[6:56am ET] The drama being played out in the world today is not, as many people think, the end of the American Empire. Rather, as I see it, it is the life-or-death struggle of the titans of the financial services industry, the old guard players who control Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) as well as the politicians of the so-called free world, to maintain their power over capital markets as well as their own positions at the top of the world’s most important decision-making hierarchy. Should these people lose, there will be others move in to take control and America will remain a powerhouse.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Empire
http://tinyurl.com/qbcr8k
The end, I feel, is near for the existing powers at HB&B. I sensed it yesterday as I watched a stream of the talking heads who serve HB&B tell the mass audience, rather desperately I thought, that the new Bull market has now begun. Had they made the same statements on Friday, they would have been laughed at. Tout TV would have been turned off by the people, finally.
So what happened in the meantime? India, with a GDP of $1.237 trillion (2008 est.), elected a majority government. Had this been France ($2.978 t), Italy ($2.399 t) or Spain ($1.683 t), or Russia ($1.757 t), Canada ($1.564 t), Brazil ($1.665 t) or Mexico ($1.143 t), would the world have paid much attention?
The problem is that HB&B controls the Western media; they employ fiction for fact; and, after years of being dummied down, the public have succumbed to their nonsense. Worse, HB&B have one objective in mind, and that is to stay in control, regardless of the tactics they employ. If you understand the term moral hazard, then you know the situation has become one of outright fraud of the highest order.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_hazard
The capital that is being used today to propel the equity market higher is coming not from the personal accounts of those who control HB&B, but from the Assets Under Management (AUM) of Mom and Pop. No, those titans of which I speak removed their capital from the market during the long-term cycle top after their leader Henry Paulson was parachuted into the White House in June of 2006, whereupon strategies like Humungous dividends and share-buybacks were employed.
The fact that your pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds made the purchases of stock at the cycle top that the bankers and their families and friends were selling is why their wealth has grown and yours has plummeted. Make no mistake about it. Make no mistake about it. Those people knew the gig was over before the credit squeeze commenced at the end of 2Q2007, a year after Paulson and friends took over the White House. The de-leveraging process has been managed from the get-go. It always is.
Politicians today are in a jam. They are trying to serve two masters – those who elected them and those who opened the doors for their candidacy and then paid for their election campaigns. When it comes to the paths taken in a democracy, let’s just say money talks. HB&B prints the money, and the people who control HB&B are powerful indeed.
But as powerful as they are, they head financial organizations that are still weighed down by worthless assets that require write-downs, which in turn requires more capital injections. The public has reacted angrily to the Paulson-Bernanke programs to bail-out the banks. They expected more banks to fail and they wanted the scoundrels who caused the systemic failure of the international financial system and the crash of equity markets to be arrested and prosecuted for serious crimes. Given the public got short-changed by President Obama, they stand united in refusing to have more taxpayer money be turned over to the bankers.
So, now the matter has come down to HB&B trying to save itself by pumping up equity markets to facilitate share offerings to acquire the needed capital base. The Obama Administration is doing all it can to help. HB&B’s man, Timmy Terrific, has been brought into the White House to clean up the mess left by Paulson. Obama’s speeches are filling the public with hope.
Meanwhile independent traders are not buying it at all. Trading volumes have collapsed. Only the algo-driven computers of HB&B are working away at a process that if you and I were doing it would be called wash trading. Like Martha Stewart, we’d be sent off to jail. But not HB&B; they’ve been given six months or more (probably much more) to get their books in order.
http://www.forbes.com/2007/03/20/ishares-proshares-etfs-pf-etf-in_bc_032...
http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/wash+trade
Giving the appearance through higher prices that the markets are getting stronger, helped by self-serving so-called HB&B independent research department ratings upgrades, particularly among the pre-selected banks who are needed in their peer group struggle to survive, and by the succession of incentivized talking heads claiming a new Bull market has begun, the stage has been set for more investment by pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds, which will only be a compounded mistake.
The jury is still out as to whether or not the HB&B titans remain in power. Should they con the public into buying the equity market higher, they stand a chance of survival. However, if the major market indexes of the equity market were to stumble and tumble, there will be an outrage from the public that elected politicians will have to respond to.
There is a lot of drama going on today in the market. To the extent it gets real, and does not stay caught up in fiction, I believe share prices are headed south. I believe the cycle bottom process will continue into 4Q2009.
In the immediate future, I believe there will be a final rally in gold and silver, probably starting this week, reaching quickly into the $980-1000 level, silver possibly to $17, and oil to $65, based on a falling $USD, which I think will fall to just under 80 over the next several weeks or months. I do not believe the S&P 500 will rally past 950 or the DJIA past 9100 in this short-term cycle. This final action over the next couple weeks is probably a good time to sell into strength as prices come to you.
I would definitely like to see the changes promised by President Obama, with a whole new system of rules and regulations for financial services and capital markets, but I’m not counting on it. Nor do I care about the drama being played out within HB&B because that’s all politics. I am however focused on market prices and I have an open mind. If the markets move higher here, which is indicated by the action early this morning, I am well positioned with holdings in precious metals producers and a bit of energy (and mostly cash), waiting to lock in profits. I will also be waiting for technical break-downs in other sectors to switch to a short position with put option strategies.
Have a great day.
Comments
iras
I am trying to learn from my mistakes from last year when I was excessively long the market and took a beating. I lost confidence in myself and in the markets and was essentially in cash since october.
I am looking to sell call options on rimm anticipating a pullback and also trying to buy in before the gamma declines.
However, I also have 2 ira's that I am managing and apparently I can not trade options or short stock in these 2 funds. Is there a way around this? (i.e. how can you go "short" in an ira when you anticipate a decline in prices)
thanks
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Upgrade:
IMO - to Sector Perform @ CIBC
Coverage Resumed:
ERJ - Underperform @ Credit Suisse
Re: iras
look into the short etf's. There are more and more of them. You won't be able to short individual stocks, but it will give you the ability to gain some from downside moves. However, be careful, these are generally designed as short term instruments that have inherent performance decay in their design. Much has been said about them in this blog
Re: iras
TD Ameritrade allows you to buy puts on stocks (I do this currently in a Roth IRA). Think or Swim allows you to sell or buy spreads (like you desire) if a definite risk exists (not naked options) - although margin may be higher.
Update
I didn't make any trades yesterday, because I didn't see any trades setting up. "Good" days in the market can be bad days for day trders. Gap open, slow consolidation, and then a little pop at the end.
Had a dream about DRYS long this morning, and you KNOW those dreams gotta be respected.
Brilliant
Just thought that the Daily Commentary and Market Report today are superb. Always terrific, but superb today. Bravo Zulu.
Re: iras
that was the next thing that I was going to look into.
2 things i am not clear on about etf's:
1 I have heard that their management fees are about half of mutual funds, but am ignorant about how these fees are charged (are they up front, or pro-rated, etc.)
2 Can you give me a better understanding of the performance decay that is designed into them?
PDA, a Cara 100
PDA and SDA announce merger.
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68989656666790
I must say
Since I am a swing trader now standing aside (waiting for the blow-off), I can afford to read news and opinions all I want. And I must say that Bill's daily comments are right up there with the most cogent and penetrating that I have found - he provides me with perspectives that I would otherwise know nothing about. This is a long way round of saying "thank you." So, thank you Bill.
Re: Brilliant
RE:>Just thought that the Daily Commentary and Market Report today are superb. Always terrific, but superb today. Bravo Zulu.
agreed. Thought it was a good update of where we are so I sent it to all the family.
A no BS fact sheet that they should read instead of listening to their news anchor.
Re: iras
newbee, hunt down Si02's commentary. He doesn't make many, and they're all pertinent to your question.
Re: iras
(a) I'm not aware of any management fees. Commissions to buy and sell are identical to those your broker charges for buying and selling any individual stock.
(b) Performance decay? The standard short ETFs should be OK. I would stay away from the 2x/3x, except for intraday trading. There are, by now, a number of good articles on the decay inherent in the 2x/3x funds, which is just a function of the (simple) math involved (ie, there is no scam- but you need to understand how the daily resets/calculations work against you). Just Google "ultra ETF decay."
UNG- Adding @ 15.70
...
Re: Brilliant
Bill, I as well, want to piggy back on the Thank You this morning... I have shared your above to family and friends too.. I never knew what was "really" going on until my Dad showed me your web site... I have learned so very much... Thank You for being such a wonderful, caring, sharing, Man...
Allison
Excellent commentary
I'm with others in agreeing that today's commentary is exceptional. For myself, count me among those former traders who are now on the sidelines. I look at the markets still, but it is absolutely impossible to find any trend or reason to the daily swings. One day the market is up 1%, the next day down 1%. And so on. Made all the worse by an Obama administration conducting business as usual with respect to the financial markets.
WHERE IS THE REFORM?
Crickets chirping.
Give another
potential 20% gainer today
EJ
Tough day
I was long yamana and SLW primarily, and they did alright.
credit cards
this will be good motivation to switch to debit cards or good ole checks
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/business/19credi...
Re: credit cards
Morons. Talking about killing the goose that lays the golden egg.
yay! Let's squash consumption completely in this deteriorating economy.
"People who routinely pay off their credit card balances have been enjoying the equivalent of a free ride, he said, because many have not had to pay an annual fee even as they collect points for air travel and other perks."
hmmm, if you are like me you are apparently scum in the eyes of issuers of credit.
banks
Hmmm. Of the big bankrupt banks, BAC and C seem to be raising (raiding?) the most of the people's $ today. That's the horses in the race today it looks like. Looks like GS is trailing them. Who trusts these crooks with their $?
Re: credit cards
"hmmm, if you are like me you are apparently scum in the eyes of issuers of credit."
You're not one of them. They view you as the deep pockets that will recapitalize their bankrupt bank. Just like government views you as a tax/use tax/license fee/sales tax/hotel tax/parking fee/building permit/speeding ticket payer.
Re: credit cards
reminds me more n more about the movie "Matrix". Gotta unplug ourselves from the system (kind of like what Kaimu is doing)....
Re: credit cards
Like he says, pay off debt. Don't use CC's and all is well.
These guys are shooting themselves in the foot. I say hand them a few rounds and stand back!
VIX
VIX in the 20's.
Re: credit cards
RE:> Just like government views you as a tax/use tax/license fee/sales tax/hotel tax/parking fee/building permit/speeding ticket payer.
I'm a little behind on our taxes Craig. Still yet to cough up 2007. No strong-arming yet. I'll take the state's kindness to the limits ;)
2010 Conference
Can anyone tell me where I can find a firm date for the 2010 event, plus registration information? Gracias.
Re: credit cards
Les, you thieving scumbag! (Me, too, and get a nice $200-$300 check back each month on my business card). Perhaps they should work with the credit agencies and remove the ridiculous hit your FICO score takes for canceling old cards. I get 5 bills every month for cards I haven't used in 15 years.
Re: Brilliant
I 2nd Les - that was great reading today, Bill. Thanks again.
TNA
Can't fight the trend bought 1k TNA@ 25.695
SRS/FAZ
That was one nasty u-turn.
been long slw a little while
been long slw a little while
TNA
out@26.27
Re: credit cards
Mark, I assume that's the usual 2-5% back on purchases.
I wonder if anyone has done the math on what would happen if none of used the damned cards and the 5% CC processing fee went away and prices dropped to compete for real cash business and the banks could go to H-E- double hockey sticks?
I'll bet we could see 10-20% drop in prices if we didn't use fake borrowed paper.
Re: Brilliant
It is real nice to know a true professional that is honest and willing to share. I think Bill hit the nail on the head today. THANK YOU BILL!
There's gold fever in the air
Something strange going on today with the miners.
They jump out of the gate like they did before being dragged back to earth. and they're off again now.
A KGC Jan $10 put premium I sold is decaying as we speak.
I think the punters, be they individuals or HB&B, smell gold, like Bill reckons.
On another note, I noticed that UXG was at 2.99 when the POG last hit 1000. That's a 50% increase from where it is today, if it repeats itself. Gonna load up during the week when gold gets its daily smackdown. That sort of risk/rewards scenario is too interesting to pass up.
Re: credit cards
Craig, Yep, I buy a lot of products for clients on the CC. Free 30 day float, cash back, product/fraud protection etc. And many of the transactions are via the internet or phone. But your right, it obviously gets paid for by the people who carry balances. Yikes, I sound like a spokesman for industry. But your right, I'd say 10% would be about right.
Re: credit cards
4-5% is paid by everyone as businesses pass those processing fees on to all buyers, users pf CC's or not. THEN the CC co's stick it to the deadbeats through higher fees, rates.
It's a good deal in comparison for you and me!
Vodafoen a buy here?
I recall Bill talking about Vodafone (VOD) a while back, though I cannot find old posting about it. Wasn't it in teh CARA 100 earlier?
They just released their earnings and are down a tad. Is this a buying opportunity? Their forward PE is about 8-9 and earnings more trustworthy than many others. Growth should be OK going forward and they even have a nice almost 7% yield.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VOD
Re: credit cards
Craig,
"4-5% is paid by everyone as businesses pass those processing fees on to all buyers, users of CC's or not."
Yep,just like we all pay for theft.
Re: credit cards
I hate that. LOL!
Re: credit cards
"THEN the CC co's stick it to the deadbeats through higher fees, rates."
The credit card issuers consider the people who pay off the balance monthly to be the "deadbeats". If they can get some of these people to cancel their cards or lower their limits, they can lower their potential loss reserves for unsecured debt.
In contrast, the banks consider the worst 3% of card holders to be their "high value customers". This is a highly lucrative group who get hit repeatedly with high rates, late fees, double cycle billing, etc.
Eventually many in this group default, but not before numerous fees have been extracted. And the amount defaulted is "written off" against profits from high rates on those who don't default.
The 2005 "Debtor Enslavement Act" (or whatever it's called), making it much harder for individuals to declare bankruptcy, was lobbied for by the banks. That way they could continue to lend to poor credit risks with less chance of default through bankruptcy.
TZA
in 11:12@27.0875
Re: credit cards
Don't the credit card company's charge businesses a % for processing the cards too?
Re: Vodafoen a buy here?
Vodafoen is not in the accumulation zone of the RSI data so I would not buy it here.
Regards
Chicken
did you pick up any SPNG on the sell off? I bought a little more at .04...was waiting for a pullback.
Re: Vodafoen a buy here?
Hi msquare and bobbor,
Vodafone is on the Bob Brinker list along with microsoft and suncor. I am not promoting this guy, I am only offering another perspective for those who might believe the worst is behind us. VOD is not in accumulation phase, but down .97 for the day. It is also a dividend stock which is an added bonus to me.
thank you Bill Cara for giving the broader picture and putting my head back on straight.
Mark, I hope you don't mind that I copied you into UNG - small position. I did well last time but watching it like a hawk. Still Gun Shy on everything.
:)
vb
Re: credit cards
CC companies are like the Mob. Everyone pays the VIG whether you know it or not. In the trade, those that pay off each month are known as deadbeats.
Every time I receive an unsolicited offer, I kindly reply by writting 'no thanks' and sending it back in their postage paid envelope. I know it's childess but it only takes 5 seconds and costs them 44 cents.
Banker's caldron
Bill, Bankers have ears if not hearts. I am forwarding your spot on commentary to my bank reps in hopes that your clarity might bubble to the top of the caldron. What are the odds Mozillo and his ken will ever face the music for their gross misdeeds? Only if the current titans are ousted? Thank you for your laser insight.
Re: credit cards
CC Fee - They know I won't pay a fee for something I rarely use. The ATM card is covered by my monthly checking account fee, and they'd better not think about raising that. The checking fee is the primary reason I bought BAC stock for dividend compensation, but now they've stopped their dividend it's time to sell. Buying BAC before the dividend cut was a big mistake, glad I kept the position small.
GG benchmark today is $33.83, looks like it will prove support. Question is, how much longer will cash be the winning hand?
Re: banks
Stock of BAC and C may be junk, but why to fight tape.
Took at technical it is very strong?
Re: banks
Vinod,
Agris are also going crazy (POT, MOS)
GDX, GG
These two are about POG +$10 from breaking out. My best guess anyway.
From the looks of GG's daily chart, people are betting its gonna happen today.
FD: Just got some June GDX calls
Re: GDX, GG
if u check the chart of GOLD, it has cleared all previous highs. Most gold miners are on the verge of break-out, lets see if it happens this week
Re: SRS/FAZ
watching SRS...am long it and have sold SAK RD...have stops in place at 19 and 20 respectively. I am more positive now than yesterday, as I almost got triggered on the sold PUT.
I have also notice that SRS is now not taking the plunge with overal market strength such as the $DJI & $SPX. I am looking for SRS to go higher...how high?
Federal Stimulus
Aside from lower mortgage rates, not much has rolled out yet has it? Anyone got a link to an implementation time line?
healthcare
only unrepresented people in this whole game is tax paying middle class... Everybody else got lobbyists to protect them & get, maybe some TARP funds :)
======================
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20090519/pl_bloo...
A spokesman for the Washington, D.C.-based American Beverage Association said it’s unlikely there would be enough public support for an additional tax on soft drinks. Kevin Keane, a spokesman for the association, said the public would “see no logic in singling out one product to pay for health care when nearly all foods and beverages have calories. They just see it as a money grab.”
The association represents Coca-Cola Co., PepsiCo Inc. and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, the three largest U.S. soda makers.
Re: Brilliant
Refreshing and passed it along to family as well.
Re: banks
bought some BAC@11.85
My TZA is underwater, but I'm holding for awhile yet. At least I have a little cushion from the TNA trade this morning.
Re: Chicken
teamonfuego - No SPNG yet, for grins and giggles tried placing a stink bid and can't do it online through my broker. I think it requires one of those timed key cards or something...
FAZ in@4.872
...
UNG- scaling in @ 15.30
...
BAC
sold 1/2 at small loss @11.71
Re: GDX, GG
please pardon the ignorant question, but when you are talking about GG breaking out, I assume that you mean in terms of a previous high.
So if it breaks this target, I guess you are expecting a significant move up from that point??? (not really in the form of a question, so I guess it wouldn't fly on Jeopardy - my apologies to Alex Trabek)
Brilliant report by the Times of London on AIG--you must read t
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/ind...
Re: GDX, GG
what i meant is if you draw a trend line of previous highs, GOLD is already above it, rest of the miners are just testing that trendline.
SPNG
I didn't know that the blog tracked the number of posts so I am going to have to get busy if I want to catch chickenpookie. I sort of took 6 months off from looking at stocks after the beating I took last year, unfortunately, had I been aware of this website this time last year my financial condition would be vastly different. I also missed some good opportunities during this last few months (buying off the march lows, buying the banks, etc.) Oh well, something new to beat myself up over.
Anyway, I don't know who first brought up SPNG. Wish I had been looking at it 2 weeks ago (so much for wishes). Anyway, the company does look like its real and has potential. I am concerned about the overall market and how a severe downturn in the major averages might affect this stock (even if it continues to grow revenues and earnings - I am still smarting over the beating I took in Apple and RIMM last year and this has made me very gun shy).
I know its a penny stock, (wish I had bought at 1 cent) but its product line and marketing strategy look good.
Comments, anyone?
I guess I should have posted this line by line to boost my comment total ;)
Re: GDX, GG
Yes, if you look at the daily chart of GG, you will see it trading at 34.65 and if you draw a straight line to the left you will see the most recent previous high (late march & early april) at about 35 and change.
When people short a stock, they will typically put a "stop" (automatic buy order) at a little above a resistance level, which is (among other things) a recent previous high. So if I shorted GG, I might have a stop at 35.75, limiting my losses in case the trade goes against me.
So once the price moves into that area where the short sellers have their stops, they start to get triggered - automatic buy orders, which drive prices higher, which trigger more stops, which drives prices even higher. So breaking resistance can result in significant price movements.
Sometimes the price keeps moving up - and sometimes its a very short lived rally, and the price drops back down again.
Re: SPNG
RE:>I guess I should have posted this line by line to boost my comment total ;)
It's not what you've got but how you use it. :) call me a hypocrite with my tally.
Yes newbee SPNG has come to my attention as well. I'm waiting for the next down leg to get in on the act.
.007 to .050 in a month and a half gets my attention.
be not afraid. When the selling set in for the next down leg, SPNG will be cheaper.
Re: Brilliant report by the Times of London on AIG--you ...
excellent article and truly sad
What is amazing is the staggering amounts of money that the principles in all this have made and kept, while so many are now jobless and / or struggling to survive, and all of us are stuck with paying for this morass.
How could Paulsen tell us last year that the fundamentals of the economy were sound?
I guess the old adage is true: Steal a loaf of bread to feed your family and go to prison. Steal billions of dollars and start your own hedge fund.
Re: GDX, GG
thanks to you (and other's) for answering my questions.
I just got Bill's book yesterday. (took the free shipping deal from amazon and still received it via US mail in a couple of days - makes me wonder why people pay for the express shipping)
Re: credit cards
I was looking at GG's P&F...I own it. I was curious if you could tell me what the red number "5" at the beginning of the latest column of "x" means.
Thanks in advance for any insight you can provide...I am learning about these charts, so I may run across it, but any clues always help.
Re: credit cards
I believe the 5 stands for the month of may.
Re: Brilliant report by the Times of London on AIG--you ...
i read this in the wkend but forgot to forward.... What really bugs me is there are so many creative people in this world (scientists, engineers, doctors, inventors etc), who are really doing a lot of good to humanity by finding ways and means to improve our standard of living but these banker crooks have shattered the money flowing to those green field projects for the next 10 years or so. A few have brought it down on the masses.
TARP repayment plan
- Banks technically insolvent
- Share price/book values plummet
- Get huge loan guarantees from government
- Shares rise...(with public backing)
- Banks issue additional stock to 'improve' capital ratios (diluting old shareholders)
- Banks apply to repay TARP, so mis-managers can be out from compensation restrictions
...restart cycle here?
Re: SPNG
Newbee - I posted a note on this a few weeks ago with a reasonable valuation...I think this is reasonable:
Sales - They have announced at least $20 Million in the past 2 months and $10 Million in the first 2 weeks of May, so if we assume a conservative $10 Million per month x 12 months = $120 Million.
Earnings - Their net margins were 17% for the past 12 months; so assume 10% conservative. So .10 x $120 Million = $12 Million earnings
Shs outstanding - 722 Million
EPS: earnings divided by shs = 12 / 722 = .0166
Earnings multiple - 8 times
Valuation = $.0166 x 8 = $.133
This valuation is a minimum valuation using conservative sales, margins, and multiples. If you use higher sales of $15 Million per month due to increased exposure of the products through advertising on MLB games, CNBC, etc., and with the SpongeBob SquarePants product launch, as well as a net margin of 12% and a earnings multiple of 12 times you arrive at a valuation of $.36. Also, the company announced its intention to buy back more shares so the valuation could go even higher.
The point is it seems like the company is pretty undervalued...it could be worth 3.5 to 9 times its current price.
But do keep in mind that this is a tiny company so you shouldn't put more money in it than you're willing to lose 100% of.
Re: SRS/FAZ
I currently own some SRS via options. Sold Jun $23 Put and Bought twice amount of $20 Puts.
I have found that the options move less erratically than the underlying stock and the past two weeks as SRS moved between $19.55 & $25, I did made a few $s getting in and out of short & long PUTs.
hnu.to
Remind me not to be so complacent with sizing. Taking a stupidly big hit here.
Re: hnu.to
ditto ung. But RSI is heading south so rapidly that I'll average down when it stabilises.
Bill's made it clear what the near term value of hydrocarbons will be.
UNG
Man, that's some volume sale over there....a few million in the last half hour or so...
Edit: According to my Scottrade screen it's down on almost three X normal volume.
silver whipsaw
I just want to point out, the other day Bill mentioned that silver seemed to want to whipsaw some traders out before making its rise. Today our friend silver is +0.40, looking ready to break above the clogged area of this week where it has been resting.
Really I don't know how he does it. Maybe he has seen so many of these cycles, its old news by now. Oil, base metals, then gold. I need to chant this to myself whenever I feel myself about to be whipsawed out. Which I was, a little bit.
FD: long silver and SLW
Hank Paulson/Dick Cheney
Hank (snake lover) Paulson - The Lord givith and the Lord taketh away??
Mr. Cheney - We're still waiting for that Energy Task Force report??
Re: Hank Paulson/Dick Cheney
I dunno CP. You're heading down Ron Sen's path of obscurity there.
Re: credit cards
garryg,
That is probably it. Now if you know the letters, that would be good. I think maybe since it goes (ie. GG)from a red 9 to 1 in late 2008...early 2009 that the red a,b,c has to do with Elliot wave. I do not see other setups in GG like that, however?
Re: SPNG
Thanks, i think that I saw that over the weekend, but was trying to get caught up with recent posts and forgot where it was to refer back to it today. I guess its that old-timers disease kicking in again.
May 15th press release had them in 50 times more outlets than 1 year ago. I am also wondering about their international growth potential.
the stock exploded in the last week or so. I don't know if its an internet thing, but I am still hurting from SIRIUS in the $9 range. So, I am curious if this can hold above .04 after shooting up so quickly.
Re: UNG
Anyone see that jump from 15.10 right to 15.22? My limit order at 15.05 seems lonely down there.
Re: UNG
UNG...long at 15.21...had good experience with this price level recently...sell stop at 14.
volume:
present 23,700,000
yest 14,562,547
10 day 20,570,212
John Paulson going gold for...gold.
"Now that SEC filings for 1st quarter 2009 have come in, the following is a very quick look at some moves from the hottest hedge fund managers over the past 3 years, John Paulson and venerable George Soros.
Paulson continues to grow his gold stash as he views inflation rather than deflation the coming scourge. [Mar 17, 2009: John Paulson Joins David Einhorn as Gold Bug with Stake in AngloGold Ashanti (AU)]. Amazingly his fund now owns 8.7% of the entire SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) - wow. And if I read this correct a 15% stake in the Gold Miners ETF (GDX)."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/138226-john-paulso...
Hmmm this guy was all over the breakdown in real estate and banking. Now he's hogging a good percentage of the US' primary gold ETF. Bill and Paulson are given me courage to load up.
Amazingly, UXG lags all other juniors at the moment (wgw, ngd, rby) despite similar performance at the last breakout in gold prices. Can't see why. Some dilution in share offerings, but who isn't offering shares in the present environment and dilution has not proven to be a negative in the present environment. If anyone has the insider on UXG, I'd appreciate knowing, thanks.
Bill Cara is amazing!!
I don't know how he does it but to predict that gold and silver will have a substantial rally this week IS AMAZING!! I'm making tons of money probably just like everyone else! Good work Bill!!
Re: Hank Paulson/Dick Cheney
"You're heading down Ron Sen's path of obscurity there."
Obscurity is never my intent, my friend.
Re: UNG
Mark, it looks like as few got filled ~15.05
Re: UNG
Johnny, Yep it bounced around 15.10, put my order in... then see ya! Nice work with TNA this AM.
Re: John Paulson going gold for...gold.
With the dollar going down UUP -0.18 momentarily, oil and GDX are up right on queue.
Options
I might be early, but I am watching puts for the future.
Puts
QAA SC DOWN 19.10%
ZQN SN 29.9O%
AAO SH 26.19%
NQ SN 24.39%
CYQ SR 27.91%
THESE MAY BE OFF A LITTLE DUE TO TIMEING OF REPORTING.
INTC OR (NQ SN) HAS SLIGHTLY MORE VOLUME THAN YESTERDAY. IS THERE ANYWAY TO TELL IF THESE ARE BUYERS OR SELLERS OF THESE PUTS? ANYONE KNOW?
Re: Vodafoen a buy here?/Brinker '08
vb- Out of curiosity, wondering what Brinker was saying last September/October? Was his timing model bullish or bearish?
Re: Bill Cara is amazing!!
You should check out his 2005/06 posts on gold. I think he hit every twist and turn.
TZA- chips on @ 26.08
Small play right now. May stack a few more on later.
Re: TZA- chips on @ 26.08
TZA 26.05
for gold Bug
why SA is breaking out?
Re: Bill Cara is amazing!!
Well, thank you but anybody who has ever met me knows I am just like any of you. I am no Obama. All I try to do is explain capital markets so that you all have a chance to protect your wealth and grow it. There is no need to be taken advantage of by anybody.
In the WIR this week I wrote about silver:
"$SILVER was like palladium, platinum and copper this week; it was down – down just 3 cents/oz or -0.21% to 13.97, but down nonetheless. I was telling my traders on Friday morning that I had the closing number 14.50 in my head, but the $USD strength never let that happen. Let’s see what next week brings... I have said that Silver would lead the rally, and relative to gold that’s true... For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 13.01. The 200d MA is 12.06... $SILVER looks to me like its trying to whip-saw some traders, getting them out before the run."
The chart is showing a rapid run-up to close to 14.30.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_SI.N09.E
I am also saying that I will soon be looking to sell into strength. I have opined that $SILVER could possibly run to $17 here in a flash, but I'll be watching the miners (for potential weakness) and the forex markets (for potential strength in the $USD).
Yes, I am concerned that heavy selling in the broad market could take down most stocks in the near-term, so I'll be careful to try to optimize gains against the risk of hanging in too long.
I don't care how much money I make as long as I make it. That's the key.
HPQ
earning after closed
money flow at WSJ site shows negative
Re: TZA- chips on @ 26.08/ off 26.32
That's enough. Shooting lay-ups for now.
wow
The sell function on Mr Market still works...
sold short some FCX
The copper price is still below the recent double top, so I decided to sell short a little more FCX now, at $50.10. Also, I just covered at $0.10 the June $12 puts on ACI, which I sold a few weeks ago at $1.00. Even though the chance of these options being executed is extremely small, I would rather have the flexibility of selling these puts again at a much larger price if the market takes a plunge in the next few weeks (and the remaining absolute gain that I can extract from the current ACI puts is insignificant).
Re: TZA- chips on @ 26.08/ off 26.32
2nd
I raised my stop.
can't make any unless size is good?
Re: UNG- scaling in @ 15.30/ off @ 15.27
Flat for the day. Just two trades today.
Re: TZA- chips on @ 26.08/ off 26.32
2nd- Nice, I slipped in a little trade yesterday with SRS about this time of day, then got out only to watch it fall of a cliff.
Re: TZA- chips on @ 26.08/ off 26.32
Vinod- I'm just not in the mood for overnight luggage right now.
sold some UNG puts
sold June $16 puts on UNG for $1.45 each. If UNG goes below $15 in the next few days, I will sell June $15 puts on UNG, and so on.
A friend of mine pointed out yesterday that almost every time he would buy short term puts/calls he would lose money, and almost every time he would sell short term puts/calls he would make money. That's something to think about...
Re: TZA- chips on @ 26.08/ off 26.32
out 26.78
Re: Bill Cara is amazing!!
Watching the various indicators, right now the FRN is rolling over.
FAZ & TZA
Holding FAZ@4.86 and TZA@27.08 overnight. Nice selloff for the shorts at the close, who knows what tomorrow will be like. I'm about even on the day having made a little on a TNA trade this morning and took a small loss on BAC later. I feel it's a larger probablility we have a down day tomorrow, so didn't unload these prior to 4pm today.
FRN rolling over?
Hey CP what do you use for those indicators?
Re: iras
Try inverse ETF's, watch out for the double and triple short stuff...those are for say and swing trading, over time you will lose even if you are right on direction because of, I think, huge slippage due to options leverage, theta decay, bid ask spreads, and just overall having the management take your money.
a day of rest
Today felt like - a day of rest by HB&B, before "something exciting" happens tomorrow. I think maybe if the buck goes down again tomorrow, we could have a breakout for both gold and silver. While the miners did move nicely, they died at end of day, and the overall daily volume was at best average.
Re: credit cards
TN_blogger,
I went back and checked some material I had from OptionInvestor.com and the numbers and letters all refer to dates. This is the only way in a P&F chart that you can reference time. 1-9 jan-sep a-c oct-dec.
Re: credit cards
Thanks, that really does make lots of sense.
SanDisk ceo upbeat on 2009
http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUS...
Banks mysteriously lower after hours
BAC for sure
Does anyone think this may have to do with the fed release coming up?
Besides the obvious fleecing they are a shareholder in!
Re: Banks mysteriously lower after hours
Fast money is saying equity raise...no comment by BAC however.
Re: Vodafoen a buy here?/Brinker '08
Hi 2nd,
I wasn't following Bob Brinker last fall. I was exclusively with euro pacific and learning to day trade here.
I did go back to the archives here and looked at some prices during september and October and it was almost too much to handle. I felt post traumatic stress attack coming on. If you haven't done this, you should go back and look at the archives on this site - no wonder we all are gun shy !
vb
Re: TARP repayment plan
I follow the story up to "- Banks issue additional stock to 'improve' capital ratios (diluting old shareholders)"
The bond holders have been protected — but the stockholders were thrown under the bus. So who is stupid enough (adventurous enough?) to be buying stock in these false-front financial institutions?
Is someone actually buying or is this just another chapter in a total fairytale?
Is BAC buying JPM whose buying WFC?
Re: credit cards
"Credit card issuers and credit industry analysts say the new law will make credit cards more costly for all users and unaccessible for low-income families. Look for the return of routine annual fees, fewer rewards cards and the possibility that credit card bills will be payable immediately rather than after a month-long grace period."
I think this is bad news for the banks, since the use of credit cards by "good users" with cash on hand will drop, and only the "risky users" with no cash on hand will keep using them. Imagine now what the CC portfolios of the banks will be worth, when almost every person in that portfolio will be a high-risk person... And since we know that debt=money, there will be less money in the system, squeezing banks even more.
Re: Banks mysteriously lower after hours
"BofA Drops on Rumors of Stock Sale"
Details were sketchy, but CNBC, citing trading sources, said the offering would be for around 825 million shares priced at or about $10 each. A bank representative said the company had no comment on the report.
“I’m advocating 6 percent inflation"
May 19 (Bloomberg) -- What the U.S. economy may need is a dose of good old-fashioned inflation.
So say economists including Gregory Mankiw, former White House adviser, and Kenneth Rogoff, who was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. They argue that a looser rein on inflation would make it easier for debt-strapped consumers and governments to meet their obligations. It might also help the economy by encouraging Americans to spend now rather than later when prices go up.
“I’m advocating 6 percent inflation for at least a couple of years,” says Rogoff, 56, who’s now a professor at Harvard University. “It would ameliorate the debt bomb and help us work through the deleveraging process.”
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=au...
6% inflation and 0% fed funds rate......that sounds great!
BAC 825m shares at $10.
And gs upgrades them yesterday? Will anyone ever have the courage to fight back? They bleed and do #1 and 2 just like any man!
Volume?
Been reading lots of talk about a lack of volume behind the markets. Really? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong because my sources of historical data for volume is incomplete.
Consider S&P 500:
From what I can tell, every day since Jan. 9 2009 (including today), the daily volume has been higher than ANY day in the period 2003-July 2007 (when the bull started cracking). Sure, it's been steadily declining since the Mar low. Maybe we've been getting just a little too used to recent insane volumes and gut-wrenching volatilities to remember what "non-crisis" markets look like? How would we expect volume data to develop, going forward, if - just for the sake of argument - some sort of normalcy is returning to capital markets? Wouldn't there be a quieting of not only volatility but also volume?
Re: FRN rolling over?
davefairtex - UUP mostly, it's portable and easy to handle. The weekly trend reversal began yesterday, a 0.73% drop over a period of two days is pretty substantial. Of course the FED preempted FRN weakness, as usual, to ward off notions of higher gold prices. It worked pretty well for a day, didn't it? Wonder where gold would be if they hadn't done that? Kitco's currency charts help with broad comparisons as well.
Re: FRN rolling over?
Pook, can't seem to keep up with what you're doing these days. What's this FRN you're going on about?
Re: Volume?
Mackinaw - Broadening the scope a bit, how would any of us know what a market recovering from a better than 50% sell off should react, let alone volume? To me the volume issue is simply an observation at this point, not an indicator.
Re: FRN rolling over?
Sorry, federal reserve note. Attempting to avoid confusion with the semiconductor sector ETF (USD).
Re: “I’m advocating 6 percent inflation"
I do agree that the people who spend first will get more bang for the buck. I learned that here about the fractional reserve system.
I wonder when the banks will start lending in earnest because that is when inflation will start in the economy...I am thinking. I wonder how Bountiful Ben will feel when he has to start taking away the punch bowl? If he can or is willing?
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
"They bleed and do #1 and 2 just like any man!"
That's debatable, it's offensive to reference/associate them with the human race. They may do #1 and #2 but they certainly aren't humans.
Re: Volume?
Mackinaw,
I've wondered the same thing but never really looked into it. The attached chart confirms volume has been actually increasing over the last 2 years.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p21380738420
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
just got home update.
1.25B shares! the current float is 6.18B shares before this new dilution.
So on an eps basis, how are these banks ever going to become growth stocks? that is rhetorical. Now that the crooks have their money, funded by the recent manufactured rally, the only step is to nationalize, hide all the money raised, and take down mom and pop.
its disgusting. and no one is going to stop them.
Re: Vodafoen a buy here?/Brinker '08
vb- The reason I ask is I followed Brinker in the late nineties through the 2000/2001 crash. He spent most of 2000 telling his listeners to get out, and my wife and I finally did in late summer, which saved us from taking a hit later that year. I think Brinker gave the signal to re-enter the market in 2002, again at the right time. So I was curious as to whether he side-stepped last October's drop.
Keeping track?
Hey fellows [2nd & Les]I was able to gain access to the site. Did you notice where the $VIX closed at today? Remember to check where it closes Wed & Thur to see if a Sell or Buy signal is given.
Also keep in mind [for what ever it is worth] tomorrow is one of those so called "phi mate" turn dates Dr McHugh tracks. Will be interesting to see if the market does turn tomorrow and which way. We did print a doji [http://tinyurl.com/4d53bd] on the $SPX & $INDU today.
This has been a rough tape.
Byeeeeee!
Mercator minerals anyone?
Looking to start a position in ML.TO. Good volume and interesting combination of metals (silver/moly/copper) Copper is its biggest producer and I assume it will fluctuate based on copper prices. $1.25 - $1.60 looks like good entry point for a hold of 6 months to a year.
Re: FRN rolling over?
Ah! Here's what I did with UUP so far this year:
March 20: long 160 @ $25.17 (on the pull-back to the trend line)
March 30: long 160 @ $25.79 (on confirmation of support found)
April 29: sell 320 @ $25.20 (stop on trendline breakdown)
The $100 loss was more than offset by the gains it was intended to hedge.
It's currently sitting on what appears to be a pretty important support level, wouldn't you say?
Re: “I’m advocating 6 percent inflation"
I think we'll GET that 6%, but the government will report it as 2% so they can cheat the Social Security recipients by the 4% difference.
Some things never change...
Re: 2010 Conference
The Cara Grand Bahama 2010 Conference will be held in Freeport around the US Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday weekend, which is the 3rd Monday of January.
We are completing negotiations with Our Lucaya resort -- where we will block out rooms in both the Westin and Sheraton (different rates). We will have a booking code number soon.
We will be offering an early bird special for a few months too.
We will be lining up corporate sponsors for this year, which will cover lots of costs for meals and entertainment.
All this will be announced asap in the blog.
For Canadians, WestJet will soon announce non-stop flights to Freeport, at least once per week, and possibly twice per week. If this might be important to you, I recommend you contact WestJet directly and let them know about your plans. I'm sure we could fill a whole plane from Toronto that week.
With lots of time to plan this year, we believe this will be a much bigger conference. I assure you, it will be a blast.
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
"They bleed and do #1 and 2 just like any man!"
Yes, but they do it on a heated Toto with a perfectly angled bidet and perfectly timed hot air dryer.
You're right though, they should be doing it on a suicide-resistant steel model that doubles as a sink.
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
Hey NYU, This is the best article I could find... http://tinyurl.com/pbgh2y .
Re: Keeping track?
Bev- I see the outside close (just barely, to my eyes). Thanks.
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
wouldn't be surprised if the markets rally hard tomorrow. VIX headed to zero?
I bet every headline will read something like "Bank crisis over. Look at BAC. How bad of an investment could they be if they can raise so much captial in a few days."
Re: Vodafoen a buy here?/Brinker '08
2nd,
okay, that makes sense now... A friend of mine who has followed Brinker for years kept telling me all last year "don't worry, Brinker will tell us when to sell before the bottom falls out, I will know ahead of time". I will check and get back on this since I am not sure.
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
NYU- "I bet every headline will read something like "Bank crisis over. Look at BAC. How bad of an investment could they be if they can raise so much captial in a few days."
Me think you be right... From Bloomberg "“I think it’s good news,” Anthony Polini, an analyst at Raymond James, said in a phone interview today from New York before details of the stock sale were released. “I think they went out and talked to institutions about a stock sale and some said, ‘Sure,’ and others said, ‘I’d rather convert the preferred.’”
Re: FRN rolling over?
Good work Mackinaw, I'm not a UUP buyer at this juncture, quite the opposite. Still don't understand why all the fuss about volume when I can't correlate with where volume should be, it seems adequate in consideration of the circumstances. My glass is much closer to half full now than back in October-December, I've learned not to allow myself to be mislead, just trust my instincts and go with the flow.
Re: 2010 Conference
Folks...Go if you can, Bill and company are (Place favorite superlative here) HOSTS. It really was great.
From yesterdays blog
Re: Interesting (Funny?) weekend. new
Submitted by Grym (687 comments) on Tue, 05/19/2009 - 08:20 #28287 (in reply to #28269)
Mark, Vanilla,
Interesting reports. Where do you live, Mark?
Grym- I live in Sonoma County. A little pricey on the real estate side but mostly a service economy, light manufacturing, ag., tourism, tech. Pretty run of the mill stuff. I'm 44 and own a construction co. My only point is while I worry about our economy/business, etc., most people move forward with their lives and try to make the best of the cards they have been dealt. We've had friends and family lose their homes, jobs, marriages, and lives. But that's LIFE. They move forward. As angry and frustrated as I am, I have too, no, want too, remain as positive as possible.
All the best to you and your family.
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
BAC secondary? GS upgraded BAC yesterday to conviction buy list and a $15 target- just shocking as they probably got some friends out yesterday on the upgrade
Next will be salaried/wage employees
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
David Rosenberg's latest
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/rosenberg-re...
Q1 2009 delinquencies
I just came across this post and thought it was important. Sorry if it's already been posted
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Posted by CalculatedRisk on 5/18/2009 09:12:00 PM 207 Comments ShareThis
Fed: Delinquency Rates Surged in Q1 2009
by CalculatedRisk on 5/18/2009 05:07:00 PM
The Federal Reserve reports that delinquency rates rose sharply in Q1 in all categories.
Click on graph (not posted here)
This graph shows the delinquency rates at the commercial banks for residential real estate, commercial real estate and consumer credit cards.
Commercial real estate delinquencies (6.4%) are rising rapidly, and are at the highest rate since the early '90s (as delinquency rates declined following the S&L crisis).
Residential real estate (7.91%) and consumer credit card (6.5%) delinquencies are at the highest levels since the Fed started tracking the data (since Q1 '91).
Although there is credit deterioration everywhere, the rise in these three categories is especially significant. There was also a significant increase in C&I delinquencies (commerical & industrial).
Note: The Fed defines commercial as "construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm, nonresidential real estate", and many of the problems are probably in the C&D loans. These are the loans that will probably lead to the closure of many regional banks.
Also check out the charge-off rates. The charge-off rate for residential real estate increased from 1.58% to 1.8, and for consumer credit cards from 6.33% to 7.49%.
Just more evidence of severe credit problems at the commercial banks.
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
NYU Grad,
I think your analysis is right.
I will choose to play this as a "last location of demand" trade, meaning, I'm looking to sell any rally in BAC as opposed to buy. I could be early, I could be late, but if I size my position correctly and add to it judiciously, time can be on my side.
Re: BAC 825m shares at $10.
Wonder who from GS Obama will name as CEO?
Uses for insider buying
Hi,
I was just experimenting with TD Waterhouse's stock screener and discovered the following.
Insider Buying/selling, Institutional Ownership.
Does anyone here use these type of indicators?
What I see in these indicators is the insider buying either indicates confidence by owners or a ploy to raise stock prices (as in the US Banks) to intice the crowd to join the buying spree.
Institutional ownership affects how quickly the prices can fluctuate. Large institutional positions are probably good for long positions as the selling will not be as spontaneous (single institute moving large quantities of shares).
Any comments much appreciated.
OMG, the Fed taking some roles from SEC!
It's good night to Hope for the people.
Check bloomberg for the SEC piece
Re: silver whipsaw
Dave,
Bill says "We trade prices" but another key is to watch Volume.
When one sees a little downwards price movement on low (>25% normal) volume, then one can speculate that it's just some smart money trying to blow out a few stop orders before entering their own large purchase order. Wyckoff called this "a Boyscout jumping the Creek" ... it's a great pattern, look into it and reap the rewards.
The Fed Squeezes Out the SEC
http://tinyurl.com/oalxfz
And there's another reason for your recent low-volume, penny stock rally, folks.
Bill's blog is more important now than ever ... although his dream of social equity will not be embraced by the US gubmint anytime soon, we can educate ourselves of the risks that come along with such a setup.
Forwarned is forearmed.
Re: The Fed Squeezes Out the SEC
i feel sick to my stomach
Re: The Fed Squeezes Out the SEC
I had that "sick to my stomach" feeling earlier today. In January of this year, the city of Aurora, Colorado received some millions in federal bailout money to ease foreclosure pain. The claim was that money was to be used to buy up "unwanted" foreclosed homes for rehab and resale as a hedge against eyesore and abandonment. Goodness knows why the federal gubmint wants the city of Aurora to get into the house flipping bidness, but such is life. The really sickening thing is that they have been using these funds to out-bid legitimate buyers for these "unwanted" homes at bank auctions.
Taxpayer money used to screw over taxpayers... the only winners are the banks as the prices are artificially bid up by gubmint agents.
Sick and dizzy.
Re: The Fed Squeezes Out the SEC
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currencies, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
-Thomas Jefferson
And regarding the proposed credit card initiative (penalizing people like me who use it for convenience and pay it off every month)...
I'm going to cancel one of mine tomorrow. Don't use it, and tired of paying the stupid fees. Redeemed some "points" for airline tickets and still had to pay a huge sum. What a scam. They can stick this card, and my FICO score (for cancelling it) far up in there.
A lot of "experts" advise people to just pay it off and cut up the card but not to cancel the account because of the FICO score impact. I'm more concerned about identity theft so I'll just cancel it thank you very much. FICO SHMICO. Loan your money to someone else. I don't want it...
KC
Re: 2010 Conference
Bill, I'm interested but also paying attention to what the Swine flu might do this year. It's probably going to maintain its virulence in the southern winter coming now and worst case scenario is that it mutates into something more aggressive, given sufficient time.
As a potential adherent to the 2010 conference, I would be waiting last minute to know the state of that virus. After all, it will be winter in our part of the world at the time and that virus, assuming it is still around, will be most active then in Europe and Nth America.
Getting the web conferencing infrastructure in place might be especially useful to everyone this time round.
Shark Attack
This one is for you.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/ShG2P2IhqPI/...
Majority Jun Option Activity for GLD concentrated on status quo
with a tilt towards the puts, and GLD dropping to 90.
I wonder if we're getting wound up by HB&B's profitable trading activity again?
That activity must include the pros. And they're not looking for higher prices, unless they bought calls that are presently in the money to cover their ambitions.
volume
more smoke and mirrors, tough to keep up with this stuff. From the Globe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/streetwise/
CALI CONFIRMED
ALOHA!!
WOW ... HEY Jeanne Garafalo, this looks like one big huge TEA PARTY to me! Every CALI proposition to raise taxes was defeated, even the Education Funding! WOW ... that used to be the mainstay of my business niche doing public works construction in San Francisco, CA bay area and it was the SACRED COW. I cannot imagine what the bidding wars must look like now. They probably need a couple school buses to do BID WALKS now!
CALI PROPS
Well here is the results of the latest proposition results with 100% precincts reporting:
N 1A "Rainy Day" Budget Stabilization Fund 1,327,400 34.1% 2,555,519 65.9%
N 1B Education Funding. Payment Plan. 1,452,535 37.4% 2,421,906 62.6%
N 1C Lottery Modernization Act 1,368,222 35.4% 2,493,770 64.6%
N 1D Children's Services Funding 1,324,252 34.2% 2,536,657 65.8%
N 1E Mental Health Funding 1,292,437 33.6% 2,549,361 66.4%
Y 1F Elected Officials Salaries 2,859,122 73.9% 1,010,457 26.1%
The little "N" and "Y" means if it passed or not ... "N" = NO and "Y" = YES.
The only proposition that passed was 1F, where elected officials salaries cannot increase during a budget deficit year. I guess that means "forever" unless the elected officials can get "jiggy" with the numbers like the US banks just did and hide the losses!
Can you imagine the idiot at Sacramento that named PROP 1A ... "RAINY DAY"? They should have called it "DAILY HURRICANE AND HUGE ASS AVALANCHE" ...
So if CALI is any example, the citizens are DONE WITH TAXES! WHAT A MANDATE! If that is the case then all GOVERNMENT at all levels must now close up their special little PROMISES SHOPS or get PRINTY! The US TAX REVENUES continue to collapse with no end in sight, yet OBAMA now has spent $7.603TRIL so far in FY2009 according to the latest May 18th US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT. That works out to be $950BIL USD per month or $32BIL USD every day or $1.3BIL per hour! These people who now run our country are SPENDING ADDICTS! They're in some SPENDY EUPHORIA DEATH SPIRAL ... Someone call 911!
This pretty much confirms our move to HAWAII ... My wife and I left California because the taxes were too high and the State was always broke and asking for more taxes. So as the elected officials keep spending they have driven out some of the best businesses and business people. My company was churning out millions in revenues every year and I was personally paying the State of California six figure income tax revenues every year. All that corporate tax and individual tax revenue is gone now. I sold and I ... M-O-V-E-D!
If you go to this website which I follow somewhat Tim Iacono has officially disclosed to his readers that in ten days he is moving out of California. He says this about himself.
"Tim Iacono
About Me
I am a retired software engineer and, in addition to writing this blog, I am also the founder of the investment website Iacono Research and the author of a weekly newsletter that focuses on investing in natural resources."END
The most productive of my long term friends who had businesses in California have moved out. Two that I know have moved to Nevada(less taxes). These people are small business people who are very successful at what they do but do not care to blindly hand over hundreds of thousands of their hard-earned cash to the State Of California's giant black hole of DEBT! Not much we can do about the US GOVERNMENT, but we can move to States with much friendlier tax brackets.
I believe that CALI will see much more BRAIN DRAIN ... I would think there would be many Presidents of countries lined up a mile to throw GOOG ten and twenty year tax incentives just to relocate to their country.
At some point the tax hell deterrent trumps the "cool"!
ALL OUR BEST THINKING ...
Re: The Fed Squeezes Out the SEC
You may want to think about it.
FICO scores determine your insurance rates, employment opportunities, etc. not just CC and loan rates.
Re: credit cards
David,
You are probably right in your outlook for the banks, but simply paying a fee for the convenience is fine with me.
For years they have hassled us with phone calls and direct mail to consolidate all our cards and promises of air miles and other perks — they deserve to get stuck with only the non-payers.
If no grace period, we will use cash or check.
Re: David Rosenberg's latest
I like his macro on Real estate problems. CNBC tried to downplay, via Larry C., the impact of business real estate.
Re: “I’m advocating 6 percent inflation"
"6% inflation and 0% fed funds rate......that sounds great!"
Only if you have a steady job.
From the article:
"Bernanke, 55, said the risk of deflation was receding and that the Fed was ready to reverse course when needed to maintain stable prices and prevent an outbreak of undesired inflation."
More jawboning, IMO. He has always feared deflation and pre-Fed job announced he would take "extraordinary measures" to prevent it. But... raising rates would strangled our already moribund economy.
As long as unemployment is rising (difficult to spin otherwise around here) people will increasingly turn to saving and paying down debt (such as credit cards).
The Chrysler plant here just announced 992 more job cuts yesterday. Buyout offer: $75,000 cash and a $25,000 voucher for a Chrysler product.
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Re: CALI CONFIRMED/Cali Cartel
kaimu-
My suggestion would be to legalize drugs. The state would benefit from hefty taxes on sales, while simultaneously see spending on courts/prisons/police cut by 80% (not to mention the benefits of a much lower crime rate). JMO.
Vinod- When in doubt...
I see the opening will be exactly what I was trying to avoid. Glad I stayed out of the way. I'm going to wait for a better 'signal' than instinct to get short. All cash right now.