Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thurs., Mar. 19, 2009

CP, (repost from yesterday's discussion)

"Why did everyone race to treasuries?"

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm heavily into a Treasuries only mutual fund because :

• It got me back to even at year end 2008.
• It's paying 3.37% and I have cashed in twice so far on cap gains.
• If there is anything which the gov. will protect it is our huge debt holders China and Japan. (Where else can they look to for increased borrowing?)

Everything I buy is denominated in US dollars, so regardless of the worthlessness of paper, if I can still get bread it will be with a dollar.

Until/unless American consumers start to spend I don't believe we will have a big inflationary move. (But I am watching nervously ;-) The Fed purchase has implicitly devalued the dollar, so imports will pass costs on to us. I assume this must be why my TIPs ETF went up too.

Oh, and they have been far less volatile than my gold, oil, or other investments.

C is using shock and ah to trim the amount of float. IE. lower the amount of shares that are available for short positions.
I'll pass!
Lunatic bid on AIG @ 1.65

NOK - Upgraded to Buy @ Credit Suisse.

ORCL - Price Target Raised from $18 to $19 @ Jefferies & Co. Buy Rating.

NYU
I see it a little differently with respect to the reverse split. What I generally see is after the reverse split the shorts come back in a drive the price down. Would you rather short a $3 stock or a $90 stock? What certainly has happened is stock holder equity is being severely diluted.

Would anyone smarter than me (that's just about anyone!), care to comment on whether they think the USD's decline would be significant versus the Canadian dollar over the next few months to a year? One of the things that insulated my account to some extent over the last few months was being lucky enough to have over half of it in USD. I'm wondering if now might be a good time to switch those holdings to Canadian dollars.

Continuation from yesterday...

Services like geek squad are growing as the technology shift goes from the business to the home. that was conveyed in a break out session in the conference. they said that the best industry positions to become the defacto leader were the telcos like verizon, at&t and cable co's. they have the trucks to roll and the network feeding your house.

I suppose ICBM Ben can step down from his podium temporarily, making room for the next move. More treasury supply to be announced today, $40 billion 2 year notes,$34 billion 5 year notes and $ 22billion 7 year notes.

I can hear them clamor as they clamber aboard.

Looking at (ST) exits.

QT- Do you have any recommendations?

Joe Biden about reverse stock split (video):
[Admin: I removed the link because there's something sketchy about that site. Can't say for sure it's an issue, but websites that force me to download .exe files don't make me happy.]

Ignored. Your link caused an alert warning.

Guys, do not click on the link posted on #17733.

NYUGrad....thanks

ORCL - estimates raised through 2010, target increased at UBS. Company is seeing better license performance and generates strong cash flow. Buy rating and new $20 price target.

ORCL - estimates raised at Barclays through 2010. Company will likely continue to gain market share in the coming quarters, boosting margins. Overweight rating and $21 price target.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, the price of oil has been quietly and inexorably moving higher. Over $50 now.

It is early, but never too soon to ask: when does inflation start to become a concern?

I guess its the month of the leaked memos?

http://tinyurl.com/cpufmz

out at 5.35.

trailing .35 sell stop

trying to get a trailing buy stop on

bought some at 25.41

out for a flat.

Also had some fun with GE, GSS, GFI, SLV, SLW.

800 is key.

As if Joe Biden might have anything interesting to say. Nice try but whoever did that is terribly lame and needs to go back to school.

who's Joe Biden?
:)

Good morning – The 10 year U.S. Treasury bond price with the biggest one day gain in 40 years yesterday is yielding 2.52%, well down from 2.96% yesterday morning. With Fed intervention to buy Treasury notes and mortgage backed securities the mortgage rates are quite favorable today; however, the real benefits accrue to those in floating status that are set to close (15-30 day lock) with greater than 740 credit scores and lower that 60% loan to values on refinances and 80% loan to values or lower on purchases. Despite the Fed actions the yield does not approach the recent lows of 2.1% seen in mid December. Nothern Dynasty seems to be on a tear the last three days even on the Au down days. Happy Trading

just my mental image of the scenario. i think the train is headed for 825, before it dumps its first load of passengers during a re-test of the low. but really, who knows?

I think it will correct first 2nd. Everything is really over bought here and the McClellan Oscillator is really showing an over bought reading. After we correct, your next station number 825 is "spot on".

Naked Short Sales Hint Fraud in Bringing Down Lehman

I'm not sure how reinstating the up-tick rule is going to help, but I do know it won't do further harm. I'm more interested in addressing this:

“Suffice it to say that in a readily available stock that is traded frequently, there has to be an explanation to the appropriate regulator as to the circumstances surrounding the fail-to-deliver,” said Baker, who served in the U.S. House of Representatives as a Republican from Louisiana from 1986 to February 2008.

Forget the AIG bonus babies, demand the names of these naked short criminals. They are the real villains in this market and they have been acting with absolute impunity.

So why have they been kept a secret? Because they have names like Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan, and Citigroup, and Barclays.

Chickenpookie

After the FED move yesterday I was afraid to visit again. So far no death threats.

Today's market is as fun as the shooting gallery at Disneyland.
Plink, plink, plink!

Seems like a kind of wedge/squeeze between resistance at 800 and the 200 day.
Kinda have to wait to see how it resolves, but it feels bullish.

I hope I have another E ticket!

seems to be doing a turtle-type breakout over 750 resistance, but these types of breakouts are prone to being faded.

Hi All, I was doing some TA on the Aussie goldminers today and found some very compelling evidence that an upside breakout in the sector is occuring.

I hope the attachments work and they dont appear too large on the screen, but I thought this may be of interest to some.

I have included my comments below as well for interests sake.

All the best
Ad

Comments on charts:
>
> Technically as you can see in the following charts, I am quite
> certain that we are just beginning the next leg up in the gold equities.
> Today a number of stocks broke out of patterns on volume, while many
> more are 1 solid day of action away from it. Look at these charts as a
> group and together they give a very strong indication of an imminent
> upside move
>
>
> ALD
>
>
> Recently respected trendline, flag pattern formed, awaiting an upside
> breakout. Note the heavy volume in the most recent rise and the pullback
> in volume through the pattern. Volume confirms the pattern
>
>
> AND
>
>
> Classic double bottom formed in Nov. A number of continuation patterns
> have since ensued. Note the lack of volume through the latest triangle
> pattern. A break of the pattern occured 4 days ago on reasonable volume.
> The last three days of sideways action has been on very low volume.
> Another move north is imminent IMO
>
>
> AVO
>
>
> Support just below 1.50 which, after breaking minor support (thin blue
> line @ $1.60 odd), was tested yesterday, closed above it and rebounded
> today on very strong volume. Heaviest volume in the last six months in
> fact. Price sitting right on (or just above) minor downtrend line. I was
> abit concerned about this one yesterday when it dropped below minor
> support, but today's action reaffirms that a break upwards is a strong
> chance
>
>
> CNT
>
>
> Classic triple bottom in Oct and Nov. Price supported by a solid band of
> resistance turned support between approx .97c and $1.03. It is not drawn
> in, but price has formed a downsloping trendline from the spike high in
> Mid feburary to now. One strong day on volume and it should be off and
> running
>
>
> DOM
>
>
> Double botttom formed between August and Nov, the arrow points to the
> candle that confirmed the reversal pattern. Price still above the
> trendline and looks bullish as long as this continues to be the case
>
>
> A$GOLD
>
>
> Price above, but returning to trendline. Flag pattern formed, which is a
> classic continuation pattern. Expect a break up
>
>
> HEG
>
>
> Support at 13c. Descending triangle. increased volume last three days as
> price moves back up to top of pattern. Descending triangles are less
> certain to break upwards than flags or ascending triangles, but this is
> still what I expect to happen.
>
>
> KCN
>
>
> Triple bottom formed over Nov and Dec. Tentative uptrendline that has
> been respected 3 times and will become a valid trendline when price
> moves above the most recent high to confirm a continuation of the
> uptrend. Flag pattern formed and broken today on strongest volume in
> just under 6 months. I bought it today based on the break.
>
>
> LGL
>
>
> Double bottom formed back at the lows, arrow points to candle that
> confimred the reversal pattern. Flag pattern formed which was broken to
> the upside today, again on strong volume. Another of today's purchases
>
>
> MML
>
>
> Support @ $1.30, resistance @ $1.55. Huge volume increases in the
> forming of the pattern, suggesting another break north. I will buy it on
> a break of $1.60
>
>
> MUN
>
>
> Another double bottom at the lows, moved into a triangle and broke out
> upwards 7 days ago. Trendline is valid as it has been respected 3 times.
> Interesting to note that the peak (resistance) from the previous spike
> in early Jan may have turned into support as price has not closed below
> it on either of the last 3 trading days. Also appears a small flag is
> forming. I would expect another break north shortly. Also some volume to
> confirm the move. The last spike from the 10c low was preceded by heavy
> volume. Maybe the same will happen again.
>
>
> NCM
>
>
> Support turned resistance, turned support at approx $24 (White line at
> right of chart. Broke out of small continuation pattern in Dec. Now
> formed another consolidation pattern, this one much larger. Arrow points
> to the false break that occured the day before the capital raising was
> announced, so makes me wonder if traders bought upon hearing a rumour
> that 'something' was brewing. Huge volume today and again I would expect
> this to break up out of the pattern in the near future.
>
>
> NEM
>
>
> Another double bottom formed at the lows, arrow points to candle that
> confirmed it. Trading in a flag pattern which is a continuation pattern.
> One strong up day tommorrow and it is away.
>
>
> PRU
>
>
> Yet another continuation flag. Broke out a few days ago and looks set to
> continue
>
>
> RMS
>
>
> Double bottom at the lows, Resistance turned support @ approx .55c.
> Descending triangle formed. In trading halt pending capital raising. Be
> interesting to see what price this is at and therefore whether the
> pattern will hold.
>
>
> RSG
>
>
> Another continuation flag, price broke out strongly 3 days ago. Note the
> lack of volume during the flag formation. It confirms the pattern. Price
> couldn't hold the break of resistance around .70c. I would expect a
> continuation of the move above resistance in the short term
>
>
> SBM
>
>
> Trendline is valid as it has been respected 3 times. Huge breakout today
> o good volume. I actually purchased this for a short term trade at the
> candle the arrow points to. On that day it broke support (blue line)
> that had previously been resistance, went down touched the trendline and
> reversed, closing above support.
>
>
> SGX
>
>
> Double bottom at the lows with arrow pointing to confirmation candle.
> Another flag pattern formed with a break out three days ago, with very
> strong volume today. Closed on its highs today. Should continue to rise
>
>
> SLR
>
>
> Price has just touched trendline for a third time, continuation flag
> formed. Horizontal arrow points to last candle which saw sellers take
> control early before losing it completely to the buyers who drove the
> price all the way back up and closed it on its high. Very bullish
> candle. Reasonable volume too. I would very much expect this to break up
> out of the flag shortly
>
> TRY
>
>
> Last, but not least TRY. Trendline respected a number of times, making
> it valid. Yet ANOTHER continuation flag. Note the low volume during the
> flag. Volume should spike on the move out of the pattern which could
> occur any day

Sold for $28.50 the FAZ I bought at yesterdays close @ $26.15.

Just trying to stay nimble in these markets....

Not sure about the effect of reinstating the uptick rule either, #2. It was abandoned as the result of a SEC commissioned study but that analysis was done during a period of stock market expansion. Did bear raids and naked shorts have a role in the crash? I dunno but I have my suspicions.

Back in @ 6.33 and 6.02

wow, sure is quiet on the board right now. Guess everyone is watching with bated breath if the S&P holds support, resumes its rise, etc.

I definitely blew it with my Darden puts, thankfully a very small position. I still think the stock is headed in the toilet after reviewing most recent balance sheet(still something like 80M cash vs 1.3B current liabilities), just need to learn to exercise patience before trading...

Looking at the market today, it almost feels like commodities want to power higher while everything else: financials, industrials, tech, etc tank. But that's not supposed to happen, is it?

Time will tell i suppose...

ps. stupidest trade of the year was getting stopped out of GG calls yesterday morning. brutal...

...

Working in the office today...maybe that was enough of a pull back.

I'm staying on the sidelines until after OP EX. It's too volatile for me right now. I shouldn't be able to make 10-15% a day, which is what has happened for the past 4 days now. Greed is trying to get the better of me and I'm stepping aside to let my head clear.

Good luck to you guys.

Watching both. Indicators (MACD, STO) are positive since before noon, but action is in sideways channel--negative divergence. Both remain in S-T (intraday) downtrends until proven otherwise. Upside breakouts would be 6.46 on FAS and 8.15 on DOW. Happening now! JMO. DYODD.
2nd - Nice job yest/today w/ FAS!

[edit: 1:00EDT - False breakout; both now back in the sideways range. Indicators no longer positive.]

Pretty nice short squeeze going across the board in coal stocks today. A weak dollar is highly beneficial to U.S. coal producers.

Bill,
I completely agree with your thoughts. They set up the fall so the big banks can swoop in and save everyone from destitution, charging us interest to borrow our own tax money back from them. It's never been more clear to me who's in control, which people are too connected to fail, and which are fodder for the connected. I've always believed the Democrat/Republican thing was much like professional wrestling where there's a bad and good guy on stage but off stage they're partying together and just like brothers.

I also clearly see that this whole Executive bonus issue is just a smokescreen for the real problems. Take AIG for example. Since September they've given over 160 Billion to GS, BAC, some states, and a host of foreign banks as well. The money the politicians are grandstanding over is only 165 Million, chump change compared to the 160 Billion of our money AIG handed out to the connected players.

And so we saved AIG from bankruptcy so it wouldn't sink the financial system or did we save it to pay off the connected few. Can we honor some contracts and not others if we "save" AIG? Why is it OK to hand over 1000X more money to the connected banks than the executives were supposed to get? In my perfect world bonuses are only paid based upon great performance but if AIG was stupid enough to write contracts saying that employees get bonuses no matter what happens then why are those contracts any less valid than the contracts the connected banks collected on.

If you follow the money, it seems that whenever AIG gets a big load of money the major banks make big moves. In September after AIG got the first 85 Billion and paid it to the banks, these banks immediately sold most of their massive stock holdings. Hello, over 2K drop on the DOW in a couple of weeks. I'll bet the same kind of thing happened in February as well.

I've had it with the connected banks and will try my hardest to never do business with any of them again. If they end up getting control of the entire system like they want, it may be difficult, but they're the ones who started this war, not me. And I'll be damned if I'm going to support their system.

Rob.

Dear Bill,
I totally agree USD should fall sharply and I also fell the exporting countries,esp Asia, 'may' have a forex fight to support their exporting business model. I remember you mentioned that months ago that each country may try to lower its exchange rate to be more exporting competitive.

can you walk through this idea that USD is falling vs. others' exchange rates reaction? I'm in a puzzle.

appreciate :-)

ps: I'm long in GG when it was around $16 until now. It's one of my 2 trades in 2008. definitely too aggressive as I put my 100% capital in it....but I'm a true believer:-)

http://www.nyse.com/press/1235647172819.html

For writing this morning, prior to the open when futures were pointing higher:

"...I am concerned that this rally may be entering the sucker stage sometime soon. We're back near 800 S and P and folks will wonder about that.

I also accept congratulations for pointing out that evergreen solar was a performer, up 17 cents from my reccomendation to a buck fifty four.

The dog pick was Sirius sattelite radio, which did a death-dive this morning but has recovered to around my "buy" price.

I sit here fondling an eagle and remarking about my lucky sense of timing, and waiting for a possible upmove to develop in Yamana or SLW. I'm more inclined to think it's Wheaton makes the move, but of course, the DOW will have more than a little something to say about that:)

EDIT: After writing this I bought Alcoa long and it went up 20 cents like a bullett. Remembering my early sale in Yamana yesterday I failed to sell into the price spike and got out with, get this, a one dollar profit. Wowee.

[I removed the last bit...Sharkie, Don't insult me or the people who associate with me, and we'll allow you to indulge (some of) your fantasies. Fair trade?]

Did anyone post their comments on the PDAC conference anywhere....i don't recall seeing anything on the site.

"At the same time, I feel a little bit like I'm making money on the fall of Empire. I don't like it very much. It reminds me of the puts I had on FNM and FRE. I made $5,000, and I felt like some part of the US died."

Dave, Dave, Dave- Get over it, man. ;)

Have some fun. Take the family out for dinner.

Well, here goes the afternoon rally, I just held through the morning activity but need to trade mornings as well.

...

Anyone else get the feeling they're allowing too many buyers in? Based on past experience, they're about to be tested.

Today's the day! My broker just called. You can lock right now.

May be good for a plunge to the low 5s on Friday. Close around 5.95 to keep the flame burning. Bump up to 6.15 pre-market. Open at 6.3. Plunge to 5.01. Before it pops back to 7+ and beyond. What do you guys think?

Of course, currencies are on the move today, and have been, basically since this equities rally began.

Here's how the majors have been doing for the last 2 months:

http://tinyurl.com/cxfmer

Is it just me, or isn't it strange that VIX is up over 7% on a relatively flat day...

Interesting, NKE up 1% now after yesterdays results. Hmmmm...

I think your game plan make sense, but I don't think we pop until Monday for the following reasons.
- The max pain for FAS is $5 and FAZ is $45, XLF is $8.
- The NYSE TRIN has been above 1.0 (1.35 now) for most of the day for the first time in 10 days.
- Add that to the fact that QT is in a self-imposed exile, we are probably due for a selloff.

IMHO!!

BTW - Thank you for posting your trades, I have learned a lot from you and others.

Hmmm, a profitable company not taking govt handouts gives hourly workers an average of $2000 in total comp (that *and stuff* part is pretty significant since some of it is discounts and some to 401K - not cash).
OR
A company that lost over a billion dollars a day and has taken the taxpayers to the cleaners for over $170B giving 73 people an average of $1,000,000 each.
....
Yes, I see the equivalence. Thank you.

I finally took some money off the table on SLW. I'm lovin this one!

I'm sorry I let this one go last week. My wife, who is a believer in the long-term prospects of SLW/WGW and DELL, has to be smiling today.

I'm considering taking half off the table at $8.15. Still believe in SLW for the long term, but a $2 move in the span of less than 1 trading day seems excessive.

I bought it yesterday @ 25+. On the theory that traders will rotate from financials into energy.

NYU- Just pooped another 2% while I sit on my hands.

You don't feel the reflationary pressure Bill mentioned will start to affect refi rates? Or maybe the full weight of the FOMC move hasn't been felt in the mrkt yet?
I'm curious because I'm looking to refi as well.

UCO straddles have all been profitable this month (latest table: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/ScJhiDfGcmI/...) This is a great instrument for straddles. Liquidity is fairly low, although growing, so it's not for big positions. With UCO trading at 9.50, there is no attractive position for tomorrow, IMO. There are however, very attractive positions for April and July.

For tomorrow, with IWM trading at 41.50, I am using an IWM 41-42 straddle, except it's an in-the-money straddle, with 41 calls and 42 puts, so it cannot expire worthless on both legs. If there are swings in this OpEx day it should be fairly easy to get out of the position at a profit. If not and you don't sell, then the maximum loss is under 40%. ROI chart vs IWM possible values at http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/03/stradd...

"NYU- Just pooped another 2% while I sit on my hands."

Mark- Interchanging an "o" and a "p" can make all the difference in the world ;) Assume you meant popped.

out of curiosity i was searching for what Japanese mortgage rates have looked like for the last couple years and came across this article talking about refinancing and the Japanese experience.

http://tinyurl.com/c6nmtu

Basically talks about how Japan has had sub-3% mortgages for a long time but it's done squat to stimulate the economy.

Personally, I never questioned the original spelling. It just seemed right.

But i consider it a huge failure as i could have made a lot of money this morning. no one to blame but myself. Still booked the gain from 1.94. but i really should have booked the additional this am.

I started taking my money off the oil and energy today. I sold issues that correlated with SP500 (that should go down some more IMHO) and hit upper channels/BB. Bulish LT but cautious ST. Planning to reenter lower sometimes next week.

My ST FAZ and TZA stop buys were not trigged yet (trying to capture a breakout), but went ahead and got some QID @ 51 in AM.

I don't see how SP500 can go higher without retesting to at least 740-750 level.

My sentiment system gave me a sell signal today, which is weird so soon after the bottom. I guess sentiment is worthless around trend change. One signal worked for sure: sell after Fed news. Had a delay fuse though.

LOL!

I locked this morning at 4.75%. In my eyes, whether it goes down or not, sub-5% is a great rate.

;-)

I like your thinking! SP could grind down to 720 even but your level looks real good.

ALOHA !!

On the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT there is a line item called "PUBLIC DEBT". Notice how they word it so that it seems divorced from the US GOVERNMENT!

For these guys OPM=OPIUM!

Just this Wed the total US PUBLIC DEBT went over $11tril USD. It now stands at $11.034tril. The ceiling on that DEBT is $12.104tril USD. At this rate the US CONgress will need to vote to raise the "ceiling" yet again by MAY!

Why do these Harvard guys even bother to use words like "CEILING"? Its truly BLUE SKY not CEILING! There is no ceiling with FIAT!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY!

"We want our money back now for the taxpayers," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

I read it like this "We want our money back! uh, I mean, for the taxpayers."

So the funds which will be paid for with our taxes are distributed, then taxed again at 90%. Meanwhile the American household gets nothing but higher taxes and inflation. Nice.

"You don't feel the reflationary pressure Bill mentioned will start to affect refi rates? Or maybe the full weight of the FOMC move hasn't been felt in the mrkt yet?
I'm curious because I'm looking to refi as well."

It's all about what works for you, the trick will be to catch the bottom. I see rates falling, and locking here would be catching a falling knife. Now of course it could go either way from here, but my bet is down because that's what the FED wants from my perspective. Anyway, the QE policy announced yesterday tells me they want to keeps rates low and will print money to do that. Printing money makes home prices go up, while FED buying treasuries keeps rates low. Are we at the sweet spot yet? How much are you financing? What would be the difference if rates were 3.75 as opposed to 4.75? What if you pay down an extra point now, how much does that cost vs long term savings?

These are all personal choices based upon your comfort level, perhaps a third refi in a year from now you won't have to pay closing costs? Maybe closing costs are a small fraction in relationship to the mortgage amount and payment savings? For instance if the closing costs were $10k and the payment drops by $1K then it would require nearly 1 year to break even but over the life of a fixed loan the savings would be tremendous. So if in 1 year you find a better rate then it might make sense to refi a 3rd time.

So the FED is buying 2-5 yr paper over the next 6 mos, which means they'll turn over the last of this paper at end of 5 yrs, and start turning it over in 2 yrs. They're also pushing bond buyers into the long end, so the curve might revert more towards a normal curve.

I think we'll see lower rates over the next 6 mos, and some real difference in the next 3 mos. The Mortgage companies will be marketing hard starting now probably, at these higher rates and soon locking in on their end once cheaper money becomes available. The situation will have reversed by the time we hear home prices are no longer falling.

ALOHA !!

Thanks ... I also got that email! Should be an interesting interview on March 24th! Jay Taylor covered the BLANCHARD COIN vs JP MORGAN/BARRICK GOLD lawsuit and his interview with the Blanchard Coin CEO was eye-opening to say the least! It gives a whole new meaning to DEEP STORAGE!

DEEP STORAGE means "in the ground" stored in a deep vault known to most of us sane people as DIRT!

Bill you were wondering about the US gold reserves. It may turn out that all our US reserves are in "DEEP STORAGE" and that the COMEX shorts(major US bullion banks like JP MORGAN/GOLDMAN SACHS) have been using unmined gold and silver for their derivatives games!

Why is it that would not be shocking to me?

IT IS WHAT IT IS!!

wow. so i would assume most of you ladies and gents are trading uxg on amex?

You can bet those insiders un-exercised preferred options were affected. Insiders retain to right to vote, where as the common gets shafted.
Why else would C go back to the Treasury for another TARP and give Treasury the opportunity to exchange the Preferred that Treasury already had from TARP 1&2 for common.
An 80% stake of Preferred shares is a lot of shares, but Treasury being as smart as a whip ended up receiving 7.1 times that amount when they converted to the common.
Now 7.1 shares of Common compared to 1 share of Preferred makes a whole lot bigger pile for those foxes in Treasury right?
And to top it off, Treasury don't have to mess around and vote on important matters like stock dilution, extravagant executive compensation, improper retaining bonuses, which ex-Goldman Sacks executive to nominate to the board, and all those other important corporate decisions. C can just handle business as usual and Treasury gets a much bigger heap of equities.

A Treasury for the people?
Now you know why the bankster run Treasury always works behind closed doors. HA!

"If the new legislation is found to be constitutionally legal, the headlines should read, "Congress Declares Back-dating Legal". That would be a Get Out Of Jail Free Card in the new Monopoly Fiat Money game."

This is known as chronologically-vectored leveraging. Fortunately, it has units and can be measured, but I doubt our regulators will bother.

Has anyone taken note how $160M of bonus pay takes precedence over most every other pressing matter such as governmental regulatory reform? What ever happened to the promised investigations into the wild pricing action of hydrocarbons last year?

I just love it when congress takes matters into their own hands to mop up the little spills and perform duties outside their realm. When will they get down to the real business of performing their own duties instead of those of someone else?

Just caught this on the wire:

"UPDATE 2-Kinross to buy stake in Harry Winston and Diavik

Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:45pm EDT

By Cameron French

TORONTO, March 19 (Reuters) - Kinross Gold (K.TO) made a surprise move into the diamond industry on Thursday, saying it will pay $150 million for a stake in diamond miner and retailer Harry Winston Diamond (HW.TO) and an additional share of its minority-owned Diavik diamond mine in Canada's Arctic.

The move will give Canada's No. 3 gold miner a 15 percent total stake in Diavik, as well as a share of Harry Winston's high-end diamond retail chain. Diavik is majority owned and operated by mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO.L).

For Harry Winston, the deal will shore up its balance sheet and provide a cash cushion in an industry that has been hit hard by the global economic slowdown.

"We've followed the diamond industry in Canada for some time and felt this was a good time to make an investment in both Harry Winston and the partnership," Kinross Chief Executive Tye Burt said on a conference call.

Kinross will pay $104.4 million for a subscription agreement giving it 22.5 percent of Harry Winston's stake in the mine, or 9 percent in the mine.

Kinross will get an additional 6 percent of the mine by paying $45.6 million for 15.2 million shares, or about 20 percent, of Harry Winston itself, by way of a private placement.

Kinross will pay $3 for each share, well above Harry Winston's closing price of $1.88 on the New York Stock Exchange, a premium that drew criticism from one analyst on the call."

The dow is only a basket of 30, where the S&P is a basket of 500. Statistics are probably more applicable to the S&P.

bought some FAZ after hours at 31.50 for a ST up move on the Geithner debacle.

[Saw this on a blog by a trader name GBT...The chart looks interesting. I think we whipsaw through Friday but maybe Monday it starts. Comments?]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I'll keep it short (no pun intended). There's just a few things I want to bring to your attention:

1) Note the strong correlation between the $BKX, $CPC, $NYAD, and $NYMO indicators (nearly linear).
2) Note the relative extremes of these indicators, and the average time spent at these extremes (not much).
3) Note what happens when these indicators come off of their extreme highs (15-20% declines).

I think this could be a "Perfect Storm" brewing

http://tinyurl.com/cjsk74

[in ex·tre·mis (in′ eks trē′mis): at the point of death
non·plus ul·tra (nō̂n pluhs ul′trə): nothing further; the uttermost point; nothing above that]

Dow has a long history, for backtesting, among other things, and, of course, the celebrated Dow Theory. Bill recommended Edwards and Magee's "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" to me, before Christmas, and I've been sucking it up ever since. It makes multiple references to Dow.

As to statistics, you'd be suprised how little difference a sample of 30 vs a sample of 500 makes to various assumptions related to Central Limit Theorem, etc.

Speaking of S&P 500, I'm kicking myself silly since yesterday, 2 pm. I spent ~1 month at the turn of the year thinking about how to deal with weighting S&P 500 (hedged and unhedged, as a Canadian investor) in my long-term stuff. I even read multiple studies on currency risks for Canadian investors. In the end I had almost decided on 50/50 - hedged/unhedged for US exposure but balked at the last minute and went totally unhedged. Groan. Has cost me +3% on the upside in this rally, so far.

'Did bear raids and naked shorts have a role in the crash? I dunno but I have my suspicions.'

I think many things will be discovered in the years to come in regards to the biggest scam in financial market history. I also was very suspicious of the Bear then Lehman collapses with the CNBC canary chirping loudly. A rumour that was passed on after Lehman;s collapse was they were allowed to fail because when LTCM was being bailed out with the healthy leaning by the Fed on the IB's, Lehman refused. Failure once Paulson and the GS crowd was a 'fait accompli' as Fulds would be thrown under the bus and GS had one less competitor. Remember, Lehman was THE Prime Broker to Commodities based Funds, Hedgies etc. killing them off made Clients, creditors and Bankruptcy meant liquidation on a massive scale. So kill the Prime Broker, drive the commodity markets down and mortally wound a lot of survivors, good job Ben and Hank. A lesson in the 'unintended consequences' category is being played as demand from non-US sources creeps up and money printing by the Fed drives cash into commodity based investment s to shelter from the USD decline.
Not a fan of Fulds or Caine but naked shorting should NEVER be permitted to destroy a listed Company, as Harvey Pitt eloquently put it, “We had another word for this in Brooklyn,, the word was ‘fraud.’”
This is the type of fraud that should come with serious penalties, read; JAIL TIME.

I made an updated .xls with the gold producer list I have compiled. I included some notes I have made on the companies. I also included a list of companies with more advanced projects and royalty interests. Strong moves up across the board the last 2 days.

One fundamentally bullish reason (aside from the POG) to make the case for smaller producers now is the continued resiliency of the gold/oil ratio which is a large benefit in keeping cash costs low for gold producers who operate lower margin operations. If I were the CEO of a smaller gold producing company I would be looking to hedge my 2-3 yr. fuel requirements now, sell gold futures into the coming rally (to lock in margins and guarantee some cash flow), and for non-U.S. operating miners I would look at a partial currency hedge against USD to hedge labor costs and gold revenue.

Enough with my opinion - here's the list. Enjoy

Jack- I defended Spitzer on this blog the day he went down. There's probably more to the story, as I don't think he would have stepped down on the basis of this one incident. If adultery and/or a liasion with a prostitute were grounds for dismissing an otherwise capable public servant, then hey, let he who is without sin cast the first stone. I just don't think there would be many left standing to be throwing any, and of those, most would have enough compassion not to pick one up. So you're right- Spitzer is out of action for reasons beyond what has appeared in the press. And it's too bad.

Noticed that there are several first time posters and infrequent posters who are chiming in now. Seems like an indicator of something.

I like oil companies over gold miners. For one thing, consider the dividends. I know some say "never buy a stock for its dividend". I say " a bird in hand is ...."

www.petrostrategies.org/Links/Worlds_Largest_Oil_a...

Rewatched Frontline's piece on Walmart tonight. My viewpoint was different today than when I watched it the first time. Anyone who studies the global data knows that the West, including America, is consuming too much of the global resources and holds too much of the global wealth.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world...
(see, for e.g. China ranking 132'nd and India at 168th in GDP/Capita.)

Walmart's success is just that realization. Like any market bubble (Western hegemony), or negatively-correlated trade pair, there requires a convergence to the mean. These aren't abstract corporate entities that can be wrecked or dissolved, these are billions of people, like us, who have hopes and aspirations of prosperity, peace, and the comfort that comes from some small bit of ownership of this planet.

The Frontline, Walmart video: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/walm...

I dunno, CP. With these new ETFs gadgets, wouldn't manipulating SH and SPY be as easy as the next thing? Oh dear, sounding like an old geezer now...

with 30 stocks and deep options markets, the Dow is much, much easier to manipulate compared to the SPX.

with over 400 comments already. Could be the beginning of uncontrolled rage.

Companies beef up security for annual meetings
Slumping stocks, layoffs, bonus controversy may fuel angry protests

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Companies-to...

That plan sounds good to me, 2nd_ave. :) Especially the last part: "Before it pops back to 7+ and beyond."

Except that I don't think there is any psychological limit at which the selling in FAS will stop -- it simply does the triple percentage move in ^RIFIN. So I am placing a buy limit order for 1000 shares tomorrow at $5, which would only require a 4.3% down move in ^RIFIN.

Right before the helicopter Ben show. The sector is hit with news that credit card defaults will hit a 20 year high and there is big credit card losses coming. Of coarse you could argue this will not effect V since they are just the middlemen and not the debt holders. Yet sectors will move together. The IYF was down 6.6 %, so looking at it positively V out performed its sector.. After hours showed a large gain. Makes me wish I bought some at the close. With the consumer saving more this sector maybe under pressure for a while long term.

David- Sorry for the lame question...What is ^RIFIN?

QT RE: >will make us all billionaires maybe not tomorrow but soon...

Yes, and I heard from the economist responsible for helping Zimbabwe out of this mess that Zimbabwean currency is refused as tender by the people now. South African Rand or US dollars only please!

I know they have property in Nevada along the Cortez trend and in Mexico. Apparently they have found some good drilling results primarily in silver in El Gallo in Mexico. However, this company has not produced any revenue since 1990. Good drilling results do not indicate commercial feasibility. Drilling holes is expensive and continues to be a drain on monetary resources. This company doesn't appear to have the revenue to develop mines on its own. Raising sufficient capital would certainly cause a tremendous dilution of the shares outstanding. Therefore, they would ultimately have a choice of either a joint venture with a major or outright sale. Who knows how long this could take? Possibly years if at all. It seems like a crapshoot to me, total speculation. I suppose it you have an expectant life span long enough, it might be worth a few bucks to play but with all junior juniors, it is risky. The CEO is not a full time employee but owns 22% of the stock. His reputation allows him to be a successful promoter of this company. The stock has been going parabolic recently. The people that got in on the ground floor are making out like bandits (banditos if in Mexico). I would suggest caution before jumping in. This is a pure speculation play.

A pithy quote to round off one of Colin Twigs "incredible charts" newsletter:

Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves.I intend to rout you out, and by the eternal God, I will rout you out.

~ Andrew Jackson, 1767-1845, 7th US President, when forcing the closure of the Second Bank of the US in 1836 by revoking its charter.

It seems that Presidents in earlier time didn't lack courage or control.

Saw this.......from the "Boston Wealth Man"

"C's headline regarding GE is this: Earnings Power and Quality Declining. Yes bull market, full steam ahead.. this hasn't hit bloomberg yet!"

https://twitter.com/BostonWealthMan

Yahoo Video with John Mauldin - worth listening to.

http://tinyurl.com/d7gmgg

i read it as the author being deflation oriented

ALOHA !!

More SUPER SPENDING as told by the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT for Wed, March 18, 2009 ... GUESS HOW MUCH our government spent on SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE/AIDE benefits on Wednesday alone?

$9.77bil USD ...

That is the most I have seen since I have been following the US TREASURY CHECK LEDGER! Usually those three line items only total around $2-$3bil per day!

The payments to Defense Contractors line item is always large as well. Usually it runs at least $1bil per day, usually closer to $1.5bil per day!

Raise the ceiling again!

Hummmm????

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/03/mediocristan-or...

Mackinaw,

Didn't watch Frontline, but I would certainly agree we are consuming a majority of resources. If we were using them responsibly everyone would eventually benefit. Think of all the universal benefits which have come from the western world's inventions — medical, mechanical, electrical — even many from defense spending of those resources. But we have also used much too much recklessly — energy comes to mind immediately — with houses and autos that consume far more than needed and simply for show.

As a policy, I am as opposed to general wealth redistribution globally as I am nationally. What is needed is a fair and responsible policy. This applies to individuals or nations. Open and fair competition without government favor or restriction other than what is needed to prevent the kind of monopolistic and greedy excesses led us to our present malaise. I subscribe to the Little Red Hen school of fairness — those who share the work share the rewards.

As for WalMart, I suggest reading "Nickle and Dimed," by Barbara Erhenreich for a first hand picture of what working there is like.