[7:30am ET] An increasing number of technical analysts are suggesting that equity markets are now prone to a significant corrective swing and perhaps a trend reversal. However, as per the advice given on the weekend, until the S&P 500 takes out 920 on the downside, the upside must be given the benefit of doubt, with S&P 1000-1020 a distinct possibility.
There are, we note, heightened risks. Equity markets have been advancing 12 to 14 weeks without a basis of strong corporate fundamentals or positive macro-economic data. High liquidity levels caused by various programs of the international monetary authorities have so far been the driver for the market to rebound from March lows where they appear to be acting well in a rotating market action as a fix to any short-term overbought conditions.
But in light of the extendedness in global markets, and the fact that recent volume levels have been decreasing, and there is evidence of slowdown in its RSI and MACD, traders ought to be considering possible defensive actions in the event that market retracements suddenly appear. This is called preparedness, something most traders had not considered on Black Monday October 19, 1987, when the major market indexes plummeted about -25% in a matter of hours.
If you are prepared for the possibility of an extreme event, you can relax and simply let the market reveal itself and go with the path of least resistance. Until the market takes out S&P 920, or breaks out above 1020, there are no long-term decisions that need to be made, leaving day-to-day activities for study purposes.
No matter how frustrating or agonizing the wait, I believe that patience will be rewarded.
Have a great day.
Comments
Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
RE:>This is called preparedness, something most traders had not considered on Black Monday October 19, 1987, when the major market indexes plummeted about -25% in a matter of hours.
-25% in less than a session ???
I recall your stories that traders weren't really familiar with options at that time. Did they all get caught with their pants down? I assume you would have been using options strategies by then to counter such events? How does one prepare for an extreme event like that now? Buy puts? Bearish options spreads?
the power to issue its own debt
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
une 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve has backed off from seeking a new tool to forestall inflation, refraining from asking Congress for the power to issue its own debt, according to a person familiar with the matter.
After central bankers repeatedly said Fed bills would be a useful additional tool to mop up liquidity, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke omitted mention of the idea in congressional testimony last week. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Fed hasn’t made a formal request to lawmakers.
More Stress Tests
On CNBC this morning Prof. Elizabeth Warren, called for rerunning the bank stress tests periodically. She pointed out that the most extreme scenario in the test of 8.8% unemployment has already been surpassed. She wants updated data as it emerges used to retest the computer modeling.
She is concerned the recent test does not cover a long enough time period and commercial mortgages, which will soon be a major problem, are not within the time frame of the past test.
When asked how we can get more transparency, more testing and more accountability, she replied, "I'm doing it now — asking for it publicly and privately." She said Treasury has been progressing, but she will continue to press them on these points.
She also said she doesn't understand the politics of it all, nor does she want to, but in her view Congress has written a "perfectly ambiguous law" regarding what happens to any money paid back by the banks.
My view is that she is bright, honest and far too polite for anything substantive to come of this "investigation". But if WE expect action, WE THE PEOPLE MUST DEMAND ACTION FROM CONGRESS!
Gold is catching a bid...
956
a doubling in U.S. consumer prices over the coming decade
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090608.htm
"The menu of policy responses still allowed a good chance for proper government decisions. The possible policy responses might have included pressing bank bondholders to swap debt for equity in lieu of receivership, prompt regulatory action toward near-insolvent institutions with deep capital shortfalls, legislative changes to allow rapid “whole-entity” conservatorship and subsequent sale of non-bank financial entities (which should have been initiated at the time of Bear Stearns, and could have saved us from the disorderly unwinding of Lehman), restrictions and capital requirements relating to credit default swaps, and not least, aggressive efforts to mitigate foreclosure risk by helping to administer property appreciation rights (what are in effect debt-equity swaps on the mortgage side).
As it happened, rather than following policies that would have allowed for a sustainable recovery, our policy makers opted for a stunningly unethical strategy of making bank bondholders whole with well over a trillion dollars in public funds, watering down accounting rules to allow banks to go quietly insolvent while reporting encouraging “operating profits,” looking beyond the continued shortfall of loan loss reserves in relation to loan defaults, and doing nothing meaningful with regard to foreclosures, whose rates continue to soar and which face a fresh wave later this year and well into 2010 and 2011. These policy responses have more than doubled the U.S. monetary base within a period of months, added a trillion more in outstanding Treasury debt, and virtually assure that the value of those government liabilities will be repriced in relation to goods and services over the coming decade.
A range of different methodologies suggest a doubling in U.S. consumer prices over the coming decade, though with the majority of this pressure occurring 3-4 years out and beyond."
I'm starting to wonder if Krugman is a Fed spokesperson
It is a brave or foolhardy man who picks a fight with Mr Krugman, the most recent recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics. Yet a cat may look at a king, and sometimes a historian can challenge an economist.
A month ago Mr Krugman and I sat on a panel convened in New York to discuss the financial crisis. I made the point that “the running of massive fiscal deficits in excess of 12 per cent of gross domestic product this year, and the issuance therefore of vast quantities of freshly-minted bonds” was likely to push long-term interest rates up, at a time when the Federal Reserve aims at keeping them down. I predicted a “painful tug-of-war between our monetary policy and our fiscal policy, as the markets realise just what a vast quantity of bonds are going to have to be absorbed by the financial system this year”.
De haut en bas came the patronising response: I belonged to a “Dark Age” of economics. It was “really sad” that my knowledge of the dismal science had not even got up to 1937 (the year after Keynes’s General Theory was published), much less its zenith in 2005 (the year Mr Krugman’s macro-economics textbook appeared). Did I not grasp that the key to the crisis was “a vast excess of desired savings over willing investment”? “We have a global savings glut,” explained Mr Krugman, “which is why there is, in fact, no upward pressure on interest rates.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a635d12c-4c7c-11de-a6c5-...
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
GG - Downgraded to Neutral @ UBS
The German Bundestag says NO to a retailer bailout.
Arcandor, the German retailer that owns the Karstadt department store chain and a 53 per cent stake in UK travel group Thomas Cook, told the government on Tuesday that it would file for insolvency after failing to secure state aid, Berlin officials said.
Arcandor executives took the decision to call in the administrators after the government on Mondary rejected their application for a state guarantee on loans of €650m, and an alternative plan to get €437m in emergency state loans. Trading in its shares on the Deutsche Börse were suspended Tuesday.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/176a93be-54e8-11de-b953-...
Gold not taking no for an answer so far this morning.
Citi issuing another 33 billion in shares
"Citigroup on Monday confirmed it would launch a long-awaited $33bn capital raising this week in a move aimed at allaying investors’ fears over the offering and concerns over mounting regulatory pressure...
Citi will begin a conversion of preferred shares into common stock held by the US government and other shareholders this week, as reported by the Financial Times on Saturday."
Talking about dilution. Zombie bank or not, it ain't gonna make a buck in dividends for years.
Goldman raising further capital selling China bank investment
"Goldman Sachs on Monday sold up to $1.9bn worth of shares in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, in the latest high-profile divestment of stock in a mainland lender.
On Monday, the US bank began advanced talks with institutional investors to sell up to 3.03bn Hong Kong-listed shares in ICBC, the world’s biggest bank by market capitalisation and deposits, according to people familiar with the matter. The sale will leave Goldman with a 4 per cent holding in ICBC, which it will retain until at least April 2010"
On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised $1.9bn on top of the $5bn gained from a previous share issue through the sale of part of its stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
The Bank sector isn't finished sucking in capital yet. Note that this occurred last week.
Re: I'm starting to wonder if Krugman is a Fed spokesperson
"It is a brave or foolhardy man who picks a fight with Mr Krugman, the most recent recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics."
As I recall the Long Term Capital Management Fund was run by Nobel prize guys.
However, what Krugman said about savings is the crux of many long time Treasuries holders arguments for deflation. This is, of course, the direct opposite of the Fed's plan to reflate away the debt bubble.
I predict all such predictions are in uncharted territory and therefore nearly useless — including mine.
We are forced to live with what eventually happens. (And so is the Fed.)
Spike in 2-Year T-Note yields
Mr Cara
On Friday and again on Monday the 2-Year T-Note yield rose upwards to its highest level in 7 months. Is this a "fear signal" that the Feds may possibly raise short term rates at their next meeting [June 23-24]? If so then could this be the trigger for the expected sell off in stocks?
Herded through the Grapevine
Interstate 5 is the major commercial route between Northern and Southern California. The southbound stretch that winds over the Tejon Pass takes you out of the mind-numbing desert around Bakersfield and into Los Angeles. The Grapevine, as it's known, sits at the bottom of the north end of the steep grade.
Monotony in the market is always followed by volatility. Last chance to fill the tank before heading for the City of Angels (or the City of Lost Angels).
Big Drop
Bill surmised...
"This is called preparedness, something most traders had not considered on Black Monday October 19, 1987, when the major market indexes plummeted about -25% in a matter of hours."
Notice that the uptick rule changes have been put on the back burner. The HB&B does not want to change it so they can indeed collude to bring down prices fast if they see fit. As long as the uptick rule is not addressed the possiblity of a down 25% percent move in a few hours is more likely.
I realize many of you do not like the uptick rule and feel it is unnecessary but there must be a reason the HB&B's are all against it.
Morning soldiers!
Hup-to....We've got a big day ahead of us....
Gold is, as I predicted, snapping back faster than a lonely chorizo on little blue pills....
It's pretty obvious to all that the guy with the purple lips and the bald eagle are full of shale and are inflating the bejabbers out of the currency....
Plan for the day soldiers!!!!!....WAIT and buy Yamana/SLW AT THE LOW of the morning and ride that puppy like a bronc.
BTW Ya know that blonde guy fromn food network? He came and did a show at my favorite dive bar (Black Duck Cafe, right across the river from me) and now I can hardly get table, which they've recently started wiping off between customers:). Horrors. I even saw a guy in a suit there last night and his wife was wearing pearls. Damn.
OK Soldiers! Don't go in half-cocked, and don't shoot 'till you see the whites of their eyes (climactic downside volume:)...
BTW didja see Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes? This is one cowboy who really does look better bald. He actually looks kind of cool this way. When he was in high school? Pure myron.
Re: Spike in 2-Year T-Note yields
Good to see those turquoise splahes back on the screen ;)
cnq.to
In at $64
WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
moving on relatively low volume. Waiting to see support respected.
thanks bsi87
DRYS
This dog with fleas company looks like it may go up. I'm not buying it because it's floating garbage but it seems maybe like a trade.
Re: cnq.to
Why?
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
one has to have some patience, size position according to risk/portfolio size, etc. I might add to my position with a buy stop limit order above the 10 AM price.
TNH looks like it may have capitulated but there doesn't appear to be any options traded. I like to see some upward pull exerted by the options to take a position whether the RSI triple buy signal or capitulation signal.
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
Ok, so you pull up June (or July) options chart and observe action there first?
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
les,
The use of options strategies and tactics is a major tool in risk management. One of the best options traders in the business is Canada's Richard Croft, a person I brought into the brokerage industry, hiring him into a small firm where I was Exec VP at the time. That was 1983 and at the time I thought I had an expert working knowledge of options, and I knew most people didn't know much about them. I also recognized, in my recruiting interviews, that Richard Croft was a person who could teach me a lot more about options because he was clearly a true expert. So I hired him and to help his marketing, I introduced him to the Report On Business editors at the Globe & Mail, where he was retained with a front page byline. A couple years later he set up Croft Financial and took on clients. Just before the market crash in 1987, he bought puts heavily. The results were spectacular and Richard became a star. To this day, he generously gives up his time freely to help independent traders learn about options trading. Here is some material that might help:
http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/partners/free/globei...
Right now (and unless the S&P drops below 875), I don't advocate buying puts. The trend is still up, so you don't trade against trend. But, if the market is looking toppy, I will write bear call spreads. If on weakness, my analysis is that the support levels will hold, rather than buying calls, I'll write puts. If the market is lifting strongly, say S&P 950+, I'll buy calls with premium taken from more put writes. If the market were to break out solidly above say S&P 1020, I'd stop the put writes and put the ammunition into buying calls.
These are strategies and tactics for volatile markets. If, as and when the high volume and narrow markets return the broad market to a more stable state, I'll put less emphasis on options and begin to take positions in the underlying stocks -- but only in those stocks I consider core portfolio holdings. At that point, I have returned my thought processes to Total Returns and in particular to focusing on cash-on-cash returns.
But volatility requires one to be focused primarily on risk management.
Re Black Monday, the Dow 30 dropped -22.61 pct in 6.5 hours. The entire DJIA index plunged a full -30.0 percent from its Friday high to Monday's low.
Re: Spike in 2-Year T-Note yields
2nd
LOL ...Thanks for my morning laugh! Good to be back. Traveling can get old.
Open on the DJIA resembles the flight path of a N Korean missile
...
HEK
Volume and buying pressure continuing.
Re: HEK
Opposite for SLM. Range bound with reduced volume. Distribution occurred IMO.
SPNG
Out as of this am. In yamana and slw. plus bought some FAZ.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
BBY - 2009 estimates increased at Keybanc because of higher expected gross margins. Company is benefiting from the departure of Circuit City from the market. Buy rating and $45 price target.
DIS - estimates raised at Barclays through 2010. "Up" movie is performing above expectations at the box office. Overweight rating and $32 price target.
NUE - Downgraded at Morgan Stanley from Overweight to Equal-weight. Valuation call, as the sector has already rallied ahead of improving fundamentals.
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
I use max pain calculator.
http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php
And if the next 2 months expiration don't show an expiration price above current price, I don't usually take the trade. I like to have the options guys help me out.
Looks like my next buy stop limit order will be around 8.70
FYI
Saw this on a blog who subscribes to some sort of financial news letter ["STU"]. It pertains to the relationship between silver & gold.
"In the meantime, the Dollar appears to be solidly rallying, and bonds appear to be bottoming. A T-Bond rally is at hand. These moves might end the recent speculative bubblet in commodities, including oil. Most interesting, the "STU" watches the gold/silver ratio. When silver outperforms gold, it suggests a return of an appetite for risk, which we have seen across many markets since Mar6. When this flips and gold outperforms silver, it suggests a return to fear and an avoidance of risk. It is reversing, which signals the end of this wave [2] bubble echo rally is nearing; but the "STU" still expects a Final Surge before the end, later this summer."
Re: Herded through the Grapevine
Know it well, 2nd. Are we southbound at Grapevine, or northbound at Gorman?
Are we looking at the temp guage or testing the brakes?
long yamama
long yamama
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
RE:>And if the next 2 months expiration don't show an expiration price above current price, I don't usually take the trade. I like to have the options guys help me out.
Ok excuse me for pursuing but I would like to shore up my understanding of maxpain. Jun maxpain is 10 and July is 12.5. Calls far outweigh puts, at least in Jun. Is that to say the pros will see WNR over 10 by the end of the month? Or that they will keep it below 10 to make those calls worthless. What would be your take on that?
I've read the guide to maxpain on the website but want to hear other opinions of it.
One suggestion for site improvement
Bill said yesterday "Moreover, if there are improvements you think we can make, I have a team here who would be pleased to help make that happen."
Something that I certainly would like to see and I believe would be useful to the community is a "live" readout/display of what the Dow and S&P are doing along with some of the commodities that we speak so often about.. oil, gold, silver etc.
bill (in the Iowa sticks)
AMT/CCI/CRNT/FTWR
Mark - These are currently on my back haul watch list.
UNG
Adding @ 13.82 after that quick shake down. Just looking to lower my basis.
FYI [chart for my previous post]
Silver:Gold chart
http://tinyurl.com/meugwg
Re: AMT/CCI/CRNT/FTWR
CP- Thanks, I hadn't looked at CCI in a while, but will now. Thanks for the heads up.
Re: cnq.to
Re Why?
This stock has regular large enough intra day moves that scalping is a possibility. Normally I wait for the intraday pullback and sell into the close for example. The P of Oil is up this AM and I am leaving for the day. I thought it could gap up and stay up. Set my sell $1.10 higher. It all works til it doesn't of course. CNQ a good company, could be a Cara 100 but Bill chose Encana and SU over CNQ. They just signed a co venture deal with Qatar oil, which can't bode poorly for the company.
Re: Morning soldiers!
shark I saw the 60 minutes interview w/Bernanke and came away very impressed with him. He hails from a modest background and I genuinely believed he was p/o'd with the clown show known as AIG. He has taken many bullets since he was made Fed Chief but given the humongous pile of crap Greenspan left behind I am very surprised the boat didn't capsize and am glad he is on the bridge. Kudos to the bald dome, must be all the heat generating from his massive brain.
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
Max pain is the point where the maximum number of options (calls/puts) expire worthless.
For instance, SPY shows 83 for June expiration and 90 for July. Based on this and other measurements of risk/volitility, my guess is the SP500 trades down into mid June and up into July. August shows 92.
responding to bill's comment
I got out of my gold positions at 963 based on a feeling that the spot had gone up too far too fast at the 987 level and my belief that central bankers do manipulate the price, moderating its rise, in order, among other things, to keep interest rates down. I am still bullish but standing aside for now.
Not very scientific, I am afraid, but that is why I did what I did.
I continue to be bullish on the big board. It seems to be going up in steps - four weeks to break 8200, another 4 to break 8500 and now 2 weeks bumping up against 8800. I don't expect a big dramatic drop until I see a "greed spike."
The technicals may be weakening but, overall, I read them as being bullish for now. I still think this is a bear market rally.
Re: AMT/CCI/CRNT/FTWR
I used to really like CRNT...how have they been doing?
Re: One suggestion for site improvement
M R Ducks,
re "...I certainly would like to see and I believe would be useful to the community is a "live" readout/display of what the Dow and S&P are doing along with some of the commodities that we speak so often about.. oil, gold, silver etc"
Indeed. We are working on it.
Re: cnq.to
In this instance (probably many more) Bill is correct in choosing Encana and Suncor over CNQ. IMO CNQ is a $50 stock. SU has the bones, as does Encana.
Although CNQ shows a P/E of 7:1 approx, I don't believe it. Smells like smoke, looks like mirrors. But, who knows ?
Treasury 1:00pm Auction
The anticipated response for today's Treasury auction is on the positive side.
Re: Treasury 1:00pm Auction
Source?
Re: One suggestion for site improvement
Hi
Is it possible to set up a link on the individual posts in order to be able to print out an individual post in one step?
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
looked at competitors to TNH for clues. AGU and CF show option expirations below current price. Pulled TNH buy order.
Oil:NatGas ratio
This morning, on the futures charts the ratio was 18.9. I have never seen it this high before, although it apparently was at these levels in 1992.
Chart below (similar format to Bev's silver:gold ratio chart):
http://tinyurl.com/kwepw7
There is no reason this ratio can't go to 20, or 25, but the higher it goes the greater the potential for a long term rebound caused by oil price dropping, natural gas price rising, or a combination of the two. Remember, this can be a useful indictor for LONGER TERM trades.
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
Handy little trick to observe. Having said that then, you don't think that the pros will try to influence puts or calls, just put the options and the underlying in maxpain come opex?
Trying
ROCK for a breakout. EBS has done great since last here.
Black Monday
If we do have a drop of 25% similar to Black Monday, would that likely take PM's and Oil down as well or would they move in an opposite direction. I'm thinking of selling everything to mitigate risk, however I'm concerned about selling my PM's since I fear they may take off if we plunge down. Any thoughts? TIA
Max Pain
New to the max pain site given in earlier post today and would like feedback on the reliability of the numbers. SPY shows 83 for June, 90 for July, 92 for August, and 82 for Sep. If that's accurate then there will be an approx. 12% drop in the S&P this month. For those of you that follow max pain how reliable is it? Do you only focus on the current and following month numbers?
The qqqq numbers are relatively stable for those same months at 34, 35, 36, and 34. Wouldn't that indicate that it a total market selloff is not expected?
Just trying to learn.
Thanks in advance,
G
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
Back in those more relaxed investing days I would Buy & Hold in a modified form.
I bought blue chips like IBM, GM, Boeing and held until they were up 20% — then sold and shifted to another "safe" company repeating the process. I started doing this when long term was only six months.
Boeing was good for me because they were the biggest customer of a company where I had worked, Sundstrand Aviation (now a part of United Tech), and still kept as a major client. I knew when SNS slowed in their payment of my bill, BA had slowed also in paying them. I bought and sold both stocks in relation to my receipts.
I was driving to St.Louis on Friday when stocks began to fall and my stops were being triggered. By the end of the day I went from my initial regrets at placing the stops to thinking how lucky I was for taking precautions.
My biggest mistake was buying back in a little soon, but I still made substantial gains (far over 20%) and by year end owned all the same stocks at much lower cost basis.
I long for such relaxed days just scanning the WSJ over coffee.
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
yes, the pros will do everything possible to make the maximum number/prices of puts/calls to expire worthless. In fact, I'm counting on that to pull my WNR long position upward.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
Did computers exist back then Grym? What did you do for a trade?
edit: let me rephrase that before you verbally abuse me. Did the internet exist at that point with which you could trade with?
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
in WNR at 8.45
Re: Black Monday
Re: "If we do have a drop of 25% similar to Black Monday, would that likely take PM's and Oil down as well or would they move in an opposite direction."
It is unlikely such a single day drop would occur again; that's why the PPT was created in 1988 (President's Working Group on Financial Markets).
In a big drop, EVERYTHING gets sold off as over-margined traders have to sell whatever they have. Last year we had several examples of this as gold, oil, grains, and all equity industry groups sold off simultaneously.
I remember Black Monday well. Like most Boomers my age I didn't have much in the market (most Boomers were raising kids, paying mortgages), and I just rode it out. I was at an out-of-town convention that day and one of the delegates (about 50 years old) was on the pay phone to his broker almost every 15 minutes. Apparently he was highly leveraged and late in the afternoon just sat down and sobbed. He claimed he had been wiped out. (Bill C. puts his daily missives on risk management on this site for a reason.)
In 1987 most people I knew were in mutual funds. Some people just rode it out, others sold near the bottom, buying back later at higher prices.
One of my co-workers had gone to cash the week before, when it was clear the markets could be rolling over. On the Monday of the crash he raised more cash and on Tuesday went "all in". He did well, just like the people who recently bought the S&P below 700.
Chart of "Black Monday":
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USDJIND1987cr...
2nd...say it isn't so!
I hope you didn't stop posting your trades. I found them very informative.
Re: Black Monday
Nice description, Freedom57. To put it into context, here's two charts.
The first shows DOW since 1982.
You mentioned differences between today and 1987. Specifically PPT. I wouldn't put much faith in PPT. How helpful were they in OCT/NOV 2008? Rather what I would put faith in here is that this recent crash is merely a continuation of a correction from excess that has been underway since 2000. The 1987 crash came at the peak of a wild ride up which, as the chart shows, began in 1982. So the question, I guess, is are we at sensible levels yet with more chance of an upside or more chance of a downside?
The second chart attached tries to address that question (S&P 500 since 1871, this time inflation adjusted). As you see, we're at a sensible level but strenuous effort is needed to prevent an overshoot.
Times of London on AIG
“Once people who push boundaries understand that the police don’t want to issue tickets,” says Charles Ortel, “they start pushing. ‘If you’re not going to arrest me for going 10 miles over the speed limit, well, I’ll try 20. If I can do 20, I’ll try 30. And then I’ll try flying a plane on a road.’”
From a thoughtful piece on AIG:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/ind...
Reminder of how, under Greenberg, AIG already had its wrist slapped for fraudulent accounting.
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
bsi87
"AGU and CF show option expirations below current price"
Those may be skewed as AGU has open offer to buy CF. Arbitrage play.
Perhaps, POT, MOS or IPI may be more relevant, accurate. (I haven't checked). TRA has open offer from CF (skewing things more), although TRA owns majority of TNH if memory serves me right.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
you called your broker or mutual fund before 4PM and put your trade in - if you could. Vanguard and others were swamped, brokers didn't answer their lines, etc.
I sold out on Friday afternoon, just before the selling crescendo on Monday morning which was around noon. There were no bids.
There's a couple good books on Black Friday - can't remember the names but I'm sure u can find them on Amazon. The big thing I recall is Greenspan was the new Fed chair, appointed in summer '87. The DA started hiking rates and, IMO, caused the crash. Then opened the taps like a firehose. After reading the book and looking at several financial crisises, I became convinced that Greenspan would go down as one of the worst Fed chairs this country ever had. Worse than Arthur Burns (Johnson's Fed chair) or Bill Miller (Nixon's). When "Maestro" came out, I wanted to heave.
Re: Treasury 1:00pm Auction
Source? - This was John Jansen's comment from this morning.
"Look for a strong auction today and a steeper yield curve tomorroww and Thursday."
http://acrossthecurve.com/
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
re: TNH
could be. I wanted a plunge at the open in TNH to take on the risk. Since it didn't, I'm putting it aside.
Looking at increasing positions in WNR and perhaps LG>
TBT taking off
But gold and the miners lagging behind. GG especially is not tracking even POG anymore.
After a good premarket, gold has not seen much support today, especially given the dollar has moved down even further than where it was premarket.
Mackinaw, charts and gold
More than anything, this chart scares me. The parallels are now.
Will history repeat, say another Black Monday or Black Friday ?
Scotia I*Trade now has a $3 barrier to leveraging shares, watch OPC:T when it goes under $3 or any leveraged share. Likely most houses are the same, was it a rule? ($3)
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
BSI87 - If you sold out at the perfect time before Black Monday I'm curious as to how you are currently positioned. I'm inclined to take everything off the table and not be greedy for fear of a big drop, however I'm stuck because I feel the trend is up. TIA and for all your posts
Re: Morning soldiers!
Hey, nothing aginst bald guys. I'd probably shave my head if it weren't so fugly, shaped like an inverted footbal, albeit one stuffed with far too much air.
Still hanging in in yamana after a stopout/re-purchase. Just trying to make me sheckles back.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
"The big thing I recall is Greenspan was the new Fed chair, appointed in summer '87. The DA started hiking rates and, IMO, caused the crash. Then opened the taps like a firehose."
That's the disturbance which caused undesired response to a system in steady-state. I don't remember his justification for hiking rates, he must've over-reacted, didn't think things through, or had some agenda...
Re: Black Monday
Nice charts, Mackinaw. I go to dshort.com periodically to see how the "4 bad bears" are doing.
Re: "I wouldn't put much faith in PPT. How helpful were they in OCT/NOV 2008?"
I don't know if we'll ever know the answer to that question. However, there was no 25% single day drop. In Bernanke's latest testimony to Congress he was questioned about the PPT, how often it met, when was the last meeting, did it have any recent market interventions, etc. My recollection of Bernanke's responses was that there was such a group, he was unsure when they met last, never answered anything on market intervention, was unsure if anyone took minutes at PPT meetings, and was equally unsure of whether any such possible minutes could be made available to Congress. I was not impressed.
Further to BSI87's post above, as related to me, some of my co-workers were a little perturbed by the market drop the week before, but most were buy-and-holders ("the market always comes back"). However, first thing Monday morning a few phoned brokers to sell at least some holdings, and as the day went on more and more people decided to sell. Since mutual funds are bought/sold at the end of the day most people were sold out near the ultimate bottom.
And the dollar index
Falls below 80. Git ready to buy some gold folks.
Uhoh...Old purple lips is gettin' ready to flap 'em...
...looks like a damn Smurf!
Re: TBT taking off
Looks like silver's got more support today than gold Dave. Don't know what that means, other than parroting what Bev? said concerning appetite for risk.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
nope, I didn't sell off at the perfect time. I sold and then I sat because I was afraid to get back in.
I look at paired trades, BND, GSP, and VT, to see what is overbought/oversold. Right now it sez that one should be long bonds as hard as that is to accept. Alternately one could say it's not time to buy commodities or equities which confirms what Bill said. Sometimes you have to just sit and wait for a trade to develop.
Re: And the dollar index
I been watching the Dollar Index too, its dropped 81 to 80 today, Gold not moved as I was expecting.Still holding AUY ,traded in and out RGLD ok .Auy moving a bit now.
scratching my head
USD index down,
Gold up a bit,
miners down.
something smells fishy.
im thinking too many gold bugs are hoping for a spectacular failure during the bond auction to lead to a move up in gold. i think anything short of such a failure will be spun to indicate things were "not as bad as anticipated", which will make gold fall again and the USD either hold fast or rise.
miners are the key, the truth is in their action at the moment. if they catch a bid, then perhaps things are as bad as they seem. but the party for gold does not get started until the large caps show up at the party. period. no volume is like not spiking the punch.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
Its the getting back in thing that is tough. I sold out of all my equities back in July 2007. I have not exceeded 30% equities since and this has hurt my returns this year.
Re: Mackinaw, charts and gold
Looks to me like various advisor's (including Bill) suggestions for US investors to keep %5-10% of their portfolio in Gold-related stuff at all times was a big winner over that period. The key, however, to manage that would have been to rebalance periodically to maintain it at that level. The problem, of course, for investors who had/have no gold either in 1979, or today, is that initiating a 5%-10% account at those times, without employing some wickedly complex risk-management for it, could lead, like it did 1980-2000, to a nasty 70% draw-down lasting years. I'm not saying we're at a peak like in 1979, but I can clearly see that risks are a tad higher than they were in 2000.
Re: scratching my head
I'm going to guess the real fireworks come tomorrow and Thursday. The long end of the curve is (I'm guessing) the most vulnerable to our current issues. I don't expect any explosion from the 5 year auction.
SQNM
I'm not saying buy it here but it's making a good move. Investors should get ready to buy, traders should be looking for long entries.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
We're all in the same boat, Pillzilla. Try and find a way to do it emotionlessly.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
SPX is up all of 4% since Dec 31.
Looks like SPX average in July 2007 was 1475.
Looks to me that you have done well.
Congrats.
Re: SQNM
Careful with such chasing on intraday basis... we were on it almost 10% lower
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
"Try and find a way to do it emotionlessly."
And if all else fails, try a liberal application of body english. What could go wrong?
1987 - shaken but even ...
I had small positions in cheap stocks recommended by Al Frank's Prudent Spectulator. (Anybody else remember Al?) They all went to near zero.
BUT, I also had OEX index puts, which expired Saturday (after black friday) up 27 times! So,I came out shaken but even.
Per Bill's suggestion, I'll be looking to pick up puts again, if and when the index rolls over. In 1987, the S&P peaked in August, I believe, but crashed in October. I must have bought my OEX puts in Sept.
FWIW
SQNM, FYI:
Tuesday, June 09, 2009 1:39:39 PM
Sequenom, Inc Strength attributed to chatter that SQNM may be close to resolving issues of mishandlded data for SEQureDx Trisomy 21 Test
- reminder: on 4/29 the stock fell over 75% on a report it would delay the launch of its SEQureDx Down syndrome test, due to the discovery by company officials of employee 'mishandling' of R&D test data and results.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
"try a liberal application of body english" - lol
CP, what do you think of the wee volume spike in DV yesterday? :)
http://tinyurl.com/lja6zo
SQNM
took a nice ride
SQNM
That wa a boooodacious move folks...VAD did your market warriors ride this one to victory? Don't tell me today's a boring day!
Re: SQNM
We took it at 3.66
Re: SQNM
Bought in yesterday for some odd reason... something told me to. Like the action today.
Was the TARP a Ruse?
By Barry Ritholtz - June 9th, 2009, 10:00AM
"The rush to repay TARP monies gives us another opportunity to consider why the hell this absurd financial giveaway ever happened in the first place. A close inspection suggests some dishonesty on the part of the prior Treasury Secretary.
From its inception, the TARP never made much sense. Forcing banks that did not need money to accept government bailouts was simply irrational.
The basis for the TARP went through several differing rationales — it began as a recapitalization of the major money center banks, then came the explanation of removing toxic assets, then it moved to freeing up credit and making banks lend again.
Its was $700 billion dollar pile of money in search of a justification for its existence.
Most people still look at TARP the wrong way. When trying to discern what the true basis of it was, we eliminated what made no sense whatsoever, and what was left were a few strange ideas. When you eliminate the impossible, what’s left, no matter how improbable, becomes the best explanation.
What was that explanation? In Bailout Nation, we discuss the possibility that The TARP was all a giant ruse, a Hank Paulson engineered scam to cover up the simple fact that CitiGroup (C) was teetering on the brink of implosion. A loan just to Citi alone would have been problematic, went this line of brilliant reasoning, so instead, we gave money to all the big banks."
http://tinyurl.com/mc6o2x
What a meaningless day
Flat trading, low volume - just waiting for the PPT to come and the indexes for a ride at the end of day. Thought there might be more excitement over the TARP payment, but sadly, no. Drama is good - I'm guessing the only drama today will be in the last 30 mins.
YOU ARE THE MAN!
I knew you'd be all over this one. What a HECK of a nice move.
Vad
Although I got in much later than yourself, I still made damn good money. I HAD been watching this for weeks but got bored waiting.....Aint that market life? Now of course I'd LOVE to see eveyone bail:)
MON
The other day I indicated I was short the June 80 put and long the June 75 put. I have bought back the June 80 put today since there is not a lot of profit left in the trade. Even though they will both likely expire worthless, I figure why keep the risk for the last few hundred dollars.
I have also taken small losses being short JPM puts after their last equity raise. Thinking of writing KGC puts, but I am not there yet.
I am trying to get up to speed again on using options, with a little practice.
Good luck all.
Re: What a meaningless day
worse, the "part-fill syndrome, looking for bargains in all the wrong places.
Re: Vad
That's what scanners are for... you don't sit and watch 1863 stocks, that's a surefire way to miss 1860 of them. Instead you wait for a scanner to spit out those that match your criteria... Of course you train it first to hunt for what you want to see
Re: Vad
That's a fine idea. Will work on it.
Bomb gone off in Pakistan.
Not many details yet, and so far the financial markets are not reacting dramatically to the news, but there's been a major blast at a Pakistani hotel popular with Western travellers.
still scratching...
gold at $954,
TLT moving lower,
USD bouncing up around 80
gold shares still low,
not liking this, but not so much that im going to sell a bit.
while im on the topic, i am a big fan of Jim Sinclair but i have to admit, i have no idea why Dan Norcini posts charts every day. I dont doubt he is talented and is given due praise from Jim himself but when i take an objective view of his work, it offers absolutely nothing in terms of insight. each day its just a chart saying "the bulls need the POG over $920 to regain control, or the bullion banks will have their control below" or non-sequiters that give no indication of his thoughts like "if the POG can hold above this level, we may see some bullish action in the not too distant future, but its anyone's guess at this point"...
for real, why do people praise his work on this site?
anyways,
im starting to get nervous as it seems like to me, everyone is bullish on PM's, and everyone is expecting all this "money printing" to lead to something that so far has not materialized. as ive said too many times before, its not a gold bull market if the miners dont participate. there is something fundamentally disconnected if the relationship b/w the miners and the POG doesnt return to some sense of sanity. Barrick at $35 when it was about %30 higher last time gold was $955?
today's action is the total opposite to yesterday's action. mabey i should stop watching the market day to day!!!
FCX
Is up nicely, almost 3% @ 1430. How does it play out don't know, but can't be bad for Gold or Copper.
Re: WNR shot like a rocket before dropping
I like that option max pain pulling philosophy and am in WNR myself at slightly higher price of 8.57. With stop loss and price target plan in place too.
Re: scratching my head
Options expire next week and we are in the "foot hills" of the fun.
2010 equity leaps expire Monday 6/15
SPL converts to SPX Tuesday 6/16
VIX, VXN, RVX expiration Wednesday 6/17
A.M. settled index options cease trading Thursday 6/18
More equity and index options expire Friday 6/19 and Saturday 6/20
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
Re: DV
Mackinaw - If I owned it I think I'd keep it, it could easily run a few more dollars... or pull back before going those last few miles. If the market doesn't jag south I see over $50.
Re: still scratching...
The dollar really got hit, and gold moved only a little bit. That doesn't feel like a bullish sign to me. Imagine what would happen to gold if the dollar went up? Volume is quite modest today too. Lower highs, and lower lows.
Perhaps people are saving their money for tomorrow?
Interesting cup pattern on SLV. Perhaps poised for a breakout?
Re: still scratching...
gold - We'll probably have to wait for some bruises to heal before the correlation with $US resumes?
Re: 2nd...say it isn't so!/ Doing nothing, no lie ;)
Not a single trade today.
Re: One suggestion for site improvement
Newbee,
What exactly are you looking for? Right now if you hit reply you get a page that has just that one comment (with a reply form) so that wouldn't be too bad for printing. Or are you looking for a single click, print-just-this-comment solution?
Jeff
Re: One suggestion for site improvement
single click, I guess - just to print out the txt of the post.
Now that you mention it, I guess I could print out the page after hitting reply. If you could do the single click, maybe it would be in more of a document format without all the background color to save ink/toner. Just a thought.
thanks
Radiation exposure... Amgen has Neupogen
for white blood cells.......
Re: One suggestion for site improvement
"If you could do the single click, maybe it would be in more of a document format without all the background color to save ink/toner."
I usually copy/paste into Word before printing for just that reason (to eliminate the color).
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
LOL!
Well, I do tell people I was in business since 24B.C. (Before Computers)
Les, The first computer I bought was for my son's college graduation in 1984 — an original 128k Mac, no HD, floppy disc only, with a dot matrix printer. They had a half price deal for grads at only $3500 for the package. I never thought I would have any use for a computer...then graphics went totally digital...I've bought 11 more since. Still have four.
No internet then and I didn't really start to use the web until about the mid 1990s.
Before computers: When I wanted to make a trade I phoned my broker, got a quote and placed an order. A few days later I got a confirmation slip with the requirement I pay in — (I think it was) three days. I soon opened a margin account where I usually carried a cash balance, but often borrowed against my portfolio.
I received the actual certificates later which I kept in a bank lock box. As someone mentioned last week they were like works of art with exquisite engraving. Over the years I designed a few for clients, buy the engraving was up to specialists.
I must admit to their advantages, but to me computer art as compared to drawing or painting by hand is what Playboy magazine is to real sex :-)
;-(
http://tinyurl.com/mnnzln
Re: One suggestion for site improvement
Agreed....
Platinum Palladium bidding up - PAL worth a look
"June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum gained for the first time in three sessions in New York on speculation that supplies from South Africa, the world’s largest producer of the metal, may be threatened by labor disputes. Palladium futures also rose.
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the world’s second-largest producer, faces a demand for a 20 percent wage increase for about half its approximately 30,000 South African workers. South Africa accounted for about 76 percent of world’s platinum output last year, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. The metal gained 33 percent in 2007, partly because of South African mine strikes.
“Such a sharp increase could raise production costs, but in the more immediate term, could affect production if strikes materialize, as they did in 2007,” Nicholas Snowdon, a Barclays Capital analyst in London, said today in a report.
Platinum futures for July delivery gained $11.80, or 0.9 percent, to $1,255.80 an ounce at 1:07 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The most-active contract slid 3.8 percent in the previous two sessions as the dollar strengthened.
Palladium futures for September delivery advanced $4.20, or 1.7 percent, to $256.20 an ounce on the Nymex. Before today, the metal rose 34 percent this year, while platinum climbed 32 percent.
Platinum and palladium gained as the dollar weakened, enhancing the appeal of the metals as alternative assets. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, fell as much as 1.2 percent."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&si...
SWC is toppy. PAL might be worth a go. Don't know how far this strike action can take prices. With present prices a 2.53 and resistance clearly observed at around 2.80, its got some way to go. The strike could give impetus to breaking through resistance.
Re: Bill, how did you deal with Black Monday?
What's a magazine?
For that matter, what's sex? ;)
Re: ;-(
Maxpain for UNG in Jun is 15. Might bounce to the upper trend line before opex.
NIGHT ALL!
Re: cnq.to
Thanks-that info would have made your first post useful.
Re: Platinum Palladium bidding up - PAL worth a look
There is a Platinum ETN, trades under symbol PGM.
NOT very liquid, average shares traded @34,000.
Believe they use future contracts and do not hold the commodity.
Ipath also has a nat gas ETN, GAZ, also based on future contract. Avg. 20 day volume per web site is @ 132,000, although trading today @ 372,000.
NO Positon in either. Not a recommendation. Please DOYDD.
Re: ;-(
I think UNG is going to test the 12.69 because after it broke out of its down channel it broke on about 17M share and retested the channel with 24M so I think it will go back into the channel to a logical point is a retest of at least the 13.29 and maybe the 12.69. That's my safe trade thinking certainly has limited downside. Does anyone follow UHN? Thinking about looking for an entry around 23 but has very light volumn.
SQNM
In what may be the understatement of the day, I wish i'd held onto a few hundred shares, at least into the close. Live and learn. That chart is a case study in how it's hard figuring out when/if a move will peter out intraday.
Hope at least now it begins a nice tradeable uptrend.
Don't worry about the gold action today as someone is.....Mass psychology dictates that what is studiously ignored today may be tomoorows next big thing. It's kind of perverse, but that's how it works.
Ya know how I have a buddy who helps run big money? He called today and thanked me for "getting him into" the Sequenom at 3.20 the other day.
I can almost taste the steak dinner at Lugers:)
For those who store it themselves
Precious metals thief sentenced for stealing $2 million worth of gold, silver, some jewelry . . . from a Bend, OR home.
Investigation led to three states (Hawaii was one, Kaimu)
http://kohd.com/page/130395
Re: AMT/CCI/CRNT/FTWR
teamonfuego - "I used to really like CRNT"
I believe they are growing, obtaining a fair number of strategic contracts. The latest announcement outlined purchase orders from TATA.
Re: SQNM
had my finger on the sell button earlier today - then took it off and went for a walk. Came back at 4pm and was pleasantly surprised.
not too happy with my YRI and FAZ however... zzz
Re: SQNM
( I hadn't known he'd bought it, I was just running my yap about how it could get good.)
Dude, sometimes walking away from the computer is the best goshdarn thing you can do for your wallet. I salute you.
J.L...Not the thinking, the sitting....
candlesticks
Three successive dojis, or near doji, on the DOW are supposed to signal a reversal.
Tomorrow may be your best chance to buy PAL (right after I do:)
I found this news story on Kitco:
(AMM) North American Palladium eyes January mine restart
NEW YORK 09 June 2009 18:18
North American Palladium Ltd. will reopen its Lac des Iles Mine in Thunder Bay, Ontario, when palladium reaches a sustainable price of about $300 per troy ounce a once-elusive goal that is now almost within reach, the company said.
Palladium averaged $191.82 per troy ounce in October, just one-third of the metal's 2008 peak, when the Toronto-based precious metals producer placed its then-sole mine on care and maintenance. Prices have since seen the first signs of recovery, and September-delivery palladium closed Monday at $252 per troy ounce, the third-highest close this year, due to safe-haven buying, Chinese demand and wider gains in metal prices.
This will be the catalyst to drive this BABY higher, and I don't even have a position.........
And yes I am plenty angry at myself for not getting out of sequenom (so far) what I should have. If you didn't make a thousand bucks AT LEAST on that trade you 'aint doing it right. And I didn't do it right.
Re: DV
Mackinaw - On second thought, DV might be headed for a retest of $45, (max-pain). This is op-ex week, isn't it?
VADYM
Given your experience, what do you imagine SQNM MAY do tomorrow?
Anything can happen, but in your experience with Nasdaq stocks do these things often continue rising or do they usually sell off after a day like today?
Back To The Future?
1987....
Today I have seen many write ups about the 1987 crash on various web sites, beginning right here at the Cara Community. Kind of errrrrrrie!
To those here who know of Atilla at xTrends he wrote this tonight. Go Figure!
~~~~~~~~
US Financial Markets may crash by September 2009
Calling the crash of 2008 and covering below SPX=670 were not the end of this story. Since SPX=850, I was a bear despite I covered several times to re-short.
Most of the readers are aware of the fact that I was expecting the next possible intermediate term sell off to be a 2-sigma move, unlike what we had in Oct 2008. If the overall probability for a 4-sigma move in stock market is less than 1%, having two of them in a year may be less than Boltzmann's number.
However things are changed. It is becoming more clear that the coming sell off may be another unique move that may stretch your oscillators towards unmapped regions. There are unique developments under the current monetary situation and these conditions may be leading the financial markets towards another disaster of epic proportions. There are now significant similarities with those conditions we saw before the crash of 1987 and the only differences we have now are for the worse.
Due to the depth of the situation, this post will take time to finish , probably in several different pages. I will post the first set of charts and explanations by midnight.
~~~~~
I personally believe when the first leg of the corrective sell off occurs, it will be fast and deep with no time to get in. Like 1987!
Just my thoughts...
Re: VADYM
It's unfair question as long as no "ifs" are mentioned. All forecasts are conditional; they are all just scenarios. Let's break it down:
IF today's move was caused by pure technicals (mass emotions triggered by certain price moves, break of long term resistance in this case), THEN most likely this move will have continuation tomorrow.
IF today's move had some hype under it by some source, THEN continuation will depends on how credible the source is and whether others join in hype. I'd say 51/49 in favor of up.
IF today's move was based on some news leak, assumptions or expectations, THEN continuation will depend on whether they get confirmed, or denied, or discussed in this or that light on this or that media channel. Total toss-up.
Finally pure chart wise, as I said in my room today, there is nothing but air above it for quite a while. I called it easy double at 3.60, and jeez, it's at 5.50 the same day?? That shows you just how willing longs were and how easily shorts gave up. All things being equal and providing stock continues trading on its own, without sudden news - path of the least resistance is still up.
Re: VADYM
Thank you very much.
(BTW folks I altered my post while Vad was still answering it thereby leading to his mention of "unfair question" which was something I had said and removed from my post.)
Re: VADYM
Next time I'll know better and answer in a few hours, after making sure you made all the alterations (Grin)
Re: VADYM
Yeah, don't hesitate to give me intra-day updates as well. I promise I won't tell anyone:)
Seriously...Thank you.
VIX & next week...
Today the VIX was down more than 5% while SPX was up less than 0.5%
[from the Sentimen Trader]
- Over the past decade, on days the VIX dropped 5% or more, the S&P 500 rallied +1.6% on average.
- There have been 6 days since October 2007 when the VIX was down 5% or more but the S&P 500 was up less than +0.5%. Over the next week, the S&P was negative every time, averaging -3.6%. The most the S&P was able to rally during the weeks averaged +1.2% while the average drawdown (worst loss) was 5.7%.
- Prior to October 2007, this kind of setup had very little, if any, edge either way, which makes the recent instances more of an outlier than anything.
Yamana News
YAMANA GOLD INC .
today announced that it has signed an agreement with Aura Minerals Inc .
under which Aura would purchase three of Yamana's non-core operating mines - the San Andres Mine in Honduras and the Sao Francisco and Sao Vicente Mines each located in Brazil. Aura will acquire the San Andres Mine in Honduras and the Sao Francisco and Sao Vicente Mines in Brazil for an aggregate initial purchase price of approximately US$200 million, including approximately US$90 million in cash, US$70 million in deferred cash payments and US$40 million in Aura common shares .
The transaction will close in two parts in order to accommodate jurisdiction-related regulatory requirements .
The first part which relates to the sale of San Andres is expected to close on July 23, 2009 at which time Yamana will receive total consideration of approximately US$74 million .
The second part which relates to the sale of Sao Francisco and Sao Vicente is expected to close by year-end. In addition, Yamana will retain a contingent cash flow-based royalty on San Andres, Sao Francisco and Sao Vicente that will provide additional payments to Yamana of up to US$40 million, which it fully expects to receive with payments beginning as early as 2012. This transaction streamlines our asset portfolio, further focusing on our core assets, on our core operating jurisdictions and on advancing our high-returning development stage projects, effectively positioning Yamana for the next wave of growth, commented Peter Marrone, Yamana's chairman and chief executive officer .
The sale of these non-core mines is expected to result in lower cash operating costs, higher margins and increased reserves, production and cash flow per mine .
We believe we will derive significantly more value from our share position than had these mines remained directly held by our company, particularly in a higher gold price environment .
We are confident in the ability of Aura's management to manage these mines, allowing us to maintain an interest through our share position and royalty. The Aura common shares to be issued to Yamana as partial consideration for the purchase of the three mines will be issued at C$0.40 per share, and Yamana will maintain a meaningful share holding in Aura .
The San Andres, Sao Francisco and Sao Vicente Mines are three solid operations and Yamana is confident that under the capable management by Aura, these operations will deliver considerable further value for all shareholders. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions including definitive documentation and completion of a financing by Aura to fund the cash portion of the purchase price. National Bank Financial is acting as the financial advisor to Yamana with respect to this transaction .
Re: VIX & next week...
VIX: VXV ratio (.92). Once it drops below .90 we may see a major market reversal imminently?
george carlin
There was a youtube clip from the late George Carlin I used enjoy watching occasionally. It was funny, but true, and described the existence of "the club" (of which you and I are not a part of). "They want it all folks" Interestingly, I searched for it recently and it has vanished supposedly due to "copyright claims".
So in honor of the late comedian (and freedom of speech), here is a transcript. While I don't believe in censorship, I took the liberty of editing the profanity out of respect for the community.
"There's a reason that education sucks, and it’s the same reason it will never ever ever be fixed. It’s never going to get any better, don’t look for it. Be happy with what you’ve got. Because the owners of this country don’t want that. I’m talking about the real owners now, the big, wealthy, business interests that control all things and make the big decisions.
Forget the politicians, they’re irrelevant.
Politicians are put there to give you that idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. You have no choice. You have owners. They own you. They own everything. They own all the important land, they own and control the corporations, and they’ve long since bought and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the State Houses, and the City Halls. They’ve got the judges in their back pockets. And they own all the big media companies so they control just about all the news and information you get to hear.
They’ve got you by the b&lls.
They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want; they want more for themselves and less for everybody else. But I’ll tell you what they don’t want—they don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well informed, well educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest. You know something, they don’t want people that are smart enough to sit around their kitchen table and figure out how badly they’re getting f%^&ed by a system that threw them overboard 30 f^%$ing years ago.
They don’t want that, you know what they want?
They want obedient workers, obedient workers. People who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork and just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly sh*&tier jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime and the vanishing pension that disappears the minute you go to collect it.
And now they’re coming for your social security money.
They want your f&^%ing retirement money; they want it back so they can give it to their criminal friends on Wall Street. And you know something? They’ll get it. They’ll get it all from you sooner or later because they own this f&^%ing place. It’s a big club and you ain’t in it! You and I are not in the Big Club. By the way, it’s the same big club they use to beat you in the head with all day long when they tell you what to believe. All day long beating you over the head with their media telling you what to believe, what to believe, what to think and what to buy.
The table is tilted folks, the game is rigged.
Nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care. Good honest hard working people, white collar, blue collar, it doesn’t matter what color shirt you have on. Good honest hard working people continue, these are people of modest means, continue to elect these rich co&^%%%$rs who don’t give a f&^% about them. They don’t give a f&^% about you. They don’t give a f&^% about…give a f&^% about you! They don’t care about you at all, at all, at all.
And nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care.
That’s what the owners count on, the fact that Americans are and will probably remain willfully ignorant of the big red, white, and blue d*&^ that’s being jammed up their a&^%%%^% everyday. Because the owners of this country know the truth, it’s called the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.
KC
Another 100,000 share insider buy of NGD
That's the second one in the past few weeks. Small buys don't impress me much, but when they get larger like that, I consider it that they are more likely based on a profit motive than just trying to send "messages" to the market. I like people that put their money where their mouth is.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inve...
Might want to keep eyes on Capstone tomorrow ( Wed )
ah news... perhaps the large short interest will keep it low for awhile tomorrow ( maybe till around noon... maybe not ) $ 1.00 could be in the cards...
Any bets on $100 a barrel before Xmas?
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTR...
Re: Any bets on $100 a barrel before Xmas?
Nemo- Only if you'll take the under.
BTW, an interesting note from 2 clients I spent time with today. NO ONE was talking about the recession. All the talk was about crude, interest rates, and our repeated failure to take advantage of that brief window we had to make up some ground when crude was $30. I should have a better report in a couple of weeks, both are traveling for Board meetings the next two weeks.
Re: george carlin
Nice work Knifecatcher! The classic court jester....speaking truth to everybody.
I walked in a minute ago to the last of Nights in White Satin...to hear it in plain English.
"Cold hearted orb that rules the night
removes the colours from our sight
red is grey and yellow white
yet we decide which is right
and which is an illusion."
Re: Any bets on $100 a barrel before Xmas?
I understand Bill believes there will be a long bottoming process where oil will retrace a bit in this range. Of course, we have to 1) depend on OPEC definition of what is an acceptable price for oil(which seems to be creeping up) and their willingness to open the spigots, and 2) the growth of Asian (read: Chinese) oil consumption...oh, and 3) the sanctity of the..cough...US Peso. One other question: At what point does diminishing available resources, and the growth of Asian consumption have more of an impact than the vacillations of the US numbers released on Wednesdays?
Asia
Wow, they're having a party over in Asia today!
Re: Asia
That must have been some gooood sake at lunch.
Re: Asia
Sake to ya'! Kampai!
Re: Any bets on $100 a barrel before Xmas?
Nemo- Good points. I need to keep it a little more simple....Speculation has returned to the energy futures.
It's also interesting to see NG moving up at a faster rate right now than crude.
Dave- Higher lows and lowers highs...isn't that a positive on huge volume? Seriously, still learning the tech's.
Re: Asia
See you at the open my friend...
Bank Index: The Single Most Important Index. - Zero Hedge
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2009/06...
Re: george carlin
Thanks knifecatcher.
I miss George, brilliant guy. Do you have any idea how old he was when he put this together. I have come to pretty much the same conclusions, but it has taken far too long I'm sorry to say.
There were times I read something which gave me inklings (Brave New
World, 1984), but the day to day pressures of running business, marriage and a couple of kids, social events, etc. managed to keep my attention.
Whether the above list or American Idol, Dancing with the stars, or our favorite teams — The Club can count on the distractions of life to give them pretty much a free hand.
I'm pretty sure I've read all his books. Most I passed on to friends, but I still have, "Braindroppings" — He would have made a great school teacher (with your edits), but in a sense I guess his "teachings" were better done his way.
Thanks again.
Re: Might want to keep eyes on Capstone tomorrow ( Wed )
crossed 4 mil. volume... good sign
Re: george carlin
KC,
Here is the carlin clip.More truth out of his mouth than many politicans
and HB+B leadership.We need many more like him.
Good day
CE
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