Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2009

pure gold Mr. Cara.

HYD - Anyone have an opinion on owning this ETF? I was looking for reasonably stable Muni to own in my taxable account instead of adding to Money-market funds that yield almost nothing. See
http://www.vaneck.com/index.cfm?cat=3192&cGroup=MU...

At the current price, it currently has a dividend yield of about 6%.

I was also vary of buying mutual funds with their short-term trading restrictions and thought this ETF would be decent alternative as I can always set a stop-loss in case of an unexpected panic selloff after I bought-in. I was looking to buy on a dip that I expect after it goes ex-dividend next week.

I believe today is a big day in the markets. If ISM is 51 the market goes up 200+

bought some ambac

New bull, new bubble, new meltdown?
By Paul B. Farrell

Something's in the air. You can feel it. A new bull. Hype? Maybe, but also a roaring new bull -- and eventually another meltdown.

http://tiny.cc/sfWGr

close to a capitulation play. buy limit 1.66. Max pain 5 for Sept. Do your own homework.

I know most of the people that post here seem to be day traders but I spent a few hours on this and I would like to share.

TD Ameritrade customers have access to a screen from the 'ResearchTeam' that can select the highest rated stocks classified as 'accumulate'. This is derived from the following research providers; Street.com (buy), Standard and Poors (5 or 4 stars), Ford Equity Research (strong buy/buy), Market Edge (long), and Jaywalk (strong buy/buy). At the close on Friday August 28, there were 95 stocks with the 'accumulate' rating.

MSN Money provides ratings on their stock quote screen called 'CAPS' (1 to 5 stars) and 'StockScouter' (1 to 10 points).

I checked each of the 95 stocks in the TD Ameritrade screen against the MSN Money ratings giving equal weight to the CAPS stars by doubling and adding the StockScouter points. The following stocks have 18, 19 or 20 points with closing prices as of 8/31/09:

DWA... 33.76
FLS... 86.25
GIB... 10.33
HWKN.. 21.25
ITT... 50.08
JNJ... 60.44
NRG... 26.85
NTES.. 41.99
PRA... 52.50
SYNT.. 40.07
VSEC.. 34.31
TIS... 21.20
AMSF.. 17.08

Here is link to the MSN Money quote for DWA as an example;
http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Sym...

I will be monitoring these in the next few months to see how it goes.

I realize that this is just a snapshot and that ratings can change quite a bit over time.

ouch!

long SSG at 22.74.

Sell stop 22.26/22.20 limit and sell limit 35 (max pain)

Man are they still working on that carcass?

I'm seeing distribution on the "good news" here.

Early in the morning, Redbook and ICSC were both negative, but the market ignored that rallying into the 10 am news releases.

There, pending home sales were seen to have improved over last month, which initially caused XHB to move up, but then massive selling just stopped the rally in its tracks. XHB moved sideways for a time, and then slowly started to fall, giving up most of its gains this morning.

The market has changed. Insiders are using good news to distribute. TOF got his ISM index of 52, and while the initial reaction was positive, SPY is almost back to its stating point.

You can see it in price & volume. Huge volume at 10 am, small price movement, and then followed by a drop.

Even if we rally from here, its not a positive sign for the bulls. Of which I am not one.

guys - you can't read the markets reaction to news in the first 20 minutes. the market is balancing out the news and making its opinion.

oh - and i just wanted to put my 2 cents in on the home buyer credit. do you really think that people are going to get into a debt of a quarter million dollars or so just because they're getting a $8,000 tax credit? i think the fact that prices have actually become affordable is more of an incentive.

TOF, what I'm reading is the market's reaction to the news. The reaction is distinctly negative. Whereas before, XHB would rally like crazy on the release of "good news", now it initially went up, then down, then flat, on huge volume, and then sold off. It's initial reaction here - negative.

I've seen what a positive reaction looks like - for the past 2 months. Today was different.

Your ISM number - MMM should have loved that. But now its in negative territory.

Honestly, the news isn't the important thing, it's the market's reaction to it that counts. Kind of weird, but true.

do you really think that people are going to get into a debt of a quarter million dollars or so just because they're getting a $8,000 tax credit?

Not specifically, but I do believe people will be more inclined to act sooner rather than later if there is a tax incentive.

Looks like Friday's unemployment report will be the card to watch for this week.

It will be better than expected. i can almost guarantee that.

Long @ 11.76

Hi Bill,

And that illustrious life brought you here so that we can all benefit from your presence :-)

I know you are big into PM, and your reports on SLW and GG have been so helpful.

I bought Franco Nevada on the IPO just because of the management team, and have been happy. I was wondering if you had an opinion on the company that you could share with us.

My ever best regards,

piazzi
markettime.blogspot.com

I got to get rid of that pesky job and family and join you guys.
Bob

bob, read Vad's log from yesterday's. The $$ some of them are rakin in... ay ay ay

POMO to the rescue?

DF - All the big names are down except for Bac +0.11 and STT +0.06, looking like they will go negative soon enough.

We used to call the guys who smoked cigs in the woods during 6th grade

"Hairy Bearies"

Weird, huh?

Dave, my take on market behavior on these numbers is similar, selling after a huge rally on positive news is the clearest reversal signal I can get. One thing bothers me still though: if this is reversal, it's going to be the most predicted one in history, LOL. Everything in me resists the idea that so many can be right... but I guess there are exceptions to everything

This smells to me like a bull trap more than a bear trap, at least on the TSX. Went short on CNR.TO @54.25 last week. The short has been green since then and I'm holding it for now. This isn't a junk stock, but a major CDN issue. I'm not looking for a crash but a correction somewhere between 10-15%, before moving higher, is where my bet is at. If I see it go above 54.25 again in the next few days I'd be more inclined to get out and say TOF is right. And TOF, I hope you're right about buying into the overdone Apple hype - you have more courage than I going heavily long here. But you are starting to sound a teeny bit desperate about wishing your trade higher...I recognize the symptoms because I've been there and done that - to my regret.

Am I missing something? It seems that on the back of good news today we've had an enormous swing from pos to neg the likes of which I can't recall seeing.

Canada is buying up $USD today, Bernanke's going to have to crank his presses up a notch...

On your call, shark. I'll fill you in at EOD ;)

Dave - I agree with you, but people on both sides were reading into the market's reaction and claiming victory. The dust has settled and it's clear its "sell on the news".

I think I mentioned this a few weeks ago. I don't know if today is the inflection point or not, but at some point the turn around in the economy will cause a sale off in wall street in anticipation of higher interest rates. So good news will be precieved bad because the FED free money door will be closed.
Bob

Good point Bob,

TBT +1% today.

short at $324

Now if I could just trade off that info

...

make that all the banks.

shark- So you were right, man. Tuesday morning it was. Erased about a quarter of my losses over the past two months.

$TRIN $TRINQ $TICK $TICKQ

For TRIN, try setting levels of .32, 1.00, 1.50. 2.00

for TICK, try looking for readings +800, -800 for extreme levels of overbought/sold

For whatever strange reason, I've found that for TIKQ (nasdaq) setting of -200 and +375 have been working well. (that will change...)

Confirmatory gauges of strength/ weakness

Maybe at some point something other than $USD will become a safe haven?

sold at 4.41. stepping aside to let the dust settle

Forgot to mention last week...Beautiful entry in TZA the other day.

"Beautiful entry in TZA the other day."

Yea, me too!

is for me to sit on my hands now.

most of this junk market took off.... will focus, big time, on oil service equities... ( BHI, SII, WFT, etc... )...

Well in that case I take back my beautiful T-monk tribute to 2nd last Friday. Hey is the "Craig" ride closed for repairs?
Bob

...

To retest or not to retest? That is the question.

Also noticing that GLD and GDX have been outperforming S&P for the last three days after underperforming (for the most part) since the beginning of June.

"will focus, big time, on oil service equities... ( BHI, SII, WFT, etc... )..."

Then take a look at WEL...

got off the dance floor too early (again)

That didn't take long...

Vad : this appears to be part of what you said in your blog.

see Reuters link above,

Hello, Chick.... I FINALLY sold all of vicl, avii, and incy... ( the worm is turning ... too many years under the belt not to sell these when nothing else is moving... the crazy stocks almost always get bid up before a market change... ie: low volume in large caps, vs. high/vol. in small.. ) BHI has decent support today, but believe it to be a bit of a head fake... $ 36.00 might be the top for tomorrow... I believe too many people have turned their heads, and take the gas/oil tango at face value.... but, HAL had nothing really good to say at conference, and CVX is pulling all gas rig builds... RIG and DO are good, based on long term tracts', but not yet... WEL is a little to bumpy for me, as more profits can be made on larger suppliers ( jmhao )..although WEL it made me a killing in the Gulf War ( gonna tourch all the well heads, remember ? ) .... Gotta see where king Oil goes at mid-September futures, but the Oil Services will be the long term winner in 2010 and beyond... all timing, eh ?? !! Land Rigs will look good if nat. Gas can revert above $ 3.50 in early winter/late spring.. Patterson, NBR., HP.. etal., would be the peach in the pie... would look for SLB at $ 46-$48 if NG can come down a tad more ( $ 2.40 ish ??? )... anyway, just ramblin'... DO really like BHI, and they are holding on an upgrade today... that will be my main holding again, as I believe Baker ( BHI ) will be in the catbirds seat for many years to come.... Best, Baz..

ABX & NEM green

"Am I missing something? It seems that on the back of good news today we've had an enormous swing from pos to neg the likes of which I can't recall seeing."

Could be simply those responsible for the run up since March have decided to take profits. They of all people know this was floating on nothing but hot air.

China’s derivative default stance rattles banks
September 1, 2009 by goldguru

By Eadie Chen and Chen Aizhu, Reuters

BEIJING — A report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to walk away from loss-making commodity derivative trades provoked anger and dismay among investment bankers on Monday as they feared it may set a damaging precedent.

The state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator and nominal shareholder for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published Saturday.

http://www.goldnewswire.net/chinas-derivative-defa...

here also:

http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-28/110230655...

"They of all people know this was floating on nothing but hot air."

I thought the bears were the hyper-ventilators.... Zero Hedge? Come on... seems to me they tend to blow things a little out of proportion.

If it happens it's retribution. They recognize they got sold a bad bill of goods, and may not necessarily make good. Chalk one up for the real enterprises vs the intermediaries looking for the easy buck.

"Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs and UBS declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management."

Found the article from Reuters here:

China's Derivatives Stance

This is not the sort of news you can scrub once it comes out.

doji candle on the daily, will be looking for confirmation and an entry tomorrow.

Hey CP...Thanks.
I learn something new here everyday which is why I keep coming back.
Let me try this one more time:

http://tiny.cc/PC6Rl

Lets see if this works.

2nd_ave - "Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in!"

RUATR8R
What I have seen posted in a lot of blogs is a "major foreign financial institution is in trouble". Also according to this link one in Chicago is also in trouble. http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=8376

Tomorrow could be interesting.

dave-

Michael Corleone: I feel... I'm getting wiser now.
Kay Corleone: The sicker you get, the wiser you get, huh?
Michael Corleone: When I'm dead, I'm gonna be really smart.

http://www.break.com/usercontent/2008/1/Stock-Futu...

A novel look at another traders psychological makeup

WARNING: frequent and foul language.

That boy is in denial ;)

Something has changed in the market today.

First bad news was ignored, then good news got sold hard this morning. Someone sold the rally big time.
TBT is up slightly even with the market down 20 points.
US Dollar is up - perhaps people like cash.
That 3 month bill auction did really well this morning.
Gold is up too - gold up while US Dollar up, now that's something different.
Silver is up as well. Oil, on the other hand, is down.
And our friend the VIX is up big - almost 4%!
And financials are leading us down, with homebuilders and REITs close behind.
And the crapola stocks have taken it hard as well. AIG -17%, FNM -16%, FRE -14%.

So what does it all mean? Something is definitely going on.
Perhaps HB&B has some news that we don't have. But their footprints are visible nevertheless.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/Spy4oOH5XgI/...

now 22% cash.

"Gold is up too - gold up while US Dollar up, now that's something different."

Maybe gold is up due to the jump in ISM...?

That's the most disgusting display I've seen in quite a while.

I will also reiterate my amazement by the number of sites you surf (grin)

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTR...

This clip made the rounds several years ago...

Saw someone wrap GLD into an asymmetric triangle, so did ditto for $gold.

http://tinyurl.com/nmeyhe

But FX360:

http://www.fx360.com/

suggests a Eur/USD play that looks for EUR strengthening by 1 cent. The trade recommendation is to buy at 1.4208, which has been surpassed today:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=EURUSD

So looking for Euro strength against dollar overnight suggest a weaker dollar tomorrow?

Market reversal, gold lifting?

I know Vad, I know - it has no bearing whatsoever on my trading. I just enjoy the intellectual exercise. Screw trying to actually play this scenario.

night all.

major outages reported.

yes and odd session w/ gold and the USD up.
to me it means one will correct itself shortly.

i suspect it will be gold either explosively upward or down.

im really on the fence at this point, the volume in Barrick was just great,
nice to see, NEM not bad and AEM so so. but only barrick made a big jump. a canary in the gold mine or is the lack of group action to confirm mean gold will move down as the shares still are failing to signal more interest?

once again the metal is showing stronger than the shares, and the JR's remain imho a casino at best.

im still holding some cash waiting for a downward plunge to buy back in, but if we get more of a move up from here it will only accelerate upward momentum as people see the broad market moving down and gold the only thing hanging in there. though i think the miners will need to really attract more volume to make a sustained run.

Been between 142 and 144 since middle of July (exception being the recent quick drop to 1.4178 - and retrace thereof)

Currently at 200 sma resistance on 240 min chart with no resistance above thereafter

Cut thru, then recovered S2, 30 min pivots (bullish)

even if no moves on purely USD concerns, a likely move up back up through the range to confluence of 50 SMA @ 143, or just a bit below at S1, 1.42.74.

Maybe hen 143.70....

If a break above 1.44, expect 1.444 before 147 (200 sma on daily).

I know that's way out, but there's nothin but air between 1.4458 and about 1.47

Will this play out? heck if I know....

ok, so i've had more time to think about this. i'm probably a conspiracy theorist but i think this was prompted by hedge funds looking to get into this market and not wanting to chase it higher. how can it be justified that a large bank at this stage of the game is going to go under? do you really think the fed/treasury would let this happen? pretty much every large bank has done significant equity offerings to raise capital and i'm sure the .gov is on top of the banks needing to raise capital to do so through the markets...

i have heard so many people say that one of their reasons for shorting this market is because september and october are typically bad months. how ridiculous is that? people reference 3 times in the past 80 years as back up. if anyone is relying on statistics that are right 3 out of 80 times then i think it might be time to change what you rely on.

i believe this rumor was spread so easily because of this idea that sept/oct are bad months and when combined with the roughly 1 year anniversary of the fall 2008 horror show, it provided ample support for a rumor like this to be believed. i'm sticking to my guns that this market should be bought, not sold, because in 12 months i think we will be higher.

all rumor. i cant imagine any bank of any considerable size going under at this point. I dont think even i could make a bank go under if i tried as ceo, with all the backstops the govt has approved.

and just to follow up, i don't think people should just rush into buying the market dips. i'm allocating roughly 10-20% of my cash in my LT account every week or two. i just put in 30% of my cash yesterday/today and will wait for another couple of weeks for a big down day to do so again.

http://tiny.cc/3381V

Thank You Sir!

In 2002, I was a bit dismayed when the comany I had come to set as an anchor in my port was acquired by Newmont.

In 2007, when I heard the same tam that ran Franco Nevada were bringing the company back as an entity of its own, and acquiring some right from Newmont, I just bought.

Much appreciate your opinion and the material you linked

Regards,

piazzi

RUATR8R - "If you look back a couple of months ago wasn't FASB threatening to get some backbone with regards to accounting rules? This was supposed to take effect by 3rd quarter. Now, FASB is coming out and saying the banks will be able to liberally interpret values for illiquid assets on the books."

Ahh yes, I remember seeing this in the news again lately. Actually, if the FASB is relaxing accounting standards again, the market is likely to interpret this to mean banking financial strength is not improving. Why would the financial sector want to make their books even more opaque?

I'm more concerned with rising mortgage rates than most anything else, as this would increase foreclosure pressure.

NYU - Yeah, I'd give it a few days. Short term this could be the case, but let's see how it plays out over more than a few trading sessions.

Training video for all politicians....

http://tinyurl.com/8m9x72

SRS hit a couple of sell limit orders for me today: at $12 for the shares that I purchased at $11.38 and at $12.50 for the shares I purchased at $11.85. These two sales reduced my SRS position by about 10%. I have just placed buy limit orders at $12 and $11.50 once again, so that I could automatically "rinse and repeat" if the market has a rebound tomorrow. SRS is just an incremental "money pump" for me, which I plan to keep using until I sell all my shares.

What concerns me much more, however, is my attempt to make a "big win" by taking a larger than usual position in a 3X ultra-short. I bought FAZ at $26.28, then sold it at $23 last week after deciding for a clear downtrend to establish itself. On Monday I bought TZA at $14.60 and got stopped out today at $14.16. I guess I need to allow for several "false starts" before actually making a kill with a 3X ultra-short (assuming the market is going down).

So, when would be another good time to try to enter a 3X ultra-short? Supposedly, a "reflex rally" toward resistance provides the safest entry. So, would the TA experts recommend waiting for a rally in S&P toward 1013 and then making sure that the rally reverses?

...

shark- As promised, recap of my morning trade:

(a) After the morning run-up, I noticed bids were getting hit across the tape.
(b) I saw bsi87's post about legging into SSG @ 22.74. I started doing the same at 23.14, as SSG was lagging the other ultrashorts. Noticed FXP also 'lagging,' and bought in at 10.84.
(c) You started dissing the bears. I started pressing the SSG/FXP trade, and added TZA.
(d) Off all positions about an hour later.

It's only fair, my friend. You've been raking it in on a string of blacks for weeks, it seems. When you started Hollywood'ing the bears and dancing on their graves, I had to bet red.

I did it b/c I think it needs at least a dead cat bounce.

And b/c at 5 pm EDT the NOAA released an advisory on TS Erika:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

Yeah. Don't diss the bears. :)

That's a beaut! Especially as a rug.

When our kids were still in grade school we were hiking in Glacier National Park with another family. As we were heading back to camp we spotted a mother grizzly with two cubs about 25 yards away walking along a creek.

We froze in place and it was totally silent except for the running water, she stood up and turned her head our way — fortunately the cubs had kept on walking and she got down and followed them. She was probably about 10 to 12 feet tall, but I swear she looked big enough to swallow any of us whole.

Many rumours have some truth to them or start from with factual information that becomes distorted and increasingly more skewed as time progresses. Maybe the real concern is not WFC but AIG where the shares declined over 20% before the bell, and another 5% in after-hours trading. I suspect very bad news pending which will shock the financials and put a cap on our summer rally. Next stop is S&P @ 950 with a bullet.

Bill long ago mentioned that when a stock's 7-day RSI reaches 10, it generally signifies capitulation, providing buyers with a relatively safe bet. At least that's the case with your average company stock. HNU's RSI-7 is at 13.6, so it's getting close. However it's a funny leveraged financial instrument, so I don't know if that rule of capitulation applies...

I'm extra interested in seeing how this plays out. I myself bought a few hundred shares of this stuff today, in my account. I lurk on the stockhouse boards (to gauge sentiment), as well as here, and HNU's sure feels like the other ones do when capitulation occurs. There's so much hopelessness there, now. It's the bull's board, but the bears have won over most of the participants, and if a newcomer defiantly announces that he/she went long, they're quickly shot down by a few of regulars.

Apparently, NG is heading to $1-2, if the longs get off easy, 0 if they don't. Or so says the TV! But why are we hearing SO much of this now? Why so late? Were these calls being touted by the financial media several weeks ago? I mean... did these inventory levels really catch so many off guard, or is that just the story that fits the target?

Anyway, I'm a simple guy. I look at RSI-7, and not much else. I don't much attention to the analysts, so let's see how far this gets. If a dead cat is all I get, hopefully I clue into that.

I keep thinking about Vad's comment this morning that if this is the start of a large sell off, it will be the most widely/correctly one called in history. As a counter trend trader, this is exactly why I have been only scalping short trades for the past month or so. I suspect this is a set up for the finale. Anyone here get short at the close?? I bet not.

If not, then a bite out of the middle is OK also.

This keeps bothering me too. It just can't be so easy for so many... can it? I am trying to envision scenarios that would feel more probable to me.

One is a few fakeouts before real cascade starts. Return to the high, retreat, return to the high, maybe even some new high... then, when enough of of talking (and typing) heads give up on the idea of reversal, it finally materializes.

Another is, selloff starts now but it includes so vicious snapbacks that not many are able to stay the course.

And of course there is a room for the third... all this selling of last days is just a pullback before rally continuation... :) I see a lot of flaws in this assumption, but there is something to it... I mean, isn't everyone keeps repeating that September, historically, the worst... you know the drill, even CNN today mentioned that. So, as I mentioned before if "sell in May" would be very bad idea this year, how about destroying one more stereotype while we are at it :)

Anyway, I listed three I can think of at the moment.

Are all the people wrong all the time? I think Abraham Lincoln said that.

How about the market proves the majority correct? Wouldn't that be the ultimate surprise?

Dave- This site is close... http://tinyurl.com/m9xjct . About 3 days behind what you can find on the Naz, but easier. Either way the data is always 12-15 days old.

Your enemy already knows the data. Let's see how they use it against us.

Have an if- then scenario for each below:

a) good sales & markets react up
b) good sales & markets react down
c) bad sales & markets up
d) bad sales & markets down

my hunch is retail will be sluggish vs 2008. Contraction of credit lines, fear of job loss, fear of home loss, etc.

But then again the data may not be able to fight overseas Asia and EU momentum

According to Reuters the total short interest at the NYSE was 3.7% of all shares outstanding (8/15, 14.2 billion shares up from 14.02 billion on 7/31).

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUSN25...

Mark, they're satirists from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. This was not an actual interview :)

Let's not forget that this board is not an indicator of the majority investor sentiment, which hit last week the extreme seen last in October 2007. So I wouldn't say that everyone is expecting this sell-off to continue. Even the wise contrarian investors on this board are doubting whether the sell-off will continue. So I actually see no reason as to why tomorrow can't be another 2% down day.

I have just placed a buy stop limit order on TZA, with a stop at $15.9 and limit at $16. The futures are up right now and I hope the market will open with a gap up and will then proceed down, which is better than opening with a gap down, triggering my buy stop order on TZA and then shooting up. The position size of this TZA order is 1/2 the size of the position from which I was faked out today. If my order gets triggered and then S&P rallies to the 1010-1015 area and stops, then I would consider it to be a "reflex rally toward resistance" and will put in the other 1/2 of the position.

ALOHA !!

Les posted-"The Obama Administration is failing badly to reform the US financial system, and so here we are, trading on hot money and rumours."

Well, you could definitely say the same thing about the Woodrow Wilson administration that sold us out to the US FED ... right on down to Bush2 and now its Obama's turn. A long line of sell outs! A long train of abuses as the US Declaration Of Independence says ...

I prefer to limit my counterparty exposure and exit the USA. Is there an AIG at the ASX? A FNM? A C? Trader tax? 40% capital gains? Employee memos? Cramer?

Just so you guys know the ASX would have sent out letters to AIG and C and the rest asking for an explanation of the unusual share price and volume movements. Not that AIG would not lie but at least there would be a "paper trail" for future class action lawsuits. Here in America Wall Street and the SEC do not believe in paper trails! I have seen the ASX send companies inquiries many a time.

Speaking of ASX ...

Straits Resources-SRL(ASX)is paying a $0.30AUD dividend on Sept 21, record date Sept 9 as of trade date Sept 2.

LINK: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090831/pdf/31kg5t1m...

ALOHA !!

Thanks for your comments today Bill regarding your parents and the undervalued "work ethic" ... You are indeed fortunate son. Nobody is born with the ethic it is taught and learned by Father & Son ...

Interesting that you Father was in the electrical industry and then took up farming later in life. I know someone like that! As a matter of fact right up the street from me is another farmer who was an electrical contractor in Huntington Beach,CA for 30 years before moving here. You should hear all the electrical shop talk when he and I get together! HA!! Both CALI-EXPATS!!

GROUND REPORT
Well, I may be out of business soon thanks to the State Of Hawaii and their budget problems they are laying off 80% of the agriculture inspectors so you better go to to your SafeWay and buy up all the Mauna Loa Macadamia Nuts and Dole pineapple and Hawaiian food. I guess I'll have to move to a place that cares about small businesses, like Panama or Ghana!

You know as soon as I think I have seen government get as stupid as it can get, THIS HAPPENS! So to save money the State of Hawaii kills off a billion dollar industry ... Hummmm okay!

I took a look at the Hawaii Budget and the cost to administer the entire Agriculture Dept including inspectors and admin is $2.5MIL, an 8% increase from 2008. The budget for the Hawaii Taxation Dept is $9.8MIL. If the Hawaii Ag business goes down then the State can layoff personnel at the Taxation Dept since many business will no longer need to file a tax return. Then they can take those jobless tax personnel and move them over to the Welfare Dept and Unemployment Dept to help with the surge of ag workers and business owners who will be applying for financial aid. Besides who needs food?

What a country!

Here is an e-mail I got tonight ...

Aloha Fellow Certified Nursery Operator,
If you haven’t already heard, I am very sorry to inform you that we all may soon be out of business. Please read this very carefully.

At a meeting I attended last week, Carol Okada, Manager, Plant Quarantine Division of the Dept. of Agriculture revealed that because of the massive lay-offs of agricultural inspectors, they no longer will be able to inspect and certify our nurseries, and therefore we will no longer be able to self-certify our shipments.

I asked “If we can no longer self-certify our boxes, then what is the plan for me to continue shipping my products to the Mainland?

She replied “We don’t have a plan”.

I then asked “So, we will have to go out of business?”

She replied “Yes”.

After a moment of shock and disbelief, I followed up with “you said that the remaining Airport inspectors will continue to inspect incoming FedEx because it goes through the Airport. Can’t they inspect our outgoing FedEx boxes at the Airport?”

Both she and AnnaMae Shishido shook their heads and replied “No”.

Ms. Okada gave a devastating power point presentation detailing the myriad services and responsibilities of DOA, and how their ability to provide these services will be severely impacted by the lay-offs (which specifically target Inspectors).
If you don’t believe what I am telling you, ask anyone who was at the meeting or simply call Carol Okada or AnnMae to verify it.
So this is a time when we need to organize (if you wish to stay in business). We need to rally support for the DOA within the Ag community and the community at large. Our Maui Senators are trying to help, and an opportunity to voice our concerns is coming up very soon (in the next 2 weeks). Our Senators are arranging a special emergency hearing on this matter to be held on this island. It is absolutely critical that this hearing is attended by all of you, your workers, contractors that depend on you, etc. Also, it is the entire Ag industry that is affected, not only Certified Nurseries (I’m not covering those issues in this brief emergency email), so I hope you will contact everyone you know who is involved in agriculture.END

That's the greatest indictment of top down economics I have heard in a long time. Time to build your own industry led trade and regulatory community Kaimu. Best of luck.

ALOHA !!

Yep ... A nice $18,000 bonus on top of a 300% gain with a 25% currency arbitrage thrown in ...

I guess the State of Hawaii is forcing me into "day trading" for a living!

ALOHA !!

Les, are we the only two people up at this time? HA!!!

Its 11PM here in Hawaii. What time is it in Switzerland now?

Can someone help me understand something. If DIS is 25.6 and MVL is 47.7 (+25% after DIS aquired them). In terms of future play on either stock, who now ultimately gains from the takeover in terms of the stock. Will the MVL stock cease to be after 2 years and stock holders get DIS or will DIS benefit from the MVL intellectual property and their stock will rise. Im just a bit confused about this DIS deal and what happens now to MVL.

Can anyone explain possible future senarios?. I still beleive MVL is/was a great company with huge riches coming in the next few years. Which stock is now set to benefit from this deal?

Thanks for comments yesterday Les. Finished my Macau contract so have now taken time off from employment to enjoy time with the children and Hong Kong and even got to hang out in the UK for a month. Now Im back and looking for some market action.

ALOHA !!

I thought DIS bought MVL ... If that is the case why would MVL stock keep trading after the buyout is complete? I only heard a radio version of that deal so I am not sure of the written details.

...

"Today, hedge fund leaders Paul Tudor Jones and others jumped on the short side questioning the validity and viability of the current rally as reported well in this Bloomberg story. They’ve thrown down the gauntlet to Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to prove that the economic recovery and market rally are for real. We’ll see who’s right ultimately but today they had the tape finding a lot of stops to hit. It was definitely their plan and was successfully orchestrated."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/159474-wednesday-o...

Doesn't change reality, but interesting to know what hedge funds are capable of when they're charged up after summer vacation.

Lincoln said, "You can fool some of the people all of the time,
and all of the people some of the time,
but you can not fool all of the people all of the time."

If he were alive now he may add...

"You only need to fool a plurality of the people
for one day and you can become President."

:) nice one Ad. Seems the faces have changed since I was back in Oz.

Ah if only people clued into the reality of the final seconds of that skit.

Sorry TOF, I must have been asleep when I was reading your post :p

But the BATS and NASDAQ voluntary bans of flash-trades did come into effect on 9/1.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/06/65811/n...

bought a little more at 165.11 pre market

getting close to capitulation play.

FD: Long.

Just to clarify my thinking on buying AAPL because a lot of people probably think it's crazy to buy after this run and when it looks like the markets will be weak:

I believe AAPL will earn $7.50 to $8/share in 2010. I'm assigning a 22 multiple on their earnings and then adding in $32/share in cash, which gives me a price target of $197 to $208. However, like I said before, I think the iPhone is a game changer. I think it will be as powerful a technology as the personal computer and think they will eventually capture 25% of the entire cell phone market in 5 years with this phone. They have only had one carrier in the U.S. for this phone and eventually will have all carriers offering it. They aren't in China yet, which is a huge market. So there is a lot of room to grow.

bobbyo,
I think maybe this is what you were thinking of.

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."Abraham Lincoln

I found that and a few other Lincoln quotes at the following site.

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/a/abraham...

CE1969

Team,

RSI for AAPL is 43/71/69.

The 50 DEMA is 156/ 200 DEMA is 135 so support/buying points are some distance away.

Max pain options are showing 165 for Sept and 145 for Oct.

Can't speak to the earnings estimates...too many games for me. Your projections may be correct but the questions I have - are what if they aren't and what if the unforeseen occurs like a slow recovery or a stronger competitor/new technology emerges?

JMO, I'd wait for the stock to come to me.

FD:no position, long or short.

BSI - this is going to be a longer term hold for me. i came to the resolution of this yesterday after panicking a little bit on a $5 drop when i firmly believe in 3 to 5 years they will be up around $400/share given: (a) growth in iPhone and (2) growth in Macs.

Team,

The average daily move over past 10 days (Average Trading Range) is 3.57 so a several dollar swing during a day would not be unusual. I guess one needs to determine when a thesis is not correct and when the proper time to bail is.

I do know is what everyone knows isn't worth knowing and quite often, there's a big difference between expectations and actual performance.

GL

Re-entering minor positions....

looking thru RSI screener. CMED popped up, trading under RSI 7 day of 10. Max pain is 17 for Sept.

buy limit 12/trailing buy stop .20

Do your own homework.

Kaimu

Couldn’t agree with you more on the cutbacks on the Hawaiian agriculture Inspectors. Not often one reads of your support for any government program, but it certainly makes sense for the Hawaiian economy.

Reference your past post about the RI governor shutting down government for 12 days, the unions have answered.

WSJ: Labor unions are challenging the Rhode Island governor's plan to shut down the state government for 12 days in an effort to narrow a $68 million budget deficit.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125185440080078037...

In Chicago, 48 of 50 unions supported the mayors mandatory furlough days. The 2 that resisted lost more than 500 positions in subsequent layoffs.

...

bought at 53.04

2nd- Stuck on the bench and the coach hasn't looked my way.

I guess the hedge funds did their job spreading a false rumor to get the market lower for them to buy in.

hi bsi,
don't know if you saw this or not?

China Medical Tech 1st-quarter net fell 96%

(6:24 AM ET) TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- China Medical Technologies Inc.,the Beijing medical-device producer, reported that fiscal-first-quarter net income fell 96% on 29% higher revenue. For the quarter ended March 31, net income was 2.9 million yuan ($400,000) compared with 80.3 million yuan in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue reached 209 million yuan from 162.1 million. Adjusted earnings from continuing operations fell 7.7% to 72.5 million yuan

luck
CE1969

bought more at 52.90

agreed. Looking to short C today but too late.

it's happening just as I said it would...this last time:)

I mentioned this last week but here is my thinking on this:

I think there is a sector rotation underway from the highly speculative "trash" financials to the blue chip stocks. Look at the action in those "trash" financials the past 2 days and compare them to the action of KO, PG, etc. I think this is where the next leg up comes from...

For daily commentary from London, Adrian Ash provides the best daily vantage point prior to the NY COMEX open:

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_data_090220091

The price rally in gold should actually be under way, since the move in the gold price is analogous to the lengthy correction in gold prices in 2007.

The weekly gold chart shows how similar these moves are, it only remains to be seen how well the gold market ratchets up the gold price in the next month or two. The timing is so similar, you can compare by numbers of weeks between each turning point.

Very likely there will be very mixed signals from the commodities, since the COT data for copper is showing that we have reached a top.

So physical demand is down... India isn't buying. I wonder if gold is finding alternative routes to normal physical supply flow (black market) in developing countries.

The spin is absolutely deafening.