Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tue., Mar. 31, 2009

I happened to catch some hardball last night, by accident. Pat made the statement that Bernanke,Paulson, and GS's did not see the problems coming...how funny, yet sad! (spelling may be off)

3-30-09 at 8 pm eastern

FAS- out @ 5.25.. newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (1067 comments) on Tue, 03/31/2009 - 10:25 #19657
Mark- I took a minor loss also. Will look for re-entry.

The market is a little stronger than I expected. Lowered my FAS sell from 5.31 to 5.21 when oil turned hard south.

out at 5.33

My FAS trade review...In to early/out to early. NOT happy with myself. I showed no patience or discipline. The set up was there.
Edit: Got to run. Hopefully I don't get run over by a bus today. GL everyone.

I see GM and Ford have jumped on the Hyundai bandwagon insuring buyers for several months if they lose their job. Let's all run out and take on $35k in debt for a new car. Don't worry..be happy.. take on some more debt ..yeah.

It is amazing how desperate the lenders are to reconnect the fallen debt slaves to their obligations for autos and homes. The government has added
sales tax deductions for autos and the $8,000 tax credit for select homebuyers. These actions will just prolong the cleansing process currently taking place.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street elite along with their bought and paid for shills in Congress, are enabling a new ponzi scheme extrordinaire, on top of the previous fraud, deceit and theft which has destroyed millions of jobs and lives worldwide. They are offloading most of their toxic mortgage debt at taxpayer expense or guarantee, with money created out of thin air along with sweetheart deals for vulture hedge funds and investment banks and even rumors of Pimco offering a mutual fund for private investors to take a piece of these toxic mortgages. Truly disgusting. In Orwellian fashion, the name has now been changed to legacy assets. Now comes the call to modify other toxic debts,derivitives and CDS's on the insolvent banks ledgers with a change in FASB 187 to eliminate the mark to market model and return to the fantasy mark to model.Perhaps some change is needed here but only after complete transparency is provided. We need less opaqueness not more. The Bank of International Settlements BIS is estimating current notational derivitives of nearly $700 Trillion in the world's financial system. No amount of fiddling is going to save the system until all is clear and cleansed.

In the 70's there was a saying "Small is Beautiful" As the world has evolved in the last 40 years, our corporate institutions have grown too large and too disconnected from the people they seek to serve. The term "too big to fail" should read "to big to function". Government must be included as well.
Perhaps a solution to our demise invloves reducing the size and scope of these
institutions which are destroying the life we seek.

Exactly, if GS didn't see the problems coming why were they heavily short mortgages in the back half of 07 and why are they always on the right side of the AIG swaps.

The only reason AIG seems crucial to the system to me is to provide the backdoor conduit to funnel money to the banks. Why shouldn't pensions, bondholders, and other investors have to take losses just like me when they bet wrong? Why would it collapse the system if some people have to recognize their losses like average people? The GM bondholders seem to be able to take losses without doomsday coming so why not the rest of the Oligarchs take a haircut as well.

Too big to fail and systemic importance represent to me connected players who are supposedly too powerful to ever take a loss. I wonder if any of them have kids or grandkids. They probably don't worry about them since their kids won't have to earn a living, they'll just be able to live off their parents' thefts.

Rob.

Probably setting myself up to get FAZzed again.

I hate to say it, but when the public learns the scope of bankers exploits down the road when the depression peaks, bankers and families will have to leave the country afraid of the rioting mobs. By then, politicians will be afraid to be associated with banking, just like the modern eastern europe politicians have to hide any communist connections.

2nd - Are you triggering off XLF or FAZ itself?

That's what happens when you are told what the Fed wants you to say.
The question is...who placed Roubini's testicles in between the jaws of the FED vise, and who was threatening a clockwise rotation of the handle?

the question is if the uptick on opening was the dumb money buying on a dip or a broad based rebound from very short term oversold? If a rebound, it is weak.

I studied my charts last night and still undecided whether this is a healthy dip on a way up or a sign of topping. However, equities are tired after the moonshot up since 3/9 and negative divergence can be plainly seen on some daily charts. Some of my sentiment indicators showed topping and some not. Not sure what to expect on 4/2 either. Another moonshot and then fade the news? No clue. Maybe Vadym has an opinion? He is the master of selling on news.

Just stumbled upon this on the Zero Hedge blog.
What it describes is so blatant that I repost here in its entirety.

-----

Exclusive: AIG Was Responsible For The Banks' January & February Profitability
Posted by Tyler Durden at 6:35 PM
Zero Hedge is rarely speechless, but after receiving this email from a correlation desk trader, we simply had to hold a moment of silence for the phenomenal scam that continues unabated in the financial markets, and now has the full oversight and blessing of the U.S. government, which in turns keeps on duping U.S. taxpayers into believing everything is good.

I present the insider perspective of trader Lou (who wishes to remain anonymous) in its entirety:

"AIG-FP accumulated thousands of trades over the years, all essentially consisted of selling default protection. This was done via a number of structures with really only one criteria - rated at least AA- (if it fit these criteria all OK - as far as I could tell credit assessment was completely outsourced to the rating agencies).

Main products they took on were always levered credit risk, credit-linked notes (collateral and CDS both had to be at least AA-, no joint probability stuff) and AAA or super senior portfolio swaps. Portfolio swaps were either corporate synthetic CDO or asset backed, effectively sub-prime wraps (as per news stories regarding GS and DB).

Credit linked notes are done through single-name CDS desks and a cash desk (for the note collateral) and the portfolio swaps are done through the correlation desk. These trades were done is almost every jurisdiction - wherever AIG had an office they had IB salespeople covering them.

Correlation desks just back their risk out via the single names desks - the correlation desk manages the delta/gamma according to their correlation model. So correlation desks carry model risk but very little market risk.

I was mostly involved in the corporate synthetic CDO side.

During Jan/Feb AIG would call up and just ask for complete unwind prices from the credit desk in the relevant jurisdiction. These were not single deal unwinds as are typically more price transparent - these were whole portfolio unwinds. The size of these unwinds were enormous, the quotes I have heard were "we have never done as big or as profitable trades - ever".

As these trades are unwound, the correlation desk needs to unwind the single name risk through the single name desks - effectively the AIG-FP unwinds caused massive single name protection buying. This caused single name credit to massively underperform equities - run a chart from say last September to current of say S&P 500 and Itraxx - credit has underperformed massively. This is largely due to AIG-FP unwinds.

I can only guess/extrapolate what sort of PnL this put into the major global banks (both correlation and single names desks) during this period. Allowing for significant reserve release and trade PnL, I think for the big correlation players this could have easily been US$1-2bn per bank in this period."

For those to whom this is merely a lot of mumbo-jumbo, let me explain in layman's terms:
AIG, knowing it would need to ask for much more capital from the Treasury imminently, decided to throw in the towel, and gifted major bank counter-parties with trades which were egregiously profitable to the banks, and even more egregiously money losing to the U.S. taxpayers, who had to dump more and more cash into AIG, without having the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner disclose the real extent of this, for lack of a better word, fraudulent scam.

In simple terms think of it as an auto dealer, which knows that U.S. taxpayers will provide for an infinite amount of money to fund its ongoing sales of horrendous vehicles (think Pontiac Azteks): the company decides to sell all the cars currently in contract, to lessors at far below the amortized market value, thereby generating huge profits for these lessors, as these turn around and sell the cars at a major profit, funded exclusively by U.S. taxpayers (readers should feel free to provide more gripping allegories).

What this all means is that the statements by major banks, i.e. JPM, Citi, and BofA, regarding abnormal profitability in January and February were true, however these profits were a) one-time in nature due to wholesale unwinds of AIG portfolios, b) entirely at the expense of AIG, and thus taxpayers, c) executed with Tim Geithner's (and thus the administration's) full knowledge and intent, d) were basically a transfer of money from taxpayers to banks (in yet another form) using AIG as an intermediary.

For banks to proclaim their profitability in January and February is about as close to criminal hypocrisy as is possible. And again, the taxpayers fund this "one time profit", which causes a market rally, thus allowing the banks to promptly turn around and start selling more expensive equity (soon coming to a prospectus near you), also funded by taxpayers' money flows into the market. If the administration is truly aware of all these events (and if Zero Hedge knows about it, it is safe to say Tim Geithner also got the memo), then the potential fallout would be staggering once this information makes the light of day.

And the conspiracy thickens.

Thanks to an intrepid reader who pointed this out, a month ago ISDA published an amended close out protocol. This protocol would allow non-market close outs, i.e. CDS trade crosses that were not alligned with market bid/offers.

The purpose of the Protocol is to permit parties to agree upfront that in the event of a counterparty default, they will use Close-Out Amount valuation methodology to value trades. Close-Out Amount valuation, which was introduced in the 2002 ISDA Master Agreement, differs from the Market Quotation approach in that it allows participants more flexibility in valuation where market quotations may be difficult to obtain.

Of course ISDA made it seems that it was doing a favor to industry participants, very likely dictating under the gun:

Industry participants observed the significant benefits of the Close-Out Amount approach following the default of Lehman Brothers. In launching the Close-Out Amount Protocol, ISDA is facilitating amendment of existing 1992 ISDA Master Agreements by replacing Market Quotation and, if elected, Loss with the Close-Out Amount approach.

"This is yet another example of ISDA helping the industry to coalesce around more efficient and effective practices, while maintaining flexibility," said Robert Pickel, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, ISDA. "The Protocol permits parties to value trades in the way that is most appropriate, which greatly enhances smooth functioning of the market in testing circumstances."

And, lo and behold, on the list of adhering parties, AIG takes front and center stage (together with several other parties that probably deserve the microscope treatment).

So - in simple terms, ISDA, which is the only effective supervisor of the Over The Counter CDS market, is giving its blessing for trades to occur (cross) below where there is a realistic market bid, or higher than the offer. In traditional equity markets this is a highly illegal practice. ISDA is allowing retrospective arbitrary trades to have occurred at whatever price any two parties agree on, so long as the very vague necessary and sufficient condition of "market quotations may be difficult to obtain" is met. As anyone who follows CDS trading knows, this can be extrapolated to virtually any specific single-name, index or structured product easily. In essence ISDA gave its blessing for below the radar fund transfers of questionable legality. The curious timing of this decision and the alleged abuse of CDS transaction marks by and among AIG and the big banks, is striking to say the least.

This wholesale manipulation of markets, investors and taxpayers has gone on long enough.

I talked about it yesterday and some one posted a link to the zerohedge too.

My point is that the process can be only half way done, so Q2 may also be affected.

However, this points to bear rally rather than true recovery.

out at 17.4
feeling toppy

SIo2 nice illustration.

Of course, I dont think anyone here is foolish enough to believe that any of the ultra's are a wise buy and hold vehicle. Pure crack for day or swing trading.

Thanks for your posts I really enjoy them.

Do ya feel the breeze of the wind rushing through the tunnel and see a light growing stronger? Could be that light is mounted on front of a train!

I'm looking for a good read, has Roubini announced a release date for his new book?

no one is more surprised than me.

gold is basing, miners are looking better day by day here.

minus a sudden plunge in the POG im noting the miners vs. POG ratio is up and getting better. large caps showing lower volume on weak days and stronger volume on the days like today. granted yesterday the miners looked ready to bust out of the gate but took a dive EOD. this isnt normal action for them. usually they might jump early in the morning but sink through the day if gold isnt hopping.

so some encouraging signs are emerging, but we are by no means out of the woods. miners have a loooog way to run before they regain their status as leaders of gold and the prefered investment option in the metal. Barrick was taking a beating the last while, but GG and NEM were looking strong. now with barrick not cratering on gold's neutrality, im really curious to see where we will sit should gold move back to and above $1000. this could be the one to launch the miners.

if it isnt, then nothing will get them moving.

USD making a strong technical bounce back up, the TA told you exactly what was going on, and i think we need to stop top calling every time the USD has a down day, people having been calling hte USD a "bounce" for over 6 months. at some point we have to recognize the ugly facts that the Euro is not a reserve currency, and Europe is having serious problems, and these problems are eminating from sovereign states, which makes an economic crisis all the more compliacted vs. a crisis in an american state.

if Lituania collapses you have fallout from a new government taking the helm, w/ control of an army and ever shifting alliances to which contracts and business can be changes with no regard for the rule of law. this is what people neglect to appreciate when considering the USD vs. Euro case.

like it or not, europe has a long history, but it is studded with war and conflict. im bearish on the USD long term, but the next year or so who knows. its not like its stopped gold from moving up anyway.

so there's a game to be played with C and BAC come closer to 17 and 20 April earnings release? Or has the chicken already cooked?

just got on here...good to be back...

I'm not sure your pics are off topic at all...seems to me to be very pertinent as it may be one metaphor of what is, or needs to, happen right now with many politicians, 'agreements' (see above), the Fed, regulations, and even some so-called banks and so-called investment houses
S

why not wait till after the mark to market shenanigans which may lead to bank rally...what catalyst will take FAZ higher?

Nice rally...been buying and selling ESLR long

LOL!

I wanna be a Direxion manager!!!!!!

Rob.

Gee Vinod, I was going to suggest we should all here as a community start a leverage ETF company, we'd be rich very soon. It only took Direxion 4 months since their inception was Nov 18! 79% in 4 months.

You are right we would not qualify.

SiO2
To be honest.I have made a lot in these FAS/FAZ. most of the time my holding period is less than 10 minutes and I loved it

If you don't have to mark to market what incentive do you have to participate in the PPIP program?

This small rally doesn't look like it will fizzle out today.
Bought AIG...loooking for the last 20-30 minute rally.

Has anyone noted the three month cycle on the US Dollar? Looks like it's repeating?

Gun to head, it breaks out. These are treacherous currents.

..

If you'd like to buy and hold, you could buy and hold XLF, it has outperformed
FAS and FAZ...

"What do you mean CP? Since Nov XLF is -50%, while shorting both FAS+FAZ is +79%."

I meant that if you were long FAZ, XLF would have outperformed. Yes definitely, short the FAS+FAZ combo would have been the best (and safest) play by far and would likely still work if by some chance the market were to miraculously recover and move above 11K!

Even a long QID buy and hold would have been a looser...

Mark, sometimes the fate is kind to ERX and sometimes it isn't. ERX is a clear laggard today. Congratulations on hold FAS overnight!

Thanks. I'm sure I would fail the qualifying exam where you have to sell out everything dear to you. And then if I somehow did get it, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

Rob.

I really hope he can pull it off. Our country needs many more people like him.

Rob.

Anyone think the suspension of Mark to Market will help them or are they far too leveraged even to fake being healthy?

Rob.

Trader on Bloomberg: "Congress won't let AIG fail, they insure their pensions, so they will throw as much as needed to bail them out".

Been busy catching up...Faz @ 20.17.

There's Frisbee, and Ultimate Frisbee. We should stop playing FAS, and find a way to play Ultimate FAS. Waiting for yesterday's close was a good entry. Selling into today's short squeeze was a good exit. The ultras are a great intraday game.

Nice timing, Mark.

"Anyone think the suspension of Mark to Market will help them"

I was wondering the same... looks like not too many believe the GSE's are worthy otherwise they'd be piling on. Need to watch the situation, it could turn out to be a great ride or go nowhere, right?

So what's to loose? What besides the obvious could take them lower from here?

How about FRE/FNM are dissolved and taken over by private interests?

does anyone really believe that gold will jump on news that something material will come out of the G20 meetings about a new global currency?

honestly? does anyone really think all parties involved would really show their hand so clearly.

heres my call and i hope im wrong: USD will move higher after an initial head-fake lower, gold will in kind head-fake up strong and either plummet or continue to base around.

these meetings are hogwash and the info that comes from them are propaganda plain and simple. wake up.

china has no interest in seeing their largest assests devalued by proposing a new global currency.

think about it again for a second: what nation would be solid enough to supplant the US to be part of a global currency basket?

the Euro? not enough in circulation to do it alone, and even along w/ a gold standard still not enough

brazil? emerging economies are not what you base a global currency basket on, same for india, russia and most other eastern euro states.

all we really have are China and the petro currencies of Canada, and other gulf states. does anyone really think that in a matter of time a new global currency will exist with serious weight consisting of majority petro-currencies, gold and the Euro? and consider this in light of the fact that there has been a war in Europe uninterupted for no longer than a few decades for the past 2000 years on the continent....

wake up!! the USD may not be great but there is only the Yuan to cover, but it is by proxy heavily exposed to US treasuries.

G20 will release an ineffectual statement about global coordinated "stability" and the like, and nations will go about doing their own independent actions to dilute their currency fastest while making it sound as if all is well.

things will not work out as smoothly as many of us suspect in terms of gold and the USD.

like i said i hope im wrong and the obvious happens.

Adding @ 19.84 just till the close. Out of all @ 20.86

"If I'm not wearing shorts, and not wearing longs, I'm wearing cash."

Photo Please!!!

No doubt the CFTC shares SEC competence...

If Commissioner Chilton is serious about hard speculative position limits, he should first address the lunacy that allows big banks to pretend to be hedgers when they are clearly speculating. It is big financial institutions speculating that is at the root of all current economic problems. In fact, what we have been witnessing in the ongoing silver manipulation is a microcosm of our broader economic difficulties, namely, a lack of legitimate regulatory oversight and the application of common sense.

The bad news is that we must recognize that it is unlikely that the regulators will ever step up to the plate and do the right thing. The CFTC has denied that there is anything wrong in silver for so long, that it is impossible for them to admit otherwise. But is important to get them on the record, even if it is all talk and no action on their part. I promised you that if you contacted the regulators and elected representatives on this issue, you would receive dignified and serious replies. My promise is intact, as this is evident in Commissioner Chilton’s response.

The good news is that we don’t need the regulators to end the manipulation, even though they should. This crime in progress will end in spite of them refusing to perform their sworn responsibilities. The reality of the artificially depressed price and the developing silver shortage guarantees an abrupt end to the manipulation. This is all the more obvious in the behavior of the big shorts. They are clearly reducing their combined short position (COMEX plus OTC) as much as possible. This should tell you that they expect much higher silver prices and are positioning themselves for it. Unlike the regulators, the manipulators are all action and no talk. Do as they do - buy silver.

http://tinyurl.com/2clju

Yesterday I placed a stink bid on FRE @ $0.42...

2nd- Out a while ago @ 20.86. Did you guys see that move in FAZ from 20.50 to 21.05 in about 20 seconds? Damn.

Thanks, Pillzilla.

Unbelievable.

This is a sleek presentation on the likely possibilities:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/128499-watch-out-f...
I decided to keep FAZ/TZA overnight.

Even more ammo for the intraday holding only argument. The entire close was ugly as hell.

Jumped ship way to early on my TNA today as I share BSI87 market opinion. Seems toppy and close was ugly!

Loaded up TZA at pivot and double position after confirmation for some follow through tomorrow I hope. Leash will be be short.

Buy 100 shares TZA at Market Day 03/31/09 Filled

03/31/09 14:20 Filled 100 at 47.5774

Buy 100 shares TZA at Market Day 03/31/09 Filled

03/31/09 15:10 Filled 100 at 48.6

Oh I see, I haven't tried the emailing feature here.

Great listen to, about 20 minutes in length, he pulls no punches.

Hey guys - Which company do you think would benefit most from a relaxation of MTM? What about ABK or MBI? Could be worth taking a flyer, no?

"What about ABK or MBI? Could be worth taking a flyer, no?"

I was looking at ABK, but why not throw a few chips on both? I probably won't but might jump in one of these for a few minutes... What I really need to see to make me happy is my longs out of the weeds.

I want to thank the entire CTAB Team for all the hard work and planning that went into this inaugural event. It was great to meet such a diverse group of people who also shared the same interest in trading. I am confident that I have made some lifelong contacts and opened some new doors for myself this past weekend.

If the 1st yr is any indication of what is to follow in 2010, I highly recommend more of you attend. You have many months to plan now, no more excuses.

I set out to go to CTAB with 1 goal in mind, come back with 1-2 things I can implement into my trading that can help me immediately. Happy to report I know I have exceeded that goal this weekend. And although we were in a conference room at the hotel all day, with a beautiful window view of Nassau Bahamas, it didn't feel like work or school. Great mix of learning, networking, and fun.

For those who I met, I wont remember everyone's names so please reach out to me by clicking "Contact the author" function on Bill's Blog.

And I can't forget Bill Cara. "Thank you" isn't quite enough.

Is there any link between volume and decay in FAS/FAZ?
Like the lower the volume the lower the decay.
Volume is significantly increasing since Feb so as the decay...

Time to get out of Dodge...

On Friday, April 3, the Bail Out the People Movement, a growing coalition of hundreds of organizations and thousands of activists, will march on Wall Street and AIG. Protesters on April 3 will bring demands for a real jobs program, a moratorium on foreclosures, and other necessary programs for bailing out the people, not banks and Wall Street financial institutions.

The growing anger over the AIG bonus bonanza, outrageous as it is, is really about the fact that trillions of dollars are being deployed to rescue the wealthiest on Wall Street, while the unemployment and foreclosure rates continue to head towards depression levels.

As King planned the poor peoples' march on Washington in those final weeks, nowhere did he ever mention that the need and the right to a job or an income must be based on the solvency of JP Morgan Chase, Citicorp, Bank Of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, etc. and their power to turn the economy on and off depending on what makes them richer.

The message that thousands of marchers will bring to Wall St. on Friday April 3, the day before the 41st anniversary of King's death, is that society can no longer allow for jobs, housing, healthcare and all that people need to be held hostage to the arrogance, greed and power of bankers.

http://tinyurl.com/cjsfjy

any idea why the futures are down so much?

aha. thanks. i still don't understand why this is a negative...

DJIA futures have jumped from -103 to -52 in the past 20 minutes. Nikkei is now up 184. Probably just normal volatility.

well, i hope it does drop some...i'm looking to get into some financials as a speculative investment.

i had a pretty rough day today...sold Goldman puts at 5.00 that i bought at average of $6.20. still holding on to FAZ at 21.3 in AH that i bought at 22.2. Sold ERX at 24.05 that i bought at $23.20.

I'm thinking of taking some undue risk and buying in the money calls on XLF that expire in June/Sept. I think I would rather buy these than buy the FAS because of time decay...

I'm also thinking of buying MBI as it seems like it will be significantly positively impacted by the relaxation of MTM rules. I've been trying to determine who would best be impacted and I think the bond insurers would be. I see there has been a ton of insider buying on it...

Just saw CFO for GM on NBR on PBS saying the same thing.

Quassi- Thanks. When I first started reading this blog, I was amazed that posters would re-type others comments! I never new what copy and paste was.

Re: On demand heaters; I'm meeting with my top guy on this tomorrow and will report back via e-mail.

2nd - i'm beginning to agree that the 9k test is coming up this summer too...possibly sooner.

i'm thinking about taking a big speculative chance on MBI...

Hoping everyone is upto date on patches and security software

http://tinyurl.com/cb5hqf

will do. what do you think about it? i know they had a ton of mark to market issues with their insured securities, but i also remember reading a pretty detailed report from some hedge fund (don't remember if they were heavily invested in it, in which case it was clearly biased) where it was calculated that the run-off value of the company was approximate $20/share. this was back in july if i can remember correctly.

in the 9 months since july of last year, the stock has traded sideways despite a horrendous drop in the markets and numerous setbacks in the economy. this stock dropped ahead of the rest of the market so maybe we can say that this is front running the market? a relaxation of MTM would mean possible write ups on their securities and clearly far less stress on their earnings power...

http://investor.mbia.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=88095&p=i...

look like It's going to be a restless night for the bulls
watch GS going to 50 in next few week?

thats quite a bit of insider buying huh?

Les, Direxion has filed for 36 new ETFs to be launched :) theres plenty of opportunity

Mark; - no hurry

Thanks for the link. I also recommend this audio link by Ratigan:

http://radio.goldseek.com/

He calls major banksters out on their fraud with CDS and the capture of government by banking interests. He just left CNBC, I wouldn't be surprised if GE-corporate wanted him out because he goes directly at the banksters and politicians.

Some quotes:

"The stock market will remain a sideshow until we deal with the fundamental problem. ....Total corruption of our banking system by both our congress and a few high level executives here on Wall Street."

"...The Hank Paulsons, Stan O'Neals, the John Macks' ...were able to do with the complicit cooperation of the US congress to perpetrate what may be the largest insurance FRAUD in American history. Selling CDS on every home loan in America but keeping no collateral to pay for potential declines....which is why the taxpayer is now paying all of the insurance claims, while the bonuses and compensation for the sale of all of that insurance remains in Stan O'Neals bank account along with his friends...THAT IS THE PROBLEM"

"People say "Oh we can't nationalize the banks because oh it is complicated, those are sentences said by people who are ignorant of the system or want to protect the old system because they are getting paid by it."

"Bernie Madoff is the best thing that ever happened to the bank CEO's because it allows them to hide..."

"At least the tech bubble gave us something...more improved communications...The problem with this bubble is put a few billion dollars in a few guys pockets but left us with nothing.."

Pass it on to friends who aren't as financially savy, he is a very clear speaker...it is about 5 minutes in total.

I decided to change my buy limit order on ERX at $19 into the sell short limit order on ERY at $43. My reasoning is that another 5% drop in XLE (which would be required for ERY to reach $43) would qualify as a sufficient pullback in the sector to start shorting ultra-shorts (it is much safer to open such short positions after significant pullbacks).

i have read a ton of material on techniques of trading but am yet to find one thats more of a primer/throws some wisdom on inter-relationship of different markets. For example stuff like Oil up, positive to drillers, negative to refineries. Baltic index up, good for commodity mfrs. Inflation up, better for gold & silver, grain prices up, good for agri equipments & fertilizers etc. I find that history repeats itself albeit a bit different each time and it would nice to know these broader trends to make some coin.

I know its late. Alphatrends mentioned this site: bestfreecharts.com. I've been playing with it for a little while. I will load my holdings and see how it works in real time. Maybe it will help me to let go before its too late!
peace from North Puget Sound

I was just writing an article about confidence

here is an interesting study showing how people act like lemmings

http://tinyurl.com/ctcf5d

when giving away their confidence.

Here's a breakdown of 4 trillion spent so far as well as the total 12 trillion that is expected to be spent on the Keynesian economic rescue package. Aren't you glad Keynes was right? (He was right, wasn't he? I mean there's no chance that he could have been wrong, is there? What if Fekete is right and all this money printing will lead to more deflation? Naw! Of course Keynes knew better than anybody. It's not just a theory based on the false premise of equilibrium, a fiction devised to make the theory work. Oh no, it is "an ever fix-ed mark, a star to every wandering bark"--a star to every wandering former Goldman Sachs employee now working in government, which is the *real* public-private investment plan. Keynes=Truth, spelled Pravda in Russian.)

http://tinyurl.com/dloymg

"He calls major banksters out on their fraud with CDS and the capture of government by banking interests. He just left CNBC, I wouldn't be surprised if GE-corporate wanted him out because he goes directly at the banksters and politicians."

That was my first thought when I learned he was gone.

I was always puzzled how he could be so up front on CNBC — it was like a different network had hacked in.

He did the same with guests who dodged questions. "We know all that, but my question was..."

If anyone hears of his next show, I'd appreciate a heads-up.

I'd like at least 26 Senators with his approach to legislation. Picture Senator Dylan Ratigan being interviewed on MSM —

I'd love it:-)

Jim Webb is close, but seems to have disappeared since elected to the Senate.

Les, over the long term yes, but it's not so easy. In a trending environment those ETFs can go to the moon (less the cut for the Ferrari drivers). This woud happen for example if the markets go up for 10 days in a row. As unlikely as that may seem, you'd need to buy protection. We were discussing this yesterday on Skype, I believe there is a way to make it 100% safe.

36 x $5B in 4 months. Not bad.

The next six new Direxion Bull and Bear 3x ETFs include:

Fund Name Symbol Benchmark Leverage
--------- ------ --------- --------
Bull Funds
Direxion Developed Markets
Bull 3x Shares DZK MSCI EAFE Index(R) 300%

Direxion Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets
Bull 3x Shares EDC Index(SM) 300%

Direxion Technology Russell 1000(R)
Bull 3x Shares TYH Technology Index 300%

Bear Funds
Direxion Developed Markets
Bear 3x Shares DPK MSCI EAFE Index(R) -300%

Direxion Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets
Bear 3x Shares EDZ Index(SM) -300%

Direxion Technology Russell 1000(R)
Bear 3x Shares TYP Technology Index -300%

The not so funny things is that they say: "Our first eight Direxion Shares ETFs have been extremely well received by sophisticated advisors and institutional investors "

What a rip-off.

NYUGrad

always the chart bug, I signed up, no charge. Look and feel of Worden's StockFinder. Nice fib tools. Jump to new chart just by typing in new ticker.

Photogray

Thanks for the tip