[8:14am ET] Today, Washington will be focused on healthcare reform legislation. I have Aetna (AET) as a new Buy Alert @ $26.42. I will be watching the Senate Finance Committee vote and prelim discussion.
Credit Suisse analyst G. Nersessian had the following thoughts on reform and the individual mandate:
• In the last few days, our conversations with clients regarding healthcare reform have repeatedly revolved around the weakened penalty for opting out of insurance coverage.
• While it's bad policy, in our opinion, the weakened penalty is not the threat to the managed care industry that many have perceived. Specifically, there are a number of factors which we believe will mitigate the threat of adverse selection in the exchange pool including the breadth and generosity of the subsidies, risk-adjusted payments and, most importantly, the ability to underwrite the policies to the anticipated cost of coverage.
• In this regard, we would characterize the soft penalty in and of itself as a lower ranking concern with respect to healthcare reform. Much more important in our opinion are the timing and magnitude of the proposed taxes/assessments, the structure of Medicare Advantage payment cuts and any changes to the legislation that would limit the managed care organizations' ability to set rates in the exchange.
This is a very complex issue, meaning that politics is playing at its best. I am watching to see how the market will react.
Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.
Other Stocks of possible interest:
C - Deutsche Securities Initiates Coverage with a Buy. PT =
$5.50
GS - Meredith Whitney cut her rating on the investment bank from Buy to Neutral.
Bad public policy?
So says the analyst. But for who? The insurance lobby has corrupted this process irreparably. Now they're crying foul when their license to print money for themselves has been watered down.
Boo hoo. Here's hoping their bought-and-paid-for members of congress grow some character and push back fast and hard against them. A start would be reintroducing the public option as non-negotiable.
With all due respect, I wouldn't buy AET on principle alone. I know we only trade price, but sometimes you have to take a stand. Even if it is only symbolic.
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Released on 10/13/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk10/10, 2009
Prior
Store Sales - W/W change 0.3 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 1.0 %
Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 0.6 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 1.0 %
Highlights
Chain store sales rose 0.6 percent in the Oct. 10 week for an in-trend year-on-year rate of plus 1.0 percent, according to ICSC-Goldman's weekly tally. Redbook's weekly tally will be posted later this morning at 8:55 a.m. ET. Tomorrow the Commerce Department will post monthly retail sales for September in a major report for the financial market.
Redbook
Released on 10/13/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk10/10, 2009
Prior
Store Sales Y/Y change -1.9 %
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 0.6 %
Cara 100 Update
JNPR - Upgraded to Buy @ Jefferies & Co. PT Raised from $21 to $34
Shippers
I posted it here yesterday that I think shippers should be looked at. I went long OCNF at $1.25ish and PRGN at $4.49. The Baltic Dry Index is clearly in an uptrend (ask yourself, would you buy this index if it was a stock - look at the 1 year chart:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDI...)
Well, DRYS was upgraded to Buy at Lazard this morning. It seems the analysts are seeing what I'm seeing...an industry clearly on the move up.
biotech companies
Bill,
In the WIR, you mentioned that you have high hope on solar and biotech.
For solar companies, except FLSR and ESLR, a majority of the companies i came across are all Chinese companies. As i know, China might now be just a workshop for the world, but once it pick up it's high tech manufacturing, it might just be like Korea, dominating the industry.
As for bio tech, I believe this is something more challenging to the world. Do you have any companies that you think worth taking a deeper look? please shed some lights and give us a head up if you have the time.
Thanks for all you have done for all of us here...
gc
Cara 100 Update
Coverage Resumed:
PTR - Deutsche Resumes Coverage with a Hold
PT Raised:
BDK - from $35 to $37 @ Longbow. Sell
CSCO - from $27 to $30 @ RBC. Outperform
SLW & GG Reports
I don't see the new SLW & GG reports posted - wouldn't they be posted at this location?
http://caratrading.com/ctab-publications
thanks in advance,
Veritas
Honeywell Wind Turbine
thought this was very interesting...
Noise, bulk and inconsistent winds have hampered the adoption of wind turbines by homeowners, but a new design could change that. Imad Mahawili, a chemical engineer and long-time wind-energy consultant, has reimagined the technology to take advantage of even light breezes.
In a typical wind turbine, air moves the blades, which turn gears to spin a generator and produce a current. Those mechanical linkages siphon off a good deal of wind energy before it can be converted to electricity. Mahawili’s system eliminates the separate generator, and therefore the gearing. The blades are tipped with magnets and enclosed in a wheel that contains coiled copper—in other words, the turbine itself is the electrical generator
Will selling pressure increase as we approach 10am?
Watch healthcare action at http://cspan.org/
When has a govt program not become more than 1st stated? and their initial budget is $829B.
Leveraged ETF scan
ones to study IMO. ERY, REW
Andalay Solar PV Panels
Solar photovoltaic systems must be paired with inverters to convert the panels’ DC power to the AC power used in homes. So installing a solar array involves sizing an inverter to fit the panels’ output and running a bunch of wiring—not that easy.
New panels from Andalay incorporate microinverters, along with racking and wiring—and take a big step toward true plug-and-play solar power for the home. Andalay says future products will be even easier to install.
What everyone knows isn't worth knowing.
Bill Miller on Barron's cover.
Dow 10,000 on CBS Morning Show this AM in the first 30 min segment.
gs
whisper number in the 5 dollar range? is whitney still working for goldman behind the scenes? IMHO
Re: gs
All she has is her predicting powers and reputation. Why would she stick her neck out and put her own name in the name of her new company, only to help GS and be wrong?
If anything GS goes higher by GS cronies pumping and buying, in efforts to discredit her downgrade.
gs
your probably right. it did her her target, so u have to give her credit for staying disciplined
TYP@ 11.91
TYP @ 11.91
Submitted by 2nd_ave (3854 comments) on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 10:01 #48931
...
Just moving an earlier post to the current chat.
Titanic......
So much like the sinking of the Titanic this market is... The 2 am hour is not far away..
double top SPX?
Might we have just seen a double top in SPX?
I know, its unlikely, but my very lack of desire to go short once again only to get burned says - maybe!
Let's see what SPX does with 1065. Silver is also looking weak this morning, especially relative to gold.
GS, BAC, JPM, WFC all down. Gold shares weaking
Now GLD, CEF, IAG GDX down too.
AAPL, FSLR, Goog Red.
AMZN RIMM are soft
JNJ down 2.8%
Alcoa has made the round trip since the unbelievably bullish earnings report.
On the next retest up, I will be adding to my various short positions.
1075-1080 level
seems somewhat similar to 950-955 level from June, which served as solid resistance for quite some time. I don't expect the s&p to break through this resistance this time, at least not without a more meaningful retrace than the 7% or so from two weeks ago.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
AMZN - target boosted at Goldman to $106. Internet trends likely improved during the second quarter. Buy rating.
BA - price target raised at Credit Suisse to $50 from $48. Neutral rating.
GOOG - estimates, target boosted at FBR. Estimates were increased through 2010. Expect search volume growth to drive near-term earnings upside. Outperform rating and new $660 price target.
Bloomberg headline eludes Whitney cause the drop
What bs. How about stocks pull back because the epic rally was all smoke and mirrors. Mom and pop shoud sell all their shares on up days an never come back to the stock market.
However the headline reads "U.S. Stocks Retreat as Whitney Downgrades Goldman Sachs Shares"
are there any good news publications left?
Re: Andalay Solar PV Panels
Hi Firefly - Thanks for the heads up on Akeena Solar's (AKNS)new product design called Andalay that limits installation complexity. Pretty thinly traded but will keep a eye on it. Happy Trading
OCNF
bought more at 1.26. With today's news this company is clearly not on the defensive.
I think a RAMS like move will be coming soon to OCNF.
Whats new ?
Semi's, tech, oil, gold, industrial, infrastructure ? Nope.... Seems buying in all these sectors IS defensive, not speculative. If you are at bat, and can see the catchers signals to the pitcher (current equity holders ), how hard is it to get a hit ? Only problem is, what if the catcher and pitcher are throwing the game ?
Greystar (T-GSL)
Hi All - Nice move on this one since early October. The founder is turning over the day to day responsibilites in due course, but will remain as chairman - he is one of the good guys. The project has lots (~8 mm ounces of Au & 35mm ounces of Ag)of metal and funding in place to move into development - probably a nice target for Kinross et. al. Happy Trading
Re: Whats new ?
Well its the buck - down again today, bouncing around near 76 once again. This pulls gold to new highs, and drags up oil to nearly the year high as well. So far the buck isn't falling through support yet, but I have to say, its really not looking great right now.
The only thing that still looks odd is that silver is really underperforming gold.
Institutional investors
A chart on the "net" daily amount of Buying and Selling for Institutional Investors from stocktiming.com.
“Institutional Accumulation has been making lower/highs and lower/lows. That is the definition of a down trend.
Accumulation is "down trending" indicating that Institutional Investors are selling into the rally. If the down trend continues, then logically, the next Institutional selling spurt would have a lower/low with a negative impact on the market.”
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpda...
Re: Institutional investors
What if the market goes higher and then they realized they sold too early?
Re: Institutional investors
What if the market goes lower, and then they realized they didn't sell enough!
Re: Institutional investors
either way client fees will be collected!
Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes
GS - Meredith Whitney cut her rating on the investment bank from Buy to Neutral
She musta been using the Cara RSI Scan tool..LOL. Shows a Sell alert three days ago.
Stressed over online trading? There's a gadget for that
(There's a picture in the link as well
If emotions are getting the better of you while trading online, The Rationalizer may be just the thing to tell you when it's time to take a break.
The prototype unveiled by Netherlands-based Philips Electronics and ABN AMRO aims at sensing day traders' stress levels so they can “time-out, wind down and reconsider their actions,” the companies said on Tuesday.
Users wear a device called the EmoBracelet that senses stress and makes an accompanying lighted bowl, or EmoBowl, change colour and flicker from yellow to red as emotions become more intense.
Researchers at Philips, Europe's biggest consumer electronics maker, say home investors often do not act purely rationally.
“Their behaviour is influenced by emotions, most notably fear and greed, which can compromise their ability to take an objective, factual stance,” they said.
Although not in production, Geert Christiaansen, chief of business development at Philips Design, says the prototype is part of a broader effort by Philips to help people cope with stress and the technology could be used in an array of other products.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/...
Re: Greystar (T-GSL) - dirty little secret
Luggie -
GSL's deposit is near a FARC-controlled area. Everybody freaks about the FARC, but nobody ever points out that there IS a certain risk of the company being hit hard for "protection money" - or worse - by the FARC.
Re: SLW & GG Reports
Veritas,
We are in the process of making briefings and updates available here, in the discourse, so you won't have to go looking for them. Links to the two updates will appear shortly.
Thanks,
Jack
Re: Greystar (T-GSL) - dirty little secret
Luggie - here's more. I got skittish on GSL doing my own DD. Recently, Otto said much the same about GSL and VEN. Seemingly a few of the Colombian gold juniors live in that same bad neighborhood. I don't know how to assess how big the risk is. I'm just surprised it almost never gets mentioned.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2009/07/i-wonder-...
Healh care bill update
(US) US Senator Snowe (R): will vote for Baucus healthcare plan
- (related UNH WCG HUM CI CVH UNH WLP )
Re: Shippers
Pulled up the 1 year chart of $BDI, and doesn't look much like an uptrend (to my untrained eye). Looks like an uptrend from last December was broken mid-August, and this recent rally has a ways to go up to test new downtrend line from beginning of June.
Re: Institutional investors
Isn't it likely the institutional investors have been the major force behind the gains since March? Some came late to the party and "MUST" be invested or risk losing their jobs if it continued to rise. Seems like a good explanation of the extension to date.
It certainly isn't small individual investors. Those who still have jobs are probably only participating through their 401(k) plans. Many are either jobless or worried they will be. Those with CD debt will do better paying it off than trying to beat those interest rates.
I see this as an important bit of info — a genuine "leading indicator".
intc & csx
i know trading earnings is historically a rookie blunder, but i was curious if the "board" has any opinions?
CORRUPTION CENTRAL
ALOHA !!
I have been out lately due to "family issues" ...
On my last US TREASURY REPORT for the week of 10/05 I compiled a collection of examples of US government/Wall Street corruption. This section I entitled CORRUPTION CENTRAL. I led off with a GROUND REPORT from Zimbabwe and then a follow-up from the CATO INSTITUTE. A lot of what happened to Zimbabwe was not "poor management" or "mistaken choices" it was out and out CORRUPTION! I then offered up a report from the SOLARI GROUP, led by Catherine Austin Fitts and ended with a report that is in the Nov 2009 issue of the American Conservative. I think I have read the Conservative maybe four times in my lifetime, but what caught my eye was this FBI translator turned whistleblower.
Here is a portion of the interview with Sibel Edmonds ...
EDMONDS: Okay. So these conversations, between 1997 and 2001, had to do with a Central Asia operation that involved bin Laden. Not once did anybody use the word “al-Qaeda.” It was always “mujahideen,” always “bin Laden” and, in fact, not “bin Laden” but “bin Ladens” plural. There were several bin Ladens who were going on private jets to Azerbaijan and Tajikistan. The Turkish ambassador in Azerbaijan worked with them.
There were bin Ladens, with the help of Pakistanis or Saudis, under our management. Marc Grossman was leading it, 100 percent; bringing people from East Turkestan into Kyrgyzstan, from Kyrgyzstan to Azerbaijan, from Azerbaijan some of them were being channeled to Chechnya, some of them were being channeled to Bosnia. From Turkey, they were putting all these bin Ladens on NATO planes. People and weapons went one way, drugs came back.
GIRALDI: Was the U.S. government aware of this circular deal?
EDMONDS: 100 percent. A lot of the drugs were going to Belgium with NATO planes. After that, they went to the UK and then a lot came to the US via military planes to distribution centers in Chicago and Paterson, New Jersey. Turkish diplomats who would never be searched were coming with suitcases of heroin.
LINK: http://www.amconmag.com/article/2009/nov/01/00006/
My point in airing all this info on American Corruption is to point out that what is going on in America is deeper and more perverse than any of us care to admit. Further, this corruption is just not a recent "crisis phenomenon". It has been ongoing for many decades. I first read of the interventions going on back in 1974 at the US FED website in their archives of FOMC Meeting Minutes, where it details the US FED, with Arthur Burns and Paul Volcker and Greenspan all sitting around the table discussing ways they can manipulate the US Dollar and how to get the most bang for their buck in doing so.
I think too many Americans have bought into this naive vision of America they learned from statist public schools. There is just no way America can become an Empire this big without corruption happening.
There is just so much money sloshing around in Washington DC for there not to be a major faction of corruption. I believe we are seeing the tip of the iceberg.
Within the first week of FY 2010 the combined total of marketable and non-marketable US DEBT went over $1.3TRIL USD. I looked back and did a comparison for prior FY first weeks and the Obama FY 2010 has some 70% more US DEBT than other past years starting back in FY 2003.
I can never be optimistic about America's future when I see so much "SPENDING and DEBT" and absolutely no sign of any US government spending cuts or downsizing. All I ever hear from Obama is the creation of a new government agency for this and that. I am not just against Obama. I was against Bush as well, calling him and Cheney "draft-dodgers" and God knows what else. I spare nothing not even the the Oval Office mop! It's Obama's turn to ravage our kid's future. I see no CHANGE! It's CORRUPTION CENTRAL and I see absolutely no deterrents that promote honesty and fiscal responsibility in Washington DC. NONE ...
The US Dollar is backed by such a "human condition" where corruption plays a major role in the decay of any Empire. This notion of "free floating" global currencies is doomed to failure as every Nation on Earth corrupts its way to the bottom in order to offer an export advantage. It is plain lunacy ...
Money has to be backed by something more substantial than just mouse clicks at the US Federal Reserve building. A MONEY MONOPOLY is not a level playing field in any way!
The US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENTS say it all ...
Re: Greystar (T-GSL) - dirty little secret
Hi Jock - Like you I am skittish of country risk, but still trade in and out of the stock. Ventana's property in the area shares a boundary with Greystar and shows nice recent intercepts but not nearly as advanced as the GSL Angostura project and the market cap on VEN is ~ 3x as large - go figure. I suppose as they move to production the government will be proactive to protect its revenue stream from Chavez's thugs, with the primary FARC strength in southeast Columbia away from the project I suppose they may be more threat to Anglo Ashanti's big project there. Guess country risk is lower here than in the U.S. under the current regime - at least the government appears to be a partner - not an opponent to reasonable mining development. Happy Trading
Hawaii Hotels Face Fewer Visitors, More Debt
kaimu, lots of typos and somewhat old news but where are the deals?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487037...
bought SRS at $9.84
I saw some accumulation taking place in SRS at $9.84 - $9.85 and decided to try my luck again, with a mental sell stop order at $9.78, where SRS made a double bottom during the past hour or so. I may buy more SRS at $9.80, if it gets there but then stops. This is a new strategy: instead of taking a one shot at a purchase, I'll try to split it in two purchases so as not to get shaken out by small oscillations, as I was getting yesterday.
USD down yet market down. Gold up. Last dance?
Away from pc today.
Re: double top SPX?
davefairtex, you posted yesterday that you are ready to give up an close your shorts. I felt this way for the past 3 months. :) What I realized (with the help of Alexander Elder) is that no one prevents me from jumping in and out as many times as I want. That is, you can draw a "line in the sand" for yourself at S&P 1070 and close your shorts if S&P decisively breaks this level with the intention of re-opening them as soon as you see S&P going below 1070 or if another bearish setup materializes at a higher level on S&P. That's my strategy.
World Steel Association ( WSA ) projects 9.2 % increase
in global steel demand in 2010.... Vale has confirmed its call for tender offers to build Very Large Ore Carriers.... number unspecified.. Todays Baltic Index puts capesize rates at $ 40,00.00/day vs. $ 29,109.00 on Sept.23....
the buck hit bottom?
It is coming back, with the help of dollar/yen. Look at the last 10 minutes of FXY. Yen, down perhaps 0.75% in 10 minutes!! Now something interesting happened. I wonder what it was.
SPX, GLD, SLV all responding according to the usual relationships. Buck back up almost to flat today. In 10 minutes of trading.
out of SRS at $9.91 (in at $9.84)
A little prematurely, but I just wanted to take profits while they exist -- day trading, as I realized yesterday, is a tough business. 0.07 profit on 3000 shares -- that should pay for our lunch, 2nd_ave. :) Just replying to your yesterday's post. :)
China Iron and Steel Association ( CISA ) said this morning
" daily steel production for September exceeded 1.69 metric tons ( above August #'s ).. Demand from emerging economies expected to grow 12 % in 2010 " ...... hmmmm
Re: World Steel Association ( WSA ) projects 9.2 % increase
make that $ 40,000.00 per day, not $ 40,00.00...
day trading
Looks like the "breakout above resistance" pattern is easiest to trade, at least for me. Since last Wednesday, when I started day trading, I have *always* made money on this pattern. Where I lost money, however, was when I trade to do a "follow up trade", hoping that the move in that direction will continue, when the stock itself was in "uncharted waters." At that point, the volatility of the stock would invariably rise and I would get shaken out by fluctuations.
Here is a quote by Alexander Elder on this topic:
“When the market gives no clear signals to buy or sell short, many beginners start squinting at their screens, trying to recognize trading signals. A good signal jumps at you from the chart and grabs you by the face – you can't miss it! It pays to wait for such signals instead of forcing trades when the market offers you none. Amateurs look for challenges; professionals look for easy trades.”
dry's..
drys, prgn, free, esea, exm, ocnf, dsx, egle, exm, gnk, dsx, nm, sblk... may have left some out.
closed naked call on UNG
UNG already had a couple of "collapses" from $12 to lower 11's, and had always rebounded strongly to around $12. This time, I decided that enough is enough for me, and I have just covered at $0.4 10 naked October $11 calls on UNG I sold a few weeks ago at $0.7. If UNG keeps moving down from here, then my October $11 puts will come into the money, and I will have some new profits to take.
bought some SRS at $9.89
All right, let me try to lose some money on SRS this time. :) I see a formation of higher lows taking place in SRS -- let's see how reliable this formation is.
Edit: bought some more SRS at $9.86
Edit 2: sold at 9.88 the shares I just bought at $9.86.
Edit 3: sold at $9.87 the shares I originally bought at $9.89 -- I don't like how the pattern of "higher lows" is unfolding on SRS now. I am basically flat on my second trade, and I don't want to give up the profit I made on the first trade.
Lesson for me: wait for the pattern "breakout above resistance" to appear and then trade it, as opposed to "inventing" some random trades.
Re: TYP@ 11.91/ OFF 11.88
Not worth the trouble right now.
Re: Healh care bill update
Senate Finance Committee: Passes healthcare reform bill; Vote was 14-9
- Snowe voted in favor (related HUM UNH CI AET WCG CVH )
GG and SLW updates are posted
You can now find the GG and SLW updates on the CaraCommunity front page, for download. Subsequent briefings and updates will appear there. Superseded documents will still be available on this site under the top menu heading "Site Index", subheading "Briefings".
Thanks,
Jack
THE WAY IT REALLY IS--Brigadeer General Smedley Butler, US Marin
"I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went its way unmolested." -Brigadeer General Smedley Butler, US Marine Corp.
Re: Healh care bill update
Thanks Vad,
AET is the one I gave a heads-up on earlier. It could easily move +10% in a few days -- unless the market tanks right away. But if it does, it ought to be a candidate for first mover advantage in a broad market recovery.
Re: Shippers
I'm not a great chartist but it sure looks like an uptrend to me with the recent lows coming in right around the upper resistance from March. That looks positively sloped to me.
Re: the buck hit bottom?
Island reversal on the chart of $USD:$XJY (dollar vs yen)?
why would capesize rates go up $ 10,900.00 / day ( since 09/23 )
if the shippers had no leverage ? Someone needs the bulkers... regardless of equity prices... ( record agu. production for 09' may be helping ).
Re: THE WAY IT REALLY IS--Brigadeer General Smedley Butler, ...
Monroe,
How long do you think American Moms & Pops will put up with this nonsense. Patriotism is one thing, but suffering for the best interests of international corporations (who no longer consider themselves American) is another.
If anybody questions the latter, ask GM why they closed plants in the US and opened them in China recently. Ask Steve Wynn why he thinks he's Chinese all of a sudden. I could beat this to death, but you all know the point.
The US military role of armed forces being sent into harm's way is finished. Politicians will no longer be electable running on that platform. From now on, the military will have to use robots and drones to "police" the world. The franchise on supplying personnel carriers, body armour, body bags, and the like, is over.
America will get an even stronger military as a result, in my opinion. More resources will go into homeland security.
And from my own experience, there will be positives for returning military personnel. My Dad after WWII stayed in the army a couple years until he got his electrician's trade papers, then signed up with the UBEW union who posted him to an international corporation where he never missed a day's work until he retired. He always thanked his country for that.
Re: Healh care bill update
Hi Bill,
Thanks for your post. Was wondering how to play this - the AET chart looks absolutely miserable: all the MAs (weekly,daily, hourly) are just a mess. If anything this looks like a good short candidate. Given the news, would you buy when the tide (moving averages) turn? Or would you buy now and write calls? What's a good strategy in cases like these? I'd like to hear how others play this situation out too :-) Thanks !
Re: intc & csx
ike- Well, I have an opinion. I think INTC jump-starts the market to 10000 tomorrow.
Re: THE WAY IT REALLY IS--Brigadeer General Smedley Butler, ...
mbernold,
You might find this book interesting, "The plot to seize the White House," about Gen. Butler.
As with almost all whistle blowers it was a dirty thankless job.
tof- You timed your trip to SF well
http://tinyurl.com/ygsekqv
The bear is dead. Intel sounds good
I am getting emails from multiple people.
I guess the recession is over.
CSX up 3% after-hours
...
...
duplicate
Re: tof- You timed your trip to SF well
Timing is everything in life isn't it?
We'll prob open above 10k tomorrow
Perfect for my strategy
Too good to be true is usually ..
Re: intc & csx
That INTC report was pretty darned solid. It's early but I think this is confirmation of the 2nd leg in a business cycle...the first being slashing everything to save money, the 2nd being using that saved money to start growing sales again.
re : baz22 - add to list of SHIPS
http://tinyurl.com/ykqg9vy
http://tinyurl.com/yzfo8v7
http://tinyurl.com/yg4ggtm
Re: intc & csx
Intel exceeded their lowered expectations. The stock is already overpriced, and it is up 5% on this news. Hopefully this is more confirmation that a top is forming in the general market.
JPM Earnings tomorrow 7 am EST....
obviously another big market mover....looks as though 10k is in the cards.
Re: intc & csx
wait...how is this confirmation of a top?
Re: intc & csx
The stock, already up tremendously on the year, goes up a lot when it meets its managed earnings guidance. Meaning that investors are acting as a herd and are too excited to buy it at overvalued levels.
Re: intc & csx
I guess the word "confirmation" is a bit premature here... it's an assumption at this point. Sell-off tomorrow and close in red would serve as a nice juicy confirmation.
Re: intc & csx
I agree, I meant to say that it is evidence of topping.
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak
Here's the problem. Vad is focused on a red (rare is the proper way to cook it) juicy steak, and fjd is focused on topping(s). The two complement each other, but man the steak needs to come first.
I'm sure Geithner and Bernanke will be fighting over the check at the chop house. Hard to say who did what, but with the DJIA >= 10000, they'll be too intoxicated to care.
parabolic blow-off?
It has felt like such a couple of times over the last few months, but then I recall my surprise at how strong such a blow off really can be back at the 2007 top.
Attached is a chart of the S&P for the year leading up to that blow off compared to the year up till now. As crazy fast as this market has been rising, compare the slope of the rally to the slope of the 3 stages of the blow off back in 2007.
Not a pretty picture if you are a bear (like I fashion myself to be, unfortunately :)
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak
"I'm sure Geithner and Bernanke will be fighting over the check at the chop house. Hard to say who did what, but with the DJIA >= 10000, they'll be too intoxicated to care."
It would all be nice and good, but the volume on S&P and IYR (the two indexes I am tracking closely) over the past couple of weeks is going to be the fly on their stake: the volume keeps going down on "up" days and jumps on "down" days. This looks like a classical near-the-top distribution...
Playing on Ben's mp3. Or maybe it's Tim's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkwJ-g0iJ6w
Re: parabolic blow-off?
proudPapa, the slopes of the July rally, of the early September rally and of the early October rally are as extreme as those of the final rally in 2007. So the bears have already been killed 3 times over the past few months -- how much more carnage does the bull need to do with its horns?
Business outlook in N.America - INFY
INFY interview on software services outlook
http://tinyurl.com/yhzvxbq
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak
David- You sold your SRS @ 9.87/9.88. Now it's at 9.72. Don't worry, be happy.
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak/SRS
2nd_ave, I sold today only the shares I purchased for intra-day trading. I am still keeping my long-term SRS position, and the fact that it is down 2% after hours actually has me worried. :) My intent is to sell this long-term position if IYR breaks above the latest top at $43.70 made on September 28.
Re: parabolic blow-off?
I've had the not-so-unique (mis)-pleasure of staying short too long and losing my pants with SRS in April this year. It's been a learning experience to 'trade prices'. Even though the charts look over-extended, the bear in me has been burnt once and is waiting for confirmation / break in the bullish pattern before striking. For all we know, the rally could go on till mid-2010, but at some point, thanks to 2010 being an election year, the small businesses (the ones picking up the tab from the big banks) need to be mollified. Once the Fed starts tightening, wonder how many bulls will be left standing then ...
Re: parabolic blow-off?
For all we know, the rally could go on till mid-2010, but at some point, thanks to 2010 being an election year, the small businesses (the ones picking up the tab from the big banks) need to be mollified. Once the Fed starts tightening, wonder how many bulls will be left standing then ...
joe- (I know you know this already, but) The real question is "How many bears will be left standing?" (The bulls may not be standing either, but it will be by choice.)
Re: parabolic blow-off?
ProudPapa, yes I was thinking similar thoughts but my feeling was the current rate of change was higher not lower, (slope). Your charts were very interesting but then I just had to calc the slope angles in my head, because the scales are a little different and both charts seemed to be linear rather than log.
I realized I may as well just plot the whole time period together to get the whole story. Attached is a log chart for the whole period. I also created a few parallel lines of the current rally and compared back to the 2006 -7 era. The last rally in late 2007 is about the same slope as now, with the previous 3 rallies in 2007 back to 2006 being slightly lower slopes.
Now as can be seen from this chart the highest slope rallies were the negative ones in 2008 - early 2009, you just had to be on the right side or got killed.
Re: parabolic blow-off?
Why a blow-off? I mean we could equally well see a gentler slope leading higher ...
Why be a Bear or a Bull?
Reading all the comments about being a bear, thinking bearish, getting killed as bear, I can't help but ask: Why? And before you start listing reasons for bearish outlook, I'll add: Why being either a bear or a bull?
I suggested yesterday to give some thoughts to a few questions. Let me repeat them:
The price at any given moment is a reflection of that collective agreement at that moment. From this point of view,
- what does the very concept of "price belonging somewhere" mean?
- What is the measurement of that belonging?
- Belong at 6500 or at 10000 - according to what?
- Isn't price always where it belongs at that particular point in time, according to the agreement at that point?
So, the market moves, changes, offers new evidence of this or that - and you what, stay locked in your chosen outlook? Once you decided that it's time for the market to go down, won't you be picking the evidence confirming your point of view while dismissing everything that says otherwise? Before you say no, think of how many times you saw just that in zillion of comments on zillion of blogs. Are you sure you aren't guilty of the same? Isn't this being locked in certain opinion exactly the reason for devastating losses?
How many times bull was proclaimed dead over last 6 month? How many of those claims were right? And before you label me as permabull - how many times the bear was proclaimed exhausted over the fall-winter of 2008, up to March of 2009? How many of those claims were right?
Now, before you try to attribute all those mistaken claims to inexperience or lack of skill - were the analysts at any level of the industry more accurate? If not, doesn't it tell you that there is something fundamentally wrong with the very concept of predicting and sticking with expressed opinion?
So why be a bear? Why be a bull? Be a trader! Watch for the market action that tells you what is happening, form your reaction and go with it. Let the market tell you whether it's a profit or loss, and take either with no hesitation. And, in order to do it all, design your system that defines the signals of bullish move, bearish move, confirmation, disproof... Those all are components of being a trader.
A lot of words for what can be put in one sentence: Trade what you see, not what you think
Re: Why be a Bear or a Bull?
The most important thing I learned here is "the trend is your friend". As much as the stock market is like a casino, it is not one. Casinos "the house") is regulated but the market's house (fed) is not. So this is a gravy train. Bet with the house "fed" and know that at some point the sheeple might overthrow the system.
for me, I started lightening my load today and will probably sell a percentage as we go to 10,000. this way, I will have dry powder to send offshore to another currency and build a long in the brics. Peter Schiff is right on but Bill Cara is the right up there too. This blog taught me soo much.
Just read Bill's book and Never go against the trend. Straddle (maybe) if you aren't sure.
I am long C but will sell if it goes upside down in the morning ( I already have gains.) I love SU And PBR and of course all the Gold but ready to sell everything by friday and rebuy after the next correction which will be coming I think soon.
Will work on the next year being more articulate with graphs
vb
Re: Why be a Bear or a Bull?
The most important thing I learned here is "the trend is your friend". As much as the stock market is like a casino, it is not one. Casinos "the house") is regulated but the market's house (fed) is not. So this is a gravy train. Bet with the house "fed" and know that at some point the sheeple might overthrow the system.
for me, I started lightening my load today and will probably sell a percentage as we go to 10,000. this way, I will have dry powder to send offshore to another currency and build a long in the brics. Peter Schiff is right on but Bill Cara is the right up there too. This blog taught me soo much.
Just read Bill's book and Never go against the trend. Straddle (maybe) if you aren't sure.
I am long C but will sell if it goes upside down in the morning ( I already have gains.) I love SU And PBR and of course all the Gold but ready to sell everything by friday and rebuy after the next correction which will be coming I think soon.
Will work on the next year being more articulate with graphs
vb
Re: Why be a Bear or a Bull?
what I see is a backtest of the broken uptrend creating a head and shoulders top with a clear neckline already established pretty much. The backtest is against a rising wedge breakdown which is usually very negative to completion.
What I realize is that anything can and usually does.
Usd at a falling wedge into support at the same time with many bears screaming from the rooftops. So where is the contra play there?
Jmho
Re: Why be a Bear or a Bull?
what I see is a backtest of the broken uptrend creating a head and shoulders top with a clear neckline already established pretty much. The backtest is against a rising wedge breakdown which is usually very negative to completion.
What I realize is that anything can and usually does.
Usd at a falling wedge into support at the same time with many bears screaming from the rooftops. So where is the contra play there?
Jmho
Re: parabolic blow-off?
Hey Quasi,
Thanks for following up. I thought there might be some scaling issues, unfortunately my access to real charting tools sucks, and stockcharts didn't go far back enough to capture the entire period. Now on second glance, it does get most of it, as long as i get rid of MA's and Bollinger bands:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00585964600
Of course it can continue to climb steadily, but from my (limited experience) the slope usually gets steeper with each subsequent rally until there is a correction. Who knows, perhaps this latest rally will calm down and climb slower and steadily from here on out. I just doubt it.
I call myself a bear based on my macroeconomic outlook, and yes, that influences my trading decisions. I guess the problem recently is that market seems to extended to go long in anything, yet change in trend hasn't happened yet. And I find it difficult to sit on my hands, so try to jump in trying to time a turn around. I know, classic noob mistake, but at least I do it at fairly well defined stop points and keep position sizes small.
New content and formatting for the blog
Given that I am going to make changes in the blog to make it easier for me to produce, it's a good time to make changes to some of the content as well as the formatting. If anybody here wants me to look at examples of what you have seen elsewhere and think could be valuable here, please send me a link to billcara at gmail.com with blog in the subject header. I will consider anything. Thanks.
Re: We'll prob open above 10k tomorrow
NYUgrad, your optimism is very refreshing, but,
gold hit a record today, and the USD is so shaky that even my Mexican friends are worried.
another person asked me "which way will the market go tomorrow "?
That was after I told him that I bought some financial ETF's (XFN:T)
Some of the gang here trade for fun, some for the challenge, I need the money.
And if you're right I'll make nice money.
To Bill, this is a great blog, really helps me. I used to watch the "Fool" and Kitco but overall this is home. Glad that you have the common sense to know that even the best can be improved.
....Allen
Re: We'll prob open above 10k tomorrow
another person asked me "which way will the market go tomorrow "?
allen-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZbKHDPPrrc&NR=1
Send In The Clowns
http://tinyurl.com/yfvxgub
Re: parabolic blow-off?
ProudPapa,
Ah yes I see, if you don't have a subscription at Stockcharts you are limited to the last 3 years of data. I happen to use them for charting so I have the Extra level of membership and have been very happy with the platform and value, for what I like to do.
Just for your interest here is your $SPX chart going back as far as I can, 1980. This really lets you see the scale of whats happened. Note I changed the chart to log scale and also added the PPO indicator. I prefer the PPO over the MACD, same thing moving average convergence divergence, just the PPO is in percent rather than the raw dollar value. As you can see it makes a big difference in seeing and comparing whats going on over long periods of time. In particular where the price has changed significantly over time it just makes sense to use percentages for comparisons rather than raw dollar change.
Re: We'll prob open above 10k tomorrow
Thanks 2nd,
........needed the laugh.
Que sera, sera
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak/SRS
INTC closed down in AH trading, after being up as much as 5%
The mid-seventies
Listening to Sondheim reminds me of a personal pull-back period in the mid-seventies.
Every night after dark I would walk the few miles from home> The Arb(oretum)> Huron River> Geddes> loop back into a quiet residential area> Washtenaw Avenue> back home.
There was always one point where I would stop to watch a solitary light somewhat incongruously illuminating the side of a utility building on one bank of the river. Man is there more apt an illustration of existential solitude? Or from an auditory point of view, the clarinet solo that opens Send In The Clowns?
Another example why CNBC should be shut down...
' Intel projects revenues of $ 10.5 Billion in the fourth quarter.. these are blowout projections ' Dear, dear Maria.. yes, that IS true... What was left out was the other end of the number... Paul Otellini, the CEO of Intel, said .... " expected revenue for the fourth quater is expected to be between $ 9.7 Billion and $ 10.5 Billion... ".. quite a bit of distance between the bottom and top... but, what the hell... what I say doesn't mean a hill of beans...
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak/SRS
Hi Dave... the last trade was at 20:01 for 129,900 shares... someone was spared the pain... no need even thinking ' SEC '....
Seoul-searching
South Korea takes the lead in Asia.
Bulls 35 Bears 0
Total shutout. With 14 minutes left in the 4th quarter, I'd already be squeezing the remote to unlock the doors to my car.
Re: Seoul-searching/ Don't look now, but Hong Kong just
bumped into the lead:
http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/
Re: Seoul-searching/ Or is it Shanghai?
...
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak/SRS
Bazz22, INTC AH last trade looks very fishy.
AH opens and within the first few minutes 10M shares change hands in the $20.60 range, then press release and price jumps into the mid $21 range, trades another 7M shares in that range and then the very last trade is $20.40 for 129K shares, thus printing the tape down to an AH close 0.5% below the daily close.
Or could it just be a glitch (slip of the finger) and that trade was actually supposed to be $21.40. ?? I've seen it happen before, we'll see in the morning. Anyway the talking heads and headlines will read INTC down 0.5% AH, Not exactly the whole truth about what actually happened.
Re: intc & csx/ The 2 trillion dollar steak/SRS
They ( ' Puppets '... fits em' better ) )won't give it a second thought, Quasi... Could have been a slip of the ol' burbon heavy hand, but I think someone was done a favor ( short covers/ long smiles )... I've been in and out of INTC, so will probably be back in tomorrow, since god ( er, Cramer ) says smooth sailing to $ 25....
dollar breakdown tonight
It looks like USD broke below 76 pretty convincingly in asia this evening, down to 75.66 (according to kitco.com/market). I'm guessing next stop: 75. This will give us another 20-30 points on SPX (if the rough ratio holds) and I don't know how much more in GLD and USO. SPX futures are SPX +9.25, seemingly from the Intel announcement.
Chart on USD shows one of those declining wedges on the weekly, and a descending triangle on the daily, with a breakout to the bottom on the daily chart.
It could always recover tonight, but I'd say the odds are against it.
Re: dollar breakdown tonight
INTC = 9850 Gap up open Wed
lower USD = 10,000+ Wed session
JPM = 10,200
C = 10,400
GS = 10,600
GOOG = 10,750
HOG = 10,900 (unbelievable sales overseas the past 6 months with lower USD)
BAC = 10,999
GE = 11,000
Friday Close
Yay. We have a recovery. Can i please get a receipt with that?
This will end badly for those not hedging their long bets.
Re: parabolic blow-off?
Nice chart. I see a double top with limited hope of recovery given the high level of government debt and the balance of payments, etc.
Seems that the RSI 7 is not a useful indicator for a long range chart.
Re: dollar breakdown tonight
Mmmhhhhh...where else are you going to put your money right now?
"Strongest 2nd to 3rd qtr Rev growth in 30+ yrs"
"Chip bellwether Intel (INTC) late Tuesday reported third-quarter results that trounced analyst views, saying it had its strongest second-to-third-quarter revenue growth in more than 30 years."
Go from 0 (zero) to 10M, guess what the % gain is? I know this is a dramatization but the point is that a respectable # divided by a pathetic number will = a pretty solid integer.
Go compare it to same period in 2008, 2007, 2006.
Then go look at INTC's 5 yr chart. Not so orgasmic.
Are you telling me Jamie Dimon & Lloyd Blankfien are buying along side mom and poppa today and tomorrow? c'mon! We have been on this community way too long for this. If your time frame is minutes, hours, and days, there is def a momentum play. But if you bought $1M worth of INTC in march, it would be RISKY not to sell into this frenzy buying.
I am going full on for 2010 March options playing the short side. I will prob get some unbelievable prices for premiums the first 30 minutes tomorrow.
Re: dollar breakdown tonight
You know NYU I think you are hinting at something here. Splitting companies into "those with overseas exposure" to "those who don't" might make for an interesting analysis. Is the market giving us a relatively lower risk paired trade here?
We can do a simple thing. We can buy SH and a bunch of companies with overseas exposure, in equal quantities, right before earnings. Of course folks will think its all about a recovery but we know its really all about the slow but steady demise of the dollar.
INTC Conf Call
Couldn't help chiming in a bit. I can't figure out the justification of higher price. Here are some may-be-flawed observations:
- Revenue and Profit slid 7.8% year to year, yet the stock price is at the level of summer 08. Guess need to check their forward EPS.
- Majority of Q3 sales came in from non-US regions. The growth is in Notebook area, not PC. Back-to-school sales jumped beyond their forecast, thus the surprise. I don't think they have major competitors, besides AMD. Not clear if this is sustainable into the future quarters.
- There is no denying that they executed very well, and run a lean/mean shop. But, I don't get a good/clear feeling of demand growth. Someone on the call said that their guidance is drawn from PC growth #, which didn't really tell me much. They remain on a wait-n-see in restock inventory (JIT). They could benefit if Window 7 sells.
- It's ashamed that no analysts asked about currency impact on the EPS.
How it trades tomorrow would be a good tell.
Re: INTC Conf Call
I can't make this up. The euphoric headline on cnbc is "Intel's Earnings: Tech-tacular! Shares Leap"
the below data is a decrease in rev vs q3 2008:
Intel said after markets closed Tuesday that it earned 35 cents a share on revenue of $9.39 billion in the third quarter.
In the same quarter last year, Intel earned 35 cents a share on a topline of $10.217 billion...
Now adjust that for currency impact. this is a total sales job. Not saying intc is a bad company. But hb&b is selling risk.
Re: INTC Conf Call
Well, revenues by region for INTC is as follows:
* Americas 21%
* Asia Pacific 53%
* Europe 16%
* Japan 10%
Unfortunately for this simply being "a dollar story" year over year, if you look back at Q3 2008, you will notice that USD was at about the same level it is now - on average, perhaps slightly lower.
However if you look at this as a quarter-over-quarter thing, then perhaps you could get a 5% increase in revenues due to the buck drop.
BKX and Kind of Funny Banker Stuff
This just in, and too precious to ignore. The chief at CITI is named "Peek", and he thinks this is a good time to get out. I wonder where his stock options will be priced. I bet he exercises them all immediately.
I don't have experience of "hundreds or thousands" of Fib Fan charts, but I like the idea, since combining price and time seems important. Look at XLF.
This rally must be near the end, since I had the honest realization that perhaps this tanker (economy) had been turned around and that way more upside is possible.
And just in case you hadn't noticed....America's government has been taken over by Bankers. This is not a good thing.
Check out the BKX charts, I really like the way these turn out. 0% to 5% more upside. This Charade is near a top.
Irony upon Irony, being Bearish is not Good for your health. The Chicago Cubs are Bankrupt, and that is another opportunity for charlatans to steal from the American Taxpayer.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/21/news/companies/zel...
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/cit-ceo-re...
preparing to sell some SRS
Trading what I see: $USD did not stage a real rally off the 76 level and instead broke convincingly below it. S&P futures are up 0.9% right now, which suggests that instead of making a double top, S&P will break out to new highs tomorrow, which is clearly bullish. I just placed a sell stop limit order on 1/3 of the SRS I was holding long-term, stop at $9.8, limit $9.6. If the market gaps up tomorrow and then sells down, then I'll buy back these SRS shares. I doubt, however, that the market will keep oscillating around the current level, making me buy SRS high and sell it low. Either the uptrend will continue, or the market will break down.
Re: preparing to sell some SRS
... Either the uptrend will continue, or the market will break down.
Dave, maybe its just that it's late in the night, but I thought this line was so funny ... :-)
Re: preparing to sell some SRS
I agree, funny, but somehow very appropriate.
Re: INTC Conf Call
OK - Simple action plan
Eliminate Lobbyists
Greatly reduce campaign contributions
Make choice: bank or trading organization, just one
Do not allow any banks, brokers, or large multinationals to also own any media, at all. Just say no.
Slap CNBC upside the head.
How does that sound?
Re: INTC Conf Call
I think those INTC trades posted were late postings, which is allowed. They probably occurred late but before the close of normal trading. I had a AH buy limit order in at 20.72 that did not get filled.
Bill-I think the links are broken
Hi Bill,
Just wanted to let you know I clicked on the SLW and GG reports and only found the image so I think there is a missing link.
Re: Why be a Bear or a Bull?
"Trade what you see, not what you think"
Yes!
Trying to guess the next market move based on history is a waste of energy,IMO. Like predicting the weather, past events may give a clue to what tomorrow brings, but...
If I look outside and it's pouring rain, no matter what the TV guy said last night, the picnic will be canceled.
Re: INTC Conf Call
stevo,
I like the plan, but really believe we need a Constitutional revision to eliminate the ability of Congress to dominate the populace.
They think, act and live like the CEOs they work with and for.
Their pay and benefits should be linked to the average American. "We the People" should be able to fire any one of them at any time. they should Never be allowed to become lobbyists.
We could begin by making an example of Charlie Rangle (and throw in Timmy the Treasurer) for tax evasion.
I want to see some measure of justice before I die.