Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Jul. 30, 2009

Today's market moving events and times:

830 Jobless Claims - consensus 585k
1030 EIA natgas report
1300 7 Year Note Auction ($28 Billion)

Auction of the 5 year notes was poor yesterday, which has increased speculation that the longer dated 7 year auction will perform worse. How will Jobless Claims affect the auction? S&P futures are up +10 now, how about after 830? Good news for equities is usually bad news for bonds.

Denninger even claimed that yesterday's 5 year note auction effectively failed. An excitable fellow, but perhaps with an interesting viewpoint:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1267-U...

ALOHA !!

I have been an active "bidder" in Public Works(government contracts)for two decades. I was just a lowly PRIME CONTRACTOR on electrical construction projects in the San Francisco area. Even with the little I know on protocol between the US government and "bidders" it is only common sense and "morality" that dictates behavior when competing for work.

This though is classic Wall Street ... This man and these three Wall Street companies are the epitome of greed and arrogance in America. This is the face of Wall Street you rarely get to see.

CHARLES EF MILLARD-PBGF
GOLDMAN SACHS-BIDDER
BLACKROCK-BIDDER
JP MORGAN-BIDDER

This article is like a movie script from the movie WALL STREET that Oliver Stone did back in the 1980s.

Essentially MILLARD let Goldman Sachs write the "specs" for bidding a financial contract to run PBGF. I cannot tell you how often that goes on with government contracts in Public Works, but I never have had the opportunity to see it in the financial sector. Kudos to whoever helped uncover this massive fraud.

What remains to be seen is what will the punishment be. It is clearly "illegal" in any book I own regarding government contract bidding. Even if the very "religious" Mr. Millard did not know bidding rules, surely he had a conscience or some sort of moral code after years of Catholicism? Eh ... maybe not!

Just reading these e-mails and the embedded arrogance is just mind boggling. Corruption is rampant and knows no bounds.

LINK: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/29/business/29pensi...

This is the core of greed and arrogance in America today; GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

I am convinced that you cannot have any significant CHANGE in America until we change our monetary system first. Every other attempt is nothing but a band-aid for the status quo.

- ELIMINATE THE US FED
- ELIMINATE US INCOME TAX

The US FED needs to disappear and the US government needs to shrink dramatically.

IT IS WHAT IT IS ...

ALOHA!!

It just occurred to me that there may be some readers here who do not know what "writing specs" means.

When you bid a contract, either private or public, there are plans(blueprints) and what is known as "specifications" or "specs". Specifications give detailed descriptions of what quality and type of material and equipment must be used on the project.

Usually when you find yourself "writing specs" it means you are dealing with an architect or engineer who is one of the following:

- INEPT
- CORRUPT
- INEPT AND CORRUPT

After all you are doing their work for them ... Even before that it comes down to "playing favorites".

Obviously Mr. Millard was inept and I would say immoral or else he would not have "consulted" with Goldman Sachs. The immoral part comes where Mr. Millard in the midst of the bidding hands Goldman Sachs his resume.

The person who writes specs is in a position of privilege and they know it. They have in their power the ability to exclude their competition and that is exactly what Goldman Sachs did when they made part of the specs to bid for the PBGF "an international company". That excluded all money managers who did not have offices outside the USA.

In Public Works construction projects that means the engineer will team up with his favorite lighting supplier and let the lighting supplier rep write the specs and then charge the US taxpayer for work he did not do. The lighting supplier will then write the specs tight enough to exclude competition from "equals", even thought Public Works contracts must have material specs that allow "equals".

In one instance we found out the hard way what "equals" means when we tried to substitute a PA system that we considered an "equal" in quality and performance only to find out that the District shot us down because they already had one manufacturer of PA systems in all their schools and did not want to switch to a different one due to parts and service contracts. None of that was in the specs prior to bidding the job and would have been illegal if it were. What was even worse was that the engineer approved our specs only to reverse that approval once the District(owner)found out. We even had a special meeting to demo the product to show we were proposing to install a PA system that exceeded the specs. Even after a bid you can still get burned. What we found out was the Owner(School Dist) was Judge, Jury and Executioner all in one ... Public Contract Code be damned! Manufacturer reps for Public Works are not all that different than Goldman Sachs in the way they "position" themselves as close to the owner or the owners agent as possible. The word "position" means wine and dine so to speak.

I only got to write specs once. It was not even a bid, but it was for a General Contractor to change the lighting system in a large library. That was the only time in my career that I got a General Contractor by the cajones! HA!! Not too long after that I realized the only way to beat them was to join them.

When I was a kid, twelve years old, we lived down the street from an Engineer who worked for Bechtel. He always had all sorts of new electronic gadgets at his house. After getting into Public Works I figured out how it was my friend's Dad who worked for Bechtel, got all those "special" high tech gadgets for free.

Its human nature apparently ... Hummmmm???

That has me worried. If they're still shorting with abandon at SPX 990, there is no question we're going much higher.

Who were the smart ones back in the day, anyway? The guy on the roof with the rifle? Who probably never took a shot, and quietly walked out the back when it was all over. (To the wife and kids and another 30 years of good living.)

Don't lose money. Doing nothing. Standing aside. Different ways of saying the same thing. Usually a topic of conversation among old timers still around to talk about it, no?

"In Public Works construction projects that means the engineer will team up with his favorite lighting supplier and let the lighting supplier rep write the specs and then charge the US taxpayer for work he did not do. The lighting supplier will then write the specs tight enough to exclude competition from "equals", even thought Public Works contracts must have material specs that allow "equals"."

This post had me LOL! Not only do they write the specs, but contractor and supplier tend to have special kick-back deals that enables the contractor to ice the bid, undercutting not only other's specs, but price as well, the contractor pulling in a few points on a lighting discount in this case.
Good stuff Kaimu!

Ah, the double standard.

I think the urge to do take a stance on the current movement is making it quite a dangerous one. Many people want to make up for poor performance over the past 9 months. There are chasers, and then disbelievers who insist that this thing will tank at any moment.

I'm not a day trader, so I've been covering puts sold in Nov - Mar, and selling 1/3 to 1/2 positions on longs bought in Aug - Mar, some at a loss, some with gains, and some just flat.

I haven't been a buyer at all in recent weeks, but it sure stings in retrospect. Still, I'd rather be an old timer living to tell my tale!

I do think that I sold 1/2 my QLD prematurely at 44.50 3 days ago!

In other news... those employment numbers sure make you want to rally

Came in to my friend's workplace a few days ago. He said the Chinese, in concert with some of the other Asian nations would soon create their own reserve currency and would continue to stockpile metals with which to back at least 5 % of their currency. We will have a hard time selling our massive debt and will instead go to a print-policy as opposed to a sell debt policy. Bernanke will not be re-appointed, Larry Summers will be the new Fed chief. Japan will, in the future join China's sphere of influence and be less of an ally of ours. Ditto the South Koreans. Wild stuff I know.

Goldman did say we were going to SPX 1000, right? My only question is, do we get there today?

I have to say this market has me totally confused. We lose 584k jobs and have a bad treasury auction and the buck isn't doing anything and yet we're up 20 points, led by - REITs and financials? Was there a big earnings move I missed?

Its perplexing, to say the least. One would think that a big move in equities would at the very least cause bonds to sink.

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K, as they say.

EOM

goldie's selling the position they built at 10.50. JMO

You've got to change your evil ways... baby
Before I stop loving you. You've go to change... baby
And every word that I say, it's true.
You've got me running and hiding All over town.
You've got me sneaking and peeping
And running you down
This can't go on...Lord knows you got to change... baby.
When I come home... baby
My house is dark and my pots are cold
You're hanging ëround... baby
With Jean and Joan and a who knows who
I'm getting tired of waiting and fooling around
I'll find somebody, who won't make me feel like a clown
This can't go on...Lord knows you got to change
Yeah ... Yeah ... Yeah ...

I'm looking to unload or lighten up in the blue zone or probably sooner. If it does clear resistance then over head supply is thin and it may hit the 1st target level. Bad job #'s, companies reporting double digits loss, etc. and the market still soars, I'm looking for the "fire exit".

http://tinyurl.com/nsy38m

~~~~~
"More earnings reports with declines, but seen as positives because they beat Wall Street’s estimates.

Aflac earnings down 35%. Hartford Financial earnings down 14%. Avery Dennison’s down 50%. Exxon Mobil’s down 66%. Goodyear a $221 million loss. Rockwell Collins earnings down 17%. Cummins down 81%. Parker Hannifin’s down 80%. And on and on.

But the market doesn’t care. It’s all about speculation, hype, and hope."

[Sy Harding]

Very strange. I use firefox which loads my tabs automatically. Much to my surprise this morning, My Cara tab directed me to some spam website - and the address said http://caracommunity.com! See attached screen capture. Fixed the problem by running IOBIT Security 360 free download. I see others posted during the time I was hijacked, so it seems to be a local problem.

KC

p.s. I felt very isolated without access to the Cara blog!

Does it ever feel to you that at your precise moment of purchase the market collectively recognizes your inherent amateurishness and sighs in gleeful recognition of that fact as the price IMMEDIATELY reverses? It's as though you are covered in wool saying "BAAAAAAHHHHHHH" and heading for brokeback mountain.

Well, folks I thought CMM.V was pretty much finished, but it looks as if they managed to pull a rabbit out of a hat and arrange a gold based financing:

"Century Mining Corporation (CMM: TSX-V)
announced today that the Company is in receipt of a financing term sheet for a
US$25 million prepaid gold forward facility from a major international bank
with a large gold trading business."

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/July200...

California may be the center of the marijuana trade and the controversies over its legalization. But Florida has surpassed it in one important category: the Sunshine State is now the country's leader in indoor marijuana cultivation. It is a potent distinction because most of the marijuana grown this way is cultured hydroponically - that is, mostly without soil and with a carefully calibrated cocktail of chemicals and lighting - to create some of the highest level of highs on the market.

In 2006, Florida law enforcement here discovered 480 homes growing marijuana indoors. Last year, 1,022 grow houses were busted. "This isn't your grandma's marijuana," quipped a Miami-Dade narcotics officer at one bust as he tossed garbage bags stuffed with confiscated marijuana into an unmarked police truck. Levels of THC - the agent in marijuana that produces feelings of euphoria, and in some users mild hallucinations and paranoia - have risen dramatically because of indoor techniques. Thirty years ago, most marijuana contained about 7% THC. Today, indoor growers boast THC levels of 25% or higher thanks to the additional care that indoor plants receive.

I refuse to believe that hydroponic marijuana is any better than mountain-grown B.C. pot. Its just absolute nonsense. Furthermore, my grandmother never ONCE smoked pot in her life.

F6, she didn't smoke it or didn't inhale? - apparently there's a difference ;)

Putting on a low risk Aug put spread on JPM.

Bought 10 JPM Aug 36 Puts @ 0.387
Sold 10 JPM Aug 35Puts @ 0.225

Cost = 0.162/shr
Max Loss = 0.162*10*100= $162 (if JPM closes above $36 at Aug expiration)
Max Gain = 0.838*0.10*100 = $838 (if JPM closes at or below $35 at Aug expiration)

Friday 4PM.... a close above the monthly EMA 13 reading is must for the bulls.

http://tinyurl.com/nvmnc6

thanks Bev, and the EMA 34 at 1140 or thereabouts. Achievable?

So we can use 13 and 34 EMA's for monthly charts as well, can we?

F6- Could you bring a few samples to the Bahamas next January? We'll put it to the test at the back table with Shark and vinod.

Les

A cross over of the EMA 13 & 34 on weekly or monthly charts confirms a change in the trend. But you will notice it does lag some what the actual time of change. The monthly chart I posted above shows just the 13 EMA. If you notice that when ever a monthly close is above or below the EMA 13 line a trend reversal is noticed a lot sooner.

Sorry about this. It wasn't a malicious thing -- it was our domain registrar doing something stupid.

For those who care about the technical details, we had two accounts with the registrar. We told them to move all domains (including CaraCommunity.com) from one account to the other so we wouldn't have to deal with multiple accounts. We had been managing the DNS (the mapping of the CaraCommunity.com domain name to the actual network address of the server) in that account. When they moved the domain, they pointed to the old DNS information...which I guess they then deleted since we didn't have that account anymore. Since they didn't have any information, they of course sent users to their lovely landing screen which is full of ads. I'm pretty pissed about it, but we got it fixed. Only some people would have been affected because DNS information is cached all over the place, so many people could find the old (correct) server address.

I get the sense (indirectly, since no one seemed interested enough to respond to my post) that the hijack was global, and didn't just affect me. But it's hard to tell because of the lack of response to the issue. Did the rest of you have the same problems I did?

KC

Yes.

korvus>> I actually understand everything you posted on the Hijack issue... My first "job" is TELCOM with a "major" company in the USA... I appreciate the details as my inquiring mind always wants to "know" & "fix" things as a Project Manager...
Thank YOU for all you do to keep this site up, functioning and running as smooth as it does... I bet your MTTR numbers are excellent!
:D

Craig

You're right it does. But I went ahead and changed the color of the EMA 13 line to gold and kept it night. Looks good. Ok... your turn! ;-)

http://tinyurl.com/pxk9wv

I will be purchasing Gold coins soon.

I was wondering which would be the best to purchase:
a. Krugerrands
b. Canadian Maple leaves

I am considering factors such as artistic value and confiscation value. Can gold be confiscated by the USA government if it is a coin? I have seen quotes by a local coin shop of 999.99 is that good? What is the range recently?

Thanks for any guidance in this matter

Thank you for fixing this - it was annoying, but only for the morning.

Barrick had a good earnings report, probably due to the fact they hedged their copper. So what are the odds that Yamana's copper hedges worked out for them?

Craig,

Those are some very attractive markups. Are you certain that it's straight-up legit?

Yamana is about patience. Trade it if u like but be aware u may find it bought as this is the most cost effective way for the Barricks, Newmonts et al to add ounces. FD Am long Yamana and Redback Mining.

I think if you want to collect'rare' coins that great, but I also notice how it's usually gold coin dealers that try to sell the collectible coin argument so they can charge a premium for coins. Same for gun dealers and that worked for a while too.

For example, are they going to open everyone's safe deposit boxes or search their homes without warrants? Can you imagine the uproar and political liability? I'm not that paranoid.

Best comment I've read in ages!!! lol!

shark_attack asks - Those are some very attractive markups. Are you certain that it's straight-up legit?

golddealer.com is straight up legit. They have a nice place about 15 minutes from LAX. Theoretically you could fly in to LAX, take a taxi to their shop, drop a boatload of cash on their desk, collect your gold, and fly back all in the same day. You can even get a free donut if you get there early enough.

As for which gold you buy - it depends on where you are, and where you might be going to use them.

If you imagine being in europe, I'd buy 100 gram bars, because they work in grams over there.
If canada, I'd get the maple leafs.
If the US, I'd get either 1 ounce bars, or the US gold eagle.

Eagles sell for a premium, but its not that dramatic these days.

I think Canada also has an issue about taxing gold imports with a purity of < .999, but that's just memory.

One interesting thing is, the US coin is legal tender - $50. Of course its an ounce of gold, but for customs purposes, it's $50. There was some interesting discussions I read about paying people in gold eagles at a substantial discount to their salary, allowing them to save mightily on their taxes. The catch is, the IRS expects you to pay taxes if you sell an eagle. But if you just use it as a savings mechanism, its a real win.

Kaimu, are you paying your workers in eagles yet? :)

of Breakfast w/Dave interesting take March mkt lows etc.

Well it turns out, people didn't like the 5 year note yesterday, but the 7 year note turned out to be very attractive today.

primary dealers bid 50B accepted 10B (27%)
indirect bidders bid 25B accepted 17B (63%)

This gave us a bid to cover ratio of 2.77.

You can be forgiven if you don't understand why bidders today thought the 7 year was fantastic, and why they thought the 5 year yesterday was trash, while the market rallied 20 points in the interim. Bonds rallying at the same time the stock market rallies? I don't get it either. Who is buying these things? Not foreigners, and not the primary dealers. And apparently investors are buying risk - 20 points of S&P risk, just today.

Who then bought these treasuries?

I ran across the following this AM. It is this kind of gullibility which I find so depressing and dashes hopes of a public demand for honesty.
--------------

"Reading about the first Quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, which found that almost 75 percent of those surveyed give Ben Bernanke favorable marks for his actions as chairman of the Fed during the current financial and economic crisis..."

--------------

75 percent approval! This is one sick country — still in denial.

Anyone have an idea what just happened in the bond ETFs?

and see if it doesn't answer a question....re: TLT/TBT.

If you saw RSI's in the 80's-90's and you were approaching a top in the market of 1000 'predicted' by GS et al....would you short treasuries or go long?

Just curious:>)

"I am convinced that you cannot have any significant CHANGE in America until we change our monetary system first. Every other attempt is nothing but a band-aid for the status quo.

- ELIMINATE THE US FED
- ELIMINATE US INCOME TAX"

Kaimu, I understand and even share your views on the US FED, but whats with the US Income Tax ? I am bugged with the whole taxation without representation thing that's going on, but that indicates a problem with the politico system, not with the tax per se...

Grym-
"However, I'm still very surprised that so many people I know quite well — who were badly hurt by the Wall St, HB&B and government economic mess — can still be so trusting of the same groups and individuals."

Like you, so am I. Almost every day I see it and shake my head (figuratively of course). :) Even in the face of undeniable facts; first-hand accounts from which they are bearing financial, emotional etc. scars; facts attested to by 'authorities' the person in denial regards as one of integrity, honesty, and a 'life-long' friend all of which counter their denial perspective they hold on. My experience of 20 plus years has always been the same...there's just no (or very very little) chance of them changing their mind.

s

Southwest makes bid to buy Frontier Airlines

http://tinyurl.com/mdm5e9

ps the closing hour is the most important hour of the day.

"Who is buying these things? Not foreigners, and not the primary dealers. And apparently investors are buying risk - 20 points of S&P risk, just today.

Who then bought these treasuries?"

I'll take a stab at that question, but it's pure speculation on my part.

Truly massive amounts of pension money (401Ks, institutional, RRSP, etc) around the world fled from everything risky - even bonds - to cash between, oh say, Jan 2008 and Mar 2009. Just focusing on the Canadian RRSPs for a moment, Money Market Funds are bloated to the gills and paying absolutely no interest. Q2's financial management results were spectacular in comparison. As this money returns off the sidelines, a WHOLE lot of it is going into Balanced Funds - a mix of Equities and Bonds.

I'm seeing a lot of new fund issues and marketing in Canada that are touting International Balanced Funds. They allocate some pretty hefty chunks to US Bonds in the Fixed Income portion. It's probably a pretty easy sell when you see the performance of US$ during times of crisis (see Sep '08 - Mar '09).

Obviously Canadian RRSPs are small potatos but all global managers, trying to reallocate back into equities AND Bonds must be providing some demand for, among other things, treasuries.

Just a thought.

ALOHA !!

- ELIMINATE US INCOME TAX

First off as I have shown US Income Tax is running around 1/3rd of total receipts needed to cover outlays, so our government is financing over half of their spending anyway.

The tax system when combined with the US Treasury outlays are woefully inefficient and inadequate. As you know we have a Federal Income Tax(1040) and we have State income tax. Those states without an income tax make up for it in sales or property tax. We all know the State budgets are a mess, most are underfunded.

Why would we send our Federal tax dollars form Hawaii(in my case) all the way over to Washington DC to run a gauntlet of special interests and lobbyists only to have a small portion return to Hawaii? Why not keep the tax money in the communities where we reside?

Where the US Military is concerned there needs to be some major cuts at the Pentagon. There needs to be a total reorg on how things get paid for. If Exxon or Shell wants a military escort through the Red Sea for one of their tankers then charge them a fee. If Japan or South Korea or Saudi Arabia wants US Military bases then charge them a fee, otherwise bring the US Military home. As it is we have to pay rent for military bases in other countries while the US taxpayer picks up the cost for protecting Japan and Korea and Saudi Arabia. Funding a World Police when we can barely police our own cities and borders is just plain ludicrous.

Paying US Income Taxes hardly makes a dent in spending costs anyway. At some point the embedded costs of "promises and guarantees" to our own citizens and the rest of the World will crush this Nation.

It is obvious that OBAMA is not serious about cutting spending. His last effort was $100MIL USD. Just look at what gets spent every day over at the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT.

Look here are some examples of what I plan to report for this week's TAX REVENUE BREAKDOWN article.

I went back to 1940 to do some research on various costs ...

SOCIAL SECURITY & MEDICARE
From 1948 to 1979 the US government spent $897BIL USD on Social Security and Medicare benefits. Total spent by Obama in ten months time is $858.3 BIL USD. By the time the FY 2009 is over at the end of September Obama would have spent more in one year than the US government spent in 31 years. Now he wants universal healthcare …

PUBLIC DEBT
US PUBLIC DEBT now sits at $11.6TRIL USD. In 1940 the total US PUBLIC DEBT subject to Statutory Limitations was set at $43.2BIL USD. Now the limit is set at $12.1TRIL USD. We have spent more than the 1940 debt limit of $43.2BIL USD just on Federal Employee Insurance benefits, which now sits at $49.4BIL USD spent in ten months time. In 1940 the US Public Debt cost each American $327USD. Now in 2009 it costs each American $37,900USD. Even back when America was at its zenith in terms of military power in 1946 the US Public Debt cost each American $1,902USD. In 1946 our country's population was half of what it is now around 145million Americans, yet our cost of government is not two times the 1946 cost of $1,902USD per person, its 20 times more. In fact right after 1946 the US Public Debt dropped for eight years before it returned to WW2 levels. Therein lies the inefficiency of the current government spending regime when combined with the US FED and its monetary system of unending irredeemable currency.

Government must be forced to live within its means. US tax revenues do not belong to Congress those revenues came out of all our pockets. We currently have no representation in Washington DC as taxpayers. We taxpayers are not richer, we are more in debt.

"It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world." Thomas Jefferson

The last generation that paid all its debts was in 1835 ... The next 20 generations couldn't pay off the debt we now have in America.

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

The report you put together is brilliant and a bit overwhelming. Made my head spin. I think I'll go for a walk now. Really appreciate the ampount of work and thought that went into it. Thanks

contrary to Vad's instructions I went somewhat heavy in my COF puts to average down. average is now $1.33 on the $30 August Puts.

I forget who mentioned this yesterday, but the stock has had a block trade of 515100 @.55 current ask is .47. Seems interesting if you like these puppies, but the eom gives pause.

Very surprised to see the market soften here.

Mackinaw - as far as I understand it, the TIC shows foreigners are net sellers of treasuries right now, so its not you canadians with your RRSPs doing the heavy lifting here.

Perhaps US citizens have suddenly decided to move from money market funds heavily into both stocks AND bonds at the same time. Perhaps.

But I don't think so. I prefer my tinfoil hat explanation: our friends at the Fed are doing the buying, with mouse click money. Without telling anyone.

Craig,

OK. That's fine with me. But it sometimes doesn't seem too well coordinated short term. I am more medium to long term most of the time and expect deflation to predominate for some time yet, so I seldom make big changes — just incremental ones.

I did go totally to cash in Jan 2001 for the first time ever and again last July.

John Oliver of the Daily Show investigates, and concludes: NO!

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-july-29-2009...

PS: Robert Shiller seems to agree!

Here's something similar from Dr. Ron's blog.
"Breadth is solidly up over 3500 to the green
The US dollar is down, but not out (double bottom support or Fed intervention or both)
TBT isn't responding as though a bull market is here to stay
Volatility is down
Goldman Sachs is up
In other words, the usual suspects move in the usual direction"

Simple formula for determining whether you're on track:

http://tinyurl.com/lpky99

Bottom line: Have 7.7x your annual salary in the retirement account(s) by the time you hang it up.

Maybe at the close, with the end-of-month window dressing out of the way?

tof- Well, you can afford to. Anyone who caught the wave up can surf the down wave any way he wants.

Basic(ally) instinct.

Ready to unwind. Sheryl Crow's version.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31f-Eefpbe8

(Apologies for the earlier version, which jumps to a commercial break in the middle of play.)

Comprehensive critique as always. Those forefathers' quotes sure reflect a lot of insight, wisdom and foreboding!. Do schools still teach them in America today? I would expect it is all censored like George Orwell's 1984 from kindles.
Obviously, the ruling class (Brits) behaved towards the people just like the ruling elite treats today's people. Nothing has changed, will it ever? Let us eat crumbs.
What I take from the report is that with all of the efforts to keep everyone current with their debt payments, how can we not expect inflation?
Will humpty dumpty take (another) great fall?

luckily i'm in the money on those so far. i will have a tight leash on them. i don't have much of an affinity for losses...

TOF- Nice. I put in a bid to short @ 31.81 that obviously didn't fill. I've done well with my last few trades averaging down (I don't trust myself most of the time to get in once the trend has reversed very far), so in hindsight, I'm not sure why I didn't pull the trigger this morning. GL

I was thinking alot of people are watching that 38% fib level at 1013 just like they were watching the head and shoulders. I don't think it runs straight there, it may get there yet though. Maybe a little anxiety pain for the bears first thinking they missed the top. I figured 995 was close enough for me, if I control my position size I can easily ride it to the 1013 area. Of course it didn't hurt that "BSI" called the top. He pretty much rang the bell at the high of the day.

JC- "called the top". Sure felt like one to me. During that 10pt. pop in the second hour, I commented to my wife, "This is $%^$# ridiculous." I also think it will go higher, but not like this. If we were seeing top line growth, that would be one thing, but less bad will get old soon. GL

I can explain that buy alert. If you mouse over the monthly RSI column, you'll see that before the monthly RSI went to 31.89, it was 29.12. I trigger a buy alert when all three numbers are below 30, and one of them goes above 30. I know another interpretation is that it should be the daily going above 30, and that is perhaps a better one -- if someone wants to argue the point of which is better I'll consider changing the algorithm. :) But the main point is we went from all below 30 to not all below 30, so it triggered the alert.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Buttonwood column is one I read every week.

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaySt...

Thank you bsi....
Seems to me one key, no, the *only* key, is to set expectations low enough to beat your own numbers....

"The second factor is the second-quarter reporting season in America. According to Morgan Stanley, 57% of companies in the S&P 500 index to have reported results have beaten expectations."

And who sets those expectations? Why Morgan, GS and their HB&B friends of course! Why, that explains everything!

Why not just rely on Cramer? Buy, buy, buy! LOL!

BTW, I so glad the IRS isn't counting my increased savings and reduced spending as an addition to my bottom line. Wall Street, the only place on earth where firing employees, reducing expenditures and selling assets counts as growth and results in "beaten expectations". No doubt, aim low....and it's easier to reach expectations. Just don't let anyone talk about YOY numbers, THAT wouldn't be so wonderful!

For all you with kids, maybe suggest that they tell you they are failing all their classes, then when they all come home with D's, they will beat expectations and you can reward them for a job well done with ice cream, toys and cars!
America, what a country, huh?

DJIA futures up by 30. Will we hit 1000 on the S&P today?!!