Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2009

"Fannie, Freddie could face major reform. The White House is considering a plan that would strip hundreds of billions of dollars in troubled assets from Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). The assets would be placed in a government-backed 'bad bank,' leaving Fannie and Freddie with healthy balance sheets while the 'bad bank' would try to collect as much of the outstanding loan balances as possible. A White House spokesman said "it should come as no surprise that the administration is thinking through [government-sponsored enterprises] reform," but no final decisions have been made. Premarket: FNM +4.1%, FRE +7.5% (7:00 ET)."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/154229-wall-street...

Triple RSI buys REW, QID, FXP, SSG, EEV

capitulation buys SKF, RFN

Do your own homework

FD: I hold most of the above inc QID, FXP, and EEV

Wisdom cookie from JL:

"Then came AIG. **AIG at $14 was already a base breakout on the daily**, so it caught my attention immediately. My first purchase was at $14.46 as noted.

Now, as you may have noticed for the past few weeks, I do scale in and out of positions. This ensures that I keep the majority of my gains, while keeping any losses at a minimum (I did lose once on the AIG trade after 2PM for -2%, which was nothing to me). Scaling in and out is a primary strategy for me during momentum plays.

In the next few trades, you can see a multitude of symmetrical and ascending triangles. It is important to note the volume. Volume should be light during these consolidations. On the first spike, whether it's still inside or outside of the triangle, the volume should spike. This provides the "spark" that will keep a stock moving. This applies to all trades.

My first and only loss came when a double top formed on AIG. I sold near the first breakdown. A -2% loss at this point didn't even register in my mind. Following the complete breakdown, you can see that AIG was stabilizing. I bought at the first breakout of the base stabilization and I am still holding that 5% position.

In total, I made more in one day than what most people work to make in a year as a salaried employee.

My attention has now shifted to all financial stocks at this point, regardless of price, because they all have the capability to become Spikers RIGHT NOW.

So that's that. My CIT and FRE trades followed similar patterns, but not like AIG which went totally insane. **It's important to trade what you see. Many people were confused that there was no news out. Who cares? Find out later.** Your objective is to take advantage of what is present, and the present told me I was gonna bank serious coin."

Carter Worth is saying China is due for sell off.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&si...

Tell us something we don't all know Carter....

Cool Les but in the total absence of "reasons" it is pretty hard laying down enough lettuce to result in an enormous win.

But dude I will re-read your post and hope sometime in my lifetime to do what you've just done. Like today perhaps.

I did nothing but cut n paste JL's article here.

I follow this man because in the complete lack of logic and fundamental reasoning I see the charts are our only hope in playing this casino.

Sorry, didn't quote correctly:

http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/

SYDNEY -- Australia's economic resilience continues to surprise with data Thursday showing 32,200 new jobs were created in July, sharply raising the potential that the central bank will increase interest rates before the end of the year.

Hmm? 3 part-time for each full time?

"shed 16,000 full-time jobs in July, but created 48,200 part-time positions,"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124952599707309983...

. . "why didn't shark get the memo?"

You weren't in the room!

Same Walmart job creation phenomena as seen in the US Seamus.

Part-time employed and underemployed increasingly significant in the Australian labour force.

This at the same time as housing prices are rising, pushing ratios of housing cost to salaries to levels previously unheard of in Australia.

The Australian dream.

no position

"You make it sound as if it were something new :)"

It's new to me Vad and I am becoming a most enthusiastic adherent. Happily I enjoy the technical aspects of trading, otherwise I wouldn't bother learning it.

Market Edge Daily Commentary

"As we mentioned in the past few days, the tech heavy NASDAQ has been underperforming since last Thursday. It did that again today. The short term MACDs of both the NASDAQ and the larger cap NASDAQ 100 index turned lower today further indicating a loss of bullish momentum. Techs have led the recent rally. Should they roll over, the broader market is likely to follow suit."

**************************
Off Topic--Getting blood from a stone

Excerpt from SF Chronicle:

SF: Give me 16 inches

"Another bureaucratic blip: Larry Moore, the formerly homeless shoeshine guy, can't seem to get a break. He's beat alcoholism, homelessness and poverty, but there's no beating City Hall.

After shelling out more than $400 for a permit for his shoe- shine stand - with the help of some generous San Franciscans - Moore was told last week that he had an outstanding warrant for trespassing and owed another $400. Moore said he was also lectured about the location of his stand - it was 16 inches out of place - and warned that he might have to move it."

Speaking of currencies and "stock markets going up" , since the beginning of the year Seamus has been posting about switching to the Aussie dollar, and myself to the Brazilian Real. Here are the performances of the currencies ETFs YTD:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/SnrS2v-t_OI/...

In this short time the USD cratered 35% vs Brazilian Real (that is a crash in my books).

In the meantime, the US stock markets went up - nominally, but that may just be another illusion based on the cratering USD (as Bill points out as well).

Funny thing is that I posted very much the same comment in 2007, re. the "illusions of the markets going up", and also of "gold going up" (only vs the USD). We know what was going on behind the scenes then and how it ended. I hope not, but it seems like deja vu.

BTW, in the meantime that the Brazilian Real went up 35%, the Bovespa went up another ~40% on top of it (YTD). Now that is real gain, no pun intended.

Laws of gravity will apply.

will not try shorts till around November - December... but, its coming to a town near you....

Good morning.

GRMN - Downgraded to Underweight @ JP Morgan

Ouch, glad I sold that sucker!

A fascinating little piece from Bespoke:

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/08/s...

- explains that little move up yesterday afternoon

Dave

Hey Bill. I'm thinking that stalwart of the pre-video age, that other bearded wonder, yes I am speaking of the HIGHLY unlistenable Bob Seger.

Betty Liu IS gettin' out tonight. And if not tonight, tomorrow:)

100% cash

Well then, don't leave Bruce Springstein out of the picture... "Baby we were born to run" (Jersey beach music)

"In the day we sweat it out in the streets of a runaway american dream At night we ride through mansions of glory in suicide machines Sprung from cages out on highway 9,
Chrome wheeled, fuel injected and steppin out over the line
Baby this town rips the bones from your back Its a death trap, its a suicide rap We gotta get out while were young
`cause tramps like us, baby we were born to run"

"(i) are Goldman Sachs crooks or not, and (ii) if they are crooks, which of them will be indicted?"

Probably their computer algorithms are just far superior to ours? This whole subject sounds rather like an advertisement.

What, now CSCO's done with their heavy lifting? CSCO was down following AH earnings yesterday if anybody was noticing.... DUH!

Craig- Sounds good.

I just woke up, man. It's nice to sleep in for a change.

SRS with an 11 handle? 25 handle on FAZ? I think we almost have to sell off today.

However, I won't be around to play it.

Toying with the idea of trading much less. There are probably a few entry points each year where, without watching the market too closely, one can time the major trend moves. If I miss the opportunity to make money, does it matter? Not really.

Good luck today. I'll be traveling around the Bay. Check in well after the close.

CSCO - PT Raised from $23 to $26 @ JMP Securities. Market Outperform.

--------

Note to 2nd:

You have mail.

Bill said, "The public just needs to know two things: (i) are Goldman Sachs crooks or not, and (ii) if they are crooks, which of them will be indicted?

In the Michael Steinhardt video he says "In old fashioned Russia we would take them out and shoot them." In referencing wall street villains.

see vid at about 5.30-6.00

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/08/michael_...

Well said Craig.

Dave

Bill,

Government capture by Goldman is reality now. I am not sure it's possible politically to regulate them at all.....What with all the Obama, the Googling, the congress, we have a Goldman guy here, Jim Himes....

I propose that we change the name of the country to the United States of Marcus Goldman and let it go at that.

Or...get really really good at trading WITH the computers.

Finally if nothing else solace yourselves with the notion that, according to physicists, there are probably many parallel universes where every permutation of possibility is played out...

You get where I'm going with this?....In some parallel universe, we ALL work at Goldman, we ALL make millions each and every year, we ALL own houses on Nantucket, we ALL drive new Ferrari's, we ALL date hot chicks exclusively. That puts things in a whole new light:)

CP,

I assume you are talking about gold equities, right?

Is Comcast a Cara 100? Reported earnings that beat estimates by 53% and these estimates don't appear to me to have been of the watered-down variety. Earnings have been pretty steadily increasing since 2003 and this quarter's was a record, albeit they don't sound too upbeat in their reporting.

Earnings History (scroll down to the bottom):

http://ccbn.aol.com/company.asp?ticker=CMCSA&coid=...

Earnings Summary in FT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3eb7572-8298-11de-ab4a-...

About 30 mins ago the POMO auction took place.

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm

So if the chart I posted yesterday is any indication of what is to come, then we should see a painting of the tape this afternoon. There is a lot of $$$ now available for the dealers to throw back into equities.

Anyone care to comment? I don't know what I'm seeing

Pulled out of two Vanguard funds half Tuesday, balance Wednesday — VWEHX corp bonds and VWINX 1/2 bonds and 1/2 stocks with +9.5% and + 4.5% in between 2 and 3 months.

Just too much risk in everything here. I'm going out and play in the dirt.

Grym - "I assume you are talking about gold equities"

This was a comment on the CISCO networks company, their earnings weren't something to write home about but the news was selling Cisco.

Gold Equities - There may be a pop, or a rally if the $USD breaks down further from here but GDX bears are watching closely... AUY earnings were poor, how about the other peers (I haven't investigated)?

Also might short gold if/when it goes parabolic then turns down but gold is a fast animal so fast I'm not sure I'm quick enough for a clean capture.

Craig - " Just give me my 'cash for clunkers' don't ask what it really costs and who's paying the cash. Hint: you're kids, their kids and the grandkids kids, kids, kids kids. We are enslaving our progeny.

WE'RE THE ONES THAT SHOULD BE SHOT IF WE DON'T DO SOMETHING, AND QUICK."

Don't look at me, I voted for Ron Paul. But your last comment might still apply:

Face it, we're not Americans anymore, we're retards. ;)

The other option to kicking the can down the road(and putting the monkey on the kids and great grand kids would be QE,(this would make things tough now instead of later, and create jobs if done carefully) but we're too retarded...

Something I forgot to add. On POMO days supposedly the intra day lows are set between 12:30 & 1:30 then the rest of the afternoon is running up the tape. But what I can't find out is, can this $$$ by the dealers be used to short with?

Both are flying again today.

BTW Bill, nice call on the bottoming of the $USD for the time being a couple days ago. Prescient as usual, glad to see Montezuma didn't cloud your crystal ball.

About half of U.S. mortgages seen underwater by 2011

The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March, portending another blow to the housing market, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090805/bs_nm/us_usa_h...

BEV - "About half of U.S. mortgages seen underwater by 2011"

Them's brown shoots and it's not good for banks(Taxpayers)! Let's arrange to have a chat with Obama over a beer... or we could just buy gold on dips.

Grym - "Meanwhile let's have a little compassion for those who are really hurting."

Are these the same ones who bought debt from HB&B and voted for more of the same? Their imprudent decision making process has affected me in negative ways.

If they were sold a bill of goods (which I think is the case) then you're correct, we can't blame them but after the second round of buying YES WE CAN begin pondering their sanity...

The more things CHANGE, the more they stay the same.

Just back from the pool with the kids. I've attached a photo of the place. You can see why I keep going back, even if water isn't my favorite element. That and the ladies who, in such a mild alpine climate, are rarely seen with less than a jacket and jeans. There's only two months a year where we can let it all hang out in Switzerland.

Look at the 1-5 dollar favourites! Doing their own thing, even when the market is tanking. That's what gets me worked up! What joy you could have had with ABK and FIG today if you are nimble enough. MACDh is telling you when to go long and when to short.

Sorry photogray, wasn't around to comment on your request.

I've no money riding on these charts but quel bonheur to be able to read them!

Does anybody know how the trades in the dark pools are updated/reflected in the prices in the overall market? i don't understand the logistics of the dark pools.

Of a 40 years, more or less, of "successful" Republican policy.

Thirty four million people on food stamps. Fifty million people without health insurance. Probably half the nations adult population is either unemployed are dramatically under-employed.

But understand this....This is the promise of Republican politics. This is the end result, the goal of all the trickle down, all the tax reductions, all the tax avoidance schemes. All the goshdarn "trickle-down" economics, a now-completely discredited notion. As is the idea that markets are free. And that the best and the brightest get the furthest. And that those who have nothing are evolutionarily inferior. It's all bullshit. Everything you ever learned and believed is untrue.

Speaking of swimming pools, I came across these photos recently...thought I'd pass them on.

Swimming pools in the Maldives

If gold ultimately pays off perhaps those Caraistas invested in the yellow metal can spend some their booty and visit this paradise.

Article on seasonal's.

If you own gold, are thinking about buying or selling gold you should read.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Downey/aug042009.html

Craig - Ah yes, but I have two theories integrated into my thesis:
1) Man evolves externally.
2) Man may currently be evolving in reverse.

Now here's a cheer for both sanity and evolution:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/offbeat/2009-04-26-sw...

Those Germans are always stirring up trouble. So much for Les' day at the beach! ;)

I guess it had to happen after a streak of good luck. I sold out of my TYK and SDS at the lows this morning and bought FRE at the highs, only to be stopped out about 8% lower. In addition to this, I sold all of my AIG positions at significantly less gains than possible yesterday....

The one good thing I did do was buy more IMMR at $4.18.

One of Charlotte's oldest and best BBQ places closed down last week... and its located in center-city, not the outskirts....

Grym - Why do we need jobs? To pay our taxes, buy our food, pay for energy? What if the citizens decided to become more self sufficient, simple and less dependent?

What if the gov't took those trillions that are going to the bankers (and enriching a few) and instead invested in some R&D to empower it's citizens? Less telling us what we can and cannot do and more collaboration on solutions.

We must also consider the story of the ant and the grasshopper: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ant_and_the_Grass...

Perhaps someday we will have more ants in our society who plan ahead better.

Bev I used to frequent a site "Market Swing" - they tracked the POMOs and TOMOs religiously. I never saw any real correlation between Fed Open Market Operations and market.

Dave

CP: Tis true. Think about it in terms of fact.

1. America, a melting pot. At first a strength due to hybrid vigor, IE: unlike crossed to unlike resulting in genetic strength. Each succesive generation (back-crosses)reduces said vigor. Add in the dividing cultural/religious arguments RE: religion in school, I don't want to pay if my kid can't evangelize, I want different schools than the other race/culture/religion or I want private religious schools but I refuse to be a part of the whole of society and pay taxes for public schools (penny wise, dollar foolish) and you compound it with loss of vigor and voluntary ignorance.

So that covers both parts of your thesis.

Hence we get DEVO, the band named after the theory of devolution.

Don't have a link - believe it was "www.marketswing.com" - was a free site with lots of postings by members

Dave

what was that $10 pop in gold just now,
seems to be settling back down but still.

my spidy sense is tingling, any time USD goes up along side gold,
something is about to take a hard dump down. if the lacklustre action in the gold shares doesnt reverse then i think we will have our answer.

Hmmm... a few days I gave a very detailed explanation of how liquidity rebate works, broken down by three posts... I don't think you read it. Sentence "whether or not the SLPs are getting paid for truly increasing liquidity or simply amping-up volume" makes no sense, sorry.

Shark,

http://tinyurl.com/ltnktj

Seems that it's related to Radian announcement.

Mike

If I and someone else trade the trade the same share of stock one million times in a very narrow price range then I have created a lot of volume but not necessarily a lot of liquidity.

Even if liquidity is added but only a very select few can access this liquidity and possibly the price bid/asked is never published at all, how does this benefit retail traders?

What you describe is impossible. I will have to ask you to get back to those posts and read how liquidity rebate works.

I don't mean to be rude but I posted them in answer to your question. You ask it again now which makes me question whether you read what I answer.

Okay... without reposting whole lot of it, just one simple comment:

Liquidity rebate is being paid for posting bids and offers, and after they are being taken by someone else. It's NOT being paid for taking someone's bids and offers. Taking someone's bids and offers leads to a FEE, not rebate, and fee is higher than rebate, so you can't have a buddy to take your bids/offers and share rebate with him - you both will share loss, not profit.

I can't understand how this is still open for interpetations and is a matter of being confident or not, reaching conclusion or not. It's a fact, it's not a suggestion or assumption. Direct outcome of it is: in order to be paid for liquidity one must:
1. Add it by posting bids and offers
2. Have it actually taken by someone else by actually hitting those bids and offers.

For the world of me I can't see how those questions can still remain after realizing how it actually works.

Another big sell off.

ALOHA !!

The article out on Hank Greenberg's (the other Hank)$15MIL settlement on manipulating financials was at best yet another pathetic hand slap. Even Greenberg commented ... "I appreciate the SEC's recognition that I personally should not be charged with any fraud." Once again the high paid CEO admits no wrongdoing! Sounds like Ken Lay ...

Yet lower down is this bit on Warren Buffet that brought up some past suspicions of mine. I found it odd that after Buffet got his butt whipped for his $19BIL USDX short position that the SEC opened a probe on General Re(one of the Buffet companies)and the probe was dropped after Buffet "liquidated" his huge silver holdings back a few years now.

"A criminal prosecution resulted last year in the conviction of four former executives of General Re and one former AIG executive. They were accused of inflating AIG's reserves by $500 million in 2000 and 2001 through fraudulent reinsurance transactions that made AIG's financial condition appear stronger than it was, boosting its stock price at a time it was looking to acquire American General Corp. AIG was General Re's biggest client at the time.

I guess Warren Buffet had no idea what was going on over at General Re! Sounds like what Ken Lay used to say.

I had a great deal more respect for Buffet when he stuck to his old business model of "real wealth", like GEICO. Take a down and out company, rebuild management and make them profitable. That's the Warren Buffet I could get behind. When he was buying $5BIL of Goldman Sachs preferred shares he was also turned into one of the media clowns on CNBC. Sort of like a booksigning PR tour through Wall Street! Nothing like a high profile stock guru to put in the bottom for GS!

While I understand the fiduciary responsibility of any CEO is to make money for his shareholders there comes a time when making those profits on the backs of hard working Americans is unacceptable. There is a fine line between what Buffet did with GS and General RE and what Lay did with ENRON, when ENRON pillaged the California utility company customers running 1000% leveraged futures scams off pre-arranged rolling blackouts! GS commits fraud and apparently so does General RE. Buffet must be aware of "common denominators" and their side effect on his legacy. Grandpa Walton he is not ...

Hummmm??

I don't know CP but I closed out all positions - went to cash toward the eod today. Most significant positon was QQQQ puts - made about 7.5% on those. I'm feeling very comfortable with cash going into the (un)employment report tomorrow.

Dave

It's Sidney, not Sydney :)

And yes, 70-300 is marvelous, for airshows as well - just look previous post on the same page, "Canadian Snowbirds". On 4/3 Olympus sensor it's actually 600 mm reach in 35mm terms! Requires some steady hands when shooting fully extended :)

Nice pics Vad, tell us more about your camera. Some nice beauties hanging out on the seashore there... ;)

Thank you CP...

Olympus E-30, to me the best Oly DSLR up to date. As much as we often miss simpler life, gotta love the technology sometimes, advances are beyond imagination.

Here Vad, took the camera for a shakedown on the lake the other day. I've got attention spread across so many activities that I've yet to read the instruction manual (I used to be a keen photographer - got some great photos of Cambodia/Burma), but it takes a decent photo without my help.

No, Vad, but I think there is a problem when people who get paid to supply shares are the same people who are allowed to have an advance look at and then trade those very same shares using computers located in the exchanges where the trade takes place. It seems like a conflict of interest, is unethical at best, and ought to violate anti-trust laws.

Anyway, this has been beaten to death at this point and I would like to agree to disagree and move on.

looking at the big picture. What do these stocks have in common?:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FRE&p=60&yr=1&mn=...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNM&p=60&yr=1&mn=...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LYG&p=60&yr=1&mn=...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=C&p=60&yr=1&mn=6&...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=60&yr=1&mn=...

some crap stocks going parabolic or nearly so. How long they gonna keep that up for? Can't be too long, the rate some of those are gaining altitude. Ever flown a Pitts Special into a vertical climb? Works until the machine hits about 40 knots, then you toss her over and its all green shoots! (the view that is, as you speed back towards earth in a vertical dive).

Oooh is that the S&P I see turning over?

morris,

you are mixing in very different issues effectively changing the topic. Having advance access to orders flow before they get posted is outright criminal, and I said so in my very first post on the topic. In that same post I said that it was important for us to understand what is legitimate way to trade and what is criminal - because if we don't, that's where we will get shortchanged as interested parties try to distract us with make-up issue while real ones remain unnoticed- again. And that's exactly why I went into great pains to explain how it works and to separate harmless things from really dangerous. That's also exactly why I took issue with update on flash orders today - to underline that if this is all they do, it's nothing but another distraction.

HFT and SLP is not a problem. Advance access to orders is. Flash trading is a minor problem if at all. Dark pools existence is a major issue.

And... if you want to end the discussion by agreeing to disagree, maybe stop making arguments?? :)

"MiGs sold for $5"

Stay away, mine drinks fuel like you wouldn't believe!

DrSchoon has another article on Goldman Sachs :
http://tinyurl.com/le9bmw

He is scathing,but rightly so in my opinion
Quote....
"The lofty intent of those who founded the US has today been effectively subverted.
Democracy no longer serves the role intended by America’s founding fathers. Today,democracy serves instead the special interests that control America through a highly compromised, manipulated and mis-named “democratic process”.

THE TWO-PARTY DANCE OF DISASTER
Instead of helping to solve society’s problems, the democratic process has been diverted by powerful and well-organized special interest groups. This diversion is accomplished by exploiting the conservative and liberal tendencies of the electorate, a diversion that enables special interests to maintain control no matter what party wins.
By exacerbating the natural tensions existing within society, special interests use politicians and the media to control the political dialogue, emphasizing issues that divide and inflame the electorate thereby diverting attention away from the destabilizing,dangerous and self-serving aims of special interests.
After every election, either conservatives or liberals will feel that victory has been achieved, their ideological opponents temporarily vanquished, their political ends accomplished; but nothing could be further from the truth as both conservatives and liberals have been duped in the process, a process best described as political pornography—as the aftermath is always somehow unfulfilling, no matter how exciting the initial attraction and foreplay.
In the end, very little gets solved, problems persist and proliferate, and the electorate becomes increasingly disillusioned—that is, until a new candidate is found by the special interests to again raise the hopes of both conservatives and liberals that this time it will be different.

Hits the nail on the head and I don't think it will change.... ever.

Les these are Excellent as well. I have never gotten a chance as of yet to get to the Alps... you make me want to go badly... when i was young i invented a company i used all the time in my play and later on in my teen years... I called it the Swiss Company and the slogan... "the Beautiful people" now those were the days of no worries...
:)

Kaimu worried about you all with that huge hurricane coming... Cat 4 is nothing to sneeze at so keep a look out...

In a brilliant piece of investigative reporting, Chris Martenson (original article here) has uncovered that the Fed, merely a week after issuing $28 billion in 7 year bonds (which Zero Hedge discussed previously) via its puppet, the US Treasury, of which $10 billion ended up being purchased by primary dealers, has turned and bought 47% of the primary allocated bonds in Open Market Purchases. This is undisputed monetization removed simply via one primary dealer and less than 5 days of temporal separation in order to leave no easy trace. As Martenson points out:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/feds-ust-pomo-pyr...

Well it did, and it didn't ... :P

http://tinyurl.com/m3mnep

Well Grym, you are entitled to be a wrong rodent if you choose.

I've been arrested for civil disobedience and got something accomplished by standing up to wrongs in the past so I'll just wish you well, even if you're wrong. Men question authority and stand up for what is right, they don't cuss at people or tell them to shove it, they DO SOMETHING. I've spent a long time here learning a lot about finance and I work my butt off so I have earned the right to speak my mind whenever and where ever I choose, to whoever I choose, including you. We can still do that in America. Sometimes you have to actually get off your sorry ass and DO SOMETHING. For me it was taking possession of a critical hillside at a nuke plant to get the damned state to stop screwing the ratepayers. I (and about 100 others) wore the cuffs after they begged us to come down (we were planning on staying a while) and they knew they would NEVER win their case or prosecute us so they dropped the charges and the WPPSS bond default became the largest in history at that time.
We stopped three nuke plants with 100 times cost overruns. I just had a baby daughter so I had a lot to lose, my career, my family, my home to name a few. So don't make sorry ass excuses and tell ME you can't get it done whiner. I helped stop a 3.4 BILLION DOLLAR ratepayer boondoggle. It took several years of hard work but if you DO SOMETHING besides whine on a blog you can accomplish a lot.

I think a lot of people lost what they have due to their own ignorance, lack of oversight and LAZINESS and I'm entitled to my opinion, like it or not. Whatever I've lost is my own fault I'm not going to be a whiner and blame it on someone else. There is always something that can be done if you don't lay down and take it like a mouse. Anger without action is just whining.
Sorry, I can't throw a brick to Ohio. How about getting off your duff and DOING SOMETHING??? Leaders ORGANIZE, whiners DO NOTHING and LIE DOWN like mice to be run over. I GUARANTEE they aren't reading your blog entries and they can't hear you squeaking from inside your house. If you DO SOMETHING like organize a march in the streets and announce it to the press they will hear and SEE you on TV and in the papers, otherwise it's squeak, squeak, squeak, little mickey. You might have to work at it for a while to be heard but you will be heard. They might actually pay more attention to a bunch of old geezers marching than they do youngsters, but you have to DO SOMETHING besides whine. That's what MEN do.

Vad, just tell them how much rain you get and they'll stay home! That's a heck of a lot of pool maintenance for swimming perhaps from late May (if you're lucky) to late August. Unless it's indoors....

Why, the rain here is 24/7/365... (Grin)

Grym - "The question becomes, How long can the Fed keep the balls in the air?"

They're going to have to do it for some time to come most likely. This will tend to push the $USD down and equities up(along with many other things), so where's the best place to park cash?

Good job Mark, I'm sure you were invited to their very first pool party!

CP- Not once, my friend. Did you catch FTWR's report today? I'm going to watch it PM for a trade either way. Same for HEK, reports Monday. It's been coming up nicely.

kaimu- It's got to be great for a few rides, no?

ALOHA !!

Yep, for all the South/Southeast facing beaches which is where I am. We'll go down and check it out. Too big and I don't have any fun! I'm not a young fool any more, I'm an old one! HA!!

kaimu - I think Mark could fix you up with a nice pool there on your mountain, your boar could use a gorgeous water trough as well.

Les, the problems of Taylor Bean aren't likely to be good because of the effect on CNB, but I hear there's good news rumors floating around for CNB. This might extend to GFG as well? Don't know but look at their charts, something might be up....?

Let us know if you discover something, GFG is big and might have an impact on the broad market, they've hemorrhaged money in Cali. mortgages. Fridays are typically bad days for these banks (potential FDIC closures).

from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&si...

This is the same Tudor who predicted 87 crash, right? I did not see the movie before it was pulled down from youtube.

This would agree with other people (notably Faber and Swanson) who predict a few more months of rally due to falling dollar.

DrDover- You know, I've been reading variations of your post for the past three weeks on other sites. And so far, they've been wrong.

I'm still waiting for capitulation on the part of the bear bloggers I follow. So it could be we churn for a long period of time. I think getting out was the right move. Whereas holding SRS another day would put you at risk for yet another sleepless night.

The mental work involved in taking a loss is difficult. No way around it. I would go so far as to say that we avoid taking losses quickly partly because we want to postpone the hard work it takes to deal with it.

So here's my advice (not that you necessarily need it, but someone else might).

(a) Don't ruminate on the loss. You may think you can't stop yourself from thinking about it. You can.
(b) Whatever your balance is now, that is your new starting point. And it's a valid starting point. Not a handicap. (If nothing else, your ending balance right now is the truth, and we would all agree that the truth is a good place to start.)
(c) Comparing your current balance with your balance last week is useless. It will drain the very energy you need to recover quickly. If you have to get into comparisons, why not think about all the other things that could have happened? At this very moment in time, every bad thing that has ever happened is happening to someone somewhere. Of the bad things that could happen, taking a loss in the stock market probably ranks in the lowest decile, if not lower. So you're ahead of 90% of people to whom something bad happened (today) to begin with. Cheer up.
(d) You know you're going to get over it at some point. Why not now? Why postpone it?

I have other thoughts I could pass on, but no time right now. Tomorrow's another day. Enjoy the evening- I wouldn't waste another second on the loss.

2nd - I think you got caught up in the chant from the crowd and lost your focus on following/reading the tape. The same thing happened back in October for a while.

You're a headstrong person in reality but very flexible up front, if you're going to keep trading, may I suggest you start reading the tape and listening more carefully to what the data are telling you?

Keep the positions smallish and add to them when they're going your way(one thing I have yet to "master")?

Not investment advice, DYODD

Hi CP, GFG doesn't look so interesting. An initial opening thrust that faded. Resistance at the 50dma was respected.

CNB is worth a watch, as long as financials remain flavour of the day. It's got resistance issues as well, so unless we're about to power through to new highs I'd be looking to take whatever profit on CNB may make today and expect it to fade with friday arvo profit taking.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNB&p=D&yr=0&mn=4...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GFG&p=D&yr=0&mn=4...

5 min. charts:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNB&p=5&yr=0&mn=0...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GFG&p=5&yr=0&mn=0...

DYODD etc etc.

I looked at TNA and FAS performance 3/8/09-5/8/09 and we are looking at +200% and +400% respectively. Sounds like they worked flawlessly if one got at the bottom and got out at the top (I did not). Even paired TNA+TZA or FAS+FAZ would bring good profit. I question the common wisdom that holding longer than a day is a no-no. Now, I would nor hold it ever changing or range markets or longer than a couple of months though.

Les- Sorry, I guess that was not clear. He would NOT short any of the big financials here. Trust me, he knows the game and understands the players and is NOT happy about it, but for the short term it is what it is. He has no position at all right now in financials.

BTW- How come your English seems better than mine?...and the Girls in Europe must have lots of coin!

The NASDAQ is starting to look bearish, don't you think? RSI 7 has broken down from the Distribution Zone, and the MACD is about to make a bearish crossover.

For this market to continue higher now, not only would the S&P have to stay above 1000, but the NASDAQ should probably have to cross 2000 as well. It doesn't look to me as if that's about to happen. Just a thought.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ

BTW- How come your English seems better than mine?

Misspent youth. Reading when I should have been doing homework in high school. Tis why I am a literature bum with no skills and job prospects at present time.

...and the Girls in Europe must have lots of coin!

?? Why, you want me to set you up with someone? ;)

MarkW - I've been in Paris off and on for the past few weeks. Let me tell you, its not cold. Flip flops every day, shorts, and more sun than you could rationally want.

It's raining today, but it will average 78 degrees all this next week.

Well that's the rumor. I'm in Chartres today visiting a friend, but back to Paris on the afternoon train. It rained here earlier this morning. Trains in France are awesome. Such a comfortable way to travel. In the US we are so missing out. Buy a ticket, board 5 minutes later, relax for an hour, and walk off the train on the other side at the city center. Air travel just sucks by comparison.

I haven't been trading quite so much lately - I was mostly incommunicado Rome for 5 days. In Paris I can, but there are so many distractions. :)

I have this urge to short oil. If Bill is right about the buck, oil will have hit its lower high at around 72, and it should be good for a quick 5-10 point move down if the buck rallies. Since it seems to be heavily leveraged to the buck, its moves are pretty dramatic by comparison.

Les,

1. That news item crossed the wire real time. Here is full text:
Thursday, August 06, 2009 9:28:12 AM
The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc Completes discretionary equity issuance, notes it raised $900M, up from $750M anticipated prior
- The company sold 56,108,703 shares of common stock under the plan at an average price of $16.03, for total gross proceeds of $900M. The Hartford intends to use the net proceeds from the program for general corporate purposes, including the possible repurchase of outstanding debt.

2. HIG gapped up long before this crossed the wire. I don't know whether this particular news served as a factor to a further move or not.

3. Trading decision didn't have much to do with news. It was typical Open Break setup - something I play for many years. Key to looking at HIG in a first place is this comment:
[09:21] {Threei} so... what's our next AIG?
[09:23] {Threei} this kind of moves rarely happens in vacuum... traders start looking, and usually find, the next name to run in a similar fashion

4. There is nothing arcane in it, really, it's just a complete structure of the play manifested in two price levels :) It simply means:
- break of 17.50 is a long trigger,
- 17.35 is support to place a stop under.
- If 17.35 is broken before 17.50 is, a trade is invalidated.
- This gives us 15 cents initial risk which leads to exit criteria:
- if we are scalping, 1:1 risk/reward ratio will be reached around 17.65-17.70
- I alerted that this trade is capable of more than scalp, so we held or partialed out, for the eventual exit above 18 which is 1:3... not bad for 3 minutes work...

You can see how those two numbers define whole trade, with entry, risk management, exits - right out of the textbook :)

Illini,

Yeah, you're right. I just have too many friends who have worked hard all their lives who are now being badly hurt and it gets my back up to hear them called "retards" for their misfortune. One of my sons (age 44) has lost three jobs, has a house he can't sell (with a 20% downpayment) and could only get part time work for over two years and has gone through his savings.

But I'll drop it here.