Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., Apr. 8, 2009

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Yes, I'm watching pre-market whilst you guys are asleep. Would have liked to put a dime down earlier as things were getting ugly, but the good book according to Washington and their proxies at IB tell me I'm limited to two day trades every five days.

I'll wait for the real nasty days before having a go with FAZ.

"Screw the little investor". There must be a plaque hanging up in an SEC office somewhere that says it...

"I have always referred to it as corporate incest — CEOs who served on each others' boards and then proceeded to screw the shareholders."

Grym- Yes. I would imagine (the majority of) board meetings to be an exercise in peer pressure. A continuation of the cocktail parties and weekend golf outings. They all know where they stand (socially, economically- both relative to society and to each other), they know how they got to where they are, they know they'd be in trouble were their employees, shareholders, and the public to find out how little they really know (along the lines of Bill's earlier comments), and their presence at the board meetings is required to simply sign off on what has already been agreed to at earlier/ongoing off-the-record chats.

Probably no different than what happens behind the blue wall of police precincts- what happens inside stays inside, and there's a we-versus-them mentality.

Good morning. Put on your reading glasses, there are a multitude of changes today:

Upgrade:

BBBY - to Neutral @ JP Morgan

Downgrades:

CEO - to Sell @ UBS
DB - to Market Perform @ Bernstein
GRMN - to Neutral @ Robert W. Baird. Price Target = $20
TEF - to Hold @ Deutsche

New Coverage:

JNPR - Brean Murray Initiates Coverage with a Buy. Price Target = $20
QCOM - FBR Capital Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $50

Target Raised:

BBBY - from $33 to $35 @ Credit Suisse. Outperform Rating.
INTC - from $16 to $17 @ Wedbush Morgan. Buy Rating

Target Lowered:

JNPR - from $19 to $18 @ Stifel Nicolaus. Buy Rating.

-------------

Back with more when/if they happen.

Like every day of the week now there's a murder/suicide? 300 million Americans....20 million of 'em out of work...Add 500 million hand guns and you can see that as the economy/social sphere worsens, some of those guns will come into play...

But wait you ask..... What about my constitutional right to not get smoked by some [censored] nutcase who can't speak a word of English but comes heavy into the public sphere to take out as many innocent people as possible because hey, it's all about him and his gun rights, right?

This is the aspect that the NRA and gun nuts in general always fail to take moral and legal account for...That one's right as an American to own guns stops dead in it's tracks the moment those guns are used to threaten/harm innocent people.

And in fact that right becomes mired in a gray area and is subject to being called into question when gun violence increases to the point that societies right to freedom from gun violence becomes largely threatened by the now legal presence of 500 million guns in American households.

You know guys, these corporations and their boards are all registered in some state or another with LAWS describing HOW these people are supposed to legally act.

The person/persons that oversee these things are known as Attorney Generals in most places and they are ELECTED. Read again, ATTORNEY----ELECTED.
Where they are not elected they are appointed by the executive, and the executive is elected. Soooo, there is one political pressure point to attack however they get there...the Attorney Generals of the U.S., and of each state, most notably the States of New York, California, Connecticut and Delaware.

Luckily we see the AG's from NY and Connecticut are reasonably active but not sufficiently empowered by the people, IMO. Cuomo is very visible, but there is a lot of work to get to the professional rotating back patting Boards.

I think that all boards should have odd numbers and regular shareholders should hold the majority of seats with all directors elected by simple majority of the shareholders votes.

Bill points out the lack of special skills to be a banker. There are no special skills per se to be a director, but curiosity, honesty and direct responsibility to the shareholders are paramount. Some have these abilities, some don't and some learn. Right now there is no pressure to learn these skills, no, the opposite is true, extreme reward for back patting.
That situation has to be completely reversed.

shark- Humiliation is a powerful force. Some people (spouse having an affair/ex dating someone else, or in this case belittled/laughed at for lack of verbal skills/inability to get/keep a job) can't take it. Now I don't know anything about his family/friends, but he obviously wasn't getting the support he needed/still needs. Tragic.

JNPR - Upgraded to Buy @ AmTech Research

no no Craig, it's a whatdoyoucallit account - Reg T Margin? No, I'm penalised for not having 25'000.

"A pattern day trader is one that effects four or more day trades of a given security or option within a five day period."

Loading up on Monday with FAS, ESLR, QLD & TYH and cashing them all in on closing was enough to get me burned. (that was fun, I wanna play some more...)

Will have to play a little more wily. It's got me focused on a fixed goal short term - 25G.

I feel as though these guys who hold overnight often get away with murder(just an expression). Alcoa, which I dumped yesterday 7.70-7.80, goes down to 7.50 aftermarket on weak earnings. Then, we wake up this morning...What a difference a day makes! All of a sudden this stupid issue is going out the door over 8 bucks.

Life is practically an object lesson in the subject of humiliation. [People] will cheat, friends are circumstantial and nothing's what we think it is/wish it were.

Okay, I see.

Maybe concentrate on one or two trades staggered with one or two others for better $ management? This way you could keep a little dry powder for those times you need cleared cash. Been there, done that....

2nd- Sicking to the plan, 1/2 off PM @ 6.38. +7%

Les,

Even the phrase "well regulated militia" by definition excludes every other (even good legit) reasons to own. Clearly, and I know you will agree, that constitutional phrase has been nurtured and interpreted in a manner favorable to an economic constituant. A different judicial interpretation will yield a predictably different outcome. Not that I disagree with your main point, guns enjoy a certain constitutional status that chimps do not.

I even think it's good for "some" people to have guns. You either agree that some people should NOT enjoy a right to unfettered gun ownership or you do not, in which case you (not you personally but you know what I mean) take your rightful place in the pantheon of gun nuts.) Get my point? No reasonable person could agree that EVERYONE should have a right no own (negating the constitutional principle by common sense), and if you do wupport general and unfettered ownership rights (including Ted Bundy, John Wayne Gacey and the Vietnamese guy) then you're nuts:)

Have an awesome and hopefully money-making day!

Thanks, the reversal (about 8%) in AA is nice to see.

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It's a flag....

'"Screw the little investor". There must be a plaque hanging up in an SEC office somewhere that says it...'

Rule concocted by HB&B to tilt the playing field, just as your stop limits aren't applicable in pre or post market hours. This second one really makes my skin crawl.

Come on man, show some restraint.

Now only down 1% from yesterdays close.
Edit: Now +1% on a 27% Q1 miss.

Using IB, you should be able to set up a contingent market order (with multiple contingencies, the first being the stop trigger and the second the limit price) to execute after-hours if both contingencies met. Haven't tried this myself, but seems like it should work. Were I to try this, I'd also make it a hidden order to help prevent the market makers from screwing you.

For the record, I've not tried the above. Not advice. DYODD. ~OG

gold taking it's daily kicking.

KGC down hard. Taking an opening position.

KGC 7d RSI under 30

My account's still locked up. &%ç%! Have a nice day.

now exceeds 5

the question is whether the VXX is 'dumb money'

The short term VIX futes are in backwardation not contango to the longer-term... that is they are higher now

the biggest four letter word in English? Hope
the most sensitive nerve in the body? the money nerve...touch it and everybody jumps

thanks buddy. better lucky than good sometimes :')

"Looking beyond today, onto next week, I wonder if we see a correction "upwards"

Very observant for a plumber.... nothing would surprise me.

Yes, considerably better in comparison with year end. Still recovering from last year, satisfied with progress.

http://tinyurl.com/dyeeo7

Has now retraced 50% of recent gains.

From today's New York Daily News at http://tinyurl.com/cggg42

"Officers on Sunday stopped a passenger arriving from Seoul, Korea who
was carrying two counterfeit $100,000 bills. The rare bills were
originally produced in 1934 during the Great Depression to be
circulated between the Federal Reserve Banks and never to the public.

The 1934 Woodrow Wilson Gold certificate is the largest denomination
of U.S. currency printed. According to the Smithsonian Institute, the
printing on the bill includes the phrase, "This is to certify that
there is on deposit in the Treasury of the United States of America
One Hundred Thousand Dollars in Gold payable to bearer on demand as
authorized by law."

The Korean discovered 2 things: 1) There's no law. 2) There's no gold.

SEC'S CASEY: UNCLEAR WHETHER REPEAL OF UPTICK RULE HAS LED TO RECENT ECONOMIC AND MARKET CONDITIONS OF PAST 18 MONTHS

How's this for clarity: NO, IT DID NOT!

In context, that could be just a prep remark for the following which gives it at least a resemblance of some sense:

- Remarks will decide on support of short sale restrictions based on regulatory principles
- Concerned that any uptick rules could be challenged in court system if it is not proved that the elimination of rule drove stocks down

This reconfirms my greatest concerns regarding our regulatory authorities. Perhaps the economic and market conditions relate more to the failure of innovative financing and over-extension of credit to a drunken consumer?

Speaking of alcohol, Casey needs a switch to non-alcoholic aftershave, talk about having your head up your @$$....

Every short-selling rule being considered is interventionist, anti-capitalist and each would if implemented impinge on the free-market character of the equities market.

A lot of namby-pamby sissy investors and managers would love to muzzle every kind of market distraction, from short sellers to day traders...

Reason is we eat their lunch practically every day:)

Fuggeetttaboutit!

Les, contact IB directly. I keep a printout of the website contact info in my IB folder. I need to transact with human (as a member of densa). The phone help are (for the most part) helpful and knowledgeable though I think they are very aware of what not to say. The web chat help format works well enough too. I was frozen out, requires the request from you to "not day trade" as per account fine print. My intent was to get to 25K asap but i took a wrong road and still not back to basis for acct.
I have to trade not only keeping some powder dry but timing my bullets werry werry kafully (-sorry, old american cartoon reference equating me to elmer fudd and profit as "that wascally wabbit")
peace

Perhaps you should do a bit of homework before being so quick to condemn the Second Amendment.

In England where virtually no one can own a gun anymore (Shotguns were OK — last I heard — if a local constable would agree to vouch for you.)

Chicago has had a handgun ban for decades with no benefit.

Banning anything only raises the vlue to those willing to break the law — take a look at the US/Mexico border war today.

Last time I was in London there were a series of what they call "hot buglaries" — the bad guys with guns force their way in knowing there is no threat from the law abiding citizens.

What does language have to do with any of this?

Hi Everyone,

Please note a clarifying amendment to Rule 009 of the blog rules. That rule now states:

009. Do not insult community members. Express yourself in a kind and respectful manner, even if you are upset. Flaming and fighting are not permitted. Derogatory comment based on gender, race, nationality, or belief system is here deemed to be insulting to the community.

This is a community and these rules are subject to your comment. Your feedback is welcome.

Wishing you successful trading,
Jack

Perhaps you should do a bit of homework before being so quick to condemn the Second Amendment.

In England, where virtually no one can own a gun anymore, it has had an inverse effect. Last time I was in London there were a series of what they called "hot burglaries" The bad guys with guns force their way in knowing there is no threat from the unarmed, law abiding citizens.

Chicago has had a handgun ban for decades with no benefit.

Banning anything only raises the value to those willing to break the law — take a look at the US/Mexico border war today. The Clinton "assault weapons ban" tripled the price on those already legally owned.

Also in London on that trip, they'd had three execution style killings with a crossbow. Necessity being the mother...etc.

BTW, what does language of a shooter have to do with any of this?

"No reasonable person could agree that EVERYONE should have a right no own (negating the constitutional principle by common sense), and if you do wupport general and unfettered ownership rights (including Ted Bundy, John Wayne Gacey and the Vietnamese guy) then you're nuts:)"

Perhaps there are people who should not simply be granted the right to speak out.

What if we ban your right to your opinion regarding gun rights?

What measure would have prevented those individuals you name from doing any of their actions?

Who should we trust to decide?

I'll go for your previous suggestion and blow away anyone who breaks into my home.

Back a few years, my late brother lived in Ohio and his home kept getting broken into. So he bought a gun and told the local police that he was now armed. The advice he got from the police was that if he shot an intruder and said intruder fell back outside, my brother was to drag the guy back inside before calling the police. This, said the police, would prevent him from being sued by the intruder, should he survive, or by his relatives should he not survive.

In a perfect world the uptick rule would not be necessary. In a world of collusion and an unfair playing field...in my opinion, some version of the uptick rule is needed.

The uptick rule was removed in 2007 because the HB&B's were done taking the market up and they then wanted to take it down-fleecing the public. It just made the job a little easier...

About 10 year ago one of my relative stores was kept getting broken into.
One day he left naked electric wire at back door. Intruder had an electric shock. He sues and got 15K

Uptick rule was implemented in 1938. The idea that 2007 was the first time HB&B was done taking market up and needed it removed seems a bit overstretched, no? :)

It never made much sense, and what little sense it did make was lost under the decimalization and bid-chasing software algorithms.

Obviously our fearless leaders have yet to see a trading platform conditional order screen, much less the *internets*. How hard can it be to catch an uptick, and what trader worth his salt is chasing shorts? (or ultras).

shoot 3 times bang! bang! bang! the last one was a warning shot.

Sharky-
"from my cold dead hands"..... : ')

HB&B saw the writing on the walli n 2007-mortgage crisis was coming to a head,etc. They just made the determination that the market was going to go down and they needed to make it easier for them to take it down...while the uneducated public(due to the way the system is set up)could not get their money out of their 401ks in time.

Craig -

I don't have a lot of faith in people to ultimately do the right thing. As jurors, it seems to me people have been more interested in the book deals afterward than what they can accomplish to begin with.

Isn't the supreme court the last check on the laws of the land? I don't remember hearing about a lot of jurors deciding the outcome of those cases.

So, like I said, the ultimate check and balance on government...

But I imagine that in the future, there will be more elaborate qualification criteria asssociated with accepted interpretations of your precious 2nd ammendment. It probably means that no one will ever pry your weapons from your own particular "cold dead hands". It also probably means the whackjobs and foreign nationals of the future, as well as those with spotty criminal records will probably find it harder to arm themselves to the teeth against the rest of society.

It takes a few juries before you get to the Supremes and it takes ALL of them to what ONE of us can do locally.
How many prosecutions for marijuana cultivation have you hear of recently in California? How about laws prohibiting interracial relationships? Homosexual relationships? Juries are incredibly powerful.

It's like if we have to rely on gold coinage...guns in the streets will mean all hell has broken loose and no matter how much firepower I have, the government has WAY more. The only balance at that point will be a citizen military that follows the law instead of orders.

Remember also, most Supremes cases are to overturn prosecutions or unconstitutional law, not to uphold prosecutions. If a case isn't successful for the prosecutor it is less likely he will seek another trial, and in some cases he may not be able to. Losing at the taxpayers expense, or against their will is not good for a prosecutorial career.

Craig -

I wouldn't want all hell to break loose and have a complete breakdown where people are mindlessly roaming around with weapons. My point is, even though a single juror can get a case to the supreme court, ultimately, the 9 people in the supreme court make the last decision. They even decide what cases to even hear. Those 9 are appointed by the same corrupt and incompetent people causing a lot of the issues and propelling the corruption in this country. Only as an armed citizen do I feel there will ever be any final recourse.

And before you say that a populace that does not have all of the might of the US military can win I would like you to think about how we are losing to people armed with nothing more than hatred of the US, some improvised explosives and an AK-47. The same sort of tactics were employed in Vietnam and that didn't turn out in our favor.

There has been a lack of investment related discussion here today. Any one buying or selling that will assist others in their decisions today?
G

Holding on to a medium position of C from yesterday afternoon, with a small gain. Market's not giving me much right now.

Sorry about the OT.

Well, I was about to engage a debate about whether the commercial banking industry is engaging in Maoism or Marxism.

:0

In what way do we materially differ? If one believes that gun restrictions against mentally defective people, violent people and people who are not U.S. citizens are warranted (no pun intended) then brother, we totally agree.

If on the other hand you feel that any criminal, any mental defective, anyone with any background regardless of criminal history or from any nation regardless of time in country enjoys a free and clear right to gun ownership big enough to drive my Hummer through, well then, we disagree. But since you brought it up, tell me...In what way precisely do we disagree?

Too bad the lawyers litigated most of the gun manufacturers out of the U.S. Who wants manufacturing and jobs when you can have liability and insurance as an economic base until the bailouts hyperinflate the USD into oblivion.

Anyone attempt to find a public stock pure play gun manufacturer in the U.S. lately? I think there's one ...

what gun stock is there?

I have been to a number of outdoors trade shows since Obama was elected and the only guys doing big business are gun/ammo booths, everyone else is having a gard time making enough cash to pay for booth space.

Sharkie, what has crime history got anything to do with citizenship, are you implying that only non-US citizen criminals are going crazy shooting their guns? I am still neutral on gun ownership, though my house has been burgled before. And this guy had tried to shoot the window down with a pellet gun. Are you saying that i should not have a right to defend myself if i am not a citizen? Disclosure: I still dont own a gun, I am not crazy or have any criminal record but believe owning a gun is a serious decision and should not be taken lightly

I own a few but lets be real.
There is no shortage or danger of shortage in this country, period.

http://www.colt.com/

http://www.smith-wesson.com/webapp/wcs/stores/serv...

thanks doc

another blackswan?

http://tinyurl.com/dk2p2b

Gold & Precious Minerals
GFMS Bullish on Gold in 2H/09
David Christie, P.Geo. - 416-863-7141
david_christie@scotiacapital.com
Trevor Turnbull, MBA, MSc - 416-863-7427
trevor_turnbull@scotiacapital.com
Event
■ GFMS, a leading gold sector consulting group, presented its 2009 forecasts
for gold supply and demand trends.
Implications
■ GFMS expects further gold price retracement near term with a potential low
in the $800/oz range. Also like us, GFMS sees a bullion price rebound in the
fall. Their prediction calls for spikes as high as $1,100/oz.
■ GFMS believes the upside for gold in 2H/09 is predicated on investor
demand continuing to be strong based on a soaring U.S. Federal deficit and
an increasingly risk-averse outlook. Inflation is considered too far out to
significantly influence this year's gold bullion buying.
■ According to GFMS, the supply trend appears to be flat for 2009 as scrap
sales should net against flat mine production and lower central bank sales.
■ GFMS believes demand is dependent on sustained investor buying as dehedging
and jewellery/fabrication continue to be lower in 2009.
Recommendation
■ In the above near-term gold price scenario, we expect gold equities to likely
underperform bullion, with established mining companies holding in better
than emerging and junior producers.

Yeh thanks Photogray. The email indicated that IB would attempt to unlock the account withing 24 hours of my acknowledgment of the day trading guidelines, so I'll give them another day.

Posting this affair will hopefully help other newbies avoid the same pitfalls.

Old G, I swear, I want to pay you to show me how you use IB. I have saved that graph and will try to rebuild it on IB. I knew I was only scratching their surface.
Question, did you manually place vertical MACD lines or was it done by specifying in chart paramaters?
Also, can you save chart parameters or do you rebuild them every time
tia

Dr. Strangelove - We do listen to you, or at least I do...

In addition to RGR, there's SWHC. I've brought this up a couple of times as well, even last year when these were at their lows.

"Posting this affair will hopefully help other newbies avoid the same pitfalls."

Was this a result of excessive trading activity or something else? After establishing my account I traded quite often and they began limiting my buy activities through an approval mechanism. Sent me a nasty gram as well, telling me I'd violated SEC rules. I figure these SEC rules were written by HB&B for the benefit of HB&B. Free market???? Not in your lifetime, pal!!!

The second time they put me in the penalty box without a nasty gram. I think the penalty was 30 days, not sure... Seems like they've loosened the leash a bit though, or I've grown accustomed... maybe they didn't trust me at first?

Vertical lines were placed manually using tool at top of chart screen.
Yes, you can save chart parameters, either for a specific stock (file/save chart) or as a template (file/save chart template).

If I told you that every gun is a loaded gun then would you trust me? Full disclosure: I accidentally shot a hole in my floor a few weeks ago...

Being locked out of your account means you cannot even sell if an emergency situation were to occur? That didn't/hasn't/won't happened to me, boy would that bite....

I won't ask what happens if your $25K account happens to fall with market to say $20k... I guess you'd be under watch alert, LOL!

Yep, 5.89

What are seeing to take a decent size position in FAS?
I ask because I'm always trying to listen to what the market is telling me - but I get distracted.

The number of shares is 5x1. 2 days ago the total valuation was 1.67B, yesterday 1.62B, today... http://nexalogic.com/fasfazloss-o-meter.html

In the last 15 mins alone yesterday they lost 1.4%.

It's truly mind boggling.

BTW, they refuse to answer my queries.

Using iPhone here.

Bloomberg App just great.

Globe And Mail news app good.

Awkward to use with Cara. Screen too small.

May require 'new' link beside 'edit' for the sake of convenience.

Preview not xackly practical.

dang you david!

you and your math! :' )

...I'll let her buy the drinks...

Thanks for the welcome. I live in the SE US, have been retired for several years and partly live the life recommended by Kaimu (in the country on several acres of land and totally out of debt, but own no gold or silver).

Re the stock market, I am down about 25% and am totally invested in gold/silver stocks, or cash. I know most would recommend a different allocation, but if all the stocks went to zero, I could still sleep at night. I have held some of these stocks too long, but am basically not a trader.

The most helpful totally new knowledge I have gotten from Bill and community is options trading. I had always considered that something only real gunslingers used. I now realize that some options trading can be quite conservative. I have tippy toed into them and have made a small amount of money. Since I am probably more of hold on guy than I should be, I am using options as something of an offset tool. For example, I own EGO and sold covered calls on all shares. Don't recall exactly, but think the shares were selling at about $8.50 and I sold July $12.50 cc for $.50. Today, I put in a limit order to buy them back at $.20. So far, the low is $.25.

Earlier, I could not sell puts, because I use Scottrade and they do not allow it. I have now opened an account with Optionsfirst, which is in some way affiliated with Scottrade (subsidiary?), so can now sell puts. I wanted to sell puts on SLW June $5 for $.65, but SLW moved up while I was getting the account established and I will not chase it. I already have some SLW and if it moves up about 10 to 15 percent, I will sell covered calls. If it goes back to the point where I can sell 3 month $5 puts for $.65, I will do that.

Sorry I got rather long winded while just intending to thank you for the welcome.

Well, we all buy the adage "What people know isn't worth knowing." A corollary would seem to be "By the time you have solid reason(s) to buy, it's too late."

You are absolutely correct. The British had been billeting troops in private homes whether the colonists approved or not. The writers were well aware of this and with it fresh in their minds provided a means to prevent any subsequent government from having such a free hand.

This is why banning assault weapons is totally unacceptable. The Second Amendment only mentions the right to bear arms which we made no distinction of type since at the time a gun was simply a gun.

The Swiss are the most able to defend their country — they not only require all males to serve in their equivalent of the National Guard, but the keep their government issued weapons at home.

There are many sport shooters as well. I have heard, but can't verify, that during the two World Wars some Germans who violated Swiss borders were shot with powerful and silent air rifles.

"In fact most if not all jurisdictions do have some prohibitions against gun ownership for those with bad records/incompetence, demonstrating the fact that the second amendment is not being strictly interpreted."

All states, with the exception of Illinois and Wisconsin, have must issue laws for carry permits for law abiding citizens. Some are for concealed carry and others for open view. Many require a safety course before issue — good idea. They include instruction in what conditions allow or deny the use of a firearm.

Convicted felons may not possess firearms and if caught with one are supposed to go back to the can. I saw "supposed' because I know of one local police woman who was shot by a felon who had been found carrying twice and was not until after her shooting. Fortunately she survived, but quit the force (Can't say I blame her.)

IMO there is no excuse for not enforcing any gun violation to the fullest extent.

Grym,

Fine points re: the Swiss. But let's examine a few critical differences between the Swiss and ourselves here in the U.S.

"Switzerland is one of the richest countries in the world by per capita gross domestic product. Zürich and Geneva have respectively been ranked as having the first and second highest quality of life in the world"

"Switzerland has a more flexible job market than neighboring countries and the unemployment rate is very low. Unemployment rate increased from a low of 1.7% in June 2000 to a peak of 3.9% in September 2004. Partly because of the economic upturn which started in mid-2003, the unemployment rate is currently 2.8% as of February 2008. Population growth from net immigration is quite high, at 0.52% of population in 2004.[37] Foreign citizen population is 21.8% as of 2004,[37] about the same as in Australia. GDP per hour worked is the world's 17th highest, at 27.44 international dollars in 2006.

"Switzerland has low tax rates by Western standards; overall taxation is one of the smallest of developed countries. Switzerland is an easy place to do business; Switzerland ranks 16th of 178 countries in the Ease of Doing Business Index. The slow growth Switzerland experienced in the 1990s and the early 2000s has brought greater support for economic reforms and harmonization with the European Union.[38][39] According to Credit Suisse, only about 37% of residents own their own homes, one of the lowest rates of home ownership in Europe."

(source for above info wikipedia)

Jonah Goldberg writes: "Switzerland also has a generous social-safety net. Fat pensions, childcare subsidies etc. Indeed, much of Europe is designed as if Hillary Clinton ruled everything west of the Urals. Even our beloved friends in Fair Britannia do not consider the term "welfare state" to have any negative connotations.

One of the reasons this has been politically feasible in Europe is that Europeans are a bunch of boneheads when it comes to economics. But another reason — according to my theory — is that race hasn't been much of an issue. Politically, it's a lot easier to support a safety net when the safety net only helps people just like you."

I agree with Goldberg. Our diversity is our weakness, if you will. The Swiss are characterized by a fairly homogenous racial composition combined with a dual fear that either the Soviet Union, or to a much lesser degree, Germany may one day invade.

All the reindeer countries have great social net, health care, pensions, welfare, all are fairly homogenous and have low unemployment rates anyway.

We are, on the other hand, the wild west. The last western nation to administer death by state. last on the educational achievements, first on the national debt, last in science, last on the personal savings rate. I'm not being literal but those are basically our positions. We are, my friends, a nation in decline. And these people with guns, shooting up the schools, the post offices, the churches, the workplaces, these are the canaries in the coal mine.

missed the big run up already it looks like.

Nothing against Melissa Lee. Honestly, she's totally cool and I probably would have done the same thing the producer or whomever did and put her in as host of Fast Money, it's a natural and correct choice.

That said, I really miss Dylan Ratigan.

"Bill,

Is there some way we can limit the discussion on this board to markets and let people who want to talk about their non-market related pet loves/hates talk somewhere else better suited to that discussion?"

Do that, and all of the color, the flavor, the depth and 3 dimensionality that makes this forum great will be lost. Whatever anyone's feelings about me, and I can honestly say I don't understand why I'm such a controversial figure....we have people on here who want to shut down the Federal Reserve. Overthrow the government and it's currency. All I want to do (today) is make sure certifiable lunatics don't get guns.

So here's a shoutout to the authors of all those complaint letters that Bill keeps telling me about. Actually I'd pay a lot of money to see them. To all of you, mail me directly and try to pursuade me of the error of my thinking, but be sure to do so using logic and sound arguments so that you can demonstrably "win" the debate. I love being shown how I'm wrong, it's truly when I feel I learn the most. If you care enough to want to get me banned, you should care enough to want to reform me:)

....Like today for example when I didn't short Alcoa and then did so too late in the move to make any serious money. Then even though I knew that bottom was buyable at seven fifty my ego was bruised and I was too attached to the IDEA not the reality of my previous short.
Making money on the long side feels like you're getting lucky. On the short side, it feels like TAKING money. Odd, eh?

shark_attack -

Swiss don't fear invasion. Any student of history knows this country is surrounded by the Alps and managed to stayed neutral during WWII. Swiss gov't controls everything including the ownership of your television and it can afford a social welfare agenda because of it's tiny population. In essence, Swiss control poverty by restricting foreigners seeking citizenship only to the very wealthy. Has nothing to do with race and everything to do with your deposit balance. Have you opened a Swiss account? It takes seven figures and a recommendation from your local banker.

I am the first one to acknowledge that the U.S. is far from perfect, but comparing social programs in Switzerland (population 7.7m) and the United States (population 300m+) is absurd. You speak of Switzerland as if the ability to export social problems is a good quality! Its a lot easier to have robust social programs when you take little part in the solution to global problems. And I ain't talking about banking problems. I'd like to see some data as to how many political refugees Switzerland has granted status to over the last 50 years? Diversity is by far our greatest strength!

Good article, thanks. Fed is targeting purchase of up to 7 yr treasuries, if my memory is correct.

interesting, these guys are using TBT to short, that means some of these ultra funds can be held for extended time....

Sorry if any stocks below were removed. I do not have the latest list.

BBY
IBM
SNDK
AMZN
KSS
BBBY
WFMI
TM
ORCL
DNA
CHA
ABV
CTSH
TTM
GG

There was a lot of discussion about this on BNN. Apparently the Russian government will be forced to bail out Lada for the 3rd or 4th time so that the jobs it generates are not lost...

They also talked about why Ladas have heated rear view windows.

Bill,
It might be better if user is able to just remove particular subjects to a bin folder & the whole chain following it is hidden for them/goes away (for example all the posts quoting this subject relevance refer to the original comment# from seadog & if I as a user dont want to follow the chain, i remove the original entry & everything following that is hidden), rather than editor removing it to a separate stream for everyone reading it. Then we would have to go to multiple places to read the blog. Sometimes users make a quick comment on one irrelevant subject and then post other useful information.

But overall we also dont want this blog to stray too much away from investment topics. When you feel its going that way, its time to add another rule

My 2 cents

its OK now, but as the community grows I can see it turning into another marketwatch where you have to scroll through 15 posts to find something useful. That and you need to post more Bill with all your free time. : ')

Regardless of what they say, it seems to me that trading is inherently a high-risk/high-stakes game. Julian Robertson, George Soros, Bill Miller, T. Boone Pickens, Warren Buffett. These are larger than life guys who make/made larger than life bets using larger than life position sizes.

The amount of leverage Goldman traders are using doesn't surprise me.

Bill,

I like it the way it is! There is a nice random stream of consciousness going on. I easily scroll through the posts I don't want to read. Maybe some tagging system could allow people to scroll quicker through the topics. One symbol means a political, another a trading post ECT. If the topics are split up into different pages this sight will lose the charm and could become quite dull. The diversity of thoughts and the free flow of ideas would be ruined. Example:

Trading Page:

I'm long FAS.
I'm long FAS.
I'm long FAS.
I'm long FAS.
I"m long FAZ
I"m long FAZ
I"m long FAZ
I"m long SLW
I"m long SLW>
I"m long SLW>

Political page:
Timmy Stinks
Timmy Sucks
Timmy is a moran
Eliminate the Fed
Gold is real Money.
Gold is real Money.
Gold is real Money.

IMHO a mix of these great thoughts and trades is best.

All communities evolve over time, and as this one has grown to a certain size it should do the same. Two years ago I would have argued (and did) for a single thread. Now it sounds as if it's time to split the off-topic conversations (most of which I enjoy reading) into a separate room.

Fox1 offers a solution that would seem to require no technical changes.

For those who want a single stream, the chatroom can continue to pull in all posts.

I would simply keep two windows open on the toolbar, one for market-related comments, one for off-topic.

Bill -

I've always found a site monitor to work well. Surely someone who spends a lot of time here [you know who you are] and shows some good judgement would be up for such an honor. Just a friendly person who steps in and reminds the community to stick to the markets and not run amok over controversial topics LIKE GUN CONTROL! Equivalent to a hall monitor telling the kids to get back to class once the bell rings... just avoid censorship.

Cheers.

...now at +115...it will be a volatile open

I can agree that we are in a state of decline and have been, IMO, for at least three decades. Economically and to some degree socially in that those attributes which were a major part of our cohesiveness, a predominate religion (at least nominally and traditionally) patriotically and before becoming so mobile, geographically.

I guess decline as the classification is debatable because in several ways I would say we have improved — I can't speak with authority about racial conditions, but while there is no doubt many if not most minorities are not at average income or living conditions, at least the overt discrimination I witnessed in Alabama in 1963 is in decline.

Also, I would say women are better off with more options in the workplace. My mother, had to quit teaching when she and my dad married and my mother-in-law was fired when the factory where she worked discovered she was married.

I do not believe that economics should make any difference in the application of the right to own guns.

Neither do I see social welfare programs as relevant to the issue.

Deficiencies in status or income if causing violent behavior, as you seem to believe, have certainly been in evidence at all periods in our history and are no excuse, nor should they change our constitutional rights.

No one at any time has been any poorer than my paternal grandparents a century ago — a coal miner before unions, nine children, at least one I know of lost to their living conditions.

Their native country, Sweden which you see as a sort of social utopia due to state provided benefits has a current tax rate which has been blamed for their extreme suicide rate.

If we have difference attributable to population, I see it as our illegal alien labor force which has been a growing problem due to exploitation by employers and could easily be stopped. No job — no reason to sneak in.

I think your last paragraph is out of date in the wild west aspect, the science problem is a recent problem in education, but obviously not in accomplishments — medical, space, inventions. The savings rate we have apparently been able to pass on to some degree to other nations and are beginning to reverse here.

We hear more about every crazy person's behavior with 24/7 news, but while we may led in gun deaths other countries kill many more people with a variety of means.

2nd ave -

"DSL- I remember hall monitors. That person would probably have to be someone with no plans to ever attend a CTAB conference, except incognito ;)"

Okay. How about a lunch supervisor with jack boots like the one that kicked me when I was only six years old.

TOF- This is a condensed overview of SQM.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM) is a Chilean producer of specialty plant nutrients and chemicals. It operates nine production plants and its business is divided in four areas: Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN), engaged in the production of fertilizers and nutritional solutions under the Ultrasol, Qrop, Speedfol and Allganic brands; iodine extraction and the production of iodine derivates; lithium exploitation and production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium metal, and the production of industrial chemicals, such as sodium nitrate, potassium nitrate, boric acid and potassium chloride, among others. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries and affiliates, the Company has commercial offices in more than 20 countries located in Europe; North, Central and South America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Oceania. In addition, the Company’s products are sold in approximately 100 countries through its worldwide distribution network.

I had my wife look at the balance sheet last night and she gave her approval. I like the lithium play here also. It trades in a tighter range than MOS, POT, etc.

If a technical solution such as "ignore the rest of this thread for today" is available, it would be good. Otherwise, I say lets try the restraint path. I find the first few posts of most threads interesting. Even gun control.

TOKYO (NQN)--Japan's core machinery orders climbed by a seasonally adjusted 1.4% from January to hit 728.1 billion yen in February, the first rise in five months, according to data released Thursday by the Cabinet Office.

-from Nikkei.com

Scanning quickly through the posts is no problem for me. In fact, I skipped past all of this thread until I had a moment to see if it was relevant. I'm new of course, so put me at the bottom, but if it is easy to do, perhaps 3 different forums: 1) Trading/markets. 2) Social issues. 3) All posts. I'd use (1) during the day and (2) after work. Those that can work/post during day can use (3), which is as it is now.

2nd
Someone with 2 by 4 in hand. We have one

vinod- he's a businessman..i've only seen him bring it up in situations where he's paid up front to use it.

How about just threading/nesting each individual posts and its replies? So all the replies only "expand" and show up when someone clicks on it?

That would cut down on a lot of scrolling on its own and be able to keep all the discussions in one place.

And make a rule that all non-trading/market discussions be titled with an "OT" mark in front for off-topic?

edit: one more thing, perhaps enable the user to choose that all discussions be expanded by default (i.e. so it looks just like now). In case anyone wants to keep the site as is.

Mac- I couldn't agree more.

These issues have occurred before: in the original Usenet newsgroups.

One of the most effective ways of dealing with this sort of topic fragmentation is to provide a 'threaded view', which shows you messages grouped by/from original post with new subject and then followed by the replies.

I propose that you provide that as an option so that people who prefer the date listing as it is today can follow the stream and people who wish to ignore side discussions can use the threaded view and simply not expand those threads and follow those subject-reply chains.

(there's a Wikipedia article to explain a threaded discussion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threaded_discussion)

I can't tell whose software you're using to run the site but there are some packages that have a threaded display as an option built-in. (phpBB does that, but is a full community forum package, probably overkill for a weblog)

Hope this helps

Mac,

Luckily I live on the west coast, so I can always trade the first hour or so and AH, but that is about it. I'm new to this, but have been keeping my ears open and am liking what I hear.

How about this?

Identify each user's skill level as greenpea - level 1, mediocre- level 2 or expert - level 3.

Allow readers the option to view all posts from level 1, level 2 or level 3.

Hopefully, you would end up with 3 different level trade groups. All levels would be on one thread discussing trades, news, social like it is now.

The newbies and lurkers might feel more inclined to participate if they knew they were conversing with people on their same level. Experts on the other hand, could hide newbie comments and read just the expert comments for the day.

What works is the personalities of the blog so provide more tools so members can create their own unique virtual identity (picture,avatar ect)

vbeanie

Not really. In the People's Republic of Massachusetts it is a "shall issue" state and is totally at the discretion of the local chief of police. Some of them absolutely refuse to issue concealed carry permits. Also, if you are convicted of a misdemeanor domestic charge, forget it.

Now THAT is an indicator for tomorrow, since financials were basically flat today in the US and so China is not just repeating what happened in the US. So as of right now, it suggests a positive open tomorrow for XLF. But then, the US futures are positive right now as well, which, I still believe, encompasses ALL the relevant information at this point in time for predicting tomorrow's open.

at $7.17 for the 1000 shares I purchased at $6.17.

David- Apart from Hang Seng H-financials, noticing other (small) signs of financials coming to life in Asia:

http://tinyurl.com/dzzg62

"Insurance and electronics stocks were leading the rally in Japan, with Tokio Marine up 3.2%, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance up 3.2% and Sony up 3.5%. Sharp was up 5.4%, having fallen 6.1% Wednesday after it cut its earnings outlook.

"Financials and builders were gaining in Korea with KB Financial up 2.6%, Daewoo Securities 3.2% higher and Hyundai Engineering up 1.1%."

David,
Wasn't the Hang Seng Hammered yesterday by 4%. Is this move just playing catch up with US markets.

I think David was referencing the financial sector only, which btw is now up 2.62% v 1.94% for the Hang Seng composite.

http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/

2nd- So the real question here must be...Time to press the bet? I'm looking at these huge moves in companies that beat, and good moves in companies that miss, that the market has issues priced so low that if anything other than " We are pleased to report that we are now bankrupt" is seen as a positive. I know that sounds reckless, and I wont trade that way, but damn.

vinod- that would take the fun out of short squeezes ;)

2nd
I still believe that lack of selling, rather than a surge in buying, that is behind the gains in market. volume is very low and that is not how a rally should work.

vinod- if i'm betting on a game, and a lack of defensive ability (by the opposing team), rather than a surge of offensive strength (by the one i have money on) wins the bet- i'm still happy.

I surmise you have seen "Bowling for Columbine"? Guns are for killing. You are seven times more likely to have your handgun turned on yourself or a member of your family than EVER needing one to defend yourself. Perhaps the figures have changed with drive-bys and gang wars but the fact is guns, especially handguns are just too easy to get. 500 million guns in America? WOW. Are we counting the hundreds of thousands of guns that get stolen from police arsenals? Canada has a huge problem with our guns buying their drugs sparking turf wars conducted in the broad daylight. In the past we sent our disaffected youth off to the crusades or some foreign legion or other to work off their frustrations but that strategy seems to not be working any more. Would you suggest we confiscate guns? Limit one per head of household? Turn them into plowshares?

bobbyo, the US market dropped a lot yesterday, and so last night it was natural to see Asian markets drop as well. Each US evening, the Asian shares open based on the way US markets closed on that day.

That's a great observation, vinod. All it means is that many people are still skeptical, but as time goes on and the market stays flat or moves up, more and more money will join the market. That's why, I think, 2nd_ave is bullish -- he is not seeing any "standing passengers" yet on this "rally train." I agree with him, and that's why I am still holding FAS.

Had a thought...There is a subject line in each entry, some are obvious replies to previous entries, thus threads. What if there were a series of check boxes next to the subject line when one initiates a comment. One box, is for "trading" one is for "fundamental analysis" one is for "macroeconomic analysis" one is "general". Each could be color coded so that once the comment is posted, the subject matter checked off by the author will have a letter code tr=trading fa=fundamental analysis ma=macroeconomic analysis and g=general, and could potentially be color coded also. This code/color, could be posted adjacent to the subject line. Any, replies within a thread would carry the original code. Therefore, a community member could just look for a specific color to represent the types of threads he wishes to read.

2nd. Ave,

What is it PST. 9:00 pm? And you are going to bed. The euro open is just a few hours away. That table might be red hot. I know the kiddies must of wore you out. What is the name of that Jethro Tull album? I don't mean Thick as A Brick.

I totally agree. Leave it the way it is.
The simplier the better.
Multiple threads are a pain and frankly will drive me away because it will take even longer to read what I'm interested in.

If you must change something then add an ignore button attached to a heading and so if like today "gun control" becomes a topic I can simply ignore all subsequent posts about it.

Alternatively, "non market" comments could be put into a seperate split so readers can choose if they want to go there.

Lastly, it would just be easier if "gun control" wasn't an item on a trading blog!!!

I've seen the light...2nds light...and I agree. The market looks like its going to move higher...

TOF- Yep, and yesterday afternoon. Sat on my hands the whole time. That's one of the few times I haven't pulled the trigger on a set-up. Look back in the blog, I posted some info on SQM for you. I did add to SQM yesterday AH for a 7% gain today. Still learning, listening...

My current stock lists i scan are Cara100, IBD100, and Precious metals. Will add Juniors soon. But IBD100 is also an excellent list you can get for cheap. either buy the Sat edition at your news stand for a couple bucks per week and manually enter them, or $19 per month to access articles and download the ibd100 off the web as excel file. the list comes out every friday after the close.

for those who are not familiar with "IBD", it is Investors Business Daily.

RE:>Last time I was in London there were a series of what they call "hot buglaries" — the bad guys with guns force their way in knowing there is no threat from the law abiding citizens.

Worse, a law abiding citizen in the UK and old man to boot living in an isolated part of the countryside met two burglers in his house with his shotgun. Wounded one of them and he got ten years for his troubles.

I don't know which should be abolished - guns or the legal system.

Just make sure when you come from the home page to click on 'new' so that every time that page is reloaded, you can simply skip to new messages. I find myself either switching from the home page to 'new' or to a suggested link in the chat and 'back' with brings me to new comments.

Please leave this site the way it is.

I wanna know what the punters here are doing in real or slightly delayed time? I look for 2nd's subject headings with no comments. If everyone follows similarly they're easy to catch.

Got a longer stock/economic discussion? Mark it appropriately in the subject heading.

Got something else to say? Ditto. I don't like the conversation, I scroll straight past.

Wanna destroy the collegiality of this site? Start splitting us up into different classes or force us to view multiple tabs.

It's too easy to scroll...

Nemo,
Interesting — just like I read about Britain — one person if he doesn't like you can short circuit your individual rights. Bummer!
Thanks for the info.
Grym

Wow, what a difference a day makes, SKF -13%?