[12:15am ET] Every day in these pages I speak of cycles. Thirty years ago, I learned from my mentor Ian Notley that equity prices are materially affected by the laws of nature. Out of respect, I often quote Ecclesiastes 3.
http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes+3&version=KJV
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nature
So I was surprised today when I was asked by a teacher “Could you comment on this for my students and me regarding seasonal investing?”
Immediately I turned to Stock Trader’s Almanac 2009 for suitable quotes about seasonality.
There on the front cover is a quote from William J. O’Neil, Chairman and founder, Investors Business Daily: “Historical price patterns continue to work because human nature doesn’t change, …”
The Almanac editors Jeffery A. Hirsch and Yale Hirsh have published the encyclopedia on seasonality trends since 1968. No one does it better. Here are some quotes from this year’s Almanac:
We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns result too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain since 1950 practically all the gains in the market were made during November through April compared to almost nothing May through October?
October:
• Known as the jinx month because of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop in October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979 and Friday the 13th in 1989.
• Yet “October is a “bear killer” and turned the tide in 11 post-WWII bear markets: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001 and 2002.
• First October Dow top in 2007, 20-year 1097 Crash anniversary -2.6%.
• Worst six-months of the year ends with October.
• Best DOW, S&P and NASDAQ month last 15 years.
• October is a great time to buy.
• Big October gains five years 1999-2003 after atrocious Septembers.
November:
• #1 S&P month and #3 on Dow since 1950, #2 on NASDAQ since 1971.
• Start of the “Best Six Months” of the year, NASDAQ’s Eight Months and Best Three.
• Day before and after Thanksgiving Day combined, only 11 losses in 56 years.
• Week before Thanksgiving Dow up 15 of last 15.
• Dow down only 3 Novembers last 14 post-election years, S&P down 4.
November, December, and January Year’s Best Three Month Span
A Merrill Lynch study (1968) showed that buying seven industry groups and sectors around September or October and selling in the first few months of 1954-1964 tripled the gains of holding them for 10 years. The Almanac extended this study to create the Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar.
Sector Seasonality: Selected Percentage Plays as listed by the Almanac
BKX Banking -- October through June
http://tinyurl.com/28s3gk
XBD Broker-Dealer -- October through April
http://tinyurl.com/yk7tnrp
XCI Computer Tech – October through January
http://tinyurl.com/yf3j3cf
CYC Cyclical – October through May
http://tinyurl.com/ygqv6vl
RXH Healthcare Providers – October through January
http://tinyurl.com/yjkm8vv
XLB Materials – October through May
http://tinyurl.com/28s3gk
RMZ Real Estate Investment Trusts – October through July
http://tinyurl.com/yjxzffx
SOX – Semiconductor – October through December
http://tinyurl.com/ylz3qjc
TRAN – Transports – October through May
http://tinyurl.com/2wbj8f
Although it may not be the latest year’s version, many public libraries carry the Stock Trader’s Almanac. For a holiday gift, it’s a good one.
Stock Trader’s Almanac 2009 (Wiley)
http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Traders-Almanac-2009-Investor/dp/0470229020/...
Seasonality patterns in the stock market are not like clockwork. Most cycles are not precise like say a lunar cycle. They are more like Punxsutawney Phil, who may or may not see his shadow on February 2, or a woman’s period, which may be early, late or missing, but clearly cyclical.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punxsutawney_Phil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menstrual_cycle
There have been stock market timing systems built around cycles, including one of the most popular, which is this week’s Halloween Indicator, better known by the saying “Sell in May and go away” – until Halloween.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_cycles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween_indicator
Seasonality is an interesting subject, but one that lacks the imprecision most traders require as an important basis of trading real money. The concept is often taken a bit too far. Ian Notley once told his students about the analyst who opined the best time to buy a beer stock was before the summer. Then he held up charts of two beer stocks that had similar price patterns. But, he said, the one was Budweiser and the other Fosters, and while it might be spring in the US, it’s fall in Australia.
In the big picture, though, a student of the market should take the time to understand these concepts. There are often very good reasons why certain industry groups are favored in the market during certain times of the year.
Comments
Boatload O' Charts
Haven't posted a Boatload O' Charts in a while, be advised that my posting of a Boatload could be a contra-indicator of bearishness in market action. Watch out....Humoungous Bank and Broker and the great bald evil one still got game, and printing presses. But from what I can tell, I think they pretty much shot all the current bullets currently authorized to them. Some 1.5B of your tax money to "pimp da market" is pretty much used up....but because after all, market moves up prove economic success (j/k).
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/its-been-l...
In erratic countries like Venezuela
Hi Jock - Still keep a position in KRY, but having known Belanger & associates in the past I never could bring myself to take up the GRZ position. I guess the vulture - RML may benefit, but with Chavez's erratic treatment of the rule of law (much like the current U.S. regime as you noted) I doubt any endeavor in Venezuela will flourish until real political change evolves. I am looking forward to regime change there and here in the U.S. - as are many now that we all fully understand the "Hope & Change" mantra. Happy Trading
Can't say I'm wise enuf to know what part of October we are in
but I have to vote for a crash starting at todays open.
FYI, my panics have predicted 100 of the last 5 crashes, LOL.
PS: I'm happy to say I have very little position in this pathetic market at the moment. And I trust the U.S. dollar EVEN LESS! LOL, the counterfeiters are running the Fed and Treasury.
Bearish markets today
Following a Friday-Monday double down in the S&P, traders must acknowledge the bearish implication. That was followed by another down yesterday and, except for the afternoon session in Shanghai, today will start on a very weak note. If the selling persists without any correction attempt today, the warning I gave in the WIR will have been important. Traders are nervous; the excessive hype over earnings "surprises" did little to boost their confidence. Profit-taking is expected after a run-up of the magnitude the S&P had since early March.
In the wrap-up to the last WIR, I opined: "I do not believe the coming market pull-back will be all that serious – probably down to maybe 900 on the S&P, which would be about -16-17% only if it should happen from this level. I think it would be quick and dirty and then recover fairly quickly as well before going higher."
That magnitude would be a typical intermediate-term correction in an ongoing Bull market. The losses will be massive to long-term oriented traders only if you sell too late and then miss the subsequent rally.
Taking a walk on the bear side> SRS/QID for a spin> 10.18/22.90
20% of allocations to open.
Re: Can't say I'm wise enuf to know what part of October we ...
In honor of cheapy, who has a 20x ultra-sense for crashes.
Re: Taking a walk on the bear side> SRS/QID for a spin> ...
2nd ave
comin along for the ride - qid 22.88 - wheres ur stop?
Re: Taking a walk on the bear side> SRS/QID for a spin> ...
a little unsure about the srs - yes real estate weak, but what about all the talk about extension of the 8,000 $ expansion of who qualifies
Re: Can't say I'm wise enuf to know what part of October we ...
I panic way too easily, I'm afraid. But it saved my butt last year, I have to say, because when the miners were selling for pennies, I think i was the only one around with cash willing at that point to just say the heck with it all and buy.
I really don't know what to think, but I got furious this am at myself, which is usually when I dump and get within a penny or two of the lows taking losses.
I'm just lucky I have next to nothing in the way of stocks at the moment. The Fed seems perfectly able to manipulate the market whatever way it wants on any given day, so I'm getting upset to the point where I'm no longer willing to try, and just going to put every last cent not needed in next few years into physical metal and let them play their game till the world finally says NADA MAS and sends the dollar to the dustbin of history with all the other confetti currencies that preceded it.
Re: Bearish markets today
Just want you to know we appreciate your WIR & daily comments, as well as the feelings/comments of others. Definitely want to avoid massive losses. Have been following bsi87's short RSI's lately as well. Overall, I get the sense that HB&B is setting everyone up for a 4th qtr hit.
FD: 95% cash waiting for prices; 5% short large caps
Speaking of Cycles...
Last night I toyed around putting this chart together based on an article I read last week. It talked about Chris Carolan discovery of a Fibonacci/lunar relation between 1929 and 1987 which he documented it in his book “The Spiral Calendar”. In it "he identified 4 dates in 1929 that reappeared near exactly (within the projection measurement error of 1 day) in 1987."
So here is my graph [DO NOT TRADE OFF THIS]
http://tinyurl.com/yg8bmkm
Article
http://tinyurl.com/ykwvsmu
Re: Speaking of Cycles...
and this too you may find interesting. This writer compares the Dow Transports with an overlaid of the Nasdaq in 1987.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14811.htm
Re: Speaking of Cycles...
Last one I pormise.... :-) Today must be cycle day. This was a post a few mins ago by a trader friend of mine "Springheel_Jack".
~~~~~~~~~~
One of the most interesting charts that I have seen in recent weeks is Joe8888's 41 day pivot cycle chart, and I have recreated this chart and looked closely at it this morning:
http://tinyurl.com/yhcsdtw
To fit it best to the last few months I defined the cycle as 41 trading days, followed by a pivot date on the following day, and then the 41 trading day count begins again. This isn't perfect as I have missed a couple of public holidays, but it is pretty close.
On that basis we appear to be 36 days into the current cycle, with the next pivot date on Wednesday 4th November. if we are rallying cleanly, or have levelled off after an advance, into the close of Tuesday 3rd November then it will be a pivot high, suggesting that the bears will dominate the next cycle. if we continue falling into that date, or have levelled off after a decline, then it will be a pivot low, suggesting that the bulls will dominate the next cycle.
The cycle may stop working at any time of course, but if it still applies, then this will be an interesting tell for the next few weeks.
Was the rally from march a new bull or correction?
That is a rhetorical question you have to decide on for yourself while looking at all data points and prices.
It's no secret i have been building short positions through options lately on the spikes. But today I am going shopping for bargain basement call options on QLD w/Nov expiry. This is for protection/insurance. If the selling becomes panicky today, there may be bargains to be had.
my opinion is this parabolic rally since March was a correction, not a new bull. But I can easily be wrong. so I have to now prepare for my worst case exit strategy. if a higher high presents itself on strong volume, the QLD calls I potentially buy today will appreciate, giving me cushion to scale out of my short positions I built up via call options on inverse etfs.
Not advice, just thinking out loud.
Watching: lower high or higher high? Banks, Nasdaq, Volume, USD, S&P 1050 support, 20 & 50dma, histogram slope changes
MBA Purchase Applications
Released on 10/28/2009 7:00:00 AM For wk10/23, 2009
Purchase Index -
Prior W/W Change -7.6 %
Actual W/W Change -5.2 %
Highlights
The purchase index fell 5.2 percent in the Oct. 23 week while the refinance index dropped 16.2 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association offered no commentary to explain the steep drops. Mortgage rates were mixed in the week with 30-year fixed loans down 3 basis points to an anverage 5.04 percent. New home sales will be posted at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Durable Goods Orders
Released on 10/28/2009 8:30:00 AM For September, 2009
Prior
New Orders - M/M change -2.4 %
Ex-transportation - M/M 0.0 %
Consensus
New Orders - M/M change 1.5 %
Consensus Range
New Orders - M/M change -0.8 % to 2.5 %
Actual
New Orders - M/M change 1.0 %
Ex-transportation - 0.9 %
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Durable goods orders in August dropped a revised 2.6, after a 4.8 percent surge in July. But excluding the transportation component, new durables orders were unchanged, following a 0.9 percent boost in July. The latest drop in new orders was led by transportation, which fell 9.3 percent and largely reflected a huge fall in nondefense aircraft orders. Otherwise, new orders were mixed.
Vad - Your comment, yesterday
Re: CNBC - Fallen and it can't get up!
Submitted by Vadym Graifer (587 comments) on Tue, 10/27/2009 - 21:41 #50657 (in reply to #50646)
Vad - Your comment, yesterday, in response to my posting about CNBC is well documented and presented. I agree that the manner in which statistics are presented can intentionally stir, or placate, the emotions of a viewer. Perhaps, together, we have presented both sides to this issue?
In such cases, one might suggest that it could be beneficial to look around in one's own environment for supportive evidence to assist in determining which side of these statistical presentations might possibly have more validity. For example, one might look here at the content of past postings about CNBC in order to estimate in total a validity.
I suspect that one might find that, at least on this site, there is an indication of possibly real and growing dissatisfaction among posters with the reporting of CNBC of financial news. Perhaps, CNBC's audience really is melting away? In any case, the decision of the sponsors will be final.
Thanks for the comment.
spot
Re: Taking a walk on the bear side> SRS/QID for a spin> ...
ike- I just think we go down. And I know I may be wrong.
My stops are mental, and work like this:
(a) If I'm watching a position, and start 'hoping' it recovers, I exit. I can't trade on the basis of hope.
(b) If a position goes against me to the point where I think "An 'x'-percent decline in the portfolio is not going to sound good" at the dinner table, I exit.
And it's probably unnecessary to remind you that I use small position sizes as a backstop.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
INTC - Downgraded to Hold @ Roth Capital. PT Lowered from $33 to $20
TGT - Upgraded to Buy @ Citigroup. PT Raised from $44 to $61
Did QID just spike to 23.15?
...
qid
whoa - what a spike - what happened?
intel downgrade?
Apollo group (APOL) down 15% pre market
Something about their accounting.
no position.
The SPX "Rally"
Re. the SPX "rally" this year, that's only in USD (wooden nickels). Here is the performance of the SPX this year in other currencies:
in USD: +14.12%
in Euros: +6.8%
in CAD: +0.4%
in AUD: -12.8%
in BRZ: -19.7%
All an illusion to keep the masses happy? While at the same time their houses actually drop.
Live charts of this at http://nexalogic.com/spx.html
(and the same thing for gold: http://nexalogic.com/gold.html, up in USD and Euros only)
qid
looked at time and sales - looks like someone put in a 5000 mkt order that the animals took advantage of
Re: Did QID just spike to 23.15?/ OFF 23.05/ Back ON 22.90
...
Re: Did QID just spike to 23.15?/ OFF 23.05/ Back ON 22.90
good speed - way to work it
Re: Apollo group (APOL) down 15% pre market
accounting irregularity = SELL
TYP/FXP- No quotes on Fidelity platform?
"Foreign Exchange quotes are not available on Fidelity.com"
Since when?
Cara 100 Update
SNDK - Downgraded to Neutral @ Government Sachs. Valuation Call.
Re: Bearish markets today
4ever,
If we have a very weak open today, there could be an afternoon correction and attempt to rally. Watch the $USD and $SILVER at that point.
The point is that short-term cycles are not 4ever. There can only be so many down (or up) days in a row before traders will find good reasons to buy against weakness or sell into strength. That's the function of the market.
As stocks sell off, there will be a rally in the $USD. But how far up the Dollar can go or stocks to drop is debatable. Set a target in your mind based on recent history (highs and lows), but don't fix your mind to it. The market is a dance; try to go with the flow.
A $USD above 77.5 would be an upside break-out that will bring in lots of sellers. If the intermediate-term cycle bottom happens to be 900 on the S&P, where might the $USD be at that point? 80? 81?
Longer term though, can it hold those levels, or will Louise Yamada be right and we'll sooner or later see the Dollar at 60. If so, there will be a much higher S&P and precious metals prices and oil prices. Ultimately, I am betting she is right, bearing in mind that at some point a falling Dollar will no longer lift equity or bond prices because the next phase in the economy will be inflation and higher interest rates.
http://www.lyadvisors.com/
http://tinyurl.com/yhat8x3
The important point to all of this is to me that all of you are now focused on market inter-relationships and you are seeking to understand the causal factors in price trends and cycles. In your personal learning, you are so far above the Random Walk academic nonsense that you now call those people clowns, as they should be called. Those people think they could impose their idiotic theories on the capital markets but prices are driven by laws of nature, which are anything but random. If anybody believes in 'random', I recommend they go to a casino and gamble. But with capital markets there are capital flows in and out based on drivers that we can study.
Re: TYP/FXP- No quotes on Fidelity platform?
2nd - im on fidelity - had trouble with wome quotes this morning - im getting those -typ & fxp now - something is up with their quotes
Re: Vad - Your comment, yesterday
Spot,
of course it's possible, and don't get me wrong- I have no particular warm feelings for CNBC. I just don't like false arguments being used to support the cause, and those guys seem to do it regularly, whatever the cause is. It does nothing but clouds reality and eventually hurts the cause.
"Goldman Reduces Third-Quarter GDP Forecast to 2.7% from 3.0"
that was a headline story this am from you know who.
Yet 2 days ago this article on Bloomberg stated the consensus was 3.2.
http://tinyurl.com/yfgdxlm
thought that was interesting.
Comments
re:seasonality trades
Like all tools, tools like seasonality work till they don't. If one had bought the SPX, he would have watched it go from about 1000 in late Oct to 675 in March, sold in May around 950-975 and watched it go up in the unfavorable time to 1100. With all the games being played and capital injections, I'm less than confident about this type of trade.
ST I'm thinking the big boys are going to try to gun the markets up again in the last few trading days of this month and the first few trading days of next month to suck in IRA/pension monies. THEN they'll kick the chair out from under. I still think the March lows will be retested and will fail but a very strong bottom will be formed like Doug Kass's generational low.
But we'll know in the fullness of time, my opinions are worth what the reader paid for, and we always have to trade what we see, not what we believe.
SRS-> to 40% @ 9.89
...
Plan today
(Bill)In the wrap-up to the last WIR, I opined: "I do not believe the coming market pull-back will be all that serious – probably down to maybe 900 on the S&P, which would be about -16-17% only if it should happen from this level. I think it would be quick and dirty and then recover fairly quickly as well before going higher."
That magnitude would be a typical intermediate-term correction in an ongoing Bull market. The losses will be massive to long-term oriented traders only if you sell too late and then miss the subsequent rally.
Thanks Bill for another great Wir. I read every single one and you always unscramble things by putting the big picture in perspective. It helps me start my day level headed and calm.
grmn is opening lowered 6.83 percent lower.
I will be taking into consideration your points in seasonal buying as things turn south.
vb
Re: SRS-> to 40% @ 9.89/ Taking the 9.89 buy OFF @ 10.02
...
Durable Goods Orders fell short of expectations
Highlights
According to the latest durable goods report for September, manufacturing is still on track for a moderate recovery. Durable goods orders in rebounded 1.0 percent, after a 2.6 percent drop in August and a 4.8 percent surge in July. However, September's boost was below the market forecast for a 1.5 percent increase. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders posted a 0.9 percent boost, following a downwardly revised 0.4 percent dip in August and 0.9 percent advance in July. Overall, the gains in September indicate forward momentum for manufacturing-especially in the context of earlier strong increases mixed with occasional dips.
The rebound in new orders was led by machinery which surged a monthly 7.9 percent, followed by a 1.1 percent rebound in transportation equipment. Transportation was boosted by a rebound in defense aircraft, up 12.5 percent, as motor vehicles and nondefense aircraft slipped 0.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. Primary metals advanced 0.3 percent while fabricated metals were flat. Weakness was seen in electrical equipment, down 0.9 percent; computers & electronics, down 0.2 percent; and "all other durables," down 1.4 percent.
Businesses may be investing in equipment more in coming months as orders for nondefense capital goods rebounded 2.5 percent in September, following a drop of 7.7 percent the month before and a 7.0 percent boost in July.
Year-on-year, overall new orders for durable goods improved to minus 19.6 percent in September from down 20.4 percent the previous month. Excluding transportation, new durables orders rose to minus 16.9 percent from down 19.2 percent in August.
While today's report shows durables manufacturing on a moderate uptrend, equities may not like the numbers as the headline figure fell short of expectations. Nonetheless, manufacturing appears to be doing its part to keep the recovery going-even with less of a contribution from autos going forward.
Re: Comments
bsi87
I agree the comments in your second paragraph.
HIG
bought a bunch at $23.90. Again, this is a longer term trade for me and I think this will be up in the 40's within a year. I like the timing on this trade given its oversold condition, near support and down 20% from recent highs.
LNC reports after the bell today and I noticed a lot of calls being bought in that name yesterday. All insurers have been doing quite well this earnings season (see TRV, CB, etc)
Re: HIG
HI Team,
I like this one too and will be scaling in over the next couple of days. Thanks for bringing this one up, I followed you in a couple of months ago and made decent return quickly.
Also, I might snag BEE if it goes under 1.20
vb
Cara 100 Update (Final)
EXC - estimates, target boosted at Government Sachs. EXC estimates were raised through 2012. Company is cutting costs. Buy rating and new $64 price target.
The GMAC $2.8B more is now potentially $5.6B more
what a joke. the financials will break once again. Thx to commercial, residential, and over leveraging part 2
New Home Sales below expectation
Released on 10/28/2009 10:00:00 AM For September, 2009
Prior 429 K
Consensus 440 K
Consensus Range 430 K to 450 K
Actual 402 K
EEV
out at 13.36 which is yesterday's close + 10 day ATR for a small gain. Raising cash to reload at lower levels.
Do your own homework.
SRS- OFF @ 10.25
Will look for reentry point.
QID- OFF@ 23.04
Will look to reenter.
Re: HIG
Vanilla,
I think some of those smaller REITs could do well but some could definitely go out of business. When we all bought BEE it was primarily because of momentum. The momentum has faded and the focus is now on debt loads I believe.
Solar picture heating up per CS
S. Kumar Update from Anaheim: Unusual strength into the off-season
• Bottom line. Solar end-demand continues to improve, since we last reported from Hamburg in late September due to sustained high levels of demand in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. Takeaways are broadly positive for the solar group. We think FSLR should be able report results much higher than consensus tonight, and could likely serve as a positive catalyst for Chinese solar stocks as well. While we still think FSLR earnings need to reset to lower levels to account for potential margin compression, it may be unlikely we get the reset after tonight's earnings. Generally, cell companies are running at full utilizations, but TSL and CSIQ appear best positioned among Chinese solar companies. Datapoints were a bit more cautious for SOL and ENER. We have listed the top 10 datapoints from Anaheim.
• 1. Q4 panel volumes looking better. Q4 volumes are now tracking flat q/q even for companies like STP/YGE, which only a few weeks ago were looking at 10-30% q/q volume declines in late August. We are more confident on our 30-40% q/q growth for companies like TSL.
• 2. Q4 panel pricing also better. Surprisingly, for some companies, Q4 pricing is looking UP q/q in dollar terms due to strength in Euro and a front-end loaded Q4 panel pricing. On the margin, commentary from YGE was most changed in the positive direction over the last 6-8 weeks, but tone was bullish from several Asian companies. SPWRA's downward estimate revision in 4Q09 may be a bit at odds with strength we think is seen by Asian solar companies.
• 3. Q1 also starting to look better. Perhaps the most important takeaway was that not just Q4, but even Q1 is starting to look better for solar companies. For example, it now appears that volumes may be flat q/q for CSIQ and YGE; and even for TSL which is having a 30%+ q/q growth in 4Q09, volumes may not be down much more than 15% q/q in 1Q10. In addition, pricing declines could be better than the 10% q/q in 1Q10.
• 4.Panel spot prices rising, and FSLR is sold out in 2009 (?) An industry source close to FSLR's distribution channel noted that there is easily additional demand (say 20+ MW) of panels from FSLR, but volumes are not available as FSLR is "sold out" in 2010. Moreover, spot prices of c-Si solar panels have increased from E1.3/watt in early Q3 to about E1.6-E1.65/watt; FSLR spot prices are also closer to the E1.6/watt levels. Therefore, although our FSLR 2H09 EPS is well above consensus and high on the street, we are sticking with our estimates into the call.
• 5. Poly prices still declining. Despite a clearly improving panel demand environment, companies such as GCL, which were selling poly at $60-$70/kg a couple of months ago, likely have seen pricing drop to $55-$58/kg levels in the last 6 weeks. We continue to think that poly prices will decline to $40-$50/kg levels by mid-2010.
• 6. Wafer prices also declining. Wafer prices were likely ~87c/watt, but are set to decline to 84c/watt in 4Q09, and are even available at 80c/watt in the spot market. Wafer pricing remains weak, and this could limit gross margins for SOL to ~5% levels in 3Q and 4Q. SOL appears to have an added near term issue in that high cost poly inventory is still not fully burnt off in 4Q09, which is impacting gross margins. However, SOL margins may improve in 1H10.
• 7. Italy end demand accelerating. We are currently estimating Italy solar demand to be 500MW in CY09 and 750MW in CY10. However, it appears that end-demand could track higher to 750MW in CY09, and potentially as high as 1.5GW in 2010 based on some installer checks. Note that Italy will have a 14-month grace period after the cumulative installations hit 1.2GW (which should happen in 1H10). IRRs in certain parts of Italy are approaching 20%, hence there is very strong demand in Italy for panels.
• 8. German end demand remains strong. Except TSL which has strong non-German exposure, Germany has likely grown to 40-50% of total demand for other companies like YGE and CSIQ. Apprehension on future tariff cuts is causing a strong pull-in of demand in Germany.
• 9. Inverter lead times stretching out. Inverters have emerged as a new bottleneck for solar systems. Inverters from SMA are apparently now not available for 20+ weeks (that is well into 2010, beyond Feb'10).
• 10. ENER, SOL trends weak; LDK mixed. SOL is likely to have low gross margins in Q3 and Q4 due to weak wafer pricing and high cost inventories. ENER is unlikely to show similar strength in 2H09 demand as it is not tied to similar end markets as c-Si. LDK had a positive pre-announcement, but appears that poly plant is not ramping as quickly as expected a few months ago.
Re: HIG
FYI - someone just bought 2,000 $25 November call options on HIG...
TZA
sell limit 13.55
yesterday's close + 10 day atr (12.77+.78)
want to be net long (as possible) by end of Thursday, 10/30.
Man this is one jiggy tape.
As Harrison would say.
fidelity & etf
just got an alert that fidelity is having problems with quotes and trading of etf's - you should call if you need help
Re: HIG
that also implies someone just sold those contracts too. :)
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Released on 10/28/2009 10:30:00 AM For wk10/23, 2009
Prior Crude oil inventories (weekly change) 1.3 M barrels
Actual Crude oil inventories (weekly change) 0.8 M barrels
Re: Solar picture heating up per CS
Interesting.
Who would have thought that in the (very) short term ... long Solar, short Oil would be the "public intervention / private deflation" play
Still unable to get quotes for FXP/TYP on Fidelity
...
A lot can happen in the middle of nowhere
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has just reported that unemployment rates were higher in September than a year earlier in 371 of the 372 metropolitan areas and lower in 1 area.
El Centro, Calif., and Yuma, Ariz., recorded the highest unemployment rates, 30.1 and 24.2%,respectively.
Bismarck, N.D., registered the lowest unemployment rate in September, 2.9%, followed by Fargo, N.D.-Minn., 3.7%. A lot can happen in the middle of nowhere.
SAP -8% Tech giant
AIB -11% irish banks going down
GSK -1% H1N1 profits beats estimates, stock drops...
Re: Speaking of Cycles...
Some seasonal charts here that I like to peruse occasionally,might be of interest to some of us students of the market,in fact I made myself a short list for each month of the year,buys and sells as a reference .The charts cover futures ,metals,indices,volatility ,currencies,weather, temperature ,intraday index movements.
http://tinyurl.com/ykoagfe
Anyone looking at SLW?
...
Breaking to the downside!
...
QID @ 23.15
...
Re: QID @ 23.15
23.30
Re: QID @ 23.15/ OFF 23.35
...
Re: Anyone looking at SLW?
too busy staring at the FAZ and SRS I bought after hours last night. wow. even I am shocked. Also - shorted MSFT earlier this morn...
Window shopping on QLD calls
looking for desperate sellers.
Hello 50 day moving avg
BEE
Team, thanks for the heads up on BEE.
By the way, CA is so broke that they can't pay unemployment benefits. The backlog of claims has risen to 100,000. Many of these people are waiting 6 months on longer for benefits. The system here is crumbling. Checks are being mailed out by mistake to employed people! Other people are not receiving their checks. The EDD doesn't answer the phone or email so you have to write to them via snail mail. Go to the health club mid week and the place is packed. Drive down 280 to San Jose at 10 AM monday and there it looks like holiday traffic.
Estimates are real estate in some areas (nv and fl) will drop another 30%.
Where is CA going to get the Money to pay all these unemployed people??
From the FED??????????
vb
Re: QID @ 23.15
ike- I think you're going to vastly outperform me simply by waiting.
Re: Anyone looking at SLW?
Don't stare too long, man.
Re: TZA
out.
Re: HIG
ahhh very true NYU. Looks like another "trade" of 1800 options went through on the $25 Nov Calls.
Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
...
TNA @ 39.02
...
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
Note :
TSX 13.30 -0.55 -3.97% 540,929
NY 12.38 -0.54 -4.18% 602,600
Levels/10 day ATR
Naz 10 day ATR is 33.84 so it has almost hit that in the first 1.5 hours of trading and is approaching the 50 DEMA at 2083.87.
SPX 10 day ATR is 15.82. 50 DEMA is 1047.25.
Volume pick-up
Market Internals update at 11:00amET
- NYSE volume 440M shares, about 23% above its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 4.5:1.
- NASDAQ volume 850M shares, about 16% above its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 3.1:1.
- VIX index +5.5% to just over 26.00
Re: TNA @ 39.02/ OFF 39.17, Back ON 39.06
...
Re: TNA @ 39.02/ OFF 39.17, Back ON 39.06/ OFF 39.20
...
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
Bought SLW :TSX @ 13.34 trend appears to be reversing, "trade with the trend"
"Too Big Too Fail" Bill Unveiled By Treasury Department
The Treasury Department and the House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank (D - Mass.) last night unveiled a sweeping new bill that attempts to rein in "too big to fail" financial institutions. The proposed legislation, its authors argue, would end the era of taxpayer bailouts for failed firms.
In essence, as the blog Volatility put it, the bill would force large banks and other financial firms to contribute to a "financial superfund," so that they, instead of taxpayers, would foot the bill for the failure of immense institutions. Here's more on the proposed cost-shifting from House Financial Services Committee's website
http://bit.ly/w9E0Z
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
Now at 13.37
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
Now at 13.37 TSX
Re: In erratic countries like Venezuela--please read Otto
Luggie, Jock - If investing/trading S. America you would be well advised to read 'Otto' on IKN News (http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/). He is, in my opinion, the Bill Cara of mining stocks -- relentless, careful, experienced, fundamentally based, a person of integrity and great honesty. He, like Bill, can be trusted -- unlike so many in the mining casino (esp. those on the tsx.v). He focuses on those in S. America most of which are listed either on the tsx.v or the aussie markets. For my money, if Otto doesn't like it, I don't go near it. fwiw.
s
TNA @ 39.39
...
Re: HIG
Ok I don't really know if this is bullish or not but the volume in the HIG $25 November calls is very high. It's now almost double the daily average, for what it's worth...
Re: Volume pick-up
Vad,
This morning I found that on many calls I have sold out into March, June the prices dropped like a rock even though the underlying hadn't moved this morning.
We're talking 20-30%
So I am a happy camper (since I sold the calls). But sorta surprised, since the VIX is up (ie volatility is more costly). Which greek would lead to this kind of drop in call pricing?
KGC
approaching capitulation levels.
FD: No position. Long DROOY
Re: Volume pick-up
navid,
I am not an option expert, can't comment much on those calls... this VIX rise and volume increase on a red day is just another bearish sign - piling up to those I pointed out over last week or so.
Overall my working scenario at this point is:
- we got our reversal starting, with all the topping out signs showing up over last week or two;
- small bounce is about to begin, within nearest two-three days;
- downtrend will establish itself after this bounce;
- pullback will be more serious than those at the end of Sept and Aug;
- March lows won't be jeopardized, not even close; pullback will bottom out long before that.
- can't tell what's next yet, will have to re-evaluate if/when all this materializes.
Re: TNA @ 39.39/ OFF 39.30
Wrong call.
Re: Volume pick-up
Vad- Appreciate the sharing.
Re: TNA @ 39.39/ OFF 39.30/ How many wrong turns can you
make and still be right?
I need to give up the day trading.
Reminds of what Jack Nicholson once said about the PC- 'How can anyone expect to get anything done?' And threw it out the window. Won't bother telling you what his distraction was.
Breakdown/Double Top on IYT
SPY trading down to the 50 day as expected. But along with the dollar breaking its trendline yesterday IYT looks like a double top and it has already broken its 50 day (http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/10/iyt-transpo...). I'm waiting for the GDP number tomorrow but the evidence is mounting for the bearish case. I'm assuming SPY holds the 50 day today and that GDP tomorrow will either bounce it or break it.
Energy Conversion Devices Rolls Out UNI-SOLAR PowerTilt
Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ECD), a global manufacturer of thin-film flexible solar laminate products for the building-integrated and commercial rooftop markets, has introduced its new UNI-SOLAR PowerTilt Solar Roof system, which will be manufactured for the building applied photovoltaic market.
The UNI-SOLAR PowerTilt will be available in 136 W or 144 W per panel. According to the company, the system is ideal for low-load bearing roofs, can be installed without costly structural roof reinforcements, and is glass-free and encapsulated in UV-stabilized, weather-resistant polymers. It holds up against high winds, hail and impacts, and comes with a 25-year limited power warranty, ECD adds
http://bit.ly/24HDKP
qid
opened this morning with 2nd ave at 22.88 - out at 23.35 - nice job 2nd ave - back in at 23.19???
qid
guess i was a little early - still, better to leave some money on the table then to book a loss
Re: In erratic countries like Venezuela--please read Otto
Salty -
I agree that Otto's http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/ IS good, because he has lived and worked in S.America for 10 years, speaks Spanish, and reads Portuguese. His paid weekly has been well worth the price too. He's good on judging managements (for competence and shareholder-friendliness) good at financial modeling of small and near-producers, and he has a good informal network of industry contacts.
He concentrates on, and is best at, covering S. America. His one Aussie listing I know of is TRY (an excellent call) which has two important projects in S. America. He's quite positive on Rusoro, knows the CEO, and also points out that US media are so biased that they can't see straight regarding Venezuela or Bolivia. He also points out that US media give Colombia a free pass. He is the ONLY commentator I've come across who pointed out that the properties of Ventana Gold (VEN.V) sit right in a FARC controlled region.
Also, many of the newsletters which cover juniors routinely take stock or options or ad fees in return for coverage. They often admit as much in their fine print. Give me a break! Otto has had ads for only 2 companies he covers, well after he recommended them, and with his relationship fully disclosed.
Finally, unlike other letters, he always admits his mistakes - which are not very many.
Re: Comments
Aloha,
Me too. Thought QID was real because so removed from direct company control(inverse and index related) or bank held, that I am unsure,but I watched it like a hawk for 3 -4 days. IMHO it didn't move the way it should. The jumps didn't come when they should have or not at all.
Then periods of low/ bid ask like it was being accumalated with no price movement.
No loss but little gain over the 4 days due to stops thank you Bill.
SPX daily RSI at 30
Pretty much every time the SPX daily RSI hits 30, it has rallied off that level for the past six months. Anyone feeling ready to buy the dip?
EDIT: FWIW I got one ES contract there at 1045.
Kinross
Just opened up a position in Kinross @ 19.34 CAD for a day trade.
GDX looking cheapest relative to GLD than it has since 9/1/09 by my calculations. Still weary that the broad markets may continue down though so waiting for more certainty to put any long-term capital back in the miners (recently sold out at GDX $47.50).
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
Man, 2nd I am amazed at your quickness. See attached screen capture. #1 is when you pointed out SLW. #2 is the time span it took me to read, and graph the dropping trendlines,thats when I was thinking about buying. Then I saw the divergence. That took me long enough to see it break the trendline and by that time you were already OUT! And I like SLW.
Thank you, Bill.
I may actually be learning something here, thank you. It has taken several 2x4's. I was thinking of cashing it in and returning to the herd with the rest of the sheeple. I am NOT up ytd. But it is some consolation to learn whats comfortable for me and what I was doing that many voices here say DO NOT DO!
Thank you Vad, Bev, bsi and actually all posters who help shape this community.
Peace from North Puget Sound
PS now I see that SLW breaking to the up
Van Tharp on what kinds of markets since 1950
In a rather good post on how to become a better trader, Van Tharp says:
"You have to know what kind of market we are in:
• Up volatile (11%)
• Up quiet (19%)
• Sideways volatile (20%)
• Sideways quiet (38%)
• Down volatile (10%)
• Down quiet (2%)
These are the six market types and the percentage of time we’ve been in them (rolling 13 week windows) since about 1950. Down quiet markets very seldom occur (about 2% of the time), but the other five market types do occur often enough that you need to be able to find something that works profitably when it does happen."
He advocates developing several trading approaches to conform to the different market types:
http://www.traderplanet.com/newsletter_articles/vi...
(tip of the hat to thekirkreport.com for finding this jewel)
CIT Additional $4.5 Billion in Financing Through Expansion ...
of Existing Secured Credit Facility
http://bit.ly/3y4I8g
Does it feel like everyone is grabbing onto a chair yet?
AAPL
Bought some at $193.3.
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
Actually, I haven't exited SLW yet. Should have.
Re: Kinross
On @ $19.34 CAD/ Off @$19.71 CAD
Re: qid
ike- I'm just thankful we banked some coin today. Can't ask for much more in a ping-pong market.
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
Hola 2nd, maybe that was a good thing. Read Vad's comments on the "Bounce" effect. I nelieve that we owe Vad a bottle of single malt.
Allen
Re: Volume pick-up
Thanks you for the roadmap...it helps to contrast/compare my thoughts with your thoughts.
Vad's comments on the bounce effect
- small bounce is about to begin, within nearest two-three days;
Everything Vad says seems to come to pass.
The market is bouncing so much again that I'm afraid to stay longer than 24 hors, usually less,
example : SLW a good company as opposed to ABX, Munk's minions make me uncomfortable.
Glad that I forgot to put a stop on SLW
covering GS
I'm covering the GS short I put on yesterday. I also read a really interesting article from Todd Harrison on the future of hedge funds: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-the-anger-t...
Re: CIT Additional $4.5 Billion in Financing Through ...
Chairs, huh, they are not providing enough stability for what I have been taking lately!
gdp setup
2nd ave -
ok - whats the play for overnight? GDP in morning - goldman shaved their expectation number - what if it's worse than expected, what if its better - what will be effected most, and least? industrials? retail? housing? oil? basic materials?
who has some insight?
Re: Vad's comments on the bounce effect
Everything Vad says seems to come to pass
allen- Someday they'll remove the veil behind which sits the man behind the man behind The Man that runs the Fed, and it will reveal a Russian guy with a beard. Throwing back a tumbler of single malt, neat.
Re: gdp setup
who has some insight?
I have to say, ike, it's not me.
The easy play might be to go long on a sharp spike down into the close?
Re: Vad's comments on the bounce effect
Good one, 2nd
http://www.nasdaqscalper.com/about.html
Re: gdp setup/ Like Ike
Ike- Aren't you the one who called a crash today? And I had the feeling you were right?
No faith, man. We should have played it like Ike called it.
Re: gdp setup
oil is weak - think its in a new trend - their was a build in doe inventories that was unexpected - overnight markets might keep that trend going - looking for an entry in uco maybe - also watching that qid again, but it wont break down (up) below 23.40 - financials weak also - faz up 6% - if that will squeak down a little, it may also be a candidate
Wouldn't positive print GDP be the last hoorah ?
This isnt based on anything but posturing, but wouldn't a better than expected GDP number be a bear-skewer? One last Goldman laugh before they clear the floor?
We've definitely hit some old resistance (early October) levels right now.
Re: gdp setup/ Like Ike/ cheapy called it
Sorry, just checked. I had the feeling cheapy had it right.
Re: gdp setup/ Like Ike/ cheapy called it
way to go cheapy - things getting uglier out there - maybe everyone going short? selling pressure seems to be there, which makes me nervous as the masses are usually wrong - 2nd, whats the "surprise" factor and what sector would fare best in a gdp beat? interest rates? consumer discretionary? NYU, u got any insight? bill? anybody? bueller? bueller?
TNA @ 38.01
I consider this a high-risk trade.
Re: gdp setup/ Like Ike/ cheapy called it
I have to mention again, SPX RSI is at 30. If we go down from here, now that's going to be some real drama. I'm betting tomorrow is up. I got stopped out on my ES (SPX future) but I'm going to rebuy depending on what that pesky dollar does. We might have one more breakout left in the old girl today, which would send SPX down a little bit more before the close.
So if its up tomorrow, that means we close down tonight, for maximum surprise?
Re: gdp setup
You're talking about fine-tuning. I would be happy just to get broad market direction right.
Is it safe to say the trend has reversed? Not really. But the absence of dip buyers (so far) makes it hard to go long.
Is there a good reason to hold positions (especially ultrashort positions)going into Thursday?
Re: TNA @ 38.01/ OFF 37.70
Yeah, well that pretty much erases any doubt about ST direction.
Re: gdp setup/ Like Ike/ cheapy called it
your right - its also no surprise that the end of the month is coming and the money managers need to gobble up some longs AND get some higher settles when a vast majority of them close their books on friday - someone is gonna make some money playing this - do you like a recovery in the spx or the dow better? which has less holes?
Re: TNA @ 38.01/ OFF 37.70
What do they call that- going outside to see which way the wind blows?
Re: In erratic countries like Venezuela--please read Otto
jock- you obviously are very aware of his work and didn't need me to recommend him.
s
Ike- A market one can bet on/bet against for longer than a day
That's really what we're looking for.
I can't say it's safe to go short here.
On the other hand, I can't say it's safe to go long.
I'm going to remain mainly in cash/bet small until that changes.
Re: Ike- A market one can bet on/bet against for longer than ...
More like "longer than an hour"
Now , it would be great to hear (see) Vad's comments on this crazy bouncing session. My belief is a .......
Shaking out weak hands v longer-term distribution
Can't help but think the sell-off is exacerbated by longs bailing on recently opened positions.
Distribution is more orderly, and would probably occur on strength.
Re: gdp setup
ike,
I posted my thoughts on gdp this am on my blog. you dont have to wait until tomorrow for those numbers. http://bit.ly/8dl3G.
2nd entry from the top.
Dip buyers finally making a bid
...
Only to be met with more supply
...
Now I feel like I'm calling plays on the field
...
Re: gdp setup
Is there a good reason to hold positions (especially ultrashort positions)going into Thursday?
2nd,
IF GS's call about a lower GDP (2.7%) than what is expected (3.0-3.1% depending on where you look) would tilt the market a little further down in my opinion.
But keep in mind tomorrow morning is 1st time unemployment claims data also. What if it keeps rolling in at 520k-550k? At some point the market is going to realize that this "recovery" is going to be near what is priced in. Doesn't the word "recovery" mean that job losses at least slow down meaningfully?
I am still playing the short side.
GDP, my 2 cents
I read in the last few days, wish I could remember who wrote it, that the GDP figures could be positive as a result of the stimuli being offered. That should kick the tape back in the upward direction for short term.
My plan...an if,then scenario was to go short today if the market opened down and stayed down. I figured this was a day trade due to the GDP news tomorrow. I had already gotten into SRS earlier.I bought TWM as the IWM looked weaker. I got scared out of 90% of my position in TWM at the intraday low and took profit...only to watch it shoot up. sigh. I will sell the remaining 10% and a majority of the SRS in the last hour. And if I repeat that enough times, it may happen. I no longer have enough faith or bullets to hold the ultra etfs too long. If tomorrow and Friday are up days I may sell the longs-mostly slightly underwater pm's. Gold spot has been trending down.
Thats my plan. Not married to it
peace
Re: gdp setup
nyu -
i love it - just bookmarked it and will be watching closely - so your down on the holidays? I agree with your observations - people are either not working or hating their job split between wanting to get out and being thrown out. so which sector would be affected by a slowing gdp most? according to your article i would sumise the overbought retail sector?
Re: gdp setup
learner- I hear you. Just trying to keep the influence of the Fed in mind. They definitely don't want a repeat of last October/November.
Re: gdp setup
I think Hotels. They are an industry that operates on Debt, not cash. So you have all these hotels who rely on consumer travel and business travel, with no cash, leveraged up to their eyeballs, and very little margin for error on the occupancy and occupancy rates.
I dont own hotels and that is simply my observation.
FYI - I just killed the ads on my blog. I am sick of looking at them. not the reason i started it in the 1st place.
Agriculture Notes
*The North Indian monsoon failed in 2009, the worst in 40 years
*The South Indian monsoon brought excessive rain and damage to fields
*Other areas of the world experiencing big weather extremes
*US had late planting due to cold and wet weather
*Cool summer and now cold and wet conditions inhibiting harvest.
*17% of corn harvested vs 46% 5yr average
*30% of beans harvested vs 60% 5yr average
*Lots of propane/gas needed to dry crops and increased threats of damage due to mold
*Many farmers did not use normal fertilizer applications this year and before next years planting, large applications of fertilizer will be required which may be good for fertilizer stocks in 2010.
Prices starting to rise-Chinese have bought 70% of available US soybeans this year
FYI: Fertilizer maker Mosaic, a division of Cargill, is paying a $1.30 special dividend to owners of record
Nov 5
Re: gdp setup
Look at the estimates for some of Friday's releases:
08:30 Personal Income 0.0% cons.
08:30 Personal Spending -0.4% cons.
Since the consumer is 71% of the economy, would a smoking NO CHANGE in monthly income instill confidence in you that the recovery is here. If the S&P were at 800-850, it might, at 1050 not so much. We know the Consumer can't borrow any money. And for giggles, what would happen if that income number came in with a minus sign. You can't shoot a rocket off without any fuel. Food for thought.
UUP volume spike
Look at the volume spike the last 20 minutes on UUP. I think lots of folks were betting on a dollar breakout. Didn't happen - well at least not yet, but I still think its an interesting volume pattern.
EDIT: now that's just not nice. Minutes after I posted, this, the buck broke out. Sigh.
Re: Agriculture Notes
Friend in Central Illinois (land of Corn and Soybeans) said it rained hard yesterday and is supposed to tomorrow also. Too wet to get machinery in the fields, and so wet that if they get a good wind, it will blow plants over. He said some elevators are halting accepting any corn as it is coming in faster than they can dry it as it is so wet. (Corn has to have low moisture content before storage or it spoils).
2nd ave
42 posts out of 142 today so far = 30%
Another big coffee day for 2nd ave.
SRS & FAZ
Got stopped out midday in FAZ - bummer. Still hanging on to SRS...still staring.
MSFT offloaded that short from this AM - booooring.
Re: gdp setup
hotels short - i like it - same for airlines i suppose - dont for get cruise lines - and thats not even taking swine flu into effect - went contra on the trend long ure at 5.16
Microgrids: $2.1B Market By 2015
very interesting.. this article also mentions many different company's and has links...
Microgrids – experimental islands of renewable power – will be a small but growing piece of the smart grid market, Pike Research says.
microgrids – islands of renewable power generation, building energy control systems, and a localized electricity distribution grid that can manage it all, whether connected to the grid at large or not.
Imagine a business park or college campus that generates and stores its own electricity from solar panels, fuel cells, waste heat generators and the like – and then lends that power to a utility to meet demand elsewhere.
Or it can keep itself running during a larger-scale blackout, which is a big plus to the military, which is taking to the microgrid concept in a big way.
While still mainly an experiment, microgrids could grow to be a significant, if still small, portion of the smart grid market. That's according to Pike Research, which projects that microgrids will grow to a $2.1 billion market by 2015, with $7.8 billion invested over that time.
That's a tiny slice of an overall smart grid market of $40 billion with about $210 billion invested through 2015, according to Pike Research's projections, said Clint Wheelock, managing director
http://bit.ly/2dZm6W
Re: Agriculture Notes
Here is a follow up article on the state of agriculture by Ambrose E Pritchard from the Telegraph in London
which compliments my previous post
Food Will Never Be So Cheap Again
http://tinyurl.com/yjtj7st
Re: 2nd ave
Dr. S- That's the problem with University of Michigan/Ann Arbor people. The only two things in life that matter are academics and Big Ten football, and they take both too seriously ;)
Headline on CNBC reads "Recovery: Next Exit" I kid you not
CNBC does not deserve the click traffic.
I have a screenshot on my blog.
http://bit.ly/2R6Vau
Oh and the 1st sector they say will lead is Financial.
Bottom line:Giving cheapy his due/ No way I'm going long tonight
Capital preservation over the possibility of a crash. That pretty much says it all, no?
If you're short, great. If you're long, you're on the high wire.
Did anyone buy the SPY 65 Mar2010 puts a few days ago?
...
SLW capitulation low?
Check the volume spike
SLW
Good entry point $9.67 I won't buy it any higher while it is in freefall. That entry point happens to be the September low.
SLW
Good entry point $9.67 I won't buy it any higher while it is in freefall. That entry point happens to be the September low.
Long HL @ 3.83
They still make a load of silver and have minimal debt. Starter position - willing to add into further weakness. Still largely in cash.
Ike- If you're thinking what I think you're thinking, be happy
Until the ultrahorts came out, there were few things in life that compared to BEING IN CASH WHEN THE MARKET SELLS OFF, no?
Have a tall one anyway.
NCS
anyone watching NCS today? I've been watching and waiting for a few weeks to enter...hmmm
Re: Ike- If you're thinking what I think you're thinking, be ...
thank you 2nd - i owe you one for the qid call - time to celebrate
AAPL has made almost 100% retrace from Oct 19 earnings gap
How long before AMZN?
The Last Treasury Monetization...
"Mark the date: October 29, 2009. It will be characterizied by a drop in futures for a few minutes followed by a rapid and inexplicable pop on no news, courtesy of last ditch attempt by the Fed to "liquify" the market thanks to $1.6 billion devalued portraits of George Washington. And poof, just like that... Treasury purchases are gone (until Bernanke wakes up on the wrong side of the bed and wants to see Dow 36,000)."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/advance-look-last...
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
What was your reasoning, 2nd_ave? You knew QE would continue through tomorrow as the biggest treasury auction in history is well underway and causing a USD rally. Bernanke said he'd stop buying treasuries by the end of Oct. I'd say Friday would be the time to re-enter SLW under $10.
FSLR
Getting crushed in AH.
Re: 2nd ave
"That's the problem with University of Michigan/Ann Arbor people. The only two things in life that matter are academics and Big Ten football, and they take both too seriously ;)"
So true. Cheers.
Re: In erratic countries like Venezuela--please read Otto
Salty, I thought others might be interested in details about Otto.
AIG Straddle
I put on an AIG straddle today...bought $38 Nov puts at $4.8 and then bought the Nov $35 calls at $3.8 right before the close. I'm 2:1 on the puts as I think this will go down and retest the initial high of about $25 from August...
American Airlines, US Airways plan job cuts
Someone forgot to fax the memo about the recovery to the airline's CEOs.
http://bit.ly/23DoqC
"AMR said on Wednesday it will eliminate up to 700 jobs as it downsizes its maintenance and engineering operations.
US Airways plans to cut 1,000 jobs and shift its focus to four key cities and its shuttle service.
"The airlines are taking needed action for a likely weak holiday travel season, especially considering the recent run-up in oil prices," said Morningstar equity analyst Basili Alukos.
"I would not be surprised to see Southwest (Airlines) (NYSE:LUV - News) make similar cuts, since I don't think the firm has cut enough of its labor force," he said. "As for the others, I think more cuts would be prudent."
Re: Trying a little SLW @ 12.39
What was your reasoning, 2nd_ave? You knew QE would continue through tomorrow as the biggest treasury auction in history is well underway and causing a USD rally. Bernanke said he'd stop buying treasuries by the end of Oct. I'd say Friday would be the time to re-enter SLW under $10.
My reasoning was I thought the price would move up.
If I get the chance to buy SLW on Friday under 10, I'll put on my old Michigan sweatshirt this weekend.
HIG
Looks up AH. LNC reported operating earnings of $.84/share vs. $.76/share estimates...looks like HIG is rising in tandem.
Lunch Money
I did it again with SRS,DZZ,DUG this time also, and I bought me some KGC at 18.30 (small position only) planning for a pop tommorrow. I would not put it past those darn manipulators or there/their abouts to jiggle the GDP and/or $USD.
I could be very wrong and will have sold most of my SRS, DUG, etc too early.
I am also playing my favorite long IWEB, which had doubled since I mentioned it on here back a while. This is a BB, so it it risky however.
Nice trading to all.
Edit: set also stops on my KGC, AUY...thanks community...the stops do now allow me some measure of peace of mind.
Re: AAPL
TOF, at 3:32 bought some myself at 192.35. As I was doing it I was hazily wondering why I would go in like this when the market had clearly been trending down, like clockwork, the whole day. My hands overpowered my brain and I'm now in without a shred of evidence that a rebound is imminent. A good example of not trading what I see. Not to say that long term Apple won't be good but, under these conditions, why not wait and risk a slightly higher price vs possibility of more market sell-off.
Re: Lunch Money
TN, I followed your first comments re IWEB into it and was very happily in the green till last thursday my set stop got taken on the low of the day. But I had been raising the stops as it went up. But... From that point Iweb was up 33% on the day and I missed it. I have been watching for a pull back to get back in. That has not happened. If it pulls back, give a shout out. I am trying to get away form the mindset of being long or short. Its tough to do.
Instead I traded TWM today. I see its still going up after hours so, I may have pulled the sell trigger too soon. Tomorrow will tell. I see SRS is down some pennies ah also. got out of that with a 15% gain woo hoo
peace from North Puget Sound
Southwest Sale (Flights start at $25)
just go to their homepage and u will see it
For me, no thanks. I prefer Amtrak or bus for regional travel. but thought I would share.
I am not affiliated with them, and i dont know anyone who works for them or anything like that.
Re: UUP volume spike
I actually prefer to follow UDN. UDN has broken its trend but the 50 day is not to far away at $27.91 (http://www.chartsandcoffee.com/2009/10/weighing-th...).
If this is a real dollar rally, that will be broken as well.
Gold Earnings - GDX/GLD
I was a bit puzzled by the trading in gold miners the last couple days compared to the relatively mild drop we have seen in gold prices this week. It then occured to me that now that we are entering earnings season for the large gold miners, we are beginning to see cases where some large producers are lowering production targets (so far both KGC and AEM have reported production issues and their stocks have taken it on the chin).
But in reality, less production from these large players may be exactly what is keeping the gold price stable above $1,000 for now in the face of a declining equity market and momentarily stabilizing US dollar - the physical market sees less available supply!
With a number of earnings coming the next week or two from the major producers, I think the action should be quite interesting. I've compiled a list of earnings dates for some of the larger producers (may have missed some):
Already reported
kgc - production estimates lowered
aem - production estimates lowered
10/29
abx gfi nem
10/30
ego
11/2
au
11/3
auy
11/4
gg
iag
11/10
gold
11/12
grs
Re: Bottom line:Giving cheapy his due/ No way I'm going long ...
Wish I'd been wrong, but smelled the dollar strength coming again.
Who knows, maybe there is nobody left to sell...
I have to adhere to my mental stops, lest I be swamped by another complete panic like last year. Had I not taken small losses early I wouldn't have had the cash to pile in at the point of lunacy and make this years profits.
FWIW, the price of me buying all the dumps and holding those bottoms yesterday was me dumping for those positions for small losses today. Sorry for the panic I caused on what I sold, but otherwise I'd just be sitting here with a bigger loss.
Government intervention
Just a brief thought that has been irking me the last few days regarding the programs like Cash for Clunkers and First Time Homebuyers.......
One terrible and immoral side effect of these programs is the fact that by seeking to manipulate the markets and pull demand for autos or real estate (from the future) we are doing a very horrible thing to those on the bottom rungs of society - low wage earners or those who have lost low-paying jobs - and in the process magnifying an already terrible income disparity problem.
These are people that can't even take advantage of these incentives because they don't have enough money to purchase such large ticket items - ever. These are people that live frugally and meagerly and are upstanding citizens - many of which served their countries in the past. These same people are now being denied what should be the flipside of an poor economy - affordable prices.
We have payed auto dealers to destroy perfectly functioning used automobiles (in the name of a false veil of environmentalism). Many people can never in their lives afford to purchase a new vehicle - to them a nice used car at a good price is a huge deal. We have subsidized purchases for home buyers - bailing out both buyer and seller - but at the same time we are preventing/delaying a reversion of rental prices for those who will never own.
So the side effect is to punish them by increasing wealth disparity in the name of saving our country. I guess the hard working, upstanding lower class doesn't have strong enough lobby to help them in D.C. Makes me sick to think about how selfish our leadership has become. Had to get that off my chest.
Re: Government intervention
Whats worse is that we apparently only did it to allow the GDP number to be faked higher since 75% of the cars bought as a result were imports.
"Bread and Circus"
The beauty of cash at the crossroads
So what's the ideal position right now?
(a) If the market crashes at the open tomorrow (still an item near the bottom, but no longer at the bottom, of every trader's agenda), then it would be FANTASTIC to be short tonight. Cash would come in a close second- (i) your portfolio will have avoided a serious blow, and (ii) you have the means, should you decide, to buy into weakness. If you're long, then you're seriously wrong.
(b) If the market gaps up at the open tomorrow, then the most likely move for shorts would be to add to existing positions. Holding cash? Hey, it gives you the option to go long or short, depending on the weather. If you're long, you're one lucky dude- but good luck sleeping well tonight.
Put another way, I don't know if the market gaps down, gaps up, or opens flat tomorrow. And it doesn't matter to me.
In the midst of uncertainty (of course, you may not be uncertain, but I am), cash is king. IMO.
Homebuyers Tax Credit
Senators agree to extend tax credit for first-time homebuyers, expanding it to repeat buyers
By Stephen Ohlemacher, Associated Press Writer
On 8:00 pm EDT, Wednesday October 28, 2009
http://tinyurl.com/ygmaqj6
Re: Government intervention
Well said, Billy... Sometimes you can work hard, and ' get ahead ' in life, lots of times, not... I think what is being overlooked by many, is that the wealth destruction today, will cripple the generation of tomorrow... In this I mean, most of the children of the 60's, 70's and 80's had Mothers and Fathers who were usually there to help us during crunch times... Will it be that way in the future, when so many, many incomes are being destabilized ? I am thinking that it will be awfully hard for those that have lived a privileged life to now think in different terms... Used cars, house purchases ( if possible ) that are for only the sq. ft. needed ( not wanted ), and learning not to run to the doctor every time one feels bad.. I've had three teeth pulled instead of a root canal/cap, because I don't have dental, and refuse to pay the $$$ for such.... my grandparents did just fine that way.. Hopefull, good things will come about from a more simple life in the future... then again, take candy away from a baby......
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
2 nd/... I can't understand why a trader would not want to be at least 80% cash every night... Sure, you may miss an Amazon, etc.., but usually, all gaps are filled after proper resistance is hit.. I am not trying to be critical, but the vast Majority of trades I have lost Big money on was from holding overnight... The old saying " Let em' (the market ) have the first 20%, and the last 20%... I'll take the rest in-between " is nevermore true than this year .. best of trades... baz
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
baz- I think the answer would have to be human nature. If one is holding (large positions in) ultra ETFs overnight, it would almost have to be due to greed (or hubris). There have absolutely been many times when, had I gone all-in on the ultralongs or ultrashorts, I would have made serious money simply on the following morning's gap up or down. There have also been many times when the same decision would have cut my portfolio by 1/3. I've seen gamblers in Vegas put it all on one spin/roll/deal. The consequences of doing that with one's retirement account? More like Russian roulette.
Excellent real estate and mortgage info blog
from Fleckenstein tonight... http://mhanson.com/
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
Let em' (the market ) have the first 20%, and the last 20%... I'll take the rest in-between
I agree. The smarter trade today (for me) would have been to wait for the breakdown/breakout. If I had simply allowed the stronger opponent to gain the upper hand before placing my bets, it would have been (a) easier, and (b) more profitable.
Re: Excellent real estate and mortgage info blog
Very good explanation of what is really happening out there.
and, I think we Are in a depression.
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
If one buys using the Triple RSI accumulation/buy mode along with some other indicators and stops, one shouldn't have to be in cash every night.
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
Could you summarize, link to or point to the details of the triple RSI accumulation method for me, please. I get tired of being the chump. I added RSI to my indicators after reading a part of Bill's book recommending it, but I lost the reasoning and methodology because I just look at it on the chart and don't really use it to decide what to do or when like you.
thanks
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
Sorry, but its to easy for the quants to blow down an ' Open ' 15% or more below your stop... Been there, done that !! Capital preservation is my first, second and third rule..
Re: Lunch Money
I will let you know if it pulls back in a serious way. Presently it has been in a range, which Has only rarely been significant enough to grab more than two to three cents and it moves sometimes by 20-25%. They don't have the same obligation to report as NASDAQ listed stocks, but I do know their fiscal year ended 15 SEPT, so they will report this on/about 15 November, which will be aproximately two months.
My personal opinion is that they will report significant revenue and margin increase. The key to me will be projections and growth. It is hard to argue with all the activity they have been alluding to lately, especially the situation regarding utilities just recently released. Today they also released some more news which will effect demand for their product.
One caveat however, they are unproven and they trade on the BB. I did have one company go belly up in the solar panel area, so be careful. Sounds like you are using those stops well...this would be the situation to do that. Also, their RSI is not looking too well as it is coming from 70, if that is applicable to them.
Night all
Re: Excellent real estate and mortgage info blog
On depressions, I have this theory in my head that says they don't end until the excessive debt is wiped out or repaid, and time goes by to where people learn to trust a bit again...
Unfortunately we have a government preventing that from happening, which, if my theory is correct, is why Japan's 20 years of depression have never ended...
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
Cheapy, "....Could you summarize, link to or point to the details of the triple RSI accumulation method for me..."
Just go to the RSI Tool link in the menu at the top of this page, open it and click on the show more info link in the opening par. It will give a pretty good brief explanation, along with some warnings for non-quality stocks and also that it is not to be used in isolation, just another too in the toolbox.
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
Thanks for the assist...
Re: The beauty of cash at the crossroads
Cheapy....after you read the info on rsi, go to the cara archives and select March 2009 for a comparison. Get to the mid march Daily Report by Bill...approx Mar 18th. In his Daily Reports he displays the RSI utility for that date. Check out how many stocks are in the buy signal versus the number there is today. Its a graphic example of how extended this rally is
peace
TNA
buy limit 34.09 (close - 10 day ATR) good for the day.
RSI 7 day is 20 and trading below 20 day BB. Capitulation play coming up?
Do ur own homework.
Off to work.
Senate Lifeline Out There
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/10/senate-lifeline...
Re: Excellent real estate and mortgage info blog
ALOHA!!
Cheapy posted - "Unfortunately we have a government preventing that from happening, which, if my theory is correct, is why Japan's 20 years of depression have never ended..."
PRICE FIXING 101 it is ...
Exactly ... This is why I have been saying on housing ... "Wake me up when prices get down to 1970 prices!"
With the advent of the MBS and the loosey goosey qualifications and the exotic financing vehicles like ARM etc. real estate speculation has been expanded exponentially to people who prior to the bubble could not even qualify for a credit card much less a home.
This is why this is not the Great Depression 2 as only credit based assets have deflated the most. When gas and medical and labor prices deflate like housing prices then say hello to Great Depression #2! I have one other new factor in the false Great Depression #2 hysteria(see below).
Its best to use your five senses on these issues. When you see your electric bill, phone bill, water bill, health insurance, food, and gas costs go up then there is no Depression. For people who did not buy a home or have money in the stock market they have not experienced any financial loses in the form of deflated home prices and mutual fund/401k portfolios, so they have no Great Depression #2 ... no lifestyle changes to speak of. These people are not at the mercy of Goldman Sachs or CountryWide.
Here is something else that rarely gets mentioned which is inflated "tax rates". The following was the very first income tax brackets going back to 1913 when the US FED was created and so was a permanent US income tax. Please note that back in 1913 70% of the population were lucky to have income over $5,000USD per year, so most of America was in the 1% tax bracket and that was reflected on the very first 1040 tax form. In 1938 minimum wage was created and was set at $0.25 per hour.
1913
RATE
----
1% ... $0 - $20K
2% ... 20K - 50K
3% ... 50K - 75K
4% ... 75K - 100K
5% ... 100K - 250K
6% ... 250K - 500K
7% ... 500K -
2009
RATE
----
10% ... $0 - $16,700
15% ... 16,700 - 67,900
25% ... 67,900 - 137,050
28% ... 137,500 - 208,850
33% ... 208,850 - 372,950
35% ... 372,950 -
Now in order to pay for WW1 the minimum and maximum tax rates(%)went up from the original rates of 1913(1% - 7%) to the height of 1918(6% - 77%) yet when the Great Depression started in 1929 after the market crash that year the following year 1930 those rates went down from the 1918 rates of (6% - 77%) down to (1.5% - 25%). Have tax rates for the past two years gone down for the supposed Great Depression #2? The answer is they have not. By the way, this is how you can tell we are having a "real" War(inflation) or a "real" Great Depression.
I will show this and more taxation aspects of our expanded government, as well as the usual ongoing disaster in the spend and debt saga of the US Treasury in this week's REVENUE BREAKDOWN series.
What we are seeing as a basic thesis to expanding government is this. As more "crisis" is created government and more importantly government control increases and WE THE PEOPLE lose more and more Freedom and Liberty. Eventually we become the USSA ... Who benefits most from the destruction of wealth ... the destruction of the Middle Class? Take a wild-d-d-d guess ...
David- How's Vegas?
David- I have this mental picture of you listening to Wayne Newton singing old Frankie Valli songs.
Seriously, if you pomade your hair just right and put on a tux, you could get up on stage in front of screaming Russian teenyboppers. You would just need to learn how to beg the audience (back in the early sixties, pop/R&B singers would get down on one knee, close their eyes, and stretch out one arm when they sang lyrics like 'Pleeease,' or 'Help me,' usually in combination with 'Baby').
Have to hand it to you- three days (and counting) with no computer access. I don't have that kind of self-discipline. In any case, your SRS positions have been kicking ---.
Nobel Peace prize
After all the sarcasm about Obama getting the Nobel and the surreal nature of it all — anyone who has ever heard comedian Steven Wright's dry monotone can picture him saying this...
"I'd kill for a Nobel Peace Prize."
Re: Excellent real estate and mortgage info blog
Kaimu,
Take the stimulas money out of the equation and we are in a depression. There is no hysteria yet since the printing presses are going 24/7 and the media is mis-reporting what is really happening.
At some point, something has to break. By the way, labor prices are deflating in my neighborhood (no bonus or annual raise, less medical coverage). Workers are being given a choice to leave if they don't like it. What kind of choice is quitting to go stand in line for unemployment benefits from a broke state that has to borrow from the FED?
Maybe I am missing something but to me, the handwriting is on the wall.
Bring those Magicians out Pres. Obama and create some Jobs!
vb
USD Carry trade about to unwind?
Since March, if you shorted the dollar and bought assets in non usd, wouldnt that be a perfect marriage?
currency profit
asset appreciate profit
usd short profit
Wouldnt this also produce a fairly large short squeeze on the usd?