[7:20am ET] Yesterday morning, following the conference call with our traders and publishing the Daily Report and Community Chat blogs, I departed for a day of meetings only to return to see that Geithner had painted the market red. But, I discovered that two of the statements I had made earlier in those blogs turned out to be prescient.
The headlines today read, “Obama, Congress and Treasury all moving to stimulate collapsing economy and rescue banks.” Interesting that words like that are used and few people have seen the spending bill or heard the plan from the new Treasury Secretary. All we heard were the words, “The bill won't be perfect – after all it's coming from Washington” and “Wait for it; Tim will be terrific.” ...Hardly inspiring words, yet this morning America is ready to move forward, feeling confident in the country's leadership. Waiting to hear the details.
The headlines today scream, “Where are the details Mr. Geithner?”
I also wrote that Monday had been eerily quiet and so yesterday was a time to be patient.
Sometimes the hardest thing professional traders can do is to simply observe the action, awaiting better entry points. But, every day brings new opportunities, so there is no need to force the action if the trade you want isn't there. Patience, patience, patience.
By the end of the session, the S&P had plunged -4.91% and we suffered too, down about -1.3% with our net long percentage cut to 33%. Not bad considering. I figure if you are going to go into combat, you need to avoid the incoming and save your ammunition for when it can be put to good use.
The question today is, who sold this market down at 11:00am ET, when apparently Tim Geithner started his remarks, and why?
In order to understand why markets do what they do, I first look at the initiatives and then try to figure out possible motives. As for yesterday, I don't think many of us were selling sufficient holdings to take the entire market down about -3% between 11:00am and 11:30am ET. That move was orchestrated. Given that the extreme action was centered in the Financials, and particularly the US Banks, which closed the session down -13.9%, obviously the people who have the most at stake in these banks were the sellers, unhappy that the Treasury Secretary was not giving them the details they have been wanting.
These bankers are in Washington today to testify in Congress. Just once I'd like to hear the question asked, “Did your proprietary traders dump on the Bank stocks between 11 and 11:30am yesterday morning, and, in doing so, were you trying to send a message to Mr. Geithner?” Then I'd like to hear the Senator's response to the non-answer, “For the record, I take that as a 'Yes'”.
The public will begin to understand equity markets when they accept the fact that it is, to many vested interests, simply a tool for negotiation, and our capital holdings are being moved around the board ahead of the king, queen, rooks, bishops and knights. Like it or not, we are the pawns.
Well, actually, as a manager of capital, I am a knight. The corporate CEO's are bishops. The public's legislative representatives in government are the rooks. The President and Administration are the queen. Bankers are king.
Why is the banker king, you ask? We live in a credit society where cash is king, printed by banks, spent by queens, on the advice of rooks, needed by bishops, who are supported by knights.
So, what is the definition of pawn?
1. Something given as security for a loan; a pledge or guaranty.
2. The condition of being held as a pledge against the payment of a loan: jewels in pawn.
3. A person serving as security; a hostage.
I have always said that the public is only a chattel, ie, a slave to the king.
Yesterday morning the king was unhappy with the queen. Today he gets to complain to the rooks. Financial Entertainment TV will be their to cover the match live.
Comments
the show begins at 10:30
www.c-span.org
"Eight CEOs of companies that received the first TARP funds testify before the House Financial Services Cmte. Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) said more TARP funds won't be available until Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and other financial companies explain how they used the Troubled Asset money."
RIMM down pre-market
Research In Motion Raises Subscriber Forecast, Lowers Profit View
http://tinyurl.com/beqfvj
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
AMAT - Price Target Lowered from $11 to $10 @ Friedman Billings
$bdi
7 day RSI 99.15, 7 week 67.89
$usd this morning
nice to see gold up this morning.
for some reason a simple 24-hour chart of the USD index caught my eye,
and looked as though it were ready for a quick drop below $85 today.
i think this would be fitting with the rise in gold. it looks poised to do so fairly soon.
but crude oil has me speechles.....
Thanks again, Bill
For the discussion on writing options. In this very volitle market, that's been the only reliable way (I found at least) to make money.
Bankers to account for themselves
Just once I'd like to hear the question asked, “Did your proprietary traders dump on the Bank stocks between 11 and 11:30am yesterday morning, and, in doing so, were you trying to send a message to Mr. Geithner?
I won't be holding my breath for that one, Bill. But I also wonder, given yesterday's steep and orchestrated sell-off, if we might see the opposite today as the men who pull those traders' strings testify before committee. I won't be surprised at all if the market rallies while those guys are shoveling their b.s. like trenchermen.
On a related note, I was EXTREMELY disappointed to read that Obama has dismissed the Swedish solution to their banking crisis last decade with the absurd excuse that it wouldn't scale. What complete and utter nonsense, and no doubt he has come to this poor judgment with the counsel of Larry Summers. Obama may be a good and well-intentioned leader, but if he continues to surround himself with incompetent failures like Summers I despair for the future of his presidency.
Gold
To sell, or not to sell.... I'll keep it all until clarity materializes or the price shoots sky high.
Geithner is keeping his cards hidden until after the mafia cartel sorry, I meant bankers, testimony plays out.
The 11:00am sell off yesterday wasn't amusing... but I was expecting the slime-balls would do this. Maybe Ron Paul will be there today to put them on the spot?
Re: Bankers to account for themselves
n2s - "On a related note, I was EXTREMELY disappointed to read that Obama has dismissed the Swedish solution to their banking crisis last decade with the absurd excuse that it wouldn't scale."
It seems the new administration could be setting the stage to play some hardball, I'm going to wait patiently to see how this plays out. Yesterday was a very expensive day for the 401K crowd, I'm guessing someone took the game into a new inning.
Bases loaded, batter up!
Rusoro Mining
When do they come out with audited financial statement for the Oct-December 08 quarter? Where will they get their cash injection from now that GRZ's cash is not available to them?
Cara 100 Update
AMAT - estimates cut at RBC through 2010. Company guided to lower results next quarters, as demand continues to decline. Sector Perform rating and $9 price target.
BBY - added to Goldman's Americas Conviction Buy List based on new found status as sole dominant retailer in consumer electronics. Expect high sales capture from Circuit City and note that competitive dynamics will ease over the short-term. Price target at $33.
INTC
Intel's announcement of $7B investment in US base operations is interesting, I see they're not going to make the same mistakes from the last turn down. If I were interested in semi, I'd be looking to see if they're attempting to buy next-gen equipment on the cheap (300mm?), or simply add to their product base.
Still, the equipment makers are in for a tough time, keep an eye on their book to bill.
Business as usual
johojo, (a repeat to your comment yesterday in case you didn't go back)
I totally agree. This should be apparent to all. The people who engineered the scam are still in the banks. People who dodged their taxes "only made an honest mistake." The idea that we need these people so badly that they not only keep their jobs, but all their loot and new bonuses — all business as usual.
I see no change I can believe in.
The President, the Congress, the media continue a united panic attack on the American taxpayer.
The mantra is we need to restore confidence... seems appropriate for the biggest confidence game in the history of the world.
If we had "shot" the first one (banker) it would all be over and on the road to recover by now.
Instead we are letting the sweet talk lull us into a trance.
We need a million-man march on Washington — perhaps as the unemployed continue to grow in numbers it may reach critical mass.
I know people are tired of hearing the same complaints from Roubini, Faber, Shillling, and Schiff, but their repetition is just the mirror image of the popular media and old line economists who all went go the same song sheets.
I will continue to add to my gold position and I will hold U.S. Treasuries mutuals and bond ETFs until the inflation which seems inevitable explodes.
Rusoro droping hard
Down 12 % on the tse
Cara 100 Update
IMO - Upgraded to Neutral @ Credit Suisse
Yamana
I bought into the lovely looking fish hook pattern, I call it, on the one minute chart, bought it at eight fifty two, very good buy. I just sold the damn thing too early, that's all.
Oh sweet Jesus look at gold
Oh sweet Jesus look at gold go...I didn't have my eye on the futures and see what I did? Stunad!
TCK
Added to position @ $4.09
kitco is down
i love how kitco goes down when the gold price spikes.
lets see if this bird has wings.
I told you's people gold wuz
I told you's people gold wuz going higher
Depression Era Rallies
Not sure why, but yesterday I got to thinking about the oft quoted depression era rallies. They numbers are compelling, so I wanted to understand them better. Here are some of the rallies quotes:
11/13/29 until 4/10/30 (148 days) +46.8%
6/1/32 until 9/7/32 (98 days) +111.6
2/27/33 through 2/6/34 (344 days) +113.7
3/14/35 through 3/6/37 (723 days) +106.9%
3/31/38 through 11/9/38 (223 days) +62.2%
4/8/39 through 10/25/39 (200 days) +29.8%
Now for a different perspective. I looked at the time frame from the end of first 47% plunge in 1929 (DOW touching low of $195) until it finally reached bottom of $40, and analyzed the rallies that occurred in that time frame. I tried to look at each rally going from a lower low to a lower high.
Time from initial crash to bottom of crash: almost 2.5 years
Number of >10% rallies in those 2.5 years: about 10
Average size of those rallies: about 26%
Biggest 3 rallies: 52% (first one), 32%, 29%
Average duration of rallies: less than 1.5 months
Total drop below the low of first plunge: 80%
Removing 1st rally (biggest and longest (almost 5 months), probably because of denial and disbelief) you get average rallies of 23% with duration of about 1 month.
Of course, since each lower high in the above analysis was followed by a new, lower low, the number of crashes are similar but with bigger numbers, and usually, but not always, faster. The average crash size is 33%, the 3 largest (not including initial plunge) were 56%, 41%, 41%. These three biggest were the last three crashes in the first half of 1932.
Off the Nov 21 low, the SPX rallied 27% in 1.5 months, already greater than average size and about the average duration. While the 1930’s may have seen some great bull runs, they mostly (except the first one) occurred after the initial 2.5 year crash. We are about 3 months into our crash and they say the credit bubble is bigger. I’d say information is more widely disseminated, so my gut tells me the rallies will be shorter and the ultimate bottom will be reached sooner, so I expect a rough year ahead.
Also realize that all the above statistics, including the oft quoted optimistic numbers, are using trough to peak values. Look at some a chart from that era and you’ll see that often if you missed the bottom or top by a couple days, you can shave 20% or more off those gains. And there were often very strong pullbacks to shake you out, or subsequent crashes. I.e. after the 723 day 106.9% rally came a 6 month 49% plunge, giving it nearly all back.
Overall a humbling experience just taking a careful look at charts from that era...
SLV
was the trade.
Gold
Check ignition, may God's love be with you!!!
STUNAD!
STUNAD!
gold at $940?
And rising. Bought March GG 32.5 calls @ $2.00. This could be Bill's rocket ship. Hope I didn't jump the gun, but I'm going to take a gamble. Big volume in GLD.
Geithner's presentation
I was struck by the big build up, the anticipation, and then the non-event yesterday. All that hype and the reaction?
Where's THE PLAN?!?
Remember when Windows 95 was the big deal. Same pattern — and when it finally came out (in 1996, I believe) it was still not ready and needed multiple patches.
Message from Vern McCreary to Snowbirds
23 lines of prose from the 1977 NY Times, by Hal Borland
February
"After a February thaw you can see in any pasture how even dry grass
picks up enough heat from the sun to melt ice. Even with a two-inch
scum of icy snow, every weed stem and twig will have melted its own
tiny hole, making the snow look like elaborate 'punch work', as it
used to be called by embroiderers.
On the southside of a country house, where reflected sunlight has
begun to warm the soil, you may find crocuses in bloom, purple or
white chalices or that magnificent yellow that early bees can't
resist. Snowdrops, their petals whiter than the snow, will soon be
in bloom in sun-flavoured corners. Householders hungry for spring in
February may even have winter aconite with its crocuslike cups.
Most years you can find the tips of skunk cabbage thrusting up
through the ice in the bogs, brownish-green horns that at first seem
unrelated to plant life. They literally melt their way up through
the ice.
Before the month is out you will hear the blue jays calling, a
cheerful, musical two-note call quite unlike the raucous jeer they
have been uttering all winter. Tree sparrows will begin to sing.
Their songs are nothing like the music of song sparrows, but they
are sweet, high-pitched and surprising after having heard nothing
from them but a twitter for so long. Even the nuthatches will change
their inflection. They will still yark-yark, but happily instead of
querulously."
Decision On Rusoro
Decision on Rusoro quoted in National Post:
Financial Post article
Crude
Crude is dead!!! Yee-ha for alternative energy!!!
slw popping
still cash
Re: Message from Vern McCreary to Snowbirds
McCreary describes the view out of my window to a tee. Except I don't see the skunk cabbage yet (I'll go check on this, it's still a bit early I think).
The new Quant link on the top
The new Quant link on the top menu bar will lead you directly to the excellent daily technical analysis report from Pierre Brodeur. I hope everybody in the community reads Pierre's work daily. Pierre is part of Team Cara, and a contractor to Cara Trading Advisors. Our traders rely on his professional work, and so should you in my opinion. It's really very special to be able to produce his work here free of charge.
Re: Depression Era Rallies
Thanks for the post proudpapa. It always helps to put numbers in their proper perspective. Many thanks to the folks who comment not only on what they do, but why. I've been following the site for a while, thought I would take this opportunity to thank Bill and others. Have a great day, G.
"the public is only a chattel"
So true!!!
What a glorious day in the Gold market.
McEwen Offers For Minera, Hochschild Objects
"In the past, Robert McEwen has fashioned himself as an advocate for shareholder rights. In 2006, the former chairman and largest single shareholder of Goldcorp Inc. sued the company in an Ontario court, trying to block its plans to increase its share count by a whopping 67 per cent without giving shareholders a vote."
Globe
OMG...Gold does the
OMG...Gold does the proverbial moonshot. Does it see a thousand today?
Stocks drop
They drop when the yaps start flapping.
As for my Yamana early sale, all I can say is...
BLOODSUCKERS!!!!!!
OMG - Black Gold seems headed
OMG - Black Gold seems headed for the deep six.
Bought RIMM @47 lets see where it leads me
Bought RIMM @ 47.
Unloading SLW to keep profit
I sold my SLWBA options for 2.00 for a .55 profit and unloading my SLWCA options at 2.15 for a .65 profit. Still holding SLW stock but will unload when I see an intraday peak and reload on a intraday recycle. Taking profit is good! Holding on for a few extra cents is risky! This is my biggest single day profit of the year. Reminds me of 1999 when I made a quarter million a day.
Made amajor mistake
Bought BGZ @ 65.95 and sold in a hurry at 66.16. Could not control my nerves. Sold in a hurryalthough I was convinced market was going down
Learning tocontrol my nerves.
moving averages coincidence in gold?
chart of GLD shows today's break-out happened exactly as the 50 MA has moved up above the 200 MA for the first time since December 2006.
lets see some follow through w/ the shares and then we can turn to complaining about why crude oil is in the crapper!!! jj
Re: Bought RIMM @47 lets see where it leads me
Got in @ 46.57
The question now is...
... do you wait for a pullback in gold and related stocks to get a better price, or just jump in?
Re: Bought RIMM @47 lets see where it leads me
Nice Mark!
Sold my balance of SLW
at 7.14 for another nice profit. I am now 100% cash waiting to reload but patient. Good luck everybody.
Re: Bought RIMM @47 lets see where it leads me
I think we will both be happy. Seems way over sold....like yesterday.
Re: Bought RIMM @47 lets see where it leads me
At last earring I brought after hours at 82 which was down some 20.
Well, next day brought again at 66. And finally gave up and sold at 45.
Here we go again. It also smell like NT with problem of OPTION manipulation by executive
I asked yesterday why people
I asked yesterday why people would go long on close yesterday when it was obvious the selling was not finished. Well, the pop this morning triggered stop loss in my short positions. The more I trade, the more difficult it is. It is not enough to figure the top (I did it), short at good levels (I did it), and not to be shaken by a whipsaw (I failed). Just venting. I guess lots of things to learn. I also read Dr Elder's books on trading, the best I've read so far.
BTW, the SLW trade worked for me. In 6.25 yesterday, out 7 today. Hoping to rebuy it lower.
I told you guys the other day that 2009 is going to be a replay of 2008 gold and equity wise. So far so good. It all has to do with emotions.
Re: moving averages coincidence in gold?
We are at a major crossroads in the gold price, as well as large cap gold shares. The 13-week EMA is crossing over the 34 - week EMA and is going to cross the 89 - week EMA on the weekly chart for the S&P TSX Global Gold Index. The technical crossover on the weekly chart for the $US gold price has already occurred. This is a major technical crossover event signalling a rally in the gold sector beginning. Should be strong from this point until spring, though I think the highs in April may surprise all.
The $CAD gold price is at a record and will soon be heavily overbought, suggesting that the loonie could rally some against the buck with quantitative easing in the US. This may be the impetus to rescue some of the lagging gold juniors, which have grossly underperformed the rest of the industry.
My foot is getting tired
of trying to reach behind my back to kick my own ass for selling Yamana WAAAAYYY too early. Who knew? Who ever knows?
I do know I left a new motorcycle on the table. Ok, a Japanese bike but still.
Re: Crude
CP and Skater,
I read your commments and dumped 1/2 of my UCO that I have been trying to get out of for a couple of days.
What is your advice on getting out of the other 1/2 and what is your reasoning behind your statements "crude is dead and heading for the deep six!".
I hit the UCO sell button at 8.30 (bottom for the day).
I would appreciate your reasoning for making those comments
thanks again,
vb
Vikram Pandit
I am liking what I heard !
They are obviously lying as I know of folks whose refinancing requests were turned down.
crude oil
I've given up going naked long on crude. I'm trying one of those hedged plays - long March, short April, with the thought that the $6 price difference between the two months should narrow at some point prior to expiration. Bill mentioned this in one of his notes and if i recall correctly, that's what happened last expiration month so I figure I'd give it a shot with a small trade just to see how it goes.
BTU
EIA released coal spot prices today. Looking stable unlike oil spot. BTU to benefit from Obama stimuli (emissions sequestration). Better than oil as a major U.S. resource and USAF wants to tap it for liquid fuel.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/co...
Reloaded SLW and ABX at today's open.
Re: OMG...Gold does the
If it hits $1,000, I will personally invest everything I have in DZZ. I see absolutely no reason why this is going up and everyone I know/hear says they are invested in gold. This is THE BUBBLE.
After yesterday's action, it is ABSOLUTELY CLEAR to me that the market is going to test its Nov 21 lows and go through those lows.
Re: The new Quant link on the top
Thanks Bill, I have been waiting for the link. It will be invaluable just like The RSI screen. Unbelieveable free service. I am very thankful.
Bob
SLW investors can thank me...
..for the big move. Because, of course, after selling covered calls feb $7.50 strike a few days ago, I will now watch as it takes off and I keep my measly $1k and leave $10k on the table. Shucks.
BDI at 2055
Baltic Dry Index is up for 16th straight day. Signs of a recovery in the shipping industry are premature, but it'd a whale of in industry to trade in. Cautiously!
No position right now.
Why do they keep blaming real estate?
it was the wreckless lending and over leverage.
Re: My foot is getting tired
No, no, no Sharkie, buy the real deal, i have confidence in you, get back into the groove and you will be just fine, my fatboy is up for sale soon, got to get the ultra classic.
Maxine Waters
Usually dumb as a box of rocks.....today's pitbull of the day.
Finally the best most piercing questions of the session. It was worth the wait.
Re: Maxine Waters
If you look back to some old CSPAN video of an independent auditor of fannie/freddie you can see her take him to task for questioning the motives of them and their wonderful CEO Reyes(sp?). She is absolutely clueless of what was going on. She is only a showman and is campaigning for votes.
If I have to sit here and
If I have to sit here and watch Yamana go up anymore I'm gonna hurt somebody.
Actually I have to drive moms to a physical therapy deal in a bit, so I will be spared further evidence of my retardation.
SLW
I don't want to jinx myself but this could be the breakout we've all been waiting for. Volume is huge today. If we stay above 7 today, I'm thinking we're clear until at least 10 or 11 before it breaks down again.
Rob.
Geologix
Geez, I just noticed this, GIX.TO down 40%, with a day low of $0.11! Not exercising option on San Augustine, guess they couldn't line up the monay.
Funny thing is I bought some what I thought was on the cheap, took a beating on the position, finally bailed a few days ago for 20c, kicked myself as it went up to 25 over next few days, but now I don't feel so bad :)
So what's the scoop, can we just drop GIX from the radar now?
Re: OMG...Gold does the
I agree, but in the process of retesting the lows, the gold will skyrocket, just as it did in 3/08. Be careful. Dumb money is selling bonds and that money is piling on gold (instead of regular equities it used to), it's a powerful wave. I agree with Dr Elder that up trends can be sold but should not be shorted. I lost a lot last year trying to short oil and I was just one month early.
Re: Crude
VB - sorry bout the delay
1030 I was looking for an entry into UCO after the US Energy Dept Oil Inventory Report.
I wanted to get in & you wanted to get out.
UCO was making another new daily low.
Plan your trade & trade your plan.
I'll curb my enthusiasm.
Re: SLW
does look like a classic break out technically,
and fundamentally silver is looking good vs. gold which is historically a good sign.
i still believe the rise up for the PM stocks will be a difficult one.
i dont think it will make it easy for any of us. theres no way the stocks will follow suit should gold move up to $1000 in short order. i think there will be major abberations in price in both directions. periods of mass stock overvaluation vs. the metal and vice versa.
because the stocks have underperformed the metal for so long, a paradigm shift need occur before these bonds are fully broken. if we can close strong today without a bleed back into the close, our first strongest signal will be given that this may be occuring imho.
but none of this price action means much until we see the close.
so many large cap miners are at or just above their 200 MA's, breakouts on strong volume paint a very pretty picture for the charts, especially if we can end the week this way.
Re: If I have to sit here and
If you react emotionally, you should not trade. Congratulate yourself that you made money on the trade (as opposed of loosing) and move on and find another winning trade.
Re: SLW
i am in :)
Re: OMG...Gold does the
i'll wait for it to hit its top and then come back down 5% or so.
Evidence Of Stimulus Failure
Stimulus or no stimulus, the results will be the same except for monetary inflation...
The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are still dropping and hit 5.19% last week, so the effort to get interest rates lower has been successful, but that is where it ends.
The MBA says that applications for mortgages made the week ending February 6 were 24.5% lower than the week before. The drop from the same week a year ago was 43.9%.
The government may have an effective way to decrease mortgage rates, but it has still no conquered two other problems. The first is that banks do not want to lend to anyone other than the most credit-worthy applicants. The second is that no one sees a bottom to housing prices. Buyers don’t want to see their new homes drop another 10% in the next year.
Getting low-rate mortgages into the market as a single solution won’t do anything at all to improve the housing disaster. It’s a table with only one leg.
http://tinyurl.com/bkk7ag
Re: If I have to sit here and
Jack if we didn't have Shark's emotion on here, it would be very boring. Besides having an outlet for his emotion may keep him out of the Hudson if AUY goes to $11.
Senate Questioning
I just watched a little bit of the Senate Questioning. I am fairly impressed with Dimon of JPM. Seems to be willing to actually talk about what his company did with the money given to JPM. A question was asked by a panel member "how much new personal money have you invested in the company?" I only heard Lewis and Dimon say that they invested new money...everyone else said zero new money was invested.
Re: STUNAD!
do you have the stugots to buy back in here? that's one reason i'm comfortable buying on weakness...i have a hard time doing it on strength...
Re: Evidence Of Stimulus Failure
I would agree. Housing wont bottom until you have majority of consumers with 10-25% deposit and income verification.
My own tenants are now late on rent consistently every month. This is in a city where housing per sq foot is peanuts vs NYC. how can consumers then turn around and buy a home with cash deposit?
I can only imagine what is going on with rentals in manhattan.
In the end i think any measure to bailout the banks is going to lead to several bank failures. credit must contract. consumers must re-educate for new jobs cuz many of the jobs lost are not coming back. that takes time. and consumers must save money, which also will take a lot of time. as evident in the fact American's don't know the 1st thing about saving.
However there prob will be trading opportunities for the nimble. i am trying to stretch so i can trade accordingly.
PS: just browsed a job board and there are TONS of "Financial Advisor" entry level jobs. I guess the sales engine starts all over again.
Diversifying into Gold & Silver
Picked up in the past couple of hours DGP, the Powershares Gold Double Long, Yamana, and SLV, the silver ETF. I didn't re-enter SLW.
My reasoning is that I think gold will run faster than silver. Gold has a resistance between 940-950. A breakout could have a run to 1000 but the bankers will put in a hell of a fight which means the price may stall and consolidate before the breakout over 1000. Once that is accomplished, the sky is the limit.
I am leary of SLW. I know I've made terrific profits on it today and booked them but I am cautious as to a confirmation of such a large move up. $7.49 remains a line of resistance and could foil a further advance. I would prefer that SLW consolidate first. But for those holding SLW, good luck. Just beware of a intraday topping. Stochastics look topheavy.
williams %r & rimm
This indicator looks to have signaled a sell for RIMM prior to the drop by climbing into the -20 range. Anyone using this indicator to good effect? I'm not really familiar with it so may not be reading it right. I suppose you can always find some indicator that seems to have worked in hindsight.
Bill, have you/do you use this one?
Best wished to those in Indonesia
effected by the reported earthquake.
http://tinyurl.com/dkg8gb
Indonesia has issued a tsunami warning after an earthquake measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale.
Palm Breakout.
Missed PALM MOVE.What happened, I thought it would trade in sympathy with RIMM. Was this news driven!
Re: OMG...Gold does the
With so many stocks facing headwinds, inviting short positions, I have to say that I find any "short gold" thesis (beyond quick trades or partial hedges) a bit strange given the environment we're in. It takes all kinds to make a market, of course, but still - it seems especially dangerous to make a big bet against gold right now, following this breakout.
Our Congress is asking these CEOs for advice
just now. the horror.
UCO
brought UCO at 8.20
Re: OMG...Gold does the
"With so many stocks facing headwinds, inviting short positions, I have to say that I find any "short gold" thesis (beyond quick trades or partial hedges) a bit strange given the environment we're in. It takes all kinds to make a market, of course, but still - it seems especially dangerous to make a big bet against gold right now, following this breakout."
I have to totally agree with your post. However, I also realize that this breakout might just as easily have been a "breakdown" if Geithner's plan would have had any real substance yesterday. So far, the pm moves today seem to be a no confidence vote on the ability of the "change" gang to get a handle on the banking crisis. A single news conference with a realistic banking plan could precipitate a 180 degree reversal.
ugh...
everything moving south now. next leg down or head fake on grim testimony?
Markets
Just don't like the CEO's of Wall Street being force to go in front of congress and answer any question that might shine a little glimmer of light on their Ponzi scheme.
It's only a guess......
bought more ESLR
another 500 shares at $1.59, with the sell limit order at $2.5. The relatively high expected ESLR production cost, which all critics seem to be focusing on, is still 30% below the expected sales price, which leaves enough margin for ESLR to be profitable in 2009. The current stock price is way below what it should be given the expected ESLR profits.
The socialization of the US
The socialization of the US medical system begins.... in stealth and without meaningful debate....
http://tinyurl.com/c44ah5
I am tired of being treated like a mushroom by those who profess to represent my best interests. When will the indignation in the United States awaken massive social pressures? I suspect it is only a matter of time.
Re: Our Congress is asking these CEOs for advice
Taking advice from these CEO's is idiocy. If they're all so smart why are their banks insolvent and why didn't they protect their balance sheet.
Unfortunately, everyone in Congress besides Ron Paul seems more clueless than they are about financial matters.
I still think if Congress wants to trust the country in the hands of these inept bankers then they should be mandated to put all their pension money in these bank stocks or debt. If faced with that ultimatum, Congress would surely dump these loser banks.
Rob.
Smart
If we were smart we would have voted out every person in Congress that voted for TARP I. We had the list and knew the names. I wrote to many that voted against it the first time congratulating them only to have most of them switch their vote the second time as they were holding out for some pork.
I didn't vote for any of them. And I also voted for Ron Paul. By far, my proudest vote since I've been voting.
Rob.
2nd
Here's an idea. Let's call off the ESLR bet now, I won, it aint going to 18 no way no how, forget the book, order Vad's "How to scalp any market", send it to me, I will study it and send it back for you to keep. How's that?
End Game
I think we really need to figure out exactly what will happen if we let the irresponsible banks go bankrupt. As I see it, the only reason for these countless interventions using my kids' money is because of the What if's.
Noone really has spelled out what will happen without C, BAC, JPM, WFC, and any other insolvent bank. They only say what's happening now would be 10X worse if we didn't do anything. I don't buy it. I think it's just a big lie. Politicians are either too ignorant of financial matters or completely sold out to these few banks.
I'm starting to see and end game where one of these banks fail even with the 15 Trillion we've given them by then and nothing happens. What will congress say then?
I may be naive but I can't see any way my life would change without these banks. I don't need their loans. I don't use their credit. What is it we're all so afraid of with letting them fail?
Rob.
Re: Crude
vanillabean - My earlier comment on crude was because it was going nowhere(as of this morn). Those 2x/ultra's will eat away while waiting for crude to go up, why not take a long (if that's your desire) with USO or USL (USL would be my preference) because eventually crude will take off (but not while the economy and market are looking to stay in the crapper, crude needs an economy first).
Just my opinion, I don't know crap, so please don't listen to me...
What goes up, must come down
It's the oldest story in physics.
limits to bailouts & stimulus plans
Im thinking here's a limit how much we can bail. We're limited by the amount we can borrow. Once we hit the failed auction - or once the foreigners realize we're monetizing the debt, either way, Mr. Market will make itself felt and the buck will tank and commodity prices (and imports) will rise. Either that, or interest rates will skyrocket.
At that point, Congress will have no choice. It will not be able to bail any longer. Right now its free. The Fed and Treasury are Magic Piggy Banks with No Consequences Attached to their use. Its easier to ask the magic piggy bank for money than to risk an unknown (and potentially very unpleasant) fate.
oil contango trade
Oh and by the way, that oil contango trade is sucking wind for me right now. :) Turns out the $1.5 drop in front month oil ended up widening contango to $6.50, because April oil ended up dropping less than that.
I'm glad I just made a small bet and not a large one.
wrong wrong wrong
ive been disastorously wrong hte past while in short term calls on oil and the USD, never mind in gold.
HOU is my bain, i suspect it may be in teh dumper for a while, or am i the capitulation signal? will oil test the low 30's? jeesh...
IB account requirements
Just noticed Bill's comment about IB requiring a minimum $100,000 account size to trade options with them. Wondering when that came into being ... I've traded for a number of years with them and had less than that lots of the time and I trade options??
Re: The socialization of the US
mtngntx
There are two major areas in the bill that need to be looked at.
1...To subsidize premium payments for people who can no longer afford insurance and are flooding the hospitals/doctor offices with all kinds of sickness, disease, accidents etc.
Most states are force to pay these hospitals for their hospital care.
In a nut shell, the taxpayers are going to be forced to pay the hospital bills via....subsidizing these insurance premiums.
This should in no way affect employees of the government, since they are conveniently "taken care of" via a separate government insurance program.
2....To keep track of the second class people electronically.
ie..terminally ill people will be rationed any effective cure that may cost the insurance company more then they are willing to pay out for improving your health. It's cheaper for the insurance companies to let a person die then pay for their health care.
It's a win...win for the huge insurance conglomerates. So they invented STIMULUS.
It would have been less painful for everyone, if those huge banks were left to go bankrupt 2 years ago when they invented double trick accounting, and "every person" was put in survival mode together. Instead the greedy bankers invented TARP.
Stimulus and Tarp need to be stopped, but it's to late for the second class people of the USSA. The crooks will survive, and the second class society is going to be force into a survive or die life style whether they like it or not. You will not get a Democratic vote in this Socialist choice.
Mr. CEO, What Did You Do With the TARP $ You Recieved?
Well Mr. Senator we
- Paid Bonuses to Retain Talent
- Took delivery of our Private Jet
- Shorted Our Stock
However, most of it went right back to you Mr. Senator to keep this Ponzi alive. Our checks are still clearing aren't they? Good. Then keep up the good work!
limits to bailouts & stimulus plans
Im thinking here's a limit how much we can bail. We're limited by the amount we can borrow. Once we hit the failed auction - or once the foreigners realize we're monetizing the debt, either way, Mr. Market will make itself felt and the buck will tank and commodity prices (and imports) will rise. Either that, or interest rates will skyrocket.
At that point, Congress will have no choice. It will not be able to bail any longer. Right now its free. The Fed and Treasury are Magic Piggy Banks with No Consequences Attached to their use. Its easier to ask the magic piggy bank for money than to risk an unknown (and potentially very unpleasant) fate.
UCO straddles
UCO broke $8 this PM. Took profits and rolled the 9 puts to 7.50 (!) and the calls to 9. These values were unthinkable 4 days ago. Note 9 days to expiration. A 7.5-10 straddle returned +32% from this morning.
You can check the prices at http://nexalogic.com/strangles.html, see the Feb 2009 worksheet.
Treasury Auction
I'm guessing went well again today. Wonder if we'll ever see that 2% target on the 10yr..
Makes me wonder if the treasury lepers are in bed with the Fed and banks to drum up a healthy scoop of BS to finance their debt while skimming cream off the top. All behind closed doors and fully manipulated, of course. When will/are they get around to smacking gold back down?
It likely isn't gold's best day in the sun because that would be way too easy. I'm hanging in on the gold though just because the entertainment is payment o-plenty...
Looks like its passing
Turn on the printing presses. let's see how the markets react into the close.
Re: The socialization of the US
Just want to go on record as saying that I do indeed believe that healthcare reform and some sort of "socialized" system are enevitable and necessary. I think that the nature of this system and the consequences of it for both service providers and end-users should be a matter of debate and discussion... not the advent of some behind-the scenes-wrangling by social engineers and proffessional policy hacks envisioning another centralized collosal beuracracy fiefdom and then ramming it into reality down our throats steathily obfuscated in some unrelated piece of legislation. I am not 2 years old and should not be forced to take questionable medicine duplicitously coated ...without explantation, consent, and comment. These guys are relentless, their actions are unconscionable, their motives questionable...They are incorrigible and should be vociferously painted as such.
Re: The socialization of the US
They've got to get these banks under control and if financial institution socialization will do that, I'm all for it as well. It's not the real-estate that's worthless, it's the paper tiger that isn't worth a damn. Just make sure these crooks spend the rest of their lives in crossbars motel.
Re: Looks like its passing
Was it not priced in the markets?
I think than only emotions matter now.
My take is, after hope is destroyed, new bear rally will begin.
Re: The socialization of the US
Then I'd like to go on record by saying I believe in health care reform also. Heath care costs needs to be brought down.
There needs to be a law that prohibits doctors and dentists from having mansions bigger then the nearest hospital.
Re: Looks like its passing
But what happens when they realize the x millions who are unemployed now, are still unemployed next month, and the month after, and the rate of unemployment rises?
Re: Crude
Remember way way way back in the day when the weekly OIL inventory report was the most important market news. Now it is hard to find any mention of it what so ever. Just a comment on how quickly market sentiment changes.
Re: Looks like its passing
"But what happens when they realize the x millions who are unemployed now, are still unemployed next month, and the month after, and the rate of unemployment rises?"
First things first, we need to neutralize the dark forces then work on repairing the damage. Take control over the banks that cannot control themselves, storm and pillage their castle, eject them so they can no longer sling arrows and hot boiling oil on the villagers gathered beneath their tower.
Re: The socialization of the US
I think you're targeting the wrong crowd. Most doctors I know are slaves of the insurance companies and government. What other industry is there where the professional bills a certain rate to cover costs and take home some profit but then the insurance companies and government get together and pay only 60% of the bill.
And the physicians cannot bill patients the difference as the insurance companies lobbied for that to be illegal. So, next time you're in the doctor's office and they can only cover two or three of your problems and rush you out to see the next one, just remember they're only getting 60-75% of what they're billing.
Also, most of the doctors I know make less than your average Congressman and have to see 30+ patients a day to do that.
Insurance companies partnered with government have brought us to where we are in healthcare. Do you really want more of that?
Also, guess what doctors receive for seeing Medicaid patients. $5 bucks!!
Rob.
Possible internet space play reporting after hours
AKAMI, AMAZON etc, have beat. Looking at EQIX into close.
Re: Looks like its passing
I totally agree. but by that time our president will be Chinese, and not a Chinese person born in America.
medical and financial
These politicians are just over the top. You want to solve the housing problem, give everybody a 2.0% loan and extend it to 40 years, if the borrower can't pay foreclose. If the bank can't handle this interest rate payment plan foreclose on the bank. All I want is the same health plan the good senators have, problems are solved. Unfortunately, because we are so corrupt any easy solution will not be looked at unless the corrupt politicans and bankers make a ton of money. I really hate to feel like this but I don't believe what I hear anymore, just what I see, we need some ethics badly in this country. I now believe that the only way to beat these crooks is invest in gold and silver (long run), or trade very short term. The market right now seems to be corrupted.
SLW - Was there any news?
17M shares is a lot on a day Silver is up but only 3% and slw up 13%.
Just curious and not complaining.
Re: 2nd
"Let's call off the ESLR bet now, I won."
Let me respond using your own words, alright?
"no way no how"
Re: The socialization of the US
"Insurance companies partnered with government have brought us to where we are in healthcare. Do you really want more of that? "
My understanding is this is more fact than fiction. That said, there's something terribly wrong with health care (from my perspective) that can and will be rectified eventually.
Objects at rest tend to stay at rest, and knowledge is power - The problems will never be overcome until the collective level of conscience is raised to a level high enough to fully comprehend the problem.
Anyone read this?
http://tinyurl.com/ct4ono
VMW
Reuters this morning speculates that the company (CSCO)might want to buy VMware (VMW), a company in which already holds an equity stake; in fact, Cisco upped its stake in the company in November when Intel decided to reduce its own VMW holdings. The story asserts that Cisco’s interest in VMW “could be more serious than many on Wall Street believed, as the network equipment maker searches for new sources of growth.” This is not a new idea; for instance, there was widespread speculation on Cisco’s interest in VMW back in September. The Reuters story says that according to “a person familiar with the matter,” Cisco held informal talks with VMware parent EMC on the possibility of a deal.
MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
ALOHA !!
To those who are watching the Senate hearings and impressed with JPM CEO and any others I offer three companies name ... MAIDEN LANE LLC ...
Did Dimon fill us all in on the $138bil they took the day Bear Stearns failed?
Confused? Well one name but three versions ... MAIDEN LANE 1, 2 and 3 !!!
Since I do not have a TV can someone please inform me if this company has been mentioned at all? It should be a hot topic especially for JP MORGAN and AIG!
To understand this go to FRB H.4.1 ...
Will someone please ask these idiots as to their "Heirarchy Reports"? They are all Peer Group #1 banks ...
Please ... this is just another dog and pony show bought and paid for by the same banks getting "grilled"!! HA!!
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY !!!
Who will eventually own MAIDEN LANE 1,2 and 3? And when will there be 4,5,6 and 7?
Re: Crude
Chickenpookie, don't forget that USO will also keep declining over time, for as long as we are in a contango. Don Coxe said many times that the current situation is very similar to 1974, and then said that oil was in contango for all of 1970's and that contango is a normal situation for oil.
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
Here's a start, I gotta go right now...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maiden_Lane_LLC
Re: Crude
David - This is why I think USL would be my preference, if I were to go long Crude...(I don't intend to, I've bought enough quality and gold my basket is full). DYODD, there could be probs. with USL I'm not aware of...
GIX fails to exercise its option on San Augustin
I can’t imagine how GIX let this happen; This was their flagship property, and perhaps as large as Penasquito.
Although I certainly CAN imagine why SSRI would refuse to extend or modify the option. (As Don Corleone said, “don’t take it personal. It’s just business!”)
SSRI got San Augustin back for nothing, with much money and analysis expended, and a lot more certainty that it’s a monster deposit.
I’d think this gives SSRI the upside of a JV with a major, with all the time in the world to make let happen.
Doesn’t this make SSRI the premier silver explorer to own? It had already been the biggest gainer among the larger silver stocks since the 11/20 market bottom.
Reactions?
disclosure: no position
bought more WGW
Gold made a major break-out today, but WGW is still below its recent highs. When the asking price was $1.82 a few minutes ago, I placed a buy limit order at $1.82 for 2000 shares. Only 900 shares were given to me, and then WGW moved up. I guess that's fine...
Re: 2nd
HAHAHA I laugh!
End Game
Finger Lakes,
What we see on TV is all theater for the masses. Congress knows what these guys did — congress was their partner in crime. They repealed protection, boosted margins, OKed pay based on percentage of loans made, ignored the lack of oversight and issuing of AAA ratings.
I'd say these bankers were pretty smart — they got big salaries, bonuses, options, perks no end and still have their jobs while getting taxpayer dollars to play with.
More than 1000 banks were closed, temporarily nationalized and their management fired by Bill Seidman in the early 1980s. Do you remember anyone mourning their passing?
This whole stimulus/bailout deal stinks and our kids and grandkids will not have the kind of lives we did.
Our downfall began 25 years ago with the big business and bipartisan congressional sellout of manufacturing jobs under the theme "only the low-end jobs will be lost." Funny, where were all those left wing social do-gooders then? I guess the low-end jobs meant nothing except to the low-end earner.
Next came the skilled blue collar jobs and now college degreed white collar jobs have been exported to India — accounting, back office banking and brokerage work, medical tech stuff — and now...
We must rush threw an emergency $trillions plan or face a "catastrophe."
We have lived to see the destruction of the middle class American and have become the super rich and the rest of us.
Re: The socialization of the US
Catastrophic health insurance with a $6000. deductible costs $84 bucks a month in Utah.
The same insurance plan in New York costs $500 per month. Full Insurance in New York with no deductible but with $20-$50 co-pays costs about $1000. per month.
I don't know what full insurance costs in Utah.
I do remember though that in the 70's most people had catastrophic insurance and paid out of pocket for regular doctor bills. I don't know when full insurance really caught on but I believe too much insurance is the root of the problem.
If we do get Universal Health Insurance, I would expect the cost will be in line with NY and not Utah.
Has anyone ever been to Buffalo? The Blue Cross/Blue Shield building there is the fanciest building in the city except for maybe HSBC.
Do you also know that doctors spend at least 1/3 of their day arguing with insurance Bureaucrats about whether they'll cover a treatment that the doctor believes necessary? And if the insurance company denies the claim, the patient is pissed at the doctor and if something bad happens from not having the treatment who do you think is liable? The insurance company? Of course not, the doctor is liable and will lose every time even if they document that the insurance company refused coverage.
I don't know anyone who went into medicine to get rich but I know plenty who want to leave because they're not allowed to responsibly care for their patients.
Rob.
Re: End Game
Do you remember if any of the 1000 banks were of the "too big to fail category"?
Or was that when we started getting the Mega-bank that was too big to fail as the player banks gobbled up all the assets from the failed banks.
If that is true, I would love to see the reverse play out now.
Rob.
med/fin - end game
the only way to establish a bottom in housing is let prices fall to a level that they are affordable. It is that simple.
They can't be affordable on credit expasionary philosophys or lowering credit guidelines because that is what got us in the situation.
Grym is right.
we have exported our employment from no skilled work, to semi skilled work, now secondary educational jobs are being offshored. Thanks IBM (article stating if you want your job and live in the USA, move to india).
Prices have to come down to a level where they are affordable and resonable. meaning people save for 5 years to get that 10% down payment and have the income and reserves to carry it. Don't subsidize the costs by artificially rates, ALL THAT DOES IS PULL DEMAND FROM THE FUTURE. Which we build a quarter century of homes in 5 years and sold a quarter centrury of homes in 10 years nationwide. We already sold the future homes, they are just forclosing really fast now.
Housing has at least 15-20% to go, that depends on job losses could be more too...
Re: The socialization of the US
That is true, but look what happens when medicare patient get sick. All kinds of unnecessary tests and procedures are done because government pays. There was a study done that showed that a big chunk of money is spent overtreating terminal patients. Some of that is even done not so much for financial gain but fear of lawyers. Someone mentioned cardiac cath the other day. Here we have super expensive (and lucrative) cardiac cath procedures, while the same conditions are treated by pills in Europe with same or even better results. Same with pharma industry pushing expensive brands while cheap generics exist. Even brain washing the public with low fat (and high carb) diet that generates a low of chronic diseases (diabetes, increased cholesterol, and even coronaries) that need to be treated medically. So on and so for. A lot of doctors have a lot of conflict of interest, but this is just normal in today's culture.
Re: The socialization of the US
What there needs to be is a reform of the health insurance doctors have to pay, it makes no sense. Have you ever tried to sue for medical malpractice? It's very difficult. In my state, CT there are fewer than 200 of em brought each year. And yet, docs pay out the wazoo for insurance, as do we as consumers. In addition to that, we need to create a new level of medical pro, between a nurse and a doctor, capable of seeing patients and prescribing and stuff, just not heart surgery etc...
Power to the People!
Quant site rating system
I have been reading the Quant entries for the first time and noticed Pierre Brodeur, in some cases, uses a rating system of "X number out of 10" for specific stocks mentioned. Where does one find the rationale for the ratio and a detailed explanation of how these X out of 10 ratios are obtained in this rating system?
Health care
I agree that the best plan seem to be catastrophic + pay for everything else yourself. That way people are very interested in preventive medicine and also acually improving their health. There is way too much money spent testing and especially pharmaceuticals.
Most people take several medications - some to fix the side effects of the other ones. Do you think the pharmaceutical companies really want people to get better? How can they increase their profits if people don't keep taking more and more drugs - most of which don't even solve the problem, but just manage the symptoms.
The western medical model certainly has some good aspects to it, but it has a monopoly over health and no one really succeeds, especially the insurance companies and the pharmaceutical companies, if people really are well.
Bill and Pierre re: Quant
Thanks for adding more tools for us to learn to fish for ourselves. this is a journey/process for sure.
I am enjoying it, but the amount of reading I am now doing with the CTAB reports, WIR, Daily Reports and comments, I am gonna need to hire an intern soon to get thru it all :)
EDIT: I have yet to even get to the updated SLW addendum. will do tonight.
Re: The socialization of the US
Totally agree with Shark about needing someone between a nurse and a doctor. Someone who doesn't need 12+ years of school so we can get more of them and quicker, and free up the fully trained doc's for better quality care where needed.
I know little of what it's like elsewhere, but in Alberta I see 2 opposing problems:
1. Family and walk-in clinic type doctors get paid per visit, i dunno, something like $50/visit. Well guess what happens: i go for a checkup and get called back twice to inform me my tests were pretty much normal. If you have a chronic condition, good luck getting a prescription renewed for longer than 3 months at a time. The incentive structure is to maximize visits. No visit I've ever had lasted more than 5 minutes, but wait times have been over 2 hours.
2. My 2 year old broke his arm, go to emergency, get triaged, wait 2 hours in waiting room, 30 minutes for x-ray, another hour to see the doc, then he gets prepped for cast, then another hour before they finally fix him up. This all in the middle of the night and there's barely any action in the hospital. It seems these doctors are salaried and not encouraged to maximize throughput.
I'm sure people smarter than me have looked at this problem, but you'd think they'd at least try some alternatives like: paying doctors more for first visit, less for follow-up visits, paying hospital doctors smaller salaries and then a per visit 'commission' if you will. Surely over simplified, but current system ain't great and hasn't changed in forever...
Wall Street Journal
Ruth Madoff, the wife of Bernard Madoff, withdrew $15.5 million from a Madoff-related brokerage firm in the weeks before Mr. Madoff's arrest, according to the Massachusetts Secretary of State.
A complaint filed Wednesday by Secretary William Galvin's office said Ruth Madoff withdrew $5.5 million on Nov. 25 and $10 million on Dec. 10, according to documents from Cohmad Securities, which was co-owned by Mr. Madoff and which the Massachusetts office is investigating. Mr. Madoff was arrested Dec. 11 on allegations of perpetrating a massive Ponzi scheme.
Re: med/fin - end game
norm - "Prices have to come down to a level where they are affordable and resonable. meaning people save for 5 years to get that 10% down payment and have the income and reserves to carry it."
The real estate problem we're facing now is an anomaly created by lax and foolish policies and greed of the banking system. Jobs were sent overseas (except for those of lawmakers and bankers), lowering American value-added productivity (GNP), while the financial wizards flooded the mortgage market with fraudulent mortgage loans.
Foreigners are now showing up on courthouse steps across America to snap up foreclosed properties. Why should the prudent be penalized, the prices aren't too high, slave wages aren't high enough to support the debt level.
Re: Quant site rating system
"Where does one find the rationale for the ratio and a detailed explanation of how these X out of 10 ratios are obtained in this rating system?"
This sounds like a weighting method, or scale, similar to the Budweiser scale. The Budweiser scale limits out at around six, by the way, and is exponential.
http://forums.hardwarelogic.com/f9/budweiser-scale...
Perhaps the scale is modified (rescaled) now that Anheuser Bush is owned by Belgium's Ambev???
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
ALOHA !!
Thanks CP ... but just go to the "real deal" the US FED website link ...
LINK: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
The CP link to Maiden Lane info as published on Wikipedia shows a July 2008 link to FRB H.4.1. That link shows a $860bil liability on the US FED Balance Sheet.
If you check the same link for FRB H.4.1 but you look at the most recent release of Feb 5, 2009 that same $860bil USD liability of July 2008, is now at $1.8tril USD liability. The US FED assets shown are only $41bil USD from being totally bankrupt(liabilities exceed assets) ... So over $1tril USD of liabilities have been added in seven months time, since July 2008.
So here we have the leader of this private banking cartel, the US Federal Reserve Bank(itself a private bank)that controls the issuance of the US Dollar facing bankruptcy just as all its member banks have been facing bankruptcy en masse. Without the ability to "print" the entire US private banking cartel as well as the US central bank would all be standing in line with Lehman Bros right now, instead of fielding easy questions from Congress today!
My question is why Congress, who is the representative of all US citizens, has limited questioning to just select "private banks" and not included the biggest private bank in the World, the US Federal Reserve Bank. They should have each of the US Federal Reserve Bank's governors, all twelve, in line with JP MORGAN and all the rest. These guys are running the biggest criminal empire that ever existed. They make the MAFIA look like teddy bears! Tony Soprano must be taking notes ...
Please-e-e-e-e ...
Eliminate the US FEDERAL RESERVE !!! Sooner or later you guys will come to the same conclusion. As long as this criminal empire is allowed to exist there will be no "level playing field" or any financial justice, but above all we will never have HONEST MONEY in the USA!
Eliminate income tax in the USA ... That would be a SUPER stimulus! This country would be overwhelmed with jobs and foreign investment if that happened. One of the main reasons our bought and paid for Congress would never do that is because the US FED needs US TAXPAYERS to pay the interest on the National Debt. Of course BIG government needs taxes to stay in power and to provide for all they have promised. That's a losing bet ... and if you think you have lost a lot in the stock market then wait until you see what you and your kids lose when those promises vaporize and all that is left is the DEBT!
Way back when I first started blogging here, years ago, I was considered an extremist, saying that major US Banks would collapse and gold and farmland was the place to be. Now I read this blog and some comments here echo my same stance years ago!
I missed dinner with the US Senator from Nevada, John Ensign, when I was visiting Las Vegas, by a couple days. This was the guy, if you recall, that called me a "Marxist subversive", joking I am sure, but I have been in an uphill battle for years saying this is a monetary crisis. The US Empire is unwinding, just like the British and Roman Empires did ...
All I can say is you get what you vote for!
bought more ACI
I just got an e-mail notification that in my new trading account at OptionsHouse ($2.95 flat fee commission for stock trades!) the buy limit order I had for ACI at $15.50 got triggered for 200 shares, replacing those that I sold 2 days ago at $17.50. I just placed a sell limit order for these shares at $17.50. The "money pump" is on! :)
moving up the buy limit order on WGW
to $1.99 for the 2900 shares, covering 2000 shares I purchased yesterday at $1.75 and 900 today at $1.82.
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
The FED'S a fraud? HA
I'm ashamed
As proud as I am of the way I bought Yamana this morning, I am ashamed of the way I sold it. I should have added instead of selling.
Stunad!
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
kaimu - Concerning the Federal Reserve and the shenanigans going on there, I wonder if you read/have read Denninger?
Here's a link I suspect you might find interesting:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2009/0...
Someone here recently provided this link and IMO, Denninger makes some excellent observations on a daily basis.
BTW - I've always found your posts truthful, very helpful and thought provoking.
Comment link error
Site Admin: Clicking the links under Recent Comments gives me a Page Not Found error. The only way I can access the comments is to use the More link at the bottom of that section. Can anyone else confirm this for me? This is the first time I've experienced this.
Re: williams %r & rimm
kameag,
No, but I probably should because Larry Williams is good. But I use the imilar %K and %D Stochastics as my momentum oscillator, which itself is based on the same math as the RSI, except more sensitive, so when actually near to the executive point, I switch to the regular STO.
I use all indicators only to set goal posts, to help me make decisions, not to make decisions for me, btw. So, when the market says "Jump", I have a sense of how high, but I still have to perform my tricks.
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
"Eliminate income tax in the USA ... That would be a SUPER stimulus!"
I would stimulate the hell out of the economy with that!
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
ALOHA !!
What is the National Debt? The cost of promises ...
What is the unfunded liabilities of SS and MED? The cost of more promises ...
You are always voting for BIG government "promises" ... I can afford to keep my own promises to myself and my family, but I cannot afford to keep the promises of "rogue traders" in the US Congress that make promises on my behalf to over 300mil fellow citizens and foreigners each day!
The promises are endless, but my ability to pay is NOT! What is endless is the US government's ability to "spend" and "print"!
STIMULATING THAT IS HELL TO PAY ... as we will all find out the hard way just how deep that rabbit hole goes!
Re: The socialization of the US
I agree that many doctors, out of fear, order tests that may not be necessary. Medical mistakes should not be tolerated but also doctors shouldn't have to be forced to cover their butt first and care for the patient second.
I also agree that end of life expenses are extreme and something needs to be done. But it's a sticky issue. Who will make the choices? We have to be careful and not turn into a "Logan's Run" kind of country where people reach a certain age or physical condition and are terminated.
I think if more people were educated about filling out health care proxy's and more people were encouraged to have them we'd reduce alot of the costs. If many people knew what happens at the end they may choose to not have those procedures.
Rob.
Re: I'm ashamed
Hang your head in shame my fishy friend, then jump back in the water. Will there be a pullback for Yamana? Well maybe. I'd be willing to bet it'll be higher next month than it closed today though, wouldn't you...?
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
CP
Touché!
Let those out of towners fly over here and snap up housing, let's see if they like to catch falling knives! Prices need to come down because there is no way wages are going up in light of our dire circumstances.
A point about a couple saving for a home for 5 years, was aimed at that was the american dream. set a goal, save for a couple years and buy the house. my parents did that and it worked out for them. the lax standards and ponzi scheme created the credit expansion by loosing the guidelines which allowed demand to increase because the pool of eligible borrowers increased caused the run up in prices. we now know that, saw it happening before our own eyes but the euphoria was amazing.
Either way once we step back from the system and use an objective point of view we can see what is going on. it is funny because I "used" to think Kaimu was a little different, however it inspired me to seek out more that along with my new career and education. learned a lot. All thanks to "the government is only as honest as their money" quotes. Thanks kaimu.
here is an interesting link of a video of Celente from trends research. This guy has nailed many predictions over the past two decades. So please be easy on critisism as it could or might surprise you from what he says.
http://www.russiatoday.com/guests/video/2114
Also, Denninger is a great read, daily too. he makes good points about how things work, what could happen and a few extreme points. very educational but always remain objective to your own point of view not those of others - which help influence your own of course
:)
Re: What goes up, must come down
shark, re your earlier remark:
What goes up, must come down
Submitted by shark_attack (441 comments) on Wed, 02/11/2009 - 14:20 #11316
It's the oldest story in physics.
Well, the S&P was 4.40 on June 1/32, tripling to 13.21 on Oct 25/39. If you waited ten years for it to come down, it doubled again, and after another ten years it almost tripled again. Another ten years, and another double. A further ten years and almost a double again. Then it really started to move in the 80's and 90's.
Let's just say you could die waiting for your law of physics to kick in. :-)
the fix
flat tax, term limits and tort law reform.
those three should negate the FED too..
Re: What goes up, must come down
"Let's just say you could die waiting for your law of physics to kick in. :-)"
Well said Bill.
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
norm - "A point about a couple saving for a home for 5 years, was aimed at that was the american dream. set a goal, save for a couple years and buy the house. my parents did that and it worked out for them."
I wonder, and now how do your prudent parents who worked their fannies off for 30 years paying high taxes, etc. feel about the value of their home falling like a stone because of what our Congress and banking system have so insightfully enabled?
If I wanted to live in a third-world country, I would move there... Yes, I watch RT and admit I often chuckle at the slant.
preparing to take some profits on SLW
Someone mentioned today that $7.50 is a big threshold for SLW, so I have just lowered my sell limit order from $7.58 to $7.48 for the 1000 shares I purchased last week at $6.58. Also, placed a sell limit order at $8.48 for another 500 shares I purchased at $6.58.
Trading rule for profits
The safest time to buy a stock is after 3-5 days of pullback in an uptrend. On the first day that the sun shines (indexes positive positive news rising prices) Go long 2000 shares at the point at which it is clear that the sucker is going up. Here is the trick part. After it goes up ten or twenty cents, the first time you feel like selling, hit the buy button AGAIN. Then ride that sucker up till lunch (sell 3/4 and set a stop under the rest) and then go buy a good lunch, followed by a round of golf and then rounds of drinks.
Re: Comment link error
Foz,
I updated a module on the site earlier, and the new version appears to have a bug that causes the recent comment links to be bad. To avoid confusing people, I've turned off the links temporarily. I'm going to work on this tonight, and hopefully I'll have it working by morning.
Sorry for the inconvenience everyone!
Jeff
CEO Hearings
What a waste of 2 hours of my time! I watched the full morning session and the beginning of the afternoon session, tonight on C-Span. Important questions left unanswered due to questioner's time running out, shoddy research/preparation by questioners, many important questions left unanswered. Just a bunch of silly posturing by the Representatives, and equally bland statements of non-information from the CEO's. In fact, after their roll call of initial statements, I was struck that it's just business as usual for them these days. Did we think anything else? They lead-out line in good times and reel it back in during bad times - net result: they are stronger, the public is weaker. Rinse, Lather, Repeat. Let's get on with the dance!
Re: Trading rule for profits
Call me old-fashioned or whatever, several problems I've run into:
1) Selling too late
2) Selling too soon
3) Buying too quickly
4) Buying too late
My perceived saving grace is that months from now most of my holdings will be priced higher. I would have serious doubts about this if they consisted of ultra/2x/3x type ETF's.
Re: The socialization of the US
So true, malpractice insurance rates are out of control. But in NY it seems pretty easy to sue for malpractice. And when they sue, they blanket sue everyone even remotely involved with the patient. For example, these lawyers will sue the primary doc even if it was something that happened in the ER or with a specialist. What did the primary have to do with it. Many times it seems like a fishing expedition to me.
There already is a medical pro like you're talking about. They have Physician Assistants and also Nurse Practitioners. Both can see patients independently and write prescriptions. The catch is that the Primary Doc the NP or PA is working under is ultimately responsible and liable for any of their errors. But, even with the extra risk, most doctors I know use them to cut costs.
Rob.
Re: CEO Hearings
"What a waste of 2 hours of my time!"
Dog and pony show... and now you know what wasn't said or admitted to.
Re: The socialization of the US
We have such people - they are called Nurse Practioners. Do a Wiki and you will see the scope of what they do - write prescriptions, do hospital rounds etc. They are paid much more than a RN and much less than a GP. The problem in Canada is hanging on to them. They get almost as much education as an MD and often leave for a warmer climate and higher pay. The well-paid NP daughter of a friend of mine left a good clinical practice with a team of orthopedic surgeons to relocate in Galveston TX for these reasons. There should be an army of NP's but the colleges of medicine make it very hard to get certified such that many go the MD route and get swallowed up by the system.
Re: The socialization of the US
I don't know too much about Canada's health system other than your taxes cover everything and each of you get a government health insurance card. I do know a few Canadians who have come the the US to get certain procedures that either weren't available or the wait was too long.
I also know many Canadians who live in Florida in the winter and if they get really sick have to go back to Canada as their insurance won't cover American Doctors. I think our insurance is the same way though, not covering Canadian doctors.
I don't know why they'd have you come in more often as I thought all Canadian doctors make a flat salary with no profit incentives. In the US doctors definitely try to schedule you to see them as much as possible or as much as you're willing to go.
Rob.
Cdn Docs
No expert on this, but I know this much: No flat salary. Flat fee schedules. Newer procedures priced higher. The more people a doc can see in an hour the better for him/her. No system perfect. Ours works fine for me. I live in Vancouver, specialists surround my GP. Not so convenient in outlying areas.
Futbol Update
U.S. - 1 , Mexico - Nil Halftime - WC Qualifier
Maybe something for us Yanks to feel good about.
Rusoro - after the bid for GRZ was halted
I just spoke with George Salamis, President of Rusoro, who said his company had visited all major Gold Reserve shareholders (comprising 55% of outstanding shares). Shareholders were inclined to wait for a higher offer.
I asked "what's next" after a Toronto judge halted their hostile bid for Gold Reserve (GRZ). Mr. Salamis stressed Rusoro's commitment to working within the capital markets to pursue their strategy for consolidating gold deposits in Bolivar State, Venezuela (which I estimate at 30-50M ounces).
I took this to mean that efforts to gain control over GRZ's 10M oz. las Brisas deposit would be put on a back-burner (as is also the case with Las Cristinas' 15-25M oz. deposit, because of the historical legal complications surround that deposit).
Without the cash on GRZ's balance sheet, I was told that Rusoro can still operate for one year without recourse to the capital markets. This would mean keeping their Chaco 10 mine at steady-state production of 150K-180K oz. per year. Mr. Salamis suggested that a forthcoming scoping study may forsee expansion of production to 400K-500K oz. per year, but would require additional capital. Cash costs might be between $350 and $375 per ounce.
With 37% of Rusoro's shares, Goldfields' new CEO has publicly committed to diversifying production beyond South Africa, I imagine financing for such an expansion of Chaco 10 might well be available.
Also, Mr. Salamis confirmed that Rusoro has met with Polyus, Russia's largest gold miner, which has expressed interest in Venezuela and has participated in bi-lateral meetings in Venezuela.
Mr. Salamis' tone suggested to me that he is content now to concentrate on increasing production and profitability of currently controlled deposits and upon building his relationship as a trusted partner of the Venezuelan government.
Unstated was that time is on Rusoro's side, as the gov't has stated at the highest levels its determination to consolidate las Brisas with las Cristinas, and its decision to mine both in JV with a trusted partner.
There's only one JV candidate - Rusoro - and I don't see more foreign mining companies arriving on the Venezuelan scene during Pres. Chavez' adminstration. Even if Pres. Chavez loses in the forthcoming referendum, his term has 5 years to run. A lot can happen in 5 years.
disclosure: I own Rusoro shares, and am biased.
DYODD
Re: the fix
Loser pays rules like in England would prevent most frivolous lawsuits I would think.
Rob.
Re: CEO Hearings
How much you want to bet that the congressmen and the banker CEO's are having some huge party tonight at taxpayer expense, since it's business.
Just like professional wrestling the bad guys and good guys attack each other and pretend they're enemies for the cameras but then go out and hang out and party together afterwards.
Rob.
Canadian Doctors
Here is a little knowledge, subject to debate.
Most doctors in Canada are on a "fee for service" model with different fees for different services. The Provinces are the major insurer for these services, though different Provinces have different $rates for similar services. There are a small set of private insurers for unique groups of people and there are some services that are not funded by any insurer.
The majority of doctors subscribe to medical malpractice insurance through a national medical member owned association (CMPA). Depending on the specialty and location of practice, insurance rate may range from $800 to $40,000 (obstetrics in Ontario) per year. A GP would pay about $1,200/yr. If a doctor is sued for malpractice the CMPA usually covers the whole cost of litigation. Therefore a doctors major legal expense is for tax lawyers (ha).
The majority of the medical care is funded through taxation (personal income tax) but individual provinces may also have a premium to assist in funding their own form of coverage. Ours is about $140 per month for a family of 4.
By and large, every patient is "treated" the same regardless of your stature or lack there of; regardless of your ability to pay and regardless of your existing or prior condition. Doctors do not need to make a financial decision before treating you. They do not need to ask permission from the insurer to provide any type of care or treatment.
Also, the doctor does not have to chase the insurer to pay.
Canadians traveling abroad usually have coverage by their Provincial plan for a certain amount of time outside of country (90 days) and the payment is usually only up to the Provincial insurable amount. For example if your stay in your hospital at home is on average $600/night, and you end up in a private Florida hospital that costs you $2000/night you will have to make sure you have private medical coverage for the difference. Most Canadians would acquire this, especially if they are travel to the US. Depending on your demographic, rates can vary from very little$ to a lot$/month.
In most Provinces the billing practices of doctors is monitored to deter inappropriate billing. As there is a proclaimed shortage of doctors in Canada it would make sense that there would be no need to "churn" patients through the office, but it does occur. There is a movement within the Provincial health ministries to change the model so that doctors are paid for outcomes rather than number of services (ie Chronic Disease Management).
Every Province may not have the latest and greatest, and yes, you may want to go somewhere else to get a treatment not covered by your plan or faster treatment. So, if you have the ability to pay, then you can go to the US or to India.
Is the system perfect? No, but it is far better than anything else out there IMHO.
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
CP
prudent parents and 30 years...
I would argue that the values should have never went up that high and your home is not a investment strategy.
No one held a gun and told them you can't sell in 2004 and 2005.
:)
Only saying...
Re: Canadian Doctors
To be clear, while I complain about our system I still prefer it to the alternative. Just frustrating to watch so much debate, so many commities, and they never seem to try to make improvements beyond throwing more money at it...
Re: Trading rule for profits
I relate to what you say ,Chicken. Also,I buy good companies paying a dividend. Often hold on the way down. That has been a fault. Keep some $ for trades. Trading has helped soften the blow of the downturn. I have done some 2x but frankly they scare the hell out of me in a very short time frame. To each his own. I like to say I invest for my grandchildren but I am not a crap-shooter. I hope!
Headlines and the fall of the S&P
via Ritholtz, the big picture:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/major-headlin...
Incredible to review what happened when, as the S&P and the world fell apart.
Tech problems
sorry that Bill is having tech troubles tonight.
thanks chicken for replying back earlier.
Thanks for everyone's opinion on the oil situation. I ate the banana on uco. so live and learn.
Kaimu, can you give us a mini plan on preparing for a Plan B?
thanks,
vb
Re: preparing to take some profits on SLW
David,
I highly recommend reading the CTAB-Pierre Addendum on SLW.
http://tinyurl.com/dlo6jy
Just to get another set of eyes.
"Chinalco Said to Invest $19.5 Billion in Rio Tinto Debt, Mines"
http://tinyurl.com/awuzo2
Aluminum Corp. of China plans to invest $19.5 billion in Rio Tinto Group , gaining access to copper and iron ore resources in the nation’s largest overseas acquisition, according to two people involved in the transaction.
Celente
Okay, I tuned in RT and watched Celente, he struck me as having an agenda. That part aside, he brings up some points we've covered here before, and missed a couple.
1) Commercial real estate conundrum, which we don't hear anything about, as if this could be the next surprise shoe to fall (or thrown as the case may be).
he missed:
2) Alt-A and Option Arm resets (which hopefully will be addressed by the stealth legislation currently moving through to Obama's desk
Also an interesting term I keep hearing about is talk of a three legged stool. I hate to think of the image this brings to mind.
Big Move In Gold ETF
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca:GLD) added another 40 tonnes today and a total of more than 150 tonnes since the first of the year. In the past, such concentrated buying has resulted in a major upward move in the gold price.
Re: Big Move In Gold ETF
fireworks, yes, GLD now owns (in theory) about 1/6th of the tradeable gold out there. Gold goes up, people will buy GLD. If gold goes down, people naturally sell GLD, stops are triggered, etc. The problem is that then people claim conspiracy theories with regards to GLD bringing the price of gold down, but only on the way down!
Of course nobody will ever see that gold... Mom and pop investors probably think they are safe by owning GLD, but that's another story.
Gold Reserve and Rusoro
http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=12...
Jock, supposedly Rusoro is not going to be bidding for gold reserve in the future as well according to this interview with Salamis.
Re: MAIDEN LANE LLC ANYONE?
ALOHA !!
Just so you guys recall ... ENRON was skewered and CEOs died and went to jail for doing the same thing the US FED is doing right now in broad daylight! What is MAIDEN LANE LLC but a shell company holding so called "assets" of failed investment banks that no longer exist due to those so called "assets"!
As for "GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ..." It is JUST that simple!
As long as our money is dishonest you cannot expect our government or our stock and futures markets to be honest and eventually this dishonest money ruins our moral fabric as a Nation. This is on TV and in your face every day now!
Stimulus is yet another "band aid" for terminal monetary melanoma! You cannot rid the dying patient of this cancer by stimulating further growth of the cancer. In one word ... STOP! Cease and desist!! BIG GOVERNMENT needs to vanish!
To change the subject ...
HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY !!!
We are totally sold out of flowers as of today!!!
By the way ... my business does not need a BAILOUT! How is it that US BANKS with every advantage in the World and who have every member of Congress in their pocket cannot survive and require huge BAILOUTS yet KAIMU NURSERY and a few Hawaiian Banks need no US TAXPAYER help? Whats wrong with this picture? In America failure is rewarded handsomely! I believe you saw that on TV today with the bank CEOs. Now contrast that to the oil company CEOs who are brought before the US Congress and reprimanded and scoffed at for making a profit. Is XOM and CVX asking for a BAILOUT? Have they ever? CAPITALISM died a horrible death in 1913 ...
ITS THE MONEY STUPID!
My Hawaii reps in Congress will be getting the BOOT from me as soon as they come up for re-election! They have totally failed to represent me ... I plan to aggressively campaign against them! They made their bed!
Re: "Chinalco Said to Invest $19.5 Billion in Rio Tinto ...
NYU- I was reading this when you posted it. My first thought was, "what took so long?" Thanks for your help with posting yesterday. I'm not as dumb, I hope, as I might seem about computers. Just have so little time to mess with it. Thanks.
A couple of comments about some posts today. Seems like the interest in oil is now at a all time low, along with the price. My take...time to double down.
Staying all cash...Cash is , of course, safe. Yet losses to inflation still occur. Time to get back on the horse, trade smart, cut losses, but stay in the game.
FD-Well, you all know I'm new to trading, but I've never given up on anything in my life and will not start now.
Re: Comment link error
Ok, the comment links should work once again. I ported a bug fix from the development branch. I wish they'd release a new version when they find a bug this big, but oh well.
Let me know if there are any more problems.
Re: Canadian Doctors
Thanks for the vivid description. It sounds like our health systems are more alike than they are different. I know many doctors here would be willing to do almost anything to get the insurers out of their medical decisions.
And not only do we have to chase insurers down to pay us. The insurers even hassle the patients trying to see if there's any way a third party could be responsible for their condition. Insurers here will do anything possible to get out of paying. I think one problem is that Health Insurers shouldn't be public companies. They should at least be non-profit organizations.
Rob.
Re: Tech problems
vanillabean - Oh you're too funny! Crude is still dead if you want to buy it back. Alternative energy certainly isn't going anywhere for a while either, I think it took it's last gasp when Bush declared a switch from fossil fuel was too expensive. What he forgot to say was the economy was about to go swimming and he knew a move away from FF wasn't in the cards.
Re: The socialization of the US
I read that Bloomberg opinion piece the other day and I have to say I'm embarrassed they published it. Look at the last paragraph:
---
The health-care industry is the largest employer in the U.S. It produces almost 17 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Yet the bill treats health care the way European governments do: as a cost problem instead of a growth industry. Imagine limiting growth and innovation in the electronics or auto industry during this downturn. This stimulus is dangerous to your health and the economy.
---
Health care shouldn't be treated as a cost problem? So we shouldn't bother finding cures for diseases like cancer that have such profitable treatments? You know, the defense industry is really a "growth industry", so why even pretend to be interested in peace?
It's delusional logic. If we could pay less for the same quality of healthcare, we should -- even if it means the healthcare industry employs a few less people. I don't think anyone would disagree with that. There's always reasonable debate about how much money we should spend versus quality (the $100 treatment that is 98% effective vs the $1000 treatment that is 99% effective), but the fact is that healthcare IS a cost problem. In a perfect world, we'd spend as little as possible on it.
Crude Subject
I still think crude is going much lower than people think. To me, it seems to be the biggest falling knife out there. Until demand looks like it will pick up in the next couple of months, I think Crude will be on a downward spiral.
Look at any data out there, imports/exports falling off a cliff, unemployment skyrocketing, trucking and shipping companies moving fewer and fewer loads, wholesale inventories near an all time high.
Until some of these conditions start to bottom out demand will keep dropping. I'm not saying there won't be powerful rallies from oversold conditions, just that the trend is still down IMO.
Rob.
Re: Big Move In Gold ETF
ALOHA !!
I have shown and posted here before that a $200USD price collapse in COMEX gold did not show a similar sell off of GLD gold tonnes. GLD price dropped but not the tonnes ... In fact hardly 4 tonnes were sold on a $200 POG plunge. This tells me those who are running GLD are accumulating tonnes not selling them. Why are they accumulating?
I will hold to my belief that GLD investors will eventually end up holding yet another fraudulent bank scheme when it comes to a major monetary crisis. GLD investors will always hold a "warehouse receipt" and that is all! GLD produces no supply!
I can think of no better or easier place for the US government to go to in order to confiscate the "People's" wealth. FDR did it and I doubt the crew we have in Congress now would hesitate for a moment to copy FDR when it comes time. In fact FDR, Jr is already in the White House ...
To me GLD and SLV are nothing but bank sponsored Russian Roulette! The COMEX is not much better! The only difference is which type of gun they use ... a Naganat or a Gnom? Sorry Russian readers it was not meant as an insult! HA!!
SLW
In my ideal world SLW will open up a little tomorrow and then have a mild sell-off on low to medium volume. If it rallies hard again tomorrow I'll be alot more nervous and may have to sell.
Rob.
Re: Crude Subject
Rob, are you short any crude based positions? Just because demand might keep dropping, that doesn't mean the price will. I'm a home builder in Sonoma Co. I can't buy the materials needed to build a house for the price one can get for a new one that was built last year. But I still have to drive to work, drive to the store, products are still shipped world wide, plastic cups, tires, packaging material, rubber bands,....on and on and on, are still needed.
The price of gas here has gone up 20% in about 4 weeks. I look to the exploration/production Co. as leaders. IMHO.
SLW earnings-Feb 19, Be Careful
SLW has missed earnings the last 2 quarters, -.019 on 9/30 and -.05 on 6/30.
I don't know if I would hold when they announce. It could be playing Russian Roulette. I prefer day trading SLW. Buy and hold seems insane with the volatility of this market.
Re: Crude Subject
No, I'm actually not in any crude positions. Seeing how it rose to 149 and has crashed to 36 in a matter of 8 months has made me stay away. I was actually short oil last spring when it was around 115 but got shaken out around 125.
I do agree that the whole world won't stop. Most things will keep moving. I just see less of them and those which are still moving will be going slower.
Look at airlines cutting back on flights because of lack of passengers. Eventually we will find equilibrium but I still think it's pretty far in the distance.
I was reading earlier how Europe could be more screwed than we are, as most people think. Their bad bank liabilities could be as high as 16 Trillion. Since their economy is smaller than ours, this could make them really come to a standstill.
Risk seems very high right now especially in Crude. If you or anyone else is long, I wish you good luck. For now, I'm on the sidelines.
Rob.
Re: Gold Reserve and Rusoro
That's right, tgifbipo! (curious nick = ThankGodIt'sFridayBi-Polar?)
Rusoro's bid is dead. I was suggesting that Rusoro will now tend to their knitting - to developing production from their current deposits.
I believe that the VZ gov't will (at their own pace) remove KRY and GRZ, consolidate the related deposits under the gov't owned CVG, and ultimately turn to Rusoro - their Joint Venture partner - to produce those massive, world-class deposits.
Chavez himself has said that the VenRus joint venture will mine las Cristinas, and the minister of mines has said that las Brisas and las Cristinas will be mined together. (the Ministry tried to get this to happen for years, and apparently KRY was unwilling to agree to produce the copper in their deposit, and to share processing facilities with GRZ).
Once a sovereign government (not to mention a socialist government) makes such a major policy determination, I don't believe a pair of small companies from countries now out of favor - one of which companies was led by one of the main coup plotters against Chavez - has any chance whatsoever of overturning such a policy.
I believe only involvement of senior Russian miners (Peter Hambros, Polyus) could alter the outcome. This is just my view. I could be wrong.
I'm biased because I own Rusoro shares.
DYODD
Re: SLW earnings-Feb 19, Be Careful
Thanks for the heads up. I'll make sure and trim or hedge my exposure before then. I usually try to avoid being in a stock for earnings as it's usually a roll of the dice.
Rob.
Re: Crude Subject
I understand your point Rob, and I enjoy your posts, thanks. I guess what I am saying is at a certain point, it no longer becomes profitable for ANY company to produce a product that can not support its underling cost. Can you think of any product that has more world wide demand that oil? Man, I like a cold beer, but can live with out it. Oil....? That's the stuff of "Mad Max"!
Good luck in your trades too. Best, MB.
Re: SLW earnings-Feb 19, Be Careful
Options expiration for February is Feb.20 so this can add to the volatility. A hedge is definitely the way to go on a holdover to minimize risk.
I don't do that myself because I prefer to play intraday recycling for buy and sell signals. I am a frequent trader, not a frequent flyer!
India in the global crisis
Last night, charlie rose had on the chairman of Wipro, who made three key points as to why he felt India is in better shape than other BRIC countries:
1. the banking system is 70% public, and heavily regulated. They did not buy toxic assets.
2. India is much less dependent upon trade than China. Something like 25% of GDP. (I believe well over 50% of China's GDP is trade).
3. India's trade is much less dependent upon the major economies (US, Western Europe, Japan) which originated the crisis, and will likely recover slowest.
Re: bought more WGW
Thats amazing. I made a comment moaning about its price performance yesterday and it jummped over 6%. A perfect result would be a 2.2. What kind of thoughts have you got on WGW? , its been a dissapointing long ride for me. Dump or hold?
Re: Big Move In Gold ETF
Re. "I have shown and posted here before that a $200USD price collapse in COMEX gold did not show a similar sell off of GLD gold tonnes. [...] This tells me those who are running GLD are accumulating tonnes not selling them. Why are they accumulating?"
They are not necessarily accumulating, they only sell when the buyers (mom & pop) of GLD sell. There is nothing wrong with that. If *all* the buyers of GLD sold at once, every single one of them, that would cause the sell of 1/6th of the available gold, and would cause a dent, yes.
But, I agree with this: "I will hold to my belief that GLD investors will eventually end up holding yet another fraudulent bank scheme when it comes to a major monetary crisis"
The second part is quite possible. It is just paper until you touch it, grab it, and store under a faraway flower farm. :-)
JMO. Thanks.
Moves in Oil ETF
Reflecting on Si02's comments about COMEX I was interested to understand that USO functions as a paper game as well.
From the Motley Fool:
Designed to track the price of West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil, the United States Oil ETF is now a behemoth that is actually impacting prices, according to a story in the Wall Street Journal. It accounts for 22% of the front-month contracts and contributes to the decline in oil's price when it rolls over those contracts as they near expiration.After all, the ETF doesn't actually want to take delivery of all that oil, so it dumps the contracts and buys new ones .
http://tinyurl.com/amgxx4
Has USO become a vehicle for speculative trading?
A couple of suggestions viewed online that trading the refiners might be an alternative play.
"...this seems to bode well on a relative basis for oil refiners as they seem to be in line with market demand and should be the first players in the energy sector to see a return of pricing power once demand begins to recover."
This analyst suggest oversupply by producers looking to maintain historical levels of cash flow, which may suppress a breakout above $50.
http://tinyurl.com/brosl5
VLO is one ticker suggested...
The socialization of the US
Finger Lakes,
The last time I went to my GP for a physical as he concluded the exam I asked if he wasn't going to order any blood work. He asked me to decide what tests I wanted saying, "Insurance companies balk at ordering too many unnecessary ones." (My auto mechanic should be so cautious.)
As a part of the stimulus package the health care portion contains wording which may be construed as allowing a bureaucrat to decide what dollar value of treatment to allow a patient. I have heard this is common in Sweden — age/cost as a limiting criteria and in Britain, where the most advanced equipment is in very limited supply, you may die of old age waiting a turn.
About 30 years ago our family doctor stopped delivering babies due to the insurance costs. It seems he could be held liable until age 21 for any medical problem which may develop with a child he delivered.
We have nurse practitioners here in the U.S.
Gaithner, Congress and the rescue plans
While watching the stimulus plan and TARP usage TV Show of Shows, it may be prudent to keep this in mind —
If you've read Bill's book or have been a long time reader here, you will remember his warnings of the "sell-side players" in investing. Example: Those now billed as "Financial Advisors" are in reality stock and bond salesmen.
What we are seeing on TV are ALL sell-side agents!
What they are selling is, above all else, themselves. whether politicians, bureaucrats, or CEOs (bankers, auto execs, whatever) for them JOB RETENTION IS JOB NO. 1!
They want us to believe the THEY must be retained in their current positions in order to save our banking system, our economy, our nation from a total catastrophe.
We must be convinced they are on our side and doing only what is best for our country. They have circled the wagons, but if backed into corner may be willing to sacrifice one or two of their own. This would be so we will forget that those who caused and allowed this mess are still in control.
Re: Gold Reserve and Rusoro
Jock,
I am not certain of the date but I believe that it is in June that KRY will begin litigation against the Venezuelan government for non-performance. So Venz working at it "in their own time" is not quite the case. The bilateral treaty with Canada is where the lawsuit will come from or be based upon. Although it will be long lasting, does Venezuela really want to wait or do they even have the time considering the price of oil to stop all production for years in the LC/Brias projects? There are some that believe that KRY will be approached by Polyus to buy them out.??? GRZ seems content to wait out the Venezuelans forever!
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
GRMN - Upgraded to Overweight @ Global Crown Capital. Price Target Raised from $17 to $22
PBR - Downgraded to Hold @ Citigroup
Re: The socialization of the US
Malpractice in California:
I tore a tendon in my wrist with a power drill. A local well respected hand surgeon repaired it. Always had swelling for a year. He took xrays and continued to fill it with steroids. I went up to Los Angeles, two hours drive to see Dr. Zemel at the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic. He is the hand surgeon to all of the pro sports teams in all sports. He did an MRI and found a seuture anchor placed in the styloid bone on the outside of ones wrist that looked out of place. He does not use them at all in that procedure. He re did the surgery and removed the seuture anchor because that anchor had almost completely severed a major tendon 1/4" thick. I tried to sue the original doctor but he was a well known "professional witness" for hand surgeries gone bad in the counties surrounding So. California. No lawyer would take my case because of what they called a "conflect of interest". In other words they all used him for their own lawsuits. I basically could not sue.
There is a question to ask when seeking a doctor for surgeries
Best to ask if they testify in court cases.
Funny, we don't ask ourselves how socialized insurance companies are.
We choose one inefficient socialistic model (based on profit at OUR expense PHYSICALLY) and another that would provide better, less costly care w/o profit motive on the part of the insurer.
Rob is right. At the very least these companies need to be private, but better yet, let's tak all the profit out of the insurance and put those funds into actual care.
I think some folks here have political agendas that don't match-up with reality.
I just got done doing the ER heart attack deal with an elderly person.
Visit one they did a blood test, EKG and a CAT scan and somehow missed a pending heart attack. Hey, S happens.
When it did happen there were no unnecessary tests or anything. I was on the phone when Mom crashed and they switched to "what life saving measures do you want?" There were no unnecessary anythings....
Then someone mentioned how angiograms/plasy's are unnecessary and in France they use a pill. Bullshit. They use the "pill" clotbuster bloodthinner (it's administered IV) here too on patients too weak to undergo angio. It works for the short term but is no cure or miracle.
I have the photos to prove it. If they had simply given my mom the drug and turned her loose she would still have a major blockage and symptoms and would likely be dead. But the before and after photos of the angio/stent site is like night and day. From hourglass to normal plumbing in an hour or so.
If it were you or your Mother, you wouldn't want a pill.
Remember, this isn't all about money, when you discuss these topics you are talking about people's lives....and maybe your own.
Cara 100 Update
ATVI - Price Target Lowered from $15 to $13.75 @ Wedbush Morgan
Re: What goes up, must come down
good thing you used lower-case letters and had a smiley face at the end, bill. otherwise, you could be seen as having been yelling, which, of course, is grounds for unsubstantiated claims about your basis in reality.
more than anything else, i think i am humbled by your patience. thanks again...
Cara 100 Update
ATVI - estimates lowered through 2010, target cut at UBS. Company facing macro concerns, despite its top product line. Buy rating and new $14 price target.
KSS - Downgraded at Goldman Sachs to Sell from Neutral based on valuation and consensus earnings estimates that are likely too optimistic. Note that stock has been a popular defensive play and shares are up 3% year to date. Expect management to provide conservative near-term guidance, including sales declines and margin contraction. Price target lowered to $32 from $34.
RIMM - estimates cut at Morgan Stanley through 2011. Company realizing lower gross margins. Equal-weight rating
That's a whole lot of red ink
For 9:32 AM
DJI
lowest low on dji since the November lows of 7450
SLW
From the Exchange:
TSX bulletin 2009-0187
An additional 35,937,500 common shares will be listed at the open on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2009. The listing will cover common shares to be sold to the public at a price of $8 per common share pursuant to the terms of a short form prospectus dated Feb. 6, 2009. The closing of the offering is expected to occur prior to the open on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2009.
Stops
They're blowing through mom & pop's stops first thing. Hopefully they hit my bids...
RTP
Why is RTP dropping? I assumed that it was good news for them that China was investing money with them.
Rob.
Re: SLW
What is the $8 Canadian equivalent to USD?
Re: Big Move In Gold ETF
i could not agree more.
Re: SLW
conversion today .8026 so 8 cad equals 6.42 usd
Thursday commentary is up
Thursday commentary is up
Re: Cara 100 Update
>ATVI - estimates lowered
>KSS - Downgraded
>RIMM - estimates cut
Bloody hell Bull Hunter, is any discretionary spending previewed in the US this year!
The US consumer... on life support.
Talk about cheering the crowd :)