[7:35am ET] Appropriately on Canada Day today, I noted an article in the National Post by the country’s leading business and finance writer Diane Francis.
This story on Bernard Madoff is conjecture perhaps, but is the most likely true version of events that has been reported to date. The bottom line is that Madoff was a money launderer and there was no investment fund or investment holdings per se – just ten percent plus $x in and ten percent out as a return of capital if you will, where the x factor was Madoff’s fees for fronting the scam.
http://www.financialpost.com/most-popular/story.html?id=1745220
This money laundering scenario makes the most sense to me as it would be impossible to actively manage $60 billion on Wall Street without an army of mostly independent people being somehow affected in their day to day jobs – people in back offices, on trading floors, lawyers and accountants, counter-parties to block trades, and so forth. Internally, Madoff would have needed an army to actively manage such a massive sum, and apparently there was no army.
So, yes, the most plausible story here is not one of investment scam – although for sure there were a few thousand innocent investors who did invest real money with real goals and objectives – nor even a Ponzi surrounding actual trading, but just a case of fronting for real tax evading culprits. Bear in mind, these are big and dangerous people and maybe that’s why the SEC looked the other way for so many years.
In any case, more will be written about the Madoff matter; nothing stopped just because the man received a ridiculous prison sentence of 150 years. There are investigations underway and it’s likely many more culprits will be discovered and prosecuted.
I expect to see a lot of writing about this matter from Diane Francis because she truly embodies the notion of financial journalism, and this is a big story. Back in April, for instance, she opined that Bernanke and Paulson had violated securities laws in the Ken Lewis Bank of America – Merrill Lynch deal, which I was pleased to see even though I was later dismayed to see that schmuck Lewis give congressional testimony that Bernanke and Paulson were just doing their jobs effectively.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/archive/2009/04/23/bern...
I do think it is important for aspiring financial writers to have a role model, and clearly Diane Francis is someone worthy in that regard.
http://www.dianefrancis.com/bio.php
Canada eh? Have a great day. Wave your flags. At least I know you’ll have them right side up.
Comments
The Waiting Game/ Minimalism
repost from yesterday's discussion:
I re-read Buffett's biography last year (Roger Lowenstein).
He waited in US Treasuries for nearly a decade until the mid-1970s — then bought like crazy.
I was reminded of a cat waiting for a mouse.
We humans tend to think we control things...
...but controlling ourselves and letting "things" just happen would often be best.
Grym
Madoff
Very interesting and plausible.
The first truly thoughtful view I've seen anywhere.
Thanks for the link, Bill.
VWEHX
mSquare,
Thanks for the heads-up on the corp bond fund. I decided to park some cash there also.
Mostly I'm simply conserving in VFIIX (in tax deferred account) while I wait for a better idea, but picking up a bit more yield is worth some risk.
Re: The Waiting Game/ Minimalism>>Deal With It
Grym- I was driving my 7-year-old to Target last week, as I had promised him a Bakugan Reaper (you have to be around young kids to know what they are) once he finished his second piano book. Along the way, he asked "Dad, what if they don't have a Reaper?" Before I could respond (I was going to say something along the lines of "We'll keep looking"), he said "Deal with it, right?" "That's right," I laughed.
The following day, I laughed even harder when he asked, "Dad, what does 'deal with it' mean?"
Almost all of my trades in the past few weeks>> Had I waited another hour/day, instead of taking minor losses, they would all have paid off. I'm just going to deal with it.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning. Lots to report....looks like it's dump on MYGN Day.
Downgrades:
MYGN - to Sector Perform @ RBC
MYGN - to Perform @ Oppenheimer
MYGN - to Sell @ Morgan Joseph. Price Target Lowered from $42 to $24
New:
ABB - Robert W. Baird Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $20
ORCL - Caris & Co. Initiates Coverage with an Above Average. Price Target = $25
Resumed:
MYGN - Piper Jaffray Resumes Coverage with an Overweight. Price Target = $42
Price Target Raised:
ATVI - from $14 to $16 @ FBR Capital. Outperform
INTC - from $18 to $19 @ AmTech Research. Buy
Price Target Lowered:
BBBY - from $33 to $32 @ FBR Capital. Market Perform
MYGN - from $30 to $25 @ Benchmark. Hold
A few interesting charts
Those below are just rough trading ideas based on individual daily charts at the moment - do your DD, consider sectors and general market mood.
BX Bearish, short on 10.50 - 10.40 zone breakdown; nearest support is 10 for covering part or taking profit; if loses 10,nothing but air below till 9.
CKR Bearish, short 8.30 break, there are some support levels at 8 and 7.50 - 7.60, a lot of air under it.
SWY Bearish, short on 20.10 - 20 zone breakdown. Nothing but air to 19, then to 17, and if loses 17, nothing but air at all.
IDCC Bullish, a bit vague resistance to break, probably 24.50 - 24.70 zone; after 25.40 minor resistance there is not much till 30
MRX Bullish, kind of self-explanatory chart
CPHD Bullish, long on 8.60 break, nearest resistance levels are 10 and 11, nothing but clear sky above
Keep your stops
I can't understand why Myriad ( MYGN ) would preannounce
this week when there is so much opportunity for manipulation downward...(Perhaps there is a minimum-time frame before earnings release)... I don't know.. I thought last night about the total butt-kicking CELG got on their preannounce, and although the $ 27.00 range looks great ( and may not even get there), it could move to $ 25.60 range on a really violent swing around 11:00 am... I have not owned any...
Re: A few interesting charts
Vad to the rescue! Like being lost in the jungle, and a guide shows up ;)
ERX
Mark- I could tell you how I feel about the 30.18 pre-market bid. But I won't.
Correct Bill
The Madoff prosecution, while correct and fully justified, has been touted in the media; it's scope expanded to be comprehensive of the whole of the financial crises, i.e. Bernie Madoff is being blamed at this point for bringing down the entire financial system. In truth, it was Goldman Sachs who brought down the financial system, and Bernie is the convenient scapegoat.
His trial and the RIDICULOUS sentence he received have strong elements of a Stalinist-style show trial although Bernie never capitulated really.
All that's left now is a short walk down a darkened hallway and a bullet to the brain.
Come to think of it Bernie could have made a better impression at trial if he'd used his trial to put the SEC on trial. That would have been a mud bath.
More and more as time goes by we see that never will the day arrive when the electorate pines for the good old days of Bill Clinton and company. CLinton's administration was marked not by accomplishments but rather by it's lack thereof. Can you think of a single Goshdarn thing Clinton ever did beside letting gays stay in the military's long and illustrious closet, and getting rid of "welfare as we know it"?
It's looking more and more like, instead of stepping into a ready-made political career, young Chelsea will have to content herself inseat with being the multi-multi-millionaire daughter of a cracker ex-president liar.
Life is SO UNFAIR!
Cara 100 Update
For those of you still following former Cara 100 NTES:
Price Target Lifted from $33 to $43 @ Brean Murray. Buy
Re: ERX
GD it! I guess I'm going to have to deal with it.....
Re: ERX
Well, that makes dealing with it a little easier for me (LOL).
Diane Francis, Madoff
Thanks Bill for the heads-up on the article by Diane Francis. Her conjecture makes much more sense than most of the news reports, and in the last 20 or so years Ms.Francis has usually been right.
Note that part where she recalls that "friends" in New York were told:"You don't want to be part of this".
Still, I strongly believe that the SEC failed miserably here. BTW.Ruth Madoff withdrew 11 million just before Bernie's arrest. Tipped off? And what happened to the money?
Re: Madoff
The worst thing about the Madoff affair is that he seems to have become the lightening rod for all that went wrong in the markets. Meanwhile, those with even greater culpability in this disaster - who have been identified here by Bill and many others - carry on as if nothing has changed. And when you look at it, has anything really changed? For the positive, that is?
Europe's gap up too obvious, quick fake out to start?
...
Bill - did you see Dennis Kneale on CNBC rip bloggers?
who disagreed with him. seems like BS to me. I wish you would have gone on CNBC because the blogger they got did not argue his side real well.
http://thehonesttrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/dennis...
Re: Bill - did you see Dennis Kneale on CNBC rip bloggers?
Dennis= A transparently boot-licking capitalist toady, a complete sycophant. Should go on a date with Larry Kudlow, they'd be happily ever after those two.
Re: Bill - did you see Dennis Kneale on CNBC rip bloggers?
And Dennis Kneale's claim to fame is what....former editorial wonk at FORBES now on tout TV...he should be on SNL
Re: Madoff
Let's not forget that Madoff surrendered, gave himself up. The SEC did nothing! News reports have glossed over that the failure was in the enforcement of the rules and regulations that are already on the books. Suddenly we have had several ponzi schemes and others charged in the recent time period following Madoff. It's like a police dept. that gets critized for doing nothing so they go out and find the lawbreakers that were there all along. There won't be justice until Christopher Cox, head of the SEC, gets canned or announces his "retirement". It was under his watch, his responsibility, and his accountability. The policitians will naturally overreact, but they should increase the staff and accountability within the SEC to actually do their jobs. We don't have to build a new house, just clean the one we've got. Ultimately many will pay the price for a few. G
Re: Bill - did you see Dennis Kneale on CNBC rip bloggers?
It was a book from the FAUX network playbook....look like you are giving someone a chance and then talk over him and cut it short.
See the FAUX/CNBC/Bloomberg Ron Paul playbook.
Oh, we have to cut to commercial or we have a technical difficulty....
For other GORO investors, should there be any
Hochschild took another bite
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFL12...
Conference call at 11 EST
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-Resource-Corpor...
Re: ERX
2nd- Just got lucky on this one ....off @ 30.71.
Re: ERX
Congratulations, man. I know your basis was 28.28.
Canada Day
Everyone,
I am proud of all the dynamic, moral, compassionate, talented, forward-thinking Canadians at home and abroad -- in and out of uniform -- who uphold Canada's reputation as a force for good in the world. It's a dented and scratched reputation to be sure, but just ask the thousands waiting at the front gate whether it's a valid one.
Today I will:
-- Place the red-and-white in the flagstaff on the front of my house, where it will stay until the weather turns.
-- Think again of the people of all ages, origins and beliefs who stood with me decades ago in a big room to sing O Canada. I wish for them all that their lives in Canada have been as fulfilling as mine.
-- Eat, drink and play with family and friends... just because I can.
-- Take in some more of this magnificent country's natural beauty. I'll never get enough.
-- Send you all best wishes from the north. May we all work together for a better world.
Jack
Re: Bill - did you see Dennis Kneale on CNBC rip bloggers?
I'd watch it if they didn't whack a sponsor advert beforehand. Some days I just can't be bothered, especially when its a talking head.
Re: VWEHX & Parked Cash
I am glad my heads-up worked for you Grym.
In my effort to move away from funds to ETFs, moved my 'parked us$' from VWEHX/VWAHX to ETFs JNK & LQD. JNK has more yield than VWEHX and being an ETF I can place a stop-loss under it easily (to avoid a big drop of say 6% - about 6 months of yield)
I would also look at the currency funds such as FXA (Australia). This is not much a currency play but get a 4.5% yield with decent potential to additionally gain due to us$ weakening against resource-rich Australia
Re: Correct Bill
What Clinton accomplishments? Well if you traveled in Europe at the time, you had the rare privilege of being welcomed and respected as an American. The world welcomed a president of the U.S. that was percieved as progressive and articulate. You also enjoyed a strong dollar resulting from an expanding economy at home. Human rights were put to the forefront, and the U.S. rejoined the world in solving common problems.
Civil rights legislation, and environmental protection and an attempt at rationalising health care.
He was a self made man, not a dynastic (lucky sperm club) inheritor of office,
a Rhodes Scholar.
His presidency was so successful, he had to be damaged politically to prevent the shoe-in that Gore would have enjoyed.
I was not a fan of Clinton at the time, seeing him as too ready to compromise with the rightwing and establishment business (as banks/brokerage).
What would have happened had he simply said that his sex life is "none of you G*damned business" when cornered?
Compare that to the monumental lies that followed for the next eight years....
AIG
With the 1:20 Split yesterday doesn't it seem that it has some upside here? Basically 2 days ago it was trading at $29, now it's $21? Anyone have any experience with splits like this?
AIG
What happened here??????????????????
was anyone here holding aig? ??
I was holding several hundred shares at one point but dumped them at a loss.
bummmmer
vb
Re: AIG
VB- If you held you would only have 8 shares now. NBD
Reminder of Twigg's outlook for spot prices with GDX above 40
"Gold miners, however, tend to lead the actual gold price. The Gold Miners Index [GDX] displays a bearish ascending broadening wedge. Breakout below $35.50 would test the lower border, threatening a secondary correction. Recovery above $40 would indicate an upward breakout and continuation of the primary advance — a positive sign for spot prices."
GDX might be closing above 40 today.
That's gotta be an error with AIG??
Re: AIG
lol - your several hundred shares would now be 15 shares AND worth considerably less than the several hundred were - GOOD DUMP! :)
Re: Reminder of Twigg's outlook for spot prices with GDX ...
Les- POG back to 940...Pretty much line in the sand time, no?
Re: AIG
OKay, reverse split so I guess my instinct was correct these guys are sleezebuckets. Better stay focused on trading today. hey mark, hope you are feelin better on the slw and auy. :)
From econoday
Crude oil inventories (weekly change) prior -3.9 M barrels, actual -3.7 M barrels
ACI
Could be a breakout above 15.70 just beginning, maybe we'll see 16.40 by eod. There was a notice this morning about a small increase (5k) in call option activity.
DYODD. Disclosure: I own a small amount of ACI.
Re: Reminder of Twigg's outlook for spot prices with GDX ...
Looking for that extra catalyst Mark. I've been burned by the vagaries of gold prices too many times to consider this price a line in the sand, without other bullish factors that may influence it in a positive manner.
Bill knowing this market, Twigg's giving an if/then scenario gives me greater confidence than the POG
Heavy surf/ Be careful
I would be careful wading in on the short side. Even in shallow water a riptide can carry you out:
http://tinyurl.com/m2awln
I have no take on how much higher they can take it, other than my concerns two evenings ago regarding how easily they ramped up the indexes in Tokyo and Hong Kong. The market will not necessarily behave according to even the most insightful analyses.
No positions, and no plans to take any.
For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Just signed up for stock charts membership. After 24 hours with Twigg's charts I was getting cranky. Unfamiliar interface, different layout/schematics that distracted me from seeing the chart as easily as I'm used to with SC
(gave Twigg's one month's membership for his timely and thoughtful e-letters, my good deed for the day ;)
Yet signing up for Stock Charts "middle of the road", not too basic, not too expensive package I have found that SC provides me with charts of the following dimensions:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&b=5&g=0&i...
This stinks for a membership package! I bookmarked someone else's chart in the past with its grandiose size and happily SC recognises my membership when I use the bookmark now:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=1...
question: why the crappy little chart size on my membership package? who is getting the deluxe size charts in their membership and which membership package is it. I thought package no. 2 and 3 had same chart sizes.
Stupid, cause I have to continue using someone else's bookmark to keep the large chart size.
TIA
econoday petroleum status report
At 10:30 USO basically fell off a cliff on heavy volume, possibly due to this report released at that time. It has since continued down, giving up almost all its gains for today.
Big builds in products lead weekly inventory data with gasoline up 2.3 million barrels and distillates up 2.9 million. The builds reflect soft demand and firm output. Demand for gasoline is up only 0.9 percent year-on-year while demand for jet fuel is down 9.4 percent. Capacity utilization is at 87.0 percent vs. sub-80 readings earlier in the year. The builds in products won't increase demand for crude oil where stocks fell 3.7 million barrels in the June 26 week to 350.2 million. Oil fell 75 cents to $71 in immediate reaction to the results.
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
were you logged on, Les?
Anyway, both of those charts you posted are available for free.
Re: Correct Bill
the economic strength was not of his making. He had the confluence of three huge trends. Technology/internet, Greenspan's bubbles, and the callable treasuries issued by Volcker in the early 80's. He also had a hand in turning FNM/FRE into debt casinos.
Re: The Waiting Game/ Minimalism>>Deal With It
2nd—ave,
I love your great story. My two boys are now 47 and 44, but kids can sure be surprising. I recall a day driving along and out of nowhere Jeff, who was in first grade popped up with, "Dad, you were in the army, right?" (VietNam was on the nightly news then.)
I didn't want him to worry and started to tell him that when I was in nobody was shooting, etc... he cut in again.
"I was just thinking, what if nobody went? Then they couldn't have a war."
Maybe kids should be the ones to "deal with it."
------------
Don't bother to tell your son, but McCormick already invented a reaper :-)
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
yep, in the member package control center. Click on a sharp chart, get this crappy little chart to play with.
Will email these guys and ask what's up. This size chart is for the basic package as far as I can tell.
yeh, I wouldn't voluntarily pay for something that is free. I want to start storing charts for daily scanning, automatically updated.
USD
Who lit a fire under USD this morning? Up strongly with unimpressive volume, but lots of long white candles. Volume has declined over the past 30+ days but a few buyers are in there today, making a good show. Rotation?
Stimulus Chill
It seems like being on the precipice of stimulus is having a chilling effect on the economy at this point.
Re: Correct Bill
Good points Zed...
What about Berlusconi? He has a thriving sex life for an 80- year old and he's not widely respected in Europe...what about that?
What about the health care plan that Clinton PROMISED to pass, had the congress for at least 2 years and passed NOTHING.
Oh wait...He did oversee the overturning of Glass Steagall, in concert with his butt-boy Robert Rubin on November 12 1999, clearing the way for the devestation we now enjoy. He was a total conniver. The only reason he was even allowed to run for president was because he oversaw George The First's
CIA dope importing business, coke actually, which used a runway in Arkansas compliments of Slick Willy, a nickname given to him by his friends, in admiration for his rhetorical skills, not his enemies.
He managed to destroy welfare-as-we-knew-it just prior, it turns out, to the biggest need in world history for precisely that accomodation. People are starving to death in America.
I suppose his greatest crime, the one he should be put in front of a brick wall and shot for, was being a traitor to his party's ideals. He set the party back 30 years and paved the way for George the 2nd.
Other than that, and being one smarmy sonofabitch, Bill CLinton was a great president. And I'm very, very glad that the Europeans approved:) That was keeping me up at night, worrying what the Slovakians think.
Re: Correct Bill
shark,
Since reading the article a number of things have come to mind.
"Come to think of it Bernie could have made a better impression at trial if he'd used his trial to put the SEC on trial. That would have been a mud bath."
What if the SEC knew about Madoff and was simply ignoring the laundering? Think about all the possibilities of who may have been using his services. Goldman Sachs, Congressmen (they were in Pres. Jackson's day), big business, government to paramilitary other nations — we know there is a lot of "off-budget" stuff — endless list of possible clients.
So how many other Madoffs are there?
Well, it could be a good movie and I expect a bunch of books.
Re: Correct Bill
He did find a new use for the Cigar.
" The Fed's made money free.... why not buy (stocks) "...
From guest on cnbc just now.... With that, I am going to walk.....
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Les, I bought the "Real Time Charting" option and it does most of anything I need, including annotations that can be saved for interactive future chart use, i.e. your annotation shows as the live information changes. There are options to adjust screen " Type, Size, Color Scheme" and much more under "Chart Attributes". Look for that and see what you can do.
Good luck.
Re: Correct Bill
LOL! Love ya shark, but if you'll flip the pov I'm pretty sure there are a lot of Europeans thinking the same of some NJ Italian guy's opinion on a financial blog...
Re: AIG
"hope you are feelin better on the slw and auy. :)"
well, i'm sold what i bought in yesterday for a small profit.. :)
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Les
By chance, does this answer your question about the chart sizing at Stockcharts.
3 korean banks
KB SHG WF, especially KB is loosing it's kite-string...
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Les, Have you tried changing the dropdown for the Size? The first chart you posted shows a size of 460, the second was marked as Landscape.
Re: 3 korean banks
KB and SHG both ended with high volume yesterday...
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
AH SWEET! You're the greatest Bev!
Now we're cooking with gas:
http://tinyurl.com/m5qh9v
AH how I have lived in ignorance. Oh mighty one, would you be so kind to tell me how you annotate and post the url as well? When I opened the separate window to annotate the chart it was impossible to cut n paste its url.
MRX
Hi Vad - Thanks for your guidance / I have been looking for an entry on this one to satisfy the higher authority who likes the restylane/perlane products for recurring scar treatments from injuries in a previous car accident. Happy Trading
KGC/AUY
Sold both...AUY can't seem to break above 9.30 (flat) and KGC hit my 8% return.
Re: MRX
Luggie,
you know about it way more than I do, I just skimmed over charts with no regard to stories/fundamentals :)
Anyway, with this volume of slow summer trading, be careful with them all, this environment is not very conducive to any sensible trading in time frames beyond 1 min 43 seconds...
JPM Chase credit card company
JPM Chase credit card company says today that minimum payment on monthly balances will increase from 2% to 5%.
I am sure glad the credit squeeze is getting better! This will hurt a lot of people. I imagine that failure to pay will then initiate higher (! HIGHER !) interest applied. Probably end up increased profits for cc companies. I think the water just got 1 degree hotter.
peace from North Puget Sound on the opening day of crab season. I think they need a traffic cop out on the water today. lol
China asked to debate proposals for new global reserve currency
Reuters reports China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight summit in Italy and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, G8 sources said on Wednesday. One G8 source who was involved in the negotiations said China made the request during preparatory talks about a joint statement to be issued on the second day of the summit in L'Aquila by the G8 plus the G5 (Brazil, India, China, Mexico and South Africa) and also Egypt. This forum, the so-called "G14", meets on July 9 to discuss the financial crisis, trade and climate change and for the first time a G8 summit will also produce a joint G14 statement. A European source with knowledge of preparations for the summit also said China had raised the subject of a reserve currency debate and that it might be mentioned during the meeting, though the source added: "Any country at the meeting can raise issues they see fit. But whether there is a specific mention in the communique remains open," said the European source, adding that sherpas would discuss this further in preparatory talks on Friday. The debate centres on proposals by some emerging powers that an alternative should be found to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, to reflect the shifting balance of power in the globalised economy.
Something to consider
To quote Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading:
"I have a feeling one day the door is gonna close, everyone is going to be running for the exits, there is going to be a major move in the market and everyone is going to wonder "what happened?"
There is problem structurally in the equity markets that nobody wants to talk about. There is intervention, there is manipulation going on. No one has exact proof of what is going on but it's out there, and the real liquidity has been gone for a while. People don't understand, the liquidity is not coming back."
See video here:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/themis-tradi...
Tim Knight latest...
"I went through all my charts last night and in the wee hours of this morning, and I've lined up 99 bearish opportunities. Given the strong bullish bias of pre-July 4 trading, I might hold off until tomorrow to jump in with both feet, but there is a wealth of great shorts waiting to be had.
I'll also mention that I've succumbed to the advice of Slopers and exited my TBT long this morning. I took a small four-figure profit on the trade, but I recognize the danger of the H&S pattern and no longer have this position."
Re: Bill - did you see Dennis Kneale on CNBC rip bloggers?
Here is the blogger he attacked. I think he defended really well, you can read it yourself.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/dennis-lets-...
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Les,
once you have your chart annotated, you (1) click "Upload" in the upper right hand corner, (2)close the Java window, and (3) go to the drop down box called "Charts" with the words" -Your Saved Charts-" in it. You will find your chart on that list by whatever you named it.
Good Luck!
Mark
Re: Something to consider
Forgot to mention... in the video from the 4 min mark on is an eye opener. True you may know it already but he just seems to make it even more believable.
"The liquidity is not coming back"
The mainstream news media is finally picking up on what Bill has been saying about the market...
Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading on Bloomberg TV
"I have a feeling one day the door is gonna close, everyone is going to be running for the exits, there is going to be a major move in the market and everyone is going to wonder "what happened?"
There is problem structurally in the equity markets that nobody wants to talk about. There is intervention, there is manipulation going on. No one has exact proof of what is going on but it's out there, and the real liquidity has been gone for a while. People don't understand, the liquidity is not coming back."
Video: http://tinyurl.com/km2tx5
the road to 1000-ville?
gold doing a jig today,
currently sitting at $944 range, right up against the high from a few days ago, we have seen this before after plunges where gold jumps back up to the previous few days resistance points. these are critical points as gold's failure to breach the mid $940's on this move would to me suggest gold is moving back down, to break above it might ignite the spark many of us are looking for on the next move to 1000-ville, that magical place where dreams are made and broken, where streets are lined with paper gold ETF's, double levered bull funds. ah yes, its a wonderful place i hope you get a chance to visit....
Re: Something to consider
Bev - I don't read ZH much anymore, do they ever mention that consumers must still drive to work, feed their children, and replace non-durable items?
Not to say they are wrong, however, it seems to me ZH rarely, if ever, takes an objective appraisal on the economy. I've noticed their data are often incomplete and not well researched.
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Les, I may be stating the obvious. Regarding size of chart, click on the Size drop down box in the 2 nd line of attributes. See...http://preview.tinyurl.com/kjp4oz
Hope this link works. I will duplicate and take a snippet of the chart also, see link below. As you can see, I normally put the RSI and MACD and stoch on top. I also normally view in landscape but in the link below, I was using 620 size so I could read list of stocks in window behind it.
forgive me if this is not what you are complaining about. I am NO WAY talented in this.
peace
More on Madoff
Bernie says he just got tired of the whole scam and decided to turn himself in. Just once I'd like the SEC and criminal investigators in this case tell us the one fact we need to know: Right before he gave himself up, did Bernie deliberately delete all his emails and personal computer records in order to hide the money he stole, and protect the people he was working for? That would tell me everything I need to know.
Portfolio Killers
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/07/portfolio-kille...
There must be another fifty.
Re: More on Madoff
My opinion,
No, I believe Madoff saw the handwriting on the wall Way before and had already deleted those emails and trashed the computers. He knew his days were numbered and felt the heat intensifying. All his cohorts did the same thing. This is wall street and how it is run today , Yes, the SEC knew (on some level) - just like the FDA knows that Splenda is not safe but lets JNJ profit. (I own JNJ just because this is how the game is played) you don't make money betting against the regime in this market
I do agree with shark that madoff should have used the trial to put the SEC on trial and expose the whole thing but he was probably working a deal in the back room to try to save his wife and kids from getting indicted
sorry, just my 2 cents and hope I didn't go over board but I think the whole shebang has to go down in order for our economy to get back on track. That is why i own gold and oil for long term and invest in BRIC.
vb
Re: More on Madoff
This has been my question all along! I Second that Motion!
HA!
Oh and Eh?
indu:xeu
Is that forecasting a drop in euro? seems the leverage is gone and at a double top with neg divergence?
ps that 50,2 bb pinch usually denotes a large move imo, which way?
Re: Something to consider
Chickenpookie
I am not following you. Zero Hedge has always given me the impression by the posts that all is not well, no matter what the banks and government are telling us. So are you saying all is well and improving and Zero Hedge is not reporting this [do they ever mention that consumers must still drive to work, feed their children, and replace non-durable items]? Help me to better understand your statement.
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Les, start with the help index here, there is a post which covers the basics of chart and link posting, direct link as follows.
http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po...
Next I would look at the post on "Chart and Link Posting 101" over on the IHUB "Stockcharts Users Support Forum" Note it was written mostly for posting charts on IHUB forums but most of it is still applicable here.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx...
I would also read many of the posts on the IHUB "Stockcharts Users Support Forum" I'm sure you will find lots of information, particularly on setting up and writing scans. There is a link on the Stockcharts website to the user forum but I forget where it is, so here's a direct link to that site. You can read for free but if you want to post you will have to sign up, just use the free registration.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?bo...
To avoid too much off topic stuff here I would suggest you post questions over there, or email me with the contact the author function and I'll see what I can do.
PS do you have the Basic or Extra membership, as it will dictate how you can post annotated charts. In Extra you can save the annotations, in Basic you will have to take a screen shot and then upload that. Anyway above links provide some info on all of that.
Have fun I'm sure you will enjoy all the new features now available to you.
Quasi
Re: Heavy surf/ Be careful
That's scary, 2nd_ave. On Sunday my friends suggested that we go to the Montara State Beach (where the accident took place on Monday), but I decided to go to the neighboring Pacifica State Beach, which was a little closer. Forgetting about possible rip currents, I let my 3.5 old run in and out of the water by himself (running away from big waves), and then I myself went for a swim in the ocean (it was unusually warm). I am glad we didn't do it at the Montara beach... Now I'll make sure to check on the Web for rip currents at every new ocean beach we go to with children.
Re: Something to consider
Chickenpookie
Let me add this. Since you may not agree with Zero Hedge, then why not in this case just use the web site for the video link to watch Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading on Bloomberg TV. I believe you will find what he has to say very interesting. Especially from the 4:00 min mark on.
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Craig - I've succumbed to the advice of Slopers and exited my TBT long this morning. I took a small four-figure profit on the trade, but I recognize the danger of the H&S pattern and no longer have this position.
I'm seeing the TBT bounce off its lower trendline - in the same way that the TLT is bouncing off its upper trendline. The fact this is happening right as the RSI bottoms out at 30 tells me risks seem relatively low here. Of course I entered way too early (at around 53 if memory serves) but that's quite another matter.
http://tinyurl.com/ma8oth
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Nice chart Dave, check out the first one on this page...
http://www.slopeofhope.com/
Edit: I'm sure you will recognize the H&S on your own chart from this...
Beginning of the 2nd half of the year
There's a fairly well-established principle of the market that, just as a stock or commodity establishes an opening range in the first minutes to an hour or so of trading, so it is with market action overall in both January and July. First week? More? Less? If the principle has any validity, and if today is indeed acting like the beginning of the 2nd half, then the possibility of further dollar weakness, driving metals and stocks seems to have good potential.
Re: Something to consider
Joe Saluzzi said some memorable things when he wasn't being interupted and cut off;
"anything over 50 miliseconds, you're a dinosaur"
Theres a problem structurally in the equity markets no one wants to talk about..... "
"intervention..."
"manipulation.."
Gee, wish a guy like this would blog daily to give us dinosaurs (who have 9 feet in the grave) an insight to whats really going on.
Oh, yeah. Thats Bill.
Thanks Bill Cara
peace
Dangerousway
Still keeping an eye out for Vad's SWY short. It was fighting it this AM but one thing I have is time....
I find the talk of rip tides fascinating as this market breaks on the beach and tracks sideways....
On the beach?
http://www.thrasherswheat.org/tnfy/otb/otbcoverpic...
sold my KGC
Since I have declared the stock market for the next 10 years to be a "trader's market," I figured that selling KGC today would be appropriate as it had a very good one day move today and also the whole stock market has much more room on the downside than on the upside. So I just sold all my KGC (5% of my portfolio) at $19.64, which I had acquired at about $14.5 in mid-April when Bill had alerted us about this great stock. Placed a buy limit order at $18.5 for the shares I sold today.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
ATVI - numbers raised at to $16 at Friedman, Billings Ramsey. Estimates also raised, as new releases should drive growth in the second half of the year. Outperform rating.
CHRW - estimates raised at Morgan Stanley through 2011. Company seeing growth in higher margin businesses. Equal-weight rating.
DIS - estimates lowered at Barclays through 2010. Even though Orlando travel may be stabilizing, areas like ESPN advertising could still disappoint. Overweight rating and $32 price target.
INTC - estimates raised at Morgan Stanley. Expectations of higher revenue and gross margins led to the increase in numbers. Maintained Overweight rating and price target of $19.
MYGN - numbers reduced at UBS through 2010. Company warned of lower molecular diagnostic sales. Buy rating and new $40 price target.
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Craig,
Can you give some more information? I see inverse H&S for TBT and H&S for TLT on daily charts. You are seeing the reverse in a different time frame or what? Thinking of going long with TBT
Re: sold my KGC
David, appreciate your disciplined trading, KGC & other miners will probably re-test May highs but nothing goes up straightline, so u might collect them back at 18.50, i think.
I have to keep reminding myself to enter & exit trades with discipline :)
Retailers
75% of lower GICS 25 sector stocks are billion capitalizations. as of 1345 PM
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Shiva
I believe Craig was referring to this picture of TBT with the H&S. I take it this is what you were asking about?
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Sure, put up a 1 mo TBT chart, then look back at Tim Knight's page again.
His chart is 1 month and has the lines indicating the H&S.
I agree on Dave's trendlines but I also see the H&S both for TBT and the one forming for SPX on John Lee's page and in his commentary.
http://www.weeklyta.blogspot.com/
Edit: I'm also flexible so realize Hb&B can overpower a lot of nasty looking charts....for a bit.
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Yikes, fast on the 'draw' Bev!
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Bev, Craig - thx. I see what you meant now. Its a conundrum, if interest rates are to be kept low(Fed's policy), TBT has to go down. But with all the printing, TBT has to go up Long Term.
Will watch the reaction of TBT at 54 and see if the pattern holds
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Craig [a.k.a UNG Slayer]
Thought I would ease the load on one of our more successful traders.
weak banks
Notice how weak the bank stocks are now (and have been lately), after the money has rotated from that sector (after stellar gains in March-May). In the past, when Dow was up 1%, SKF would be down by 5% or even 10%. Now SKF is down only 0.5%. I think SKF has definitely bottomed out in the low 40's, and now we just need to wait until it starts zooming up. I have about 5% of my portfolio in SKF.
For what it is worth
1 min VIX. Need to close in the orange zone for a sell signal. I do not think we will get it. I still believe we will see a sell off after the 6th, if we do indeed see one at all. IMO of course.
http://tinyurl.com/lfnxkv
Re: Correct Bill
Berlusconi? I don't get the link.
As I stated, I was no fan of Clinton, a great mind wasted on "third way" sell outs. While deserving of much of the criticism as you point out, don't be deluded into thinking a democrat governor was privy to top tier CIA operations initiated under a republican administration.
Even if they did occur in his home state.
And yes, we should care what people think of our country. We are all in this little lifeboat called planet Earth together.
Ciao, Z
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Shiva,
Keep in mind if we do correct that TBT will correct as well and TLT will be a flight to safety destination.
I don't know Bev, I've been treading water lately....I did take my que from UNG @ 14 today and did alright with a RIMM trade and am now largely standing aside.
I'm far more patient doing nothing than I have been previously. I guess that's good! I'm learning from my mistakes.
Re: Tim Knight latest...
I wouldn't read too much into TBT's chart. Better to look at the underlyings isn't it? And they're telling me the easy money has been made in TBT:
http://tinyurl.com/m5y99x
Now TBT/TLT are probably only useful for short and sweet trades OR TOG. Given the fact that TBT is short and leveraged, and I don't know when TOG is coming, I'm unsure about the wisdom of holding it for that purpose alone.
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Here are three scenarios for TBT:
* market does not correct. green shoots. TBT will rise.
* market corrects, driven by a foreign government running for the exit in treasuries. TBT will rise.
* market corrects "normally". TBT will drop.
Just a thought. Sometimes things don't act the way we think they should. Like gold being thrown under the bus during the 08 crash.
Re: Tim Knight latest...
* market meanders sideways for a few quarters. TBT will drop like all 2x inverse etfs.
* market corrects hard, driven by a lack of greens shoots. US retains safe-haven status. TBT falls uber-hard.
Audit the Fed Update
Nice to see this in mainstream media...even if it was prominently displayed on their site for just a short time last night while most of the country was asleep. Perhaps its finally gaining enough momentum that Barney Frank can't stonewall it?
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/24/mr-popu...
Re: Tim Knight latest...
davefairtex
"Like gold being thrown under the bus during the 08 crash."
My take on that was, there were a lot of margin calls during that time and everything was on the sell block. Also there a lot of Hedge Funds were getting redemption calls and they were heavily weighted into PM I bet.
Re: Something to consider
Bev - I'm simply saying from my perspective, ZH consistently represents one side of the argument without much consideration for objective analysis of positive aspects. I wonder if they don't run the risk of compromising their journalistic integrity in much the same way green-shoots media have. Could ZH be an arm of GS in disguise?
All extremists must be shot!
Re: Something to consider
Chickenpookie
OK... I understand your point now. Thanks.
Re: Tim Knight latest...
TBT/TLT I'm just looking at in the classic sense, equities fall, treasuries tend get stronger as a safe haven for cash. I'm not trying to over think it.
I'm sure there are nuances, but I'm not that quick.
I would welcome another shot at TBT at 35.50 again though....:>)
Re: Tim Knight latest...
Mackinaw - the hard correction driven by lack of green shoots is the same scenario I was referring to. I'm presupposing a hard correction I guess. At that point, it pays to have stops. :)
Cardiome - crme - if you like risk/reward......
...
FXC
Just went long @ 86.92. The positives are gap up on increasing volume, break above 7 dma, sitting on 50 dma, above 200 dma and 89 dma is attempting to cross 200 dma. Nice Fibonacci retracement of 3.82 off 92.53 high vs 76.75 low.
Was looking at this yesterday.
Gann 12 & 24 Trading Rules
The 12 rules:-
1. Determine the trend
2. Buy at single, double and triple bottoms
3. Buy and sell on percentages
4. Buy and sell on 3 weeks' advance or decline
5. Market moves in sections/waves
6. Buy or sell on 5 to 7 point moves
7. Study volume to determine change in trend
8. Study time factor and time periods to determine change in trend. (p.s. when a time period on a decline exceeds that of a previous decline, it indicates a change in trend)
9. Buy on higher tops and bottoms
10. A change in trend often occurs just before or after holidays. (p.s. when prices are at high levels there are usually several swings up and down, then when the market breaks the low of the last swing it indicates a reversal and change in trend)
11. Buy on a second reaction at a higher bottom. When it reacts only 2 days, it is in a very strong position.
12. Price gains in fast moves do not last very long.
The 24 rules:-
1. Never risk one tenth of capital in one trade.
2. Always use stop loss orders.
3. Never overtrade.
4. Never let a profit run into a loss.
5. Do not buck the trend.
6. When in doubt, get our or don’t get in.
7. Trade only active stocks.
8. Equal distribution of risk in 4 or 5 stocks.
9. Trade market order.
10. Don’t close your trades without a good reason.
11. Accumulate a surplus
12. Never buy just to get a dividend.
13. Never average a loss.
14. Never get out/in of the market because of impatience or anxiety.
15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you placed it.
17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
18. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
19. Never buy/sell just because the price is low/high.
20. Wait till the stock is very active and has crossed resistance levels before pyramiding.
21. Select stocks with small volume of shares outstanding to pyramid on the buying side.
22. Never hedge one stock by another.
23. Trade with a plan and do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.
24. Avoid increasing trading size after a long period of success
Re: More on Madoff
ALOHA !!
150 years ...
Not many of you know this but if an inmate works one day then he gets a day off his sentence, plus he gets paid 40 cents per hour(more than a Vietnamese factory worker)!! That is a fact! So if Bernie works he can cut his prison sentence down to 75 years and with good behavior and handling the Wardens 401k and his 1040s he'll be out in five years and back at his "wife's" penthouse!
When I first moved to San Francisco I worked as an estimator for a contractor who bragged that he was a millionaire three times in his life and each time he filed bankruptcy. Prior to filing BK he would put all his holdings in cousins names and move all his most prized and valuable possessions out to a secluded ranch out in Vacaville, CA and hide it all in 40ft storage containers. Do the rich destroy evidence and hide their wealth prior to filing BK and going to jail? Of course they do ...
Justice American style ... HA!!
su
oh man, su is diving, better get out the bob brinker 7.1.09 news letter!
:0
Re: More on Madoff
ALOHA Kaimu!
I worked for a guy that immediately after BK was driving a Rolls and started a business. Bernie giving watches and cash to relatives is small time....
He was transferring way more than Rolex's.
I suspect even you would be happy with a few billion FRN's....LOL!
Re: su
vanillabean - I see a sell signal was generated yesterday: :0 0:
www.americanbulls.com
Any winners in this market?
Is anyone out there doing well? Any tips for the rest of us?
Re: Any winners in this market?
It's tough right now, take profit quickly! The moves are small and it seems like we're headed down(UP).
Re: For those who subscribe to Stock Charts - a question
Very good Bev . Thank you . Bob.
Re: Any winners in this market?
Goto post 35157, there are 36 tips.
Re: Any winners in this market?
36 Very good tips, BTW...
Re: Any winners in this market?
The only winning trades I have had since mid May have been on the short side. I have repeatedly shorted one particular stock for small gains, usually intra day. That would be PSS, or Payless Shoe Source, now known as Collective Brands. I chose it largely on fundamentals including high debt and losing money. A price in the low teens and volatility also helped.
Re: Any winners in this market?
My only true winners have been RIMM, buying around $69/selling above $71, TCK in the low to mid $15's and selling above $17, and a few pennies today on UNG from $13.60/13.72 to $14, but subtract my stop loss from yesterday and it's about even.
If you were fast on the button you made some $$$ on a couple of Vad's plays from this AM but you had to be fast as they jumped up and reversed quickly.
Dangerousway never did come to me as a short...yet.
More of the same sideways rip tide action....ride the wave in, get out and towel off, or you get pulled back in and someone has to call the lifeguard. Yawn.
Re: Any winners in this market?
I forgot, I made some lunch money (a decent lunch with drinks for a couple people) on F and PDS. That's about it.
Re: sold my KGC
I just came back from a free noon chamber music concert at Stanford (those who live in the area should definitely check them out!) and saw that the downtrend that started right when I sold my KGC persisted for the rest of the session. It feels like the market has very little strength left to move higher, and every attempt to lift prices is met with some serious "distribution." So instead of trying to re-load at $18.50 the KGC shares I sold at today $19.64, I think I'll just wait for KGC to drop below $19 and then sell $19 puts on it, which should give me an effective purchase price of $18, or I may even wait until KGC hits $18 and then sell the $18 puts on it (probably August) so as to get an effective purchase price of $17.
preparing to sell some UXG
I was reluctant to sell even a little of my UXG despite the recent run-up in prices because I thought that all of my shares were accumulated at higher prices, vaguely recalling that I bought 2000 shares at around $3.20, and then thinking that all the shares that I bought below $3.20 I already sold with some profit (I was determined to buy UXG on the way down in small bunches and then only sell each bunch of shares with profit). I have just remembered, however, that in mid-March I bought 3500 more shares at $1.75 (once again thanks to Bill's note about UXG sitting on some great discoveries), which was a lateral move I made after selling my SLW at $6 (I also moved some proceeds from the SLW sale into SLV at $12.10).
So now, given the huge run-up in the broad market since March, given its apparent market weakness in the last couple of weeks, given the head-and-shoulders pattern for S&P, I think it is wise to place a sell stop limit order (stop at $2.67, limit $2.60) for 2000 shares of my UXG out of the 3500 shares I purchased in March at $1.75. As for the remaining 1500 shares, I decided to place a limit order at $2.90, so as to trap a potential last-stage explosion that the recent price run-up can culminate in.
Re: Any winners in this market?
T3d- Reminds me of the time a girl who was sitting next to me in the back of a lecture hall turned to me and asked, "So, what's the secret?" (I honestly can't recall what, if anything, I had done to warrant being asked). I smiled and responded with the first thing that came to mind- "Study hard." Which got a hearty laugh. Because we all know there's no secret.
I've noticed Gann mentioned quite a bit recently. I googled Gann 12 and 24 and got an eyeful. I'm going to spend my down time looking into some of it, thanks.
Re: su
thanks cp for the site. I noticed there are tutorials for candlestick reading!
david, thanks for the heads up on stanford concert. I should check it out since I am about 5 min away and should take a break! (working 3 jobs)
2nd, I feel all beat up today. I risk 20,000 to make 300.00. ? crazy.
Perhaps this is why people are rebirthing themselves over at the 2ndlife site. Hey Mark, you can buy land and then build on it and sell it later for a profit. wild concept. I was on the site last night and I saw these virtual people on their island just working away (at something) not sure what but looked like they might be building something.
vb
Re: Stanford music concerts
vanillabean (and whoever else is interested): I suggest you sign up for the e-mailing list:
music-listings@lists.stanford.edu
to get weekly announcements of various free and inexpensive ($5 to $10) music concerts at Stanford.
Re: Any winners in this market?
2nd, I have never googled Gann 12 an 24, but when I did I found this 45 years in Wall Street by W.D. Gann. I think it is the whole book free.
http://books.google.com/books?id=is2acP3Lm7EC&dq=w...
I take it back, it is just parts of the book, but seems to cover and explain many of the rules. It's a tease.
Re: sold my KGC
David-
On the other hand, what makes you tick IS a mystery. Not saying I can't occasionally tune out the market while holding volatile positions, but I can't do it day after day the way you seem to. I can imagine you in twenty years, a touch of gray around the temples/leaning back in your Stanford digs, advising (yet another) concerned colleague to finish his/her cognac while you calmly explain how to dig him/herself out of a hole ;)
Re: su
"2nd, I feel all beat up today. I risk 20,000 to make 300.00. ? crazy."
You need to set up an appointment with David ;)
SLW
SLW is starting to look good to me here, it's sitting on the bottom of it's trend line from what I see... I'm thinking it might easily go to around $10 soon.
Top 1000 Banks
"The Banker" magazine came out with their annual Top 1000 banks lists.
http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/67...
There's also a video at the end of the article where they discuss the results.
It's all gibberish to me :), or at least extremely dull, on this Canada Day.
Re: Any winners in this market?
T3d- Yes, it's just a 29-page preview, but there's enough in those 29 pages to get me going. It's a riveting read (just scanning through it), sort of like sitting in Professor Gann's classroom listening to him hold forth on the secrets of the universe.
Thanks for the link.
High Yield Bond Funds - Is this the Opposite of the TOG?
I just checked my fiance's IRA portfolio and see that the majority of her IRA is across several high yield bond funds. I want to guide her and just want to make sure that the underlying theme of the TOG is to sell bonds and buy gold. In other words, should I guide her out of these funds and into foreign equities or PM's? Any advice would be appreciated. TIA
Re: Top 1000 Banks
Shows you how little I know about banking. I thought you typed one too many zeroes, and listing the top 1000 banks would be like listing the top 100 NFL teams.
Re: High Yield Bond Funds - Is this the Opposite of the TOG?
If her Financial Advisor put her into those, say, anytime between mid Oct '08 - mid Apr '09, that's one smart cookie and she should probably continue to listen to their advice. On the other hand, if she's not getting any professional advice, she may want to look into finding some.
Gann
How about this, Bev?
"Safest Selling Point. After a market has advanced for a long time and made Final High and has the First Sharp quick Decline, then rallies and makes the Second Lower Top, and from this Top declines and Breaks the Low point of the First Decline, it is then Safer to Sell because it has given the Signal that the main Trend has changed to the Down side."
I even like the guy's use of Capitalized words to Good Effect.
Today'a blog
Just finished reading today's blog after work. Great posts everyone. It really helps me as I am gone most of the day.
OK VB!! I look at it this weekend.
Obviously I let go of KGC/AUY a little early, but that's OK. I'm sticking to my plan as it has worked well for the past month. Not big gains, but green trades none the less. AND it is a good learning experience for me.
ChrisM- I have not forgotten about HEK...just busy and as this is a long term trade I'm working on the details of my answer. Thanks for your patience.
I hope to have my IOU vouchers back from the printer tomorrow. Just being prudent.
Re: Gann
Solid Advice! lol
If only a few people had followed that here:
http://tinyurl.com/kwyh9v (S&P 500)
They would have bailed in the 2nd week of Jan 2008. That's when I did (remember that rogue French-Trader scare?).
Of course the 50MA/200MA cross-over would have got you out a little earlier (by a week or two)
Thing is... we have NOT been advancing for a long time where we are now. But in Jan 2008 we had been - for 4+ years!
Re: Any winners in this market?
Reached my soft sell points this morning, so dumped everything and took my profit and ran. After hours, bought back a few after hours at lower prices than I sold them earlier for...I do love feasting after hours!
Bought: UWM, TBT, UYM, SMH, and QLD
I probably should not have sold everything, but was uncomfortably long and when you see a 5 digit profit on your screen for the day's work...LOL
Wish everyone a great 4th weekend! Let's never forget why it is a holiday!
God Bless Our Troops!
MK
Gann 2
"Taking heavy risks in the beginning [or anytime, IMO] endangers your capital and impairs your judgment. Trade in such a way that you will not be disturbed by a loss, if it comes."
What can I say? Trading is probably 90% mental.
Re: High Yield Bond Funds - Is this the Opposite of the TOG?
Ghopper,
Most portfolio analysts I have read allocate only a small percentage of the bond portfolio to the High Yield. It is higher risk among bonds.
As to how to allocate the majority of funds now, nothing is safe. Except cash, to a point. PM's or miners are another component of a longer term portfolio.
Re: Any winners in this market?
MK- Is it the Red Bull or the sharp claws that helps you trade faster ;)
Re: Gann 2
"What can I say? Trading is probably 90% mental.
Reply"
I thought it was 90% allocation and 10% mental? :P
Re: Gann 2
I think selecting/sticking to your allocation might be 90% mental.
Re: Any winners in this market?
it's kind of hard this week..
most chart has ma50 ma200 and the price converged at one single point...
Re: Gann
MAC- LOL my friend...That's exactly the time I STARTED trading my own account! It's been a tough ride, but with Bill's great guidance and the countless others here that post, I've made it out the other side. Nothing better than being thrown right into the hopper, no?
Re: Gann
Forged in the Furnace! As Vadym said once: If you can trade well through this, a cyclical Bull will be a cakewalk. (paraphrasing)
Re: Any winners in this market?
it's kind of hard this week..
most chart has ma50 ma200 and the price converged at one single point...
Re: Gann
What I'm amazed by is the speed with which some markets have recovered from this mess. Take a peek at FXI, INP, EWZ.
China, India, and Brazil have all, basically, recovered to the BEAR STEARN'S point in time! (March '08; not so much Brazil) That seems all too fast and has me a bit edgy because I am 15% emerging markets right now.
Gann 3
"..failing to place a stop loss order and overtrading have been the cause of over 90 per cent of the failures in Wall Street. Therefore, in order to make a success he must act in a way to overcome the weak points which have caused the ruin of others."
He also notes that 10% of the time a stop loss will take you out at the bottom (ie, market makers will take the market down and catch your stop loss before allowing prices to reverse). You are, however, compensated for this the nine times out of ten a stop loss saves your --s.
Re: Diane Francis, Madoff
Another recent article by Diane Francis on Obama's new financial regulations:
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/a...
Gann 3 reply
"You are, however, compensated for this the nine times out of ten a stop loss saves your $$s."
I wonder what that really means? Does that mean that 9 times out of 10 that a stop-loss was triggered the asset went to zero? or never recovered, ever? Hmmm.
I know, for a fact, that at least 75% of my stop-losses that got hit in Oct/Nov have in fact recovered - some WAY higher.
edit: I don't know that for a fact - I'm going to go check now. It just feels like that.
edit: yep, it's actually more than 75%.
Obviously, there is more to Gann than 12 and 24
However, I would encourage incorporating any/all of the disparate rules/recommendations you are able to appreciate at any point in your developement as a trader. Oftentimes (actually, most times), we need not understand why before we act in accordance with commonly accepted rules.
I plan to immediately incorporate the three that strike a chord with me this evening-
(a) Go with the trend, which also means first waiting for a trend to clearly reveal itself.
(b) Set a stop loss. I suppose it's like strapping in before starting the engine, installing smoke detectors, buying hazard insurance, or anything else that protects us from ourselves.
(c) Keep position sizes manageable. Gann suggests a limit of 10% of capital. I use 6%, but of course I have gone as high as 3-4x that.
Gann 4: Trend reversals around holidays?
"A change in trend often occurs just before or just after holidays."
Interesting that July 4 is flagged as an important date.
Re: Obviously, there is more to Gann than 12 and 24
"(c) Keep position sizes manageable. Gann suggests a limit of 10% of capital. I use 6%, but of course I have gone as high as 3-4x that."
Dynamic position size calculator I use:
http://oak.ucc.nau.edu/del/stockcalcs/sizer.aspx
Re: Obviously, there is more to Gann than 12 and 24
Mac- Very nice, thanks.
Re: Obviously, there is more to Gann than 12 and 24
2nd-"(c) Keep position sizes manageable. Gann suggests a limit of 10% of capital. I use 6%, but of course I have gone as high as 3-4x that."
Interesting...That's what I have done on intuition I guess. Still working through the stop loss though. My best trades ( I think) have been averaging down in wide scale. It seems the best moves come off the bottom. Perhaps that's my inability to spot a trend change and instead feel like I'm chasing.
For now sticking with the "kick them in the shin and run like hell" approach.
Re: Gann 3 reply
If you are moving your stops up as price rises, then that would explain the 9 times out of ten it saves your a$$, it locks in your profits. There's going to be a few times that the stop loss kicks in before the price rises enough to cover costs, but the profits from the other nine should overcome the one loss.
Re: Obviously, there is more to Gann than 12 and 24
Mark- LOL. I know you're 6'5", but when you're outnumbered and they have weapons, you can't beat running like hell. Being a hero isn't much fun when you're dead, right?
Re: Obviously, there is more to Gann than 12 and 24
2nd- Only weapons I have are my friends here...I'll take that any day. And no, the first thing you learn as a Firefighter is a dead hero becomes a liability to your team.
Re: Any winners in this market?
"MK- Is it the Red Bull or the sharp claws that helps you trade faster ;)"
Actually it is fear of having to tell my loving wife I missed a profit opportunity. LOL
MK
Wonderful Tonight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qneh8eJTcas
For all the beautiful wives/girlfriends out there.
Zobies on the move abroad..
The new Prime minister of finance for Japan went to college @...HARVARD. God, their everywhere. How much you want to bet he interned @ GS?
Re: Obviously, there is more to Gann than 12 and 24
For common sense methods for doing all of these things I highly recommend Dave Landry's web site, once a week "the week in Charts" and his daily e-mail, "market in a minute", all free. His site has lots of info on entries, setting stops, moving them up and how to really see and stay with trends. He is known as a "swing trader" and has a couple books on chart patterns and swing trading, but his idea is to get into a trade and stay with it as long as the trend lasts, which could be years (in normal markets).
That's why I'm hoping for a trend....some day....
California Scrip
2nd, Mark: Have you heard if the governators new scrip are convertible for US treasuries?
HOLY CRAPOLA!
ALOHA !!
Man ... someone at the US TREASURY hammered the inflation button on Tuesday, June 30th, the last day of the month!!!
On Monday, June 29, 2009 the US PUBLIC DEBT was at $11.29TRIL USD and then in one days time it ballooned to $11.48TRIL USD ... that's a $190BIL USD increase in 24 hours! UNREAL-L-L-L!!! That in no way can be perceived and played off as "deflationary"! It matters not what the stock market did or real estate prices ... that's THE DEBT! Another $600BIL more and the ceiling will need to be raised again ...
This DEBT will never be "paid off", because as any credit card holder knows you can never pay off your debt by just paying the "minimum due". According to the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT we only pay the "minimum" interest due. If we were paying off the PUBLIC DEBT then government would be shrinking and so would the DEBT, but instead the opposite is happening.
The total mismanagement and treasonous "taxation without representation" is just plain EVIL ... This is the stuff you expect from tin-horn Fifth World dictators. As I have said many times a CHIMP with a "dartboard of decisions" could do just as good a job governing America as the two party aristocracy of BUSH and OBAMA! Chances are the CHIMP would completely miss the dartboard 70% of the time! Plus, we only need to feed the CHIMP bananas ...
Man, such amazing CHANGE I have never seen before ... Hummmmm ... MORE DEBT ... BIGGER GOVERNMENT ... GIVE BANKS ALL OUR MONEY ... CRUSH PROFITS ... GO BROKE ... that's radical dude!
UNREAL-L-L-L!!!
Re: California Scrip
CP- Sorry, man...I tried to find the link, but you CAN trade a $10.00 CA. IOU for any kids "Happy Meal" at MCD. I'm going to hold tight for a #3 value meal.(small)
Want to here something scary? I have subs that are going to receive this "paper" soon.
meeting with Northern Star Mining (NSM.V)
I met recently with Jonathan Awde, Corporate Finance VP of Northern Star Mining, which is moving towards production in the Val d’Or camp of Quebec. Their Malartic property is within just a few kms. Of Osisko, and AEM’s Laronde, Lapa and Goldex mines (virtually all of AEM’s current production).
Malartic has two shafts, which historically yielded 2M oz. of gold. NSM has been drilling from their decline, and reports having discovered 2 significant gold zones from 700 ft. down. NSM also claims lower-grade porphryr's like Osisko's which will be drilled later this year.
A new 43-101 compliant resource calculation is due in Q1/10. NSM plans to begin production anew this September.(Kaimu will likely appreciate this "Australian-type" inclination to produce now and issue detailed studies later!)
NSM has purchased a used mill from a previous nearby operator, has $11M in the bank, and is due a rebate of $6M from the Quebec gov’t. They have contracted with Quebec-based Dumas, said to be the world’s 2nd largest contract miner. 2/3 of Dumas was recently purchased by Pala, a Swiss fund affiliated with Russian capital.
Awde believes they will need an additional $15M over the next two years to get to full production (estimated at 200K oz/yr) and would like to raise an additional $10M for exploration of their properties. These are small capital requirements for opening a mine. NSM is expecting a small private placement with Dumas, and that (if initial production goes well) capital will be available from the Pala fund and others.
Mr. Awde seemed an effective advocate for his company. After leaving our meeting, he visited a number of other cities, including London. I must not have been the only person who was impressed. In the interim, NSM’s share price has steadily risen a total of 46% in 1 month.
Disclosure: no position
Caveat: trading volume is low
Re: California Scrip
ALOHA !!
So the tenth largest global economy ... CALIFORNIA ... is broke and handing out IOUs and so is the US government. They're called FRNs ...
So now you want to convert California IOUs for US IOUs? HA!! Maybe we can BUNDLE them and sell them to CHINA! All it needs is a AAA ... Foreign idiots will buy any paper with a AAA ... That's right Chinese students I'm laughing at you! HA!!
California Scrip
Imagine what the IRS would do to me if I gave them an IOU!
China and USD, conflicting reports
Link 1 states china is worried and wants diversification to be discussed/
http://tinyurl.com/n3nbhy
Link 2 states everything is peachy for usd.
http://tinyurl.com/lojsxz
I should email each article to the other reporter. Let them duke it out.
Re: California Scrip
We could call them Fool's-gold certificates, fresh from Sackatomatoes (Hope they're not rotten!).
http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/1991386.htm...
Re: Gann
RE:>Safest Selling Point. After a market has advanced for a long time and made Final High and has the First Sharp quick Decline, then rallies and makes the Second Lower Top...
2nd, Check out the last chart on this page. Guy walked away from the market in May 2008 based on trend analysis. Smart move. Same as what Gann's talking about.
http://education.wallstreetsurvivor.com/identify-t...
If I remember correctly, there's something of the Dow Theory in such trend analysis as well - measuring the djia and djta for higher highs and lower lows. Both must be in trend or some such thing to pronounce a bull or bear market.
My first annotated chart - spx.
http://tinyurl.com/my-1st-chart
With some basic newfound skills there is some telling features of the mini-me rally we're in.
Note the ROC (momentum) negative divergence with the rally as it began. (see link in above post on trend reversals), negative MACD divergence, decreasing RSI and reduced volume as the June high was made.
Stock Charts has something to say about bearish MACD signals.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_sc...
940 seems like the number to beat. It was a previous resistance point around New Years as the world was turning to %ç*" (I do not remember this point as I was soaking up decent quantities of booze and sunshine in Sydney at the time)
I threw in lots of moving averages and came up with a spaghetti western right where we are now. What a mess. By coincidence John Lee produced the same chart this morning and to him, it is explanatory of the behaviour in the market right now. Thank you JL.
I understand why the guy is sitting on the fence at the moment. So many bearish signals even as the market was making new highs seems reason enough to walk away.
This is why I paid for Stockcharts membership. That chart has been stored, will be updated automatically, and I can monitor progression for learning. Now I wanna take all of MK's tickers and store them for daily scanning. I have a small idea now what to look for in a buy and sell signal.
If I've stuffed up, please tell me so. What doesn't kill me will make me stronger :P
JMTCW
Re: meeting with Northern Star Mining (NSM.V)
ALOHA !!
jock ... Yep ... gotta love the Aussie production now model!!!
With production well funded ... delist ... go private and hand out gold dividends to shareholders. Forget the treacherous exchanges with the likes of Canaccord and Sprott!
When does MicroSoft start selling VISTA forward?
NSM... thanks ...
GROUND REPORT
ALOHA !!
I had to drive into HILO to the FEDEX station today so I called up CASEY ... Mr. Tao ... We met up at a small lunch place by the Bay for smoothies. It was a pleasure to make his acquaintance. As serene as his posts ... I am always impressed with the Caraistas I meet. I look forward to our next visit ...
Every day I drive into town it seems the price of gas goes up! A week ago it was $3.04 and now I saw it at $3.31USD per gallon.
I had to laugh as I bought some honey root beer today at the local Island Natural, health food store. It used to come in a bigger bottle, 16oz, now still the same price only 12 oz bottle. How does the CPI capture that data? I think Ben would say, "The honey root beer inflation index HRBI is under control and shows no signs of elevating and if anything will moderate in the medium term." But where's my other four ounces Ben?
The only free thing I did today was go to my CPA and get some legal docs notarized. My CPA also runs a real estate biz and was telling me the price of houses on the Big Island have been rising over the past month. I jokingly told him maybe Inouye phoned a price rise in!
I was also at Home Depot picking up some 1x3 and 1x4 trim ... I also had to buy a couple exterior light fixtures. No noticeable price declines there!
Went to Office Max and bought a fax film roll, box of two, Panasonic FA55, nearly $40.00USD. Price has gone up over 25% in six months time. Works out to be 50% annual! Printer cartridges can break you! They cost more than the printer! May as well auction those off at Sotheby's!
Food here ... Forget it! May as well auction it at Sotheby's as well!
Electric bill $239 for June ... Not going down!
HMSA(health insurance)no way ... ALWAYS UP!!
So the basics like food, water, medicine, gas, office supplies and shelter ... UP ... UP ... UP! So that's deflation?
Hummmmmmm????
FDR EX O
ALOHA !!
Anyone here have any idea how many "Executive Orders" FDR issued when he was President? The total was 3,728 ...
FDR XO LINK: http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/executive...
Clinton issued 364 ... Bush #1 issued 166 ... Bush #2 issued 284 ... Reagan issued 381 ... Carter 320 ... Nixon 346 ... LBJ 324 ... JFK 214 ...
By far FDR went totally looney tunes on Executive Orders! FDR issued ten times as many Executive Orders than any other President. If he did one per day then that is 10.2 years worth! Most of them are age and environment related, plus a couple gold ones ...
Obama has done ten so far. I think Executive Order should be eliminated. Go read some of Obama's and FDR's ... They are part of the "long train of abuses" ...
IT IS ...
Re: Gann
Les- I enjoyed the tutorial, thanks.
Re: High Yield Bond Funds - Is this the Opposite of the TOG?
I agree with Mackinaw 100% — for the time frame a good place to be. I've been trading bonds, mostly Treasuries for about the last 15 years. For 30+ years before I was all in stocks.
I think it's safe to assume you are both quite young, so first I would say that now, more than ever, there are no "safe" places for the long haul, forget any "buy and hold" advice and evaluate he risk/reward ratio for any investments. Don't be afraid to go to cash when in doubt.
If possible hedge your investment (essentially a way of saying balance and protect it). If in stocks or ETFs use stops (automatic exit). If in mutual funds don't depend too heavily on ratings such as Morningstar (their stars cover a long range and a lot can happen before they are re-rated).
I understand 401(k) plans may not allow many choices, but this year a switch to Roth IRAs is allowed and the best place for a long haul.
I think Ben Franklin's advice is key, "A penny saved is a penny earned." Protecting what you have is as important as earning more — loss is to be avoided.
Also, nobody cares about YOUR money like you do. Even the best intentioned advice (including mine) can be wrong — learn to think and decide for yourself.
Best wishes to you both.
Edit: I should mention nobody makes all the right decisions, so avoid the temptation to "bet the farm" on any single investment. Live to fight another day.
Re: California Scrip
"Imagine what the IRS would do to me if I gave them an IOU!"
Just cal it an "honest mistake" — worked for Timmy the Treasurer.
Re: California Scrip
Or use movie money from Holy-wood.
Re: GROUND REPORT
"I had to laugh as I bought some honey root beer today at the local Island Natural, health food store. It used to come in a bigger bottle, 16oz, now still the same price only 12 oz bottle. How does the CPI capture that data?"
A good example of a reverse split. Like AIG it's a good thing. Right?
Re: Diane Francis, Madoff
Dave M
Re the Francis column you linked:
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/a...
The comments from her readers were more interesting, I think. A lot of food for thought there.
Re: Diane Francis, Madoff
Bill,
I agree - there were some insightful comments from her readers. I found the ones by Tom I on the Federal Reserve particularly relevant:
"Only the Federal Reserve (who is neither federal nor does it has any reserve of hard value) has unlimited financial and economic powers. It is not even required by law to be accountable to anyone including the Congress. Nobody can look at its books, participate in its decision process, nor challenge any of its decisions. What it decides are absolute, requiring no approval by anybody else."
------------------
Submitted by Bill Cara (660 comments) on Thu, 07/02/2009 - 08:15 #35232
Dave M
Re the Francis column you linked:
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/a...
The comments from her readers were more interesting, I think. A lot of food for thought there.
Keep an eye out for Acorda ( ACOR )..... after its deal with
Biogen, its being taken down pretty hard (folks had wanted a buy-out)... Oct. 22 ( or earlier ) is FDA decision for U.S. approval... Trend line could possibly take this one to the $ 19.70 range ( maybe sticks at $ 21 )... imho, it could race back to $ 28.00 range over 3 week period if $ 20-ish is hit....