Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., Jan. 20, 2009

Impressive early market rise in the European bourses; equally impressive drop. Are they waiting for something special today?...

Spot price up ~$20 in last 30 minutes. Can the new team fight off internal forces to maintain the permitability of NAK's Pebble & NG's Donlin. Time will tell all, but I have my worries.

USD and Gold are not enemy today...instead they got married :-)
both are in uptrend now: USD up 1.7%, GOLD up 1%

to 80% of allocation...

Comments from another planet (just kidding).

Bill,

You are almost always more optimistic than I. Where you see Obama's providing hope, I see a supreme politician who is able to play on mass emotions by using the historic political symbols — Lincoln and FDR — in a very skillful manner.

It isn't that I want him to fail, it's just that here in Illinois, I saw him duck and dodge (like a good basketball player) avoiding any controversy which could later go against him.

You see a glass half full and I see the wrong glass being examined. IMO, extending the bad policies now in play to solve the economic mess is a distraction from reality. While how much more is being debated savers are being penalized and ignorance and fraud are being rewarded. And they say they need to restore trust.

To restore trust a real leader would face up to the problem and the causes of the problem.

Here in my city we have been depressed since manufacturing became our chief export (beginning in the mid 1980s). Our tax base is down to the average citizen's real estate (unsalable) and sales taxes (diminishing due to lack of income and confidence). Charities are in desperate condition as first time recipients are added. Job quality is pathetic and even part time work is getting tough to find. Many have been spending their 401(k)s.

Our local leaders are still in denial and pushing tourism and downtown rejuvenation! Our first shopping malls are ghost towns and now some of the newer ones are losing the big box stores like Circuit City and CompUSA, etc.

The upside I think is that the problem has spread to the whole nation and someone may get serious attention by default.

My long term problem as been in expecting unions to fight and ordinary citizens to express more outrage — nearly 20 years is too long for me to remain hopeful. I recently read that the younger people who had few or no investments and still have their jobs see absolutely no problem. When it gets up close and personal views will change immediately.

This does NOT mean I think there is no money to be made in the markets. I managed to close the year essentially even, by more than doubling my trading over any other year in the past forty. Your site has been very helpful with that.

Dear 2nd...
you're right...that's sometimes how my wife and I are doing :-)

How about the talking heads start 'panicking in' people right about now with examples like the following:

>NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Johnson & Johnson said Tuesday fourth-quarter earnings rose as cost-cutting overshadowed lower sales of drugs facing generic competition, and it forecast flat 2009 earnings from last year.

Another good news story for the day (sort of).

Italy's Fiat SpA and Chrysler LLC are poised to announce a partnership as soon as today

Someone switch off the woes of the banking industry and let's be a little more upbeat today.

Nice cars, Fiats. Alfa's too. Sexy and Italian.

Thing is, Ford makes a similar product here in Europe, and they're (the sporty hatchbacks) are increasingly popular with the young. But if the American public doesn't want to drive Ford hatchbacks, they're not going to drive Italian ones either.

What's the plan?

is to be slightly ahead of the curve, and to be right-> that's how they hook the loyal audiences...they get fed the breaking financial news, the audiences watch/listen, money flows where it's directed, and the transfer of wealth occurs effortlessly as it has for centuries...it's an amazing picture to visualize in one's head...

The US alone imports less than 10 mbbl/day, if there's already 80 mbbl at sea that's 8 day's supply for the US alone. I read this is about 7% of the capacity of the world's VLCC tanker fleet, so if the story about all the demand for tankers is blown out of proportion, then what does this tell us about oil prices and why are we having smoke blown up our butts about it???

Reports about speculative tanker storage don't seem all that incredible to me...

http://www.tankerworld.com/news/i74801/Morgan_Stan...

Standard & Poors should've been downgraded and de-listed a long time ago.

The rise in gold this morning coincides with sharp remarks made by Professor Roubini at a conference in Dubai today and the audience was most likely wealthy Arabs with a strong affinity for gold...

U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is “effectively insolvent,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”

“The problems of Citi, Bank of America and others suggest the system is bankrupt,” Roubini said. “In Europe, it’s the same thing.”

http://tinyurl.com/9j24vn

There's no compelling evidence that Roubini is wrong. While attention is focussed on the big ones, every weekend brings the death of a local or regional bank. AS well, the effect of exposure to commercial real estate hasn't been plugged into the equation yet.

possibly yet another example of the traders need to watch price and volume action and once again (the examples are endless it seems), discount to next to rubbish the financial media's evaluation......

There used to be a time when a sector was down over 5% overall that you could say it was getting "hammered". Par for the course. Nevertheless, it's as if alternative energy were in its death throes. Sad.

Maybe the Obama rally starts when he takes the oath. Waht time does it all go down?

Anyone gambling on AIB or BCS?

F is still looking pretty good to me.

If DXO gets in the 1's again that could be attractive since there's no way Oil can go below 30 a barrel.

Rob.

for every drop in the financials we are seeing less and less of a drop in gold and gold miners. while still being held back somewhat by the general market malaise (HGU/GDX were much higher last time gold almost touched $855)this relationship appears to be weakening.

the more it weakens the more it becomes a self-fullfilling cycle of out-performance attracting more funds that chase momentum and the hottest performing asset classes.

this is all the more interesting in the face of USD strenght.

but im still hesitant, having been burned by going long after these sudden gold price spikes only to end the day/session back down, or the shares down even more than they were before the spike started. i wonder if the market doesnt fully buy this sudden USD strength, hence gold moving in anticipation of a return to devaluation tendencies. im still not fully convinced the USD is ready to plunge again or that gold is ready to zoom. yet.

Love the commentary Bill. We get a once in a generation or two leader and he is criticized for his political skill. Huh?

That's why we hired him. It takes a lot of skill to intelligently outcommunicate the lobbyists and bring the power of the people to bear. We may be great people but we have the attention spans of hamsters. It takes a leader to keep us on task. At the same time it doesn't take much to scare the heck out of us either, so a positive approach is bound to be beneficial.

I'm encouraged by our new attitude. I hope we can stay on-task.

Looks like any Obama rally will start from a lower base....

The emperor is not wearing any clothes!

Spielberg just referred to Obama as more than an American phenomenon, "It's an international movement."

as a gold investment...it's sitting on the 20 day and looking like a breakout candidate.

If I recall, the last big market rally we saw began with POG quickly rising with the USD like today, but I don't remember bonds selling like this... 10yr up 150 basis points right now...

I'll bet they rally into their close, a starting shot for a NY rally... After all, the banks aren't going out of business now are they???

Craig, I’m encouraged also.

Expectations are very high (perhaps too high).

I expect incremental improvements, not a one month or one year wonder turnaround. Let’s just get on the right track and realize there will be slowdowns and blocked passages on the way. But there’s light at the end of that tunnel!

The good news is the new President listens, seeking solutions to the challenges of our time. He has also surrounded himself with intelligent individuals with different perspectives. This is a HUGE difference from the departing administration.

Go America!

shark - "Today is the day we get rid of George Bush. Any time you can get rid of a Bush, particularly a son-of-a-Bush like this Bush is a good day for democracy and for human freedom."

I was beginning to wonder if democracy would cease to exist at the hands of Bush/Cheney/congress.

Nothing like getting right to the point...

C's core problem is that it simply doesn't make money in any of its businesses
except Smith Barney, which it is in the process of selling. Any consumer-related businesses are lumbering under the weight of rising credit costs and reserve builds.

http://tinyurl.com/7lg39w

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Re: AGU.TO (AGRIUM)Purchased At
Submitted by TradingMyChips on Tue, 01/20/2009 - 09:27. #7428 (Posted in reply to this comment (#7358))

Seadog:

AGU.To is the Canadian symbol(you are looking at US symbol)

Pivot points :http://www.nationalfutures.com/pivotcalculator.htm
Check this site for more info,includes pivot calculator and formulas.Also includes a Fib calculator.I use excel to watch my fav. symbols.

All the technicals were screaming "buy me".I am also a big Elder fan !I believe will add another "bullet" to your clip.
Todays projected prices are listed below.good Luck

PIVOT R1 R2 S1 S2
AGU.To 42.48 42.47 43.53 41.97 41.43

These European banks are just getting demolished right now. This huge moves undoubtedly create some market chaos (I.E. forced liquidations) in other positions by those getting caught with positions in these banks. The fact that U.S. markets were closed yesterday while this plunge in European banking got into full swing makes for even more abrupt action on the open.

The British pound is getting walloped today as well - has anyone looked at a 10-year chart of USD/GBP? Wretched! Maybe I will be able to afford that trip to the Olympics in 2012 after all.

Gold seems to be sending a clear message today - there is no way you can get out of this mess without blasting the currency presses. I think we are finally at that inflection point where gold has to rise against ALL fiat currencies.

"The meaning of today, the reason it's such a beautiful thing is NOT because Obama is black. This is the mistake many make, and in fact, it's inherently a bit of a racist notion. What's beautiful about today is that we elected him, we voted for the best man for the job, regardless of race, of creed, of place of birth. But there's one more thing that's beautiful about today..."

Shark - I have to dissagree. The meaning and thought in my mind is spot on but the reason has nothing to do with the best man for the job. Our country is semi-divided and we can thank Bush for that for making partisianship more of a priority instead of getting hte job done. Yes Obama has the opportunity to get us on the right track, and for reasons this has Bill "hopeful" and full of optimism.

I myself will not be hopefully until everyone's hope manifests to dispare. You see we are faced with the largest money bubble since TGD. Around ever 70 years or so, the interest bubble builds and breaks. The people wanted "change", it didn't matter who was the candidate against the incumbant party during this election. Sad but true, HC would of won too. We as a nation sought out a different path to take. Social economics is ruling the day. New Zeland did the Exact opposite that we did, they went from being a socialistic party rule and elected a conservative after nine years of rule from the liberal party.

Simple fact of the matter is we aren't going to get any change at all. Until the whole system is changed, there will never be change. I am hopeful for America, after all I took an oath to serve this country very proudly. That is something I will always have pride in, giving something up for a cause bigger than yourself was an honor. Granted that might not be everyone's cup of tea and that is perfectly fine.

We have many, many more problems in this financial crisis, we could say we have only witnessed the tip of the ice berg or we are in the middle of the 3rd inning. Because of all these problems - this "hope" trade (trade is what i will call it because we can't grow food on polluted soil) will fizzle and die, very very fast. We can "hope" for the market to go up, that is all it is but more importantly the the opportunity to invest won't be until everyone loses hope and we have nothing else but dispare in the air. That won't probably be for another year or so.

My guess is we will have a one term persident and the next election could/should see a third party candidate get much, much more respect.

Obama's approval rating is already at 70% or more, there is only real way to go down. It could skim up some but GHW had a 90% during the start of the Iraq war. Goes to show how social mood can be influenced but eventually it comes back to reality.

Seems that us old guys are left to maintain some relevant contact with reality amidst all this euphoria, eh Grym? I also fully agree with Bill that traders trade prices and so long as that can be done in somewhat an orderly fashion, why shouldn't we?

Where my thinking tends to lead away from Bill's is in determining just what IS a fair price and how to determine it given the current state of upset we find things in. While that thinking is confined only to investment purchasing, I think most would agree that any scaling into long term holds today means that you accept the risk that corrective market actions could literally halve prices (or worse) IF the market is permitted to heal itself. That said, it appears that for the near term, the market condition will continue to fester and worsen as every signal from Washington and other seats of power point to utilizing the same failed thinking which got us into this to begin with.

I'm not optimistic about Obama because he is just as married to the rob Peter to pay Paul philosophy that the Congressional majority is. But my larger fear is that more lasting damage to the Nation occurs from his failure to use his Veto pen on some of moonbat Pelosi & hobbit Reid's more radical spending plans.

FST at 13.25, DB at 21.90, watching techs selectively.

The big man is talking tough...

POG is holding up nicely, considering the DOW is down 200 on the day...

Banks are getting hammered across the board. CARA-100 Royal Bank of Canada is now yielding 6+%. Bank of Montreal yielding nearly 10%!

What are people's thoughts about Canadian Banks? They are more than profitable, and have defended their dividends quite nicely thus far...

has ended in Washington.
People heard the new leader's speech.
They wave their 12" flags and cheer and huge.
Hope of change has been sowed in the second class minds.
It will be a good day for the rich and greedy HB&B.
Business as usual, lets have a good clean fight.

New Day
We gave him Market at 8100
And let’s see where market is a week from now
Brought some FAS at 9.70

swissr - Here it is (price of gold):

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldw.html

why is this a mistake?

'Spielberg just referred to Obama as more than an American phenomenon, "It's an international movement."'

That's good. He's optimistic. I had heard the plot for the upcoming ET 2 was a surly teenage ET swearing and fighting and finally incinerating earth, starting with Wall Street. Wasn't Spielberg among Bernie's victims?

In addition, DJIA (-2%), SPX (-3%), COMP (-3.5%) are not tracking each other.

not agreed with that.

Already showing his allies that the US is prepared to following international law and honor the Geneva convention.

Critical to reaffirming security ties with 'old' Europe.

Started position Jan.19/09 @ 32.28

NOTE: EX-DIVIDEND Date is JAN 22-09 ie .50

This link provides a summary of comments from guests (experts ?) on Canadas BNN network http://tinyurl.com/527zc5

Thanks Chicken, recall the POG chart from earlier. Bookmarked them both. Some new things to learn

I got a little birthday present for myself today: the sell limit order I had for it at $1.68 was executed at $1.73 (for the shares I purchased at $1.48 last week). The "money pump" WGW keeps working! :) Placing a buy limit order for the same number of shares at $1.48.

has the inauguration luncheon in full view.
All those well connected politicians are gathered in front of fine china with finer silverware, crystal glasses filled with their favorite booze.
I don't see any porta potties anywhere, excellent camera work on the photographers part.

If all the top soil is polluted, why would we expect your plot of land not to be?

Oh - remember when George Bush got was sworn in for the first time. Sounds like a lot of the mumbo jumbo feel good rhetoric.

This time we are in more of crisis than 2000. We still haven't even deleveraged from that crisis.

I'm beginning to suspect more bad real estate asset news is just over the horizon...

>I'm not committing more than I can afford to let sit for a couple of years

My wife is bankrolling my gambling habit :-)

But seriously, this is the opening salvo of a 30 year plus savings plan. The state pension my wife is on is only good for the first 30 years of retirement. After that, well I guess government haven't figured that one out yet.

Plenty of time to learn from my errors and what a classroom to learn it in!

As I've heard elsewhere, even a monkey could make money in the 2001-07 bull run. Now it's the real thing.

Here's the link to the Swiss Consulate in NY.

Any of you fellas wanna bail out without coughing up that 100 000 grand and come live the good life, give em a ring.

;)

http://www.eda.admin.ch/eda/en/home/reps/nameri/vu...

down to $849, this is a critical point that will mark the start of a new up-trend or just a small upward blip on the way back down.

gold moving back towards where it started the week, but gold stocks still looking good, even in spite of broad market weakness. if gold moves back down below $842 in short order i suspect this was just a head fake. if it holds and consolidates in this area things may heat up quick.

surprised the HOU isnt up more but still,

Someone forgot to tell Wall Street today was about hope.

If we close below S%P 817, I think we'll be heading for a retest of November.

Rob.

long FAS 9.07
don't try this at home...

Is down only 19% on the day!!!

It's interesting that many thought that Obama stumbled on the recitation of the swearing-in ceremony when in fact it was the Supreme Court Judge who fumbled the reading of the presidential oath. Obama kept his cool and waited for the judge to read the passage correctly before proceeding. I hope his customary poise can withstand the difficult times ahead.

Looks like an across-the board sell-off - SU below 19 on early volume spike and then trending lower all day (with oil up overall I dont see why the energy sector is taking such a hit, though; SU was downgraded earlier with new target of $17).

What techs do you track?

Swiss cuisine is some of the very best I've had, much better than some of the junk passing as food in the US...

I'm no TA and I really like silver and slw but it sure looks like a head and shoulders formation for slw between 12/17 and today.

"It's interesting that many thought that Obama stumbled on the recitation of the swearing-in ceremony"

I think maybe Barack was preparing to duck a flying shoe. He jumped the gun reciting the judge, throwing him a curve ball.

http://tinyurl.com/8l2eya
InfoSciTex
"Tomorrow the company is expected to launch its “Green Energy Machine” or GEM waste-to-energy conversion system, a unit that fits on the back of a truck and can shred three tons of trash per day—including paper, plastic, wood, food, and agricultural waste—and turn it into a synthetic gas mixture which can then be used to fuel electric generators or building heating systems."

Initiated a small short position in FAZ. The sharp peaks in ultra-shorts are unsustainable (just look at the SKF chart for the past couple of years). Anytime XLF rallies by 16% in a day (which can easily happen, as we know), FAZ will fall 50% on that day. XLF is 12% below its November 20 low now, but FAZ is 50% below its November 20 high!!! Over time, the 3X bear ETFs will decline no matter what, so shorting them in small amounts is a guaranteed way to make money.

Royal bank (RY.TO; RY.NYSE) appears to be cliff diving today. BNS appears to have stabilized somewhat.
Canadian banks are not being spared.
Nice dividends, though.

That's what I'm betting on..followed by a decent rally that lasts a couple of weeks or months. Enough to lure Joe Investor into thinking the worst is behind us. If we don't see a bounce here and soon, I'm hosed. I follow McHugh's work; will be interested in how he interprets todays awful price action.

"what would banks failing look like?"

a lot like a disaster

When i sell and book a gain, while the pps drops afterwards, i am reminding myself for every percent it goes down, i am actually earning future gains, since this is less % i have to make back on the way up on my next buy vs if i held on the way down.

Just trying to teach myself the psychology to reward improved trading behavior.

Example:

Loss Gain to break even
-5% 5.263%
-10% 11.111%
-20% 25.000%
-30% 42.857%
-40% 66.667%
-50% 100%
-60% 150%
-70% 233%
-80% 400%
-90% 900%
-100% Game over

I'm impressed with the PMs today. They have held up well in the face of unrelenting pressure. GG and ABX are positive at the moment and slw hasn't dropped all that much. Spot slvr seems to be hanging around 11.16

www.technicalindicatorindex.com

Fl - I imagine the mega banks have the serious international "arrangements" for one thing and if they fail there are global consequences. I recall the international disfavor when Lehman was allowed to go under.

with the last administration?

I wanted some at this level but just missed it.

And took their money with them... Looks like they stopped screwing with POG too.

Better a small loss now,than a bigger one later/When everything looks good ..look out below.

Seadog;Looks like you will get it a lot cheaper!!

not crazy about the weak close.

Does that mean our only option is to cover all their bad debt?

I guess one thing Obama will have to figure out is where to draw the line on who has to take a loss on bad bets and who doesn't.

And then he'll have to convince us the line is in the right place.

Why should I be forced to take a loss when I make bad market bets? How big do I have to be before the treasury will buy my debt?

Or maybe it's more about my capital ratio. If my debt to capital ratio is a certain percentage(like the big banks) then would I qualify?

It's not like the treasury would discriminate against me because of my size would they?

I'm just trying to understand who this plan is supposed to help.

Rob.

Thanks for that post. I was exaggerating a bit on being hosed- my accounts are set up to protect them from myself in some ways (which I obviously need as evidenced by my FAS trade today LOL). It was just a small position with funds I've scalped off of TNA in the past few weeks.

Hope the rest of you had a better trading day.

$SPX - 12 advanced and 488 declined today. NYSE and NASDAQ were just as bad.

IBM seems to be swimming against the current. Maybe tomorrow will be positive.

http://tinyurl.com/IBM-EPS

edit: 3 minutes too late. Ignore.

1) "I guess one thing Obama will have to figure out is where to draw the line on who has to take a loss on bad bets and who doesn't."

We the people take the loss, because we disappointed the banks by consuming too much and producing too little.

2) "Why should I be forced to take a loss when I make bad market bets? How big do I have to be before the treasury will buy my debt?"

To have your debts forgiven, you must be powerful enough to elect a powerful governmental appointment.

3)"Or maybe it's more about my capital ratio. If my debt to capital ratio is a certain percentage(like the big banks) then would I qualify?"

No, refer to #2)

4)"It's not like the treasury would discriminate against me because of my size would they?"

Yes, refer to #2)

5)"I'm just trying to understand who this plan is supposed to help."

This plan is for you, without it you wouldn't have a pot to piss in. Be thankful. ;)

I didn't have much time to keep an eye out today but just checked out the forward curve and was surprised to see that the FEB crude contract was nicely in the green while the remainder of the curve was down a few bucks.

I think that it was Vindo that stated two weeks ago that C and BAC would be below $3 and $5 respectively. An amazing call; Bravo!!! Chicken got me out of BAC at 12.95 for a breakeven trade. Thanks again! Now what? Do we buy or will the government eventually own the banking system?

DJ US HOT STOCKS: IBM, Woodward Governor Active In Late Trading

U.S. stocks ended the day sharply lower Tuesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 4% to 7949, the S&P 500 down 5.3% to 805.2 and the Nasdaq Composite down 5.8% to 1440. Among the companies whose shares are actively trading in the late session are Cree Inc. (CREE), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) and Woodward Governor Co. (WGOV).

Cree's fiscal second-quarter net income jumped 62% on strong sales of light-emitting-diode products, helping results top analyst expectations. Many chip makers have predicted large drops in sales as the market for computers and other consumer electronics soured amid a sharp drop-off in discretionary spending last fall. But after topping views, Cree's shares rose 6.1% to $17.50 in the after-hours session.

IBM's fourth-quarter net income rose 12% on improved margins in most of its segments, as the computer giant issued a 2009 earnings view above analysts' estimates. Shares of Big Blue rose 3.8% to $85.10 in post-market trading.

Woodward Governor's fiscal first-quarter net income rose 6.9% as the company posted continued growth in sales despite the weak broader economy and unfavorable exchange rates. The maker of industrial control equipment said growth continued though it was slower than in previous quarters and it backed its 2009 views. Shares rose 4.5% to $20.79 in late trading.

Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) updated its fiscal first-quarter views and put the new estimates well below expectations. The company said it now expects earnings, excluding items, of 15 cents to 17 cents while the Street was looking for 22 cents. Revenue is expected to recede 25% to 30%, the chip maker said, more than the 15% decline analysts had been expecting. Shares slipped 6.2% to $17.61 in after-hours trading.

M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) shares jumped 12% to $9.60 in late trading after the home builder said its new contracts for the fourth quarter increased 5% from the prior year while the cancellation rate dropped to 31% from 49%. However, the builder also said its deliveries declined 47% and the average sales value of its homes on backlog was down to $247,000 from $312,000. The company also said it had amended its bank loans.

Regular Session Movers:

Financial stocks plunged Tuesday, with banking giants Bank of America Corp. (BAC, $5.10, -$2.08, -28.97%), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC, $14.23, -$4.45, -23.82%), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, $18.09, -$4.73, -20.73%) and Citigroup Inc. (C, $2.80, -$0.70, -20.00%) all hitting multi-year lows amid a number of bleak warnings from analysts and as U.K. bank stocks also fell. Bank of America dropped to an 18-year low, while Wells Fargo hit a 12-year low, Citigroup hit a 16-1/2-year low and JPMorgan fell to a seven-year low. Stifel Nicolaus cut its investment rating on Bank of America, which Friday reported its first loss in more than 15 years, to hold from buy. Several other analysts cut estimates on the banking giant.

State Street Corp. (STT, $14.89, -$21.46, -59.04%) reported a 71% drop in fourth-quarter net income and projected its 2009 results will be flat, worse than analysts had been expecting. The Boston-based custodial bank warned investors that some obscure off-balance-sheet assets could leave the bank at risk of heavy losses in the future. State Street's troubles also weighed on shares of fellow custodial company Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK, $19.00, -$3.96, -17.25%), which moved up its quarterly report to 5 p.m. EST Tuesday and preannounced its Tier 1 capital ratio is expected to have improved to 13.1% at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 9.3% as of Sept. 30.

Regions Financial Corp. (RF, $4.60, -$1.47, -24.22%) swung to a fourth-quarter loss as it took a $6 billion goodwill write-down and sharply raised loan-loss provisions, although non-performing assets fell slightly amid the continuing disposal of problem assets. Results missed analysts' estimates and ramped up worries across the mid-sized and regional banking sector, whose decliners include PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC, $22.00, -$15.54, -41.40%), Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI, $6.00, -$1.62, -21.26%), Sovereign Bancorp Inc. (SOV, $2.00, -$0.44, -18.03%), SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI, $15.07, -$4.87, -24.42%) and Zions Bancorp (ZION, $13.33, -$3.16, -19.16%).

Shares in Ireland's major publicly traded banks tumbled Tuesday following the early retirement of Bank of Ireland PLC (IRE, $2.31, -$1.76, -43.24%) Chief Executive Brian Goggin, and as U.K. bank woes re-ignited worries that the Irish banks' bailout plan may not be enough. Allied Irish Banks PLC (AIB, $1.52, -$2.53, -62.47%) also traded lower.

U.K. banking stocks came under renewed selling pressure Tuesday after Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS, $3.33, -$7.52, -69.31%) said Monday that mounting impairment charges could push it to a 2008 full-year net loss of up to GBP28 billion ($39 billion). Investors also sold shares as they feared that the U.K. government's new plan to help the banking sector is an admission of how unstable banks have become. Barclays PLC (BCS), Lloyds TSB Group PLC (LYG) and HBOS PLC (HBOOY) all declined sharply in recent trading.

Shares of home-building companies and real-estate investment trusts traded lower Tuesday as concerns about the financial sector weighed on the stocks. "It's not likely the REITs can escape the carnage going on in the banking sector," RBC Capital Markets analyst Richard Moore said. REIT decliners include Maguire Properties Inc. (MPG, $1.85, -$0.60, -24.49%), iStar Financial Inc. (SFI, $1.57, -$0.62, -28.31%), CBL & Associates Properties Inc. (CBL, $4.77, -$0.90, -15.87%) and FelCor Lodging Trust Inc. (FCH, $1.43, -$0.43, -23.12%). Home builders down Tuesday include Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV, $1.61, -$0.29, -15.26%), Lennar Corp. (LEN, $6.78, -$1.07, -13.63%), Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH, $1.16, -$0.13, -10.08%) and D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI, $6.07, -$0.71, -10.47%).

AspenBio Pharma Inc. (APPY, $1.30, -$6.33, -82.96%) shares hit a three-year low after the bio-pharmaceutical company reported preliminary data from a clinical trial for an appendicitis diagnostic test that was less favorable than a pilot study had suggested.

VSE Corp. (VSEC, $25.35, -$21.09, -45.41%) said late Friday it received notice from the U.S. Army that its proposal to continue work under the Army's Rapid Response program wasn't in the competitive range to receive a new contract. The company said it was surprised and disappointed by the outcome and that it has requested a debrief from the Army.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD, $2.00, -$0.29, -12.66%) agreed to sell assets that formed the basis of its hand-held business to Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM, $34.14, -$1.88, -5.22%) for $65 million. The money-losing chip maker said in July it would sell its hand-held and digital-television businesses as part of a restructuring that has resulted in several rounds of job cuts in a weak semiconductor market.

Shares of consumer-electronic retailer Best Buy Co. (BBY, $27.23, -$2.11, -7.19%) fell as JPMorgan said investor concerns on the liquidation of rival Circuit City Stores Inc. (CCTYQ, $0.01, -$0.02, -65.71%) will weigh on the stock in the near term.

Energy company ConocoPhillips (COP, $45.69, -$3.69, -7.47%) approved a lower 2009 capital-spending plan, saying it would cut about 4% of its work force and book goodwill impairment charges of $25.4 billion amid falling commodity prices and a drop in the worldwide economic markets.

Brean Murray said Dendreon Corp.'s (DNDN, $3.58, -$0.67, -15.76%) trial for Provenge, its prostate-cancer treatment, will likely disappoint when released in April. The company moved up the release date last week because it had hit threshold of deaths earlier than expected, which Brean Murray said affirms its fears that Provenge won't meet goals for reducing death rates, as highest percentage of deaths should come from late entries into the study.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
January 20, 2009 16:58 ET (21:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 04 58 PM EST 01-20-09

I grabbed BAC at 11.20 for its dividend, the next day the dividend announcement came through, and the rest is history. Due to volatility I didn't set stops, and here I am at 5.10! It's a small position, but it still hurts. Meanwhile, my bigger UYG position has been destroyed. I did not see this mess coming last week! Kudos to anyone who did. Wish I had been reading Chicken's comments when BAC was at 12.95!!!

The question "Now What?" is definitely on my mind. I can cut losses and go lick my wounds for a few weeks on the UYG and BAC trades and learn my lessons once and for all with respect to speculation on shaky securities. The banks sure seem insolvent. I don't want to see Nationalization wipe me out!

Thank you MyTradingChips.

If I may be so bold how do you use this in your trading inconjunction with Elder, ie set up and trigger?
Cheers

A question for the fundamentally-minded....

I will be looking at BAC and C as potentially being monster longs for at least a short trade just based on the beaten down nature of these two fine stalwarts of our just-bygone era of excess.

My question is, do you think these baby's could really go out of business, or won't Obama give these banks fiscal mouth-to-mouth?

Also, does the failure and de-facto nationalizations of the U.K. banks last night signal greater problems still to come and is that why our banks sold off more today?

"I grabbed BAC at 11.20 for its dividend...Due to volatility I didn't set stops, and here I am at 5.10!"

I truly don't understand this logic... I am sorry Fazeli, I don't mean to put you on a spot, and heavens know I harp on this more than enough but still... It's the rule number 1, number 2, numbers 3, and if you scatter it among all other rules 15 more times, you still won't exhaust its vital importance: Control your risk.

I just hate to see this unnecessary pain

Stay away from BAC, until they pay back their govmt. loans, I think. Meanwhile there's plenty of other great equities to choose from if they don't go broke too. Get back to basics, raw materials will always be needed if anybody wants or needs to create wealth the old-fashioned way, the trick lies in good timing...

Disclosure - I still have a small position in BAC which I consider dead money probably for another year. I'll be sure to post if/when it starts coming back.

Vadym: Agreed. I have next to no excuses for that level of stupidity.

In the past, I have been bitten by conservative and even aggressive stops, but 6-7% index swings resulted in 10-12% stock price swings that would first hit my stops, and then reverse.

I took the vast majority of my losses on Friday, and today! Once I had swallowed Friday, I was unsure of which direction to head. At that point, it's not a "stop loss", it's a "I lost 30%, now what should I do".

Maybe you can help me learn: pretend you blew it and lost the first 30% in 1.5 days. Then what? How do you mitigate risk at that point? Do you then say "I have tolerance for 5% more" and set a stop loss there? A leg down and 1 PM, 3 PM, 3:30 PM, or 3:45 PM rally (which we've seen many of) can totally reverse that. Of course, we've seen more down markets at those inflection points.

The remaining 30% was lost today, so in 2.5 days, I lost ~60% in my small BAC position! Controlling risk is much harder in reality than in a model I've found, but clearly I'm not 100% on the ball all the time.

BILL, THANKS FOR YOUR COMMENTS THIS EVENING.

I'm thinking that the safe bets are on ABB, HSC, JEC; companies that make infrastructure work.

much of the world partakes of Obama's "New Wine", while Wall Street dips in their back pockets........imagine that.....

Johnny
I understand what you are saying. For me I watch candlestick pattern and that pattern in an up move is not bullish. Could be short term bearish. the TSX chart has a gap to fill at 32.78 (although it might not be that signicant as the gap is not there on the US side, because NY was closed on Monday). I am long , maybe should have sold some calls like Bill just mentioned. But I am not on to that game yet..
hopefully I will learn that side while sipping a Kalik with Bill and his boys in the sun.

Looking at the chart of USO, FYI I am a noob at chart reading. (It's what the kids call gamers who won't last more than a minute in a FPS {first person shooter). using the standard timelines for both stochastics and RSI (disclaimer: I don't fully understand either), but it looks like the full stochastic is crossing below 20 right now, continuing a pretty clear pattern, as in will drop another few % before a nice gain. RSI (7) at 28.78 also indicates we are close (ie, 5 days or even NOW) to at least a short term bottom.

NYU, about selling and buying lower, its so hard to gauge these fast almost erratic markets, I should have sold out of my USO position i bought at 32.50 when it was at 30, to buy at 28 (my limit order for tomorrow, although for some reason I think we could see 27.75 or lower -->can't watch the market all day, am happy in at 28 if that's not the case), but since i believe very strongly that this will trade above the 32.50 in a moderate time frame, i sat on it, and now can only lower my cost base to say...30.50 at best.
such is life.
i was toying with the gains vs. loss theories a while back and have a pretty cool spreadsheet made up if you're interested. It made me stay away from the 2x leverage etf's, that's for sure.

Just driving home this morning and out blasts Bobby Dylan on the radio. Driving, listening I thought here is the song of today's time, very appropriate, the last stanza quite encouraging. Bring the cheats to account and if your system doesn't then bring the system to account. Go America!

"The Times They Are A-Changin'"

Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin'
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.

From Minyanville:
http://tinyurl.com/9ps3nx

An attempt to get approval of this bill has already happened. It was attached to the TARP bill but obviously failed. The issue at hand is to raise as much funds as fast as possible to cover the TARP funding from those "responsible"... not homeowners, not mortgage brokers, not banks or investment firms... traders may end up paying.

The proposal is to tax .25% on the dollar amount of each buy and sell transaction... 1000 shares @ 70 would generate a tax liability for the investor (.25% * 70,000) and another taxable event would be triggered when the investor sells the position... what happens to scalpers if this gets approved.

Among the reasons for support:
Encourage buy and hold
Discourage speculation
Other countries do it... and a few others.

Curious to say the least.

From a perspective of technical analysis, I would say that USO (and any leveraged ETF) is a much different animal as your run of the mill stock of a company. The reason is that by its very nature, the assets underlying a leveraged ETF like USO are changing.

When you buy the stock of a company, you can look at its assets and liabilities. I.E. they haved 3 production facilities, 200 retail locations, X amount of cash on date X, 5k employees, etc. The value of these assets is subject to change with the variables of doing busines, I.E. customer demand, interest rates, economic conditions. But they are not changing into completely different production facilities, the retail locations are still in the same place, the employees are the same employees, etc.

But with an ETF such as USO, the assets are actually being sold and replaced with different assets (different futures contracts) as they are sold off and new ones are purchased.

Essentially, you can look at a historical chart of USO, but at any given time the price represents a value of completely different sets of assets, right? This holds true for any leveraged ETF. So if you are not charting the same thing, what are you really charting?

It first goes back to what were the original parameters you set for the trade. Traditionally, your stop is that point at which the reasoning for entering the trade is negated. Once the dividend announcement came,the stock fell through your stop, that negated the trade. Actually, since the reason you got in was for the dividend, once that went up in smoke, GET OUT!

To stay in the trade you have to have additional reasons and new stops. In financials today, the only possible reasons are technicals, because they ain't makin' money anytime soon. Looking at the charts, there is no support. Maybe you'll get a "dead cat bounce, but BAC has Countrywide attached, and God knows what that brings, never mind the counter-party derivatives that may still be on, in, and around their books. IMHO-find something else, cut your loss, chock it up to tuition.

Chinese unemployment could hit 30 year high!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive...

The figures that they calculate is the URBAN rate, does not include the rural areas for unemployment. remember government numbers are usually fudged so they will actually be much, much worse.

I lived in both OZ and NZ for a decade plus. At least now I can hold my head up around my Aussie and Kiwi friends. New Zealand in particular has a habit of putting smart women in charge (2 Prime Ministers so far). Been away a few years now...perhaps I would no longer be called a Sheila in "SINNIE"?

Asia
http://tinyurl.com/a8qvjq

EU (not open yet but Futures down)
http://tinyurl.com/7j5rux

Hoping they all close up in a V pattern vs an /\ pattern

Vadym:

Yeah, I can see where you're going with your logic and mentality. I can't say I disagree with it. But I also can't say it's simple to implement.

I thought I could articulate my logical deductions, but there's no point. The question I was asking was the second "what do I do in this situation in order to improve my trading skills?" I don't believe that my question was akin to "pretend you're sawing off your leg inadvertently..." There's something to be said about realizing, too late, that something hasn't gone your way, but still having the option to mitigate FURTHER risk! I believe you answered it as best as you know how!

I don't expect anyone to tell me, with any certainty, how BAC will behave in the next few days or weeks.

For those of you invested or interested in USO, this blog entry, titled
"How Contango Affects Crude Oil ETF's and ETN's (USO, OIL, DBO)" might be of interest.

http://tinyurl.com/82sfgj

are just naturally fades.

I never said it was easy to implement. In fact, it's the hardest thing to do - which, in my mind, only confirms it's the right thing to do. For me at least.

I hear you Chicken (re: Bad News).

As much as I do not enjoy listening to Kudlow, Peter Schiff was on CNBC tonight and commented that at close today the DJIA/Gold ratio is the highest it has been.

Is this just another historic stat or does it lend to future support for POG?

Also, is Obama going to give a State of the Union? Will he break the trend of the past newly elected presidents? Maybe this will lend support to a rally. Either way, I would really like to see him give one.

At the end of the trading day today, the buy limit order I had for WGW was executed at $1.48, replacing the shares that got sold in the morning at $1.73. I am now placing a sell limit order at $1.68 for these shares. Up, down, up, down... :)

Looking at a daily chart of the S&P500, the only possible positive thing i can find is that a line drawn from November lows to todays lows runs parallel to a line run across the highs in the same period. Thus it looks like an up trending channel.

Oh wait, I see a potential (albeit very pathetic) attempt at an inverse head and shoulders forming.

Awe, what the heck, I'll post it for a good laugh...

How's that for reaching and data fitting?

There isn't one..so that means you are only playing the technical side. And I don't see any technical setup that attracts me yet. Go to a chart of RY on Nov. 21 buy the TOP of that candle with a tight stop for a daytrade. Try that trade when one sets up.

Let's see, their HQ is in Arkansas and the new secretary of state is also from AK..... I'll bet WMT gets a new set of trade deals in their favor soon.

Fazeli, stops, we all have or still do struggle with this. My answer would be to set an uncle point, mentally or resting stop, and be ruthless in its execution. I prefer mental stops, but you have to be disciplined.

Be ruthless in its execution.
Be ruthless in its execution.
Be ruthless in its execution.

Off with his head said the King.

trade size is less than 2% of my total equity. Nuthin should be more than 6% initially.

Few months ago we were at a friend house for dinner, both works at STT for over 25 years
I was told to buy STT; it is very cheap and will double in couple year. I said no interest to buy and hold any bank, trading purpose I might do it
I just got called from them, crying. They have been wipeout in STT. Since they are working there and know the bank good they did not expected this. Now they think it may go to $5 within year if situation does not improve
Question here is it is very hard to predict for people who are knowledgeable. Right now market is guessing game. One who guesses right can make killing. And flush the fundamental and TA to toilet

One of the Country Exchange charts Bill didn't post this morning is Iceland's:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=ICE...

View it in the 5 year frame.

Down 93% from its high achieved July 20, 2007.

I don't know if Iceland has a mutual fund industry geared for retirement investing, but if they do, and like the home bias (i.e. overweight) that most "balanced" mutual fund investors worldwide face, I cringe at the carnage that so many hard-working, decent folks must have suffered during the last 18 months.

Another, larger, market of note is Ireland:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=ISE...

Down 75% during the last 18 months and, during the last few days, losing key support and heading down God-knows-where.

Greece is another market in serious trouble, breaking down the last week:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=ASE...

There's only one way to get these markets turned around. Joe Plumber is not going to lead. Zero interest rates will allow the big players to reduce their leverage costs, and clean up their bad books, and when they are ready, they will reenter at criminally low prices at which time all markets will lift-off, then the amateur traders will put their shoulder into the effort pushing it further up, and then, finally, the media will jump on board, berating Joe Plumber for achieving negative real rates of return in his/her savings and bonds as inflation reappears. When Joe jumps back on board, enticed by glossy brochures, rising envy, and a sense of self-worthlessness, the markets will lift one last time, the big players will exit, the top will be reached, the markets will crash, and Joe will lose his savings again ... rinse, lather, repeat.

What kind of financial system is this? I'll give you a hint: it starts with a "c", ends with an "ism", and it's not "capitalism". It's called cannibalism.

There's got to be a better, more equitable way....

one must have patience, do his work, control risk thru correct entry/position size, etc. And not listen to the news or others who have their own agendas/issues. Unless your friends are on the BOD, it's unlikely they would be privy to the "news". On the other hand, STT has traded sideways since the fall while the SPX rallied roughly 25% in the same time period. THAT should have been at least a flashing yellow light.

STT has just about capitulated. RSI 7 day is 10.23. Max pain is 45 for Feb so there's some upward pull there at some point. I'm trailing 1.66 buy stop.

GL

Fazeli,

Yes I too still have problems with the selling, you have to be ruthless with mental or mechanical stops. I can't watch the market much right now so have to go with hard stops with a little wiggle room and perhaps not for the full position, ie two stops one a little lower than the other. If it bounces I'm still half in but if it really tanks I'm all out. I've often gone back and looked at a year of my trades / investments and over 75% of the time that was the only winning strategy, yes there were a few that I would have or did sell at the very bottom. But overall my best strategy has been to plan my trade and trade the plan like a machine, I loose a very high percentage of the time whenever I break my rules.

The other thing I try to do is value what you have today, ie mark to market each time you evaluate your portfolio, daily weekly monthly whatever. What you've got today is your current capital and thats what you have to protect and grow. What ever happened in the past, is in the past.

Most people are very concerned in tracking what they paid for a stock and what percentage it is up or down. For virtually everything in my portfolio I couldn't tell you what I paid for it or what my current cost basis is. (I would have to get into the records to figure it out). But what I keep track of is whether the higher probability is up or down, I then add or reduce accordingly.

Another way I look at it is to pretend I don't own the stock, do my DD and decide I won't touch this stock with a ten foot pole, at this point just way to risky, betting all in on a pair of 3's, well that would pretty much convince me I should reduce or liquidate my position. Then start looking for a better low risk / high probability trade with the current capital.

Just some other ideas, as for BAC I don't follow it or have any ideas, Good Luck with whatever you decide to do.

mikede, If you have a strategy that works for you then you are right to stick with it. My 2 cents is just that. I watch gold and silver closely and am gaining confidence in them as they seem to be holding up well, today for example. GG, ABX, FSY ended up, Slvr > PAS & MVG ended up. SLW was only down 0.23 (I really only trade GG, SLW, SLV -0.05) I thought that was impressive given the DOW was off 332.

I wish you good luck and trading!

In any event I'm an American USAF vietnam era veteran, a patriot and watching Obama become our 44th president was a thrill. It was a very happy moment for me and the glow has not diminished.

Do not worry though as it only involved $1 billion that will soon be amply replenished through TARP 2, TARP 3...etc...

General Motors plans to invest $1 billion in Brazil to avoid the kind of problems the U.S. automaker is facing in its home market, said the beleaguered car maker.

According to the president of GM Brazil-Mercosur, Jaime Ardila, the funding will come from the package of financial aid that the manufacturer will receive from the U.S. government and will be used to "complete the renovation of the line of products up to 2012."

"It wouldn't be logical to withdraw the investment from where we're growing, and our goal is to protect investments in emerging markets," he said in a statement published by the business daily Gazeta Mercantil.

http://tinyurl.com/64d7op

nemo- I believe you. I have no axe to grind either. I just think sometimes we come across the real thing and spend too much time looking for/waiting for signs it's anything other than what it is. A blind date that works out. A competent, understanding boss. The perfect job. No way, right? Well, it happens every day. As far as I know, I have no particular talent for reading people, but I'm not often wrong. A jury of peers is not often wrong. The American public, collectively, is not often wrong. I know that in general, hope is not a strategy, but once in awhile, hope IS a strategy. You have to be pretty far gone to know that, but most of us have been there at some point in the past. What hope does is ignite the will [to live, to change, to give a damn].

Oh 2nd. I believe him. As a matter of fact there was a reprint of an article on Boston.com yesterday that interviewed him in 1990 when he became the first African American/caucasian to head the Harvard Law Review. It was quite prescient and impressive. My concerns are more with the embedded interests. On one thing I do disagree. I think the idea of collective wisdom is over rated. The bell curve doesn't lie.

tbt and gold up when market down 5%, different from november, bad sign that reflation may not work.
i would legislate the invalidation of any credit default swaps other than those legitimately purchased to insure against default of an obligation owned by the purchaser. banks that bought 30 fire insurance policies on one house would be out of luck. that may not be constitutional but it will take 2 years to be determined in the courts, the crisis is immediate.
explain how gas is up 15% since 1/1 while the market is down 10%, and crack spreads are going through the roof. inflation? im buying refiners. gold and tbt in that order, interested in your thoughts on this.

Schiff was on Jim Puplava's FSN podcast this weekend. I enjoy listening to this guy. He makes some good points re: bigger government and more intervention not being the solution to the problem.

>Anybody pick up some NY Times shares today???? I didn't because the business model just doesn't make any sense....

What, not even if Carlos Slim was to make NYT available on millions of mobile phones on his network?

Advertising over mobile networks, sounds good to me.

Look at the fusion of mobile and pc happening now. pc sizes down to 8 inch screens. Soon everyone'll have something resembling an oversized blackberry. Rupert Murdoch can't be wrong. He bought up WSJ and is going to scrap the subscription (when, I'd like to know) in favor of advertising revenue.

Slim still pursuing the deal?

I say rather the Israelis staged their assault on Gaza when Bush was focused on packing up his china and Obama was looking at color swatches and picking new drapes. (kidding about the drapes)

I'd say very strategic of them. I don't think the timing was an accident. Isn't it interesting how the whole operation fit neatly into the space between the two regimes, timing it for the maximum possible level of American distraction. Hats off to the strategic planners of that op.

I'm not approving, mind you. Nor am I disapproving. I'm just saying it was strategically well executed.

Submitted by swissrobinson on Wed, 01/21/2009 - 03:20. #7658 (Posted in reply to this comment (#7608))

"Just like the Israeli's. Quitting their campaign for a US Presidential inauguration. How polite of them. I wonder who decided on that?"

A bit of current events from an American who lives in Israel:

Israeli elections in less than four weeks was the precipitating factor that caused the government to act. The incumbents wanted to have a chance at returning to power. (Israel is the ONLY democracy in the Middle East.)

8,000 missiles have been shot from Gaza into Israeli cities in the south since Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza three years ago. At the time Israel forcefully uprooted nearly 30,000 Israeli farmers living in Gaza. (Gaza is some of the richest farmland in Israel.) This was intended as a first step toward implementing Oslo Accords.

I live in Nahariya in the north. Two weeks ago three rockets were shot from Lebanon into our city. True, no one was killed, however for days afterward you find yourself keeping an eye out for the nearest bomb shelter.

After 8,000 rockets enough was enough and the incumbents knew they had to act or watch from the sidelines as the next administration acted.

I think we are on the same page.I don't believe that the world can print this much money without huge inflation as always it is only a matter of timing. Good trading

Totally agree.

And not, in any way, to minimize America's essentially role in the very existence of this country, however I think if America had committed the $7 Trillion to independence from oil a) the Saudis wouldn't have been such major contributors to every radical Muslim group threatening to cause trouble to the King and b)Iran would be nothing more than a boil on the world's hiney.

CP,

I don't think there is any way to accurately anticipate what will happen because too many factors are unique today. Protecting with stops is my only tactic since my retirement account won't allow options and I have found the short and 2X ETFs unreliable. I've been tempted by SKF and SRS, but my current situation is totally defensive right now. TBT was a non-starter too.

I'm on jury duty for at least the rest of the week and it's a bit like when I gave up smoking. Even though I'm not a day trader, I watch the markets regularly.

2nd_ave, nemo,

Understand — Yes!
Believe — When/if I see the promised results.

So far (economically) I see no "change" in sight or even in mind. DC will be run by big money — always has, always will.

I could say talk is cheap, but all this talk is going to cost us (and generations to come) like never before.

Nobody has the clout or the guts to do what needs to be done, IMO.

I'd like to be proven wrong, but experience and history paint what I'm seeing.

As for the American public — have you forgotten the run-up to Irag invasion? Gung Ho! All the way.

People are very suggestible, and the media is 24/7. Especially gullible when someone is saying things they already believe and things they wish for. A litany of what is wrong and promises to fix are an easy sell. Doing it is a whole different thing.

Wall St & lobbyists are still in control.

Grym,
That is so true. The expectations on this president is very huge. And the circumstances will require Obama to brak away from the other Democrats,

Does he have the guts to do that ?
So far, quite a few appointment have surely been made based on inputs from the behind the scene Democrats.At least. that is way it looks like to me...

Decided not to wait for an answer
Cover my FAZ short that I sold short yesterday @88 for 78.35 for a quick profit of close to 10 dollars per share. Wish I had the guts to buy more..

Bill ,

I am hearing lot of chatter ( this was even when dow and s&p had reached the peak of this bear rally ) on a few blogs about the next big wave 5 about to occur. I heard it again on Bloomberg talk radio.

While the targets varied, the folks calling the shorts were clear that the november lows will be taken out.

The targets vary from 6000 to 6800 for dow and 600 - 640 for S&p.

Does anyone follow elliotwave ? And how does one determine when the first wave begins especially since the market is contnually gyrating and does not move in a linear fashion.

I have realized, that I have a tendency to think that that markets will continue to go up when I see a few up days and down when I see a few down days! Not a healthy for my financial health!!
Result, I lost an opportunity when the november lows were reached and when you(Bill) motivated us to buy and lost some when I brought at the bear market rally high. Need to fight that tendency. I have never been daytrading stocks and also grappling with the psychological aspects of it.

I am wondering how other commnity members are coping with the psychological aspects of trading.

Hmm. Sold too early again!!