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Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., Mar. 17, 2009

[7:09am ET] I feel we need to lighten up a bit here – at least I do – so my wife Pat (yes, she’s wearing green today and yes her b’day was this week) sent me an article in today’s Toronto Star that features the fun-loving Irish.
http://www.thestar.com/article/603372

The story is about Muldoon, a part-time group of four musicians who have entertained every Tuesday night for almost 20 years at a popular Toronto Irish pub called Whelan's Gate on Bloor St. W. near Keele. One of the principals is Derry FitzPatrick, a teacher who happens to be the father of my daughter-in-law Fiona, and father-in-law of my son Will who were married in September 2007.

Now that was a party.
http://billcara.com/archives/2007/10/caras_commentary_community_cha_39.html


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Pictures

I've seen reference to other pictures. Could someone inform me how to access them.

Shelby seeks Geithner resignation

http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689686796873710

Sen. Richard Shelby must be reading my playbook.

In the case of Geithner, however, I don't think he should be forced to resign. Instead, he should be sat in front of TV cameras for two solid days and grilled by committees of both houses so that the govt and the people can finally discover what happened with the whole TARP program that Henry Paulson engineered. If Geithner were to plead the fifth, he would be impeached. Let the truth come out. If Geithner and his banks have nothing to hide, then let the President get into gear. Being stalled in neutral is painful to watch.

Re: Shelby seeks Geithner resignation

Bill, I have often been favorably impressed by Sen. Shelby while watching C-SPAN committee hearings. I'm sure his questions for Geithner would be enlightening — for us and possibly for Geithner.

I'd like to see something based on the Elizabeth Warren committee findings at year end.

“That’s a shortfall of about $78 billion,” she said, adding that Mr. Paulson “was not entirely candid” in his description of TARP’s bank capital injection program.

http://tiny.cc/E1i2u

Re: Shelby seeks Geithner resignation

Chris Whalen had a good comment about Geithner - that he thought he was a better fit for a post at State. His point being that we don't need a diplomat or consensus seeker right now, but someone willing and able to make the hard decisions necessary to restore confidence in the credit markets. Someone like Paul Volcker, imo.

He also predicted that Geithner would be gone by June. Let's hope it doesn't take Obama that long to send both he and Summers packing. The sooner the better.

O'Cara 100 Ratings Changes

Top o' the marn, laddies and lassies.

Upgrades:

ABB - to Buy @ Deutsche Securities
BBY - to Buy @ Jefferies & Co. Price Target Raised from $25 to $37
COST - to Buy @ Jefferies & Co. Price Target Raised from $38.50 to $49
KSS - to Buy @ Jefferies & Co. Price Target Raised from $36 to $44
TGT - to Buy @ Jefferies & Co. Price Target Raised from $29 to $34

New Coverage:

GRMN - Sell @ Morgan Joseph. Price Target = $14
GSK - Outperfrom @ Credit Suisse

Price Target Lowered:

ORCL - from $20 to $18 @ Jefferies & Co. Buy Rating
PBR - from $28 to $26 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral Rating.

-----------------------

Happy Trading & May The Saints Be With Ye.

-----------------------

Please join the old Bull Hunter in hoisting a Guinness to the memory of Tommy Makem and the fallen members of the Clancy Clan and singing along with "Wrap The Green Flag Round Me":

http://tinyurl.com/dy37lt

Lightening up

And a HAPPY ST. PAT's to you too Bill! ;)

St. Patrick

Happy St. Patrick's Day to All! I wear green everyday! It's the colour of money!

My prayers are for St. Patrick's return to lead the snakes off Wall Street.

Re: Shelby seeks Geithner resignation

Obama's popularity is slipping.

Just wait until the next leg down.

If he doesn't get something more constructive happening, as you say Bill, the guy's gonna be a lame duck fast.

I'm intrigued by your comments Bill about Obama's inappropriate remarks made concerning AIG. The President is apparently a constitutional lawyer - he would certainly understand the consequences of his actions.

I can imagine the pressure he's under right now. What a balancing act. Staying on top of the Washington game and righting wrongs made by so many.

tough act to follow

Re: St. Patrick

St. Patrick's day is that big in the US, is it?

Are the markets open?

Can We Handle the Truth?

These folks just don't understand....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

“Abusive short-selling is tantamount to fraud and market manipulation and must be stopped -- now,” Kaufman, a Delaware Democrat, said on the Senate floor yesterday, according to a press release posted on his Web site. “The uptick rule should have never been repealed.”

“To permit people to sell shares they don’t have and won’t be able to deliver turns investment into pure speculation,” Kaufman said. “The time has come for this practice to stop.”

They don't seem to understand this has nothing to do with the uptick rule. Naked short selling...but not the uptick rule. The Gang that couldn't shoot straight.

Ignore their words, watch their actions

Always tell my nephews and nieces, when it comes to politicians, whether Republican or Democrat, ignore their words, watch their actions.

"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., wants you to know that he voted against the $410 billion spending bill President Obama signed into law on March 11. His fellow Republicans "tried to cut the bill's cost. Our ideas would have saved billions of taxpayer dollars. Unfortunately, every one was turned aside." Well, not every one."

Six out of the top 10 Senate earmark hogs are Republicans

1.Thad Cochran, R-Miss.: $474 million
2. Roger Wicker, R-Miss.: $391 million
3. Mary Landrieu, D-La.: $332 million
4. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa: $292 million
5. David Vitter, R-La.: $249 million
6. Christopher Bond, R-Mo.: $248 million
7. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.: $235 million
8. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii: $225 million
9. Richard Shelby, R-Ala.: $219 million
10. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa: $199 million

http://www.slate.com/id/2213556/

Re: Pictures

Picture Access

Menu at page top: Site Index -> Community Pictures

RE: NG

David: Thanks for the info, PM. Do you have a suggestion for a good nat. gas company with a strong balance sheet to invest into?

No advice on specific names. Still hold some CHK from way higher.
The market (madness) trumps all fundamentals.

Re: St. Patrick

"St. Patrick's day is that big in the US, is it? Are the markets open?"

swissrobinson- Try trading on a few pints of green beer- removes the final traces of inhibition and puts you in the 'zone.' Just kidding, of course.

O'Cara 100 Update

CSCO - added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List based on upside from Unified Computing System (UCS) launch. UCS should unlock a larger addressable market and generate higher long-term growth. Also note upside to near-term consensus estimates based on resilience of CIO spending relative to overall decline in IT spending. Price target raised to $18 from $16.50.

Erin Go Braugh

Re: St. Patrick

..although I do know of a couple of R&D departments in Silicon Valley where the standard research and development protocol seems to be five pints.

Re: St. Patrick

May the good Saint be with us today, and everyday, as we deal with the evil of Wall St. With Irish on both sides of my family (a few generations back)it's hard not to celebrate. But a question? How do you make Guinness green?
S

AA

AA Divy cut, down -11% now

Will Geithner be replaced with Rubin then??? Stick with Geithner

wikipedia
Robert Rubin sparked controversy in 2001 when he contacted an acquaintance at the Treasury Department and asked if the department could convince bond-rating agencies not to downgrade the corporate debt of Enron, a debtor of Citigroup. Rubin wanted Enron creditors to lend money to the troubled company for a restructuring of its debt; a collapse of the energy giant might have serious consequences for financial markets and energy distribution. The Treasury official refused. A subsequent congressional staff investigation cleared Rubin of any wrongdoing, but he was still harshly criticized by political opponents.
In January 2009, Rubin was named by Marketwatch as one of the "10 most unethical people in business"

USD

Took profits on 1/2 USD @ 14.06

Re: St. Patrick

"How do you make Guinness green?"

I wouldn't recommend chlorine, how about some food coloring?

lightening up on gold miners

1/3 out of gold miners again,
will look to reload on a move below $900 which gold looks itching to do quite soon.

USD moving up right now, gold looking a bit on the weak side.

no real indication that gold and the shares are ready to move up.

if gold does one of its sudden upward thrusts then we would need to see it move above $930 resistance to support anything.

volume on the shares is very weak, and a simple bar chart of daily volume shows a strong decline as the stocks broke their recent downtrend. but it would be too easy to simply interpret this as bearish action. RSI has not recovered above the 50 line for the GDX.

right now to me its neutral to negative, and today's action will give us a good idea going forward, i suspect a few plunges down in gold to eventually take us below $800. i get the sickening impression they will take gold down tommorow after bernanke's comments. (or at least send it higher for a few minutes to head-fake then send it plunging, which will be incorrectly interpreted as a sign of confidence in the market)

Re: These folks just don't understand....

“To permit people to sell shares they don’t have and won’t be able to deliver turns investment into pure speculation,” Kaufman said. “The time has come for this practice to stop.”

I would rather have him focus on AIG who sold insurance backed by dollars it didn't have.

Fix CNBC

thought you guys might enjoy this: http://www.fixcnbc.com

Re: St. Patrick

I should think that after a few pints of Guinness, it can be any colour you want it to be.

A toast to you all...

Lá Fhéile Pádraig Sona Duit!

Finally some sense coming out of Washington

Grassley: AIG execs should quit or commit suicide.

I couldn't agree more. In fact, I believe we should assist all of the execs to choose, and then to administer, the latter option.

I can't STANDS AIG people.

Update:

The Case for Paying Out Bonuses at A.I.G.
ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
Published: March 16, 2009

1) If government officials were to break the contracts, they would be “breaking a bond,” Ms. Meyer says. “They are raising a whole new question about the trust and commitment organizations have to their employees.” (The auto industry unions are facing a similar issue — but the big difference is that there is a negotiation; no one is unilaterally tearing up contracts.)

2) Here is the second, perhaps more sobering thought: A.I.G. built this bomb, and it may be the only outfit that really knows how to defuse it.

This miscreant punk's (born in 1977 obviously too young to know jack #### about anything, let alone business) father got him the job at the Times.
Sorkin's father is Laurence Sorkin, an antitrust attorney at Cahill, Gordon & Reindel, which serves as outside counsel to The New York Times.

Great reporting, schmuck. Now go back to high school where you belong.

Re: St. Patrick

>swissrobinson- Try trading on a few pints of green beer- removes the final traces of inhibition and puts you in the 'zone.' Just kidding, of course.

Does whisky count? I enjoy the odd tot of (admittedly Scottish) spirit.

I've never tried trading under the influence...

Sounds dangerous to one's financial health.

SQM/PXP

Took off 1/3 for profit @ 26.22. Sold 1/2 PXP @ 16.50...even.

Oil/Gold

Twiggs comments on typical oil/gold price ratio suggesting a pullback and indicated by silver/platinum/palladium....yet oil is rising which should support inflation/gold. ???

Another technical view comes from Dave Landry, Ron Sen turned me onto Landry.
Everyone should sign up for his free "market in a minute" daily newsletter.
It's very informative. At anyrate, he see's the gold chart rolling over, which is hard to argue technically. The fundamentals are wide open depending on fear and how much AIG and the banks are lying to us regarding real losses in the end. More boiled frog to come.

Remember: It can't spread from housing/it's a soft landing/it's a mild recession/it's a slightly deeper recession/goldilocks is fine/where's goldilocks/it's only $700 billion/we need another $750 billion/we need....

Dang this hot tub is warm....

Thornburg did fool a few people

Do you remember March 2008 when the CEO of Thornburg Mortgage made the rounds of Financial Entertainment TV fielding softballs? “I’m ok; you’re ok!” the man said. NOT today. I also told you NOT in March 2008.

http://billcara.com/archives/2008/03/caras_comment...
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/03/daily_rep...

Did you really fall for that CEO’s cock-and-bull performance? Then read it and weep.

http://tinyurl.com/c6zl5c
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

Ten days later a website called InvestorGuide.com came out with this report, concluding Thornburg was A-ok. Hmmm, I wonder if it was ok to lose 99% of your capital?

http://www.investorguide.com/stock-archives.cgi?da...

AA?

Anybody buying AA at these prices?
Thinking about writing some 5$ puts ... oct5$ going for 1.46

Re: Oil/Gold

Craig,

Oil creeping up possible inflation/gold?

Gold aside
make no mistake about it, oil's rise is all thanks to the $13 a week give or take going to all w2 employees from the stimulus.
Bought and paid for.
Transfer of wealth all financed by my kids not even thought of yet.

If oil rises, not because of inflation; more likely because of greed. Producer prices are trending down but consumer costs are flat. producers are trying to sqeeze more margin. We can't blame them for business but this will work until it doesn't. Soon most likely.
Enjoy your day.
GL trading.

Re: Oil/Gold

Yeah, I was thinking the reverse, oil/gold simply as the ratio, which usually has some affect on the other commodity/currency. I agree oil isn't going up because of inflation which we don't have, but could be encouraged in order to cause some inflation which the powers that be want, also some price impetus for conservation/alt energy. Not good for regular folks using gas/energy, so not really good for econ, yet they want inflation/to halt deflation....

The unborn, taxed without life? Priceless but not considered...they don't vote and their parents and grandparents are too meek to defend them or themselves.

This is why I'm less than sympathetic to those sensitive to Grassley's suggestions, as outlandish as he knows they are. He did moderate them this AM, but really, aren't these AIG people lucky we're not China? This would end very badly for them, there would be no discussion of keeping bonuses. There would be begging for life.

RE: NG

i was looking closer at Nat Gas and see it still has a long way to go down to get to the 2001 recession lows:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?script=...

I'm holding off for now...at least until i see a sign of the bottom being hit.

Armed Guards Posted At AIG

It might be a tad early to sell any precious metals just yet...

A tidal wave of public outrage over bonus payments swamped American International Group yesterday. Hired guards stood watch outside the suburban Connecticut offices of AIG Financial Products, the division whose exotic derivatives brought the insurance giant to the brink of collapse last year. Inside, death threats and angry letters flooded e-mail inboxes. Irate callers lit up the phone lines. Senior managers submitted their resignations. Some employees didn't show up at all.

"It's a mob effect," one senior executive said. "It's putting people's lives in danger."

"It's going to blow up," said a senior Financial Products manager, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak for the company. "I have a horrible, horrible, horrible feeling that this is going to end badly."

http://tinyurl.com/dbh3dh

Re: Armed Guards Posted At AIG

How long will it be before someone leaks the names and addresses of those that received the bonuses?

GLD

Taking profits on GLD APR 78 short [puts]. Keeping a few APR 83 short puts but net delta negative now with APR 101 and 104 short calls. I think the most likely direction for gold in the next week or so is down.

So far, broad market is absorbing last weeks's rally nicely and I think there is a lot of money getting antsy to go long. Couple that with the possibility the gov announces changes to FASB mark-to-market and a reinstatement of the uptick rule that effectively destroys the leveraged short ETFs.

If so, gold will take a hit. But even if announcements have not been made, they are effectively keeping a rein on gold going much higher from here. You may have noticed that continued negative news re: economy no longer causes selloffs.

Re: Armed Guards Posted At AIG

It will end up a shell game of pass the buck.
Recipients of the bonus's will say the people that caused the AIG troubles are gone, and they deserve their retaining bonus's.
Liddy will threaten there will be dire consequence if the company fails, ie. the sky is falling.
This fraud will blow over just like the thousands of others before this tiny scandal.
Automatic congressional pay hikes?!
AIG is only following government's EXAMPLE.

A country without adequate financial regulations is doomed to fail.

re: GLD

In original post, I said, "Taking profits on GLD APR 78 short calls." I should have APR 78 short puts.

Jeff Matthew's latest

Jeff Matthews has a great take on banking, to the tune of "The Gettysburg Address"

Four or five years ago our Investment Bankers helped bring forth on this continent, and around the world, a new banking system, conceived in Leverage, and dedicated to the proposition that all persons working for Investment Banks can create enormous Wealth for themselves with almost no Risk except to Taxpayers.

Now we the Investment Bankers of Goldman Sachs are engaged in a great Scam, testing whether that Nation of Bankers can get paid without Tipping Off the Taxpayers to that Scam.

We have come to cash our checks.

It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this, for we have Houses in the Hamptons requiring upkeep.

But, in a check-clearing sense, we can not Cash Our Checks so long as AIG cannot make good on the credit default swaps we purchased to Hedge our Leverage. Thankfully, the brave men of Goldman who struggled to Attain Positions of Power in Treasury and the White House have consecrated it, far above Barney Frank’s poor power to detract from our AIG Contracts.

The Small Investor will little note, nor long remember, how completely screwed He got, but we the Investment Bank of Goldman Sachs can never forget what they did to provide us this cash. We thank them for the $8 billion Their Government is paying to AIG in order to Make Us Whole.

We here highly resolve that The Little Investor shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under Goldman Sachs, shall have a new birth of Leverage Without Risk -- and that government of Goldman, by Goldman, and for Goldman, shall not perish from the earth.

Re: Armed Guards Posted At AIG

Did you guys hear about the AIG bonuses? 42 million went to the top 10 guys.

Somebody get me my bazooka, I'm ready to maim, if not kill.

Lysander Minerals? Any comments

Per Marketwatch;
Lysander may now acquire UEL on or before June 30, 2009 by issuing 22 million of its common shares to UC.
there is only 23.5 million shares out there for LYM and they will dilute by 92%
Is this a standard practice? won't it tank the price?
FD: small underwater LYM position

And then this from NYT
"The Internal Revenue Service will allow victims of Bernard L. Madoff’s investment fraud to claim a lucrative tax deduction related to the bulk of their losses, the I.R.S. commissioner testified Tuesday morning before the Senate Finance Committee."
Taxpayer in effect paying retainer bonus (paychecks that keep coming) for the lousy SEC performance
IMHO we are not at a bottom . My evidence is that I am edging towards capitulation but not there yet. The two items above are but wisps of straw. Not the last one but....? Its out there

OTHER WITHDRAWALS

ALOHA !!

The US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT for last Friday, March 13th, shows the US government is in the hole by $125bil USD over the past five months of their fiscal year.

Every time I look at that STATEMENT I can see numbers that just do not add up! One of the worst is the line item "OTHER WITHDRAWALS" ... If this is what passes for ACCOUNTING in America then it really does not matter who is in charge at the US TREASURY!

On March 13th, the total OTHER WITHDRAWALS was $16.946 bil USD, yet if you total up the OTHER breakdown for that day they add up to $15.589bil USD. That is $1.357bil unaccounted for last Friday alone. Then if you go to the Year-To-Date(YTD)it is even far worse. There is $419.678bil USD unaccounted for.

Then ... the YTD amount of "UNCLASSIFIED WITHDRAWALS" now adds up to $257.586bil USD. Can you believe we live in a country that has an accounting line item "UNCLASSIFIED"? I doubt even ENRON was that brazen!

So lets add up the missing US TREASURY funds that are either "UNACCOUNTED" for or "UNCLASSIFIED" ... TOTAL = $677.264bil USD!!!

While everyone is in an uproar over AIG bonuses and the US CONgress and Bernanke are telling us all that the recession will be over this year the US TREASURY has a HUGE $677bil hole in its BOOKS!! I have to say if they ADMIT that hole exists in their PUBLIC statements then God only knows what the REAL number is!

I was watching a movie last night ... TOMMY BOY, a comedy with Chris Farley and David Spade. In the movie is a character named Ray Zalinsky, who is played by Dan Akroyd, and is an auto parts mogul. There is a part in the movie where Zalinsky talks about the AMERICAN PUBLIC ... He says, "What the American PUBLIC doesn't know is what makes them the American PUBLIC!" Then he laughs!

Now I am no idiot ... God knows I have sat in on some high powered behind the scenes contractor meetings on some huge multi-billion dollar public works projects and I can tell you that these CEOs and execs at some of the largest US General Contractor offices know exactly what they are doing and they plan it down to the last cent! These CHANGE ORDER negotiations I used to be involved with were nothing but a public rape of the US TAXPAYERS ... PERIOD! I used to have this one lighting(light fixture)supplier salesman come over to our offices every time we were bidding projects and no matter what day it was he eventually got around to saying "The PUBLIC are the last know!" He sold very high-end extruded aluminum lighting fixtures(like you see in museums) and had a racket going with the lighting engineers where he would write the specs in such a way as to exclude his competition, in exchange the engineers could bill the State for work they never did. This is why you end up with expensive museum lighting in kindergarten finger painting classes! Now if that sort of fraud is an every day occurrence on such minuscule levels as light fixtures/specs then what do you think is going on with $700bil worth of TARP? TRANSPARENCY? The US CONgress wouldn't know TRANSPARENCY if it was the nose on their face! Who could possibly decipher whether the US FED was telling the truth or not, even if they announced 100% TRANSPARENCY? Even a CONTRACTOR can "SPIN" a dime to look like a dollar!

The US BANKS are no different than those contractors I used to do business with. The END GAME is to screw the US TAXPAYER and enrich themselves! The only differences between US BANKS and Public Works Contractors is the US BANKS are way more adept at screwing TAXPAYERS and the product the US BANKS produce is virtually useless in application and durability for the masses. While Contractors build roads and schools and prisons the US BANKS build complex derivative "vehicles" on a road they built called "default"!

I have said since DAY ONE to let the US BANKS fail, let GM fail and let any entity, including the US CONgress, fail if they cannot stand on their own two feet like US TAXPAYERS are forced to do ... ITS THAT SIMPLE! What we have now in America is REVERSE DARWINISM where the least fit are the ones surviving. Such a system is doomed to fail ... that's EMPIRE!

The solution to all our problems does not lie over at Geitners office or Bernanke's office or Obama's office or Pelosi's office or even at Jon Stewart's office ... it lies right in the US Declaration Of Independence. We have DECLARED our Independence with this document so when will we as a Nation of WE THE PEOPLE ever claim it? Its NOT un-American for God's sake ... its our RIGHT as citizens to junk the entire system and start over!

It is as plain as the day that those in POWER now will not volunteer to dismantle their thrones, so we Americans ... the PEOPLE ... have but to decide if we want to be ruled or to be FREE ... Which is it? Talk is cheap ... and those in POWER would love to "talk story" and debate about the deceit and corruption and point fingers 25/8, yeah, they have everything to gain by delay tactics!

NOT GOOD MORNING AMERICA ... WAKE UP AMERICA!!

TNA

took it off again
Sell 250 shares TNA at Market Day

03/17/09 12:27 Filled 250 at 15.062

Re: Armed Guards Posted At AIG

I suspect Liddy has some "knowledge" of the bailout dealings that quite a few on the gov side would rather NEVER come to light.

This will blow over... gov needs it to (which they really should have considered before feigning disgust).

Best thing possible for this country would be for Liddy to say **** it, resign, then turn whistleblower. Never happen, but it's definitely needed.

Re: Lysander Minerals? Any comments

ALOHA !!

LYM ... yes ... I'm buying!

IRS no I'm not buying!

"upper class"

Hard to destroy what we all want. I want social equity. I want those who profited greatly from bad, questionable,legacy,predatory...whatever you want to call them;...I want those people to lose their jobs, lose their bonus, face criminal charges and be judged according to the laws of this land. Isn't that what Bill meant when he abraided President Obamas words re AIG. No new laws,no new taxes no new deductions no new regulations. Let us do well what we have on the books.
Just one of the sheeple who found this soapbox
peace

back into FAS @ 5.25...

My reluctance to do so tells me it may be the right move...keeping it at 25% of allocation, however...

On another note

Any of you hear of a company called Searchlight? (SRCH)

According to a friend, they are a mining company that Jack Rivkin among others is very hot on. Anyone know anything? Kaimu?

Re: back into FAS @ 5.25...

Keep an eye on your stops 2nd... looks like we just put the top in for the day and should be heading down soon [60mins].

Just my take everyone.

New Stocks on My Radar

Tried out some new screening ideas last night, found 7 stocks to study further. Lo and behold, it looks like at least half of them are busting-out today. Anyway, it's a nice change from looking at so many dog-charts.

No positions yet.

NYSE:HGG, NYSE:AZO, NYSE:FDO, NASDAQ:CERN, NASDAQ:STAR, NYSE:LFT, NASDAQ:TNDM

Any info would be appreciated as I begin my DD.

Re: On another note

I have heard of Searchlight but I haven't had much of a chance to take a look at it. I understand they have a gold mine under construction in Nevada. The company seems to be somewhat under the radar considering their $200m+ market cap.

I am planning to take a closer look when I get a chance. The stock has taken off quite a bit lately......

Re: On another note

All I know, through a friend of his (ok, a former employee, it's different) Jack's that is is really hot on this company. Maybe Bill knows Jack, as Jack used to be a big mining guy prior to doing equities at Neuberger.

HR 699

ALOHA !!

Last week I posted on HR 699, the US mining law that will severely curtail mining and exploration activities in the USA should it pass. The exact same law was put through CONgress during the CLINTON years and it did not pass!

Yet even if it did pass it would only apply to BLM(Bureau Land Management)properties. In America, due to the railroads, the Santa Fe company in the SW region was granted millions of acres of land by the government. This land is not affected by this law, only the BLM properties.

Santa Fe Gold was bought by Newmont and therefore Newmont is the agent for Santa Fe, but Santa Fe retains the mineral rights to the lands not Newmont. That's a BIG diff ...

It is doubtful that HR 699 passes, but even if it did there are some large exceptions.

To be safe I would suggest knowing whether or not the mining companies you own stock in have BLM properties. Yet, another added burden to due diligence.

IT IS WHAT IT IS!

Re: back into FAS @ 5.25...

vb- OK, thanks. Just put in my first stop in many years.

SIRI

check out the action in sirius in the past half hour. No news from what I can tell, don't understand.

Actually SIRI has had several good days hasn't it?

Average True Range.

Does anyone know of a sight that gives ATR for individual equities?

Re: Armed Guards Posted At AIG

I guess I was just born too soon.

Any bonus I ever got was as a reward for a job at least adequately done. It was once a turkey, another time a Zippo lighter.

Paying these people bonuses to retain their "talent" is like thanking a prostitute for a case of the clap :-(

Re: On another note

I did a quick perusal of some press releases. Looks like Searchlight is the owner of a large slag pile and are in the process of constructing a mill to begin processing the material. Also sounds like they are (they have) been refurbishing existing equipment on-site. They have about $6m cash at recent filing. Without any existing cash flow, these shares look pretty darn expensive (at a market cap of $230m US). I'll be keeping an eye out for developments.

Tar and Feather

After reading the following article http://tinyurl.com/cet8te on Fox News. I think the American people have every right to Tar and Feather a few people. I would put Senator Dodd at the top of the list.

Re: Average True Range.

Stockcharts does. Don't know if it's part of the free service, you might have to subscribe.

TARP now LARP?

Now that they've softened the terminology used in ref to "troubled" assets by referring to 'em as "legacy" assets, they should change the acronym as well. Pretty fitting considering LARP is an acronym for "live action role playing."

On a serious note, found this article quite refreshing!

Wells chairman says public stress-test of banks is ‘asinine’

http://tinyurl.com/dx3kjj

Re: Jeff Matthew's latest

4 or 5 years ago? is this guys senile or naive or both?

Re: Average True Range.

Please try this link

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

In the indicators section you can choose "Average true range" parameters and click update. you will see ATR on the top left corner of the chart.

Helicopter Ben hits the air waves?

Helicopter Ben hits the air waves?
Question is Why?

The corrupt government is the largest employer of ex-Goldman banksters?
Question is why?

March Madness in the markets?
Question is Why?

Geithner knew about the AIG bonus's months ago and did nothing?
Question is Why?

No one left in this government that wasn't paid for by Goldman Sacks?
Question is Why?

Government accounting filled with black holes?
Question is Why?

Workers loosing their jobs by the thousands?
Question is why?

Sharkie buying Canadian tar fields and Arkansas chicken factories?
Question is Why?

Congress fails to bring up for vote their automatic pay increases while the country falls deeper into a recession?
Question is Why?

Where are those pothole filling JOBS Mr. Obama?

Those answers are coming shortly! HA

Re: Armed Guards Posted At AIG

Grym - I applaud your observation, agree completely.

U.S. Dollar

Does anyone else see the double top in the U.S. Dollar? And the Treasury sales by foreign entities in January? I think it might be wise to initiate a dollar short investment. Is there something other than options that gives you more exposure to shorting the dollar than short UUP or long UDN?

bought more UXG

1000 shares at $1.70. Its price action over the past few months shows that it finally came back to life and is a very leveraged play on the price of gold.

Re: U.S. Dollar

I saw that last night also, teamfuego. Studying UUP, for e.g., it's not only a double-top, but a MACD negative divergence. On the other hand, it's heavily oversold right now and parked right above a key support level. Also, you're fighting against the trend that's been in place since last July. Finally, I don't really see the reward/risk in playing it on the short side if it breaks down hard, say below $25.97. Maybe there's better ways to profit on $ weakness? Gold? This Equity rally?

added later: This dip of the last six days also might just be a wee handle on a cup and handle which began early Dec?

QT Gone Mad !

Looks like something is in the works..

Would you think I have gone mad if I said we could take out SP666 by Friday or come close?

BTW... McHugh had this in his newsletter today..

"There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Monday, up 11.46 points, suggesting a larger price move is coming either Tuesday or Wednesday."

[Now with this with call he has been spot on in the past]

gold

Well I'm seeing oil now. I guess I have to wait patiently for metals, and then finally gold. Sigh.

bought some WGW

2000 shares at $1.54, as a direct replacement of these shares that I sold at $1.54 last week when gold price broke below $900 and I thought it is going way down.

Re: QT Gone Mad !

Didn't McHugh just this past weekend say "it could rally 20-30% over the next coming weeks"? LOL... I always get the impression that the guy has both sides covered. It could rally, unless it plunges!

As far as the SP666 goes, what gives you that impression? Personally, I don't see that kind of pull back until the $USD turns around from its trend over the past week.

FDIC & Insolvency

Old news of:

"Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the fund it uses to protect customer deposits at U.S. banks could dry up amid a surge in bank failure..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtons...

Even older news of:

Since 1996, the FDIC had not assessed banks in the most favorable capital and
assessment risk classification categories for insurance premiums
for most deposits, due to the favorable ratio of the assets in the
FDIC’s deposit insurance funds to the aggregate level of insured
deposits outstanding
. The regulations applicable to investment advisers
cover all aspects of the investment advisory business,
including limitations on the ability of investment advisers to
charge performance-based or non-refundable fees to clients;
record-keeping; operational, marketing and reporting

www.pnc.com/webapp/unsec/Requester?resource=/wcm/r...

Direct investments, such as U.S. Government and corporate securities and other investment vehicles (including mutual funds) generally pay higher rates of return than financial institutions, because of the absence of federal insurance premiums and reserve requirements.

investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/drawFiling.asp?docKey=136-000095012407001116-63A2ILLM7JK7EDSJ4V5N2INUAT&docFormat=HTM&formType=10-K

i am going to go way out on a limb and say the insurance corp. is insolvent because it does not collect premiums. anyone want to suggest that this was just due to "unexpected market forces", "incompetence" or some other excuse that absolves the guilty of guilt?

Out of DOW

Sold my DOW for a short-term gain of 12%. I think I'm going to stop single-handedly trying to rescue the dogs of this market and focus on stocks of an entirely different character. No doubt DOW, and others, represent some sort of long-term value potential, but that sort is well-covered in my RRSP(401K) buy-and-hold stuff.

Ron Paul on the Fed

Ron Paul to be on Bloomberg momentarily to speak about how we don't need the Fed.

Retailers

They are strong(especially large cap)...the market(s) are sinking, or so it appears.

Did not check earlier however.

Re: U.S. Dollar

I don't know much about charts and the USD teamonfuego but I'd be careful about the precedent set by the Swiss National Bank, which devalued the Swiss Franc. If every man and his dog follows suit then the USD might be the last man standing.

credit cards

I was watching Meredith Whitney today talking about how credit card limits are being reduced and she explained that for most people, credit cards function as a convenience that enables them to pay for things on the fly without having to check their bank account balance. However, that and Antal Fekete got me thinking. He says that Mother Nature obliges us to first save and then consume, during our 'harvest years', whereas Keysianism (citing Krugman's explanation of the current crisis as a nefarious 'savings glut') turns Mother Nature on her head and requires that we spend first and then instead of having savings, we pay interest on our purchases. Well I agree with Fekete, and I'm going to turn my old habit of buying first and paying almost 30% interest afterwords to saving at 30% interest per annum and buying later. Why didn't I think of that before?

(Ans. Because banks can charge 30% interest on plastic but only pay 1 or 2 % on savings.) We really need to bail those suckers out so they can continue to stand Mother Nature on her head and give them fat bonuses to retain their "talent" :( --the kind of talent that shoots you in the knees if you don't pay.

Haven't the banks already gotten their bailout funds from their usurious rates? Maybe they can pay us 30% on the Taxpayer Anal Rape Program funds we gave them in addition?

Re: Average True Range.

Alberio, Sastocks,
Thank you, just what I was looking for. Do not need subscription for day old data. Thank you.

Re: TARP now LARP?

jsj- It's like building Legacy Homes on top of polluted/toxic land fill. I've heard of homebuilders warning new owners not to plant trees with roots that extend below a certain number of feet (to avoid ingesting contaminated produce), usually on former military bases rezoned for residential construction. And then, of course, there's Love Canal. Here we are with a 1.7t SuperFund to clean up toxic derivatives. It's almost better to abandon them altogether.

Re: U.S. Dollar

many many people are calling an end to the dollar rally they never forsaw in 2008.

ill believe it when i see it.

double top? or bounce from the bottom of the trendline started many moons ago?

analysis of hte USD by goldbugs and dollar bears has been vastly off the mark since the middle of last year. not until the dollar started screaming upward did people come forward with their new explanations why it was happening, and how it was just a "bear market bounce"... how long does a trend bounce before its no longer considered a bear market bounce?

if i told you i had a stock that was in the following technical picture:

200 MA curing up since october 08

100 and 50 MA up and above the 200 MA

price above all 3 MA's

shoddy fundamentals but other competing stocks in the space embarking on share dilution at a faster rate

it is considered the leader in its field, like it or not.

---------

youd probally like it. this is for better or worse the USD right now.

switzerland embarking on quantitative easing like the UK...gold over $100 of record despite all the alleged printing....

i hope for USD weakness, but i dont see it in the longer term chart. all i see are tired gold-bugs wishing and hoping a weak USD will mean strong gold but it wont, especially for the shares. USD will weaken alongside gold if the market rallies as both ahve moved in unison for the past while, what makes people think gold will only enjoy the upside of this relationship?

good luck.

......

Natural gas

CHK and XTO are zooming while UNG is making new lows. Are people taking notice of our nat gas discussion yesterday (and Bill's comments about nat gas today) and loading up early? I am definitely not chasing the nat gas stocks now, while UNG is making new lows. Chasing them up might be OK when UNG turns around. Once CHK falls to the low of its 6-month range, I'll think about writing puts on it.

Re: U.S. Dollar

i'm by no means a gold bug. just aware of the fiscal problems going on with the U.S. government. you could be right.

i think i'm better off sticking to companies and companies that i understand. i like DELL for some reason. it has $4/share in cash. That means it's at $5/share ex-cash or about 4-5 times 09 earnings. It generated 1.8 Billion in free cash flow last year.

The last time i saw this scenario set up was with SIGM at $7/share back in late 08. It has doubled since then. I see DELL getting to $14 or $15 as well.

Something caught a bid?

Wow, what was that spike? AT&T on the move...who else?

Obama's plan for restructuring health...

"WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration is considering a plan to make veterans use private insurance to pay for treatment of combat and service-related injuries.

The proposal would be an about-face on what veterans think is a longstanding pledge to pay for health-care costs that result from their military service.

In a White House meeting Monday, veterans groups apparently failed to persuade President Barack Obama to take the plan off the table."

Obama is looking for a second term, isn't he?

If he does this for those that put their bodies in the way of America's enemies, what is he going to do for joe six pack?

I'm sorry, but Obama seems to be having as much difficulty dealing with the problems facing him as terrific timmy.

That this idea even made it to the press is bad ju-ju.

Re: U.S. Dollar

I'm not necessarily concerned about what the dollar will do long term. I'm more concerned with its short term trend.

Last time we saw it start to trend toward correcting, it soon headed below its 50 DMA and stayed there for a while. The start of that correction was late November, and we saw the market trend up from 7500 to 9k.

The USD is touching its 50 DMA now. Whether or not it breaks its support is a tell for me... at least short term.

Low volume/4th/5th day

MHO is the rally is about outta gas.

C, hope its building new base...

Here in the $2.45 area.

I am in Boston on business at a IT conference run by one of my largest global clients.

Highlights:
It spending is going to remain flat in 09 for B2B.

The growth is still consumer.

The problem is the majority of the tech innovation is to consumer tech. And we know where the consumer is now.

Virtualization , green it, and cost optimization software, cloud computing are the leading areas for business it. Not hardware.

Companies who can can capture the consumer experience and grow interenationslly will be poised to be the next juggernaut.

ENER

nibbled on at 14.17

Re: back into FAS @ 5.25/off @ 5.47

I'll take 4%...

Re: credit cards

Not that I don't appreciate the anger behind the last part of that post, but it's more worthy of Yahoo or the execrable tickerforum than this forum.

sorry about double post

Deleted

XL

bought back in at $4. I like this sector if mkt to market gets relaxed somewhat. Even if it doesn't I think this is a short term double.

note: risk averse need not apply.

Turning bullish?

The higher the elevation, the more passengers this train will take on. I think it's barely gotten started.

Re: C, hope its building new base...

I have a question:

My reading so far validates the IT picture you paint. I am curious as to why IBM is lagging today. They may have moved too much too fast, no?

Updat:

IBM is up big today.

covered 1/2 of my FAS puts

Just bought back at $1.05 1/2 of the FAS April $5 put contracts I sold at $1.70. Expecting to sell these puts again at a higher price on a market pullback in the next few days.

Re: Turning bullish?

what?

FAZ

LIGHT VOLUME. Seems due for short term correction.
Buy 150 shares FAZ at 36.5 Limit Day

03/17/09 15:52 Filled 150 at 36.5

Couple market orders taken out on C

That was odd, one for 2.405 and one for 2.42 when the stock's bidding at 2.47 or so.

Re: Low volume/4th/5th day

running SPX vs VIX, NYA against CPC, volume today vs yesterday, RUT vs SPX. None giving me warm fuzzies.

Whoosh!

I'll probably get my n&%ts squashed for this one but I tried a Buy at Stop for the first time in a while. TNDM was banging up against $22.00-$22.02 for the last few days. Darn thing just blasted through and caught my $22.04 bid. Vadym you better be right about this "buying strength" stuff! :P

Re: Whoosh!

Not exactly my kind of setup, so not taking responsibility :) ... good luck!

Re: Low volume/4th/5th day

I would like to add that the average volume per declining stock today was larger than the average volume per advancing stock, as can be seen for pretty much all indexes today at http://tinyurl.com/dcgmxb. This by itself is not bullish. On the other hand, $USD is near its lows over the past 10 days, which is a bullish sign. So go figure...

Re: Low volume/4th/5th day

IBD follow through

will eventually be right, but so far there has been a number of failed rally attempts where follow throughs have broken down. As most already know IBD rules apply to bull markets only. FWIW, I have started looking at some half positions in IBD type growth stocks but have yet to pull the trigger. IBD follow through call was last thursday I believe with market now being in confirmed rally mode.

WORTHLESSNESS

ALOHA !!

What is money worth? I always hear people comment on the value of gold is only what people are willing to pay for it. But yet somehow they never understand that a US Dollar's value exists under the same dictates.

Today RON PAUL was on Bloomberg making sense ... I will repost my US MONEY FLOW CHART ...

US TREASURY >>> US FED >>> WE THE PEOPLE

Whats that entity sucking us dry in the MIDDLE? Its the MIDDLEMAN ...

So what is money worth ultimately? In the worst case scenario this is what paper money is worth ...

Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM

ELIMINATE THE US FED!!

Re: WORTHLESSNESS

As always a good point, as always likely to fall on many deaf ears.
cheers

Re: WORTHLESSNESS

When paper money is finally worthless how will the greedy rich people pay their guest workers to cook for them and clean their McMansions?
Eat or be eaten!

Darden

Hmm, DRI beat expectations and boosted guidance, so my puts aren't looking too pretty, but small position and i knew it was a gamble.

I'll probably close my puts at a loss tomorrow and look to reload after it runs a bit more, depending on what their balance sheet looks like now...

Re: IBD follow through

If you are going to follow the IBD model for Rally times then be attentive for the distribution days that IBD watches for also......

I have not looked through those glasses for awhile.

Today's Charts

Almost look like a constant flat slope, but watching today's rally sure didn't feel like it.

Re: WORTHLESSNESS

Maybe we shouldn't concern ourselves with the greedy rich ability to pay their guest workers tiny sums, we should concentrate on having the greedy rich pay their fair share of the tax burden! Then maybe they won't be so interested in hiring only guest workers!!

Re: Darden

I was going to say the other day, according to my local news the restaurant business here hasn't appreciably declined.

Re: Darden

Yeah, its my usual mistake of believing in a coming move but getting the timing wrong. Live and learn :)

Re: WORTHLESSNESS

ALOHA !!

Why should any of us be forced into US INCOME TAX slavery in the first place? Consider why "income taxes" in the USA have grown from 1% to 45% and during some times in our past, around WW2, 94%?

What is it that keeps expanding along with income taxes? Hummmmm??? Let me think for all of a split nanosecond!

BIG GOVERNMENT! THE BIG NANNY STATE! THE WELFARE/WARFARE STATE!!
These Harvard guys just keep spending like tomorrow will never come!

Any cursory view of income taxes and it is the CORPORATIONS that pay the least income tax. Even the Bush FY 2008 Budget projected US CORPORATIONS would be paying ZERO income taxes by 2012, but of course that is the same date they projected to have a surplus in the budget! Look at any FY Budget from any administration, REP or DEM, and it is the US CORPORATIONS paying the least income tax.

Look ... as a perfect example of why PAPER MONEY is WORTHLESS ... I have a 1951 US SENATE RESTAURANT MENU and on there is a Broiled Lobster Dinner with potatoes, rice, bread and salad. The total cost was 85cents in 1951! What would that cost today?

So here is the main reason our taxes keep going up ...

OUR MONEY IS GETTING MORE WORTHLESS!

What it cost to pay for GOVERNMENT PROMISES to US Voters in 1951 cost a whole lot more today! Add in the "inconvenient truth" that we are all living longer and consuming those "freebies", PROMISES at a much greater time frame!

LONG TERM PROMISES and FIAT MONEY just do not mix! Its like oil and water!

Its always the MONEY STUPID!

40,000 Foot Level

Does anyone know the best country for a Canadian citizen to relocate to with the intent of being a tax-smart place to live (such as Bill's paradise - the Bahamas). A suggestion of where to begin to look woudl suffice thus far, but I do not have friends that are tax specialists...

I would not want to renounce my Canadian citizenship, as well. My time-frame for such a move would be in ten years or so, but I would like to begin to plan the best path forwards soon. I call this one of my 40,000 foot level goals and want to make sure all the little things I do today moves in that direction.

Thanks in advance

XLF trading around $8,

XLF trading around $8, investors are buying April 4, 5 and 6 puts. On Monday, the April 5 puts traded more than 60,000 contracts, indicating widespread expectations that XLF could fall some 40% and set a new 52-week low.

Investors have sold more than 70,000 of Citigroup's Sept. 3 call. The contracts essentially bet that Citigroup's $2.33 stock will not trade above $3 by September

Re: WORTHLESSNESS

"Why should any of us be forced into US INCOME TAX slavery in the first place?"

Well we shouldn't have US INCOME TAX slavery and I'd vote for that!!! Sales and consumption tax will just be huge as long as the US remains a welfare state though! Since we must have some form of taxation, Richie Rich should have to pay his fair share instead of getting a free ride.

TNA

Sold 1/3 After hours 16.35. + 15.5%

Re: XLF trading around $8/tracking the bets

"XLF trading around $8, investors are buying April 4, 5 and 6 puts. On Monday, the April 5 puts traded more than 60,000 contracts, indicating widespread expectations that XLF could fall some 40% and set a new 52-week low.

Investors have sold more than 70,000 of Citigroup's Sept. 3 call. The contracts essentially bet that Citigroup's $2.33 stock will not trade above $3 by September."

Vinod-

Wondering why your focus is on BUYERS of the April XLF puts, and WRITERS of the September C calls? I don't doubt the high volumes are significant, but is it possible the WRITERS of the April XLF puts and the BUYERS of the September C calls are placing the smarter bets?

Re: TNA

"Sold 1/3 After hours 16.35. + 15.5%"

I nearly did that as well (for a 23% gain), but decided to let it ride another day or so rather than trading in and out. Looking forward to a bounce off S&P 800...??? If things go downhill from here I'll be taking it off.

Re: TNA

That sounds good. No one knows when a breakout (or a breakdown) is going to happen. I just think the odds of a breakout are higher right now.

Peso on a Tear

Mexico's Peso has been on a tear the last 5-6 days. Did I miss something? Did they raise interest rates? Is the Gov supporting it with reserves? Or is this a prelude to North&Central American economic strength?

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=fxm&ta=1&p=d

Canada's Loonie(and markets) showing activity and stubborn strength also in the face of what I can tell you, first hand, is nothing but gloom and doom headlines:

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=fxm&ta=1&p=d

Re: TNA

"I just think the odds of a breakout are higher right now."

Well, the XLF candlestick looks good except the volume is a bit low. The SPY candlestick looks about the same.

AttachmentSize
spy.png 5.3 KB
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Re: Peso on a Tear

"Mexico's Peso has been on a tear the last 5-6 days. Did I miss something?"

No tengo un idea, mi amigo!

Market Cycles

Following Bill's theme of the enduring affect of proponents of the market cycles, I would have thought it would be Consumer Discretionaries tommorow, but I'm sensing that it'll be energy(&materials?) wearing the party hat. Aussie markets looking strong overnight, first time in a while. Crude futures siting at $48.57 now, not seen in a long while, and, with other commodities, obviously forming a big-looping rounded bottom:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutu...

Re: Peso on a Tear

Arg. The second link should have been FXC, not FXM, again:

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=fxc&ta=1&p=d

Re: TNA

CP- Templeton's maxim, IMO, can be paraphrased and applied not just to bull markets, but in compressed form to any kind of rally (bear or otherwise).

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."

Plenty of skepticism right now.

Re: TNA

2nd_ave - "wall of worry", I think they say.

Re: Peso on a Tear

It's probably anticipation of price stability, as fewer pesos make their way into the pockets of tens of thousands of corrupt police.

I'm beat

Chat again tomorrow!

Re: TNA

That's right. All the talk of bottoming while we slid down the "slope of hope" has given way to talk of [intermediate] topping, and it does feel more like a "wall of worry."

Re: XLF trading around $8/tracking the bets

2nd
Reason I posted about XLF is I think we’ll see some choppy, volatile action over the next couple of days as we typically do around options expiration.
And rally is with low volume so brought some April oex put and added some FAZ for swing trade. So, naturally I am looking for market to go down in next few days for my trade to be profitable. I am not going to be buy and hold for a while like I used to be

Cameco in the news

TORONTO, March 11 (Reuters) - Cameco Corp's (CCO.TO) chief executive said on Wednesday the company may consider acquisitions in the $2 billion range, and predicted a supply crunch due to industry-wide development cuts and questions about Russian government uranium sales.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN11...

CME

Was bashing my way through a scan which produced 2000+ stocks and this one caught my eye:

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CME&ta=1&p=d&b=1

Seems they have received regulatory approval from the SEC to be a clearing house for Credit Default Swaps. Kaching!$! Just what we've looking for :P

http://cmegroup.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=...

As the article says:

"We are pleased to have successfully completed the U.S. regulatory review process," said CME Group Executive Chairman Terry Duffy. "We are confident our significant financial safeguards package and the proven counterparty risk management framework of CME Clearing, which has protected investors across a range of financial instruments more than 100 years, can bring stability to the CDS market.", [he said, licking his chops in anticipation of gobs of government-backed AIG and other naughty Financial Institution business.]

Re: 40,000 Foot Level

Re search for new country of residence, write me and we'll talk. The answer will depend on your resources, your interests, and your needs. When I have an idea of your situation, I can steer you in the right direction. Even though I came here, it may not be Bahamas I recommend.

FXP- the perverse ultra

QT- A year ago I was headed to Hawaii for a family vacation, and we were going back and forth on FXP. Now Shanghai and HK have been cut in half, and FXP has...ALSO been cut in half! A strategy expected to return +100% instead returns -50% (after briefly touching +300%). Inverse ultras should post caveats about performance perversity over any time period longer than one day. (Of course, readers here were set straight several months earlier than the general public.)

Re: FXP- the perverse ultra

But what was absolutely amazing, 2nd_avenue, was how almost everyone here, who been dabbling in FXP for months before, missed the insane rise of FXP during the Oct-Nov meltdown and then failed to spot the amazing opportunity to short it post the crisis. Methinks, thanks to David, and others, and just the novelty experience of that time, we'll not miss it again, in FXP, and the other Ultras.

Citigroup Inc.'s chief economist is leaving for Geithner

http://tinyurl.com/c4azyd

I have no proof but i would imagine this would have similar benefits to Citi, as Paulson leaving GS for DC.

Re: FXP- the perverse ultra

Mac- Insane it was. In 5 trading days it shot up to 180 from 90. You had a few seconds to catch 180. The following day it closed at 118, and has basically never looked back at 3 digits since. To be fair, most of us were too shell-shocked by the October market drop to play it anyway.

Re: Market Cycles

I believe Bills comment was financials followed by oil.
Just don't know about his time frame.

Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses

OK this just came out ..

IMO, this marks the new low of this Treasury Secretary, which doesn't reflect well on the new administration team.

http://tinyurl.com/dgt2zc

Re: TNA

2nd, CP- TNA was a big position for me. Taking off 1/3 was more rebalancing than anything else, thus the buys in ROM and UKK at yesterdays close. I am surprised by the strength in the semi's though, USD.
Signed a big contract today. Frankly I'm more happy for my guys than anything else. Thanks for helping me. Watching all of your posts has helped slow down the market for me. It's starting to remind me of playing sports, when the flow of the game/play was more important than anything else.

Re: TNA

CP- Looking at the average After hours volume for TNA for the past 3 months you might be right.

Re: Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses

Absolutely incredible. Geithner is a complete putz. If Obama doesn't fire him and Summers soon, his presidency will turn into a Baatan death march. I'm sure I am not the only supporter of his run for President who is becoming increasingly and irreversibly disenchanted with his promise of hope and change.

Elliot Spitzer has a good article on Slate about the Goldman Sachs connection.

http://www.slate.com/id/2213942/

And guess who was one of Obama's top campaign contributors?

And check this out for a bit of history:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/story/2009...

The second "cut" segment features Obama's right-hand economic policy advisor during one of his finest moments. Good grief, it is just sickening.

Goodbye P I

The last day of the Seattle Post Intelligencer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/mar/17/seattl...

"In Seattle, the Post Intelligencer's cross-town rival, the Seattle Times, is fighting for its life. Its publisher, Frank Blethen, warned in an email to managers last week that the current quarter "will probably be the all-time bad one in my career/lifetime". Blethen said there was little pleasure in picking up the PI's readers: "We find no joy in the loss of any journalistic voice.""

Re: credit cards and FICO scores.

The bizarre thing about this turn of gravity is now Americans have accepted the notion that zero balance cards are great so they max them out and keep them going when they skyrocket on 30% interest rates. You realize when you max your card or have your balance lowered to the existing balance that hits your credit score hard? A new FICO-08 scoring model is being shortly released that will have even more 'detail' and the new game will be deciphering that code to outwit it. For example, collections under $100 will be ignored. The classic parking ticket will now be a very hard bill to collect! We have become nation of plastic eaters, pay laters if at all.

Re: Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses

ALOHA !!

All these Harvard guys ever do is just "shuffle the deck"! They have become so enamored with the "rank and privilege" that they fail to even see the basics ... ITS NOT THEIR MONEY! They like HB&B just spend their entire careers playing MONOPOLY with OPM!

I took heat here way before OBAMA was ever elected for daring to say that he would not bring any "REAL" HOPE or CHANGE ... Its one thing to talk about it on a campaign trail, then it is 1000% tougher to deliver! In essence every President we have ever had excelled at only one thing ... GETTING ELECTED!

The current political and financial problems we are now facing have been building up like a huge tsunami of PROMISES that started many, many decades ago with long forgotten elected leaders back in 1913.

The more we abrogate responsibility for our lives to far off Washington DC the less REAL WEALTH any of us, including the rich, possess! The two party aristocracy is the root cause of our ills and to put them in charge of the "cure" is like putting Jack The Ripper in charge of CSI!

Lao Tzu 6th Century BC ... "The real art of governing consists, so far as possible, in doing nothing."

I would stand up and applaud OBAMA if he followed Lao Tzu's advice, but he won't because he was groomed by Henry Kissinger, the ultimate "meddler" of failed policy!

How many kids in America died for Kissinger's agenda? Some 58,000 ... LBJ in his latter years after his Presidency ended, struggled with that and I believe it finally killed him ... Kissinger though, must be a psychopath, because his failures in Vietnam and the Middle East just seem to roll right off his back!

OBAMA has packed his advisors full of Wall Street thugs and US FED deadbeats! That is not even remotely close to CHANGE or HOPE! But then again who do these Ivy Leaguers in DC work for anyway! It sure as hell isn't WE THE PEOPLE!

Its the MONEY STUPID! Always has been!

CHINA 'S GOLD

ALOHA !!

I had a phone conversation a couple days ago with a CEO kiwi(NZ) friend in the mining biz and he talked about CHINA GUARANTEES on the huge sums of US DEBT they are holding. What he says makes sense ...

Here ...

Please note the statement from the Chinese PM.

Wen earlier said he is "worried" about his country’s holdings of U.S. government debt. China held $696 billion of U.S. government securities at the end of last year, 46 percent more than 12 months earlier.

"I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets," he said at a press briefing in Beijing.

There is a need to clearly understand what is being said here. You can not guarantee a debt with another debt! What China is asking for requires a guarantee from the US repayment of its debt and the ONLY guarantee China can be seeking is gold, which is the only 'thing' that CAN GUARANTEE a debt. Even the phrase "to honor its promises" is a key phrase, since how do you honor a debt? Only by repayment in an acceptable commodity, one that is different from the debt itself, IE: an acceptable unit of account! China has the ability to enforce its request for a guarantee by buying gold, thereby meeting its own request for a guarantee, via the open market. Never mind the currency war, its settlement that is the REAL issue!

Cheers
Alan B

DEBT ON DEBT! Just what is ever settled with DEBT paid by DEBT? At some point the DEBT tsunami wipes out the entire CAPITAL built up by generations since WW2 ... OH WELL!! Counterparty liabilities abound in America!

When it settlement time comes so will the C WORD!

Show Trial Begins Today; "Rescued NOT on Trial"

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/03/financial-revol...

The Show Trial begins today...but the target rescued (Goldman via The Paulson Identity) doesn't appear on the stand...

Ha, just as I was thinking

Ha, just as I was thinking through the implications for China's desired acquisition of 18% of Rio - assets which include iron ore, rail and other important infrastructure - in Australia...

"BEIJING (AP) -- China rejected Coca-Cola Co.'s $2.5 billion bid to buy a major Chinese fruit juice maker Wednesday in a closely watched case that stirred nationalist opposition to the sale of a successful homegrown brand to foreigners...

Beijing's rejection of a foreign acquisition in a non-strategic business such as fruit juice could backfire abroad at a time when Chinese government companies want to invest in more sensitive industries such as mining."

I hope the Australian government finds the answer they need from such behaviour... quid pro quo indeed.

(and for those free marketeers out there, I do believe there are issues that necessitate government approval)

Re: TNA

"Signed a big contract today. Frankly I'm more happy for my guys than anything else."

Mark- Fantastic!

Re: Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses

n2s, thanks for the link. This kind of information will not disappear if we all keep doing like you and pointing out stuff. And yes, it is sickening. It would have disappeared in the pre internet days. We have a better chance this time of not letting MSM and the banksters win. I am not sure of the over/under but it is better....

Re: Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses

So let me understand-we give them 40Bil-they give back 165Mil (0.4%) AND the people still keep the bonus's??!! How about just saying no bonus. You didn't earn it and I know there is a contract but you know what-see me in court if you don't like it. When can we get management that can manage?

Re: Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses

number2son - Aren't those AIG CDO policies being paid off at 100 cents on the dollar prior to default on the underlying? In fact, aren't there CDO's being paid off that don't even have real skin in the game?

FAS @ 5.50

Betting this train picks up steam...

Mortgage apps up 30%

Re: Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses/Spitzer

I know a lot of people here don't care for Spitzer out of disdain for his double standards, but his opinion on the AIG-GS connection holds weight. The Slate link n2s posted is worth reading.

Re: Mortgage apps up 30%

Ours is one of them...actually, HAS been one of those on file for over two months now. We were notified our application had been "underwritten" back in January, but later found out that doesn't necessarily mean it was anywhere near a done deal. Still waiting for 5% @ no cost. Conforming/FICO above 800. No one's lending.

Re: Geithner: AIG to reimburse taxpayers for bonuses

Thanks N2S,

It seems apparent that the bonus fiasco was a smokescreen to draw attention away from the fact that the AIG TARP money is being used to repay GS and others for their participation in the CDO fraud. While all other segments of society and other market participants suffer, HB&B gets a 100 per cent refund!

I was a supporter of Obama but think it's time to draw a line in the sand. His administration must have a complete understanding of what is going on here - the rape and pillage of the US Treasury by the banking elite. Unless Obama walks the talk and takes action to shut down this fraud and put the taxpayer's money back in government coffers to the benefit of the People, I'm afraid there will be blood in the streets. Does the President really think the people will accept the notion that because of the financial crisis there are no dollars left for the social programs he was voted into office to put in place?

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