Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009

Good morning.

ATVI - Downgraded to Neutral @ Piper Jaffray

looks positive for an up day - futures strengthening

allen- I exited my position pre-market (at a minor loss) in order to return to 100% cash. Which is to say, in order to clear my head.

(With miners, I always take advantage of pre-market strength.)

I originally bought them yest for insurance, but I am taking short term gains on this GDP scam, near the open today. I will re-buy insurance on another down day.

Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR -0.7 % 3.0 % 2.0 % to 4.0 % 3.5 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR 0.0 % 1.4 % 0.3 % to 2.3 % 0.8 %

Highlights
Today's moderate increase for third quarter GDP should provide some psychological lift for consumers and businesses since it is the first positive growth for the overall economy in just over a year. And financial markets are likely to like it since it is all about expectations and the advance estimate topped expectations. Real GDP in the third quarter rebounded an annualized 3.5 percent, after declining by only 0.7 percent in the second quarter. The third quarter boost came in above the market consensus for a 3.0 percent increase.

The improvement in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in personal consumption, inventory investment, exports, and residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by rise in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending.

Cash for clunkers did affect the third quarter as motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.

Inflation is still subdued as the GDP price index edged up 0.8 percent, following no change in the second quarter. The consensus had projected a 1.4 percent rise in the latest period.

Today's report should be a positive for equities, possibly damping the view that stocks are in a correction.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP was still barely in negative territory in the second quarter with the Commerce Department nudging up its third estimate to an annualized 0.7 percent decrease from the previous estimate of a 1.0 percent decline. Final sales were revised to be more positive at an annualized 0.7 percent gain in the second quarter, compared to the second estimate of a 0.4 percent gain. On the inflation front, the GDP price index was flat for the quarter. Looking ahead, traders are expecting the advance estimate for third quarter GDP to clearly establish that the economy was in recovery in the third quarter. The big question is by how much. Since this release is expected to show the first positive GDP growth since the second quarter of 2008, this report will get heightened attention.

ike- 3% opening gaps (on positions you're holding) are always nice. Good call.

Note that QID is now bidding below yesterday's exit point.

it was a nice call - where we off to today? it was actually 2nd ave call - he suggested going long into the weak close - i cant take all the credit - NEXT

I missed the following turn-off, with the nicer hotel. That's life, man.

I'm planning to follow Bill's advice.

Only 300 shares were offered at that price, but that seemed to be an anomaly, so I snapped it up.

great print - unsure about a nasdaq whipsaw - up on gdp and jobs - how long are you planning to hold on to this one?

ike- 300 shares is such a small quantity that if the market sells off from here, I could shelve it in the garage in exchange for bragging rights in about 3 months ;)

1. I bought my QLD Nov calls yesterday as insurance on my QID & SPXU 2010 calls.
2. If i can make a quick profit on QLD calls and expect the markets to come right back down, I can in essence lower my insurance cost or avg down
3. Everyone expected gdp of 3.X%
4. cash for clunkers made a nice chuck of it
5. the real GDP (my eyes and ears) tell me otherwise
6. another 530K people filed for unemployment for the 1st time
7. Jamie Dimon and friends, who have been selling every earnings pop, prob also knew of the GDP # coming. They are prob selling again today
8. If everyone who sold the past 11 distribution days re-buys today, we should easily go above the broken trend lines and close above them.

let's wait and see what the prices and charts tell us.

FSLR and SWPRA and others in the solar sector have gotten hammered in the last several days of trading. SunPower actually had a pretty decent report, so I think the selling there was overdone. But I suspect First Solar's woes have more to do with the gains PV-based manufacturers have made on the cost equation compared to thin film. First Solar panels are cheaper to produce, but they have much lower performance and use toxic elements (you wouldn't want a First Solar panel on your roof).

No position in either.

A fool to even attempt this. Nada mas. This is much worse than hell ever could be getting beaten everyday.

I'm just going to take every penny and buy gold.

All I sold yesterday is way above where I sold it, as usual.

cheapy - dont get down on yourself - i am wrong a lot - pull back on the reigns - trade smaller - and regain your confidence

your killin me - now i gotta close out my ure

Ditto what Ike says. This happens to all of us. Take some time off, trade smaller positions, regain your confidence. Hang in there.

I'm using today's slaughter of FSLR to start a position in SPWRA. Here are my reasons:

1. Solar is not going away
2. SunPower is the strongest U.S. maker and seller of PV systems
3. SunPower delivered a good earnings report last week
4. Despite this fact, the stock has sold off sharply, retracing ~61% from it's pre-earnings high to its March low
5. I am always TOO early

Small position. If it can't hold support here, I'll exit and wait for a stronger buy signal.

I don't know.

First Solar - LONG - this looks like a good stock for the future.
Dropped by $30 this morning to $125 from $155. Its MARCH crash low is $105. so not much to go for base support.

Every government will be pushing stimulating into solar "stuff". It is the #1 leader. 2009 PE = 17 which is CHEAP if they can get growth.

Wallstreet is buying today?

number2son,

I was just thinking the same thing but why not FSLR at 123.00?? It is a bill cara stock.

I think it is a low risk bet - but I'll check out spwra too.

vb

I know, it's a late post. I can't blog that fast, man.

Thanks Bill! that would be great!

I was just thinking the same thing but why not FSLR at 123.00?? It is a bill cara stock.

Of course, I respect Bill enormously. But I prefer PV makers to thin film, both from a valuation and environmental perspective. SunPower, I believe, has a better future than First Solar. JMHO.

So TA comes through.

Released on 10/29/2009 10:30:00 AM For wk10/23, 2009
Prior Actual
Weekly Change 18 bcf 25 bcf

Highlights
Natural gas in storage rose 25 billion cubic feet in the Oct. 23 week.

good point on sunpower.

I might like fslr more since I know cramer will pump it to the moon again probably starting next week.

vb

I just wrote 5 contracts for Dec 8 @ 2.4. It's not bad to pay 0.1 premium for 7 weeks.

NYUGrad,

Even my Buy & Hold friends are not believing the "official" numbers anymore. This leads me to wonder is all of this yo-yo action simply the fund managers playing musical chairs with each other?

Whatever the game I think the massive loss of CNBC viewers tells the lack of belief among the masses.

However, with Obama's administration "the show must go on." Post congressional elections it will be interesting to see if we get some kind of change to believe in. (Not what he advertised, but perhaps a more realistic one.)

i tried to game gas, but theres soooo much of it - its being discovered every other week - they are almost out of space to store it, and The President hasn't even said the words "natural gas". i perfer the api & doe weekly inventories on oil - i play it through the uco or sco - i just get a better read on the demand side. as a lottery ticket, however, a longer term view, its obviously the best most easily available bridge fuel til we can really tap the sun,wind,water- imho

I always check these 2 charts EOD. I also added Colin Twiggs comments as a reminder.

$INDU / $USD / EUR: http://tinyurl.com/yju6453

$Silver: http://tinyurl.com/ykvgjuf
~~~~~~~~
On this one, I been short: PCLN http://tinyurl.com/yj3qgkf

Posted last night ( from Fleckenstein Capital )... just click on ' blog ' at top of page... the ' real ' numbers on home sales... http://mhanson.com/

It has been said that you at CTA do not have any agency problems like HB&B...with that kind of clean reporting, you might make a name for yourself...a good name that is! (other than someone like conflicted wallstreet)

Thanks to all for the shoulders to cry on and suggestions. Its not the how much I lost, which was only 1/4% of worth, yesterday, but that I was beaten so badly, with them running those same things I sold to the moon again this am.

They see me coming, I'm afraid. I'd be a lot better creating systems and programming for a living, but realistically, it wouldn't be easy to go back into it, as nobody wants someone that ran their own business for 25 or 30 years.

My only saving grace is that I have such a high percentage in metal.

My problem is that after last year I have no faith whatsoever in any company, or the money we measure them by.

Maybe the real problem is that I really hate being a loser. I had the buy right except that last 3% downleg, and you know they wouldn't have given me any shares down there anyway.

I think I'll just give up for the rest of the year. I keep telling myself that and then try again anyway thinking I have found a way to avoid my previous mistakes, and every time they take it a few percent lower to shake me out, and then run it up within a day.

spot price up 10$ in an hour

Dollar retraces, equities surge, gold jumps. Oversimplified I am sure. But I never would have seen it if not for this blog. Thank you Bill for connecting the dots.

ALOHA !!

Bill posted - "Unfortunately, we can expect same old, same old, which is such a disappointment when Americans had voted for change."

The CHANGE 99% of Americans keep voting for is a "painless life"! All we ever vote for are guarantees that the US government will do everything in its power to make us happy about being Americans and living and working in America. Otherwise Mexicans and Canadians would be caught in a stampede of angry and disenchanted American voters ... "free lunch" refugees!

There is this resounding call by many, many pundits that the US Dollar must rally, even though it is still way off its prior lows at 72.

Simply put from a political perspective more Americans who vote with conviction have their futures tied to either the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX not the USDX and FX markets. It seems that a smart politically minded President who would like a second term would direct his energies to keep those 401k markets going and not the FX ones. Look at the PRICE FIXING that is going on in the real estate market(home buyers credit). All Americans with any kind of "means" depend on the US stock markets and the US real estate market to go up not down. Down is political suicide across the board, from retiring baby boomers to unions (think in terms of union member pension plans) and CEO bonuses. The Republicans certainly did not benefit from a crashing stock market in 2008. I think Obama understands this dynamic.

Certainly the US government did not get as BIG as it is by using "deflationary monetary policy"!! Not to mention US export markets benefit from a weaker US Dollar.

That leaves other export countries and their fiat currencies and USDX bulls sitting on the other side of the USDX trade. Hummmm??

A quote comes to mind back in 1971 attributed to the US Treasury Sec. John Connally. On taking the treasury post, Connally famously told a delegation of Europeans worried about exchange rate fluctuations that the American dollar "is our currency, but your problem." I believe America and its central bank, the World Reserve Currency, still operates under that mantra! Certainly looking at a Denny's menu from 1960 would confirm that as fact ...

cheapy-

It's better to be a fool in the eyes of HB&B, than to be cast into hell along with them.

I really mean that.

You know how many times I've been FAZzed or FASsed or TYPped, in public, on this blog? I just (have to) let it go. I'm proud to be fighting the tape alongside you, man!

ALOHA !!

Last night on the ASX I bought more Silver Lakes Resources-SLR and Straits Resources-SRL ... The ASX tanked down some 100 points or so, a big move down for the ASX.

My goal was to buy more SLR shares at share prices below the last $18MIL AUD PP(Private Placement) where Sprott Assets moved up past a 10% from a 7% position buying in at $0.79AUD per share. I bought 20,000 more shares at $0.75 and $0.78, average $0.76AUD.

SRL I bought 5,000 shares at $1.53AUD.

I try to buy the ASX when the USDX is up ...

Unfortunately I have not recently heard on T.V. or radio any discussion of Glass- Steagall . If it were reinstated, I believe that would not only begin to reform banking, it would a great encouragement rebuilding of our economy. Bob.

Do not EVER measure yourself againt the Liars, Cheats, Thieves and Manipulators that control the ' Markets ' or Financial Networks... The market was created by these types of people and will always be controled by these people... Remember, they cannot benefit without other peoples money being ' invested '... It was created as a scam, and always will be a scam...

Hi Grym, thanks for this.

taking my profits and soon to buy more SPXU/QID 2010 calls.

Show me 10k dow again please.

Number2

I'm thinking it's early, especially based on where the market is now, and the overall market action the past several days. I would think odds are you'll get a better entry price if you're thinking of holding long. Solar and other alt energy will have their day eventually. Last time I looked at FSLR I figured I had better get a better grasp on film vs other tech before investing long term. Does anyone know of a good recent source? I'm thinking there will be a lot of losers and a few big winners.

Sold a FSLR 115 Jan put. If I end up with it, I'll get it at a $7.50 discount.

TOF... superimpose HIG's daily chart on the market's, you'll see total similarity. It simply goes up and down with market.

Unless some material event happens that decouples them, it will continue doing so. Thus your idea of it being $40 stock will come to fruition if market makes proportional move up. If you have a read on what market as a whole is going to do from here, simply extend it on HIG.

IMO, we are having that same bounce I talked about yesterday, on decreasing volume:
Market Internals update at 12:00pmET
- NYSE volume 545M shares, about 12% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 5.7:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.02B shares, about 1% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.3:1.
- VIX index -8.5% to just over 25.50

This bounce is just that - bounce.

Number2son
I see by the time I commented, Bill had already made some good points re FSLR. I'll try to dig up what I can on the technology side.

"I have never been a gold bug. It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its' time and place. And now is that time. The economic and political comparisons to the late 1970's are too numerous to ignore. And, as such, gold is at the center of our thinking as a store of value during a period of potentially large and persistent global portfolio shifts. The temptation to directly, or indirectly, monetize rising and persistent fiscal deficits globally means gold could have a bid for the foreseeable future."
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21753600/Tudor-Third-Qua...

Based on the length of your discussion thread, you are not the first to feel this way. I’m impressed with your willingness to throw it out on the table and talk about it. It sounds like you’re past the first three stages of grief (Denial, Anger, and Bargaining), and settling into the fourth (Depression). Let me offer you some ideas that I hope will help you into the final stage (Acceptance) and beyond.

1) I’m like you with a computer science background. My understanding is that men from technical/analytical/engineering careers are the absolute worst traders. I think the combination of needing to be right, persistence/stubbornness, and lots of testosterone can be financially fatal. You and I need to either develop coping mechanisms or do something else.

2) Forget all your indicators, chart patterns, envelopes, etc. Take some time to just watch price. Just price. Watch it unfold. Watch it in different time frames. Where are the buyers? Where are the sellers? What behavior do you see repeated over and over? Now you’ve found YOUR edge, not someone else’s.

3) Try studying Point & Figure charts to see supply and demand (support and resistance). P&F removes the time factor and it’s related distortion.

4) Learn to think in probabilities, not absolutes. Take the time to determine the R-Value of the setups that you see. Then you’ll have the confidence to either wait for your target or take your stop. (check out Van Tharp)

5) Set aside X dollars and X months for your education/rehab. Trade 1 share at a time for any setup you enter. You won’t make any money, but you won’t lose any while you discover what works for you. Once you know the probabilities of your setup(s) based on a sample of 100 trades, you can have the confidence to scale up.

6) Less is more. Find just a couple setups that work for you and ignore everything else. Wait for your high probability trade. Everything else is low probability.

7) I think I’ve got more books on trading than Barnes & Noble. The approach that works for me is best described by Stan Weinstein or Brian Shannon. Same ideas, just different time frames.

8) Check out the ideas of Sam Seiden on objective supply and demand. http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20091027/fea...

9) Finally, you have to check out Jason Zweig’s “Your Money & Your Brain”, if only to see the comparative brain scans of a cocaine addict and a trader. My takeaway was that I need to make my decisions ahead of time on direction, setup, entry, target, stop, and exit plan. For me, changing any of those during a trade triggers a brain hijacking where my amygdala takes over by using drugs and force. And it usually doesn’t end well.

Best of luck to you.

It hasn't been able to get above yesterday's high and has acted weak over the past 2 weeks. my stop is at 178.50

Thanks, Grym,

I'll see if I can find a way to watch it. Maybe the wisdom of the ages will give me the strength to stay with my convictions.

I have now built one heck of a trading system (18 screens & 4 fast computers), and seem to be able to scalp for dairy queen dollars, but can't seem to see anything cheap enough to buy, and maybe its because there isn't much that really is...

I always did my best buying stuff that was beaten to a pulp, but it was because I found a way to believe in the value of those companies, and the potential for them to rebound as a result. If I don't really, really believe, I get shaken out too low and too easily.

no worries. Just plan your positions before you make them, for all outcomes. Like Vadym says, its all about preparation "if then" scenarios.

This way after you have entered a position, you have both outcomes on paper, with instructions on what to do for each. This way, even if you are wrong, you will be less emotional.

TOF - i appreciate your bringing HIG to the board a couple days ago.

I looked at the chart yesterday and saw it sitting on support, and noticed it did not have another push down as the market made two more pushes down at the EOD, so I bought a handful of calls at the close.

I just sold those for a nice 60% gain.
That's just too much profit to ignore in a market that can turn on a dime...
I'm being very careful to book profits and not whine about losing out additional gains.

I also sold 90% of my puts yesterday at the close.....the selling was on such high volume, and four down days are about all that this ecstatically joyful market can handle....I did NOT expect this kind of bounce in one day, I thought it would take at least 2-3 days to get the ES back to resistance at 1062.

The real question is when to start repurchasing those puts.
So far the beasts that I've been shorting are CAR, TOL, BAC and YHOO.....three out of four did well, with YHOO holding up well yesterday (bailed on those for a small loss), and wouldn't you know it, it shows weakness today.

Again, thanks for the HIG ....

Cheers

So many similarities... Please, anyone I didn't specifically respond to (LOL, especially Bill), realize that I have reread all of today 2 or 3 times, but don't want to fill Bill's blog with my failings. I think I need to go back and rethink a lot. I always seem to be trying to go the wrong way, and am as good at picking pretty close to a bottom as anyone, but need to avoid the panic and run exit somehow, because 9 out of 10 of those would have been huge gainers had I hung in there and sold on the basis of a chart roll over on a larger time scale. So many things. At least I'm not losing $50 to $100k on bad days anymore. I'm bright enuf that I'll figure some way to do ok, and appreciate all the ideas, suggestions, support and input. Its just not easy going completely against ones basic instincts. LOL, maybe I need a cattle prod to zap me everytime I buy or sell when my charts say its dumb.

Sold (4) Jan 50 puts on AEM @2.25.

Sold EUO on open, fearful of $ collapse.

1) This is how you trade this market. Buy the dips on any pull back in any asset, keep a tight stop loss, and run like Hell if it get’s triggered. No doubling up or leaning in. There is only one problem with this strategy. This is how the entire rest of the world is trading! So after the first couple of mouse clicks to the downside, the markets will seize up, as they did last year. Anyone with a position larger than the change under your living room sofa cushions won’t be able to get out. Portfolio managers will helplessly watch as their positions get marked down with no trade...

http://blog.madhedgefundtrader.com/

Market Internals update at 3:30pmET
- NYSE volume 1.03B shares, about 17% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 8.1:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.89B shares, about 2% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.1:1.
- VIX index -11% to just below 25.00

Compare it to yesterday at the same time:

- NYSE volume 1.25B shares, about 42% above its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 10.9:1.
- NASDAQ volume 2.29B shares, about 21% above its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 5.1:1.
- VIX index +9% to just over 27.00

No comments needed I suppose.

duplicate

Only if you refuse to trade.

103 break is long signal on double bottom confirmation.
107 line break is clean long signal, C&H breakout.
Double top at 110 is clear exit signal, with a few various short triggers on the way down.

A lot of things happened during this month. It's not like we decide it wasn't worth leaving the bed in the morning only because we find themselves back in it in the evening, right? :)

Awww, come on... you know what I refer to :)

Yesterday's scenario contained bounce within nearest 2-3 days as a next step. Today is exactly this, and main question should be: just a bounce, then continuation of downtrend according to scenario, or return to the high and break for further uptrend? Volume comparison so far is fully in tune with bounce scenario as volume obviously decreases on a green day - fits perfectly into whole "topping out, reversing, downtrending for a while" scenario described a week or so ago.

You just like to make me type :)

"A lot of things happened during this month. It's not like we decide it wasn't worth leaving the bed in the morning only because we find themselves back in it in the evening, right? :)"

If I were a young man, I would respond: "It depends on who is your bed mate! :)"

As to day trading, been there, done that. My way to make money may be slower, but I can get up and go to the bathroom when I want to - and for an old man like me - that's important.

Good luck!
spot

"The last POMO is now history, with $1.936 billion prudently injected by the Fed to liquefy the market and make sure that the big GDP surprise beat (thank you Goldman) cements the President's efforts to pronounce on national TV that the recession is over later today (whether consumers are expected to max out their credit cards in order to be eligible to vote in the next presidential elections is as of yet unknown)."

"The 50%+ purchaser of Treasuries in Q2 is now out of the picture, and even as primary dealers are all happy for the time being, the question of whether or not China, Japan and the UK will step up and fill the void left by the Fed's departure is a very critical one."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/last-pomo-purchas...

Vad, certainly I like to make you type - after all, how can you make a spelling mistake if you aren't typing??

But seriously, the price movement today was a little deceptive for me - it closed above yesterday's open. I saw that the volume was less, but if you look at the rally that started Oct 1, it too had a lower volume on each of the 6 days of the rally, than the three down days that preceded it.

Certainly the buck gave back everything it gained yesterday and added some more on for good measure, perhaps that gave some additional thrust to the rebound.

Well thanks for the typing. I'm trying to figure out the puzzle you laid out: just a rebound followed by a continuation, or a rebound heading for new highs.

I know! I'll go watch some CNBC, they're sure to have the right answer for me. :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

Take it for what it's worth.

FD:
I have a November call/put straddle on AIG heading into earnings, which I think will make this very volatile...given the negative sentiment surrounding this name and that insurers are all beating estimates pretty handily, I'm assuming it will be volatile to the upside.

Ok, here's the fundamental situation as I see it.

Government:
* fed spending up, income down -> debt continues up
* State spending down, tax revenues down; deficit problems loom
GDP:
* overall up +3.5%:
- +1.6 from motor vehicle production
- +0.9 from inventory increases
* personal income, disposable income both down
* personal spending up (i.e. savings down)
Economy:
* consumer sentiment down
* retail sales up
* job losses continue apace
* winter home selling season is upon us
* large shadow inventory of homes
* HAMP impact is limited, except as a temporary foreclosure moratorium
* oil is at $80, a tax on consumers
* consumer credit continues to shrink
* CRE problems loom
* biggest impact from stimulus was last quarter (Q3 09)

Interventions:
* home buyer bribes extended
* unemployment payments extended
* $300B treasury purchases terminated (today)
* $1.2T agency purchase program continues
* fannie, freddie, and FHA most of the mortgage market

lowell -

"...even more crooked game when governments can arbitrarily change the rules."

Govts make the rules so expect them to arbitrarily change them relative to relations with other nations. The G8 was just disolved and will only convene as the G20. The latest G20 plan appears to include the removal of the $USD as the global reserve currency. Thus, the large spread of WTI to Brent is used as an excuse to trade oil out of the London exchange while OPEC countries work out the details of its new currency trade. News is popping up all over regarding major commodity trade in other currencies like this one I came across today regarding direct Yuan swaps with contiguous nations:

http://www.dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00721

Or this one about Turkey trading with Iran and China

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2009/10/another-co...

The U.S. Congress (through the Fed) is allowing this to happen by recklessly devaluing the buck and socializing industry. Time to invest out of the dollar. Derivatives are only one of the weapons of dollar destruction.

Cheers.

http://tinyurl.com/yz24zm7

Turley is six feet five. He is thirty-four years old, with a square jaw and blue eyes. For nine years, before he retired, in 2007, he was an offensive lineman in the National Football League. He knew all the stories about former football players. Mike Webster, the longtime Pittsburgh Steeler and one of the greatest players in N.F.L. history, ended his life a recluse, sleeping on the floor of the Pittsburgh Amtrak station. Another former Pittsburgh Steeler, Terry Long, drifted into chaos and killed himself four years ago by drinking antifreeze. Andre Waters, a former defensive back for the Philadelphia Eagles, sank into depression and pleaded with his girlfriend—“I need help, somebody help me”—before shooting himself in the head. There were men with aching knees and backs and hands, from all those years of playing football. But their real problem was with their heads, the one part of their body that got hit over and over again.

Vad said..." main question should be: just a bounce, then continuation of downtrend according to scenario, or return to the high and break for further uptrend?"

I say just a bounce because $SPX hit a roof at the 30 day SMA today after falling through same two days ago and crashing the roof of EMA 50 yesterday.

Just my layout of the obstacle course. The dead cat may be stuck to the roof now but not for long.

I can only seem to view the first page of the report. Is the whole briefing available in a PDF format? TIA

Bought a few shares after hours at $36.35 for a trade...I think sentiment could change on this name...

http://www.businessinsider.com/galleon-paid-banker...

The latest development in the Galleon story makes Wall Street banks
, like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS), look pretty bad.

Although bank policies often prohibit employees from divulging specific information about orders, executives who dealt with Galleon said it regularly received “colour” on market developments, frequently delivered in Wall Street slang. One example would be traders discussing a “page one seller” of shares – a reference to the first page of the Bloomberg list of top holders of listed companies.

One executive who dealt with Galleon said: “They wanted anything the public did not have. They got various pieces and put them together and that was their edge.” A former Goldman executive who provided services to funds including Galleon said: “They were tough and aggressive. They cared about short-term returns and cared a lot about the impact of their trading and the costs. They expected a lot of market information.”

Market “colour” has not usually figured in insider-trading enforcement. Prosecutions – including the charges in the Galleon case – have focused on leaked corporate information.

lessmore,
the norweigans raised their rates yesterday as well - the world has grown up in the last 20 years - they want american products and services, so they can study them, and knock em off cheaper - its no different than when the soviets copied our jet fighter designs

Indeed Kaimu, why do we need banks?

Citibank is borrowing money at 0% from the Fed (and depositors), and charging consumers 30%. Cut out the middleman, offer a government sponsored card with the rate set at T-bill + 5%, and be done with it.

We can call it the "affordable consumption program" - just like affordable housing.

Student loans, home loans, credit cards - it's not a complicated business. Why are we sending all this money to the bankers in the first place? And their products have so many gotcha fees - over the limit fees, returned check fees, use-another-bank's-ATM fees, use-the-ATM fees, the mind boggles.

How about free checking, free ATM use, low interest rate consumer loans - really, if we're gonna have a socialized banking system, why not do it with a narrower spread - without making all those bankers so rich, and the taxpayers so poor?

Could it actually be worse than 30% interest rates on a credit card? A $30 per-item NSF fee? I think even the post office would do a better job.

How about banking with "a government option?" HA!

Wow. Absolutely appalling. But apparently doesn't stop us from flying their flag at the white house or turning the empire state building red and yellow...

KC

KC- Yes.

In all fairness, the US has its share of Superfund sites, and there are locations which in the early late 1800s/early 1900s probably resembled the ones in present-day China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valley_of_the_Drums

It all really boils down to greed, doesn't it? Responsible management of this stuff costs lots of money. Much easier to just dump it... The only place I could find without a superfund site on the map was North Dakota... Very sad.

Ike,
Thanks for the info on the Norwegians.

"...they want american products and services, so they can study them, and knock em off cheaper..."

They could make cheap knock offs of our crooked financial products and peddle cheaper worthless security backed debt.

I can't see any advantage to cheap knock offs of our military hardware. The better stuff we use and lot of the stuff we allegedly sell we actually pay for ourselves via aid packages.

We don't make much else.

by Paul Jones ( from Fleckenstein Capital, Oct 29, 09' )....http://www.scribd.com/doc/21753600/Tudor-Third-Quarter-Letter

Bank Nova Scotia (BNS) is the first bank in Canada to sell gold online and it plans to roll out globally.

Finally, a progressive thinking bank. I like the concept.

What do y'all think?

http://www.scotiamocatta.com/news/eStore_Press_Rel...

http://www.scotiamocatta.com/

Here's the direct PDF link to the Boeing report: http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/story...

If you click on the image of the first page, it just brings you to the image (which is dumb, I admit). You have to go to the post by clicking on the title or "Read more" at the bottom, and then you'll see the PDF attached at the end of the post.

ike,

Last week, the House Financial Services Committee passed H.R. 3126, the "Consumer Financial Protection Agency Act of 2009" including an amendment to repeal HVCC, the Home Valuation Code of Conduct, or as we call it, the "Havoc Rule". I've been lamenting various injustices to Dr. Strangelove, a recovering real estate developer with deep banker pockets in his past aparently. (We beg to differ on several points.)

This bill also contains the First Time Buyer Tax Credit extension and provisions to assist repeat home buyers and small businesses with tax breaks. All great ideas. But as measures, resolutions and bills go, it will be very crucial what, if any substance of this bill survives. We have a Congress and an Administration intent on self regulation by the big banks while penalizing solo-preneurs. '

We are particularly concerned that FHA is supposed to adopt HVCC in January 2010. Currently, FHA certified appraisers may be hired directly. Since the adoption of the HVCC, we have witnessed delays while extra paperwork and reviews fly back and forth via a third party mechanism; the loss of fees to middlemen of Appraisal Management Companies, and appraisers from outside our area delivering low-ball valuations.

I know this sounds like sour grapes. But the effects speak for themselves:

"In a recent Internet poll, real estate industry professionals were asked to indicate the value that was generated by their last HVCC appraisal relative to the sales contract price that the seller and buyer had agreed upon. With 57.7% of the sales values being lowered by more than 3% the results below highlight how dramatically HVCC is artificially deflating the value and equity of every home in America." www.thinkbigworksmall.com

Please call, email or deluge your Congress Persons www.congress.org (great site to find the culprits) and ask them to support this legislation.

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/10/21/lend-...

Housing Wire has reported that Michael Ashely began working at Liberty Mortgage Banking owned by his father, then another family mortgage company where he falsified mortgages, lost his license, was barred from practice, and got reprimanded but was never jailed. He immediately formed a consulting firm and got back to work as CFO and president of the mortgage company who fired him for fraud. He then re-opened Lend America where he masterminded a team of loan officers to makeup their own rules for FHA loans and charged 10X normal fees. He was crafty enough to cover the defaults of his HUD loans for the 2 year monitoring period. He made big money on fee violations and was convicted of many fraudulent loans. He was tried, convicted, and rehired by the companies where he was found abusing virtually every existing mortgage law. What's stopping him? Not his banking cronies. They just keep tapping his skills.

loannetter - while I realize its good for your industry to bribe people to buy houses, as a renter, I find it appalling that I am asked to pay for it. Honestly, I have no interest in artificially raising the prices of homes, or subsidizing the down payments people can make, or spending any government money spurring or stimulating or driving home sales.

You may think I'm some sort of wild-eyed revolutionary, but I'm of the opinion an actual free market should decide how much homes are worth, with no subsidies on either side. Crazy idea I know, but perhaps we should try it and see how it works out? I hear we used to have one of these, a long time ago, back before Congress decided they wanted to help make homes more "affordable." Rumor has it, home prices actually were pretty affordable way back then.

All these "programs" (including the home mortgage interest deduction) results in more expensive homes, which means people have bigger debts to pay off, resulting in a higher flow of interest payments to our friends, the bankers. Isn't it interesting that when Congress acts to make homes affordable, the bankers end up as the real winners?

And now they're doing it again?

Sorry, I'm not in favor. But I'll bet you picked that up from the tone of my posting. Not directed at you - at the concept of spending my tax money to make homes more expensive for buyers everywhere, and to increase cash flows to the banks.

And I guess I'm pretty angry about it too.

No offense taken Davefairtex. You might be interested to know that the inflated home prices in our area are so out of kilter with what a two wage earner family can afford that you would feel better seeing a couple of teachers or EMT's finally afford a home for their family with these incentives. Our area is a target for USDA 102% loans for modest earners also. Would you rather see your Goldman Sachs or GMAC executive feed directly from the public trough or a firefighter? Oh right you make money off of them. Someday when you look up at an EMT helicopter pilot risking his life to fly you out of an avalanche or forest fire just remember he might have gotten our help to buy his first home. The abuses of our corporate thieves far surpass the First Time Buyer Tax credit. BTW they have to have sufficient tax burden to qualify. You GS executive has figured out how to avoid paying any taxes or certainly less than you and I. Making homes accessible and helping more Americans have a shot at building equity is the goal. People build better communities when they have skin in the game. And for the record We are not seeing higher prices as a result. Most first time buyers we see are soaking up the REO homes already at rock bottom AND we are pressuring for seller contributions to help make them livable.

Thanks for posting this, baz22. I found it one of the most well-reasoned and informative things I've read recently. It's also nice to have a more long-term perspective as well as a perspective on global factors that factor into the price of gold.

Terrible!

With only 1% or less of US imports inspected is it any wonder we have bought tainted food and toys with lead. So much for cheaper foreign consumer goods.

As my dad always said, "You get what you pay for."

davefairtex,

I appreciate the summaries. Since I am a longer term trader they give some valuable insights.

The present market highs are, IMO, simply politically manufactured baloney. markets and economics can remain disconnected for a while and rising only hot air, but fundamentals eventually matter.

As we saw with tech and housing it is simply a matter of time until "the cows come home to roost":-)

Attached is a simple and short term illustration. Before I left on a brief trip I sold nearly all stocks most of which I owned in the Vanguard Total Stock ETF (VTI). Here is a two week picture of several thousand stocks.

What saddened me was the terrible human cost shown by those pictures. Yes the pollution is terrible, but that can be remedied. The damage to all those innocent people is forever. Thankfully, there are those poor folks who are adopting those unwanted defective children--heroism in the midst of misery.

Hi Bill,

I had the time to read the report in it's entirety and thank you for such a well-developed collaboration. If the 787 issue is going to be a weight problem then BA should be starting with the seats. Not only are they bulky and ugly, the "girdle" appears to be a waste of material and somewhat restrictive in the under-arm area.... so scrap them! They should be thinking of a seating "bladder" that is presented over an ergonomically designed skeletal structure that the passenger inflates ( or deflates ) to suit their personal position of comfort. It would weigh much less than these heavy legacy designs that have been given a superficial face-lift. As far as the numbers go, it looks to me like the large charges for development are setting up very conservative guidance to be followed by blowout numbers next year when they get the 787 airborne and start deliveries. JMHO.