Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., May 6, 2009

Bill,
Not to confident that HB&B will ever lose this battle. With the current Administration in their hip pocket and their toady
(Sec of Treas. and SEC Chair, Fed head Ben) enablers. How in the world will Change come about?

They don't care. History is on their side. Joe Kennedy helped "fix" the stock market. That is re-rig the game while saying he was protecting the little people. Power never protects the little people. It gives them enough to keep them quiet and under control. This too shall pass, and the games will continue.

RE:>However, what their customers are now telling them is “Screw me once, shame on you; screw me twice, shame on me.”

yes, I never thought of it in such a manner. HB&B has killed the goose that lays the golden egg.

So a resolution must be in order. The taxpayer, from my understanding, is not capable of paying back such a debt without being crushed by taxes - which is what started the first revolution. Yet the finance industry cannot continue without money being fed to satiate the beast.

Who's gonna give first and how long will it take to finish the stand off?

What a time to be learning to trade!

I've learned quickly and painfully to keep clear of the day to day shenanigans.

Good morning.

Upgrades:

DIS - to Overweight @ Barclays. Price Target Raised from $17 to $32
HBC - to Neutral @ JP Morgan

Price Targets Raised:

DIS - from $23 to $26 @ Oppenheimer. Outperform
RIMM - from $70 to $85 @ Oppenheimer. Outperform

yet BAC is getting hammered in Frankfurt.

?

I was surprised to learn that Hussman not only sponsors autism research through Hussman foundation but actually participates in reserch himself. In his recent weekly market update he talks about recent publication in Nature (no less) covering their work:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090504.htm
Scroll down to paragraph called "Cadherin".

RE:>I believe this is less than the forecast.

This is for April, is it? Does Easter have an impact upon figures?

http://www.nymex.com/ng_fut_cso.aspx

DIS - Upgraded to Hold @ Wunderlich

ERTS - Price Target Raised from $21 to $27 @ Wedbush Morgan. Buy

looks like a monster up-day on the back of BAC.

Yamana reported good earnings last night.

I am looking to get on the Ambac train....Choo Choo!!!!

beats me why BAC should be going up, maybe 34B is small change, market was expecting 34T :)

Here's another who, like Bill, sees the market as a casino now.

"So why did Lewis and the rest of the board get re-elected and with such big margins? Because the deck is profoundly stacked against shareholders who want to challenge management."

http://tiny.cc/36qjV

I am going to initiate long in Yamana AND either BAC or ABK.

He's just following the pattern set by Congress — each of whom just got a raise.

Restore the Constitution — Get rid of the current Congress!

ALOHA !!

Anyone here ever actually read FOMC reports?

Here is one dated March 17-18, 2009. This meeting was actually a meeting. Sometimes the FOMC is just a conference call. I will publish the link. Go the link and look at all the people who attend these meetings. These are all the "flies on the wall"! The insiders ...

Back in the 1970s the FOMC meeting minutes used to have actual dialogue published like a movie script, where you could actually read who said what. Now it is just a canned verbiage of "general content" without any dialogue published at all.

Link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcm...

I think it is important to at least once read one of these FOMC meeting minutes so you can get an idea of what this group of private banks wants to do with us. This is where the decisions are made as to where and what Americans will experience in their lives on a financial and market basis.

Here I will only publish the CONCLUSIONS of the March FOMC meeting. Please note how huge the FOMC plans to grow the US FED Balance Sheet ... in the multiple trillions. Clearly the US Banks under the US FED membership are in trouble otherwise why would the US FED go to these extraordinary lengths to take on the bad assets of failed bank policies.

READ ON:
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:

"The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with federal funds trading in a range from 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee directs the Desk to purchase GSE debt, GSE-guaranteed MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. The timing and pace of these purchases should depend on conditions in the markets for such securities and on a broader assessment of private credit market conditions. The Committee anticipates that the combination of outright purchases and various liquidity facilities outstanding will cause the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to expand significantly in coming months. The Desk is expected to purchase up to $200 billion in housing-related GSE debt by the end of this year. The Desk is expected to purchase at least $500 billion in GSE-guaranteed MBS by the end of the second quarter of this year and is expected to purchase up to $1.25 trillion of these securities by the end of this year. The Committee also directs the Desk to purchase longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period. Over the next six months, the Desk is expected to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities. The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability."

The vote encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:15 p.m.:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments."

Voting for this action: Messrs. Bernanke and Dudley, Ms. Duke, Messrs. Evans, Kohn, Lacker, Lockhart, Tarullo, and Warsh, and Ms. Yellen.

Voting against this action: None.END

Keep in mind that the current US Treasury Sec, Mr. Geithner, used to attend these meetings and was a part of the US FED. From 2003 to 2009 he was the the President of the US Federal Reserve in New York. Now that he is the US Treasury Sec it would be a conflict of interest for him to attend these meetings, since the US FED is suppose to be "autonomous" and "independent" from the US government and political divisiveness. Hummmmmm???

So in effect we not only have Goldman Sachs people dominating financial positions at all levels of government but we are also inundated with ex-US FED(private bank) people. There is no end to the CONFLICT OF INTEREST as long as this persists. I return to my belief, based on these indisputable facts, that the US FED needs to be abolished.

ALL OUR BEST THINKING ...

I feel like a dog forced to watch the mailman walk by the gate without responding..... But I think we get an opening gap reversal.
We already know there is weak volume...it can't last.

Reopened HNU.to/UNGyesterday @ $USD 5.32/13.95, so adding both on strength.

OK, Grym, but try not to throw out babies like Ron Paul with that decidedly grubby bath water.

My updated GLD post.

http://tinyurl.com/cmtbot

Q:When this market goes negative, will going long be a short???

Mark- Your target on NGas is 5-6 sometime this year, correct? That would target returns on UNG at 30-60%, and HNU.to @ 60-120%. I think that's worth holding on for.

my instincts are getting good I sold the yamana at XACTLY the right moment based soley on intuition.

Trust it baby.

A place where a bunch of really smart people try to screwdoodle each other out of money endlessly.

2nd- "Your target on NGas is 5-6 sometime this year, correct?" Yep. I've also be collecting AA, X, SQM, etc. If it's in the dirt I'll take a look at it. Besides, I have so much cash right now waiting is no problem. BTW CE now + 150% for the 7 year old. I need a little more patience in my trading account. Yes, I know, but TCK is up...

Got to run. Construction here is picking up, and so must I.

I think the most important part is how he is "surprised by the furor"... It's like he doesn't realize how far out of line that is with the average American. Only 1.5% of US households make over $250k/year. This year he is making over 500 times that level. The high level seems hard enough to justify to the average man, but what justifies a bonus three times what he made last year? It's not like the stock isn't less than half the price it was this time last year...

ok i feel like ive seen this before,

gold stalling but it seems to resolve itself either in a spike up or plunge down. i dont feel like it will sidetrack the rest of the day here... im watching this really really close to see....

In at $15.45, let's see how shareholders like their dilution...

Any followers here? Some salvation....

http://tinyurl.com/dm5zkh

You have to go back to Sept 2008 for these levels. Watching for vix direction and key support areas on s&p and nasdaq.

So C advises it's clients to buy BAC on weakness. No comment I can print...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30598929

I mean, I'm drinking the bull drink of late...I can't ignore the price action...however, get a load of this article. This has got to be the most ridiculous article to ever come up on CNBC. Their "silver lining" on February's 600k+ job loss is that even though 4.8 Million people were laid off some 4.2Million were hired, which is a good sign.

I wonder if they were laughing to themselves when they were writing this.

Beneath the media radar.

Looks like China is actively trying to gain wider use of the renminbi. Down the road, subtle erosion implications for the $USD. Certainly can play into trading decisions for commodities (oil, some agriculture) and PMs.

Tuesday, Everbank’s Daily Pfennig mentioned Financial Times article:

"China and Argentina in Currency Swap"... "China, which is pushing to end the dominance of the dollar as a worldwide reserve, has agreed to a 70 Billion renminbi ($10.24 Billion worth in dollars) currency swap with Argentina that will allow it to receive renminbi instead of dollars for its exports to the Latin American country."

Today, the Daily Pfennig reports

“First of all the currency swap line that China and Argentina agreed to, was actually the 6th currency swap line that China has done in the past 6 months... They have in the books, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Belarus, and now Argentina... Now, when these other swap lines were announced I didn't think too much about them... But now... stop for a minute and think back to last month, when we told you that China was calling for an end of the dollar's reserve currency status...

“All these swap lines are like pieces of a puzzle, and are fitting together very nicely for China”

http://tinyurl.com/cwufbr
"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reaped more than $100 million in trading revenue on a record 34 separate days during the first three months of 2009, up from the previous peak of 28 in last year’s first quarter.

For December, there were 10 trading paydays bigger than $100 million, the New York-based firm said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The first- quarter number was almost double the total for all of 2005"

"Looks like China is actively trying to gain wider use of the renminbi."

I thought China was holding a huge part of US debt, hard to believe they're working to devalue the dollar they've tied their currency to. Maybe they want to rinse and repeat their lending practices throughout the world? To the debt holder go the spoils, right?

EXACTLY chickenpookie,

this is whats missing from most topical analysis of china's aquisition strategy,

people neglect to appreciate that while china has been buying gold, they actually own less percentage wise than they did a few years ago because of the sheer volume of US dollars they intake. yes they slowed down intake for a few months but the broader trend remains that china is a purchases en masse of US debt. period. changes in their forex positions are like massive tankers turning around, they happen much slower than most seem to think.

there is no benefit for china to see the US dollar collapse, if it was, why would they have went to such great pains to accumulate the largest US debt position in the world?

gold purchases are not an issue because they were bought from someone else, they can still be sold by china, and we have no indication of a possible short position. something people like to neglect when talking about bullish scenario's for gold and china.

now if someone suggested the rate of unemployment was slowing in the US, most astute players would laugh and say "yes, but its still job losses that are pilling up", just like chinese currency purchases that while slowing, are still piling up at a faster rate than any gold purchases.

oooohhhhh china entered a currency swap with argentina.... they swap more USD in a few days that what they just did with argentina. this is all propaganda designed to make you believe something that simply does not exist.

like my favourite Hip Hop Group Public Enemy says "dont believe the hype"

peace.

Agreed. Paul and a handful of others — Byron Dorgan, for example.

But over the years the Congress has been allowed to develop rules and practices which put them out of reach of the general population.

Somewhere they acquired the same great deal as CEOs who are paid hundreds of times as much as their average employee — great retirement and health benefits and with enough clout nearly impossible to remove.

A website in Spain is reporting that Chavez will now only allow VZ gold producers to export 30% of their production (compared with 85% now) with 60% having to be sold to VZ Central Bank in order to bolster gold reserves in anticipation of a fall in the US$.

http://www.americaeconomica.com/portada/noticias/0...

My (informal) understanding (via Rusoro management) is that gold production already involved a 15% tax to the government, and had to be sold through a chosen local buyer (which may have entailed additional "costs")

Question is whether such moves will serve as precedents for governments aligned with Chavez (Ecuador, Bolivia for now).

Definitely a daytrade.
The trend is down. Maybe better if it can cross the 50 dma. It has yet to start basing.

I was pretty amazed when 2nd posted his buy, I looked at my chart and the timing was impeccable on a 1min/2hr chart. For a trade.

I think it was 13.95 or .96. If it goes to the 50dma @15.40 then it will turn out as a nice trade. Wait, he's up about a buck....works for me...

Looks like they are leaking capital requirements one bank at a time leading up to tomorrows results release so that the release itself becomes a non-event. Either that or the results come out better than the supposed leaked numbers, in hopes of a positive reaction.

wells fargo needs $15B

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

Thank you to all for the advice. That's why this community works.

HNU.to: 15% gain on the positions opened yesterday, 5% on the positions opened this morning.

UNG: 7% gain on the positions opened yesterday (13.95), 2.4% on the positions opened today.

CTIC up 179% today. I saw this stock on the Yahoo financial home page this morning as "bullish". (Would have made a good day trade)

Right now, volume picking up for BAC and C and Fas -- I don't think we can beat the house. Cave in and buy some C if you haven't already.

vb

the headline in cnbc...

"Sources: Wells Fargo Needs $15 billion, Citi $10 billion, JPMorgan none, stress tests show (story to come)"

check out the David Einhorn thoughts posted at zerohedge

will reload after this drop

Thank you Shiva.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

Does anybody follow investment types biopharma/robotics stocks? any newsletter suggestions? I guess throwing some lottery money on these when they are cheap has big pay-off. I still kick myself for not riding up ISRG over the years

"It would seem that our only weapon is the vote. If things get bad enough, perhaps a movement to vote out any incumbent, including the good guys (just to keep things simple and avoid equivocating), might get started. Hopefully, we will do this before it is too late."

We could borrow from the corporate play book...

Fire them all!

Then hire them back without benefits.

Let them try to find a health insurer who will cover their "pre-existing condition".

Have them manage their own retirement investments.

But first and foremost — Let them wait with in line with hundreds of other applicants for only 10 available job openings at a time.

(I feel better already :-)

RE:Les- Glad to see you're finding a rhythm.

Wise man says - "money lost permits newfound focus".

But I missed the reload there on the dip. Dinner time. The missus gets cranky when I wander off to check the charts...

can't have it all the time ;)

I am watching for a pullback into 3pm, but also will be watching how far the prices follow in relation to the rsi/stoch. If the indicators fall all the way to oversold (5 min chart intraday), yet prices consolidate on less volume into 3pm, i expect a fast and furious close.

Just opinions. Not meant as investment advice.

I loading up on shorts.

thx but please dont boost my ego :) I still am learning as fast as i can and still spend more time focusing on the trades that failed me.

hope you guys are doing well too.

Any news why CEF is down with gold up? Can't find any.

I would also nominate 'Bev.'

Bev- I have no idea what your background is, but your chart interpretations work well for me (normally a very non-chart type of person). No wasted words, and every comment seems to appear exactly when we need it. Appreciate the contributions.

I've bookmarked GS666, and find it amazing how many articles and vids concerning these guys - mainstream and otherwise are making the connections and wondering what can be done about this obvious conflict of interest...

ALOHA !!

Many times on American Idol there are people who are complete strangers who end up being SUPER STARS and win Grammys and Oscars. Makes you wonder just how valid the Hollywood star system is when complete amateurs and total out of loop types can come from total anonymity and reach stardom within a few months.

That got me to thinking as to why don't we start a American Idol for US CONgress and the US TREASURY and scrap the voting system. All our politicians would have to audition and the casting call would cover anyone from anywhere who has never even had any political experience at all. People who cannot even spell "BERNANKE"! No political party affiliation is required and is even verboten! Any US FED or Wall Street connections eliminate you(like having a past history of porn movies and drug addiction)! They will be quizzed on TV about their monetary, economic, business and financial knowledge and there would be background bios on their personal life and charity affiliations. Perhaps even some who could play a mean sax as well! Same American Idol format. Judges would be Bill Cara, Catherine Austin-Fitts, Jon Stewart and Simon Cowell ... HA!!

This would scrap the electoral college crap and the entire DEM/REP two party system.

Same format where TV viewers also vote ...

Hummmmmm ... just a fantasy! HA!!

You know it works like that already Kaimu.

Tick the ballot box... it's voting for the most charismatic person you saw on television.

Central GoldTrust Increases Equity Offering To US$200,194,500 As Underwriter Exercises Its Right To Purchase Additional Units

Whenever CEF does this it has been an opportunity to buy.

Long GTU @37.2

Everyone seems to be expecting one even "The Cara Trading Advisors" group. Here is a little something I picked up from some very good traders and saw it reposted today. Using the $VIX as signal. It is referred to as the...

Berk's BB sell signal.

For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 things:

1. a close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20 day, SMA
2. a close back inside the 2.0 Bollinger Band - this issues the signal
3. a higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 Bollinger Band - this confirms the signal.

***Today it looks like the VIX will close outside the BB.

I wouldn't know where to look for that Bev. But if you could keep us updated on it I for one would be appreciative.

thanks.

Les

Here you go... the $VIX [Daily]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p63570902321

Les

Remember the $VIX is the opposite of the market. As the $VIX goes up the market goes down. So if the $VIX takes off upwards then you want to be on the short side. Got it?

Gold and Silver up and USD down, too.

Broke a 10 month downtrend today.
FD long UNG

This is truly a casino with a circus theme.

http://tinyurl.com/d3zd88

excerpt
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Leaked results of the government's stress tests of 19 large banks are boosting investor confidence in the financial sector. American Express Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. will not be asked to raise more capital when federal officials announce the test results Thursday afternoon, but Regions Financial Corp. will need to bolster its reserves, according to people briefed on the results. The people requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the results.

Took that from an article on businessinsider.com.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/c3mb5a
I am and have been positioned for 3 weeks(ouch) for a retracement.
peace from Whidbey

First a question - Why are most calls/puts rounded to .05, example, .75, 80, 85, etc., but occasionally they are not and might be .72, 81, etc.? Is there any reason for this, or just differences in style of trading?

Sold some more covered calls. Sold July 10s on EGO for .60 (sold them Monday). At the time, the stock price was 8.47. If the calls are not exercised, it is a 7% gain. If exercised it will be a 25% gain on premium, plus stock increase.

Today sold Sept 10s on half my SLW stock for a 11.9% premium and will get a 13.4% gain on stock, if exercised.

Of course, if the TOG ever happens, I will miss a gain, but will take what I can get.

Jock, I'm not recommending anything. I'm just sharing what my actions are/were.

If CEF is a guide, GTU is giving you an opportunity here. The choice to buy or do nothing is yours alone. I try to sell spikes and buy dips. I have owned CEF for years selling the spikes and buying the dips method.

GTU is thin and trades strange at times and its 10 day average volumne is 53x's normal today. Regardless, the action of gold will obviously affect this buy, but we cannot print to infinity without consequences.

Long GTU and CEF

bank stock groups are way UP today, and casino stocks at the absolute bottom. I didn't think there was THAT much difference any more ...

to avoid the daytrade restriction I am presently 1/3 FAS, 2/3 FAZ.

Trying to angle my bets to work for me come closing time Friday.

Bought an XLF September $10 put as well. Give this stupidity some time to exhaust itself.

Bought some GTU as well - the canadian listing. That dilution really knocked the price down. Let's see if the punters remember that in a week or two.

night all.

OK ... Les open wide... Just for you. ;-)

Remember it is theory...not law. But has been reliable in the past. As they say.."It works till is doesn't".

http://tinyurl.com/cdh2tm

Hi Les,

Be careful as both tend to gap up or down every morning.

The market likes data that's "Better Than Expected", so what's next; "Even Better Than Expected"?

Les
"I noticed that $VIX clearly closed outside the bollinger bands and reentered the following close early in April (11 or 12th)"

If you look at, then you will see #1 closed outside, #2 Closed inside and #3 closed lower than #2; thus giving you a "Buy" signal. The market did continued to go up.

Same thing happen again April 17 [Fri], 20 [Mon] and 21 [Tue] which also gave you a "Buy" signal and the market continued its push upwards.

Unemployment is excepted to be at only 8.9%, if it is only 8.8% there should be another big rally.

Bad, BUT less bad!

I am going short the financials (FAZ) tomorrow. I think the gaming of the market will be over with the S&P500 @ 920 level. I am in the SPY only right now, but I might get out tomorrow.

I think buy the rummor and sell the news. I wonder how much more money AIG will need tomorrow?

For those of you keeping an eye on the REIT market, SPG announced stock offering after the close:

http://tinyurl.com/cp2s6m

Quite interesting that the stock traded up 10% today on only 75% of average volume before the new offering.

RSI screen of bear ETF's show FXP in triple rsi buy mode and EEV in accumulation.

risk levels are increasing, comparison of SPX vs VIX and IEF show RSI 79/80. Ditto $RUT:$VXN. Ditto FAS:FAZ

The markets were mentioned 10 min into the NBC Nightly News. "What everyone knows isn't worth knowing" applies IMO.

Paired comparisons of broad asset classes (I use GSP, BND, and VT) show that BND is relatively "undervalued" in comparison to VT/GSP. "Undervalued" for me meaning RSI 7 day is less than 30.

Putting on a buy stop limit order for TMF.

I have been selling poorly entered/conceived positions into this "rally", at slight profits/small losses to raise cash for next opportunities. Given that I can't trade intraday, I have to do more IT/LT analysis and try to stay with the LT trend.

FD: carry both long/short positions. ST very bearish, IT neutral (think this rally is about outta gas), LT bearish.

Do your own homework/screening.

Bear E

I think the outcome is quite obivous. After GS and others have moved the market much farther than anyone could have anticipated they will go short on what they have run up and add to what they need in reserves. Amazing what the taxpayers tarp money can do to guide the market their way.

yep, these boys would have gotten good bonus & when they decide to take summer vacation, market will go down....

This morning before the market opened I wrote:

"looks like a monster up-day on the back of BAC." My man NYU was onto this one even earlier than myself.

What's burning my butter is, and this is why I need assistants and more screens, is North American Palladium. Look what it did today. And I told you guys a couple days ago about this one. It went gonzers.

"All-time high."

True, but when you look at both price and volume it would appear more dollar volume was traded some of the days two weeks ago (week of May 20) when FAZ was in the $10 range.

Shark: Tomorrow call a local techie and have them bring over and install the requisite hardware and monitors to give you what you need to follow all the fishies that you smell but can't track well enough to make the kills. You'll have it paid off in no time! And if it helps us, we'll buy you a tuna fishing excursion at next year's CTAB fest!

FYI, Chavez is being pro-people. Can we in USA say the same? Just don't invest there for a while.

F57- Yes, good point. Most traders allocate money to positions based on dollar volume rather than share volume. I suppose that would apply to trading volume on the indexes as well- when looking at volume bars on charts, wondering if there is some kind of single-click conversion from share volume to dollar volume?

Then again, and especially in reference to the broad indexes, you would think that as the indexes drop, the dollar value of (most) portfolios drop as well. In which case, share volume would suffice for all practical purposes?

Bev- Beautiful. Just what illiterate chart readers like me need ;)

I remember EBAY, which DID make money, selling at a P/E of 3200.

I was STUPID enough to short it (LOL)... and covered, licking my wounds, with a 10% loss.

I was co-founder of a private tech start-up. which raised $300M in equity and $400M in debt. We got our S-1 (IPO document) into the SEC in March, 2000. Just missed the party!

BTW, Sir John Templeton was that much smarter in shorting dot.coms, because he ONLY did it when major blocks of (insider) shares were coming off lock-up.

The insiders knew the companies were trash, and once off lock-up, told their brokers, "get me OUT, whatever the price". They were in for .50 and selling for $50.

That was when the dotcom stocks dipped down, and Templeton said he made $600M with that strategy.

Interesting analysis, Bev - I too appreciate the effort. However, your graph's time-frame is very narrow and, hence, looks quite dramatic. It fails to show that $VIX - and everything else - is coming off multi-decade extremes due to an unprecendented financial crisis. As such, I would only expect outlier moves as we regress quickly back to some normalcy in the capital markets. Unlike many here, I am actually quite unimpressed with this rally as, e.g. S&P 500, is only now catching up with the rest of the planet and is, essentially, even on the year.

Sure, the march 9 - present rally is impressive-looking, but how many of us actually caught it exactly bottom (excluding Bill) and are STILL holding onto those positions. I'd venture to say that the day traders, the swing traders, and the buy-and-holders, all probably have essentially the same return YTD in this casino: modestly up.

Coming Correction? Probably. Taking out the March 9 low? LOL. NOT.

I am interested in hearing that your clients didn't reap the full rewards of TCK's resurgence. I appreciate that your fiduciary responsibilties preclude gambling - and that's certainly what a TCK bet looked like at the time - however, in hindsight, were there some options strategies that you wish you had employed near your perfect bottom-call that could have made it more conservative?

What "agency" are they referring to in the above passage?

"Agency" is codeword for middleman, such as a brokerage agency.

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/freetop.aspx

(Playing catch-up, of course.)

the US are on the Peninsula:

http://tinyurl.com/c4udv5

Cupertino, Mountain View, Hillsborough, Belmont, Foster City. Actually, they all rank in the Top 12.

bobbyo- A chart of LMNVX tells the entire story. Most of us would find it hard to pick ourselves off the ground after driving off a cliff like that:

http://tinyurl.com/crzyv6

But then, most of us aren't watching a car full of OPM take the dive. Then it's not so hard to straighten your tie in time to headline another conference.

Dylan Ratigan, formerly of Bloomberg and CNBC fame — is going to MSNBC. Ratigan will launch a new program weekdays from 9am to 11 a.m., starting June 29.

wpepper, thx. Check the silver chart. It has already broken out, any further confirmation is time to go long.

"The House" just pulled some more rabbits out of the hat!

http://tinyurl.com/dk225l

go citi!

VB

Mr. Cara,
I agree with you about Shark needing to clean up his posts.
BearE

We all saw the nasdaq lag the dow and s&p today. Cisco reported after the close and not only beat, they also made some rosy business climate comments. This may help the nasdaq play catch up and lead tomorrow. if there are no new banking bombs.

http://tinyurl.com/djjpmt

I agree with Telestar3d, If readers have a issue with someones comment click the ignore! Watching a few people change the way the majority of people live is becoming the new "Democracy"

Excellent article:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/putting-it-a...

"ask yourself the following questions: when will the emergency measures end? What will the system look like at that point? What is the exit plan from all this extra spending? What in these programs is designed to facilitate or catalyze solid non-inflationary growth? What kind of better behavior is incentivized in the program?"

If you want to read more click above.

Although the bullish action this week has helped me make money, i must remind myself this can reverse in a heartbeat. With that said I am ready to book all my gains and move swiftly to short positions.

If the 8-9:30 session is negative on above avg vol I am selling all and waiting until 10am to see the flop hit the table.

If the 8-9:30 session is positive on above avg vol, I will keep my bullish positions until i see a reason to sell.

I will also be watching the volume on various put options and call options on DXD.

Repeating to myself "I am not a bull nor bear, just react to what i see"

Stocks are sold right? by your brokers to you furiously on the phones? And they are much easier to sell and spin when they are moving up. Someone is selling all these shares.

RE:>Be careful as both tend to gap up or down every morning.

Yeh, I know, but consuming these products in small quantities, hedging on a daily basis (selling pre-market, purchasing at close), I'm looking for a pivotal point in this rally today, friday or even monday (although I'm not sure I'm game enough to hold a serious position over the weekend).

If this rally remains the wishy washy undecided course that it is then such a position will come to naught. But if a decisive move happens (probability lends towards negative at the moment, but I'm prepared for further positive movement) then these holdings may pay over 2 to 3 days.

We shall see.

RE:>For those of you keeping an eye on the REIT market, SPG announced stock offering after the close:

huh! A new cushion of cash being sought out for the kick in the pants coming. Sound like SRS will be the go sooner rather than later.

Thanks VB, I love the act! What a cute little bunny rabbit. Pity the investor in the mortgage industry.

"Another provision of the bill will shield mortgage service companies from investor lawsuits when they lower monthly payments for troubled loans."

Go USSA! All the way!

I don't have any weight on this site, but I agree with Telestar3d.

Why rob a community of a good nose, even if there is some baggage that comes along with it. On a community level I think he brings a lot to the table. On an individual level some might have to put up with some garbage, or if they dont' feel it is worth it, press the ignore button.

There are even some ways that remove all posts that aren't from people you've bookmarked. I'll see about posting my script on the blog soon. It basically a css modification that removes any div that has a class of "comment" that doesn't have a class of "comment-flagged-user". So you don't see anyone's comments if you haven't bookmarked them.

If anyone is familiar with firefox addons, I've just used the greasemonkey addon to change the css of the site(at times when I'm looking for just highlights). My script would set all non comment-flagged-user to style="display: none" which would hide them all.

I have noticed a lot lately a big difference in technical charts and analysis for the same stock in UK Sterling charts using iii and then in NYSE charts using stockcharts. Obviously the difference is being caused by currency fluctuations, but which chart do you use for technical analysis purposes , examples of stocks I look at being GSK,BP, RDSB ,CCL ,Diageo.Do you give emphasis to the stock chart in its own currency or the market where it has the most trading. I suppose its a question of having to take currency movements into consideration and trying to figure how they will change,into your deliberations.Anybody got any thoughts on this , maybe I have missed something really obvious, I understand the basics of Tech. Analysis and use it but am no expert.

Just noticing Gold pushing higher here this morning up at 915 at the moment,
I use this webpage for live Gold pricing they also have TA tools there is a live Silver chart link too(Also Pall,Plat,brent oil EUR/USD etc.).I am not promoting them , I just like the free charting they offer, maybe others would like too,

http://tinyurl.com/63rb3w

Telestar3d wrote :

"My point of all this is this: if you have a problem with Shark tell him here for all to see and stop bad mouthing him behind his back or use the ignore button."

This is Bill's blog ... he's the one making the judgment call.

But just to let you know, I did exactly what you propose and I got a virulent hate mail from Shark Attack for my troubles. Bill has shown incredible patience and is IMO honestly trying to help the man.

I took Bill's message on the subject today as a compliment to Shark's prowess and perhaps as a motivational message. In this specific context, I applaud both participants.

Telestar3d wrote :

"My point of all this is this: if you have a problem with Shark tell him here for all to see and stop bad mouthing him behind his back or use the ignore button."

I'll add my name to the above.

As Bill may remember, I too have offended in the past. People with strong feelings sometimes need to follow Archie Bunker's advice to Edith and "stifle".

I need to do this when he hits a hot button of mine — bad-mouthing the USA on whatever issue or policy. (I know we're not perfect, but I love this country regardless and it hurts the same as any racial, religious or sexual remarks.)

But I haven't hit the ignore button. I believe he can learn self control and continue to contribute much here.