Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009

read this article in http://tinyurl.com/y98mo2e

To add to Bill's missive, I see from the MSM that they are softening us up for military action in Afghanistan and Iran. The leaking of the McChrystal report was a ruse to give Obama deniability to his base.
Military action or the threat of military action and the resulting industrial complex expansion has always been a component of recessions/depressions and I expect this time will be no different.
I combine this with Krugman's call for even more stimulus spending, which he says cannot be called stimulus or it isn't politically feasable, and military response is a foregone conclusion to generate "stimulus".
Thus the $USD is done like dinner, except for that small bit if time where deployment/action drives $USD up on flight to safety (traditional) and then the decline continues in earnest due to spending run amok.
So I expect a big W recovery if there is any recovery but this spike up is due to the timeframe wall street sees before deploying 40,000 more troops to the middle east and the increased spending that entails. Think back to Iraq and how PM's spiked up at each deployment/threat and then they fell back on the flight to safety only to regain even higher levels.
Forget Michael Moore, he can't help you make money and it's wasting time to discuss it.
In short I think Bill is right, but there is always more involved.

?

On my chart I saw the USD test 75.70 at about 3am for exactly one tick. It might be a bad tick - the rest of them around that time were 76.05. Now its up around 76.20.

SYDNEY -- "The number of employed Australians surged in September, defying economists' expectations of a fall and ramping up expectations of more central bank interest rate increases this year."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125496530164472379...

(prior disclosure long)

Trying to catch the middle of (any) intraday up/down-drafts will be about it for me today.

Nice video. Moore rocks. He teaches that kid a few things about the way America really used to be and what it has become.

Hola !

............ oversold, look at TSX's opening lines : "winners"

.............pure BS

Not all at once. Choosing sds and qid. Spec portion of my stash. 2010 exipry.

Alcoa is not going to save the financial mess.

Bill,

Sadly, I am no longer surprised. I began to realize with the advent of the Globalization Mantra (as if Columbus wasn't on a global business trip) that the US was being sold to the lowest bidder. In my business just a few years later "inverse auctions" became quite common when bidding for advertising and printing accounts.

This world wide garage sale will continue, since Congress and CEOs have only one thing in mind, "What's in it for me in the short term?"

Globalization has replaced national loyalty and concerns for employees here and I suspect this is true in most other countries in varying degrees and growing.

These guys have put Hitler and other despots in the amateur class when it comes to world domination.

...

Gap n trap followed by rebounding dollar... This a trap? Bill's end of party he was expecting yesterday?

once over $15

TXIC is another being run now.

hola 2nd, SLW is at the peak for 12 months TSX, SLW:T

love to hear your reasoning, a good day trade ?
tx

"No countries have devalued their way into prosperity, while many—Hong Kong, China, Australia today—have used stable money to invite capital and jobs."

http://tiny.cc/78aGJ

Who is really at peril here? I think it is not the nation. I do think it is the nation's bankers, investment bankers and speculators.

A lower dollar should bring jobs back (good for workers) and make it easier for the nation to pay off debt (good for taxpayers). The bankers, investment bankers and speculators will have conflict with a government that imposes restrictions (e.g. high stock transfer tax, a ban on dollar shorts) on their ability to use capital in opposition to the government's interests.

How about the Disney Index to measure inflation?

Disney World opened Oct 1971 - Cost for a family of 4 was $9.00 total
At 3% inflation in 2007 the cost should have been $46.99 total
Instead it was $262.00 total or an inflation rate of roughly 10.1%
So much for an average of 3% inflation....not even close.

Same story with sporting events, concerts etc.

Was at my favorite drive-in restruant last night... studied the prices of a menu from 1966.... The ' jumbo cheeseburger ' and large fish sandwich were each 50 cents... Now ? ... $ 4.85 each... and some members of Congress were complaining about raising the minimum wage increase ?

INFY (a Cara 100 stock) reports tomorrow and so far multiple articles in Indian press calling for better results in us$ and a decent guidance (from cautious past few Qs).

It is indeed showing high RSI levels (54.05, 79.05, 72), but I think it has decent upside in the near term if they guide decent. At least 5% to the 52-week high it set a few days ago. The chart is also nice
http://finviz.com/publish/100809/INFYc1dl1124.png

Quite a drop from the 0.35 a few days ago.

Pall Mall can't Spall either

Ron

first, off this topic, sorry for the mistake on .04 yesterday. google still has that up there, but i checked elsewhere and see it at .06. the difference is irrelevant to the logic of my previous post on interest rates, but its never good to have faulty stats.

---

as for simple math, try this:

say i have an apple orchard and i produce 10 units of apples in year 1 during which time the price of apples is $1 per unit. from a GDP perspective, my orchard does $10.

the following year, i produce 40 units of apples, but, due to a freak accident involving lead-contaminated apples from another country, the price of apples is only $0.25 per unit. my GDP factor is still $10.

did my orchard have GROWTH?

This is one of the best 5.51 minutes of CNBC I have ever seen!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1288212347&p...

It get's better as it goes along and the last 45 seconds is precious. Even Kudlow is on fire with his questions and comments plus pay close attention to Mr. Reinhart's last statement.

In response to Craig's claim that "A lower dollar doesn't do what you say,"

Whether inflation is OK for me or my children is not relevant. A lot of things are not OK but they do not place the nation in peril. And that is the issue here.

There is some peril from a cheaper dollar, but it does not imperil the nation although the interests of certain groups are at peril.

The nation will be in peril if too many people lose jobs, become destitute and are compelled to resort to theft and violence to survive. The nation will be in peril if we again have race riots as we did in the 1960s. The nation will be in peril if bankers are permitted to continue looting the nation's wealth and place ever greater burdens on the underclasses. But a cheaper dollar that will bring back some lost production and jobs does not imperil the nation. A cheaper dollar that will make it easier for US residents to pay taxes and debt does not imperil the nation. And finally, a cheaper dollar that will reduce the value of my savings, while not OK, does not imperil the nation.

I'll answer like I do to my wife when she tells me those shoes are on sale.

If you can't afford them then it doesn't matter if they're on sale.

to add, taking on more debt, which is what a lowered dollar represents, puts the nation in peril just like it does your own household, especially if it represents, like it does on all scales, that you CANNOT pay that debt.
It is a permanent lowering of living standard, which DOES place the nation at risk. At some point the nation goes BK and cannot defend itself and people end up in the streets anyway.

3 bp tail to the 1pm level at the auction. USD seems to be holding support from the 9/23/09 low (for now).

This is worth a read.

"The Weak Dollar Threat to Prosperity"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487032...

One thing I am sensitive to, is if the dollar decline gets just a little more unruly, would the Fed actually hike rates to slow it down?

Submitted by kaimu (1063 comments) on Thu, 10/08/2009 - 10:05 #48397
ALOHA!!

Now I love this one ... Think how this gold vault in Zurich has been "fortified" to keep the gold thieves roaming the streets of Zurich out of the SGOL gold vault yet the biggest gold thief in history is already "fortified inside" the vault.

Copied from the SGOL website ...
"ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares are backed by physical gold bullion held by J.P. Morgan in fortified vaults in Zurich, Switzerland. The Shares represent a direct interest in physical gold bullion owned by the Trust. Shares can only be issued when bullion is delivered into the Trust account at the Custodian's vault, which is independently inspected twice a year by Inspectorate International. An appointed Trustee must approve all deposits and withdrawals of Bullion held by the Custodian.

Does it matter who the inspector is when JP MORGAN guards the vault?

Even the Swiss public seems to believe JP MORGAN can be trusted. If only they had known the details of the Blanchard Coin lawsuit ... JP MORGAN in recorded court documents is an agent for the US FED and therefore "immune" from prosecution. Would the SNB stoop that low?

In other words this SGOL ETF has hired the World's largest GOLD SHORT on the COMEX to guard their gold. I wonder if COMEX short deliveries can be covered by the SGOL bullion vault ... Hummmmm??? I predict these ETF vaults owned by JP MORGAN and funded by unsuspecting "investors" will be put top the test.

ITS ALL WORKS ...

Now that I am free from the long-term baggage (attachment to the FCX short), I'll practice going in and out intra-day. Just shorted FCX at $74.83.

Here is another chart that I have been watching along with the LDQ chart [posted a few days ago]hoping to see an advance warning sign of trouble ahead.

http://tinyurl.com/y898nvx

More, looking at TBT

http://acrossthecurve.com/

"But a cheaper dollar that will bring back some lost production and jobs does not imperil the nation."

I think this premise is false.

A cheaper dollar increases the costs to Americans of many things priced worldwide in dollars, such as oil, and other commodities. At the same time these commodities do not rise as much in the currencies of the countries the dollar is being depreciated against. This puts the USA at a competitive disadvantage, particularly on any activity requiring energy inputs.

At the same time you postulate jobs will return. Presumably these will be jobs that require no consumption of resources, or you compound the problem. One of the reasons energy usage relative to GDP has dropped over time in the USA is that many heavy industry activities (steel mills, ship building, e.g.) have moved to the emerging economies.

What the average American will see with a depreciating dollar is rising commodity costs (and the cost of anything with commodity expense imbedded within) across the board. And when Joe Sixpack's wages haven't gone up and he can't afford gas for his new "Cash for Clunkers" car, and his house heating and cooling costs are up, and his municipal and State taxes go up to compensate for increased cost of delivery for services, then all the bad things that you associated with imperiling the nation are more likely occur.

Flipping the pancake and going long FCX at $74.94

Sometimes it helps to shrink the question down to the personal level.
Say a person or household has too much debt, too much to service. They cannot borrow more money, creditors have cut them off. They are forced to file bankruptcy and liquidate their assets, like their home they cannot pay for.
They end up on the street where they cannot defend themselves as they did in a home. They don't have health care, proper food, etc. Basic needs go unmet and they begin to deteriorate from poor health, hunger, stress, physical endangerment.
Does this not endanger them and the government that relies on them for income for the greater good? IOW, put them in peril?
Now blow this picture back up to the country size problem we are in.
It's pretty simple.

David, out of curiosity, may I ask what was the ratio of the capital you put in the trade and the amount that you made? I wonder what risk we take on with short scalps like these and whether I am a chicken compared to traders more experienced than me :-)

With the intent of covering at $74.93 or so, which was its most recent daily high.

I'm hoping to get feedback on how other people approach a trade. If I put in say $2K into a stock, it feels like a $50 gain is paltry (given that I lost $10 in fees). So the temptation is to let it ride so that the gains are larger. This rules out quick scalps and turns many a profit into losses :-)
Yet I see a lot of people reporting making 'lunch money'. How do you guys mentally approach such trades? Thanks !

selling with a market on close order. It has held its own despite the dilution discussion but it hasn't moved much and I need to free up some capital for better opportunities.

lessmore,

IMO this nation has been at peril since the idea that the service economy is as good or even better than the manufacturing economy.

A nation which has little in the way of tradeable goods is in peril.

Services are labor-lite. Services are basically limited to locale.
A system which has been 70% consumer dependent is in peril when workers earn less.

It was only the low-end jobs which were supposed to be endangered. It was the low-end jobs which enabled the African Americans to leave the south and join the middle class.

Now even the college grad is in price competition with the imported PhD.

Bill Gates has continually lobbied for increases in H1b visas to cut his employ costs.

As the dollar falls and consumers must buy foreign goods the price loses the "cheaper goods" benefit.

Look around you. Can you actually say things are better for the average American worker/consumer than forty or fifty years ago?

I remember far better times when the dollar was stronger.

Craig,

actually when we blow your model to the scale of country, it will include one more element that makes it a little more complicated and much more ominous.

Namely: our indebted person in question has a printing press in the basement. In order to pay down the debt, he goes ahead and prints new banknotes. Creditors are enraged but their hands are tied up somewhat: our hero borrowed so much that they, creditors, are reluctant to cut him off completely; his financial demise jeopardizes them all; they have little to no means to stop him from printing more since his basement also contains formidable arsenal... Yechh!

buy stop at LOD + 1/3 (10 day ATR) = 12.81.

Do your own DD.

No arguments from me Vadym!
Now imagine your neighbor has a lot of weapons and he is BK as are all your neighbors. None can buy food and all are hungry and in the streets.
Now blow that back up again. The only difference is your neighbor is unlikely to have an arsenal of nukes...but he is the little version none the less! LOL!

The ominous part is that he runs around taking everyone else's....

Hmmmm.....sounds familiar.

I guess no one wants to be lebeled a Keynesian (spending your way out of a recession), but during a "recession" or loss of purchasing power in which we have placed ourselves like sheepople (expenditures exceeding our income), keynesian theory does work...more spending will get us out of the recession.
So how can we get out of the recession given the fact we don't produce enough goods to sell.
Well, 1- the Feds can raise taxes, no that won't work because there is no one to collect it from, everybody is broke...
2- lower interest rates to stimulate business, that won't work either, because only the HB&B have the credit to do so and they only lend to each other...and
3-lastly, have the Feds print their own (new) money and spend it to stimulate the economy. It might reduce the value of the dollar in the short time, but the world still wants the dollar if not they would not be selling goods to be exchanged for dollars or buying treasuries that will be paid back in dollars.
Peter Shiff has a good commentary on "the demise of the dollar", please watch it, perhaps it will make more sense.
http://tinyurl.com/yd3jgbh
Joe

Damn, that was too fast... I guess a break below the most recent low is not such a convincing trigger for going short. Maybe I should have waited for some time to elapse and make sure that a stock is really intent on staying below its most recent low. A whole new domain for learning...

David,

Have you read Vad's books? If I was going to play that game I would definitely sign up at Vad's gig over at reality trader. I am not ready yet, maybe someday.

Claude Resources, ticker CGR, is a gold mining stock that is breaking out to the upside. Yesterday it announced that its 3rd quarter gold production was up 80% and today the stock rose above its September intraday high, and looks ready to challenge the $1 area by year end because of its expanding margins and leverage to the gold price. There is a good summary of the company's announcement at http://www.goldalert.com/gold_news.php, which has articles on Claude as well as many other good gold mining companies. I added to my position today at $0.83 and plan to add more as long as it holds support in the $0.75 region.

Craig,
I know you are not suggesting that for non payment of debts, creditors and creditor nations, individually or collectively, have the power to dispossess the US from its land and resources and reduce it to a defenseless state. They could choose to withhold the credit that the US has been using to conduct wars since the mid 1960s that have produced a lot of harm to US citizens even if US corporations have benefited. But that does not place the nation in peril unless you would contend that without the largess of our creditors the US can't provide for its self defense. Such contention would have no merit.

Therefore, your analogy to the bankrupt family has no merit.

joe_the_plumber, I am not an experienced day trader AT ALL. Today is the first day, actually, when I am practicing "trading what I see." My position size for today's trades was 500 shares, which is 10 times larger than the size I used when gradually shorting FCX on the way up (in the increments of 50 shares). The logic being that I was prepared to hold the previous shorts long-term and targeted a profit on each short of around $10 in FCX ($500 of absolute gain). Today I targeted a profit of $0.2 in FCX, which would translate into $100 of absolute gain using the position size of 500 shares.

"Welcome to the dark side!"

David- I think that's Vad's way of saying you can stop waxing on/waxing off, and start trading for real.

A penny for your thoughts on today's market and gold action so far?

[14:50] {Threei} FCX, C&H on 1 min
[14:50] let's see if we get a little consolidation
[14:50] as it stands, support is too far from 75
[14:51] maybe a little pullback from here
[14:51] then break
[14:52] good
[14:52] Long Setup: FCX 75 break if stays above 74.85
[14:52] or above 74.90 for hard core scalpers

Here you go. One more opinion on weak dollar poverty

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB200014240527487032...

Exerpt:

"If stocks double but the dollar loses half its value, who beyond Wall Street are the winners and losers? There's been a clear demonstration this decade. The S&P nearly doubled from 2003 through 2007. Those who borrowed to buy won big-time. Rich people got richer, seeing their equity bottom line double. At the same time, the dollar's value was cut nearly in half versus the euro and other stable measures. Capital fled, undercutting job growth. Rent, gasoline and food prices rose more than wages.

Equity gains provide cold comfort when currencies crash. From the euro perspective, the S&P peaked at 1700 in 2000, finally reattained 1100 in the 2007 bubble, fell below 600 in March and now stands at 700 (see nearby chart). With most of the market capitalization of U.S. stocks held by Americans, the dollar devaluation has caused a massive decline in the U.S. share of global wealth.

Measured in euros (a more stable ruler than the ever-weakening dollar), U.S. real per capita GDP is down 25% since 2000, while Germany's is up 4% and tops ours."

night all.

Don't forget capital gains taxes on those doubled market returns.....an actual loss of whatever your tax bracket is or 15%...then subtract inflated goods....and the cost of margin if any....not so good.

Who Geithner takes calls from and makes calls to.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.2...

lessmore,

The majority of individuals in the US are up to their ears in debt. More debt than they can pay. They are losing their jobs, their homes, the children's future. Their taxes are rising at the same time.

The same is true for municipalities.

The same is true for the nation.

I guess we must be using a far different definition of what it means to be in peril.

Here's one I can subscribe to...

peril |ˈperəl|

noun
serious and immediate danger : his family was in peril | a setback to the state could present a peril to the regime.

Do we need to define immediate?

AA has made losers of almost everyone who bought today and haven't sold.

And when a rally gives trapping signals I have started to notice that $DJUSPP is a leader. That's right, paper index. up 6% today. Take that GLD!

So today SPX is +8 and the USD is down 0.66%. It's a big move in the buck, for a small move in SPX. Today GLD (+1.25%), SLV (+1.46%), and USO (+2.20%) all outperformed SPX.

If I look at what's up today, its Oil & Gas, Materials, Homebuilders, and a little bit of REITs and Consumer Discretionary. Half an hour before market open, we were +10 on the SPX. Except for a few commodity-related stocks (TCK +8.5%!!) today has been flat to slightly up.

Bill keeps asking, "How long can the dollar keep going down in support of this market?" That's my question too. It seems like we keep getting less and less SPX for our dollar depreciation these days - and mostly in the commodity stocks.

A dissatisfying feature of the Madoff Ponzi, for those of us looking at it from afar, is how little we know about what Bernie did, how he did it, who he did it with and what was going through his mind.

In the case of Marc Dreier we know what happened and, thanks to Vanity Fair and 60 Minutes, we now have a view inside the man’s head.

The 60 Minutes piece is fine, but doesn’t really capture the audacity of Dreier’s scheme. Personally I enjoyed Bryan Burrough’s article much more. It concludes with the perp offering a bit of advice to young folks entering finance:

“Many people,” he observed, “are caught up in the notion that success in life is measured in professional and financial achievements and material acquisitions, and it’s hard to step back from that and see the fallacy. You have to try and measure your life by the moments in your day. I see people my children’s age first coming into finance, the working world, as having to make basic choices about how to define happiness and success. Obviously, I made the wrong choices."

“But they don’t have to.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/

http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2009/1...

College tuition and health care both started to rise faster then overall inflation when the government got involved.

When the government started to back college loans for companies like Sallie Mae, then credit and money became more widely available to many people. So instead of saving for college and working through college people could borrow money to go to college. So with the loans backed by the government, banks were more willing to give loans to risky candidates. Then with all of these extra students, universities started on a big marketing expansion phase and creating bigger campus with nicer building (lots of amenities). Essentially all the universities have been trying to one up each other on modern classrooms, dormitories, etc. There is a lot of fluff in the educational system.

Health care cost began to rise at the same time the Government created Medicare and Medicaid.

I agree with the loan part, that is true as there is a motivation for these corps to make government backed guaranteed loans that a person can't declare bankruptcy on.

Having a just out of college and back into college age daughter I take exception the the later part. The facilities (at least the two I'm familiar with) are largely unchanged from the 60's -70's. no new stuff and my daughter stayed in a dorm from the 60's. She is now attending another state college and it is also unchanged from when it was built in the 70's.
I do see a problem when it comes to athletics, especially college football.
I don't understand the emphasis there instead of on academic excellence, which IMO we should be concentrating on. I don't see Japan, China or south Korea (as examples) putting any emphasis on football or sports over academics in their universities and colleges. If only life were an athletic competition all the time I guess we would be competitive, but it's about brains, not brawn.

I'm trying to figure out how healthcare could go up in a cost controlled system like Medicare and Medicaid, as they only pay so much and it isn't what private/publically traded insurance companies pay. How would these programs drive costs higher for insurance companies and thus premiums? They are two different things. I can see some of the tests required to avoid malpractice problems contributing, but I don't see the connection of medicare/medicaid to my insurance company trying to raise my rates 40% in a year.

I think that has more to do with the CEO of my old insurance company making 500% more than the average insurance company worker and WAY more then the average worker in general. Actually it's WAY more than 500%, the average worker would need to make several million $$$ to limit the CEO to only 500%. Why do these folks think they deserve so much compared to their average employee or Doctor? Heck, if only I knew I would have busted my butt to get that job. No one I know would have bothered being a doctor or lawyer, they would have all gone for insurance co. CEO.

I chalk it up more to greed than government.

If Mr. Market was counting on Alcoholic Aluminum to get a rally party started, I can only imagine what Mr. Market is drinking...With a 12 cent dividend they yield almost as much as ING Direct. Maybe some are waiting for word of a huge bauxite discovery in Jersey!

A capital and energy intensive behemoth with a competitive disadvantage that rarely earns its cost of capital. It probably only has a few years left in the DJIA.

Sorry. I shouldn't speak ill of the dead.

Grym,
I am not in disagreement about the meaning of "peril." My point from my initial post on this topic is that although peril from a weaker dollar exists for various interests in the economy, it is not the nation that is in peril from a weaker dollar. Individuals who are in debt or losing their jobs are certainly in peril but they are not in peril from a weaker dollar. Their jobs are in peril as a result of years of outsourcing of jobs which has "sucked" jobs out of the economy. Individuals who have excessive debt burdens are in peril as a result of an economy that was allowed to become so distorted that the consumer is relied upon for 71% of GDP and the easy credit policies that were adopted to encourage consumers to incur excessive and overburdening debt to meet the 71% goal. A cheaper dollar did not cause such perils, will not add to them and should reduce them.

MoKat,

I'm in total agreement with everything you wrote.

There is something which I wonder if those who have brought us to this sad state of affairs has not taken into account that we are the most well armed citizenry in the world.

It is one thing to take away property and livelihood from a poor peasant class, but in taking it from people who once had so much more and many of whom have been trained in the military and are still holding fast to their weapons (as the Obamas pointed out "Bibles and Guns") they may get more than just shouting at town meetings.

I'm seeing an increase in violent crime here. It could spread to people who have never even considered breaking law in the past. These are increasingly troubled times. Everyone has a breaking point.

http://tinyurl.com/yav2bur

Friday.

I received this message today:

"Sears Canada call centre for catalogue orders in Regina, Sk closed on Sept. 17/09. That left 250 people out of jobs. The call centre in Belleville, On. was also closed leaving 230 people without jobs. Now when you call your order in you will be speaking to people in the Philippines. That’s right folks Sears has moved it’s call centre to the Philippines because it is cheaper.
I don’t know about you people but with the way the economy is I know I will no longer be shopping at Sears. If they can’t keep the jobs in Canada then they can move all their stores to the Philippines.

Companies in Canada has been exporting jobs to more favorable countries for several years, I don't know what caused Sears to decide to go now.

2nd_ave, thank you for taking the time to navigate me in the new (for me) world of day trading!

> (a) If you're making money, keep trading.

The real reason I stopped is because I saw FCX go into "uncharted waters" after it broke up above $75, where no technical setups were apparent to me. For all I knew, it could do any kinds of zig-zags once it stopped being constrained by the $74.50 - $75 range.

(b) It's all in your head.

I was kidding about not wanting to share with Scottrade. :) But honestly, I realized that in order to succeed in day trading, I will need to take losses often, and the commissions on those trades works greatly against me at the end of the day. Since I know that it is not easy to make money day trading (otherwise, everyone would be making money, which is impossible), I decided that a big part of my profit today was beginners luck, and so it is better to wage this battle when I have the smallest headwind (in terms of commissions costs) blowing in my face. Half of the gross profits I made today were eaten up by Scottrade commissions.

(c) Attend to work when nothing interesting is happening in the markets.

That's a funny one. :) It looks like a you have a good day job, since only a few people can do what you are suggesting.

http://bit.ly/j03Ko

NYU, the link didn't work for me, for some reason. I got the 'loading please wait msg' and that was all.

http://bit.ly/30ithp

What a marketing piece. The added paragraph from forrester has nothing to do with infosys direct but adds that extra notch of bullish euphorea:

"U.S. technology demand will begin to increase in the three months ending Dec. 31, followed by a global recovery in 2010, research firm Forrester Inc. said last month"

they sound like a fortune cookie. Where's the Chinese lesson on the back of the fortune? How to say "I don't believe you"

edit: I am Asian so please don't take my comment as racist. I am simply saying Forresters comment is so random and generic, like any fortune you get in a cookie.

Les, just curious. What was your problem with IB?
Peace

This man is very impressive. i've been reading him for a few days now. Send your sons and daughters to his classes at MIT. Check this post out. Telling it like it is, framinig it in historical context (1800's founding fathers battling trusts and banks, ) Giving some young Americans the tools to fight back.

http://baselinescenario.com/2009/09/14/where-are-w...

See his presentation to his class at http://baselinescenario.files.wordpress.com/2009/0...

One of his concluding slides:
Alternatively, Think Of It This Way
•
US has strong (non‐financial) innovative sectors, broadly defined
–
Financial sector of 1950s/1960s supported plenty of capital‐intensive breakthroughs
•
Major risk to innovation and growth always from rent‐seeking sector
–
In the US, this is now big finance
•
Either break it up, preferably sooner
–
Or face the consequences:
•
Slower growth, inflation, higher interest rates, taxes
•
International disruption and costs

You might not have Sears to shop at in the not too distant future.

Thank you, nemo, for your suggestions (about looking at the volume, stochastics, etc.)!

Photogray said: "Les, just curious. What was your problem with IB?"

No problems with IB photogray - good outfit. I have a problem with the SEC's daytrading rule. IB enforces the SEC ruling, so having been menaced with account freezing so many times the last 6 months because I push the 3 daytrade per 5 day period limit, in a pique of annoyance last night I played their bluff and had my account frozen six months, rather than take another loss by having to hold overnight. I then proceeded to the "close account" aisle...

I need daytrading experience. IB was not conducive to good strategy because of these limitations. I would hesitate in setups. Take greater losses than what I should because selling as quickly as I would like would trigger an account freeze. It was a long only account (min. 1 overnight session) which I am not comfortable with in this market. I would like to trade 5 setups a day if the setups are there, instead of 1. I can bring more money to the table but I will not do so until I have a profitable trading strategy sorted out. So I found a broker that allows me to do more for less. How frustrating it has been to catch green and then watch it slip through my fingers as I hold off selling. That period of my trading is finished.

Off to Lucca and the Tuscan countryside for two weeks tonight. Fingers crossed the market doesn't drop without me. cheers.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/repost-how-thin...

"Somewhere over the rainbow" rate hikes coming. When you won't do anything, talk about doing something.

skylane,

Interesting about Sears call centers. Yesterday our local paper announced a new business opened here. It is named as a financial center, but it is a collection agency.

Today's paper tells of another such financial center less than five miles away from the new "job opportunity" which is closing. It has taken about 15 years to realize that service jobs are not better than manufacturing.

Sears is a dead business which is slowly lying down. They began to die when Walmart became the poster boy on how to do retail. They've already done the bankruptcy/reorg bit. Spiegles, Montgomery Wards, Land's End and many smaller ones faced the same process.

I suspect the employees could see this coming for a long time. Really sad.