Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tuesday, Jun 16, 2009

That old weekly tv series recently came to mind. I can still see the SGT giving the policemen their briefing, pointing his finger at them, and saying "Hey....Hey....Let's be careful out there".

Each day here Bill and others remind that there are dangers out there for us financially and encouraging us to be mindful of what's going on. I appreciate it!

Enjoy the day,
G

"What traders ought to be concerned about, then, is why is there a lack of transparency when these actions are taken each day; and why is it that certain parties in the private sector get to know in advance the day-to-day open market operations of the Fed, to the detriment of the rest of us."

I heard a good one yesterday............All elected members of the Federal Government should be required to wear jumpsuits similar to NASCAR drivers. That way WE THE PEOPLE will know who that person wants to best represent. That would be transparency....and I'm sure that the number of incumbents who get re-elected would drop almost immediately.

And are setting up today's long oil long gold trade.

I am glad. I needed something to make these miners go back up and maybe this will do it:)

Only "miner" that I follow that was up yesterday. Anyone have a clue as to why?

Dipping my toe in the FXC waters premarket. Sigh I usually overpay doing this, but this time it doesn't look too expensive.

Bill, been meaning to ask, under what should CCJ be listed??? I can't find it on any of your tables. Utility? Basic Materials? Industrial?

Shark- I'm falling asleep here. Anything you watch moving?

Homebuilders are having a nice morning...

Mark- Surprised you didn't short the open on UNG.

China will eventually unionize?

For the good of China and the rest of the world, I certainly hope so.

IBM - Target Raised at Thomas Weisel to $140 from $120. Inclinations of low single digit revenue growth, modest margin expansion, potential acquisitions, and share repurchases supports high single digit EPS growth. Maintained Overweight rating.

that vicl was added to rus. 3000 last week... guess the party boys will take it to the $ 2.30 range, and maybe pop-it on 'official' rus. release..

2nd- I really thought about it PM. I'm hoping to find, or someone else, the definitive word on how UNG works. Anyone??

Can't tell you the details of that, but personally, I won't buy it again because it requires a Schedule K-1 (like a limited partnership) which adds to the hassle of figuring out my unconstitutional income tax every year. Same applies to UGA.

Regards,
KC

A bet on increased volatility. VXX has not turned as hard as VIX, and whether that's an opportunity or a "tracking error" remains to be seen.

If indeed we are beginning a wave B down, in an ABC counter-trend rally in a primary Bear, then I anticipate that, from here into the base of C up will be choppy. VXX has a crossover in the daily full STO at the 20 line. Trying entry below 75 to sell in the 80s. If VXX tracks well, moves could be explosixe.

DX hammered nicely this AM. Took bite of TBT in low 55's. Good trading at this inflection point!

http://baselinescenario.com/2009/06/16/president-obama’s-regulatory-reforms-announcement-a-viewer’s-guide/#more-4084

cut n paste

Bing is being recieved well. Last month Msft is up 17% while Nas is only up 8%. Maybe it is time to short google, their moat looks really shallow now.
Bob

Heinekin dropping retail prices...!!

westcoaster

Thanks for the link. After reading that I will either short only UNG or either day or swing [few days] trade it. No long term hold.

stupid me, with the 50 and 200 day MA behind it there was nothing but blue sky above.

Presently up 15%. Will wait to see if PPT helps out at closing.

Gold appears to be respecting resistance today, according to twiggs. Bill is bullish, so here's to a quick drop to support and recharged batteries, for the battering through 1000.

Not long but wishing I was....This looks really good.

still long auy

Interestingly the airlines are nicely in the green despite oil bouncing back. Still holding the UAUA on a short leash though. I'm skeptical that oil can go much higher here without applying a death choke to the global economy.

UUP keeps heading down this morning after yesterdays enthusiastic last minute close up. But TLT doesn't mind and keeps going higher, pushing TBT down. And the VIX is at the highend of it's 3-1/2 month downward sloping range.

Would anyone buy bonds out of increased fear, disregarding $USD? That is whenever the fed stops monetizing U.S. Thirdworld Debt by buying back Treasuries.

Something has to give here. Either $USD starts rising from the ashes or TLT needs to fallback, when the feds done buying of course. I wonder where all the extra dollars will go, from the fed buying all those Treasuries?

Could ya' see him as Sec. of State ? ! ... He would talk em' into agreement, just so they could leave..!!

CP,

"It's against U.S. law to ship them overseas without special permission. 60 Minutes took down the container's number and followed it to Tacoma, Wash., where it was loaded on a ship."

Not to worry... They probably are OK due to "Cap & Trade".

Are we going to get serious about this toxic stuff or simply rely on evolution to make us impervious to it?

With all the contaminated human and pet food we import uninspected (FDA is about as effective as our financial agencies) we might want to stop exchanging our crap for fish farm salmon and cod.

This is solving the Social Security and Medicare issue the hard way.

Thanks, I'll give BAN consideration.

he's one of the "living" constitutionalists, not a constructionist.

This may be where they are going.

Hussman: Sideways motion

http://tiny.cc/s5jbk

Yes, thanks Les.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p36310085185

ALOHA !!

"GOVERNMENT IS ESSENTIALLY THE NEGATION OF LIBERTY ..."-Ludwig Von Mises

Those words were written nearly 60 years ago ... The Vietnam War started 44 years ago when JFK was in office. Last night my wife and I were talking about how very soon the last of the people who lived during the Great Depression and fought in WW2 will be gone ... they will be off the face of the Earth forever. The youth of America really have not experienced any hardships in decades, unless they volunteer for tours of duty in the Middle East. Where will they get their first hand knowledge of true "struggles" from P Ditty, Fiddy-Cent? Like Spielberg documented the Holocaust survivors where are the video documentations of the Great Depression or WW2 or soon to be the Vietnam War? The "elite" will revise history for sure. That is statist doctrine. Americans are great at forgetting because we have been trained to.

Just as there has been a gradual devaluation(loss of purchasing power)of the US Dollar, so too I see a gradual decline in free markets. It was in 1999, that under Clinton, Glass-Steagall was negated. Now OBAMA has declared we need NEW regulators and NEW laws. My bet is that these NEW markets he will create will be even less "free" than prior to 1999.

Look at WAR in America. When was the last time the US CONgress actually "declared" a WAR? Or even debated one? More gradual loss of Rights and Liberty. Our last President Bush2 and Cheney spoke of "water boarding" like they were doing a TV ad for "Slip N Slide"! Those two "draft dodgers" were elected to two terms.

It is no surprise to me that OBAMA is a sell out. Why? Because we are a BAILOUT NATION of "SELLOUTS"!

Wasn't it Martha Stewart who was the last Wall Street "insider" to go to jail?

Maybe Bernie Madoff will see some serious jail time, but in all honesty he, essentially, turned himself in. With the SEC we now have he would still be walking the streets, hustling his CON like Thain and Lewis and Pandit are right now!

Look at BSC and LEH ... LEH did a $691BIL USD bankruptcy and nobody is even remotely investigated or even challenged one bit. Where is Dick Fuld today?

So let me see if I get the DRIFT ... The bankruptcies are getting BIGGER and BIGGER and MORE and MORE and we get yet even more regulation that yields less transparency as Wall Street literally sits in the Oval Office every day and somehow the people of the World still applaud the WEALTH of America ... Its not wealth ... its DEBT! Does not the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT spell that out loud and clear?

In 2001 when I bought my first Credit Suisse one ounce gold bar people said I should be picking up the "bargains" on the NASDAQ instead. When Gold went to $400USD an ounce people said I should sell. Then when it went over $500USD they said I should sell, but asked in the same breath if they should buy. Then when it went over $600USD they said they should have bought at $400USD. Then when it went over $700USD they said it was too high and they would wait for it to come down. Then when it went over $800USD they told me it was still too high and they would wait, but they should have bought at $500USD. Then when it went over $900USD they said I was a fool if I did not sell, but they also said they were fools for waiting so long. These people are still waiting and these are the ones who want to "time" their entry to perfection at the 9 handle!

What they failed to do is take the time to understand money in the first place. To understand DEBT and to understand our government's long term addiction to DEBT. It goes back to 1835, the last year the USA was DEBT FREE, over 174 years ago ... 174 years of DEBT addiction that has grown by leaps and bounds to where we are today ... talking TRILLIONS!

So here we sit in America on the cusp of "socialized medicine" on top of the TRILLIONS I have shown you that this government already spent in less than nine months time and everyone here is debating INFLATION and DEFLATION. I do not waste my time, but instead let the INTERVENTIONISTS fail ... That is what they do best. There is a "long train of abuses" in our history that attests to that fact. We are spending TRILLIONS ON TOP OF TRILLIONS with even more TRILLIONS of PROMISES in the pipeline. What do you think is going to happen ... RECOVERY? Its called "buying time"! At some point all the DEBT in the World won't even buy ZERO growth!

Nobody on this BLOG is an "insider" any where, least of all the US FED. So in reality nobody here knows anything for sure. We all "react" ... There was a time when Greenspan would have been hung for TREASON, but instead he is awarded medals ... that's how far we have come in our acceptance of the US FED's dominance over our lives. That's total abdication ...

When I hear talk here about how "GOLD" in America, is at its height of popularity I have to laugh. I know more people on unemployment than own gold! So if anything is popular right now in America it is unemployment! When you can walk into any Bank America branch and go to the "gold window" that will be the height. Go to other countries and compare ... as far as I can see Americans are at their zenith of HUH? in terms of gold. Americans still worship DEBT! We vote for it every chance we get! Radical CHANGE has to happen NOW or COLLAPSE WILL HAPPEN! My bet is on COLLAPSE ... of the monetary type! There are no "do-overs" or "time outs" of "two minute warnings" ...

Hummmmm???

After a 15 minute rally on nice volume presumably from the "housing starts" news, the home builders are pretty much collapsing. Perhaps it was a brief bout of short covering? After the open, the move down has been almost uninterrupted red.

Wonder if bloomberg will rewrite their #1 story anytime soon.

FD: short XHB

..

Fitzpat had the bull by the balls on his charts Friday... " buy, Buy, BUY ".... Dr. 'J' was all in.... 'Halftime' on bubblevision just now.... SELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL... bombs away.. when will CNBC be dragged into court ?

allengg, a useful mirror of your theory is over 2000 years old.

The Tibetan wheel of life identifies the " hub" of our cyclic existence as the 3 poisons: delusion (symbolized by the pig), hatred (the snake) and greed (the cock) as chasing each other. To escape the cycle one must choose the opposite reactionary behavior and living more creatively.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhavacakra

Enjoy!

presents itself.

Interesting trend on Twitter for this new info out today
Matrixx Initiatives Inc., maker of Zicam Cold Remedy products sold in drugstores, lost more than half its value in Nasdaq trading after U.S. regulators warned its products may cause users to lose their sense of smell.

Matrixx, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, fell $10.68, or 56 percent, to $8.56 before Nasdaq Stock Market trading was halted. That’s the biggest intraday decline since its 1996 initial public offering.

The Food and Drug Administration warned the company today its homeopathic Zicam Cold Remedy Nasal Gel, Gel Swabs and Kids Size swabs have been linked to more than 130 reports of people losing their sense of smell. The FDA letter says many homeopathic products can be sold without U.S. approval. Because of “a significant and growing body of evidence” that the Zicam products “may pose a serious risk to consumers,” the agency said Matrixx must get FDA approval for its remedies.

http://bit.ly/X3gUq

I bought a small amount of TBT today primarily as an inflation hedge. I know there are countervailing opinions, but I don't see how adding so much money doesn't eventually drive up interest rates. This will be a terrible thing, and so I hope this investment proves unnecessary.

If you're holding ESLR, be aware that tomorrow is their annual stockholder's meeting. Anyone who follows this closely knows that management is under extreme criticism right now for a number of financing missteps, the most recent being the Silpro debacle and the 20% dilutive stock offering at historically low prices.

And then there is the most recent stock awards given to upper management. This company is singularly adept at awarding themselves out-sized compensation while under performing against their business model. They represent the worst of executive greed and lack of accountability.

I'm hoping the common shareholders who attend that meeting give it the management and the feckless BOD with both barrels.

Did you actually read Hussman's view? His is not a deep pockets view.

The idea whether the Fed CAN really manage the economy by diddling with monetary supply is the greater issue, IMO.

I just heard Mort Zuckerman on TV. Last I heard from him on the McLaughlin Group he was totally in Treasuries Today he was still calling deflation the current problem.

TLT is up and so will my Treasuries mutual fund be today. I have often mentioned I seldom trade truly short term like most folks here. T-Bonds are my way of trading in slow motion :-)

Bev- Hoping for that gap fill @ 8.40.

I would have to press the short side.

FYI:

Matrixx Initiatives Inc. Confirms Received a Warning Letter From the FDA
- FDA has asserted that the Company is in violation of its regulations by failing to file a new drug application for its Zicam Cold Remedy Nasal Gel and Zicam Cold Remedy Gel Swabs and that those products are misbranded under their regulations for failing to adequately warn of risks. The FDA referred to numerous complaints it has received of anosmia associated with the use of these products.
- Company believes these products are safe and do not cause anosmia. The Company''s position is supported by the cumulative science and has been confirmed by a multi-disciplinary panel of scientists.

MTXX will open at 2:55; quotes start at 2:50

Good luck

2nd, Bev - thought I was so smart yesterday getting slw at $10.67 CDN. Today-not so smart. But I was legging in so will take another little bite here, with lots of fear attached.
s

I added the MA[50]for you. If this doesn't hold I bet you it may fill the gap.

http://tinyurl.com/n5a4go

A number of stocks I watch have skidded below RS7 30 and to the lower edge of BB, some in just the last 2-3 days but several starting last week.

Another bet when the first "bet" is already underwater? :) No thanks, not yet. I do believe in the fundamentals, and trust Bill implicitly so I'm happy to hold for now...with a stop.
s
EDIT - meant to add that I agree with you if the 50ma is taken out.

Thanks Vad, Have never bought a stock in such a situation. Try my luck at 6.00. Certainly the technicals can change, but the 200 day MA has got a long way to fall. I'm counting on consumers having a short memory ;)

and 'sound science' as well, of course :p

edit: WOW, talk about volatility!

Considering the $USD is crashing once again and SLW June Max Pain has a 9 handle, I wouldn't be too quick to panic.

FD: No position!

EDIT - I got that wrong, the June Max Pain is $7.5, I was thinking of AUY!!!

Looks good to me here to...Adding @ 8.92

westcoaster,
Thanks for the UNG article link. Here's yesterday's holdings and trades pending from the UNG site.
http://www.unitedstatesnaturalgasfund.com/ung_hold...

Purusing the other links at the foot of the article, I came across this linked article, which some NatGas traders may find interesting. The article is general, but has some charts I have not find elsewhere.
http://www.cavemanforecaster.com/2009/06/natural-g...

In one of the articles I read this morning there was reference to the UNG fund increasing its shares outstanding, and that it would need to do so again within days. I didn't see this anywhere else.

The popularity of the NatGas trade has me a little worried. There is likely to be more volatility unrelated to any underlying fundamentals like on March 19 (good for some of the day traders on this site). It is a truism that the market will do that which delivers the most harm to the majority of participants. This is a mathematical certainty because it is the only way a small percentage of participants can consistently collect large profits.

The contango in NatGas is large, with a large increase starting with November.
http://www.metalprices.com/FreeSite/metals/ng/ng.asp

With bullish articles for NatGas popping up on Google News almost every hour, I have to be suspicious that the normal seasonal trend will prevail, and prices will pull back into July, perhaps setting a new low for the year.

Storage will still become a big issue, and news on storage can be emphasized to drive price down. Once all the funds and small investors are loaded up on UNG, who's left to buy? Is it possible the "big boys" have found a new pen to herd the sheep into?

The current storage level and injection rates still project to the highest storage level ever by the end of October. The EIA's latest short term forecast was for NatGas production to drop 1.1% in 2009, but consumption to drop by 2.2%.

From various articles I have read it would appear that the long term supply/demand should be balanced by late summer/early fall, and that after that the supply/demand ratio will continue to drop (adjusted for seasonal demand swings), possibly leading to low storage levels in the fall of 2010 if industrial demand picks up significantly.

There are too many variables to make long term forecasts, but the probabilities seem high in favour of a price rise into the fall of 2010, up 50%-100% from current levels. Because I play the seasonal swings I don't usually look that far out. My normal target is for 50% from July to October, with smaller 10-20% tradeable moves along the way.

My fondest hope is for a "whites of their eyes" price dip in NatGas in the summer (to $2.50-2.75) to take on a big position, but that event may not occur. In the meanwhile I trade price swings (currently short with HND-T) and wait to see how the dynamics play out.

Less, I'll give you a little company @ 5.85.

Thanks for that report and strategy idea, Bill.

Oh my gosh don't tell me we're going to close down? And with a big red candle too! This is unthinkable. Write your congressman! Or in my case, the Speaker of the House!

THURSDAY: Watch Bernanke

In light of what I said before about drains of liquidity....

The salmon-colored day is the one to pay attention to. [see attached]

It is always dangerous to assume that an expiring block of paper will not be rolled. It usually is. But - if it is not, in this case, roughly $100 billion in cash will come out of the "sloshing cash" in the banking system.

Of late it has been unusual for there to be visible OMO. Note that the table's first three columns are zeros - this is the result of The Fed's "unusual" policies, and is why my usual FedWatch has produced no information via this route for months, unlike the September 24th Ticker.

(TIOs can usually be ignored as they rarely have any impact on the overall condition of system liquidity.)

But the TAF maturation, if it does not roll, is a big deal.

What's T+3? Monday/Tuesday after options expiration, a nasty time for a liquidity drain to show up. If that drain does happen on Thursday you can expect to see it in the market some time within the next week, probably Monday or Tuesday, and it won't be pretty.

File this one in the "teach a man to fish" department; you can find this data, any time you'd like it, at http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx

Now you know how to read one of the tools that I use to watch Ben and his Merry Men - the tool that, in fact, caught him in September of 2008.

UPDATE 9:04 AM: The Fed has just announced an intent to award $48B in TAF paper, implying that about half of the $100 billion will roll and the rest drain. Again you cannot be sure until the day passes, and sometimes until the next day, but this is what it looks like.

Next resistance looks like around $92.50. Then around $94. Then probably the 50 MA. Raising my mental stop to around the 20 MA which it crushed today.

how do you blatantly COPY someone else's work and not even have the decency to mention their name anywhere in said post?

could've scalped a quick exit Mark, but one medicine causing a possible side effect in 100 of 350 odd million people isn't enough to send this stock to the toilet.

Looking for 50%+. Look how solid that stock was prior to this issue. Assuming price is tainted now and low points of range (10 - 14$)become new resistance at best.

With SPY hitting red hard and PM's encountering resistance and possibly falling, I'll be delaying new entry into miners.

TLT's probably gonna bounce all the way to the new bottom on the S&P as well.

Bill's TOG, here we come.

Night all.

1st time in a while the selling volume accelerated into the close & no ppt in site.

Dow http://tinyurl.com/mu4cjj
Nasdaq http://tinyurl.com/mbkf9t
S&P http://tinyurl.com/l6287u

Off AH @ 5.83. Missed the chance to sell for 6.60. Les, be careful holding this.

More on the meeting referenced by Bill. Very interesting. Financial Times article

http://tinyurl.com/l22on2

TLT Rally - Just a guess, but is there some short covering going on? TBT failed support 6/12, maybe the Treasury rally is running out of steam soon?

As the market sells off, wouldn't we expect a Treasury rally? I can think of some good reasons why the market is selling this week aside from just Uncle Ben's task at sleight of hand is to keep those mortgage rates down until housing inventory improves.

I'm staying away from Treasuries, the dollar needs to become weaker and there's not much disclosure that's of use coming from the monetary wizards, can't trust them.

Short covering, Wizards's manipulating? Who knows? Conditions suggest to me that some basic money management is going on behind it all, also. USD index's found some footing here around 80, long treasuries were oversold too, now yielding ~4%, risk in some equities/commodities might be getting a little hot. Maybe some money cooling it's heels for the summer? for a day or two? Maybe sidelined bond money was getting bored? Who knows? Just follow the bouncing ball...

double post

I'll go along with all of the above, primarily because I can't prove otherwise. In support, I would like to add that according to the Max Pain calculator, many, many equities are overbought.

I'm trying to get my head around the Canadian market's action today. While the TSE certainly lost some important support (20 MA, held since March 12), not unpredictable given recent C$ weakness and a great run in oils/materials/financials since March 9, it still remains in Bull mode (price>50MA>200MA). There seems to have been a shift to yield-bearing items today: corporates (which look insanely frothy although yields are still great; see XCB), some short bonds(see XSB), and dividend leaders held up relatively better. Currently reviewing the Bank of Canada data, http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/graphs/a1-table.html which is showing some frantic monetary policy action to stave off deflationary pressure against the backdrop of normalizing inflation expectations. TSE found and held some strong support at ~10290 level.

to lower interest rates and mortgage rates couldn't you do it by creating a demand for treausuries by tanking the stock market?

The seasonal price bias for bonds was at the low Friday. Gold is also at it's seasonal price bias low. I expect that bonds will fill out their weekly price gaps be rallying a few points. I wonder if anybody gets that the risks are in the sovereign bonds.

(iPhone)

"to lower interest rates and mortgage rates couldn't you do it by creating a demand for treausuries by tanking the stock market?"

Absolutely, however, a tanking equities market has a psychological impact which telegraphs back into the economy in the form of lower prices, stronger currency, reduced ability to service debt, job losses, reduction in consumer consumption, etc.

Perhaps once the Treasuries are sold, the market will meet with new rounds of coaxing.

As another deadline passes for State legislators to come up with a fix for Cal’s $24B budget deficit, the White House today said they would continue to “monitor” the situation, but won’t provide federal assistance.

Meanwhile, Standard and Poor’s may issue a ratings cut on $67.1B worth of Cal debt.

Footnote: “To rent a 26-foot truck one-way from San Francisco to Austin, the charge is $3,236, and yet the one-way charge for that same truck from Austin to San Francisco is just $399. Clearly what is happening is that far more people want to move from San Francisco to Austin than vice versa, so U-Haul has to pay its own employees to drive the empty trucks back from Texas." (NewGeography.com)

http://tinyurl.com/mclvws
http://tinyurl.com/maba3z

I think Jim Cramer would be best described as “That bi-polar guy shouting random shit every day.”

"...a tanking equities market has a psychological impact which telegraphs back into the economy in the form of lower prices, stronger currency, reduced ability to service debt, job losses, reduction in consumer consumption, etc.

Perhaps once the Treasuries are sold, the market will meet with new rounds of coaxing."

For sure, CP.

The Fed is trapped and will probably continue this back and forth, up and down action for some time. (Although I see it more of a need to rise rates to make Treasuries more attractive to foreign purchasers.)

At any rate tanking he equities when people are already hurting from the huge tanking last year would be a real disaster too.

Bernanke and Timmy will keep the fiction going before congressional committees and the media will continue to accommodate them. I wonder what we'll get as a "Green Shoots" and "Less Bad" replacement. i suppose they could endure indefinitely — look how long "Middle East Peace Process" has lasted.

"I wonder if anybody gets that the risks are in the sovereign bonds."

Ya Fran, but not as much as was the case in December. :P

could be a great summer job for students.

Headed up your way this weekend to visit with the son and daughter...

You should borrow a bike and make time for at least the downhill trip on Sawyer Camp Trail ;) Nothing much has changed. They moved the restroom that used to be at the bottom of the grade to the top of the grade.

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/freetop.aspx

谢谢您的支持。

Well, you needn't use 您. 你 is good enough ;)

http://tinyurl.com/m2z2m8

"A staunch fiscal and social conservative, Ensign has been considered a rising star in his party, recently making headlines by speaking at events in Iowa, raising speculation about his interest in a run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012.

A born-again Christian, Ensign has been a member of the Promise Keepers, a male evangelical group that promotes marital fidelity.

When former Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) was arrested in an airport men’s room in the summer of 2007, Ensign was among Craig’s toughest critics, saying Craig should step down because he had been charged with a crime.

“I wouldn’t put myself, hopefully, in that kind of position, but if I was in a position like that, that’s what I would do,” Ensign told The Associated Press at the time.

During the 1998 impeachment of President Bill Clinton, Ensign, then a Senate candidate, called on Clinton to resign."

Bev
Many time my post contain information from few or many article or blog I read. I am not going to list all article or blog I read.
We are not writing a thesis for doctoral degree or publishing to make money of it.
This is my take

First off, Bev there is no need to apologize. Half the post's here are regurgitation of Bill's thoughts anyway. Simple mistake. Plagiarism hardly. I have read many post't that I thought were by the poster that were cut and paste jobs. Most of the time I am able to figure it out. Please post anything that you feel is relevant to trading and don't feel over sensitive about proper citation. If someone wonders they should ask ect. This is a free flow of ideas forum. I would hate to see anything damming up the flow. Your response was appropriate and measured. You obviously can take care of yourself. Likewise though Sammas has had 99 posts and I don't remember any other confrontational post. I could be wrong, but I think we should look at Sammas post as an aberration. Maybe he was unintentionally too forceful or maybe he was long SLW. Whatever the case I plead we just write this off as a one time family fracas. Bill would be pleased we handled this ourselves.
Bob

vinod- It sounds like you guys had a good time today. Especially the food fight around 1137-1140, LOL.

2nd
I just notice it. I was not there at that time. Usualy I rejoined them around 13.30.
I read a article in todays WSJ and strange thing can happen in UNG and it may shoot up for short term regardless of price of NG.they got over 3billion in this fund (from 750mil)and haven't got permission to issue more share yet from regulator. so, share are in short supply

2nd- Not the WSJ article but it speaks to the same issue.

2nd- Not the WSJ article but it speaks to the same issue.

http://tinyurl.com/mqo3wv

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124511922172917659...

"ETFs accommodate investor demand by essentially creating new fund shares whenever investors want to buy them. But commodity funds, with a unique legal structure, don't have the same flexibility in this regard as stock ETFs.

Anticipating a spike in demand earlier this year, managers of U.S. Natural Gas Fund filed with the SEC to boost the number of shares the fund kept available by about 300 million in late March. By early May, the SEC had yet to act, and the company made another filing, warning it had only about eight million shares in reserve and could soon run out.

The original request was granted a few days later, but only after the fund had been unable to meet investor demand for about two days, nearly imperiling its operations.

It turned out the fund's problems weren't over. Demand has continued to swell, and early this month managers filed for one billion more shares. This time the fund is in danger of being unable to issue new shares for a much longer time, unless the SEC moves much more quickly than it did before."

Maybe I should hang onto 1000 shares for the same reason people (who o/w couldn't care less) bought Beanie Babies.

"Save your eyeballs and only read one. Or, one eye for each."

May be why Vad (threei) does so well.

So I think. Trappers know no bounds.

vinod- I typed "Fund Track Ian Salisbury June 16, 2009" in the Google search field, and there it was. Thanks for supplying the key words ;)

Shiva- I think it's related to the volume of NGas futures the ETF is buying. I could create an EFT that tracks the price of Beanie Babies, and back the fund by buying BBs. If I end up buying 60% of the BBs in the country due to demand for the ETF, then obviously I will end up influencing national prices. At least, that's my (simplistic) reasoning.

Shiva/2nd- Yep, and it could drive the share price of UNG higher than the underlying futures support. So, what's not to like? For me, a lot. I was hoping to make a LT bet on the future price of NG. Based on supply and demand. Simple, no? Well, apparently not with UNG. I'm not interested in betting against, or with, a bunch of "bobble-heads" that can actually effect the cost of NG.

So, I'll just trade it.

Bill, I saw that you took a position in UNG a while back. Is this issue a concern to you?

CP- Please tell me you took some profits @ .69.

2nd/Mark, thx. That explains the spike yday when oil was down.

Mark - i am waiting to see if UNG pulls back a bit to trade it

Using iTrade (formerly Etrade Canada), I entered a stink offer of naked calls, sell to open, at about 30% above the listed "ask" price, but only 10% above the "last" price. Thinly traded options. My "ask" price was never shown in the day's quotations (order was day only, the only one allowed by iTrade for naked short calls). The options were for Jan 2010.

Can anyone please explain why my "ask" price never made it to bid/ask quotes?

thanks,
MT

I don't know if this is the definitive version, but it is interesting. Jerry in shorts?
http://tinyurl.com/Steve-and-jerry

"The consequences of the monetary bender the government has put on could be huge," Mr. Spitznagel says.
The new fund, expected to start trading in July, will place bets on options tied to assets expected to benefit from a big leap in prices, including commodities such as corn and crude oil, and options on shares of oil drillers and gold miners. It also will short Treasury bonds, likely to weaken in an inflationary economy.
"One thing Mark taught me was that when someone isn't afraid of losing small amounts, they're almost invincible" because they have more staying power, Mr. Taleb said.

Mark Spitznagel made a fortune predicting the "black swan" that hit markets last year. Now the relatively unknown hedge-fund manager is emerging from the shadow of his collaborator, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, with a big bet inflation will soar.

TOG anyone?

The hedges I set up for my long positions (short FCX, long SKF) are finally doing their job. The market has only started breaking down (great call about this, teamonfuego!) and is not oversold yet, so it is still too early to close my hedges. I do have sell limit orders on some SKF at 51, 55 and 61, which I bought at lower prices.

I am glad that the UNG I bought last week at $14.20 (I bought two lots of shares that added up to about 7% of my portfolio -- a large position for me) as a "hedge" on the FCX, whose growth started disturbing me (since I was short FCX), has performed better than I hoped -- FCX is down and UNG is up! I am still holding my UNG, since I think we have seen its bottom (at $12.70). Besides, I am waiting for the options expiration on Friday to see if more UNG shares will be assigned to me (I am short some June puts at $14 and $16, but I am also short some UNG calls at $14).

I have just placed buy limit orders on ESLR at $2.2 and $2, to replace the shares I sold at $2.68. Also, I have just placed small buy limit orders on SLW at $8 and $8.50, since I suspect I might not have access to the internet next week.