Mexico, but that it could compressed into nine months . The U.S. on the other hand would take over 2 years. It was interesting I would buy only on dips . Most of the information given could be learned on the web . It was an enjoyable evening .
Re: Money doesn’t grow on trees
Don't forget stock certificates are paper too. Long ago I had them sent to me. It was not convenient for trading but I was a holder. They were as beautiful as a piece of silver, to me. Now it is all electronic memory.
In late 80's I attended a "Survivability" Conference in D.C. as an Army technical rep. It was a "scare" show sponsored by nuclear defense (Star Wars) advocates. A three star retired (maybe or not) General Graham was the keynote speaker at a very nice hotel.(Don't hold me to that name but he was the biggest AF General advocate of space defense).
The most startling presentation stated that all electronic devices and e-memory of the USA could be wiped out by a nuclear detonation high above the atmosphere. Hopefully our ground hardware is now hardened for such an occurrence.
inflation
http://seekingalpha.com/article/141286-julian-robe...
Re: inflation
That was a very interesting article which I read early today. I intend to act on it when TLT spurts up by shorting same. I no longer have faith in TBT as a hold due to personal experience backed up by the author's observations. The downside is paying the dividend on TLT.
Re: inflation
Illini, Shorting 2X, 3Xes sure is a fast way to make money but we have to wait for the roll(otherwise ST pain is a killer). I need to keep a watch on the main ones, they do keep presenting an opportunity every now n then
US TREASURY
ALOHA !!
Well on June 3rd, 2009, yesterday, Wednesday, the US TREASURY spent $22.332BIL USD on Social Security benefits. That put our SPEND RATE up to 6.00. The US TREASURY only took in $7.559BIL USD in tax revenues on June 3rd and out of that $7.449BIL was from US PAYROLL TAX REVENUES. How much taxes did the US corporations pay in? $52mil. Those rich people with their Estate taxes only paid in $3mil USD.
So how much have we spent on Social Security for FY 2009 so far? Around $385.7BIL USD and how much on TARP? On TARP $321.4BIL USD ... not much difference. But on UNCLASSIFIED we have spent way over what we spend on Social Security at $413.6BIL USD. Between OTHER and UNCLASSIFED we have spent a combined total of $1.777TRIL USD and the media is dead silent. There's so much money in the system on a daily basis the US TREASURY can't even line item it! If any of the US TREASURY employees are reading this go watch OFFICE SPACE and see what kind of "rounding scam" software you can come up with. The US TREASURY wouldn't notice $10bil USD missing much less a few hundred thou! Would the US TREASURY ever announce if they were robbed electronically? For all we know they are robbed every day by hackers both inside and out! Wasn't there some deal about $4TRIL missing that was offshore tied to Mark Rich(the guy Clinton pardoned)? It was a few years ago!
Hummmm???
oil
HB&B probably owns the oil in the tankers
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/04/markets/oil.reut/i...
Money from Trees?
nemo's comment at the desire to get past spam filtering motivated me to post that:
Money (at least Federal Reserve Notes) actually don't grow on trees. They are made of recycle cotten jeans. They grow, literally, from cotten plants.
That's why FRN's survive the washing machine.
Just a bit of factual levity.
Dang I picked the wrong time to go short, I was hoping the S&P 500 failing to hold above 950 would mean SKF would make me some money!
sharkbite
Having witnessed a rather full range of Shark's views of women on this site it is highly unlikely his offer will return many takers. There are women who go for cads in codpieces of course, but my understanding of traders is they tend to enjoy the give and take more than just being taken.
bull market
this must surely be a long term bull market:):) Just check the charts of CME & ICE. What happened last october was like avian flu or swine flu or something, just a short term blip
Re: Money doesn’t grow on trees
Money comes from the tooth fairy, everyone knows this.
Be kind to your tooth fairy! ;)
Re: inflation
ALOHA !!
After reading the Robertson strategy for "Steepener Swaps / Constant Maturity Swap (CMS) Rate Cap" I have one question? Who is the counterparty that will pay out on these HUGE bets by these big hedge funds?
The one thing Robertson leaves out of his gold equation is that gold has no counterparty. Robertson is laughable as to his views on GOLD. He claims gold is never USED UP ... He just defined "real money" through the backdoor and he has no clue as to what he just said. Things that are a store of value are never destroyed. They are saved. This article shows me he and his hedgies do not understand what money is and what it is supposed to be. They have been totally brainwashed by the constant embedded inflation of the US FED's fiat. If you have significant counterparty risk then you are are on the wrong side of this interest rate play. Look at AIG ... it went BK paying up as a counterparty ... This time the US TAXPAYERS and revenues are tapped!
We'll be burning US Dollars to stay warm but nobody ever burned gold to stay warm!
In 1980 the Fed Funds Rate was higher than 15% and gold was up over $800USD then. All I can say is that if he thinks interest rates will go higher than 20% now from 3% then I cannot imagine where gold will be. Certainly not under $1000! Remember that since the USA SPENDS huge amounts it needs to borrow even HUGER amounts to maintain the same US living(welfare) standard. Combine that with crashing tax revenues. If rates are at 20% imagine what its going to cost the US TREASURY to borrow trillions per year! We were not spending trillions annually in the 1980s. Rising rates do not speak to AAA ratings ... So there are many reasons why Obama and Ben would want to keep rates low, but they want to blame it on those pesky overextended homeowners. They are trying to keep the rates low for us ... us lowly US citizens who cannot function without a NANNY STATE! Please-e-e-e!
Its for them ...
What a con game ...
GET OUT OF THE WAY!
Re: bull market/tomorrow
Shiva- I spit the bit yesterday on KRE. I know you don't like quick trades, but what about FAS/KRE before the jobs report? Seems to me the chicken is in the oven. If I'm wrong, out quick.
Re- Shorting treasuries...I agree of course, and will hold TBT as long as the trend continues. What I thought was interesting in the article was the time frame for the trade. Same way I feel about UNG. Got cash?? Why not put it to work even if it takes a while. Our friends that call this dead money are right if you don't trade around it. I've turned quite a profit on it.
Thinking about going into the lion's den and shorting Palm the day before the release. Crazy? I trust your take..
Re: US TREASURY
Woooo-Hoooo, go treasury, go! No wonder the market rallied today! Somebody's gonna have a hangover after this one... :(
kaimu - Thank you again, I've learned a great deal from your posts! :)
Re: bull market/tomorrow
Mark, I hv been ST trading gold & silver stocks last couple of weeks. Market is being pumped up(financials today is a good example- RBC recommending banks), so long on FAS/KRE may work out to be a good trade till the tide turns.
I have some OIH shorts from tuesday but wondering if its a wrong move.
On Palm, AAPL is expected to announce cheaper iphone or next generation iphone on monday. Both stocks might be on "sell the news" block next week.
Re: inflation
It seems to me there must be another way to reverse asset depreciation than by propping up Treasuries via Dr. Ben's printy-printy prescription. It won't matter in the end though, because the root cause of the current mess aside from dishonest financing, is the trade deficit enabled through the dishonest financing.
The ironic part is a belief they could indefinitely keep all balls in the air while completely discounting Newton's laws.
Speaking of laws, there are plenty of obvious violations:
Stein's Law: If something cannot go on for ever it will stop.
http://www.internetional.se/toft/usdeficit01.htm
Time to pay the piper!
Re: bull market/tomorrow
Shiva-"Both stocks might be on "sell the news" block next week." That's my take. Palm is at it's highest price since 2002. Nothing lives up to that much hype. Remember "Heavens Gate, Water World"? Luckily, I don't.
OIH shorts...That's going straight into the lions den. My type of trade!
CLN9 +.67 4,013 contracts traded this session. That's a lot. To compare...NDN9 (Nasdaq) 5 contracts traded, NGN9 378 contracts. GCM9 91 contracts. Careful here. GL
TOP BRACKETS
ALOHA !!
Here is a link to historical tax brackets from inception going back to 1913 ... Hummmmm??? How odd that the US INCOME TAX started when the US FED was created! I guess the US FED needed a guarantee that the interest would be paid. Obviously the US FED was not going to buy the "faith and credit" bull!
Link: http://www.hkmscpa.com/hist%20tax%20rates.htm
Notice the common denominator and how to tell when we are in a "real war"? Look at those TOP BRACKETS. Man as high as 94% in 1944-1945 for WW2. Look at the Korean War as high as 92% in 1952. Then look at the Vietnam War as high as 77% in 1969.
Now look at what FDR was doing to all the rich people in the 1930s and 1940s.
Look at where the bottom bracket "taxable income" limits were in 1971 ... $1,000. From 1987 to 1988 it took a HUGE jump from $3,000 to $29,750. That's how fast your tax liability can change in one year.
So we started in 1913 at the bottom bracket of 1% and now we are at 15%.
This is what happens when government starts a new tax.
We are at the point where the US government is in desperation mode again with a infinite war and infinite fiscal liabilities that have been "promised" since LBJ days.
ES QUE LO ES!
Timmys Tennant
I would put money on Timmy's "renter" (at 7000+ a month) being some crony who is picking up the rent in order to maintain the appearances of prorpiety. They arent going to let their boy sweat something as inconsequential....he is making them TOO MUCH LOOT for them to let him sweat anything.
MEANWHILE
ALOHA !!
Meanwhile ... as poor Tim Geithner sweats who his new $7000/mth tenant will be the FBI is busy arresting the competition against the MONEY MONOPOLY.
READ ON:
LIBERTY DOLLAR ALERT:
June 2009 Vol. 11 No. 06-A
FBI Arrests Bernard, Kevin, Sarah & Rachelle
The battle for a value based currency has began!
The last two days have been amazing! Just shortly after midnight on Tuesday, the phone started ringing and I let the answering machine take the call. But very soon there was another call with an even more urgent message! Very quickly, a friend of Kevin Innes, explained to me that Kevin had been "detained" by the local sheriff and was being held for the FBI to arrest him! Holy Cow!! The #2 supporter for the Liberty Dollar and co-instructor at the Liberty Dollar University training sessions was in deep trouble with the Feds! I was sure to be next. But would they arrive in a few minutes or would it be a pre-dawn Nazi style assault?
Finally, I got up at 4:00 AM. I was very concerned for Kevin and wondered when the FBI would hit me. Fortunately the morning was quickly filled with a flurry of calls from Kevin's friend, other interested parties, the usual business calls and making preparations for the inevitable knock on the door. But nobody came. Then just after noon, Niles, who's wife, Rachelle, manages the Liberty Dollar Fulfillment Office, called to tell me that Rachelle had been picked up by the FBI at the LD Office and was due to be arraigned in just a few hours! The FBI strikes again!(more)
Here is the link: http://www.libertydollar.org/ld/pr_nl/06_04_2009.htm
Its amazing that the US FED feels this threatened that they raid and arrest their competition. Must be something they don't want us to know about ...
Seasonal Charts
I just found an interesting site with charts that show movement patterns over different time periods, intraday, weekly , monthly, decades etc for various commodities etc.
Some good ones e.g.PMs, gold, gold miners,Oil,Agriculturals,Pork Bellies!!,Natgas,currencies,usdx,indices,volatility, etc. This one I have linked is for intraday Gold price manipulation, er I mean movement.
http://tinyurl.com/qupsfw
The pdf. article on the homepage,shows the sell in May strategy(Sell end of May buy end of November as I understand it) out performance compared to buy and hold,its quite a dramatic difference,a three fold difference from 1970 to 2000.
Where's the Beef?
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/06/i-believe.html
I hate it when people are talking their book. Mea culpa.
Re: Jim Rogers - "Don't short the market"
cheapy,
As you pointed out he was early with the China call.
I think the long calls are his forte. Before taking his three year drive around the world he could find a genuine commodities fund so started his own and made out very well.
I remember the first time I saw him on CNBC in an economics "discussion" his reply to the opposition was, "If you are going to base your argument on government data we will have nothing to discuss."
Re: Money doesn’t grow on trees
Illini,
Ah, yes, stock certificates. It was a more relaxing way to do business.
When my wife's 97-year-old aunt died about five years ago she left hers to us. It was at a time when my last business client had announced they were leaving. (When corp HQ goes so does the advertising.)
"Wow! What a break." we thought.
Turned out to be Xerox copies of certificates she had sold long before — but they are pretty.
She meant well and my wife does have her ring which was real :-)
Re: TOP BRACKETS
"Notice the common denominator and how to tell when we are in a "real war"? Look at those TOP BRACKETS. Man as high as 94% in 1944-1945 for WW2. Look at the Korean War as high as 92% in 1952. Then look at the Vietnam War as high as 77% in 1969.
Now look at what FDR was doing to all the rich people in the 1930s and 1940s."
---------------
I recall that many Execs were "Dollar-a-Year Men" — I wonder if there is any record of how they were really paid. Deferred stock? Government bonds? I'm sure Paulson & Co. weren't the first to benefit through the back door.
Also, I have read there was at least part of the time a $50,000 salary limit. If so, foregoing $3,000 wasn't too steep a price for the "credit" of being a patriot.
Re: U.S. Gold seminar
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1316599.htm
Rob McEwen purchased 4 million shares ($8 million) of the recent share offering. He bought a lot in January too. He continues to support his company.
Ian Ball told the audience he believes the Mexican property would be in production in 24 to 30 months. The drill results are very impressive and Rob will have no problem raising the capital.