Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., Jun 17, 2009

looking at FXA here, volume 4?, but on yahoo, volume 246,000.

Oh I get it, order of importance. Hmmm, can imagine FXA and FXC rising in importance in the near future.

Timely subject Bill. Something we need to understand. Thanks.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/06/blood-oath-from...

I've traded the UUP after the posting here mentioned to consider to hedge or cut back gold positions.
For what it worth, the trade was sedate even though i was early on the hedge and in order to trim positions, flipped it too early.
Though it seemed like the right vehicle to for e hedge and liquid.
Thanks for your posts; they are very helpful

I definitely do not want to see gold drop below $930 and silver below $14. This options expiration week can be brutal. If a drop below those figures, I'm getting out and waiting until the indicators turn positive. It may mean I'm a little late getting back in but I can't take the bloodshed!

http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/

Gold held at 880 last pullback, would 900 or 910 seem likely place to see bullish support....?

Good Morning.

FSLR - Robert W. Baird Initiates Coverage with a Neutral. Price Target = $180

200dma is what; 870something? I'd certainly have no problem laddering into miners as we drop through 900. I won't buy miners until gold drops below 900, or busts its way convincingly through 940-50.

You can of course play Bill's RSI trade. SLW is already below 30. It might go lower with the market. I'm sick of tracking in and out of these things as POG goes everywhere but over 1000. If Bill's looking for 2500 in 6-18 months, there's time yet to get on board.

Strange happenings this morning. With gold and silver dropping, you would assume that the Euro is dropping against the dollar. In fact, the Euro is higher: closed at 138.40, now at 138.44. What gives? Are they playing games?

Price Targets Raised:

ADBE - from $17.50 to $27.50 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral

PBR - from $35 to $38 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral

~nt~
no text

Not really Les, just saying what the RSI7 is showing. SPX is no longer short term overbought, and you are correct, it was overbought for many days. SPY is now at 35. Just beware.

Keep an eye on XLE

http://tinyurl.com/n9uxok

If it breaks through and closes with heavy volume the S&P will continue it slide downwards [XLE big part of the S&P]. If it holds then the S&P will stabilize for the time being. But the way things are going, it is only a matter of time before it breaks downwards taking down the broader market with it.

Things are turning around in the past few minutes! There is still life in the old guy! I hope I can smile before I die!!

I MAY go long Yamana if everything sets up right, however I have a weird feeling about today.

Savient came up with a gout remedy...Any of you suffer from gout? I do. In fact, as we speak I am overcoming a gout outbreak of some significance which is presently in my left elbow.

To any of you who do not know, gout sucks! Gout is a cruel, painful form of arthritis that runs in my family and yes, is exacerbated by prodigious intake of my favorite foods and beverages....Namely, cheeseburgers (rare), beer and wine, and just about anything with vinegar in it.

Savient has a new drug that's getting approval, but basically it's bad for your heart. So I won't take it. One day I will get smart and give up the booze and steaks, but hey.....It is what it is.

Just sharing a personal anecdote with the group. Let's come out of the closet, us gout suffererers and stand proudly (if only on one leg).

EDIT at 9:10....Today really feels like a depressing selloff waiting to happen in pretty much everything. Of course, that could turn on a dime.

"The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble."

Original publication here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-...

Don't you just hate the internet as a potential source of embarrassment?

i have to admit that i am rather confused. let's look at what was written:

Open Post To The Group
Submitted by Bev (137 comments) on Tue, 06/16/2009 - 20:41 #32936

Earlier I made a post titled "Translation [someone]" which I copied from
Karl Denninger's site [http://tinyurl.com/mnar7h ].

Now as for me not posting Denninger's name was mainly because it was the end of the market day and I got lazy.

------------------

i replied to that earlier post:

how do you blatantly COPY someone else's work and not even have the decency to mention their name anywhere in said post?

------------------

as a result, Bev says:

To me his choice of words were very disrespectful among other things.

------------------

looking at the bold words is what has me confused. could you explain exactly which words are "very disrespectful"?

the word 'plagiarism' was NOT brought up by me, it was brought up here, by 2nd_ave:

Submitted by 2nd_ave (2320 comments) on Tue, 06/16/2009 - 19:46 #32924 (in reply to #32907)

as for Dale Carnegie, the only insult between Bev and I is this:

"You will learn how to:
* Communicate with diplomacy and tact "
You surely need it....

which also was NOT submitted by me

if you need an apology anyway, then i am sorry.

--------------

as for what Denninger meant, in addition to asking him to comment on the whole affair via email, i would say he was saying that this Thursday watch and see if the Fed takes $52 billion dollars out of the money supply. in other words, look for the smoking gun of:

Ssssshhh.... Its D-D-D-D-....

I say we let it all be buried in the June 16th posts. Ok? Shalom!

Les,

I'm not sure if this is a "source of embarrassment" because Krugman was advocating the housing bubble or if he was predicting the housing bubble would be Greenspan's way of kicking the can down the road.

For example: Today I might say, "What Bernanke needs is to reinflate away our debt with cheaper dollars." Which is in fact NOT what I think is the correct thing to do, but only what I believe he is hoping to do.

OK Bev, understand you're references to gapping now. Was idly watching SLW drop like a lead balloon. Was prepared to eat my earlier words and step in. Will wait and see if a better price is offered.

Bev, here's my take on SLW from yesterday prior to the market open.

http://chart.ly/7w5eex

...

ADBE - Target Raised at Goldman Sachs to $28 from $25 based on valuation.

ADBE - Price Target Increased at RBC. Adobe currently trades at 17.5x CY'10 EPS estimate of $1.61 (was $1.60) vs. peers at 15.7x and its trough multiple of 10.7x from Mar. '09. RBC believes that multiples should expand before fundamentals and that downside to Adobe could be $17 at trough multiples while upside could be $45 at historical average P/E multiples of approximately 27x during a recovery. Reiterating Outperform rating and raising price target to $35 from $30. $35 price target assumes shares trade at 21.8x 2010E EPS, a premium to peers based.

BBY - numbers raised at Credit Suisse to $41 from $40. Cites gross margins rising by 160 basis points, controlling expenses, and announcing strong earnings. Maintained Outperform rating.

NUE - Target Raised at Credit Suisse to $55 from $50. With orders improving, inventories remaining low, US capacity utilization increasing, and prices rising provides better visibility for the company. Maintained Outperform rating.

QCOM - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to Conviction Buy from Neutral. Undervaluation of the co.'s royalty business, indications that Microsoft will introduce a version of Windows CE for ARM-based netbooks, and higher expectations for global handsets led to the increase in ratings. Raised target price to $53 from $43.

Les- Nice. Wish I'd backed up my take on SVNT also.

Okay everyone....it's a down day and not looking good....so we may all be a little edgy. Right?

Maybe we should all try the decaf today....

Sharkie, maybe switch between the double cheeseburgers and the veggie burger before it's bypass/angio time. I'm a cheeseburger person myself, but no drinking of any consequence. Alcohol is a big contributor.

Hope the skin issues are well behind you Bill. My Dad had to undergo microsurgery and lost a piece of ear. One of the hazards of construction in the sun. Good luck at the Doc.

No POT stocks are available to short. What a missed opportunity. BTW... they never have the shares you want even before they begin to drop.

Obama speaks at 12:50 EST.

almost all of the at or close to 50d SMA, so is gold. It looks ugly today

Spoke too soon.

VAD, get off my back!

:p

I wouldn't say never. I got what I wanted 3 out of 4 times while shorting PSS (Pay Less Shoe Source is the old name for this company which has a lot of debt and no profits).

Sure, Les. I'll humor you. Krugman was criticizing the Bush administration in general, and Alan Greenspan in particular, about their assertions that the 2002 tax cut was helping pull the economy out of recession.

Bear in mind also that government officials have a stake in accentuating the positive. The administration needs a recovery because, with deficits exploding, the only way it can justify that tax cut is by pretending that it was just what the economy needed. Mr. Greenspan needs one to avoid awkward questions about his own role in creating the stock market bubble.

He feared, rightly so as we all now know (most of us, anyway), that a housing bubble was not the answer to the country's economic problems.

Now it's your turn. Where, in any of his articles, does Krugman advocate that Greenspan follow the disastrous policies that are now his legacy? In this one article in particular, that you ridiculously cite as "embarrassing", he warns that this is exactly what he will do. One does not invoke "housing bubble" if their goal is to advocate on its behalf.

Keep an eye on MON

http://tinyurl.com/ma4zkx

Watch the 6 mo trend line for a break.

Clearly in a downtrend, last line of support 8.33 then 7.07
We are not even near an indicator reversal, Stochastics and MACD are both biting the dust!
My advice: Wait for a reversal!! And I don't see that happening for now!
(Side note- even the silver ETF is taking a bath!. It must be the summer heat.)

I agree that it's no time to be dickering around with the mining stocks. I agree that I was wrong thinking that the breakout could have happened a week or 2 ago. I agree that Scottrade bites el burrito grande when it comes to getting "borrows" for shorts.

Finally I don't think any of this is getting better anytime soon, so I think I will take this great weather oppty to go for a walk, then to sit down to a nice lunch of plain organic yogurt with fresh strawberries.

2nd ....are you doing anything on the short side/long faz? not me. I hope you are though, since you knew all about it 2 weeks ago:)!

:) Weee!

Uh ... okay, Les. Whatever you say. Res ipsa loquitor.

Has anybody been reading David Rosenberg's pieces with Gluskin Sheff? He's pretty adamant about deflation being a bigger issue right now, despite all the stimulus/money printing and other government efforts to bring the economy back to life. He has been commenting that Tsy's are (have been) due for a rally and stocks should be coming off quite a bit.

Pretty interesting stuff. I think you can still sign up to have his posts delivered via email.

There are those with more experience who would disagree, but it's always seemed to me that the thing about trading, unless you are a market maker or a real big time pro, the thing is, it's all about finding those trading opportunities that are basically no-brainers. I have long ago realized my own limitations, though perhaps not their full extent, and have concluded that if I don't know what's going on for sure I do not trade and in fact go to the putting green or whatever. example...Is Yamana going to wind up going up today? Maybe. But I have absolutely no idea. So I stand aside and keep warm with the money I made yesterday, albeit sloppily.

Dave, One of my favorite shorts. Thanks for bringing her up. Watching...

Dave

Here's my take. I think you'll be fine, but I might raise the cover buy stop up a tad in case the market attempts a brief rally. Intermediate term, I think this goes lower. DFS is also in similar pattern.

http://chart.ly/9hyw7c

Saw this latest post by Fujisan
~~~~~~~
"My OPX wild guess still holds:

SPY 91
QQQQ 36
IWM 50
DIA 85

IMHO, the market has already reached where they want to be at OPX, so it will be a sideways move until OPX from now and then a big drop comes on Monday. Most major indices have strong support at 200 SMA and it's not easy to break this through"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I have this gut feeling Monday is going to be ugly.

darn thing looks so enticing, but it's so hard to buy with the market AND gold going down. Just shows to go ya, there's a lot of up in this stock.

Alright...Yamana is MAYBE coming back into it's opening range...gold futeres are falt to slightly pos.....Let's see if this develops.

thanks #2sun...always nice 2 see u

Yamana pivot range today 9.20-9.22...best thing would be for gold to rocket, auy to exceed that range and then load the boat skippy.

But I think we have a sufficient understanding of the failings in modern mass media to rouse the public to the abuses of government. I believe many would agree that Iraq stands as an example.

True that, Les. ;)

Bev- It's kind of a pain, but have you tried to have shares held for you to short? Works well at Schwab, but not good for day trading.

MarkW

Never knew you could do such a thing. How does it work? You mean you can set asides shares then sell them when you want?

Hey there...I was just channeling you.

I don't mean with 100 percent confidence, but really, the best trades are pretty darn obvious IF you are managing information correctly and are there during the setup, not too late to party. So let's say the confidence level swings from 50 % to maybe 70 percent. That's what I mean. Also, and this is another case of channelling um...you, is, the thing becomes fairly automatic after YEARS of watching/doing. Good behaviors get reinforced. Bad behaviors get punished. Those who remain in the game are those able to perform reinforced behaviors or endure economic hardship while learning to do so/doing so to some degree. Even I am able to almost unconsciously keep myself out of much trouble and to get into some ok setups.

Here's a shoutout to all the gout sufferers in the house....raise your cane's with me now! Let's all go out for Indomethecine cocktails after work!

Wow, gotto love Israel for this innovation
http://gmy.news.yahoo.com/v/14013875

Jun 8, 2009 22:04
Israel developing battlefield robot snake
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

A robot snake with a camera and microphone in its head is the IDF's latest battlefield weapon, according to a Channel 2 report broadcast Monday.

The channel showed video of the snake twisting into caves, tunnels, cracks and buildings, broadcasting pictures and sound back to a soldier controlling it with a laptop computer.

The "snake" appeared to be about six feet (two meters) long. Covered by fabric in military camouflage colors, it slithered along the ground and climbed rocks, its segments connected with joints that flexed in several different directions. Channel 2 said military researchers studied real snakes to copy their movements.

The report said no price had been determined for the snake, which was in the experimental stage, but the IDF plans to deploy the robot with combat units. No target date was given.

**The report suggested another role for the robot - carrying a bomb to blow up terrorists or a building. In that case, Channel 2 said, it would be a "suicide snake."**

YRI/AUY has some legs.......
http://tinyurl.com/lgb9tk

Mark- A layaway plan for short sellers? Didn't think SCH was working that hard to bring in trading clients.

replaced positions
CNQ at 58.8 what sold yesterday at 61.2
agu 48.75 last sold at 54.3
su $34.65 last sold at 38
DBA 26.17 new position
Coxe strategy

Bev- I guess the proper word is to "arraing" to have shares available to short. If I call Schwab and tell them how many shares I want to short, they will try and find them for me. For something like C for get it. But they usually come through. Like I said, it can take a day or a few hours, so not great for a day trade. GL. BTW, my friends just call me Mark. Hope you do the same.

gold futures rising market index ok

BTW BEV....mixed blessing with Scottrade borrow probs...they have saved me many times from screwdoodling myself, because you see...I know next to nothing about shorting, except that I should have done it all last year:)

A major question to anyone familiar with A-C-D....I don't really know the values for "A" exactly...So did Yamana make an A-down today, or did it spring back from a rejection of those A-down values? What is the distance for "A" on a 9 dollar stock.....Please help me!

Re: Bill's comment in the daily report today about going long the miners and short the $USD some time in the future.
Does anyone have a retail solution for hedging the $cdn vs. $usd?
I don't trade futures and was wondering if there was some other way to mitigate exchange losses if the $cdn rises vs the $usd.

2nd- Maybe they don't like seeing all that cash sitting in my margin account. Seriously though, they've been really accommodating.

Good luck, all..got to run.

vanillabean - Wow, that is quite interesting... Just think how effective something like that could be in the wrong hands... chilling!

BTW, Down by the pond a couple days ago, I watched a large cottonmouth capture and swallow a healthy-looking frog.

Would love to Mark. ;-)

Thanks for the info on setting aside shares for shorting. I will have to talk to Scottrade about that.

number_2son,

That was my impression from reading the article. I'm not any great fan of Krugman generally, (usually too Keynesian to suit me) but communication is such an iffy thing I guess I'll give him an edge on this one. Which is of course what the Fed (Greenspan was a master at obfuscation.) and politicians use to great advantage.

I like the writers and speakers who leave no doubt what they mean.

This has gradually become pretty much my whole philosophy... "I would rather be disliked for what I am than liked for what I am not." Far less strain.

One day my wife said (in response to my rant a some talking heads), "People are not going to change."

I replied, "Well, I've changed over the years — I used to be much nicer."

I finally won an argument with her after over 50 years since we first met:-)

Chickenpookie

Thanks! As for what Denninger actually said, I am still scratching my head over it. But it did come across that way to me it would roll over. And I did walk away with what happens Thursday could have a dramatic effect Monday or Tuesday.

Well, whatever Krugman meant back then, I think most of us would agree it was a dumb move and likely we thought so then.

Greenspan was one who adhered to the advice, "If you must quote — quote often."

A lot of newsletter writers have a wealth of quotes to use as evidence that they predicted any outcome.

video

http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2009/06/camou...

Need to see the market survive Obama's afternoon rant. Then, if all is good, many investors will look at the Yamana daily and say, "this thing could make a hammer today, and I will wish that I had bought it."

Let's see. There are some important pivots at 9.17-22 that need to be exceeded, and finally, some folks will want to see a rea a-up made prior to going long, but this could be an important day. IF the market can survive Obama.

MMM.....Strawberries!

BEV - Scratch your head no more, Denninger was simply saying that there's a $100B "temporary" FED -> HB&B loan that is due, and that if it doesn't roll over into the next period (loan extension), it will most likely come out of the market.

So Denninger generously presented us another metric to watch for signs of impending trouble. Prices don't trade in a vacuum, we must assemble the pieces to observe the message conveyed by the puzzle.

So I think it's worthy of further study and once we've convinced ourselves of how to interpret the action, could assist our efforts tremendously.

Incidentally, I don't agree with Denninger's conclusion that this bubble cannot be reflated but I've been wrong at least once in my life.

Cheers! ;)

You may wish to start paying attention to Brett Steenbarger who is both a psychologist and active trader. He runs a very good blog at: http://www.becomeyourowntradingcoach.blogspot.com/ and also: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/.

Among many other things, Steenbarger believes that incorrectly sizing positions is the number one reason most people fail at trading. If you are allowing a single loss to cancel numerous gains you are not sizing correctly.

Mark - I'm still holding FTWR, pretty sure $0.8x was just the tip of the iceberg. But I may have to take some profits there if some of my other irons(in the fire) don't pay off.

Looks like BC is going to $5, possibly on the back of the #7 horse?

Sharky well said!!!

Is dropping which is not good for the S&P.

intra day chart

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_EURJPY&v=w&w=...

daily chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

2nd mentioned this possibility last night. Cup forming on s+p.
Bob

Anybody ever use this index? It is called the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index. This is usually used in conjunction with a moving average crossover to aid in determining optimum entry and outs on a short term time frame on the GDX. It is an end of day position chart only.

Now that's an understatement! It's back to flat on the day.
Should have kept my stop at its original place. Darn.
Now I'm an investor.

Well, today I've been wrong footed about three different times. I bailed out of good positions, took bad positions, and now I'm wondering which way is up. The buck is now falling hard which seems to be goosing the market, but affecting PM only a little bit. And of course all my shorts are not quite as happy as they were this morning.

I think I got played. I'll figure it all out tonight.

I guess this is what Bill meant when he said it won't be painless profits. :)

Nice call. I posted before reading yours.

I don't think we have 'committed' bears/bulls at this point. Weak hands all around, IMO.

.....................

will reload before closing if the price is right.

I am sure the news was out before I saw it but please... or was all this bad news priced in months ago. LOL
disclosure, screen capture from Zero Hedge blog today
and I read here earlier about improper position sizing making small losers into investors. I raised my hand.
peace from North Puget Sound

struggling at the pivot but looking interesting, especially in the event of an upmove. Or a downmove, the screwdoodle that refreshes:) and contains within it the seeds of the upmove.

Not sure I would be hanging in there for that 50% move. JMO.

hmmm thinking same thing short term. took green. waiting for S&P to make its move. Should provide me with re-entry point.

I see you're out already. Too busy to read all posts today.

Until a trend develops, we should take profits when we have them.

rtk...still @Peabody? see patent on tech just issued on Fisher conversion.. might give it a try..looks like same 10 people been buying & sellin' !

I see there was an update from Deninger, thought I'd post it here so we're all aware:

"UPDATE 9:04 AM: The Fed has just announced an intent to award $48B in TAF paper, implying that about half of the $100 billion will roll and the rest drain. Again you cannot be sure until the day passes, and sometimes until the next day, but this is what it looks like."

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1126-T...

I'm not sure of the date of this update (Yesterday or today), it wasn't mentioned...

Taking my own advice.

rtk...seems they trade the inverse to synm....

Natural Gas ETF Has Its Drawbacks

http://tinyurl.com/ltvssy

Haven't read this yet. The date on it is today @ 8:48AM. So there maybe some additional warning signs to UNG holders or future buyers.

I haven't used the $bpgdm, but do use the $bpener (bullish percent energy) as a leading indicator for oil stock tops and bottoms. $bpener set a high over 94 the last day in May so I began looking for shorting setups.

Here's one trader's short description of $bpener.
http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/2008/may/20...

For those interested in bullish percentages for various indexes, they can be found at the bottom of stockcharts.com "Market Summary" page. They are end of day only, updated a few hours after closing.

Bill, how did the visit go today ?

Big GLD buys going into the close. Interesting.

About bloody time. That photo you hang on your webpage is very suave, but not the Bill I see burning under the Caribbean sun. Skin specialist recommended to me won't see me until August. There appears to be local (read global?) demand for their services.

that it is unusual.

not buying though. Wait and see.

Night all.

The next leg in the relay "race" between the two party aristocracy is always just around the corner, and the current hurdles are Va. and Nj. The Reps are hot to trot their way back into Va., which could prove an amusing, informative, and revealing display of effort. But of course the more things change, the more they stay the same, which is why until we actually begin to observe positively convincing moves in the all the right directions, we can all count the axiom into our thesis'.... These politicians just don't know how to keep their hands out of the cookie jar.

-------------------------------------

"This year, Republicans have an exceptional opportunity to knock off New Jersey Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, whose popularity has plummeted alongside an ailing state economy that has necessitated painful budget cuts.

According to a poll taken last week, Corzine trails both Republicans vying for the GOP nomination in the June 2 primary, an unusual and troubling sign for an incumbent.

But of the two off-year gubernatorial elections that are taking place in 2009, it is Virginia, not New Jersey, that Republicans are pinning their hopes on. That’s not to say that the GOP isn’t paying attention to New Jersey or that the party isn’t committed to winning the race. It’s just that in ways that are subtle and not-so-subtle, Republicans are signaling that Virginia is the must-win race of 2009, a contest that will either begin the party’s ignition sequence or reveal the full measure of its desperation. "

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/23123.html

----------------------

Will the candidate who promises to eradicate special interest groups from political influence be the chosen one?

----------------------

NJ: "a new issue has arisen with ominous implications for Corzine: he now has upside-down numbers on the issue of honesty and trustworthiness, 42-44. The Governor’s cave-in to the state employee unions during the recent negotiations adds to the growing view among the electorate that Corzine is unable or unwilling to stand fast against special interests. This perception has the potential to result in increasing negative numbers for the Governor on character issues in the future."

http://www.politickernj.com/alan-steinberg/30521/g...

VA: "Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington nonpartisan group that studies the influence of money on elections, said the way the groups are set up makes it difficult for voters to know who is behind them.

"The challenge is for Virginians to make sure they know who is funding an election," she said. "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06162009/news/regional...

Two NYU grads and a pal who love living in the Big Apple but don't want to pay its high rents are happy campers -- each shells out $100 a month to pitch a tent in a friend's Brooklyn back yard.

my decision a decade or so ago not to go to Stern school of biz just keeps looking better and better...

Bill, Les,

Getting them early is the key. I have had many visits to dermatologists since discovery of first. Most have been classed as pre-cancerous (actinic caratosis), but I go whenever anything suspicious shows up. Bleeding when washing and not healing within reasonable time.

Began with one on nose, but since have had treatment for some on hands, cheeks forehead. A nuisance, but better to check them all ASAP.

Best of luck to you and learn to like shade.

Sunday Afternoons Adventure Hat aka sombrero

http://www.rei.com/product/767086

ALOHA !!

Let's look at unemployment COSTS and strip out all the extra SPIN BS that we see in the media and from the White House.

According to the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT back on June 16, 2008 the US government spent $27.4BIL USD on "unemployment benefits" FY 2008. As of Tuesday, June, 16, 2009 those same "unemployment benefits" are costing the US government $73.6BIL USD, more than 2.7 times what was spent for 2008 at this same time.

Now let's take that data and look at what the "official" unemployment rate was back in May 2008. It was 5.5% ... times that by 2.7 and I get 14.8%. There seems to be a discrepancy between what the US government reports, which is currently at 9.4% versus what their actual COSTS are. How can you fudge published COSTS? COSTS do not lie ...

Furthermore, the actual unemployment rate has to be higher that 14.8% because many have been dropped from the benefit rolls since they no longer qualify because they have used up their allotted benefits. These are the chronically unemployed or permanently unemployed due to illness or injuries. Those types will end up on government SS disability and food stamps.

So your elected leaders LIE ... They are telling so many LIES they can no longer easily cover them up nor can they remember where one lie leaves off and another begins. THIS IS THE NATURE OF INTERVENTION ...

"Intervention at home leads inevitably to intervention abroad. Those who are asking for more government interference are asking ultimately for more compulsion and less freedom." - Ludwig Von Mises 1948

Whats has CHANGED? We now have LESS Freedom and we keep asking for even LESS!

LESS GOVERNMENT NOT MORE!

Bill: “I’d like to hear your comments” regarding currency ETFs.

I like the commodity currencies, of BZF and FXA but acknowledge both have had a great run.

BZF No present position but traded it last year once profitably and another time stopped out with mental stop for a loss. Avg. monthly volume not much @ 90K.

FXA Went long as a hedge at end of January and added in early February, based on fundamentals and low daily RSI (oversold). Monthly trading volume is @ 316K. Options available, but not much option volume and wide spreads. Price is still in upward channel. Bonus has been monthly yield distribution (treated as regular interest income, not as a dividend).

SZR No interest in trading as it is illiquid and prefer to trade S.A. gold miner GFI. Rand is risky currency to play, but when positive, can provide boost to GFI. FD: Currently have Long GFI position, but on a short leash.

CNY, CNB My recollection is that the Chinese government restricts access by foreigners to renminbi. When traveling in China about 15-17 years ago, foreigners could use yuan for transactions, but not renminbi. That said, I don’t plan on trading either the ETF or ETN as the Chinese currency is not a floating currency. The Chinese government sets the price. Thus, totally manipulated.

Although best source for currency prices IMO is the ADVFN site (free membership), having a watch list of the ETFs gives one a quick view of prices that are affecting commodities like precious metals, agriculture, etc without having to maintain another screen or window for ADVFN. Like the idea these ETFs allow the non forex traders exposure to currencies, however the ETFs include a small operational fee.

Right you are!

The government measurement methods are faulty and for viewing by anyone willing to take a few minutes at Census Bureau and BLS websites.

Here in Illinois where we have been down longer than most areas we had an admitted local 14+% early this year — down now because anyone who can leave to find work elsewhere — goes.

Another usually unmentioned aspect is the quality of jobs — fewer hours, lower pay and lack of benefits — which have been swamped with eager applicants.

It is difficult to distinguish between the liars and the idiots who continue to avoid trying to stop the deterioration in America's lifestyle and opportunities for our young people. But then, why try? We need to vote both types out.

"fewer tedious tiffs, less blather, and more useful info"

jock- I don't quite see it that way. For me, the unedited/spontaneous comments come across like improvised riffs, more lather, and very useful info...;) All in the eye of the beholder.

Seriously, sometimes I glean quite a bit from those one-liners:

(a) Often reinforces/negates my own perception of a trade in the same stock/ETF.
(b) Real-time posts of trades (alright, to a reasonable degree) can make for some riveting back and forth during the trading day.
(c) I've actually learned a lot from them. The example that stands out is August 17, 2007. The one-liners in the midst of the harrowing drop in XAU-> PRICELESS.
(d) It's one thing to talk about techniques and strategies. A different kind of learning occurs when you see it happening in real time. (Emotionally, there is no substitute- and trading, at least IMO, often comes down to understanding market psychology and emotional control.) If I had the opportunity to look over Vad's shoulder, man I would jump at it.

In other words, I think those one-liners are "helping us figure out market dynamics and how to trade them?"

JMO.

i welcome the one liners. I use them as a sentiment indicator to see what others are doing & what their reasoning could have been for that trade. I have even traded some, if it looks appealing. Also, it serves as a kind of an alert about stocks or funds or ideas that i might have quite forgotten but traded before. We cannot be watching all markets, all the stocks, so any additional information is always welcome

Personally I'm OK with folk posting their trades, but I'd like to see WHY the trade was made at that point/price.

It took me a while to realize the value of 2nd's trades (price gone too far too fast, so reaction due - correct me if I'm wrong) when he was posting contra trend trades. They were useful to me as they made me pause, as I was generally thinking of trading the opposite position.

That said, if the explanation is too long, nobody will bother to post their trades, so no easy answer.

Overall, I get so much and contribute so little that I'm OK as it is and can filter the "noise". But it does take time and we have so little of that.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$BPNYA,P&pref=G

I was starting to think it would keep ticking to the nineties before the pendulum swung.

Is that a message board you're following, vinod?

A good example...This morning 2nd mention the FAZ etf. It was then, a few minutes later particularly quite buyable and profitable, therefore his one liner about FAZ had significant potential value. Another example...I was talking about PAL a few days back. Anyone who bought it that day AND DID NOT SELL because in fairness it made a pretty nice daytrade that day, but anyone who bought a thousand shares and held is down about three clams, proving that one should be careful about which one liners one gives credence to. Has 2nd always been right? Am I always wrong? Well, certainly no to the first point, and probably to the 2nd as well. I mean the second, not the 2nd:)

Basically I am astounded at the lack of interest so far in the news of the mine re-open schedule, but maybe it will rise through the range providing some daytrades and maybe even a breakout one day. Maybe this summer, after gold bottoms for real around the 2nd week of July. I think the gold miner stocks will offer up better investment entrances during the market's summer swoon and prior to gold going nuts.

Bill....All the best with the skin issue, which I'm sure will turn out fine. I've had a couple of questionable skin things frozen off or chopped off, and I'm fine, and I'm sure you will be too.

The abuses of government are turning up everywhere. Did you get the bit about Christopher Dodd, the chairman of the Banking Committee, getting two VIP loans from Countrywide and considering them "enhanced customer service"?

Rant from the dudes at TBWS here:

https://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/public/showArchi...

Chicken, Is this a release of new printy printy or the real deal? And if so (or not) will this drop the FNMA 30 5% coupons? Our wholesale prices leapt .5% this afternoon after 3 blissful days of lower rates for 30 year loans. Thanks for your perspective. We are not seeing 'normal' flight from stocks to bonds trends here either.

Vinod, thanks for the link to the public stock charts. I thought maybe the summary was the point.
Their credo is.....

Trade with confident not hurry--
Index/market Analysis, Individual daily stock picks..

We are a group of thesmarttraders and investors who utilize both technical analysis & fundamentals to enhance our return's on investments. All smart members are encouraged to share ideas, analysis, opinions, and picks. Many of the members here have been trading together for many years and success in our trading style, but we are always looking for new members who can make this into one of the best 'Thesmarttader' on the web. But first priority will be recommended member who are trading long time with us. Many of the stock picks & opinions posted here can constitute a high degree of risk. We suggest that you conduct your own due deliquesce before placing any trades.

Group Guidelines

-Please do your own due diligence on any stock trades.

-Please this is our family group help each other and making money together.

-All members are encouraged to post their thoughts, picks, sentiment, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, questions, etc. Even if you are still fairly new to investing, we could all benefit from several prospectives.

-Please respect all members. This includes remarks directed at others belief's of religion & politics.

-No pumping or bashing of stocks. Sometimes we can end up on the other side of the trade. There is no reason to get emotional over a stock.

- No penny stocks discuss in our board.

-Have fun & make money together.

This is not investment advice and these charts are for entertainment purposes. Do your own due diligence and consult an investment professional.
-Ahsan Hague

All in all not any different than what we try to do here.
peace from North Puget Sound

oh, yea, awesome charts too. Sure looks like a change in the weather

ALOHA !!

Look to me that the "stars are aligning" over at OBAMALAND!

We have a US FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke, who has studied the Great Depression methodically and has come to embrace what FDR did by devaluing the US Dollar to gold. Now we have a recent face in the media by the name of Christina Romer, who is the Chair of the Council On Economic Advisors, who took office on January 28, 2009. She also is very knowledgeable on the Great Depression and FDR. Here from Wikipedia ...

"She has also researched the causes of the Great Depression in the United States and how the US recovered from the depression. Her work showed that the Great Depression occurred more severely in the US than in Europe, and had somewhat different causes than the Great Depression in Europe. Romer showed that fiscal policy played a relatively small role in the recovery from the depression in the US, because taxes were raised in the US almost as quickly as government spending increased during the New Deal. However, accidental monetary policy played a large role in the US recovery from depression. This monetary policy came first from the devaluation of the dollar in terms of gold in 1933-1934, and later from the flight of European capital to the relatively stable US as war in Europe became more likely.END

I am not to sure how "accidental" it would be to devalue the US Dollar to gold. It seems that would be "premeditated"! I can hear Geithner in front of CONgress say ... "We had to add to the military budget for another quarter and I'm still not paying my taxes ... Oh-h-h ... OOOOPS ... we just devalued the US Dollar to gold ... damn ... sorry, it just kind happened out of the blue ... just slipped out I guess ... Did I just "accidentally" say I'm still not paying my taxes?" Hummmmm???

She claims this ... and yeah, I showed that visa vie historical receipts and outlays for the years 1929 to 1940. "Romer showed that fiscal policy played a relatively small role in the recovery from the depression in the US, because taxes were raised in the US almost as quickly as government spending increased during the New Deal."END During WW2 taxes were raised even more yet the SPEND RATE went down for WW2 versus the Great Depression and FDR's job works programs. Still look how long the Great Depression lasted. Essentially from the Stock Market Crash in 1929 to Pearl Harbor, some 10-12 years.

Whatever ...

So now we have the head of the US FED who likes the FDR idea and we now have OBAMA'S main economic advisor liking the same FDR idea as well! Interesting combo there!

Her pedigrees come from WILLIAM AND MARY, MIT and UC BERKELEY ... From 1985 to 1988 she was an assistant professor at PRINCETON ... Bernanke was a professor at PRINCETON then ... Hummmmmmm??? Small world when Keynesian intervention becomes the global economic model. Its worked well I'd say ...

QUESTION AUTHORITY !!!

Sorry Ron, I don't understand what the triangle screens are.

Could you elaborate please? TIA

"Interestingly, energy prices only rose 0.2% in May from April, even though oil went up 20% on the average. That means that people along the supply chain are taking the hit and they cannot pass these commodity prices along to the consumer - how long do you think that can last?

We need commodities to break so we can get on with a healthy economy but that break is going to hurt as the commoditiy rally has given us more than 1/3 of our market gains since the March 9th bottom."

http://www.tradinggoddess.com/2009/06/which-way-we...

Here's a guy on the same website playing with UNG, often as a paired trade. Does anyone do that here?

http://www.tradinggoddess.com/search/label/Leonard...

Obama talks as if he "knows" and what is needed (always inserts a note of urgency) and claims he will do it. [I'm not much of a believer in polls, but have noticed a drop in his popularity on several issues.]

Sen. Shelby (Banking Committee) on FOX with Greta last night with prompting and agreement from her:

• We first need to identify what the problems were and who was responsible.

• The Fed didn't do its job even though it had the power.

• We must not simply add another layer of regulation or we may further hide future problems.

• Geithner was President of the New York Fed and now Treasury Sec. — NY Fed Pres. is picked by bankers...to oversee their behavior. A bit of a conflict of interest?

My paraphrasing, but pretty close and I think reassuring that this will not be a rubber-stamped, unread bill which slides on through.

Bob Beckel, long time Democrat backer and manager of Mondale campaign, said a few weeks ago, "I think President Obama believes once he says something it becomes an accomplished fact."

I have thought of that comment with each Obama speech since and it seems he may have something there. The problem is not enough media people remind him of all those unaccomplished promises.

"Still look how long the Great Depression lasted. Essentially from the Stock Market Crash in 1929 to Pearl Harbor, some 10-12 years."

If we were to take 16 million people out of the civilian workforce and put them in uniform Obama would "solve" the unemployment issue in far less than his 3 to 4 years.

Edit: To allow for the overall population increase since the last depression it would be approx. 40 million in uniform. This would likely take care of all graduating seniors — high school and college — many minorities who may have been out of work for several years and allow us to import even cheaper employees from elsewhere.

Another plus: We could occupy the Middle East, stay in Europe and beef up S. Korea too.