Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., May 12, 2009

Good morning.

SYT - Downgraded to Neutral @ JP Morgan

NKE - Downgraded to Sell @ Sterne Agee. Price Target = $43

"Make me a bed of fond memories
make me to lie down with a smile
everything that rises afterward falls
but all that dies has first to live.

as longing becomes love
as night turns to day
everything changes
joy will find a way"

"Practically every pundit is calling for a sell-off here. Markets, however, usually do the opposite of whatever is widely anticipated... it’s time to sit back and take in the broader picture. There are many developments taking shape."

Vinod- That sounds like what you're already doing. So I'm going to join you. Completely in cash.

Not sure if its a headfake yet. they are off their pre-market highs.

the Mataxas line in gold is still holding,
teh early session jump above $920 was great to see, but the sudden slump back towards the launch point at $915 is a possible problem. lets hope the dam breaks on the next push against $920 resistance or momentum will start to wane.

it seems like every TA and newsletter writer out there is pointing to a breach of $920 before any serious rally can start. a close or 2 above that line would certainly give an all clear signal, but for now we are just bouncing back and forth.

still seems like any breach or fall will likely be sudden and dramatic, taking us well above $930 in a heart beat or below $900 in the blink of an eye.....

RE:> The Government has taken tax up to 50 per
cent, and if it goes to 51, I will be back in
America. I will not pay the Government more
than I get. No way, ever.

Some ugly populism going on over there. By the very same man who led Britain down this road to insanity and aided and abetted the London financial crowd.

Never before in my short life have I seen such useless and ineffective people who pretended to govern responsibly in our name.

Kaimu's remarks concerning undemocratic states being better economic governors gives me an idea of the road we are all heading down.

Farmer Mac
AGM spike up on volume this morning after noticeable move and increased volume yesterday . . . didn't see any news . . . (DISC: Have a Long position)
Submitted by Seamus (155 comments) on Wed, 05/06/2009 - 10:41 #26381
****************************************

MAY 12 Farmer Mac Reports First Quarter Results--Earnings of $33 Million Bring Capital Surplus to $67 Million--Core Earnings Improve to $4.8 MIllion

http://www.farmermac.com/

Taking the 120% move right out of the blocks this morning.
Selling all-- Out at $7.99

For anyone interested in the Dow/Gold ratio such as Kaimu etc.

Now medium term chart has support / resistance levels.

http://tinyurl.com/2sp36

Congrats!

Basic metals, oil, miners are up this morning, but financials are down. If I owned miners I'd hold on for a while watching the price closely for signs of weakness. I'm keeping gold for now.

My deep condolences Bill on the loss of your friend. Losses leave holes in our lives--may the support and care of those here help fill it a little.
With care and thankfulness for you,
salty

took off at 16.91
locking profits today

SLM hit stink bid at 5.50 while I was away. Missed big dip.

Locked profit on QID with 37 stop loss will let it ride

FAZ is back to manageable very small loss at present. May switch to FAS today.

COW/DBA have been hot letting it ride.

VZ holding on OK

edit-off FAZ at 5.54 from 5.65. Take the small loss.....took the old girl for a weekender and cant say I enjoyed the ride. Lesson learned.....again. Even it goes up a lot from here I feel good with the sell.

took off QID at 37.72 too.....Bills words ring in my head. Everyone is predicting a slide....opposite usually occurs.

UNG $13 Oct put @ .95 (if it should be at this price as we head into winter, I'll take it)

TCK $7.5 Nov put @ .58. I don't see hard assets falling as hard as they did due to credit issues earlier.

Why the big markup on your play Seamus?

CGA - looked at it yesterday. Up 13% today.

Does agro equity behave like gold and oil when the market or USD is going down?

edit: question answered on CGA. Released earnings today. net for the first quarter doubled over that of 1stQ 2008.

Catching a bid. Thoughts?

The Dow went sideways from April 1 to May 1 between roughly 7,800 and 8,200. When it punched through resistance at 8,200 I was watching for a blowout. That didn't happen and now I'm thinking the market will continue to go sideways but between 8,300 and 8,500. Who knows? This is certainly not a prediction. I think the market is showing uncertainty, not fear and not greed. Like many players, I don't really like the numbers that are coming out and I don't trust what government and the talking heads are saying. I don't buy the idea that a slowdown in the rate of descent is a wonderful thing. To put in my two cents, I think the market is on thin ice and will retest the lows before it goes spectacularly higher. So I am waiting patiently and watchfully, like a spider.

See, I knew the rotation was on!

Mark-
just trying to sell some spikes. Catch small discounts along the way while I trade the position. I have every intention of staying long KGC.

This community has a definite bias for miners, but it is somewhat entertaining to listen to the daily change in sentiment. Yesterday, I believe, some were calling for a major correction in gold/miners. Today there is strength. I am just trying to trade prices as miners seem to be traded best in this manner. I have been booking 3 to 5 % gains fairly regular with UXG/KGC and I am pleased with that.

Seems to be swing trading Les. I am fairly comfortable holding these stocks if they go down some so I have been holding for longer periods. KGC is well vetted by CTAB if you havent seen the report already its worth a read.

For a day trade. Sets up easy for exit if it goes that way. Thanks for bringing it to my table group.

TMF suggests a buy on SBB, a thinly traded small cap short.

look at the difference in trading behaviour between yesterday and today.

Haven't see this go up two days in a row for a long long time...

I've been watching this one since it fell into it's hole. Yesterday it showed signs of life made the a-up scenarios and was a day trade.

I will check back with this one tomorrow.

'Zilla I hope it works out as a daytrade but I'm not hopeful about it's chances today. Made the A-down plus tech's a wreck.

BTW I helped my friend's mutual fund liquidate about a zillion dollars worth of this one PRIOR to it's collapse. That makes me a good boy!

Today I bought and sold Yamana 3 times and made money all 3 times. Not a heck of a lot, but money.

It used to be that BC would say... do not sell untill rsi rolls over back into the 70 range other wise you may miss a protracted rise in price. That was before he reentered the business and is now constrained from offerring free advice
peace

of course based on that system, I would have already sold AUY and missed a rise!

It is natural to expect that in order to support the USD and the Bond market, equities will be crushed and the .HUI along with it.

However, I am wondering whether the usual 'flight to safety' into Treasuries might not follow according to the old ways. Certainly money will flow in that direction but I am getting the sense that bullion and miners will not take the same kind of pounding as in Fall 2008. The outlook for the USD is now in focus.

The early 2009 market decline (before the March 9th pumps were turned on) was not reflected in the mining stocks, hmm?

I also feel that sell button calling, but may not take as much off the table, if any.

@ BillySundance

Agreed.

EIA: US 2Q Oil Use Revised -260,000 B/D Vs April Forecast
http://tinyurl.com/qaxuvf
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Citing "a continuing weak economy," government forecasters said Tuesday U.S. oil demand in the current quarter 2009 will be 18.64 million barrels a day, down more than 1 million barrels a day, or 5.3% below a year ago.

yes,

my idea has been for some time that a strong volume surge higher is needed in teh miners to sever any links to the general equity markets. but such a surge on strong volume has not occured, and would be predicated by strongly rising gold prices that would allow the HUI and such to hitch a ride. otherwise the negative momentum of the market will drag the miners down.

we need to remember very very clearly that up until about june 2008 most gold bugs and newsletter writers believed the US dollar would tank while gold and gold stocks would be spared in a market crash. jim rogers, don cox, peter schiff, sprott and the like were wrong in more ways than one, but thats not the disturbing part, as we have seen, anyone can make mistakes, these men shouldnt be hated on because they had the balls to make a call. no my concern is the obfuscation after the fact, where there was not a clear admission that they were wrong, that they oversaw clients taking double digit losses and simply explained away the fact that it was "liquidation" or "hedge fund redemptions". how these men were so aware of hte reasons for a collapse in commodities they never forsaw is beyond me.

so we sit at the precipie of yet another large run-up and everyone is turning bearish, people are gun-shy not wanting to get on the wrong side of the trade, even CNBC is hosting carefully worded bylines about how the markets have gone up "too far too fast" despite falling too low too suddenly months earlier.

all sorts of nonsense calls are being made about what stocks will do what, and i think none of us or them actually know. they probally are slightly invested w/ considerable cash on the sidelines thinking they are smarter than the average bear ready to buy the dips. too bad theres many many bears thinking the same thing.

eventually the market will crack downwards hard, and there will be no shortage of back-slapping going around about getting the call right and deploying cash to buy the dips. markets tend not to act the way we envision, so who thinks things will work out so neatly and allow everyone on board?

volume is weak, period for the miners, so unless gold surges hard we will fall. its that simple. glad to see them hanging in today w/ gold up and hte market weak. always good to see. but the "t's" are not all crossed.

so to gold i ask: wheres the beef?

Another one of my sell limit orders was triggered this morning, selling 100 shares of SKF at $45.10 which I bought at $43.10 last week. I still have 250 shares left and my next sell limit order is at $47.95. As I wrote yesterday, I think the financials will have only a minor pullback now with XLF falling, say, to $10, (as opposed to going to March lows of $6), and so I want to sell all my SKF gradually during this pullback and then re-load once S&P reaches 950 again (which I think it will because the prospect of a positive GDP growth in 4Q2009 will keep pulling S&P above 900).

Another thing I was doing over the past few weeks is I was gradually going long gold miners, by first scaling into GG July $40 calls and then, finally, selling a big chunk of GG June $30 puts (which I sold at $3.60 when GG was $28 and which are now trading at $0.88). Today, a sell limit order was triggered for the last chunk of GG calls, selling 8 contracts at $0.9 which I bought at $0.3 a couple of weeks ago. The percentage gain on this trade is nice, but the absolute gain is OK -- the standard gain I am looking for on a trade. My next sell limit order is at $1.80 for 4 contracts I bought at $0.9.

Dr Cosa,

I like your altitudes towards gold, not too hot and not too cold. Keeping it real.

Justin

"We are actually going to have to invade Pakistan"

Yes, this is what I'm thinking as well, good enough reason for me to keep gold a bit longer.

So what if it tanks, it would only be the thousandth time I've held too long. I'm also thinking there's more printy printy, spendy spendy around the corner.

Les- My take on Bill's 1145 am post yesterday was a target of 2% below the (5/11) 1145 am level on the S&P500, which would be 895. We touched 896 today. So my guess is no one's aggressively buying any puts yet. JMO.

ditto with DAVID!!

2nd I struggle with this often too. Way more than you. You always tell me "be happy with a profit", I am returning the advice. :')

...

Where's the beef?

Couldn't agree more, jim rogers, don cox, peter schiff, sprott and the like make me extremely nervous with their calls for higher POG.

But then again, even a stopped clock is correct twice each day.

You are probably right Sundance. I have just been locking profits where possible in this enviroment. My personal take is that we are at an inflection point at S&P 900 and can easily go either way. I have no strong bias at the current moment.

took half off the table of all my Gold stocks. Probably will jump in again once I see some real volume. Although...I must say I'm very happy with Western Goldfields and New Gold today... thats what I like to see.

On antoher note...Really appreciate all of your insights, love this forum and love the honesty. Thank you Bill and all of you for making this site what it is!

I believe that if the market can stay healthy here you may be correct. Someone mentioned SLM as an OBAMA play. That makes a lot of sense to me. SLM will not be allowed to fail under OBAMA. A 2 bagger is possible with this one. I will keep trading it.

Wow, just this morning I was a bit remorseful for having closed out the COF and JPM shorts a tad too early.........What a difference a few hours makes. Glad to have not gotten caught up in the backdraft of this afternoon mini-squeeze!

Always amazing to see how hb&b can paint the tape and manufacture a good close for dow and s&p, while the Nasdaq lags.

I guess eventually, once the banks have all diluted at inflated prices, the buying programs will become selling programs.

I am building onto my bearish/short positions on this runup. thx ppt for making it so obvious.

During the first 3/4 of this rally, financials were bought and gold miners were sold. Today (and yesterday) the gold miners are bought and the financials are sold. If the market were indeed preparing for a major pullback, then gold miners would be the last "to leave the floor" as Bill taught us, and I think this is what we are seeing now.

NYU- If you have time, take a look at the chart for FLR. Am I seeing what I think? No position yet...

................
edit off SRS at 21.80

i strongly suggest anyone interested in geo-politics check out juan cole's blog, daily updates packed with solid links and fantastic analysis.

http://www.juancole.com/

he confirms as do others that the destabilization of pakistan while a possibility has been framed in unsubstantiated terms, and is nothing but fear mongering at this point.

pakistan has one of the largest armies in the world, they are generally sympathetic to military dictatorships, not taliban rule. most of the population are not aligned with or in favour of rule by the taliban, so for any take over scenario it would be the equivalent of rhode island taking over the United States simply because they were quite violent... it cant logistically happen.

nukes are not under remote danger of falling into taliban hands unless the army becomes sympathetic to a regime that is by its very nature against organized military forces not aligned under strict islamic sharia guidelines. it would be cannibalizing itself if the army sided w/ the taliban.

theres no indication the taliban can or will take over pakistan, but they can destabilize it, cause havoc and occupy considerable portions of the northern end of the state for certain. the army is in control in pakistan, no one else. should the army go dark, then its an entirely different situation.

Yes Barry. I see profits! :P

Def looks like a inverse h&s and a confirmed breakout. But I am not an expert so it would be like asking Ferris Bueller a math question.

are you waiting for it to test the breakout area or already in?

"David- Always impressed with your emotional control."

2nd_ave -- it is easy to have emotional control when one uses VERY small position sizes to scale in. I learned that from you, and will always be thankful to you for that lesson. The SKF trade was a clear example of that -- had I used larger position sizes, I would have been VERY worried about the 35% straight line plunge in SKF that occurred since I started buying SKF, and I probably would have stopped buying sooner and would have missed the SKF jump yesterday and this morning. As it is, however, I only *started* becoming uncomfortable with my SKF position this weekend, after still having bought some on Friday at $38.77. Now I'll be happy to see SKF fall below $40 (which will give me a chance to re-load), and will also be happy to see SKF rise to $60 (which will give me a chance to completely close my position with a decent total profit on all my small trades). Being happy about ANY market move is the key to success! :)

Above is Scott McNealy's notion about the state of privacy.

He's mostly right, but if you're interested in protecting what's left of your privacy, you might consider this:

I have just learned of one search engine which claims NOT save your search history (for possible delivery to government? - as Google did in China) NOR save your IP address. They don't place any unnecessary cookies (from friendly advertisers) on your PC.

It's based in Europe, where there have been some serious efforts to protect privacy:

http://us2.ixquick.com/eng/

It seems to work quite well. (PS: don't tell anyone who told you about this ...)

Vinod,

What is your source for this?

Regardless of oil interests, I must admit the Taliban with nukes makes me very uncomfortable.

ALOHA !!

It is obvious that if America and its huge military complex has to escalate its WAR ON TERROR then either one of two choices will have to be made. To do anything on the ground level will ultimately require more troops and if voluntary service does not keep up with troop requirements then a DRAFT must be instituted. The Bush regime got around the DRAFT by hiring BLACKWATER mercenaries at a quadruple the cost of regular Army personnel. If there are domestic issues within the US borders at the same time as international disputes escalate then the DRAFT will be considered.

The cheaper alternative to more men and more money is NUKES. With a nuke it does not matter what the terrain looks like and it does not matter where the enemy hides. The downside would be global condemnation unless perhaps another 9/11 occurred and if this 9/11 used a small nuke then ANYTHING GOES. Perhaps the US Air Force would use tactical bunker buster nukes to take out Pakistan's nuke storage bunkers. This would eliminate a Taliban nuke threat provided the targets are verifiable before and after. The nuking of Pakistan could be done by Israel. Israel has more to lose in this scenario and I am sure the USA would not mind "lending" the Israelis some spare tactical nukes if Israel agrees to take the heat. In any case it would behoove the US STATE DEPT to make this into a retaliation for some terrorist event that can be tied to the Taliban or the Pakistani government.

All of this is dependent on many changing variables, but future use of US troops will be very limited unless a DRAFT is instituted, which can only be done if the US CONgress feels there is public mandate to pass such a vote. Not sure what circumstances would prompt the US CONgress into believing there is a mandate by the public? It would have to be something extraordinary at this stage. A worse 9/11?

Interesting times and it just keeps getting more complex for the elite jugglers of Empire.

Basically, the US EMPIRE cannot afford to play Empire any more ...

I realized that RSI(21) of $NYA200R (% of NYSE above 200 day SMA) exceeded 70 and it going down. This was the highest in 3 years. The second highest was mid May 2008 (68), the third highest in end of Feb 2007 (67). Interesting. Now, this is a data mining so it may not hold but still interesting.
Similar results with RSI(21) of $SPX200R but RSI(21) of $NDX200R doen't work.

ALOHA !!

The US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT for May 11th shows a $547BIL USD deficit between what has been spent by the US GOVERNMENT for FY 2009 so far and what has been received as DEBT and TAX REVENUES.

FY 2009 BREAKDOWN:

Total SPENT = $7.271TRIL USD

Total DEBT(created) = $5.455TRIL USD
Total TAX DEPOSITS(stolen) = $1.270TRIL USD

Why so harsh on poor old Timmy Kaimu? They're doing the best they can ... GOVERNMENT never "earns" anything. Never has ... never will! GOVERNMENT steals ... PERIOD!

So obviously the problem with America and the OBAMA regime is SPENDING! WOW, what a shock and aren't we all surprised to see that it does not matter what party or who is in office they always SPEND like drunken sailors.

So future generations will have to deal with the DEBT SERVICE on $5.455TRIL USD that the OBAMA regime has created in the last seven months. The same future generations will have to add to that DEBT SERVICE the $3.6TRIL USD FY 2010 OBAMA BUDGET he has rammed through the DEM majority US CONgress. Add to that the $13.6TRIL USD EXTERNAL DEBT load that must either be paid for with more DEBT or more US exports. While many here point out that IMPORTS have dropped what of EXPORTS? And does a drop in IMPORTS mean something positive on a fundamental basis or does it mean Americans are too broke to buy IMPORTS any more or does it mean the cost of IMPORTS has dropped. Its deeper than the usual HEADLINE news. Americans depend on a lot of IMPORTS, two of which are FOOD and OIL.

DEBT ATTRITION ... it is killing the average American's propensity to spend and stay solvent and it will also strangle the US GOVERNMENT. There is no immunity and every Empire succumbs to it ...

Or maybe Israel could provide U.S. tactical nukes to India. Harder to track that back to Team Obama and the Fed ...

Regarding shrinking trade deficit, exports won't increase if Ben can continue, for now, to prop the FRN against other major fiat currencies. Imports took a tumble last month because U.S. consumers are broke. Mix in IMF and big sovereign nations marginalizing the FRN, Brazil trading with China, and it all starts to look like some form of isolationism for the U.S. whether we like it or not.

"exports won't increase if Ben can continue, for now, to prop the FRN against other major fiat currencies."

I don't understand why all the interest of propping the FRN against other major currencies, pegging, etc. This is a primary reason we've been running trade deficits for as long as I can remember.

Meredith Whitney, always interesting to listen to..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1120084432&p...

Nothing is obvious.

There are a number of possibilities.

A. Your scenario may be colored by your memories of Viet Nam or other past confrontations.

B. What you describe is true.

C. Neither of the above, but something totally different.

Had there been no 9/11 attacks your assumptions may be more acceptable.

Regardless of what the truth may be, people tend to believe what they want to believe or what fits with their preconceived ideas of reality.

My own perception is that the Taliban is not a nice bunch nor are they open to compromise.

It's so in economics and also in history and world events.

Grym
1. Here is the source
2. Today’s post by Jock has few link which has the best information ne can learn from
3. This blog is about market so, in future I will make sure I only post about market
http://tinyurl.com/qvalqu
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Durand_Line
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtunistan

Grym -

Your criteria invalides all thought itself. Now what?

Chickenpookie -

China pegs to FRN and dumps exports into the U.S. while Greenspan holds rates too low for too long leading to over consumption of said exports. China buys up $1 trillion on U.S. debt to support this arrangement. Music stops (housing bubble pops as Fannie and Freddie implode and the derivatives/securitization debt collapses the global financial 'system'). Trade gap goes poof due to severe contraction of consumer consumption of imports. As Dylan sang, the times they are a changin' ....

YAL or Young Americans for Liberty have also started to notice and respond.

http://www.voteronpaul.com/newsDetail.php?YAL-Prof...

In early March he said it was a good time to buy stocks. What a prediction! Any thoughts from anyone?

"What a prediction! Any thoughts from anyone?"

The market apparently responded to Pres. Obama's encouraging response. Looking about me now, I'm growing concerned about what I'm observing... Today was the second day in a row of losses... Where's the beef?

"I really hope you're observation is correct however, is there an explanation for the increase in GDP over the period, and are those forces still in effect?"

:( You've caught me out, Pookie. I rationalized that concern, myself, by considering the varied projections for GDP decline that are out there. I'd be worried if anyone was projecting 25%-50% declines but thing is, no one is forecasting anything beyond 2-5% down? That's nothing.

GDP - "no one is forecasting anything beyond 2-5% down?"

Well let's hope so. BTW - I'm thinking the FRN is backed by GDP, since the gold standard was dropped.

I went poking around and found this right off... Honestly, I wasn't looking for trouble.... it found me:

"May 12th

SINGAPORE — To go out in a small boat along Singapore’s coast now is to feel like a mouse tiptoeing through an endless herd of slumbering elephants.

One of the largest fleets of ships ever gathered idles here just outside one of the world’s busiest ports, marooned by the receding tide of global trade. There may be tentative signs of economic recovery in spots around the globe, but few here.

Hundreds of cargo ships — some up to 300,000 tons, with many weighing more than the entire 130-ship Spanish Armada — seem to perch on top of the water rather than in it, their red rudders and bulbous noses, submerged when the vessels are loaded, sticking a dozen feet out of the water.

So many ships have congregated here — 735, according to AIS Live tracking service of Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research, a ship tracking service based in London — that shipping lines are becoming concerned about near misses and collisions in one of the world’s most congested waterways, the Strait of Malacca, which separates Malaysia and Singapore from Indonesia. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/business/global/...

FDIC PLANNING FOR HUGE BANK FAILURE?
By TPC. |
Late reports this evening are citing an anonymous source that says the FDIC is preparing some sort of superfund that could handle the failure of a large “systemically important financial institution.”

Reuters reports:

“Another source familiar with the FDIC’s plans said on Tuesday that the agency was considering seeking to create a new fund to help deal with any resolution of systemically important financial institutions.”

As regular readers know, the recent government induced rally created the perfect environment in which to raise capital, but these capital raises only place band aids on axe wounds. The government knows real estate losses and credit card loss are mounting. They also know the TALF & PPIP will not succeed as the banks have no incentive to sell these assets. They know they can’t prop up 8,000 banks forever. The only resolution: FDIC receivership. In this case, a rather large one….
http://pragcap.com/fdic-planning-for-huge-bank-fai...

This is the relevant article from Reuters... http://tinyurl.com/qc5vzk

The Full Faith Of The DMCA

Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:31 PM
Now that Merrill Lynch has upgraded every single REIT and has a price target of +/- infinity, (conveniently pocketing over $100 million in the process), the company can focus on more pressing issues at hand. And no, not redecorating Thain's legacy office in the neo-uber-criminal style). Instead, the bank has sent not one, not two, but a whopping six cease and desist order to Zero Hedge. As the recently acquired bank can finally afford to pay lawyers again compliments of Schmidt and Sakwa, it has decided to pursue the source of all evil: all those David Rosenberg posts Zero Hedge has published, that seek to educate and provide some color to otherwise confused and CNBC abused readers and investors.

If it is any consolation, now that David is literally out of the building, ML can sleep soundly that ZH will only focus on the bank's daily REIT upgrades (no, we have not forgotten about those) as it is alas the only source amusement coming out of doomed mother Merrill.

So, dear readers, please be aware that the following six posts will be removed at some point tonight as Zero Hedge is unable to underwrite and collect on average $10 million per REIT dilution events and thus afford any lawyers (except potentially for White & Case's Tom Lauria).

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/parting-thou...
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/shooting-sho...
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/look-back-at...
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/are-fed-and-...
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/spin-on-6-gd...
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/busy-day-for...

As for the 500 or so websites that fervently and automatically repost and redistribute ZH content, well, those we have no control over.

2nd- I still feel our greatest asset is the ability to move in and out of positions without having to unwind a huge stake.

Here's a link to a weekly railcar loading report:

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Down 16% this year...

Don't forget that post WWII the govt was supposedly still 'constrained' by a gold standard, so there may have been more impetus to keep deficits under control. Sky's the limit now.

Also, it feels like the deficit will come in closer to $2T and GDP will be closer to $13.5T, which would then approaching 15% of GDP. At what point would it be considered too much?

Mark - We'll see, I could be misreading the indicators just before the next leg up....?

I feel a heightened need for caution based upon my read of the past two days ticker, backed by the short ETF support from my crystal ball.

Ventilation Blues, I am down to a core position in WGW now (5000 shares) at a cost basis of $1.5. Will hold it until Bill says that gold miners have reached an intermediate-term peak and will sell his own positions.

What strikes me about these articles is Rosenbergs comparisons to the depression. Comparing the recent lows to 1932 lows, and talking about the great rallies throughout the thirties, similar to Bill does. But those 1932 lows were two and half years after the crash, and here we are still a mere 7 months since the crash.

Are we really to believe that our financial engineering has helped us to purge all the preceeding wrongs in 1/4 the time? Isn't it more likely the the financial engineering a) made the preceding wrongs even greater than in the 1920's and b) is being used to put lipstick on a pig? Can financial engineering really pull us out of this less scathed than the 30 month plunge enjoyed by the markets from '29 to '32?

just venting as usual...

http://tinyurl.com/qw68dr

"The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, with Nevada, Florida and California showing the highest rates, according to data released Wednesday."

Check out tahoe/reno foreclosures-- It is shocking
http://tinyurl.com/ow93ok

GDP is very strictly dependent on the measure of inflation used to normalize nominal GDP to "real" GDP.

By many measures (see shadowstats.com), the CPI has been adjusted and massaged to the point where it grossly understates inflation by several percentage points per year. Successive administrations (both parties) have had it in their interest to distort CPI, this is truly a bipartisan bunch of lies.

Given inflation is vastly understated, GDP is overstated. With overstated GDP, any measure of comparison of debt to GDP is quite optimistic.

Mackinaw, do you believe the CPI is accurate? After all the "hedonic adjustments" done over all these years? With the government wanting to decrease social security payments in a "painless" way? If we assume we lose 2% per year off GDP because of problems with CPI since Bush I, that means our GDP is 36% overstated (not exactly right, but close enough) compared to what it should have been.

The market might try to rally into some overhead resistance but the house is built on straws.

I think the forest still looks like:
1. people are still losing jobs
2. housing is still deteriorating but the truth is being hidden
3. gold & commodities about to be the last dancer on the floor
4. gm, chrysler, their employees, and suppliers are in big doodoo
5. toxic assets still sitting there
6. banks are diluting at common shareholder expense and will struggle to make earnings outside of 1 time events
7. I can prob keep going but will stop.

Below are the industry performances for May 12. Our gracious host here has said Gold would be the last item to fly off the shelves. i think it may have begun, as I cannot see a new bull market when the only thing in bull mode are metals and liquids coming out of the ground.

Industry performance for Tuesday May 12:
Gold 3.57%
Drugs 2.08%
Health Care 1.40%
Health Care Products 1.00%
Utilities 0.87%
Oil Services 0.70%
Oil 0.59%
Chemicals 0.55%
Insurance 0.43%
Commodities 0.13%
Network -0.20%
Comp. Tech -0.42%
Telecoms -0.64%
Natural Gas -0.65%
Hardware -0.85%
REITs -0.88%
Retailers -0.91%
Biotechs -1.19%
Internet -1.27%
Broker Dealers -1.58%
Hospitals -1.76%
Disk Drives -2.37%
Semis -2.54%
Transport -2.82%
Paper -2.93%
Banks -4.18%
Airlines -4.29%
*source of data: http://tinyurl.com/py2c2m

ALOHA !!

Vinod ... Your FED chart depicts the exact scene that I report on the US PAYROLL TAX WITHHOLDING charts. As I reported over seven months ago the prior breakdown in tax revenues(receipts)was back in 2001/2002 which marked the USDX high of 120. Now the receipts have crashed even worse than 2001/2002 and this marked the USDX high of 88. If the current collapse is as bad as the 2001/2002 collapse then that would put the USDX down to 42! Anyone care to guess where POG would be? Not 1000!

The trillions mentioned in the media about deficits is small compared to the actual trillions reported in the US TREASURY DAILY and the EXTERNAL DEBT reports. I am not sure why the US financial media misses that completely, other than they are just plain inept! I guess I answered my own question!

Whats tied to all this? The US Sovereign Credit rating for one and what foreigners will risk "unofficially or officially" on further US DEBT accumulation. What would you do if your largest debtor lost his income?

TIMMY?

Then you get this tripe about how the US FED believes the rise in Treasury yields is a sign the economy is recovering. I see it as a bad sign for those who hold US DEBT. It means they need a higher yield in order to be persuaded to take on the more highly risky US DEBT. This is definitely not good news for real estate resets coming. So? Hummmm ... more PUMP N DUMP by our friendly neighborhood MIDDLEMAN the US FED! WOW ... that FED Balance Sheet looks like a BUBBLE of toxic crap! It would serve the official BUBBLE BLOWERS(in the old days that would conjure up thoughts of Lawrence Welk) right ... Live by the sword ... die by the sword!

What is being reported by these idiots is pure 100% USDX SPIN!!! Orwell would be proud!

Fed Views Jump in Treasury Yields as Sign of Better Outlook
By Scott Lanman and Steve Matthews

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve considers the recent jump in Treasury yields more as a reflection of a better economic outlook than a signal it needs to step up purchases of U.S. government debt, according to central bank officials who declined to be identified.

It’s too early to judge the effectiveness of the Fed’s $300 billion plan to buy Treasuries even after 10-year yields climbed 0.65 percentage point since the initiative began in March, the officials said. They added that the goal is to stimulate private lending, rather than to target government- bond rates.

The Fed officials’ stance contradicts the view of firms including BlackRock Inc. that have predicted the rise in yields will prompt the central bank to announce an increase in the size of the program as soon as next month.END

Well we can continue to watch the four horseman.

I was a little consternated by SLM yesterday, which successfully shook me out before rallying hard. From the data you've provided NY this was a special case. sheesh, why do I have to pick the hard ones? (and why wasn't I faster to react? Got angry when I realised i suffered that deer caught in headlights syndrome)

The stories of whatever reason needed to explain oil's rise sounds like another effort to pump the market. Here's Bill in August 2008:

"After the Financials (XLF) peaked on October 5, 2007 at 35.97, before plunging -53.4% to 16.77 on July 15, there were carefully crafted stories of oil shortages, refinery shortages, and the like, which served to move that capital from XLF to XLE (the energy sector). XLE then moved from a low of 62.97 on Jan 23 to a high of 91.42 on May 21. That move kept the major equity market indexes from outright collapse, even though the DJIA index did manage to fall -23.7% from a high of 14198 set on October 11 to a low of 10828 on July 15. The total capital transferred from Financials to Energy was in the mega trillions."

Is HB&B creating the same scenario again?

Yesterday, consumer staples (XLP, CL, JNJ, PG, etc) were strong despite the early day market weakness.

Possible rotation into a sector that carries less risk in anticipation of a market pause/consolidation.

I don't understand why all the interest of propping the FRN against other major currencies, pegging, etc. This is a primary reason we've been running trade deficits for as long as I can remember.

CP,

My guess is that the Fed needs to prevent the inflationary effect of a plunging dollar or their bank support program would be doomed. (IMO it is anyway, but...)

Maybe I should just go play golf.

Grym - "prevent the inflationary effect of a plunging dollar or their bank support program would be doomed."

I thought falling asset prices are causing the banking sector heartache? A weaker dollar should relieve the pressure, no?

Retail Sales - We need more printy-printy, spendy-spendy.

This signal is worthless. I followed it and it triggered alerts in the end of march and then in early april, etc. Yes, it shows that the spring is coiled but doesn't help with the timing. Only the trend following indicators are working now, and now they are slowly turning. This is the real red alert.

"For the first time since the Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Survey began in 2007, investors are forecasting that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will climb."

Any president who really is for the people, and thus against hb&b, would not have a long tenure. what obama has taught me is that to put hope into 1 man to fight the slave masters (hb&b) was stupid on my part.

And secondly, American people are to blame. When a group of people steals our money and freedom in broad daylight, yet the people of this country are too lazy/passive and more afraid of losing their stupidly insignificant 9-5 job, more than they are of losing their freedoms, there is no one left to blame but ourselves.

I've learned there is a connection between the higher energy prices and the fall of the dollar. As traders, many of you probably know that already. Last Summer when oil prices were at their highest, the dollar hit a low of 72ish. If the value of the buck falls then it is a given that the Saudis, etc have to demand more dollars for the oil they send to us. I've noticed the media always puts some type of spin on it...lower/higher reserves, consumer feels better, economy recovering. I don't think our government wants to highlight the falling buck. It wasn't but a couple of months ago that the dollar was at 88/89. We are now at 82.

I see a lot of you talking about "rotation" which I'm not familiar with...but I gather it is the movement of profits/money from one sector to another. I think it is likely that lots of investors are looking for profits right now. A move to energy/agriculture/metals seems like a natural move to me. Because of the falling buck, silver/gold will continue to move to the upside as well.

I see this happening in almost every stock. This is sickening for retail investors...

========
Today, the EU announced a fine of $1.45 billion levied against Intel (INTC) for predatory pricing practices that disadvantaged Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Intel said it would appeal. With advance knowledge, however, some traders sold INTC heavily for the past couple days. Regulators ought to investigate and prosecute.
=========

RE:>And secondly, American people are to blame. When a group of people steals our money and freedom in broad daylight, yet the people of this country are too lazy/passive and more afraid of losing their stupidly insignificant 9-5 job, more than they are of losing their freedoms, there is no one left to blame but ourselves.

But it is such a powerful notion NY! The looks I get when I tell people I don't have a job, that I've used university not as a technical college but as a place of learning (I've dipped in and out of so many subjects its not funny), my dad calls me "jack of all trades, master of none" - a pejorative term.

I've learned from English Literature studies that the "ideal renaissance man" (sorry ladies, no personal insult intended and one should remember Queen Elizabeth 1st as the ideal renaissance woman) was fluent in so many skills. Poetry/literature (which meant a classical education to boot), courtier, soldier, politician. These are the people I look up to. I tend not to discuss the inadequacies of our modern "professional specialist" - a means of bargaining for more money, but so empty of what the human potential could be if we were all renaissance people.

Hopefully this doesn't lead us to another one of those -733pt days like Oct 15th was, I'd much rather see just a brief pause before resuming the advance.

Got my finger on the short button though...

"Today, the EU announced a fine of $1.45 billion levied against Intel (INTC) for predatory pricing practices"

Intel is not a nice company, I have direct knowledge of this.

RE:>or would there be marshal law enforced?

NY, you know you're on the verge of being a police state, don't you?

The number of protest meetings in private houses being met with armed police entries is not coincidental I think.

:)

the retail report was not shocking. I cannot believe that bit of cloudy news was enough to drop the indices so hard. this also feels manufactured. glad i have been building my short positions.

Did anyone catch the Daily Show last night questioning ASU students as to why they though Obama was not entitled to an honorary degree at their top notch elite institution? Where Golf Management is a major.....

We have morons as university students. Drunk morons. Vacuous morons.
At least we do at ASU.

One answer: "Honorary degrees should be reserved for important people, like heads of state." Sheer genius.

Good luck Arizona.....you have a new crop of drunk burger flippers on the way.

Many years ago, my brother wrote to the Arizona State admissions office asking for an application. He got back a letter telling him he was accepted. Needless to say, he elected to go to college elsewhere.

I don't which way the S&P is going, so will stick to covered calls and puts on companies I wanna buy for the moment and stop speculating. Concerns me that we may bounce back hard come 2Q earnings. Gawd knows why we would.

POT - Price Target Raised from $110 to $150 @ RBC. Outperform

just testing the bears.

Odd too that Yamana and SLW are exactly the same price right now

I agree CP! This time dump and pump. For once I got the timing right and sold my TZA for a nice profit this morning. I'm watching the $USD for signs of life. Holding a little SCO as I play with fire here.

If the previous down cycle (2/9-3/9/09) is a guide, GDX should not drop until later in the sell off (when margin calls come in). So, I'm holding to my gains.

BTW, if there is no reversal later in the day, SPX and NYA will join NDX in MACD sell signal and NDX will place a lower low.

This the first time we will have 3 days down on SP and a severe sell off since 3/9/09.

One more thing, FXI produced a huge bearish tail couple of days ago.

Good luck to all and especially the bears.

CP/David,
Was there a significant market event yesterday at 1pm EST? I was out so didn't get a chance to check. In any case, the DJI turned then, and so did IYR, XLF. Still not sure why. The interesting thing is that if you cut out the 1pm-4pm trade yesterday, today's open is a continuation of the same trend that was abruptly interrupted at 1pm yesterday (5-period moving average slopes, price action). Any theories??
Thanks,
--JTP

...

Simple explanation, since a lion share of mkts volume is daytrading, short covering in PM triggered a spike. It was not a reversal as we see it clearly today. Probably there will be a similar event later today.
However, my indicators show record low retail short levels (lowest since 2003) so it will take a lot of selling to bring swing trade shorts to the average levels (if not a spike).

It shook out loose hands again this morning and has held since. I get the impression someone's under it, ready to push it higher.

Hence, 'No Drama Obama'.

All true.
1. We could simply put _SU and let anyone insert their own or other state.
2. We don't assume. We heard the answers. Hot? Maybe. Tan? Definitely. Dumb? I wish there was more room for negotiations.
3. I'm Mr. Fishbelly White guy to most of my friends, from November to about May.
4. We invented those fantasies in the 70's. The bar has been set. It's taken us 30 years to come down.
5. Dryships has got to be sucking wind today....
6. I'm pretty sure the Editor of the Harvard Review has attended a kegger or two and I say we do a hair test to see if he inhaled.

America’s triple A rating is at risk
"By David Walker

Published: May 12 2009 20:06 | Last updated: May 12 2009 20:06

Long before the current financial crisis, nearly two years ago, a little-noticed cloud darkened the horizon for the US government. It was ignored. But now that shadow, in the form of a warning from a top credit rating agency that the nation risked losing its triple A rating if it did not start putting its finances in order, is coming back to haunt us.

That warning from Moody’s focused on the exploding healthcare and Social Security costs that threaten to engulf the federal government in debt over coming decades. The facts show we’re in even worse shape now, and there are signs that confidence in America’s ability to control its finances is eroding. "

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5534bd04-3f27-11de-ae4f-...

too funny.glad I had just finished my coffee.only a few drops from my stache hit the monitor.

In the spirit of serious financial discussion,Nobody seems to be mentioning FAZ any more.I've been making a few bucks on it since it came in my play range of $4-$7.I'm mostly cash now.Waiting for the BIG correction.My stocks on hand:FAZ,GDX,CEF,GTU,MNEAF,NXG AND UXG.
Happy trading or as they say in AZ,happy trails.

CE

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/05/not-so-fun-fact...

I recall a while back I heard a wise crack about school grading/pass/fail scheme. It's too damaging to kids self esteem to have them 'fail', so 'failure' would be replaced with 'deferred success'.

Banks (and now states) aren't too big to fail, they are just experiencing 'deferred success' :)

Poor Mr. Liddy. I'm sure glad the American people can rest assured that Timmy did his job with the stress tests and our mega banks are flush with taxpayer debt and can withstand any down turn.

Just keep shoveling it to them Timmy, the Social Security and Medicare citizens can go without as long as the banksters are capitaled up with bonus money. No bitterness here.

not sure why but im not impressed,
i was of the mindset that a move above $920 would be a surge, taking the shares with them,

we got a morning jump today but they have fallen back towards yesterday's close, granted its better than whats happening in the broad market but i still maintain the gold miners will not move counter-market during a sell off unless gold really powers higher.

If I could only have two pieces of the puzzle to watch:

1) Pure price action
2) Breadth intraday (currently halitosis)

I saw GG and KGC under distribution this morning after their brisk run up, but alas, I only sold off half. My other half isn't doing so well right now. :)

The historic relationship between gold and the dollar is not in effect.

1. We will cut taxes
2. Cut deficits
3. Increase spending
4. Lower interest rate for mortgage
5. Interest rate raising is good, shows economy is doing good—FED
6. Excited about this recovery. Banks used our Tarp money, created a short squeeze rally, and issued equity at high prices-game is working
7. we are having inflationary depression, no wage pressure

notice Bills comments this morning about gold noted the bullish developments but with some caveats about the rally being short-lived and/or not being fully confirmed.

we had most miners advance on weak volume accept for yesterday's jump, and as noted with gold tracking sideways against a weak broadmarket the miners have given up all gains and sunk even lower. no reveral looks in order at this point,

the USD has also bounced dramatically imho from the lows overnight.

so the miners again failed to confirm a real breakout was taking place, any advance was steadily eaten away at once the price action was digested by the market.

look at the volume and price action on NEM and ABX, the 2 gorrilla's in gold mining... not impressive at all. until these guys get moving w/ volume nothing is moving up.

Hi guys,
Can any TA experts help me: in this attachment (5-min IYR chart for today), why does this accumulation period continue with a downward slope? Does accumulation not cause a rise in price? Is there some other technical indicator that can warn me if at end of accumulation the price is going up or down ? Apologies for naivete - I'm learning TA.

http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/Fulls...

IYR failed to prove the support benchmark of $33.77 on 5/11.

I won't be posting much more on this discussion page, the browser hang has gotten way too time consuming...

a sell limit order was triggered this morning at $47.95 for 50 shares I purchased at $42.95. This is another small absolute gain, but it happens for a third day in a row! :)

I suppose the way to trade ultra-ETFs "automatically" is to use very small position sizes (since these ETFs can really MOVE) and then aggregate the profits from all small sales and treat it as a "trade" with a decent absolute gain. Trying to game these ETFs in one shot is very risky, because if you miss, you are out. But by "spreading out" the purchases and the sales, one can significantly increase the probability of making SOME money over time. My next sell limit order is at $55.40 for 50 shares I purchased at $48.40.

Out of SLW this afternoon at $9.16 for a tidy 2.8% gain in just five trading days.

Fast moving averages crossed the slower ones (50/200) and now are below them. That indicates continued selling from yesterday where the rally failed at the 200 period average.
There isn't any accumulation today. The faster MA's flipped shortly after the open and indicate selling the rest of the day. Another clue is no green spikes in volume.

The big clue was a 90.29 RSI yesterday falling to about 15 before the close.

As we have all experienced before, selling doesn't spare the PM's and miners.
Of note is something like GSS. Big move up yesterday, moved around this AM then sold with everything else. I took my $ off at 1.94 and was lucky to see it coming. GLD is still higher than it opened though...

This is when I used to give a hunk back. Now I book em'.
I think they try to suck us back in after 3.

CP, I have been experiencing this too. I have been using Chrome and it does not hang like Firefox.

If you have Firefox and use broadband, here are instructions for pages to load faster. I suppose every time FF comes out with a new update you may have to do this but it works for me.

The Instructions:

For Firefox users that have Broadband..

Here's something for broadband people that will really speed Firefox up:

1.Type "about:config" into the address bar and hit return. Scroll down and look for the following entries:

network.http.pipelining network.http.proxy.pipelining

network.http.pipelining.maxrequests
Normally the browser will make one request to a web page at a time. When you enable pipelining it will make several at once, which really speeds up page loading.

2. Alter the entries as follows:

Set "network.http.pipelining" to "true"

Set "network.http.proxy.pipelining" to "true"

Set "network.http.pipelining.maxrequests" to some number like 30. This means it will make 30 requests at once.

3. Lastly right-click anywhere and select New-> Integer. Name it "nglayout.initialpaint.delay" and set its value to "0". This value is the amount of time the browser waits before it acts on information it recieves.

If you're using a broadband connection you'll load pages MUCH faster now!

I am so buying and holding Marvel at some point in the near future. If their own studio can produce films like that with their own collection of intellectual property characters these guys definitely have a future.

I recall TMF being a big fan of Marvel from way back. I remember them being wrapped about future profits from the studio being discounted heavily in their present stock price.

Will have to look into it.

Anyone seen Hulk? Not a big fan of the green man - another Marvel property. Is it worth a gander?

The little known gold bullion equity similar to CEF, which came to our attention with an equity issue (its press site says non-dilutive, how is this so?) is just about to leave accumulation. If the POG holds, this should make a few percentage point over the next few days.

http://tinyurl.com/p29p6d

The effect of its share offering was to reduce its premium over NAV in comparison to its CEF cousin, who both enjoy a significant premium over GLD. It should hopefully reestablish this equilibrium in the coming days.

This offering is expected to close on 14 May 09 at 36.30. Price suppression is expected to lift sometime after this date if bullion price holds.

"What can I say? The trading half of the portfolio is up close to 100%, and I'm back to April 2008 levels overall."

Nice! Keep it up! :)

As I understand it,the offering was closed yesterday,

TORONTO, ONTARIO -- (Marketwire) -- 05/12/09 -- Central GoldTrust (TSX: GTU.UN)(TSX: GTU.U)(NYSE Amex: GTU) of Ancaster, Ontario is pleased to announce that it has completed the sale of 5,515,000 Units of Central GoldTrust at a price of U.S.$36.30 per Unit to CIBC (the "Underwriter"), raising total gross proceeds of U.S.$200,194,500 The Units offered were primarily sold to investors in Canada and in the United States under the Multijurisdictional Disclosure System.

Vinod- That's right. Every trade on HNU.to/HND.to comes with a $58 commission.

2nd
That is one of the reasons I stay away for TO. Traded equity.
Looking at UNG and USO.
Look like I missed judge them?
Now, tonight I have to find something that will work untill option expiration Friday

Yes it will be interesting to see what happens as it could be judged to be oversold at the moment.

FYI--Your US treasury has recently awarded a local company; Aurora Loan Services LLC (a subsidiary of bankrupt Lehman) a $798 million contract to help refinance home mortgages. The funds come from the Fed's foreclosure mitigation program.

It generated one third of the $480 billion in loans that Lehman securitized.Why is this administration rewarding the firms that made the mistakes in the beginning of this mess? I have written to Senator Bennet and congresswoman Degette of Colorado asking for an explanation. http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_12303230.

ALOHA!!

Well, this is slowly creeping towards reality ... In my mind this Moody's warning is like warning the MAFIA to quit breaking the law!

Here it is in FT in all its glory for all the foreigners to see. I do not have a link to the entire article, since I am not a subscriber. I find it interesting that the author of the article is David Walker. Is this the same David Walker who resigned from the GAO as US Comptroller General because of the whole SS Trust Fund debacle?

READ ON:
America’s triple A rating is at risk
By David Walker

Published: May 12 2009 20:06

Long before the current financial crisis, nearly two years ago, a little-noticed cloud darkened the horizon for the US government. It was ignored. But now that shadow, in the form of a warning from a top credit rating agency that the nation risked losing its triple A rating if it did not start putting its finances in order, is coming back to haunt us.

That warning from Moody’s focused on the exploding healthcare and Social Security costs that threaten to engulf the federal government in debt over coming decades. The facts show we’re in even worse shape now, and there are signs that confidence in America’s ability to control its finances is eroding.END

So we have Moody's concerned about four US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT line items that as of May 12th equal $839.4BIL USD. Which four are those? Health Services, Social Security, Medicare and Medicade.

I see four other line items on the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT that add up to over $1.016TRIL USD that Moody's does not even mention. Which four? Defense, Federal Salaries, TARP and Unclassified. Add those eight lines items together and its $1.86TRIL USD and if you add in the OTHER line item you can put another $1TRIL up on the board! WAY MORE THAN TAX REVENUES!

So what if the USA loses its AA rating you ask? A downgrade on US Sovereign credit is an automatic downgrade on all US corporate credit.

One other mention ... I do not think Moody's has the US credit rating at AAA. I read they had it pegged at AAa and S&P had the AAA ... Hummmm???

AAA or AAa ... it works until it doesn't!

By: Ann Saphir May 13, 2009
(Crain’s) — CME Group Inc. shares rose 6% Wednesday on investor expectations that new federal regulations could push trading of over-the-counter derivatives its way.

Shares surged $15.62 and closed at $274.10, as news of the potential regulatory changes leaked from Washington.

The broader markets, including the Dow Jones industrial average, are all down roughly 2% in late Wednesday trading.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on Wednesday will unveil Obama administration plans to regulate the vast market for over-the-counter derivatives, according to a media advisory that provided no other details. Analysts have said any such change would benefit CME.

“The OTC market is gigantic,” said Michael Wong, an analyst for Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. If the feds change the rules in any way that would push trading onto exchanges, “it would be a revenue boost and a multiple profitability boost.”

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Shapiro and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chairman Michael Dunn will also be on hand at the Treasury’s Wednesday briefing.

Shares of IntercontinentalExchange Inc., CME’s biggest rival, also rose Wednesday, gaining 9 cents to close at $96.59.

I had wanted to start accumulating GROW for a very long time, but I missed the March low in it (well, I used my money elsewhere at that time). Now I figured that the pullback from $6 to $5 is good enough to start scaling into GROW via selling puts. I just saw that the limit order I placed to sell 10 contracts of June $5 puts at $0.7 was executed (I placed it when bid was $0.6 and ask was $0.75, and then switched to doing other things).

I was waiting for a couple of earnings announcements since the October 2008 crash to let the stock stabilize (i.e., to wait until people will finish pulling money from their funds and the playing field will become "leveled" once again, with future GROW performance depending on performance of commodity and emerging market stocks, which form the core of the GROW funds). Now I think GROW is in the same position as in 2002, when their assets under management can grow not only from stocks rising but also from investors adding new money into their funds.

I have to wait and assume he is innocent until proven guilty. But if guilty (my guess is he is grossly guilty), I hope this is only the beginning of the perp walks.

Since this is a civil case, and if proven guilty, he should be stripped of all his assets and never be allowed to ever EVER work a white collar job. And be mandated to work for minimum wage, and spend his weekends doing community service for Habitat for Humanity, for the rest of his life. I think that sounds about fair as a guilty punishment.

Sometime I feel this country needs to implement some communist justice. There is a reason why people don't steal in China. the penalty for getting caught is far worse than the benefits of the crime.

ALOHA !!

Thanks yvrapx ...

David Walker loses me on this: "The US, despite the downturn, has the resources, expertise and resilience to restore its economy and meet its obligations. Moreover, many of the trillions of dollars recently funnelled into the financial system will hopefully rescue it and stimulate our economy."END

Okay ... well then what must David Walker think of the $3.6TRIl FY 2010 Budget?

Then I read the link to TAX REFORMS being proposed by the OBAMA regime that LES put up. WOW ... I'm glad I got out of retirement funds! By time you guys retire in 20 years the long term capital gains rates will be 60% at this rate. I'd rather pay the gains now while they are still under 30%! The basic theme of the OBAMA TAX REFORMS are to close loopholes and cut deductions and increase taxes in every possible way on those who are married making over $250,000USD per year and those who are single making $200,000USD per year. And for what reason? Will this pay off the US DEBT? Or will this just be sunk into a huge bottomless black hole to pay for PROMISES that will never come true?

Once heavy duty inflation comes back(and it will)$200,000USD will be like $50,000USD was ten years ago! So its like the DEBT CEILING!

In 1940 the total gross US DEBT was $50.7BIL USD ... It is now over $11.2TRIL USD. According to the Bush FY 2009 Budget estimates the Bush regime predicted that the US DEBT would be at its current levels by 2011. The 2011 estimate in the FY 2009 Budget was $11.432TRIL by 2011. Okay ... whats new? They totally missed it!

After WW2 the total US DEBT went into the $200BIL USD range and stayed there until 1962. Then in 1971 it crossed into the $400BIL range. By time the 1970s were over it was into the $800BIL USD range and by time the 1980s were over it was in the $2TRIL USD range. In 1982 the USA crossed into the $1TRIL range for the first time, but by 1986 we crossed into the $2TRIL USD range, just four years later. By the end of the 1990s we were in the $5TRIL range and by the end of the 2000s we were in the $10TRIL range.

It took 3 years to double our DEBT from 1940 to 1943(WW2) and it took 20 years to double it again by 1962. It took 14 years to double the debt again by 1976(Vietnam). It took 6 years to double the debt by 1983(Cold War). It took only five years to double again by 1988. By 1999 the debt had doubled again in 8 years. It has doubled again by 2008. As you can see things really got bad for the US DEBT after Nixon dumped the gold standard completely in 1971. The huge increases in DEBT and the DEFAULT in 1971 was due to WAR.

All that aside now we have UNFUNDED LIABILITIES that exceed $100TRIL USD ...

BIG GOVERNMENT MAKES BIG PROMISES!

That's what you call EMPIRE ...

"I am beginning to feel emboldened to help start a July 5, 2010 work stoppage for the entire country."

Ask the Air Traffic Controllers...They tried a similar work stopage in 81.
Regan fired the controllers replaced them with the National Guard and banned them from any federal employment in the future.

People can be controlled!

It would be nice if someone would be proactive in investigating Senator Dodd and others benefiting as "Friends of Angelo"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360116724221681...

Jock - historic gold data here:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html

http://www.sharelynx.com/

http://www.reserveasset.gold.org/background/

http://www.galmarley.com/framesets/fs_header_page_...

NYU-

(a) "Any president who really is for the people, and thus against hb&b, would not have a long tenure. what obama has taught me is that to put hope into 1 man to fight the slave masters (hb&b) was stupid on my part."

The 'new person syndrome.' I can't tell you how many times I've watched a new guy enroll in school/start work (especially one who's 'different' in some way), and immediately run into a wave of complaints/judgments. Over time, as they begin to make their mark/make friends, all of these complaints die away. Most of them eventually win people over. In a few cases, they become leaders and change social cultures.

(b) "And secondly, American people are to blame. When a group of people steals our money and freedom in broad daylight, yet the people of this country are too lazy/passive and more afraid of losing their stupidly insignificant 9-5 job, more than they are of losing their freedoms, there is no one left to blame but ourselves."

Not the Americans I know. My neighbors and friends work hard at our 9-5 jobs, which are about as insignificant to us as the ability to raise our families and contribute positively to our societies/communities via these jobs.

We didn't (re-)elect the status quo. We elected someone who seems capable of listening to our concerns and addressing them.

Even the President needs to act diplomatically and in measured steps. We don't know what he's up against, or the kinds of compromises he's already had to make. Nothing gets done without compromise.

I'm not ready to judge him at this point.

Down 22% on 200% volume...Can't find any news. Any ideas?
No position

By Elliot Blair Smith

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said nine U.S. banks would have to accept $125 billion in government investments or be forced to by regulators, according to a memo prepared for a meeting with the lenders’ chief executive officers in October.

“If a capital infusion is not appealing, you should be aware that your regulator will require it in any circumstance,” the one-page list of talking points said. “We don’t believe it is tenable to opt out because doing so would leave you vulnerable and exposed.”

Paulson’s plan to invest directly in the banks was a shift for the Bush administration, which had proposed buying troubled assets with $700 billion Congress approved 10 days earlier. The memo was among Treasury Department documents providing details about the Oct. 13 meeting.

“Most Americans are going to be uncomfortable with the government forcing the banks into this arrangement,” said Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, a nonprofit research group in Washington that obtained the documents under a Freedom of Information Act request. “This is, in many ways, thuggery.”

Andrew Williams, a spokesman for the Treasury, didn’t return calls seeking comment.

Banks worldwide have taken almost $1.5 trillion in writedowns and losses during the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression.

In his memo, Paulson said the government would buy preferred stock in the banks.

“Your nine firms represent a significant part of our financial system. Therefore, in our view, you must be central to any solution,” the memo said.

In releasing the documents, Judicial Watch said Treasury initially said it had no records about the meeting. It didn’t release a transcript of discussions between government officials and bankers.

The CEOs who attended included Kenneth Lewis of Bank of America Corp., Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co., John Thain of Merrill Lynch & Co., now part of Bank of America;Robert Kelly of Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Ronald Logue of State Street Corp., John Mack of Morgan Stanley and Richard Kovacevich of Wells Fargo & Co.

Accompanying Paulson were Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner, who succeeded Paulson as Treasury secretary.

The Monday meeting came after Paulson huddled with Geithner, Bair and Treasury aides Sunday afternoon and then placed calls that evening to each CEO except Blankfein, according to the secretary’s daily activity log.