[5:56am ET] Yesterday was obviously a bounce off short-term over-sold levels. In Sunday's Week In Review, I indicated I could see a possible bounce early this week of +2% to +4%... but not much more. But now with Europe up over +1%, and US equity market, energy and precious metals futures all pointing higher, today ought to start out on a positive note.
Behind the roar, however, I can almost feel the anxiety of the Bulls who are looking to run from the barn. The analyst ratings upgrades yesterday, the constant talk about Brazil, and on and on, makes me smile. You know, the Interventionists can only push on a string so much before it snaps. I’m biding my time watching for the break.
Maybe I’m wrong. We’ll see. We did finally get some positive economic data, which mainstream media trumpeted with a headline: “World markets gain after data boosts Wall Street”. The text began, almost breathlessly “World stock markets rose Tuesday after the U.S. service sector, a mainstay of the world's No. 1 economy, showed growth for the first time in a year …” Did we really need to be told in the opening sentence that the US is the world’s No. 1 economy? Look, I know how stock promoters write press releases and the lead to this article smacks of the same.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-markets-gain-after-data-apf-19110524...
Nevertheless, the data – one piece mind you – on the surface was promising.
[Econoday] The ISM's non-manufacturing index finally pushed beyond 50, at 50.9 in September for a solid 2-1/2 point gain and indicating that the bulk of the nation's businesses are now reporting month-to-month gains or at least no month-to-month change. New orders had been lagging but no longer, up more than 4 points to 54.2 and pointing to an extending run of positive overall reports in the months head. Backlogs jumped 10-1/2 points to 51.5 to underscore the strength. Output, which had already popped over 50, increased noticeably in September as the business activity index jumped nearly 4 points to 55.1. The rate of de-stocking slowed with the inventory index up 4-1/2 points to a still sub-50 level of 47.5. Deliveries, at 50.0, showed no change in the month.
Growth, prosperity for America…then why was the US Dollar down?
It was down because the Interventionists were selling it to pump Crude Oil (+$0.46/bbl to 70.41), $GOLD (+$14.30/oz to 1017.30), and the equity markets (S&P 500 +1.49% to 1040.46), etc.
The point I’d like to make today is that the blowhards you hear on Financial Entertainment Television who are pointing to previous highs in the equity market are referring to those highs as ‘normals’ when in fact those former highs were actually stretched by manipulation and hype so far above normal that it is ludicrous to advance that notion, and outright stupid for the public to believe it.
Let’s get a grip. Markets are marketing, and sales people these days are out of their minds when they try to pull the old cons. Let’s face it; most of us are on to their games. Sadly, many of us are not, which is why these games play on.
Let’s have some fun. Here is the link to the WIR #30 of July 2007. I just looked for the first WIR that popped up for July 2007 because I remember that was when I was writing my book (“Lessons”), staying at the Nassau Harbour Club for a couple months, back when the market was topping.
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/07/week_in_review_30_20070728.html
Look at those HB&B ratings upgrades, right near the long-term cycle top. Are you surprised there were no downgrades? Man, you must have caught onto their game by now!
Look at those share prices back in the summer of 2007, despicably high, promoted beyond all reasonableness. Well those are the prices that analysts today are calling the normal, and today’s prices they are saying are still so far below what they were. What absolute nonsense.
Actually, what absolute salesmanship. It has nothing to do with analytical professionalism.
The same thing goes on every market cycle top, and bottom …and top, and bottom… The same analysts who survive the cycles are paid even more to tell their same old, same old… It’s actually pathetic.
You know the old saying: ‘fool me once, shame on you; but fool me twice, shame on me’. So, don’t be shamed by this stuff; it’s nothing but Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) laughing in the faces of the clients they rip off.
Now, I didn’t say look down on the analysts; these people are the low-paid help, and many of them are actually very good. When I refer to the culprits, I mean the proprietary sales trading desks of HB&B who use the work of their own analysts to drum up business (ie, order flow) to trade against. Those are the bandits.
Actually, those people are pretty good guys too; they are just the enemy, taking as much money out of your pocket and mine as we let them.
One more thing: Go back to that July 28 WIR#30-2007. How many suckers were buying the dips that summer? Think about it when you feel pushed into buying the dips now after prices have lifted ~+70% across the board in seven months without a break, and without any fundamental support other than the storyline that results are beating expectations.
Yes, fool me twice, shame on me.
These people at HB&B, the Fed and Treasury are playing the same games as they did in the 1990s and 1980s, and (some of them) the 1970s, 1960s, and 1950s. And the public are making the same mistakes all these years. Nothing… nothing has changed.
The mighty US is now down almost to a 75 cent Dollar. Ask yourself what would happen in a real economic recovery where the $USD actually rallied +$0.46 on the day.
Something else to think about while you watch prices get pumped higher this morning.
Comments
Put call ratio slowly swing to other end
Ideal would be a reading of heavy calls, difficulty getting past 1050 area, weak vol rally, and gold peaking.
http://bit.ly/4pIIdL
http://bit.ly/pyGYR
Stock correlations for 2009
For those interested in stock correlations, I computed the numbers for UNG, USO, SPY , IWM, XLF, DIA, GLD, GDX, UUP, EWZ, BZF, FXE, FXA, GS, VIX, for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2009, and how they dynamically changed during the year.
SPY was very highly correlated with everything (average is 0.92 with all of them), except with oil, gas and UUP, where there is a high negative correlation (-0.91). Oil and gas are two distinct creatures.
In contrast, GS only correlated with XLF by 0.85.
Also, GS is very highly inversely correlated with the U.S. Dollar (-0.95) (how patriotic)
Table for Q3 2009: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/SssqN4kQIjI/...
Article: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/10/stock-...
"Astounded" by Goldman's Upgrade: Banks "Heading Into the Storm,
http://tinyurl.com/ycnq2np
Bill,
You and Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics appear to have a similar view of yesterday's market action, although Whalen is definitely angry at GS:
"Citing a positive outlook on earnings, Goldman analysts raised the outlook on banks from neutral to 'attractive' this morning. They also upgraded Wells Fargo to 'buy' from 'neutral', Comerica to 'neutral' from 'sell', and added Capital One to their 'conviction buy' list.
Whalen is 'astounded' Goldman would make such a move 'when the banking industry is heading into the storm.' Contrary to the Goldman call, Whalen says the earnings outlook will get worse over the next two quarters, culminating in a bloodbath in the fourth quarter."
It took all of 7 minutes, Bill .........
Bob Doll, of Blackrock, on Sucker, er, I mean ' Squawk Box ', was just talking about " although we ARE up 50 %, just look how FAR we are from the 2007 highs ".... may God help us.
Re: "Astounded" by Goldman's Upgrade: Banks "Heading Into ...
Yes, right. And BofA-Merrill Lynch upgraded the European bank sector to overweight. The banks will start selling their shares soon.
RE: Gold breakout tomorrow
Davefairtex, re your post from last night, "On the weekly chart, $GOLD sure looks like an ascending triangle, on the brink of a breakout.."
I was thinking the same thing and was playing with this chart earlier in the evening.
Weekly Gold, ascending triangles annotated, similar to past set ups.
Funny how BAC gapped down to $ 15.52 - $ 15.90 last Friday
in the first 20 minuets, on huge volume - 53,000,000 shares, and yesterday was obviously included in Goldman's favorable banking outlook.... and trading in the $ 17.20 range in todays pre-market...
Re: Funny how BAC gapped down to $ 15.52 - $ 15.90 last Friday
And Ladies and Gents, right there is HALF of your good ol' $ 100,000,000 per day gains at Goldman.. on ONE stock...
RE: Gold breakout tomorrow
Yeah I had to buy the breakout last night before going to sleep. So far the trade looks good, but its not quite the $100 short covering monster that I had hoped for. :)
EDIT: There it goes. Now +16 to 1033. The dollar must have dropped, since oil is now +1.02 to 71.40 too.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
AMZN - PT Raised from $85 to $95 @ FBR Capital. Market Perform
RIMM - Bernstein Initiates Coverage with an Underperform. PT = $60
Looking at all the data this am I cannot make a decision YET
All these upgrades by GS basically extended this "Stocks for Clunkers" program a few more ticks/sessions. I want to make a decision yesterday but this is a case where it is prudent to wait to see how prices react to support/resistance & listen to what the markets are saying.
Bill's reminder of all the upgrades at the cycle top last yr and prob every cycle top, was a great timing for my thinking/planning.
Will this morning be Gap N Go, Gap N Trap, or Gap N Fill?
the real PM play
Of course, the real PM play last night? Silver, naturally. On my screen it's +0.65 to 17.20. Did I buy that? No, I did not.
Already 75k GC (gold futures) contracts traded today. That's a whole moderate volume trading day, and the NYSE hasn't even opened yet. Now +19. Wish I had realtime dollar.
HND.to/SSG/FXP/TZA>>Year of the Daytrader
Looking for re-entry points into the ultrashorts.
This has truly been a summer/fall that rewards daytraders. Keep opinions on a short leash and subject to change on a whim, cut losses quickly, and be in cash at the end of each day.
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Released on 10/6/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk10/3, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales - W/W change 0.1 % 0.3 %
Store Sales - Y/Y 0.9 % 1.0 %
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fi...
Highlights
Cooler weather gave seasonal sales a boost in the Oct. 3 week, according to ICSC-Goldman's same-store sales tally that rose 0.3 percent vs. the prior week for a year-on-year rate of plus 1.0 percent, next only to a 1.6 percent rate in the Sept. 12 week as the best year-on-year rate since November. The report is nevertheless calling for a full-month September decline of 2.0 percent year-on-year though it does say the bias is to the strong side. A run of 40 chain stores will report their September sales on Thursday, setting up expectations for the ex-auto ex-gas category of next week's retail sales report from the Commerce Department.
Welcome, Vinay
Met a Dad recently on the soccer field. A professional trader educated in India, now married with kids and residing on the Peninsula. Sharp guy. Hope he'll chime in with an occasional comment/insight.
[editing my original misspelling of his name, for which I apologize.]
Re: Looking at all the data this am I cannot make a decision YET
"Will this morning be Gap N Go, Gap N Trap, or Gap N Fill?"
You're picking my thoughts NY ;)
I'm off to Italy for two weeks Fri night so don't want to get too engaged. Will watch the $POG to learn something. If the 60 min channel is to hold then a retest is IMO likely today, given SPY pre-market. See if we can catch a bull with its pants down today, for an overnight hold. Any drop in SPY following retest should affect $USD at same time. Perhaps $USD churns in a narrow range as a retracement occurs over coming days? The CPT is bearish 6 weeks + which indicates a more significant move in the dollar.
Redbook
Released on 10/6/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk10/3, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change -2.2 % -1.9 %
Highlights
Redbook reports strength in store sales with its same-store tally pointing to a 0.4 percent month-to-month rise in September. This call points to a gain for the ex-auto ex-gas category of next week's retail sales report from the Commerce Department, a gain that would offset what seems certain to be a steep overall decline tied to the end of cash-for-clunkers. Redbook's specific tally for the Oct. 3 week shows a 1.9 percent year-on-year decline, the best reading since early summer when the removal of Wal-Mart from Redbook's sample corresponded with a steep move lower in the report's readings.
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp fid=437739&cust=mam&year=2009#top
Re: Looking at all the data this am I cannot make a decision YET
The most important data is the GS 'book' showing how they have positioned themselves for options expiration next week.
Re: "Astounded" by Goldman's Upgrade: Banks "Heading Into ...
lessmore,
On our conf call a couple minutes ago, I wasn't "angry" at GS but I was clearly skeptical. I said that right after Thursday's smashing of the Financials because of CIT, we discover that GS is into CIT bonds for $1 billion, and they'll probably take the stock at these levels in lieu of the debt paper, so when better to pump the banks, pump speculation in oil and precious metals? I said they'd do it until they blew off or got short a billion dollars worth of CIT stock.
Not very pretty, but that's life on Wall Street.
Cara 100 Update
AMZN - shares raised to $95 at Friedman, Billings Ramsey. Estimates also raised, to reflect currency gains and higher market share. Market Perform rating.
BRCM - estimates, target boosted at UBS. Estimates were increased through 2010. Company seeing higher wireless and cellular baseband demand. Neutral rating and new $29.50 price target.
INTC - estimates boosted at Morgan Stanley through 2010. Seeing better channel checks in servers and positive trends in the Asia supply chain and back-to-school sales. Overweight rating and $24 price target.
MCD - price target, estimates raised at Barclays. Shares now seen reaching $69. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates lifted to $3.88 and $4.31, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.
PG - target, estimates boosted at Barclays to $64 from $60. 2010 EPS estimate increased to $4.09 from $3.61, maintain 2010 at $3.93. Reiterate Overweight rating.
Re: "Astounded" by Goldman's Upgrade: Banks "Heading Into ...
Bill,
I think skeptical is good.
CS revises Q3 earnings estimates of Big Pharma
Major Pharmaceuticals MARKET WEIGHT C. Arnold
3Q 2009 Earnings Preview - Revising Estimates
• Pricing as tailwinds, volumes as headwinds and currency not as bad. Sector earnings are down both sequentially and year-over-year. The strong international sales base for our companies benefit from the weakening US dollar, but currency is still a headwind on a year-over-year basis. Aggressive price increases also provide support but US volume losses due generic competition and economic sensitivity are notable.
• PFE's earnings decline expected, but WYE acquisition has investors focused on the future. Pfizer brands are under pressure as expected, illuminating the strategic importance of the Wyeth deal. Cost saving efforts will be closely watched as they portend synergy potential.
• ABT and BMY should provide earnings growth. As exceptions to their peers, both ABT and BMY should continue to produce strong year-over-year earnings growth led by their blockbusters Humira and Abilify, respectively.
• New products and pipeline the focus for JNJ, LLY, and MRK. 3Q 09 performance will matter for JNJ, LLY and MRK, but focus on the initial success recently approved products have obtained, as well as updates on key pipeline products.
• SGP and WYE report for the last time. Earnings for SGP and WYE will be overshadowed by their impending acquisitions. Earnings for both should be relatively flat compared to 3Q 08 but the pipeline and diversity they bring to MRK and PFE, respectively, are why we have been positive on both deals.
• Model updates. In advance of 3Q 09 earnings; we have fine-tuned our company and market models, resulting in the following EPS changes, which are reflected in our new estimates in this note. Specific details behind these changes are provided in company sections:
• ABT: 2009 from $3.65 to $3.67, 2010 from $4.01 to $4.06.
• BMY: 2009 from $1.97 to $1.98, 2010 from $2.23 to $2.22.
• JNJ: 2009 remains at $4.52, 2010 from $4.77 to $4.80.
• LLY: 2009 from $4.22 to $4.27, 2010 from $4.34 to $4.58, mainly due to the incorporation of their $1 billion cost savings program.
• MRK: 2009 from $3.21 to $3.23, 2010 from $3.42 to $3.40.
• PFE: 2009 remains at $1.99, 2010 from $2.20 to $2.23.
• SGP: 2009 from $1.83 to $1.82, 2010 from $2.03 to $2.02.
• WYE: 2009 from $3.57 to $3.62, 2010 from $3.41 to $3.42.
Designer bear trap
This one was not off the shelf. They hired a boy/girl team from MIT/Harvard to put one together this summer, and it's working damned well.
Re: Designer bear trap
Yeh, SPY has cleared all 20/50/200 MA's on the 60/15 min. charts. That's definitely not bearish.
Re: CS revises Q3 earnings estimates of Big Pharma
Big Pharma is also re-orging at every level. I have many friends who are PharmD working in industry at J&J, BMY, etc. Many cutbacks on cost and people, but not wreckless cuts, good cuts.
This should also help both long and short term. Drug companies are still making good cheese. Maybe not as much vs the 80s 90s, but still the most secure/best game in town for a job or stability.
Back to where we were before the sell-off/ Non-event for J6P
Let's say you check the indexes every few days. A quick glance will have you reaching to buy the office cappuccinos this morning.
FLOORED - a new trader's movie - may be of interest....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UXomMnQKT4
Was fiddling around with the upper trend line for a possible new
upper trendline (in red) creating a descending broadening wedge...
http://thepatternsite.com/dbw.html
...and it appears to be holding. Waiting and watching with SPXU. Interesting how it gapped to avoid resistance.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
NKE - Downgraded to Hold @ McAdams Wright Ragen
GLD volume
We've done a full day's trading volume - a big day's volume - in GLD in just 45 minutes this morning. Now +23.
The dollar is a few points away from its year low.
In SPXU @ 45.25
Aggressive short of SPY. 5 min chart shows descending MACDh, but wary that it could be giving false signals. If the trend channel drawn above doesn't hold then I'll be out for the week.
Re: In SPXU @ 45.25/ A churnin' urn of burnin' funk
Careful, man. He has yet to get to the napalm bomb.
That's one ugly Y/Y chart in employment
http://seekingalpha.com/article/165073-putting-job...
Yeh 2nd, either the trend holds or the MM's have begun something new, in which case I'll call it a week.
Be Prepared for a 10-20% Pullback: Chief Investor
Stocks opened higher Tuesday after rebounding strongly on Monday, despite concerns persisting over the potential for a market pullback. Thomas McManus, CIO of Wells Fargo Advisors, shared his investing insights.
“The economic [recovery] shape is more of a letter 'V' in Asia, 'L' in Europe and 'U' in the U.S,” McManus told CNBC. “We’re going to see gradual improvement, but I think it’s going to be drawn-out and I think it could be bumpy.”
McManus said GDP growth for one or two quarters out of the next six is expected to be under 1 percent, which could scare equity investors and likely cause a market correction.
“Short-term, you should be prepared for a 10 to 20 percent pullback,” he said. “But longer-term, it makes sense to pursue growth over value and a dividend growth strategy—not necessarily for dividend yield. Buy companies that have the ability to sustain a dividend during difficult times and the ability to grow it at a steady rate over time.”
McManus suggested the energy, consumer staples, and utilities sectors. He added that some of the cyclical sectors “may be a little bit ahead of themselves.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33182405
keep an eye on IAG. no overhead resistance after $15.86
No position in anything at this second.
Taking TYP/FXP for a spin>>12.83/9.29
...
Daytrader small float
special in FONR after earnings. Below $4
tse
if that rising wedge is valid, the backtest would get shorted around here you would think?
So does this qualify as the breakout for gold Bill?
Almost a full $10 past the previous high, strong volume, GDX up 7.5%, though hasn't broken out.
dollar at year low
The buck is back to its year low it reached previously on 9/23. I'm betting we've reached support, at least for a time, so I sold the gold I bought last night. It might move up more from here, but I'm thinking the buck might just rally off the bottom here so I'm going to play it safe.
If I were braver I'd short SPX here. But I'm not that brave...
Taking a turn in the TZA convertible as well>>12.05
...
RGLD
Coverd the (5) 40 NOV puts sold at 1.55 the other day for .69. With gold ramping I thought it best to cover here and not leave exposure to me.
I still am running under the assumption that gold will weaken into mid to later Oct, but that is looking wrong now. The overnight news of secret dollar talks and oil certainly came from left field to propel gold to all time highs.
So far the decision to keep core gold positions and not trade due to seasonal strength has paid off. Look for this trend to continue till Jan/Feb period.
Long CEF, GTU, TRE
Also selling some CLF and others into strength and looking to short on a failure high of SP.
Volume Volume Volume
Outside of Gold and miners, check out:
BAC 48M traded
JPM 11m
GS 3M
Goog 608,000 (not typo)
AAPL 5.8M
SU 2M
CSCO 10M
AMZN 1.9m
FSLR 690,000 (not typo)
BMY 2M
list goes on and on. this is another light vol rally, besides gold.
Re: Volume Volume Volume
I hear what you're saying, but hasn't the whole rally from March been on light volume?
Re: tse
bearish divergences abound in the 5 min. I'm waiting to see MACDh bars in 15 min. chart drop. Someone's squeezing.
SLW is mirroring SPY's bearish divergence. Someone out to smash the goldbugs?
T-Bill Interest Rate at 0.075%
Gold up, T-Bill interest rate down, low volume
Re: Taking a turn in the TZA convertible as well>>12.05/OFF11.99
...
Re: Taking TYP/FXP for a spin>>12.83/9.29>>OFF 12.59/9.23
...
Steamroller Blues>>Napalm bomb guaranteed to blow your mind
JT's cranking it up.
Advance/Decline
I would not even consider shorting today just off the ad line 2634 to 340, tough odds although things happen.
The only hope the bears have today is a small trend line coming off the top at 1080 may offer slight resisitance but that is giving way ever so slight now. I would only consider a short based on the failure of 1080 high and would not gamble here we should know in a few days. Just selling some equity strength only.
Re: Volume Volume Volume
TOF today's rally has been mostly a USD phenomenon, at least according to my observation. When we have a day where the buck is steady, or goes up, and SPX rallies, then that will be something else entirely.
So perhaps NYU's observation that volume is light confirms that this is less a rally on "the merits" and more just a bunch of computers moving stocks around because the buck has gone down.
This is an important point because, if the buck rallies, those same computers can sell just as quickly as they have bought.
GS
looking a little weak today, relatively speaking.
Banco Santander Brasil - BSBR - IPO
Leading Brazilian full-service bank Banco Santander Brasil will start trading tomorrow (wed)
Banco Santander Brasil, the fourth largest bank in Brazil, announced terms for its IPO on Monday. The Sao Paulo, Brazil-based company plans to raise $6.8 billion by offering 525,000,000 units (in the form of units and ADRs, whereby 1 unit equals 1 ADR) at a price range of $12.19 to $13.85. Each unit represents 55 shares of common stock and 50 shares of preferred stock. At the mid-point of the proposed range, Banco Santander Brasil will command a market value of $49 billion. Banco Santander Brasil, which was founded in 2006 and booked $15.1 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol BSBR, and on Brazil's BOVESPA Exchange under the symbol SANB11. Santander Investment, Credit Suisse, and BofA Merrill Lynch are the lead underwriters on the deal, which is expected to price on October 6 for trading on October 7.
http://www.renaissancecapital.com/ipohome/news/Lea...
View IPO Profile: BSBR Banco Santander Br BSBR $12.45-$14.15 525.0 mil Santander Investment
inverse head & shoulders on gold?
Can anyone help me understand an inverse head & shoulders at the top of a trend? Bill said this morning:
"The plot thickens as a huge inverse head and shoulders formation gives gold bugs confidence that ultimately the fiscal and monetary recklessness of the US government spending spree will cause precious metals to go vertical."
I accept that the fiscal and monetary recklessness of the US government will lead to higher moves in precious metals in the long term.
I have never seen an inverse head & shoulders break out at the top of a trend in the last four years and am curious if anyone else has ever seen such a breakout.
I thought an inverse head & shoulders was valid only at the bottom of a trend.
I am not trying to cause a ruckus here: just trying to understand chart patterns.
Re: Banco Santander Brasil - BSBR - IPO
thanks VB. I was speculating on whether the IPO is to help Brazilian operations or to shore up the Spanish parent bank's balance sheet in light of all the unsold housing on its book, which it allegedly refuses to write down or write off.
Re: inverse head & shoulders on gold?
MG : "I am not trying to cause a ruckus here"
I dunno - sounds like you're really trying to cause a ruckus here MG...
:)
This guy is always good to go for further understanding:
http://thepatternsite.com/hsb.html
CEF and Gold
I took off my CEF @13.66. This seems like blow of top stuff in gold. Maybe early but will take my 5% today.
AUY
Given the rise of the gold price to new all time highs today, I'd like to highlight Yamana, which is one of my favorite core holdings in gold miners. This morning it updated production guidance and came in ahead of many analysts' expectations. I read a good summary and analysis of their news release at http://www.goldalert.com, where it also mentions market speculation that the company may be looking for a suitor. I think Yamana, along with many other gold miners who offer leverage to the gold price, will continue to outperform due to the government's insistence on trying to prevent deflation at all costs. The dollar is close to new 52 week lows, and the willingness of our govt to debase the currency should continue to benefit gold, in my opinion.
Re: inverse head & shoulders on gold?
MG
No ruckus , good question. Do these two charts from "MCHUGH’S DAILY MARKET BRIEFING" help at all?
some rumbles over at MTXX.... rumors about FDA talks...
anyway, just one for to watch for the scream... was posted about 1 hr. ago elsewhere )..
Beta
Looks like beta ain't doing so well today, relatively...most of the smaller high beta names I follow are at today's lows.
Re: In SPXU @ 45.25/ out for 1% loss
SPY bouncing off 20ma on 5 min. chart. Not going to wait to see how high it can go. My daytrading limit is 0 once again. I've got new account paperwork to hand in before I leave and an essay to write up before Friday, so I can wait until the 26th before trading again. Have fun. It's aperitif time...
Re: inverse head & shoulders on gold?
The charts are helpful because they show the pattern clearly on a short-term chart but when you look at the pattern on a ten or twenty year chart, the pattern is at the top of a nine-year trend up in gold. I have never seen an inverse H & S pattern at the top of a trend and therefore do not trust it. I have seen plenty of inverse H & S patterns at the bottom of a trend and "inverse" usually means a trend reversal at a major bottom. When this pattern appears at the top, it throws me off. I was hoping someone had seen such a pattern at the top that took the market to a higher level. The word "inverse" would have more meaning if the pattern were at the bottom of a major trend and not at thet top. To me, inverse doesn't mean going higher; it means the opposite.
CARA 100 - BVN
BVN +3.00 at 37.39 to new 52 week high.
I think that breaks out because of week dollar.
I'm thinking to short it. Any advised?
Thanks
Re: inverse head & shoulders on gold?
Suppose it all depends on your timeframe, going back to the $453 low in 1980 you could say a right shoulder was formed with a neckline at 728. That neckline was tested last year and the price objective has been 1206 all along perhaps. This is yet another point of view. No one can say for sure.
TIF @ 40.83 +2.32
Oct 6 (Reuters) - Citigroup initiated coverage of jeweler Tiffany & Co (TIF.N) with a "buy" rating and a $50 price target, citing an expected return to sustained positive same-store sales in the fourth quarter.
Falling costs of diamonds, platinum and silver should help gross margins in the fourth quarter and drive a 100 to 200 basis points expansion over the next 12 months, Citigroup analyst Kimberly Greenberger wrote in a research note.
"We believe TIF willbenefit from market share gains given capacity withdrawal (liquidations/storeclosures) beginning in 4Q09 as consumer spending stabilizes," the analyst wrote.
Affordably priced jeweler Zale Corp (ZLC.N) has been closing stores and liquidating some inventory in its bid to combat the economic slump, while others like Finlay Enterprises (FNLQE.OB) have filed for bankruptcy protection.
"We estimate at least 5 percent of the $60 billion U.S. jewelry market will be up for grabs in 2010. In our view, TIF can capture at least 2 percent of this $3 billion slice over time given its strong brand recognition and trust, driving at least 5 to 6 percent U.S. store sales growth," she said.
Greenberger also sees a compelling growth opportunity for the high-end jeweler, compared with its peers, for expansion in the Americas, Europe and Asia, excluding Japan.
Shares of Tiffany closed at $38.51 Monday on the New York Stock Exchange.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNBNG...
I just bought 1 contract of 43 Nov put @ 3.5.
The earning estimate for this quarter 10/2009 is 0.23. Does it justify for this price?
Vad's Book
Has paid for itself and then some...highly recommended
Now if the Psychology books can do the same...
Re: inverse head & shoulders on gold?
Agreed, you don't normally call it a HS continuation pattern at the top. I see it more as a HS pattern within a symmetrical triangle continuation pattern.
But as others have said its all relative to time frames, open to interpretation and there is no single right answer. We still need to look at support / resistance levels and volume.
gold here
this has the look of 2 potentials in gold:
1. blow off top,
2. the ongoing grind higher in gold towards $1200
what is encouraging about the current run up in gold, is that there was no shortage of people thinking gold would go nowhere prior to the initial leg-up, then once it started no shortage of people saying to sell just before or at $1000, then the same flux of people saying a pull back well below $1000.
the recent thrust in gold came at at time when it appeared the USD was oversold and due for a rally, the broad markets were over-hyped and due to return back to planet earth.
what i find concerning for the gold miner investors, as usual is the suspect volume across the entire sector for this entire move. while good in one sense we are still well well behind the highs of last year in spite of a much higher gold price, Barrick continues to do more obsfucating than actual gold mining about its exotic hedging, and the JR's are at best moving on momentum but little else.
there are many nervous gold investors ready to sell if gold does not go straight up to $1200 in short order, as we have noted many times, the run up would likley make it as difficult as possible for most people, even gold bugs.
things never move as we would expect them too. i dont think for a moment a move above $1050 or $1060 will cause a tidal shift. there is a constant myth of money ready to pour into gold or of short covering that will do nothing but cloud our judgements.
the talk of the US dollar to collapse as usual is nonsense. a decline yes, but not some falling out of the sky as is constantly discussed. the talk of Oil being sold in other currencies is equally nonsense and nothing but propaganda. we have heard about what Iran and others want to do for years, its BS and its meant to mislead you. remember that everytime you see yet another articlea bout how iran could have a bomb within x number of years. they have been saying it for a decade. its nonsense and it would only mean they join the list of many other states that have a bomb.
can anyone remember the name of that pricey European service that was circulating their so-called secret report (LEAP 2020 or something?)that claimed the US would default on their debt this fall? yes, they are nowhere to be found now as this sort of fatalist nonsense that people pay big money for never came true. im continually amazed that people will earn a good living on selling nonsense advice to people that never makes them money.
good luck gang, im watching volume in the miners like a hawk, if me moving into the lower range towards the close today i am out. if we close strong, im in it to win it.
Re: Vad's Book/ Short version=Opinionless Trading
Yeah, it was probably worth a few allegorical blows to the back of the head with the 2x4 and the rusty nails.
I haven't made much money, if any, this summer.
On the other hand, I haven't lost much, if any.
Opening position QID $23.2x
Small position. Looking to see if USD is supported or trashed going into close.
EDIT: Nibbled on Jan $26 Call option as well. less capital on the table.
buck is showing signs of life
The buck is rallying off its year low. Oil, SPX, gold dutifully pulling back.
Reloaded some of my shorts; GE, JWN, COF, URE.
Re: CEF and Gold
I won't challenge anybody taking their profit, Pillzilla, but for the record I'll put in my opinion that this isn't a blow-off top in gold.
dr.cosa hints at part of my reasoning when he notes that the juniors are nowhere near where they were last year when gold was lower. Seems to me that action in the juniors is a key characteristic of tops. I know it's not as formulaic as that, (hence why Bill calls it a dance), but I just can't see it as a blow-off top in the absence of that kind of action. Plus I think a blow-off will be WAY more dramatic and will only come if the masses get excited about record prices.
I'll reveal some of my other bias, though ... I've been seeing the 3-yr. chart on gold as an inverse head and shoulders. I acknowledge the interesting debate stimulated here today by MG about whether that pattern is appropriate away from a bottom, but whatever we call it, I've been playing my cards with a belief in $1200.
As you know - this is just another amateur opinion. In this dance, I've both tango-ed and tripped.
Value of gold
I plotted the value of gold in USD, Euros, Aussie Dollars and Reais since jan 2009. Gold bugs may hate this, but while gold is up in the USD and Euros, it is down significantly in the other currencies this year. Everything is relative. We are back to the "illusion of gold and market gains in the U.S".
Chart: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/Sst9q5ocqeI/...
Now, housing has gone down in the U.S, imagine the real losses.
shorted some more FCX
The copper price made an attempt today to rise to its previous high of $2.80 but fell back. The upwards momentum of FCX seems to have waned for today. I have just shorted a little more FCX at $69.58.
Boy, am I glad that I learned from 2nd_ave to use small position sizes... With FCX, for example, instead of opening one large short position at $65.8 and then watching in pain as FCX rises, small position sizes allowed me to happily watch FCX rise and open small shorts on the way up, thereby giving me a single reasonable-sized short but at much better (higher) prices for FCX.
Re: inverse head & shoulders on gold?
MG
All fair and reasonable thoughts and ideas. That said, given the decision making coming from Wash. D.C. the precious metals are likely all headed MUCH higher.
Prepare for a move that hasn't been seen in a very long time. Let your winners run and cut your losers short.
Best wishes to everyone. It's getting interesting folks.
take care all
I've seen it all.....
Yahoo Finance Current headline:
"Wall Street Up on Australia Rate Hike...."
Sheesh, that's a stretch if I've ever heard one. What a joke!
REITs turned negative...
This is the first time I see such a discrepancy: DOW is +1% and REITs are down 0.8%! What is driving the market today? I haven't had the time to read up today on what is going on, but after glancing at the chart of $USD and of gold I would guess it is the commodities driving the market up.
Re: I've seen it all.....
BillySundance ,Part of same story from Yahoo Finance..
"The dollar fell Tuesday towards year lows against the euro and the yen after a report that Arab states and other countries were contemplating an end to the U.S. currency's role in the pricing oil."
http://tinyurl.com/y9mqvvo
Its amazing what old stories and half stories are circulating.
Learned a lesson or two today
This morning I opened a position in BGZ thinking that SPY would close the gap from $105.60. Rather than open up a position when the SPY was at $105.5 I opened my position when it was at $105.1 and on its way up, then continued adding until I was "all in" at what was a $21.52 average on BGZ, having averaged in all the way to $21.02. The market finally cracked and I was able to sell at $21.70ish average, making me a whopping 1% on my trade.
The lesson I learned is to average in slowly, and more importantly, wait for my price point. I didn't do that and got antsy when it was time to sell, selling at a price lower than I could have if I didn't go through the annoyance (agony) of watching my trade go against me...
Majority who bought SPY, QQQQ after open are now red
Let's see if they protect the USD or this "rally"
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
In Defense of Capitalism: a True Love Story
In the 1980s, in Soviet Russia, a few times a year, my class walked to a movie theater, where we were shown a documentary. Attendance was mandatory. The documentaries were different but the themes were the same: to the accompaniment of patriotic music, we learned about the righteousness of socialism, the greatness of Mother Russia, and the intelligence and foresight of our great leaders. To demonstrate how good we had it, we were shown images of “decaying” American capitalism. Of course, capitalism did not get the benefit of patriotic music as we were shown the poverty-stricken homeless, the KKK burning crosses and lynching blacks, and Russia-hating capitalists being poisoned by hamburgers (of course, later I learned this part about hamburgers was not a complete lie).
Past weekend Americans voluntarily spent a few million dollars to see a documentary by Michael Moore – Capitalism: the Love Story. But don’t kid yourself, this piece of work is not a documentary, it lacks objectivity and has no intention of seeking the truth. It is anti-American and anti-capitalist propaganda. Mr. Moore is a talented propagandist; in Soviet Russia this documentary would have gotten him a medal and elevated him into a state hero.
A successful propaganda initiative has to have three elements: (1) to influence attitudes, instead of providing information, (2) to selectively present facts (i.e., lying by omission) to achieve a certain synthesis, and (3) to get an emotional rather than a rational response.
There is little information in this movie. Moore spends the bulk of the film going through our country’s trash and presenting it as the main course. For instance, a corrupt judge sentences innocent teenagers to spend months at a privately owned (i.e., for-profit, nongovernmental) youth-correction facility, while the judge is getting kickbacks from the facility owners. Moore interviews these poor teenagers, and we feel bad for them, as we should. We feel angry. Moore directs this anger towards capitalism (i.e., private enterprise): it is rotten and corrupt. Of course, the fact that corruption and bribery are the rare exception in the US, not the rule (as in Russia), is never mentioned.
Really, if you want to make a successful propaganda movie, you must evoke emotion and rightly or wrongly direct it at your subject of hate – in Moore’s case, capitalism. Moore shows families being evicted from their houses, in which some of them have lived for twenty years, and some of them have kids. Again, we feel bad for these people, we feel their pain, and we want to help. We are angry. That’s what Moore wants. But should we be angry at the bank that has given these people a loan? Or perhaps we should accept the fact that some people will make bad financial decisions, and they’ll pay a price. It is the easiest thing to blame a bank, or capitalism – they are not very popular today.
But let’s do the impossible, let’s humanize a bank. Let’s say you and I and a few friends put our life savings together and start a bank. We take deposits and make loans. Should we “forgive” a loan on a house to a person who overextended, made bad financial choices, or found himself facing hardship and unable to earn his way out of it? If we do enough of this “forgiving” we’ll go bankrupt, our kids won’t go to college, and we’ll need to ask someone else to “forgive” us for the loans on our houses, credit cards, etc. I am not even mentioning our depositors losing their money (and the FDIC – the taxpayer – bailing them out) and our employees losing their jobs.
So the heartless bank – you and I and a few friends – have to make a choice between sacrificing the well-being of our families for the sake of strangers. What would you do? See, this point is too rational and lacks the sensationalism of good propaganda; and thus Mr. Moore, who I am sure thought of it, omitted it.
Moore attacks BofA for not resorting to charity and not extending a loan to a factory in Michigan, even after BofA received TARP money. The same logic I just went through applies to the huge, unpopular BofA. Should BofA have thrown away money in a loan to the factory, knowing that the factory would not be able to repay it? Is this not what got us into the present problem in the first place?
Banks and Wall Street in general played a role in today’s crisis, but they were just one of many responsible players: Consumers in pursuit of keeping up with the Joneses overextended themselves (with the exception of cases of outright fraud, no one was forced to buy a bigger house). Rating agencies were getting paid by the customers they were rating. The Federal Reserve kept rates at very low levels for too long, politicians pressured lending at any cost, regulators were not regulating – and the list goes on. Vilifying banks as the only culprit is intellectually dishonest and a very myopic way to look at this complex problem, and Mr. Moore does just that!
Moore brought a brigade of priests to proclaim: “Capitalism is evil, immoral”; “Jesus doesn’t like the rich”; “the rich will have a hard time getting into heaven.” Two employees from a factory, talking on camera, made a really important point about capitalism. They said something along the lines of, “Maybe we should start a cooperative or something, but no, we cannot; we don’t have the money, we are not capitalists.”
Ayn Rand said it well in Atlas Shrugged: “But you say that money is made by the strong at the expense of the weak? What strength do you mean? It is not the strength of guns or muscles. Wealth is the product of man's capacity to think. Then is money made by the man who invents a motor at the expense of those who did not invent it? Is money made by the intelligent at the expense of the fools? By the able at the expense of the incompetent? By the ambitious at the expense of the lazy?”
Moore neglects to admit that capitalism has brought people out of poverty and socialism sunk them there. He blames rising health-care costs on HMOs, though HMOs are just a pass-through vehicle between payers and service providers. He accuses capitalism as a system that “allows getting away with paying so little.”
He offers no alternative to our “broken” capitalism system other than let’s have “democracy.” This is laughable, as democracy is not a market system, it is a political system. What he wants is a command-based economy – the Soviet Russia that failed so miserably. He wants Mr. Mouch from Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged, a mediocre bureaucrat who failed at everything in his life, to be put in charge of Mr. Moore’s version of a “democratic” economy (still not sure what that means). Mr. Mouch decided how much everyone produced, at what prices goods were sold, and what “fair” wages everyone got paid. In the end, despite sacrifice after sacrifice, Mr. Mouch’s economy collapses. Mr. Mouch’s visible “fair” hand fails to accomplish what the invisible “impartial” hand of the free market accomplishes so effortlessly.
Mr. Moore’s propaganda flick ends with pictures of the aftermath of hurricane Katrina. The images are powerful, full of emotion, and again in his final misdirection Moore manages to blame it on capitalism.
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson
vitaliy @ usa.net
tombstone dojis
At current prices, I'm seeing a whole lot of tombstone dojis.
SLW, GG, BTU, XHB, USO
I'm not saying the rally is over, but - its not looking super strong as we near end of day.
Of course if the buck doesn't keep moving either sideways or up, they could all go right back up again.
sold a little SRS
I just sold at $10.31 the shares of SRS I purchased yesterday at $10.11. The drop in the market over the past half hour might be a little overdone intraday, we might easily see SRS at $10.11 again, in which case I'll prepare to buy back these shares.
Re: Learned a lesson or two today/Conviction-Patience-Psychology
tof- I've had the same 'problem' recently. Having been rewarded for cutting losses quickly has caused me to exit ultrashorts (early) at minor losses, rather than having the conviction/patience to let them play out- I normally enter on what appear (at the time) to be extremes...only to find the positions continue to even greater extremes. And as soon as the positions move more than a few pennies/nickles beyond my original projections, I exit.
I know exactly what you mean by "annoyance (agony)."
We all know by now that "it's all psychology." I would go further and say "It's 90% [our own] psychology, and 10% the psychology of the market." Understanding one's own psychology is WAY more important than understanding the psychology of the market.
Exhaustion Gap
This sure as heck looks like a giant exhaustion gap on S&P and Russell 2000. We went right up to the gaps that were created between last Wednesdays close/Thursdays Open, closed the gaps and then the distribution began and is continuing. Weakest bears were cleansed on the gap up and smart money began unloading.
This market has been upgraded to the point of ridiculousness in the last few weeks - nothing left to upgrade. I think we close red across the board today - don't think anyone will want to fight this tape.
Re: Value of gold
I think it is also down marginally YTD against the Canadian dollar too.
Re: Learned a lesson or two today/Conviction-Patience-Psychology
I couldn't agree with you more 2nd...I knew that the $105.60 point would be tested and I also had a feeling that the $104.85 resistance level would be tested after the first setback today. My patience failed me, although I was able to open a position in SSO at $33.78 when SPY was at $104.85. I just sold that for a couple $100. It is all about understanding your own level of patience though.
ACAS
bought some at $2.78
"Empire of Illusion"
So much of what passes for economic news and opinion seems to fit the title of this book.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Once you're aware of how thoroughly blanderized & infantilized our culture has become, it's all too easy to succumb to despair or cynicism. And with good cause!"
Chris Hedges, "Empire of Illusion"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't plan to read this one, I heard the author on the Book Channel, read the reviews at Amazon.com and see he is citing many of the things I wrote my representatives about over the past 30 years (without success). The loss of manufacturing, the sad state of what passes for entertainment, and a couple of other topics.
Whether it's "Capitalism, a Love Affair", "The Biggest Loser", "America's Got Talent", The CNBC Cheerleaders, or network news — we seem to be awash in rants, glitz and mediocrity.
Perhaps the following explains why my letters on such topics went nowhere...
Heard on Jay Leno last night:
A quote from some congressman, "If you think education is expensive... try ignorancy."
I love it :-)
bought back SRS
Now it seems to me that the bounce in the market after the recent drop is over, and so I bought back at $10.29 the shares of SRS I sold a little while ago $10.31. I think this is a great example of bad trading done out of my fear of being wrong, as I cannot part with a position I like for the fear of missing out on it rising. I'll try to be more disciplined next time...
Re: Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
Oh Boy. If hb&b has J Cramer and the army known as cnbc and many other "news" outlets, why can we have Michael Moore? It's not like News isnt slanted and manipulated. And um, banks are just as much to blame as the over zealous home buyers with no money.
That didnt seem like an objective review, more an emotional one. I'll refrain from additional comment since i haven't seen it myself. (I'm trying to stay in context.)
Re: Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
Ah Vitaliy, if only we had capitalism. Instead we have socialism for the bankers and well-connected, and capitalism for the middle class. I call Reductio Ad Absurdum on Mr. Katsenelson.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum
Re: Learned a lesson or two today/Conviction-Patience-Psychology
Duplicate.
Re: Learned a lesson or two today/Conviction-Patience-Psychology
Exactly. I had a mental image of the market moving +200 points (I've been posting steamroller warnings, for crying out loud), yet I opened shorts when it stalled at +115.
Re: bought back SRS/ What about $8?
David- Let's say the indexes close at the high. Let's say it gaps up again tomorrow. The tenacity of shorts almost guarantees a short-term floor under the market right now.
I'll go out on a limb and say you might be able to buy SRS with an 8-handle.
Whether or not that scenario holds, does it make sense for you to go out on any kind of counter-trend limb right now for longer than a day?
Where's Dr Cosa?
Love to hear what he makes of this rally, which seems to be based on an article in the English paper, "The Independent", claiming that there have been secret meetings between the Saudis, the French, the Russians, and other countries to price oil in euros.
Re: Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
I agree with NYUGrad - I will see the movie and form my own opinion. I don't think even Michael Moore claims his movies are "documentaries" - they are more of a "Mockumentary" and meant to entertain as much as inform and hopefully challenge the status quo a bit. He takes a few big players to task who should be taken to task and we should thank him for that - perhaps people will be encouraged to look into Goldman Sachs and their ilk more closely. Katsenelsons frequent citing of Ayn Rand makes it clear where he is coming from.
YUM up 5% yest. Reports AH. flat day. non-remarkable vol
smells fishy to me.
Re: bought back SRS/ What about $8?
You are right, 2nd_ave. I should have stayed with my initial idea of selling SRS at $10.31 after a sharp spike up in SRS. My gut feeling of such a spike up being unsustainable turned out to be correct.
If SRS comes back to the 8-handle, then I'll buy back the shares I sold at $8.80 when $USD has collapsed to $76 and I thought it would go much lower. Naturally, $USD rebounded and SRS shot up, without me being able to buy those shares back.
Re: Value of gold
Added CAD, barely... +2.2%: Updated chart: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/SsuairOVe9I/...
SDR Rebalance to 50% GOLD
From Jesse's blog today:
"Max Keiser is hearing that the target composition will be weighted to 50 percent gold, in a return to a system more in keeping with the original Bretton Woods agreement. This is most likely the position being taken by France, China and Russia. The US and UK are adamantly opposed and will fight a delaying game with 2020 as a target for a phased in approach that continues to favor the dollar."
KAIMU: Hundreds of billions in QE through SDRs from the IMF may not be weighted 44% USD as it is now but more like 50% Gold (from Fort Knox?!) by next year. Can't print gold. What's the U.S. to do? Defund the IMF and become isolationist or pay up?!
Aussie central bank tightened by 250 basis points today. Others will follow. USD is under pressure here. Guarding my gold.
Re: Vad's Book/ Short version=Opinionless Trading
But it has been fun, hasn't it?
REITs down today for a reason
I think REITs are down today for a reason. If the breakout in gold is signaling inflation, then Fed will tighten sooner than people were thinking so far, which will increase the interest rate on mortgages and will put downward pressure on the real estate. So we might have just had a paradigm shift today, returning back to where we were in 2006-2008, when fears of inflation were predominant and each increase in gold resulted in a drop off in real estate stocks (unlike last year, when a drop in $USD signaled an easing of risk aversion in the markets, channeling more money into the risky real estate assets).
Fear, emotion and Greed !
...........are running this market.
Watching and trading an ETF, XFN:T which holds all of the major banks and financial's , like MFC:T, we saw swings that defy emotion, logic and reason.
RIM is going down the tube ? Don't think so. It's a $60 CDN stock that trades at $70 CDN.
Sadly, there is money to be made, following Vad's emotionless trading.
If gold is bouncing higher, is a downward market correction inevitable ?
note to Les; let's start the weekend really early !
Re: REITs down today for a reason
Hasn't the FED been clear that they are definitely on hold for the time being with respect to rates via FED minutes reporting?
Re: REITs down today for a reason
David,
Also read a story in Reuters today. That said Apartment vacancy was at a 20 year high. With foreclosure's at a peak. I guess everyone is living with Mom. Anyway that story rightly or wrongly gave me a little conviction in holding SRS on the market breakout and the SRS doldrums. Overall I think SRS held up nicely considering the sentiment of the market today.
Bob
Re: Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
Well, I would say they are not documentaries, but I believe that is the category in which he won his award for Fahrenheit, if I'm not mistaken. So I guess he sees them as such.
HYG is in red...
HYG has been well correlated with S&P during the last 7 months. It is in the red today. Seeing that the market indexes made a lower high on the daily charts today, I would have opened some shorts EOD if I hadn't opened them already today at higher prices (shorted FCX at $69.58 after noticing that the price of copper failed to break above the recent high).
Re: Fear, emotion and Greed !
"Sadly"?
I am not sure I want to know... LOL
Re: Fear, emotion and Greed !
Sadly ? perhaps at one time people invested in a company, like RIM because they believed in it's future. Now we trade prices.
So here we sit with hi-speed connections and computers that could run a small town, I have 2. running on Linux.
My only hope is listening to guys like Bill. And of course, Vad.
Re: REITs down today for a reason
Telestar3d, here is a link to the interview that Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, gave yesterday:
http://tinyurl.com/ybl5y36
Richard admits that the Fed is clueless about what will happen 6 months down the road. Here is a quote from the transcription of his interview:
"So I expect that the growth coming forward after a couple of quarters of positive growth, again this is sort of guesswork. Forecasting as you know is created to make as astrology look respectable as John Kenneth Galbraith once said, but probably two quarters of 2 percent plus growth or maybe a little more than that and then the real issue is what ensues in 2010?"
However, if inflation does arise, Richard said that they have all the mechanisms in place to start withdrawing the liquidity and they are prepared to do it as soon as they see the indications for inflation appearing. A breakout in gold today is a pretty good indicator, which definitely brings Fed closer to acting. Naturally, until the moment they act, they are more concerned about reviving the economy, and to make their job easier they want everyone to *believe* that the current conditions are most conducive to economic growth (by saying that the interest rates will remain low for a while). But then, I think, they will turn on a dime and say, at some point, that the conditions have changed and now it is time to start tightening. Today we moved a little closer to that point.
Re: Fear, emotion and Greed !
I can see where you are coming from of course, as markets are less of a "pricing mechanism" these days... but still, as Bill says, stocks were always sold, not bought - and that means some major market forces were always trading prices... It's not a new phenomena by any means - after all, what did Livermore do 100 years ago if not traded prices?? :)
It's extreme emotions and lack of confidence in the system that cause volatility which in turn makes investing a questionable proposition...
Re: Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
Grym,
Fahrenheit 9/11 may have been submitted in the documentary category, but it won the Palme D'or for best overall picture at Cannes in 2004, as well as best movie in the 2004 Peoples Choice Awards. Also, the film also won four Razzies for its "acting" performances, including George W. Bush winning as Worst Actor and Donald Rumsfeld as Worst Supporting Actor.
Re: Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
I will wait for the DVD but of the reviews I have read and the feedback in general has been lukewarm at best. Make no mistake though having seen many of Moore's prior 'documentaries' it will be propaganda and will have a slant. Vitaliy is right in that the content should be balanced but that wouldn't sell as many tickets. I agree there are many party's to blame in this but blaming the bankster is the path of least resistance. For the record I believe the banking system should be restructured and there is 'no too big to fail' organization anywhere deserving of taxpayer money. Curiously, there is a lot of vitriol aimed at Ayn Rand when this site prides itself on being an individual within a community context.
Re: Vitaliy N. Katsenelson's opinion of MM film
From Wikipedia:
"Fahrenheit 9/11 examines America in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks, particularly the record of the Bush administration and alleged links between the families of George W. Bush and Osama bin Laden. Fahrenheit was awarded the Palme d'Or, the top honor at the Cannes Film Festival; it was the first documentary film to win the prize since 1956.
Moore later announced that Fahrenheit 9/11 would not be in consideration for the 2005 Academy Award for Documentary Feature, but instead for the Academy Award for Best Picture. He stated he wanted the movie to be seen by a few million more people, preferably on television, by election day.
Since November 2 was less than nine months after the film's release, it would be disqualified for the Documentary Oscar.[clarification needed] Moore also said he wanted to be supportive of his "teammates in non-fiction film." However, Fahrenheit received no Oscar nomination for Best Picture. The title of the film alludes to the classic book Fahrenheit 451 about a future totalitarian state in which books are banned; according to the book, paper begins to burn at 451 degrees Fahrenheit. The pre-release subtitle of the film confirms the allusion: "The temperature at which freedom burns." At the box office, Fahrenheit 9/11 remains the highest-grossing documentary of all time, taking in over US$200 million worldwide, including United States box office revenue of almost US$120 million.[4]"
Re: REITs down today for a reason
Thanks David, I do not think that the Fed has any real means of draining what they have laid on us. I have an article that explains this if I find it I will post. I think the Fed is trying to jawbone here and I think Bernanke could care less about a strong dollar.
I also think that they will not start raising rates until the un-employment rate begins to turn down, a ways off IMO.
Appreciate your comments as it is important to know both sides of the argument, but now the surf is up at Makapu and I'm headed out to catch some waves.
a safer strategy for entering on the short side
would be to wait until tomorrow and see if it is a down day. In that case, SPY would make a clear 3rd lower high since the highest close on September 16 at 107.32. The next two lower highs were at 107.07 and at 106.32. Today, SPY closed at 105.51. After going short SPY on a down day tomorrow, one can place a buy to cover stop order at the previous high of $106.32. Pretty simple stuff. So why am I rushing to open more shorts until yet another lower high is confirmed???
California Hotel Foreclosures Triple in Travel Slump
http://bit.ly/I4iWv
I have a friend in this industry as a multiple hotel owner/operator. This industry, although cashflow rich in good times, is all debt based and cash poor. Everything goes back into the business or into expansion/renovation.
I can only imagine how Hotels and other commercial properties will hurt the banks.
Anyone with a wad of cash will be able to play real monopoly all over U.S.A, picking up hotels on the cheap.
Re: bought back SRS/ What about $8?
2nd_ave, let's also not forget that SRS is affected a lot by the "fundamentals," which are the CMBX indexes: http://tinyurl.com/y8r34pc. These indexes closed down today for all tranches and are at the lowest levels since the recent spike up a couple of weeks ago (when SRS did drop to the 8 handle). So I would say that if the CMBX index do not break out to new highs, then SRS will not hit new lows. Moreover, if CMBX indexes break down to the new lows tomorrow, then SRS will likely break out to new highs.
YUM mugged some folks. Went up and right back down
Chart with after hours: http://bit.ly/1XqU6E
Topline wasnt so good. But they beat earnings. prob by simply cutting like crazy.
http://bit.ly/3eoSv
"Yum profit rises but same-store sales slump"
Sales dipped to $2.78 billion from $2.84 billion as same-store sales -- those at outlets open at least a year -- fell 6% in the U.S. and 3% worldwide.
Devolution of the dollar centric world
Robert Fisk, a prominent senior journalist from Britain, wrote a story in the Independent about confidential meetings of our creditors at the IMF meeting in Istanbul... the suppliers of that cold hard cash that fuels New York and London. Our creditors are certainly talking among themselves about how to deal with the US dollar and the behavior of the Fed and Treasury and HB&B. It would be naive to think their denials of such meetings, quickly reported by Reuters, as being honest. Why should they show their cards until they are ready to act?
Some say it' BS.... that the dollar centric system will continue on and on ... which I would term a goldilock's view.
There will be a battle between creditor and debtor for sure and the debtor has the big gun. Question is, will the debtor fess up and admit to his errant ways, and go along with a restructuring of the global payment system or will he go out in a blaze or glory and engulf the world in war, in the name of defending the empire.
This pattern has repeated itself since the days of Rome. Unless there is profound change, we seem to be headed in that direction. Let's hope we run out of money beforehand or find a leader that can promote a dignified realignment
of global relations.... and one that is not controlled by HB&B and corporate elites from New York and London.
Check out journalist Robert Fisk on Wikipedia where you can review his experience and credibility
ISTANBUL/SYDNEY (Reuters) - Big oil producing nations denied a British newspaper report on Tuesday that Gulf Arab states were in secret talks with Russia, China, Japan and France to replace the U.S. dollar with a basket of currencies in trading oil.
The dollar eased in response to the report, which was written by The Independent's Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk and cited unidentified sources in Gulf Arab states and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong.
It said the proposal was for trade in crude oil to move over nine years to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Poll: Obama and the economy
Q. The president's progress with the battered economy has been both praised and criticized. How well are his efforts measuring up with you?
http://js.polls.yahoo.com/quiz/quiziframe.php?poll...
3351930 votes
Re: California Hotel Foreclosures Triple in Travel Slump
interesting.
Now let's ask ourselves why HOT is $32+ per share. It has a 2010EPS target of $0.5, therefore FPE of 64, a revenue per employee of $35,000 (I almost find this hard to believe that's what Reuters reports said)... and even the S&P has 1 year target of $14/share and a sell rating.
You can't say there aren't opportunities in this market.
MM film
I have only managed to sit through one MM film, the gun one, the one that made me feel a little sorry for Chuck Heston. I prefer my infotainment ala John Stewart.
At least he tries for a more balanced - make me understand - approach, although he is coming from the left. Interesting to hear all the different opinions here.
I think MM's best and maybe most truthful work is "Canadian Bacon" starring John Candy and the hilarious deadpan of Rip Torn.... DanR
Viva MM!
Since we don't have a real political left in the US, why not a court jester? - financed by Hollywood, free to be satirical, openly expressing an opinion out of the mainstream. Surely the land of the brave, and home of the free can handle one off-the-wall outspoken critic.
Quotable from today's discourse
"Things never move as we would expect them to." Dr. Cosa.
I just added two more :
“Forecasting is created to make astrology look respectable” John Kenneth Galbraith
"Extreme emotions and lack of confidence in the system cause volatility which in turn makes investing a questionable proposition” Vad
I've made a large bold printout of this and have it posted beside me, in my line of sight. It is soothing to to remind myself of these often.
AT&T folds and will allow IP Telephone on its network ie Skype
http://bit.ly/zIqdl
Excerpts
The largest U.S. telephone company “has taken the steps necessary” so that Apple Inc. can enable the voice-over- Internet applications to run on AT&T’s wireless network, AT&T said today in a statement. Apple will enable the calling method “as soon as possible,” Natalie Kerris, an Apple spokeswoman, said in an interview.
AT&T hasn’t allowed voice-over-Internet calling on the iPhone over its third-generation, or 3G, network, in part to guard against losing revenue to the services, the company told the FCC in an Aug. 21 letter.
Google Voice
The FCC is investigating whether consumers are harmed by exclusive handset deals like the one tying the iPhone to AT&T. The agency also is investigating why Apple didn’t accept Google Inc.’s voice application for the iPhone.
Google Voice lets customers use one phone number to get calls on multiple devices and to access voice mail. Apple told the FCC in an Aug. 21 letter it’s still considering the application. Google Voice wasn’t part of today’s announcement.
Re: Vad's Book/ Short version=Opinionless Trading
As my daughter would say, it's been hella fun!
TCK tock/ Start-stop the clock
I just checked out today's closing price.
On March 6, I purchased TCK around 3 for the 7-year-old, and the intent was to hold through December 31. (MarkW and I both opened 5 positions that day for our [respective] youngest kids, who are the same age, and the bet was on which portfolio closed highest on December 31.)
I sold it a few weeks later around 9.
Is it all psychology? Sometimes it seems that way.
Wall Street "Animal Spirits" Stampede Across the River
Humbled bears in need of a grin today? Here's some photographic poetry from zerohedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wall-street-anima...
Stanford auctioning off stakes in private equity funds
http://tinyurl.com/yeutq84
Smart move or no? I guess it depends on the bidding.
Re: Viva MM!
Hi Jock - He does represent the political left in the U.S. - sad to say. Happy Trading
Chart pattern trader oct 6 vid up
http://bit.ly/j03Ko
Does anyone have experience with chaos formula trading..?
I am convinced that chaos algorithms have donimated the upper echelon trading arms for the past 3 months and from December thru March... the tv folk can talk about frontrunning all day, but I believe the mega-traders laugh at that... there are quite a lot of MIT and Stanford Phd.'s working the trading arms... I have tried to grasp the basic concepts thru readings, but there is no possible way I can employ it in my daily trading.... Gamma, Delta, etc., were more concrete, but this is way beyond my comprehension..
Re: Does anyone have experience with chaos formula trading..?
baz22- I recall asking CP a similar question back in August:
Chaos Theory
Submitted by 2nd_ave (3751 comments) on Sun, 08/23/2009 - 20:08 #42839
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
CP- Perhaps you can comment.
Is it possible that market movements, as chaotic as they appear at times, will in fact turn out to have been entirely predictable (ie, determined) by some initial event? I am thinking, in this case, not only of the Fed interventions last fall, but of the concerted efforts of global monetary authorities. Is it possible to have predicted the current rally? And do you think it may in fact have much further to go?
Fed's Hoenig suggests tightening 'sooner rather than later'
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig sees an imminent need to start tightening monetary policy, according to remarks Hoenig prepared for an economic forum in Denver Tuesday night.
Hoenig noted that the current federal funds interest rate, or the overnight lending rate U.S. banks charge one another, stands near zero.
"I would not support a tight monetary policy in the current environment," Hoenig said, according to the prepared remarks. "But my experience tells me that we will need to remove our very accommodative policy sooner rather than later."
He added, "even if we were to start immediately, much time would pass before incremental increases could be considered tight or even neutral policy."
Hoenig's remarks come shortly after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley said publicly that interest rates are likely to remain exceptionally low for "an extended period," to help ensure an economic recovery.
In a wide-ranging speech, Hoenig focused on regulatory reform and root causes of the economic downturn, rather than on fiscal policy.
He bemoaned legislative failures to rein in Wall Street banks ultimately deemed "too big to fail," and excessive executive compensation.
"If we do not find a way to end too-big-to-fail, the largest institutions retain an inequitable competitive advantage, will continue to escape market discipline and are incented to engage in practices that ultimately harm the financial system," Hoenig said.
John Letzing is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco.
Re: Does anyone have experience with chaos formula trading..?
2 nd/.... I haven't heard from CP in quite some time...( I hope everthing is OK in Texas )... I have failed to grasp a paper by Dr. Clarence Tan, of Bond University ( 1999 )... ' A Hybrid Financial Trading System ', incorporating chaos theory, stastical and artifical intelligence/soft computer systems '... ( sounds pretty easy !! )... There are three phases: First: selecting time series using chaos theory ( which I don't understand ) to identify the time series' that display non-random behavior. Second: forecasting the time series using ANN's ( Artifical Neural Networks )( ?? ) and non-linear statistical modelling technique... Third: implementing a rule based financial trading system that incorporates the forecast with trading rules ( aka. Goldman )and a money managment system that may incorporate the use of GA's ( genetic algorithms )..?? If this system works, as it apparently seems that Goldman or someone could afford to find out, then how could they NOT rule the market ?
Re: inverse head & shoulders on gold?
I think the question of inverse H&S after a move up was discussed some time ago, and Louise Yamada (sp?) was on bubblevision and identified it as a rare continuation pattern.
On a more sane note... Bill, do you have any time to comment
on the following Junior Miners ?...... 1. ORKO .... 2. Andean American ........ 3. Timberland Resources ... 4. Aeroquest ... 5. Energold Drilling..... Thank you...
Why The Fed Cannot Drain The Enormous Amount of Liquidity Inject
David, here is an article by J. Sinclair dated 22 July 2009.
You will hear a great deal this week concerning the ease with which the Fed can exit itself from the enormous explosion in their balance sheet to over two trillion dollars.
This will be classic MOPE to be gleefully received by the Money Bunnies and Dancing Clowns on financial TV. I can only imagine how the airwaves will blast out the good news that there is no inflation on the horizon because the Federal Reserve is firmly in charge.
The Chairman may say that since the Federal Reserve pays interest on Bank Reserves that it can easily raise short-term interest rates. The MOPE on that is that due to a lower dollar there will be upward pressure on rates that must be offset by QE in order to attempt to prevent a total economic implosion. These conditions are not likely to change for a considerable period of time, thereby preventing any move by the Fed to pressure rates even higher. That method is total nonsense under present economic conditions.
The other position is that it can easily shrink its balance sheet by letting short-term credit run off and sell longer term assets to the public.
The nonsense here is that the items purchased from the financial system are the toxic items that the banks had no real means of valuing for which no market existed then or now. Only a permanent Pollyanna would think that these items are in fact full value to the accounted for figure. Many may well never function. Therefore sell what to whom is the real question.
Let’s not forget the massive swaps with other nation’s central banks to fund the bailout of their banks, systemic to US banks, and the demonic OTC derivatives. Turning around those swaps would destabilize currency markets for non-US central banks, therein causing them trade related currency problems.
Regardless of claims to the contrary, there is no practical method of draining the huge international monetary stimulation undertaken by the US Federal Reserve.
The inflation on the horizon is not a “demand pull” inflation but rather a currency event that will cause cost push inflation.
The Fed is boxed in and can only MOPE
US Dollar: The new Carry Trade Currency
Paraphrasing some thoughts on the US$ as the carry trade currency of choice.
The US dollar is now under the pressure of the Carry Trade as well as all other factors.
The Carry Trade is initiated and then covered by borrowing and shorting the US dollar to guard against downside risk of the basic long.
The Carry Trade generally puts a multi-year and extremely bearish factor on the currency selected by the carry traders as the carry currency.
The FED said;
"The central bank left its target rate for overnight loans between banks in a record-low range between zero and 0.25 percent, and said it will stay "exceptionally low" for an "extended period.""
What the Fed said makes the US dollar the carry trade currency vehicle of choice for many months and maybe years to come.
David, my question for you is when the FED governors wake up and find out secret meetings have been held by at least 5 major counties for replacing the dollar as the currency of choice for oil trading, do you not think that the Fed heads are not going to be out in force to try to prop up the buck by rhetoric?
Also, I wonderful if the Fed was buying dollars today. Again, the last few posts by me are for debate purposes and to get us to see both sides and then allow us all to make whatever bet we want with respect to the market and interest rates. I very much enjoy the dialog. Cheers to you.
David Rosenberg commentary
From today's "Breakfast with Dave" newsletter:
"In our view, we are still in the midst of a bear market rally of 1930 and 1931 proportions, not to mention the similar pattern of early 2002 and of course, the four failed but tradable 50%+ rallies in Japan since its market peaked nearly two decades ago. What is lacking of course, besides the fundamentals (there is plenty of hope, however), is the turnover. And yesterday was a classic example where the NYSE rallies 1.8% on price but posts a huge 21% slide in volume (volume also eased 11% on the NASDAQ). And what is lacking, are signs of organic strength in the global economy, especially in the United States, where it is clear that government aid is continuously required to keep the economy afloat.
Goldman Sachs may be bullish on the big banks, but from our lens, when the financials would rather buy government bonds with their record $1 trillion of cash than extend credit to households and businesses, that also tells you a thing or two about their outlook for the economy as well."
Excerpt from Too Big to Fail, by Andrew Ross Sorkin
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2009/1...
Thanks Monroe, this was an excellent read. Gives a real insight into the Interventionists who control the capital market. Would they ever concede they caused the problem? Never! Their sole objective was for their precious HB&B system to stay in power by whatever means it took. That they called themselves Great Americans shows the utter contempt they have for the American people.
If America is to be saved, Congress needs to start working today on a new financial system structure for credit and financial services on one side and assets and capital markets on the other, with zero conflict of interest permitted.
As it is there are inadequate checks and balances. Each new crisis will be worse than the last. Ultimately, there will be a failure of such magnitude that the US government will run out of money, unable to pay its creditors.
After reading Sorkin's book, can anybody truly have confidence in the key players? The system is out of control and America has Obama, Pelosi, Dodd and Frank in command. My heavens!
Re: David Rosenberg commentary
Hear, hear!
Rosenberg, now there's a Great American... er, Canadian.
Junior Miners
baz22,
I am sorry to say there are only 100 hours in my working week and I don't have the time to look closely at the juniors. But, with a little more organizing on my part, I might one day. Maybe Jock or kaimu can assist.
Fed Officials and banks worried about Toxic com. real estate
Fed Officials and banks worried about Toxic commercial real estate assets & loans. Real estate trouble pt 2- coming to a theater near you in 2010.
http://bit.ly/3un83s
Re: Fear, emotion and Greed !
allengg said: "note to Les; let's start the weekend really early !"
note to self - don't short when prices gap up above the important moving averages.
Re: Why The Fed Cannot Drain The Enormous Amount of ...
Telestar3d, I think the article by J. Sinclair only serves to show why investors into real estate should start getting concerned now -- there are no easy options for the Fed to withdraw the liquidity it had injected into the system, and each option would lead to a significant hit to the real estate market. The speech by Fed's Hoenig today confirms that the average consensus of the Fed members is starting to shift toward monetary tightening.
Re: Fed Officials and banks worried about Toxic com. real ...
NYUGrad, can you please post the full article for those who don't have a subscription to the WSJ? Thanks!
Re: US Dollar: The new Carry Trade Currency
"David, my question for you is when the FED governors wake up and find out secret meetings have been held by at least 5 major counties for replacing the dollar as the currency of choice for oil trading, do you not think that the Fed heads are not going to be out in force to try to prop up the buck by rhetoric?"
Maybe... I am not sure myself as to whether the Fed wants a stronger or a weaker $USD right now. David Rosenberg, for example, suggests that devaluing $USD would be very helpful for the US economy (just like it was in 1930's), and this is the last "lever" that the Fed/Administration has not yet pulled.
Re: Fed Officials and banks worried about Toxic com. real ...
David, copy title of article. Paste in google. click link from wsj for full article. It works every time
peace
Re: US Dollar: The new Carry Trade Currency
ALOHA !!
David posted - "David Rosenberg, for example, suggests that devaluing $USD would be very helpful for the US economy (just like it was in 1930's), and this is the last "lever" that the Fed/Administration has not yet pulled."
I am confused. What is it the US FED has been doing for the past 96 years?
Then we have the US Treasury since Volcker, cawing like parrots for the past 30 years ... "STRONG DOLLAR! STRONG DOLLAR! ARRRR!!" While they play hide and seek with the US PUBLIC DEBT CEILING for the past 70 years! Did you know the DEBT CEILING con game has been going on with the US Treasury and the US Congress since 1940? Its so scripted that it makes Kabuki look improv!
If it is "good to devalue" as Rosenberg has said, then I would say that has been the problem all along not the solution.
I am still confused by these guys ... Only in a fiat monetary system would it ever be considered great strategy to purposefully LOSE VALUE!
Re: Fed Officials and banks worried about Toxic com. real ...
How to get the full article: search for the headline at Google News or at Digg and follow the link. Or use Firefox with a referer plugin.
THIRD DAY
ALOHA!!
The third full day of the FY 2010 and the US TREASURY has run up a total of $741BIL USD worth of marketable and non-marketable US DEBT ... Maybe it will be at $1TRIL by Oct 9th(one week measured by working days) ...
Get ready for the DEBT CEILING GAME to start up soon. They're starring at $11.9TRIL USD GROSS PUBLIC DEBT right now. When they hit $12.104TRIL USD the US Treasury is officially out of money!
Hummmm ...
gold +9 to 1048
Simply amazing. The buck back down to 76.30. It seems like gold just needs a nudge by the buck, and its off and running. All that commentary about how the Fed would not allow gold to stay above 1000, and how we weren't going to be fooled again, maybe this IS the time?
Nah. :)
Gann Baby Gann
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/gann-baby-gann....
Joaquin Andujar said "they have a word for it in English...youneverknow"
Re: Does anyone have experience with chaos formula trading..?
"If this system works, as it apparently seems that Goldman or someone could afford to find out, then how could they NOT rule the market?"
baz22- short answers:
(a) History is full of complex systems (especially 'forecasting' systems) and other assorted 'bright ideas' that ultimately prove worthless.
(b) Long Term Capital Management. Yeah, I know the system would ultimately have worked out. But so would most of my trades.
(c) If GS already rules the flow money and the distribution of wealth, why would they need a trading system?
Wed chat is up.
...