[11:22pm ET 10/14] Recently, I have remarked in the blog that should US authorities legislate a trader’s tax, I would move all trading to international markets. This statement was not as bold as you might think. Because of interference on many levels, there has been a flood of listings out of the US and into Europe and Canada. Our broker, Interactive Brokers, offers us direct market access to stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds on over 80 market destinations worldwide. We are not limited to US listings.
Americans might be surprised to learn how many companies they regard as being American are listed on international exchanges, but we understand that and are prepared to execute all of our trades on those exchanges, if need be. Because our clients could not afford a trader tax, we would not put them in such a bad position.
I remind you that the US is deeply in debt, requiring foreign capital to trade in its markets. Should US legislators decide to prevent Americans from trading their capital on international markets, the quid pro quo that surely would come in short order would cripple the US government, and domestic financial system and economy. There would be an immediate financial Armageddon, and for that reason I surmise the trader tax under discussion will never happen.
In any case, you might find the following article of interest. It was published in the Portuguese language in a European publication today, and is not likely something that would be heralded by the players in Washington and New York. I ran the Portuguese through the Google Translator, which was surprisingly accurate.
(Heading) European companies abandon the NYSE
(Sub-head) High costs, bureaucracy, crises and scandals caused stampede
Since the outbreak of the crisis of housing loans to high risk - the sub-prime crisis - more than 40% of European companies that trade on U.S. exchanges have left the largest financial market in the United States, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). European companies complain about the high cost to negotiate roles in New York and excessive bureaucracy to prove the transparency of transactions. Since 2007, companies like Allianz, BASF, E. ON, Vivendi, Lafarge, Suez and GDF Fiat returned to their home markets, like London, Paris, Milan and Frankfurt.
The withdrawal began in April 2007 and coincided with two factors: the worsening of the subprime crisis and reform of financial accounting standards and the Security Exchange Commission (SEC), which among other things facilitated the withdrawal of foreign companies. Since then, players like Danone, British Airways, Adecco and Telekom Austria have abandoned the U.S. market, opting to trade their securities in squares closer to their headquarters, where in Europe.
The last major group to announce his departure was a German insurance company Allianz. "When we first joined the NYSE in 2000, wanted to have international visibility and attract the attention of new investors," argued the newspaper Le Monde a spokesman for the company. "But things have changed, and 95% of our shares are traded on the German market. Frankfurt is our place." The company also makes markets in Milan, London, Paris and Zurich.
A similar decision had already taken the French advertising group Publicis, for which the cost of maintaining the U.S. exchange was not worth it, since only 1% of their securities transactions are made in the USA. In 2007, Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat, had taken the same initiative in terms of spending too high. Marcus Schenk, chief financial officer of German utility E. ON, justified the same way the decision. "Our goal is to reduce the complexity and costs," he said at the time.
PROCEDURE DEAR
These decisions weigh more for the U.S. exchange than for its competitors. Between 2000 and 2007, the number of European companies that trade stocks on the NYSE had risen 4%, even with the entry into force of legislation considered adverse, the Sarbanes-Oxley, that after the Enron scandal in 2001 created new rules accounting transparency, making it more complex the supply of shares on the market and, above all, increasing the process.
Since then, the European presence has fallen 40%. The explanation of the phenomenon can be found in the early '90s, the Nasdaq, the index of high-tech companies. With the outbreak of the crisis of the companies. Com, 2000, 34% of companies outside the United States withdrew their names from the list of offerings in New York.
Coincidence or not, the rout experienced by the NYSE comes amid a succession of crises and scandals: subprime, Lehman Brothers and Madoff are three examples. In contrast, 71 new companies accented foreigner settled in the London Stock Exchange (LSE) between 2006 and 2007.
"The taxi lost American splendor from Enron in 2001. The financial crisis and the scandals that followed, as Madoff, accentuated the loss of credibility of the U.S. market," believes Jean-Pierre Agazzi, expert cabinet audit accounting firm Deloitte.
This argument is not well accepted by three researchers at the University of Toronto, Craig Dodge, Andrew Karolyi and Rene Schultz. According to the study that produced on the subject, the decline in the number of companies has more to do with acquisitions, mergers, restructurings and bankruptcies.
The fact is that while the NYSE loses European companies - but wins Chinese and Latin American - European markets are preparing for a resumption of new businesses, possibly in the first quarter of 2010. Companies like Polarcus Norwegian, Dutch Delta Lloyd and the German Germany2 and Unity Media has announced the opening of capital in the bourses of the European Union bloc.
--Andrei Netto, CORRESPONDENT, PARIS
Comments
China putting screws to Macau once again
Fearing another liquidity crisis, Chinese authorities tonight announced further sanctions against the gaming industry in Macau. And Steve Wynn considered himself Chinese? Think again. And what's to happen to the Las Vegas Sands securities offering that was to happen there next month?
These stocks just might face some selling pressure in the near term.
Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies
While I see Bills point there is one central factor that could undermine any move to trade other exchanges and that would be currency fluctuations. I am assuming that trading in Germany is Marks and China - Yuan, Canada - CDN, etc.... and the fact is most individual investors who live in the USA and trade the US markets like and want to be in dollars. They live in dollars and that is the currency they relate to in their life. They want nothing to do with other currencies. They can make in the market and lose their butts in the underlying currency. Not worth it. And professional traders Advisors like Bill will have to pass that risk (indirectly) to his clients.
I mean right now if I said hey sorry we have to trade in Euro currency with it a $1.50 to the dollar, how would you all feel. Maybe some of you think it will go much higher while others may say it will correct to 140 or whatever. I like dollars and want to stay in dollars.
For all the talk about the demise of the US Dollar frankly that has as much credence as the naysayer’s of a 10,000 plus on the DOW or 1090 SPX. It's a casino market. Ask all the poor schmucks who are short this market and getting killed that being right in principal has nothing to do with reality. Maybe the dollar will recover and maybe it won't.
Just thinking out loud......................
the buck, down again
Oil making new highs near 76, gold looking like its in an ascending triangle in asia (possibly breaking back above 1065), the buck floating down to 75.25, bloomberg news celebrating the breaking of DOW 10k with a special headline, and my friends asking me, "should I put all my money into the market now?" Its a new era, the era of pretend, extend, and hope nobody asks for their deposit back.
How low will the buck go? There is support at 75, but if we get to 72, SPX should move near 1200. Wouldn't that be something?
What's My Blog Worth?
Wanna be's may want to think about such an endeavor before they think it leads to a road filled with riches.
Bill Cara is ranked #6. And he puts Blood Sweat and Tears into his beloved blog.
source: Business Opportunities Weblog
Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
http://bit.ly/1bRPPL
new to me. Thought I'd share.
Edit: two more.
Aug
http://bit.ly/2JUhsg
may 2009 - great comments. & vid
http://bit.ly/3kR6UD
repost as I didn't see the thur chat up so soon.
should I stay or should I go
Tonight, I am lost on which way to go. Up from 10,000 is all bubble and funny money. But, do I bet against the fed?
My gut still tells me to get out of US Dollars but I have to do it when dollar is stronger...
decisions decisions
Utube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ag8J2NMYmc
Re: What's My Blog Worth?
Well Bill's blog is priceless. How many self reliant traders will this blog ultimately produce? And there is not 1 ad that is not an inhouse value-add service offering. Amazing!
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
Hmmm... I watched first video, forgive me for not watching other two. I am trying to understand your context, because the only conclusion I can make from it is: anyone following it would be killed. Major bottom on USD has formed, equities are topping, put about 50% in short, and get out of commodities - and all this mid August...
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
Counter Point:
The source is to remain anonymous. First let me say it is hard looking at a chart of the dollar and seeing a major bottom. Second, if you do as the following counter point says/said you are averaging in against the trend. Personally, I would prefer to take a shot and get stopped out and try again and again rather than this averaging approach. The article also makes an important distinction between the mind-set of a day trader versus a buy and hold philosophy.
This is provided simply for debate and looking at the situation through another lens. Etc, etc, etc.
Robert Prechter, the founder of EWI, is getting badmouthed as predicted. On August 28th, in the morning while futures were bullish, Prechter issued a special issue of Elliott Wave Theorist recommended returning to a full short position. In other words, he recommended selling all remaining longs and holding only shorts. Since Prechter is a DOW guy, I'll use DOW numbers.
On August 28th the DOW hit an intraday peak of 9666. If one had taken his recommendation that morning and shorted the DOW at say, 9600, he or she would be down approximately 4% on the "investment" as of today.
But what else did he say during that August 28th?
"The market could go higher in the normal retracement range so leave some leeway."
And the chart he showed for the "normal" level for a P2 retrace was 38% to 61%. Since he conveyed that he didn't think the market had too much left in it, one could assume that the DOW may make a lurch toward the 50% mark at most, of which it is still shy. Or, using common, sense, at least DOW 10K. But what he really meant is that P2 was not expected to morph into something more complex such as a "double three" pattern of some sort. Double zigzag yes. Anything more, no.
So I take his statement to mean that one should not go "all in" on August 28th. Rather scale your investment as you did at sub 750.
So lets say you had a plan on investing $60K to go short. One could easily have shorted 1/3rd the amount on the DOW straight up at 9600. You would now show about a 4% loss as of today.
So your account would show $59,200. You have lost $800 on your early scaled-in short.
Now suppose you decide to scale in another $20K at 10000 Dow with a plan to scale in another $20K at the 50% retracement mark. Lets just say since you scaled in at 9600 and 10000 your last scale in would be 10400 Dow for an average of 10K DOW price.
Would this be a foolish investment?
Prechter recommended buying at 750 and under. Recommended to sell at/above 1030.
Was that bad advice?
That's after he recommended to short at 1530 in 2007 and recommended covering at 750 in February. And yes the market went to 1576 so he was likely bad mouthed then too.
For those who diss Prechter so easily, I would say first that he is a "buy and hold" investor. He caters to the buy and holders except on some cases "holding" means holding shorts just like you would an investment long.
Now obviously the daytrader mentality cannot see much past the next day let alone 8 months at a time. But in the long run I bet his methods stack up pretty damn good against any trading method.
And in March if someone had told you, you could short the DOW at 10K average again what would you have said? You'd said " Hell yeah with extreme leverage no doubt!"
But here we are and the same people who licked their chops at the thought of shorting 10K DOW are now fully turned to seeing nothing but Fed-funded upside.
Yet the Fed fumbled for 2 years running and could not prevent a 900 point loss! And now they are all of a sudden omnipotent.
Back to Prechter. Why did he recommend when he did to turn full short? Because the spread between bulls/bears via Investor's Intelligence surveys was the greatest that week. It has yet to even match that August spread (although it may again as a result of today's move). It was a valid pattern at the time and the data supported the call.
I really don't care if the DOW goes to 10,250-10,500K. I hope it does! The disconnect from reality will be much greater than it was in the NASDAQ in 2000. At least the tech bubble left us with great companies. The "asset mania" bubble left us with debt. And the current debt bubble will leave us bankrupt...The higher it flies, the harder it will fall.
Because reality is that America is a financially spent nation with trillions more in deleveraging we need to do. We are taking drugs to mask the pain. We are on hallucinogens.
Spark for P3? I suppose like Erik says, when they announce positive GDP and the official end of the recession is what will do it.
Rallies of this magnitude don't end on bad news. They end on great news. The news should get even better. Its expected!
Except underneath, if you look at the nuts and bolts, you'll realize its still a FIRE (Financials, Insurance, Real Estate) economy that just doubled down its bet at the roulette wheel.
FIRE economies don't produce anything real. They manufacture false wealth and skim from the nation's coffers. The consumer is dead. A new world-wide frugalness is slowly taking hold of the social order. There is no stopping this. There is no enticing the masses to change what their free will tells them they must do.
Governments will be under siege to stop the spending madness. Fear of the unknown (collapsed financial system as we know it) is way worse then a Great Depression II that has an intact and familiar financial system (the dollar).
I think people understand they can take their medicine for the good of the system as long as the system no longer is mucking (my edit for CC rules) them from every which angle. So the bankers, and connected cronies and Congressmen must be put out to pasture first and indeed a bunch need to go to jail.
But we know that won't happen and I can tell you social mood will erupt as a result. Its what Prechter has foreseen. And he is likely to be right.
I am not saying to follow Prechter off a cliff if thats where things are headed but do your own due diligence. But give Prechter some credit. Criticise him with well thought out reasoning but mindless bashing you can take to the Yahoo boards...
In the end your investment decisions are your own. Take responsibility for them.
P.S. Vad, I ordered your book, The Master Profit Plan. I'm pretty sure this is one of the last books I ever buy on trading (have way to many others that should be re-read). I wanted to get inside a pure day trader's head (I am not a day trader basically). Looking forward to learning.
Les sure has been quiet lately, I hope he's all right.
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies
"I am assuming that trading in Germany is Marks ... "
Huh? We here in Germany introduced the Euro in 2002. And I have no problem to pay my bread with Euros and to trade in Dollars (or any other currency). Trading in a different currency is just an additional risk factor to consider.
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies
Silly me. I think I've been in Thailand to long. Of course they trade in Euro. I was thinking about Switzerland and Denmark in my mind for some reason unrelated to trading hahaha which trade in Franc and Krone and thought marks in Germany for some reason. Well good to hear your opinion.
Bond Funds
Vanguard Intermediate Tax Exempt Fund had a NAV of 13.73 on 10/5. Yesterday it closed at 13.42. This is a 2.3% decline in 10 days. The SEC yield is 2.8%. The public has been pouring money into bond funds. How much do interest rates have to rise before the fed is bankrupt?
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
No doubt his thesis was early or wrong. I found his vids while researching Elliot Wave theory. His call for march bottom and 20k potential back in march was timely.
Re: What's My Blog Worth?
Not that I disagree with the numbers, but how is worth determined? If there is a system, I am sure I could game it if I had the time and inclination. As it is I don't even bother looking at server stats, and haven't ever since Amazon.com's traffic counter had Israel on my list as #4 when I know it has never been higher than say #24.
Value can be measured in many ways. There is a Tim Horton's TV commercial (I think) that relates the real cost of several objects related to hockey and then concludes with a line that the value of a particular intangible, ie, something notable to all hockey fans, is priceless. As for me, and I am sure most of the other bloggers, I cannot be bought, nor would you want me sold, so the list amounts to entertainment only.
Now, I have not seen this list before, but if there is an inference that another blog is six times more valuable, for whatever reason, than the blog I produce and you participate in, I have the intellectual curiosity to investigate why. If you do as well, please forward your findings in the Discourse. I am certain that discussion would have value, not only to me but to any aspiring blogger, and there are many of those who participate or read these pages. As you know, I have often said that I would freely give my support to any of you who want to operate your own blog because doing a good one is a benefit to society at large. If you want to try your hand at professional trading from The Bahamas, I would do that too because that would help this small country.
To me, some things are priceless, like the difference between a home and a house, a life with and without friends, and so forth.
Where has all the bad debt gone?
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/asset-allocatio...
Trading restrictions on dark pools?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
Only as good as your last call
David- Before you start trading based on my comments, let me remind you that:
(a) I tried shorting all summer long. The only 'right' moves I made were cutting losses quickly.
(b) I 'predicted' Beijing would be able to ramp up the Shanghai/Hong Kong indexes by the time of the 2008 Olympics. You would have made a lot of money betting against that call.
(c) I distinctly recall bragging a little on this blog around September 26, 2008, about a 30%+ return trading the short side. We all know what happened as I started to average in on the long side over the next several weeks.
There's always a dark side to any (apparent) success(es).
NASDAQ 100 components and analyst ratings
Rating Company Name Symbol
1.0 Ryanair Holdings plc RYAAY
1.4 Stericycle, Inc. SRCL
1.5 Activision Blizzard, Inc ATVI
1.6 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA
1.6 Warner Chilcott plc WCRX
1.7 Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp CTSH
1.7 Express Scripts, Inc. ESRX
1.7 Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD
1.8 Foster Wheeler AG. FWLT
1.8 Google Inc. GOOG
1.8 Liberty Global, Inc. LBTYA
1.8 Life Technologies Corporation LIFE
1.8 The DIRECTV Group, Inc. DTV
1.8 VeriSign, Inc. VRSN
1.9 Amgen Inc. AMGN
1.9 FLIR Systems, Inc. FLIR
1.9 Intuit Inc. INTU
2.0 Apollo Group, Inc. APOL
2.0 Apple Inc. AAPL
2.0 Celgene Corporation CELG
2.0 Illumina, Inc. ILMN
2.0 Marvell Technology Group, Ltd. MRVL
2.0 Oracle Corporation ORCL
2.0 QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM
2.0 Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD
2.0 Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN
2.0 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX
2.1 Altera Corporation ALTR
2.1 Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. CHKP
2.1 Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO
2.1 Comcast Corporation CMCSA
2.1 Fiserv, Inc. FISV
2.1 Flextronics International Ltd. FLEX
2.1 Genzyme Corporation GENZ
2.1 Microchip Technology Incorporated MCHP
2.1 Microsoft Corporation MSFT
2.1 Millicom International Cellular S.A. MICC
2.1 Seagate Technology. STX
2.1 Staples, Inc. SPLS
2.1 Symantec Corporation SYMC
2.2 C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW
2.2 Cephalon, Inc. CEPH
2.2 Costco Wholesale Corporation COST
2.2 Expedia, Inc. EXPE
2.2 Intel Corporation INTC
2.2 O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ORLY
2.2 Patterson Companies Inc. PDCO
2.2 Research in Motion Limited RIMM
2.2 Starbucks Corporation SBUX
2.2 Xilinx, Inc. XLNX
2.3 Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP
2.3 Baidu, Inc. BIDU
2.3 eBay Inc. EBAY
2.3 IAC/InterActiveCorp IACI
2.3 J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT
2.3 NetApp, Inc. NTAP
2.3 NII Holdings, Inc. NIHD
2.4 Dell Inc. DELL
2.4 DENTSPLY International Inc. XRAY
2.4 KLA-Tencor Corporation KLAC
2.4 Lam Research Corporation LRCX
2.4 Yahoo! Inc. YHOO
2.5 Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT
2.5 Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY
2.5 Broadcom Corporation BRCM
2.5 Electronic Arts Inc. ERTS
2.5 Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. EXPD
2.5 First Solar, Inc. FSLR
2.5 Hansen Natural Corporation HANS
2.5 Henry Schein, Inc. HSIC
2.5 Infosys Technologies Limited INFY
2.5 Joy Global Inc. JOYG
2.5 Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. MXIM
2.5 Pharmaceutical Product Development PPDI
2.5 Ross Stores, Inc. ROST
2.5 Sigma-Aldrich Corporation SIAL
2.6 Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE
2.6 Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN
2.6 Fastenal Company FAST
2.6 Intuitive Surgical, Inc. ISRG
2.6 Juniper Networks, Inc. JNPR
2.7 Autodesk, Inc. ADSK
2.7 CA Inc. CA
2.7 DISH Network Corporation DISH
2.7 Hologic, Inc. HOLX
2.7 Linear Technology Corporation LLTC
2.7 Logitech International S.A. LOGI
2.7 NVIDIA Corporation NVDA
2.7 Paychex, Inc. PAYX
2.8 Cerner Corporation CERN
2.8 Citrix Systems, Inc. CTXS
2.8 Liberty Media Corporation LINTA
2.8 News Corporation NWSA
2.8 Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN
2.9 Akamai Technologies, Inc. AKAM
2.9 Biogen Idec Inc BIIB
2.9 Cintas Corporation CTAS
2.9 PACCAR Inc. PCAR
3.1 Garmin Ltd. GRMN
3.7 Sears Holdings Corporation SHLD
2.3 Average
Taxing trades?
Well, why not? Taxes, both visible and invisible will be piled on us as each level of government seeks to get enough revenue to meet "pre-existing conditions" some their own and others as unfunded mandates.
Common sense says tax relief would encourage hiring, but instead the additional taxes and the looming giant of health care costs is choking off any chance of "job creation".
1937 saw a tax hike which caused another submersion and required full-out WW2 arms manufacturing to come to the rescue.
I think it was Hegel who said something like, "The only thing we have learned from history is we learn nothing from history," (that's close).
Driving buyers and sellers to other markets is, I believe, a new twist — of the knife.
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
"Les sure has been quiet lately, I hope he's all right"
Telestar, Les is on vacation for 2 weeks. See his post below.
"Off to Lucca and the Tuscan countryside for two weeks tonight. Fingers crossed the market doesn't drop without me. cheers.
submitted by Les on Fri, 10/09/2009 03:14 #48529
Re: FAZ @ 17.48/ OFF (pre-market) @ 18.09
Probably selling early, but just 'trading the plan.'
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
New Coverage:
PBR - Bernstein Initiates with a Market Perform. PT = $56
SLB - BMO Initiates with an Outperform. PT = $91
Dark Pools
Maybe I'm a simpleton, but...these are "publicly" traded companies, yes? Then, why are they allowed to be traded privately?
Arguably, one could say that the "shares" are the property of an individual or legal entity, and they should have the right to dispose of them as they like.
I would expect the regulations to be bent toward HB&B, as the derivatives oversight legislation seemingly has.
Empire State Mfg Survey
Released on 10/15/2009 8:30:00 AM For October, 2009
General Business Conditions Index
Prior 18.88
Consensus 17.5
Consensus Range
11.0 to 20.0
Actual
34.57
Highlights
The month-to-month rate of increase is picking up steam quickly in the New York manufacturing region. The Empire State general business conditions index jumped to 34.57 in today's October report vs. 18.88 in September. The index first popped over the break-even level of zero in August and has since indicated, again, rising rates of month-to-month expansion.
New orders have been mirroring the overall index, now at 30.82 and pointing to extended gains for overall activity in the months ahead. Unfilled orders have finally popped over zero, now at 2.60 and reflecting the increasing level of activity that is backing up work. Shipments really jumped in the month to 35.08 vs. September's 5.34, helping to drive up employment to 10.39 in a reading that ends a long string of declines. The workweek also rose sharply, to 20.78 vs. 5.95.
An odd thing in the report is that manufacturers in the region continue to work down inventories aggressively, at -18.18 vs. -25.00 in a month-to-month comparison that only hints at a slowing rate of drawdown. The ISM manufacturing report, that samples firms from around the country, showed in its September data a pivotal slowing in destocking that is not confirmed here. And firms in the New York region expect to continue to draw inventories well into next year with the 6-month outlook for the component at -5.19, but still much less severe than the prior reading of -17.86.
Price readings are steady showing increasing month-to-month costs for inputs, at 19.48, but no pricing power for outputs (or finished goods), at -5.19. Today's data are definitely a positive, suggesting that the manufacturing sector, which was among the first sectors to contract, is poised to help lead the whole economy into recovery. Next up at 10:00 ET is the Philadelphia Fed's regional manufacturing report.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index rose nearly 7 points in September to 18.88. This was the highest since November 2007 when the index hit 25.02. Prospects look good for October as the September new orders index advanced nearly 6-1/2 points to 19.84
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York rose to its highest level in five years in October, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 34.6 in October from 18.9 in September. The new orders index climbed in October, while shipments shot up 30 points. The employment index was positive for the first time in more than a year. The index is of interest to investors and economists primarily because it's seen as an early indicator of what the Institute for Supply Management's October national factory survey due out in two weeks may show. In September, the ISM manufacturing index slipped to 52.6% from 52.9% in the previous month
Cara 100 News (WMT)
WalMart makes big move into no contract wireless service:
http://tinyurl.com/yjvhtx7
Jobless Claims
Released on 10/15/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk10/10, 2009
New Claims - Level
Prior 521 K
Consensus 520 K
Consensus Range
500 K to 530 K
Actual 514 K
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of people filing for state unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 514,000 in the week ending Oct. 10, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
It was the fifth decline in the past six weeks. It's the fewest initial claims since early January. Initial jobless claims have been above 500,000 for 48 straight weeks.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected initial claims to fall to about 510,000. The level of initial claims in the week ending Oct. 3 was revised up by 3,000 to 524,000. See Economic Calendar.
The four-week average of new claims dropped by 9,000 to 531,500, also the lowest since January.
The number of people collecting state benefits fell by 75,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.99 million in the week ending Oct. 3, the lowest since March. The insured unemployment rate (the proportion of covered workers who are collecting benefits) fell to 4.5% from 4.6%.
Compared with a year ago, initial claims are up 11%, while continuing claims are up 66%.
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
Telestar, if you aimed for day trading stuff, you picked a wrong one, Master Profit Plan is a different animal, Techniques of Tape Reading would be closer... but I am sure you won't be disappointed. To put it in a few words, TTR shows MY trading system and philosophy, MPP shows how to design YOURS.
As for Prechter's call, 2 things... first, and not very important, I'd have to disagree with many points in the article you quoted - not because they are without merits but because this kind of reasoning can actually be applied to practically any call and make it look a right one.
But second point is more important: I am far from bashing him or denying his right to change his opinion the next day (in fact good trader will do just that when market dictates so). That's a problem with one-time contact with audience (like TV interview) vs continuous contact where one can make corrections as situation changes. Actually, if I had to come out and explain what went wrong after that call, this would be main point I'd make.
My question about that video was not as much about video itself as it was about the context it was linked in, since it looked like it was referred as a good call (which, in the end of the day it was not).
Waiting Watching
"Missing opportunities is not fatal to long-term success; experiencing a devastating large loss almost certainly dooms all traders."
For the first time I am with you on this Bill and am sitting and waiting. It feels odd to have sat through the post Goldman rise yesterday. Last week I went 100% cash and the market continues to rise. I made some great percentages over the last few weeks and am now out till the next correction. That second leg down never happened and as your Traders Notes indicated today, HB&B are playing a tight game here. Ive kept a very small portfolio recently and am watching like an Eagle for the next entry point. Specific prices and specific stocks in mind.
Thank you for the great tuition.
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump 23% to Record in Third Quarter
http://bit.ly/2cZ34x
Pick your poison. Another 500,000+ people filing new unemployment claims or housing implosion continuing, and seeping into commercial.
Our times in a nutshell
Ironic juxtaposition in today's Bloomberg headlines:
Goldman Net Beats Estimates on Trading, Investments
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump 23% to Record in Third Quarter
And then, of course, there are the unreported stories about the crisis in state and local governments, who now find themselves with a fraction of projected revenues. One small manifestation of this is in my wife's middle-school classroom - where she now must accommodate over 50 students and has adapted to the situation using crates for supplemental seating and an ingress/egress system that requires the students to move in a counter-clockwise direction (like an Ikea store) to avoid congestion.
There are winners in this "changed" economy, and there are losers. Their identities have not changed.
HOG Looking HORRIBLE
cutting my losses on my Nov call options. small position i was trying to use to add to my larger 2010 expiry short positions.
"Harley-Davidson 3Q profit falls on lower shipments"
http://bit.ly/4zJl9D
MILWAUKEE (AP) -- Harley-Davidson Inc. said Thursday that its third-quarter profit slid 84 percent on fewer motorcycle shipments and recession-related difficulties in getting loans for its customers.
The motorcycle manufacturer also plans to stop making Buell motorcycle products and will sell its MV Agusta division.
OUCH - glad it was a small speculative position
Re: Dark Pools
As much as I never considered the campaign against high frequency trading, flash trading and liquidity providers to be sensible one, on dark pools I'd tend to agree with critics.
If we have the national markets, shares issued by companies to be traded publicly on those markets should be accessible by all. The argument that those are too big chunks that being put in the open market will impact the price do not look reasonable to me at all - isn't it an idea of the supply and demand to influence the process of price discovery? It's just a variation of "too big to fail" - if you can't manage the position of this size, don't accumulate such big position or face the consequences if you did. Creating separate market for those big positions and limiting access to it? Does it really pass smell test?
Cara 100 Update
SLB - Upgraded to Buy @ Citigroup
WMT - Standpoint Initiates Coverage with a Buy. PT = $60
Capital One - What's in your wallet? More defaults
"Capital One credit card defaults rise in September"
* US credit card charge-offs rise to 9.77 pct in September from 9.32 in Aug
* US credit card delinquencies go up to 5.38 pct in Sept (Updates with financial details, analyst comments)
http://bit.ly/1mm7YA
Re: Dark Pools
Of course it doesn't, Vad...but can we really expect a "just" outcome..:)
USD action
trying to not drown this morning
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
Vadym - I'd suggest watching the earlier video NYU linked from May. I think it's pretty spot on so far...he said the rally could last for several months up to 1 year. Tough for sure to time that if that's what he's calling.
Re: Jobless Claims
giasong,
It's good to see all of these parts of the report. Too often a TV sound bite can be so misleading.
When I hear job claims have diminished I think of the leaking bucket analogy. If you take a bucket full of water and poke a hole in it (or many holes as with the job market) at first it rushes out. Eventually there is only a few trickles.
To me it is the last line which tells the story best...
"Compared with a year ago, initial claims are up 11%, while continuing claims are up 66%."
Intel Corp. (INTC) review
J. Pitzer (CS) maintains OUTPERFORM on INTC [CAP: US$ 117.4b]
Current: US$ 20.83 Target: US$ 27
3Q09 PC Destocking
• Bottomline. Gartner data suggests that 3Q09 PC sell-thru (q/q) exceeded INTC MPU units by 300bps, validating our assertion post results that inventory builds ahead of Windows 7 weren't an issue. We reiterate our view that INTC's cost/margin appropriate Nehalem (servers), CULV (notebooks), Westmere (DT/NB), Atom (netbooks) continue to drive PC penetration rates higher while structurally maintaining high-50s/low-60s GMs.
• 3Q09 Gartner PC Data Exceeds Expectations. Preliminary 3Q09 Gartner PC shipments showed that worldwide PC shipments of 81m units set a new all-time quarterly peak. Units grew +18% q/q and 1% y/y well ahead of prior expectations of a 7% y/y decline indicating that the PC market continues to remain healthy despite the weak macro. Consistent with INTC commentary, Gartner indicated that growth was led by a rebound in Europe (+26% q/q), Asia-Pacific (+19%) and US (+11%) and was primarily driven by consumer notebooks, while enterprise PCs continued to remain weak.
• PC Sell-Thru Data Should Address Inventory Bears. Post INTC 3Q results, many investors remained skeptical about inventory restocking and double ordering as a result of the much better than expected 15% q/q uptick in INTC MPU shipments (revs +14% q/q) - we believe that the data shows that INTC under-shipped 3Q09 PC consumption. We would note that 75% of INTC revs are booked via inventory hubs for Just-In-Time PC builds; the -11% q/q drop in inventories, and our MPU-PC unit analysis suggest that MPU re-stocking will only play out in 1H10.
• Remain Bullish on the 2010 PC Cycle, Maintain Outperform. Cyclically we continue to believe the market is underestimating the strength of the corporate PC replacement cycle in 2010 and structurally from PC growth benefiting from accelerating "S" curve penetration. We remain Outperform on INTC and maintain our $27 price target which represents a 16.9x P/E multiple to our 2010 estimate, in-line with its 5 yr avg. of 16.5x.
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
To Vadym's point, Prechter is dead wrong if he had put money where his mouth was on the August video. However Prechter put out an alert March 11 in his newsletter, that the markets were about to embark on a fast a furious bear market rally to possibly 10,000.
To Prechter's style, he doesnt seem to trade daily, weekly or even monthly. When asked about individual stocks he seems very apprehensive to give recommendations. His goal seems to be to get the major move right.
I am sure if you put both Vadym and Prechter in a locked room with $10,000 for 1 trading session, Prechter would come out a loser. Vadym would prob already finished a bottle of vodka and a cigar or two, up handsomely for the day.
SPY puts
looking to close them at the open that I bought yesterday before close. I think people will buy this dip.
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
I think main point all of these videos make is: it's impossible to make a call like this publicly without making about 25 additional qualifiers, scenarios, ifs, buts etc. Prechter here is rather a victim of format that is inappropriate for this kind of calls, IMO. But he choose to put it in such format...
SPX Pivot points being equal days apart? Coincidence?
http://bit.ly/1Ejdc7
Found the chart on another site's commentary sections. SlopeofH
Cara 100 Update (Final)
LLTC - estimates raised at Goldman through 2010. Company continues to benefit from a recovery in industrial demand. Buy rating and $30 price target.
Re: Waiting Watching
<>
Don't you mean it hasn't happened yet? The Obama team has had amazing success in hatching an extended rally from hope. I think they probably delayed the second leg down by about a month. I believe the October correction bottom has probably been postponed to November.
Re: Taxing trades?
You can't have tax relief unless government decides to withdraw from what it currently does on a massive scale. Entitlements from unemployment benefits, social security, Medicare, welfare, tax ‘incentives’ and giveaways and military spending would have to be curtailed. This is exactly what must be done to ensure the viability of this nation in the intermediate and long term. But it won't be done because as we know, politicians do not cut programs, they expand them. Republicans expand programs for their supporters, and democrats do likewise for theirs. Neither party worries much about the future, beyond reelection.
I'm just pointing this out because when I hear people throw around the term 'tax relief' I'm not sure that they understand the social chaos that will occur in order to have true tax relief, for those living and those yet to be born. People think that we can have tax relief the conservative/ republican way, where we cut taxes on the living and increase taxes on the unborn. Our children cannot afford any more of that type of tax relief.
New Research format
What I am working on now is to include a new tab on the top menu for "Research", which will be alongside the one for "RSI Tool". You will be able to click there, then on any Cara 100 ticker and get the latest (up to the day) industry research summary information from multiple sources. As a participant in the free and non-commercial Virtual Investment Club, you will be able to discuss this information with a dual posting in the Community Chat as well as in the Research section for the Cara 100 company stock. There is no doubt in my mind that this presentation will be extremely valuable to the general public, particularly to students of the market, and will help level the playing field. What has happened for too many years with mainstream media is that HB&B has put their own spin on some of the information they publish, and accordingly we need to see the actual output and make our own interpretation and judgement of what it is they are recommending to us.
In fact as we saw with Goldman Sachs, HB&B has "huddled" internally with select accounts when there were changes in soon-to-be-published opinions in this information, and I believe that is a fraud, and is a common practice in the industry. However, by reading and discussing the same subject matter as originated by multiple sources, at least in the summary form, our club will be moving toward a level playing field when it comes to information that serves as the basis for our decisions. What could be more important than that? We will never get there of course as long as HB&B publishes recommendations and participates in promotion while at the same time holding positions and trading against the client and the public that reacts to the material they produce and the spin they and others put on it.
The structure of the whole securities industry is wrong and HB&B knows it, but they go to great lengths to maintain the status quo and protect their interests, which oppose those of the public they say they serve. Sooner or later, legislators will cotton on to the games being played by HB&B and put an end to it. In the meantime, what we can do is to share among our club the information we receive so that we put ourselves into a better position to be able to understand markets, and trade against those people. We have, so far at least, three dozen volunteers. When we get into the hundreds, we will start making a small dent in their armor. Your help is needed.
SPY $111 October Puts, OCNF
Sold at $2.30 at open that I bought at $2.00 yesterday.
Bought more OCNF at $1.24...
Not much of a sell-off...
Have to agree with tof. They are buying this dip.
HB&B Switzerland: State of the Union
Swiss bankers are worried. I suppose they'll ask for Presidential pardons for their actions or are the clients they solicit and facilitate the only criminals?
Why is it always the public, and never the bankers, to blame.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE59...
Re: Not much of a sell-off...
As they say ... we'll see. I think we pullback a bit from here. I just opened a small position in TZA with a tight stop.
Re: HOG Looking HORRIBLE
Wow. unusual strength in HOG. up 2-3% after the selloff. tricky little boogers. I am just speculating but maybe they are about to be bought out? Selling MV Agusta, stopping Buell production. But i hope they are just hunkering down. Great american brand.
Re: Not much of a sell-off...
I think people will be hesitant to go short in front of GOOG's earnings.
NOK handset price drops
NOK lost $831M in Q3. Average handset price drops to 62E from 72E on the drop of the USD.
While American Cos. that export might do ok due to the USD, foreign Cos. that do the opposite might do badly...
Stock -11%.
Philadelphia Fed Survey
Released on 10/15/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
General Business Conditions Index
Prior 14.1
Consensus 12.5
Consensus Range 10.0 to 15.0
Actual 11.5
Highlights
Business conditions are improving for Mid-Atlantic manufacturers but only gradually. The Philadelphia Fed's general business index came at 11.5 in October, safely above the break-even zero level but indicating a slower rate of month-to-month increase compared to September's 14.1 level. But new orders did accelerate slightly, to 6.2 vs. 3.3 in September in a reading that points to extended overall improvement in business conditions for the months ahead.
Shipments, at 3.3, increased in the month but at a slower rate than September when the reading was 8.2. The modest level of shipping isn't increasing the need for manufacturers to add new hands and feet as the employment index, at minus 6.8, shows month-to-month contraction once again. Employees are a major cost for manufacturers as are inventories which continue to contract and at a much more severe rate, at minus 31.8 vs. minus 18.1 in September. The minus 31.8 reading, together with a negative reading in the inventories index of the Empire State report which was released earlier this morning, put into question the improvement recorded in the ISM's manufacturing report for September that indicated firms were beginning to shift into restocking mode. Delivery times in the Philadelphia report continue to speed up, at -9.3 vs. -8.9, to indicate slack conditions in the supply chain. Both the Philadelphia and Empire State reports show tangible rates of input inflation along with continuing contraction for output prices, a mix that's bad for profits but good for the overall inflation picture.
Though mostly positive, this report definitely has material for the bears including the six-month outlook where optimism is fading just a bit, to 39.8 for an 8 point drop. Stocks are slipping but only very slightly in reaction to the report. Indications are mixed for October's ISM manufacturing report, with this report pointing to no further gains in contrast to the Empire State report that is pointing to a significant gain.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index rose solidly to 14.1 for September from 4.2 in August. But we could get some slippage in October as the new orders index eased to 3.3 from 4.2 in August.
Re: Not much of a sell-off...
Yep, you're probably right, tof. But look at the GOOG chart ... it's overbought and had a nice long run.
And I don't know how they can sustain their business model given how advertising spending has dropped so much.
In the end, maybe tomorrow in the a.m. will prove to be a better time to go short. My timing has always been terrible.
Empire State Mfg Survey and Philadelphia Fed Survey
New York General Business Conditions Index
Consensus 17.5
Actual 34.57
Philadelphia General Business Conditions Index
Consensus 12.5
Actual 11.5
Two conflict surveys, which one is more accurate?
Volume on UUP
I was looking at the chart on UUP yesterday and I've seen quite a ramp up in volume around these prices. That's usually indicative of a bottom process being formed. I don't think it's a terrible idea to begin scaling into UUP or possibly in the money calls expiring in March...
Re: Prechter predicts rally near end & usd bottoming on aug 17
what nonsense.
lets rethink how someone makes a living giving this kind of advice:
Sell now... or at least soon as the market should fall, but could run up higher a bit before that happening. as a long term investor, im sheilded from actually having to stand scrutiny on my calls because i can continually defer to a later date when at some point i will be right.
nonsense. EWI is nothing short of nonsense disguised as science. Ron Rosen's wave counts alerted us right before the run up in gold of a dire drop, and a new bull market for the USD. wrong wrong wrong. but he's still making money off numnuts who think these guys know something.... barf!!!
RE: Curious Historical Parallels
In the 1920's, the great technological achievement was radio, with RCA taking a huge hit in the crash. After the Nasdaq crash, advisors were drawing parallels between RCA and the internet, which is backboned by fibre optics. But if you look at a more contempraneous interpretation, the radio technology that has the prominent attention of all is wireless. RIM and Apple are cornering the market on wireless communications.
Another historical parallel was with the 1875 crash. Back then the participating bond scheme was used to finance railway expansion, which became a pyramid network, which is almost identical to derivatives.
We have an "It's all good!" stock market
This is funny
http://thehonesttrader.blogspot.com/2009/10/we-hav...
It's all good!
21st Century & the US Dollar
Prectors Dollar bottom call, the evidence:
Since 31 July 2001 the dollar has lost -40.63% stunning, and now I know how the Canadians felt with their weak Loonie all those years. (127.58 to 75.75 per US Dollar Index Continuous).
RSI 7 Daily, 31.67, Weekly 19.57, Monthly 37.81
From 31 March 2008 for five months the US$ had a range of 73.67 to 77.11 before lifting to highs of 91.48 and 90.99 before falling to where we are today. So this five month range is the dollar's last bit of technical defense/support.
The fundamentals of the dollar are horrible and the world certainly wants more diversification of their reserves. The question is, how can they do this without also shooting themselves in the foot?
Prector's call definitely falls along the lines of a huge contrarian call/bet.
Whats UP?
on my list, the only ones up are:
CIT
MPG
AIG
WMT
I'd say high risk and defensive are up...
Keeping the DJIA above 10000
From an administrative POV, it would make sense. Now that they have 401(k)s back to 'reasonable' valuations, they need to keep it there. Whether it goes higher doesn't matter for the time being.
Re: What's My Blog Worth?
FYI, it looks like they use calculations from this: http://www.tnl.net/blog/2005/10/06/doing-the-numbe...
So it's providing a value based on the number of links to this blog (as measured by Technorati) multiplied by a number derived from what AOL paid for a bunch of blogs years ago. It's an interesting statistic, but it's pretty far from actual value. One thing that's nice about this site is we have a lot of "sticky" readers -- a pretty large portion of our readership shows up daily, and reads and contributes actively. If we looked at this blog from the potential of selling ads, I think that loyal readership would raise the value (whereas number of links to us is unimportant, aside from any influences it has on our traffic).
Re: What's My Blog Worth?
i think these issues fail to quantify the actual worth of blogs and how people seek out different information.
Mish's blog is a great, but it provides 1-2 updates a day on specific issues, usually macro-economic and the comments section is a bit low-brow as far as im concerned.
Bill's blog contains more detailed info that might require more time than the average internet user wants to spend. the comments section as many will agree is quite worthy of a look for good info and trading concepts/ideas. Bill's interaction with the discourse in a non-overbearing way adds worth to the discourse itself and keeps people somewhat honest and on-track. i think this is what separates the blog from most.
ultimately these sites are spitting out nonsense mathematical formula's, i guess these math whiz's lost their jobs in structured finance.... ;)
Handy Tool For Earnings Season
Too bad it delayed by 15 minutes (I think), but could be used for potential
set-ups.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=earningsda...
Re: Whats UP?
TOF
I am seeing utilities show a bit of strength today, XLU up moderately in a red market. I think they are responding to the bit of $USD strength we are seeing as utility yields become more valuable with a stronger dollar and of course a general move into more defensive positions (for the moment).
Covered my gold short
I definitely still think the trend is up in gold, but yesterday's weak performance with the dollar down was a good reason to take a chance on a short, but I'm covering today, not anticipating much further downside.
HPQ offering more than a netbook at same price
HPQ using Compaq label to offer ultra cheap laptops (with windows 7)
“Why not jump up to a much larger and more capable system for exactly the same price”(as a netbook)?
Also, Compaq desktop with 250 GB HD, $309.
Available same day as windows 7 launch.
http://tech.yahoo.com/blogs/null/152839
XJT & MESA
Does anyone follow these airlines? Seems like interesting turnaround plays to me...
WAG $2B Buyback
Nice note regarding if WAG will issue corporate bonds to fund their buyback.
http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=9408
Note that Cara100 WAG signalled a 'sell alert' as of today AM.
Price=38.75, d=63.66, w=85, m=74.49
(trig. 2 days ago [on 2009-10-13 at $38.27, +1.25% chg], after a 6 day DZ)
I own shares and still holding (for a while more at least) in spite of high RSI numbers as fundamentally I think WAG benefits with the Flu stuff & being better than others.
Cara Blog
I think that the term "our blog" being prominently used is hinting what differentiates this blog from also runs/rans. We own the content(minimal agency problems) and therefore make a conscience effort to think outside the box, at least some of us do.
What I have learned as I sometimes leave my box is that ultimately I need to become familiar with what drives me, how my reactions such as greed and fear shape my perceptions, and what I want/need to do about my discoveries.
I know that for a product(CTA) to successfully come into its zenith, which implies eventually downside(another story altogether), it must do what other products cannot. CTA does this in my opinion and grows in robustness daily, although we have lost some flavor along the way...sometimes foul smells can ruin the stew for everyone else.
How do we differentiate between Quality and Quantity? True it is different, we just have to figure out how and why.
Thanks CTA
Re: XJT & MESA
Bought MESA at $.275
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies
golong -
You said "For all the talk about the demise of the US Dollar frankly that has as much credence as the naysayer’s of a 10,000 plus on the DOW or 1090 SPX. It's a casino market. Ask all the poor schmucks who are short this market and getting killed that being right in principal has nothing to do with reality. Maybe the dollar will recover and maybe it won't."
Jim Rickards decodes U.S. monetary policy going forward: Inflate USD$ by 4% annually for 16 years to halve the $60 TRILLION in liabilities to a "manageable" level of $30T. Expect rates to go up if gold hits $1,500-$2,000 to control dollar panic. He states IMF/G20 use of SDRs is a gradual shift away from the dollar but leaves U.S. national security vunerable since it can no longer print to support future costly wars (edit: end of dollar as global reserve currency).
OPEC, Russia, China, and Brazil are well on their way to trading oil in other currencies. IMF/G20 (no more G8 talks without the other 12) are in lock step with the changing oil trade.
Amazingly, Mr. Rickards was allowed to make these remarks on tout TV:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1275511738&p...
No brainer to trade in other currencies except perhaps the euro and pound as they race to the bottom with the dollar. Trader tax would make the currency hedge that much more compelling. Dollar inflation will continue and those holding it are doomed to lose purchasing power.
It's that or repudiate the debt and go to WWIII. I'd like to hear anyone's strong dollar scenario.
Cheers.
Re: XJT & MESA
Mesa entered the Hawaiian market, oh, about five years ago under the name GO. For the longest time Hawaii inter-island was was dominated by two airlines Aloha Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines. About 10 to 15 years ago my friend Nolan K. was shafted by Aloha and to get back he started Mid-Pac Airlines. The islands really can only support two airlines, so when three are around it is great for consumers but the airlines bleed.
Well GO dropped prices as is usual for the third competitor and it basically led to the demise of Aloha Air. About two years after Go tried to buy the Aloha Airlines name (real slime balls), but the courts ruled against them.
Recently, oh about two years ago Mokolele air entered the market and we had three again, just in the last month Mokolele and GO merged. I do not know if this helps with trading the stock.
In the late 70's to mid 80's Hawaii was fantastic, you could go round trip to outer islands for about $70 and get a 5 star hotel for about $70 a night, so for about $500 you could have a great vacation for 3 or 4 days. During this time I would go play tennis tournaments on most of the islands and did this for about ten years and still do it occasionally, but now you can fly and play on the mainland cheaper than going outer island.
Those were the days.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=mesa&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies/Stronger Dollar
Some scenarios for a stronger dollar:
1) Dollar carry trade has been occurring into other assets classes around the world - unwinding of this trade back into dollars
2) Fed will remove language of keeping rates low for "extended" period in November - futures are pricing in a 25 bps increase in Q1 2010 - Australia has already raised providing some cover for other central bankers - If the Fed does not act soon traders will perceive them as on or behind the curve vs other central bankers
The Fed can tighten quite a bit and we will still be in a low rate environment - the zero rate policy was used to head off armageddon and a depression - not needed anymore
3) Diversification of reserves by other central banks is a slow process and as someone mentioned they are not going be rash and effect their current dollar holdings by dumping them
4) What is the alternative? Still the reserve currency. Maybe they will quote oil in something other than the dollar, maybe peanut shells....no big deal. That they still PAY for it in dollars is what matters. I don't see this changing for the foreseeable future - I see a scenario where other currencies especially Yen and Euro depreciate vs. the dollar, hence strengthing it.
That's a few I have for now.
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies
It's that or repudiate the debt and go to WWIII. I'd like to hear anyone's strong dollar scenario.
My strong dollar scenario is that right now it has moved to an extreme level. Markets usually can’t move to extreme levels and remain there indefinitely. Thus it is practically guaranteed that the dollar will move the other way, and probably by a significant amount. I don’t know when this will happen, though I tend to think it will be sooner rather than later, based on the speed at which it went down. Longer term I absolutely agree that the dollar continues down since this nation will do nothing to change its fundamental fiscal problems.
Re: XJT & MESA
From a fundamental perspective, both XJT and MESA are trading at about .3 times their book value. Granted, they're still operating at losses, but they both have a good amount of cash and their operating performances have been improving. Heck, XJT has been buying back stock recently. I think the baggage check-in revenue as well as improving traffic should boost their stocks even more.
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies/Stronger Dollar
Schleppy -
Thanks for your compelling comments on the strong dollar. I have a few thoughts to add.
"The Fed can tighten quite a bit and we will still be in a low rate environment - the zero rate policy was used to head off armageddon and a depression - not needed anymore"
Raising the interest rate on $60T just 25 basis points raises annual interest outlay by $150M [edit]. Yikes. Show me the money!
"Diversification of reserves by other central banks is a slow process and as someone mentioned they are not going be rash and effect their current dollar holdings by dumping them"
China is allowing its U.S. treasuries to expire and be reinvested with short-term U.S. notes, thereby supporting the dollar but steepening the yield curve. This will enhance the carry trade but for how long? At what point does China begin dumping the short-term notes and unpeg? The Ponzi can only go for so long before it breaks. I agree, it will be a slow process if the globe remains calm.
OPEC/G20/IMF are working on a new basket currency that will include as much as 50% gold to replace the dollar in the oil trade. China just made massive deals with Russia and Argentina for PM/Oil outside of the Comex. These initiatives are more than oil quoted in peanut shells.
Cheers.
Valuing Blogs
If we presume that we're here to succeed in the market, then which blogs actually help us do that?
- I read MISH regularly, but anybody following his fundamental overview would be struggling now
- Bill gives us a methodology to incorporate as we struggle to understand market structure and price discovery
- Everyone decides how information provided fits into their decision analysis
- Brett Steenbarger has a very useful note about reading what you don't necessarily believe, in order to get better (another) perspective...i.e. the other side of the trade
Recent someone sent me something about the possibility of increasing (believe it or not) socialism resulting in government-sponsored leverage and outrageous corporate profits and extreme valuations. Definitely made me think...for once.
Best to all.
Re: What's My Blog Worth?
Aloha,
I would think in real $(for what it's worth) the ad revenue had something to do with list position. Let's see the same list divided into with /without ad revenue.
Besides this is home for me on the net although I am a quiet member I feel part of the family here. Once a day or so I will visit other blogs bull and bear to see from their eyes where this mess is headed to make sure I'm not wearing blinders and misunderstanding Bill's input.
No preaching, no ads and an education...priceless.
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies/Stronger Dollar
I agree with all of your points - I guess it's a matter of time frame also.
My view is short term, 6-12 months maybe, the dollar strengthens....beyond that it's a crap shoot but I would expect dollar weakness.
We certainly have a problem if we are forced to refinance debt at higher and higher rates. Only way this won't happen is if we get our financial house in order.....so I guess it's a guarantee that it will be a problem. But I see the yield curve flattening as the fed raises - short end going up - long end staying roughly the same.
A 50 bps increase on the short end will be ok - a 50 bps increase on the long end making mortgage rates go up will be a killer....at least in the short run.
Re: Trading Other Markets in Other Currencies/Stronger Dollar
Can't handle all those zeros. Make that an annual $150 Billion on $60 Trillion with a 250 point tightening.
The medium is the message
There is no doubt that McLuhan was ahead of his time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
http://tinyurl.com/ykqwxg9
IRS Intensifies Global Hunt for Secret Offshore Bank Accounts
So while Bloomberg TV interviews a tax specialist who is obviously there to pump for clients, what is the video background they show? Not once but twice, Bloomberg showed the Atlantis marina and the Atlantis Harborside timeshare resort at Paradise Island, Bahamas. Twice. They showed no other video, such as Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Cayman, Bermuda, Panama, BVI, Gibraltar, Turks & Caicos, etc etc. No, somebody who vacationed at Atlantis must be the only person in the world to ever turn over video to Bloomberg that shows an offshore location -- a vacation spot nonetheless. Note to Bloomberg: Atlantis is not a bank and Bahamas has maybe 1 or 2% of the global offshore business. And if you throw in the two biggest tax evading conspirators of all, the US and UK, you couldn't find the percentage owing to Bahamas with a Hubble telescope.
Ok Michael Bloomberg, what about you? Why is your TV network repeating, ad nauseum, commercials from not-for-profit institutions? Those organizations are not paying you to run the same ad eight times an hour, so what's the scam? And on your Internet TV, why are you running, for many years now, the same couple bars of mind-numbing high-pressure music filler every eight seconds every live TV break all day every day every year? Does a billionaire really only have that one 8-second track of music in his library? Are you playing mind games or what?
I refuse to watch CNBC and now I am close to doing the same with Bloomberg. It is all trash. Canada's BNN-TV is the only thing worth tuning in to.
I see that "BNN offers users unlimited viewing access to Canada's channel, through a Live, High Speed Video Stream on a subscription basis for $6.95 a month." I'll let you know how it works out; then again maybe I'll get a satellite dish and pull it in that way. I'm already paying $20/month to watch the Leafs look like an average minor league team.
Blackberry, DSL, cable, landline, next satellite. Why do I pay so much to be plugged in when first CNBC and now Bloomberg has fried my circuits?
Re: Keeping the DJIA above 10000
I can't help but think that HB&B has engineered an improving market recently to help their friends in the administration create a good public mood which will aid their efforts to pass health care reform. Once that passes we may be in for a swift market decline.
By the way, 2nd ave., excellent call on Dow 10000.
gold sell alert?
I think we're going to have a sell alert today on GLD and SLV.
Something happened about an hour ago that just tipped them over the edge. The buck was up gently, but it doesn't seem to be strong enough to be responsible for all the drama.
EDIT: yes we had a long legged doji yesterday, and today we will probably have a confirmation of the reversal. That combined with the sell alert says we may well have seen gold ushered off the dance floor, at least for the time being. I certainly don't want to buy the dips, with things this far overbought (and the buck this far oversold).
Re: HOG Looking HORRIBLE
NYU,
IMO, Harley Davidson is indeed a great American Brand and the motorcycles are beautiful works of a certain kind of nostalgic industrial art. Note that a good part of their vital 35-45 market is aging its way out of that demographic, taking with it the nearly 60-year-old bad-boy image and lifestyle (real or imagined, depending on the rider) that H-D has traded on so successfully. As for the products, compare a full-out touring Harley with a comparably optioned Honda Goldwing on four levels: engineering, features, performance, price. The company reinvented itself once before. It may have to do it again.
HOG - A lot of volume and strength - What a intraday turnaround
despite horrid financial/sales news. Notable was consolidation of all secondary brands (Buell/MV Agusta) and concentrating on the Harley Davidson product.
The price action is very bullish. http://bit.ly/SphML
*My gut says something is going on here behind the scenes.
No Position. Just going to track this stock for a couple weeks. Breaking out of a massive inverse H&S with volume confirmation on the right shoulder. Pretty impressive on a decline of 84% in profit.
- profits dropped 84.1 percent amid a continued decline in worldwide retail motorcycle sales
- cutting 180 jobs
- For the third quarter, net income fell to $26.5 million, or 11 cents per share, compared with $166.5 million, or 71 cents per share, for the same period a year ago. Net sales declined to $1.12 billion from $1.42 billion.
I am tempted to sell calls on HOG to lower my cost basis or just bank the premium if HOG flies off a cliff.
Re: The medium is the message
Bill -
Comcast provides me with BBC America. At least this gov't sponsored news has a healthy disdain for the U.S. financial system and politics.
in SRS this morning, out of SRS now
The buy stop limit order I set on SRS last night was executed today at $9.30. I looked at the chart of Dow right now and saw a clear series of higher lows intraday. Seeing this, I decided to sell my SRS at $9.40. The position size was reasonably large, and so a gain of $0.1 translates into $160.
2nd_ave -- you see, I didn't follow your trade exactly (if I did and bought SRS at the close yesterday at $9.19, I would have made even more money), but decided to adapt it to my sleep schedule and use a buy stop order instead of buying at the close and worrying about not having to miss the selling opportunity that might have arisen only pre-market. But thanks for the idea of such a trade! The $160 gain will definitely pay for our lunch. :)
Global ETFs
For those interested in foreign exposure (long or short!), I am tracking all global/foreign country/sector ETFs on the market at http://nexalogic.com/global.html
(Essential to diversify is to look at their correlation - discussed here last weekend: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/10/divers..., also correlation of foreign currencies: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/10/foreig...
Re: The medium is the message
No not the BBC ,Browns Broadcasting Corporation.
oil breakout: +2.75 to 77.90
Serious breakout in oil today - even with the dollar up, it shows what happens when HB&B decides to make those shorts scramble for cover. I was one of them - I'm sure glad I covered early in the day! Watching since then, I think its amazing how much power there is in a rally once prices break out. Someday I'll learn to not only cover, but reverse my trade when I see something like this happen.
Re: HOG - A lot of volume and strength - What a intraday ...
I sold some calls Feb'10 $45 and Feb' $40.
I'm not sure who is buying here and what the thesis is, however, what will the price action look like by Monday if Google beats.
Re: Keeping the DJIA above 10000
kevin07- My thoughts exactly. It's almost as if the rise was contracted out-
(a) We will give you 750b in exchange for a guaranteed rise to 10000 by Fall '09, and
(b) In order to qualify for bonuses, the DJIA must be maintained at >=10000 for x number of weeks.
bought more DGP
Just like 2nd_ave felt that Dow 10000 was inevitable, I also feel that gold at $1100/oz is inevitable. Of course, my intuition cannot even be compared to that of 2nd_ave's, but I still decided to buy more DGP now at $24.90, adding to my yesterday's purchase at $25.49.
Opening a position in ERY @ 10.89
...
Re: bought more DGP
David- I'm going to ask that you leave my name out of any trading decisions. For the same reason I would ask a first base coach to stop giving me the thumbs up every time I'm at bat.
interesting post by Slope
http://bit.ly/n1Wwy
His chicken scratch chart of his forecast 1 yr ago. http://bit.ly/4aHbXk
Re: bought more DGP
btw, gold/silver prices can dive faster than anything I know.
Re: HOG - A lot of volume and strength - What a intraday ...
good luck with your trade. just for the record I was not giving financial advice. Just sharing my observations and feelings. :)
VXX (VIX) keeps hitting new lows
Personally, I don't think the funds buying stocks here represent the sharpest pencils in the box.
Tankless Water Heaters?
I know this is off-topic, but I though others might benefit from the topic as well. I am considering installing a Bosch tankless water heating system in my new house. I don't know anyone who actually has one of these systems and most of the info I can find on the internet seems to be trying to sell me something one way or another.
Can anyone share their experiences with this technology? Is it worth the investment? Does it actually save money on electric bills? Any problems with calcium buildup,etc? TIA
Re: Tankless Water Heaters?
Billy I researched pretty thoroughly for place I just built. If you're using electricity to heat water, then you'll need a 300-400 amp electrical service to run a whole-house electric tankless. A service like that will be very costly to install, and I could never justify the expense.
Google conf call web link
http://investor.google.com/earnings.html
does anyone even listen to calls anymore? 4:30 Eastern time.
Major Irregularities with Gold Bar Lists
It looks like da boyz are scrambling to find physical metal. They should try the U.S. Mint, but OOPS, they don't have any either...
Length of the published GLD bar list:
- on Friday, Sept. 25 – the list was 1,381 pages long
- on Friday, Oct. 2 – the list was 208 pages long
- on Friday, Oct. 9 – the list was 195 pages long
- then, on Wednesday, Oct. 14 – after questions were being raised about the strange machinations with the bar list in chat rooms on the internet – the list was back up to 855 pages long
Something TRULY stinks here. No explanation has been offered for the DRAMATIC swings in this list. Where gold is concerned nothing happens by accident.
These circumstances suggest that a VERY REAL physical short squeeze is in progress RIGHT NOW and a gang of fraudsters from “fiat-crack-houses” [Central Banks] are attempting to finesse their losing over-sold hand in an elaborate Three-card Monty. With reports of independent physical audits now being conducted and mysterious happenings with GLD’s bar list – GLD has NEVER looked more suspect.
http://tinyurl.com/yg2xmn8
Re: HOG - A lot of volume and strength - What a intraday ...
One thing that might be in the back of peoples minds..... Insurance... Its always been not IF you will crash, but When.... Believe me, I know from my own experiences with motorcycles ( Norton 650 )....
An Honest market ???
I watched GVA yesterday... Double 50 day. avg. volume, on narrow .15 cent UP move....... This morning ? DOWNGRADE to Neutral.... gee whiz, whatta ya' know.
Re: Major Irregularities with Gold Bar Lists
Maybe they should buy some at Harrods:
http://tinyurl.com/ygaa2yw
"LONDON — Glittering bait for the well-heeled shopper: Harrods department store has added gold bars to its merchandise line."
"Mehdi Bakhordar, managing director of Produits Artistiques Metaux Precieux, said Harrods was the only location in London where investors could buy a 27.5 pound (12.5 kg) gold bar "off the shelf."
Phew 12.5 KG !!!! approx $462,440 each
SLR UPDATE
ALOHA !!
Yesterday, Silver Lakes Resources-SLR:ASX(no silver only 100% gold) posted that Sprott Assets boosted their holdings from 8% to 12% of outstanding shares, so my question as to "who" is taking up the recent $18MIL funding has been answered.
Hummmm ... I take that back ... as it appears Sprott was buying at the $0.96AUD range and not the $0.79 as the offering stated.
I will add to my position on any significant dips.
FD: 220,000 shares
Re: Tankless Water Heaters?
Why not a solar water heating system. Made of glass tubes and free heat if you've got sun. So good, in fact, that Israel mandated this system over a decade ago in all residential property.
GOOG and IBM
Google Inc Reports Q3 5.89$ v $5.42e, R$4.03 v $4.24Be
International Business Machines Corp Reports Q3 $2.40 v $2.38e, R$23.6B v $23.4Be
- Guides FY09 EPS $ v $9.78e (Guided FY09 EPS "at least" $9.70 on 7/16)
Re: GOOG and IBM
IBM down after hours 3.25% as of 4:10pm.
Goog looks like INTC from a few sessions ago. Spike up, but its still early.
Re: oil breakout: +2.75 to 77.90
SU.TO faltered into the close despite the breakout. I suppose they could ramp it higher yet tomorrow but I suspect your short today wasn't the worst trade idea.
Re: Tankless Water Heaters?
Luckily I have my natural gas line running through the basement so I would only have to pay for a couple hundred dollars of copper to extend the line over and wouldn't have to get a new electric box (that would certainly be cost prohibitive). My handyman estimate the system itself would be about $800-900 plus about $300 + labor so in total would be $1500-2000.
As for the solar system, I'd love to do that but I don't think the dreary midwest winter sun would provide enough umph for the solar system. I do like those systems but will have to wait until I save up enough to quit the job and build a bungalow in Costa Rica....
IBM
bought after hours at $123.5
Re: Tankless Water Heaters?
Billy -
I live in cloudy Michigan and my neighbor has a solar water heater on his roof. I works well ... when it shines or thru light cloud layer. Thick clouds hamper its function.
My mother-in-law installed a geo-thermal heating system (furnance not water heater) two years ago and that was worth every penny. Works great and is amazingly efficient.
Dollar in the tank
Hi All - Seen lots of headers today about the dollar trading up - it is in the tank and not showing much at all with the dollar spot index at 75.48 ----- Happy Trading
Google - My take
My take aways thus far - quick glance read of Goog
"Google said its paid clicks, or number of times users clicked on its online advertisements and generated revenue, grew 14% compared to the same period last year, and 4% compared to the prior period.
However, the average price paid by advertisers per click fell 6% compared to the period last year, while increasing 5% over the prior period."
if this trend continues or accelerates they will have to continue to take up market share internationally to fight the destruction of cpc rates.
"While there is a lot of uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery, we believe the worst of the recession is behind us and now feel confident about investing heavily in our future,"
this is good news. they have a war chest of cash and talent. 1st priority should be to monetize Youtube. They own 80%+ of the online video eyeballs but it is a money loser! I am in the video technology industry. They have an opportunity to do for web/mobile, what TV did for Radio. But the industry big wigs are using Hulu and several others to catch up.
"—The company is planning to give publishers a big cut of revenues. Publishers will get 63 percent of the revenues from books sold on Google Editions, while Google will keep the other 37 percent. Google had previously announced that third-party retailers—including Amazon (NSDQ: AMZN)—would be able to resell access to the books, and the company now says that in those cases the third-party retailer will get 55 percent of the revenue, while the publisher will get 45 percent. Google will take a small percentage."
possibly bad long term news for AMZN (but amazon can also compete this way). Google is bullying in this arena by offering a digital product with more rev share to the publishers. This means better prices for consumers. However what will happen to physical printed books? will my unborn children never have to carry a 35lb book bag filled with books?
But near term, not sure if GOOG can hold up the entire market. my hunch is they sell it off like they did INTC.
Re: Tankless Water Heaters?
Billy,
A few years ago I removed a natural gas fueled water tank and had a Rinnai tankless system installed at the same time as a high-efficiency gas home furnace. The tank would have cost about $500 CDN and the Rinnai was about $1800 CDN installed, with a 25 year warranty on the heat exchanger. The issue is, while you do get unlimited hot water, you do not get it quickly because when you turn on the tap you must drain the existing cold water in the lines before the hot water from the heater gets to your tap. By this time ( about 20 - 30 seconds in my case ) my hands are washed with soap & cold water. The key is to arrange your plumbing so the kitchen and bath fixtures are close to the heater unit to shorten the length of pipes( i.e. time to get hot water to the tap ). So you don't want to be where there is not an abundant supply of cheap water. We actually wash hands from the cold water tap to avoid the useless application of the hot tap which fires up the heater unit when tap is turned on. BTW, I was told I would save 45% on my bill with high efficiency furnace and water heater. Actually, I may have reduced the consumption of gas by close to that but the bill is composed of much more in the way of gas transportation, extra fees etc so the dollar savings is much, much less. I hope this helps!
Re: Tankless Water Heaters?
Billy,
I forgot to mention that the heater runs from the regular 110 circuit. The installer wired up a regular appliance cord and it plugs into the wall outlet below it. In this way, if and when the system needs repair, it can simply be disconnected from the gas and water and simply removed from the wall for a trip to the shop.
IBM
added a little more at $122.90
Re: Tankless Water Heaters? Off Topic
BillySundance, hope Bill doesn't mind this bit of off topic stuff after hours, although it does tie in with energy savings, utilities and NatGas.
With tankless you have to consider there will be a slightly longer delay in getting hot water at the tap. First the unit has to pick up that a tap is open, then it will go thru the start-up sequence and fire the gas burners, but once its going you will never run out. Note NatGas is the way to go, would never even consider an electric unit for tankless.
Delay time and start-up waste are not a problem for washing machines, tubs or showers, but when you're just washing hands / brushing teeth it amounts to 2-3 times the water actually needed. I have a natgas tank system and installed extra 1/4 inch ID lines to feed all my sinks and I get full hot before you can fill a beer mug.
Re flushing the system, yes have it installed with dual isolation valves and separate in / out ports, as you will have to pump a de-calcifying solution through it periodically, depending on your water hardness. Some of the high end systems have computers to tell you when flushing is needed.
I considered tankless when I replace my own system a few months ago but because I couldn't tolerate the start-up delay, I was looking at the NatGas tankless feeding into a 5-10 gal insulated electric in order to give me the instant hot water at the sinks. But that system would have been much too expensive to justify.
Re: Google - My take
GOOG's team reiterated that they thought recession is over at the opening of the conference call.
From the earning slides they showed that TAC cost down slightly 1%. Operating Margin is +1% q-2-q, +3% y-y. Stock up 3% from closing. The stock has rallied more than 10% @ $545 in the 2 weeks leading up to earning report. Not clear what's the upside, although GS gave a target of $560.
AMD beat in EPS and revenue, in good %. It rallied and traded below closing. So, sentiment is definitely shifted.
PanAmerican Silver to reach 40M oz/yr production
In this clip from BNN, PAAS CEO says he expects production to double to 40M oz/yr because of the Aquiline acquisition.
PAAS would then depend upon Argentine politics for over 1/2 their future production. The Kirchners (Argentina's "Clintons" = 2 politician, glamorous family) will likely do well by this deal, LOL.
On the other hand, I'd expect PAAS to do other acquisitions in other Latin countries, in order to re-diversity country risk. (Both CEO's speak convincingly of regulatory reform in Chibut Province, where AQI's deposit is located. PAAS just inaugurated 1 mine in Argentina. So things DO seem to be moving in the right direction, at least in some provinces.)
http://watch.bnn.ca/commodities/october-2009/commo...
Re: Google - My take
NY... thoughts on GTWO.ob .' Gen2Media '..?? very interesting owner of very unique tech....
Rusoro
Rusoro stock has(finally) moved up strongly over the last two days. Indications are they are succeeding in negotiating stable, long-term arrangements with the Venezuelan government for more favorable pricing and flexibility on their gold sales.
Rusoro have shown themselves to be a competent, growing producer, profitable, and on the rise from 170K oz/yr to 500K/oz before taking into account their good shot at the 50M oz. formerly controlled by KRY and GRZ. (Recall that GFI owns 30%+ of Rusoro).
In their growing mid-tier producer category, Rusoro is likely the cheapest stock in the world, given the VZ political risk discount. If they keep showing ability to function efficiently in VZ, and if their claim on the 50M undeveloped ounces strengthens, at some point I'd expect this discount to narrow.
FD: long Rusoro
Re: Google - My take
baz22 - How did you find out about GTWO? I have had them on my micro cap watch list...
Re: Google - My take
I haven't heard of them in the field or in rfp discussions. Video syndication, transcoding, distribution etc is too crowded. U will see heavy consolidation next 2 yrs. Smaller shops will just go bust. Sub segment that will need to consolidate 1st is CDN networks. Ie. Akamai. The content owners and broadcast tv and cable operators control 80pct of the market. Anything online is YouTube. Coming up fast is hulu. As for the vendor chain there are two big hardware plays and various cloud offerings
Re: Google - My take
general reading... was dusting off divx.. what's your dime on divx, after goog took out ont ?... thx, baz.
Forget SLW - HL is Debt Free!
They paid off Greens Creek Loan in Full.
Fearless dip buyers
That's what concerns me.
MSNBC article: Recession ends in 79 metros, index shows
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33312701/ns/business-e...
"The recession finally ended in August in one out of every five metro areas in the United States, especially in the Midwest and Great Plains, according to the latest Adversity Index from Moody's Economy.com and msnbc.com."
Big media is really pushing this hard. I am finding it easier to work with Vad/Bill's advice of trading prices - it's beyond me to conclude who's right (recession over or not etc) ...
Re: Fearless dip buyers
Yeah, that is going to bite people eventually...not sure when but it could happen.
Gimme Shelter
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4240874785...
Remember this one from the last time we all played the short side with conviction? DJIA 14000 to 11000.
Ian McAvity Deliberations
worth reading..... especially is comments on JPM earnings yesterday
[admin note: I removed the link because we got a complaint from the copyright holder. Please be careful when posting copyrighted work. If you have to pay for it, it generally shouldn't be posted here.]
Re: Google - My take
Divx will never be an industry standard. But prob around. Google took On2. Adobe has flash. Apple has h.264 + some new stuff. Msft is paying people to use silverlight. Etc.
Where the industry is mashing into I adaptive bit rate codec where 1 codec can auto scale to consumers connection and device. Right now content rights owners are processing the source to multiple output formats and requirements.
The iPhone is the new must have destination. Live streaming is also a buzz. MLB uses a co named inlet. Check out livestream.com.
But in the end no one wants to spend big money because no one is making good profits on video. Ex 1 googles YouTube is a big money loser now. On2 sold for peanuts. Akamai and other cdn face price pressure.
Crazy futures
Who are they trying to kid? The indexes either move lower, or they move higher. But to move higher, we need a decent pullback. I think we open in the red.
Asia- Getting bold, or getting Seoul'd?
South Korea underperforming at the moment.
for what it's worth
I followed through with my plan and have sold 75 percent of my us equities the last 2 days. I have done very well since March. I might reinvest next week if I am convinced this trend up is my friend. I don't see a trend reversal so I will not buy shorts. I will hold cash on sideline and think about it further.
I am watching bill cara AET as a play if I continue long usd and us equities. I don't have any faith in real values due to rsi being so high and all the smoke and mirrors
vb
Re: for what it's worth/ Monterey 1967
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0g9PiEgYYUU
Re: for what it's worth
Here's to you, vb- well done!
Re: for what it's worth
thanks 2nd. buffalo springfield one of my all time favorites. I added your link to my facebook.
vb
Re: for what it's worth
I'll 2nd, 2nd....Nicely played VB!
Re: for what it's worth
thanks mark!!
vb
Re: Tankless Water Heaters?
BillySundance, with any luck you will also benefit from a tax credit for your energy efficient upgrade! The comparable savings, incentives and tax credit should be available from your local power company. Most folks in our area save quite a bit of energy with 'on demand' tankless hot water system and you save a closet space in your home to boot!
preparing to sell some DGP
I see gold is getting some slow but steady buying in Asia, so I might be able to sell tomorrow with profit the DGP shares I bought today. Placed a sell limit order at $25.50 for the shares I picked up today at $24.90. The position size is reasonably large, so this should be a decent trading gain, if realized.
Re: Rusoro
Hi Jock - Where does that leave my last bit of KRY? Haven't looked lately, but seem to recall they raised a bunch of money before Chavez went off the rails. Guess they would have to wait for the world court (LOL) to act before they do much of anything to restore shareholder value- all to keep the lawyers happy. I just can't bring myself to open a starter position on RML but I suppose they win the pie. Always thought KRY should have hired someone with stature, and then as model use the Centamin deal with Egypt to deal with the Southern Socialist. Happy Trading
preparing to buy some SRS
In case the market decided to pull back tomorrow, I am ready to ride it down for a little while. :) I have just placed a buy stop limit order for SRS, stop at $9.40, limit $9.50, for about 8% of my portfolio.
Re: preparing to buy some SRS
8% ? Quite a change from your earlier tactics, is it not ? I thought your "full position" was 10% of your portfolio ...
Well, I guess, as George ( Everett ) Clooney, in
' Oh Brother, Where art Thou ' would say, This market is bonafide.... ( Do Not Seek The Treasure, DO NOT SEEK..... )...
p.s. ,, Does the devil really wear sunglasses ?
!!!
Flu Vaccine
Excellent examination of the flu vaccination controversy in this month's Atlantic:
http://tinyurl.com/yhbldnz
I couldn't resist disrupting shop talk... hey, its after hours... right? It really is worth a read, so I thought I'd pass it along.
Happy trading.
Flu Vaccine
Duplicate post... :0(
SLR UPDATE #2
Oopps ...
SLR UPDATE #2
ALOHA !!
Silver Lakes Resources - SLR(ASX) has posted an amended form 603 disclosing that Sprott Assets holds a 10.6% position in SLR, not 12% as reported yesterday. It also states that Sprott bought nearly 7mil of the 18mil share offering for $0.79AUD per share.
asia dollar
This is the second night in a row where the buck has jumped at least 0.50 during asia/europe trading. SPX and oil haven't responded, but gold is down a few bucks.
There's always something new going on.
Re: preparing to buy some SRS
"8% ? Quite a change from your earlier tactics, is it not ? I thought your "full position" was 10% of your portfolio ..."
SRS was about 12% of my portfolio when I sold 2/3 of it at $9.50 on the day when Dow broke above 10000. Now I am ready to buy those shares back if a pullback materializes. I am done with averaging into SRS and will now be waiting for some TA signal to tell me that the uptrend in the market is finished. I am willing to buy some SRS now because technically, IYR still did not break above its most recent high, and if it goes down tomorrow (after having gone down today as well), it will print a clear lower high, which can justify staying in SRS. However, I don't want to hold too much SRS overnight now so as to protect myself from a gap down in SRS with a continued move down throughout the day. Having said that, the market is really ready for a nice down day now, and so a tight buy stop limit order on SRS is a reasonable thing to have, IMO.
GE earnings out
http://tinyurl.com/yks3wkw
Time will tell.
Bill said in Thursday CTA Briefing
"Time will also tell how long the $USD can be pushed lower by HB&B in order to support higher market prices. Beware; these people will coordinate the reversal, and that’s how they make $100 million a day trading against you and me".
Wondering why you say this as if we are all running second in a two man race. Wouldn't it be better to have the same trading advantage as these guys. Bill, perhaps instead of trading for individual accounts, instead trade as a closed end fund that uses the same black box algorithm systems as GS use. Have a investement period and a minimum investement and then close it off for a while. There are in fact a few funds out there that trade in this exact manner. They are for high net worth individuals and typical buy-in is at least $500,000k but seems to work and give handsome double digit returns year after year even after the high fund - admin cost factors. You can have a lower investment of course but same principal.
Hey it's just a thought
Bank of America larger losses than expected
http://bit.ly/1BCm9D
Europe down immediately.
Us future also turned down.
Can google save everyone?
Re: MSNBC article: Recession ends in 79 metros, index shows
This kind of pomposity makes my blood boil. It's like, "Let them eat cake."
"The recession finally ended in August in one out of every five metro areas in the United States, especially in the Midwest and Great Plains..."
I expect this was said from the safety of the 85th floor of a New York corner office.
View from the Midwest:
We're at (an admitted) 15.2% unemployment rate here. Houses are not selling, real estate taxes are rising and the summer job subsidy has left town for the winter. My son is working part time after being on unemployment five years ago and earning slightly over one-third what he earned ten years ago. I did the same work for over forty years and supported a family of four. He is now earning what I charged per hour in 1966.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
GOOG - Upgraded to Buy @ Benchmark
GOOG - PT Raised from $500 to $600 @ Needham. Buy
Other Stocks Of Possible Interest:
GOLD - Upgraded to Outperform @ RBC
GRS - CIBC Initiates with a Sector Perform
MFN - CIBC Initiates with a Sector Outperform