[9:55am ET]. There is an interesting story developing in Hong Kong that may spread to other equity markets. We ought to discuss it here. I'm sure the SEC would like to hear your views.
HK trading rules to change
HONG KONG - HONG KONG stock exchange said Tuesday it would push ahead with a new measure designed to make insider trading more difficult, despite massive opposition from listed companies and tycoons.
However, in a bid to allay concerns, the exchange decided to defer the implementation of the rule from January 1 to April 1 next year.
The controversial measure will effectively extend the period banning directors from trading shares in their companies from the present four weeks before the company's earning announcements to up to nine months.
In a statement released on Tuesday night, the exchange's Listing Committee said it would not be withdrawing the rule.
'The Listing Committee strongly believes that the rule is in the long-term interest of Hong Kong and in the interest of the investing public,' it said.
The committee said it understood the change was perceived as dramatic and that it was brought in at too short notice.But it stated it was 'entirely satisfied with the integrity of the consultation process relating to these proposals'.
The measure, together with a series of amendments to the listing rules, was announced about a month ago, after an almost year-long consultation.
The committee's statement came after more than 250 firms and individuals signed a letter published in local newspapers Monday to protest against the change, saying the restrictions would undermine the rights of directors and could force firms to relocate.
The signatures of the open letter included those of Hong Kong's biggest firms, including Shun Tak Holdings, headed by Macau gambling tycoon Stanley Ho, and Cheung Kong (Holdings), controlled by Li Ka-shing. -- AFP
Comments
CCE Breakout potential this morning
CCE week long base.
RE:HK trading rules to change
Bill,
I think the SEC AND OSC (Provincial regulators etc) would be wise to follow HKG's lead. Judging by the outcry, it will be an effective tool to alleviate the dumping of stock prior to announcements. IMO confidence in ALL capital markets needs to be restored to shore up the rampant gaming of the exchanges.
Insider Trading
"HONG KONG - HONG KONG stock exchange said Tuesday it would push ahead with a new measure designed to make insider trading more difficult, despite massive opposition from listed companies and tycoons."
Now why would anyone want a level playing field for world equity and futures markets? What would happen to the big and powerful institutions if they didn't have these extra special tools? Gosh, think what chaos would ensue if the perception of the markets was a leveler playing field. This and transparency might cause a total real estate market and financial system collapse requiring subsequent bailouts on the order of trillions.
Wish in one hand... This could never be allowed, please don't insult our intelligence in such ways, we much prefer being blindfolded and beaten like a child's pinata.
John Murphy's [Stockcharts]
JANUARY EFFECT BOOSTS SMALL CAPS NEAR YEAREND ... Another yearend pattern is the so-called "January Effect". According to the Stock Traders Almanac, that refers to the tendency for small cap stocks to outperform large cap stocks during January. The Almanac warns, however, that most of the January Effect now takes place during the last half of December and sometimes even starts during November. The attached chart shows the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) meeting resistance at their 50-day average. The IWM/SPX ratio (below chart) shows that small caps have done a bit better than large caps since late November (22% for small caps versus 15% for large caps). Since most of the January Effect may already have taken place, it's probably too late to do much with it. But at least you'll understand what it means. One of the traditional signs of a market bottom, by the way, is stronger performance by small cap stocks. That's another reason why it's a good idea to monitor their relative performance.
http://tinyurl.com/7ng8ph
AMCN - up 10% since yesterday
Purchased/mentioned this stock yesterday. Having a wild ride right now.
Still holding TBT.
bought BGU @33.1
Bought BGU when it dipped on consumer confidence report.
Reasoning: the dip should have baked into the market prices. When I saw that the market dipped, I bought at market.
RE:HK trading rules to change
Interesting. It would make sense for all bourses to adopt the rule. If we go back to Kaimu's "C" word, it would be a step in the right direction to restore that. It would also force more long-term thinking on the part of insiders. However, is 9 months really that material? Or is it just squirting liquid into a strong wind? I don't know, Bill would.
BGU sold @ 33.76
Not sure whether the rally will hold. Selling off my position for now.
Still holding UCO at 0 gains.
SIL
Did you get the license on the truck that just hit SIL? This didn't show up on my TA charts at all...
RE:HK trading rules to change
Coming from a small trader perspective...I would feel more comfortable knowing that the playing field was level and that I could trust the fundamentals when taking risk.
Great topic and I hope Obama will be true about this being his chance to change the landscape for the good of the average person. I also hope that he does get a copy of the letter that was presented in this forum yesterday which remarked about the needed changes which he, Obama, has the power to inact.
Gold
My TA attempt to get my head around gold price action is attached.
Transferred from Daily Report comments
Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Submitted by Seamus on Tue, 12/30/2008 - 10:02. #4701
Bull Hunter
Realize you have been updating the community for some time now.
Just wanted to say Thank You for your daily update on the rating changes. It is appreciated.
NYSE new lows
Submitted by Seamus on Tue, 12/30/2008 - 10:13. #4705
One of the things I'll occasionally check is the number of new lows on the NYSE after the first hour of trading.
It can be a clue for the rest of the day. For example: Above 50, it's going to be a down day.
Like the fact that today's new lows were down to 11 at 10:00 a.m., but certainly would like to see more volume. With this volume, I usually disregard a number of signals that may carry more weight in normal volume trading days.
http://tinyurl.com/9nrodw
Re: SIL (Amex to delist)
Plate ##
"DENVER, CO--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 29, 2008 -- Apex Silver Mines Limited (AMEX:SIL - News) has received notice from NYSE Alternext US LLC (the "Exchange") that it is not in compliance with the Exchange's continued listing standards in that it has sustained losses that are so substantial in relation to its overall operations or existing financial resources, or its financial condition has become so impaired that it appears questionable, in the opinion of the Exchange, as to whether it will be able to continue operations and/or meet its obligations as they mature......"
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/081229/0463024.html
Looks like they will be delisted and start trading on the OTC market in Jan, I would guess that is what all the panic is about.
Long Alcoa AA for an
Long Alcoa AA for an investment
Re: SIL (Amex to delist)
Thanks Quasi! Maybe it does pay to watch/look in the news periodically!!
Re: Long Alcoa AA for an
You stole my idea!!!
Re: SIL (Amex to delist)
A little further review shows that SIL received that notice back on Dec 22, dated Dec 19th. I guess some people (insiders) new this was coming, just had to wait for the right time to release the news to the general public.
S&P trading range
Any one else notice how drastically low volatility has gotten recently? Over the last 5 trading days S&P has stayed within a range of 887.37-857.07, about 30 total points.
^VIX has been on a south bound train back to Oct 1,2008 levels over the last couple weeks.
At some point over the next few trading days I think we should get a pop in volatility as we move one way or another out of this trading range.
Hulbert concerned about increased bullishness in gold sector
Note, however, his comments about the compression in reaction time (to contrarian sentiment):
http://tinyurl.com/8qtyfh
Glad to hear it Chicken!
Glad to hear it Chicken!
Re: Gold
Mackinaw - Nice chart. You are on the right track. Not many TA posters here, and we need more. Lots of charts to review out there. FA has a role to play but not for timing. Media commentary - well, buyer beware!
Cara 100 Update (Final)
DOW - Downgraded to Buy from Long Term Buy (?) @ Hilliard Lyons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks, Seamus. You're quite welcome. I've been taking a breather from the Market but not the Community.
Regards
Re: Hulbert concerned about increased bullishness in gold sector
I can't say I am concerned gold is going to plummet although I am skeptical that the gold/oil ratio can stay this high for a prolonged period of time.
The gold/oil ratio is suggesting to me that we are at a point where hte rubber band is stretched and oil is the lower risk play (definetly froma volatility perspective IMO).
I am thinking that buying USO and going out a couple months and selling OTM calls on GLD would be a good play on the likelihood that the gold/oil ratio will see some mean reversion.
I also think this trade could also be a good hedge against an existing portfolio of miners to protect some recent gains (since miners are very leveraged to the price of gold anyways and thus if gold moves up, miners will experience gains to offset the possibility that the sold OTM calls on GLD move into-the-money).
WFR
bought some at 13.33. they currently hold $6/share in cash and no debt.
chip equipment makers higher today
LRCX and KLA having a good day thus far; NVLS and AMAT lagging but also up - question is: why? since everyone and his brother's forecasted a very dim outlook for semis - guess the bad news is already priced into these?
Question for Bill
Bill - Can you explain your preference and inclusin of XOM, CVX, COP in the Cara 100 over Oil Equipment Service Companies such as BHI, HAL and SLB? Do you like any of the Oil Equipment Service Companies? I know XOM and the others have held their value better than the Service Companies but they seem like good bargains now. TIA
Re: Question for Bill
Grasshopper: Bill gave extensive writeups on XOM over the last few months, especially in the WIR. Research the archives
Re: S&P trading range
Might just be the holidays, but I've noticed it too.
Re: Gold
It seems there are more than just a few who don't follow media stories:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4188/is_/a...
Case-Shiller Numbers
Case-Shiller Numbers, By Metro Area
Month-to-month decliners were led by Detroit, which fell 4.5%, and San Francisco, which dropped 4.2%. Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Minneapolis, Tampa and Washington had their largest monthly declines on record.
For the seventh-straight month, no region was able to avoid a year-over-year price drop. Phoenix and Las Vegas were again the worst performers, with drops of 33% and 32%, respectively, from a year ago. San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles and San Diego followed, with declines between 27% and 31%.
http://tinyurl.com/99h85g
(WSJ link, may require subscription)
Re: chip equipment makers higher today
"LRCX and KLA having a good day thus far; NVLS and AMAT lagging but also up - question is: why? since everyone and his brother's forecasted a very dim outlook for semis - guess the bad news is already priced into these?"
When AMAT is in the $9 range, it's extremely difficult to resist taking a position in the world's best semi capital equipment manufacturer. If you think the market is going up, AMAT will follow the trend. That said, semi manufacturing expansion isn't likely to set any land-speed records in the next few years IMO.
LMT
Eyeballing Lockheed Martin for a good intraday pullback to enter as a longer term investment. One big danger is that this breakout is on horribly low volume, so if I enter I'll put strict stops in place.
Reading material if you want to kill some time....
http://tinyurl.com/6ljklg
Re: chip equipment makers higher today
If you look at it in the context of cash, you get a pretty encouraging story. Take WFR for example. They just projected $400 MM in revenues for next quarter. This is a run rate of $1.6 Billion. In 2006 they did $1.5 Billion in revenues and generated $400 MM of cash. They projected gross margins of 46%. If that's the case, they will have gross profit of $740 MM. Their operating expenses are roughly $150 MM. That leaves net income of about $550 MM (assuming additional $40MM in expenses).
You can assume they will have adjustments to net income of roughly +$80 MM, coming to total Cash Flows from Operations of $630MM.
With capex of $200 MM, Investments of $50 MM, and cash flows from financing activities of roughly nil, you're looking at an additional $380 MM in cash generated in 2009. That's an additional $2/share in cash. So in roughly 3 years at these depressed levels of activity in their business, they will have $6/share (current) + 3 years x $2/share = $12/share in cash.
This to me is a no brainer.
Schedule D/Wash sale accounting
To those active traders who are dreading preparing their 2008 Sch D: For several years now I've been using TradeLog from Armen Computing. Very pleased with it and consider it well worth the cost. Has automatic data feed from an extensive list of US brokerages (including IB). See link below. ~OG
http://www.armencomp.com/tradelog/
TBT
Big battle going on :P
Look at the 5-day view:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATBT
Re: Question for Bill
Re: "Can you explain your preference and inclusion of XOM, CVX, COP in the Cara 100 over Oil Equipment Service Companies such as BHI, HAL and SLB..."
I don't have COP in the Cara 100. I have the following ten companies:
CVX Chevron Texaco Corp , [GICS 10, Cara 100]
CEO CNOOC [GICS 10, Cara 100]
ECA EnCana Corp [GICS 10, Cara 100]
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp [GICS 10, Cara 100]
IMO Imperial Oil Ltd [GICS 10, Cara 100]
PTR PetroChina Co [GICS 10, Cara 100]
PBR Petroleo Brasileiro SA [GICS 10, Cara 100]
STO Statoil ASA (ADR) [GICS 10, Cara 100]
SU Suncor Energy Inc [GICS 10, Cara 100]
TOT TOTAL SA (ADR) [GICS 10, Cara 100]
I have at times considered making a change in this list, but the list is based on my assessment of the companies, and the selection has nothing to do with the current share price. I explain that every industry and every company in them will experience good times and bad times. I believe that if you restrict your trading to stocks that are the highest quality, the number of surprises and disappointments are significantly fewer. At cycle bottoms, as determined by the RSI-7 technical indicator for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily price series data, we are likely to buy the stock and write put options. At cycle tops, we tend to sell the stock or at least write call options with the expectation the stock gets called away at what we think would be a favorable price, and we also close our short puts at that time.
I'll look closer at these Oil equipment and services companies, but presently I have no opinion. The chart of the $OSX index is still bearish whereas the Big Oil company index $XOI broke to the upside yesterday. I have been buying XOM and PBR and trading their options for a couple weeks. I agree that if SLB broke to 43 that it could quickly run to maybe 50, but I have no feel for the stock. Why I keep the Cara 100 list at 100 is because there are only so many I want to trade at one time -- maybe 20 -- and I need to have the records at hand and a feel for all of them. There is a limit that a small trading team, or any individual, can cover. One of the biggest problems that traders have is that they tend to focus on the latest story, which they seldom really understand, and then they buy late and sell early (when the next great story comes their way). I don't let people control me, individually or the market. My list helps me stay in control. If I believe a company is going to declare bankruptcy or have a business model that no longer works, then I clear it from the Cara 100. I removed Lehman Brothers, for example, well before it crashed.
Hope that helps.
Re: chip equipment makers higher today
Well, somehow I think its better to be early in these than late (if at all).
Re: the concept that the broader market averages drive this sector, I think that's quite debatable. Eventually another tech boom will occur out of necessity (ageing equipment and software, mostly).
Sign of the Times
People Pulling Up to Pawnshops Today Are Driving Cadillacs and BMWs
Well-to-Do Turn to Last-Resort Lenders
http://tinyurl.com/8s6utr (WSJ online) Excerpt below:
“Typically, pawnshop customers have a household income of about $29,000, according to Dave Adelman, president of the 2,400-member National Pawnbrokers Association. But operators around the country say they are seeing a surge in new activity fueled in part by a different clientele: middle- and upper-middle-class customers facing ravaged stock portfolios, tightened bank credit and unexpected layoffs. In areas dogged by high unemployment and foreclosure rates, the pawn business is especially robust.
Rick LaChappelle, owner of four pawnshops in Maine, calculates he has lent about 33% more money this year than last. "The banking industry is not giving out any money right now," he said. "So people are relying on second-tier lending institutions."
While some pawnshops -- like Beverly Loan Co. in Beverly Hills -- have discreetly served the wealthy for decades, more stores, such as Society Hill, are newly awash with furs, diamonds and other baubles from the bubble. At places like Society Hill, transactions are up by as much as 40% in recent months.”
Tempted to take a position in TBT
See attached graph
Wanted to short DTO, settled for TLT
Wanted to short shares of DTO, but Zecco / Penson doesn't have the shares.
Figured TLT shorting was a second best alternative, and executed @ 121.03
I actually was surprised the order executed. I would think that the erosion associated with the 2x funds would work in my favor here over the longer term.
Wish me luck.
PS -- has anyone been successful in shorting DTO?
-rix
Giving up on gold and miners
There is no place in a market like this for an investor like me.
Next time I'll just sell sooner and sell all at once so I don't have to suffer like I did this time watching my profits disappear. Of course that tanked whatever I was holding, but that's life.
Sorry..
How China Deals With Financial Fraud
I guess we won't see many Wall Street fund managers volunteering to work their "magic" in China anytime soon...
China's state news service reports that a copper company official convicted in a bribery case will face death.
Two other executives at state-owned Yunnan Copper Group, China's third-largest copper producer, were sentenced to 20 years and life, respectively. The official who got the life sentence was given a break because he confessed and returned money he had stolen.
Yu Weiping, who got the death sentence, was on the board of the copper miner and various of its subsidiaries between 2000 and 2007. He stood accused of taking bribes of $4.26 million and of embezzling another $6 million, according to the news service.
http://tinyurl.com/78wnj7
BLDP - Ballard Power ?
Had this one on my fuel cell / solar / alt energy list. Haven't owned it for years but just noticed it is down about 50% over the last 2 days on about 4 times ave vol. They are doing a deal with Superior Income Plus trust fund, who needs to convert from a trust to a corporation, board and shareholders approved the deal. This was all approved over a week ago without much change in the stock price.
No news, but yesterday it dropped below the recent support and I guess has been taking out stop losses all the way down, maybe a US fund is still doing some tax loss selling.
Anybody have any ideas on this huge move when other alt energy and clean tech stocks are holding there own or moving up a little. BLDP US or BLD.to
sold some puts on ERX
Bill said that XLE will be the leader in the upcoming bull market. Its price chart seems to have bottomed. So I figured: why not make some "free" money by selling put options on ERX? The options premium is HUGE now: I just sold 2 contracts of January 2009 puts with a strike price of $35 for $3.80 each! That's a return of 11% in 2 weeks for the $7K I am putting aside until January 16 (when these options will expire). Annualized, that's a 2.6X return! Why would anyone buy ERX shares, if you can sell out-of-the-money puts (which is a much smaller-risk trade) and make a 2.6X return in a year? If these shares a put to me, then I'll get them near the November 20 low, which is not so bad for a sector that should be the leader in the next bull market (I'll just hold those shares until they double).
Re: chip equipment makers higher today
Silicon suppliers and silicon consumers (IE semi-chips makers, Intel, etc.) would I think have more immediate upside potential than equipment manufacturers. Probably though I'd imagine the latter have been crushed considerably more, so perhaps comperable long term upside potential? The question is, in terms of equipment, time horizon for manufacturing expansion and/or implementation of new technologies (Perhaps larger wafer substrates/improvements in photo lithography/metrology/in-situ metrology). Book to bill is key to equipment manufacturer success. Just thinking out loud, it's been a few years back in my younger days...they still face essentially the same hurdles I'm sure...
Here's an industry source I've been following for the better part of 20 years when wafers were only a few inches in diameter:
http://www.semiconductor.net/
Of note, in terms of equipment manufacturers:
Foundries freeze procurement of new lithography tools for 2009, says paper
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Commercial Times, December 30; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 30 December 2008]
As foundries will likely suffer a utilization rate of less than 40% in the first quarter of 2009, orders for new lithography tools are currently limited, according to a Chinese-language Commercial Times report citing sources at semiconductor equipment suppliers. In particular, procurement of immersion lithography tools for 50nm-made DRAM from Taiwan's memory chip suppliers is zero, the paper said.
Applied Materials has only secured orders for four lithography systems from its Taiwan-based customers, signifying that foundries and DRAM makers will be delaying their advanced process node traditions amid the economic slowdown in 2009, according to the paper.
DRAM makers are expected to soon migrate to 50nm-class production, whereas the semiconductor industry should be on the move to ramp up 32nm and 28nm production for the coming year."
Re: chip equipment makers higher today
yes, agreed, book-to-bill is lagging; we've already talked about the mm size reductions last month; and maybe the competition is too keen amongst the producers (though every chip maker has its favorite; Samsung prefers Novellus, etc etc). I'm just looking for another sector outside of metals, oil, nitrates, commodities, et al.
Ok, what do you think of homebuilders as a bottom-fishing contrarian play?
Can Beazer and Hovnanian survive much longer? Toll Brothers looks to be the strongest (and most expensive) of the lot; I also track on DR Horton and Lennar. I can't remember the last time any of them had a profitable quarter though.
Solar Cell Si Spot prices down:
"Poly-Si spot prices fall to US$150-175/kg, say Taiwan makers
Latest news
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 30 December 2008]
Major international suppliers of solar-grade polycrystalline silicon (poly-silicon or poly-Si) have lowered their quotes to US$150-175/kg, a drop of 56-63% from the US$400/kg quotes seen in October 2008 and the lowest level since February-March 2006, according to industry sources in the Taiwan."
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20081229PD222.html
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
Hmm, no comprendo my friend, I saw a six handle on gold about a month ago, GG put in an impressive low, and it looks like oil might be finished falling....
I'm guessing you may have bought a little on the high side but I don't see much more downward pressure for the metals themselves.... If energy pops up, wouldn't the miners and metals?
Flow Through Shares
Has any of the Canadians in the community been using flow through shares as a way to reduce your tax burden? I'm going to try it out this year only for the great tax breaks and with a slim hope that there could be a bottoming of the exploration sector in the next two years.
Historical Stock Information
Is there anywhere on the internet that I can view historical stock information (charting) of equities that have been taken off the market? I'm reading Alex Elder's books and I'm going to start scoring my trades as he suggests. Equity trade I'd like to score is my trade in ARU.to but it is off the tsx.
Thanks
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
Here are Richard Russell's latest comments on Gold (w/ out the charts):
We're close to the end of the year, and I want to talk about something that is happening, something that few people are aware of. W.D. Gann is considered by many professionals to have been one of the greatest commodity traders and thinkers of all times. Here are Gann's words, courtesy of my old New York friend, Ron Rosen.
"When a stock or a commodity advances into new territory or to prices which it has not reached for months or years, it shows that the force or driving power is working in that direction. It is the same principle as any other force which has been restrained and breaks out. Water may be held back by a dam, but if it breaks through the dam, you would know that it would continue downwards until it reaches another dam or some obstruction or resistance which would stop it."
Let's apply Gann's words to what's recently been happening to gold. The chart below traces the action of gold from 1980 to the present. Note that gold rose to a record high back in 1980. Then for 19 years gold fell back into a bear market. Meanwhile, pressure to move higher was "bottled up" in gold -- until the year 1999. In that year gold declined to a low of 297. From its 297 low, gold rose in a new primary bull market. In late-December 2007, after 28 years of being restrained, gold advanced above its old 1980 high of 850 and continued to a new record high of 1017. From there, as you can see on the chart, gold declined to "test" its historic breakout area of 850. This brings us to the present. Gold is now rallying above and away from the 850 level, and it remains to be seen whether gold can now rally to a new record high above its prior 2008 peak. If W.D. Gann's thesis is correct, gold should now be on its way to complete its primary bull market.
The horizontal blue line stretches across from its old (1980) 850 level. Note that recently the 850 area was tested, and from there gold has headed higher.
The monthly chart below traces the bull market in gold. The current deflationary atmosphere has not halted the bull market in gold. Over the last year, only gold and Treasury bonds are higher. Gold is up 5.27% over its price of one year ago.
Relative Strength -- the monthly chart below shows the gold price in relation to the S&P 500 (gold divided by SPX). Gold's relative strength remains superior to the S&P 500. Gold has been the place to be.
Re: chip equipment makers higher today
goldbug - Hey, I'm not making a case against equip. makers, it looks better in terms of years, I think. How about AMAT/Novellus re-testing their lows again? Bill has said this is a traders market, I suppose that means investors should look for retest of lows and "safe" dividends.
Home builders - Hmm, not being tuned on that frequency, I have no feeling except home prices are still falling? I'm hearing a second foreclosure wave of comparable magnitude is around the corner while job losses are mounting and experts claim this is all factored in.
What will Obama do? Jobs, jobs, jobs, infrastructure, alternative/clean energy. Lots of spending, we need lower dollar?, lower rates?, higher energy anyway?
It's all very confusing to me... like a deer in the headlights, my friend.
Russian academic predicts end of the US by 2010
wall street journal article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419...
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
"Gold is now rallying above and away from the 850 level, and it remains to be seen whether gold can now rally to a new record high above its prior 2008 peak. If W.D. Gann's thesis is correct, gold should now be on its way to complete its primary bull market."
This also my perception.
TBT and The Perth Mint
TBT chart looks like a solid floor with no more meaningful room to suppress the yield curve's long treasuries without loss to inflation.
Looking to lock into both TBT and Perth Mint gold in the coming weeks. Luke said "Sometimes nothin' [no stocks] can be a real cool hand."
Cheers.
Re: LMT
you might want to check to see their exposure to having to make up for losses in their defined benefit plans...even though they can pass these losses on to the government it was all that was asked about by analysts during the last conference call and the earnings numbers may suffer
TBT down 3%
Talk about a trade that just refuses to work. This is it.
Re: Russian academic predicts end of the US by 2010
Interesting article, this guy is definaitely a few fries short of a McHappy meal. Is it possible? Yes anything is possible. Probable? Not IMO.
Re: How China Deals With Financial Fraud
I'm not really a death penalty kind of guy...but if you have it why limit it to the poor schleps the U.S. limits it to....don't white collar criminals who ruin people's life savings do just as much if not more harm?
GLW pops up?
"IC distributors upbeat as AUO and CMO reportedly receive LCD TV panel orders from Samsung
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20081230PD206.html
Re: sold some puts on ERX
I like this trade...earlier in the month I sold the 30's for 3.20...yesterday I entered an in the money covered call trade that will return almost 13% in 18 days...
Re: sold some puts on ERX
unless this issue tanks...but the premiums are so high I think you could write your way to profits pretty easily...
Re: How China Deals With Financial Fraud
"don't white collar criminals who ruin people's life savings do just as much if not more harm?"
I call it terrorism. Water boarding was the interrogation tactic adopted by the previous administration.
Re: TBT down 3%
Yup, they are certainly fleecing any sheep that don't think that money should be free.
Maybe tomorrow or friday's horrifying economic reports will push it so low it can't go any lower.
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
Sorry, I am just very depressed with the market anymore. I was getting reasonably close to breaking even for 2008 yesterday, and today it all went south again. I'll have $3000 of tax write offs each year for as long as I live, it looks.
Re: How China Deals With Financial Fraud
blue bluff you hit it on the head. I would suggest one white collar thug has the ability to wipe out thousands through dishonest and fraudulent behaviour. I have always maintained the system favors punishing smaller crimes to a harsher level. If a guy robs you, he does 3-5 years. If a CEO or CFO cook the books and allow thuggish behaviour that wipes the company, employees, suppliers and shareholders there is little recourse. Have yo hand it to a lot of these clowns, they aren't stupid. Why risk stealing a little from a few and do time vs stealing from many for a lot for no penalty.
AET - Aetna
Hi Bill - Thanks for insight on AET - up ~35% since your comments on 12/9/08. Happy Trading All
Re: TBT down 3%
Closed at the lod. What a crock of you-know-what.
Re: Russian academic predicts end of the US by 2010
uh oh, Does Kaimu speak Mandarin?
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
Cheapy- don't take this the wrong way, but the markets are down roughly 40% Y/Y. If you are almost breakeven then you are actually doing very well. Trust me, I know. Hang in there and remove the emotion. It will do wonders for your portfolio.
Re: AET - Aetna
A great call, wish I'd jumped on that train too!!!
Re: TBT down 3%
Yes, they beat me on that today, too.
Tomorrow morning, if the unemployment claims are bad enough, maybe there will be an absolute panic at the open. I'm guessing the will pull the usual stunt of revising up last weeks claims, and add another 500k + poor souls to the list, making for a record continuing claims. If the panic is bad enough, maybe it will ignore friday's mfg numbers, which will be absolutely abysmal, so maybe one of those will be the real bottom point to buy.
They can't keep borrowing trillions forever and have rates keep dropping. At some point someone might ask who will ever be able to repay ANY of it, and when?
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
What exactly was your position that in the matter of a day, you've lost tens of thousands of dollars and are miles away from a 2008 break even that you would have reached yesterday?
Gold and the miners weren't that badly off today!?!
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
Chear up my cheapy friend, Rome wasn't built in a day, it'll take more than a few more of those bricky things. Yuk though, what could possibly be down so much, SIL???
Re: TBT down 3%
TBT is a very long trade, I think. I hope you're not using margin for that one...
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
Yes, I know.
But its almost like they know where I'll put my mental stop losses, and for sure go there to force me to either dump or violate my rules. That's what makes it so frustrating.
RE: TBT and RIG today for example.
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
You're being too hard on yourself with this one. The TBT/short-TLT trade will come off eventually - it sounds like you expect it to occur immediately though. The flight to safety regardless of garbage yields continues, and may for some time.
Vadym put it best:
"Markets can stay insane much longer than you can stay solvent".
PNP-T Pinetree
This one has caught fire the last two days. Not sure if its just the NOT holding sending it up, but that doesn't appear likely as Noront is off today, or if other interests it has in the mix are getting someones juices flowing. About two times usual volume today, and up ~43%, but I am still way underwater on the darn thing. Happy Trading
Re: Giving up on gold and miners
WGW was one. Panic at a lofty PE around 4.
RBY another. 3000 gr/ton gold ore is just as worthless as anything else.
NGD another. selling at 1/2 of book.
TBT, stopped out, ok, not a miner. money will be free for 20 yrs it says.
RIG, stopped out, ditto, just stopped out.
Another 10% in 3 days would have got me over 1/2 way, and instead of 3% gain, I got 3% loss on what seemed like a good day otherwise.
Re: PNP-T Pinetree
I think Dines may have recoed it last night.I looked at it a few days ago thinking it was due for a pop but did nothing because I had no cash and other positions were in bad shape(what I have left)
ps; re the usd, could be an hs top in the making, if so shares should have good relative strength ahead?
http://img118.imageshack.us/img118/2264/usdae8.png
belated merry x mas and especially some hope for a better new year!
You have my sympathy
It's funny when I first started doing this, there would be big rallys which I would invariably buy both sides of, (buy low sell higher buy higher still take a loss on the 2nd batch). At the end of a great day in which I did 10 very exciting trades and the stock would go up a dollar, I would end up down 10 or 15 bucks. Very depressing. I am just like you guys...Fumbling towards infinity.
A new spin on Vad's wisdom for the hellidays
Relatives can stay insane longer than I can stay sober...
tbt
treasury rates can stay low for a long time, much longer than we want to think.
why?
banks borrow from the fed at .5% overnight (discount rate, not fed funds target) and go out and buy the mid/longer end of the curve.
2, 3, 5 year notes. they will earn from .25% to 1% on that trade risk free (as long as the US gov is doing biz). It is free money to recapitalize their tarnished balanced sheets as current toxic assets continue to underperform (and will continue to do so for a very long time).
TBT will pay off but don't bet the farm on it or as someone mentioned, you can go insolvent while the market is insane (vad).
Once TBT moves, don't be shy to take profits and get back in at a later time.
Velocity of money ratio (M1 money multiplier) is now below 1. I haven't found a chart (or stat) that has shown that stat before. social mood has changed, meaningful inflation shouldn't even be a thought for a long time (oh yes they are printing money like it is going out of style) because social mood has shifted to not consume everything in sight. We are starting to save as a nation which is good.
(M1 ranged from a ratio of 3 - 2.75 during the 80s and 2.75 - 1.8 during the 90s and 1.8 - 1.6 up until the crisis during the 00s; NOW below 1).
Currency inflation yes, credit no. IMO - The USD currency inflation will be offset sometime next year (or year after) by global currency collapse (see pound's trend, soon EURO, Japan will do whatever it takes to keep their currency from going up - not gonna work either). We are all seeing the problems with the deficits and FED printing. What we don't see are the problems going on elsewhere which will have dramatic consequences to those citizens living in those areas. Geopolitically it will be a mess.
trying to be a little more positive... for now. Bring on the new year!
Happy New Year to the community!
Madoff, again
Just read an article in Canada's Globe and Mail:
"Madoff liquidation trustee receives $28-million for costs"
NEW YORK — A U.S. Bankruptcy Court judge on Tuesday approved the transfer of $28.1-million (U.S.) to cover expenses tied to the liquidation of Bernard Madoff's investment firm. Irving Picard, the trustee presiding over the liquidation of Mr. Madoff's investment firm, said he needed the $28.1-million to cover employee salaries and other costs, according to court documents.
The best part was in the reader's comments to the article:
Elmo Harris from Niagara Falls, Canada writes: "Would the last crook leaving Wall Street please turn off the lights?"
When TBT moves, market is
When TBT moves, market is going higher money going to come out from TLT and will go in stock
I hae open order to buy at 32, I change it to 34
TBT/TLT and sideline cash
have to add comment on this one.
tlt has a market cap of 1.9 bil and tbt is around 600 mil.
Those two vehicles will have an impact of what the market does, not impact the market.
The action that they will get are symptoms of what the overall breadth of the market.
Also, it does not matter how much cash is on the sidelines, cash on the side lines is not a bullish indicator.
For two reasons, the most obvious is that people must feel confident to assume risk. Let's think how bad we all got burned by the recent market actions... Are we without a doubt risk takers now? I think not.
the other reason is this...
If I sell you $1000 of stock and you take your $1000 of cash from the sidelines to buy my stock.
You now own $1000 of stock and I now have $1000 of cash on the sidelines. Now you sell your stock a month later for $1500 (great profit) and your neighbor buys the stock from you with his cash from the sidelines, you now have $1500 cash on the sideline and the neighbor now owns $1500 of stock. IPOs are the only way to get sideline cash in the market, all else is an equal exchange, except for the last guy/gal in who eats the losses.
Ponzi scheme anyone?
Fear and greed or confidence/over confidence is what drives the market up/down. Not just a bunch of cash on the sidelines. There are many asset class decisions to make in the world, why would stocks be the leader out of this one? Name the class it will be a crap shoot to see which one rises fastest first. I doubt there will be anything meaningful until, housing prices flatten out for at least a quarter or two and Job loss slows significantly.
Re: Madoff, again
to cover employee salaries and **other costs** according to court documents.
LOL! Shameless they are!
The judge just gave all the remaining assets to his NY gov't buddies ( trustee, receiver, us atty, prosecutor to split up! Watch the bonuses they award themselves and then see how long they drag this out to make Sure they suck up every single penny!).
China's great migration wrenched back by crisis
Few months ago, it appeared that this would happen, now it is happening. The largest manufacturing bubble in the history of the globe has just burst and now the workers are moving back out of the city.
Who is going to live in all those skyscrapers built in China? were they not building 5-6 manhattans a year? How about businesses?
No government - China/Russia/USSA is smart or immune to the global crisis. nada, zero, zilch,
Like Bill said, stay independent. It makes more and more sense every single day.
"CHENGDU, China, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The biggest migration in human history has gone into reverse."
http://tinyurl.com/ChinaReMigrate
Re: China's great migration wrenched back by crisis
If migrant workers in China are being 'repatriated' to their hometowns, then look out. No one else makes products at the "China price." That includes Africa. 12 hour days, 7 days a week- where else in the world do you find workers who WANT to work at that pace? Where else do they run 'model' factories that pass muster by Western standards, while simultaneously running 3-4x as many 'shadow' factories that enable companies to manufacture export products at rock bottom prices on arbitrary deadlines? The only silver lining I see here is perhaps a breather on out-of-control pollution and occupational illness.
25 stocks
Initial scans using worden blocks = older version of their new stock finder program.
I am watching these 25 charts from Cara 100. Need to cross check this with Cara Survivors this week. No positions in any of the below yet but they at least peak my interest. Of note most of the below are metals and oils. And i wasnt trying to make this happen. i simply hit the spacebar key on my laptop as the charts switch over to the next stock. As something looks good on the menu, i jot down the ticker on paper.
My initial scan with my eye is looking for volume spikes, relation vs 30/50 dma, is the ma rising/falling/flat, how fall has it fallen, any obvious patterns forming etc.
From here i will take some time and look at the industries, p&f chart, stoch, rsi, and search caracommunity.com for comments of others here or from Bill Cara, then do some more searching on the www.
I need to do above for cara survivors, and my ibd list which is 300+ stocks now, and my solar basket.
Happy New yr to the Cara Community! Cheers to a great & profitable 2009. (raised glass of wine)
utx
tot
nue
bmy
ceo
xom
abx
gg
gfi
slw
chrw * inverse head and shoulders
chl
orcl
tef
syt
ntes
pbr *
rio
ggb
aet
abb
ccl
ko
intc
gsk
TBT / International Purchases of US Dollars
Treasuries are dollars. Thailand and Taiwan have recently become net purchasers of dollars, along with countless other countries...
The Asian Development Bank has warned against “unnecessary and excessive interventions in the currency markets, especially to depreciate domestic currencies..." They want the $USD purchases to stop. Of course, this is a bubble, and can go on for much longer than expected.
But, when this bubble pops like all of the other ones, who will care if she purchased TBT @ $35.50 or $32.20 or $29.17? This puppy will go sky-high.
Blindfolded and beaten like a child's pinata?
Loveit....transparency or trouncing? Well we do have a choice. Always. Imagine life with a clear looking glass that reflects in both directions equally? Appropo of certain resistance to economists much less atrologers... according to a certain business astrologer/economist I know...if we have not mended our ways by February 5th 2009 we will have them mended for us. PAINFULLY. Repent or perish! Or we could just settle for the blonde leading the blind....there's a joke in there.
DOWN AND DOWN
ALOHA !!
This will totally kill California's property tax revenues which are key to school, park, library and road maintenance and construction.
GREENWICH GROUND REPORT
ALOHA !!
From a very good friend of mine who lives and works in the REAL ESTATE biz in Greenwich,CT ... Hedge Fund USA!!
"Don't know the Madoff's directly, only the sons ex wife lives down the street.. I kinda know her through friends.. luckily she divorced that family about five years ago and I understand her settlement was put elsewhere..
She's remarried now so it's behind her.
I don't know anyone else that was directly affected... he seemed to get a lot of his business from his contact with the synagogue in both Florida and, I think, Stamford but he had a lot of high roller friends... not so much any more.
We've had a couple of call ins at the office for price opinions of their homes that I think might be the result of his shenanigans given the profile of the home owners, but I don't know for sure.
This year business was definitely much slower but the market is still pretty strong.. just takes longer to sell something.. no more two week turn around.. now it's three to six months so it costs me more to market it."END
So the MADOFF SCAM continues to domino right into the real estate markets of the rich and famous! Lose your life savings and you are forced to sell your home or at least one of them!
So Madoff preyed upon churches and synagogues also ... When I was a contractor building State and Federal prisons there were "special" plush prisons for white collar criminals. These prisons had no razor wire fence and looked like a shopping mall inside! I suppose Madoff will end up at the CLUB FED type prison. I believe if he were thrown in with the general population at say Vacaville or Corcoran or Folsom it would be a death sentence. For some inmates it would be "instant fame" to shank Bernie ... What a monumental fall from the Wall Street pedestal! Beware of old inmates sending you investment deals via e-mail! HA!! Of course at least in prison Bernie will meet up with higher class criminals!
TBT
BP
I don't really understand bonds and specifically TBT although I understand it is an 2x inverse fund on 20 or 30 year treasury bonds. When you say "sky high", how high could that be? Are you talking about doubling or tripling? What would a 20 year treasury have to go to? Thanks for your help and pardon my ignorance. I just need educating!
Re: Historical Stock Information //ARU.to
Aurelian - taken out by Kinross
http://money.canoe.ca/News/Sectors/Gold/2008/09/04...
Historical chart at stockhouse
http://tinyurl.com/8jwkxh
or a few more pull-down tools at FinData.co.nz. It might take a while to link.
http://tinyurl.com/7qj2km
Thank you google. No thanks P. Anderson
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