Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tues, Feb. 17, 2009

Good morning.

CHA - Upgraded to Hold @ Deutsche Securities

---------

Downgrades:

CHL - to Hold @ Deutsche Securities

DEO - to Sell @ UBS

GOOG - from Accumulate to "Source of Funds" (???) @ Think Equity. Price Target Lowered from $350 to $300

FSLR - Price Target Raised from $98 to $114 @ Kaufman Bros.

Market price reflects uncertainty and fear about future, but it doesn’t tell you whether the stock is undervalued or if the market knows something that is not reflected in price. There is talk of nationalize solvent banks pre-emotively; like Bush invading Iraq to prevent the weapons of mass destruction from being used on us.
Oil down/gold up/dollar up/market down these dos not sink with what they should be in normal time. My feeling is good time to buy stock is coming.

2nd
I am not selling USO and UNG I have. Will ride it out for few days. I know I made mistake and do not want to make mistake again by selling them now. Let’s see what comes

watch out below. I hope gold and silver, and mining shares can still swim up against this negative current.

lose the forty pounds, man...you probably unknowingly walk by the perfect girl every day because you have blinders on...

Email reply from the Perth Mint:

PERTH MINT DEPOSITORY SERVICES (PMDS)

* The account opening minimum is US $50,000.

* Runs like a bank account. The client receives only a trade confirmation and annual account statements.
* There are no entry or exit fees for accounts with balances of more than US $250,000.00.
* The client is free to buy and sell as often as you like.

Kaimu, that's a decent barrier to entry!

I'm just a poor schmo, who won't have 50G ready for this crisis.

10% CEF and junior/senior gold/silver producers it is...

2nd...I got on the scale and discovered that I only weigh 230 now, at 6 feet tall that make me only...what? 35 pounds overweight? Plus I have several blood-filled appendages which require a little extra heft to administer thereupon. Besides I practically have to fight the married women off, at my age all you get is married women and middle aged, but that's okitay.

Oh and be gettin' ready to ship those Vadym Graifer products....May is right around the corner and I already really enjoyed techniques of tape reading...It should be in every library. This time I'm thinking, How to scalp any settler:)

http://tinyurl.com/5cwmap

They seem to have a certificate program with a much lower minimum.

"The Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP) enables you to invest precious metal without the inconvenience and risk of personal storage. The Perth Mint issues a Certificate to you confirming your purchase, which is stored at the Mint on your behalf.

The Perth Mint Certificate gives you legal title to precious metals held by The Perth Mint on either a segregated (allocated) or unsegregated (unallocated) basis. The Certificate is in your name and identified by a Certificate number. The PMCP is also the only Government Guaranteed certificate program in the world, making it one of the safest ways to own precious metals.

The Program offers investors a unique range of precious metal storage options on attractive terms:

Account opening minimum: USD 10,000 (AUD 5,000 for Australian/New Zealand residents)
Minimum subsequent purchases or sales: USD 5,000 (AUD 5,000)
Products include Perth Mint allocated coins and bars and unallocated bullion.
Certificates are purchased through a reputable international Approved Dealer network.
Certificates are transferable, non-negotiable, and have no fixed size."

ALOHA !!

Yep, the price of entry is high ...

I believe if you are an Australian or New Zealand citizen the minimum is $10,000, but so it goes!

You can always buy and store physical yourself at your own home or business. I believe even those with few dollars that physical is key and to own coins is a must, not so much the bars but at least coins, like a British Gold Sovereign is my choice. In fact back in the 1930s the PERTH MINT used to mint the British Gold Sovereigns on behalf of the Queen!

Minimums are driving the "street price" for gold and silver very high, much higher than the COMEX price. Even at places like CNU and other coin dealers they have minimums of $2500 or more. That forces many "little guys" into an EBay situation where you bid. The little guy always gets the shaft one way or another!

TIP: I have timed buys on EBay on BIG move days(like today)with near expiration auctions and/or either a seller who did not know what they had on a BUY NOW auction. That was years ago though and by now there is less deals and more risk.

I believe a gold bullion vault with similar qualities as the PERTH MINT, where smaller investments can be made would be very popular. Truly "allocated" for smaller investors, more or less like a safe deposit box set up, complete with serial numbers and access/trading! Some fees would be less than flexible though since the vault needs to turn a profit, like any other business does.

Hummmm ...

my second favourite site after this one is a low-carb site,

http://www.proteinpower.com/drmike/

ive been over 1 year w/ minimal carbs, went from 5'11" 200 to 175 and doing the same level of activity as before, but im stronger, feel way better, and my blood levels across the board improved.

the idea that eating low fat is healthy for you has been completely discredited, consuming too much sugars, refined flour and starchy veggies is what makes you fat. and animal fat is not bad for you, w/ less carbs you can eat the fat and enjoy your meals while still loosing weight and being healthy.

im a huge proponent of low-carb almost as much as im a gold bug!!!
trust me, have your blood checked, then try it for 2 months. you will be amazed and it will change your life.

who know's shark, it may even cure your tourettes-like outbursts!!!
just joking, i love those outbursts.

whadddayawhadddayawhadadyyyawyahaddayawhaddaywhaddayawhaddayawhaddaya talking about?

hi shark,

anyone else can skip this:

I totally understand. I miss the wine and croissants and entertaining. I was a carb addict. well, I should say I am an addict, (seems this trading thing has replaced the carbs!)

True, my life is more boring without carbs (but I feel great)- I used to cook gumbo, and have barbeques several times a week. My front door was always open to neighbors so that meant parties almost every day... I do miss that.

there are 2 restaurant in SF called Maxs opera house and the Cheesecake factory. They make a low carb cheesecake that is close to the real thing. I also live for the low carb icecream.

vb

Bid @ $1.98

Sold Yamana @ 9.40 and Silver Wheaton @ $7.49 Total liquidation, nice profit. Now pondering buying puts in gold and silver for short term trade. I have patience.

>"They seem to have a certificate program with a much lower minimum."

Yeh, saw that NYUGrad. But one has to go through a dealer - those in Ireland, England: can I have confidence in them? It goes back to third-party risk Kaimu was talking about.

As we were talking about Bullionvault - Lloyd's - Bullionvault's insurer - is on life-support and Downing St. is denying the need to nationalise this bank! In plain speak that means keep the f(&ç away from Lloyd's business.

I don't know...

LPHI, VNO, AVB, PSA yippee!

I thought you gave them up when you were still a kid.

covered short life partners holdings - weird!

Oh yeah...But I still have to fight 'em off.

BTW saw a fascinating 2 hours on the fascinating subject of human sexuality...A tidbit:

Scientific studies of women discovered, surprisingly, that married women who go to the bar with their friends show more skin-surface area, act in a way suggesting that they are more sexually available, and in fact ARE more sexually available than single women, all things being equal. These discoveries surprised the researchers but did NOT surprise the Shark.

Lately the market has been reminding me of one of those prehistoric tar pits that would suck in anything that got near them. Or maybe one of those Black Holes in space that consume all matter.

I can't even imagine how upset the 401K crowd must be by now. I wonder if most people will ever stop contributing to their 401K's. If anyone had 100K in their 401K it would be down to 50K or less right now. So if your employer matches dollar for dollar you're down to your contributions and maybe even below that if you were "invested" more aggressively. So much for 8% per year right?

Rob.

I hope he is thinking hard about the feckless action he's taken in the first days of his presidency, about the poor choices he's made for leaders of his economic team - Goolsbee, Summers, Gethner, etc. - and that he now begins to show genuine leadership. As the woeful market and economic news illustrates, we can afford nothing less.

Mr. President, TEAR DOWN THESE BANKS!

Even if there is a stunning about-turn today, do you believe this market has bottomed out?

How's this for annoying...
I just tried to transfer some funds from my employer retirement plan (a fidelity 403b) from a gold mutual fund - which is up over 40% since Nov to some sort of cash equivalent or MM fund. NOT AN OPTION! What? No treasurey fund, cash reserves, whatever. It's like I'm trapped!!!!

No matter how much you try to be politically incorrect, market will prove you are correct

" No treasury fund, cash reserves, whatever."

You have to be kidding. Fidelity funds always include a cash option (eg, Fidelity Select Money Market)?

"It's like I'm trapped!!!!"

That's what I call having no fire exits. Look for the nearest window?

Just hit my $1.98 bid, damn!

Is this the time to enter fertilizers and food producers? COST and MOS? SDA or CALM?
Am I correct is not being able to chart Nestle on Stockcharts?
Peace from North Puget sound

Since they are firing workers anyway, in efforts to show they are doing what is needed to survive and get more tax payer bailouts, why bail them out? they are firing people anyway. let them go under. layoffs can no longer be used as scare tactics for money. liquidate and create 1 car company for U.s that will lead all green car manufacturing globally. if i were pres that would be the only solution i would entertain.

no more petrol sucking cars shipped or made for U.S market by 2015. if you want a petrol sucking car you can go to the used car market. there are millions of cars in almost new condition.

Can they nominate me for the car zar?

slw look like it's going up?

vanillabean - Good luck with your trade. Sorry I can't help, I don't know anything about WGW. You might ask Jock to pick his choice on a risk scale of 1 to 10 or something like that. When trading gold miners I always trade GG. I did hear someone say recently that ABX might be crushed in the games they play for the FED.

Below is a table of best performers since the 11/20/08 general market bottom, which are listed in the US. Morningstar industry groups are not capitalization-weighted but square-root of cap. weighted which avoids skewing towards the large caps.

Among the top 30 of the total 45 listed stocks, only ONE is a North American large producer, Agnico Eagle. Several of the South African seniors made that cut.

I would urge anyone who calls for nationalization to be specific about what angle of nationalization they are calling.

I'll be very specific: follow the example of the Swedish government when they faced a similar crisis in 1992.

It's been talked about for months, but Obama's courtiers have convinced him it's better to prop up their banking pals.

More background here on how the Swedes cleansed their system.

madgey11,

without turning this entire blog into a low-carb debate ill just post this:

1. yes water weight is lost quickly when you go lo-carb. this is good, not just because you are carrying around less weight, but because your lympahtic system and kidneys get a rest from having to constantly process and house all that extra water sitting in your tissues. you dont need this water.

2. yes weight training helps increase muscle mass and burn calories, but its not a simple calories in = calories out. you loose water weight at first w/ lo carb, but soon you actually loose weight as your body reverts back to its evolutionary instinct to run off of fat. as long as there is minimal surgar in the body you will burn your stores of fat off even as you consume fat.

3. access to surgar and refinded flour was not common until this century. even until after World War 2, humans consumed modest amounts of sweets. now its the norm and our bodies did not evolve to process this much junk. its a very new addition to our diets from an evolutionary perspective.

4. look at cultures that eat lots of carbs: italians (southern italians especially) who tend to be chubby, vs. cultures that eat lots of meat like the french or argentinians.

5. a diet is a diet. and nothing is perfect. you can loose weight going low-fat but its very very difficult and not healthy going back and forth weight-wise, of all the diets any sort of calorie restriction is the hardest to maintain and theres nothing taht says this is better for us.

its simple: do it yourself to prove people wrong that spout off the scientifically invalid junk: go as low carb as possible for 2 months, dont change your activities level much, eat steaks, veggies (non-root veggies) and dont be scared of butter. a bit of treasts or carbs are fine, its not the end of the world, its just be careful.
youll notice you will loose weight, feel better and your blood levels will look much better. the need for statins and other cholestrol lowering drugs will likely be discontinued if not reduced and this diet has very very beneficial effects on diabetics.

after seeing what adult onset diabetes does to people, and even worse seeing them tyr to starve themsevles eating low fat foods they only got bigger and needed more insulin. for the few who went low low carb, they often got off insulin and lost weight that made them feel much much better.

try it out, if not, dont bother listening to people spouting nonsense about good carbs and eating low fat. you need fat for energy, its what humans have lived off of for millenia, but the self test will be the most convincing way to go about it.

good luck!!!

Did a quick youtube of Paul Van Eeden. He remarked being long on Miranda Gold Corp.

Jay Taylor newsletter:

http://www.mirandagold.com/i/pdf/Jay Taylor Sep 2008.pdf

EDIT: Insert the link into your browser

Perhaps it has something to do with imminent options expiration. I for one sold covered calls with a strike at $7.50 so I hope it pauses long enough for me to keep meeeee precccciousss underlying SLW shares...

Trying to get to grips with Royal Gold as well. It's another royalty gold play like SLW.

From the Fool:

Of the company's 25 producing royalties, two of the most noteworthy mines are still ramping up to full commercial production: Goldcorp's (NYSE: GG) world-class Penasquito mine and Minefinders's (AMEX: MFN) promising Dolores property. An additional nine mines remain in the development stage, and the potential confluence of their transition into production while gold remains in this multi-year bull market is generating some excitement among investors. With a royal twist on the silver stream model employed by fellow Penasquito beneficiary Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW), Royal Gold offers Fools one more way to participate in gold's historic run BLAH BLAH BLAH...

So a multi-year bull market as Bill describes should be interesting for RGLD, as these development stage mines are ramped up to production.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.htm...

It seems that this is not lost on investors, as RGLD has seen a decent run up the last 200 days compared to its peers.

Of 208 Morningstar sub-industries, silver stocks are the best performing group, now up 137% versus the S&P 500's 6% advance since the 11/20/08 general market bottom.

Gold stocks comprise the 3rd best performing group at 93% increase.

The 4 worst performing groups are regional banks. The absolute worst, mid-atlantic banks are down 36% since 11/20/08

covered 1/3 of all shorts, let the rest ride. The CRB index is at its lowest point forever (well, since 2001) which is a proxy for inflation/deflation & major commodities prices.

Has the knowledgeable Fran6 commented on gold?

Grym,
Sure, look at Principal Life Ins Co., now Principal Financial.
There not just a dinosaur insurance company, they are a Bank by default and a huge player in the money management game that was designed to manage all the 401k accounts of workers that saved for their future instead of spending it for the now.
They just released earnings last Monday, revenue was down 98% Y over Y. That's no typo 98%. They even got TARP money from the future taxpayers.
Just try and get 31 years of your retirement contributions away from these huge insurance companies slash money managers. Not only are you fighting for a distribution of your account that has lost 49% of it's value in 8 1/2 months, you face a 35% tax penalty on the lump sum cash distribution designed by law to protect these managers of money. It's labeled "GATING", and it was put in place to hold off the baby boomer generation from taking money away from the soon to be revealed ponzi scheme.
It's a great business model when working people are contributing and going without, but when they start taking dollars out, instead of contributing, money managers have to figure out where they can find more contributors to pay you back what you have already contributed.
Warning......self labeled money managers, that now out number workers 100 to 1, have lived an extravagant and lavish life style on the backs of the workers that contributed for the last umpteen years, ie., they spent your fricken money, an sent you a fancy colored pie chart each quarter in return!
By the way, in hindsight 401k's are a joke for the contributor and a windfall for the managers of money. If I had it to do all over again, I'd never pay into a retirement ponzi scheme. Stop contributing to all 401k's, they are a fraud!
I won't go down without swinging, I welcome a good fight.

Fraud works, until it doesn't.

Don't they say plunges often happen from oversold levels?

I dunno about that McHugh guy. I signed up for his 30 days free and found it to be a whole lot of "Big move coming, could go either way" followed by "See, stocks jumped/fell 10%, just like we said they would". Just my opinion of course...

I took a long hard look at the Dow average in the 1930's last week, and to summarize: 0ver 2.5 years about 8 plunges (avg 30% down)/rallies (avg 20% up), always lower lows and lower highs.

bottom line: protect your capital

SLW finally hit my sell limit order at $7.48 for 1000 shares I purchased at $6.58 a couple of weeks ago. However, given the amazing run-up in silver overnight, SLW is still low relative to SLV. So I am thinking whether I should sell my SLV and rotate it into SLW. Maybe I'll wait for the November 20 low to break on the S&P 500, and then I'll do it (as stocks will be falling, SLW will keep underperforming SLV).

As for FAZ, my premonition was correct about it going much higher. Unfortunately, it simply jumped over my buy-to-cover limit order at $52. That's OK, though -- the more FAZ rises, the more it sets itself up for an amazing 1-day rally in financials, which can cut FAZ by 50% (which will happen with a mere 16% one-day rise in financials). I'll just wait. My portfolio is up today despite the market collapsing (thanks to UXG, SLW, SLV, and WGW), so a jump in my FAZ and ERY short positions is not that painful.

Amen re: the gold call. Anyone else take advantage of Bill's insight re: lithium?

"I expect that CLQ.V will be very heavily promoted to coincide with Judy Baker's presentation at the upcoming Lithium Forum in Chile and result in sharp price moves upward toward the end of the month, although that’s speculation on my part."

in at 0.11, out today at 0.18 (not being greedy here)

I know Bill's blog is not about him giving out "stock tips," but couldn't resist putting a few bucks on the table for this play. Nice call! Thanks Bill.

me thinks its the smart move...

fwiw, i have a friend who took a fairly scientific approach to simple vs complex carbs, i.e. measuring blood sugar at intervals after consumption, and found that eating brown rice vs white rice, whole wheat vs white bread, etc., had no appreciable difference in effect on blood sugar.

In other words, while it sounds plausible that 'wholer' grain foods, i.e. more complex carbs, are healthier, the truth is that many products considered such have the same effect on blood sugar.

Food for thought :)

"no more petrol sucking cars shipped or made for U.S market by 2015. if you want a petrol sucking car you can go to the used car market."

It doesn't matter much for Americans until the public can really afford new cars, and that might be a while.

IMO, Man's devouring of natural resources is a result of overpopulating the earth. The main problem lies in the victory of our success.

In the 30's, the gold price rose to 4.5 times the S&P; In the 70's, it reached 6 times the S&P.

If, in the current cycle, we merely matched the 30's multiple, that might take the S&P to 666 (Jeremy Grantham's notion) and the gold price to $3,000 (still well below Rob McEwan's expectation).

The chart in this article is well worth a gander:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/meisels/meisels0...

So it turns out, its probably better to graph the specific contract rather than $WTIC "continuous" contract, because contango injects an up-move at the turnover point which confuses everything.

Attached is the chart (from quote.com) of May 09 oil. This chart has a 7 day RSI, and it currently looks to be around 18. Last time it was down in this territory (at around $42, with a similar RSI), the contract rallied the very next day for about a week, about 14 points. I'm taking a nibble here.

http://tinyurl.com/az3gch

knifecatcher: Should you elect to go the CTAB route, be sure contact Bill before you set up your IB rollover IRA so as to avoid unnecessary complications. He'll send you a questionnaire to assess your risk profile and, if CTAB's services are appropriate to your circumstances, provide a special link to use and specific instructions to follow when setting up your CTAB-managed IB account.

ALOHA !!

As I have mentioned I got out of all insurance based products, in my case ANNUITIES, back in 2006. This is what I keep saying. The longer you wait in a crisis the less freedom(choices) and time you will have.

I quit contributing to my retirement back in 2001 and instead started to buy gold and silver as my retirement.

I am such an "anti-statist" ... meaning I trust government and banks the least of all. Insurance companies are right in there on my list. You are at RISK if you trust government to protect your wealth.

As this monetary crisis deepens the US government will move to block all exits in order to confiscate its citizen's wealth. Tax laws are easily changed to lessen any advantage of any retirement plan at a moments notice. Capital gains, SS/MED benefits and all other sources of income for Americans are open for confiscation.

When will people approach government from the aspect of GOVERNMENT TAKES! It does not GIVE unless it first TAKES! There is no free lunch! Quit wasting time voting for it!

GOVERNMENT IS NOT OUR SAVIOR!!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Increased my short position in ERY by 49 shares (all that was available for shorting at Scottrade) at $41.65, to a total of 449 shares.

America is not taking it's own advice cause the politicians figure they know better. Their reasoning: Japan didn't throw enough money at the problem quickly enough.

But if you look at the types of numbers out there in terms of derivatives, swaps, mortgages, the right amount is probably in the trillions. And trying to trickle it into the economy via 'stimulus', while politically palatable, is really undoable, and doesn't address the issue anyhow. If you expect this path to work, you basically need to throw the trillions at the banks directly, obviously less palatable.

But heck, if they did that, just threw the money straight at banks, it probably would work. It would devalue the US$ enormously, get rid of or at least paper over the bad assets, and life would go on, albeit from a lower point. What they are doing now just prolongs the time it takes to get to that lower point.

Kaimu,
Why are there differing prices for gold coins?
All one ounce .9999 fine -

Kruggerand - $1015
Maple Leaf - $1015
American Eagle - $1042
Chinese Panda - $1137
Australian Kangaroo - $1200+

yes fish oil is a critical supplement and it helps a variety of ailments.

fish oil and vitamin d are being understood now as two things that could save our health care systems millions if people took on a regular basis.

Number2son - Please elaborate. What changed? What will change? How is it different? Did the Swedes just get lucky?

Are you proposing we delist the banks, government assumes ownership and management?

But do they really make a fish oil that you don't taste in your mouth all day and night? If so what brand and is price a real issue in regards to quality ans effect?

Didn't see anyone post this yet. Another $8B fraud:

http://tinyurl.com/dl7pzo

goldbug58 -

Demand, scarcity, dealer/broker mark up, currency exchange rates, location, aesthetic appeal, choice of spot price ... perhaps a few more influence these coins' values.

i found it better to buy the high grade fish oil made from krill not salmon or sardines. no fish taste. and better to take with a large meal.

I think taking fish oil from polluted waters is dangerous, what, heavy medal and all. I think a better alternative is getting fish oil, ala krill oil from pristine waters near the cold waters of Alaska are safer and of better quality. It is available...while not cheap...taste good...in a gel cap.

thanks Grym, will check the book out.

I just sold the remaining 1/2 of my QLD position at $25.91. I only had 250 shares left, which were not going to "make me" or "break me." However, I figured that it is time to complete the switch in my portfolio from keeping ultra-longs to shorting ultra-shorts.

proud

The hardest part is figuring out how to make these people feel like they are not a prisoner in their 4 million dollar pent houses apartments.
I'm sure it is a challenge to deal with those feelings.
Maybe a congressional hearing will clear up some of the darkness associated with their feelings.

Fraud works, and pays a handsome profit!

goldbug - "Kaimu,Why are there differing prices for gold coins?
All one ounce .9999 fine - "

Those sound like pretty good prices if you want coins. Generally krugs are least desired so I'd take the Maple Leaf. I've heard of some counterfeit schemes lately, so beware.

So far looks like $7.50 usd resistance is transforming into support. good sign short term. but i am likely to exit my position on the next leg up.

Pookie, I prefer the Maple Leaf as well; I think the Australian Kangaroos are pretty too - but an ounce is an ounce, yeah? I noticed Krugs are the lowest priced at any online retailer, is it just that they are ugly or is there still something against S. Africa...?

I bought one of each US gold type-coin a few years ago in graded PCGS AU-58 (only grade I could afford actually) - to think you could actually get these in change at one point in history!

goldbug -
"Monex, the country's leading precious metals investment firm, is pleased to offer gold investors the beautiful, pure gold Canadian Maple Leaf...a legal-tender bullion coin known worldwide for its purity, refinement and beauty.

Since its initial release in 1979 as a pure, 24 karat gold alternative to the 22 karat South African Krugerrand, the only other one troy ounce gold bullion coin available at the time, the gold Maple Leaf has become the standard of quality against which all other bullion coins are measured. "

http://www.monex.com/prods/gold_maple.html

I've heard the Krug carries with it some apartheid reluctance.

namastesolar.com

their site is down. but private co., seems like the ownership has teeth inside washington. funny how its always who you know that matters most.

Krugs have a larger percentage of copper over silver than some of the other coins. Thus the orange tint.

Geithner backs away from bank bailout at last minute

This is what he took months to put together? Omigod! Obama, fire this clown NOW!

"The $787.2 billion economic recovery bill — to be signed by President Barack Obama on Tuesday — dedicates $8 billion to high-speed rail,..." "and more is coming" "$1 billion more for high-speed rail in each of the next five years"
http://tinyurl.com/d2kylj

At least this part of the taxpayer debt bailout sounds worthwhile. Except for the trains, the investment in infrastructure and jobs will be spent in the U.S. In the future, perhaps the U.S. could even manufacture the engines and cars here.

And we need the infrastructure improvement, even the Amtrak Acela trains we have rarely reach their 150mph rated speed.
"Right now, Amtrak's Acela train is high-speed in name only. The Acela travels between Boston and New York (including its stops in Providence and a few other locations), on average, at only 61 miles per hour. For travel between New York and Washington, the average is 79 miles per hour."
http://tinyurl.com/bongzg

Many times California seems to be ahead of the rest of the nation. If this isn't cut to balance the CA budget, it will be a good thing. The 220 mph HSR system trains are faster than the max 150 mph Acela trains.
"The same day Obama swept to power, California voters passed Proposition 1a, which will establish a 220-mile-per-hour HSR system between Sacramento and San Diego. The state says the network, which it expects will be powered by renewable electricity, will reduce its dependence on foreign oil by more than 12 million barrels per year..."
http://tinyurl.com/c8acbv

I think it will take a great deal more than $8-$9B to modernize rail in the U.S., but it's a start and it sounds like the right thing to do. It's certainly a better investment than bailing out corrupt bankers, failed insurance companies and arrogant auto execs.

Yes, 22K isn't 24K. My understanding is 24K is four 9's pure gold and considerably softer.

Yes, there are finish options like polished dies or burnished surfaces, metallic content and weight would be my concern unless shine or polish float your boat and you think the exterior finish makes the object worth that much more. The 1oz bars cost slightly less.

When trading Eagles, you pay no capital gains tax.

Please DYODD on all of this.

MOS and TRA were my favorites at one time, but they've moved a lot higher recently, if you consider that TRA is now at 2X its 21 Nov low, and MOS at $40 is about 80% higher. Good earnings for both, and tis the season for these companies, but I personally would be more comfortable buying lower than where they are right now, jmho...btw, CF Industries trying to buy TRA which moved it from about $14 to $20 roughly a month ago.

A friend of mine works for Namaste Solar doing installations in Denver. From what I understand it was started by just a few guys and was a pretty grassroots start-up. It is now an employee-owned operation. I don't believe we are talking fat cats here.

I have been screaming like a psychopath for years about why no one seemed concerned with building legitimate high-speed rail system! I am selfishly hoping that a Chicago-St.Louis high speed rail will be one of the first to be built (since it will likely be heavily utilized for the 2016 Olympic games, where St. Louis is predicted to host some events like "american football" matches!)

Hidden in the Palosi Stimulus Bill was the compensation limit of 500,000. for the huge bankers, as well as a limit on the pay packages the top 20 executives for the companies that will receive TARP1, TARP2, TARP3, TARP4, TARP5, TARP6, TARP7........................TARP101. Did any of that get mentioned in the now famous Obama stimulus speech?
Missed the speech, but I can see that wall street isn't very happy.

barrick looking ugly today, hasnt been able to move the past month with gold almost $80 higher. volume was anemic too.

GG and NEM looked better but the candlesticks left much to be desired.

SLW looked like a real start today. but otherwise im not impressed w/ the gold miner's action compared to gold. but considering what happened to the rest of hte market i cant complain. i wonder if its the broader market weakness holding back some gains in gold shares, or if their inherently poor earnings and business models (esp. barrick's) that are doing that for them.

earnings announcements this week will give some interesting clues as to how the market will take these outfits going forward. if the prices drop on bad news while gold is still moving higher i think the miners will be as an entire group (save a few very specific choiced like gg, slw and aem) be at best an outperformer of the market but not a great way to play gold.

lets watch...and hope im wrong.

Billy:

I have been screaming like a psychopath for years about why no one seemed concerned with building legitimate high-speed rail system!

Unfortunately, it can be summed up in three words.....Environmental Impact Study. These things take years to complete and are expensive. Review the history of BART's extension to Millbrae, CA. or any other proposed project around the country.

We just have to hope someone cuts them off before they can give the banks 50 or 60 Trillion. Who will ever put their money in these banks again anyway? I never will!! And I'll never take a loan from any of these corrupt banks!! If everyone cut up their credit cards and withdrew their deposits from these banks, they'd evaporate overnight. That's how we should fight back.

BAC, C, JPM, WFC, UBS, Barclays, GS, MS and any other crooked banks you want to add as well.

Everyone across the world needs to cut up the cards issued by these losers and pull all of your deposits immediately!! The little people can play Hard Ball too!!

Rob.

I get the feeling that's not good...

I'm currently taking brand called "Nature Made" — 1200MG gel caps, 4 per day and they don't leave a bad taste during the day and not during the night if I take them earlier than dinner. I do take after a meal.

Thanks for the alternative brands which I will try. I don't remember what the first one I took was called, but they were really fishy tasting during the night. However, I would be willing to suck on a dead fish all night to get the pain relief.

Anyone whose read my posts knows I am a skeptic and it was no different in trying these. It still seems too good to last, but this is the longest time feeling this good in years. There were days when I could hardly make myself get up from bed (and a lot of night trips to the john which I dreaded).

I love a good fish dinner, but that is not enough to do the trick. Hey, I'm able to do pushups again!

Up, as Rob McEwan revalues his purchase of control of MAI to C$1.00/sh. from 0.33.

http://tinyurl.com/b4477b

Complicated, "what if" structure, seemingly to allow for "checkmate" against any countermoves by Hochschild, MAI's 51%
"partner" in the San Jose silver and gold mine.

I don't know if this will have wider significance for the juniors' sector, as most managments and funders lack McEwan's deep pockets AND his determination and agility as a deal-maker.

Fox

Hopefully some of the red tape can be fast tracked if transportation is tagged as a Federal priority. Civil planning requires a great deal of foresight (which our government over many decades has ignored in favor of quick fixes) but that certainly doesn't mean it ain't worth the trouble.

But I know, its probably just the naive eternal optimist in me that would think the government could use taxpayer dollars to build something of value.

chicken

I don't know the answer to that.
What I do know, you can NOT make a businessman out of a conman no matter how hard, and how long you beet IT.
Here is a link to the gov press release on the new conman compensation cap.
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg15.htm

ALOHA !!

This comment was posted today ...

Kaimu,
Why are there differing prices for gold coins?
All one ounce .9999 fine -

Kruggerand - $1015
Maple Leaf - $1015
American Eagle - $1042
Chinese Panda - $1137
Australian Kangaroo - $1200+

The difference comes from the different costs involved to fabricate/ship etc. and the investor demand due to scarcity/popularity.

OFF THE LIST
Not all gold coins are the same purity and weight use alloys to make them harder. I actually believe Krugs have less gold content, but I have not been buying gold coins lately so maybe they have changed that.

As I have said I bought mainly British Gold Sovereigns because they are the most accepted and world known gold coin in the World. I believe if you go to Wikipedia you will see they were first minted back in the 1500s. In fact I can say the US Air Force uses these coins for their fighter pilot survival kit, knowing full well these coins are accepted anywhere even Pakistan and Iraq.

British Gold Sovereigns come in different sizes but I mainly own the 1/4 ounce size. Most of them I own are pre-1933 and many were minted in 1800s. By now I doubt lots are available in the early dates. I do believe it is hard to find any sovereigns at all. When I was buying them a few years ago I never asked for the older coins they just gave them to me without any premium at all, I have many dated prior to 1850 ... some even look mint condition at no premium. As I have said I started this years ago when they were in great abundance and nobody wanted them!

The reason to buy 1/4 ounce is because they are easily portable and will be more affordable and exchangeable than a tola or kilo bar would in public.

There are various layers of gold ownership to consider and each has a purpose.

To me it is very sad that my own government has forced me into this position to protect myself. I would prefer not to be troubling myself with monetary survival scenarios, but at this point it seems none of us have much choice in the matter. The US government and US Banks and the US Dollar seems intent on destroying all wealth, because in the end that is where this is headed. For me the sooner this all collapses the better ... I have visions of a more CONSTITUTIONAL and HONEST government once we rid ourselves of the current corrupt and immoral rulers. Really, in the end our politicians will be no different than Third World thugs!

ALL OUR BEST THINKING GOT US HERE ... Or is it ALL OUR BEST VOTING GOT US HERE??????

ALOHA !!

Okay ... "Some people want us to publish our
serial numbers but again, we simply do not do this. What would a person
have to compare our list to??"

It is hard for me to believe in these days of rampant fraud and mistrust that CEF and others like them would not want to go the extra mile to show that they have an auditable "semi allocated" or "fully allocated" list.

"What would a person have to compare our list to?" PLEASE mate ... how about GLD's bar list? HA!!

I am not saying CEF is not trustworthy, but I go with companies that have management that acts like they owe shareholders the benefit of the doubt. That management understands shareholders apprehensions and worries about risk involved when assets are entrusted. ITS THAT SIMPLE!

Once again let the chips fall where they may, but at least do more than just helter-skelter dive in without any due diligence. I sleep better at night that way ... It may not guarantee losses or failures but it goes a long way to mitigating such scenarios. There is no 100%!

What was it Reagan said to Gorbachev....oh yeah...Trust but verify.

Did you folks see the last minute spike transactions on DIA, SPY, XLF, IWM, etc?

Look at the volume on any 1 day chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IWM#symbol=IWM;...

3:59PM:

XLF 12.3M
SPY 48.5M
DIA 1.8M
IWM 5.1M

----

UCO straddles: approaching $6 now, really unbelievable trades. Last Friday the max. move required (posted) was 15.40%. Joked that it was just a matter of hours for UCO. Today's move: -17% (these are updated at http://straddles.nexalogic.com, plus IWM, SPY, and others)

http://tinyurl.com/b7wun5

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Barack Obama has approved a significant troop increase for Afghanistan, Pentagon officials told CNN Tuesday.

Pentagon officials said Tuesday that President Obama will increase troops in Afghanistan.

The new troop deployment is expected to include 8,000 Marines headquartered from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, as well as 4,000 additional Army troops from Fort Lewis, Washington.

" In fact I can say the US Air Force uses these coins for their fighter pilot survival kit, knowing full well these coins are accepted anywhere even Pakistan and Iraq."

Does anyone need any more proof that gold is money?

EDIT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ad3b750-fd27-11dd-a103-...

Go to Drudgereport link for the full FT article.

bigwad - It's important to note that earmark (pork) distribution by federal agencies to state, county, or other governmental branches aren't necessarily traceable to the final destination, and is part of the earmark disclosure debate. It will be interesting to monitor how this is accomplished through the promised process and if it is transparent in actuality. IMO, the TARP distribution process hasn't satisfied the definition.

"Recovery.gov is a website that lets you, the taxpayer, figure out where the money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is going. There are going to be a few different ways to search for information. The money is being distributed by Federal agencies, and soon you'll be able to see where it's going -- to which states, to which congressional districts, even to which Federal contractors."

http://www.recovery.gov/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-needs-up-to-30-bi...

Looks like Bob Lutz stepped aside (quit) just as the liquidation train hit the station. That's a million jobs, folks!

Congress hopfully won't nationalize a la Leyland. That would be worse than bad.

Jock, I don't think Minera handled this well at all from a small investor's perspective. Several press releases about the cash call and a plunging stock price had me wondering if McEwen had sold his position. Relieved to discover he has not, and his response is basically "Up yours" Hochschild.
However, its still worrying that the Minera management was saying that there was an understanding that there would be no cash call - sounds like they are either naive or too interested in pursuing the Azules copper project and didn't put enough effort into monitoring Hochschild's management of the mine.
While I understand that McEwen must operate in his own interest, I hope he wasn't complicit in this.

"The Obama administration remains officially opposed to control. Mr Geithner last week said: “Governments are terrible managers of bad assets.”

Yea, If anybody does, Geithner should know all about this.

Chickenpookie
It bad and sad. Three of my daughter friends were going to attend university in Boston starting next year. Now they are going state supported UMASS. One of their parent lost job and UMASS is cheaper. This mess has lot more effect on people’s life than what we are seeing

Your indifference is inspiring :)

this is a sincere compliment.

The more stock I buy, the smaller my account total becomes. Perhaps if I begin selling, my total will increase?

Sorry for the double post, not sure what happened...

Strangelove, We're all socialists now; NOBODY wants to be Austrian about this !

McEwan said on BNN that the cash call was sprung on MAI by Hochschild (majority JV partner to MAI on San Jose) as a maneuver for forcing MAI to sell out to them. Otto of http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/ (who knows both companies, and is based in Hochschild's home country of Peru) agrees.

This tracks my experience in latin America where majority shareholders usually trample minority holders (and local law generally permits this).

I believe that the cash call came as a complete surprise to MAI management. AND I admire McEwan's "cojones" in doing whatever it took to rescue MAI.

FWIW, I could always be wrong ....

Pessimism isn't even close to there yet. We are still hopeful! "Hope" is here, we are hoping for a recovery. I am hopeful, hopeful that our citizens will pull their head out of the sand and stop watching american idol.

Stimuli is a joke, 4 mil jobs saved or created at the cost of 165k? Malinvestment and no one read the whole bill!

World economy is not going to pull out of this for a long, long time, we are on the back side of peak credit. Lost decade anyone? Wait Japan is getting ready to start their third one and we are starting our second... (bottom must be here)

L shaped recession, wait, depression or Japan 3.0 times 100. Especially with the shenanigans that politics is playing.
Next? Protectionism, followed by beggar thy neighbor, debt defaults and utter deflation! K cycle WINTER???

Nothing governments can do to stop that, it's just math and exponents. Nothing more.

Good luck but I hate to see people read that good things will come, yeah a rally but I suggest everyone spend a bunch of time reading how this started, why/how and what next?

To much optimism out there for the bottom to be in... S an P 600 and change before major rally to a nice fib. The bottom won't be until 2011 give or take a few months. Cut the number above by half give or take 50 for the bottom. That is a bold statement but the bottom is close is even bolder...

Read the headlines about the SP is going to record it's first ever NEGATIVE EARNINGS!!

Or financials will recover? They are insolvent and must be nationalized, bankrupted, CDS neg'd, Assets sold to the LOWEST bidders!, debt become preferred at low div payments and new investors become common shareholders through investment companies only - no major investors allowed new shares must be restricted stock, teach banking a lesson for irrational exuberance; that 4-8 'trillion of cash on the sidelines can now enter the stock market as it will never get there unless ipos or secondaries come around (dont' see that). Confidence will be restored, trust will be back ,Also add separate banking from investing from insurance again... but nevermind - I might be dreaming...

Global trade is dead, people are getting angry and protectionism is starting... Eastern EURO nations are in bad shape, wait till Latin America nations start to bleed... CRE will bleed more so than Residential as the speed of the implosion will be amazing.

the EURO may not make it, we can almost lock in the Pound for it's demise, and the Yuan would be in real bad shape if it wasn't pegged to the USD. Their export model is dead as exports peaked.

40% of the debt created in the past decade came from securitizations, that market will not come back. Traditional banking and government creation of debt can't offset the difference for velocity of debt. Some banks are open for business but no one wants to borrow, there is so much over capacity it will take months for it to work through the system.

All the above is my opinion but we are all entitled to our thoughts.

Set your stops and keep the hope and your change... I'll set my stops.

'Corporate Boards That Do Their Job' Washington Post
http://tinyurl.com/deevlf

Posted by 2nd_ave: "I'm waiting for him to proclaim that C and BAC will see $50 again. I don't know about C/BAC, but banking will one day return to business as usual."

Don Coxe thinks that the model of large investment banks is broken beyond repair, and they won't be able to make huge money the way they did through securitization for decades. He even went as far as to say that the recovery this time might happen without the large used-to-be investment banks, pulled by the regional "bank" banks. Even if the large banks survive and in several years start generating 1/2 of the profit they made in 2007, their shares might be so diluted at that point, that the price of each share will still be 1/10 of what it was in 2007. Betting on the share price of large banks returning to even 1/2 of the peak price is not realistic, IMO. There are many other stocks that have been decimated almost as much as the banks (e.g., ESLR), but which have a solid business model and that will almost surely by up by a factor of 4 in a year or two.

Shoot 2nd, ended the day on the wrong side of my range. I like your aikido analogy. I was fortunate to play Rugby for a US national team that toured England and Wales. We were bigger, stronger, faster, and cockier, (Americans of course). And promptly got our butts kicked 12 matches in a row. The point...Our biggest asset is NOT being one of the big boys. We can move in and out of positions quickly, at our discretion, without driving the price down. Large players are also limited to holdings that have a lot of liquidity due to this. That doesn't apply to us.
Tomorrow...Probably a long play in SPY with a tight stop.
I took a big jab in the nose today, but my favorite boxer was Sugar Ray Leonard...Stick and move, man.

Our very own Dr. Doom. :) I've read all that stuff too. I read too much sometimes, I think. Inside I need a story to explain why things are not going well. It helps me feel that the world can be understood and danger avoided, if only I am informed enough.

Picking the bottom in the S&P is a tough thing to do, at least for me. The S&P chart doesn't look very happy. Looking back, I see the $SPX MACD had a crossover in late December but prices didn't follow through. The crossover just told us that the slope of the decline changed. The rally we had at the end of Dec was on anemic volume. I guess that's what Bill means when he says traders are on the sidelines waiting to commit. Where is the bottom? "Reply hazy, try again later."

Its no fun to imagine a world that's much worse off than the one we currently inhabit. We all hope things get better soon. Who wants the buck to crash, multi-trillion dollar deficits, banksters to get paid huge bonuses and get away with economic murder, with our leaders standing for hope and change appearing to be bought and paid for?

But while we wait for the revolution to sort that stuff out, in the meantime, how about trading things in an industry with a happier looking chart than the S&P?

I see 3 of them. Precious metals, healthcare, and technology. Energy isn't bad, but it's kind of going sideways right now. With this in mind, I ask myself "Dave, why is half your portfolio in energy stocks?" Well its about peak oil, but - there I go substituting what I think will happen for what's really happening with prices. And I end up working so much harder to make money. Or worse, losing money. Why do I do this? Well, dammit, I want to be right! Right about peak oil. Gah. I think I should go do some portfolio adjustment.

Slowly, slowly I am learning to trade in areas where the odds are in my favor. As I look back at the last few months, buying the dips in an upward-trending area has been so much more rewarding than trying to do that in a down or even sideways trending area. I've done great with gold & silver. That just about makes up for my losses in energy in 2008. But not quite.

Long ago I read an investment book, and in it they quoted a study which concluded that great investment managers didn't pick great stocks, they picked great industries. 80% of returns could be attributed to being in the right sector. Only 20% was attributed to successful stock picking.

I just now remembered this.

It has more to do with social equity.

photo - i don't know if i was gutsy enough to short CRE (SRS), but i was lucky enough. the trick now is (1) knowing you're right but (2) knowing that the erosion impact of a double ETF is a ticking time bomb.

this isn't easy.

ALOHA !!

There is a three fold unwinding effect ...

1-50,000 consumers are lost from the "consumer economy".
2-Government assumes more liabilities via unemployment benefits and welfare.
3-Government assumes more liabilities due to lost payroll tax revenues.

All three are US Dollar negative and when you add in the delayed time release capital destruction you get the added influence of burdens on the FDIC and PBGF ... Retirement and pension funds will suffer. I never planned to retire anyway!

This is an exponential liability for the US government and US TAXPAYERS will eventually pick up the tab, since the US government will sell more US DEBT in order to pay for the unemployment benefits and welfare that keep US citizens complacent in order for the current politicians now in power to remain in power so that the few elite at the top will also retain their power(the apex of the power structure). US TAXPAYERS suffer most so that the few elite at the top benefit most. What is insidious about this money is that future generations who can't even vote yet will pay for the cost of this debt during their lifetimes while those who so casually passed this debt onto future generations will be out of office and/or dead and buried with no liability or consequences for their actions. If the cause and effect were "real time" those who passed STIMULUS and TARP 1 & 2 would be strung up in the streets by angry mobs and we'd be watching that on CNN right now!

Future dating and delayed time release capital destruction are the secret weapons of a fiat monetary system. Eventually the entire system collapses under its own weight like any other ponzi scheme ... but that's just EMPIRE!!

http://tinyurl.com/celujc

some random items for Wednesday

Saw your comment a couple of days ago that you could not plot Nestle on Stockcharts. Did a little checking, problem is that it is a foreign ADR which trades on the OTC Pinks, NSRGY.PK, I was able to plot it on Yahoo, but I too prefer to use Stockcharts.

Problem at Stockcharts is they do not have data access to Foreign ADRs, it would be an additional purchase cost which is not included in the current package and not sure they can buy just the data for one stock.

You could try sending them a symbol request at,
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=support:fe...

Although I would suggest sending them an email, thru the support tab page, you'll have to make a case as to why they should spend extra money. Identify the symbol, trading liquidity, importance to all traders not just yourself, etc. If there is enough interest or importance they are usually very good at purchasing additional data.

Last night a friend called to gives me a heads-up for the "Frontline" special on the financial crisis on PBS.

I went there for the beginning —

Opening speakers, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd. Narrator giving the comments of Henry Paulson to congressional committee, "Unless we put $ billions into these banks within days, our entire economy and the entire global economy will collapse."

This is like letting Herman Göering and Adolph Eichmann lead the Nuremberg trials.

Went back later — Barney Frank still babbling nonsense.

The sad thing is this is what will go into the history books and it will clear the way for more and even bigger scams like this in the future.

CP,

"Now I can understand why John McCain wasn't himself during the election, he probably really didn't want the job..."

I agree. In fact I think the Republican Party saw this as a futile run for them and decided to let the Dems have the problems for the next four years.