Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Jul. 9, 2009

Daily Kos has an article on the GS program that has been in the news lately. It's rather technical, but here is the link in case anyone's interested in looking at it...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/7/7/750786/...

"Want to read the future ?

From DKOSer Ezekial:

...GS, through access to the system as a result of their special gov't perks, was/is able to read the data on trades before it's committed, and place their own buys or sells accordingly in that brief moment, thus allowing them to essentially steal buttloads of money every day from the rest of the punters world.

Two things come out of this:

1. If true, this should be highly illegal, and would, in any sane country result in something like what happened to Arthur Andersen...

(2. ... is way off point....)

SUMMARY:

Goldman Sachs may just possibly have used security access codes and built a system to acquire trading information PRIOR to transaction_commit time points at NYSE.

The profitability of this split-second information advantage would have been and could have been extraordinary. Observed yielding profits at $100,000,000 a day.

[summary to address complaints with respect to complexity.]

GS has special access inside the system from its status assisting the Working Group on Financial Markets (colloquially the Plunge Protection Team) created by Presidential Order two decades ago. GC also acts as Special Liquidity Provider for NYSE.

With 60% dominance of NYSE program trading, what's good for Goldman defines what shows as overall market performance."

The three biggest lies:

There are no conspiracies, it's an "even Steven" playing field, and the check's in the mail.

Excellent post and example (the congrats) 2nd.
Lesson #1 from my guru. If you win as a result of having the edge (in my case not me but my dog), exhibit good sportsmanship at all times.
Always give credit where credit is due.

Plan on scaling into FXP on the dips.

http://tinyurl.com/koysh7

[Comments welcome on this one]

Just sit tight Mark, it will come back to you.

Making it pretty difficult to screwdoodle money out of them.

The late 90's must have been heaven in this business, with all the stunads daytrading from their offices, jobs, everywhere, paying 100 bucks for sockdrawer.com.

EDIT FEATURE: OMG! There actually is a company called sockdrawer.com. I was only kidding.

More upside, I'm sure, but I was just playing the weekly release.

Bev - why not go short FXI? Or - do one of those buy put/sell call spread things? I never like the decay on FXP, have had a bad experience with it. Just some thoughts.

Comparing FXI with the SPX, they track fairly closely.

Saw an interview with a guy who said, "I believe buying China is a deep out of the money call on the USA" - meaning, they've built up manufacturing to serve our future needs, which is great as long as our economy expands to demand that level of manufacturing from them. If we don't, then they're going to have severe overcapacity issues, like the USA did in the 30s.

2nd- I need to just sit tight here. Not fast enough to dip in and out like you. And don't trust myself to get in once the trend reverses. I usually just sit on my hands. (Like right now..Just checked UNG..now 12.63, would I buy this pop? Doubt it.) 4th straight week of lower injection. Talked with my oil guy Mon. and he just laughed at all the commotion over NG inventory builds.

Besides, I don't want to let Fred down.

From Leavitt Brothers:
Lenny Dykstra just filed for bankruptcy. He claims $50,000 in assets and liabilities somewhere between $10 million and $50 million. By itself I could care less about this, but the funny and ironic part of the story is Jim Cramer has gone on the record to say Dykstra is one of the best stock pickers in the world, one of the 4 or 5 people he trusts. What a joke! Here's Cramer...
Cramer praises Dykstra: http://tinyurl.com/ko32np

davafairtex

Thanks! I just might short FXI instead. I was waiting for an entry point below 12.75 for FXP so I have yet to scale in. And the comment from USA makes this trade look even better.

Read this a while back, he's such a putz.
http://tinyurl.com/d2zfag

how most of my friends teen's are buying much fewer items at the cheapest prices... not so much at wallmart, but spread out amoung different stores... as a note, some of these kids have had their hours cut at their part time jobs... one of my good friends just got laid off after 24 years... he was in charge of countertop installation at a large fabrication shop... smart and a hard worker, and he can't find work...( in Charlotte area )

How do I know? I just know.

Now that's hubris ;)

Perhaps its the descending triangle on SPX?

But I don't trust these guys. Just when we have it all figured out, they'll whipsaw us up just like Bill said.

http://tinyurl.com/nuth3r

[See comment below for the answer]

^VIX down a few percent this morning and my directional not tingling in a particular direction, I decided to take out a straddle on Russell 2000.

Bought long call @ 1.03
Bought long put @ 1.01

Expires at close July 17

Todays bounce is just that, a bounce. It will not hold by Friday's close if not sooner.
I am so sure that gold and copper is going lower that FCX is in my sights as falling significantly. I have a order to buy $47 puts, July, at $1.77. Then I'll sit tight.

Who cares

World markets don't give me any confidence in the S&P. Russia noticeably looking week.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6...

and yes that is showing a lack of humility 2nd. You vying for the title of navigator?

:)

the article posted above is a fake.

the bonds seized in Italy were fake. plain and simple, the treasury never even issued bonds in the massive denomonations these people were carrying, this is why the media at large ignored it as it was so clearly BS,

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/26/italy...

this is typical of people to hang their hats on conspiracy about japan and others looking to get out of US debt instruments, something that has only helped the US dollar stay up and gold down as people attempt to drink more kool-aid.

remember: for every seller of so-called "bad-debt" there must be a buyer. so when russia and china talk about getting rid of US holdings ask yourself, who will buy them? and also ask yourself why is china still buying US debt en masse?

chickenpookie

LOL... that comment was hilarious! I almost fell out of my chair laughing.
Give the man from the "Lone Star State" a round of applause.

20% (of allocation) opening shots in all of the above (QID opened yesterday).

TN_blogger

This may play out over a few days and FXI may have some upside in it. But I believe the so called Great Wall @ 41+ limits it. Did you see davefairtex comment(10:46 #36190) above? He made some good points. The comment in the USA article about China and FXI and $SPX tracking each other.

I hope 10% on my stop is not too tight with FXP...the points he made about the article witch referenced overcapacity in China make sense to me.

It might have been Bsi87 who referred to what we all know is dangerous.

I am thinking about waiting till 3PM before adding to my short holdings. The reason is, it looks like we chop..chop from here till 3PM. There maybe a surprise rally upwards which would present a great opportunity to add then. What Mr Cara said today I thought was profound....

"Although support on the S&P was violated, we remain leery the “obvious” head and shoulders formation will quickly lead to painless profits down to the 810 area. With short term technical traders leaning short as 880 was taken out, it seems logical to prepare for an upside whipsaw perhaps to the 925 area, frustrating as many traders as possible, before the real correction begins."

This would allow the market to really hurt the most people. Squeeze the shorts and trap the longs. But if we drop, then I will just be traveling with a partially loaded truck of shorts.

Any thoughts on this bit of thinking?

"["I put on another 10% in another segment of my account following another chap here whose comments fill this blog with blow by blow trades. This account is also 100% cash as I want the summer off. This account is up 27%"]

I assume in this instance that he's probably referring to you. If so, he should tip your PayPal account, assuming you have one. :)"

Todd- Not sure about that, as I'm up over 3x what he's quoting (assuming the March lows). But then we may have different time frames ;)

(I also notice he claims never to play the ultras, which is pretty much most of my trading activity the past few months.)

Here's a thought from Jesse Livermore:

"[T]he first time I traded because of a crisis that was still to come I found that I had been using a telescope. Between my first glimpse of the storm cloud and the time for cashing in on the big break the stretch was evidently so much greater than I had thought that I began to wonder whether I really saw what I thought I saw so clearly.

"We had had many warnings and sensational ascensions in call money rates. Still some of the great financiers talked hopefully at least to newspaper reporters and the ensuing rallies in the stock market gave the lie to the calamity howlers. Was I fundamentally wrong in being bearish or merely temporarily wrong in having begun to sell short too soon?

"I decided that I began too soon, but that I really couldn't help it. Then the market began to sell off. That was my opportunity. I sold all I could, and then stocks rallied again, to quite a high level. It cleaned me out. There I was -- right and busted! I tell you it was remarkable. What happened was this I looked ahead and saw a big pile of dollars. Out of it stuck a sign. It had "Help yourself," on it, in huge letters. Beside it stood a cart with "Lawrence Livermore Trucking Corporation" painted on its side. I had a brand-new shovel in my hand. There was not another soul in sight, so I had no competition in the gold-shoveling, which is one beauty of seeing the dollar-heap ahead of others. The people who might have seen it if they had stopped to look were just then looking at baseball games instead, or motoring or buying houses to be paid for with the very dollars that I saw.

"That was the first time that I had seen big money ahead, and I naturally started toward it on the run. Before I could reach the dollar-pile my wind went back on me and I fell to the ground. The pile of dollars was still there, but I had lost the shovel, and the wagon was gone. So much for sprinting too soon ! I was too eager to prove to myself that I had seen real dollars and not a mirage. I saw, and knew that I saw. Thinking about the reward for my excellent sight kept me from considering the distance to the dollar-heap.

"I should have walked and not sprinted. That is what happened. I didn't wait to determine whether or not the time was right for plunging on the bear side. On the one occasion when I should have invoked the aid of my tape-reading I didn't do it. That is how I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is well not to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing."

and buying yamana even w/o any good pullbacks

dollar plunging

Bev, waiting for end of day can be a really good idea. I used to try shorting after the first hour, but I ended up getting stopped out too many times. I was "cup and handled" to death as the stocks I shorted ground up slowly as the day went on.

Now I do exactly what you say - I wait for those end of day rallies, look over the companies I love to short, and sometimes pick up a gem. Yesterday, it was TIF, which spiked on big volume and no news (that I could find). I shorted it at 3:58. There was good resistance at 26 on the daily chart which gave me some confidence, and the move up yesterday was just absurd. I covered this morning about 20 minutes ago. Would that all of my trades went like that.

I am just now starting to have repeatable shorting success.

But actually, I'm long miners & oil right now - with the oil longs being short puts to cut my risk. I'm expecting Bill's whipsaw rally led by energy & commodities given the low RSIs of that group.

I cleared out all of my puts yesterday. I'm looking to reload them after a few days of whipsaw. (I do the bearish call spread that funds a put buy strategy).

2nd Ave.

You seem sure we are going down...what makes you feel that way? I am mostly in cash and also own some QID. Almost let my QID yesterday but held off. Just curious, is it gut feel, some specific indicators you look at, or both?

Thanks

Rumour has it the RCMP just arrested some guy named FredC with a secret trading algorithm belonging to to a yank in the SF area....

Gut feel, mainly. But that's not solely what I'm relying on. The breakdown in financials and energy the past few days gives me added confidence.

The 30 year auction results are announced today at 1:00 PM ET. That's in 8 minutes. :)

when the dollar's doing a death-dive?

hanging in yamana

ToddinFL - I had placed WMT in the file between a rock and a hard place. If China experiences rising inflation, they will have to pass this cost on through the retail chain?

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2008/12/how-deflatio...

ToddinFL

Thanks for the link... will check it out now.

Long FWLT at 19.70. Keeping TZA on deck if we have a break lower.
Bob

The $ 3.50 range looks ok... any thoughts, since everyone and their dog ( cat ) knows the china story....

some hard love here, I feel for you

:P

$3.50 has got to be the deal of a century, depending on your time horizon I suppose. My doggie(kitty-cat) sense tells me you'll beat Fred's cash on the sidelines.

You probably know more about it than I but sheesh, what could go wrong?

Interesting find CP thanks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compe...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_(bicycling)

Just sold August $33 puts on USO at $2.60. When we get a positive GDP in 4Q2009, I think oil is definitely going to be above its currently oversold price.

"I'm preparing to go short, and I just have a difficult time handling long/short profiles."

I actually like those profiles, as they allow me to make an immediate profit on any market move: if the market moves down, then I close my shorts with a profit, and if it moves up, then I sell some longs with a profit.

If the SLW puts I sold are assigned to me, then those shares will comprise only 3.5% of my portfolio, so I actually *want* those shares assigned to me at the bargain price of $6.65. In fact, I actually *want* SLW to drop to $6.5 soon, so that I could sell more of the $7.50 puts.

Bloomberg on the Economy podcast with Tom Keene. Recent podcast with analyst looking for 5.5% on the 10 year in 2010.

LOL! I was watching the sports show following the TDF this AM with a couple of Freds trying to tell the audience cycling isn't a sport.

This from two guys with higher fat content than butter and lower IQ's than Lance Armstrong's resting heart rate. I doubt they could make the first switchback of tomorrows mountain stage. But football and basketball are sports? Like they (fat white guys) could play either of those....? Go figure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/podcast/ontheeconomy.html

ALOHA !!

Davidfairtex posted - "I believe buying China is a deep out of the money call on the USA" - meaning, they've built up manufacturing to serve our future needs, which is great as long as our economy expands to demand that level of manufacturing from them. If we don't, then they're going to have severe overcapacity issues, like the USA did in the 30s." Said by a guy not Davidfairtex ...

Okay ... lets take that scenario a few more steps ...

If the CONSUMER NATION falters and CHINA is dependent on US Consumers and CHINA falters due to such dependency then who will BUY all our Treasuries and FNM and FRE? So who is most vulnerable? Is it the CREDITOR or the DEBTOR? I'll go with the over capacity, especially if I have over a billion citizens! Everybody gets a free 100ton steel ingot!

Maybe that is why CHINA talks of "diversifying" out of US Dollar denominated assets, because they need a cover to hide the fact that they will no longer be able to afford to keep up the pace of holding US DEBT, like in the past during the boom times.

You know none of these fiat countries have any real transparency. They cannot afford to!

I always tried to live my life with as little DEBT as possible, as I never really looked at DEBT as an advantage in the long run ...

Buying time ...

on the other hand, a late stop run on the shorts could be sufficient to get the snowball rolling (uphill in this case) to take out the daily right shoulder break and higher from there. To paraphrase Vad, if everyone is short, who is left to sell?

There is a noticeable correlation in the charts between the 10-year treasury yields and gold, which can be explained by the fact that both yields and gold rise because of inflation expectations. Now, the 10-year yields have come down dramatically, and Bill feels that treasuries are overbought. Since there is much more room for treasury yields on the upside now, I would also say that there is much more room for gold on the upside and that one should view this correction as a rare buying opportunity.

At the same time, higher 10-year yields hurt stocks, especially the real estate & financials, which probably have more room on the downside now.

Being exposed to asbestos myself i can only say that i am ashamed of what is still allowed to happen in this country. We are allowing the export of asbestos to developing countries, all in the name of profit.

http://www.cbc.ca/national/blog/video/healtheducat...

2nd, if your prediction is true then it'll be back to a 4 handle at some point.
I got in at 48.35 yesterday and got out today at 50.30. I'll wait for the cat to come back.

I'll also bet 2nd was in FAZ at XLF 11.37 and didn't post it....

Scroll down a bit for a complete assessment of yields vs. gold price over the short term and the long term:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html#predict_gold

No, but I'll let my wife ponder the 859% jump in FAZ today over dinner ;)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=faz

http://tinyurl.com/klrdwg

What do you think Bev?

Just money management. I suspect they'll try to rotate the buying/selling to keep things seemingly under control.

After the reverse split in the last week or so of 20 to 1 and a price of 23.20 AIG falls to 9.13, falling almost 30% today. Analyst Joshua Shanker predicts a 70% chance of ending up worthless. I wonder what happens to the 480 billion of bailout money?

jmorris1950

THAT'S HIM ! FredC.... I would know that "rant" any where.

Thanks

In this economy - good luck finding a street corner that isn't already occupied.

Freaking hilarious LMAO - thanks for sharing, I needed that.

Gov. Bev Perdue gonna try to cut state employees salaries 7 % in NC....

go figure.

Now Citadel is joining the barbeque since they also have computer programs that have the capability to manipulate the market. But only if they are in the wrong hands, of course. Not their hands, of course. Anyway, it used to be sort of a joke that all these program trading companies had their own personal Ukrainian mathematicians. It turned out to be true, after all, and since the they have now joined forces, it's time to snuff them out before they can manipulate the market.

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/citadel-join...

...

Or... If he just wanted to see how big the reaction would be.

Lighten up, Craig.

2nd

" - "

http://tinyurl.com/l22ljx

Looks like an inverse head and shoulders in the making...

Inquiring if any folks have positive experiences/recommendations re medical alert systems for the elderly independent. After trying to do some comparative research I narrowed down to a few services and ultimately selected one which offered a discounted rate, and waived activation fee, as a promotional which included an indefinite "locked-in" monthly payment. Since the company is one of the most highly touted in the industry ( first letter of the name is "P" ) I ordered the equipment for my mother-in-law. Upon receipt I reviewed the standarized plan agreement and, lo and behold, among other items it contains a provision that the monthly payment rate is subject to change upon 30 days written notice; the agreement comes into force upon installation; it is effective for minimum 3 months; and it supercedes all prior representations, understandings, or agreements between the parties subject to modification only by writing signed by both parties. I consequently contacted the sales rep and expressed my concerns and he initially informed that I had inadvertently been sent an outdated version of the contract but he conceded that, aside from omission of the 3 month minimum effective period, the current agreement was substantially identical. He tried to assure me that I would indeed receive the purported indefinite monthly " locked-in " rate because he had assigned some kind of special code. I informed him that my interpretation of the contract was that such an oral representation was clearly superceded by the provision re rate change upon written notice. I likewise informed that my concern was founded upon my pre-retirement career which included involvement with contracts. He finally conceded that the written agreement " is what it is " and that neither he, nor anyone with the appropriate authority, could modify the contract in writing consistent with his oral representation. Since the equipment was not yet installed we agreed that he would forward an address label for free return shipment and credit reimbursement. Not a happy experience and thus the inquiry of others with positive outcomes.

Now on-topic. I discovered Mr. Cara's blog about 2 to 3 years ago and and have been so impressed with his commentari, as well as contributers' comments ( generally ) that have not renewed the 3 or 4 financial newsletters to which had been subscribing. So the only newsprint sources which now use are Barron's Weekly, I.B.D., and the Financial Times. My long time, well-worn bible is Loeb's "The Battle for Investment Survival" which I pulled back out of the dust bin early last year as the downturn hastened. Fortunately, altho indeed severely dented by the events, I was able to avoid the kind of carnage seen in the major indexes and the fund industry. I have a staple of about 500 stocks/ETFs to which have added and subtracted from multiple sources during many years... including some which are in the Cara 100. Since virtually all of my investments are in retirement vehicles ( IRAs, 457, 401k ) do not engage in option trading ( altho am aware that can do covered calls ). My investment style is perhaps best characterized as eclectic... sort of trend-following, relatively longer-term, and gut feeling. I have some issues that have held for many years. Conversely, just yesterday sold 1/2 positions in TBT ( bot at $37+ ), TGB (bot at $1.15 & $0.75 ) and CME (bot at $203 & $173 ). Am also holding on to some real clunkers with mere hope but they're too cheap to sell. And have a glut of uraniums ( following the advice of a certain newsletter writer who self-describes as the "original uranium bug" ) which accounted for about 75% of my down-draft last year... fortunately not the same proportion as my overall portfolio. Currently, as apparently many on this blog, I am leery of this market environment and have reduced to an equity/money ratio of about 25%/75%.
Apologize for being so verbose and again appreciate the ongoing education provided herein. And thanx in advance for any input re the medical alert system situation.

http://tinyurl.com/n3hqee
It sure feels like too many people know the support and resistance points.

According to Weinstein's stage analysis, the USD is still in Phase 4 downtrend. When is the USD finally going to tank? I am getting impatient waiting for gold to rocket, even if for a brief flight to $1000.

USD 20 month chart
http://tinyurl.com/n4ekx4

http://tinyurl.com/ml96bs

Here's some of the statistics on ETF gold sales in the last few weeks, its surprising, but its the only readily available fact that comes to hand when assessing gold sales.

seekingalpha

One thing about gold ETF distributions are that they halt sales immediately on the price breakout of gold, and start buying, or actually chasing the price.

"passengers waiting for the 880 southbound"

I recommend exiting onto 237 west to 101 north if you're going to San-Fran, cross the bridge heading toward Sausalito and continue on to Lake Berryessa. There's a nice cloverleaf in Milpitas at the 237 interchange, which can serve well if your destination is the north-east bay.

yvrapx- LOL...clearly written in fun...so well done even Dykstra is probably ROFLHAO

ALOHA !!

Then take 680 to 580, exit Santa Rita Rd., left on Gleason, right on Arnold, right on Broader and there you are!

5325 Broder Blvd. in Dublin!!

The New Santa Rita Jail

"The facility holds about 4000 inmates housed in one of eighteen modern housing units. It is considered a "mega-jail" and ranks as the third largest facility in California and the fifth largest in the nation. Santa Rita is accredited by the American Correctional Association, thus making it the only facility in California holding this prestigious award.

It is recognized as one of the most technologically innovative jails in the world. A robotic system speeds delivery of laundry, supplies and food to all areas of the 113-acre campus. State-of-the-art criminal justice systems serve the internal operation while the largest rooftop solar power system converts enough electricity to power nearly one-half of the facilities electrical needs during daylight hours."END

Has it gotten so PC that we now refer to prisons as a "campus"?

Take a look at a few of the future grads... Yes, its coed!

LINK: http://www.alamedacountysheriff.org/LES/wantedList...

Bernie, where are you?

at 17.92, to replace 2/5 of the shares I sold at $19.64 last week. This purchase is supposed to relieve me of my worries that KGC might run away from me and give me the strength to wait until KGC drops below $17 so as to sell a lot of $17.50 puts on it. If KGC goes up tomorrow, then I'll sell August $19 or $20 covered calls on the shares I have just purchased.

proudpapa, CP,

I think it is "all of the above" — cheap credit made it easy to borrow and build — creating too many houses, malls and offices. Robotics and computerization increased productivity to leave us with more than enough workers in too many job categories. Off-shoring depleted the job market here while boosting stock prices as the layoffs kicked up the bottom line inflating share prices.

We have an oversupply of many items and retail needs to peddle inventory at a time when customers are squeezing the dollars in fear of losing a job or having had hours cut. They will not stock up while consumers are in saving mode.

This is a self-feeding cycle of downward moves which shows no sign of reversing and the government plans to begin massive new tax-fed health and environmental programs. Government is our biggest danger since there is no real stopper in Congress.

While I can't say I am certain of anything, I don't think inflation is immanent and this is why gold has been sort of stalled. All we can do is wait and be flexible until a trend develops before making any large or longer term commitments.

Just one guy's opinion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dfKdk6d6yQ

That's my take on the market dance right now.

Grym - I'm watching for gold backwardation as an early indicator of a trend toward inflation. A major selling event in Treasuries would increase money flow, a metric for inflation.

If China continues to print money in order to maintain the dollar peg, they will begin to feel a growing effect of inflation. This inflation will be exported to countries which are incapable of manufacturing, or have limited manufacturing capacity. I think this is why Immelt has been talking up a reversal of manufacturing offshoring.

The Chinese will have to develop their service industry in order to compensate their loss of manufacturing. Perhaps the credit crunch is just a symptom of imbalance?

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/What%20if...

Just the pendulum swinging back towards economic center... Otherwise, how will the US continue to finance the trade deficit without manufacturing and exporting value-added products? I don't think the world is going to keep sending products here free of charge, the price of foreign goods must begin to increase going forward.

LOL Vad, you've obviously got the sea legs!! I'll bet the changing timezones would only assist your ability to hit a moving target.

Have not heard this one even mentioned amongst the gold players. Now I see why. It has underperformed GLD substantially. One year GLD neg 1%, DGP neg 13%, per Yahoo. Thank you PowerShares. Hope you can earn your high fee with something better.

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/freetop.aspx

Maybe Vad is relating the trader ship in a parallel sense with a floating casino, the way this market seems to gyrate up and down, it's black one moment and red the next.

Kaimu said - If the CONSUMER NATION falters and CHINA is dependent on US Consumers and CHINA falters due to such dependency then who will BUY all our Treasuries and FNM and FRE? So who is most vulnerable? Is it the CREDITOR or the DEBTOR? I'll go with the over capacity, especially if I have over a billion citizens! Everybody gets a free 100ton steel ingot!

Yay! A Steel Ingot in Every Pot!

I'm with you, I'd rather have over capacity than no capacity, for sure. My only observation was, China is not magically decoupled from the US. When our consumers retrench, China will have serious indigestion until they figure out who will get those steel ingots. And like the US during the Depression, their stock market will suffer greatly. Worse than here? Who can say.

I read an interesting series of articles on the Great Depression that suggested War Debt from WWI along with tariffs were responsible for causing the depression to last so long.

We're in a similar situation today - except we don't have war debt, we have massive consumption debt. Will China raise trade barriers the same way we did, not allowing us to earn money to pay off our debt? Will we end up defaulting?

Interesting set of parallels. Here's the source. It's not neutral, but its interesting:

http://tinyurl.com/knnvo8

Joe Legal vs. Jose Illegal

Here is an example of why hiring illegal aliens is not economically productive for the State of California ...
You have 2 families..."Joe Legal" and "Jose Illegal". Both families have 2 parents, 2 children and live in California.
"Joe Legal" works in construction, has a Social Security Number, and makes $25.00 per hour with payroll taxes deducted...."Jose Illegal" also works in construction, has "NO" Social Security Number, and gets paid $15.00 cash "under the table".
Joe Legal...$25.00 per hour x 40 hours $1000.00 per week, $52,000 per year Now take 30% away for state federal tax Joe Legal now has $31,231.00
Jose Illegal...$15.00 per hour x 40 hours $600.00 per week, $31,200.00 per year Jose Illegal pays no taxes... Jose Illegal now has $31,200.00
Joe Legal pays Medical and Dental Insurance with limited coverage $1000.00 per month $12,000.00 per year Joe Legal now has $19,231.00.
Jose Illegal has full Medical and Dental coverage through the state and local clinics at a cost of $0.00 per year Jose Illegal still has $31,200.00.
Joe Legal makes too much money is not eligible for Food Stamps or welfare Joe Legal pays for food $1,000.00 per month $12,000.00 per year Joe Legal now has $7,231.00.
Jose Illegal has no documented income and is eligible for Food Stamps and Welfare Jose Illegal still has $31,200.00 Joe Legal pays rent of $1,000.00 per month $12,000.00 per year. Joe Legal is now in the hole minus (-) $4,769.00.
Jose Illegal receives a $500 per month Federal rent subsidy.
Jose Illegal pays rent $500.00 per month $6,000.00 per year.
Jose Illegal still has $25,200.00.
Joe Legal now works overtime on Saturdays or gets a part time job after work.
Jose Illegal has nights and weekends off to enjoy with his family.
Joe Legal's and Jose Illegal's children both attend the same school.
Joe Legal pays for his children's lunches while Jose Illegal's children get a government sponsored lunch. Jose Illegal's children have an after school ESL program. Joe Legal's children go home.
Joe Legal and Jose Illegal both enjoy the same Police and Fire Services, but Joe paid for them and Jose did not pay.
Don't vote/support any politician that supports illegal aliens... It's PAST time to take a stand for America and Americans!

I guess we can expect Gold to be sold aggressively tomorrow on this news.

http://tinyurl.com/lh25vl

Excerpts:
There is no question on whether the comments represented those of of China's top leadership, the spokesman said.

"China's position on reserve currencies has had different interpretations, but I can tell you that what I have just quoted is the most authoritative standpoint of the Chinese government," he said (Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dai_Bingguo

Dai made his statement to a meeting including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, U.S. President Barack Obama and the leaders of Japan and the European Union, whose currencies are often held as part of countries' foreign exchange reserves.

One commentator said Geitner would be out in 6 months. That time is fast approaching. There ought to be a campaign a-building to do that. Any takers to join the train? It is not impossible!

I did a search on Daily Kos for "Geitner". Not a hit! Blah.

Add an H. It's Geithner. Not that you'll get a hit, but spelling counts when searching.

Here is another idea I plan to implement tomorrow... FAS and FAZ just did a reverse split. Pull up a historical chart and see the effects of the decay in value. Will short BOTH tomorrow. Benefit from the scam. Closest thing to a sure thing I can think of...

KC

Hey B1- I'll make you a deal. If you live in Ca. or are willing to move here and have 20 years experience in high end construction I'll hire you. Or perhaps your son or daughter if they can't find work. I'll pay $28.00/hr, full medical, the same I have with only a $25 co pay. I'll also give you a gas card and will put you on salary after 3 months. You will need to have a truck with lumber racks and be willing to travel as much as 60-100 miles per day. Bridge toll is on you. As a salaried employee, I expect you to pick up lumber/materials before work at be at the job by 7:00am. We also usually have meetings late in the day so expect to be able to leave the job by 5:00pm. Expect to work in a 18" crawl space for weeks as we are doing earthquake retrofit work right now. You can come out for 2 15 minute breaks and a 1/2 lunch. After that we need to sheet a roof with a 9/12 pitch. The harness you have to wear isn't as bad after you get used to it. Your not afraid of hights are you?? Thought not. After that we are starting a large project in SF and the only way to get the dirt off the job is in 5 gallon buckets, up the Filbert st. stairs and into a truck.

I'm sure you can find a room to rent in a 4 bedroom apartment here, or close by, for say $750/month. Please feel free to e-mail me as this must seem like the opportunity of a life time.

2006 NY Times article - A Condo on a Permanent Luxury Cruise

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/05/magazine/305dedu...

ALOHA !!

So, now GEITHNER is following RON PAUL'S recommendation made back when Greenspan was still the US FED Chief over five years ago.

"Hey Greenspan, how about giving us back that Medal Of Honor Bush gave you? We need the GOLD, besides you don't deserve it anyway!"

What must Greenspan be thinking now as he sees Geithner, the US Tres Sec, now saying the US CONgress needs to heavily regulate the same derivatives Greenspan recommended not regulating at all ... Brilliant work GREENIE!!!

How much different would our World be right now without these "assclowns" in the way? There ... I used the word "assclowns" in a sentence!

Is there anyone seriously planning to keep voting the two party aristocracy into power after all this? I know the UNIONS will, but then what's it take to be in a union ... a pulse? Or is that not even a pre-requisite?

Here in Hawaii Gov Lingle made it mandatory for State workers to take three days off per month. The UNION took her to court and won so now she is laying off 25,000 union workers!

Everyone here in America, from the President on down to the lowly farmers and union janitors thinks there is such a thing as "having your cake and eating it too"! Everyone voted for the "free lunch" here in America and they ended up with NO DINNER! Many ended up with no breakfast, no lunch, no dinner and no JOB!

The UNIONS are no different than Wall Street CEOs ... they want it all and they want it now!

I can't wait to see what a "union owned" GM will look like! All benefits and no car ... like the Flintstones(no motor)! Now that GM is union owned and knowing how it got that way I would never buy a GM car ever in my life! OBAMA and his family will have to pick up the slack! I'm done with MADE IN WASHINGTON DC!!

ALL OUR BEST VOTING GOT US HERE!

Nice and appropriate use of the term ass clown. Also recently posted and applicable is "ass hat." I'm not only learning about the markets, but new ways to describe our elected "representatives."

"Is there anyone seriously planning to keep voting the two party aristocracy into power after all this?"

I've often been chastised for not "voting" by my friends and colleagues. I always explain that it's a waste of my time because by the time that the two choices vetted and groomed by the CFR Bilderberg owners of this country have decided our new leader, my vote is irrelevant. In the rare instance that the elected goes against their handlers they get "assassinated." Our founding fathers would be appalled at where we are right now, and it's barely been 200 years since the birth of our country...

I'm certain that if you checked Webster's dictionary for the term "assclowns" Kaimu you might indeed see their pictures. A befitting description if I ever heard one.

http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/

I have that terrible feeling in my gut about the market today. The sad thing is in the past, when it got to where I was this afraid of a crash, the crash had already occurred. But in this case, only the gold miners have crashed, and everything else is within a few hundred points of highs.

I wish I had a clue.