Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Jun 18, 2009

I just saw this... hmm maybe a good idea?

Gold sold like chocolate from German vending machines
Shoppers in Germany will soon be able to buy gold as easily as bars of chocolate after a firm announced plans to install vending machines selling the precious metal across the country.
TG-Gold-Super-Markt aims to introduce the machines at 500 locations including train stations and airports in Germany.

The company, based near Stuttgart, hopes to tap into the increasing interest in buying gold following disillusionment in other investments due to the economic downturn.

http://bit.ly/A8nFW

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/hugh-hendry-...

good opposing viewpoint from the herd for those interested

Good morning.

Downgrades:

PAYX - to Underweight @ JP Morgan
SNDK - to Underperform @ Needham

Price Targets Raised:

GOOG - from $400 to $475 @ Credit Suisse. Outperform
NKE - from $60 to $65 @ Credit Suisse. Outperform
WAG - from $32 to $38 @ Credit Suisse. Outperform

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/dylan-ratigan...

Watching/predicting pre-market price movements is like trying to swat a fly. Only gets a little better during market hours.

So yesterday TBT showed one of those hammer dojis, which is a low reliability bullish reversal signal. It requires confirmation. We have opened with a gap up, and now if we get a white candle today it's a confirmation of a TBT reversal.

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs18.asp

I might add, the low happened at around 52.50, which is where Mark called it the other day. :)

Limit @ 8.40 for an opening position.

http://bit.ly/YCnfX
Health information services provider HLTH Corp (HLTH.O) will merge into its subsidiary WebMD Health Corp (WBMD.O) in an all-stock deal, the companies said.

"This transaction will eliminate the inefficiencies associated with having two separate public companies and HLTH stockholders will receive a direct ownership in WebMD through a tax-free transaction," the companies said.

WebMD, which will be the surviving company in the merger, will be well positioned to deliver strong growth in the years ahead, the companies said.

As part of the deal, WebMD Class B shares will be retired and each outstanding share of HLTH common stock will convert into 0.4444 shares of WebMD Class A common stock, the companies said.

HLTH currently owns 48.1 million shares of WebMD Class B common stock, representing about 80 percent of equity of WebMD, which operates the popular healthcare website of the same name.

The deal will eliminate both HLTH's controlling interest in WebMD and WebMD's existing dual-class stock structure, the companies said in a statement.

HLTH currently has 102.8 million common shares outstanding.

HLTH and WebMD currently have in excess of $800 million in cash and investments and no long-term debt other than HLTH's convertible notes.

As part of the merger, WebMD will assume the obligations of HLTH's convertible notes, the companies said.

In October last year, HLTH terminated a deal to merge into WebMD, citing the debt load that the new company would be saddled with in a deteriorating credit market. [ID:nBNG352389]

HLTH will continue the sales process of its Porex unit, which is currently reflected as discontinued operations in HLTH's financial statements, the companies said.

Still trying to get a handle on the MP information. This morning the June MP for SPY based on Yahoo info was 83, but based on CBOE it was 90. They both indicated 91 for July. That is some difference in the June numbers. Spy currently at 91.88.

dave, I bought TBT yesterday when it reversed and seemed to be establishing a trend. So far this morning the vix is coming down a tad along with UUP. Europe is mostly up, U.S. mkts are up and I think we have a chance for an up day in equities and a down day in bonds...so far, DYODD.

Sharkie, gold bounced off that 927 level and has been going up. Miners are basing. Looking at the charts, KGC is showing more strength than other miners

What's happened?
Speculation-They could be preparing for another silver contract that might entail raising funds and a possible share dilution. The deal might be a good one but costly. If this speculation has any validity, then word has leaked out.
Otherwise, I can't account for such weakness. Silver price is still above $14. Therefore SLW should be making lots of money with a cost of only $4.00. Plus Penesquito is going on line in the 3rd or 4th quarter which should start flowing tons of silver.

G - I'm currently looking at what you described, CBOE is likely the better source than Yahoo, I would assume. Unless there's some manipulation involved...

Mark, getting out of my gold miner shorts

Guessing a 14-handle before it stops dropping. But that's just where I'm aiming the fly swatter.

So as Bill might say, do you think we're going higher being led by Healthcare, Materials, Utilities, and Financials?
I'm guessing not so much.

Obama's proposed regulatory 'changes' that Timmy the trained Monkey will be defending will take apart the GE model.

Shiva- Nice timing. Added to KGC yesterday and got TBT filled at 52.55.

Interesting note. I could have shorted UNG until about 1 hour ago. If the market cracks today I wouldn't be surprised to see UNG below 15. How many people bought on all the hype over the last few days? Those are some shaky hands right now.

Bev- A lot of stocks come up "HTB", hard to borrow, on my trading screen. Sometimes I place a short trade that is well above the ask. If in fact there are no shares to short the trade automatically cancels. This is a quick way for me to find out if shares are available. FWIW.

papa- I agree with you re the fundies...and am staying long.

shiva- Agree with you too re the miners and starting to do some serious looking...anyone 'sold' on some with good fundies?
s

Mark - what do u think will happen to gold miners if market goes south further? That plus gold action is what is holding me going long in KGC or SLW. Maybe next week we know more

UNG - i want to see if it retests the lower level (13ish) & bounces

Lawmakers Wonder if Fed Is Best Mega-Regulator- AP

"Senior lawmakers are questioning the Obama administration's plan to task the Federal Reserve with monitoring firms deemed so big and influential that their demise could hurt the economy."

Maybe it won't happen? One could only HOPE! Wall street's "innovative" financing caused the collapse, right? I say slam Wall Street.

.............

Mkts sure having a tough time getting above S&P 920. But UUP doesn't seem ready to head higher either. OPEX play time.

Shiva- At least for the past year, if the market heads south it will take the miners with it. They seem to lag the market decline but can't seen to stand on the POG alone.

Even on AUY/KGC, -10% on SLW.

Check out the move/volume on this gold stock today, already 6 1/2 million and it's not even lunch time yet

GE low was 5.73, thats a double.....I am not a buyer.
Looking to pick up some SDS at 920 resistance.

still in, not hoping, just hanging, not thrilled though.

To me it looks like the rest of the day the tape could be confined to a small trading range. But there could be a big move either end of today or sometime tomorrow. The reason I say that is, there was a small move in the McClellan Oscillator yesterday. I remember from reading in the McHugh report a year ago that a small move in the McClellan Oscillator resulted in a big move in the market a day or two later. With tomorrow being OPEX day, along with what Denninger wrote about the TAF maturation [if it does not roll over] we could see a big move [I expect downwards] starting Friday afternoon and into early next week.

[Just my thoughts]

lixia, sorry you will not post again. Its the counter arguments that help me keep perspective. dr c. is a good example. Aside the "its a gold mine!" mentality that I constantly have to prune back, Bill defends the use of pm and gold as another tool. Not the be all and end all that some publicized pundits do. Thats one very good reason to use that tool imho. Until he says...something doesn't look good in the miners. He has in the past and is quite transparent now, bless his heart. I am on the fringe of that cult and I did not take your post as rude. If I thought you might post again i would ask ....whats es? And whats a good signal away from gold and into...what?
FD I currently hold some pms, CPST and to my detriment SRS. Have traded into and out of healthcare information , comp and briefly financial stocks. I have found I am not a day trader.
peace from North Puget Sound

Mark - i am a bit skeptical going long now for more than a few days - if the sell in May & go away got shifted to sell in Jun & go away, it wud be a bummer to be long. I will be looking at some earnings play in AAPL, GOOG etc

2nd - teach us also the chopstick trick when u hv mastered it :)

Bids C$8.10 cash per share
Petro Andina stock surges 27 percent to C$8.80

PlusPetrol Resources Corp NV said on Thursday it plans to bid about C$400 million ($354 million) for Petro Andina Resources Inc (PAR.TO) to expand its oil and gas operations in Argentina, Colombia and Trinidad.

Netherlands-based PlusPetrol, which already has extensive production in South America, said it will bid C$8.10 in cash per share of Petro Andina,

The offer represents a 31 percent premium over the C$6.20 issue price of the target firm's recent C$27 million equity issue, PlusPetrol said.
http://bit.ly/lFAmT

2nd - did Mr Miyagi ever get the fly? Daniel-san got the fly in the first Karate Kid movie. Make sure you want what you wish for. lol

If oil price is actually extended here, the ratio of oil to NG is too high. Some have mentioned that NG is cheap due to that ratio. But if oil comes back due to demand (no green shoots), or supply (tankers sitting full or some country needs the mula and dumps more oil on market), then the NG price could easily go lower from here. With the supply levels of NG - stored and available - I would be hesitant to play NG other than daytrading. I'm not a daytrader so I'm staying away from it for awhile.

Wax on, wax off.

Still in. I realize this is lousy daytrading, but I cannot sell this goshdarn thing at a steep loss when just a few minutes ago there was such enthusiasm for it. I will wait these jerks out. This is a good stock, which is prsently being stolen from those whose company I wish to avoid. The time to panic out was long ago. Plus, I have a modest position size.

Timmy is a fast talker.

Looking for the neighborhood of 44.6 or so

The first campaign in the war over control of the nation's finances has been won by HB&B. The Great Treasury Raid was a pivotal success. Anyone who continues to believe that there is an Obama agenda for financial reform must be delusional. The Fed has clearly gained the high ground and Geithner is setting the "reform" agenda on behalf of HB&B, not the Administration. GE Capital represents a competitive thorn in the side of HB&B and they intend to take it out through the legal channels of "good government policy revision". My guess is that a year or two from now the lending assets of GE Capital will have been acquired by a bevvy of HB&B lenders, all facilitated by the USSA government, and GE will be a stand-alone industrial entity that has gone back to the old way of doing business. It might even be making money the hard way.

Stopped myself out on dropping gold futures. Just a bad morning for me:)

how empowering it feels just selling a losing position.

My take on AUY.
It's off 25% from the high's. It's on the lower BB. Daily RSI 7 is below 30. The stoch is over sold turning up.
Be patient, IMHO. FD - starting accumulating small position for longer term hold.

Just a thought to consider. If you are in the camp that a "sell off" [correction] is about to occur then you may want to wait a bit longer. My reasoning is this. If the so called coming correction is quick and hard [down deep], there could be a lot of margin calls. As it was in late 2008 everything got tossed on to the selling block. It may happen again considering as Mr Cara noted that PMs are the last to leave the dance floor. So if PM traders were speculating these past few weeks with borrowed money then silver and gold stocks could also fall just as fast as oil,tech, etc.

Again just my 2 cents.

Since everyone seems to believe we're going to have a major sell off, I thought I'd add some fuel for your fires:

"Based on TrimTabs' analysis of data since 1987, Biderman says every time the supply of stock rises at these levels, the market falls sharply. A notable exception was 2003, but the economy was set to rebound then and Biderman sees no evidence that's about to happen now, as detailed here.

That's the supply side of the equation. On the demand front, Biderman estimates it has taken nearly $400 billion of new buying to spur the market's 40% rally from the March lows, which added about $4 trillion to the market-cap of U.S. equities. Most of that cash came from under-invested hedge funds and pension funds, he believes, suggesting those entities have largely completed their "rebalancing" at this point.

Retail investors, meanwhile, have not been nearly as enthusiastic about stocks as has been widely reported, as we discuss in more detail in a forthcoming segment. "

http://tinyurl.com/moygte

-----------------------------

So $400B of new buying has added $4T to the market cap. That's some kind of leverage, but how exactly does that work???

http://tinyurl.com/kpg5rd
I agree with Kaimu, unemployment appears to be higher than projections and higher than official statistics. Perhaps it's the supertanker effect and just takes a long time to turn around....

Friday MP is $9. She ain't getting off the couch for a couple of days.

..............
little early on the trigger, used market order without thinking....should have got it at 55.5X. Let see how we close.

The banks whose counterparty ratings and outlooks were changed are:
• BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT) from A+/Watch Neg/A-1 to A/Stable/A-1
• Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) from A-/Watch Neg/A-2 to BBB/Negative/A-2
• Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) from A/Watch Neg/A-1 to BBB+/Negative/A-2
• Synovus Financial Corp. (NYSE: SNV) from BBB+/Watch Neg to BB-/Negativ
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) from AA/Watch Neg/A-1+ to AA-/Negative/A-1+
• Whitney Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: WTNY) from BBB/Watch Neg/A-2 to BB+/Negative/B

http://bit.ly/4CLjdg

G/Shiva- Maybe if I wax on/wax off every Thursday for a few months I'll start to get the hang of it. More likely, I'll learn to press my wins, and back off quickly each time I take a hit from UNG. No plays in NGas today.

photogray, es is just e mini s@p futures. I am really not a stock person. My focus is totally the index futures, so can not recommend anything here.

""Where does this BS strong dollar stuff keep coming from anyway, and why does it never have attached any form of technical analysis supporting the case?""

It is only just an opinion Man! Only time will tell.

Alright, I am going back to my beloved es scalping. This three posts already exhausted me! :-)

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

"That's a net $53 billion drain in system liquidity, on top of the $~70ish billion drained by TARP repayments..."

After the players had their fun at the open, they stopped for awhile (10:45am-1:30pm and now they are back. It could be a buying opportunity, ADX is turning up, RSI(7) is near 30, but....

You might want to review the Economic Calendar at http://tinyurl.com/3hyq2f daily before the market opens and weekly for a heads up on market movers.

At about 1:30 ET the buck moved up, and at 2 it spiked up really hard. Not sure what caused it but it's stepping on gold & silver and the PM stocks.

FWIW I agree with Bev, if there's a general sell-off, PM stocks will get sucked into the morass. I'm out of my longs, I'm just doing put writes because you don't have to be quite as "right" and you've got a few points cushion if things go badly.

To date, on my put writes, things have definitely "gone badly." :)

"So $400B of new buying has added $4T to the market cap. That's some kind of leverage, but how exactly does that work???"

volume. if 1 share of xyz stock trades at $100, then all xyz shares are valued at $100. you've heard the "volume-less rally" talk? apply the basic concept across the board and there is the leverage. of course, any price without volume = the wrong price.

Well Bev, looks like you hit it. will probably be all cash by 2pm friday. Think it will be a selloff day ?

Just another day in paradise

Last week I put in a sell limit order on SPNG above the open and was watching to see if it moved down. I had intended to lower the price and sell if I saw the stock selling off early and buy it back on a spike down. About 20 minutes into trading, the power went out in my house for no apparent reason. I picked up my laptop and headed to chipotle (where I had watched the market crash for a week in september after my power went out due to high winds from the remnants of hurricane ike - my power was broght back after about a week on line by some crews from canada - thank you to our neighbors up north). It took me a while to get there and it seemed to take forever for my windows xp laptop to boot up. In the meantime, the stock had spiked up and my sell order was executed (like I should be). I also found out that they only let you stay n the internet for 30 minutes between 11 and 1. So then I scrambled to find another place and ended up at the library. My laptop could access the network but wouldn't let me onto the internet. I finally accesseed the internet from one of the libraries terminals. In the meantime SPNG had gone from 18 to 26.5 and I missed out on a huge gain.

In my panic, I had forgotten about the sell order and forgot that I could get onto the internet via my blackberry (in a crippled form, but better than nothing).

So, it maight make sense to invest in a generator even though these events are rare (but all too frequent). I could have paid for many generators with the money that I missed out on.

What did I learn from this?

Write down the trades I have open as a backup to computer, internet, or electrical problems.
Remember that I can use my blackberry as a backup.
Go straight to the library if it happens again.
Consider buying a generator.

Just thought that I would share this so that you can be prepared if somethnig similar happens to any of you.

newbee- Traders that use the Fidelity platform also have the option of using an automated telephone system. Commission jumps to $25, but under the circumstances, not a problem.

I am managing money if 4 different accounts which is tricky with a PC. It is even more difficult with my blackberry, because you only get small pieces of data, one at a time. Also, I have to log-off of one account and log-on to the next one. So, the "smart" phone is better than nothing for this purpose, but not much.

I went short via FXP & SMN yesterday. It has been up and down since then. I do have stops in place...they are hidden due to my paranoia.

I also noticed that these two stocks look very similar on a 10 day cart, especially the last few days.

I am curious about anyones opinion regarding that what will happen to basic materials when and if China fails to have continued buildup of commodities like steel, etc.

Quiet day.
- A failed opening range breakout (ORB) on the SPX earlier
- BAC has not even tested the early highs 12.95 (still in the opening range)
- Volume seems quite muted
- the king of HB&B GS is up over 2%
- Breadth is positive but mildly so <1000
- Crude futures are weakly positive, despite the positive action in the dollar

Are we going to have late action into the close? If so will BAC be the tell?

Lixia,

please offer your take on ES as you see fit. I monitor ES and NQ futures for market short and long-term direction from one minute to daily and enter stocks trades only when they coincide with the futures direction.

I love VAD's comments on market direction because I know from reviewing his site daily that he really does have the tape reading skills to trade profitably. From personal experience, and from watching other pro traders, I have faith that their "intuition" is derived from years of experience and involves processing information real time in a way that indicators can't (yet or ever) replicate.

Your track record lends credibility to your observations, so please keep them coming.

Cheers

newb ! don't use a Blackberry for any more than "catching up". my blackberry tends to "crash' at inconvenient times. Great device, has limitations. Use your laptop, get an add on for wireless internet.

Maybe an opportunity?

it had a high volume breakdown a few days ago, and I got it yesterday on the (failed) rebound. But I'm thinking of adding on the breakdown of support at 34.

FD: short BBY @ 36

That's got to be a great price, but not if the market is going to tank!

realitytrader.com

thanks and thanks

I agree, it's at a nice level but now 8.37 and trending down on a 4 & 7 month chart. On a 5min, 7 day chart RSI's look great but +DI on ADX is still trending down. I'll wait for confirmation.

Thanks for the reminder Bill. Your report and chat lead in today were superb. I hope you feel better soon. I know others with similar dermatology issues and they take care of anything right away.

I have seen times where all of a sudden a trade will occur way out of the range(especially on a small order).

Lets say the bid is 15 and ask is 15.1 and all of a sudden a trade occurs at 16.

I don't know if this is a result of someone miss-entering a price, making a market order (which I had assumed would trade at the "best price" available (i.e. the asking price), or if it is an attempt by someone to jump start the price upwards.

Thoughts anyone?

sammas- In 1981, my Mom, who at the time knew absolutely nothing about metals or markets, bought a few silver bars for all of her kids around $50/ounce! She still has them parked in a safety deposit box somewhere.

When trading penny's-you are in the dark even when the screen is on. :)

I have been there when you cant access your account when you have a trade on -not a good feeling.

since the price was above the opening price, i "made" a smal amount, but lost out much more.

I am learning from my mistakes, but the cost has been high

Still climbing, even with UUP +10. TBT is higher than it was when UUP was +0.05. So...treasuries are in distribution despite the rising $USD.

of being locked in an echo chamber with her after she had 5 cups of coffee...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124477575898508951...

"Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to significantly boost purchases of U.S. Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities when they meet in late June, but could make other adjustments in the face of rising bond yields and fresh signs of an improving economy.

Fed officials have become more confident recently that they have stabilized the economy and set the stage for recovery. But divisions are brewing within the Fed over whether it should do more to speed the healing, pause, or start pulling back to avoid an outbreak of inflation.

Those crosscurrents are likely to inhibit bold new strokes by the Fed at its next meeting, in contrast to earlier in the year, when a bleak outlook spurred aggressive action.

The Fed's bond-purchase programs are designed to drive up Treasury prices and push down interest rates across the economy. The bond and mortgage-debt purchases have been at the center of the government's efforts to jump-start economic activity.

But as bond yields and mortgage rates rise, the Fed is struggling to gauge the effect of its buying and to decide how to proceed."

so much for the fed's magic printing press

ALOHA !!

lixia5 posted ... "I see gold either has substantial down risk or it goes through a complete melt down, relatively speaking."
Is the substantial down risk due to deflation? Is the complete meltdown due to less spending that begets less DEBT? Can you clarify that statement more?

"Gees, one can measure money in gold, but so can it be done with corn, with pigs, etc..."
Here on the Big Island is the Parker Ranch, largest family-owned operational ranch in America, with some 235,000 acres. Why would I want a monetary system based on unlimited renewable stock? That means the Parker Ranch would own the biggest printing press in Hawaii ... That statement makes no sense in terms of a "real monetary system" based in long term store of value and portability, unless you can breed a 200lbs pig that fits in your pocket???? I have 200lbs wild pigs running right through my property here every day and they refuse to get in my truck and go to the bank!

"How about the plain old saying, cash is king?"
How has cash been king since you have been buying gold for the past few years? I am not following this ... I have been buying gold since 2000 and and I have not seen the US Dollar purchasing power or the USDX value rise by 260% in that same time period you speak of. What measure do you speak of here that makes CASH KING? If I had been in CASH all those years instead of GOLD I would have succumbed to yet more DEBT ATTRITION ...

There comes a point when all the DEBT in the World buys ZERO GDP growth, no matter how many accounting rules change. Heck, make all "red cards wild"! It doesn't matter ...

What is your strategy here, because I really cannot fathom any of the statements you mention here regarding cash and gold and money?

ALOHA !!

2nd posted ... "In 1981, my Mom, who at the time knew absolutely nothing about metals or markets, bought a few silver bars for all of her kids around $50/ounce!"

My guess is that LEH and BSC and FNM and FRE shareholders would gladly trade places with her! And if the US TAXPAYER was not forced to "backstop" the entire financial sector then all of the World would have been happy to trade places with your Mom.

Reality is that prices aren't high enough yet. The programmed traders can easily play the market for another 2-3 weeks, possibly after the 4th holiday.
heck of a ride. Sort of a roller coaster on weird drugs. never has the market been this unpredictable. cashed out of some financials.

"In 1981, my Mom, who at the time knew absolutely nothing about metals or markets, bought a few silver bars for all of her kids around $50/ounce! She still has them parked in a safety deposit box somewhere."

such an interesting illustration that i wanted to post it again. thanks for sharing, 2nd

be buying.....

Bill; could you possibly comment on the doomsday scenerio espoused by this group for no later than the end of this summer!?!

Warning: These guys are confirmed Francophiles and Anglophobes (Anglos= US/UK)

However, their reports usually contain good information.

LEAP/Europe 2020 report @ http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-community-chat-thursday-jun-18-2009#comment-33365

GEAB N° 36 is available! Global systemic crisis in summer 2009: The cumulative impact of three « rogue waves »

- Public announcement Special Summer 2009 GEAB N°36 (June 17, 2009)

This is only my innate skepticism turned cynical, but I suspect the seesawing between currencies can largely be blamed on mothers. "Okay, children, be nice and take turns."

All central banks of major nations are in bad shape and are only a phone call or mouse click apart. They seem to be taking turns to relieve themselves of domestic criticism by keeping the balloons in the air.

This meltdown may well be a test of the EU and the Euro as much as the USD. I would guess the general populace in Europe are less comfortable than ever with having a coop system at times like these. They took on an immense burden when the Soviet Union dissolved and the Eastern Bloc countries were absorbed by the West.

The last gap to be filled was at 8.25 on 5/3. There is no further support until 7.07 on 4/21.
I completed a full position in SLW at levels down to 8.25, my final purchase. Average cost is 8.42. Now I'll just sit tight and wait.

"China's problem is its economy does not have enough domestic demand they have way too much overcapacity currently. In a worldwide consumer led recession they have no way of increasing that domestic demand."

And with the US consumer borrowing binge halted they have far less export potential. Stephen Roach and Mortimer Zuckerman both pointed this out on CNBC early this week. It was their joint view the US consumer is the only cure for the recession...and expect that to take years to happen. Even then, not like before.

If they made a movie of what is happening — who would believe so many people could be so stupid and greedy all at the same time?

I've been at a training event for the last three days with no net access, but now that I'm back I'll be keeping an eye out for spammers. I may have to simply raise the threshold at which someone gets unmoderated posting rights...

CORN (CPO) proved support today. I could've taken a position but since the market is supposed to sell off to the depths, I decided to keep some cash on the side. ;)

"How much emphasis should be placed on what they call the end of the quarter window dressing."

IMO Bev this market should have gone down after last months end, i believe it was Mackinaw who then posted that there could be thoughts it could be stalled until quarters end, and although not there yet we are close and would give the PM s two weeks to run up, there was strong buying into the close on SLW, some one really wants this and others bad.

"It takes much more talent and guts to put your own money on the line with no salary and bonus in view."

grym,

are you implying that money management is not a value-add? (not meant to be a loaded question, but understand that under the circumstances it could be; ignore if you want)

My charts come from Schwab Streetsmart Pro which I customize for any time period. For intraday I set the range (days) and interval (minutes). I can also set daily, weekly, and monthly charts with customized ranges.
You can also go to Stockcharts and set up to your liking.
I customize indicators accordingly.

2nd
Tomorrow plan is to play –OXBRE. Today premium was 1.20 to 3.80.
Instead of sell in May it is sell in June—delay for a month. QLD and SDs are on my game plan. Looking at RIMM earning this evening and reaction to it.
Expecting same will be a result for most of stock for coming earning of second quarter.
New ETF’s from ProShares to Short Some BRIC Countries, With Leverage EPV, JPX, BZQ, and SMK.
Might be a good plan to short 10 of each if available and see what happens

ah yes, lets talk more about how gold should be rising with all this money printing and deflation/inflation and how the US dollar is headed for the crapper.

yes, china has officially started buying less t-bills, according to recent reports they now own less t-bills than they did a few months ago, and how does gold react? down from the highs of last month. how does the USDx react? still above .80.

gold stocks? down very hard, no solid volume, NEM through support levels.
Jim Sinclair, the oracle of gold his own stock TRE is crashing as well, his calls for gold to move higher keep getting pushed farther and farther out. i enjoy his blog and love his work but i do not feel these predictions are going to come true any time soon, which people must understand this to mean that anyone telling you to buy buy buy now now now becuase gold is going to the moon fast are ignorant of the facts.

all the things we have been told that would rocket gold and gold stocks have not come to fruition. as i always say, especially for gold stocks which are at the same levels when gold was several hundred dollars lower. they have not kept pace, they have and will continue to fall with the market during downdrafts, the JR's are too risky and will remain so save the few jackpot winners, and gold will move upward eventually but will do so in a way to shake many off. that includes severe downplunges when everyone is wondering why its not going up.

think about the FED for a moment. would they rather have slightly higher interest rates for domestic lending and mortgages that has already happened at the retail level, or allow china to call the bluff and begin liquidating their t-bill portfolio and see the dollar collapse? which is more damaging?
taking that into consideration, does anyone truly believe the FED will continue QE on that basis and chance pissing off their biggest customers which would do more damage than curtailing local demand?

we all know there is a huge jaw-boning component to the FED, their announcements about not going forward with more aggressive QE will and has impacted the PM market that is becoming shaky because images of runaway inflation or skyrocketing rates are not coming to fruition.

Jim Rogers and Marc Faber and Peter Schiff made their money long ago, but their calls to date have been plain wrong. if you invested in either of these men in 2008 or had money up to that point you suffered drawdowns simply because none of these guys thought their commodity choices would go down as hard as they did. they will be proven wrong again, but still get the gold star treatment on CNBC because people think listening to them is being contrarian but its no longer the case. Sciff was contrairian 2 years ago when gold was a small topic and people were awash in bank stocks. now everyone and their brother is talking about the chinese and the US dollar going to crap. wake up!!!!

posts about gold get considerable attention on this board as they do on many others, gold is in a manic phase simply becuase there are no shortage of people cheering gold no matter what direction as the stocks continue to loose ground vs. the metal. this relationship until decidedly broken to the upside is your clue of true BS and manipulation. remember there are literally thousands of gold bugs who were in on gold at $300, but were in mostly jr and mid-cap miners as was the style at the time. they are severely underwater and have held on becuase gold-bugs by nature take a religious approach to gold, hence their ability to hang on long after people have left the party and prices have crashed. that faith is the same for religious extremists able to attend church vigils for 8 hours straight, they do it in the name of their faith, their belief.

i can respect any man's faith, but i dont have to give him my intellectual respect, most of what we understand about gold and how it functions is the prodcut of propaganda or superstition. the constant refrain of "inflation", deflation, hyper inflation, end of month window dressing, cash on the side lines, large buyers, institutional selling, margin calls, options expiry, seasonal weakness.... blah blah blah.

buy a farmers almanac and youll get better rationale for the movement of the stars.

i dont know where golds going. i am inclined of course to say up, but over a broad time frame. for now, there is far too much to say it will go down alongside the stocks until the USD gets hit and hit hard as bonds getting smacked isnt doing a dang thing for gold the past while, look at the TLT chart. remember that the next time some ass-hat analyst tells you about what the chinese are doing. ask him if the prices actually back up what he is saying and then tackle him to the ground and give him a reverse traingle choke until he passes buys your shares of Miranda gold.

im a frustrated gold bug, im an apostate to the cause!!!!

sing me to sleep with stories about such and such analyst that thinks gold stocks are undervalued, that commodities are coming back and that gold production is declining which should be gold stock bullish despite ongoing declines in mining share prices and increasing mining costs no matter what the price of oil is.

I did notice these:

GICS
XLF, XLU, IYH were the strongest sectors, however, seldom according to BIll do Utilities and Healthcare lead a bull unless it is to the slaughter house. I added the last part from my two cents, which are not even worth two cents anymore.

GS, WFC, JPM, were also strong...I caught some guy on CNBC saying I would not bet against GS or Warren Buffet.

However,
AAPL was up slightly on lower volume
AMZN was down on average volume
RIMM was down on twice average volume
GOOG was down on average volume

average being 10-day volume from E-trade.

It's got the headlines; attracting bad press.

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

Any IT manager from the cara community can tell you. There are stock piles of barely used blackberries ready to be re-deployed from all the layoffs.

But this didnt stop RIMM from $35 this yr, rocketing to where it is now. subtle reminder the price action can most often have little to do with the actual brick and mortar company.

agreed. I remember a long term chart of UNG that showed all probabilities of gas prices rocketing off somewhere about now, if it should imitate a previous recessionary move (maybe the early 80's recession, can't recall). Certainly makes me thankful of some simple, yet profoundly changing, education in RSI indicators from Bill.

Of course, also learnt from Bill that when talking heads knock down a particular stock, especially one that is borderline accumulation, it pays to keep an eye open.

"What is to stop investors, private and public entities alike, to circumvent gold and prioritise other hard commodities as inflation fears are stoked? Commodities that must be consumed, and therefore have short-term exchange value. Nothing I guess."

nothing except the fact that said speculation has a direct impact on the day-to-day purchase of the necessary consumables for real people. what is more important, REAL ASSETS or REAL PEOPLE?

* Buys privately-held Universal Safety Response
* Deal for up to 9.7 mln in shares and $26.2 mln in cash
* Says Q4 rev $99.5 mln * Says deal to add $50 mln to FY10 revenue
* Shares up 6 pct in after mkt trade

June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. firearms maker Smith & Wesson Holdings Corp (SWHC.O) said it would buy privately held Universal Safety Response Inc (USR) in a cash and stock deal, to enter the rapidly growing perimeter security market.

The company said it would pay up to 9.7 million common shares and up to $26.2 million in cash to complete the deal.

Shares of the 157-year old US firearms maker were up 6 percent at $5.22 in Thursday after-market trade. They had closed at $4.93 in regular session.

"Growing demand for enhanced security measures at government, military and corporate facilities presents USR with numerous opportunities," Smith & Wesson's Chief Executive Michael Golden said in a statement.

There are also opportunities in areas of transportation, railroad crossings, work zone safety, ballistics, law enforcement, energy producing facilities and international markets yet to be addressed, he said.

Smith & Wesson said the deal will add to earnings immediately after its close, expected in late July.

The company, whose rivals include Ruger and Taurus for revolvers and Glock, Ruger and Springfield Armory for pistols, also said fourth-quarter revenue grew 20 percent to $99.5 million.

Demand for handguns and tactical rifles remained strong throughout, and firearms backlogs grew over $200.0 million as of April 30.

Smith & Wesson, which is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results in June 22, said USR will contribute about $50 million in 2010 revenue. (Reporting by Nivedita Bhattacharjee in Bangalore; Editing by Ratul Ray Chaudhuri)
if you want the link it Reuters (on restriction for links for now :D )

Rimm now flat

So little of this kind of comparison is being made, and very little of it is even considered for publication.

That being said, I would be on the $C ultrashort like a fly on doodoo, long yen like a flea on a mangy chupacabras, if I didn't think that I was about to be swept from the three-piece suit of power.

But then again, the junior gold sector kind of feels like you're being swatted anyway.

The fly? Chinese make.

(iPhone)

Enjoy all the different takes on trading SLW. Here's mine:

I see support at the 5/1 low of $7.53. The channel created from the extremities of the first and fourth bars printed between 5/1 and 5/6 (Dunnigan bar count) interests me. I’d be a buyer on a reversal off the channel low ($7.53) or a breakout above the channel high ($8.98) or a seller on a breakdown below the channel low. Just a different perspective and not given as advise. Comments welcomed.

sammas,

"are you implying that money management is not a value-add? (not meant to be a loaded question, but understand that under the circumstances it could be; ignore if you want)"

I can't say no one is every helped by a manager, but it has never been an "value-add" for me. I much prefer to manage my own money. Although I am in some mutual funds right now, I have had some bad experiences with them before.

There has been talk here recently of "window dressing" which in my view is simply designed to make them look better than they really are.

What I was referring to in my prior post is the fact that they tend to buy so as not to be criticized if markets rise without them invested. Then, if markets collapse and they are all in — it's a case of "Who could have known it would get this bad so fast?" (last year)

Against the advice of my broker I went to 100% cash last July. I did the same in January of 2001. Both times I was much better off than if I had followed the advice of the "experts". I am currently carrying a large cash balance.

They are all what Bill refers to as the "Sell Side". Even those who mean well and are honest are convinced diversification is good and more diversification is better. Take a look at what happened to the average mutual fund last year. I closed the year even.

Before I ever heard of the term Black Swan, I was aware that the unexpected never before experienced is our biggest risk. I think the current global situation is so new there are no trustworthy "the last time" situations.

"Are you implying that money management is not a value-add?"

I love that question, as it's one that we all ask, either of the fund managers piloting our 401(k)s or of ourselves (for those of us who trade our own accounts).

(a) Why is it exactly that the majority of fund managers fail to beat the benchmarks? Shouldn't the majority of them beat the indexes? If I were managing OPM and had to (figuratively) face my clients at the end of each quarter/year and justify my perennial underperformance, I'd quit. For these managers to stay on, they'd almost have to drown out the noise with nightly martinis and extramarital distractions, or insulate themselves inside a nether world supported by like peers.

(b) Why is 'maximum frustration' hands down the most likely path most investors find themselves on? Really just another way of asking why the majority of expectations/predictions will be wrong. (Of course, most expectations will be 'right' at some point in time- which is why all predictions need parameters attached to them that allow payoffs to be assigned to them).

(c) Which is more important- money management or emotional management? Which strategy consistently adds over time to your bottom line?

(d) Grym beat the indexes by about 40% in 2008. I'll take that over window dressing.

Gap up in the Nikkei undoubtedly causing a little discomfort in HK.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in the bear camp myself. Just tired of finessing my way out of bear traps.

Senator Bennet grilled Geithner on ILC's and the long-standing desire of the Fed to "get their hands on them", which he believes this regulatory legistation will "kill", despite how well they work.

Industrial Loan Company?
International Letter of Credit?
Irrevocable Letter of Credit?
Independent Learning Centre?
Icelandic Love Corporation?

Dang, why don't these bozos learn to speak English?

Does anyone have an idea what he was referring to?

Pz- Instinct. Which right now is (apparently) aligned with what with Bev and lixia5 have posted. The 'recovery' (if that's the right word) does not feel right to me.

Not to make light of those who have already lost their jobs/homes, but I think Americans have yet to feel real pain.

It amazes me to still see celebrities headlining the news when I log on in the morning. That needs to change.

Mark- Training video? All well and good. Here's how I really learned to trade UNG:

http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/index.jsp?cid=212403

Very interesting. Thanks, CP.

Craig

Interesting use of the various moving averages on your chart.

Thanks for the chart Craig. Nice shorter term snapshot. I do most of my screening with 2 year charts, but your chart shows a pretty clear trendline break. Heres another version from stockcharts (2 year).

"Paul Grignon's 47-minute animated presentation of "Money as Debt" tells in very simple and effective graphic terms what money is and how it is being created."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8

I think this might be the one. If not, it is really good.

Regards,
KC

Bill, you might have been thinking of this one, "The Money Masters". This is part one which will also link you to part 2.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6076118677...

Jock, I'm about 1/3 through it, and with my schedule it is a slow read, but I would be happy to mail it to you if you can wait.

Mark, pretty amazing isn't it. 20 years ago you would have to post a question in a trade magazine, by letter submission and then wait for a written response, could take weeks or months. Now post a question and a 1000 members scan their bookmarks and you get a response in minutes.

Heck I still tell my kids how I had to walk.... walk to the other side of the room to change the channel on the TV, they have no concept.

I think I found it.
In utube search "federal reserve", then in the list there is a series of videos called "zeitgeist-the movie-federal reserve" and there is a series of 5. I think these were the ones???

Bev,
The MA set-up is from Dave Landry's swing trading (Thank You Dr. Ron) where he uses crosses (he calls them "bowties") of the faster MA's to indicate trend changes. When the faster MA's flip over and cross the longer averages it's a pretty strong signal and forms what looks like a bowtie, a simple trading pattern that I use because I can recognize it fairy easily. He uses a simple 10 period and then an exponential 20,30,40 period MA and then a simple 50 MA for reference. I have added the 200 simple MA because it's a support/resistance level presently for the SPX, but I expect if it falls below the 200 dma we will see those MA's all flip and fall through the 50, which you can see they are aiming for on the right edge where they are starting to roll over.

As long as they stay flipped you can stay with the trend and turn a swing trade into a buy and hold or a short and hold until the RSI warns of another trend change and a new flip confirms it again.

So if those MA's flip (and the indices move below the 200 dma) I will go short and stay short until the RSI-7 hits it's extreme low and the MA's start to flip again. This will keep me on the right side of the trend and prevent me from trading in and out unnecessarily.

As Landry says, "I'm just a trend following moron".

Shark made a comment about how following longterm trends is where the money is, and I think this tool is the way to do that. I won't buy the bottom and maybe sell a little late but I'll take that big bite of the middle of a trend, and sometimes they last for years.

Try putting up a multiyear chart (try something like 5-10 years) of any of the indices with those MA's and you will see the "bowties" and resulting trends very clearly.

You can also use it for other timeframes but it works best for true swing trades that might go longer.

Jock, For how Gann works check out Ron Sen's site when he's posting the square of nine. It looks like it verges on astrology, voodoo, numerology and tarot cards, but it's amazing how it seems to work.

Wow. You guys are great. Not only did Ken send me a personal email with links to videos that will help me, but then a bunch of you are searching for the info as well. My memory was faulty as usual and what I had watched from Bill's links was "The Money Masters" and now thanks to Quasi I have them again. Plus I have a new one to look at with the Zeitgeist suggestion.

As you can see I am new to sending messages on this blog but I assure you I read it avidly every day.

Thanks again everyone and I just hope I can be of assistance to someone in the future.

PS. Bill it is a wonderful service you are providing for all of us. If the sun is causing you any problems in the Bahamas you can always come and visit me in Northern Alberta, we have two or three whole days in the summer that you can get a sunburn.

That was cool.

Sammas, you have my reply to the question of asset hoarding neatly tied up in your Fekete article find. Nice one. Thanks.

From group interaction here I appreciate more the libertarian qualities of Adam Smith's philosophical venture into economics, and not simply the dogmatic ideological garbage of "free markets" spewed out by talking heads.

Number2son, this is my complaint with Krugman. He is as much party to this fraud as any other who didn't want to raise the subject. From Sammas' Fekete link:

"This intoxication obscures the sad end that arrives when the merry-go-round is coming to a jerky halt, when credit is exhausted or withdrawn, and the kitty is found empty. The nation is facing a most serious economic disaster followed by prolonged economic pain. Unfortunately government economists, university professors, and financial journalists have taken their share of the fun and they failed miserably in their duty to forewarn people of the coming disaster."

After watching that fascinating video and reading Fekete's article, you've gotta wonder what the Nobel Prize is all about. I recall at least one figure in literature or advocating the public's attention to social concerns that has refused acceptance of the Nobel award. I begin to understand why.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/06/time-wounds-all...

I try to explain Gann 2-day swing charts...and show some oversold RSI7 weekly only items.

2nd—ave,

My view is that we will not begin to see "Change we can believe in" until those in the elite class are feeling it too.

I got this picture from a friend. Perhaps we're getting closer. :-)

Bay Area median home price ticks up 12%

Associated Press

06/18/09 11:45 AM PDT

SAN FRANCISCO — The median home price in the San Francisco Bay area increased more than 12 percent from April to May, the second month-on-month increase in nearly two years, a tracking firm reported Thursday.

The price increase reported by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick comes as the overall number of homes sold in the Bay Area had increased for nine months in a row.

Still, May's median home price of $341,500 in a nine-county region of Northern California was almost 34 percent lower than the May 2008 median price of $517,000.

DataQuick also says home sales increased nearly 19 percent from a year ago. Foreclosures accounted for about 42 percent of the May sales, down from a peak of 52 percent in February.

"Some people are going to take this as a sign that the market has bottomed out. Maybe — or maybe not," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president. "We won't know for at least half a year."

http://www.sfexaminer.com/local/48540162.html