Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Jul. 16, 2009

Hah! My Grandfather was a cop-ended up being a chief in a city south of Boston. Anyway, as rational as they come, he said like clock-work at full moons "business" always picked up.

This is not good news for the recovery. The GOVT does not care about the middle class. their actions speak louder than words.

http://tinyurl.com/ne8gjp
Excerpt
The number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes soared by nearly 15 percent in the first half of the year as more people lost their jobs and were unable to pay their monthly mortgage bills.

The mushrooming foreclosure crisis affected more than 1.5 million homes in the first six months of the year, according to a report released Thursday by foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac.

The data show that, despite the Obama administration's plan to encourage the lending industry to prevent foreclosures by handing out $50 billion in subsidies, the nation's housing woes continue to spread.

"like clock-work at full moons "business" always picked up."

You can't blow off observations like that. Correlation is not causation, but if you're a cop (or a trader), what difference does it make?

LOL! I usually don't take these things that seriously because it is dependent on the observer, but my 'student' graduated at the TOP of her class at YALE and was incredibly intelligent and was probably my best student ever. *very* observant.

So you taking even odds? LOL! Not me....looking for an edge. 7:1? Where were you on Monday Jimmy?

7:1 against 930.

Well there you go, sometimes the odds makers are odds breakers.

Someone has to take the other side. I would imagine trading desks the world over made a ton yesterday taking the other side of the massive short positions retail investors had on.

I wasnt saying that prices shouldn't fall. just the fact that, as the pace of foreclosures increases it doesnt bode well for all the quick recovery talk or 'the worst is behind us' talk.

The expectation is for 'new' leading sectors. Maybe we just get stuck with the old ones>>XLF and SMH.

...

The trouble is these now losing are not necessrily the people who bought during the bubble. these are people whose jobs are disappearing and the ability to continue paying on a reasonable mortgage contract.

to "Big O" (No, not Oprah) It's the JOBS, stupid!

Thanks for sharing the video Bev.

"2nd do you know this to be a fact?"

No. I'm joking about the Vegas odds, of course. And guessing about the massive short positions, based on my read of sentiment, along with isolated posts such as the Tim Knight post that vinod pasted. You have to think, if well-known technicians were positioned short, that their followers would have been also. JMO.

How many 'facts' are there in the market, anyway?

...

"The trouble is these now losing are not necessrily the people who bought during the bubble. these are people whose jobs are disappearing and the ability to continue paying on a reasonable mortgage contract."

I suspect those chanting "do nothing" are hoping for lower prices so they might catch themselves a piece of the pie at lower prices.

I think that was the Philadelphia Fed Business Survey (released at 1000 AM) that kicked off the downward move in gold (and SLV, and USO). Interestingly enough, SLV has recovered all it lost at 1000, but GLD has not. USO has recovered that, and then some as well.

I totally agree. One learns by being confronted with the consequences of making a bad choice. HB&B seems immune from this. I'm guessing bad decision making will continue apace as a result. Too big to fail will continue until the failure is really and truly spectacular.

Afternoon all.

RE:>Too big to fail will continue until the failure is really and truly spectacular.

Well one needs to look at history, for there is nothing new under the sun. Does anyone remember the URL to the Google Video of the Money Masters (or whatever its name was). Would like to see what brought these SOB's to their knees historically.

There is only 1 way. for every working citizen to strike. and not return to work or pay taxes or bills, until this is fixed.

Writing letters to official, signing petitions, electing the 1st Black president, putting in power the same devils who caused this up top, will not work. but American's still are asleep. Scrambling to find a job, desperate for the false American dream, contributing to a bankrupt social security, brainwashed by television and the fear of losing their job.

had to sell some this morning after a 10% move up in 2 days. looking to re-enter soon.

still holding WEN and SPNG and SPY and some TOL.

It's pretty easy for me to see past the smoke and mirrors at what's going on and I'll just say that if HB&B wins, home prices will crash. They don't have much skin in the game, so they'd like to default and buy back in at lower prices. Simple enough, taxpayers take the hit either way. It's at least ten years too late to be thinking about free market economics, think about the economic burden hundreds of thousands of jobless and homeless families represents.

Sure, we'd all like lower prices but that isn't going to happen in a holistic sense. It's coming time to pay the piper...

ALOHA !!

Off the CIT news release today-"The plight of CIT, which provides loans to about a million small and midsize companies, particularly in the sagging retail sector, poses a crucial test of the Obama administration’s attempts to stabilize the nation’s financial industry."END

Oh come on guys ... It is obvious OBAMA favors insolvent US Banks over small business, just look in the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT, it is there for all to see! Obama has spent over $360BIL USD on banks but only $3.7BIL USD on the SBA-Small Business Admin, around 1% of the TARP for banks and AIG and GM.

It is a fact that small business is the backbone of America. That is where companies like MSFT, GE, AAPL, DELL and GOOG start. That is where the bulk of America's jobs come from. To put $350BIL USD into banks is contrary to a "real plan" to restart the economy. Where are those two academians the ROMERS, can't they figure that out? Please what new technology has GS innovated other than FRAUD?

From all the strategies I have seen so far from the Obama administration and his Economic Team I would say that these people are doing their best NOT to revive this economy. They could care less about small businesses.

On the CIT side ... these FACTORS are bogus. When I was in business in the San Francisco area we were approached numerous times by FACTORS wanting to loan us "payroll" funds based on our receivables with the various school districts we had contracts with. The best thing about PUBLIC WORKS contracts is that you do not have to go too far to find delinquent accounts and it was rare in my days when the State Of California and the US government could not pay their bills, so using a FACTOR was a complete joke! Whenever I would hear of a contractor on a PUBLIC WORKS project using a FACTOR, like CIT, I knew they were asking for trouble. Usually it was for payroll ...

We never financed anything and we ran multi-million dollar projects for years. Our experience with the SBA was that we had to essentially prove we didn't need a loan to get one! That was standard for every bank loan or surety bonds we were after when we were in our initial growth stages. What that tight money policy forced us to do was spend more time on smaller projects as sub-contractors in order to work our way up to PRIME CONTRACTOR status on PUBLIC WORKS bids. Once in that rarefied air we were untouchable and in many cases we told the SBA and the banks to get lost whenever we got a knock on the door from their solicitors.

Being a PRIME CONTRACTOR was like being Goldman Sachs. We were first in line with suppliers and subs with the bids. Even the engineers and architects were our pals! What a HUGE advantage it was to CONTROL the money supply to my suppliers and subs. I literally had the power to put a company out of business! Yet, I believe we were "benevolent dictators" as we always remember the hardships General Contractors forced upon us in our lean years. We never believed that was the way to build a solid team ... by threats and coercion ... and it worked so well that even IBEW courted us as we were taking too much of the limited supply of projects. Eventually even the school district project managers and engineers were calling us and asking us to bid their projects. We got to the point with the Mt Diablo School Dist where we didn't even write change orders any more. We would call a very informal lunch meeting at the school with the electrical engineer and the project manager and horse trade changes that resulted in absolutely no paper work past an RFI directive that confirmed our horse trading at lunch, so that made the project managers look like frickin' geniuses. How rare is it to have a project with no change orders or maybe two at best? The work got done on time and in the end when the light switch was flipped the lights came on and the punchlist was gone. No change order meetings, no delays ... WIN-WIN and everyone was a star!

Hummmmmm??? There are ways to do business where we all win, but that requires honesty and integrity, the basis of COMMON LAW! Fat chance that will ever happen in Washington DC ...

G'day ...

Jesse - I am still maintaining my bullishness on airlines. I do admit there are some serious short term concerns regarding debt financing for the likes of UAUA and AMR, both of which have been involved in some financings at very high yields. Likewise the owners of that debt are probably aggressively shorting the company stock against the high risk debt (12% notes,etc). Trouble for the arbitrageurs is that there isn't much equity available to short at such low market capitalizations. The general concern is that either of them could run into cash troubles at some point in the next year which could force bankruptcy. So UAUA and AMR have a good deal of risk. I think CAL is substantially less risky due to lower levels of debt and less aggresive financing (a generally less risky capital structure and would be poised to capture business from other carriers were a large competitor bankruptcy to occur).

On the flip side, I see the longer-term economics of the airline industry coming in line more than we have seen in possibly a decade. The post-911 reaction to the airline industry was to throw government money at the industry, which spawned a number of regional and subregional carriers that had enough financing to continue operations. Meanwhile, airlines built an abundance of capacity and devoured each others margins.

Fast forward to 2008-2009. Many regional carriers have gone belly up after facing the 2008 oil spike and subsequent collapse in consumer demand. Large carriers have aggressively cut back routes and been granted anti-trust immunity to coordinate cost structures through "code sharing". Capacity has fallen off substantially. Oil prices have reverted to levels where carriers can actually hedge without taking extreme risks. Once demand begins to return, albeit slowly, I think the airline industry will have its cost structures much better aligned towards profitability.

ALOHA !!

There were about 300 of us here in HILO, HAWAII who went on strike against the US government and their "taxation without representation" back on April 15th. I was one of them ...

The media and celebs did their best to present our efforts as some sort of fascist neocon anti-society rally against AMERICA! They were wrong but they prevailed in making that movement as invisible and short term as possible!

Seen a TEA PARTY lately?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090716/ap_on_go_co/us...

So, basically, Paulson is arguing that the financial system would've collapsed if BofA hadn't bought out Merrill Lynch, and that collapse would've harmed the shareholders much more than taking on the tens of Billions of debt from the purchase.

And, oh by the way, of course the Federal Reserve has the power to fire the CEO of BofA. Doesn't this amount of power bother any of those congressman?

I closely follow the rydex data on short/long positions, and there were no "massive" short positions before this week. Some increase but not extreme. Besides, the short positions did not go down much in the last couple of days.
I bet the buying was mostly from institutions uneasy about the earning seasons, but now encouraged by GS results (scam IMHO).

I still cannot believe at the timing of TOF's long. I was debating about it over the weekend and decided to wait. Now some trend following indicators are turning slowly into the long direction. So much for the H&S and TA.

All I see in the underlying "plan" are political agendas.

How many 'facts' are there in the market, anyway?

Not too many, admittedly. However, if the average shmoe-ron has become an adept shortist, then maybe I'm even dumber than I look.

Meaning that I don't really think Joe-Average does a lot of shorting. And if he does, he does it at the bottom!

NOT.v has doubled over the last 2 days. Can anyone explain what is driving it ?

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?not.v

Craig/Mark- In addition to UNG, I took a shot at HNU.to @ $USD 3.77. Taking it off now @ $USD 4.28.

That pretty much erases yesterday's 0.7% loss at the craps table!

Congrats 2nd, glad to hear it. I just off'ed a portion of UNG (12.42) and did the same.
Not that I was trying....but if it comes to me I'm obligated, no?

Can't find anything either except the "no material change" press release from Noront. somebody know's something - I jumped in late just in case it keeps going as I've been watching NOT for a while now and feeling the disappointment of missed opportunity...

Watching it very carefully though

Stv

I think we've pretty much worked our way thru the first wave of "bad choice" home buyers and now the people who had a down payment and good prospects for paying their loans have lost their jobs, run out of 401(k) and can't even go to look for a job unless they sell the house (tough to do) or declare bankruptcy.

I know a few whose kids have been in that spot and are moving back home. A couple whose charitable agency job was partly State of Illinois supported have not gotten that part since May of 2008. Now the agency budget has been cut to the bone. There went their mortgage.

I'm hoping Obama's 2012 election is toast.

Today I closed out my IWM 48 straddle from a few days back at a nice profit. Paid 80% profit on invested capital.

I just reinvested some of the profits in an IWM July put spread as a hedge against some longs in the portfolio.

Bought IWM July 51 Put @$0.21
Sold IWM July 50 Put @$0.07

This makes my max loss $0.14/contract and max gain $0.86 contract. Normally I would not try options spreads so close to expiration. But, with the amount of volatility we saw yesterday, I think it is an opportune time to put on this hedge. If the market and IWM continues higher and the spread expires worthless, I do plan to scale out of some profitable long positions to bring more of the portfolio back onto the sidelines going into next week.

Yep, I sold a partial position as it looks like $13 has some gravity and $usd is as weak as it's been lately threatening to go up (UUP), but I'm looking to $14 with the remaining shares.

DAG buy alert 3 days ago, bought today.

EEV/SSG in accumulation mode.

Why would MSFT, with 25b cash, issue 5b of debt? Here is one reason.
As a convert from Windows to Google's free, new knock-em-dead Chrome, I see a lot of tarnish on MFST's future.
I started using Windows in 1986.
Believe me, Chrome is a absolute gem.

You mean for your tax free HSA funded prescription medicine, right shark?

cuz the Triple RSI hasn't bottomed for UAUA.

no position.

and max pain is 3 bucks for August.

JMO, no position.

Interestingly, as of right now, UNG is up 7.91% while August NG futures are up 4.77% and September ones are up 3.85%. So UNG is not always inferior to direct investment in the NG futures. :)

otherwise a very quiet day thus far.

"there are children living in log cabins, who milk cows before dawn and then walk 5 miles a day to and from church, and who use this blog as an educational tool so that they can learn about finance, blow off their parent's popsicle stand and move to New York City to get rich.

No. It's the children growing up on farms who are now in the catbird seat. In twenty years it will be all about blowing off (the disgrace of) your parents' Wall Street background and moving back to the land to get rich.

Shorted NOK at 13.38...I have no doubt this will be lower in a month or two.

Bought CAT at 33.77.

I just asked Jimmy the Greek.

I don't know if I should make a play, or take a hike. Obviously, if I had hung on to QLD/URE/UYG (overnight) it would have continued to generate decent gains.

sitting on hands 2nd till you get the mojo back.....remember dont force trade the trade. :')

or
"dont try to make it all back tomorrow"

go with the gut I guess.

kaimu- Yes. If they legalized drugs, it would eliminate (a) 90% of the crime in South America and Asia, as well as (b) 90% of the funding for terrorist groups, corrupt criminal justice systems, and a motley collection of self-centered ----heads around the world, most notably those that run certain countries.

despite this I will try to scalp SRS into close as its hard to get long right here, in @ 18.50. 940 seems far enough. Tighter stop than yesterdays short attempt.

Not yet, I'm not playing on the tracks today. Looks like the 415 (950) is building steam around the bend...

I traded USO (just sold partial) took your TBT trade for a couple spins and the killer kryptonite UNG.

I see the ultras getting up off the floor though right about now, but oooooh they're scary....:>)

2nd, tell me FAS wouldn't have been a killer trade today.

TN_blogger

"I will most likely take the summer off as I am assessing my life and reducing stress. "

Can I come? Maybe I can pick up some ideas.

Tom Waits.... I'm trying to avoid Small Change's demise....

'Cause, 'cause Small Change got rained on with his own .38"

bsi87, on stockcharts I see all 3 have been under 30 and now the daily and weekly have moved back up thru 30. What am I missing? Other than the max pain comment.

By Tom Waits

Small Change got rained on with his own .38
And nobody flinched down by the arcade
And the marquees weren't weeping
They went stark-raving mad
And the cabbies were the only ones
That really had it made

And his cold trousers were twisted and the sirens high and shrill
And crumpled in his fist was a five-dollar bill
And the naked mannequins with their cheshire grins
And the raconteurs and roustabouts said "Buddy, come on in"
'Cause, 'cause the dreams ain't broken down here now
They're walking with a limp

Now that Small Change got rained on with his own .38
And nobody flinched down by the arcade
And the burglar alarms been disconnected
And the newsmen start to rattle
And the cops are telling jokes
About some whorehouse in Seattle

And the fire hydrants plead the 5th Amendment
And the furniture is bargains galore
But the blood is by the jukebox on an old linoleum floor
And what a hot rain on 42nd Street
And now the umbrellas ain't got a chance
And the newsboy's a lunatic with stains on his pants

'Cause, 'cause Small Change got rained on with his own .38
And no one's gone over to close his eyes
And there's a racing form in his pocket circled 'Blue Boots' in the third
And the cashier at the clothing store didn't say a word
As the siren tears the night in half and someone lost his wallet
Well, a surveillance of assailants if that's what you wanna to call it
And the whores hike up their skirts and fish for drug-store prophylactics

With their mouths cut just like razor blades
And their eyes are like stilettos and her radiator's steaming
And her teeth are in a wreck, and nah
She won't let you kiss her but what the hell do you expect?
And the gypsies are tragic and if you want to buy perfume
Well, they'll bark you down like carnys
Sell you Christmas cards in June

But, but Small Change got rained on with his own .38
And his headstone's a gum ball machine
No more chewing gum or baseball cards or overcoats or dreams
Someone's hosing down the sidewalk, and he's only in his teens

'Cause, 'cause Small Change got rained on with his own .38
And a fistful of dollars can't change that
And someone copped his watch fob, and someone got his ring
And the newsboy got his pork pie Stetson hat
And the tuberculosis old men at the Nelson wheeze and cough
And someone will head south until this whole thing cools off

'Cause, 'cause Small Change got rained on with his own .38
Yeah, Small Change got rained on with his own .38

For you rockers out there, here is one from the "Spin Doctors" - Pocket full of kryptonite.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSh2bcE8nno&feature...

something is up with NOT.V: a 50% jump so far today after a 50% jump yesterday. I sold with some profit 1/3 of my position yesterday and just sold with a very minor loss another 1/4 of my remaining position (1000 shares) at US$1.30 (which I purchased at US$1.41). If NOT.V reaches US$1.90 tomorrow, then I'll be able to sell another 1000 shares with a minor profit (which I bought at US$1.94). And if NOT.V drops down to $0.5 again, then... well... I might just do nothing and use my money elsewhere. :)

I don't know if UAUA bottomed in all 3 time periods at the same time. Just looking at risk/reward and feel like there are easier trades or perhaps no trade to be made here ...unless it's a very ST trade.

JMO, no position.

Uber-bear Roubini has thrown in the towel: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si.... Jim Cramer is practically orgasmic.

I'm going all in on regional banks. I mean, it's safe now, right?

Shorting a small amount of SPY common right here.

So as to take advantage of the volatility in SKF, I decided to sell the SKF shares I bought earlier today (flat) and instead sold some August $39 puts on SKF at $3.50.

From Twiggs today.

"Whatever it is that the government does, sensible Americans would prefer that the government does it to somebody else.
This is the idea behind foreign policy."

~ P. J. O'Rourke

Thanks for your observations, Freedom57. I was looking at the futures prices at INO.com and apparently it has some delays in reporting the prices.

I don't think UNG takes a contango hit when the futures are rolled over -- the NAV of the fund does not change at that moment. It simply exchanges a larger number of the less expensive contracts for a smaller number of the more expensive contracts. I think the contango eats up UNG gradually throughout the month, since the front month futures are initially priced at a premium to the spot price but then gradually fall toward the spot price if the spot price remains flat. If the spot price rises, then futures rise a little less since some premium was already built into them at the start.

The fact that UNG can deviate from its NAV can definitely explain the possible price discrepancies between UNG and the front month futures.

purchased at close yesterday flat this morning. Surprised to see positive movement this arvo. Was anticipating a squeeze tomorrow after neutral consolidation today. Reengaged at closing with a little TYP as well. Bought some TAG for a longer trade, which is best Agro ETF performer as of June 15 article I read, found in yahoo TAG's financial blog. Thanks TOF.

Unemployed as of tomorrow arvo, to some relief, and can now concentrate on uni, chart studying, cooking, house cleaning, kids homework, getting in shape...blah - the list still feels endless.

night all.

thats the headline on cnbc

lets see how ibm reacts after market. might be the next catalyst.

still early but not the standing ovation.

tut tut CP, black and white is out :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5XHRo5y5FE

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgpp...

SDS. Down heavily but is that double the rate of inflows compared to outlfows that I see in the block trade column?

Explanation appreciated. TIA.

I know, but it doesn't seem to me that the Sun-Oracle combination will create a monopoly of any kind. Does anyone know of any serious issues in this respect that the Justice Department might be worried about?

Great stuff Bev - Thanks for sharing - I was in awe after watching yesterday's launch as it always amazes me how we can send all that equipment from earth to outer space.

Have you all seen this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSwWy4E6I04&eurl=ht...

I just bought some DBA shares at $24.1, since the 6-month DBA chart indeed looks attractive and I am pretty sure DBA will be above $24 in one month. The August $24 DBA puts I sold today will most likely expire, and I want to have some real upside potential with some real DBA shares.

If DBA won't rise above $24 within a month or two, then it will most likely be due to the whole market selling off hard, in which case I will finally get some benefit from my short positions. So in either case I'll be happy. :)

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-...

"The S&P 500 failed to break through support at 880 and rallied strongly, warning of a bear trap. A strong bull signal. Breakout above resistance at 950 would confirm — and signal a primary advance with an immediate target of 1000.

ALOHA!!

US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT JULY 15, 2009

This was the Mother of all days so far during this FY 2009! Today the US PUBLIC DEBT blew sky high by $50.5BIL USD in one day, ending at $11.52TRIL USD. So while JP Morgan and IBM and Roubini were all pumping the markets with Kudlow & Cramer in tow our President was busy hijacking our kids future through the back door!

Then as if to rub our noses in the massive one day DEBT FEST, our beloved Congress spent another $9.5BIL USD on July 15 for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. As I reported yesterday the total for those three line items blew past $1TRIL USD on Monday. Seems like $1TRIL USD is not enough for OBAMA and the DEMS!

Obama spent $2.8BIL USD on Military pay for active duty soldiers today. Active duty ... so that means they aren't coming home like he promised? Obama blew another $1.3BIL on Wednesday for Defense contractors.

Then he blew $5.6BIL USD just on Treasury debt interest payments.

Another $700MIL USD for Unemployment benefits in one day for all those jobs Obama created.

To top off the July 15th DEBT FEST the US government issued another $74.4BIL USD in Notes and Bonds to fund all this mayhem!

Why do any Americans bother watching TV? Its all lies ...

"No one should expect that any logical argument or any experience could ever shake the almost religious fervor of those who believe in salvation through spending and credit expansion." - Ludwig Von Mises

2nd- Almost makes me miss seeing Dan Rather wrapped around some lamp post in the middle of a hurricane.

SLW about 3 steps from the cellar door, reaching for the door knob. TBT almost at the front door with UNG closing fast.

Here is what I just read on Roubini's blog today:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over 'this year' and that I have 'improved' my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus is that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year. On one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium-term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation), thus leading to a crowding out of private demand.

“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector. Now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak. I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such a large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy. But as I have consistently argued, the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double-dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

So when is a recession not a recession any more?

Looks like it depends on what is, IS. Or when, when is. Or...?

Gurus come and go, but I miss the showmen of the old days...

Howard Ruff with his Ruff Times had his day and his following.

Joe Granville! Now there was a class act (emphasis on "act"). I remember him walking on water before making his predictions one year. It was a bit like the claim that Jesus knew where the stones were. (Joe had a plank slightly submerged in a swimming pool.)

Cramer is a novice, a piker who needs to rely on his noisemakers and yelling. But they come and they go. Granville missed about 10 or 15 of the next couple of decades by staying bearish through the longest upturn in my lifetime.

At least if the weather man is wrong people seldom lose any large sums of money. I wonder do farmers follow the forecasts or just look out the window.

ALOHA !!

Grym posted - "I wonder do farmers follow the forecasts or just look out the window."END

I am a farmer in Hawaii and almost every day is perfect so I do not even bother looking out the window nor do I follow forecasts ... It's just ... GET UP AND GO! HA!!

David - Yes, that's the e-mail Roubini sent me earlier today!

So he sees a "light" for us ... These TAX REVENUES will have to do a 180 reverse U-TURN before I will say there is a light! Then the "light" for the monetary system I see is actually a M1 Abrams tank doing 40!

How is it truly possible to have a "jobless" recovery. Who is recovering if there are no jobs? Who is it that pays taxes?

Roubini is overpaid and over exposed like the rest of the CHIMP & PONY SHOW!

ALOHA !!

Grym ...
What about GEORGE GILDER in the 1990s? Where is that guru these days?

Then in the same TECH BOOM there was Henry Blodgett and Mary Meeker. I am sorry to report they both still have jobs. Why is it those two never did jail time? Talk about hype!

Cramer ... I think he should do jail time for his Bear Stearns call, at the very minimum a Martha Stewart sentence. After that I am surprised he has any credibility left at all!

Kudlow? Someone hide the CNBC defibrillator ... PLEASE!

Kaimu said - Then in the same TECH BOOM there was Henry Blodgett and Mary Meeker. I am sorry to report they both still have jobs. Why is it those two never did jail time? Talk about hype!

Nick Taleb in one of his interviews pointed out that all the economists who were being quoted by the media with their variously positive outcomes were the same folks who did not see it coming in the first place. He wondered aloud why that was, and if we should believe them this time around.

Henry Blodgett is a particularly egregious case. From Wikipedia:

"Henry Blodget (born 1966) is an American former equity research analyst, now barred from the securities industry, who was senior Internet analyst for CIBC Oppenheimer during the dot-com bubble. He was later employed by Merrill Lynch.

.... Currently Blodget is president of Cherry Hill Research, an industry analysis and consulting firm, and is the Co-Founder, CEO, and Editor in Chief of Silicon Alley Insider, a blog about internet business trends and research. He is also a frequent contributor to the magazines Slate, Newsweek and New York. He also writes another blog at clusterstock.com."

He still keeps going, like the energizer bunny, often on Yahoo Tech video.

Is there no shame?

I had a cool red Toyota pickup in late 80's. Nice, except prone to an oil leak in front end. Easily fixed, per the mechanic advisor to my buyer, who got a good deal.

Ford and GM may make bigger trucks but those are for folks who need bigger and not better.

$20.00 oil! Fire up the 68 camaro Illini.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&si...
Bob

So the poor folks who get a mod on a loan that's 25% underwater can no longer walk away, AND the banks get to repackage their modded loan up and send it off to GNMA, get it off their books, and receive $1000 for their efforts courtesy of the US Taxpayer. Now that's what I call a lose-win-win-lose. That's change I can believe in! Yes We Can!

ALOHA !!

Oh Susan ... you are too much! I laughed way too hard when I read "qualification #1" in order to get hold of that 125% loan ...

In all cases, to qualify for this program, you must:

1. be in financial distress

2. demonstrate income to support the new mortgage, and

3. have a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac Loan now. Your lender can verify that fact --just call the number on your bill and ask if you have a Fannie or a Freddie loan.

My how times have changed. As I have said before in the late 1980s to get a business loan I had to virtually prove that I did not need a loan to get a loan! Now if you are not in "financial distress" you don't qualify!

More GSE crap ... Unreal ... its the toxic tar pit of the AMERICAN DREAM!

The fact that as a mortgage holder you have to call up to determine whether you have a FNM or FRE loan is other worldly!

The FRAUD GAUNTLET should be patented and stamped "MADE IN DC"!

Come on OBAMA quit the BS and just send every US citizen(even babies and OPRAH)a check for $50,000USD! You want to get re-elected don't you?

I hear that OBAMA will start up his campaign for 2012 this December! HA!!

Every so often somebody mentions the"average" or "retail" investor and wonders when they will go for the gold.

I doubt if many even know gold is available for investment. Gold is what is handed out at the Olympics every four years.

Sorry, but the average person in the best of times is too busy with American Idol to think about saving or investing. If he still has a 401(k) today, he's likely to be tapping into it, not wondering where to best invest.

High profile and hyper touted individuals who write the pop investment articles and books and get major TV exposure are a primary reason a lot of unsuspecting, nice people got screwed royally last year and are now swallowing the recovery solutions with hope and a prayer.

Politicians, pop-pundits, rating agencies should all be made to look for real jobs and stop trashing those of honest people!

There, at least I feel a bit better for the rant.

I think I also read the mortgage holder becomes a renter and is no longer allowed to walk away.

I can tell you that here in Illinois, where there are virtually no real jobs left, anyone who manages to sell his house (or can walk) is leaving. To be legally required to stay put is tantamount to slavery. Great for the future US economic recovery. A good excuse for more H1B visas though.

It's 10PM Mr. President, do you know where your people are?
"Of course, they can't go anywhere without my permission."

Is there anyone with any common sense at all?

nemo, Thank you, I would have missed that.If only we had a real Department of JUSTICE !!! Bob.

OHLC charts are now green for updays; red for down. You can add technicals. Also, a company's daily results are displayed alongside its index (e.g. Toronto Venture exchange for junior miners). Quite cool.